Fantasy Baseball Today - Marco Gonzales is THE MAN; SPs Who Are Slowing Down (09/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 22, 2020

Oh, just another eight shutout innings for Marco Gonzales. No big deal. He leads our OMGG Monday standouts (1:35). How is Gonzales getting this done? Jared Walsh continues his home run barrage, this time with a grand slam. Walsh or Nate Lowe in 2021? ... On to news and notes, Shane Bieber was pushed back so he lost his second start this week, Kris Bryant hurt his oblique, and Nolan Arenado has been shut down for the season (9:49). ... Why are Dylan Bundy, Aaron Civale and Dane Dunning slowing down (18:48)? Should it affect how we view them for the 2021 season? ... Jose Ramirez is on fire (25:46)! Should he be drafted ahead of Christian Yelich and/or Cody Bellinger in 2021? ... Is this the best version of Bryce Harper we've ever seen (30:56)? ... Jacob deGrom just struck out 14 but will he win the National League Cy Young (36:54)? Who's his biggest hurdle? ... We have some bullpen notes from Monday as well as some potential future closers to stash in keeper/dynasty leagues (39:29). ... Who is Alejandro Kirk and why should you remember his name (46:55)? ... We wrap things up with To Stream Or Not To Stream for Tuesday's games (53:20). ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our new YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Do people realize how good Marco Gonzalez has been this season? Because I sure haven't. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on a Tuesday, September 22nd. He is Scott White. I am Frank Stamphill. Championship Week is just about in full swing. How goes it, Scott? Do you have any shares of Marco Gonzalez? No shares. No shares. I avoided him in drafts. I thought he was one of the biggest overachievers at the starting pitcher position last year. I was wrong. Let's talk a little bit about Marco Gonzalez in just a little bit here and figure out

how has he been this good? His numbers are truly. insane. But today on the show, we will do some Monday recap. We have some 2021, not really debates. You know, I'm not going to argue Scott on certain things yet. We'll save that for the offseason. But I'll play devil's advocate a little bit. I'll bring up some questions for 2021. Some lessons learned from this season. Have we learned anything? Is there anything that we can apply from 2020 to next season? I don't know. I guess we'll find out. And of course, we have some team name Tuesday, but let's start things off with some oh my goodness gracious standouts from monday oh my good goodness gracious all right marco gonzalez what's going on with this guy eight shutout innings against the houston astros on

on monday with six strikeouts the era is down to three point zero six i did not believe this when i saw it's got his whip entering monday was zero point nine zero again this is marco gonzalez what, if anything, is he doing differently this season that has transformed him into this, I don't know, all of a sudden great fantasy asset? Impeccable control is the main thing. Across his 10 starts, he has issued six walks, which I mean is less than one per inning, obviously. So, yeah, that's made the biggest difference.

His ex-fip is still around four because, you know, he's not, he's not, exactly a ground ball pitcher. His strikeout rate, well, certainly better than last year. That helps his case, too. It's still less than one per inning. The main area where he's thriving is with the control. And it's almost to an unbelievable degree.

I suppose that's why the X-FIP is where it is. But I'm not here to disparage Marco Gonzalez because he is very efficient. I mean, one of the reasons he won 16 games for a very bad Mariners team last year is because he so consistently pitches

deep into games and that has been the case this year too. Among those 10 starts, five have been seven innings or more. We usually use, we talk about six innings or more usually as the standards these days, but half of Gonzalez's starts have been seven innings or more

including five of the past eight. So, I mean, that and throwing strikes is the biggest thing. The strikeout rate, as I mentioned, has gone up a little. I think he has you know, I said he was one of the biggest overachievers at the starting pitcher position last year.

He's overachieved some this year too, but not to the extent that I'm going to be avoiding him in drafts. Look, I don't think he's an early rounder or even a mid-rounder. So maybe I will be depending on where others take him. But I have a more favorable opinion of him now than I did coming into the season. I can at least say that.

Let's see where everybody else stands. hands on him before I say anything more definitive. Yeah, I don't think he's going to be drafted inside the top 40 starting pitchers next year. Maybe that, maybe I'm just crazy, and I don't have a read on this situation at all. He is 10th among starting pitchers and fantasy points per game. Again, this is Marco Gonzalez. He's averaging more fantasy points right now per start than Aaron Nola, Garrett Cole, Denelson Lament, Max Fried.

I mean, these are some bona fide aces that we're talking about in baseball. But for some reason, I just don't think that. people are going to put too much stock into this. Maybe I'm wrong, but I wouldn't draft them inside the top 40 starting pitchers next year. And I guess we'll find out soon enough once we start doing some of these mock drafts where Marco Gonzalez might start to settle in a little bit. But yeah, you mentioned the command of what he's done. Using his fastball more this year, he's throwing it like 46% of the time,

which is the most since 2017. He only pitched 40 innings that year anyway, so it doesn't really make. matter. He throws it 88 miles per hour, but for some reason, it's working. So kudos to Marco Gonzalez and kudos to anyone who either picked him up, drafted him late, and started him all season because he has been fantastic. Scott, a standout from Monday that you would like to highlight? I'm going to go with Jared Walsh of the Angels who hit a grand slam on Monday. Seven home runs and 12 games is what he has now. And only 12 strikeouts all season. That's That's an impressive combination of power and yet control being able to put the bat on the ball.

And that low strikeout rate is the biggest improvement from the nothing contributor we saw last year. He struck out 40% of the time then in about the same number of plate appearances. So Jared Walsh, a guy who hit, oh, I forget the exact number now, 36, 36 home runs in the miners last year and 29 the year before. definitely has some power potential there and he's taking he's having this Luke Voigt kind of finished to the season you know Voight what he did for the Yankees

down the stretch in 2018 I think it's a little different because Walsh appears to be selling out for the long ball a little more Voight had a great line drive rate to go along with the spike in home runs which made me a little more confident in the sustainability

of that but Walsh's strikeout rate is like half of what Voits was then. So that's certainly a Mark in Walsh's favor. And of nothing else, I think he's positioned himself to be the Angel starting first baseman next year.

I don't know how they're going to play it in free agency, but I suspect Walsh, this 27-year-old, will be a major part of their plans next year. Yeah, I'm trying to figure that out because they have Otani, who I assume will be back as a

somewhat regular full-time player for them next season. because his playing time has kind of fallen off here in the second half of the season. They're out of things. I think they're kind of in development mode and they want to see what they have in this kid, Jared Walsh. But does Albert Poole still have any? I feel like he always has five years left on this contract.

Is it ever going to end? One year. Come back. One year. All right. We're almost done with it. We are almost done with the Albert Pujol's contract. That is, Scott, where were you when he signed that contract?

I was sitting in a, I think a journalism class. college. I remember it very vividly. I don't know why. I was sitting in a cubicle in the CBS interactive office, probably writing something about it. I was the same place I am now, Frankie boy. Time flies when you're having fun. That is correct. Jared Walsh, look, you highlight a lot of the great things that he has done so far this season. I wanted to ask you just a little bit of a comparison heading into next year because someone that I can see myself being excited about for the 2021 season is Nate Lowe who hit his fourth home run on Monday. He is batting 260 with a 9-13 OPS. If both Jared Walsh and Nate Lowe have the starting first

beige job for their respective teams, the Angels and the Rays, who do you think that you're going to be more excited about heading into next season? I think it's going to be low because he started at a higher level to begin with my enthusiasm. But what Walsh has been doing is more impressive because while Lowe is also finishing the season hot, 12 for his last 36, that's a 33-batting average, obviously. 12 for his last 36 with four home runs. He has 16 strikeouts in those 36 at bats, which is obviously untenable if he's going to continue striking out at that rate. But strikeouts weren't really, like making contact was a part of his profile on the minors.

It wasn't something he was doing a lot of the strikeouts down there. So I still think the upside is higher here. And I think the likelihood of him being a standout player over the long haul is better. But, you know, there are obviously some causes for concern with Lowe and what he's doing right now. Both players are super interesting, Jared Walsh and Nate Lowe, but I tend to agree. Lowe has been a person, a player that I've been just waiting to earn every day playing time for years now and it's just Tampa Bay. This is the way that they operate. But now, I mean, he's performing well. Now that he's finally getting the opportunity, he does have to cut down the strikeouts for sure.

But after Monday's action, he has a 15% walk rate as well. So does get on base a lot via the walk. Nate Lowe, he's an interesting player, but I do like both Lowe and Jared Wall. Some news and notes. Shane Bieber's start was pushed from Tuesday to Wednesday this week, which means he is no longer a two-star pitcher if he was. He was expected to be a two-star pitcher, right, Scott? Who was that, you said? Shane Bieber?

Yes, he was, but I was not. I put him in my two-star pitcher rankings, but with a caveat there at the top. See, this is why you've got to read the intro people. I know nobody wants to, but you need to because there's important information in there. Sometimes it's just me rambling. because I need an intro. But this time there was important information in there.

And yeah, it makes sense. Because if Bieber was actually going to make two starts, that means he wouldn't be available for game one of the playoffs. And that would be obviously stupid. Yeah, so Cleveland made this adjustment to their rotation to ensure that both Bieber and Zach Plesack will be rested for the start of the postseason. Oh, yes.

By the way, I was beginning my 2021 research today now that, you know, basically 2020 is over in terms of fantasy analysis. Not this podcast, but you know, keep coming back. But yeah, I was beginning my 2021 research. And among pitchers who have made two starts or more this year, let me double check this to make sure I got the stat exactly right. Yeah, among pitchers who have, okay, so among pitchers who've made three starts or more this year, Shane Beeper is first in head-to-head points per game, obviously.

He's a distant first, 25.18. Do you know who's second? I just looked that up. It's Zach Plesack. It is. Yeah, it's these two pitchers. Zach Plessack is second, and he's made not just three stars. He's made seven starts.

You know, Clayton Kershaw has made nine. It's not that big of a difference. So, you know, Plesaq is going to be an interesting case in 2021 where we draft them. think it's going to be top 10 or top 15, probably not even top 20, but there's a case for it. Yeah, man. Was he on your list of pitchers that will be tough to rank for next season? He wasn't. Yeah. But he is now. He is interesting for sure. I mean, I don't see how you can really push him outside the top, I don't know, 25, I guess, top 30. But he's been so good. It's, I would guess he's going to be in the top 25, having not lined them up yet. I have basically

lined up my top 10, 12, and he's not in that, obviously. But it gets pretty interesting after that. Hmm. All right. I'm, ooh, talking about 2021, I'm just, I'm getting excited already, man. Like, once we, we usually these big reveal parties, you know, they have these, like, revelations for, like, oh, what baby am I having to, like, smash a bunch of stuff and see, like, what kind of, Is it blue? Is it pink? Yeah, gender reveal. Gender reveal parties. I want to do like Scott's ranking reveal parties here on the podcast.

I don't know. We'll make it happen. We'll do something wild with it because I am quite excited. Yasmani Grande-Dal left Monday's game due to a bruised right hand. X-rays came back negative. He is currently day to day. Chris Bryant left Monday's game against the Pirates with right oblique tightness. The nightmare season continues for Chris Bryant between his recent injuries and

underperformance. I don't think that I will have much exposure to Chris Bryant. I did not like him already heading into this season unless he is like basically free next year. I can't really imagine drafting Chris Bryant. But that's just me. Michael Conforto missed Monday's game due to hamstring tightness. He is listed as day-to-day.

Wade Davis has been released by the Colorado Rockies. He gone. What a fall from grace it has been for poor Wade Davis. He gone. He gone. He gone. And he's gone. Someone else who was gone is Cole Hamels.

He was shut down again, landing on the IL with left shoulder fatigue. Scott, you pointed this out last week that Hamils, his velocity was down in his first start of the season. And hopefully everybody was able to get him out of your lineups if you had him in there. I mean, we told you not to start Cole Hamels anyway, but some people might have been desperate for the two starts. Hopefully I got him out of there just in time. Nolan Aronado, hopefully you got this guy out of your lineups as well. he has been shut down for the rest of the season with left AC joint inflammation

and a left shoulder bone bruise. I hope this isn't anything too serious for Aeronado heading into the 2021 season. I don't know if he's going to have to have some kind of off-season surgery. I'm just speculating right now. He becomes pretty difficult to rank next year too with or without surgery.

It almost rather there be some kind of surgery so I feel like there's closure, you know. But he was not hitting the ball as hard this year. He was hitting, making a ton of contact. like he usually does, but not hitting it as hard. I don't know. There was talk coming into this season before the talk became the pandemic. There was talk about Aeronado getting traded at some point.

And if that happens, then all bets are off for Nolan Aeronado heading into 2021. But I do not have him, you know, this is something we did on the show a couple weeks back. But with two weeks more of information and me doing it all by myself, I put together my first two rounds. That was something I was working on today. And Nolan Aeronado, probably no surprise given the comments I just gave that he's not in those first two rounds.

Yeah, look, it's, it is a tough situation for sure for Nolan Aeronauta. It's just so weird because he's been so dependable for so long. Like, we've never had injuries with Nolan Aeronado. I guess, like, it's going to happen eventually, but he is, he's only 29 years old. So it's, I don't think he's breaking time. down or anything, but you're talking about someone who played at least 157 games in each of the past five seasons entering 2020. So this is very weird to see Nolan Aronado in this type of predicament.

But yeah, let's pay attention. Even if he has surgery, I'm going to be a little scared because we've seen shoulder surgery affect a few guys their first years back. I remember, you know, last year or two years ago, it was like Jesse Winker. The year before that, it was Michael Conforto. So sometimes these guys need like a few years to build that shoulder strength back up. So let's see what happens with Nolan Aronado. Tim Anderson was back in the lineup for the White Sox on Monday after dealing with a hamstring cramp on Sunday. Bryce Harper was also back in the lineup for the Phillies.

He was dealing with some back discomfort yesterday or two days ago. By the time you're listening to this, J.T. Realimuto, his teammate remained out. Mike Yistremski also remained out for the Giants. is dealing with that calf strain. Jorge Salare was reinstated from the IL Monday for the Kansas City Royals. Apparently, Sunny Gray will not be limited in his return on Tuesday against the Brewers. Aroldus Chapman will not face a suspension this year. His appeal will not take place until 2021. And Ken Giles announced on Monday that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. He'll likely miss most, if not all, of the 2021 season. It's pretty sad. But you know what else is pretty sad,

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St-R-I-K-E. Subject's credit approval rate includes 0.50% auto-paid. discount terms and conditions apply and offers are subject to change without notice. Visit lightstream.com slash strike for more information. Taking a look at some of the action from Monday. And a few pitchers that are slowing down a little bit here, Scott, I want to get your thoughts as to how much this might affect you for the 2021 season. Dylan Bundy in a should be good matchup against the Texas Rangers on Monday.

five innings, five hits, three earned, two walks, only three strikeouts, ten swinging strikes on 101 pitches. He's slowly increased his fastball usage all season long while decreasing the change-up and slider usage, which I don't really get because that's something that I was pretty excited about when I first saw his first couple of starts this season.

Again, this is Dylan Bundy. His first four starts, a 1.57 ERA, the last seven for Dylan Bundy, a 4.62. Are we starting to flip-flop a little bit adding into 2021 for Dylan Bundy-Scott. I'm still pretty optimistic.

I mean, he is just two starts removed from a 12 strikeout effort against these same Rangers and the supporting numbers look pretty good. He wasn't throwing his heart in this start. His average fastball velocity was only

88, which sounds terrible. But, you know, he's normally right around 90, so it's not that crazy. Look, he's going to be less proven than a lot of the high-end arms you'll draft next year and he's going to be ranked appropriately

at this point I'm liable to say he belongs behind Zach Plessack I was just about to ask you police hacker Dylan Bundy right so I you know I don't think I don't think we're talking about a top 25 pitcher here in Dylan Bundy

probably top 30 but again I'll have to actually line up the names to know for sure there may I may run out quicker than I think, and Bundy will have to be that high. But, you know, it's been a very encouraging season for him overall, and because his last couple starts, you know, one was terrible, one was just kind of meh.

You know, still 374X FIPP on the year. That is certainly not bad. It's not a lead, but it's not bad. And, you know, still almost 10K per nine. So still feel good about Bundy. Scott just get used to this because I'm going to ask you this player or this player questions a million times throughout the offseason and I'm sure that they're going to change a lot

because things are going to happen. Players are going to get hurt. Players are going to get traded. We're probably going to change our rankings hundreds of times before next season actually starts. But as of now, who would you be leaning towards? Dylan Bundy? I think I know the answer, but Dylan Bundy or Aaron Savali. Oh, Bundy, for sure.

Yeah, I mean, you want, you talk somebody who's faith. I mean, you can look right at Savale. It hurts, Scott. Well, yeah, I mean, after today's start, when he gave up four earned runs in six innings, his ERA is now up to 399. His whip is 1.26. It's less than a K-per.

Yeah, he's a better batmisser than he was last year, a better ground ball pitcher than he was last year, but he's still not great at those things. Honestly, I think he's closer to Marco Gonzalez. than he is Dylan Bundy. You don't seem to like that. Based on that look, you just shot him. Shot Scott a look.

That's why you're going to watch us on our YouTube channel. But you're probably not wrong. Like, I think Dylan Bundy, he's got swings and misses for like his entire career. There was no doubt about that. And Dylan Bundy is going to give you strikeouts and likely more than Aaron Savale. I still like Savali. I don't like the fact that he slowed down, much like Dylan Bundy. Aronsvalli's first five starts.

He had a 2.91. ERA, his last six, he has a 5.00 ERA. That is including Monday's action. So I'm not going to be completely off Savali, but I think a lot of people are going to be scared off of this, you know, this stretch for him. And I think if I get him as like my SP4, my SP5 heading into next season as like a borderline top 35,

top 40 starting pitcher, Aaron Savale, then yeah, I'll be right back in if I can get him. I don't want him anything like higher than my SP3. You know, SP4 or later, I'm cool with that for Savali, but I do agree. I would still rather have Dylan Bundy over him. On the other side of Savali in this game, Dane Dunning says maybe his worst start of the season.

Four innings, four earned, still had five strikeouts, nine swinging strikes on 87 pitches. What did you think about Dane Dunning's performance? It's supposed to be a good matchup against Cleveland, so I was kind of, I was taken back a little bit, but you know what? Jose Ramirez is just carrying that offense right now. So it's really hard to blame Dane Dunning for giving up,

I believe it was a three-run home runs, Jose Ramirez. Yeah, it was. And Jose Ramirez has seven home runs in his last 10 games now, so he's certainly catching fire here at the end of the season. Yeah, Dane Dunning, it's been kind of discouraging. Like his last two starts were his best starts on paper, and yet he kind of got away from his,

missing bats and was kind of relying on contact more in those two starts. Went six innings and one, with seven innings and the other. The results were good, but the whiff rate went way down. And I've noticed since those first three starts, his slider usage has gone down and his slider hasn't been as effective. And I don't really know what's up with that. but I'm a little concerned there may have been a mirage there to begin his career.

Like the minor league track record is still so good that I'm going to be pretty high on Dane Dunning going into next year, I think. But obviously these... I feel mostly discouraged by his last three starts even though two of them were, in theory, his best. I feel mostly discouraged by it when I was, you know, know, I was over the moon for this guy's first three times out.

And something we've talked a lot about, and we're going to continue to talk a lot about, is for 2021, trying to figure out, okay, how, what is the innings limit going to look like for all these young starting pitchers? And Dane Dunning, in particular, is going to be a very interesting case because this is the first time that he's pitched since having Tommy John surgery. I had Tommy John surgery back in 2018. He missed all of the 2019 minor league season. Now, this is the first time we've seen him, and he's looked good.

But by the end of this year, what will he have? I mean, including the postseason, maybe 50 innings? I don't know what his workload is going to look like heading into the 2021 season. Jose Ramirez, as I mentioned, he went two for three, hit his 16th home run of the season. He's betting 290 with a 970 OPS. He also has 10 steals. Scott, I'm starting to think that this is, not to the same level,

but pretty damn close to the Jose Ramirez we saw back in 2018. And I'm starting to think that he deserves to be closer to a mid-first-round pick. And dare I say, be drafted ahead of Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. What would you say to that?

I would wrinkle my nose like I'm doing right now. I have him 13. So, you know, to the degree you want to quibble over five or six spots, we can. I think Jose Ramirez, really since he kind of took off as a power hitter, he's become not such a great source of batting average because he puts the ball in the air so often. And, you know, he's so hot right now that the batting average is up over 290, but his expected batting averages, I think, at the 260 range.

And I think, you know, from what I can tell about his bad at ball profile, not even relying on statcast, that seems more appropriate to me, you know, if you catch him in a stretch where he's not ridiculously hot. So, yeah, I mean, the power speed combo is great. In Roto especially, you like those steals numbers. And, you know, he's a great hitter in points leagues too because he strikes out so infrequently. But there's a temptation because he strikes out so infrequently to think he's going to help you in batting average. and I think the past three years have shown that, you know, not so much. So if it comes down to him versus Trey Turner, I trust Trey Turner, you know, especially the kind of power he's shown this year.

I think I trust him more as a batting average source and, you know, probably not as many home runs as Ramirez, but enough and probably outperform him in steals too, even though Ramirez has more in this short and season. We know what Turner's track record is with that. So that pushes them out to me. I still want those three starting pitchers, Bieber de Grom, Garrett Cole. I still want all three of them in my first round.

Obviously, the big four hitters we talked about two weeks ago when we looked at the first two rounds. We're Ronald de Koonia, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis. I don't think they're going anywhere. Juan Soto an obvious first rounder ahead of Ramirez. as Trevor Story, who is second in the majors and steals this year, an obvious first rounder ahead of Ramirez.

So I guess the only two you could talk about are Yelich and Bellinger. And sorry, I just don't see it. I mean, Yelich has hit the ball as hard as ever this year. He's just struck out at a rate we're not used to seeing for him. And has had some bad bad bit luck on top of it. But I still think he's the same guy. I think those strikeouts in a normal season would come down.

I have a few more concerns about Bellinger, but knowing how he rebounded from his sophomore season to his third year, like I'm unwilling to bet against him, and he provides, like, I think he has six steals this year. So the speed is still there. The strikeout improvement that we saw last year, that's carried over, even though the overall production hasn't.

I could see Bellinger more than Yellich, but I'd rather have both ahead of Ramirez myself. Look, there's only so many players we can put in the first round And I think you just laid it out perfectly, right? Like, I'm still going to take Soto ahead of Jose Ramirez. I'm going to take Trevor Story ahead of Jose Ramirez. Garrett Cole's probably in a similar range. I think, you know, probably in that 8 to 12 range, you have Garrett Cole.

And Trey Turner actually stole his 10th base of the season on Monday, so he's the same amount of steals as Jose Ramirez. I agree wholeheartedly that he is a better batting average source. Like at this point, I would expect Trey Turner to hit near 300 or even over 300. And that's not the case for Jose Ramirez. The one edge that Jose Ramirez will give you is, I think, in power. And I think, you know, over the course of a full season, you're probably looking at 30 home runs, maybe even 35 home runs for Jose Ramirez.

Whereas for Trey Turner, even though this year he's on a 30 home run pace, I would probably lean closer to like 20, 25 home runs for Trey Turner. The one thing I will add about Bellinger is that I noticed he is struggling mightily against left-handed pitching again this season. So he's kind of flip-flopped, like where in 2018 when he had his down year, he really struggled against lefties. 2019 bounced back big time against lefties. He had like an OPS over 900 against them. And now this season, he has a 597 OPS against lefties, 821 against righties. So Bellinger really struggling against Southpaws.

I got to do a little bit more research into him, but a little worried, a little worried about Cody Bellinger. Somebody who I'm not worried about, and if he starts to fall down draft boards for next season, I will gladly take him everywhere, Scott, because people might see the surface numbers and the batting average, and they're like, oh, this is who Bryce Harper is. He's just a 250, 260 hitter nowadays, and that's just it. He went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts on Monday. But even with those three strikeouts, his strikeout rate is 18%. The lowest of his career.

And it seems like he has the green light on the base path with Joe Girardi. He has eight seals in 52 games. That's a 24 steel pace. And his batting average is 254. His slugging percentage is 509. His XBA is 314. His ex-slug is 674. Again, this is Bryce Harper.

he is, those two numbers, the XBA and X-SL, are in the 94th percentile or better in 2020. Sky, I mean, if people just look at the surface numbers on Harper and let him slip to, I don't know, like the late second, even the third round,

I'll be all over it, 100%. Yeah, and, you know, we left him out originally two weeks ago when we did that exercise looking at the first two rounds. We left him out of that. I think that's a mistake. Well, yeah, I agree.

I have him in this independent process I did, independent from you, Frank. And I think those numbers that you cited, the expected stats from statcast, I think they're even better than during his MVP season. I want to double check that because he's been around for a long time. His MVP season was 2015. Let me make sure that's, yeah.

Wait. Yeah, yep, even better numbers than during his MVP season. MVP season that 2015 was the first on record for stat cast. So that says a lot. I mean, the strikeout rate being way down. The fact that he has eight steals and 10 attempts after having 15 last year, that seems like it's going to be a part of his game still. And these rankings I put together were specifically for Roto for 5 by 5 leagues.

I think maybe if you're talking to points league, I could see him maybe slipping out of the first. couple rounds because you don't need the speed as much and you might emphasize starting pitchers even more. But it's, yeah, he's going to be right on the border there, even in that format, especially since he's walking more than ever and striking out less than ever. We had a pitcher's duel in Cincinnati on Monday. Brandon Woodruff against Luis Castillo, Woodruff 5 and 2 thirds, two earned nine strikeouts, 12 swinging strikes on 100 pitches. Just a very solid season for Brandon Woodruff. Like, doesn't blow you.

you away, but 3.43 ERA, 1.07 whip, a 48% ground ball rate. I feel like he's someone that just might be overlooked because he's not flashy, he's not the sexy name, Brandon Woodruff, but man, look. Yeah, I mean, he didn't put up one of the outlier stat lines that a lot of pitchers did. His ERAs in the mid-3s right now, but his numbers compare favorably to last year, pretty much across the board. And so, you know, it was a little inconsistent how he came about it, both just performance-wise. I mean, really, every way.

Overall performance, swinging strike, great innings. It was kind of all over the map. But if you stuck with him, the result is very good. And like inconsistency over a six-month season, that's going to be present for most pitchers, you know. So, yeah, I think, I don't think we should be discouraged by this year from Woodruff. where he's going to slot in my starting pitcher rankings. I don't know, he'll probably be

in the 25 to 30 range as well, but that's kind of what he was coming into the season. So he held his value, I feel like. Yeah, I think like, you know, borderline top 20-ish, top 25 starting pitcher is your SP3, or if you're really aggressive, if you take like four starting pitchers

in the first six or seven rounds, you get them as your SP4. The past 33 start. dating back to the start of 2019 for Woodruff. 3.570 ERA. Again, just 10.6K per 9. Rock solid. And look, if people want to point to the fastball usage and how much he throws like a couple of different iterations

of a fastball, look, it's not exactly the same, but it's not dissimilar from Lance Lynn. And look what Lance Lynn has done, you know, a little bit later on in his career. So Brandon Woodruff, I'm all about it. And I'm all about the gentleman that he went up against. Luis Castillo, who went six and two-thirds, four hits, one earned, nine strikeouts, 17 swinging strikes on 101 pitches for Castillo.

His last four starts, he has allowed four earned runs over 28 and two-thirds, with 33 strikeouts. Luis Castillo, I think, is a top 10, top 12 starting pitcher, heading into next season. I do have him outside of my top 12, but he probably would be in my top 15. You know, the walks were kind of high this year. He's going to show up lower in point total because his records four and five,

which is just an unfortunate part about fantasy, specifically points leagues, that they reward those the way that they do. But nonetheless, I mean, 286 ERA and the strikeout rate's awesome. What was interesting in this start for Luis Castillo is he got eight of his 17 whiffes on the slider, which normally his change-up is really what carries him. So if that breaking ball can become a more consistent pitch for him, then maybe he unlocks even more potential. Jacob de Grom, can he unlock any more potential?

Probably not. He's only throwing like 100 miles per hour nowadays. Seven innings, two runs, 14 strikeouts against the, I believe it was Tampa Bay. It was against the Tampa Bay Rays. And of course, DeGrom took the loss because that's just the Mets forget how to hit the ball whenever DeGrom is on the mound. So that is unfortunate. But he had 27 swinging strikes on 112 pitches.

He had a 21% swinging strike rate before this start. And that's like unheard of. I looked at the past five years and it was like the leader every year was like right around 16, 17%. So a 21% swinging strike rate for DeGrom that's probably about to go up. With this start, Scott, do you think that he has done enough to win the National League Sy Young? I think him, Darvish, Freed, Trevor Bauer, Corbyn, Burns, I think those are probably the top five candidates.

Yeah, I'd have to compare the numbers side by side. I didn't do that beforehand. I think DeGrom has been the best pitcher in the NL this year. does it show up in the numbers like it would need to for him to win the Cy Young? I mean, especially since you Darvish has... Let's see, DeGrom's going to get two more. They'll both finish with 12 starts, right?

I think they'll both finish with 12 starts. Darvish is going to have more wins, but that hasn't really been a major consideration for Cy Young voters. You know what? I'm comparing their numbers now? I think so. think I would give the vote to DeGrom over Darvish. I mean, let's see how their final start goes.

Maybe DeGrom will have a dud then, but yeah, I would give it to, I would give the edge to DeGrom. Yeah, and I think if Corbyn Burns is like what he's done all season, if he did that in the rotation because he bounced between the bullpen, like he'd probably get more consideration, but he does have a sub-2 ERA, which is just ridiculous, as does Trevor Bauer again. Oh, yeah, that Bauer ERA. 1.80 for Trevor Bauer. Maybe I was worrying about the wrong guy.

Gosh, man. I don't know. You want to look at someone who was dead wrong about Trevor Bauer? Boom. This guy right here. Oh my gosh. Oh, my goodness gracious. There's nothing else that could be said about my analysis of Trevor Bauer.

Just we will leave it there. Some bullpen notes from Monday. Nick Anderson picked up the save. Diego Castillo pitched in the seventh. So, I mean, at least we know the person's name picked up the save for the race tonight, so that's cool. Nick Anderson. And then Mike Mayors? I think it's Mike Mayors. I think it's Mike Myers. Mike Myers, yes. Halloween is quickly approaching, Scott. Have you seen... Oh, that's interesting that you went there with Mike Myers and not...

Not Austin Powers? Not the left-handed reliever now, of course. I was talking about Austin Powers, yeah, or Dr. Evil. Yep. You know, I actually dressed up as Dr. Evil. One season for Halloween. One season, one year for Halloween. I knew it. I even wore a bald cap, it looked terrible. It was so bad. Had like a fake scar over my eye. I really went all out.

I'm not a big dressing up guy. I'm not. Well, I guess that means you're not a big Halloween guy in general then. I mean, I like candy. I like taking my kids around. No, I would say I'm not, I'm not like anti-Hlloween. I'm not, you know, I don't shunner. Halloween or anything, but

it is a little odd to me how into Halloween some people are. I mean, it's definitely a second-tier holiday for me. It's not, you know, I don't plan my calendar around it. It is Myers, you are correct.

Scott, another point to Scott, ding, ding, Scott wins, but it is Mike Myers. He picked up the first save of the season for Myers on Monday for the Angels He pitched two innings, and he has been lights out for them. So maybe he's the guy.

A couple of weeks ago, I thought it was Matt Andres, and then thought it was Felix Pena, and Ty Buntry has an ERA over six. I don't know. I mean, he's been awesome. He's been kind of Devin Williams-like for them, pitching multiple innings often. It has a 167 ERA.

0.74 whip, and now up to 13, up over 13K per 9. Mike Myers is. It's M-A-Y-E-R-E-R. that's why we were debating the pronunciation. Yeah, he's kind of gotten overlooked in the dominant middle reliever crowd. And he is 4% roster on CBS.

So a name to pay attention to, I guess, heading into next season. You know, someone asked an email, asked a question in an email. Let's see if it, this is actually kind of relevant to what we're talking about. So I think Myers is someone that you could look at who,

if he's dominant the final couple of weeks here, he might wind up being the closer for the Angels heading into next season. And we got this email from Seth, I think it was last week, and he asked, who would you recommend to pick up potentially to get cheap as a keepable closer

for next season? I've already picked up Jonathan Hernandez for a dollar and Alex Reyes for a dollar in anticipation that they may be in the running for the closers role next season. Scott, is there any names along the lines of these guys? Jonathan Hernandez. is not that I don't know if he's the closer of the future.

Montero has been pretty good. And of course, I love to Marcus Evans in Texas' organization as well. But any other relievers that you think you could pick up now, that could become the closer for next season. Yeah, well, if you remember about a week ago, I wrote the article 20 sneaky pickups for Dynasty Leagues, and I had a section devoted to making their case to close is what I called it. I actually didn't have either Jonathan Hernandez or Alex Reyes in it.

I did have Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays, well, especially with Ken Giles having Tommy John's surgery, though. I think he was destined for free agency anyway. Josh Stamont of the Royals, who has a horrible walk rate, but an amazing strikeout rate. And with short relievers, we see that correct pretty quickly sometimes, pretty often, in fact. So I could see Josh Stamont taking over there for the Royals,

Tanner Rainey of the Nationals with Daniel Holmonds. Hudson blowing five saves this year. I could see that happening. And Aaron Bummer of the White Sox with Alex Colomé destined for free agency and Bummer already locked into a long-term deal. It seems like they might have a ready-made replacement there in Chicago. So those would be my top four if you're if you're projecting saves for 2021 in a dynasty league. You know, you want to you want somebody where you can kind of anticipate a change.

a changing of the guard happening. I will also just throw in a few of the, you know, obvious, awesome relievers from this season. Of course, they have Josh Hader and Brad Hand ahead of them, respectively. It's Devin Williams and James Carin-Chack. But, I mean, given how Cleveland has operated the past couple of years, if they look to sell high on Brad Hand in the off-season and trade him away, his name has come up multiple times the past couple of seasons as a trade candidate, then James Carin-Chack could wind up being the closer.

for Cleveland heading into the 2021 season. And same thing with Hater. We've heard Hater's name thrown around a ton in trade rumors already. And if they want to maximize his value, I don't think it's crazy that they will look into trying to sell high on Josh Hater. So Devin Williams and James Cairn-Chack, I'll just throw those names in the mix as well. All right, we're going to take a quick break.

Just want to remind everyone again that we are still going strong on YouTube. Yesterday, Scott swallowed a fly here in the middle of the show. And it was hilarious because he was like choking. and I'm trying to talk to him, but I also want to make sure he's all right, and he's like, what's going on? It didn't go, like you say swallowed, and that's fine. You know, the old lady who swallowed the fly.

There's, you know, there's, we all get that reference, so I get it. But I actually inhaled it. It went into my lungs, not into my stomach, which I think is worse, actually. Yeah, it's, you know. It's pretty bad. It's probably still there. Dead, I hope.

I hope. I hope so, too. but you can watch us on YouTube. So head on over. It's YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today and make sure to subscribe. You could leave some comments as well. All right,

we're going to take a quick break when we return. Talk a little bit about some lessons we might have learned from the 2021 season. Won't spend too much time on that, but also have Tuesday to stream or not to stream some pitchers you might be looking at. We'll do that here. Fantasy baseball today.

We're back here and we had a few leftovers. We talked about it here during the break that we wanted to mention quickly from Monday. I know that Giovanni Gallegos was back for the Cardinal Scott. He did not look very good. Trevor Rogers, someone we were a little excited about for the Miami Marlins.

Has been quite bad. His past couple of starts and he was again on Monday. And then we had some random kind of standouts. J.T. Brewbaker and Miguel Rojas, who we just really have not given enough credit all season long. Yeah, so I don't know where to start with those. What's interesting about that Trevor

Rogers start for the Marlins is he had 19 swinging strikes in it. But, I mean, he's just been horrible his last three starts. A couple of them with a bunch of runs. One of them, I think, he only went like three and a third innings or something like that. It's not like he's especially vulnerable

to the long ball. There have been too many walks during this rough stretch, but I do think there's still potential here. And if he's in the mix for a rotation spot for the Marlins last year and isn't disqualifying himself in the end, I'm not going to write him off. J.T. Brubaker, on the other hand, I really don't see it. I really don't see where the potential is. It was an awesome start. He struck out nine. He had 19 swinging strikes

himself, a bunch on both the slider and the curveball. But I just, like, he's 26 years old. He's this non-prospect, and really hadn't shown any signs of this before, before this starts. So I'm pretty much just dismissing that one. I mean, I was hoping he'd, you know, I'm not sure he's going to get any saves this final week after the way that first outing went. Miguel Rojas is interesting because I don't think anybody had him as this threat to win the batting title coming into the season,

343 batting average. And it was in a limited amount of times. He actually has a 1001 OPS too, because, you know, he wasn't around for the whole season. Only 35 games played and more walks than strikeouts. It's another one of those profiles like, I don't know, Donovan Solano or that other guy on the Orioles whose names escaping me. Jose Iglesias?

No, no. Oh, Hanser, Alberto. Yes, Hanser Alberto, yeah. It really does seem geared for batting average. Like that does seem like something he should be able to sustain from one year to the next. It's just like, I'm not confident there's a lot to go with it. And he's, he's been around a while doing the same sort of thing. He's 31 years old.

So I don't think he's turning over a new leaf here. I don't think speed's going to be a regular part of the game. It never has been before. It's been an interesting season for Rojas, but I don't think, I don't think there's much to see here. The last thing I think that we should probably mention Lance McCullors had a successful. successful first start of a two-start week. I assume he won't get bumped out of his second start. Yeah, I don't think so.

I think he would be... I don't think he would be in the Astros top three. I think they would have Granky, of course, ahead of him. I think they'd have Fromber or Valdez ahead of him. You know, they might be fighting right up until the end anyway. I haven't checked the standings. Jose Orquitis in the mix there. to start for them in the playoffs too.

But I think McCullors would probably slot third for them. I did want to mention just because I have a feeling this is going to become a fan favorite. I think it's going to be Williams Astudeo except with the future because he's only 21 years old. Alejandro Kirk short and stocky but really knows how to hit. And more walks than strikeouts in the minors last year. He got a start today, went four for four with a double and a home run. The home run was an opposite field wall scraper, you know, right next to the foul pole, short as part of the park.

But nonetheless, there is a little bit of pop there. And I mean, as bad as Danny Janssen's been this year, plays for the Blue Jays. By the way, Alejandro Kirk, as bad as Danny Jansans been this year, I think Kirk could position himself to play a key role for the Blue Jays next year. he was actually also on that list of 20 sneaky dynasty pickups, as were both Jared Walsh and Nate Lowe. So that's, that column is well represented in today's podcast.

So I'm laughing because I was trying to find this video. It was the Toronto Blue Jays that tweeted out, the engine that could. And they just like had this video of Alejandro Kirk rounding third base and just chugging on home. And you mentioned, I mean, he's a, yeah, he's, he's a plump. boy, he's a little butterball.

So he's chugging on home and he's sliding in. But actually, now that I look at it, there's a lot of really interesting stats here that I will mention regarding Alejandro Kirk. This one came from Mike Petriello, who of course does a ton of statcasts work with ESPN and fan graphs. Including tonight, Alejandro Kirk, he wrote,

has a 58% hard hit rate. Nine of 12 batted balls greater than 100 miles per hour. So very interesting. He hits the ball. extremely hard and makes a lot of contact. And then from MLB stats, they tweeted out, Alejandro Kirk is the youngest catcher since Joe Maurer in 2004

to record a four-hit game. So definitely an aim there. Alejandro Kirk could be relevant, especially in, you know, AAL only and two catcher leagues, some of those roto leagues heading into 2021. I'm going to save this lessons learned segment that we have here because I want to spend a little bit more time on it. I want to run through some ADP before the season.

and see how many of the top 30 starting pitchers were bused and how many of the top 30 hitters were bused. We're going to have a lot of time to fill in the near future, Frank. So that's probably a good idea. Let's not rush things, all right, Scott. Let's help the people out. There's still a lot of people who are playing in head-to-head leagues and daily leagues where they can stream pitchers.

And so we will help you figure out to stream or not to stream on Tuesday. The must-starts that I have, Garrett Cole at Toronto slash Buffalo Aranola at Washington Blake Snell at the Mets Sunny Gray his first start back Scott he is going up against the Brewers

what do you say? I say yay it's a hesitant yay I did bench him in certain leagues where I was most most looking to preserve ERA and WIP but I started him in some leagues where I just needed the volume

and I think points leagues it's an obvious yay I thought for sure you were going to go with a rhyme there. I think we were going to say yay to gray. I'm not as quick on my feet as that, Frank. Oh, you definitely are, Scott. You don't give yourself enough credit. You're a lot more witty than you actually think you are, Scott.

Framber Valdez at Seattle. Oh, yeah, that's a good one. Oh, yeah. Tanner Roark versus the Yankees. No. Austin Voth versus the Phillies, likely with no J.C. Real Mutu. I like in the notes here, you put like both with a V for both's pronunciation.

I'm trying to be better with the pronunciations. No. Rinaldo Lopez at Cleveland. No. Brett Anderson at Cincinnati. If you're desperate for volume, I think that's okay. Jose Cantana, I think this might be his first start back off the IL. He's at the Pirates.

It is. Got shut down by John Lester on Monday. I don't think he got a chance to stretch out fully after his previous return from the I-L, so definitely no for that one. Stephen Brault, fresh off of a complete game, is going up against the Cubs at home. Nah.

Nah. Seth Lugo! At home against the race. Michael Scott Jiff. When is he doing that in the show? What's happening in the show when he does that? I'm the worst at the show. this. I can never remember what's happening

specifically. There's always a million things happening in that show, but I don't remember. So I recommended Lugo for the two-star week, but I think if you're going start by start, you play it safe after the way's last start win, especially against Tampa Bay. I think the second matchup's better. I can't remember who it is.

I think it's better. So I would say no for you, daily leaguers, unless you just need all the volume you can get. The raise are in the top half of the league in weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching as well as... It's the nationals, the second start.

Yes, that's a little bit better. And the Rays are also in the top half of the league in weighted on-base average over the last two weeks. So I agree. I probably would not start Seth Lugo. Jose Urania at the Braves. Scott, why does it always feel like Jose Urania is always pitching against the Braves?

And I only know that because I know he got into a scuffle with Ronald Coonja. He, like, hit him with a bunch of pitches at some point in time, but... Yeah, they have a history, though. too. I would not start him against the race. I don't know. I don't know why those starts.

I mean, they're in the same division, so obviously they play each other a lot. But it's always fine drama. How about your boy? Kegan Aiken at the Boston Red Sox. Come on. It's not my boy. I want to use them here.

Can't do it. Can't do it. I mean, there's worse. choices. He has some strikeout potential, but I'm not going to risk it. Well, how about Nick Povetta making his Red Sox debut on the other side? Once upon a time, he was in the same conversation as Shane Bieber, Scott. I know, and maybe one day he'll get back there, but I'm not going to put it all on him now. It's crazy.

I am slightly, no, don't start him. Not even in an A.L. only league, but I am slightly interested to see what he does in his Red Sox debut, so I will be paying attention there to Nick Povetta. Terrick Scoobel at the twins who struggle against left-handed pitching. Yeah, he was also an okay two-start option. This is pretty iffy to me, this start by itself. I'd lean, though, but I don't think it's crazy to use him. I agree. He's another one like Lugo, where didn't really love the first matchup against the twins,

even though they struggle against lefties, but his next start is against Kansas City. So in a two-star week, maybe you would have used them. I would probably avoid Scoobel on Tuesday. Brady Singer against the Cardinal, I think we're in agreement, yes, there. Yep. Griffin Canning is at the Padres. Nah.

On the other side, we have Zach Davies against the Angels. I don't think so. Scott, what does Zach Davies have to do, man? It's a good matchup against the Angels. Do you want to use them? Yeah, I'll use them. Okay. It's, it's, like, if you need the, like, it's probably in the same as area as the Brett Anderson pick, where it's not crazy if you need the volume, but I, I don't think he's as good as his ERA has been.

Zach Davies is the National League version of Mark O'Gonzals. He's a 2.69 ERA and a 4.17 X-FIP. I feel like it's not dissimilar. I mean, Gonzalez has more of a track record of doing this. Correct. This is basically the third year in a row of him being surprisingly good. All right, Scott's out on Davies. I will say use him against the Angels.

Jordan Liles at the Diamondbacks. No. Caleb Smith on the other side is against the Texas Rangers. I'd like to be able to recommend him with that matchup, but I just don't, I'm not confident he's stretched out enough. Yeah, he hasn't gotten more than three in any of his starts thus far. I agree there. Frankie Monshaus is at the Dodgers.

Don't trust him. Dustin May against the Oakland A's. Yes. And Kyle Freeland at the Giants. It's not bad. I like it more than Davies. I like it more than Brett Anderson. I don't think it's must start or anything.

All righty. That's it for today's podcast. And reminder that this is our last week, some programming notes. It's very late if you're still listening here at the 59 minute mark. But I'll continue to remind everyone. This is our last week.

with five podcasts per week. After this, we will be doing two podcasts per week for the rest of the year. Some emergency podcasts here and there if any big signings or trades happen. And of course, we are going to look to bring on some more guests in the offseason. So if you have any suggestions,

you can email us, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Tweet at me at Roto underscore Frank. Tweet at Scott at CBS Scott White. Let us know who you want us to get on the podcast and we'll try to make it happen for Scotty. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.