Fantasy Baseball Today - Matt McLain Injury Update & ADP Battles! Elly De La Cruz vs. Gunnar Henderson! (3/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 21, 2024

JOIN OUR FBT BRACKET GROUP- https://shorturl.at/aeZ06 Matt McLain will not be ready for Opening Day because of a shoulder injury (3:11). ... The Dodgers have fired Shohei Ohtani's interpreter (8:52). ... News (11:26): Aaron Judge was back in the lineup Wednesday. ... Wyatt Langford hit another homer and Casey Mize continues to impress (15:37). ... ADP Battles! First up, Elly De La Cruz vs. Gunnar Henderson (21:20). ... Manny Machado or Royce Lewis (25:22)? ... Framber Valdez vs. Freddy Peralta (28:35). ... Nolan Jones or Cody Bellinger (33:22)? ... Jazz Chisholm vs. Christian Yelich (35:38). ... Logan GIlbert or Grayson Rodriguez (40:00)? ... Zach Eflin vs. Jesus Luzardo (42:28). ... Triston Casas or Christian Walker (45:20)? ... Dylan Cease vs. Joe Musgrove (48:40). ... Vinnie P vs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (52:31). ... George Springer or Seiya Suzuki (54:25)? ... Evan Phillips vs. Paul Sewald (56:13). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. There's never a dull day in the world of baseball. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, March 21st. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White.

No Chris Towers because he was up in the wee hours of the morning to watch the Dodgers and the Padres at 6 a.m. Eastern time, so we told them to take the night off and rest up. I mean, you had to see that coming, right? I don't know exactly what Chris's schedule is, but I can say personally, I am more often going to bed around 6 a.m. than getting up at 6 a.m. so that was never going to happen for me.

He somehow decided it was a good idea. but I think he's paying for it now. Sure is. And we're going to wait until both of those Dodgers-Padres games are completed to talk about them because the timing is just weird. We're recording right now at 11.15 p.m. If we recap the first game, you'll be listening to this podcast by the time the second game is over. So it just, it doesn't line up, it doesn't make sense.

We'll wait for both games to be done and then we'll talk about them. Today on the show, we've got 80P battles, the latest on Matt McLean and much more. but let's start with that injury to Matt McLean. And we'll talk about that timeline first because this was kind of a weird one. He was scratched on Monday night with shoulder soreness. And then on Tuesday, the Reds came out. They downplayed the injury. And then on Wednesday morning, manager David Bell said that, quote,

all of the options are on the table, including surgery after Matt McLean underwent an MRI on his shoulder. And the last that we've heard is that McLean is headed for a second opinion and won't be ready for the start of the season. Scott, it seems like there is a very wide range of outcomes right now to starting with Matt McLean going on the IL back in a couple of weeks and he's fine to him having shoulder surgery and maybe missing the entire season.

Yeah, it's funny. I mean, even earlier in the day, David Bell said he wasn't sure if he would start the year on the IAL, if he would start the year on the IL or if he would have surgery. So about the, about his wider range. of outcomes as it gets here for Matt McLean. Can't say I have a good feeling about it if they're not ruling out surgery quickly. It is to his non-throwing arm.

So depending on the nature of the injury, we still don't know exactly what it is to that shoulder. It's more realistic to think he could play through it than if it was his throwing shoulder. But I don't know, I moved McLean down to around the 150 range of my rankings. That just seems to be where vague injury. vaguely injured players are beginning to accumulate. I don't know if I'd actually be that motivated to take him if he made it there until we have more clarity on this situation.

I'm thrilled that I got my first share of him in the podcast league draft just last night. Are you the fantasy jinx this year, Scott? I might be. Hopefully that doesn't discourage anyone from listening. I mean, you could... So, I mean, you're referring also to I built my Tout Wars team around Garrick Cole.

I had a little more forewarning with this Matt McLean injury. He had the red injury tag next to his name last night, but I trusted the reporting that didn't seem like it was a big deal. It seemed like he'd be ready for opening day. Okay. And then a day later, we find out it was, they're holding out on us, Frank. They're holding out.

This was something you could have brought to my attention yesterday, or however the quote goes. I'll be fine. It's a shallow league. there'll be somebody on the waiver wire who can get me through. But it is disappointing. And if I'm drafting today, I'm obviously not planning to, not having Matt McLean be a major part of my plans.

It's wait and see. I agree, you know, around that 150 range for now. But you can pass on him and wait to the point where the risk of him missing the season is worth the reward. Whatever that point is, you know, if it's a shallower league, Maybe it's around that 150 range. If it's a deeper league, maybe it's a little bit later on. We've talked a lot about life-finding away for the Cincinnati Reds,

but we didn't necessarily want it to be like this because they're injuries, suspensions, everything's starting to pile up now. So Matt McLean, T.J. Friedel, going to start the year on the IL, Nelvi Marte is suspended 80 games. It looks like Jonathan India will play second base for the team, though. After all that. I did see a lineup on Wednesday. the Reds lineup had Jonathan India and left field

and Spencer Steer at second base. Either way, I think both of those players are going to be playing a lot for the Reds. Rastor Resource now has Mike Ford as the Reds DH, and they just traded for Santiago Espinal, likely to help out with infield depth. So all of a sudden, all of that Reds depth, it's not completely gone, but oof, things have changed, Scott.

Life will crush you. It doesn't just find, away, it will destroy you, apparently, is the lesson to be learned here. Pride goeth before a fall. Look at our embarrassment of riches. And now, a scarcity. I got to tell you, I was leaning toward picking the Reds to win the NL Central. Not sure I'm leaning that way anymore. Not sure about that. That division feels wide open, man. Let's go pirates. Do let's do the pirates. That would be so fun, man. Between O'Neill

Cruz and let's get the prospects up there, Henry Davis have a big year, Paul Skeens, let's do it, man, the Pirates. We are officially the Pirates podcast. Anyway, let's move on, promote a few things. The FBT newsletter. Please sign up if you haven't already. CBSports.com slash newsletters. Chris

has a great job. Every day, sending something out. If you go to the website, you can click on the FBT logo, punch in your email address, and it's free. So why not? And it's bracket time. And we're kind of closing in. This is kind of your last chance to join in on the brackets. Get those in now on the CBS Sports app before they lock at 12 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday.

You can play in men's and women's pools with friends and join our challenges for the chance to win a new Nissan Rogue and trips to the 2025 final four. Get the CBS Sports app or visit CBS Sports.com slash play to start filling out your brackets. No purchase necessary. See terms and run. rules for details. And if you want to compete against Scott, Chris, and me, we actually have a bracket dedicated to this very podcast. So you can scan the QR code on the screen or click on the link in the pod and YouTube description to get in on the fun. If you joined our bracket in previous years, then you're already in. All you have to do is go in and make your picks. The winner of the bracket group will get a shout out here on the podcast. Let's continue on with the rest of the

news and notes from Wednesday, Scott, and let's talk about Chohei Otani. His interpreter Ipe Mizuhara was fired by the Dodgers after questions surrounding at least $4.5 million in wire transfers sent from Otani's bank account to a bookmaking operation. Multiple sources, including Mizuhara, said that Otani does not gamble and that the funds covered Mizuhara's losses. And that came directly from the ESPN article that I read earlier. That's all we know right now. So heading into the biggest draft weekend, Scott, what are you doing with Chohei Otani? Well, it's a little more complicated than that, right? Yes.

Because that originally that was the claim from Otani's interpreter. But then now Otani's attorneys, it's difficult to say, Otani's attorneys are saying that a great theft was committed against Otani. So it's pretty messy. We know the interpreter's been fired, and I think there's a chance more will come out in the weeks to come. But I don't know how quickly it'll come out. I don't know what's going to come out.

I don't know. There's a lot up in the air, obviously. Does it concern me if I'm investing a first-round pick in Otani? A little. It concerns me a little. I was lower on him in the consensus anyway, so he's not somebody. I was drafting much to begin with, so I don't think my approach

necessarily changes. And I asked people on Twitter, I had a little poll going, does this change your approach to Otani if you're drafting this weekend? And almost three to one, the answer was no. So it doesn't seem like people are changing their approach

too much. And I don't think it's going to be a scenario where like, oh, Otani slides to, you know, late in round two, early round three, do you have to make a decision? I don't think it's going to be one of those scenarios. I think most people are going to draft them as they always were drafting him. And we'll see what plays. We'll see what ends up happening with this. I saw Chris Towers ask on Twitter if there were any drafts done tonight and if Shohai Otani was slipping at all.

And there were, it looks like there were at least two made event drafts from the NFBC where Otani went sixth in one and 10th in another. So it doesn't seem like he seems to be slipping down draft boards at all again. That is Shohei Otani. Aaron Judge returned to the Yankees lineup and started in center field on Wednesday. He finished one for one with a double, a walk, and two runs scored. So this is good news for now. Let's see how his body bounces back and hopefully he plays in some back to back games. And if all as well, then, you know, he should maybe climb back into that late first round range. Kevin Gosman felt good after a 36 pitch simulated game. The next step is to get into a game with the goal being 60 to 65 pitches early

next week. So that's good news for now on Kevin Gosman. He's been slipping a little bit, you know, three, four turn. I think in 12 team leagues is where I've seen Kevin Gosman going recently. Blake Snell will throw a bullpen on Thursday and the Giants will set up a schedule for him after that. Snell acknowledged that he won't be ready for opening day, which was expected. We had some roster moves by the Dodgers before that series started, and Walker Bueller was officially placed on the IL. So was Emmett Sheehan, though he was listed with right forearm inflammation, which is a little bit different than general soreness.

So that was a little surprising to me. He's got the Emmett Sheehan right forearm inflammation. Yeah, I thought it was a shoulder, actually. I don't know. I hadn't heard anything about the forearm, I guess. But yeah, I don't know when he's going to come back. Gavin Stone may end up pitching so well that there's not much urgency to bring Sheehan back. I still like the upside of Sheehan, but there are enough higher-end pitchers that are IL stashes that tend to sink in drafts because of it.

That I don't know that I ever get around to taking him at Sheehan anymore. All right, Josh Young, who's been out since February, is likely to be ready for opening day. Sunny Gray will face minor leaguers in a game-like situation on Friday based on how things go. the Cardinals will make a determination as to where they will slot gray into their rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez left Tuesday night start with left lat tightness and still felt some discomfort while being examined on Wednesday. Even with that, the D-BAC's medical staff was apparently encouraged after the examination. Edward Cabrera threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, his first time throwing off a mound since he was diagnosed with a right-shoulder impingement

just over a week ago. Jung Hu Li, who's been slowed by a hamstring tweak, was back in the lineup on Wednesday. I think he picked up two hits, too. He's had a really good spring. The Brewers appear intent on South Freelick opening the season as the primary third baseman against right-handed pitching,

and Max Kepler was scratched Wednesday because of left pectoral tightness. Let's take our first break when we return. Some quick standouts, and then ADP battles will do that right after this. Welcome back in and let's quickly highlight some standouts from Wednesday. Another day, Scott, another big game for Wyatt Langford, who you did draft in last night's draft. So maybe you're, you know, you're not the fantasy jinx after all.

Well, it's a long way to go. Wyatt Langford went two for four with his sixth home run. He's now 19 for 49 this spring. That's a 388 batting average with a 1242 OPS. I saw this tweet from Jim Bowden who said, Wyatt Langford just became the first player to hit at least six spring training home runs at age 22 or younger since Freddie Freeman did it 12 years ago and Ryan Zimmerman did it 18 years ago. I don't like this analysis generally, Scott, like people saying,

but look at who he's hitting the home runs off of. But I will just throw it out there, add a little bit more context, more perspective if people want that. Here are the six players that Langford's home runs have come off of. Hayden Birdsong, Prelander Barrowa, Brian Shaw, Will Smith, Buck Farmer,

and Alan Boussinitz. Do with that what you will. I think it's still impressive what he's doing. It sounded like half of them were against legit major leaguers. None of them were against Aces. For sure.

That's fair to say. But yeah, I don't know. He hasn't officially made the team yet. And I'm not going to say with 100% certainty that he will, but I think he will.

And I think he will. and I think it'll go well. I'm not sure what more there is to say about it at this point. Right. We're talking about Wyatt Langford a lot, but, you know, for a good reason, he's probably the biggest riser throughout spring training, at least in terms of ADP.

Let's talk about Casey Meis, four shutout innings with four strikeouts, velocity on his fastball slider and splitter all remain up. He averaged nearly 95 miles per hour in this outing. He's had a good spring right around a strikeout per inning. The problem, Scott, there's only two rotation spots for Matt Manning,

Reese Olson and Casey Mize. Who do you think gets those spots? I think Reese Olson gets one. I think the other one. I've been leaning Matt Manning this whole time. They've all looked better. They've all been throwing harder this spring. The Tigers seem to have a good thing going with their pitching.

And I talked about how their pitching coach seems like a rising star. I talked about that just yesterday. So they almost can't pick wrong at this point, and whoever is left out is life finds a way, right? There's going to be attrition within the pitching ranks, and so he'll get his chance soon enough. But I guess I'd lean slightly Matt Manning over Casey Mize. I'm not sure either is to the level of being draftable on a 12-team league,

partly because there's that uncertainty. But they're both interesting. They both have, they're both former high draft picks, first-round picks, My eyes was the first overall pick, and they just haven't lived up to their potential yet, but if they're throwing harder this spring, you know, that could be the start of it. Mike Soroka has quietly had a very strong spring with the White Sox, four innings, one unearned run with five strikeouts on Wednesday, a 138 ERA, 0.92 whip, 17 strikeouts, over 13 innings.

And I read a quote after this outing from Soroka, when everything is loose and clean out front through my release, everything seems to move a ton more. It goes where I want and is usually a tick up too. So kind of feels like he's figuring something out and sounds like he's hitting his spots. Maybe velocity is up a tad based on that quote at least. Scott, it's been a long time since we've seen Mike Soroka healthy.

He's dealt with multiple Achilles injuries. I believe some shoulder-related stuff in the past as well. He gets a clean slate here. He's going to start in the White Sox rotation. Anything here, Deep Sleper? I actually took him in a score sheet league which is a 24 teamer where the pitching ranks thinned out tremendously. So did I.

You got him in the other one that I'm in, yes. And yeah, I mean, sure he's a deep sleeper. He was someone we all liked until he got hurt and even coming back from that second to Gilly's injury, we were intrigued last year by what he could do. We were hopeful that he would pick up where he left off and he's having a great spring. The strikeouts have been surprised.

surprisingly high because he wasn't really even a strikeout pitcher at his best. He was more of a ground ball and control guy. You know, like I was saying about Casey Meis and Matt Manning, we're at a point where the interesting, the sleeper options that have emerged the starting pitcher this spring, there are so many of them, that it's unlikely you're going to be able to draft them all. And I would put Soroka on the lower end at that list.

I would put it behind Gavin Stone. I would put it behind Jack Whartney. So I guess he's more of like a scout team sleeper because not many people are listening out there are playing in 2014 leagues like me and you, Frank. But yeah, I'm interested. I think there's a chance he could still redeem himself

and go on to have a solid career. And so I'll be keeping a close eye on Mike Soroka at the start of the season. All right, Mets, pitching prospect Christian Scott through four innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, had 11 swinging strikes on 59 pitches. And he's another name.

Throw him on the scout team early in the season. I think we'll see him up with the Mets at some point this year. And he's someone who's been climbing up the prospect ranks. Again, that is Christian Scott. And John Carlos Staten went three for three with a triple tongue. Three homers, eight RBI, three batted balls, over 108 miles per hour. If only, he could face Marco Gonzalez every single day.

That would be amazing. Let's do some ADP battle, Scott, using fantasy pros ADP, I did poll Twitter for some suggestions as well, took some of those, tried to find some polarizing players or maybe some players we haven't talked enough about. And let's start up top. In the third round of 12 team leagues, you might have the decision between Ellie Dela-Cruz at 27.6 and Gunner-Henderson, 31.2 is the ADP. Both are fun, young players who provide very different skill sets. We know Ellie Dela-Cruz, batting average, is probably going to be lower.

Lots of speed. Gunner Henderson, more of like a Jack of all trades kind of player, I think. Both are having solid springs as well. Ellie's been running. He's got five steals. Gunner Henderson's been, I think he has like 13 or 14 hits. So he's looked good despite like an oblique strain

early on in spring. Scott, if you're in the third round, you're looking for a hitter. I don't feel like either of us to target either of these players, but if you had to, who would you go with? Ellie de la Cruz or Gunner Henderson? I'd go L.A. de la Cruz. And I think I've come around to that maybe a little more recently.

I just think it's, look, Gunner Henderson looked great in his rookie season. I think he could be an early round type for years to come. But I think L.A. de la Cruz could be like a top five pick, potentially, because he is such a prolific base dealer. And that gives him a high floor. I think people talk about L.E. de la Cruz, like a boom or bust pick, because he hit under 200 in the second half after getting off to a hot start

when he was called up last year. His strikeout rate is very high, puts the ball on the ground a lot. Some concerning indicators there in his hitting profile. I get that. And there's a non-zero chance that he just slumped so badly.

He gets sent back down. That is within the range of outcomes for Ellie de la Cruz. But if he's just kind of bad, like hitting 220, he's still going to be stealing so much. many bases that he's going to be a must-start player. And that's true in points leagues too.

I mean, we're talking 50-60 steel potential here from Ellie De La Cruz. And if he does take a step forward as a hitter, if he is elevating the ball better, able to convert those massive exit velocities into home runs, maybe cut down on the strikeouts a little bit, then he's going to be a steal, you know, at the early in round three. So, L.A. Dela Cruz is somebody I've been gearing up to take before and just, it didn't work out. I'm not going to call him over, like an overpay here. You know, I think, I think the upside is enticing enough and the downside is higher than it gets credit for.

And I wrote L.A. Dela Cruz up as a bus back in January when his NFBC ADP was in the second round, and it still is. I looked at NFBC ADP over the past week. It's something like 21 or 22 for Ellie Dealer Cruz. So lots of hype around him still. You know, other ADP sources have come out since then. And we're into the third round here with Ellie Dealer Cruz. I think it's still too high for me. I just checked by rankings.

I have Gunner Henderson one spot higher. One thing I haven't mentioned with Ellie, and I don't know if we've talked about it in general, Scott. But with all these injuries to the Reds, I think that also helps raise the floor for him. where maybe before it was like a 5 to 10% chance Ellie Dealer Cruz gets sent down, maybe that's like a 1 to 2% chance now

just because they have so many injuries, right? And suspensions. So I just, I think the playing time is probably locked in a little bit more. With all that being said, I think I would still take Gunner Henderson. I think the floor is a little bit higher. They both have issues with splits.

They're both fun players, but I would lean with Gunner Henderson. I don't typically target either one in the third round. Just looking for either veterans, safer players, or pitchers in that range, typically for me. Let's move on to two third baseman, I guess previously, those two were third basement as well. But Manny Machado and Royce Lewis. Machado at Pick 51, Royce Lewis at 54.2. And Machado is still kind of working his way back from extensor tendon surgery in his right elbow.

He did start in game one against the Dodgers and Padres at designated hitter. I think eventually we'll see him back at third base of season. Royce Lewis has all the upside in the world. It's got 17 home runs and 70 career games, but injuries have been a problem. In the fifth round, who would you rather have Mani Machado or Royce Lewis? I'd rather have Mani Machado. It's absurd to me that, and thankfully it looks like it's changed,

but for the longest time there in draft prep season, Royce Lewis was going ahead of Machado on average. and that just didn't add up to me. I mean, I was impressed by what Royce Lewis did down the stretch last year. I think there's upside. He's not nearly as proven as Mani Machado because few players are.

Mani Machado has been like a second round fixed year, if not first round, occasionally, for a decade. And he has one kind of down season. Okay, he's coming off surgery, but it clearly hasn't affected his availability for opening day. He hit well this spring. Yeah, the one down season where he still, his 162 game pace was still like 35 homers and 105 RBI, and we're dropping them to round five?

I don't know. I'm surprised I haven't ended up with Machado in any league yet because I feel like he's a great bargain there. And I feel a lot more confident that he's going to deliver high-end numbers than Royce Lewis does. does, which again, isn't a knock on Lewis. It's just no comparison in terms of the trust that they've established with me. Yeah, I would agree with that too. And I was geared up to take Machado last night. If he made it to me, I was drafting at the end of round five.

He didn't make it that far. I wound up getting O'Neill Cruz, so I'm not going to complain about not getting Machado. But yeah, I haven't been able to draft him either. I feel like I very often am targeting pitching in rounds three through five. I think so. I think that's the same for me. Yeah, so I haven't wound up with a bunch of hitters in this range, but that's the point of doing this exercise,

is to help people who do like to draft hitters in that range. I agree with you. I would take Manny Machado. I think, again, there's massive upside with Royce Lewis. It's just I kind of want to see him do it before we're taking him inside the top 60 over the course of a full season. He just hasn't done that yet. And again, Manny Machado, almost every year for the last, maybe not quite a full decade,

but like eight years has been a first or second round pick. This is the one exception. Is Royce Lewis's upside better than that? It might be as good as that, but it's hard for me to believe it's better because how does it get better than that? Yep. Let's move on to two pitchers in the fifth round. Scott, Framber Valdez at pick 53.2 and Freddie Peralta at 56.4. different skill sets between these two.

We know Framber Valdez. More of a workhorse, more durable, certainly more durable. He either exceeds or is right around 200 innings pitched each of the past couple of years. Freddie Peralta has the higher strikeout upside and probably the higher upside in general. Like if Peralta stays healthy for 170 innings, he's probably going to be a top 10 to 12 starting pitcher. Though I don't know that we could expect him to do that. Who would you rather have Valdez or Peralta? Totally dependent on format.

Framber Valdez and points leagues for the volume. He's one of the better volume plays at starting pitcher and Freddie Peralta in Categories leagues, where volume doesn't matter as much and where he has the higher strikeout ceiling. He had more strikeouts between the two last year, even with the difference innings. And I think if Freddie Peralta is able to build up his workload,

take another step forward as far as that goes, he said he wants to throw 200 innings this year. I don't think he's going to throw 200 innings, but if he throws 180, I think there's going to be a big strikeout difference between him and Framber Valdez and the ERA and WIP might be comparable. But I think Peralta,

just by virtue of missing more bats, has more upside as far as that goes too. Yeah, I agree completely. I have Framber Valdez 13th in Head-Tead points and Freddie Peralta at 15th. And then in Roto and Categories leagues, I have Peralta. I think it's swapped 13th and then Frambervaldez at 14.

So I've talked a lot about this this offseason, Scott. You know, it's kind of dependent on like a feel of the draft too, whether or not I think I can get an innings eater or a high floor pitcher to pair with Peralta, then I would take him, like say you're drafting in the fourth round, like the end of the fourth round and Peralta, Logan Webb and Framber Valdez are all there. I'll take Peralta first and then hope I could pair him

with one of those high floor. innings guys. And I've talked a lot about trying to pair together different types of pitchers this offseason in terms of just roster construction. Paralta has more risk. I think those guys have a little bit higher floors. So that's kind of how it played out with. I don't know that I care about that in Roto leagues because again, even with the less volume, Peralta had more strikeouts than Christian Javier last year. So I don't think volume in a Roto league is valuable in and of itself. Usually it's just tied to building up a strikeout total. And yeah, I

guess it reinforces the ERA and WIP more, the more innings that are behind it. But if you're sacrificing something in ERA and WIP to get the innings eater as opposed to the lights out ratios guy, I don't know that that's worth it myself. The only thing is as much as I like Peralta's guy, I don't know if we could call him a lights out ratio guy, right? because he had like a 386 ERA overall last season. I,

okay, yeah, I mean, I guess you could take that tack. I wasn't talking specifically about him. I figured, yeah. But part of the reason he had a 386 ERA is because he got off to such a bad start last year. I mean, my hope for Peralta is that he can sustain

something closer to his, to what he did over his final 11 starts when he had a 244 ERA. I'm not projecting a 244 ERA for him, but, I'm not projecting a 380, what was it, 386 ERA for him either. I think, I think the most likely scenario for Peralta is somewhere in between those two. All right, let's take our final break.

When we return, we have more ADP battles here on fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in. Let's talk some more ADP battles using Fantasy Pros ADP. And next up, we have Nolan Jones versus Cody Bellinger, Scott. Identical ADPs right at the same spot. 52.4 for Nolan Jones, 52.6 for Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, we know, has the first base and outfield eligibility. Nolan Jones on most sites, including CBS, is outfield only.

But I do think on Yahoo, he has first base eligibility as well. They kind of feel like similar players, right? Like, if everything works out, they can go 25, 25. I guess Nolan Jones kind of does have that buffer of playing in Cores Field as well. So what do you think between Nolan Jones and Cody Bellinger? I have struggled with that one, and I wanted to check my rankings because I, yeah, I want to, hmm, I felt like I should move Nolan Jones ahead of Cody Bellinger in my Roto rankings. And I know in TGFBI, for instance, I believe I chose to take Nolan Jones ahead of Cody Bellinger because I think the downside risk is probably worse for Bellinger. and I'm not sure Nolan Jones' upside is any less.

I think for home runs and stolen bases, especially he has the higher ceiling. Cody Melinger probably has the higher batting average ceiling with the adjustments he made to strike approach, especially last year, cutting down on the strikeouts. But Nolan Jones himself at 297, he gets that bad bit boost from Coorsfield.

So I guess what I'm saying is, and I probably need to update this, my rankings. I do slightly prefer Nolan Jones, at least in Roto. Now, in points leagues, the strikeout disparity is significant between these two players. And I think that puts Cody Bellinger back ahead just to give you the point per game number to illustrate that. Cody Bellinger, or let's start with Nolan Jones. Nolan Jones headed points per game last year, 3.30. Cody Bellinger was 3.77. Now again, I'm factoring in some loss for Cody Ballinger.

I don't know what the extent will be. I don't think he'll be quite as good as last year, but that's a pretty big difference there, almost half a fantasy point per game. All right, let's do. Next up, we have Jazz Chishim at 64.8 versus Christian Yellich at Pick 70. And Jazz has been on a power binge recently in spring. He's been crushing some homers. We know the deal with him.

He has a bunch of upside. It's just he has really struggled to stay on the field. It's kind of reminiscent to a Byron Buxton situation for Jazz Chisholm. He has not played, he's only played more than 100 games once so far in his career. I realize it's only like, whatever, three or four years. But last year, Jazz went on the aisle with turf toe and a strained oblique. He had surgery in the offseason to repair that turf toe. He's projected for around 130 games over Jazz's last 100.

130 games. He has 27 homers and 28 steals. So, if he could just stay on the field, man. It could be an awesome player. And Christian Yelich, you know, last year he was the 30th overall player in Roto last season, dealt with some of that back injury popping back up late in the season last year around August, kind of derailed his final two months, Scott. But what do you think about Jazz versus Christian Yelich this season? So this is the third straight player I'm doing this for, but I am going to make a distinction between categories, leagues, and points leagues for these two players as well.

Jazz Chish has horrible plate discipline. Christian Yell is pretty good plate discipline, particularly in terms of drawing walks. And so to give their point per game averages, and again, this is per game. So we're not holding Chisholm's time loss to injury against him with this comparison. Christian Yelich was 3.42.

Jazz Chisholm 2.81, huge difference. So I don't even think health is the biggest concern for Chisholm if you're talking of Points League context. But you're pulling these ADPs from Roto League, so that's the more significant one for this discussion anyway. And I have them right next to each other in my Roto rankings. I think I'm going to lean Chish here. That is how I have them in my rankings.

And it's because Yelich, what was it, 19 home runs 28 steals last year for Yelich. Chisholm was 1922. And again, that was in 97 games for Chisholm. It was in a full season, 144 games for Yelich, so almost a full season, 50 more games. And so, you know, even if, even if you're expecting Chisholm to miss as much time as he's missed in recent years, it's still likely he's going to measure up to Yelots in terms of home runs. and stolen bases.

And of course, if he stays healthy, Chisholm finally stays healthy, he's going to well exceed Yelich in those two areas. That's not to say, you know, I think a Yelich playing 144 more, 144 games is more valuable than a Jazz Chisholm playing 97 games

because of the additional runs in RBI that are kind of come with that. But when you're talking upside versus downside, I think Yelich isn't enough of a standout in home runs and stolen bases to pass up the upside of jazz chasm for five by five categories leagues. Do you target either of those players?

No. Me neither. That's why I feel like, again, these aren't players we've talked much about like we're doing mock drafts and typically we're not drafting those players. So I wanted to talk a little bit more about them. It's just I try to play it safe

in the early-ish rounds. And these guys are going in the top five or six rounds in Roto leagues. And I just, I think that even though he played 144 games last year, I still think there is significant injury risk with Christian Yellich, too, and that back injury. So, uh, yeah, I will say it in a points league. Yelich is one of the few early round outfielders I feel comfortable with. And I'm not talking about the first round types, those nine first round types.

Of course, those are all great. But when you get into that next range of outfielders, who I would be fine with in a categories league like Michael Harris. and Randy Rose Raina, I don't know, there's a bunch of outfielders in that range, Luis Robert, who aren't really well suited for points leagues, and Yelich is. So I might fixate Yelich in that format.

It just hasn't happened in the points leagues we've done so far. All right. Next up, we have Logan Gilbert at 66.8 versus Grayson Rodriguez at 67.8. So one pick apart, Logan Gilbert has yet to take that next step. Even if he doesn't, it's probably an ERA in the mid to high threes, which, you know, he's just been solid the past two years. Grayson Rodriguez, we know that he got off to a terrible start last year, sent back down to the miners, over his final 13 starts,

2508 ERA, a 110 whip, 13% swinging strike rate. Scott, who would you rather have between Logan Gilbert and Grace and Rodriguez? Well, I've made the case myself that Logan Gilbert is being overdrafted and that he doesn't have like an ace ceiling. It's more like he's an accumulator, a compiler. Maybe you could use that word for him. He's going to throw a lot of innings with a high enough strikeout rate and a decent enough ERA, potentially a good whip,

but I'm not sure he can, I'm not sure whether he's more like a 1.8 whip or 1.08 whip like he was last year. So I don't see him as being worth his cost, but I definitely don't see Grayson-Rod. is being worth his cost, at least the one you laid out here. I have him, I have them further apart in my rankings with Logan Gilbert still being the higher one. And I don't mean, I'm not,

I don't want to knock Jason Rodriguez, but I'm not convinced yet that he has like world beater ace upside. I understand he was a huge pitching prospect. He had a great numbers down there. But, no, even when he was successful last year, It wasn't like with a huge strikeout rate or anything. So I think if Grayson Rodriguez gets to Logan Gilbert's workload this year, about 190

innings, I'm not sure the numbers look that different from Logan Gilbert's. And it's an if in Grayson Rodriguez's case. Well, in Logan Gilbert's case, we kind of expect them to do it again. Yeah, I have Logan Gilbert ranked just a little bit higher in both formats. For the reasons you mentioned, I think there's a higher floor. I trust the Mariners. It's the reason why I like to. drafting Luis Castillo. I like Brian Wu as a breakout pick later on.

So, um, again, these are two pitchers I don't usually wind up with much. If they felt to the right part of a draft, like a little bit past ADP, I'm, I'm sure it would be fine taking them. But yeah, I do slightly lean with Logan Gilbert as well. Two more pitchers got Zach Eflin at pick 79 versus Jesus Lazardo at 80.8. Both have, uh, extensive injury histories for different reasons. Eflin has dealt with injuries to both of his knees. Lazzardo has had some arm related issues throughout his career. and both broke out last year in major ways.

Zach Eflin was going much later in drafts. I think outside of the top 200 picks, Lazardo was like a top, I think, like, 120 or top 150 pick last season. I think there's higher strikeout from upside from Lazzardo, Scott, but don't want to knock Zach Eflin. The peripherals loved him last year. Projections love him this year. Which way do you lean Eflin versus Lazzardo?

I lean Lazzardo, and that goes for all scoring formats. It's a big difference. in terms of whip between these two? Because Logan Gilbert, I'm sorry, Logan Gilbert, Zach Eflin, his control was right up there with George Kirby. I mean, he was a standout, a superlative in that area,

which obviously led to an elite whip. And, you know, Jesus Lusardo's control isn't terrible, but these had some issues with it over the years. And on top of that, he's kind of hitable for a strike. out guy. 8.2 hits per 9 last year. And so that's

why he had a 1-2-2 whip. Well, Eflins was 1.02. If you look at like ERA estimators,

Eflin comes out even better than Lazzardo does. The gap grows between them in terms of their ERA contributions. Lazzardo is probably

the better strikeout pitcher, but I do think he's a bigger injury risk too. And so the total number of strikeouts might not

end up being that different. it wasn't that different. What was it? 22 different. I guess that's different. But yeah, that was with Jesus Lozardo approaching 180 innings. I'm not necessarily counting on him doing that again.

I do want to clarify because I think you started off the analysis, Scott, by saying you prefer Lozardo. But it sounded like through the analysis, you liked Eflin more. Oh my gosh. What a mess. Sort of make sure. Yeah, it was Eflin. Thanks for clarifying. Yeah, yeah, no problem.

And I called Eflin Logan Gilbert at one point. Just terrible. And I know Chris has made this point about Zach Eflin that he's kind of like a poor man's George Kirby, at least based on what he did last year, right? The ratios should be solid, probably around a strikeout per inning. I mean, Zach Eflin, I believe, finished higher than George Kirby last year. And he's being drafted 30, 40 picks later than where George Kirby is going right now. So not to disparage Kirby, but I just think maybe if Zach Eflin is just a little bit undervalued where he's going right now.

Scott, I wanted to bring this one up because it's one that has come up throughout some of the mock drafts that we've done and talking about Tristan Kossis and how we all want to get him and he's so hard to get. This one is from the NFBC over the past week. Tristan Kossis is 88.6, Christian Walker, 90.1. Have you made the switch? Have you moved Tristan Kossis ahead of Christian Walker?

I have made the switch. And a lot of good it's done me because Tristan Kossis went 68 in our last draft. So I did get one share of him. I got Tristan Kossis in my home league. His homies don't know. But I do. Tristan Kossis is going to be huge.

And I think better than Christian Walker, certainly in terms of batting average. And I think that's an easy call for me for this exercise. Because I, you know, Walker is who he is and it's valuable enough. But if Kossis could be a top five first baseman by this time next year.

You know, Christian Walker does feel like that classic being undervalued because he's not a a sexy type player or, you know, he's just someone who showed up the past two years and he's been really, really good and maybe we're just, you know, devaluing him because he's not a young prospect or he's, you know, in his mid-30s, whatever it might be. With all that being said, I have to make the switch because if I was on the clock, I was thinking more about it, I would take Tristan Kossis. If I needed a first basement around this range, I just think the upside is higher, which might not be fair

because like I said, Christian Walker has been really good the past few years. Walker's very solid, and I wish they were going further apart, because where they're going now, there's just no chance I'm taking Walker. I mean, some people have asked, why do people draft so early in the offseason when all these injuries happened in March and all this crazy stuff going on?

Well, the difference is Tristan Kossis maybe a month or two ago, he was going 20, 30, 40 picks behind Christian Walker. and now the gap is closed. Yeah, you know, if you, if you, look, part of it's just a practicality standpoint. We have so many drafts.

We can't leave them all for the last week. Right. But I do find that I have an advantage. I have a bigger advantage in earlier drafts because I don't know. I trust my forecasting ability. I think I can see those players that I'm going to start hyping. I haven't hyped yet.

So they haven't had a chance to write. the rankings and I can get them at an incredible discount. And so I enjoy that. I think it's good if you do a lot of leagues to draft throughout March, basically, to have some teams where you're able to take advantage of those values and some teams where you didn't have those surprise injuries that kind of, that may have messed up your plans a little bit. injuries aren't going to stop happening. That's something people need to keep in mind. Like, okay, yeah, you can wait until the hour before first pitch to draft,

and then you lose two players on opening. They're going to happen. And so, to a certain degree, I don't know. It feels like you're just delaying the inevitable by saying, okay, now we can draft and not have to worry about injuries. No, you're always going to have to worry about injuries. All right. Let's move on to two more pitchers on the same team, Scott.

Dylan Sees at pick 93.8 versus Joe Musgrove at 94.4. And by the time people are listening to this, Joe Musgrove might have gotten rocked by the Dodgers. We have no idea. Maybe he threw a complete game shutout. We have no idea. But a start will be in the books for Joe Musgrove. What did Joe Housgoyotani do?

I don't know. I don't know. Well, at least in game one, he went two for four and stole it. You did do that. I hope he does a lot more of that. Let's do that. Joe Musgrove, you know, got off to a bit of a rocky spring. Last year, he got shut down with the shoulder injury.

His last spring start, he looked much better and talked about how, you know, he figured some things out mechanically. So, look, if Joe Musgrove is healthy and he's Joe Musgrove, he's been really, really solid over the past couple of years. Dylan Seas, a little bit more wider range of outcomes here, Scott. The upside might be higher than Joe Musgrove, but like we saw last year, the floor is lower for Dylan Seas. Who do you prefer Seas versus Musgrove?

I prefer Musgrove because the ceiling is pretty high for Musgrove too. And you know I'm selling out pretty hard for strikeouts this year. But I feel like Musgrove is if he's healthy and he looks healthy, everything seems fine there. He's basically a lock for a 3ERA, a 110 whip, if not better. And basically however many innings he throws, which will probably be 180 or so. and okay CIS might beat him by 60 strikeouts but he could

as we saw last year he could like ruin you an ERA and whip so that the strikeouts aren't even worth it I don't think that's how CES's season is going to go I think he will have

he will bounce back to some degree but probably an ERA in the high three is probably a whip that pulls that does more harm than good and ultimately I think Musgrove is just a he's certainly a safer pitcher

and I think his most likely outcome is going to be better overall. All right, this next one, Scott. It's not really an ADP battle. It's kind of a, let me check in and see where Scott is on Christian Encarnasio and Stran. Vinnie Pasquantino versus CES.

And I just checked my rankings. I moved Cisa ahead of Musgrove. Ah! All those strikeouts, Musgrove is amazing. All those strikeouts, Cisa is Amazing. Gosh, this is terrible. Let's just re-record this podcast.

We're starting over. Here we go. Been a disaster. So is there anything else you want to add? Are you just going to see? So or Musgrove? He just looks so good this spring. I'm just kind of like argue with myself, basically. You know, that might be a decision you make based on how your builds going up to that point.

Yeah, that might be. if if your aces are like Logan Webb and George Kirby guys who you don't necessarily count on for a big strikeout total then maybe C-Sys is the better one to take but if you got Regens and Snell then maybe Musgrove would work better with them yeah that's we'll apply that band-aid

to the analysis I gave earlier and hopefully that flies with people I have Dylan Cs one spot higher than Joe Musgrove in both formats I did move Joel Musgrove up a little bit going from the White Sox to the Padres. I know you weren't as affected by the move, but I do think going to a slightly better ballpark

and just the team context is going to be much better with the Padres. I think that gives him the edge. And even the injury risk, the slight injury risk from Musgrove last year with the shoulder, Chris talks about this a lot. I don't know that Dillan's Hease has ever missed a start in his career. So he's been incredibly durable.

So I will lean slightly on Dylan C-stair. I was asking you the question about Vinnie P. Baby! Versus encanaccio Strand, and then you started crumpling your paper, Scott. I was like, wow, you must really hate Encarnacian and Stranosia and Stran? Or maybe you love them. Who would you rather have between those two? Vinny P. I do think Incarnacion Strand is going to hit a lot of home runs.

And so if that's your need at that point in the draft, especially now that there are fewer impediments to his playing time, great. I do think batting average is. generally a more difficult category to fill. And I think Vinnie Pasquantino is, look, if he's right, he's going to hit 300, I think. I think he's going to be a great source of that. And he might, you know, he might come closer.

He might come within five home runs of incarnatio's strand. That's possible. I think more likely it'll be 10 separating the two of them. But it's not like Vini Pasquantino doesn't have power. And then, of course, it's worth saying, in points league's huge gap between the two because vinyasquantino is going to have like a one-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio almost while incarnacion strand's going to be on the opposite end of the spectrum as far as that goes yeah for me it's format dependent in a points league i would take

viny pasquantino the the plate discipline the batting average uh in a categories league i moved incarnacion strand one spot higher i've been kind of aggressive in that i want to be in on him now that I know the playing time is safer and just not necessarily the team context, the ballpark context, right? It's like playing in Great American Ballpark versus Kaufman for Vinnie Pasquantino. I just think there's so much more upside for power

and potentially counting stats. I think the Reds lineup is still a little bit better than the Royals as well. So in a road over category's league, I'll take Encarnacio Tran in points. I'll go ahead and take Vinnie P. Let's talk about two more outfielders. Scott, George Springer at 101.8 versus Sayas Suzuki at 106. I think you might get a little bit more

speed from Springer at this point, but the power has taken a little bit of a step back the past couple of years. I feel like we all have Sayas Suzuki as a breakout candidate, but what about the old Wiley Vet, George Springer? Yeah, I definitely prefer. Let me make sure I definitely prefer. Check those right, Scott. I have Sayas Suzuki one spot ahead of George Springer. So yes, I prefer, as I was saying, say a Suzuki to George Springer. If we're just comparing last year's stolen base total, yes, I guess you give Springer the edge there. It was the first time Springer had 20 steals in the season.

I understand that it was also the year where everybody was setting career high and stolen bases. So maybe that's a reason to believe it'll continue for Springer. But it's not a lock, is my point. It's not a lock that he's going to, there's going to be any kind of steals. there between him and Sayas Suzuki and or that it's going to be a significant cap if there is one. Meanwhile, Sayas Suzuki hit 350 over the final two months, right?

When he, I read more about this recently because I talked about maybe he was, maybe it was just a case of him getting more comfortable in his new environment, you know, after obviously making that difficult transition and everything that goes with it. But there were also some more basic baseball-related adjustments that he made.

He was aggressive. He was more aggressive early in the count. First of all, he changed like all his pre-game routines. And he was also more aggressive on early in the count when he could count on getting strikes to hit because he was kind of just like putting himself behind in the count too often by being overly patient. And it led to numbers that I think are better supported. it led to numbers like we expected from Sayy Suzuki all along.

I'm not saying he's going to sustain 350 batting average all year, but I think he's going to be a plus for batting average. And I think the home runs will be similar to Springer and the steals might be similar to Springer. So let's go Sayy Suzuki. Yep, it's going to be Sayas Suzuki for me in both formats. It's a close-ish call. It's not like a slam dunk by any means. I have them ranked pretty close.

I just checked in Roto. I have the outfielder ranked between them. Wyatt Langford. So choose your destiny. or choose your own adventure kind of thing between Sayy Suzuki, Wyatt, and George Springer. Different points of their careers, obviously.

I think maybe different levels of upside as well. But yeah, we've talked a lot about Sayas Suzuki. Do like the upside this season, regardless of format. Good plate discipline. I think there's some power and speed there as well. Let's wrap up, Scout, with a closer discussion

and two names going right around each other. I feel like in drafts too. Whenever one goes off the board, it's kind of a reminder, hey, that closer is very similar. it's time to take him as well. Evan Phillips at 111.6.6.6. Evan Phillips, by the way,

one game in the books for the Dodgers, he already has a save. So what do you think about Phillips versus Paul Seawald? Well, I'll say this for Evan Phillips. Over the last two years, he has a 159 ERA, a 0.80 whip, and 10.4K per 9. So tremendous ratios, obviously.

I'd rather have Seawald. I'd rather have Seawald because ultimately if I'm drafting a closer, I'm doing it for saves. I need as many saves as I can get from that guy. That's the only reason I'm rostering him, really. And I have more confidence in Seawald being the Diamondbacks everyday source for saves than I do Phillips.

I think Phillips, over the course of last year, earned a lot more trust from Dave Roberts. and I'm hopeful that Roberts is more consistent going to him this year. But Dave Roberts really seemed to relish being able to play the leverage game after all those years with Kenley Jansen. And I'm just a little concerned that he's going to do that again. Not that Phillips won't lead the Dodgers and saves.

Maybe he'll get 30 saves. but I think Seawald, with the consistency, the Diamondbacks are going to turn to him in the ninth inning, a much better bet for 30 saves and might even approach 35, 40 saves. Yeah, Seawald had 34 saves last year, 10 more than Evan Phillips. So I think we would all agree Phillips's ratios are going to be better. I think the strikeouts actually are going to be close. Actually, they might favor Paul Seawald. The saves will definitely favor Paul Seawald.

and I think an underrated or under-discussed downside to Evan Phillips is, I think the Dodgers could add to their bullpen at some point this year. And it won't be because Evan Phillips is bad or anything. They might just want another elite arm in that bullpen. Or, you know, if the guardians fall out of it, if they bring in a manual class A, he is going to be the closer of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Right. So I realize this is speculation-based, but with as well,

as good as the Dodgers are, the games that they're projected to win, make a deep run into the World Series, like paying all these players just would not surprise me if they add to that bullpen at some point this year. So I think that adds a little bit of just another layer of downside for Evan Phillips. Who I do like, if Paul Seawald goes, and I'd be willing to take Evan Phillips, but I do prefer Paul Seawald just a smidge. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today.

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