Fantasy Baseball Today - MLB Playoff Debate! Evaluating 2024 Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts! (10/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 10, 2024

The MLB Playoffs have been fun, but Scott is not a fan of the format (3:20). ... Which sleepers were we most right about this season (14:14)? ... Why were we wrong about Nick Pivetta and Colt Keith (27:04)? ... What's next for Henry Davis (37:58)? ... Jarren Duran was our biggest breakout hit (41:03)! ... We were wrong about Jake Burger and Ke'Bryan Hayes (53:03). ... Which busts did we get right and wrong this year (1:00:54)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Way back in January, we published our first round of sleepers, breakouts, and bust. And it's time to find out how we did. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, October,

10th. I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we'll take a closer look at our biggest hits and misses from Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bust before the season, and provide some playoff updates. How about those Mets, man? They are amazing. Incredible stuff. What a moment with Lindorah hitting that three-run Homer. Or Grand Slam? Grand Slam, man. Grand Slam, yeah, he's the best. I'm so happy for him. I'm so, like, he's, he's, was very gracious about like oh we did it for the Mets fans we love you guys and if I was him I'd be like I heard you guys booing me I remember Puerto Rico remembers yeah man and you know what he's just so stoic about everything too he's just rounding the bases like it's a home run in

April he just doesn't have a care in the world he's just yeah man he's got that demeanor and that's our great story great story right now in baseball can I can I can I be the thing I'm best which is a wet blanket. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. And, you know, maybe make Mets fans mad, but they probably don't like me that much anyway because I'm a Braves fan.

It really has nothing to do with the Mets. I'd be saying this if the Royals advance, too. It bothers me that the third best team in a division is now at worst the second best team in a league. That bothers me. That troubles me. Okay. but like they weren't actually the third best team, right?

But they were technically. We took 162 games to sort it out and they came in third. Yeah, but they tied. I'm pretty sure we did this exact thing last year, Scott, and I came to the conclusion that according to you, we should just crown a champion at the end of the regular season. Well, there has to be a certain trade-off. I just think we've gone too far.

I'm actually not that interested in the playoffs because it just feels cheap to me. Like, I've been paying attention to them to the extent that I think I need to do my job, and that's it. Maybe that reveals a certain lack of sentimentality on my part. I'll accept that if that's the case. But it just, I think we've crossed a threshold where the playoffs have been cheapened because they've watered down the regular season so much, so much. This is like the most Braves fan take possible, right? Like you've spent your entire life being like regular seasons the only thing that matters.

Post seasons a crapshoot. Who cares? 15 straight division titles. And of course you think the playoffs have been cheapened because your team loses in the playoffs every year. Well, there was 2021. That wasn't that long ago. But I mean, to a certain, you have a point. I've always felt like the playoffs were a crapshoot.

It was an idea echoed or maybe presented in Moneyball as well. So it's not like it's unique to me. But the fact that like the last two years with it's only been two years, right, that this has been implemented. That sounds right? Two or three. The best teams have been eliminated so early. And we're, we're, the playoffs are continuing with these.

teams that people weren't even talking about for most of the regular season. It's like they just kind of backed their way into the playoffs and then happened to win a couple games at the right time. I think, you know, you said a lack of sentimentality on your part. I think it's actually you are being sentimental because what you are saying is that there should be a significance ascribe to the playoffs that there is because of the increased randomness of it. And for me, like I think the, the.

randomness is a is a feature of any playoff like it's not just baseball i think baseball is probably at this point you like you like the sentiment of the like i'm saying that i think the current structure of the playoffs doesn't do a good job of crowning a champion right no i agree i just don't okay like i so you enjoy the sentimentality of it you enjoy the dramatic home runs and uh because i see a lot of people saying this has been a great playoffs i think they may be sentimental in different ways. Okay. Like I think you are like the sanctity of the game has been harmed by the randomness of the playoffs and that the best team should win more often. And for me, like, I don't like personally care about college basketball. I think it's just an uninterested

product that don't like watching college basketball. But there's no doubt that the tournament is one of the most fun things in sports because it's gay. And I think like the best team, does not win very often in the college basketball tournament by design. And like the NBA playoffs, I watch them, but I think relative to other sports, the NBA playoffs are kind of uninteresting because there are so few upsets, there's so few, so little chaos. Like the NHL playoff, what's the, what's the John Boyce tweet? You ever wanted to know what it's like to ride a helicopter out of a helicopter while high on cocaine, just watch the NFL playoff overtime?

Like that is, that is, I think the feature of it. And I think the randomness is for me a good thing as far as the entertainment value of the MLB postseason. But I agree, like if you want the best team in baseball to stand alone at the top of the mountain, don't care about the playoffs because you're not going to find out. The dogs are the best example of this, partially because they're, their pets heads keep falling off by September every year. But like, they're probably on the level the best team in baseball of in the last five years.

They just, they have one title to show for it. And it was in 2020 because things always go wrong for them by the play. And so Frank, Frank is saying what I really want is just that we crown a winner at the end of the regular season. And no, that's not really what I want. I mean,

the playoffs do add a level of intensity. that I think is necessary, but I think qualifying for the playoffs should be more difficult. I think advancing in the playoffs should be more difficult, I think. And it used to be. I think the best playoff format baseball had

was the one right before this where you had the play-in game for the wild card, and then you had a best-of-five series, a best-of-seven series, and then the World Series. And no-bys, nobody had to sit out for a week.

I know some people didn't like, the one game playoff. I think if it's more as a play-in game between the two wild card teams, but the idea is it actually emphasized the regular season more because it made it really important that you won your division. And I like that aspect of it. And you didn't win your division. Okay, you leave your season to a coin flip. That's fine. I thought that was the best. And I think, I think this latest playoff format has been a big step back. I will say this idea that some people have that like having a buy is a disadvantage is just like go back to like 10th grade math and learn about probabilities because like if you gave every number one seat in baseball the choice

of you have to play a three or a three game series or you don't play for four days every single one of them every single time yes and like even if you great i think that's arguing a separate point No, no, no, I'm going up. Rusty in baseball. Of course you take the buy. Obviously, it's better to advance for free, but you'd rather not be rusty. And the buy requires that somebody's rusty. Even if, let's say the team with the buy is at a 40-60 disadvantage in the second round of the playoffs.

Let's grant that. That's not the case. I think that would be an exceptionally large gap. But let's grant it. That means you have a 40% chance of moving on to the, the championship series. If you're, let's call it a coin flip to advance out of the first round and then a 60% chance to win in the second.

That still comes out to 30%. You'd still rather be the team with the buy every time. And I'm amazed at how many people think having a buy is a disadvantage. It is blowing my mind how few people understand the basic probabilities at play here. In a sport where there is more variance. than any other, I would say. Anything can happen in a best of three, like a best of five series, right?

The White Sox swept, who did they sweep? They switched a playoff team, right? No, the Angels. Oh, okay, it was the Angels. Still, that can happen. The worst team ever can win a series. I understand what you're saying, Scott, with expanding the playoffs and more teams getting in,

but also, like, the best team, still have to perform in the playoffs. And honestly, the past couple years, we haven't seen that. I mean, both teams who just made it to the World Series last year were a wildcard team. So at some point, they just have to show up. The Dodgers wouldn't have been, the Dodgers wouldn't have been in any better shape if they hadn't had a buy week. You know, like the Braves last year wouldn't have been like the problem with the, with the Dodgers the last two years and the Braves last year wasn't that they had all this time off. The problem was that their pitching staffs completely fell apart in both instances. But.

if there was no buy, then nobody could use the buy as an excuse either. Like it just introduces a variable that doesn't need to be there. And isn't something baseball is accustomed to. Well, you know what's got money, money talks. We need more teams in the playoffs. Yeah, I don't think they're going to go back. There's no way. I don't enjoy the playoffs as much anymore and I don't have to.

You certainly don't have to, Scott, but I would implore you to watch them because these Mets games, every single one of them, is just filled with drama. And so regardless, if you like the Mets or not, what a blah, blah, blah. They're a wildcar team. Their games have been very entertaining. I actually do think you have to, Scott. I'm going to call the police.

All right. Well, we have spent the first 10 minutes. Let's take a break. When we return, we will talk about the sleepers that we got right and wrong. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, the sleeper that we got most right. And Chris, you are up first. Jacks and Marrow.

I was looking back at my sleeper's column from, it was like late February when I wrote it. So there had been very little hype about Jackson Merrill at that point. But his ADP as of late February was 600. He was a little bit better than the 600 best player. And even if you just look at the final two weeks before the start of the season, his ADP only got up to 256.6. in NFC drafts.

And this is, you know, when Wyatt Langford was at 76.5. And Jackson Churio was 115.8. And Evan Carter was a little higher still. It was like all the rookies got a ton of hype. And nobody gave Jackson Merrill the credit that, I mean, clearly he deserved.

But just looking back, like, all rookies are uncertain. And I think what happens, happened here was we collectively acted like there was so much more certainty about the number one and three and four prospects in baseball than the number 10 or 12 prospect, which is what Jackson Merrill was. Now, I know he was 20. He had never played above AA. His numbers in the minors weren't particularly impressive. It is rare for a player to hit the majors as a 21-year-old and hit better than he ever had before.

That's what Jackson Merrill did, but isn't that the case? Like, isn't, that's what we're, that's what you're betting on when you draft rookies, that they're going to hit the ground running and do something relatively unprecedented. And Jackson Merrill just never really got that benefit of the doubt. And he's going to go 200, 220 spots higher

than that 256 last two weeks. ADP this year? Yeah, and it goes back to Scott's lesson learned that we spoke about on our previous podcast is, you know, you might not want to be the first person who takes the top prospect inside the top 100 or top 150 picks, but when you can get one outside the top 250 as a late round pick and, okay, if this doesn't work out, I could just drop this player, whatever, no love loss, it doesn't really matter. Yeah, you could take that risk. And, you know, look, in deeper leagues, you probably had to be a little bit patient because not like Merrill was great the first month or two. but I think part of his appeal

and maybe what we can kind of take from him and I guess hope from prospects moving forward is prospects that have like really good plate discipline I mean that was something that always stood out from Merrill all season long is that he had a great feel at the plate, great back control and he started to figure out okay how can I manipulate the barrel to

hit for more power and things like that like the speed was always there but yeah that's kind of my feel The thing with Jackson Merrill when I finally watched him, because obviously, you know, I wasn't watching a lot of San Antonio, I don't know what their missions. I wasn't watching a lot of San Antonio missions ball in 2023. So when I first saw Jackson Merrill, the thing that stood out, how big he was. Like the way he played, it felt more like a slap hitter profile. And then I actually saw him and it's like, he kind of looked like Eric Cosmer.

Like he's six foot three, 200 pounds plus. So, you know, the idea that he would grow into power was something that the prospect, the scouts always said. And that's exactly what we saw as his rookie season went on. So, yeah, if you get a chance to bet on a top 20 prospect at a not exorbitant cost, you should definitely take it. Because worst case scenario, you're probably dropping your 18th pick anyway. Yeah. I think there needs to be an attitude of, I'm not that kind of. confident in what any rookie hitters going to do.

And so I want the ones who are going to cost me nothing. I want to take a gamble here and there, but I want it to be a low-cost gamble. I want it to be an actual lottery ticket in the sense that it cost me a very small amount to hopefully get a big payoff. And you did eventually get the big payoff from Jackson Jorio. but it would have been actually a little bit better, a little bit more from Merrill for a much, much lower cost. And then White Langford obviously didn't pay off so much. So yeah, that's going back to the lessons learned our last show.

That is another way of putting it. Yeah, with Jackson Merrill being a success here. All right, Scott, let's stick with you. And the sleeper you got most right this season. Well, I could have gone with Merrill, but since we already talked about him, will go with Chris Sale, who is poised to win NL. Sy Young. And this one's a little personal for me because I took a lot of heat over the years for

standing by Chris Sale is still a potentially great pitcher, a potential ace if he could only stay healthy. And I know that was a big if only, but you look at the kind of injuries he was suffering. he did have the Tommy John surgery, but it was like a stress reaction in the rib cage. You're a fractured wrist. Fractured wrist. It was a lot of freak stuff.

And I'll admit, heading into last offseason, I was tempted to just kind of give up the whole Chris Sale dream. I was just tired of having to answer for it, basically. But then the Braves traded for him. Homer. And Alex Anthopoulos basically was echoing, When he was explaining the justification of the deal, he basically echoed all the points I'd been making for years.

If you look at sales numbers in between the injuries, he still is dominant. And a lot of these injuries are freak injuries. And we think he can stay healthy. And he did stay healthy, and he was an ace, and huge payoff to everybody who drafted him. Yeah, the preseason ADP for sale 127. He finished ninth overall.

He was a top three starting pitcher in both formats, likely to win the National League, Cy Young. And again, I think this kind of, at least for me, goes back to a lesson I brought up the other day and just drafting skills, right? I think we all pretty much thought that Chris Sale still had the skills. Obviously, like, we haven't seen them throw this many innings in a long time. But with an ADP of 127, you can take that risk as you're, you know,

at that point in the draft SP3, SP4. Now, for next year, you know, it's probably going to cost you a second or a third round pick. That's a lot different. with drafting Chris Sale, but yeah, I think once you get outside the top 100, you can afford to take maybe some risks on starting pitchers, but ones that, you know, we do think still have lots of swing and miss and talent in their arm. For me, I think the sleeper I got most right, and the one I was probably most adamant about and drafted on the most teams is Shoda Imanaga. His preseason 80P was 176, and he finished as a top seven starting pitcher in both Roto and head to head points. Just a huge rookie season. My thought process coming into the year was, remember that graphic we got from, I think it was Inosaris before the season, that Imanaga was number one in Stuff Plus in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. So that was one thing that stood out to me. I thought he was being overshadowed because he came over at the same time that Yoshinobu Yamamoto did. And obviously, Yamamoto was the prize asset, you know, phenom

coming over from Japan. And rightfully so, I totally understand why he was as hyped as he was. But Imanaga, you know, a lefty that throws 91, 92, he just kind of flew under the radar and it just felt like there wasn't that much hype for him. I was pretty intrigued by the skill set too. A left-handed pitcher who has that kind of deceptive riding fastball and an awesome splitter. I mean, we just don't see that skill set a lot in Major League Baseball. So all those three things kind of just wrapped in together had me pretty intrigued on Imanaga coming into the season. I think he's really interesting for next year as well. He's mostly a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and splitter combined for 82% of his pitches this past season.

And, you know, one thing I think I want to do more of moving forward is getting away from a player, from drafting a player high after one huge season. Now, if he does it two years in a row, I think you can argue after that. All right, yes, he's worthy of that draft slot. But if Imanaga's a top 50 pick and like a top 10 or top 15th, starting pitcher drafted next year, I don't know that it's going to be me who drafts him in a saga next season. So what do you guys think about that? You know, when I first started really getting into fantasy baseball, that was one of the rules I lived by was you need that second year for me to buy it.

And, you know, I've obviously gotten away from that over the years, in part because, you know, back then, we're talking 20 plus years ago. People were just, players were just generally ranked according to how they did the previous year. And that, of course, isn't true at all. So now these one-year wonders, they get, they tend to be discounted just because of that. Just because, okay, he came out of nowhere. He's only done it one year. We're going to discount him.

And sometimes the discount is so steep that it's like, well, there's a lot of potential payoff here. But in Imanaga's case, I don't. know that there is going to be such a discount because I think people generally binded the skill set. And as I'm sitting here explaining this, I pretty much bind to the skill set. I think he probably deserves to be between the 15th and 20th pitcher selected next year. So I'm saying a lot of words without a real conclusion. I don't know what I want to do. I get what you're saying, though. I just, I don't know if I really consider I'ma one year wonder. And to be To be fair, I don't think he's a one-year wonder either.

I think there's a real good chance that he's valuable next season. I also think the most likely outcome is that he does regress at least a little bit. And I would say the same thing about Chris Sale. Like those guys were huge wins last year. Now you have to pay the premium to get them this upcoming season in 2025. I would rather try and find the next Chris Sale or the next Imanaga in 2025 and maybe take pitchers that have done it for longer or don't have the same injury history as a Chris Sale.

Yeah, like, I just look at like Shodi Minaga and, I mean, kind of both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as very similar types of pitchers. And you've seen with those two guys, things can go wrong. And Shoday Minaga, for the most part, avoided things going wrong, right? He gave up 27 home runs, but it didn't really hurt him that much because he really limited base runners really well. And that might just be a skill. but it might also just be that

most of the home runs he gave up were one run home runs and next year he might give up more three run home runs you know maybe he faces Willie Adamas a couple more times or something like that but you know if for me it's I ranked him 17th in my first run through the SP rankings sounds like Scott's going to be in a similar spot I don't think he's going to be a priority for me and if that you know like you said ends up being a fifth round pick

that doesn't sound like a pick I want to make because I'm probably not drafting a second starting pitcher that early especially one with some like innings limitations like I don't think we're ever going to see Shodaymanaga who's 31 and who is not thrown 200 innings ever

I don't think we're going to see him become a real inning standout like I think he's always going to be someone who is on the shorter end of the volume side and so it's just like I think he'll be fine if he gets drafted there, it just probably won't be me.

All right, before we get to the sleeper that we got most wrong, do want to promote a few things. Sign up for the FBT newsletter if you haven't already. CBSports.com slash newsletters. You click on that FBT logo, punch in your email address, and it's easy as that. Chris actually revealed his way too early 2025 sleepers in his latest newsletter,

so make sure to subscribe there, and download and follow our five-minute podcast, Fantasy Baseball Today and Five. We will have a bonus episode coming out every Saturday of the off season. Sleeper, we got most wrong. And why? What was the thought process behind it?

Why did this go wrong? Scott, you're up first. When I got most wrong, I'm going to say, there are ones that are wronger than this. I will just put out there if you want to go review the column, but there just isn't anything interesting

to say about them. Like Joe Boyle, for instance, was on my sleepers because the cost was extremely low and his 90th percentile outcome was extremely impressive. And of course, he was completely useless this year. But it was really easy to drop him after one start. Right. Like, it didn't really hurt you that much. Uh, so I'm going to say instead, Nick Pavetta, because he ended up having the same full season in 2024 that he had in 2023, just over more

starts, but the ratios pretty much were identical across the board. And so, you know, I was looking at the increased strike throwing in the second half, how dominant he was in sort of a swing man role for the Red Sox in 2023 and thinking that could translate to a full season of starting. And in the end, he just, he just was kind of Nick Pavetta again. And there's going to be a, when we do the miss among my breakouts and there's going to be a similar situation to that but the the idea here

is that players with a long track record and you know in their late 20s early 30s they probably will default to who they've always been even with even if

there's an apparent skill change that you can point to to say okay this is why he's better he has to be that much better over the full season. It's kind of taking the same logic with Ranger Suarez. Remember early this season it's like, okay, yeah, he is throwing more strikes. He is locating that change of better,

but can he do it over a full season? Or is that skill going to regress to what it normally is? And in the long run, it regress to what it normally is. And so you can take these small sample skill, changes and just like skills and just like small sample production they can be fakeouts they can be fake outs and it was in nick pavetta's case this is one of my kind of hobby horses right is that like we've gotten so much better about knowing what matters and what doesn't and identifying skills and getting past the noise and i think a lot of people still forget that sometimes guys just get

hot. And we, when guys got hot in the past, we, we were less sophisticated and we, we'd say, oh, he ran a high babbip or a low babb or, you know, whatever. We attribute it to luck. We didn't attribute it to the skills improving. And like, whether you want to call it luck, whether you want to call it chance, randomness, whatever, sometimes guys just play better for X number of games. And that's not to say that these partial season breakouts aren't real or can't be. It's just full season statistics tend to be more predictive than partial season statistics. Yeah. And so if a new Nick Povetta appears in this year's player pool, I don't know who it would be. I'm not, well, I'm not necessarily not going to draft that guy, but like you need,

you really need it to come at a discount, the sort of discount where if he does regress to his normal self, it's not like it's going to cost you anything. I mean, and that's, that's, that's the true meaning of sleeper anyway. I just think I got a little too confident in the more than 50th percentile outcome for Pithetta. And man, how many cliches can we use to describe Nick Povetta and fantasy? I mean, it's shame on, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, he is who he thought he was, is just like so many, so many different cliches for him. And, you know, Scott, one thing that you mentioned about Nick Povetta is this, I think a good point.

And one that kind of ties into a sleeper that I got wrong is when we have a pitcher that's kind of been around long enough, yeah, we probably should just default to who that pitcher has been. And Aaron Savali for me, like, I've been trying to make Aaron Savali a thing for, I don't know, as long as he's been in the league, basically, my logic coming in was, okay, ERA and WIP with the race last year weren't good, strikeout rate was awesome, K minus walk rate, huge jump. I'm like, all right, the rays are going to figure this out. They're going to work their raise devil magic. And what does it turn out? Like Aaron Savali is a guy who throws 90-91, doesn't have the best stuff, has never gotten a lot of swinging strikes. And yeah, he kind of just

resorted to being that pitcher again. So, yeah, I think a little bit similar, not the same exact thing, but, you know, again, it's, yeah, I think I just kind of fooled myself again on someone like Aaron's Folley. Chris, sleeper you got most wrong this year. All right. This might be the worst sentence I wrote last season. Colt Keith could end up being right there with Brandon Lau and Nolan Gorman as the best power hitters at the second base position. But he could also have enough pop to play up at third base, where power is easier to come by. Cold Keith hit 13 home runs as a rookie in 148 games. He had well, well, well, below average quality of contact metrics.

decent plate discipline. Like, I'm not giving up on him entirely, but it's a pretty underwhelming skill set for a guy who's already 23, and I think will be 24. I mean, at some point next season, but, you know, during the baseball season as well.

And, yeah, I just, he kind of looks like a guy. And seems like a case where he was ranked relatively high as a prospect. because there was safety and security and projectability, but not necessarily because there was upside in the skill set. And I think maybe the 27 home runs that he hit between double A and AAA and 2023 were a, we're a mirage.

I'm not saying it can't happen. I think there is some very vague post-type sleeper appeal for Colt Keith in 2025, but. He had July or was it June, one of those two months. the middle. He hit like all his home runs. Yeah. And yeah, it was a bad call. I had some other bad calls, but that specific sentence as I was going through it was like, oh, oh, what was I thinking? There's a miss in the premise even because you were comparing him favorably to Nolan. Well, yeah, Gorman was also a, if I was going to pick one of my biggest breakouts that I got wrong that I'm not picking.

Don't worry. I have him later in the rundown. Oh, I had a worse one, so that's why I didn't go with Nolan Gorman. But Nolan Gorman was a very bad one that I had on, like, so many teams, you guys. So for as bad as Colt Keith was this year, he slashed in July 322-404-644, hit seven of his 13 home runs. It looked like he was following the same trend as the Jackson's and having, okay, so he struggled as a rookie. Then he found it mid-season. but then the final two months, Colt Keith just collapsed. And the underlying numbers were never as strong with him as they were with the other guys.

So I was not, you know, I ranked Colt Keith pretty high in my top 100 prospects because that's where you're supposed to rank Colt Keith. But I wasn't so excited when I heard he was making the team because I have, because we actually have this stat cast data available for AAA now. And I looked at the exit velocities at AAA last year, 88.7 average 100. 10.1 max. It's pretty average. Pretty average for a guy going to play in Detroit.

Yeah. And I'm not sure yet how much stock to put in exit velocity readings for for young players because that's like they'll legitimately get stronger. They'll, you know, if you look at a lot of the top prospects, their exit velocities don't compare to major leaguers yet. But this was a guy at AAA already. in his early 20s and I don't know, I'm finding

that seems to be a successful sorting mechanism for prospects is just simply how hard do they hit the ball. It's not foolproof because again, they can start to hit the ball harder in the majors, but it seems to prevent a lot of fakeouts.

Let's take our final break. When we return, I have one more sleeper that I got wrong. I just want to quickly mention because I feel like the logic made sense? The player just didn't work out. We'll talk about that right after this. Welcome back in. One more sleeper that I got wrong heading into the season, Henry Davis, who had an ADP of 266.8 coming into the season, and this is a tough one because I feel like he just totally fit the post-hyped sleeper, right? Former first overall pick. He's got good numbers in the minors. He had a big spring training. He hit 310, 4 home runs, 1067 OPS. Maybe he's just not a major leaguer. 99.9.

career games. He's hit 191. He's got eight homers, a 590 OPS, a 30% strikeout rate. So this is kind of a tough one because it made sense. Again, you could have cut bait, but like in a two-catcher league, kind of hard to find a second catcher. I don't know.

What do you make of just our logic coming in? Because it made sense. I think the logic was fine. And I you just have to look behind the plate in Pittsburgh for a case of a similar one eventually kind of working out in Joey Bart who was a similar prospect was the number

two overall pick in his draft class big time prospect good minor league numbers just completely flopped at the major league level struck out way too much 27 years old kind of figures it out this year had good underlying numbers to back up the apparent breakout like I catchers take a long time The thing that's tough about catchers is they take a long time to develop relative to other prospects, and they tend to have shorter peaks than other positions. It's very much a, the meal was, the food was terrible and the portions were so small situation with catcher prospects. And that's why betting on catcher prospects, generally not a good idea. if Henry Davis shows signs of life in spring training or early next season

I'm going to put him in that two-catcher conversation just because if you show signs of life I'm going to be interested in you as the number two catcher. The Pirates catcher situation by the way, it looks pretty crowded. Yeah, no, I feel like a Henry Davis trade is like all but assured this year. I think Joey Bard is still technically on the roster. And like you said, he looked good. He has years of control left. Bart does.

And they have former top prospect, Indie Rodriguez, who's returning from elbow surgery. So I don't know. What makes Henry Davis, like, he has dominated in the minors. A former number one overall pick who's just killed it in the minors. And so. 944 career OPS. With good plate discipline, the exit velocity readings like with Colth,

Keith, a little suspect. But I was, just with that pedigree, I was willing to give Henry Davis a lot of benefit of the doubt, but he's he's just, he's gotten a long look in the majors now, and it's just been disastrous.

He might go down as an all-time first number one pick bust. All right, let's move into the breakouts. Chris, the breakout you got most right. Jurn to Rand. That was a pretty, like a high-five. Yeah, high-five. I had him in

nearly all of my leagues. I was surprised looking. I added him to 2.0, but I didn't have him in 1.0. And he was someone who his price never really exploded the way you would have thought it would.

And I think part of it was he had toe surgery in the off season. There were still some questions about playing time in Boston. But I said, I think there's a ceiling outcome here where Duran hits homers and steals 40 bases.

Didn't get the 40 bases, as you can see, because I don't have blonde hair. Oh, I forgot about that. We had the bet that I apparently made in the preseason with myself. That would have been so awesome. Come on, Duran. He basically just did what he did in 2023, except did it as a full-time player.

And what I wrote in the end of my write-up for him, I didn't include him in my potential 20-25 first-rounders column Monday, but maybe I should have. He's not going to get that high. He might be a second rounder in 2025. And this is another one where I'm much less likely to draft him this year. Frank, you and I were talking on Slack earlier today. And I mentioned that I think maybe my post,

my offseason bold prediction is that the Red Sox trade, Jaron, who is 28 years old coming off a incredible season. In a different year, might have been an MVP candidate. And I could see the Red Sox trying to capitalize on that with a roster got coming up to get a high-end starting pitcher. But, yeah, he was in retrospect, a really easy break. I think we were pretty much all of us were on Darren Duran coming into the season. And I remember the comp that we kind of threw out there.

It was like, hey, if everything works, he could be Josh Lowe. Remember what Josh Lowe did in 2023? He hit 2.92 with 20 homers, 32 steals, and an 835 OPS. What did Duran do this year? 285, 21 homers, 34 steals, 834 OPS. I mean, it is eerily similar what Duran did this year versus what Josh Lowe did the year prior. I do agree.

I think the Red Sox have some decisions to make this offseason. They have a lot of talented position players. It wouldn't surprise me if, like, hey, the Mariners call up. We need a bat. You guys need pitching to kind of make some sense there. But yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. It would surprise me. I mean, it was such a good year that he's like the Red Sox best player now.

And I just kind of feel like the fan base would revolt. You know, just a few years after they traded mooky bets if they were to do that with Duran. I don't know. I don't know that that would play well. I could be wrong. Like he was a nine win player, according to baseball reference. He was. Oh, he was seven by fan graphs, yeah.

Yep. And I'll admit, I wasn't, I wasn't on the Duran bandwagon this preseason because I thought he would struggle to get at bats consistently. And, you know, he basically had the same season percentages wise. It's just he did it over full time at bats. The same season is 2023. And actually, he wasn't really that good against lefties. No, he was bad. No, he was bad.

They left him in, which it's something. Sometimes that's all the matters. It worries me a little bit. You know, going back to what I said about Sail and Imanaga, like, yeah, you got the big win on Duran last year. Do I really want to use a second round pick on him next season? I don't know. I think I kind of just want to find, like, the next Josh Lowe or the next

Sharon Duran. Not that it'll definitely happen, but yeah, I just, I don't know if I'm going to be the one that uses a second round pick on Duran next season. Chris, nope, we just went to you, Scott. Who is the breakout? You got most right. I don't have a great one. My breakouts were the worst of the three this year.

I could say Terrick Scoobel. He was technically in the column, but nobody needs to hear me talk about him again. So I'm going to say Ryan Pepio. He was a breakout for me. He did have a good year. He didn't have a good year in the way I thought he was going to have a good year. He did regress with the control, not completely.

Because part of my case for Ryan Pepio was terrible control when he first got up, it got called up in 2022 and also in the minors. then amazing control in 2023. He kind of split the difference in 2024 with the control. It was an average control pitcher more or less. But he still got a lot of whiffs, surprisingly, with his fastball, but the change-up makes for an effective counter to it. And I think, if nothing else, just the idea,

I don't want to oversimplify it, But the idea that the rays traded Tyler Glassnow, and this was the biggest piece they got in return, the rays aren't magical. They miss sometimes, but they don't miss often when they target players like this. And it doesn't look like they missed with Ryan Pepio. So just the,

it did provide me with some reassurance when I saw the rays traded for Pepio. Okay, there must really be something here, and it's not my eyes deceiving me. And I know you like them a lot for next year, Chris. Yeah, I'm working on, He can qualify as a breakout again. Yeah, I'm working on my breakouts for next week's FBT with newsletter,

which would probably be out on Tuesday morning. And spoiler alert, he's definitely on it. He was the first name I added to the list about a month ago probably. So, yeah, that's one that the fastball was elite. I think it's reasonable to expect some regression. And there was regression as the season went on early on in the season. He had like, I think through the end of May, he had like a 40% whiff rate on his fastball,

which is just outrageous. It ended up being 32% still very, very good. I think there's room for the changeup to grow. I think there's room for the slider to get better. And I don't think he'll be as limited this upcoming season.

So yeah, I really like Ryan Pepio. The breakout I was most right about coming into the season outside of Duran. But on the pitching side, Michael King, he had a preseason ADP of 137.4. He finished 56th overall. He was SP 13 and Roto. He was SP23.

three in head to head points. And obviously had an awesome season. Over 200 tricouts, great ratios. The logic for me, he looked awesome, even though it was a small sample size as a starter with the Yankees before being traded for Juan Soto. 223, ERA 114 whip,

well over a strikeout per inning in nine starts with the Yankees down the stretch. And I really like the pitch mix. Great sweeper and change up. They both have had whiff rates over 35% in 2023. serviceable fastball sinker. So yeah, I like the pitch mix.

I like what we saw towards the end of the season. And it was a positive park shift going from Yankee Stadium to San Diego. So all those things combined, made sense in my mind for Michael King. And I was trying to think of early candidates for maybe who could be next year's Michael King. It's not perfect. You know, Spencer Schwellenbach, I think everyone's going to be excited about. Maybe like a bout in France's, but I don't have as much conviction in the pitch mix and the whiffs. I don't think the stuff is as good.

Maybe like a stuff, like maybe DJ hers. It doesn't feel great. You know, not quite the same situation, but in terms of stuff, I think there's, there's certainly some similarities there. I think we have to wait and see if there are any relievers turn starters because that's one thing we haven't talked about. This was actually a great season for relievers turned starters. Ronaldo Lopez, Gary Crochet, Michael King. AJ Puck. Michael King got a little bit of a taste last year

but I mean this was his first real full season starting in the bigs and it was tremendous so I will be interested to see which relievers turn starters we have in 20 years I think there might be something there like this is something that you know Danny Duffy was probably like the first example I can remember that the guy took a big step forward in terms of his stuff in the bullpen got transitioned of starter and it stuck

and that was something that for a long time I think we didn't really think a lot of guys could do and now in this new throw five innings and you're done and throw max effort all the time it sure seems like a lot more guys can do that and I'm open to the possibility Jeffrey Springs right would be another Jeffrey Spring

is another one to Rasmussen as well yeah the rays have done that quite a few times and so I I'm certainly more open to it you need the arsenal for it, right? Like, you can't, like, Robert Suarez, I don't think is making a transition to the rotation throwing 90% fastballs, right?

But I think it's something to be certainly more open to. I want to, because Michael King, I actually had a bust, and he was going to be my choice for biggest miss among bust picks, except I saw you had him here for breakouts as a successful one, Frank. when I think through my logic for calling him a bust, it still makes sense to me. You know, it was based on an eight-start sample for a- Not even like eight full starts.

Right. A lot of them were very short. The swinging strike rate was bad in those eight starts, even though the overall results were good. And he had spent several years in relief and struggled to stay healthy in that role. So it just seemed like there were a lot of ways this could go wrong for King. I didn't imagine it could go this right.

I would not have particularly the workload he took on. I would have not imagined that would happen even if everything else went right. And so I don't know that I want to take anything from it. Like I, I, there was certainly an argument for things going well for King, but it was already factored into his price. When I saw that he wasn't really discounted in any way, way on draft day, that's when I was like, okay, I got to call this guy a bust. I kind of had the opposite reaction where I expected him to be drafted higher than he was.

And so when I saw that it was like only a 12th round pick, I ended up like backing off. I took him off my break at my bus 2.0 because I was like, I don't, I'm, I'm not a big fan. I think there are more ways it can go wrong than it can go right. And look, maybe he just found the one path where it went right. You know? but the price seemed reasonable and reasonable enough that I did end up backing off of him as a bust. According to Fantasy Pros, he was the 38th starting pitcher drafted on average. He was drafted ahead of Justin Verlander, who I know we don't like now, but it's Justin Verlander.

Bailey Ober, Mitch Keller, who I liked a lot, you Darvish. He was getting drafted ahead of some big names, Michael King. He was cheaper in NFC drafts. he was like 150th overall. I don't know what the, where that, because it was 55th among pitchers, but I don't know how many calls.

Yeah, I mean, that's a lot cheaper. Yeah. So that was when I saw that. If you're playing an NFC drafts, but I assume most people aren't. I did end up drafting him in a few spots.

So he was cheap enough, I guess. Let's get into the breakout that we got most wrong. We do have to move kind of quickly here. have like 10 minutes left to get through the rest of the picks. But Scott, who was the breakout you got most wrong? Jake Berger, sort of like the sleeper I got most wrong, Nick Povetta. It was a guy who was pretty far along in his career.

Didn't have a lot of major league at bats, but was on the older side from all the time. He spent the minors. And I looked at a half season where he dramatically improved his strikeout rate. And I just assumed that's how it would go for Jake Berger from now on. he could strike out closer to 20% of the time than 30% of the time. And his strikeout rate this year ended up being 26%. So he kind of split the difference. And he ended up having overall a season very similar to 2023.

It's just I expected the Marlins numbers from 2023 to be within reach for Berger. So it was it was once again looking at a smaller sample. trying to extend it over a bigger sample, but in the bigger sample, everything just kind of normalized. And that should be the expectation more often than not. Yeah, it is,

it is human nature to think that doing something in the second half of the season matters more. It doesn't really. Like sometimes it does. Sometimes it represents a real skill change, but like historically, you are no better off betting on a second half breakout than a first half breakout that was followed by a disappointment, which is not what we

think should be the case. Because time moves in one direction and we think that progress happens. But like, I was with you. Like I thought the improvements Jake Burger made were worth betting on to a certain extent. But it is there are always going to be outliers and there are always going to be exceptions. But my pick is another guy, very similar, showed huge skills improvements in the second half, but just it didn't end up meaning anything. And that was, Gubrienne Hayes, who I know Scott and I both really liked

coming off of his big breakout in the second half of the 2020-3 season. That was another one that was based on skill changes where he talked about, I think he worked with an outside hitting coach when he heard his back and went to AAA and worked on elevating the ball and getting ahead of the ball a little more and came out and was hitting the ball in the air,

hitting the ball to the pool side more than he ever had been. Brian Hayes always someone who had the physical tools, always hit the ball hard, always had very good play discipline. Nothing went right for him this year. I don't know if he was ever healthy. I know he dealt with back issues again this season. That's two years in a row now. He just was a complete outright disaster. And honestly, the best thing I can say is at least he got hurt relatively early and I gave up. Hayes is even a stronger case. There was even a stronger breakout case for Hayes than Berger because you referred to what we knew about his process, his process changing.

So it wasn't just skill change. It was the process changing behind the skill, which leads me to wonder about Sean Mania. Are we going to make the same mistake with Sean Mania? Will it be a mistake? Because he changed his whole delivery and has been a much bigger bat misser as a result. But it's been only half a season. he's got a long track record of being pretty mediocre. I think it's going to come down to cost.

And that's what it comes down to with all of these things. If the cost is low enough, you can see the glass half full. That's fine. But the cost tends to get elevated when everybody's seeing the glass half full. And you just got to know when to back off. You know, when the price gets too high that you're the little, the little case you can make for this guy just isn't worth it anymore.

As the man said, you gotta know when to hold him. You gotta know when to fold him. That's right. I completely understand the logic for Sean Minai. I mean, that is a huge change. Like, changing your delivery and throwing from a lower arm slot and trying to be Chris Sale.

And, you know, when I was watching him, pitched the other hand, I was like... He looks like Chris Sale. It does look like Chris Sale, the way he's starting right now. But isn't this also kind of similar to what we just said about Nick Pavetta, right like we have a whole career of Sean Manaya where he's just well there have been these flashes there's a process change for

minaya that's the distinction isn't this what you would have said about pavetta had a sweeper yeah pavetta last year too though because pavetta added the sweeper in like July right I'm skeptical of mania but I think it'll come down like if he ends up 130th in ADP I'm not going to draft Sean minaya but Nick Povetta's ADP was like 175 yeah and he didn't even live up to that so Povetta was a fine spark pick. That was the only time I drafted him.

And I don't think Mania will be a spark, right? No, he's not. But if he's in the 175 range, I think that's fine. I don't know. I mean, it just, it feels a lot like what we just said about Nick Povetta, but, uh, I, yeah. These things do change. You know, we could have ignored Josh Donaldson when he had that great second half for the A's, even though he wasn't much of a prospect.

And then the next year he's winning input. VP, I don't know that it was the very next year, but he became a stud right after that. Like, changes in stance and approach, they can carry over from one season to a next and completely transform a player. It's just, it's more likely that it won't. It's more likely he'll become what he's always been. So you just need to weigh the cost benefit there better than I did with some of these players this year. Break out that I got most wrong. I wanted to mention Bobby Miller, just a disaster season, derailed by a shoulder injury. He suffered an 8. So I just feel like he was never right this year.

In hindsight, I think that ADP around 75, that was pretty prohibitive. It didn't really leave much room for profit. Like he probably had to hit his 80th percentile outcome or better to return investment at that price. So yeah, just thinking back now on that process, it doesn't feel great to look back and think about Bobby Miller in that way. Yeah, obviously was never right this season. We all missed on Bobby Miller. Yeah, wanted to mention Nolan Gorman, who is, you know, someone Chris and I were pretty excited about.

The ADPU is 167.2. He finished outside of the top 400 players this year. He got demoted to the minors. We'll always have that. He might not have been a top 150 player in AAA fantasy. We'll always have that hot stretch in May. I actually think, Scott, one of the famous moments of the season you called, you were like, yeah, he's probably going to go on a heater.

and then Nolan Gorman went on a heater and that was pretty much the end of his season after that. The logic for me is that he broke out in 2023. You know, he had 27 home runs. He had an 805 OPS. He did that as a 23-year-old. So my-held his own against lefties? Yeah, that was a big part of the thought process there.

I just thought he would take another step forward. He had great exit velocities. He had great barrel rate. But I think this was always in his range of outcomes because the plate discipline is so bad for Nolan, Gorman. I mean, he swings and misses a ton. 15.9% swinging, this was in 2023. Nearly a 16% swinging strike rate. His own contact was 77.5%. So I think maybe I just kind of glossed over those numbers a little bit. And they got worse. They got worse here in, in 2024. His quality of contact

took a step back. I think it's just a reminder that when players have this bad of plate discipline, this is in their range of outcomes. So we just got to keep that in mind. All good? Yep. Yep. All right. So let's just wrap things up here.

We'll quickly run through. Give me both at the same time, Chris. The bust you got most right and the bust you got most wrong and some of your logic there. We really don't need to relitigate the one we got most wrong because it's you and I share it. It's Ellie de la Cruz. I mean, gosh. Yeah. I mean, look, the second half again slowed down.

I was looking at the numbers. He only stole 16 bases in the second half. Strugout rate was over 32%. There remain more red flags in the profile than you want for your top five pick, but we got it wrong. There's no question about it. We got it very wrong, yes. ADP was 27.4. He finished as the seventh overall player in fantasy.

The one I got right was Josh Lowe, who partially I was out on him even before the injury, but then he got that hip injury a couple days before the season. the big thing for me that I kept coming back to was the race played two two playoff games at the end of 2023 and Josh Lowe sat one of them there are not a lot of top 100 fantasy picks who are supposed to be everyday players who are sitting out must win games

that is a big red flag from an organization that we think is smart And even after he came back from the injury, he played, he started 96 of 127 games, I think. So not at all a full-time player, still hasn't shown the ability to hit lefties, really. I will be interested in some Josh Lowe post-type sleeper appeal this year. If he's like, I could see him like being like 250th and 80p. And if that's the case, like, look, there's still power, there's still speed. but yeah, I got that.

My skepticism worked out until his price dropped because of the injury and I started drafting him like a dummy. Chris, who is 2025 Jaron Duran? It's Josh Lowe. I almost said it. Yeah, it swapped spots now. Scott, over to you, the bust you got most right and the bust you got most wrong. The one I got most right is Paul Goldschmidt.

It wasn't just that he was old. It's that it wasn't just that he was bad in the second half the year before. It's that the strikeouts went up in the second half. And most especially, the telltale sign was that his production on four-seem fastballs went way down, swung and missed at them a lot more. The bat just wasn't able to catch up to them anymore. And I think that's the clear sign of one of the clearest signs of decline for a hitter. And Paul Goldschmidt, yeah, he wasn't nearly as good in 2024. as he had been.

So that's the one I got most right. The one I got most wrong is Bryce Miller, who you look at what he did in his rookie season, 115 ERA through five starts, and then a 531 ERA and 20 starts thereafter. It just seemed like he was two one-dimensional with that fastball, the league caught up to it, and he had to develop a whole secondary arsenal

if he was going to make good, Bryce Miller. And that's kind of what he did. You know, there were rumblings of him developing a splitter prior to the season, but I was like, is that enough? Is it really as far along as it needs to be? It turns out, though, he had a splitter, a sinker, a sweeper, a slider, a curveball, even a cutter on occasion.

He developed like two secondary arsenals. Right. He kind of, Bryce Miller kind of made up for not having a killer secondary pitch with just kind of having a whole bag of secondary pitches, which is a strategy we're seeing pitchers employ. more and more, just a bunch of secondary offerings that they use a very small amount, but there's enough of them that it creates deception. And I think Bryce Miller was able to make it work that way.

He ended up throwing his fastball 42% of the time compared to 58% of the time the year before. And obviously that was good enough for him to put together a 294 ERA. The bust that I got most right, I actually have two. two names here. I think similar logic for both of them. It was Royce Lewis and Luis Robert. And I just didn't want to pay a premium for players. I didn't trust could stay healthy. And for Royce Lewis, the ADP was inside of the top 60. Obviously showed a ton of flashes the year prior, had the big postseason, some dramatic home runs. And I still think, I'm not entirely sure. I think he's a really talented player and then has a lot of power.

But he has not shown an ability to stay healthy. And he's, Royce Lewis has dealt with a lot of injuries to his lower half. And I wonder if they could just somehow be related to the fact that he tore the ACL on his right knee twice. So are these compensatory injuries? He had a strained right quad this year. He had a strained right adductor.

Again, it was his right knee that he's injured twice. So I do worry about that. I will be interested to see how big the discount is for Royce Lewis heading into next season. And Luis Robert, similar thing. I mean, he was tremendous in 2023. There's no doubt he had 38 home runs, 20 steals. Even with kind of everything going right,

170 combined runs plus RBI. So, you know, he managed to say healthy, but he was also on a terrible team coming into the season. You know, he's only played more than 100 games once so far in his career. I kind of hope that Luis Robert has traded this all. season the same way we hope that Garrett Crochet is traded. But yeah, I think for both guys, we'll have to get a pretty sizable discount, at least for me to be back in on like Royce Lewis, maybe outside the top 100, top 120 picks, Luis Robert outside of the top 60?

Top 75? I don't know. I will just say I have Luis Robert ranked way too high. Like I need, I'm going to need to move him down because he's my number 14 outfielder. I just, I believe so strongly in the skill set. I believe so strongly that whatever went wrong for him this year wasn't really reflective of his talent level. And again, that is too high. Like just it's going to be one of those situations where I have to move him down just because he's going to be sitting at the top of my queue for three rounds if I leave him.

But we're, I'm not drafting right now. So I'm comfortable making the declaration that I still really believe in. Luis Robert and still really believe that he is going to be one of the preeminent power speed guys in baseball in 2025. Last thing I will add on Ellie Dela Cruz, I'm just going to plant this little seed of doubt. And I am ready to be wrong, I think, two years in a row. You mentioned it, Chris. There are still some pretty scary signs underneath the hood for Ellie Dela Cruz, man. 31% strikeout rate

Zone contact is not good swinging strike rate 13.8% higher than his rookie season. The ground balls did get better, for sure. I don't know if he can hit lefties. 224 with a 661 OPS this year. He is incredibly fast. He is incredibly athletic.

He is one of the most fun players to watch in baseball. All of those things are right about Ellie de la Cruz. I think he's probably a lock for like at least 50 steals again next season. But I don't know, man. I still have doubts about the underlying skills. You know what might be the scariest thing about the strikeout rate for him?

He's actually got good plate discipline. Like, or at least not bad. Like, his chase rate is 60th percentile. Like, he doesn't actually... His swing decisions aren't terrible. Yeah, his swing decisions are bad. He's just got massive, massive holes. 76% zone contact rate actually went down

from his rookie season. Like I mentioned, he started running a little less as the season went on. I don't know if there was a ton there, but yeah, he's not going to be a bust. He's going to be a first round pick. I don't know if I want to be the person who pays top five pick for him. That's what I've seen with early drafts and very few drafts, very early. I don't know that we need to take any of the results seriously,

but it does seem like there is somebody. If there's going to be somebody in every league who is just so, fascinated by that big stolen base number or maybe the upside in general, that if that person is picking top five, they're just going to take Ellie De La Cruz, when for me he's no better than, he's going to be a back end first round guy for me. All right, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts. Thank you.