Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨MLB Trade Deadline Recap! Justin Verlander Back to the Astros! (8/1 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Justin Verlander is headed back to the Houston Astros (0:25)! ... Does Michael Lorenzen lose value with the Phillies (7:33)? ... Can Jack Flaherty get back on the track with the Orioles (9:45)? ... Th...e Marlins traded for hitters (15:07)! Does Jake Burger lose value? ... The Marlins also acquired Josh Bell (23:47). ... With Scott Barlow traded to the Padres, Carlos Hernandez should step up as the Royals closer (31:10). ... Let's recap the rest of the smaller trades (35:10). ... We wrap up with the biggest winners and losers from the MLB Trade Deadline (45:56). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. The MLB trade deadline is over, and it was pretty crazy. Justin Verlander is back with the Houston Astros. Michael Lorenzen went to the Phillies and the Marlins traded for hitters. Welcome in to a special edition of Fantasy Baseball today. I am Frank Stamphel, and the whole gang is here. Join by Scott White and Chris Towers. Let's get right into it.
Starting point is 00:00:25 Lots of trades to discuss the biggest of the day. The Astros acquired Justin Verlander. He is back one year after winning the... AL-Sy Young Award. Now, 40 years old, we've talked about him a lot recently. The overall numbers this year, a bit of a letdown, I think, based on what we were expecting. But over the last seven starts, he's been much better, a 149, ERA, a 106 whip, 37 strikeouts over 42 and a third innings during that time. I guess there's a chance he could win more games here with the Astros lineup completely healthy. Obviously there's familiarity there. Scott, what do you think about
Starting point is 00:01:01 Verlander headed back to the Astros? Do you think he sees a big jump in value here? No, I don't think he sees a big jump in value unless they're able to help him recapture some of the stuff he's lost from his 2022 Cy Young winning season. But I'm not counting on that. I mean, 40 years old is 40 years old. And they can't reverse the clock on that,
Starting point is 00:01:25 even during this stretch where he's maintained a low ERA, as you pointed out, less than a strike upper inning. He's not the same. guys last year. He's still a good enough pitcher. He's still somebody who could help the Astros give back to the World Series potentially. And yeah, I think his odds of winning games at a at a good clip improves with this trade. But I don't think it's, I don't think it's going to be magic
Starting point is 00:01:53 for Justin Verlander. I think he's clearly a pitcher on the decline. And yeah, now he'll just, now he'll just be declining with a different uniform on. Fair enough. The Astros, you know, it sounds like Jose Ricini could be back as soon as this week. I don't think they're going to go with a six-man rotation. Chris, do you think Jose Riccii is on the outside looking in? He just goes to the bullpen or like does JP France kind of lose his job? What do you think happens here with the Astros rotation?
Starting point is 00:02:21 Yeah, like maybe they have some flexibility to give Hunter Brown an extra start off. You know, since he's pushing up on his career high in innings. Has he passed it yet? No. He's actually, he was among the 15 pitchers I featured in that article a couple weeks ago who could have innings concerns moving forward. But he was in the lower risk category. He's actually doing pretty well with innings.
Starting point is 00:02:45 He was at 126 last year, so he's about 15 short of that. Doesn't mean they won't want to pull back on Hunter Brown, especially since he's had some struggles of late. Or maybe they just go with a six-man rotation for a while. Or maybe they pull back on Christian Javier. I think that's less likely after the way he bounced back in his last star. But the point is they might want to build in rest for a few of their guys. Who would you guys rather have between Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander rest of season?
Starting point is 00:03:14 Because if you play in AL only, both of those players are going to become available. I don't know if you have the luxury to choose, but let's just say that you did. Who would you guys prefer? For what it's worth, Scherzer already went through in my AL-only league last night. Maybe your waiver wire set up a little differently, so they will both go through it once. But you kind of already had to make that decision in a lot of leagues, I would say. I would prefer Scherzer because he's still getting strikeouts at a big rate. Chris?
Starting point is 00:03:43 I have Verlander one spot higher. I don't feel super confident about that. The weird thing about Verlander this season has been that on a per pitch basis, the whiff rates are pretty similar to last season. and so it's not quite clear why there's been this massive 30% drop in the strikeout rate for him. So I have held out hope that he would figure something out.
Starting point is 00:04:06 He's still doing a really good job of limiting hard contact. So I guess I can see a clearer path to Justin Verlander taking off than for Scherzer who is still getting strikeouts but the quality of contact has taken a step back. So I think that's the way I look at it.
Starting point is 00:04:25 But, you know, I also wonder if there's just something about the Astros that they can unlock with Verlander, which is an ineffable or slightly less than effable maybe a bit of analysis. But yeah, I feel a little more confident in Furlander. I think there's a chance to. I would take Scherzer just because the overall swinging strike rate and the whiffs have been better this year. But I do think there's a chance that the Astros can maybe get a little bit more out of Verlander compared to what we see. seen here with the New York Metz. I'm just trying to figure out what effable means because that sounds fraught.
Starting point is 00:05:02 Like, you know, like, like, you know, how some things are effable and some things aren't. Sorry, I've been watching the Amazon Prime series Good Omens and they use the word effable and ineffable a lot. I think it's like non-quantifiable, I think is the way I would say. Okay. Fair enough. Speaking of those Mets, crazy year, man. Biggest payroll in baseball history.
Starting point is 00:05:30 And here we are, the trade deadline. We didn't know if it would actually happen. They traded away Scherzer. They traded away Verlander. Tommy Fam, Mark Kanna. We'll talk about FAM a little bit later on. What did they receive in return to outfield prospects from the Astros? In fact, their top prospect in Drew Gilbert,
Starting point is 00:05:45 who was a first round pick last year, 22 years old, hitting 274 with 12 homers and 10 steals in the minors this season. and another outfield prospect, Ryan Clifford, who's 20 years old, actually crushing it this year in the miners. And I did see some takes on the Twitter X that some people think Ryan Clifford might have a higher ceiling than even Drew Gilbert.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Scott, what do you think about the return here for Justin Verlander? Yeah, I thought it was pretty good. Did you see how much money was being sent with him? I was curious to find that out. I think it's like $35 million for this year. next year and then half of his 2025 salary if his option vests. Okay.
Starting point is 00:06:29 It's a significant. I think it could end up being like $55 million. I mean, to get a caliber of prospect or I guess two pretty good prospects like this, the Mets probably had to do that. Drew Gilbert by most by most rank list is considered the Astros best prospect. He was their first round pick last year. He was tremendous at high A this year, moved up to AA. and the numbers have slowed down quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:06:56 But he kind of reminds me of Shane Victorino, a 5-foot-9 guy, just really high energy. The steel total is a little underwhelming, but he runs fast and has pretty good pop for a short guy and I think could be a starting outfielder for the Mets as soon as next year. I would say among all the prospects that were traded here at the deadline,
Starting point is 00:07:22 and in the days leading up to the deadline, I would rank Drew Gilbert behind only Kyle Monsardo, who we talked about yesterday. All right, let's slide over to the Phillies who acquired Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers for infield prospect, How You Lee, and Lorenzen having a great season,
Starting point is 00:07:41 31 years old, 358 ERA, 1.1 whip on the year, though we are expecting a little bit of regression to hit at some point. This is a pretty big negative park shift going from Comerica to Philadelphia in Citizens Bank Park. And I did see a Phillies beatwriter point out that Lorenzen is kind of up against his innings that he threw last year. And there's a chance he could be used as a reliever down the stretch.
Starting point is 00:08:07 Chris, your thoughts on Lorenzen being shipped to Philly? I have not been a believer in Lorenzen all along. I expect significant regression moving forward. I think the park shift won't help in that regard. and I think there's a decent chance we're talking about Lorenzen in a month and people are just dropping him across the board. So I, if there's a cell window,
Starting point is 00:08:32 this would be it for me. Michael Lorenzen, again, over to the Phillies. And just trying to figure out what happens here with the rest of the rotation, Scott. Right. Who gets the boot? Is it Christopher Sanchez? Is it Ranger Suarez?
Starting point is 00:08:46 It's got to be, unless they're planning to go six-man for a while or unless, as you suggested, maybe Lorenzen's going to shift to the bullpen. Maybe play a little outfield? I feel like if they wanted to use the prospect they used to get Lorenzen to acquire reliever, they could acquire a reliever who is better than Lorenzen. It may not be as simple as that. Like, they may want to have him available to start.
Starting point is 00:09:13 I don't know. We don't know. Like, I would still assume Lorenzen is going to start. at least for now. And that is bad news for Christopher Sanchez, who had become kind of interesting as a fantasy asset just through five no-hitting inings against the Pirates in his latest outing.
Starting point is 00:09:32 So that's disappointing. And given that we all, I think, see regression coming for Lorenzen, I'm not so sure they want to just prefer to have Sanchez in that fifth spell for the remainder of the season. Another starting pitcher trade, Jack Flerty, was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Cesar Preeto and left-handed pitcher Drew Rom. Rough season here for Jack Flaherty, struggling big time with control, a 443 ERA 155 whip on the year. Still gets a decent amount of strikeouts just under a strikeout per inning for him, but 4.4
Starting point is 00:10:08 walks per nine. The underlying numbers don't really like Jack Flaherty either. And look, by all accounts, this is obviously a big upgrade in terms of just team context. The Cardinals lineup actually has been pretty good this year, but it's a better ballpark out there. Pitching in Camden Yards now. Scott, we'll start with you. Your thoughts on Jack Flaherty to the Orioles. Is there a chance that a change of scenery can perhaps get Jack Flaherty back on track? Look, there's always a chance.
Starting point is 00:10:35 I think it's difficult to predict that happening for a pitcher. It's easier to say in retrospect, oh, going to this team really fixed them. because usually, usually they are who we thought they were, even when they do change hands like this. And it's been bad. It's been bad for Jack Flaherty. You know, obviously he had the amazing season in 2019, fourth and in Elsa Young voting,
Starting point is 00:11:02 and then had pitched so little in the three years that followed, mostly because of injuries. It was hard to know what to make of him exactly. He's been mostly healthy this year, and it's still gone. It's just been, like I said, it's been bad with few reasons for optimism along the way. I came in, I hopped in here before he started recording
Starting point is 00:11:23 and you guys were talking about whether or not Camden Yards is an upgrade for him. I just, I kind of think he's beyond that at this point. He walks too many guys, he doesn't miss enough bats, and if he doesn't solve both of those problems, I don't think it's going to matter so much where Jack Flaherty's pitching. I will say, I've just,
Starting point is 00:11:41 a few times that I feel like the I have like you know like face blindness you know like when people like just can't tell people's face I have that but for Orioles starting pitchers like they're just all the same guy to me. Grayson Rodriguez
Starting point is 00:11:57 obviously not but like everyone else is like 8.5K per 9 3 walks per 9 really good results at home if he results on the road at times Tyler Wells walk rate is a lot better than 3 per 9 but I But they're all 2.6, 2.6.
Starting point is 00:12:14 Kyle Braddish is the lowest at 2.3. Kyle Gibson is 2.8. 3-ish. Jack Flaherty is not that. His walk rate is much higher than that. I do think this is a significant park upgrade, though. I think the extent to which Camden Yards has become a pitcher's park is not quite appreciated yet. It's an incredibly tough place to hit, especially for right-handed hitters.
Starting point is 00:12:39 And I think. I'm not expecting Jack Flaherty to be good moving forward. I'm not even sure he's going to be useful for fantasy, but like I don't think Kyle Braddish and Kyle Gibson and even Tyler Wells, like I don't really think any of those guys are particularly good. And yet they've all had extended stretches where they've been very useful for fantasy. I can see Jack Flaherty being very useful at Camden Yards. I think on the road there's probably going to be some blowups,
Starting point is 00:13:07 but I really, I do think there's a. chance Jack Flaherty is at least a viable, useful streamer moving forward. Chris, would you rather have Jack Flaherty with the Orioles or Michael Lorenzen with the Phillies? I would, I don't really want either. You have to take one. If you're going to make me take one, I'll probably take Lorenzen, but we might find out in two hours or whenever Rob Thompson speaks to the media that they're going to use him as a swing man, in which case it would obviously be Flaherty.
Starting point is 00:13:38 All right. Well, Scott, do you have any takes here on the prospect? I don't think they're big standing here, the ones that the Cardinals received for Jack Flarity, but Cesar Prito, a 24-year-old infield prospect, and Drew Rom, a 23-year-old left-handed pitching prospect. Does have some strikeout upside, but has struggling with the ERA and the whip this year.
Starting point is 00:13:57 Any thoughts on those two? Prito has had my attention this year. I featured him in the Prospects Report once. He is, I had his page pulled up, but now I closed it. Okay, he's batting between double and AAA, 349 this year, very low strikeout rate, a guy who has a lot of experience from Cuba
Starting point is 00:14:19 and was a great source of batting average there. It's a Luis Arayes profile, I would say, which obviously there's a sample of one in terms of Luis Ara's caliber players in the major. So is that profile one you really want to assign to a minor leaguer? Like, is that going to be? Is that going to lead to a successful outcome at the major league level? Probably not.
Starting point is 00:14:46 But I'm sure later this week I'll be writing about the best prospects moved at the deadline, and I'm sure Preeto will show up on that list. All right, let's take our first break. And when we return, we'll get Chris's thoughts on all of the Marlins. Hitters that they acquired will do that right after this. Welcome back. And let's talk about the Miami Marlins, who were busy acquire. wiring some hitters here on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:15:12 And first up, they traded for Jake Berger in exchange for pitching prospect, Jake Eater. And Eater and Burger. That's pretty good. Just thought about that now. Jake Berger will get the chance to, you know, for the most part, he's been playing every day for the White Sox.
Starting point is 00:15:27 But now there are no questions. He's going to play every day for the Marlins. They are desperate for power. And that's exactly what he provides. 25 home runs this season, 52 RBI. That also comes with a 214 batting average and a 32% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:15:41 Chris, I think most people will look at this and they'll say, you know, it's a pretty big downgrade in terms of park. I don't think the park really matters for Jake Berger. I think it's just a good thing he's going to get the opportunity to play every day. I struggle with that because, like, yeah, when you hit a 200 or a 430 foot home run,
Starting point is 00:16:01 it doesn't really matter if it was a short park, a short fence or a long fence. But like, there are still 300, 170 foot home runs to be had. It's a downgrade in park. It's probably pretty neutral in terms of overall environment. But yeah, on the whole, I think it locks in playing time. He's probably going to play third base moving forward, I would guess,
Starting point is 00:16:23 with Gene Seguer getting traded. I'm not a full believer in Jake Berger, but the underlying numbers are actually even better than the surface level numbers, the 214 batting average is a 252 expect. batting average. The quality of contact is obviously very, very good. Play discipline is very, very bad.
Starting point is 00:16:45 As a Marlins fan, I am sort of guarding against this kind of player just completely flaming out the way Jorge Soler did the first two years of his contract. But, hey, we've seen Jorge Solera bounce back this season.
Starting point is 00:17:00 So maybe Jake Berger can hit 235 with eight home runs the rest of the way and give them a little boost. I look anybody who strikes out as often as Berger does you know over 30% of the time is of course at risk of flaming out that's that's kind of just part of the deal. It's an inherently volatile profile. It's an inherently volatile profile but I don't want to understate the extent of the power potential here for Jake Berger. Only he's one of only 11 players with 25 or more home runs currently and the other 10 all have at least 42 more plate appearances than him. So he's been among the players with 25 or more homerance,
Starting point is 00:17:41 he has been the most efficient home run hitter so far. Only two players in all of baseball have hit a ball harder than him this year, Matt Olson and John Carlos Stanton. So like he is very, very, very top shelf power hitter here, as the home run output shows and of course the exit velocity. Whether you want to, by either measure, He is a top shelf power hitter, and that is the way you overcome a strikeout rate like that.
Starting point is 00:18:08 As you pointed out, um, the expected stats are even better than the actual ones. Expect a batting average is 252. I'm surprised it's that high. Actual batting average is 2.14. A big part of it is like a lot of his profile looks a lot like Patrick Wisdom. To name one example of a guy who hits the ball really hard and strikes out a lot,
Starting point is 00:18:27 the difference is, uh, Jake Berger isn't like a fly ball hitter. his line drive rate is 23% his fly ball rate is 26%. So like there is room for the batting average to improve because of that skill set.
Starting point is 00:18:42 Yeah. So I mean that's that's a good thing. And I think part of the reason I'm encouraged that or I'm hopeful I guess that he won't take a step back is because well he's already padding 214. He already has a 279 on base percentage. If all you're expecting from Burger is who he's been so far,
Starting point is 00:19:04 then there's a chance you're going to be pleasantly surprised going for it. I think there's a better chance of that than that the rug's going to be pulled out from under him and he's going to become useless. He had been playing every day recently anyway once the White Sox opened the door to him getting time at
Starting point is 00:19:19 second base. So we'd already gotten kind of used to him in an everyday role, but certainly that continues now that he's joining the Marlins, who may be the lineup that needs him, more than any other team. He's kind of, I feel like Jake Berger is kind of the yin to Louisa Rize as Yang. Like they are the most extreme versions of polar opposite hitters.
Starting point is 00:19:43 And now the Marlins have them both. Yeah. I've heard, you know, in the past, if you played in auction leagues, right, people saying, well, you can get a Luis Arise and pair him with Joey Gallo, right? And together, they're one really good player. And I guess now the Marlins kind of Marlon's just adopting that strategy. Yeah, pretty much. Jake Berger, just to further point out his power this season, 313 ISO ranks third among all hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this season. And if you look at his exit velocity on fly balls and line drives in particular, 97.4 miles per hour, that's 10th best in all of baseball. One thing I will point out on the negative for him, and this is something that was pointed out to us recently.
Starting point is 00:20:28 I think by YouTube comment or Twitter. His home road splits have been much better at home so far in his career. A 271 batting average 957 OPS at home in Chicago on the road. 185 batting average 607 OPS. Well, now Miami's home. Yeah, that's fair. So let's hope that he just continues to mash in his home ballpark, which is now in Miami.
Starting point is 00:20:55 The return here, pretty interesting. Jake Eater, 24-year-old, left-handed pitching prospect. He was outstanding last season. Was it last season or did he have surgery? 2021. He was outstanding in AA, and then he's taking a step back this year. Might turn out to be a good by-low here for the Chicago White Sox. Scott, I know you were talking extensively about him before we started.
Starting point is 00:21:18 Any thoughts on Jake Eater? Yeah, I got him in the Scott White Dynasty League. I drafted him the year he was out with Tommy John's surgery because I feel like prospect evaluators tend to just bury pitching prospects who have Tommy John's surgery, even though it's a pretty reliable procedure. It becomes less reliable when you're a less proven pitcher. But to put into context just how,
Starting point is 00:21:41 I forget what word you use, Frank, but he was how good he was at AA two years ago, Jake Eater had a 170RA.98 whip 12.5K per 9. He was soaring up prospect lists, and then he had the Tommy John. hasn't been you know if you look at the number since he came back this year
Starting point is 00:22:00 you're not going to be impressed by him but his last two starts 18 strikeouts in 10 and 2 thirds innings he seems to be trending the right way and the white socks have chosen now to buy into him I think this was the most interesting
Starting point is 00:22:13 trade of the day frankly Berger's such an interesting player and like I said he goes to the lineup that needs him the most and the Marlins a team that normally tries to, an organization that normally tries to accumulate prospects, was willing to give up an actual quality prospect in Jake Eater
Starting point is 00:22:33 for Jake Berger. So I guess I'll go back to this for him as well. If I'm ranking all the prospects who were moved at the deadline or in the days leading up to the deadline, Eater would probably come in third for me. I don't think I'm forgetting anybody. Manzardo, Drew Gilbert, and then Jake Eater.
Starting point is 00:22:56 Luis Anhele Ocuna, would you put him ahead of Jake Eater? Yeah, I put it. I put Acuna ahead of him. It's a close call between Acuna and Gilbert, actually. I'm going to have to look closer at that before I actually write that column. But yeah, I would have both ahead of Eater. So fair point. I do have some disappointing news on the Jake Eater Jake Burger trade front. Uh-oh.
Starting point is 00:23:19 Okay. I found another Jake for Jake trade, unfortunately. I was hoping this would be the first time that two Jakes were traded for one another, but Jake Deekman was traded along with Cole Hamels for a package that included
Starting point is 00:23:35 among other players, Jake Thompson. So, no major league history here. Maybe the first Jake for Jake straight up trade, though. So Jake Challenge trade. Let's stick with the Marlins. They also acquired Josh Bell from the Guardians in exchange for Gene Seguera and shorts out prospect, Khalil Watson, looks like Berger will play third base for the Marlins and
Starting point is 00:23:56 Josh Bell will be at first. It's been a down year for Josh Bell batting 233 with 11 home runs, 48 RBI and a 701 OPS. Still does hit the ball hard and his expected numbers are still pretty good. It seems like he's been pretty unlucky so far this year, but obviously now does go to a pretty tough park to hit their Lone Depot out in Miami. Chris, your thoughts on the Marlins acquiring Josh Bell. Who would you rather have Josh Bell or Jake Berger moving forward? I think I'd rather have Jake Burger than Josh Bell. But Josh Bell, like you mentioned, the underlying stats very, very good for Jake, for Josh Bell. Not quite as good as they were at the 2021 through 2019 peak, but expected Wobah is 353 compared to an actual 308 Wobah. He's a guy
Starting point is 00:24:44 who's underperformed his expected stats throughout his career, but generally not by this much of an extreme. So I do think there's room for Josh Bell to have a big second or last couple of months, I suppose. I don't think it's necessarily like, oh, new ballpark and, you know, better lineup. It is a slightly better lineup, but it would be hard to be worse than the Guardians lineup. But like, I just think if there's natural regression, Josh Bell's probably going to be quite a bit better than he has been so far. And, you know, maybe it's just a case where a change of scenery. helps him get it done. I don't feel particularly strongly about that,
Starting point is 00:25:24 but I have faith that he will be better moving forward. Gene Seguerra, by the way, was released by the Cleveland Guardian, so we'll see if he could potentially latch on with another team as a bench bat or utility hitter, something like that. I have a hard time believing the Guardians are trying to win the HAL Central.
Starting point is 00:25:41 Yeah, it's kind of curious moves that they've made, but, you know, I mean, maybe in 2024 they're trying to win it. One thing that is interesting about this deal is that if Kyle Manzardo gets healthy, they kind of cleared the runway here because they got rid of Josh Bell, something they probably would have had to do
Starting point is 00:25:57 in the off season anyway if they wanted Manzardo to play for them next season. I don't know if we'll see Manzardo this year, but if they wanted to be aggressive, I guess there's a chance, Scott. Yeah, probably not. I'm kind of thinking through this for the first time, so forgive my stilted delivery,
Starting point is 00:26:17 which is pretty much the norm anyway. Yeah, I think it definitely improves Monsardo's chances of making the opening day roster next year. And given the new draft pick incentives for players who are on the Major League roster for their entire rookie season, then maybe they will want to let Monsardo get his feet wet late this year so that it improves his chances of having a high rookie of the year finish next year. It's a little bit of 4D chess, but it's probably, possible. One really surprising aspect of this trade, I think the Guardians just ate like $10 million with Gene Seguer.
Starting point is 00:26:59 Because he's due $8.5 million next year, or six and a half million next year, I think with a $2 million buyout for 2025. That's a little surprising. Yeah, I wonder, maybe they're really excited to get their hands here on Kalea Watson, who we'll talk about in just a second. Looking at the Guardians lineup from Tuesday,
Starting point is 00:27:18 Oscar Gonzalez seems like he might be a pretty big, winner too because it seems like he'll have the opportunity to be the everyday DH for the Guardians moving forward as well so I guess that's a name he you know popped up and was pretty good in the second half last year for them as well so we'll see what happens with Oscar Gonzalez again the return here on the Josh Bell trade Khalil Watson goes from the Marlins to the Cleveland Guardians and there's been a lot going on with Khalil Watson the past couple of years down in the minors 20 years old former first round pick back in 2020 is
Starting point is 00:27:50 Is that correct? I wrote 2016. It definitely was not 2016. 2020. 2021. Yeah. So he was the 16th overall pick in that draft. That's what I meant to write down.
Starting point is 00:28:02 But the production has been mostly bad. There were some power and speed. Originally coming into the MLB draft, lots of strikeouts, lots of character concerns. Scott, I'm guessing here that the guardians think maybe they can kind of get Khalil Watson's career back on track because I do think there's upside. but, man, there's also been a lot of downside for him too. Yeah, it's not a bad gamble for a guy who a couple years ago,
Starting point is 00:28:26 pretty much every prospect evaluator was excited about. There was a legitimate question. It was the big four shortstops from that 2021 draft class. It was Jordan Lawler, Marcelo Meyer, Brady House, and Khalil Watson, which of those four was going to be best? And some people were saying, I don't know how many people were saying Watson would be the best, but some of them were putting him ahead of others on that list, let's just say. And so his first year as a professional was just an total disaster.
Starting point is 00:28:57 This year hasn't been much better, but at least the strikeout rate has been much improved. He hasn't gotten suspended this year. Sure. That's a positive. I think the Guardians are just buying low, buying low, seeing if they can make something out of them, convert that talent into production. and if not, then, you know, no real loss, I guess. Yeah, and they are an organization.
Starting point is 00:29:24 It seems like that does get the most contact out of their hitters, or at least the ones that have come up throughout their system, right? The Will Brennan's, the Stephen Kwan's. You know, maybe that's just their profile, and that's why they're so good at it. But, you know, we'll see if they can get Khalil Watson's career back on track as well. The Marlins made one other trade. They acquired Ryan Weathers from the Padres in exchange for Garrett Cooper
Starting point is 00:29:44 and Sean Reynolds. Chris, is there a chance that Ryan Weathers starts here because Edward Cabrero was just optioned to AAA? Yeah, I mean, with that, I think it seems pretty likely that he's going to start. I don't think he's particularly good, but yeah, the Marlins needed some rotation depth, and I think that's all this is.
Starting point is 00:30:03 For Garrett Cooper, wondering if he just becomes a short side platoon bat for the Padres now because they also acquired G. Man Choy. We'll talk about that in a little bit. You know, makes sense. G. Manchoi great against right-handed pitching so far in his career. They can use Garrett Cooper against lefties. Maybe there's something I'm missing here, Scott,
Starting point is 00:30:21 but it seems like Garrett Cooper just lost a lot of playing time in San Diego. Yeah. I mean, he probably would have if he stayed in Miami with the acquisition of Josh Bell. So it seemed destined to happen either way. Who had the Padres been playing at DH previously? I guess it was Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz, who was now gone. just totally blew up on them.
Starting point is 00:30:45 They were using the catcher, Scott. Sanchez and Camp Eusano at Catcher in DH. Yep. So I would say nobody who we care about is hurt by this. All right, let's take our final break when we return. We'll talk about Scott Barlow. He was traded to the Padres and a few other smaller deals. We'll do all of that right after this.
Starting point is 00:31:06 Welcome back and let's stick with the Padres. They acquired Scott Barlow, who will likely be a set up man for them. Actually, I can guarantee you he will be a set up man for them. will be a set-up man for them. He will not be a closer for the Padres. But the bigger news is what happens in Kansas City. Carlos Hernandez likely steps in as the closer there. I mean, this is really low-end closer stuff because the Royals are not going to win many games rest of season. But Scott, who would you rather have between Carlos Hernandez, Gregory Santos, and Brooks Raleigh? I guess those are all the three closers that have emerged here on bad teams moving forward.
Starting point is 00:31:41 Yeah, I mean, different degrees of bad are those teams. And I would take Rayleigh most of all. I think he is the most likely to, well, first of all, I think the Mets remain the best team of those. And I think he's the most likely to, one of the most likely to just hold on to the role. The problem for Gregory Santos is that there's a good chance Liam Hendricks comes back at some point and gives him the boot. And yeah, I mean, Scott Barlow was having trouble getting saves all years. year for the royals. So even if Cesar Hernandez.
Starting point is 00:32:16 Carlos Hernandez, excuse me, even if Carlos Hernandez is really good, then the same you would figure would hold true for him. His numbers out of the bullpen this year have been not so good that like, oh wow, this guy needs to be in a closer role for somebody, but good enough that you could see him having a successful stint as a closer. 357 ERA.
Starting point is 00:32:36 0.98 whip 10.7K per 9. throws very hard. We're somewhat familiar with him in fantasy because he was a decent starter for the Royals a couple years ago. But now he's going to try his hand it closing. One would assume it is an assumption. He got to save, what, last week?
Starting point is 00:32:53 Yeah, I think on Sunday, I think. And has been pitching the eighth inning. So it's a reasonable assumption, but the save chances could nonetheless be few and far between. Can we go back for one second? Yep. Pretty significant name we forgot to mention among the Marlins rotation options. Yuri Perez.
Starting point is 00:33:17 Yep. He's likely to, I would, my guess is he makes one more start. I think that's today or tomorrow. And I would guess his next turn in the rotation is going to be in the Marlins rotation. So probably going to be Yuri Perez as the fifth starter from Marlins. Please, please. Get him back. That's, I'm, I'd be shocked if he made more than one more.
Starting point is 00:33:39 more start. Yes, please. Let's get him back in the Marlins rotation. Back to the Padres, they acquired some veterans in Rich Hill and G. Manchoi from the Pirates in exchange for left-handed pitcher Jackson Wolf, outfielder Estuar Suero, and Alfonso Rivas. G. Manchoy, very strong career numbers against right-handed pitching. I think, you know, very, very deep leagues if you're desperate for a corner infielder, potentially in that lineup. Rich Hill, maybe a streamer at times here. Chris, any interest? Deeper leagues, G. Man Choy. And Rich Hill. No.
Starting point is 00:34:11 No. No, I mean, they're not moving from the AL to the NL, so even that I can't really say. The joke answer I was going to say is Alfonso Rivas was Carlton and the Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Hmm. That guy's name was Alfonso Ribeiro. Yeah. Kind of similar.
Starting point is 00:34:32 I think that's all I've got. That is the extent of my thoughts on the Rich Hill G-Man Choi trade. The AL-N-L thing, Or were you just saying for people who play in AL in the only leagues they might? Yeah, okay, fair enough. I will point out, I think the return, at least in terms of this pitcher Jackson Wolf, I think it's a pretty nice get for the Pirates, 24-year-old lefty, 408, ERA-109 whip in the minors this year, but 10.7K per 9,
Starting point is 00:34:57 14 and a half percent swinging strike rate, did make a start earlier this season for the San Diego Padres. We'll see what happens with him, but I thought that was a pretty nice return there for the Pirates. Good job. We don't say that often. Diamondbacks acquired Tommy Femm from the New York Mets. And Scott, do you think Tommy Fem has a place to play every day? Or is he mostly a platoon partner for Alec Thomas? I don't feel too great about the playing time here.
Starting point is 00:35:22 I'm guessing it's the latter. You know, Alec Thomas is such a good defender in centerfield. Still isn't doing much with the bat, but they might value his defense enough in center to keep him there. More days than not. And maybe it's against left-handers where Corby and Carroll shifts over. to center to allow Tommy Fam in the lineup. I don't know that it'll be a strict lefty-righty thing,
Starting point is 00:35:43 but I do think I do think FAM will not be playing as much as he was with the Mets. And even that had begun to dwindle recently, fam dealing with a groin injury. Really hasn't played much the last couple weeks, hasn't hit much the last couple weeks when he has played. So to whatever degree,
Starting point is 00:36:03 even valuable in fantasy, I would say FAM is less so now. But, but, probably worth bringing this up now. The Mets have traded away Fam and Markano over the last week, leaving a big void in left field, which happens to be the position Ronnie Maricio, shortstop prospect, has been playing most at AAA recently. Now, they have made some roster moves to fill in all the spots that were in.
Starting point is 00:36:35 They did not call up Ronnie Maricio. And as you and I were discussing yesterday, Frank, we're at a point now, August 1st, where it might not make sense. Unless a team is counting on a prospect call up, propelling them into the playoff, it might not make sense to call them up until the last week of August, so that they retain rookie eligibility for next season and could potentially help them secure a draft pick.
Starting point is 00:37:04 So that may be what the Mets are thinking by not calling up Ronnie Maricio yet. But the path is wide open for him now whenever they decide to pull the trigger. And on that note as well, there was a quote that I saw recently earlier today from Buckshaw-Walter that said they will prioritize development and playing some of the young kids the rest of the season. And it sounds like Mark Vientos is going to get a fair opportunity starting at DH here on Tuesday night. So he's a name to watch. I don't think you have to add him. But he has performed very well in the minors, big pop as well.
Starting point is 00:37:36 So let's see if Mark Viantos can catch fire here with the New York Mets. Did you guys see the quote from Max Scherzer? I don't think so. He basically said that when he talked to the organization, they told him we're, basically we're looking ahead to 2025 and 2026. That like these moves were not, it's not a reloading for 2024 situation.
Starting point is 00:38:02 He said they told him they're probably not going to go after the big free agents this offseason and that they're looking ahead more to 2025, 2026. So that was very interesting. I mean, it wouldn't make sense for them to trade Verlander if they were thinking about contending next year. Certainly not to eat all the money and trade away Verlander. So I guess that makes sense. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:26 I was like, quote, I was like, okay, are we reloading for 2024? Billy Epler goes, no, we're not. Basically, our vision now is for 2025, 2020. 26, 25 at the earliest, more like 26. We're going to be making trades around that. I mean, I get it with some of the talent that they acquired and Brett Beatty and Ronnie Mauricio, if they think these kids can turn into anything. But they also have Francisco Lindor and P. Alonzo in the prime of their careers.
Starting point is 00:38:54 So it's kind of weird. You know, 2024, 2025, it sounds, or what, 2025, 2026. It sounds like a distant future where there are flying cars. and, you know, houses on very tall poles and whatever else. We call them stilts. It's two years for now. So just keep that in mind, Frank. They're only punting on one year.
Starting point is 00:39:20 I understand. But there were reports that they were listening on Pete Alonzo, that they didn't outright refuse to trade him. Because he's a free agent at the end of next season. I think it's also just especially weird. I mean, given just their circumstance, Their owner is Steve Cohen. He comes in with all this money
Starting point is 00:39:38 and they're expected to compete right away and now they're talking about 2026. I mean, it's a little weird, but we'll see. The Blue Jays, they acquired Paul DeYoung earlier in the day and originally, you know, my mind, I start thinking negatively. I'm like, what's wrong with Boba's shit? You know, he had the knee injury on Monday,
Starting point is 00:39:56 which kind of scary, but it turns out he's day-to-day with knee inflammation, so it doesn't sound like it'll be too bad. We'll see what happens, but Paul DeYoung also could be, a short side platoon partner for Brandon Belts at designated hitter. I think the bigger takeaway here is do the Cardinals be aggressive in calling up Mason win?
Starting point is 00:40:16 Because Tommy Edmund's gonna be back, but I think if they wanted to call it Mason Win, they could, and he is crushing it in the month of July, hitting 359, 8 home runs, 1177 OPS down in the minors. One of the top prospects in the game, Scott, I just don't know if there's enough incentive for the Cardinals to, I guess, start that close. clock with someone like Mason Wynne.
Starting point is 00:40:37 Late August there will be. Yeah. There was another, Brendan Donovan is out for the season. Yep. That was another thing that came out today. Yep. No, I do think we'll see when before the year is done.
Starting point is 00:40:51 I just don't know that there's much incentive to call him up today. All right. He is a really interesting prospect. It doesn't have like a huge power ceiling, but let's see. I'm trying to think. And hitting for power lately. Yeah, I mean, he has power, but it's, you know, he's, I don't see Mason win turning in.
Starting point is 00:41:13 I don't know, maybe like a Randy, a Rosarena caliber hitter is what he could be. But he's a shortstop, obviously. And former pitcher, he actually was two, only pitched one inning. But there were some thoughts of making him a two-way player when he was first drafted. He has a gun at shortstop. Ellie de la Cruz is standing as the hardest throwing infielder. will last as long as Mason win stays in the minors. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:39 Because he has been clocked at over 100 miles an hour on infield throws, I'm pretty sure. Defendantively, he is, he was ready on opening day. Defensively, it's just how quickly would the bat come along here for Mason win? But he's hitting well. The batting averages up, power, speed. It looks like a very promising player for the Cardinals in the future. We should see Mason win at some point later on this season. A few smaller trades, the Red Sox.
Starting point is 00:42:05 acquired Luis Arias from the Brewers. And Chris, you and I have long been to Luis Arria stands here on this podcast. Do you think he gets a chance to maybe play up the middle with Trevor Story? I don't know if he's going to play. I kind of think it's an interesting landing spot, though, because he's got that pull-heavy swing that has led to when things have gone well, a little bit of power to the pull side. that obviously could work out pretty well
Starting point is 00:42:35 with the green monster out there so it'll be interesting to see I'll keep an eye on it. Is he healthy right now? I think he was just sent to the miners because he was playing so poorly. So that's the last that I've heard on Luis Arias. The Dodgers acquired Ryan Yarbrough
Starting point is 00:42:50 from the Royals and my guess is that he'll come out of the bullpen and he does offer some starting pitcher depth if they need it. But as of now, the Dodgers have Tony Gonslin, Luis O'Reas, Julio Arias, Bobby Miller, Lance Lynn,
Starting point is 00:43:05 Clayton Kershaw could be back soon. They still have Emmett Sheehan, they have Michael Grove. And they're talking about Walker Bueller. He could be back by the end of the season as well. So it seems like Ryan Yarbrough, more of a long reliever than anything else for the Dodgers. The Rangers acquired Austin Hedges from the Pirates,
Starting point is 00:43:20 some catcher depth with Jonah Heim, recently going down with injury. Phillies acquired Rodolfo Castro in exchange for Bailey Falter, and then just some much smaller trades The White Sox acquired Luis Patino for cash. That is worth commenting on because he was a huge pitching prospect, Luis Petino, a couple years ago. What trade was he a part of? He part of the Jake Croninworth, Tommy Fam trade, was that it?
Starting point is 00:43:48 He was the biggest piece going back to the raise in a pretty significant trade with the Padres was Luis Petino. And just last year in a dynasty league, I fought hard to acquire him in a trade and was rebellious. because that's how highly regarded he was in an arm. And now the race... He was the Blake Snell trade. Yeah, the Blake Snell trade. Okay. And now the Razor trading him for cash?
Starting point is 00:44:10 That is a precipitous fall for a... He's been really bad. He has, but that's still... Yeah, 7.5K per 9, 5.8 walks per 9 at AAA this year. So a reclamation project's here for the White Sox. I mean, I suppose there's a chance he could pitch for them some down the stretch this year, given that their rotation is pretty depleted.
Starting point is 00:44:34 We'll see. Yep, we'll see there with Luis Petino. Yankees acquired reliever Keenan Middleton. The Braves acquired Brad Hand. The Brewers acquired Andrew Chafin. The race traded for Adrian Samson and Manuel Rodriguez from the Chicago Cubs. And to Nando Defino's delight,
Starting point is 00:44:54 his ears must be ringing somewhere. The Yankees acquired Spencer Howard. Someone I know Nando has loved forever. Let's wrap. A reclamation project. Yeah, let's, uh, quick mention on what could have been. Apparently the Dodgers and Tigers had a deal in place for Eduardo Rodriguez, but Erod actually invoked his no trade clause, which killed the deal. It's very interesting that he wouldn't want to go from a team like the Tigers to, to the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:45:20 But that would be an interesting story to follow and see if any details come out because. It sounds like he just doesn't want to move to the West Coast. Oh. It sounds like it was as simple as that. Fair enough. You know what? I don't want to move to the West Coast either. So I guess I see where he's coming from. No offense to the West Coasters out there. Multiple teams were in on Dylan Seas right up to the deadline, but nothing happened there.
Starting point is 00:45:41 The Pirates held on to David Bednar and Mitch Keller for now, see if they do anything in the off season. And the Mets did not trade away Adam Ottavino or Brooks Raley. So again, it looks like those guys will be first up in terms of saves for the New York Mets. Let's wrap up with some winners and losers here from this trade deadline. And Chris, we'll start off with you. Who do you have as a winner? Adress Munoz feels like an obvious one. I know he wasn't actually traded, but with Paul Seawald gone in Seattle,
Starting point is 00:46:11 he seems likely to be a high-end fantasy closer for the rest of the season. I'll say Jamer Candelario, just an upgrade, upgraded lineup, probably a slight upgrade in park. The other one that I was, I'm going to go. Jack Flaherty. I'm going to say Jack Flaherty is a winner. I really do think Camden Yards could make him go from someone who I really didn't have very much interest in at all in fantasy to someone who I think we will be talking about a decent amount the rest of the way. All right, Scott, I have a feeling Chris might have stole one of your answers or multiple. Well, yeah, I mean, I co-signed to Munoz being the biggest winner at the deadline. I said yesterday when the trade happened that I thought
Starting point is 00:46:51 that would be the case. And pleasantly surprised in my prediction. that it would be a relatively quiet deadline day given the given that the trades kind of, the trades were kind of more spread out over the course of the week this year rather than all happening at the last minute. So, you know, that proved to be true.
Starting point is 00:47:13 Okay, biggest winners, apart from Munoz, I'm going to say Lance Lynn getting a second chance to, a chance to turn his career around with an organization. that generally doesn't miss with its acquisitions in the Dodgers. I'm going to say Jordan Montgomery landing in an organization that gives them a lot more win potential.
Starting point is 00:47:38 And let's go with, I'm going to think this through a little more. I'm actually going to write about a column. I'm going to write a column about it after we get off. But just go on top of mind here. I had a third one. Now I can't remember it. Oh, it was Ronnie Marisi. even though he's not coming up today, I would call him a winner at the deadline since left field has opened up for him.
Starting point is 00:48:03 Yeah, I'm going to piggy back off that one as well. And I think this might be more so from a dynasty perspective, but Kyle Manzardo, I think he's a winner with all this going down. They traded away Josh Bell. There's a clear runway now. It's, you know, Kyle Manzardo and Josh Naler is the first base in the DH of the future for the Cleveland Guardians. He still does have some things to figure out in terms of the splits. He's been really bad against left-handed pitching in the Meyer. but if he can improve at all, I think that the Guardians are going to give him an opportunity to be an everyday player as soon as opening day next season. So I think a big winner here is Kyle Manzardo.
Starting point is 00:48:36 Let's slide over to the losers. Scott will start with you this time. Anyone very clearly losing value in fantasy baseball. I feel like C.J. Crohn's the biggest loser. He gets to keep playing for now. I'm not sure that's going to last, and even if it does last. You know, pre-Coresfield, C.J. C. C.C. C. C. C. C. C. C. was no great shakes and fantasy.
Starting point is 00:48:57 And so I believe that that's going to remain. He's going to revert to that. Other big losers. Uh, I don't know. You got anybody? I'll give you an assist here, Scott.
Starting point is 00:49:15 He has the same name as you. Scott Barlow. Scott Barlow. Yep, that's an obvious one, no longer getting saves. I was trying to, that's actually along the lines I was thinking, who loses?
Starting point is 00:49:24 his safe chances. Yeah, like I almost thought like David Montgomery as a winner, just, sorry, completely blanked. David Robertson. David Montgomery,
Starting point is 00:49:36 he's going to be great for the lions this year. Yeah, that's sorry. I'm writing about the running back depth charts, but like David Robertson going from a team that, as it turns out, was selling hard to a team that was buying. That's obviously,
Starting point is 00:49:48 I think a winner. Yeah, and so that would make AJ puck a loser, Tanner Scott, if you had picked him up, as a possible replacement since Puck was struggling.
Starting point is 00:49:59 Randall Gritchick, like C.J. Crone, I would have to consider a loser. Loser. And then, you know, all the Diamondbacks closer candidates led by Scott McGuff and Kevin Ginkle.
Starting point is 00:50:14 I would have to call them losers. Yeah, I think those are the clearest ones. Chris, any additions here? I've got one that's a lot. little off the wall, but just kind of trying to read the tea leaves here. Maybe Jonah Heim. You know, maybe the decision to trade for Austin Hedges. I know Austin Hedges, look, that's one of the, maybe the worst hitter in baseball among, like,
Starting point is 00:50:37 players who actually try to hit now. But, you know, maybe that acquisition suggests a little concern about his ability to come back from that wrist injury. I just remembered, too, that I wanted to bring up. Jonathan Aranda, loser. Michael Bush. loser. A couple 25-year-olds have absolutely nothing more to prove in the miners. They are dominating down there and they just can't find openings with the big club. And I thought, I hoped they would be
Starting point is 00:51:06 dangled as trade bait. Maybe Bush was part of a hypothetical Eduardo Rudernernery's deal. We'll never know. But they remain with their present organizations, which means they remain in purgatory and that's frustrating because they both look like they could I mean really any prospect who gets traded away from the raise I know they're a very smart organization
Starting point is 00:51:31 that tends to get a lot of the most out of their guys but like any guy getting traded from the raise I'm going to view as a winner just because the guardians are much less likely one the rays are just incredibly patient with their with their hitters you know with their prospects in general and they're always willing to use guys in platoon rolls.
Starting point is 00:51:51 If, oh man, I'm blanking on the name now. The guy they just traded to the Guardians. Kyle Monsardo. Kyle Mazzardo. God, I just saw somebody tweet Angel Bastardo's name. And just completely, they're so similar that I just completely blanked. He's going to play every day next year. He may not be good every day.
Starting point is 00:52:16 you know, he may struggle against lefties, but like the raise, there was a really good chance that he gets called up by the race next season and is just a platoon player. That's just how they operate. They're fully willing to potentially sacrifice long-term development for short-term gains. Yeah, we're totally on the same wavelength with that.
Starting point is 00:52:37 I was actually saying last night, because I traded Kyle Monsardo away in the Scott White Dynasty League this year, and if I had known he was going to be in. with a different organization before he got called up to the big leagues, I might not have done that because, yeah, with the Rays, you have to assume they're going to,
Starting point is 00:52:55 to, uh, they're looking for any possible edge they can get in terms of winning games right now. And that's smart. They're really good at that, but it's for our, when you look at Joshua Lowe, who has been really good, but has been hampered by the fact that he doesn't play every day.
Starting point is 00:53:12 Yep. Well, that's it. The opening day is opening day. The trade deadline, we're all over the place. Let's get it together before we come back here later on. Let's meditate and kind of think about what we're doing here. But the trade deadline is in the books. The big news of the day,
Starting point is 00:53:26 Justin Verlander sent back to the Houston Astros, Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies, Jack Flaherty to the Orioles, and the Marlins trading for a bunch of hitters, Jake Berger and Josh Bell. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
Starting point is 00:53:42 Please like and subscribe to the YouTube channel, if you haven't already, and we'll be back again a little bit later on. Bye-bye!

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