Fantasy Baseball Today - Mock Draft MEGA STREAM - H2H Points Daily on ESPN (3/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 15, 2025

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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. All right, and that brings us to the ESPN Head-to-Headpoint draft. Draft number of the day, and Chris will be hosting this one.

I'm just going to kind of pass things along. We are also joined by Sky Dombrovsky, who is the reigning, defending Tout Wars head-to-head champion. Sky, thank you so much for joining us. How's everything going, man? Everything is great. How are you guys doing? Doing very well. It's obviously been a very hectic day, a fun day.

Thank you for everyone. Thank you to everyone for being here. We've got over 1,700 people watching us live right now. You hit the like button, subscribe to the channel. If you haven't already, we are into draft number 3. which is a ESPN head-to-head point mock draft with daily lineups. I will pull up some of the specifications on this league. Again, it's daily lineups, and it's a 19 round draft,

a little bit different lineups. There's nine starting hitters, one of each infield position, three outfielers, one utility. Same as the CBS Sports on that side. That doesn't sound too different. But then there's only seven pitcher spots, however you want to use them. So it's kind of like Roto in that you can start. all seven starters if you want. You can start all seven relievers if you want. You can go five and

three, five and two. If I could do math, four and three, however you want to divide it up. So it'll be interesting to see how you guys want to do that. And the scoring format for hitters here, it's one point for each of a run, total base RBI walks steals. That's for hitters. And minus one for hitter strikeouts, which changes a lot in this format. And for pitchers, three points per inning, one for a strikeout, two for a win, five for a save, two for a hold, minus one for each of a hit and a walk, minus two for earned runs and losses. Chris is drafting eighth. Eighth in this draft, and I believe Sky is drafting seventh. So Chris, I'll let you catch everyone up on the picks, and it's in your hands now. Enjoy you guys. Yes, welcome to the ESPN head-to-head points draft. Sky, we brought you in

because it's a different format, but you did win the head-to-head points Tout Wars League last season. And you and I will be drafting together in, what about 36 hours, something like that? Is it that close? I think it's a few more than that, but we're in the ballpark now. Yeah, we're Sunday at 10 a.m. Tout Wars Head to Head Points. I'm in that one because I had been in one of the online ones for a while,

and I wanted to get in-person draft. and I picked the one at 10 a.m. on a Sunday. So we'll see how that one goes. Yeah. Yeah. It's going to be fine. But we are eight picks into the draft. And no surprise here, Shoha Tani, the number one player in a daily lineups league. That's going to be the call.

He is projected in the draft room for 850 points. But I do want to ask you, do you expect much from Shoha Tani as a pitcher this year? I think that with the depth of the Dodgers entire pitching staff, it would be very easy for them to be extremely conservative with him this year. So as far as expectations, I think, you know, the second half of the year, I do think that he'll pitch and pitch well. But I bet they'll baby him. And I think that anybody that is expecting more than, you know, a dozen or 15 starts is maybe likely to be disappointed. Yeah. Yeah, I agree with that. And they've already shut him down from throwing. this spring. So he'll pick that up probably some time after the season starts. And, you know, there's some risk that there's going to be some time off when he does start pitching on the

hitting side to try to keep him fresh. So there's a little bit of risk there. But I think any daily lineups league, he's still the obvious number one pick. And frankly, he's arguably the obvious number one pick in any draft if he can do anything close to what he did last year. Then we had Aaron Judge as the number two pick. He was the number two player in this. And he's, this format, even with strikeouts being worth that extra half point. We had Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, who is the number two projected player in the draft room in this format. Bobby Witt loses a little bit with the extra half point for strikeouts, although he really

isn't a bad strikeout rate guy. Do you think Bobby Witt at number five is actually overthinking it that he dropped a little too low? I absolutely, yes. I think that I probably would have taken him second or a third in this. format. I mean, the biggest thing I think, and you know this, about points leagues is that every single format that you're going to play is different. There are always little things that you can exploit. I think that's the big difference when you're talking about roto style formats versus

point formats. There's always going to be some movement of player rankings based on whatever format you're going through, whatever is valued in that. Yeah, we had Kyle Tucker go number six. And then you took Mookie Betts. Was that the obvious choice for you or were you picking between a couple different people. I had six players that I was happy to get at seventh and Betts was the last of the six. So yeah, that was, it was sort of, I had two or three guys that I thought I'd be choosing between, I believe you took Scoble right after me. Yes. Yeah, that would have been, that would have been where I went next. So yeah. Who, who among the first six was not in that seven? Or was that, no, I got that wrong, right? Or no, you said there were six you wanted at number seven. Right. I was at seven.

So who got pushed out? For me, I had him ranked more around 9 or 10 in this format. Okay. So it's not that much of a reach. You know, Jose Ramirez is great and third base is a weaker position. But I had him ranked a little bit lower than that. All right. I'm going to try something out because this is a format where I feel like hitter values are suppressed a little bit,

more so than any other scoring format pitchers really make up the gap. So I am going to go, can you call it Pocket Aces if you're picking seventh or is that just 12-13? But I did start Tarek Scouble and Logan Gilbert as my top two picks. Am I, is that, is that dumb? I don't think so at all. I was actually, I talked to Frank a little bit yesterday and then I was looking through this format because I, this year actually do not have any ESPN teams. Okay. So I was looking through and I thought, you know, there are only about 18 hitters that are worth at a certain three.

threshold that I was looking at. And there are almost as many starting pitchers that are over that threshold. The peak isn't the same, but this level that I was looking at 400 points for the year projected, there were almost as many starters starting pitchers that were there. So I thought, you know, going pitching heavy, this might be one instance to do that with this particular scoring for me. Yeah, and nobody else has really done that so far. We had Yordon Alvarez number nine, Vladimir Guerrero, number 10, Corbyn Carroll at 11 and then at the 12th. 13 turn. We had Gunner Henderson and Paul Skeens. Do you think Gunner Henderson falls too much? Any worry about this intercostal strain? I don't have a big negative feeling about it right now.

I think, again, you know, a lot of these guys in the spring, they're just, you get 20, 30 at bats and you're good. So I think the Orioles are being really cautious with him. He's obviously just a linchpin of their offense at this point, even in just his third or fourth year. I think that he's going to be fine. He thinks he's going to be fine. he says he's going to be fine. I also think that the last week of spring training games, I think we'll see him in there. Yeah, the average time missed for an intercostal strain based on when he suffered the injury would put him on the field in about a week from now,

which would give him, you know, maybe three or four games at the end of spring training to get back up to speed before opening day. So as long as he hits that, I think we're fine. The pick after that, Paul Skeens leads off round two, Francisco Lindor. The next pick, Zach Wheeler, Fernando, Katis drops to the fourth pick of the second round. I went Logan Gilbert, as I said, starting with Terrick Scoobel and Logan Gilbert.

You go Garrett Crochet at number six in round two. Any concern in a points league about the volume with Garrett Crochet? He threw 145 innings last season. First time in his life that he'd thrown more than 70 innings in a season. He's a bust for me, but obviously the talent is maybe the best pitcher in baseball upside. Yeah, I think so. I really wanted Logan Gilbert to be perfectly candid. So you grabbed him. I think Logan Gilbert could be SP1 this year. I really do. That's one of the few bets that I've made for season long awards. I bet. I love the odds on Gilbert for the ALS I. I mean, you know, what's this competition? It's Scoble. So I think that he's the clear number two choice and the odds had him lower than that. So I love Gilbert. Crochet for me. Upside. Yeah, same as same as all the guys that were taken before him. I think the upside is right. right there. Yes, the downside is significant. And probably if we were actually playing this for money, I would not have taken crochet. But there's no reason not to be aggressive with the way that we're doing

this. And crochet for me was the last guy that probably could give you ace level upside. And we're seeing a lot of starting pitchers in round two, which if you've drafted at other sites, other formats, it might be a little shocking. This feels like back, you know, six or seven years ago on CBS when starting pitchers still through 200 innings and volume was the biggest factor for starting pitchers. And you would routinely see a ton of second third round pitchers. Not so much these days. Now it's mostly starting in the third round, but we saw after you took Garretre crochet with the six pick, Catel Marte goes off, but then Corbyn Burns, Coleriggins, Dillon Sees right in a row. Who's your favorite of that three? Burns, Regens, and Cease.

We actually just touched on this on a podcast yesterday. I am not a Dylan Seas guy. I'm really an anti-Walk guy when it comes to analyzing starting pitchers at this point. Because with the change in stolen base rules the last couple of years, I think walks are even more penalized than they always have been. So for me, it's Regens. Reagan's is the best guy of those three as far as I like the situation he's in. Burns going to Arizona from Baltimore,

which had the nice fences last year, maybe not in the first year. I think that Reagan says the best upside and the best floor of those three. Dylan Sees and Blake Snell, for me, are the two pitchers that I just can't watch if I'm going to analyze them fairly because I just, I hate the roller coaster ride of watching them pitch. It just, it drives me crazy. And I know that if I'm watching Dylan Seas and he has one of those like first innings where he just can't find the strike zone, I just can't help but think this guy is. I don't want him ever on my team. I want 100% understand what you're saying. I have a soft spot for Snell because he probably won me the playoffs last year.

There you go. So, you know, I just think he's outstanding. But, yeah, it can get pretty ugly. At the first half of last year, he was awful. He just couldn't find the strike zone. And those guys, that's the thing, right? You know, mechanically, they're a little bit wacky. You know, a lot of moving parts, especially with Snell.

And he gets in these funks for six weeks. weeks where he just, he's walking six guys in four innings and you just can't get deep enough to get the win. It's problematic. I, it, the thing with Blake Snell that always makes him so hard to, to analyze is it's a different explanation every year, right? Like one year, it's like his changeup was terrible. And then the next year's change up is the best pitchy. I think last year his change up was his best pitch. And so it's like, it's a different version of Blake Snell. You always have to ride the like five ERA in May that inevitably happens to get to the good point. So the thing I always tell people, it's not that Blake Snell is a bad pick, but you've got to know yourself and your

temperament and how, because there is always a point in the year where we start to get questions. Can I drop Blake Snell? I'm dropping Blake Snell. I'm tired of this. And it's just, you know that's going to happen. And you've got to know that it's going to be fine eventually. It's just you've got to be able to ride the ride and some people don't have the the temperament for it but let's uh let's catch up on some of the picks brys harper was the 11th pick around two followed by freddie freeman blake snell with the first pick around three manny machado anthony sontan dare that's an interesting one it might just be this is a this is a format personally that i it's been a long time since i've played a league on ESPN so they're then and i think they refreshed their scoring format like four or five years ago so

it's really, really weird to me. I'm looking at the rankings and like, Luis Arias is the 34th pick. And given how much you lose for strikeouts, that probably makes sense, even though he is, frankly, a pretty marginal player everywhere else. So it's interesting. I would guess, you know, Santander for a power hitter doesn't strike out a ton, so maybe that's a decent call. What do you think of that pick?

I really just am not a Santander fan. And I look at the exit velocity and just the massive pull and fly ball that he requires to continue to hit this number of home runs. And I keep thinking, much like I did with Brian Dozier back in the day, this gravy train is going to stop sooner or later. And I keep being wrong. So, you know, being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong. So I'm just always wrong on him. But I can't, like I know the year I jump in, he's going to hit like 21 homers. And that'll be that.

Yeah, he traded some batting average for power last season. I would expect we see a little bit of a flip. flop there. Toronto's been a weird place to hit over the past couple of years. It used to seem like a pretty good home run park especially, but the past couple of years, you know, maybe the past four years since they changed the configuration of the seating. It's played a little weird. So I'm not sure how he's going to play. But that's probably a little bit of a reach. And then you've We've got Chris Sale, William Contreras, just an all-around edge at the catcher position. Jackson Churio, because the plate discipline is not so great, you know, maybe he falls in this format.

But it's one of those things where you're going to, you're going to have to draft Jackson Churio ahead of what he did last year, certainly. So any, any pick with him is a bet on him taking a step forward. We've got Emmanuel Class A is the seventh pick in round three. Raphael Devers was my pick and I've been pretty down on Raphael Devers but I'm starting to talk myself into the concerns about him

and the health of the shoulder maybe just being an attempt to save face you know like the team wants him at DH and I'm kind of thinking there's some back behind the scenes like oh yeah we're going to say your shoulders hurt so that you can't play third base and kind of make it so that, oh, we told he would be our third baseman. He just can't play it. Oh, no, but he's going to, he's going to be our DH. What do you think of that? He's your guy. You've got to protect him publicly. And I think you're absolutely

right with that. There's no, nothing to go on really other than supposition there. But I really kind of feel like, yeah, they're just kind of kind of cushioning him a little bit from public relations standpoint. point and just letting him do what's best for the team in a way that it looks like it's nobody's fault. And I did want to pause on your pick, which was a manual class say, how do you feel about relievers in this format specifically? In this format, I think that they are rather valuable. So I'm okay with grabbing some relievers. In fact, Frank and I were joking about it. You could pick four closers and three middle relievers and survive in this format if your offense is strong enough. Yeah, because you do get two points for holds, you get two points for saves.

So, you know, those relievers who are in between roles actually still have some value because of the holds. And you get two points for wins. So it's not like wins are so much more valuable. Right. Than saves. And, you know, the minus two for an earn run. It just, it can compound. You know, the really bad starts for starters in this format, especially, you're going to get a lot of negative points in a way that.

in CBS because the innings and the strikeouts matter more. And do you get quality start points in this or no? Not in this one, I don't think. Okay. So that also, you know, bridges the gap between starters and closers relative to the CBS format. After Rafael Devers, we had Adley Ruchman. I expect a big bounce back from him. What about you?

Yeah, I do as well. I think he's just a great hitter. I love the way he manages the strike zone. He probably knows the zone as well as any hitter. and he's still so young. Really impressive in this format in particular. I think he's quite valuable. The thing about that about Ruchman over the past few years early in his career has been

he's a better points league player than a Roto player because he doesn't hit over the fence power. But one, they're moving the fences in in left field, which will help him a little bit, but probably not too much. But the bigger thing for me is through the end of June, he was on a 30 homer pace last year. He was, he arguably looked like, if not for Aaron Jones. one of the AL MVP front runners. Then he took a foul tip off the hand, missed one day, kept playing through it, but there was a clear decline in his production.

So I'm willing to write that off. All right, let's catch up. Marcus Simeon, Corey Seeger. Matt Olson was the final pick of the third round, expecting the bounce back from him. This is, I think, maybe the most notable, or one of the most notable. And that's Ellie De La Cruz falling to the first pick of the fourth round.

and honestly, that might even be a little bit higher than he's likely to finish, unless you think he's going to take a big step forward as a hitter. And that's really one of the biggest differences in this format, even from a CBS league where we drafted earlier, he's more like a late first rounder in that. Here, you know, I think he was like barely a top 60 finisher last year, if I'm remembering correctly. I have him ranked in the fourth.

So I think he went kind of around where I would put him. But I think it does sort of presuppose some improvement in plate discipline and contact ability, which who knows? He's a free swagger. Yeah. Someone said that Frank can't say, we can't say tweak when we're talking about batting stances because someone heard it and thought he got hurt. Elie Dela Cruz made a change to his tweak is the right word. He made a small change to his batting stance. he's standing a little more upright at the plate.

And the hope is that he's going to cut down on strikeouts, be more of a consistent power hitter. It's been very hit or miss for him throughout his career. They also announced today that he's going to be the number three hitter for the Reds. Any concern that that drops his stolen base total? Or is he just such an outlier there in terms of skill that it doesn't matter? I think it's more of the latter. I think that he is just so fast and talented at stealing bases.

But, you know, if you, you've got Spencer Steer in front of you who is fast, but not Ellie fast. You know, I think that it will, maybe it impacts him five steals, something like that. I wouldn't expect much more than that, though. Yeah, I don't think like the 80 steel dreams are likely to happen because he also, he'll lose 40 or so 45 plate appearances over the course of the season if he hits third the whole time instead of first. So, you know, there's some drawbacks there.

but if we get a 90 run 95 RBI season probably makes up for it a little bit. After Allie Dela Cruz, Alex Bregman, one of the risers in this format. Ronald Acuna, we found out today the expectation he's going to be ready early to mid-May, which I think that's mostly been the expectation. How are you viewing Acuna? I was thinking May 1st, so now this sounds a little bit to me like it's going to be a week or two later than that. I had already kind of pushed him pretty far down my board. I don't think he's going to run much.

I really don't. That would be like a concern. And the concern there is because when in 22, when he came back from the knee injury for the first time, he made up for his lack of hitting by running a ton. He was on like a 45 steel pace that year. But he didn't hit as well. If there's some concerns about the bat and he doesn't run, yeah, it could be more like a third round type of player even spread out over a full season after him for ambrose i took jackson

maryl who is discounted a little bit in a points league because he had like a four percent walk rate last year he was one of the the most walk averse players but he's got such a strong hit tool it's a little bit of a bet on him taking a big step forward but he was close to that 400 point threshold last year 388 last year just ahead of someone like hose al tuvae who you took would you have taken merrill if he was there. Yes. Yeah, I would have. I love the kid. I think he's great. He gives me like Christian Yelich vibes. Obviously, he doesn't walk as much, but just like that super strong all around skill set. I love Jackson Merrill. And the end you too. He's so young. All right. I am going to take a reliever, Josh Hater, who took a big step forward last year in terms of the innings. Remember,

he used to be a guy who threw 80 innings every year. We'd get a bunch of of two-inning outings. The last couple of years with the Brewers, I think there was like, I think he actually told the team ahead of his free agency. I'm only working one inning. But last year, I think he had like seven or eight multi- inning outings. So the volume was back a little bit. I think he's an elite closer. Let's catch up a little more. Trey Turner, Luis Castillo. Pete Alonzo, I do think, hoping for a bounce back this season, do you think that's going to come for Pete Alonzo? Well, you always worry about guys coming off a big contract signing.

It's very cynical to say, but there can be a little bit of complacency that seeps in. It's like, okay, I'm okay now. I'm good. I don't have to go nuts every single day to make sure that my family's taking care of the rest of their lives. The one thing that he has going for him in that regard, though, is he does have that opt-out. I think after each of the first three seasons or each of the three seasons of that deal. So there is that added incentive of, hey, if I have a big year this year, I can opt out and maybe get that $200 million contract I was hoping for.

Yeah, that's a good point. I do think he really loves being in New York, though, with the math. I think it was always kind of a little bit of a smoke screen just to kind of push the price up a little bit, that, oh, no, no, I might not be coming back. I think in both regards, because at one point, the Mets, they started leaking like, we're good. We don't need him. We love Brett Bady. He's our third baseman. We don't care if Pete Alonza comes back.

And it never felt sincere on either side. It was always inevitable that they were going to come back together. And it was just a question of finding the right price. Closing out the fourth round, Pablo Lopez, Max Fried, and Stephen Kwan, another one. If he doesn't get that, if he doesn't have that injury last year, you know, he had a career year in a lot of ways, especially power, but really struggled in the second half. Do you think the batting average decline we saw in the second half was anything to worry about? Or do you think it was most of the injury? I think he was just banged up.

He's another guy that just controls the strike zone so well. And the contact ability is almost at a rise level. So, yeah, I think that you'll see a nice little bounce back from Kwan. The problem is is one of those guys. I don't love drafting him. He's a high floor, low ceiling guy. Yeah, there's only so much you can do when you only hit when your career high, I believe is 10 home runs.

Right. That was followed up with Luis Reyes. So a clear point there of emphasis for wide range of outcomes, who ironically drafted two players with very, very slim ranges of outcomes in Luis Arias and Stephen Kwan. And we had Aaron Nola, Devin Williams, Austin Riley. Jaron Duran really falling in this one. What do you make of that?

A lot of K's, but boy, I love Darren Duran. And I feel like, you know, we talked about this a lot on our pod that, you know, second or third full year of playing time for a young player. You can get some pretty big jumps in ability to manage the strike zone and things like that. So you could see a bit of a pop from Jared Duran this year. I think in most formats, his price reflects this. But I love Jared Duran. I think he's a good player.

Yeah, he's a tough one just because while this is just his second year, he is already 28. And so that was one of the things when I was looking at the Red Sox. I was like, do they look at trading Jaron to ran this offseason just because he's a little older? Does his timeline match up with the big prospects? They ended up keeping him. It's a great park. It's a tough park for lefties to hit for power. But it really boost batting average, which helps him overcome those strikeout woes.

And I think that lineup's going to be really good. If Raphael Devers is himself, that lineup could be awesome. I think it could. And you've got so much coming up through the pipeline that can, can be impactful too, that if certain guys struggle or whatever, you've got other options. I really like what Boston has done the last couple of years while kind of drifting toward the bottom of the division for him. Yeah, Holy Rodriguez, another one of the big fallers here. You could argue this is a reach for him in this format, although I do expect the big step forward after a really disappointing year.

Last year, the biggest issue, he just couldn't hit. He couldn't get the ball out of the park on the pull side. That was where most of his power had come from. And whether it was, he just wasn't hitting it quite as close to the foul pole as he was, just more into the power alleys. He was just a little bit behind. But he's talked this spring about getting as many played appearances as he can, both in games and in, you know, either the trajectory machine or minor league live batting practice.

He did a live batting practice against Andres Munoz a couple days ago. was when we we first saw that new change up from Andres Munoz that looks like it could be an otherworldly pitch if he can command it at all. Devin Williams like. Yeah. Yeah. It looks that kick change for him. Matt Brash when he first threw it in the, when Munoz first threw it in a bullpen session,

Matt Brass said that was the best pitch he'd ever seen. And it was literally the first one he threw. So, and Matt Brash, Matt Brash knows a little something about nasty pitches. So that was fun. You took Mason Miller here. I followed up with Josh Hader. You did take Mason Miller ahead of Hater. Do you expect more?

I think Miller only had 28 saves last season, but obviously the strikeout rate is out of this world. He might be my favorite pitcher to watch in baseball. Yeah, and I think you get the multiple inning appearances that you mentioned that Hater threw a bunch back in last year. I think you get those from Miller as well as a converted starter. So I think Mason Miller, I would have to agree as far as electric stuff and just joy watching them work at their craft. He's up there for me too, for sure. And he's like built like an NFL free safety.

Like he's mad. He's got giant shoulders. So he's like super intimidating out there. He's so much fun to watch. We got Yoshinovi Yamamoto after that. Michael King, Logan Webb, Ozzy Albi. So what you are seeing here is like we talked about those starting pitchers getting pushed up. the board. Logan Webb, his ADP in your standard, your NFBC leagues and stuff, he goes outside of the

top 100 a lot, which I think reflects new depth of the position. Maybe Logan Webb being a little undervalued because he's boring, but last year, 382 points was even better in 2023. So I think that's a fine pick. Ozzy Albies hoping for the bounce back. We got Ozzy Albies and Wyatt Langford at the five, six turn. We'll catch up and then I do want to talk about Bailey over a little bit because, sorry, White Langford a little bit, but we've been playing catch up the whole time and I feel like I need to get us up to speed. Bailey Ober, Will Smith, Edwin Diaz, I took Josh Naylor, you took Alec Boe, Bowman,

another guy, much better in this format, right? I think so. And I think he's underrated in most formats. He's got excellent exit velocity, excellent line drive rate, really controls a strike zone well. he's in a great lineup, getting in a middle of the lineup. The only thing that's missing for him is, well, aside from speed, is over the fence power. But I feel like he's one of these guys that one of these years, instead of 50 doubles and 15 homers, you're going to get like 35 doubles and 30 homers.

Everybody's going to go like, oh, oh, what happened? Well, one degree of launch angle, that's what happened. Yeah, one degree of launch angle, hitting it a little closer to the foul pole. Yeah, yeah. Could see that. Tyler Glass now, he's awesome when he's on the field. It's just last year was a career high in innings. I don't think he even got to one, or he,

got the 134, I believe. So it, it's just hard to see that big step forward. But on a per start basis, there aren't more than eight, nine pitchers better than Tyler Glass now in the entire game. Vinnie Pass Guantino. I took Josh Naylor right before VinnyP, but they are very similar players. A lot of RBIs because they make a lot of contact. Not as many home runs. I think, you know, Josh Naylor's 31 homers last year, probably not likely to repeat, but a great long. lineup great ballpark uh george kirby at 69 it just comes down to how long he's out if he's back by mid-april could be awesome but it does remind me a little of kevin gossman last year where gosman missed a little time he was back fairly quickly but he just wasn't quite the same he just

kind of muddle along all year what are your concerns with george gherb yeah i don't have a real good feel on the george kirby injury right now um i think it could easily be something like that but he is a lot younger than Gousman was. So you'd have some hope that you wouldn't get that same just kind of dog of a year where he's just kind of grinding through it as a as an SP3 or something like that. Yeah. Man, this draft room, it's really throwing me off. The list of players showing up, especially because I don't have, you know, when we draft

on CBS, my rankings are in the room. I can just go on that. That's super easy. That's a great feature. But here, I'm all thrown off. I'm looking at the board. and Alec Berlison or Brendan Donovan's here. That's weird, but, you know, maybe the scoring format makes it, makes it justifiable.

He doesn't strike out. Yeah, it doesn't strike out. Joe Ryan was the 70th pick, third to last pick of round six, Marcel Ozuna, Justin Steele, to close out round six. Then Bryce Miller, I think that's a great value here. What do you think of Bryce Miller at the first pick in the seventh round? I think I have Bryce Miller as my ace in one league. So, yeah, it's a great pick down here. Yeah, he is one of those guys an elite whip, which matters less in this format than it does in Roto, but could be, I mean, he certainly was an ace in the second half of last season.

Wily Adamas, Yiner Diaz. I have some concerns about Yiner Diaz, just the playing time with the Christian Walker signing and with Yardana Alvarez playing full-time DH. How many times is he going to be in the lineup in those spots? but great hitter. He's kind of the new Salvador Perez with his very aggressive swing. If he can put together the batting average from last year and the power from 2023, you're talking about maybe the number one catcher, certainly the upside there. Yeah, I agree.

But I think that there is some cause for concern there, we'll say. I might put Diaz down around number four in standard scoring formats. I do think that there's probably a little bit of regression there. He was sort of fortunate with his Babbin for a guy that's really slow and a right-handed pull hitter. Yeah, I also just, he's the number two catcher in NFBC leagues now. He's like a top 55 pick. That feels way too early. I couldn't take him ahead of Adley Ruchman.

I think he's closer to Salvador Perez and Wilson Contreras. Will Smith, too, I think. I think all those guys, you can put in a little batch there, I think. All right, we got Kyle Schwaber going to get on base a ton. He was a 400-point player. like a good value. Esoc Paredes, anybody who listens to FBT, if you're watching this stream, you know, we all love Esoc Paredes.

We think the move to Houston was just about the best case scenario after Chicago being just about the worst place that he could have landed with that 355 foot left field foul pole. So I love the upgrade there. We got Sonny Gray. Michael Harris just got to stay healthy. and, you know, the tools, he's one of the fastest players in baseball. He hit two home runs on Wednesday that went a combined 880 feet.

Yep, yep. Love to see that. He hits the ball really hard. Doesn't elevate it a ton, but the thing you have to remember, Michael Harris, I think he just turned 24. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah.

So, yeah, I think that's tough side is just about anybody that's not a first round pick. Yep. No, I think if he had a random 30-30 season, it wouldn't really surprise me. Yep, agree. I went with Brian Reynolds another, just, the way I described him is just, just eat your oatmeal. Like, there's nothing interesting about him. He's going to hit 260 to 270. He's going to hit 20 to 23 home runs.

I think he's been at 24 home runs exactly three of the past four years. The one outlier was 27. So it's like, if that's the ceiling and that's the, floor. It's a pretty small margin. Brendan Donovan. I have four guys too. I mean, they're important. Oh, yeah. I think we can we can undervalue them, but Brian Reynolds in a roto league especially, someone I almost never draft, just because I am chasing a little more upside in that range of the draft. We had Brandon Donovan, like we talked about, big boost in this format. Is there just any, is there concern

about him not being an everyday player in St. Louis? They've got so many guys that they feel very amos. But I still think that there's going to be room for him. He'll find his way into the lineup five days out of six, six days out of seven. I would hope so, yeah. Let's go with another pitcher here for me, Shota Imanaga, who I do have some concerns about what we'll talk about. Ryan Heldsley led the National League in saves last year.

Don't expect him to save. I think it was like 64% of their games or something. something last year. It was by far the highest rate in baseball. But he's all obviously awesome. Zach Allen, I think is being kind of unfairly maligned this season. What do you think about Zach Allen? I love Zach Allen. I mean, I hit him as a borderline SP1 last year. Certainly not there this year. But I think, you know, if he's, if he's your probably SP3 in this format, that's fantastic. Gallen has some excellent skills. Yeah, his velocity's been down so far in spring. I I don't know how much to worry about that with a veteran like Gallen just because he probably isn't focusing on maxing out velocity.

And he's never been a max out velocity guy anyway. You know, it's always more like 94 than 97 for him. So he's got two weeks until opening day. I would assume he's going to be fine. But I think people were already kind of out on Zach Allen and they're looking for reasons to be more out. And he's dropping to like one third. in NFC drafts right now. He's like SP40 in some drafts.

It seems unfair. This was a borderline ace the previous two years before 2024. Ryan Walker, big time strikeout upside that he showed last year. If he holds onto that job and is as good as he looked, he could be excellent. Freddie Peralta, this is an interesting one because I saw the other day. He, his mechanics were off last year. I hadn't seen any discussion of this, but at some point, last season he had to move from the third base side of the rubber to the first base side of the

rubber because he said he wasn't able to throw his fastball to righties the way he wanted to and he had to move on the mound to get the the looks that he was looking for but he fixed his mechanics thinks that he's going to be better this season i'm a little more interested in him than i have been he's kind of a little bit of a poor man's blake snow where like there are frustrations along the way but you're going to get a lot of strikeouts and the end results are going to be pretty good. So Freddie Peralta is someone I'm kind of interested in. We're almost caught up. We're in the same round as the draft.

Cody Ballinger goes 86, Ryssel Iglesias, Christian Walker dealing with that oblique. Did you, have you downgraded Christian Walker at all? He hasn't been swinging yet, but still has a chance to be ready for opening day. He is a guy. I mean, I've got so many leagues going at this point. and I don't have any Christian Walker. I just somehow, if I don't get Vlad Guerrero or Bryce Harper, I just end up waiting on first base for an interminable period of time

and end up with like Nathaniel Lowe or something like that. Nathaniel Lowe, sneaky, viable option. Yeah, 15-team league especially. Nobody wants him. Yeah, I don't get it. Like, he's a very solid hitter. I kind of don't get what the Rangers were thinking there with the basically trading him for Jake Berger.

I get Burger hits for big power, but Nalo's a very good defensive player. He gets on base. He kind of does everything Jake Burger doesn't. Yeah. And, you know, you've already got Burger clone in Adola Garcia. That's, you know, tons of power and tons of K's and right-handed pull. Do you really want another one of those guys? I thought it was an odd move as well.

And normally I like what the Rangers do. Yeah, Shoday Minaga, I took him with the, was that the sixth, seven, six pick. of round eight you went with roki sasaki i'm going to have fomo because i'm not going to draft him this year and it's going to be tough when i watch him pitch it's going to be real real much of i have so much i just couldn't after watching him i just couldn't let him go i couldn't watch him on another team like you're saying you know yeah it's that's one i kind of the opposite of snell and and cease where when he when i'm not watching him i'm like it's fine he's going to be There are questions about the fastball shape, all that stuff.

And then I watched him at the first start and I was like, oh, yeah, that's right. That's why. Yeah, yeah. No, I get it. But the bellows down a little too. So I do have my concerns. Yeah, he was averaging more like 96 in his second spring start. It was more like 98 in the first one.

And he's one of those guys because he doesn't have great shape on his fastball. The difference between 96 and 98 might really matter for Roki Sasaki. I think you're right. And there's some fear there for me, to be honest. But hey, life's a roller coaster, you know. You got to feel alive. He will make you do that. Speaking of, Jacob de Grom goes with the very next pick.

And that's one that, you know, he usually goes 40, 50 picks earlier than that in a lot of drafts. And I don't even think that's a scoring format thing here. You know, it's just he barely pitched last year. The projections are always. he's going to be low if he stays healthy though he's going to he's going to blow out any reasonable projection um even though we know they're going to limit his innings he's probably not going to throw more than 140 or so but they could be really really good innings brent rooker goes next hunter green tanner byby a little bit of a forgotten guy but rock solid with room to grow if he makes a step forward

cow raleigh mike trout another one if you want to feel alive he's going to be one of the best hitters in baseball as long as he's out there. And if it's, if it's 30 games, that's probably not going to work out for you. If it's 130 games, that's going to be a great pick. Yeah, that's all it comes down to. We got Jazz Chisholm, first pick of the ninth round, Ian Hap. Brandon Nimmo could be a great pick for this format if he's healthy. It's just the foot and the knee.

I know our Scott White, no real concerns about the injury. He'll take any dip. No dip here. What do you think of Brandon Nimmo? Boy, I think that planter fasciitis, man, that feels like the kind of thing that's going to be managed all year. That doesn't go away. So I have my concerns. And Brandon Nimmo is one of my favorites.

He's a guy I typically end up with because he just has upside. I love guys that draw walks, control strikes on Nemo, another guy that does a really good job of that top of a decent order. But man, if he's not going to be running with that foot, I think that does ding his value quite a bit. Live podcasting, folks. All right. On mute, do you think James Wood is a value at 100 or do you think that's a reach? I believe I have James Wood. This will be the first league I don't have him in.

So in this format, it's tougher because he is going to swing and miss a lot. Yeah. But the upside of that Washington outfield with Wood and Cruz, I think those two kids could both be first second round picks next year. Yeah, no, I fully agree. I'm way in on Cruz. He's going a lot later than Wood because he showed a little less at the Major League level. But, you know, the thing about Wood that you have to keep in mind for points leagues, we talked about this in the head-to-head points mock that we did earlier, but he is

for as much as he's going to swing and miss and as much of a free swinger as he appears to be. He was actually really patient last year. He walked 39 times in 79 games. That's an 80-walk pace. I like, I like James Wood getting 79 games last year because I can just double his numbers and it makes it really easy to do a full season projection. It was like 28 Steve. heels, 18 home runs, 39 walks. If he just does that, you're probably good with him as the 100th pick, let alone the growth that we're projecting for him. And obviously, I mean, you're talking, I think it was 95th percentile,

average exit velocity, something like that. He hit the ball super hard. The way I look at it is he was so totally non-optimized as a rookie. Like hit the ball on the ground, did not pull. pull the ball. I think he had two or three pulled balls in the air the entire season. I think two of them were home runs. And it's just the fact that he held his own while being not at all optimized, it's just, man, what if it clicks? Well, yeah, I think that's the thing with Wood, right? I mean, you expect more than 20 homers. I know just doubling the stats gets you to 18.

I expect 25. I think there's got to be the first thing for young players, they don't want to strike out a lot. Well, they do work on meeting the ball, hitting it on the ground, and, you know, the organization fed into that with him. I think they'll let the leash out a little bit this year for him. Yeah. And elite athlete, I mean, pound for pound, maybe one of the best athletes in baseball. You know, he's massive, but he was like 81st percent on sprint speed. We had Sandy Alcantara go off the board after him at 101. Hunter Brown. Junkhoo Lee could be one of those Luisirai's, uh, Stephen, Kwan types. He's going to hit either lead off or third for the Giants. So there should be really good

counting stat opportunities there. If he hits 285 with 15 homers this season, I really wouldn't be surprised. It could be a very useful player. And I'm about to auto pick again, but I made it. I had this is, I had to turn the sound off. So I'm not getting those notifications. Otherwise, it'll come through every time. And I did auto pick Nolan Aronado in the previous round. Don't love that. Although So his swing speed is up four miles per hour this spring. We know that if he, he's got that lift and pull swing like Issa Paredes. And if he can get back just a little bit of that quality of contact, he's not that far removed from 27, 28 homers.

I can see the power there. I just, I question, I still feel like his whole Colorado tenure has continued to inflate his value because people remember that so vividly. Yeah. Yeah, he, once he moved over to St. Louis, it was the batting average collapsed. He's been like a 260 hitter at best there, but the power was still there the first couple of years. So I'm hoping, I mean, now that I drafted him, I'm certainly hoping for 24 homers, 25 homers. You can get that. Yeah, I wasn't planning on it. After him, jerks and pro far, say a Suzuki, Christian Yellage, coming back from the back injury, I mean,

betting on a 32, 33 year old coming off back surgery doesn't feel like a great bet, but he was an MVP caliber player last year. He was a first round caliber hitter when he was on the field. Are you drafting Christian Yelch at all? Yeah, I am. If you follow Will Carroll at all, I know Will a little bit. And he feels like these dyskeptomies, they do work for these elite athletes a little more than they work for like the general sedentary public like here.

So I do have some faith. Yelich says he feels better than he's felt in a long time. You take that with a grain of salt, but I do, based on Will's discussion of it, I really feel like this could be a successful recovery period for him from that back that is chronic. Yeah, I mean, it's been an issue really for like four or five years for him. And he finally had that great surgery.

Yeah. Salvador Perez was the last pick of the ninth round. We are making good time. we might have to we might have to kill some time after this draft just to just to get frank and scott back in the room we got spencer schwellenbach the first pick of round 10 jack flaredy who do you prefer out of those two i actually prefer swellenbach but they're both excellent and i feel like they both dropped quite a bit yeah i i feel like flaredy might be getting a little bit uh unfairly dinged because we had the Yankees turning down the trade at the deadline because of concerns about

his back. Then the weird free agency, there was just no talk about him for so long. He ends up resigning in Detroit where he revitalized his career last year. And he got this, he got Frankie Montas money. Like that was so weird after how good Jack Flaherty was last season. Yeah. So like, I don't know. I get it that the market is skeptical of.

him but I love the landing spot in Detroit. I think the pitching coach there, Chris, I can't remember his name, but he's done really good work the last few years and it's a great ballpark if nothing else. CJ Abrams, next pick, he's one of those guys that really gets hurt by this format. He just the play discipline's not great, doesn't walk. But even then, 321 points last year, that's fine. That's useful and if you think that there's room to grow you know he was really good in the first half was pulling the ball hitting it with power in the in the air couldn't keep it up but if he can do that for a full year i do think there's a lot of upside there grayson rodriguez what's your your concern level with him coming off this elbow injury we're at defcon five yeah a couple of my best friends are

big orio's fans that grew up in baltimore and we talk probably every week and the one guy is just like you know, I think, I think the season's over already because he, he just doesn't think Grayson's even going to put up 10 starts. I, I hope that's not the case. He was one of my favorite breakout picks before all this. And then it just does feel a little bit like Cal Bradyish last year. Yeah. Where he, his was an elbow strain. Like, they, they knew there was damage to the ligament.

That is not the case for Grayson Rodriguez by, by all occasions. There's no, like, structural damage that they found when they looked into it. But it did get the cortisone shot. And it just, it doesn't feel like it's going to go well. I know Scott's a little less concerned than I am, but I've moved Grayson Rodriguez outside of my top 200. I can't, I can't bring myself to draft him unless it's a big discount. I think I took him like 175 in the head-to-head points league where pitchers, especially, you know, riskier pitchers get pushed up because it's a shallower format.

but yeah that that one concerns me a lot i did take dylan cruz as we were talking about james wood a little while ago i i think if you look at the skill set the skill indicators for um dylan cruz and wyatt langford they look like pretty similar players um lankford better and obviously we had that huge september to to point to and say ha concrete evidence that he's really good Cruz didn't have that. He only had the one month at the major league level, though. And I thought the plate discipline was good. He just needs to elevate the ball and hit the ball a little more consistently.

But where are you at on Cruz? Yeah, I think you're right. And people forget that, you know, we have this little bit of data that we saw at the major league level. He came into the year with less than 160 professional plate appearances. And at the end of the year, he's at the majors. So, you know, talk about a learning curve. I thought it was pretty difficult for him. And he, it was disappointing, but he handled himself okay.

I didn't think he looked overmatched. So the skill sets there. I feel like, you know, first full season as a player, there'll probably be some growing pains still. But it's undeniable, the talent level and the upside there. All right, Yon, Duran is the next pick, 114 overall. And then the name that everybody in the chat was yelling about for, it seemed like 20 minutes straight people were telling us to take Junior Kamenara.

And he finally goes off the board at 115. relative to where he goes in pretty much every other draft, that's a big discount. And I know ESPN's a different scoring format. Maybe that explains the drop. But this is another one where if you're drafting him, you're drafting him expecting him to be better than he was last season. And he was great in the Caribbean series for home runs in the final 22 games, has been good so far in the spring. Are you buying the junior commonero helium? him especially if they give you like 10 points for home run celebrations no doubt about it i love

kids electric i mean i think he's going to be a fantastic hitter i just don't know if it's going to be this season but i'd be willing to take especially at that price i'd be willing to take the gamble he reminds me that the comp i've gone with is uh like marcel ozuna where early on in his career it was obvious that the tools were there and he just there were some inconsistencies in his swing he didn't elevate as much as you want he didn't hit he hit a lot of of fly balls to the power alleys. And it was like, man, once he fine-tunes that a little bit, that, that's what Commonero reminded me of where he might hit a lot of loud outs.

But if he figures it out even a little bit, we're talking about a potential four-category superstar here. There won't be any steals, but in this format, that doesn't matter. And the plate discipline should be fine if he hits. Christopher Sanchez, the next pick, Kodi Isanga, Yandi Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Teoska Hernandez. you have i'm pretty concerned about robert swarez where are you on him yeah i'm with you i am very concerned um i i somehow end up with them because i typically am punting saves and then tried to scrap

them together at the end so he's one of those guys that has that drops a lot uh but they have a lot of options there so i don't think they're going to be really slow to put the hook on him so speak. Yeah, I, that's the problem is he's so fastball dependent that if there's any drop off in the effectiveness of that pitch and then they have, uh, Estrada, I think is the, the seventh inning guy and Jason Adam in the eighth. Those are supposed to really, really good closer caliber relievers. So I think, uh, I think there is some risk there. Starting off round 11, a guy that the FBT crew, we all love Boba Chet. He's falling too far.

Has not been as good of a points league player as you would think because there's not a lot of walks. But do you think this is a fine value form of first pick of the 11th round? Yeah, I think it's good enough. Okay. Jordan Westberg, another one, if he takes that step forward, everyone's expecting, it's going to be a steal. It's just the walk rate was very low for him. but what do you think about Jordan Westberg? I actually love Jordan Westberg.

My only hang up there is the number of mouths to feed in the Oriole field, and that didn't really clear itself up much over the winter like I thought it might. So I feel like they are committed to him, and they, you know, they may bounce him back in between second and third, but moving the fences in should help him, but it also helps one of his direct competitors and Kobe Mayo, maybe even a little bit more. So I worry a little bit about whether he's going to be more of a 450

that bad guy than a 550 to 600 at back guy. But I think talent is good. I don't worry about that. Yeah, he is expected to start at third base. He's got the ability to work at second base as well. So if he's hitting and Jackson Holiday isn't, hey, we can send Jackson Holiday back down. Kobe Mayo comes up. Jordan Westberg, congratulations, your second baseman again.

Yep. But there is some concern because they do have so many options. and they have arguably the top third base prospect in baseball, that if you do the opposite, if Westberg's not hitting, Holiday is and Mayo forces the issue, there is some risk there. He's like a top 70 pick now, though.

And that, it's where I've got him ranked, but I used to, I used to be able to wait a little bit relative to my ranking when he was going in like the 90 to 100 range. And now there is no discount on Jordan Westberg. He was the 122nd pick in this one, but in a lot of roto drafts, especially he goes a lot higher than that.

He's probably a much better roto than points player. We got Nico Horner after that, Zander Bogartz, Riley Green. Spencer Strider, it sounds like he might get into a grapefruit league game here in the final 10 days or so spring training. And if he looks like himself, if he's pumping 98-mile-hour fastballs past people, that price is going to skyrocket, right? Yeah. And the rumor is that that's how he looks in backfield stuff or whatever.

So I kind of expect it. I have been pushing him up my own draft rankings too. So I'm leaning toward it being a clean bill of health for him. Another guy who is absolutely skyrocketing is Wilson Contreras. Not in this draft, only 127, but one catcher leagues. You tend to see less of a premium. NFBC leagues. I think he's inside the top 65 now on average in the month of March.

I saw him going fifth or sixth, probably a month and a half ago, among catchers. And all of a sudden, he's the clear third choice for people. So I'm just curious as to what they're seeing that I'm not. And I'm no one that took him here. But I just felt like he had dropped enough that it was time. Absolutely. I went with Kevin Gosman, who I really can't figure out. His fastball velocity is up.

The splitter movement is all weird this spring. Doesn't look like the same guy. Wonder if he can still be effective. I was talking to Enos, the other day, just asking him his thoughts about Gosman on Blue Sky. And he said, you know, the splitter movement being down, it's getting a lot less drop on the pitch.

It could be a concern, but the added velocity could help make up for that. So he still seems mostly in on Gosman. Gosman, the stuff plus metrics really like what he's done this spring. So I'm hedging my bets. He was someone I was kind of high on. I'll draft him if he falls a little bit in this format. And he's my number five SP here, or number five pitcher here.

So a decent value there. Brandon Fott, Randy, Rosa Rainer, Tanner Scott. Lawrence Butler, another one goes way earlier than this. And that's a, this team trash pandas just took Lawrence Butler and O'Neill Cruz back to back. In round 11 and 12. Yeah, round 11 and 12. Those are fourth and fifth round picks. in your roto leagues. Do you think those are good values here?

Boy, I mean, there is just so much in the way of problematic contact rate for both of them that I think they're probably appropriately valued here for this format, but super exciting players, both of them, they're joy to watch. Yeah, and, you know, O'Neill Cruz, there are big holes in his swing. His plate discipline isn't as bad as you think. It's, it's, him and L.E. Daly Cruz are both kind of similar, where it's not the swing decisions that are a problem. It's the swing.

Like they can, they'll pick the right pitches to swing at. They're not going to hit or swing at pitches outside of the zone too often. It's just they've got big holes in their swing because they're so big because the levers are so long. And it's just it's hard for them to make consistent contact. We've got after them, Jared Jones, Lordus Guerrille, Mason win. I went with Matt McLean. That's the second time today that I've picked Matt McLean. he is a bust pick for me this season but yeah i'm why do you think that i'm kind of the outlier

where like i like him around a hundred or later in roto draft especially but for me there's a couple things one is just we have a really small sample size of him hitting at an elite level if you look at his minor league track record at double a he hit like 230 the the power and speed were there but the batting average is really low then he's just bonkers in AAA. Before he got called up, he had like a 1080 OPS or something at AAA. He was a huge.

Then he has that awesome 2023 season. But if you look under the hood, there's some pretty bad plate discipline in there. The quality of contact is more good than even very good. It's like 58 percentile hard hit rates and average exit velocity. Playing in that home park, maybe that doesn't matter, right? maybe he's a 25 homer guy regardless.

But then it's two straight season-ending injuries. And that's where usually at the NFBC, if you've ever been on the IL, just an immediate three round drop in price. We just, we will, we will never touch you if you've even, if you stubbed your toe once, where we're terrified of injuries. And then with Matt McLean,

he has a season-ending oblique injury in September of 2023, okay, that's not a huge deal, except last spring, that was still an issue. He was delayed at the beginning of last spring because of that oblique from September. And then obviously he has the shoulder and rib injuries last year and he doesn't play. I just, if I felt more sure that he was going to be an impact bat, I could overlook the injuries. Or if the injuries weren't there, I could overlook my concerns about his bat. when it's both, that's where it's like, I got to pump the brakes a little bit, push him outside of the top 100, which just means I'm never going to draft him at this point.

Right. Okay. That makes sense. I love McLean this year. I mean, 2020 guy as much as he's dropping. Yeah. You know, he's a 2020 guy in what, like 90 or 100 games two years ago. So I just see the upside from the Roto League standpoint.

But yeah, all those concerns that you're bringing up are totally legitimate, of course. Yeah. I it's one of the ones where I'm like am I am I out of touch yeah like yeah like because I everybody loves him so much and I'm like I can't quite get there and then I I don't love being that far out on on a limb on it so it could be wrong and look I'm willing to draft him if the price is right and it was 137th here so so I'll take that after him you took Lars Neupbar is this the year does it finally happen? to be because I have been like five leagues. I feel like out of all those guys that seem sort of, you know, prospecty or post-type in the Cargill outfield, he's the one that I think has the best skill set. Yeah. Doesn't have the power of Jordan Walker, but it doesn't have the speed of Victor Scott,

but I think he's just a well-rounded, good professional hitter kind of a guy. Yeah, he's like a B-plus at everything. And it's just a question of one, really, it's staying healthy. because it feels very much like early career Tommy fam where you could really see man this guy is so talented and he just can't I don't even want to say can't get out of his own way he just can't stay on the field as consistently as we'd want and that was that was the issue with fam but once he figured it out you know he ended up having some really good season so I could see that with Lars Neupar as well he's a little bit older but they still seem to like him uh Brian Wu a personal favorite of mine Adoles Garcia coming back from that oblique he did d h i think on wednesday so we seem like we're in good shape there kbert ruiz makes a lot of contact decent starting catcher you got to get one uh i love jeffman i think he's going to be a superstar closer if he stays healthy carlos radan good team i i think he's i think he's okay i i want him to be i want to get like that san francisco outcome again and i just don't

think we're going to but i i think he's fine um andrews munoz it's just can we just get let him get 35 saves that's that that's the only problem with andres munoz is they just don't give him the full-time closer role and i think he's as nasty as anyone in that mariner's bullpen um and they play a lot of close games with a poor offense and great starting pitching yep that that'll help. Felix Bautista, that's another one that a little bit of a mystery box, but if the stuff gets back to where it wasn't 2023, he was the best pitcher in the world on a burning basis. There was nobody like him. We had Bouten Francis, Carlos Correa. I was I was circling Carlos Correa. When I took Matt McLean, it was either Carlos Correa or Matt McLean. I think with Correa, I think the season he had

last year, I know the injuries were a problem, but he kind of proved to me that as long as he's on the field, he's going to be productive. And in a shallower format like this, I get it in a 15 teamer being out on him. He drops to like 240 in NFBC. I think that's one of the most obvious screaming values of the year. But I get it. It's harder to replace guys in that format. You don't have IL spots.

In a shallow league like this, I will take Carlos Correa every single time, except when I took Matt McLean ahead of him, I guess. Xavier Edwards, Robbie Ray, who I put. pushed up the draft board in a huge way. I think on our podcast the other day, Nick Pollock said he's one of his Syung favorites in the NL if he stays healthy. So really like that one. And I'm about to time out again.

I'll take Gabrielle Moreno, who's having a really nice spring hitting the ball hard. Maybe there's some breakout potential there. Tristan Kossis, you went with Paul Goldschmidt. Are you expecting a bounce back from Paul Goldschman? Maybe we can call it a dead count, dead. cat bounce from public i hope he's not a dead cat yet but uh i was kind of forecasting it but jumping into that lineup uh and really kind of a friendlier park i think even for right-handed hitter uh i kind of like it i like what i've seen from him this spring i think he seems motivated

um yeah the k numbers are a little bit alarming for this particular format but i just thought the upside was nice and i am a yankee guy just played the cubs shirt so um i i kind of like golds for this year i think he could easily not get 100 runs in that lineup Yeah, no, I mean, if he, you know, the strikeout rate was alarmingly high in the first half of last season. If he can keep it in the normal bad range, like it was in the second half, it was more like 25%. And his OPS was in the high 700s. If he can do that, that's going to be a fine pick, especially batting behind Aaron Judge. I'm going to drive in a lot of runs there.

Yeah. I went with Jonathan India, one of my favorite picks in a points league. He walked 80 times last year. I think he's going to score 90 plus runs at the top of that Royals lineup. There's going to be a lot of doubles and triples, which is going to help in a points league in a way it won't in Roto. So I think Jonathan India is a good value. Gavin Williams, one of the biggest risers this spring.

People love what he's doing. Big fastball getting a ton of, he had like, he had like seven, eight wiffs with his fastball alone in a recent start. He's looked really good. Shane McClanahan, kind of a mystery box. But hey, he's going a couple rounds behind Spencer Strider. He's going after Sandy Alcantra, I believe. That'll play.

There's some risk there. But he looked really good. What are those other guys are not? That's true. Yeah. He looked really good in his only official spring start. He pitched in a minor league game today. And by all accounts was very good.

We had Glaber Torres. I'm out on Glaber Torres this year. I hate the move to Detroit. Yeah. Yeah. He was supported by a lot of the council. counting stats that he got from a good lineup. Not that the Tigers lineup is horrible,

but it's enough of a downgrade there where I think that you need to bump him down. Especially, that's just like, Yankee Stadium is not, Yankee Stadium is a, hi puppy, Yankee Stadium is a little bit of a little league park for left-handed batters, but it plays pretty deep in left center. So it's not quite Comerica,

but it's not as hitter friendly as the reputored. suggest necessarily. But yeah, I just, I think that's, I'm not even sure I'd take him inside the top 200 in a Roto League. And I don't think I've drafted him at all this year. So out on Glaver Torres. Let's do some more catching up. Matt Chapman. David Bednar, J.T. Roamuto, I think the bounce back potential is underrated a little bit for him there. So I like the value. Nick Povetta landing in San Diego, I think that's a pretty good spot to maybe five. finally get that ERA below four for the first time in his career, because believe it or not, as much as we've talked about Nick Povetta, has never had an ERA starting with any number

other than four in his career. Crazy. Spencer Steer, I took Gabriel Moreno. You went with Justin Martinez. The upside there is super high if he's the closer in Arizona, right? I watched him. We were there for the last weekend series in Phoenix last year, and I watched him make people look silly.

And I was like, wow, this kid is really, really good. and multiple pitches too he's impressive i can't believe they're going to go with puck as the closer he's just so flammable i would prefer martinez i think he'll end up with the job he hit like 103 in a spring outing earlier um so just that that turbo sinker is really tough to hit rinaldo lopez the opposite direction his velocity has been down this spring i'm a little concerned about that one uh you say kukuchi continues to tinker he's got a new i think sweeper this spring that he's working on, Brent and Doyle, just not his format, but at 165, that's probably okay. Mitch Keller, Alec Berlison, and Austin Wells. Austin Wells might lead off against

righties for the Yankees. That's, that's, that's interesting. He's doing that, but he's been doing it all spring. Yeah. And we look up and down the lineup, like, who are you going to choose instead? It's the island of misfit toys with that lineup. So, yeah, I get it. I get what they're doing. I kind of I kind of think like Austin wells last year I think had the sixth best ex-wobah of any catcher so like there there is the potential for him to be an impact bat especially at catcher if you're going to be a platoon bat that's not a problem most catchers don't play every day anyway so I'll I'll take in a roto league hey if he doesn't play against any lefties that probably means his batting average is going to be pretty good too so I actually don't hate that either at a position where outside of the top five or six guys, nobody really plays every day anyway. We are in the second to last round. And Bryson Stott was the first pick at second base.

That's one that if, you know, he dealt with an elbow injury last year. If he's healthy, you know, we could see a bounce back in that batting average, you know, maybe 15 homers. They worry about the playing time against lefties, but that could be okay. We had Jason Adam go after that.

we talked about those non-closing elite relievers could have a little extra value in this league. Jason Adam got to 299 points last year. That's actually not a bad number. And if he gets pushed into that closer's role or he stays as a middle reliever, you're going to get either saves or holds from him. So that'll work in this format. Mikel Garcia after that, Todge Bradley, what do you think about the raised pitchers? That's been a big topic of discussion this spring with the,

move to George M. Steinbrenner Field. It's just a much tougher place to pitch. Are you out on the the raise pitchers? I'm not because for me personally, their coaching staff trumps a park move. I just feel like the raise is anyone better at developing pitching than they are. I mean, yeah, they get them hurt now and then. But, you know, the the maximization of talent seems to be excellent from that organization. So I'm willing to lean on that. Yeah, Bradley, it's super hit or miss. When he's on, he looks like an ace. And when he's off, he gets absolutely crushed. But there's no doubting.

There's upside there. Andreas Jimenez, the next pick, Taylor Ward, kind of like the oatmeal version of Brian Reynolds. Just like an even more boring version of the boring guy. But you look up the end of the season and Taylor Ward's usually like a top 30 outfielder. You took Luis Garcia in a points league. Are you okay? Do you expect him to play every day?

I do expect him to play every day. I think that he feels like, to me, one of their core three or four hitters that they're going to be leaning on. And he made huge strides last year. People get tired of hearing the name, Louis Garcia, has been five years. You know, we finally saw a little jump. He's still only 24. Yeah, he's young. So, you know, the exit velocity jump was nice.

He's getting up towards the average range. The speed was pleasant, surprise. I didn't expect that much from him. And he's got a, he's a really good contact hitter. So I think he has a potential to be a five-category guy for that. yeah no that's that's fair i'm i'm concerned about the playing time but if they do play him every day you're talking about 25 25 pretty easily for him so yeah that's um that's okay i love the uh i took zach efflin love the pick next time up cam smith it's 177 that's too early for cam smith he's

the astro's top third base prospect but in this format we're not drafting a bench because We got a, we're drafting an NFBC team in 15 minutes as the next part of our draft. So that's, this is exhausting. We got like four hours left of this. But yeah, Cam Smith, they're going to play him in right field in a spring game. There's a big opening there. And it sounds like they are looking for, they are just hoping he doesn't give them a reason not to promote him, I think. So they are very excited.

There could be big upside there. I thought I hit draft, but I didn't. I took McKenzie Gore with my last pick, finish out my pitching staff. Let's catch up. We are about eight picks behind. Renaud Blanco, that's fine. Clay Holmes. Are you in on Clay Holmes?

Boy, I don't want to be, but he's looked so good this spring. I just, I have so many memories of Clay Holmes. And if you think that he's not going to crack under pressure, you're crazy. Hey, maybe, maybe there's less pressure in the first inning. That could very well be. And he has looked brilliant. at the sprint. Yeah, the control has been a little shaky at times, but that new changeup looks awesome. He's got a full six pitch arsenal now. I came in concerned because he was a sinker,

slider sweeper, and that was all he threw last year. And that's a great way to get right. He's out, but lefties are going to punish you, and he's always had big reverse or platoon splits. Now he's got that cutter. He's got the four seamer. He's got the changeup that looks awesome. Clay Holmes, it's getting hard not to be excited about him this spring. Do you worry about him being stretched out enough to go, you know, 130, 140 innings? That I think is, it's probably the ceiling, right? 140, 145 innings. But there was the, he fractured his elbow a couple of year, like three or four years ago,

pitching, which sounds like a horrific injury to go through. But he's been pretty healthy otherwise. And he made, like he pitched the whole season last year. You know, it wasn't like he pitched for two. two months and then we'll shut down or anything. So I do think 140 really good innings could absolutely be within the realm of possibility. Let's talk through the final round. We got about 13 minutes until our next one. I think Frank's going to join us shortly. Tanner Halk, Nick Castellanos, Mark Vientos. I mean, I know it's a points league, but that

there's nothing but upside if he's going to last that long in a points league. Brady Singer, McKenzie Gore, you went with Brandon Woodruff, just throw a dart and let's see what happens, right? Apparently he was hitting like 93, 94. Oh, yeah, I think he's back. Yeah. Yeah. It's a tough injury that he's coming back from, but it's the last pick in this draft, 16th round.

In a 30-round draft, he can probably be your last pick, too, where he's going in a lot. So I think throwing a dart there, there are a lot of pitchers worth getting excited about in late rounds. we've talked about a ton of them on the podcast, Ryan Weathers, Gavin Williams, although he's moving up. But if a lot of those guys are off the board, throw a dart at Brandon Woodruff. Let's see if, you know, he starts in mid-April and looks like himself. I'm very interested to see that.

Then we had Shay Langalears, Walker Bueller, another one, I don't know, throw a dart. Let's see. Shane Boz, JJ Bladay, AJ Puck. So we got both of those Diamondbacks. start or closer candidates picked in this one and the very last pick we're going to throw a dart it's jackson job i mean the stuff looks amazing and then every start this spring it's like why aren't you getting whiffs why aren't you getting strikeouts why aren't you better are you giving up home runs jackson jove y k a two home runs today it's like every every single like stuff plus metric every

graphic that gets thrown up about him is it looks like Jackson Job is going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. And then the results, even last year at AA, it was like a 25% strikeout rate, just disappointing, 12% walk rate. ERA was around two. It was great, but it's just like, is he going to be the guy we want him to be? If not, why? Why does the, do the results not quite match the stuff? I'm hoping that it's just, hey, he's working. on stuff this spring and it'll be fine when the games matter. But I wish I could be a little more sure that he was going to be great. I think I might actually prefer Reese Olson right now. He looks really good. His velocity's up this spring. The changeup and slider last year were both like 45%

with rate pitches. There is room for him to be very good. Frank, join us. You can take us out and take us into the next track.