Fantasy Baseball Today - McClanahan Needs Surgery, Vlad Jr. Struggles & Drop Cristian Javier? (8/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

Shane McClanahan needs Tommy John surgery (3:05). Should we avoid Rays pitchers moving forward? ... Is it time to drop Cristian Javier (10:00)? ... Corey Seager is on another level this year (16:20). ...... Add Logan Allen, Kyle Hendricks or Graham Ashcraft (19:43)? ... We got duped by Jack Flaherty again (30:00). ... Why is Marcell Ozuna available in leagues (32:13)? ... How should we evaluate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving forward (40:05)? ... News (45:51): Mike Trout is dealing with soreness. ... Let's give some love to these unsung hitters this season (56:23). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (59:00). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in tough fantasy baseball today on Wednesday, August 16th. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Today on the show, what has happened to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this season. We shall discuss unsung hitters who have carried us, WaverWire moves, the dropometer, team name Wednesday, and much more.
Starting point is 00:00:47 It's going to be a very loaded show. Before we get started, help us out by liking this video and subscribing on YouTube if you haven't already. And if you're listening on the audio side, download, follow, and leave a five-star rating
Starting point is 00:00:58 on Apple or Spotify. And Scott, I hate to start the show with bad news, but it feels like something we should lead with. the unfortunate update that Shane McClanahan will have Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out likely all of next season as well. It's a huge loss for fantasy, a huge loss for the Tampa Bay raise.
Starting point is 00:01:21 We knew he was unlikely to pitch again this year, but it just, it sucks. It sucks to get this kind of confirmation for, you know, for most of the year, someone that was ranked inside of our top five, top three starting pitchers. He had a 329 ERA, a 1.18 whip, and I don't know that there's much to add on Shane McClainahan, Scott, but someone did. There goes the money. That's not very nice, is it? Too soon, God, too. That's not nice. We've got to wait a couple of weeks before we can make any kind of, I guess, jokes about it.
Starting point is 00:01:53 But somebody on Twitter asked me an interesting question just regarding the raise. Do all of their injuries to pitchers in recent years deter you? you from drafting raised pitchers in the future. Obviously, they still have a lot of very useful names. Tyler Glass now moving forward. They still have Zach Eflin. Obviously, I think he'll be someone we're interested in drafting next year, maybe even Aaron Savali. Your thoughts, Shane McClanahan and race pitchers moving forward. Hmm. Yeah, it's an interesting question. Because the rays are unique in the way they handle their pitchers. They do seem to baby them more than a lot of organizations.
Starting point is 00:02:37 They give them longer in the minors usually before promoting them and don't let them accumulate as many innings in the minors. And then when they get to the majors, oftentimes they have them follow openers. They were the organization that kind of pioneered that. and they've been very careful with them over the years and yet this has happened. Does that mean it's wrong for them to be careful?
Starting point is 00:03:05 I think it's... I think that's too big of an assumption. I mean, part of it might just be the kind of pitchers that they're attracted to. Shane McClanahan, arguably the hardest throwing left-handed starting pitcher ever. So you would imagine, especially from a guy with a smallish frame.
Starting point is 00:03:26 You imagine that would come with some injury risk and he got injured, obviously. I don't know. I mean, obviously we saw Jeffrey Springs get injured earlier. We saw Drew Raspus and Tyler Glassnow's had a share of injuries. Again, another very hard thrower in Glassnow's case. Jeffrey Springs, we saw a big increase in velocity and maybe that contributed to it.
Starting point is 00:03:51 I tend to avoid raised pitchers. just because I don't like all the all the ways I laid out that are atypical unorthodox the way they use them. It just is ill-suited for the fantasy game. But because of injury risk,
Starting point is 00:04:13 yeah, I don't know. I don't know that I'm ready to do that. An interesting name for next year will be Shane Boz who's going to be returning from Tommy John surgery. he had it in around this time last year. I think it was August or September, so obviously he missed all this season. He's going to be fresh, ready to go at the start of next year, but obviously we don't have much to work with for this year
Starting point is 00:04:35 and how much are they going to want to push him? Are they going to let him go 120 innings next year? He's obviously still a prize possession in their system and he's 24 years old. So I think he's going to be probably a really interesting one because I could see a lot of people just talking themselves into him for good reason. I mean, the guy looks like he has amazing stuff,
Starting point is 00:04:54 but I think Shane Bosz will kind of be an interesting test for that next year. And though he'll presumably be ready to go at the start of the season, he'll have had enough time to recover from Tommy John surgery because they're going to want to
Starting point is 00:05:07 be careful with his workload even beyond the usual race pitcher, might they just hold him out longer? Because that'll change his draft stock pretty dramatically, right? If they don't even get him built up until May or whatever, mid-May. I don't know exactly what their plans are for Shane Bos.
Starting point is 00:05:28 But yeah, I agree that'll be a different, regardless of how the race choose to play it. That'll be a different player to evaluate for 2024. Yeah, I'm trying to figure out his career high innings, Shane Boggs. Not very high. No, I mean, 2021, minors and majors combined, you're looking at 92 innings? That's his career high at any level.
Starting point is 00:05:51 So, man, he's going to be a really interesting one to talk about for next year. I'm sure, again, he'll probably be in that at sleeper discussion. That's Shane Baz. But again, this all kind of goes back to the Tampa Bay Rays and how they've handled pitchers and all these massive injuries to their pitching staff, Rasmussen this year, Jeffrey Springs. I mean, there's probably something there with, at least with Rasmussen and Springs. Those guys were former relievers that were turned starters.
Starting point is 00:06:16 So maybe they were pushed too fast too quickly over the years. kind of the workload just kind of added up too much. And, you know, Shane McClanahan, as you pointed out, he just throw really, really hard for a left-handed pitcher. So it's interesting because, you know, it's not just like one type of pitcher, not just one mold. It's, they kind of come from, I don't know, different avenues, I guess you could say.
Starting point is 00:06:37 Yeah. I mean, it may just be unfair to blame the race because a lot of pitchers get injured. And even though it seems like a particularly high percentage of their pitchers have gotten injured, It's still, in terms of just raw number, it's still a small number. You know, like, is it really a large enough sample, I guess, to draw any conclusions from it that this organization has an issue with keeping arms healthy?
Starting point is 00:07:07 And I, yeah, that's part of the reason I'm hesitant there. Again, I'm inclined to avoid raised pitchers anyway, but, you know, if it's a mid-round target with a lot of upside on an inning per inning basis, I don't think it's worth shying away from them just because of the TV pitches for. It sounds like something that somebody smarter than me should do research on this offseason. And then I will read that research.
Starting point is 00:07:33 Hopefully there is a conclusion to be drawn about the Tampa Bay raise pitchers. But again, the unfortunate news, Shane McClanahan will have Tommy John. I think it's scheduled for next Monday, likely to miss all of next season as well. Let's get into the rest of Tuesday's action. I don't believe.
Starting point is 00:07:52 All right, Scott, you were up. the player of the night. Good or bad. Not so good in this case. It's Christian Javier who, despite a favorable matchup at the Marlins, had a bad outcome.
Starting point is 00:08:07 Four and runs in four and two-thirds innings, six hits allowed, one walk, just two strikeouts. And he's been bad for a while now. Do you happen to have the numbers over his last few starts? I only have the season-long numbers
Starting point is 00:08:22 overall, but, Okay, maybe I can pull up my column. I wrote just today, I wrote it last night actually, but published today Christian Javier in the... Okay, so he has a fourth... He entered this start with a 436 ERA, and it's mostly gone bad for him after his first 10 starts. It's been an interesting season that Christian Javier has had
Starting point is 00:08:47 because through his first 10 starts, he looked exactly like the pitcher we drafted him to be. He had a 307 ERA, a 0.95 whip, 9.8K per 9, a 14% swinging strike rate that was almost exactly the same as the mark he had last year. And it's really the swinging strikes that fell off for him. It took a couple starts for it to be reflected in his ERA. But basically, he had a seven-start stretch there with just one start with double-digit swinging strikes. and that's where the ERA blew up. That's where it seemed like,
Starting point is 00:09:24 oh, something's going wrong for this guy. I'd seen evidence prior to this specific start at the Marlins that maybe Javier was beginning to turn it around. He did only have nine swinging strikes in this one, but he entered the start with a five-start streak of double-digit swinging strikes. So six of seven less than double-digit, single-digit swimming strikes, and then five straight with double-digit swinging strikes, one in which he had 21 swinging strikes.
Starting point is 00:09:53 So an especially high swinging strikes start there. And also during that five-star stretch with the double-digit swinging strikes, a 174 batting average against, which is more Javier-like. When he's at his best, he's missing a lot of bats, he's limiting hits as well as any pitcher in baseball. The reason why we haven't noticed an improvement in fantasy is because his walk rate was just totally blown up. 16 walks in 26 and a third innings during that stretch. So in the ways that were most concerning, he has shown improvement.
Starting point is 00:10:32 But then he had this other control issue crop up that really prevented him from bouncing back the way we'd like in fantasy. Now, the start at the Marlins, I mean, it kind of blows up both narratives. He only walked one. He didn't miss many bats. He struck out only two and four and two-thirds innings. So, you know, he kind of veered from both the encouraging and discouraging signs from the previous five starts. But I guess my takeaway in breaking down his season is that, like, the talent is still there. And he's really searching right now to find a way to access it again,
Starting point is 00:11:20 to find a way to deliver the numbers we're used to seeing from Christian Javier. I think it ultimately ends up in a good place. This becomes just a blip over the course of a mostly successful career. And will it come around this season? Will he get back on track in time for us to trust him again in our lineups? And I can't say that for sure. I have no idea when it's going to happen. I know some people were asking me today,
Starting point is 00:11:46 oh, do I drop him after this start? He hasn't been usable in a long time. Fair enough. I don't know how shallow your league is. I know that if I saw him out there in any of my leagues, regardless of the depth, I'd probably pick him up, you know, just because knowing what the upside is and knowing that he has seen some improvement with the swinging strikes here recently. Yeah, you mentioned that he is searching right now,
Starting point is 00:12:10 and he completely changed his pitch mix on Tuesday. He's normally just fastball slider, right? Two-pitch pitcher. He threw his curveball 19% in the start. his change up 11%. That's really not something we ever see from Christian Javier. So you're right. He has been searching.
Starting point is 00:12:26 His fastball was brutal in this one. It had a 20% zone rate, so just could not throw that pitch for strikes. And, you know, if you look at his career, 2022, it kind of looks like the clear outlier. I know it hasn't been the longest career, but 2021, the home run rate was up. His K-minus walk rate was 18%.
Starting point is 00:12:47 So far this year, the home runs, number nine, basically the same as they were in 2021. His K minus walk rate, it's very low this year, 14%. But, you know, it's kind of closer to that 2021 number than 2020. So just wonder if maybe 2022 will turn out to be an outlier season for Christian Javier. Remains to be seen, he's 96% rostered. I guess you already answered this question, Scott, but I had him as part of a dropometer segment later on.
Starting point is 00:13:14 Where would you rank him there? One to 10, 10 being he's droppable in all leagues. one, you don't want to drop him anywhere. I put him at about a three, I guess. Like I said, I couldn't imagine dropping him in any of the leagues I am in, but I think my shallowest league is 250 players rostered, and I'm sure there are some people out there
Starting point is 00:13:34 who play in shallower leagues than that. I think the other problem, too, is, while there have been some starting pitchers that have popped up recently that are somewhat interesting off the waiver wire, there's not that slam dunk ad. You know, maybe, let's just say Gavin Williams was still out there, Scott. He's up to 81% roster now.
Starting point is 00:13:53 Would you drop Christian Javier for Gavin Williams, the way that he's pitched? I mean, rest of season, I imagine I'm going to move in my rest of season rankings. I imagine I'm going to move Williams ahead of Javier. Yeah. So if it's a one-man roster, Javier Williams, who do you take? I take Williams. But I'm going to guess I could find somebody on your roster that I'd rather drop than Javier. for Williams, if that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:14:19 All right, let's move over to my player of the night. And there's not much actionable here. It's just to point out how ridiculously good he has been. And Scott, we were all over Corey Seeger coming into the season. I know for years you have been a big Corey Seeger fan, but just, I mean, it feels like everybody in the fantasy industry kind of realized, okay, with the shift restrictions, the batting average to go back up, the expected numbers were awesome last year for Corey Seeger.
Starting point is 00:14:44 But man, I don't know that anyone saw that. this coming for Corey Seeger because through 77 games, I should mention what he did on Tuesday, three for five with a double dong, five RBI. Corey Seeger batting 350, 22 home runs, 73 RBI, a 1076 OPS. 73 RBI in 77 games. That is just, that is insane what Corey Seeger has done this year.
Starting point is 00:15:08 He entered Tuesday averaging 4.3 fantasy points per game that was tied for third among all hitters with Muki Betts and Shohayotani, trailing only Ronald de Cunia and Freddie Freeman. The expected numbers are ridiculous this year. The power numbers too, Scott. I mean, a 19% barrel rate, that's among the league leaders. I mean, that's stuff that you see from Aaron Judge and Yoron Alvarez,
Starting point is 00:15:32 guys like that. I mean, that is the company that Corey Seeger has been a part of this year when he's been healthy. His 150 game pace, 42 home runs, 142 RBI. I know during the All-Star break, we did our rest of season, redraft. You had Corey Seeger in your first round, and you look like a genius guy. So there you go. I am a genius, Frank. Now, I've been saying for a long time that I thought Corey Seeger had the potential to be Freddie Freeman at shortstop, basically. And I mean,
Starting point is 00:16:03 you could argue he's actually, he's been a little, we've never seen Freddie Freeman hit 350 before. Of course, he's probably the most consistent 300 hitter in the league. So I stand by that comparison. It's true that Seeker did miss a stretch earlier this year. And maybe if we saw him play a full 162 game season, that batting average would normalize a little bit, it's hard to sustain a 350 batting average for that long. But yeah, he's been awesome. And I imagine he'll be a first-round target for me next year,
Starting point is 00:16:38 especially if we hope the Rangers lineup is going to be as good as it was this year. and I don't see any reason why we want to think that. I think the one drawback for Corey Seeger is you almost have to factor in. He's going to miss time at some point throughout the season. I know like a hamstring strain, I guess you can't really blame him, but he has been nicked up for almost every year out of his career. Oddly enough, the only year he wasn't was last year in 2022.
Starting point is 00:17:07 He played 151 games and frankly had one of his worst seasons, which was odd. But yeah, I think when you draft Corey Seeger, Kind of like the way you do with Mike Trout. You just have to expect he's going to probably miss 20 to 30 games at some point. But man, on a per game basis, Corey Seeger has been among the league's best.
Starting point is 00:17:25 I was updating the rankings on Tuesday and I actually moved Seeger ahead of Fernando Tatis in head-to-head-to-head-points leagues, not in roto or categories, but in head-to-head points, I have done it, Scott. Corey Seeger ahead of Fernando Tatees. It's a bold move con and we'll see if it pays off. Indeed.
Starting point is 00:17:42 Let's slide over to some waiver-wire pitchers. here and I don't know, find out maybe would you drop Christian Javier for any of these names? I think probably not, but let's see. Logan Allen turned in a strong start at the Reds, an offense that has been struggling mightily as of late. Logan Allen, six shutout innings, four hits, three walks, seven strikeouts with 15 swinging strikes in this one.
Starting point is 00:18:04 He did change his pitch mix, much more diverse. He threw five different pitches between 14% and 32% usage, and it worked very well here. Logan Allen. Graham Ashcraft on the other side, another quality start. And over his last nine starts, he now has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.09 whip. Kyle Hendricks struggled early on, settled down, turns in a quality start as well against the White Sox, six innings, three runs, four strikeouts here. Scott, are we dropping Christian Javier for any of Logan Allen, Graham Ashcraft, Kyle Hendricks? Uh, no. It wouldn't be me who did that. No. Okay. Do you have any
Starting point is 00:18:42 interest in those names regardless. We got to talk about Ashcraft again, don't we? So I don't know how he's doing it, but he is doing it, Sky. I don't know. And I've mostly disparaged him during this excellent 9-start run he's been on with the 217 ERA. There was one glimmer of hope I felt like last time out that started against the Marlins where he didn't just
Starting point is 00:19:11 he runs off the board but he actually looked more like the batmisser that got me so excited in spring training he struck out seven he had 18 swinging strikes in that start against the Marlins last time out I pointed out he threw a sinker more 21% of the time as opposed to the usual 9% of the time and maybe that helped the cutter to play up
Starting point is 00:19:33 because he got a lot more whiffs on the cutter specifically Well, Tinker usage was back down to 6% in this start against the Guardian. So if that was responsible for helping the cutter play up and getting more whiffs, he didn't see fit to carry it on. So I don't know. I am back to being highly skeptical because that's the only reason I could find for maybe Ashcraft for maybe projecting improvement for Ashcraft.
Starting point is 00:20:11 Okay. And with Logan Allen, it looks like he's scheduled to face the Blue Jays next week. Not the toughest matchup, but I'm not ready to say just pick up and add Logan Allen, start him everywhere. But I thought this was pretty encouraging, you know, changing up the pitch mix and obviously getting
Starting point is 00:20:27 really good results here. So something to watch moving forward for him. Yeah. I mean, he has to do something. it was a very different pitch mix and he did get good results so we'll see a good minor league track record obviously it wouldn't surprise me if Logan Allen
Starting point is 00:20:44 turned into more than what he's shown in his rookie season but I want to see him do it again I guess before I really changed my tune with him two names in slightly deeper leagues Zach Lattel has pitched well for the Tampa Bay raise he was at the Giants five and two thirds innings two runs
Starting point is 00:21:04 five strikeouts to zero walks. And Dakota Hudson turned in a quality start against the Oakland A's six and two-thirds innings. Two runs allowed for him. And his velocity was actually down across the board. And I think we know who Dakota Hudson is. He's kind of pitched to contact. Maybe you stream them in the right matchups.
Starting point is 00:21:22 But anything here, slightly deeper league. Scott, Zeklitell and Dakota Hudson. Well, I mean, both have shown that they're capable of delivering quality starts from time to time and not every pitcher is. So if we are talking a deep league context and you don't mind the occasional blow up in pursuit of a quality start,
Starting point is 00:21:44 they've at least shown they're usable. But I don't think either has a lot of upside. I wouldn't consider either to be even part of the glob. And for standard mixed leagues, that means they're out for me. Two names that I want to ask you about whether or not we should hold on to these. If you picked them up for the two-start week,
Starting point is 00:22:04 are we okay to drop, or should we continue to hold? A tale is old as time, Scott. We finally trust Nick Povetta in a two-start week, and what does he do? He lets us down at the Nationals, four-and-a-third innings, four runs allowed, three walks, did have seven strikeouts in that one. His velocity was actually up across the board in this start, and we know Povetta has been pitching really well lately. Emerson Hancock at the Royals, a lackluster outing, five innings,
Starting point is 00:22:32 nine hits allowed, five runs. It does come with some prospect pedigree. He's had one solid start, one not so good here. What are we doing with Hancock and Pavetta? Hold, or no thanks? Well, I wasn't super high on Hancock to begin with, and I don't think he has significant upside. I think he could be somebody who misses barrels well,
Starting point is 00:22:56 gets ground balls, becomes a workhorse type for the Mariners. to pair with some of their high-end guys like Luis Castillo and George Kirby. I know we've been kind of up and... I know we've been kind of on and off with Logan Gilbert, but I think Gilbert, in the long run, is going to be a more attractive pitcher for fantasy than Hancock, too. But then the fact that Hancock couldn't come through against a royals lineup.
Starting point is 00:23:33 I mean, maybe his upside is that he becomes that mid-rotation workhorse type, but I don't know that he's there yet, and I don't know that he's going to stick around long because Brian Wu isn't expected to be on the aisle much longer with his issue. So, I mean, this could be Hancock's last start for a while, particularly since it didn't go so well. I also noticed his fastball was down one month. mile per hour on average from his previous start.
Starting point is 00:24:02 It was only 91.9. So that's another reason to be skeptical that he's really going to make much of a fantasy impact right now. So not so high on Hancock. Who is the other one we're talking about? Nick Pavetta. Nick Pavetta. Okay. So he did at least get almost halfway to the 15 strikeouts I was promising for him this week.
Starting point is 00:24:25 So if he does get that second turn against the Yankees, I believe it is. Still a good chance that you wind up with 15 strikeouts from this week. But two of his last three outings, not so great. And suddenly that stretch he's been on, you know, the strikeout rate is still great. But now in his last 10 appearances, the ERA is up to 340. So very quickly the stat line has turned from, that's amazing, to, I don't know. I'd be more likely to hold on to Povetta than Hancock, but I don't know that either is must roster. Would you drop either or both for the five names we mentioned,
Starting point is 00:25:02 Logan Allen, Ashcraft, Hendrix, Lattel, and Dakota Hudson? That's interesting. I guess I like Allen more than Hancock. I guess I like Hendricks more than Hancock. I mean, look, if Hancock gets into the miners tomorrow, then I'd drop them for any of these guys. Right. But no, I would prefer Povetta to all four of them.
Starting point is 00:25:26 All right. Let's take our first break. When we return, I've got one other pitcher on the dropometer. We'll talk about him right after this. Welcome back, and a quick reminder to follow us on Twitter. You can follow the Fantasy Baseball Today account at FBTPod, where we tweet out links to the podcast, the audio form, the YouTube, the live streams.
Starting point is 00:25:49 We also tweet out some of our short form videos and short form content. So again, follow at FBTPod. You can follow Scott at CBS Scott White. Follow me on Twitter at Roto underscore Frank. Let's fire up the dropometer, Scott, for Jack Flarity. Looks like we got duped again by good old Jackie Boy, 87% rostered. I mean, I feel like he's been on this list all seats. Like whenever we've done a dropometer segment, it's been, oh, there was a really good start,
Starting point is 00:26:18 three starts ago. And now there's been like two more bad starts from Jack Flaredes. He was at the Padres. He allowed seven runs over three innings. More walks than strikeouts in this one. There's just no consistency. He had a great first start with the Orioles. His second one was a mixed bag.
Starting point is 00:26:36 He had some strikeouts, but he was inefficient. And then obviously he gets rocked in this start, Scott. I'm just ready to be done with it. I mean, you want to talk about a random number generator? That is Jack Flaherty. I mean, he's worse than that because, you know, the random number generator should come out to, like league average numbers, right?
Starting point is 00:26:57 And he's been worse than that. No, I think I'm with you. At this point, we should be able to say definitively, they are who we thought they were about Jack Flaherty and stopped letting him off the hook whenever he has a respectable outing. The one glimmer of hope I saw with him, for Graham Ashcroft I saw a glimmer of hope for him last outing. The one glimmer of hope with Flaherty was that first start with the Orioles,
Starting point is 00:27:24 remember he suddenly started throwing this cutter a ton I think he threw it 28% of the time in that start and he's hardly thrown it since then it's gone back to it's gone back into hiding and two starts since he managed to do well enough in the second turn with the Orioles but then obviously a disaster here in the third and you know unless there's unless there's significant changes to what he was doing with the Cardinals then I don't imagine
Starting point is 00:27:54 I don't imagine we're going to like what Flaherty gives us in fantasy so I'm done with him Would you say that Jack Flaherty is a 10 on the dropometer? Yes. A 10! We got a 10. 10.
Starting point is 00:28:08 A perfect 10 for Jack Flaherty. Let's talk WaverWire hitters. Marcel O'Suna with a strong game. He's also a name. It feels like we've talked about him off and on this year. He kind of feels like someone. You just leave him in your lineup.
Starting point is 00:28:22 He's got some cold spells, but then he gets hot again. And that's what he did in this game. Two for two with two walks and his 24th home run. He is on pace for 32 homers this year. Marcel OZuna is 66% rostered, obviously hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball with the Atlanta Braves. It's got the four most added outfielders on CBS right now. Carrie Carpenter, Nolan Jones, Joey Meneses, James Outman.
Starting point is 00:28:47 Would you take Marcel Ozuna over all four of those? Sorry, I didn't catch all the names. Kerry Carpenter, Nolan Jones, Joey Meneses, and James Outmitted. Yeah, I don't, yeah, I have OZuna an entirely, entirely different category from all those guys. I'm kind of surprised the should you roster OZuna question even comes up at this point, because, I mean, what are his number since the start of May? They've got to be incredible. I know he's had some ups and downs during that stretch.
Starting point is 00:29:24 I mean, every player has ups and downs during the season, but it's just the fact he went into May batting 085 has his season line still sagging to the point that maybe in the eyes of some people, he seems fringy. But, okay, so in 84 games since the start of May, coming into today's game, which was awesome, Ozuna had hit 270 with 21 homers and 854 OPS. So basically in half the season's worth of games 270, 21 homers, 854 OPS,
Starting point is 00:29:57 555 RBI, 49 runs scored. And you just double all those numbers practically. You know, you've got a 40 homer, 100 RBI, 100 run pay. Yeah, I mean, it shouldn't be a question at this point. Marcel Ozuna, even in three hours.
Starting point is 00:30:14 outfielder leagues. Yeah. I mean, I'm saying this. I know in one of my shallower leagues of three outfielder points league, I dropped them a couple weeks ago for Chas McCormick just because, you know, I was playing the hot hand.
Starting point is 00:30:27 And sometimes in shallow leagues like that, you get kind of, you get kind of antsy because there are so few ways, so few opportunities to improve your lineup. You kind of try to force the issue sometimes. But I regret it now because somebody picked up Ozuna and Jas McCormick has predictably cooled off. and I'd rather have Ozone at this point.
Starting point is 00:30:46 I wish I'd held on to him. I think everybody, everybody who's looking for more outfield production should have them at this point. It's so interesting too, because you read off those numbers since the start of May, and that sounds a lot like Jorge Solair, right?
Starting point is 00:31:01 Who's just been a mainstay in our lineups, week in and week out, month in, month out for the entirety of the season. And Ozuna's batting average since the beginning of May has actually been better than Jorge Soler. But in terms of power, they've had very similar production
Starting point is 00:31:13 from that point, forward. So if he's out there in your league again, it would have to be a pretty shallow format, but 66% rostered. I typically look at, you know, 70, 75%. That's, yeah, I mean, that's, that's a third of all CBS leagues. He's out there. Marcello Zuna is out there. Let's talk about deeper leagues. I got four names here on the list. Leover Puguerro of the Pirates has hit pretty well for them since being called up. He went two for four with his fifth home run, 22 games with the team. He's betting 269. with five homers, two steals, and an 832 OPS. Matt Walner went one for four with a grand slam
Starting point is 00:31:50 and a grand slam it was. 11 exit velocity, 450 feet. It was a bomb. And if you look at the stack cast numbers for Matt Walner, the dude is a legit power hitter. It's just where's the batting average going to settle for him. Lawrence Butler, the prospect with the Oakland A's,
Starting point is 00:32:09 went one for four with his first career home run, and it was a majestic shot. 11-11 exit velocity 437 feet. And Michael Massey, a name we spoke about recently, he continues to hit well. Three for five with two RBI, his last 23 games, he's betting 293, with six homers, two steals,
Starting point is 00:32:26 just an 11% strikeout rate during that time. And he's either batted third or fourth in the Royals lineup in 10 straight games. So Massey's kind of doing it right now. It's got deeper leagues. Massey, Lawrence Butler, Matt Walner, Leo Ver Puguerreau. Any interest in that group?
Starting point is 00:32:41 I think Walner's more than a deep league guy, honestly. Like, the power is legit. I love watching him when he does connect on a home run because his follow-through, it kind of... How would I describe it? His bat kind of forcefully hits the ground on his follow-through, and you just, like, know he got it, you know? He, like, follows through all the way to the ground, I guess, is how I'd put it.
Starting point is 00:33:09 And, yeah, it's legit. He hits the ball very hard. Strikeouts are an issue, but the easiest way to overcome and strikeout issue is to hit the ball that hard. I'm not saying he's going to be a batting average standout or anything, but he's playing every day, even though he's a left-handed hitter and he's contributing good power numbers. So I would say in all five outfielder leagues at this point, Walner needs to be rostered. So he's far and away, my favorite of this group. My second favorite, just because...
Starting point is 00:33:41 Just because of the mystery box effect, we haven't seen him fail that hard is Lawrence Butler, recent call-up for the A's. And I'm kind of surprised he hasn't gotten more attention in fantasy because usually power speed guys, you know, across the fantasy baseball industry as a whole, there's a bias toward categories leagues, toward Broto leagues. And so power speed guys tend to get a lot of attention. And that's what Lawrence Butler is. like a lot of power speed prospects struggled majorly with strikeouts early in his minorly career,
Starting point is 00:34:17 but that changed this year an 18.9% strikeout rate between double and AAA this year, which is not bad at all. The end zone contact rate is pretty low, but I'm not exactly sure. I'm not exactly sure how much stock to put into that number yet. It's just one I've started to look into, and you know, you see some. good players with a not so good end-zone swingy strike rate or end-zone contact rate is how I should put it.
Starting point is 00:34:47 But it wasn't great for Lawrence Butler, but the strikeout rate was low. He hit 284 with 15 homers, 21 steals between double and AAA this year. And so far since getting the call to the athletics, you know, it's only been five games, but he struck out three times in 19 plate appearances. So even Major League
Starting point is 00:35:04 pitchers haven't been causing him to strike out much. And then he just hit a very long home run with 111 mile per hour exit velocity. So like the power seems to be legit for him. And I'm not to the point where I'm saying add Lawrence Butler in all five outfielder leagues like I am for Walner. But it could get to that point quickly.
Starting point is 00:35:24 And if you have a spot to play with, it's not a bad idea to beat the rush if it does happen. I actually have a few 15 team leagues where he wasn't picked up this past weekend. Yeah, 15 teamers. Yeah. I think coming up this week, he could wind up.
Starting point is 00:35:38 being a popular name. Lawrence Butler, he now has four barrels in five games played. So I noticed he's hitting the ball in the air a lot so far and the exit velocity looks like it's going to be pretty good. Again, if you have not checked it out, go watch Lawrence Butler's first home run. I mean, if I was creating a first career home run, Scott, in a lab, that is exactly what I would wanted to look like. It was just beautiful. I can't get enough of it. It was so great. Let's talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Kind of completely switching gears here from the good to the bad.
Starting point is 00:36:10 It's been a very disappointing year for Vlad Jr. He is down to a 264 batting average on the season, 18 home runs, a 775 OPS. Somebody pointed this out to me on Twitter. I do apologize. I should be giving you credit
Starting point is 00:36:24 for whoever tweeted at me. He has a lower OPS than Whitmeryfield. Think about that. Whitmeryfield, someone who was left for dead, he was going outside the top 150 picks this season. He has a higher OPS than someone who was a borderline first round pick
Starting point is 00:36:41 in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this year. He's a tough one to evaluate, I think, going into 2024, Scott, because the plate discipline still looks really great. The expected numbers are good. The stat cast numbers are good. The ground ball rate is actually down from last year, which is something we continuously ask Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to do. but it just kind of looks like that 2021 is a very clear outlier.
Starting point is 00:37:07 He's only 24 years old. I get it. Maybe he just turns around and has another monster year. He was the number one player in fantasy back in 2021. Last year, the 24th overall player. This year, 69th overall. What are your thoughts on Vlad Jr. Scott and how we might evaluate him moving forward? Well, it does seem like, and I know this theory was brought up heading into last year,
Starting point is 00:37:32 that maybe his home venue in Toronto is not well suited for him. Because during that season where he was the best player in fantasy, hit 48 home runs. Remember, it was split between Dunedin, Florida, Buffalo, and then finally Toronto, because of some COVID restrictions that were going on in Canada, they weren't able to play there for most of that 2021 season where he hit 48 home runs. And if you look at his home away splits from the last two years,
Starting point is 00:38:06 which have been a disappointment by comparison. So last year, full season in Toronto, okay, he actually did pretty well home. This year, though, only five of his 18 home runs have come at home. And it's been a difficult place for left-handed batters, especially. I know Guerrero is not left-handed, but he's somebody who likes to drive the ball the other way. And maybe it's having an impact on squashing his part.
Starting point is 00:38:32 power. That could be. You know, too many ground balls. That doesn't help either. Still, when you see a guy who's like 97s, 98s, 96s in all the categories that matter most on his stat cast page, you expect him to come around eventually. I mean, his expected batting average is 303. His expected slug is 517. You expect that to work itself out over time. and maybe it's not going to happen this year, but in the future, I would still bet on Guerrero being a very high-end fantasy bat
Starting point is 00:39:12 more often than not. As for how to evaluate him for next year, I'm going to be kind of careful. I might be careful than most... I might be more careful than most people. I think... Just based on the way it was drafted this year, I think most people are going to look at those stat cast readings and be like,
Starting point is 00:39:32 okay, this is still clearly a first-round caliber bat. I'm going to draft Vladimir Guerrero and round two or whatever, and that'll be discounted enough for them. I'm going to need more of a discount than that, because there are enough other good hitters that I feel more confident than the actual production in round two that I'm going to need a clearer discount for Guerrero than round two, I think, to invest in him. we'll see how the final quarter of the season goes.
Starting point is 00:40:00 I may change my opinion if he changes his production. But that's how I'm feeling right now is two years in a row of disappointment, some external factors that might be contributing to it. I'd rather play it more carefully. Just thinking about it now, I don't know if this will actually be a debate come draft season next year. but Cody Bellinger versus Vlad Jr., Scott, is that actually a debate in your mind,
Starting point is 00:40:29 or is just one year of bounce back production, not enough from Bellinger? I mean, especially when you consider that his exit velocity readings aren't that impressive and he's been as productive as he is. So give... They're kind of opposites in that way, right? It's crazy. Right. You would think Vladimir Guerrero
Starting point is 00:40:50 with his stats would have Bellinger's data and you'd think Bellinger, with his stats, would have Vladimir Guerrero's data. So, yeah, that's a weird one. I mean, obviously, if Bellinger had done this for several years in a row, I wouldn't worry about the data anymore. I'd just say, okay, this is who he is. He's able to overcome low-ex velocities, and I'm not worried about it.
Starting point is 00:41:17 But, I mean, you get these fluky seasons sometimes. that's going to give me pause with him too. And in the long run, I would still bet on Guerrero being a better, batter than Bellinger. Say that five times fast. So, no, I mean, for me, Bellinger is somebody I might look at, just go on top of mind here around 4, 5. And I'm thinking more like round 3, 4 for Guerrero,
Starting point is 00:41:45 but for my own personal taste. I'm not sure that's exactly where they're going to go, but that's my taste for them. All right, let's talk some news and notes. Mike Trout still has some pain in his left wrist and remains without a timetable for a return. He said, quote, I'm getting more confident with my swing.
Starting point is 00:42:01 Once it gets to a point where the pain is bearable, I'll be out there. Okay. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Aaron Judge won't require off-season surgery on his right big toe, which is actually very good news for his 2024 outlook. So hopefully no question marks for Aaron Judge heading into next year.
Starting point is 00:42:19 Jose Altuve left Tuesday's game after fouling a pitch off his left leg. X-rays came back negative, thankfully. Bobauchette started a rehab assignment at AAA on Tuesday. He was in the lineup as the DH, but plans to play shortstop on either Wednesday or Thursday.
Starting point is 00:42:34 Jordan Romano was activated from the IL and first day back, boom, 28th save of the year, just like that. Joe Ryan threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and is expected to embark on a rehab assignment within the next few days, he's been out since early August with a left groin strain. Nathan Avaldi threw another bullpen session on Tuesday. He's been out since late July with a right forearm strain.
Starting point is 00:42:59 Marcus Schroman is dealing with right rib discomfort and will not be activated Wednesday as the Cubs previously hoped. J.D. Martinez was back in the Dodgers lineup for the first time since August 6th. He's been dealing with lingering left hamstring and groin discomfort. Byron Buxton is getting better. but we'll need to go on a rehab assignment before returning. He's been out since August 4th with right hamstring tightness. Royce Lewis was activated and batting third in the twins lineup on Tuesday. He is 50% rostered, third base, and shortstop eligible.
Starting point is 00:43:32 Scott, any interest in Royce Lewis? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I would say he needs to be rostered in most leagues. You know, if you're talking shallower head-to-head leagues with only nine-man starting lineups and you're already set at third base, and shortstop, okay, maybe you don't have much need for Lewis. But somebody in your league probably does have a need at one of those positions. And he, you know, for sparse opportunities in the majors between all the innings,
Starting point is 00:44:01 or I mean, between all the injuries, Lewis has looked great. And he's looked good on his rehab assignment. And I think, you know, he's going to be, I think he's going to be a real asset down the stretch. And I don't worry so much about playing time. I think they're mostly going to let him play third base every day and just kind of have Jorge Polanco bounce around filling in as needed across the infield and a DH. And it might work itself out because Edward Julian was actually out of the lineup
Starting point is 00:44:28 due to a hamstring issue on Tuesday. So, you know, as we've seen before, again, these things usually work themselves out. Manuel Margot was placed on the aisle with loose bodies in his right elbow. As a result, Scott, yo boy, Jonathan Aranda was recalled but yes not in the lineup on Tuesday
Starting point is 00:44:46 no in typical Tampa Bay fashion Aranda has been crushing the minors this year 339 batting average 25 homers
Starting point is 00:44:55 eggs of velocities off the charts I just don't know if he's gonna play enough I don't either and this is this is what annoys me about the race
Starting point is 00:45:04 because this guy's 25 years old he looks like Mickey Mantle at AAA and they've waited this long to call him up. There are defensive limitations.
Starting point is 00:45:17 He's pretty much limited to second base and first base and doesn't play either very well. And of course, the race have pretty good options at both of those positions. But, you know, there's the D.H. If they wanted to work him in, they could. And he's kind of just wasting away at age 25. Like you said, it's not like fluky production either. You look at the exit velocity readings off the charts. You look at the plate discipline.
Starting point is 00:45:43 as good as you could ask for. In every way, Jonathan Oranda looks like an offensive force. Buddy bats left-handed and is a tough defensive fit, and so I don't know how it's going to play out. I think he needs to be rostered just in case he finds his way into the lineup because things could go really, really well. Like, genuinely, I think the sky's the limit for Jonathan Oranda, as long as you're not expecting, like, stolen bases, you know?
Starting point is 00:46:06 Mm-hmm. I mean, even in just his past four games prior to this call-up, You mentioned he's been incredible all season long, but 529 with five home runs in his past four games. Wow. It's time, man. Rays, get a Ronda in the lineup. And it kind of feels like Tampa Bay could use another bat in their lineup because they were shut out here on Tuesday. And if you look over the last 30 days as a team, they're 15th in Wobah.
Starting point is 00:46:38 So, you know, they're just kind of middle of the pack. We know July was a brutal month for Tampa Bay. I think they need more offense, and I think they can get that with Aranda. It's just, will they play him? That is the question. With Ozzy Albies on the IL, Vaughn Grissom was recalled from AAA,
Starting point is 00:46:53 but was also not in the lineup on Tuesday. Nikki Lopez started at second base, and I think a sneaky aspect, which I didn't bring up yesterday, Michael Harris has hit second in the Braves lineup two days in a row. So as well as Michael Harris has played over the past, what, two and a half months,
Starting point is 00:47:11 The counting stats have been lackluster because he bats at the bottom of the lineup. As long as Ozzy Albies is out, it feels like, you know, maybe those counting stats get a boost here for Michael Harris. Nicola Dolow shifted his rehab assignment from the Arizona Complex League to AA. He is trending toward a late August return and is currently 64% rostered. Hunter Harvey was activated by the Nationals. Scott, I'm guessing Kyle Finnegan remains the closer there. He's pitched very well.
Starting point is 00:47:38 And I would guess so. Hunter Harvey did work the ninth inning, a scoreless ninth inning here on Tuesday, but not in a safe situation. It's actually a losing game for the Nationals. They lost by one run. Yeah, I mean, Finnegan's been so good since Harvey's been out that I would be surprised if they made a change. Ryan Helsie's rehab appearance was paused due to soreness. He's been out since June with a right forearm train. Tanner Halk is set to return Monday and start against the Astros. Scott, do you think the Red Sox go with a six-man rotation, or do they boot one of Cutter Crawford or Nick Pavetta
Starting point is 00:48:16 once Tanner Hawk returns? I don't know. A lot of teams are going six-man, at least for a turn or two, this time of year, which is very frustrating when you're trying to predict pitching matchups a week ahead of time. I speak from personal experience. But, yeah, eventually they'll cut it down to five, and I would imagine it would be one of those two getting the bump, Crawford or Pavetta.
Starting point is 00:48:43 I want to say Crawford, just given the way he's pitched recently, but Pavetta has plenty of bullpen experience, so it may be him. Lastly, I do have a prospect update here. Ray's shortstop prospect, Carson Williams, was promoted from high A to AAA, completely skipping AA. He's 20 years old, a former first round pick from 2021. He was hitting 262 with 18 home runs, 14 seals, and an 865 OPS.
Starting point is 00:49:09 I highly doubt we see him this year, Scott, but the fact that Carson Williams has been pushed to AAA, maybe he could make an impact next year for Tampa Bay. Yeah, maybe. I am a skeptic as far as Carson Williams' fantasy value goes because he struck out at a 30% rate, even in the low minors against pitchers who throw a lot of fastballs.
Starting point is 00:49:32 He does have power. He plays good defense. That's part of the reason why he shows up high on traditional prospect rank lists. And, you know, we've seen more and more players in recent years overcome a high strikeout rate. But that's a really high strikeout rate at a really low level of play. And so I'm more of a Carson Williams skeptic than most prospect evaluators, I would say. All right, let's take our final break. When we return, Rapid Fire.
Starting point is 00:50:01 We've got some unsung heroes from this season and some leftovers. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back, and let's quickly run through some of the unsung heroes, specifically some hitters from this season. You know, guys, we just haven't talked about that much, and they just continue to get it done. Nico Horner went two for three with his 30th stolen base. He is now one of seven players with 30 steals.
Starting point is 00:50:25 So far this season, Nolan Aronado went four for five with his 25th home run. Remember when he had that awful April? Me neither. It's been just a classic, Nolan Aronado, great year, 289 batting average, 25 homers, and an 852 OPS. Luis Robert went 2 for 5 with his 32nd home run, just quietly having a great year, the best year of Luis Robert's career. Basically what we've always wanted him to do.
Starting point is 00:50:52 I think we just don't hear anything about it because the White Sox are so bad. But he's got 32 homers, 16 steals, he's batting 273. It's been an awesome year for Luis Robert. Christian Walker won for four with his 26th home run, has 300. homers in his past four games. And Jorge Soler, one for four, with his 30th home run, he becomes the eighth hitter this season with 30 or more homers. It's got lots of names here.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Again, just guys, we haven't really talked too much about anything to add on Solair, Christian Walker, Luis Robert, Aronado, and Horner. One thing that immediately came to mind with Horner is I continue to be surprised every time I do my big weekly rankings update and I look at, and one of the things I look at is players' point per game production for the year. Horner, obviously a guy without much power,
Starting point is 00:51:45 strikeout rate is low, which helps in points leagues, but with so little power, you wouldn't expect them to be that productive on a per game basis. But something we have to keep in mind is, you know, stolen bases have they change in a category's league, their value relative to the rest of the league.
Starting point is 00:52:07 So a stolen base is worth less now in a roto league than it was for the past decade plus when stolen bases weren't so prevalent. But in a points league, a stolen base's value is independent of what anyone else is doing. It's two points apiece, no matter what. So when a good base dealer goes from being
Starting point is 00:52:27 a 20 to 25 steal, steel guy to a 40 plus steel guy, that's going to make a big difference in terms of how we think of base Steelers in points leagues. Horner right now, he entered today with 29 steals. Did he steal base today? I don't remember. Yeah, he became one of, what did I say, seven players with 30 or more steals. So he's basically on a 40 steel pace.
Starting point is 00:52:48 3.45 head-to-head points per game for Horner this season, which is not so far off from Fernando Tatis 3.51. It is, he has been a truly elite shortstop or second basement, I guess, in points leagues this year, not just, not just a usable player. But for non-power hitter, truly elite in that format. Yeah. And even in Roto, Scott, Nico Horner entered Tuesday as the fourth best second baseman in head to head points and in Roto, the 23rd overall player in Categories
Starting point is 00:53:25 leagues this year, Nico Horner. So he has been awesome. Luis Robert, I think, will be a fun one to talk about in the offseason, about, you know, he probably should have been in our top two rounds the rest of year. I mean, just, you know, based on what he's done this season. And his prospect pedigree, it's like, we always thought he can reach this level, and he's basically just doing it. So shout out to Luis Robert.
Starting point is 00:53:46 Great year for him. Let's get into some leftovers, and we did have a pitching duel out in Toronto. It's time to do, do, do, do. Zach Wheeler, up against Husey Kikuchi. Zach Wheeler, seven innings, one run, five strikeouts with 14 swinging strikes. And you say Kikuchi, six innings, one run, seven strikeouts, zero walks. Kikuchi, someone who typically gives up a lot of hard contact. That's been a big issue for him in the past.
Starting point is 00:54:15 He allowed zero hard hits in this game against the Phillies and has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts. And I know we get caught up, Scott, looking at, and it's part of the process, right? If this is what you do, it's what you do. Stick to your process. We look at FIP and X-FIP and X-E-R-A and K-M-Minesis walk rate and all those types of things. But at some point, when we have a 14-star stretch like this
Starting point is 00:54:42 where Yusay Kikuchi has been one of the better pitchers in baseball, I don't know. I kind of just throw my arms up and say, maybe we should trust it. I don't know. Well, depends what trust means. Get them in your lineups, you know, must-star pitcher. I don't think you say Kakuchi has transcended the blob. The blob terminology midstream.
Starting point is 00:55:08 I don't think you say Kakuchi has transcended the glob with this recent performance, but it may have put him in the glob so that, you know, we treat him like any other pitcher in the glob. When he's going well, when he has good matchups, when he has two-star weeks, you just brought him out. there and take whatever comes. And lately it's been a lot of good. But I do think at some point we will be unhappy with Yusay Kikuchi again.
Starting point is 00:55:38 I don't think he has, I don't think he has emerged as like a, you know, a high-end pitcher or anything. I just think he's made himself usable with this impressive run he's been on. And that should be enough to satisfy us in this pitching environment where, that is what most pitchers are. It's merely usable. I'll tell you, I'd rather start Yusay Kikuchi over names like Lucas Gilido right now, Charlie Morton.
Starting point is 00:56:08 You know, these are guys that have struggled as of late. And again, they're all kind of part of this glob, but those guys are kind of trending down and Kikuchi is trending up. So I think I'd rather start him right now. So good job by Yasekakuchi. Yeah, no, I'd rather start him than those guys too. In fact, I don't even know that I consider
Starting point is 00:56:25 Charlie Morton in the glob anymore. All right, fair enough. Bad results from these two pitchers, but the velocity was up quite a bit on both of them. Just quick thoughts here, Scott. I don't know that it matters. Luis Severino, he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. I was watching this start. The final line is bad.
Starting point is 00:56:42 He gave up five runs over four innings, but he actually looked pretty good. I don't know, he was like pitching with more conviction and confidence and fastball velocity was up 1.5 miles per hour. His cutter was up two miles per hour. He looked a little bit more sharp, but the results were not there for Luis Severino. Lucas Gielito, he struggled once again, but his fastball velocity up nearly two miles per hour. His changeup was up 2.3. His slider was up two miles per hour.
Starting point is 00:57:08 Scott, does this matter at all? Severino and Gialito. Need to see a lot more from Severino. I want to trust him on any level right now. Gialito, I think the issue for him is that he was just overachieving for the early stretch of the season. So first 19 starts this season, we presumed, okay, Lucas Golito, he's bounced back from the disastrous 2020.
Starting point is 00:57:28 He's back to being the guy we saw from 2019 through 2021. But Gialito on 2019 through 2021, 11.1K per 9. And his first 19 starts this year just 9.4K per 9. Golito in 2019 through 2021, between a 15% and 17% swinging strike rate among the best in all of baseball. First 19 starts this year just a 12% swinging strike rate. Good, but not great. So I just don't think the stuff is there. He got better results with the diminished stuff this year.
Starting point is 00:58:05 There's not first 19 starts this year than he did last year, but you look at the ERA estimators, they weren't that great. And I think he's just, I think he's just regressed to the mean here in recent starts. It doesn't mean you can't use them. It doesn't mean he won't give you a quality start more often than not. But it does mean he is, as they say, and they being me. Globy. Globy.
Starting point is 00:58:26 Bobby. Bobby. Remember Candyland? Yeah. The molasses swamp, that character in the middle. Remember what his name was? There's no chance that I remember actual characters or pieces on Candyland. I probably play Candyland more recently than, by the way, Kitteland is dreadful.
Starting point is 00:58:44 There are a lot of good kids board games. Candyland is, you just can't wait for it to be over. Anyway, Gloppy. That's what it was? That was his name, Gloppy. Yeah. I kind of wish I called the glob the glop now so that gloppy could be the mascot. Well, Scott, you have a whole offseason to trademark it if you'd like.
Starting point is 00:59:04 So I think we could, we could cook something up there. Yeah, I play a lot of, I guess it's considered a board game. I played trouble a lot. You played trouble, Scott? It's this guy in the chat. He just asked, Candyland has characters. Come on. Come on.
Starting point is 00:59:21 Queen Frostine, Princess Lollipop. I have no idea. Lord Licarish. That scary castle? No clue. It's been a while since I've played in some Candyland. Anyway, all right, trouble. Pop-O-Matic double.
Starting point is 00:59:34 What were you going to say about that? It was just, yeah, it was a game that I played a lot growing up. That's frustrating too because you have to get, you get to a point in trouble where you have to get the exact number. Yeah. Like the last, the last little peg into the last little hole. It's three away. And if you don't get three, you get four or whatever.
Starting point is 00:59:51 You've got to go all the way around the, oh my gosh. Some kids, like, just, you're just, you're just, ruining games for kids because you introduce them to this junk. Let's talk some positive pitching leftovers from Tuesday. Bryce Elder got back on track against the Yankees. He threw seven shutout innings.
Starting point is 01:00:08 Only one hit allowed, three walks to three strikeouts in that one. Jordan Montgomery tied a season high with nine strikeouts against the Angels. Michael Waka, in his return, he pitched very well against the Orioles. He went five shutout innings with five strikeouts there. And Bobby Miller
Starting point is 01:00:24 has allowed just one earned run total over his last two starts. He's gone six innings in each, and maybe he's turning it back around. Scott, any thoughts here? Bobby Miller, Michael Waka, Montgomery, and Bryce Elder. Yeah, so I did notice for Bryce Elder that this was his first start
Starting point is 01:00:41 throwing more sliders than sinkers since July 3rd. And July 3rd was kind of the end of good Bryce Elder, interestingly enough. It was an interesting correlation there. And in the five starts since that July 3rd, start, Elder had a 648 ERA, goes back to throw more sliders in this one, gets a better result. I don't necessarily think it's problem solved. I think he's more globby than not and was
Starting point is 01:01:08 pitching over his head for most of the year. But I don't think, I don't think he's nearly as bad as a 648 ERA. So, you know, we can continue to treat him like other members of the glob, I would say. Michael Waka look great. I think his numbers are still too good to be true. But, but, you know, but he's positioned himself back in the glob again. Bobby Miller, very encouraging start for Bobby Miller. I think he's had a couple of those in a row, right? Yeah, two starts in a row, six innings, one run or less. I'm still a little gun-shy with him, but kind of like Logan Allen.
Starting point is 01:01:44 He's maybe trending the right direction, at least. Some quick hitting leftover. CJ Abrams was back in the Nationals lineup. He went one for three with a walk in his 30th steel. he joined Nico Horner as the seventh player with 30 or more steals this season. Teosker Hernandez had the second five-hit game of his career went five-for-five with his 18th home run of the year,
Starting point is 01:02:05 and Bobby Witt Jr. Continues his Torrid second half, the summer of Bobby Witt, one for four with a grand slam, his 23rd homer of the season. The call to the bullpen, a few updates here for the Guardians. Emmanuel Class A picked up his 32nd save for the Astros. Ryan Presley picked up his 28.
Starting point is 01:02:24 I mentioned for the Blue Jays, Jordan Romano. First game back, his actually 29th save. I said 28th earlier, excuse me. For the Red Sox, Kenley Janssen struck out one for his 28th save. For the Pirates, David Bednar, picked up his 25th. For the twins, Yohan Duran, entered the 9th with a three-run lead. He did give up a run, but picked up his 22nd save. For the White Sox, Gregory Santos, got the final five outs.
Starting point is 01:02:51 He struck out three for his fourth save. He is only 25% rostered, so if you are desperate for saves, I don't know that the White Sox will win many games, but he looks like the unquestioned closer there. For the Mariners, Andres Munoz, it's been a little bit rocky here. He entered the eighth inning with one out, two runners on, and a three-run lead. He did get the final two-outs of the eighth.
Starting point is 01:03:13 He stayed on for the ninth, which featured an error, a walk, another walk, a two-run single, and then a game-tying single to Salvador Perez and Munoz. I kind of feel like maybe they're overworking him, Scott, you know, bring him off of the eighth. You know, he sits back down in the dugout. He comes back out. And I think this is a second blown save since they've traded Paul Seawald. It's a little bit worrisome.
Starting point is 01:03:36 Yeah, I mean, we wanted to see them treat Munoz like a true closer. But the downside to that is that they're really treating him like a true closer, meaning they're working him harder than he's ever been worked before. And he has an extensive injury history. Of course, he throws very hard. And he's having trouble with it. So this was his third appearance in his last four games. He ended up throwing 42 pitches in it.
Starting point is 01:04:00 Velocity was down a mile per hour and a half. He's got obviously after this adding, he's going to need a couple days of rest at least. But I think in the long run, we'll still be happy with him in the closer role. Career ERA 287, career whip 103, career K per 9, 12.9. I mean, that sounds like a closer, doesn't it? Sure does. Speaking of the former Mariners closer, Paul Seawald, he allowed three hits but picked up his 24th save. And for the Rockies, one day after I praised Justin Lawrence and how great of a job he has done, he gave up five runs in the ninth, took his fifth blown save and sixth loss of the season.
Starting point is 01:04:38 To stream or not to stream, let's start with Wednesday. And who did we say yesterday? I think it was, man, this was not a good day. I was, we talked about Resolson against the twins again after eight strikeouts last time. He strike a lot out a lot against right-handers especially. I brought up Libertor versus Oakland as a real roll of the dice kind of pick. But Cardinals seeming really encouraged by that last start when his velocity was way up, that it wasn't just a fluke occurrence, that he actually did something mechanically to
Starting point is 01:05:15 make that happen. So if, you know, if you're willing, if you're willing to gamble on upside at the risk of a very bad outing, Liberator is somebody you could consider Wednesday. What about Dean Kramer at the Padres? Yeah, that's not bad. Very RNG. So, I mean, sort of the same situation as Liberator. You could give you a quality start or you could give up seven runs and you just have to live
Starting point is 01:05:41 with whatever it is. All right. on Thursday, it is a very short slate of games. I think we've only got six games on Thursday. The only one I could see us may be using is Jose Cantana at the Cardinals in a revenge game, Scott. I think it's fine. You are turning into Robots, Scott,
Starting point is 01:05:59 which means it is time to get out of here, and I think he was just saying Jose Cantana is fine at the Cardinals on Thursday. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on.
Starting point is 01:06:13 Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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