Fantasy Baseball Today - Most Overvalued Players According to Average Draft Position (2/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:02 Which players are overvalued according to fantasy pros average draft position? Let's find out next on Fantasy Baseball today in five. Welcome into FBT and Fee-TN-5. As always, make sure to follow and stream us on Spotify. Today is Thursday, February 17th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White, and Scotty recently wrote an article on the site, the most overvalued players, according to ADP.

Starting point is 00:00:25 ADP, and one of the first names on that list, Scottie, is Francisco Lindor at Pick 49.3. Why is Lindor overvalued? Because where he's going. Like it's almost like last year didn't happen. He had 2.30, 20 home runs, 10 steals. I mean, he just, it would be one thing to give him that kind of benefit of the doubt if it was at third base, like a position of real need.

Starting point is 00:00:52 But it's shortstop for him to go 20 spots ahead of Corey Seeger, 40 spots ahead of Carlos Correa, who's, I think is likely to deliver a better batting average and maybe an equal number of home runs. So he's just not getting quite the steals that Lindor is, but 40 picks difference, really. And that's even relying on Lindor to bounce back to some extent. What I think people are not seeing about Lindor's season last year

Starting point is 00:01:24 is that there was a new ball. And he was able to get by with low Babips, high fly ball rate with the previous ball because it led to 30 plus homers a year, right? But with this new ball, if all those fly balls he's hitting are, if more of them are resulting,

Starting point is 00:01:44 if they're not carrying as well, so more of them are resulting in outs, that is going to drag down his batting average. I don't think it'll be as bad as 230 every year. But I'm not counting on 260 necessarily. So I just think there are short steps with

Starting point is 00:02:00 similar or perhaps even more upside who are going much later. All right, let's move over to Randy Rosa Rana, who has an ADP of 58.3 towards the end of the fifth round in a 12-team league. Scott, why do you find yourself fading Randy a Roserena? Yeah, so so much of his stock is dependent on him stealing 20 bases when he only had a success rate of two-thirds on stolen bases last year. So it's not even clear that the rays are going to give him as much of a green light.

Starting point is 00:02:29 and that's kind of like the least questionable part of his profile too because he was one of the biggest overachievers according to stat cast last year he had they they gave him only a 222 xBA only a 369 x lug based on uh based on his quality of contact is bad at ball profile so there just seems to be a ton of downside here um you look at somebody ultra safe like brian reynolds going 40 picks later and again i know there's a steals difference there, but it's not such a significant steel's difference that it's worth taking on extra risk at a much higher cost. The Oreos are pushing the walls back in left field of Camden Yards, but Scott, I know even before that, you were off of Ryan Mountcastle. The ADP is 114.8. Why were you off of him even before this move in Camden Yards? Again, I think people are just giving too much credit to what he actually did, or I guess I should say didn't do last year. He did hit 33 home runs. It's a solid total.

Starting point is 00:03:39 Hunter Renfro hit 31 home runs and is going like 60 picks later. And like his profile seems more sustainable than Mountcastles. Because you look at the battleball profile for Mount Castle, he overperformed his expected slug. he has terrible play discipline he's in a horrible lineup so the runs rbi they weren't there last year they're not going to be there moving forward there there's not much hope for batting average with as much as he was striking out and now as you mentioned they're pushing the walls way back at camden yard specifically in left field and where he hit two thirds of his home runs last year so i was already expecting a decline to like maybe 25 home runs i don't know if he's getting to 20 now and like i said there's not much there to go with the power the Last name on this list is Trent Grisham. He has an ADP of 134.3. Still wound up with 15 homers, 13 steals last year, but definitely was a disappointment, Scott. And even at this lower ADP, you were saying to stay away from Trent Grisham. Yeah, I just don't think there's much power here anymore. He got off to a hot start last year, actually. So it was, things got really ugly,

Starting point is 00:04:51 really fast. And I mentioned a new ball for Francisco Lindor. It's, Grisham is even a clear example of a player who is impacted by it. Only 38th percentile for average exit velocity. He doesn't impact the ball very hard. He doesn't, with the way it carries now, I'm, I'm not sure there's enough over the fence power here to elevate him considering he's kind of marginal everywhere else, too. Like there isn't really a standout skill here. And the power is now below average. So I just don't, I just don't see him as more than a fringy option even in five-by-five leagues. All righty. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Stitcher, your smart speakers or anywhere else

Starting point is 00:05:40 podcasts are found. And thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball today in five. We'll be back again tomorrow morning. Bye-bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Most Overvalued Players According to Average Draft Position (2/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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