Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Marcus Semien to the Rangers! Avisail Garcia to the Marlins! - Emergency Podcast (11/28 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 29, 2021

Frank and Scott react to a few moves and what they mean for Fantasy Baseball! First up, Marcus Semien is headed to the Rangers on a seven-year deal (1:00). ... Byron Buxton also signed an extension with the Twins (8:22). ... Corey Kluber signed a one-year deal with the Rays while Avisail Garcia is headed to the Marlins (13:00)! 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott, Chris, and Adam. The floodgates are open. Marcus Semyon has signed with the Texas Rangers. Welcome in to another emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. On Sunday, November 28th, Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White, to talk about this move and a few smaller ones, but let's start in Texas, where Marcus Semyon will be for the next seven years. $175 million is the deal there.

Coming off a massive season with the Toronto Blue Jays, 265 batting average, 45 homers, 115 run scored, 102 RBI, 15 steals. The guy was amazing. He did it all. The number seven overall player in 5x5 roto this past season. Scottie, what are we thinking here? Because a big downgrade in park, obviously big downgrade in lineup, but I think he could wind up running a little bit more now just based on how the Texas Rangers play. So what do you think in here? Yeah, I mean, I guess if you're looking for a silver lining, that might be it. Though, you know, it's not like, I don't know.

That's partially dependent on Simeon's willingness to run, of course, which hasn't always been there so consistently. Yeah, I mean, it's bad. It's bad. I've been pretty adamant about Simeon being somebody you should take in the second round next year. But, you know, always, always contingent on where he eventually signed. I feel like this is about as bad a place as he could have signed.

I mean, for a number of reasons. I mean, start with the Rangers lineup, which you mentioned is not good. It was the lowest scoring in the American League last year, the third lowest scoring overall. And that was with them having Joey Gallo most of the year. Of course, don't have Gallo anymore. They have been linked to other big free agents, surprisingly, Trevor Story. wouldn't want him to see he wouldn't want to see him go there either

but I mean they can't bring in enough players to make that a good lineup I don't think this off season so you know he goes from the Blue Jays ton of first second round type hitters in fantasy

early round type hitters and fantasy to the Rangers do have basically nobody so that's that's a big problem right off the bat and then you have the park change which I I thought maybe people were putting too much of the breakout on where he was playing his home games in 2021,

which, by the way, it was three different parks. The Blue Jays moved around quite a bit because of, for COVID reasons. And I also pointed out that, you know, he actually hit the majority of his home runs on the road in 2021. But the AL East, which is where he was playing most of his road games, obviously, a large percentage of his road games. It's a division full of hitters parks. The AL West is opposite end of the spectrum.

It's full of pitchers parks. You know, and the Rangers Park appears to be among them. It's only two years in, so we don't have a ton of data on it yet, but it looks like it favors pitchers. Now, I mean, Simeon had an MVP caliber season in 2019 as well, and that was with the athletics, who also playing a pitcher's park. also in the AL West. So maybe he'll overcome it,

but it adds this doubt that his 2021 seemingly removed, it adds it back in, because you know, you have that awful 2020 seasons, short though it was, sandwiched in between two amazing seasons. And then,

you know, you consider he's a 31-year-old. His track record is, you know, mostly uninspiring, at least as far as fantasy production goes. And these two years really stand out. last year obviously with the Blue Jays most home runs ever for a second baseman how much of that was his environment it's hard to say but it's it's gonna be tested in his new environment that's for sure and i'm not sure do i should i downgrade him is he are you downgrading him frank is he still a second rounder i mean i i i think maybe consensus had him going in the third round to begin with but do we need to drop him behind other short stops like corey cluber's ander bogarts uh let's see he's second

base eligible as well. So you could talk about, I don't know, do we drop them behind Ozzy Albiz? Sky, you said you dropped them behind Corey Klober. I'm just giving you a heads of. Corey Seeger. I'm sorry. Gosh, I'm asking, should we?

I'm hesitant to do that, but I'm hoping somebody else takes Marcus Simeon, I think is where I am. I'm hoping I'm not in a position where I have to think about taking him at like the three-four turn. Yeah, so his early NFBC ADP, I mentioned there,

there was a few more drafts done as well. So now they're up to 22 drafts done and his ADP there is 26.68. So if you play in a 15 team leaguer, that is a late second rounder. If you play in a 12 team league, then obviously that is an early third round pick. I think undoubtedly it has to drop a little bit, right?

So you mentioned a bunch of reasons why we should be worried. Obviously, the change in park, the change in lineup context. I think, again, that he could run a little bit more since Chris Woodward took over as the Rangers manager. The Rangers have the second most deals in baseball that's since the beginning of the 2019 season. So they are pretty aggressive on the base paths. But we have referenced this before as well, Scott. His quality of contact said that,

you know, maybe he was a little bit lucky last season as well. So the expected batting average, the expected slugging percentage were both below his actual numbers. So I think there's like a good amount to be worried about here when it comes to Marcus Semi. And I mentioned that ADP that's just ahead. of Cedric Mullins, just ahead of Starling Marte. What do you think? I mean, where should that drop to now in terms of the ADP? Yeah, I think

like I said, we're talking 12-team context. You know, I don't think I don't think I'm willing to drop him behind Seeger's actually my next short stop up. But you could make an argument for several others. I don't think I'm ready to drop Simeon there. And at second base, you know, I can see him slipping behind Ozzy Albies,

but maybe not any lower than that because you get kind of that Jose Altuvei, with Maryfield, Bradded Loud tier after that, that's tough to decide between those guys. But I don't want to be the one to take Simian. I think even if you're talking round three, four turn, I'm going to have some hesitation to take him there.

This really raises a lot of concerns for me and a lot of uncertainty, and it's just a difficult use of a first round pick, or I'm sorry, an early round pick, amid all those questions. And, you know, for what it's worth, and I'm still not really sure how to, how much weight this deserves in our analysis, but according to Statcast, which is only taking into account what a ballpark's dimensions are and where the ball

actually lands, according to Statcast, if Marcus Simeon had played all his games at Texas last year, he would have hit only 32 home runs instead of the 45 he actually hit. I know only 32. I mean, we'd take 32 from him, right? But we were already expecting a big drop in that power. So that's where I am now. I'm discouraged by where Simeon's landed. There are about 28 other scenarios that I think would have been better for his fantasy value.

Yep. But Texas Rangers, it is. Texas Rangers, it is the steamer projection for Marcus Semyon over on fan graphs right now. 30 homers, 11 steals. I would take the under on the homers, the over on the steals as of now. Maybe 26 to 28 homers somewhere in that range.

And I think that he could push 20 steals. It just comes down to how aggressive he actually wants to be on the base pass. Obviously the counting stats, the runs, the RBI. We expect those to take a pretty big step back, at least compared to where he was last year. Let's talk about a few other smaller moves

that happened here. Scott, Byron Buckson-Bucson signs. a seven-year $100 million extension with the Minnesota Twins. At first glance, I thought that this was a very team-friendly contract. There are a bunch of incentives where if Buckson manages to stay healthy,

if he finishes top five in MVP voting, he can make more money than the seven-year $100 million contract. It doesn't really change much for his value, but what we saw last year, Scott, was that he was finally legitimately breaking out. 306 batting average, 19 homers, nine steals, strikeouts weren't too bad,

the ADP right now, 67.82 for Byron Bucks, and how do you feel about that? I think it's fine. I mean, this deal doesn't really change where I draft them. I do think it's interesting that doesn't seem like he was willing to bet on himself. Those incentives certainly help in a way. You could say that's him betting on himself, but he was only a year away from free agency, right?

I think I have that right. Yeah. So this isn't, it's not like some 24-year-old who's looking at five years of team control. still and wondering how his career is going to shape out in that time if he's going to get that big payday that he's being offered now. You can understand it a little more in that scenario than Buxton

who just had at least percentage-wise far and away his best season and he's so close to free agency. And you're right. At least the base numbers of this deal, the base amount, is pretty low considering. So I just

find that interesting. I don't know that it really affects how we approach him in fantasy. but it, yeah, it seemed like he was happy to take the money when it was offered to him. Buxson has played more than 100 games just once in his seven-year career. So we know that he's dealt with a bunch of injuries this past season. He missed, I believe it was a couple of months because he got hit by a pitch on his hand. So fractured his hand. Obviously, that's not his fault.

That's a pretty fluky injury. Same thing. Something similar happened to Corey Seeger. But just to remind you how good he was on a per game basis, 3.9 fantasy points per game tied with Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. That's what Byron Bucksen averaged this past season. A few

smaller deals here. Corey Klober to the Tampa Bay raise on a one year, $8 million deal. This past season had a 3.83 ERA, 1.3 4 whip. 80 innings pitch. She only made 16 starts. Dealt with a shoulder injury. He's dealt with a bunch of injuries the past couple of seasons.

I don't really think that there's much here, Scott, but it wouldn't surprise me if Tampa Bay finds a way to get something out of him. Yeah, that's the thing. I mean, we're kind of at a point where if the raise are interested in somebody, it kind of perks the rest of our interest in that same somebody because they're not a team that we see waste money very often. They generally spend those dollars wisely and get a lot out of what they spend.

Not always. There've been some misfires over the years. There always are. but to see them make this kind of investment in Glover, not, you know, one year, one year a million dollars, it's not like you got a huge deal, but still, the fact that the raise were willing to do it. You know, no telling given the raise, whether he'll hold a traditional rotation spot or whether he'll follow an opener and be somebody who only faces the lineup a couple times, never gets that third time through like we saw earlier in his career. he did have that month May before he got hurt when he looked like it looked like it was all coming together for him again the velocity went up a little bit he was getting a ton of wist on his

curveball but then he missed that time with injury and when he came back in august he looked pretty awful to close out the season so I don't think Cory Glober's worth a big investment in fantasy raise or not but I imagine he will get drafted late in some leagues. That May, which you mentioned, he pitched 31 and 2 3rds innings with a 2.27 ERA, 0.85 whip over 10Ks per 9. He was really good that month,

and that includes the no-hitter. No-hitter? Perfect game? Was it a perfect game? I don't remember now. It was a no-hitter. I should know. He only did it for the Yankees. But he was really good.

So I would say, you know, you probably don't want to start him in April. He's such a slow starter every single year. Maybe by the time we get to May, he has some fantasy relevance. Last one here. It was a strange shoulder that cost him all that time, by the way. Yep. And I believe that's what knocked him out of 2020 as well, the shortened season.

It was shoulder-related then. Viseel Garcia, to the Marlins. To Chris's Marlins, they finally make a move for some offense here. On a four-year, $53 million deal, he was actually pretty damn good this past season. 262 batting average, 29 homers, eight steals and 135 games with the Brewers. He finished as the outfielder 25 in Roto,

and he averaged 2.8 fantasy points per game, which is pretty meh. But he was actually, you know, solid in Roto this past season. Stackass numbers say he was pretty unlucky, too, Scott. So, Avisa El Garcia, early ADP 190.32, just behind names like Ian Hatt, just ahead of Jorge Solair. So what do you think of this move for Garcia,

and what do you think of that cost? Well, you'd never want to see it or go to the Marlins. That's right. bottom line. They were, you know, the Rangers were the worst, the lowest scoring team in the AL, third worst in the majors. Well, the Marlins were the second worst in the majors, second worst in the NL, obviously. So, low-scoring team in an even more extreme pitchers park.

And obviously, Al Garcia, over the years, his power production has been the most uncertain part of his profile. So going to a big park where we've seen a lot of home run suppression for other hitters. It's not what you want to see coming off the career high 29 home runs. He had only had one 20 homer season before that, and it was exactly 20 with the raise in 2019. You know, he does at least hit the ball reasonably hard. He hits it harder on average than Marcus Simeon does. So maybe he'll be less vulnerable to his environment than I fear Simeon will be.

But nonetheless, I think in three outfielder leagues, you can safely avoid. avoid Avicel Garcia and five outfield release probably going to get drafted late still. But I think the odds are long of him having a repeat season in 2022, particularly in that home run column. I don't know how I missed this got to. I probably should have led with this, but the Rangers also signed Cole Calhoun to a one-year deal. So obviously...

Can't imagine how you miss that. How did I miss that one? And apparently they are still in contact. The Rangers are with Javier Baez. and with Trevor's story. So they are still trying to add some more offense. We'll see what happens. There was this tweet from Jeff Passon two hours ago.

The madness is just beginning. This is going to be a wail of 24 hours. So obviously we have that deadline looming on December 1st where the entire league goes into a lockout so we could see a few more big moves happen before then. For Scott, I'm Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Tuesday morning.

Bye-bye.