Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Max Fried to the Yankees! Andres Gimenez Traded to the Blue Jays! (12/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. The Yankees are on the board. Welcome into an emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, December 10th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White, and the Yankees are on to Plan B. After losing out on Juan Soto, their first move of the offseason was to sign Max Fried on a massive eight-year, $218 million deal pending a physical, of course. and we'll get back to that in just a little bit. Scott, you know as well as anybody.

Starting point is 00:00:32 Max Fried, when healthy, he is a really, really good pitcher. Career 307 ERA, 116 whip. Fits very nicely in between Garrick Cole and Carlos Rodon atop the Yankees' rotation. You know, when he's healthy, I think he's like an SP2 for fantasy, but he's dealt with that forearm strain

Starting point is 00:00:52 each of the past two years, and that's where that physical comes into play. So we'll wait and see. But assuming he checks out, he will be signing with the New York Yankees. Yeah, in theory, this is a great fit for the Yankees because it's a left-handed pitcher. And Yankee Stadium isn't so friendly for right-handed batters. So left-handed pitchers you would think would fare better there. And besides, Max Friede, a great ground ball pitcher anyway.

Starting point is 00:01:18 He actually had the second highest ground ball rate among qualifying pitchers last year. It's why ZRA is so reliably low. 281 ERA cumulatively over the last five years, 281. And actually the highest mark during that five-year span was last year when it was only 325. So you know you're getting a low ERA from Max Reed. I don't think changing venues, changing leagues, anything like that is going to change how he should theoretically perform for ERA. But yeah, pending physical. rarely has those two words meant more than with this.

Starting point is 00:02:01 And we've seen some big free agent deals tanked in recent years because of what turned up in the physical. I actually had an article in September 20-bolt predictions for 2025, and one of them was that Max Fried would struggle to find a free agent deal to his liking because of something that turned up in the physical. Well, clearly this free agent deal is to his liking. it's the most ever guaranteed dollars for a left-handed pitcher, but the physical hasn't happened yet.

Starting point is 00:02:31 And so we'll know in a couple days, one way or another, how that's going to shake out. I imagine if anything turns up in the elbow, forearm area, or anywhere else, the Yankees are going to renege here because why would they, if there were any foreseeable conservative, about a picture's health, why would they commit to a record-setting deal? That's just when it makes sense. But if we don't hear anything, then that means Freed has a clean bill of health,

Starting point is 00:03:06 and that will be encouraging for fantasy. It's nice that his free agency comes now when the concerns over his health are at the highest, because this is going to be clarifying what happens with this physical. It does give a podcast like this, an article like a, the one I'm writing about this signing. It does give them a short shelf life because we should know within a couple days how the physical went.

Starting point is 00:03:33 Yeah, and when you wrote that bold prediction, Scott, you obviously didn't know that the Yankees would be wreaking of desperation after missing out on Juan Soto. Look, I like the pitcher, Max Free. There's no doubt about it, but this is a big contract. And this is a great offseason to be a starting pitcher because they are just getting massive deals so far.

Starting point is 00:03:52 I mean, Luis Severino got $67 million. Kikuchi got around there, right? Yeah, more than that, I think, right? I mean, Blake Snell seems like a nice value compared to this free deal. Honestly, I thought Corbyn Burns would get a contract similar to this, you know, eight years, over $200 million. He might still.

Starting point is 00:04:11 Yeah, I mean, I think it's only going to go up from here. I think if you want Corbyn Burns, you're probably going to have to spend even more money to get him on your team. One other thing that I noticed that was a little worrisome in conjunction with this year, and, you know, we said it throughout, the season.

Starting point is 00:04:26 The final numbers looked like they were good for freed. It was like a normal max-freeed season, but it kind of felt weird along the way. And his swinging strike rate also dropped all the way down to 10.2%, which was a career low. I mean, it's down from 11.7% in 2023. And 11.7% is solid. It's a little bit above league average,

Starting point is 00:04:46 but we're getting down to 10.2%. It's just another thing that kind of worried me a little bit. So yeah, it's it's all of those kind of just vague warning signs stacked up on top of each other. The back-to-back years with an IL stint for a forearm strain, the drop and swinging strike rate. I point out in the article that his walk rate after returning from the latest stent for a forearm strain, his 6 August starts 4.4 walks per nine. Yeah, that's not, that's not normal for. him. No, he's normally like two walks per nine. And so his rate for the season ended up on the high side. And to me, whenever you see those ways that a pitcher is just inexplicably kind of off with everything, that's often a harbinger for injury. And then you get the back-to-back ears with the forearm IL stint on top of it. And yeah, I think it's fair. It's a big ghoulish. I understand. People,

Starting point is 00:05:52 don't like to predict injury. But I think it would be unwise to ignore all those warning signs, at least until the physical comes along and clarifies things. Yeah. And I almost wonder with an eight-year deal, I was reading from Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees kind of stretched this out because they wanted the AAV to be lower in this max-free deal

Starting point is 00:06:13 because that's, you know, that's what counts most against your luxury tax threshold, basically. So they wanted to get that number lower the AAV, they stretch it out. I almost wonder if they expect him to miss a year throughout the course of this eight-year contract, something like that. But we shall see, again, that physical coming up,

Starting point is 00:06:33 but lots of money here going to Max Fried as he joins the New York Yankees. Scott, for your Atlanta Braves, I think the assumption all along is that he would not be back with the Braves. As of now, the top three in their rotation, Chris Sale, Ronaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, and then we have some questions after that.

Starting point is 00:06:52 I've heard them in the mix with like Nathan Ovaldi. I'm sure they'll be in the mix for other pitchers as well. Charlie Morton might come back. Yeah, I mean, as of now, how do you think things kind of work out? Like, do they get one pitcher? Are you excited about anyone else who could fill in like a Grant Holmes or Ian Anderson, something like that? I'm a moderately excited.

Starting point is 00:07:12 I had hoped to see better from Ian Anderson. I almost called him Ian Holmes, combined the two. I'd hope to see better from Ian Anderson in the minors last year when he came back from Tommy John's surgery. I think it's telling that he never got a call up toward the end of the season. He just struggled with control and his change up. Remember, he had a world-beater change-up. But didn't seem like it was quite up to standard yet. You know, maybe a little more rest, a little more reps will get Ian Anderson back there.

Starting point is 00:07:42 Only 26 years old. So could still recapture some of his former potential. and Grant Holmes look great. And a few spots starts down the stretch last year. He had an elite swinging strike rate during his time in that role. The outings tended to be on the shorter side, but he got some length than a couple of them. I think Grant Holmes deserves a more serious look.

Starting point is 00:08:07 But presumably that's for the fifth spot. I do think the Braves will bring in somebody, whether it's Valdi or Morton, or I don't think it'll be anybody too spectacular like Corbyn earns or gear crochet, but somebody to help just kind of give them some volume. And then there will be a competition for the fifth spot between guys like Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson. Who else would be in that mix? AJ Smith Shaver presumably.

Starting point is 00:08:36 Yep. I guess Bryce Elder is still around. And even that's only a temporary situation because at some point, barring a setback, Spencer Strider, we'll be back. We don't really know what's going on with him when he first had the procedure on his elbow. The talk was that he should be ready for the start of 2024

Starting point is 00:08:59 and the Braves have kind of downplayed that this off-season. But they haven't really gone into specifics. I'm hopeful that it's just a situation where they're like, okay, well, we know we're going to have to limit his innings to some degree. We'd rather limit them on the front end.

Starting point is 00:09:16 sort of like the pirates did with Paul Skeens. Yeah, Paul Skeens, thank you. This year they took care of the mini, they front-loaded the innings management. And I hope that's what the delay for Spencer Strider is about, because obviously we want him at full health. He's a really good pitcher, really good fantasy option. Last question here on Max Fried,

Starting point is 00:09:41 the early ADP from the NFBC is 101.3. he's the SP 29 off the board going just after Hunter Brown and Spencer Schwellenbach. Does it sound like a fair spot for Max Fried? Do you think he should be higher than that? Where was he? SP 29 right behind Hunter Brown and his former teammate, Spencer Schwellenbach. I thought I was playing it safe with Max Fried, but that's, that is too low. That is too low for Max Fried.

Starting point is 00:10:12 I have him 23rd. I have him behind Aeronola, Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, some other number two, long-time number two starters in fantasy. I put Freed below them because I think he's a greater injury risk. Again, if this physical comes back clean, that may be incentive for me to move freed up ahead of those guys. Though worth noting, always seems to have a limited,

Starting point is 00:10:39 always seems to have like worth of glow limitations, whether it's because there's an IL stint in there or not. Only once has he gotten to 180 innings. So that puts a pretty firm cap on Max Fried's ceiling. But certainly I'd take him over Schwelembach. And I imagine presuming this deal goes through that his ADP will rise. NFBC drafters tend to be really hesitant with free agents in general. and so that was probably dragging down Freed's value on that particular site.

Starting point is 00:11:15 All right, let's take a quick break because there's something else to talk about. Andres Jimenez was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. We'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in. Andres Jimenez was traded over to the Toronto Blue Jays, and we're still waiting for more details to come out about this trade. But what we know as of now is that Jimenez and reliever Nick Sandlin are headed to the Blue Jays in a deal that includes Spencer Horwere.

Starting point is 00:11:39 So I don't think that's the complete package, but we should learn more over the next coming hours regarding that trade. And it's funny, Scott, because just last night, we did the prospect pod. We were talking about infield prospects, and we brought up Travis Bazana, and I asked you guys,

Starting point is 00:11:55 well, where's Andres Jimenez going to play when they call up Travis Bazana? The answer was Toronto, apparently. Jimenez, we know, is a gold glove second baseman. His offense took a step back this past season, but still provides a good amount of speed. he hit 252, nine-hole runs, 30 steals a 638 OPS. Scott, your thoughts on Andres Jimenez over to the Blue Jays.

Starting point is 00:12:18 His value is probably unchanged. Toronto, Rogers Center hasn't played well to right field. It just doesn't seem like the ball's carrying as well there as it used to. But you look at the park factors, power for left-handed hitters. It's pretty neutral. And not that Andres Jimenez is going to be a big source of power anyway. So I think his value basically remains the same. I'm kind of excited for Spencer Horowitz here, though,

Starting point is 00:12:45 because he comes out of a pretty crowded situation there at second base for the Blue Jays, where there was also Will Wagner and Davis Schneider and the power hitting prospect coming up through the Blue Jays system who can play second base or Elvis Martinez. Thankfully, I have my rankings open here. Doesn't have to contend with those guys anymore. It does have to contend with Travis. Bazaana, but I don't think that'll come into play realistically this year, maybe

Starting point is 00:13:13 very late in the year. We could get a glimpse of Bazaana. I think Spencer Horwitz will have a lot more freedom in Cleveland, and it's a really interesting profile, good, low strikeout rate,

Starting point is 00:13:30 gets on base a lot, has the potential, I think, for between 15 and 20 homers if he plays regularly enough. A solid points league profile, especially, I would say Spencer Horowitz has. But hopefully the abats will be regular enough that he can make an impact in categories leagues too. And I think a sneaky part of this move for Spencer Horowitz is this past season, progressive field played much better for left-handed power.

Starting point is 00:14:00 They made some kind of alterations in the outfield. And didn't really change the dimensions. But I think they changed the seating and created a wind tunnel out. to right field, and it helped a lot with left-handed power. So that could also help with the stock up here on Spencer Horowitz. I want to say his hottest stretch of the season came in a series in Cleveland. I'm pulling up the game log to see if that's true. I'm not sure if that's true.

Starting point is 00:14:27 Actually, he had one in Atlanta three home rents in a two-game span. But yeah, I said 15 to 20-homer power for Spencer Horowitz. It may be more like 20 to 25. I may have been selling him short there. Yeah. With a good batting average, hopefully. Yeah. So good news there for Spencer Horowitz.

Starting point is 00:14:44 And we just assume he's going to play second base, right, Scott? Because as of now, they have Josh Naler and Kyle Manzardo at first base in D.H. There are some rumors that they could move on from Josh Naler. But the way they're constructed, Horowitz will play second base for them, we assume, right? Yeah, I don't know why they bother to acquire him. He is naturally a first baseman, which is why you bring that up, stretched defensively at second base. but I don't know why they'd bother to acquire him if they didn't trust him to play second base for them.

Starting point is 00:15:11 Yep. Just one more quick question on Andrus Jimenez. I know you said, value is likely unchanged. I did just want to point out the Guardians were fifth and stolen bases this past season. The Blue Jays were 27th. The Blue Jays also just don't really have the personnel to run all that much. So maybe that was part of it. But maybe just not as aggressive, you know, going over to the Blue Jays.

Starting point is 00:15:33 So if, you know, you were expecting 30 seats, Maybe it's like 25. I know he's really fast, so that shouldn't matter, but, you know, obviously team philosophies and things can factor into how many steals a player winds up with.

Starting point is 00:15:46 The ADP for Andres Jimenez got as 183 as the 13th second basement off the board. He's going right after Luis Renhifo, Bryson, Stott, Nico Horner. Does that make sense? I have him ahead of Bryson Stott, but otherwise pretty much dead on there. I have Nico Horner higher,

Starting point is 00:16:03 but I guess there is a, a health issue maybe bringing down his value a bit. But yeah, it sounds like I'm basically right on board with where Andrus Jimenez is going. Yeah. And I think he's a fine middle infielder. For Roto leagues, head to head points, I don't think he's really going to factor in much.

Starting point is 00:16:20 He doesn't have very good plate discipline. He doesn't hit a lot of home runs or anything like that. But as a middle infielder in Roto, 10 to 12 home runs, 25 is steals. Batting average, it doesn't kill you. I think that's a fair expectation for Andres Jimenez, who is now with the Toronto Blue Jays. All right.

Starting point is 00:16:38 Should we mention one last thing here? What do you got? One aspect of the freed signing that we didn't get into is what happens to the Yankees rotation because as things currently stand, they have seven guys for five spots. And the three that would be on the bubble, presumably are Nestor Cortez and Luis Heel

Starting point is 00:16:59 and Clark Schmidt. Presumably Clark Schmidt being a pretty easy, bump there as things currently stand but you were speculating frank that uh the yankees might be looking to move stroman and or cortez and of course no team makes it through a whole season with five starters so even if clark smit doesn't end up having a job to begin the year he will factor at some point but that'll be worth monitoring closely the rest of this offseason if they're able to open up a job for him because he was pretty impressive last year and 16 starts clark schmidt had a 285 year 1-18 whip 9.8K per 9.

Starting point is 00:17:38 Yeah, I would frankly be shocked if Clark Schmidt is not in their rotation. They like him a lot. You mentioned he did some interesting things this past season. He finally put it together and he looked really good, albeit in a smaller sample size. But yeah, I think the team likes him a lot and will be in the rotation, whether that's moving Stroman and Nesser Cortez. Maybe Nessor-Cortez is in the bullpen.

Starting point is 00:17:59 But yeah, my guess is they're not done making moves yet, and Clark Schmidt will still be in this rotation. but yeah, got to wait and see how everything else shakes out here with the Yankees rotation. We are gonna wrap there for Scott, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating

Starting point is 00:18:17 on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again on Thursday or maybe sooner because there's just so much going up. We'll see you sometime. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Max Fried to the Yankees! Andres Gimenez Traded to the Blue Jays! (12/9 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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