Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨MOOKIE BETTS TRADE! And We Talk Steals! (02/04 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 5, 2020

All angles of the Mookie Betts trade. Biggest Fantasy winner (2:40), if Betts should move down at all in the rankings (6:08), biggest Fantasy loser (12:00), the impact on Kenta Maeda (17:25) and Brusdar Graterol (22:22) ... Let's talk steals (26:00)! A listener proposes a different way to draft steals and we tell you how we feel about it. Then Scott gets philosophical about stolen bases and gets into how his strategy is evolving (34:30) ... Scott explains his Eloy Jimenez ranking (37:50) and we wonder if Manny Machado can return to greatness (42:42) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. Dodgers and six. I don't know who they're going to play, but they're going to win the World Series.

They're going to win in six games. It's over, Scott. It is over. Yeah, maybe. I hadn't even thought about the regular baseball angle here. My head is still spinning from all the fantasy implications of tonight's blockbuster. And then the supplemental trade that followed, the Dodgers making a couple moves. Gosh, I'm still just trying to take it all in.

I'm speechless, Adam. Yeah, I ask people for mookie bets headlines. And I think Chris might have the best one. Who wants a mookie? that they weren't, you know, it wasn't the easiest, like, headline to come up with. There were some good ones. Maybe I'll share them with you,

but right now I'm going to tweet out the story that Chris just posted. It is 10.20 p.m. Eastern, and the bets trade went down about a half hour ago, but the details were still spilling out. So please check out Chris's write-up. Scott and I are going to talk about that. We're also going to talk about stolen bases.

We got an email about a bunch of players who could steal you 20, 30, 40, 50, bases and we'll talk about them and your email is fantasy baseball at cbsi.com we were going to get to manny machado on yesterday's show and whether or not he could return to greatness but we ran out of time

so let's do that today okay here's the deal it's mooky bets to the dodgers and david price going in that deal as well bets has one year left he's going to make 27 million dollars and then be a free agent price has three years and 96 million dollars left reportedly the red sox are going to

about half of that. Meanwhile, Alex Verdugo, outfielder for the Dodgers, who had a very good rookie year. He's going to the Red Sox. Kent and Maida's going to the Twins. Boston's getting starting pitching prospect, Bruce Star Gratterol.

I believe that's how we pronounce it. I haven't been able to get confirmation on that from Minnesota, Bruce Darradorol. So the Red Sox are getting two young pieces, Gratterol and Verdugo. Twins getting Maida. The Angels are going to get Juck Peterson from the Dodgers for infielder Luis Renhifo.

Okay, biggest fantasy winner, Scott. I think the biggest fantasy winner is somebody you didn't even name. And that's Gavin Lux. Now, I know we got to do some bending and twisting to come up with that. But just stick with me here, all right? It actually is part of that Peterson deal. Peterson going to, well, actually, the combination of Peterson and Verdugo, two outfield possibilities for the Dodgers.

In Peterson's case, an outfield likelihood, are now out of the picture. That frees up Cody Bellinger. They're going to need him in the outfield, right? He's now a full-time outfielder. They're getting Mookie Betts back too, obviously. But I suspect the Dodgers outfield is typically going to line up better. That's in right, Cody Bellinger and center and AJ Pollack in left field, which means first base, there's an opening that goes to Max Muncie, which means second base for sure goes to Gavin Lux, unless he falls flat on his face this spring. And that is reason to be excited, given how big of a prospect Gavin Lux is.

So that's probably the biggest winner. I think Alex Verdugo is right there with him in terms of going from a very crowded situation to now it looks like he has a free path here to every day. At bats for the first time with the Red Sox, obviously, where he's still going to be in a strong lineup, down bets, but he still has Rafael Devers,

Andrew Bogart's, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Ben and Tendi, depending on how much we believe in him. They're all part of that lineup still. Alex Verdugo, very good contact. hitter, whose power ceiling is a bit unknown still, but 20 plus home runs in this environment seems perfectly possible. If he's batting leadoff in that lineup, he's going to score a ton of runs. And honestly, he's probably the biggest winner just because he wasn't being drafted in even five outfielder leagues, at least 12-team-five outfielder leagues. And now he almost,

for sure, is probably going to be drafted in three outfielder leagues, too. So let's go, let's say Alex Verdugo is number one, Gavin Lux is number two. Verdugo hit 294 with 12 home runs in 106 games, and six of his 12 home runs came in an 18-game stretch. The other six came in 88 games. But, yeah, he doesn't have much of a track record because he's very young and, you know, good prospect. Him batting lead-off for the Red Sox would be interesting.

Raster Resource has him batting lead-off. I think maybe Ben Intendi could fill that role. He could, yeah. Yeah. I mean, Devers, I think, was hitting second much of last year. And, well, Verdugo's left-handed hitter, too. So never mind, scratch that point. I was thinking maybe they wouldn't want to go lefty, lefty.

But Verdugo is it worst going to bat six. He might bet first. He might bet second. I like it. It's difficult to say at this point. But he's going to be part of the middle of that, the top or the middle of that. that lineup. Yeah, and Chris talked yesterday about the difference between Fenway Park and Petco.

If Betts have gotten traded to the Padres, this is a better destination than that. Berdugo was better at home. Yeah, well, right. Honestly, I think the Betts move, it's a huge deal for Dodgers and Red Sox fan, of course, but I think from a fantasy perspective, it's one of the least interesting parts of this. Well, let's talk about it here. I mean, I think let's not bury the lead. Okay, so Mookie Betts, who last year was a top five outfielder and the number

number seven hitter in points leagues, number 13 in Roto. And a down year, he was the number 13 hitter in Roto. He's always going to be just mega awesome. We did it in points leagues. We did an AL-only mock draft today at 8 o'clock p.m. About an hour and a half before the trade. Good planning. Yeah, right?

I blame myself. I was sitting there. I had the fifth or the sixth pick and I was like, why is Mookie Betts still there? Am I really going to get Mookie Bess? I was like, oh, wait a second. Don't draft Mookie Bets. He's going to be in the NL soon. Yeah.

Yeah, but in points he's amazing. He's amazing. I don't know if we're just going to redo that draft because obviously there's no Jack Peterson in there and no. No Maeda. Verdugo. Yeah. I don't know if we're just going to put a disclaimer on it or redo it.

It didn't take that long to do, but it takes a lot to get people together, I guess. We'll have to look into that. Yeah, it was a quick draft. So anyway, with bets, we know. that in a down year he's a top 13 hitter in Roto, top seven in points. I guess technically in 2017 he was 10th and points 17th in Roto hitter, not outfielder. In a good year, he's the number one hitter in fantasy, 2016, 2018. But we also know he's been better at home.

Sure. Particularly with batting average. If you maybe want to draw a comparison to Manny Machado, who got traded to. the Dodgers in 2018 and he had an 825 OPS with the Dodgers, which is very good, but not really anything close to what he did in his last four seasons at Candum Yards. 915 OPS 884, 894, 1139, then got traded to the Dodgers and it was 825. So you know what, Scott? I'll say it. I think Buckey Betts is going to have worse numbers with the Dodgers than he would with the Red Sox than he

did with the Red Sox. Yeah, I don't know about that. I don't know about that. Dodger Stadium is pretty fair. This isn't Petco Park. He's going to. It's not like, it's not, well, Fenway's not exactly. Finway's gets overstated at the kind of park it is for hitters. And besides that, Mani Machado, I think, is a rare instance of, hey, look, every year this guy's numbers, road numbers are worse. And then he goes to a different park.

And hey, it looks just like his road numbers. And I don't feel like that happens very often. He's going to obviously a stacked lineup again Where we would expect him to bat between number one and number three So with the Padres we were worried about him going to a worse supporting cast and a Significantly worse venue and both of those bullets are dodged now Maybe Maybe the expectations drop a slight amount

But he's still the fifth hitter off the board for me in either format and ultimately whether he lives up to that or not is going to be a matter of how often he runs which maybe will be less with the Dodgers I mean they're not a team that's particularly

aggressive on the base paths but it's it's just a wild it's just wild speculation I feel like applying that to Muky Betts projection they're probably just going to let him be Mooky Betts and mooky bets as we know is a five category stud or at least contributor and I think he'll remain such with the Dodgers. Going into a contract here as well.

The Dodgers have had a great team for several years in a row, obviously. I mean, they're consistently great, but I'm just, I'm looking at this now, so I hope I didn't mess up. I don't think they have scored as many runs as the Red Sox in any of the last four years. The last four years is when Muky Betts really became Moogie Betts. and that's going to happen when you have a pitcher in your lineup. If he's batting leadoff, maybe the RBI's come down. Because I guess I'd want to take a look at that,

you know, lead off hitters in the NL versus lead off hitters in the AO. But I don't think the Dodgers offense is great as it is. Well, I don't know. Man, it's pretty damn good right now, huh? But, yeah, you're picking them to win the World Series. And you probably should. Well, they're going to lead the, I would imagine they'll lead the National League in runs. But how are they going to measure up to?

to a great Red Sox offense that would have Mokey Betts. No, D.H. Yeah, that's a tough standard. Yeah. So like I said, the Red Sox have scored more runs than the Dodgers for straight years at least. And last year was close, though. Last year, the Red Sox were fourth in scoring. And the Dodgers were fifth in scoring. They were the number one team in the NL. When Yankees, Twins, Astros, Red Sox, 15 runs behind the Red Sox were the Dodgers. All right, so Scott made his point clear. Number five hit her off the board, Mookie Beetz. would you take a pitcher before Mookie Betz?

I might in a points league. Garrett Cole would be the only one. As of right this moment, I'm inclined to stick with bets at number four, Cole at number five, and then Acuna is number six. And a points league, obviously, Acuna is higher. And five by five where those steals are so important. So wait, if Acuna is one of the hitters ahead of Betts and Roto, who's the hitter ahead of bets in points?

If it's not, is there a different hitter? No, no, there's not a different hitter. He's fourth, he's my number four hitter in points. And number five in Roto? And number five in Roto? Betts is, yeah. Okay. So it's Trout, Bellinger.

Who am I missing? Yellich. Ah, yes, that guy. Not in that order necessarily, but those are the hitters, yeah. Right. Okay. And then how about biggest loser in this deal? Big, well, there's some other winners I want to get to.

Yeah, for sure. We will. We'll cover every angle of it, I promise. Okay. The biggest loser? It's hard. I haven't actually thought of it. Okay, so the biggest loser is probably Red Sox fans. No, I actually think if you were buying into the premise that trading bets was the right idea

because they weren't going to be able to resign him anyway or weren't willing to resign him at what he was asking for, they did pretty well. last year of a guy's contract to get two high-end prospects. I know if Redugo's graduated from prospect status, but it was recently that he was a high-end prospect, and he's done fine in the time he's seen in the majors before, nothing to really lower his stock. So that's him in Gratterol. That's a pretty nice return for the Red Sox.

I guess if there was a loser, it would be... Are we including the Angels portion of the deal with Jack Peterson moving? Sure. Why not? I worry about Tommy Lestella and David Fletcher's playing time with Jock Peterson going there. Obviously, they're capable of playing the positions that Peterson isn't, but Anthony Rendon obviously is locked down at third. So it's really just second base. Lestella was in line to play a lot of first base.

David Fletcher looked like he was going to get some of the bats in the outfield. Jack Peterson's going to clutter. Add some clutter to that first base outfield mix that might, push them out and I don't know who loses the most I mean maybe Lestella hardly plays at all maybe Fletcher goes to just a super utility role where he's subbing for everybody

and those are kind of fringy mixed league guys anyway but definitely makes me think twice about drafting them at the end of a deep mixed league draft Peterson I'm just looking I mean they pretty much sat them against lefties I don't really see why that would change

he's not you shouldn't start him against lefties so yeah he could platoon there for the angels um i don't know maybe a loser's david price just because we know the dodgers usually pretty deep in arms and not shy to put a pitcher on the iL yeah that's true that's a good point

and they were taking him mostly as a salary dump situation but i mean price was okay for most of last year and i think going to the NL obviously helps his chances of being okay again. Oh, you know what I wanted to look up and I didn't look up is

Mooky Betts because here, okay, here's an issue for bets. It's not only the ballpark of Fenway to the Dodger to Dodger Stadium, but you are now losing Yankee Stadium,

Camden Yards, Rogers Center. Hitting in the ALEs is awesome. There's only one bad part. park. Now you've got Arizona with a humidor. I don't know, what is that, like a neutral park? Yeah, it's neutral.

You got the worst park in baseball in San Francisco. Yeah. You got San Diego. It's worse for lefties than righties. You do have nine games in Colorado, which is nice. Yeah, that's nice. So that's another part, another angle of it. And I wanted to look up his numbers at every AL East ballpark.

But look, the facts are just I love hitters in the American League East, unless one that play half their home games in Tampa Bay. It's just a great division. Is there another hitter you would consider sliding ahead of bets beyond the five we already talked about at the top there? I don't think so. But he's one of the five. Certainly not in a points league

because his plate discipline is so good and so valuable. Yeah. And if he falls short in Homer's, he already hits a lot of doubles too. So yeah. I guess in a roto league, I would probably lean Garrett Cole. over bets.

That's not a hitter though. No, no, no, I'm just thinking, but that, but I don't think I would have done that if you were still on the Red Sox. Okay. Is there another hitter? No, I don't think so, because then you're talking Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Nolan Aronado, and no, I would say. Yeah, that's the thing.

I mean, it's, it's, it's, it may be hurts Betts's ceiling and floor a little bit, but it's like, those five were just so clearly a class of their own that, the chance of getting real contributions in all five categories you can't pass it up Dave Richard has a headline for us The price is wrong

Betts and he put Happy Gilmore punching Bobbaker So that was that's not bad The price for bets may cause you for Dugo That's not bad That's pretty good I did it all for the Mookie getting a lot of that, hold on to your bets.

And I'll see if I have any more. Let the mookie win. He bets your bottom dollar. The Dodgers couldn't have Maida a better deal at a lower price. That's a very in-depth one there. So let's go through the rest of it, Scott. Kent and Maeda, go. I think he's probably the third biggest winner in this deal

because the Dodgers have always held him back. They've held him back by start in terms of how, deep they were willing to let him pitch into games and notoriously they would shut him down in mid-August send him to the bullpen because they didn't want him to meet certain salary escalators for both innings pitched and for games started and I think the twins pitching needs are too great

for them to worry about that stuff I mean they gave up a high-end prospect of bruisedar graderol for just Kent and Maeda I was trying to do some math here sometimes all the details of a contract. All the finer details are hard to find online and I didn't have a lot of time before the podcast. But from what I could tell, even if Maeda gets all of the benefits from pitching as many starts and innings as he can, he's still going to be less than 15 million.

That's going to be his salary. And the twins were in on every big free agent pitcher that I'm aware of. Obviously, they ended up making more than that, the most that they could possibly pay Maeda. So I think for a high-end pitcher like Maeda has the potential to be, they would be willing to go that far. It always just seemed like a Dodgers

decision to me. The innings, Maeda averaged only 84 pitches a start last year. So clearly they weren't pushing them very hard. And he's a lot of times with pitchers, you see their stats the third time through the lineup and

there's this huge jump. Well, A, it is worse the third time through the lineup, too, but he's still respectable. I mean, it's normal to be worse the third time through the lineup. But that didn't seem like a problem, the reason the Dodgers were limiting him from start to start. So I feel like he is able to be an innings eater for the twins. And if he's that same guy, but now he's eating innings,

I mean, that completely changes his value. I just don't understand why he's a 4ERA guy, you know? Like, he's a little homer prone. I feel like he should be better. He's a really good strikeout pitcher. But at the end of the season, you know, he's a higher ERA guy. And typically three of his last, three of his four seasons, my eight has had a good whip, you know, like a solid whip.

One year he had a bad whip. But, you know, he doesn't have a terrible control. But last couple of years, 3.1, 3.0 walks per night, not great. I don't understand why he's not a better pitcher. His ERAs have been 348, 422, 381, and. 440 last year. He hasn't been a four-year-a-a-a-guy every year. But, you know, high-threes, low-fours.

And it might lean more toward the four range pitching in the AL. And if he is going deeper into games, obviously that's going to mean a time through the lineup where he's not quite as good. So I would imagine another ERA around four is likely. but if it comes with a good strikeout total and a low whip, I mean, in this environment, that's basically what Lance Lynn was last year, right? I mean, it's still very useful pitcher. Let me ask you this, does this bother you with Kent and Maeda?

Career at home, 323 ERA, career on the road, 454 ERA. Not really. No, I think that's probably just, one of those things that happens. I mean, he's going to be facing a lot of bad lineups in the AL Central, right? Which might include Cleveland, by the way. Yeah, oh, that's great.

Yeah. Al Central is a great place to pitch. I think we saw that last year. Yeah, and if it was, if Dodger Stadium was more extreme than it is, it would give me some pause, but it's normal to have better numbers at home for everybody. and yeah, I'm not that worried about it.

And not only that, not only is the AAL Central a great place to pitch, you don't have to face the twins if you're Maida. I mean, they had to score the second most runs in baseball last year, second or third. I forgot what I had just said. All right, so here's where he's kind of going in ADP. Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Andrew Heaney, Kenta, Maeda. Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Andrew Heaney, Kenta, Maeda.

I definitely move him ahead of Heaney. Luke Weaver obviously showed some high-end potential two last year before he got hurt I don't think I would change him that much relative to ADP but I know in my own personal rankings I have to move made up a lot okay so Bruce Dargraderol go well the twins were basically saying they were going to use them out of the bullpen this year that that wasn't the long-term plan, but that's how they wanted to use him for now. Obviously, he got his feet wet as a reliever last year. The Red Sox rotation without David Price, it looks like Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and then what you got? Nathan Avaldi, Martin Perez. It's got to be pretty

easy for Bruce Dark Routerol to break in there. And he has, um, really, not only is he, you know, just like a hard thrower who can miss some bats, but he has really, really, really strong ground ball tendencies. He seems like a pitcher who's well adapted for the modern game. And, you know, what he was doing in the minors last year before he missed some time with an injury,

and that's kind of why he came back as a reliever because they didn't have time to rebuild his innings. But, yeah, he was looking like he was ready to break through, and now might get the chance to do that this year. I think stock is up for him in the immediate future. Yeah. Would you be drafting Bruce Dar Graderol in a 12-team league? Points League, yes.

Sparp there, yeah, I would do that. Late, but yeah, in that format I would draft him. Would you rather have Brendan McKay or Bruce Darradoral? I think I would rather have Graterall because it's not like McKay's being handed a spot either. There's some rotation clutter there for the raise. Michael Kopeck for Graterall. Um, I'd be inclined today to say graderol, though if, you know, spring is happening and it's becoming apparent that the Red Sox aren't giving him an honest spot chance to win a spot in the rotation. Then maybe I hedge there because I do think Kopex upsides higher, but we don't really know what his timetable is coming back from Tommy John surgery.

According to average draft position, Scott, Corey Seeger is going only five picks ahead of Gavin Look. How do you feel about that? My rankings are probably similar, though. It bothers me for Seeger, but shortstop is just so much more abundant than second base that you could understand why that would be. Okay. Are we done or anything else? Oh, man, are we done?

Are we ever done, Adam? 25 minutes on trade's pretty good. I'm inclined to say no, we're not done, but I'm struggling to think of the angle we missed here. Let's do David Price or. David Price or Frankie Montas. I would say, oh, definitely Frankie Montas. Sorry, I was still thinking about if we're missing something.

Definitely Frankie Montas. Don't take my hesitation as a side that I'm not confident in that choice. David Price or Robbie Ray. Robbie... I don't really like Robbie Ray. I think I might go David Price there. All right, last one. David Price or Mike Minor?

Mike Miner. Okay. We are done. Let's move on. Email of the day, number one, is from Kevin in Detroit, Michigan. Scott, let's talk about steals for a little while. I was looking at people to take in this year's draft

based on your input and was wondering if this would be a good strategy. I'm in a 10-team 6-by-6 categories league where OBP and quality starts are added. I'm trying to target four of the following guys for my source of steals. Ooh, that's four of these guys. There are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

Oscar Mercado, Tommy Edmund, Kavin Bigeo, Byron Buxton, Garrett Hampson, Victor Robles, and Malick Smith. Mercado, Edmund,

Biggio, Buxton, Hampston, Robles, Malik Smith. In this 10-team six-by-six categories league, Kevin wants to target four of them. Would that be enough, or should I try going after someone like Trey Turner, Whitmeryfield, or Mondesie

with a couple of these guys? It would be enough in a 10-team league, absolutely. It would be enough. You do put less pressure on yourself later on if you'd grab Trey Turner early, certainly, and probably won't need as many of those guys. And other people are going to be trying to grab these guys, too. So it might be difficult to get four.

If you were asking me which I prefer for steals, I think Victor Robles is obviously the safest bet of them. I like Garrett Hampson and Tommy Edmund to get at least 20, if not 30. and fourth I would probably say Cabin Bigio because he's going to be the most helpful all around so those would probably be the four I'd aim for though I don't know how many lineup spots you have

and if you get all four of those guys it might be limiting your team's power ceiling too much I think it's a mistake and here's the other thing this is important okay this is six by six league with on base percentage so steals are not you had even one more category steals become a lot less important

yes um and obp obviously is becoming much more important so first of all all of these guys hamston roblis roblis stole 28 bases and 37 attempts in 155 games boston who you know you're looking at probably 30 steals

if he plays a full season based on what he's done in his last few seasons uh cabin bizio tommy emin oscar micada malick smith is the outlier Malick Smith is the guy who could win you the category by himself. If he stays in the lineup. Not win you the category, but yes, he has the highest steel ceiling. That is probably all he does.

And he has to stay in the lineup as I think you were winding up to say. Yes, but he stole 46 bases in 134 games last season. Malick Smith stole 40 bases in 141 the year before. He could be among the league leaders blowing away the competition in steals. The other guy's 20 to 30 steals, you know. So you got to make sure they're good hitters. Yeah. Now, I think Hampson and Edmund are good hitters.

I just don't know that they're the kind of hitters that are going to also give you 20 home runs. They might give you more like 12 to 15. So that, and Bizio could give you a lot of home runs. Vigio could conceivably hit 30 home runs. And he's going to give you OBP. I mean, I like Bizio a lot in this format when you add on base percentage that you also have batting average. Right. So I think what I would do, I want to just go for Malick Smith and take my lumps everywhere else.

I would probably just aim for three of the four I gave you. And I would probably skip Robloz just because the upcharge will be more on him. And I'd aim to get all of Edmund, Hampson, and Bissio. But that is in an ideal world where I can just assume they're going to be there for me. Other people, like I said, are going to be going after them for steals too. So you have to keep that in mind. I don't mind Malik Smith. It seems like you really don't like him.

He got the motive. He's barely hanging on to a job right now. He was on any team other than the Mariners. Yeah, their outfield's not good. Well, they have some young guys coming up. It wouldn't take much for him to lose his job. I think there's a scenario by which he bounces back in batting average and becomes an asset in that category again.

But it's certainly not one I'm counting on. He's not that far off from Billy Hamilton, who used to go in like the fifth round. And I always hated it. Yeah, he was probably overdrafted. But right now, Malick Smith's going 157th overall. So there's big upside if he stays in the lineup. And with Hanager out to begin the year,

it'd be shocking if Malick Smith didn't open in the lineup, right? Yeah, and I would... He's going to get a chance. I don't know about shocking, but I would be surprised, yeah. Okay. But these are, you know, this is a good list of players. that can steal you 20 to 30 bases, maybe better. And yeah, how many do you want?

Well, make sure they're good hitters, you know, especially in six by six. Mercado, Edmund, Biggio, Buxton, Hampson, Robles and Malick Smith. And Robles is someone I really wanted to talk about because he had such a quiet year. I feel like we never talked about him. And he wasn't very good, Scott, Victor Robles, but still very young. And I just want to get the full numbers up. He batted 255 with 17 home runs and 28 steals. Yeah, I don't know.

He batted toward the bottom of the order, which never helps. He stunk against lefties. But he's a righty, which didn't make any sense. I don't know. Like, does Victor Robles have breakout potential? And I think it's funny that he's going earlier this year than he did last year. And he didn't really do anything to support that. Well, he didn't do anything except proved he could hold down a major league job and that he would run enough to be in clear asset in that ever so scarce category.

I think what you're going to find at him, because I know you are kind of just getting back into swing of things with baseball, is that anytime there's a guy who can steal bases, you're going to think to yourself, wow, he's going a lot earlier than he should because there's just a lot of stolen base. derangement syndrome, I'm going to call it, going around because the scarcity there is so palpable. But I, as somebody who was dismissing it early on, I've now drafted enough roto teams that I'm kind of like, yeah, yeah, I probably need to move up all my steel guys as painful as it is because I don't think they're very good. It's just not something you can afford to go without.

Is 28 steals enough to warrant, you know, Let me just look up Robles' average draft position. Obviously, you know, things have changed. Well, he's going earlier than Hansel Robles. 75th overall, Victor Robles. So that's ahead of Max Muncie, Gary Sanchez, Bobichette, Jose Ibrahim. We are not talking about superstars. That makes you mad.

It makes me mad. I don't like hearing that. Sounds wrong. What? He's going too early? He's going ahead of those guys. Yeah, we are talking about big upside. You're right.

He wasn't very good last year. He made some. weak contact too. So it's not like you can look at the underlying skills and say, ah, here's how it's all going to change for Victor Robles. But he gave you steals without killing you in anything else, except maybe, I mean, he didn't kill you in batting average. He gave you 17 homers, didn't have many,

65 RBI is not bad for a steel source primarily. Yeah, he was the number 34 outfielder in points, number 29 in Roto, which doesn't sound that bad. but when you play 155 games, you'd like to be a little bit better than just top 30. And there is still upside, obviously. He was one of the very tip-top prospects working in his way up the minor league ladder. And just because he didn't impact the ball very well in his first year in the majors, it doesn't mean it's never going to happen for him.

I just obviously like to see actual evidence of something before I assume a guy's going to give it to me over a full season. Cool. All right. So that's Victor Roblo. and do you want to talk real quick about how you've adjusted your roto drafts in terms of steals? Well, I kind of just did.

I haven't... I know you said you're moving them up, but I guess... Right. I haven't hammered down specifics very well yet. It's going to take a more complete look at the rankings than I've had time to do yet to figure out how I want to adjust for the stolen bases and starting pitchers also, which I've decided I, despite my sincerest efforts to move them all up, I'm not satisfied with how high they are relative to, to hitters, because I find myself wanting to get more and more of them every draft I do.

So they're all going to have to move up. I'm just saying, and I know this, like this is reinforced to me every roto draft I do. that there isn't going to be a steals bargain for you. It's just not going to happen. You are going to have to reach for one. And that shows in the ADP. It needs to be baked into my rankings better or else people who go into a draft holding my rankings in their hand

are going to end up missing out on stolen bases. Okay. Malik Smith, by the way, he's your bargain. So, you know, Scott, I think a few years ago, You used to say, well, instead of getting a guy like Billy Hamilton, I'd rather get, you know, five guys that are going to steal, I don't know, 15 to 25 bases or something. I don't know if that's really realistic anymore, you know? Oh, it's realistic.

Is it? Because I know that. I mean, maybe not five. The emailer just sent a whole list of them. But I just don't see people rostering that many of those players. They're just not good enough. Well, those aren't the only ones. Oh, they're good enough.

For you to have four of them on your team. I don't know. In a league with a roto lineup. I don't know. Mercado, Edmund, Biggio, Buxton, Hampson, Robles, Malick Smith. I don't think I want four of those guys on my team, especially in a 10-team league. Like, you are sacrificing way too much power production. You need to get some steals earlier in the draft, too, is the thing.

Oh, yeah, for sure. I am all about now. In fact, maybe in a roto league, I just need to do it and make Trey Turner my number six hitter after this five we were talking about at the top of the show. because it just feels like such a relief to get those steals, more or less, you know, take you care of that early in the draft. It's a commitment, obviously, but it's a player who's proven several times over now.

He's worthy of it. So there's plenty of power to be found later. I think I may need to go ahead and make that specific change in my roto rankings. And I may be going even, I don't even, even think that's the industry consensus. So I may be going above and beyond to get Turner specifically because I recognize that it's harder to get a handful of Steel's guys than ever before like you're saying. But at the same time, I don't want to devote a roster spot to him, Alex Smith, particularly if it's not a five outfielder league. All righty. Email of the day

number two is from Ian. Why does Scott hate Eloy Jimenez? Looks like his average draft position is around 67 on various sites, but Scott has him at 115. We'd love some commentary on this as Eloy is a player I'm debating in a keeper decision. Well, keeper's decision is going to change the equation, obviously, because Aloi Jimenez was a very high-end prospect who had a great rookie season, and that's somebody, depending on how many keepers your league has, somebody you might want to attach to your team for a long time. But if we're talking about in a redraft sense, which is what my rankings are for, there are just enough outfielders who I think performed by a significant margin more than him last year, that that's as high

as I can justify putting him. I'm ranking him above where the numbers last year say he should be, because I'm looking at the second half numbers and counting on him to maybe not sustain that completely, but be better in his second year. I just can't. There's a point where I can't I can only do that up to a point. And it sounds like the industry as a whole,

maybe is more willing to project for him in that way. But I just don't see the downside to taking any of those hitters, any of those outfielders I rank ahead of him instead. Like who? And we're talking about Eloy Jimenez here. Who are you taking ahead of him

that the industry is not? Well, I have to pull up my room. rankings here. How do you not have your rankings pulled up, Scott? I mean, come on now. I've been talking a lot. I'm not a good multitasker here. Okay, so yeah, Jimenez, I have 28th. I would be okay with moving him ahead of Marcel Ozuna. That was a recent change I made, taking a closer look at Osuna's batted ball profile. He was one of the biggest underachievers last year, so I'm being high on Azuna there. But Trey Mancini was the stud last year. year. Eddie Rosario, very consistently

high end. Max Kepler was a stud last year. Victor Robles, also talked about the steel situation. Tray Mancini, a stud. That's pretty... Who? Mancini, a stud? He was a stud last year. Look at the numbers. It's absolutely a stud last year. Like three years ago, those are studly numbers. No. Not true.

Pretty good. 291. 35-N-197. 97 RBI 106 runs. crappy plate discipline, one steal. Pretty good though. Pretty damn good. Decent plate discipline. All right. He improved his plate discipline for previous years, among other things.

143 strikeouts is standing out. I understand if, yeah, but 143 strikeouts and 679 plate appearances is a good rate. That's not. I am looking, you know what? There's really, I don't know why I'm arguing with you. Okay, so Mancini, but that's the thing like, like, really. If you don't want to be, if you want to be that guy who says, okay, Tray Mancini's only done it once, I don't believe it, just because of that,

I can buy that argument and I'd be fine ranking Aloi Hemen is there. But then if you get any further past that, Mancini and the two twins outfielders, then you get into like Tommy Fam, Giancarlo Stanton, Jeff McNeil territory. I mean, those guys are outside at the top 20 in the outfield. So it's just, I've been facing this a lot with outfielders and with starting pitchers. Why do you have player X so low? It's just because there are a lot of players to like there, and I'm prioritizing him a little less for some reason.

That's really all it comes down to. It's not meant as, ah, I'm worried about Loy Jimenez or anything like that. It's interesting with Jeff McNeil. I mean, well, the second base eligibility obviously factors in there. It does help, yeah, but three home runs in 2018 for Jeff McNeil. 63 games. In the majors, three home runs. In the minors, a lot of home runs. Yeah, but in the majors, he had three. Okay. I'm just saying, the power didn't come out of nowhere. He was pretty darn good last year. That's 318 and 329 batting average two seasons. Okay,

Eli Jimenez is one thing, you know, got mentioned, OPS by month. Not like he had a consistent season here. OPS by month, 704, 643, gross. 942 in June, 632 in July, 7.7. 61 in August 1093. He had a huge September. Bat at 340 with nine home runs. But boy, he hit a lot of ground balls. 48% ground ball rate. I'd like to see that change.

All right, we're going to move on to the other emails. I guess I keep teasing it. So why don't we talk about it? Mani Machado. We had the segment yesterday. Can these players regain greatness? And I know Chris wanted to talk about Machado. I stole Machado from him.

never brought Machado up. That is such an Azer move. So let's do, and now let's do it today where Chris isn't even on the show. So Machado. Yeah, Machado was the number 10 shortstop in points leagues, number 13 in Roto. He was the number 15 third baseman in points leagues,

number 17 in Roto. And he was putrid at home. Batted 219. Now he hit 15 homers, but a 703 OPS because that batting average and OBP were, We're low. 882 OPS on the road.

I mean, that's really good. So can Manny Machado regain greatness, Scott? I am betting against it. I think too many people are betting on it. I think the numbers just work out so perfectly that we have a pretty good idea what's going on here. And it's totally a venue thing. His career numbers, I'm sorry, I can't break them down any more than this, but his career numbers obviously recognizing that most of his career has come in Baltimore

at home 285 with an 862 OPS on the road 273 with a 778 OPS now normally that doesn't raise any red flags but it was so consistent over the course of his career and then he gets to the Dodgers in 2018 first time in a new venue 273 with an 825 OPS pretty much the road numbers right and then he gets to the Padres, 256 with the 796 OPS. Now, even worse, but obviously closer to the road end of the spectrum there, and then when you take into account

what his numbers actually were at Peco Park, his guy seems like a very, his production is highly venue dependent. And when you look at his batted ball profile, it's easy to understand why. A lot of fly balls. Not a, the line drive rate is startling, low for a player we've always regarded as high end and it's been very consistently so in the

15 to 20 range. That means he's going to have a low batting average out balls in play and 274 last year. Sometimes it's been right around 300 but it hasn't been the normal high batbip that we're used to seeing from a player. So what I'm trying to to say is apart from the home runs, he doesn't get a lot of help in batting average. So if the home runs aren't as high, the batting average very clearly suffers too. And outside of Camden Yards, the home runs haven't been as high. I'm not confident that's going to change. I am confident he'll have better than 219 at home.

He'll probably be a little better than he was last year. But I guess what I'm saying is those numbers from that half season with the Dodgers, the 270-ish batting average with the low 800s OPS. That's more what I'm expecting from Machado. He's dual eligible, but it's the two deepest positions in fantasy where there are plenty of other high-end alternatives. But you know it was weird, though? What?

So he had an 825 OPS with the Dodgers 273 batting average. But at Dodgers Stadium, he batted 279 with seven homers in 29 games. He had an 874 OPS at Dodger Stadium. So it was... It's a pretty good home run park Dodger Stadium. That's what I'm... Okay. That's why I'm not that worried about Mooky Betts.

Yeah. I mean, you could slice and dice it up in ways to make... To convince yourself something else is going on. But we have a year and a half data of him outside of Camden Yards. And it was all a lot worse than him inside Campton Yards, which is also what the Home Away Split showed during his career at Camden Yards.

He also had a pretty bad 2017. People sort of forget about that. He was the number three shortstop that year, but that was a bad year for shortstops. He had almost identical numbers. 259 that year with 33 homers. This year he hit 256 with 32 homers. You know, runs RBI's deals a little bit different.

But he basically had a 31 game stretch that season with an 1100 OPS and the rest of the time in 2017, Machado just wasn't very good. So it's two out of three years where he hasn't been that good. I think I'm inclined to say that 2017 was just sort of a fluky bad year. And if he'd still were in Baltimore, he'd probably be amazing like he was in 2018. But Scott's right. That's how we were interpreting it at the time. And we were right. We were right. Because he was he was terrific in 2018. But I think Scott's right on the money there. All right, let's read some more emails. Ended up being a mailbag show. Oh, quick, a couple news items. Well,

This is big. Texas signed Greg Bird to a minor league deal. So just watch out. Second chance, Adam. Hey. You're going to buy a Rangers hat? If he makes the team, I'll buy a Rangers hat. And Scott, question for you.

How many days in a row do you think, can you eat leftover food? Like the same meal in consecutive days? Oh, I have a high tolerance for that sort of thing. Yeah. I mean, obviously it would depend on how much I like the food to begin with, but I could go four. I mean, I'm not saying I often do. Tomorrow's going to be four for me. Yeah, but I could.

Yeah, I bought a lot of pizza and wings for the Super Bowl and nobody showed up. Everybody showed up. Yeah, very small party. No, very small party. Cancellations two years in a row. So I knew I was buying too much, but this was extreme. If you lived down here still, I would have invited you over. Oh, thank you.

I would invite you over. It would have just been you and me. Oh, okay. Yeah, so tomorrow I'll be day four. I think I'm pretty much over the wings, but I think I could crush a little bit more pizza. Yeah. Fantasy football. Oh, sorry, fantasy baseball at CBS.

Have you had the meatball ricotta pizza from Anthony's or what? Of course. Yeah, that's what I've done. That's the staple from Anthony. Yeah, that's, I've been three days in a row, very good. That's a rich pizza, though. That might be kind of tough. All right, tomorrow's just going cheese.

Just cheese a lot. Scott, this is Brian from Brooklyn. Can you help me choose two outfielders in a Keep Forever 6x league with Ops? Ramonleurne Luriano, Roberto Ozuna, Kyle Tucker, Joe Adele. All right, can you repeat those names, please, for me? Yes, Brian from Brooklyn. Ramon Loriano, Roberto O'Zuna, Marcelo Zuna, that's what I meant.

Ramon Luriano, Marcelo Zuna, Kyle Tucker, Joe Adel. And how long are we keeping them? Forever. Give me the kids. Adele and Tucker. Okay, Mike in Iowa, a faithful listener. Head to Head Points League. What's going on with Iowa there, Mike,

Geez, not a good day for them. Twelve teams, eight keepers per team with a utility position. Lineups lock weekly. I have the big three from last year, Eloy, Vlad, and Jordan Alvarez, and I would like to keep all three. But my problem is working them into the lineup as I have Bregman at third and Trey Turner at short.

Would I be crazy in a points league contemplating dropping Turner, moving Bregman to short, and opening up third base for Vlad. Oh, well, his other keepers are Acuna, Harper, Josh Bell, and Clevenger. I don't know, maybe you want to drop Josh Bell instead. I don't know. Yeah.

Or Jimenez, right? Jimenez was one of the three. Yeah. Beloy Jimenez. I don't, does he... I can't remember all the keeper details he gave or if he gave them all, but... He didn't.

Eight keepers, but you didn't say you can keep them forever or anything. all so young that I'm not really worried about longevity so much with any of these guys. It would be between Bell and Jimenez, who I dropped. And if you were really tied to Jimenez, Bell seems like a safe choice to drop. Plus, he doesn't have a ton of believers, it seems like. So you may be able to get him back in the draft. It's from Adam Hawkins, 12-team 5-5 league with on-base percentage, 10 keepers with contracts. My current keepers are looking good,

but I have 11 potential keepers. I need to eliminate someone. The most likely candidates to eliminate are Manny Machado, essentially nine-round, ninth-round keeper price, or Lewis Robert, last-round keeper. Machado. Machado, okay. Get them out of there.

From, no name on this one, sorry. 12-te-by-six-six-head-to-head categories league. keep four players at the round they were drafted, maximum three years. I'm keeping Trevor Story and Luis Severino, so pick two from here. Remember, you can keep them for a maximum of three years. Adelberto Mondesie, he was a waiver wire pickup. You got to keep him for the round they were drafted, so that's late. Mondesie, waiver wire for two years left.

Jesus Lazzardo, waiver wire three years left. It's Categories League, by the way. Frankie Montas, waivers, three years left. Brandon Woodruff, 16th, three years left. Kyle Tucker 21st, three years left. And how many am I picking? Two. I am going to pick.

I think because it's a Categories league, you've got to take those steals of Mondesie. And my second pick would be Woodruff. And finally, from Mark in Maine. Hey, Adam slash everyone else. I'm in a 14 team, 9x9, Dynasty Categories League. You can keep anywhere from zero to eight players, no restrictions, no budget, keep them as long as you like. I'm so far keeping Trout, Devers, Alvarez, Meadows, Bichet, and Flaherty.

Now I have to pick two of these five. Cinderguard, Albys, Muncie, Yates, Carasco, Ugh, I hate this. Pick two of Cindergarde, Albys, Muncie, Yates, and Carrasco. I am going to pick zero to eight players, no restrictions, no budget.

So definitely a long-term focus here. I'm going to pick Albies, very young, long future with him at a weak position. And I'm going to pick, I think it's fairly easy, actually. I'm going to pick CinderGard. Albies in Cindergarde.

Perfect. Great show, Scott. Can you believe that the Moogie Betts is on the Dodgers? Could you believe it? I cannot. It's crazy. I can't. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this at him.

Even though I just talked it all out, it still doesn't seem real. Who's going to? I'm probably going to spend the next hour pacing just thinking about it. Who's going to win the World Series? This has got to make the Dodgers the favorites, right? It's got it. I would say so. Yeah.

Yankees Dodgers? That would be Yeah, that would be what I'm thinking. Ratings bonanza. If it happens, I mean, obviously Oh, it's going to happen. The favorites don't always make the World Series. Come on.

They always make the World Series, Scott. Okay, that's Scott White. I'm Adam Azer. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. We'll come back tomorrow with another episode. Actually, it'll be Wednesday, so it's probably today for most of you, with another episode of Fantasy Baseball,

and they'll see it.