Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Matt Chapman to Blue Jays, Chris Sale Hurt & More! - Emergency Podcast (3/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 16, 2022

Join our FBT March Madness Bracket for a chance to join our listener leagues- http://cbssports.com/FBTbrackets We have moves! Let's start with Matt Chapman who was traded to the Blue Jays (0:45). Chapman or Josh Donaldson? ... Kyle Schwarber signed a four-year deal with the Phillies (6:20)! ... Japanese star Seiya Suzuki signed a five-year deal with the Cubs (10:51). Where should he be ranked? ... Chris Sale has a stress fracture (18:26). What happens now? ... Eddie Rosario is back with the Braves AND Fernando Tatis Jr. will have wrist surgery (22:22). 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. I guess everybody was waiting until Wednesday to make moves because, oh my, there's a lot going down in the baseball world right now. Welcome into an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on March 16th. I am Frank Stanfield, joined by Chris Towers. And here's what we have thus far. I'm sure there's going to be more throughout the day. Matt Chapman has been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. Kyle Schwerber signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Japanese star Sayas Suzuki signed with the Chicago Cubs. Chris Sale is out. with a stress fracture in his rib cage and we just got a few more as well. Eddie Rosario back to the Braves and Fernando Tatis will have wrist surgery. We'll get to all of it. Let's start with Matt Chapman

traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for three prospects starting pitcher Gunner Hoagland, infielder Kevin Smith, left hand pitcher Zach Logue and a reliever named Kirby Sneed. Chris, it was a disappointing season for Chapman his first year back from hip surgery.

Hitches to two, 10, 27 homers, 72 RBI. But this is somebody who finished as a top 70 player in each of 2018 and 2019. Now joining one of the best lineups in baseball. How far do you plan to move Matt Chapman up in your rankings, if at all? Not very, especially when you're just talking about the third base rankings, because I already had him rank pretty high. I had him 14th just behind Josh Donaldson, who I just recently moved up.

He's about 22 spots below him in the rankings. Before the trade in the overall, I think I'll probably move him closer to Chapman so that he's kind of in a tier, closer to Donaldson, so he's kind of in a tier with Donaldson and DJ Lemayhew and Yon Moncada, and a little bit ahead of like Luis Arise and Cabrion Hayes. So I think that's probably the right range for him. The last couple of years have definitely been disappointing for Matt Chapman. We've seen a gigantic jump in his strikeout rate. The power hasn't been quite as impressive. and the batting average has sunk as a result of it. So all of those things are pretty bad signs,

but it's also worth pointing out that he had a pretty serious hip injury in 2020 that he had surgery on in the offseason and he was coming back from that surgery in 2021. And you did see decline in his defensive numbers in both 2020 and 2021. That indicates that, you know, the hip was probably playing a pretty big role in that. The question for 2022 and beyond is whether, you know, like Buster Posey, who came back from hip surgery following the 2020 season that he didn't play in and had this huge resurgence and put together one of the better seasons by a catcher in 2021. So I think that's the question is how much do you think he can bounce back?

I think there's plenty of upside. I've always looked at Matt Chapman as someone who could make a very big leap leaving Oakland because a lot of the underlying numbers are very good. he hits the ball really, really hard. I mean, prior to 2021, his average exit velocity was 92.7 miles per hour or higher three straight years. He had an 18% barrel rate in 2020, 12.1% in 2019. The strikeout rate has gotten to become a problem. And if he strikes out at 30% rates moving forward, he's probably not the guy who can still be a very, very good hitter while striking out 30% of the time. I don't think he can be a Joey Gallo or Giancarlo-Stanton type.

I think the ceiling's probably lower. But if he can get back to being around an average strikeout rate guy like he was prior to 2020, I think the move to Toronto can be a really big boon for his production. I think you could see him get back to being a low to mid-30s homer guy. And obviously the Blue Jays lineup is really, really strong. So I think this absolutely increases his upside. to a point where it's probably worth the risk as a low-end starting third baseman. And we will take all the help at third base that we can possibly get.

He doesn't come without risk. Again, the injuries, the strikeouts for Matt Chapman, but the team context, the lineup, the ballpark that he's moving to, all fantastic here for Matt Chapman. And there were some signs in the second half. You look at the surface level numbers, they weren't good, batting average OPS, still not great. 18% barrel rate in the second half last year.

That was six best among qualified hits. hitters. So maybe a sign of things to come for Matt Chapman this upcoming season. Chris, who would you rather have now? I think you might have mentioned this, but Chapman versus Josh Jonathan. I think it's a pretty interesting debate. Obviously, both guys have their risks, but both in really good lineups right now. Yeah, I think the biggest risk with Josh Donaldson is mostly just playing time. Obviously, his age is a bit of a risk in that there's a chance at the bottom could fall out, but we've seen very few signs of that. He still impacts the ball incredibly well. was still very productive on a per game basis last season.

So I think Josh Donaldson has to be ranked a little bit higher than Chapman, but it's one spot in the third base rankings of three spots in the overall rankings. I think it's very close. Chapman probably has more upside. If he can get that strikeout rate back down, you know, I could see a situation where Chapman hits 275 with 35 homers and, you know, 200 runs in RBI. That's not out of the question.

I don't think Josh Donaldson can get there, especially with the counting stats. So it's a risk-reward question. And I think Chapman has both more risk and more reward. But there are more question marks in his profile than Donald's. All right. It was a pretty nice prospect haul for the Oakland A's here. Gunner Hoagland was the first round pick in 2021 for the Toronto Blue Jays. Infielder Kevin Smith.

He's put up some big numbers in the minors that hasn't translated yet at the big league level. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets seen. opportunity to start right out of the gate for the Oakland A's. And I would say keep an eye on Kirby Sneed because he has 23 saves in the minors and some pretty good numbers as a reliever. So maybe he can work his way into the closer mix. Look, the Oakland A's are not done. It wouldn't surprise me if they trade Lutrovino, if they trade, you know, a couple other pitchers, couple other hitters here. So wouldn't surprise me again if Kirby Sneed works his way into the closer mix for the Oakland A's. Let's get into Kyle Schorber. He signed with the Phillies on a four-year

$79 million deal finishes the 84th overall player in Roto last season, averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game. That was tied for 15th among outfielders with Yerdon Alvarez and Cedric Mullins. Schwerber last year when he played was absolutely ridiculous. 32 homers over 113 games and now joins an even better ballpark. I mean, according to Stackass, Schwerber hit 32 homers last year. That would have been 38 in Citizens Bank Park. So what do you think about this move, Chris,

Swarber to the Phillies? For Kyle Schorber's fantasy value, I think it's nothing but good. It raises some interesting questions for the Phillies as far as defensive positioning and defensive ability, but those are not anything new for the Philadelphia Phillies. They've been pretty awful defensively for a long time. So I guess that's not that big of a concern. He's going to play every day. I don't think there's any question about that. Schorber's not a liability against lefties in the way that someone like Jesse Winker is.

So, you know, Schwab is an interesting case. And there's a handful of guys like this. Marcus Simeon's another one who we've talked about a lot where basically he's sandwiched two awesome seasons around an awful 2020. And it kind of feels like you can just throw the 2021 out, right? It was a weird season. You were facing only a handful of pitchers from two different divisions. You were, you know, you had restrictions on travel and what you could. and couldn't do and all that stuff.

And so it just, and just the sample was small. So when you look at Chorber, 871 OPS, 38 homers in 2019, 32 homers and 113 games in 2021 with an 928 OPS. Overall, over the past three seasons, you're looking at a 245 batting average, 862 OPS, per 162 game averages of 40 homers, 93 RBI, 93 runs. So I think he is someone who you absolutely look at as. a high-end power hitter who, based on where he's going in ADP, we've talked about a lot. I think we all like him quite a bit.

And just to give some context to the park factors that we're dealing with, Philadelphia Citizens Bank Park. According to Stadcast, Park Factors, has a home run park factor for left-handed batters of 118, so 18% better than the league average. The Red Sox, where he played, you know, at the end of last season was a 91 park factor for home runs for lefties. And so, you know, you look at his production with the Red Sox and only seven home runs and 41 games, oh, that's not great. The context of where that happened was quite important. And Washington, I think, is, you know, more like a neutral park. So I think Kyle Schwerber has, I don't know, he's definitely top 10 in terms of chances to hit 40 home runs. And I think this ballpark move only helps. You know, I'm not sure I'm going to move him up in

my rankings much, but that's already because I had him pretty high. At outfield, I have Kyle Schwerber 24th, just behind J.D. Martinez, just ahead of Cody Ballinger, Chris Bryantia, Rosa Raina. So I think there's a chance that you're getting really high-end production for Kyle Schwerver. Yeah, and I think as we see with many players, Chris, you know, once they sign, they start to creep up a little bit in ADP. And Kyle Schwerber right now is going as the 35th outfielder off the board at pick 115.4. I'm thinking that he moves up

at least around. I think he climbs inside the top 100, right around that range of you know, Bellinger, Brian Reynolds, Mitch Hanager. I think that's probably

where we're going to see Kyle Schwerber wind up in terms of ADP. And he's worth it. It would not surprise me one bit, Chris, if at the end of the season, we look at Schwerber

the way that we look at guys like Pete Alonzo or Matt Olson now, right? Someone who can hit 250, 260 with 40 to 45 home runs. Just would not surprise me one bit. A reminder to join our FBT March Madness Bracket game. The winner not only gets a spot in one of our listener leagues, but also a $100 gift card

to Paramount Plus. With P Plus, you can watch college hoops, Champions League Soccer, Golf, Football, and the brand new series, Halo streaming on March 24th. You can join at CBSports.com slash FBT brackets. The link is in the podcast and the YouTube description. Let's move on to Japanese star, Sayas is. Suzuki, who signed with the Chicago Cubs on a five-year $85 million deal. Very interesting player here coming over in the prime of his career, 27 years old.

Last season in Japan, Suzuki hit 317 with 38 homers and nine steals. He does have a 25-25 season under his belt over in Japan. Chris, we were talking beforehand, and typically it's pretty tough to value players coming over to the United States, whether it's from Japan or Korea, because obviously those players are coming here because they put up massive numbers. And then on top of that, it's not really the best landing spot with the Cubs

because of their lineup, team context. He's going to play. There's no doubt about that, but I kind of worry about how the skills translate and the landing spot with the Chicago Cubs. What do you think? The landing spot's not a bad one. It's not a good lineup, but...

And Chris is gone. So I will continue. here until we get Chris back on the feed, but we were just talking about Seya Suzuki again, a very interesting skill set, someone who has this massive uppercut swing. That's what Scott has said about him before. And I know he's someone that you could be drafting in first year player drafts right now. Again, that is Sayas Suzuki. He's probably like a top five or six player in first year player drafts for those playing in Dynasty leagues. But let's talk about his redraft value here, Chris. He's going around pick 190. And we were talking beforehand. It sounds like you like.

him a little bit more than that. So talk to me about Sayy Suzuki. Yeah, I think you, there's a lot to like about the skill set. Look, it's, it's hard to know exactly how players will adjust to making the leap from the Japanese professional, you know, Nippon professional baseball league to the major leagues, because it's not just the level of competition that they have to adjust to, but it's the whole cultural adjustment. It's having never seen any of these guys in live action outside of maybe the World Baseball Classic or, you know, some other exhibition games. You have the, you know, living in a new country, adjusting to all that. You know, you never know how someone's going to react to all of that.

And look, you can't take Suzuki's numbers in Japan at face value because, you know, he would be one of the best players in Major League Baseball if you did that. Last season, he had 38 homers and an OPS north of 1,000. So I'm not expecting that. You know, Shohei Otani, even as good as he's been in the majors, has never matched the best season he had as a 21-year-old in Japan. The level of competition just isn't comparable between NPB and MLB. You're probably looking at something more like AAA. The good news is we do have a decent sample size at this point of guys making the leap from NPB to MLB.

And what that gives us is a way to translate those stats with some degree of accuracy, not, you know, 100% obviously, but, you know, I'm looking at a piece that Dan Zimborski wrote at Fangraphs back in February, so about a month ago, talking about what his projections would look like in the Zip system for Sayu Suzuki in a neutral park. And he has him as a 278 hitter with 23 homers, 12 steals, 85 runs, 85 RBI, 81 runs. That's pretty good. You know, that's not a superstar. It's not necessarily even an all-star caliber player, although, you know, Suzuki can play defense like he did in Japan when he was a three-time gold glover.

You know, maybe for the Cubs themselves, that helps. But that's a pretty good player. And the thing to keep in mind is, you know, looking at the research, he was playing, the team he was playing for Hiroshima, Toyo Karp. They played in a, in Mazda Stadium, which had the second worst home run park factor of any park in the Nupon professional. professional baseball league. So, you know, that was a tough place for him to hit. The fact that he was consistently among the better home run hitters in Japan in spite of that, I think is a pretty good sign. Wrigley Field for right-handed hitters is a pretty neutral environment overall, neutral for home runs, neutral for pretty much everything. So don't think the park will be holding

him back. And, you know, Suzuki looks like he's got a pretty interesting skill set for fantasy specifically. You know, the 20 homer 15 steel potential, if he's got that, is really what makes him an intriguing option. I think putting it all together, I think somewhere in the Lordus Guerrille, Jared Kelnick range makes sense. For me, that's between 100 and 135.

Overall, outfield are 31 through 35. I think that's probably where I'm going to slot him. probably 33 or 34, you know, right ahead of Austin Meadows. And Jared Kalanick, I think, is where I'd go. Because I think there's similar potential and similar risk for both of those guys as Sayas Suzuki. Yeah, I think that's a good range. I've got Guriel at 34. I've got Kelnick at 35.

And then I have Dalton Varshow. That's a wonky ranking because he's catcher in outfield eligible. But Jorge Saler, Eddie Rosario, Hunter Renfro, I think he's probably somewhere right in the mix there. You know, 37 through 40 in my outfield ranks. And the ADP for Say Suzuki right now is a 190. So that'll move up. Yeah, I mean, it's no doubt going to climb. But, you know, if he climbs as much as you did, as you're talking, Chris,

I mean, we're talking about like four or five rounds worth of value. So keep that in mind. You mentioned what the Zips projection system might wind up having him at based on that article. Steamer has him at 282, 26 homers, nine steals. And that's in 130 games. with great plate discipline, a 384 on base percentage. So somebody who might actually be pretty valuable in points leagues as well if he walks as much as he's expected to.

Yeah, I mean, that's a thing for him. And obviously, strikeouts in MPB are a lot lower than the R&MLB overall. But last season, he had 88 walks to 89 strikeouts for his career. He's got a 15% strikeout rate. I think those will all change. I don't think he's going to be a one-for-one walk to strikeout rate guy. but hopefully he can be a fairly average strikeout rate hitter. That would be the hope in which case, you know, I think the whole package looks pretty interesting for fantasy.

Let's move on to some bad news. Unfortunately, Chris Sale diagnosed with a stress fracture on the right side of his ribcage and will not be ready for the start of the season. There is no timetable, but the Red Sox have said this is a matter of weeks, not days. So Chris, obviously we have to lower Chris Sale. how far are you thinking we move him down the rankings? Yeah, it's tough without a specific timetable right now. And, you know, a stress fracture by its very nature would seem to be especially tough to predict

because you're not necessarily talking about a, you know, an acute injury. You're not talking about a ligament. It's just something that kind of you probably just can't do anything for a while until it goes away. And if you rush it too soon, you run the risk of re-injury. or making it worse. And so I think there's a lot of risk here. And when you're talking about Chris Sale versus some of the other guys,

and he was an NSP2, I think, for most people, I don't think he can be anymore. And I think it's probably more like SP3 or 4 because he's presently injured. You know, he didn't enter the season with no risk. I think either you or Scott had him as a bust at one point. Yeah, I had him. I was lower on him than the consensus. I just think the age, Tommy John's surgery, the way he pitches.

He didn't look amazing last year. You know, obviously the caveat of coming back from Tommy John surgery, you know, is relevant. But he wasn't classic Chris Sale last season either. So there was some performance risk. There was obviously injury risk just because he was coming back where he's, you know, had recent Tommy John surgery, given his age and his workload. And now you have the fact that he's actually hurt. And so you look at someone who I'm down on, Logan Webb, who I think has injury risk. He's not presently hurt.

Blake Snell has injury risk. Pablo Lopez, injury risk, all those guys have injury risk, but not presently hurt. So Carlos Rodon, also not currently injured. So I think you have to move Chris Sale below all of those guys. And so for me, my first thought was down to 34 at starting pitcher. Because it's possible that this is just like a four to six week thing. and he's back, you know, in late April. But it could also linger beyond that,

and it could also just mess up his, you know, timing, his readiness for the season. I'm always worried about the spring training injuries, especially just because if a guy tries to rush back, does that throw him off his game, both performance and injury-wise? So I think Eduardo Rodriguez at 33 is kind of the last starting pitcher I feel really good about,

like that I'm confident in, both from a performance and, an injury standpoint. So I moved Chris Sale between Eduardo Rodriguez and Dylan Sees. So the 33, 33, 34, 35 for that trio. Sees has lots of risk himself, lots of upside. I think sails in the same boat. We'll see, you know, what it looks like in the long run.

But I could also like Clayton Kirchall is an interesting comp for Chris Sale. Another guy. Lots of injury risk, not currently injured. And I think the performance, you know, risk. you know, risk is relatively similar for the two of them. Yeah, I was just going to ask you, Saylor, Kershaw. Chris Sale is SP15 off the board, according to ADP, pick 53.6. And it, for him to fall all the way down- I wouldn't take him inside of the top 100. Okay. So, who would you rather have sale or Clayton Kershaw? I do have sale a little bit higher, but we'll, we'll see what

the next couple of days, you know, bring for both of them. You know, I want to see Kershaw start to get some working in the spring. All right. Clayton Kirshaw's ADP is 128.8. So yeah, sail would have to drop about you know, 70, 80 spots here to wind up around where Clayton Kershaw is and it might be warranted based on this injury. A few more things.

Eddie Rosario back to the Atlanta Braves on a two year 18 million dollar deal. And Chris, I've talked Eddie Rosario up as a sleeper, more so just under value. He's going just outside the top 200 picks from each of 2018 through 2020, each of those seasons, he finished 53rd overall or better in Roto League.

So I have no reason to believe he won't come close to doing that. I know got off to a slow star last year, but once he got traded to the Braves, he was awesome. He was great in the postseason. Some power, a little bit of speed, solid batting average. I love this move for Eddie Rosario, heading back to the Atlanta Braves. I struggle with players like Rosario, just because I don't think he's all that good, like in real life. Yeah, he doesn't walk very much.

He's a low OVP guy. He's a bad defender. So it's like, I don't know if he's like guaranteed an everyday job if things go wrong or the fact that the Braves did trade for him last season and then brought him back does, you know, seem like a good sign in that regard. They do seem to like him. But yeah, I think if he's healthy and he's playing every day, he should be a pretty good fantasy option. You know, the hopefully won't hurt you in batting average. He is a pretty good contact hitter. batting average not necessarily as good as you would think, given how much he makes contact,

because he's not like an elite quality of contact guy. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think he gets back to being like a 275 guy. And maybe not the 32 homers that he hit in 2019, but 20 to 25 decent run production, hopefully a little bit of speed. You got 11 steals out of him last season that matched a career high in only 111 games. So all in all, I think Rosario is, yeah, presently underval. for sure, not someone that I'm going to beat the door down for. I think I'd rather have Sayas Suzuki. But, you know, the 50-ish range in outfield seems reasonable.

All right. Let's wrap up here. Fernando Tatis is undergoing left wrist surgery on Wednesday, which means he will likely miss up to three months. I mean, that was the original timetable that we heard the other day when they talked about, you know, the reality of the situation and that he could have surgery. And Chris, I believe that we've ranked. him all along as if he was going to have that surgery. So we did a mock draft the other day. He went with the first pick of the eighth round. That was 85th overall.

Would you take him higher or lower than that at this point? That's higher than I'm willing to go. I think he probably should be more in the 10th round range. At least for me, I just, because the way you look at it now is, okay, three months is probably the minimum. So you're probably looking at a return around the middle of June in a best case scenario. So we'll say June-ish, late June. But then you're not 100% sure he's going to come back and be himself coming off this injury.

So that's a concern. Then there's a chance that, hey, maybe it doesn't heal right. And we have some setbacks. So I think the risk here is significant. There's real risk that he just misses half the season. And I think the upside is probably only like 90 to 100 games in the best case scenario. Now, 90 to 100 games of Fernando Tatis, if he's Fernando Tatis, is incredibly valuable. And if you combine that, I did this exercise the other day, if you combine 100 games of Fernando

Tatis with 40 games of Brandon Crawford over the course of a season and you just take their, their projections from the bat projection system, you would get a 278 average, 37 homers, 19 steals, and like, 195-ish runs in RBI, which would probably still be borderline first round production, maybe mid-second round production, but it's not that different from what you're probably expecting from Kyle Tucker.

So there's definitely still value in taking the chance on Fernando Tatis, even in the aftermath of this, but I'm not going to do it with a sixth round pick. I'm not going to take him ahead of someone like Christian Yelich, who has a ton of risk of his own,

but again, not currently injured. So, you know, that's, if you're talking about 70th range, or, you know, where he went in that draft, I think you're probably passing over too much value. Even like Randy or Rosarano, who I'm down on, I think I'd rather take, although that one's saying it out loud didn't feel right,

so I'm not 100% sure on it. But yeah, I would have Fernando Tatis outside. I have Fernando Tatis outside of the top 100. Yeah, each of us, Scott, Chris, and myself, we have Tatis between 108 and 112 in our top 300 rotos slash category rankings. So yeah, not going to take him around that spot where he went in the mock draft the other day, which was, again, 85th overall. Real quick, before we wrap up, the Yankees are talking to the A's about Frankie Montas

and Sean Mania. I don't know if they want to acquire both of them or just one of them, but either way, Sounds like we could have more moves coming here on Wednesday. We're going to wrap for Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. We'll be back in later on tonight, maybe sooner. Bye-bye.