Fantasy Baseball Today - Must-Start Woodruff & Waiver Wire THIS OR THAT (7/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 22, 2025

Royce Lewis has flashed over the past couple games (4:04). ... Is Brandon Woodruff back to must-start status (8:56)? ... Shane Baz got clobbered by the White Sox (15:56). ... News (20:55): Tanner Sco...tt left Monday with a forearm injury. ... Let's play a little waiver wire THIS OR THAT (31:00). ... Do any of these pitchers matter (43:35)? ... What are we doing with these frustrating starting pitchers (45:30)? ... These four hitters have really picked things up (54:15). ... Hey, real quick (57:41)! ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:05:16). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome into Fantasy Baseball's Day on Tuesday, July 22nd. I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:00:33 Chris, you're here. Welcome back. We didn't know you be here. I wasn't supposed to be here this week, but plans change, so I'll be here the next couple of nights. Let's go. Let's go. Which is good. I felt weird.
Starting point is 00:00:46 I was going to be off for like 13 straight days off the podcast, and that felt weird. So I'm glad I don't have to deal with that weirdness, you know? Are you counting the weekend when you say 13th straight days? Yeah, it was going to be like 13 straight calendar days. It was like six episodes of the podcast. You're going to make me podcast with just Frank for three straight weeks. Is that what you're saying? Whoa.
Starting point is 00:01:07 What's wrong with that? Geez. All right. Well, I was going to say alone, but then I caught myself and said with Frank. Because obviously you caught yourself and made it. And now you're making it sound like I was. You caught yourself and said. You caught yourself and said.
Starting point is 00:01:23 You had like a person. But you are making me feel like I did just the opposite. Because you caught yourself and said just Frank. I would never. say just Frank. Just Frank as opposed to Frank and also Frank, you are enough. You're putting the emphasis on the wrong word. Thanks guys. Thanks guys. Scott, we'll have a solo Cocoa Bo Friday. You could do it by yourself this week. How about that? You can't win. Language is hard. Anyway, today on the show is Brandon Woodruff just a must-star pitcher again? Waiverwire this or that?
Starting point is 00:01:56 Some fun with arbitrary endpoints and much more. Let's get into the players of the night. That was a great call last week. Red Sox TV on Sadan Rafael's walkoff. A couple of people sent that in, and so I'm happy to work that in. That's a pretty awesome call. Again, if anyone hears great calls anywhere, if you listen to the show,
Starting point is 00:02:21 I mean, tweet them at me, email them in, and we'll try to work that into the player of the night call here up top. But let's begin. Let's start with some good, because Scott has some bad. He wants to talk about. Chris, player of the night. Royce Lewis may not be done
Starting point is 00:02:37 just yet. I mean, all right, he's had two good games in a row. I was going to say, it only took two games. I don't want to, but look, the thing is, with Royce Lewis, everything is small sample sizes, right? It's small sample sizes on small sample sizes all the way down.
Starting point is 00:02:54 So, yeah, he's been pretty bad for the last calendar year. I think it was a 621 OPS was what I saw. That's really bad for a calendar year. It's also only like 400 plate appearances because it's small sample sizes all the way down for Royce Lewis. And now he's had two good games in a row, two homers on Sunday, three for four with a double on Monday against the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:03:18 And the thing for me with Royce Lewis is I get being skeptical that he's as good as he's looked at his best, right? So that makes perfect sense, given the small sample sizes and everything, totally be skeptical of that. But he's down to like 65% roster. or something. And when we're talking about should I add Royce Lewis rather than should I draft
Starting point is 00:03:44 Royce Lewis with a top 100 pick, I think it's a lot easier to just take the good two-game sample size and say, yeah, add Royce Lewis, especially because his quality of contact data actually looks really good over the course of the full season. His expected Wobah for the full season is now 348.
Starting point is 00:04:04 That's exactly what it was in 2023. partially it's because his quality of contact data is not quite as good overall as it was in 2023 but he has cut his strikeout rate down to 14.4%. His expected wobo over his past 100 played appearances is 385. That was before Monday's three hit games. So in any of the leagues where Royce Lewis is available, I think you should just go ahead and add him in pretty much every single one just because we've seen, even if it's just
Starting point is 00:04:36 we've seen what it looks like when he gets hot, there aren't a lot of players that have shown that kind of upside when they get hot like Royce Lewis has. Especially on the waiver wire, right? You're just not going to find players of that talent level available. And we lost a couple more third baseman this past weekend. We spoke about it yesterday.
Starting point is 00:04:55 East Sock Paredes and Alec went on the IL. Obviously Addison Barger, the top replacement. He's already up over 81%. Up to 81% excuse me. Nuelvi-Marte, 74%. I think those two are very clearly ahead of Royce Lewis, but after that, if we're just talking about
Starting point is 00:05:12 taking a shot on upside, then look, I think Royce Lewis is right there. If Royce Lewis is better than those two guys the rest of the way, I wouldn't be even a little bit surprised. And I don't, and look, that's just kind of saying that things happen and there's a wide range
Starting point is 00:05:28 of outcomes with all these players, but like, I would be surprised if Mark Viantos was really good the rest of the way. I would be surprised at least a little bit of like Jorge Polanco was a must start player in all fantasy formats the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if Royce Lewis was. And this is one thing that I want to highlight is three months is a big-ish sample size. It's also not that big of a sample size. And I did some research earlier.
Starting point is 00:05:54 There were 102 players last season who qualified for the batting title in both the first half and the second half of the season. of those 102 players 16 saw their Wobah increased by at least 50 points from the first half to the second half and 18 saw their Wobah decreased by at least 50 points so that means fully a third of the league last season
Starting point is 00:06:19 had a 50 point Woba swing from the first half to the second half that's not like everyone but that's a lot of players that's a really significant portion of the player base that had a wildly different first and second half. And it's just a reminder. And I think it's worth keeping in mind with like Willie Adamas, who's really turned it around
Starting point is 00:06:42 lately and a couple other guys like that where even having three bad months in a row does not mean your next three months are going to be terrible. Sometimes guys just have a bad three months. And it's hard to think about that in the moment. But you do need to remind yourself that even a full sample size. a full season doesn't change a player's talent level, let alone three months. So when you have players like Willie Adamas
Starting point is 00:07:10 or Royce Lewis who have had very, very good production in the past, any signs of life you should be willing to buy into them, I think. My player of the night is before we get to you, Scott, because we'll save the worst for last this time. But Brandon Woodruff from the Brew, Crew, I see you rocking the shirt, Scott. the best record in baseball Milwaukee Brewers right now. Brandon Woodruff turned in another strong start this time at the Mariners,
Starting point is 00:07:39 six shutout innings, two hits, zero walks, five strikeouts, nine whiffs, only 62 pitches. I didn't see any reason why they took him out outside of just, hey, this is his third start back. He hasn't pitched in two years. He's coming back from a shoulder surgery type thing. 62 pitches don't love that in a vacuum, but the fact that he just continues to pitch incredibly well.
Starting point is 00:08:03 I mean, where three starts in with Woodruff, a 165 ERA, a 0.55 whip. He has 23 strikeouts to zero walks over 16 in a third innings, and he's doing that with two to three miles per hour less on his fastball and sinker than the last time we saw him. It doesn't really seem like it matters. So my question to you guys is Brandon Woodruff just a must-start pitcher once again. I wouldn't go as far as must-start.
Starting point is 00:08:30 personally. Are you going to sit him next week, though? I don't know who he's facing. Tell me who he was facing. Would it matter? Yeah. Okay. This was his first start of even five innings?
Starting point is 00:08:42 No. His first start was six innings. His second was four and two-thirds, and then this was six. Okay. He looks like he gets the... He's probably going to be a two-star pitcher later this week, right?
Starting point is 00:08:55 Yeah, he gets the Marlins later this week. He lined up for two starts this week. The nationals next week. Which, you know, if he gets bumped to two starts next week, that that makes an easy call. That happens pretty often. It's been great. And I'm not worried about him throwing 62 pitches since you brought that up.
Starting point is 00:09:14 I think they just took him out because he pitched six innings. And it didn't really matter how many pitches it took. Had a fresh bullpen. I'm actually just seeing right now that Brandon Woodruff's start was cut short by a calf cramp. So not a strain, but a cramp. That was something. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:09:31 I don't know. I've said a lot of wrong things. I'm just going to let Chris talk. So I think it probably can't last. Now, there are different levels to that. He has a 161 ERA right now, I think, 165 ERA. It should go without saying that Brandon Woodruff is not Bob Gibson pitching in the middle of the, you know, year of the pitcher, right? like that goes without saying.
Starting point is 00:10:02 So it's more of a question of, is he a 265 ERA guy? I think almost certainly not. Is he a 325 ERA guy? I'd probably take the over. 365 rest of the way? I could see. That feels okay for Brandon Woodruff
Starting point is 00:10:21 with about a strikeout per inning. And yeah, I think he'll be good moving forward. I don't think. he's going to pitch nearly as well as he has so far. I don't think he's going to pitch as well as he did prior to all the injuries. It's a phenomenal story. I'm having a ton of fun watching him. But even in this start, he had five batted balls allowed with an expected batting average of 500 or better. Two of them were singles. One of them was a 100 mile per hour fly out. And two were like 100 mile per hour line drives
Starting point is 00:10:59 that happen to find gloves. There's probably a little bit of good luck involved here. And that's fine. That's not a knock on him. I think he'll be good moving forward. It's just, do I think he's an ace? No, I don't. I mean, I guess it depends
Starting point is 00:11:15 what your cutoff is for a must-star pitcher. I think he's going to just continue to climb up the rankings at least a little bit further. I had him at SP 53 last week. I think he's, yeah, inside of the top 50, probably somewhere in that, you know, 40 to 45 range. I have a bunch of just frustrated pitchers around there who I'll, we'll talk about later. I would say a top 50 pitcher is a fringe starter, though, not a must start.
Starting point is 00:11:38 Yeah. The guys like Tanner Bybee and Jack Flaherty I have in that range, we'll talk about those guys a little bit later on. And this goes without saying, I don't want anyone to think, oh, man, they're hating on Brandon Woodruff again. But if anybody is valuing Brandon Woodruff like the Brandon Woodruff of old, maybe just poke around and see. Yeah, he's not a, like, he. It should go without saying that he's not a top 15 starting pitcher. But some people might see the name and think, you know? Yeah, I know that there's a lot of reactionary people out there who just bounce back and forth between whatever the most recent thing that has happened.
Starting point is 00:12:13 And so, yeah, you might have an opportunity to really sell around, sell Brandon Woodruff at a huge premium. And you should look into it. Also, I mean, you just got done saying three. What was he said 300 plate appearances isn't that big of a sample? Yeah. Three months isn't that big of a sample. Yeah, whatever number, yeah. This is three starts.
Starting point is 00:12:35 Yeah. And I think back to that stretch Lance McCullors looked like, oh, gosh, this guy, even though he lost so many, so much velocity, he looks like he's going to be just fine. And didn't stay that way. So, you know, I can't predict the future. I mean, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on. I can't predict the future. Like, I want to stress this because a lot of people don't seem to think, they at least seem to, they either think I can predict the future or I think I can predict
Starting point is 00:13:09 the future. No. Or I think I can predict the future. I can't even talk. But they seem to think that. I know I can't. Like, I'm just guessing up here based on available information. And the available information I have is that Brandon Woodruff has looked really good for three starts.
Starting point is 00:13:29 Brandon Woodruff's velocity is down about three miles per hour. Brandon Woodruff is mixing in this cutter. He didn't really throw before. And so what am I supposed to make of that? I make of it. Well, I at least have to be open to the idea that this cutter is going to make it possible for him to exceed with three miles per hour less of velocity. but I need a lot more information to be assured of that. You know, I need a lot more of a sample than three starts to be assured of that.
Starting point is 00:14:00 So I'm not certain. I am open, but I'm not certain. All right. Well, we might be going for our longest podcast in the history of the show tonight, but Scott, your Player of the Night for the wrong reasons. And, you know, let's keep it moving. Because this is a really simple one. I think we all know how we feel about him.
Starting point is 00:14:23 Yeah. Yeah, let's talk about Shane Boz, who had been great for a four-start stretch, 230 ERA, 102-WIP, 9.9K per 9.9. And it coincided with him emphasizing a cutter in this year of the cutter. And it seemed to make his fastball more effective. He seemed like maybe he had turned a corner here. not so good here against the white socks. I think that's the toughest pill to swallow is that it was against the white socks.
Starting point is 00:14:54 He allowed either and runs in four innings. So I could, if I'm doing micro analysis here on Shane Boz, I will tell you he did throw that new cutter 22% of the time. It had only a 78 mile per hour exit velocity against. So really soft contact on that cutter. It seemed like it was effective, pretty effective on its own. So I think what happened, again, this is the micro analysis. I think what happened is that his curveball had four fewer inches of a vertical break.
Starting point is 00:15:26 It just wasn't breaking like it should. And that's his top swing and miss pitch. And so he didn't have a good outing. And, you know, maybe the curve ball has its usual shape next time. And Shane Boz is totally fine. And the cutter is still the game changer. That is the hopeful view. but if I'm looking at it,
Starting point is 00:15:47 if I'm given macro analysis here on Shane Buz, I'm kind of getting the feeling he's the next Sunny Gray and he's just going to be so frustrating analytically for years and years to come. I mean, hopefully he lasts for years and years because Sunny Gray's longevity is not something often repeated by pitchers.
Starting point is 00:16:10 But that is the sense I'm getting because he has had so many like great starts this year. And of course, former top prospect has the pedigree. But then he just mixes in these duds. That has his ERA now at 466, I think you said, Chris. So not a good ERA,
Starting point is 00:16:31 even though we all have a lot of good memories of shame bars this year. So yeah, it's frustrating. We'll see what happens next start with the curveball. I think that'll tell us a lot more. the results relative to how the curveball is working. But right now it's just frustrating. Is Shane Boz still a must roster player? He's 96% rostered on CBS.
Starting point is 00:16:55 I'd stick with them. Yeah. He's shown enough upside that I'm probably not going to chase. I don't know. Like, I don't know. If, like, Brandon Walters out there, I would hope I have someone worse than Shane Boz, or at least someone less interesting than Shane Boz.
Starting point is 00:17:12 but like, who do you feel more confident starting next time around? Well, before this start, I might have sent Shade Bosz the base of the way he was pitching. I had Shane Boss as a must-star two-star pitcher this week. Before we hit our first break, reminder to sign up for the FBT newsletter. If you haven't already, if you're watching on YouTube, scan the QR code.
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Starting point is 00:17:48 after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's take a look at the news and notes and this just happened in one of those late West Coast games, but Tanner Scott left his appearance early with a trainer and appeared to be flexing his left hand.
Starting point is 00:18:04 I haven't seen anything definitive. Probably going to take some time for them to get testing and everything done there. But obviously pretty worrisome injury here for Tanner Scott. Kirby Yates did come in, get the final two outs of the game for the save, although nearly gave up a game-tying home run in the process there to Carlos Correa. Who do you guys think would be next up if this is a potentially long-term injury for Tanner Scott? My guess is that Alex Vescia and Kirby Yates would split save chances. So Yates has been more often
Starting point is 00:18:38 working the seventh, and Vescia is kind of all over the place. But, more often the eighth than Yates. So if you wanted to do that thing, maybe Vessia has the edge. But Dave Roberts is one of the least committed to bullpen rolls. So I think it's, I think it's going to be a lot of mixing and matching. I don't think it's going to be one guy.
Starting point is 00:19:02 Yeah. Yeah. Also worth mentioning that Blake Trin is close to returning as well. He's been rehabbing, has been out for most of the season. But early on, he was getting some saves there in tandem with Tanner Scott. So just another name that could maybe work his way into the mix.
Starting point is 00:19:18 And, you know, kind of jumping to conclusions, maybe Tanner Scott will be perfectly fine and remain the team's closer. But if he has to miss time, those are the likely three that would be next up for the Dodgers. Yordaun Alvarez was clear to begin hitting off a slow toss Monday. He's scheduled to take more swings here on Tuesday. We'll see how his hand and wrist bounce back. Freddie Freeman was back in the lineup after leaving. Sunday with that hit by pitch to his left wrist.
Starting point is 00:19:44 Pete Crow Armstrong was out of the lineup Monday due to a bruised right knee. The Rangers are targeting Wednesday for Nathan Avaldi's next start. He was scratched Sunday with back tightness. Brandon Lau has missed two straight with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Bailey Ober struck out three over four scoreless in his first rehab start at AAA. He got his pitch count up to 50 and Bailey Ober 71% rostered. Scott, I threw a bunch of names at you rehabbing names yesterday. It included Shane Bieber, Spencer Arredgetti,
Starting point is 00:20:18 Luis Heel, and Kyle Braddish. Where would Bailey Ober rank on that list? Well, it just so happens. I was working on IL Stash rankings before the pod, and we'll continue working on them after the pod. So I can tell you exactly. I have Bailey Ober behind Bealee. deeper and Araggetti ahead of heel by one spot and also Braddish.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Where is, since you have those ready and handy, where does Bryce Miller rank on that list? Between heel and Bradish, mostly because Bradditt, Braddish is still a ways away. I mean, he's starting a rehab assignment. What will be a long rehab assignment coming back from Tommy John surgery. Yeah, I think we don't see him until Matt August, but he might be the best. pitcher of that group. I'd still say Beaver, but he's, yeah, I mean, Braddish looked just as good, though. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:20 Going into last year, it was like a top 20, top 20. Well, the little bit of we saw of him last year was the best we'd ever seen of Kyle Brathech, too. Remember, he had like a 34% strikeout rate in like six starts last year. Now, he looked like an ace. It might sound like, okay, why do you have Louise Heel behind Bailey Ober as bad as Bailey Ober's been, but you have him ahead? of Bryce Miller.
Starting point is 00:21:44 Well, I think I don't think the injury that has hindered Bryce Miller this year is getting better. Yeah. I agree with that. Obers potentially could get better. Shane McClanahan is not a lot to make his next rehab appearance.
Starting point is 00:22:02 He threw 10 pitches in a bullpen on Monday and they'll see how he feels on Tuesday. So, you know, his last outing wasn't so good. Apparently gave up a couple of hard hits. I think a couple home runs in that. So they're kind of taking it day by day to see how Shane McClanahan feels moving forward. Grayson Rodriguez is undergoing imaging on his right elbow after feeling discomfort recently. Bryce Miller, who we just mentioned, will throw another live BP on Friday before beginning a rehab assignment.
Starting point is 00:22:29 Dylan Cruz was able to complete a full assortment of baseball activities this weekend and is inching towards a rehab assignment. Anthony Santander is not expected to resume swinging a bat for at least a couple of months. more weeks. He's been out since late May with a left shoulder injury. And I mean, to the Blue Jays credit, right? That's their big offseason acquisition. Yet they're still in first place in the ALEs. So playing great ball right now are the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets were called Francisco Alvarez on Monday. And since going down to AAA, he played 19 games down there. He hit 299 with 11 home runs and a 1233 OPS. Whoa. He returned 11 home runs in 19 games. I saw that in the notes. I I had to go check it on.
Starting point is 00:23:13 Not to say I don't trust Frank. That's just like, that's a bonkers number. I had to make sure. He was destroying the ball. It's true. He went one. Thank you for confirming. One for two with two walks and two runs here on Monday for Alvarez.
Starting point is 00:23:28 27% rostered, definitely worth a look in two catcher leagues. Would you guys rather add Alvarez or Adrian Del Castillo, who was called up by the D-backs this past weekend? there's a part of me that just wants to say Del Castillo just as a mystery box yeah I don't think that's... Isn't Alvarez kind of a mystery box too I can well he's still so young yeah Francisco Avarez is two full years younger
Starting point is 00:23:55 than Adrian Del Castillo so like I acknowledge it's not fair yeah it's just part of me going this again with Francisco Avarez which is not good analysis I will readily admit Well, part of me is going, oh, this again with catchers Because this is this is a moot point in one catcher leagues like
Starting point is 00:24:17 Yeah These guys are way too far down Right Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin Which you know A player with with Francisco Alvarez's pedigree Who just hit 11 homers in 19 games Any other year A catcher does that
Starting point is 00:24:33 And like you're It's a fight to get him But there's just not the same name at the position. It's crazy. Did we have an answer there on Alvarez versus Del Castillo? I said Alvarez. I think it has to be Alvarez, yeah. Yeah, I would go with Alvarez as well. But, you know, it's not really to disparage Del Cascio, very interested in his upside and what he can do as well.
Starting point is 00:24:55 Josh Young was recalled by the Rangers. He was not exactly tearing it up the way Alvarez was at AAA. He went two for three with a walk and hit a home run here in his return. 35% rostered, I think just a name to watch. for now. Josh Young, let's see if he can get hot once again. I will note he did Homer in two of his final three games after before being recalled could have just been they sent him down to work on stuff. They saw enough. But yeah, it's like a 700 OPS or sub 700 OPS so I think we got to see a little more. Rangers reliever Chris Martin was placed on the IL with a left calf train and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Denzel Clark was placed on the I
Starting point is 00:25:38 with a grade two right at Dr. Strain. Shelby Miller scheduled to face live hitters on Tuesday. He's currently on the IL with a forearm injury. And the Cardinals plan to ask Nolan Aronado about his preference if a trade possibility surfaces here for the Cardinals. Let's get into... Can I make one comment on Shelby Miller real quick? Yes.
Starting point is 00:26:01 Because it seemed like this was one of those cases where he gets hurt and everybody's like, okay, here they go. Again, the Diamondbacks are losing a third closer this year to Tommy John's surgery, obviously. It was one of those situations with Shelby Miller. And he actually got dropped in an in-O-only league I'm in. And I picked him up just because I was like, hey, it's not official yet. Who knows? And usually, usually when it's not official yet, we still know, right? And obviously that's what the guy who dropped him was thinking. But it's not official till it's official. And this is a good. example of that because
Starting point is 00:26:39 the Diamondbacks are talking now like yeah we feel like we dodged a bullet they're having Shelby Miller ramp up again in earnest like he's about to come back and close for them look it's possible it's possible the other shoe drops and I guess he still ends up missing
Starting point is 00:26:55 the season but that's not what it's sounding like right now it's sounding like Shelby Miller's going to take over closing for the Diamondbacks still yeah Chris's cat is either a really big fan of Shelby Miller or this is or not not a fan at all. Like, the feeder's going to go off in 35 minutes. We all know that.
Starting point is 00:27:13 We're all aware. Somehow the cat doesn't know and she wants to be let out. And it's like, no, because if I let her out, then the other cat is going to eat everything. And we can't have that because the other cat's, she's bigger. She's a big girl. So maybe we just need to wrap the podcast up within 35 minutes.
Starting point is 00:27:32 I might just have to kick both cats out. If anyone saw me making faces while watching on YouTube here, I did see an update here on Dave Roberts, and it does not sound very good. Apparently, Tanner Scott felt a sting in his forearm. He will get an MRI tomorrow, but is, quote, emotionally not well, according to Dave Roberts, though.
Starting point is 00:27:54 That does not sound great for Tanner Scott. Let's get into Waverwire, this or that? Let's make some decisions here. Drake Baldwin had himself a huge game, three for five with two doubles, six RBI, and last 20 games. He's hitting 297 with four homers, 18 RBI, and OPS over 900. He has started five straight. He's stealing some playing time away from Marcel O'Zuna now, both Baldwin and Sean Murphy are getting in the lineup quite regularly. And Carson Kelly is turning things back on, three for four with his 13th homer.
Starting point is 00:28:32 Last 19 games for him hitting 373, four homers in OPS. up near 1,100. So, in case you need more catchers, who would you rather have? Drake, Baldwin or Carson Kelly? I think definitely, definitely Baldwin. And you're not asking, but also Sean Murphy.
Starting point is 00:28:51 I think this is, again, we don't need more catchers. This is like the least, this year is like the worst time to have this happen. But it does seem like the Braves are going away from OZuna and starting the two catchers, at least for as long as they deserve to both start. I think it could change,
Starting point is 00:29:13 but you watch a Braves game, you see shots of O'Zuna looking forlorn on the bench. Like, I think he knows what's going on here in the last year of his deal. And so, yeah, Baldwin and Murphy, even in one catcher leagues, they both look plenty viable going forward. And it's not that Kelly isn't viable.
Starting point is 00:29:32 I just, if you're asking me, which is most likely to fall off of these three, catchers, it would be Kelly by a lot. Yeah, there have been the last seven games for the Braves now. They have started both catchers and five of them. And it's not like
Starting point is 00:29:48 they're both going to start five out of seven games. If that trend continues, they're both probably going to start six out of seven games. And one of them's going to get the day off when Ozone is in. The other one will get the next time. And if you tell me both Baldwin and Sean Murphy are going to start
Starting point is 00:30:04 85% of the time, of the games the rest of the way. I think they're both top 12 catchers, even in this deeper catcher environment. That's how good I think both of them are. So it's not even a question, Drake Baldwin versus Carson Kelly. Carson Kelly's a fine hot handplay.
Starting point is 00:30:23 I think he's just a hot handplay. Are you guys taking both Braves catchers over Francisco Alvarez, who we just talked about a couple minutes ago? I think I'd probably take Kelly over Alvarez, even though I'd take Alvarez over Del Castillo. So what a fine web we weave. So I think if you're asking me who I'd rather start right now, it's Kelly because he's hot and has been hot multiple times this year.
Starting point is 00:30:47 If you're asking me who I think is more likely to be fantasy relevant in September, it's Alvarez. All right, next up, John Carlo Stanton starting to lock in a little bit here, one for four with his fifth home run. And in July, hitting 318, five homers, 14 RBI, and 1117 OPS has started eight of the past 11 11 games for the I think the playing time will continue to tick up here for Stanton as well. 51% rostered. Scott, we were just talking about him. Marcel Ozuna. Would you drop Ozuna, U-Til for U-Till, to pick up John Carlos Stanton?
Starting point is 00:31:20 I don't think this is a relevant question in many leagues, to be honest. Like, I think 12 teams are less. Neither needs to be rostered at this point. I think 15 teams or more, both need to be rostered. I think Stanton is clearly more usable right now. But if either one, if you're asking me which has the best chance of reclaiming every day at bats and turning into an impact, like a truly impactful bat down the stretch, I would still give that edge to Ozuna, even though. Maybe not on the Braves, though. Maybe not, or maybe.
Starting point is 00:31:58 Yeah. It just, you know, if Murphy gets hurt again or falls into a slump or Ozuna and has a two-homer game in one of his rare. starts. I think, again, I think things could change very quickly there. But, you know, right now stands more usable. Yeah, like I said, I think if either's going, if either's, if either's going to see something happen that turns them into a stud again, it's more likely, Ozuna. All right. Maybe it's the Homer thing, but like when Stan gets locked in, we saw it in the playoffs. I mean, the guy, he can catch fire. So it kind of seems like maybe that's happening right now for him. A couple prospects here. Any interest in stashing either?
Starting point is 00:32:36 of these two, or I guess which one would you rather stash? Matt Shaw, showing some signs of life here, two for four, with his fourth home run, tiny sample, but last four games, he has six hits, two homers, and one steal. And Bryce Matthews, recently called up by the Astros, double dong here on Monday. His first two home runs of his career, also had five RBI, has started five of seven games since being called up.
Starting point is 00:32:59 He has some power, lots of speed, lots of strikeouts. Who would you guys rather stash right now? just for upside, I guess, on the bench. Matt Shaw or Bryce Matthews? I think I'd go with Matthews at this point. I think there's a pretty decent shot. Shaw's not a starter in two weeks. And now there's a pretty decent shot.
Starting point is 00:33:17 Bryce Matthews isn't a starter either. But I'm not writing Matt Shaw off for his career, certainly. But I think we've seen enough, or rather, frankly, haven't seen enough from him to make the call that just he's over-rastered at 46%. I think he'll be a good player in the. the long run, but he has just shown no ability to drive the ball with any kind of force so far. So I'll go with the mystery box with Bryce Matthews, even though I do think Matt Shaw is the better prospect. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:50 I mean, I kind of feel like this is another question that's just not that relevant in any leagues because the leagues that's most relevant are in L and AL only and these guys are in opposite leagues. So 15 team leagues. Scott doesn't like my question. I don't want either of these guys in a 15 team league either because I don't think either. I mean, look, yes, Bryce Matthews had a good day today, two homer game. He still has more strikeouts than hits since being good.
Starting point is 00:34:17 This was a second and third hit. I don't have any confidence that he's going to be useful for the Astros. I think Shaw has shown that he's really not useful, at least as a rookie. And maybe the Cubs get somebody to start over him. him before the deadline. But I don't, I, I, I, if I have either of these on my roster in a 15 team league, they're probably the first player that's being dropped when something more attractive appears. Scott rejects your premise, Frank.
Starting point is 00:34:51 Yeah, I don't know that he's going to like any of these other questions any either, but I'll ask anyway. Next up, Ramon Luriano continues to hit for the Orioles, two for four with his 12th home run. He has started 19 straight. He's 24% rostered. Anhele Martinez of the Guardians is having himself a nice July where he's hitting 297, four homers, one steel, 928 OPS has started 15 straight. So deeper five outfielder league names here, but who would you guys rather have?
Starting point is 00:35:19 Or Chris, maybe who would you rather have, Ramonoreano or Hon. But you go to Chris first. It would be Luriano, I think. Playing time is less assured for him, but he's kind of enjoying a little bit of a resurgia. the past year plus, I guess. He had really solid quality of contact metrics last season. His quality of contact metrics this season have been frankly a lot better than I realized.
Starting point is 00:35:50 So, yeah, I... Just look at the baseline stats for Rovira. He's 280 with an 854 OPS as somebody who's been playing every day for at least two months now, right? Yeah, something like that, yeah. Yeah, that's, yeah. Luriano, in five outfielder leagues,
Starting point is 00:36:09 I think Luriano's more rosterable than Matt Shaw from the previous group. So, yeah, I think pretty clearly Luriano over Anhele Martinez. And two more deep league corner infielder's here. Josh Bell got off to a terrible start. Well, he's picked it up last 42 games. He's hitting 297 with six home runs and an OPS near 850. He's hitting the ball pretty hard during that stretch. Brady House, three for four with a double and his third stolen base.
Starting point is 00:36:39 Deeply corners here. Who would you guys rather have? Josh Bell or his teammate? Brady House. I mean, this is the Josh Bell experience, right? He looks absolutely hopeless for a two-month stretch, then looks really, really good for a month or two. And I'm fine riding the hot hand. I think Brady House has done some interesting stuff.
Starting point is 00:36:59 Like the contact skills have looked pretty good. He's putting the ball in play. his expected batting average is 300. That's kind of all he's doing, though. He's not really hitting for any power. Three stolen bases. That's nice, especially I think he had 12 before being called up. So there is some base stealing ability,
Starting point is 00:37:16 even if the speed itself is not impressive. But I'd rather have Josh Bell. All right. And last name here, know this or that. Just who the heck is this guy? John Rave. Apparently a 27-year-old outfielder for the Royals. Oh, yeah, there you go.
Starting point is 00:37:32 I should have got some music in there. Two for four with his third home run. He also had a huge game on Friday where he hit two home two home runs with four RBI for John Rave. Who is this guy? Does he matter in like the deepest of deep leagues? Sure, A.L. only, fine.
Starting point is 00:37:51 Pick him up, Chris. A.L. Labor. Pick him up. He is currently on a roster. And there are players rostered Nail only leagues that that's not true of. So sure. I can't say that I'm expected. much of anything from him beyond that.
Starting point is 00:38:07 But it would be kind of funny if like the the royals have had all these relatively hyped outfield prospects flop in recent years. I'm including Caglione, at least for now. And then some guy named John Rave shows up out of nowhere and actually provides something
Starting point is 00:38:27 because they have, I want to say I was reading a piece on fan graphs that they've had like, negative four wins above replacement from their corner outfield spots this season which is just a bonkers number so
Starting point is 00:38:42 he's gonna get the opportunity at least just a name in the deepest of leagues let's see where it goes but you know for the past four games at least John Rave is making some noise here with the Royals let's take our final break when we return do any of these waiver wire pitchers matter we'll find out
Starting point is 00:39:01 right after this Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Do any of these Waverwire pitchers matter here from Monday? Walker Bueller, strong start at the Phillies, seven innings two runs with four strikeouts there. Jack Leiter, quality start against the athletics, six innings, two runs, four walks, also seven strikeouts. And Michael McGrady was recalled by the Cardinals, and he pitched very well in Coors Field, seven innings, two runs. Only one strikeout had zero walks in this one. do any of those three names matter?
Starting point is 00:39:33 McGreevy, Jack Leiter, and Walker Bueller. I think the one who matters most is Jack Leiter because he's shown strikeout upside. But I don't know that we're to the point where we feel comfortable putting him in our lineups pretty much ever, even with good matchups. So probably in most 12-team leagues, I would find players I'd rather roster than any of these three.
Starting point is 00:39:58 But I'm keeping the closest die on Leiter. I don't see anything here in Walker Bueller's start. He changed the pitch selection quite a bit. Of course, he's like throwing seven, eight pitches now. So that's kind of true every start when you have that many pitches. But I don't see anything that suggests he's figured out how to succeed. I haven't seen anything from him this season. Only four strikeouts in this start.
Starting point is 00:40:28 And who is the third one? McGreevy, I don't think McGreevy's ever going to be a huge fantasy asset. I think because he has such good ground ball skills, which he hasn't actually shown in the majors this year, but throughout his minor league career in the little bitty pitch last year, he's like an extreme ground ball guy. I think he'll, I think he'll have his share of quality starts in the same way Andre Palante has the share of quality starts. But Andre Palante is also not that big of a deal in fantasy. All right. Well, then let's move on to some other frustrating pitchers. We spoke about Shane Baz earlier today. Jack Flaherty, a rough start at the Pirates.
Starting point is 00:41:04 Supposed to be a good matchup as well. Three innings, six hits, three runs, three walks, six strikeouts through just 62% of his pitches for strikes. It just kind of feels like it's not going to happen this year for Jack Flaherty. He's all the way up to a 477 ERA. And if you dig into the pitches, the specific pitches here, his curveball has been awesome. his fastball and slider have both regressed a ton from where they were last year.
Starting point is 00:41:32 So maybe he could just kind of flip a switch and it can happen. But if he keeps pitching like this, I just don't really see it happening for Jack Flaherty. Yeah, I've probably kept the faith more than any of us, but I think it's time to accept that he's just a guy this season. And I still think there's plenty of upside. It's just he hasn't shown enough of it at any point, really. that I just, I'm not saying I'm dropping him, but... Okay, that's what I was going to ask.
Starting point is 00:42:02 Like, what exactly does just the guy mean? Not a guy that I'm locking in my lineup. Yeah, he kind of feels like a streamer for strikeouts at this point, right now. Yeah, I think that's the best thing you can say, yeah. It's, it's weird because if I told you, uh, Jack Flaherty prior to this start, this star was a bad start against Pittsburgh, obviously only lasted three innings but his previous starts all had seven strikeouts or more all had three earn runs or fewer and then i gave you his overall numbers for those four starts it would not seem to match up that's just kind of like a start in ice his starts in isolation uh have looked you know there there've been a number of ones that oh this pretty good start but then what do they add up to?
Starting point is 00:42:59 It's kind of a bad number. It's just weird how baseball stats work that way because, you know, like the whole idea behind a quality start, six innings three run runs. People will say, oh, how's a 450 ERA a quality start? Well,
Starting point is 00:43:11 because they're not, all the quality starts aren't going to come right up to the very limit of a quality start. You're going to have some one run outings in there. But it just seems like Flaherty, not that he's technically getting quality starts, because they're on the shorter side, but it's all those kinds of starts where it's like three runs
Starting point is 00:43:29 and five and two thirds innings. That doesn't seem like that bad of a start, but if they're all like that and then you have some really bad ones mixed in, it turns out to be a high ERA. All of which is to say, I see a lot of talent here still. Like I was looking,
Starting point is 00:43:45 okay, is he throwing strikes less this year? Yes, but not a lot less. Is he missing bats less this year? Yes, but not a lot less. It's mostly in a slider. The walks are up quite a bit from last year. The walks are up quite a bit, but the overall strike percentage isn't. Or isn't, hasn't fallen as much as you think for as much as the walkway has risen.
Starting point is 00:44:08 So I guess maybe I'm holding out hope for Flaherty, but I don't consider him a must start. As someone who has him in a bunch of spots, it's been a very frustrating experience with Jack Flaherty this year. He's also allowing more fly balls, more hard contact, and as a result, more barrels than ever before. His barrel rate against ranks in the 10th percentile this season. So, I mean, that in conjunction with the walks being up, it's just, yeah, that's how you get
Starting point is 00:44:34 a bad season here out of Jack Flaherty. Another weird start for Tanner, Bybee. But he did battle through it, wound up with the win against the Orioles, seven innings, five runs allowed, only three of those were earned. Four strikeouts to zero walks, had 15 whiffs on 86 pitches. You know, did some good things with the pitch mix here,
Starting point is 00:44:51 you know, faded the fastball a little bit, He used his cutter more. It looked really good for him. He also allowed 10 hard hits. So it's like there's some give and take. There's some good things here from Bybee. There's some bad things here. It's kind of been like his season as well.
Starting point is 00:45:05 Where are we at? Or is it just more of the same Tanner Bybee? I'm not sure what the point of Tanner Bybee is anymore. Like we just haven't seen any kind of upside from him this season. There's been no strikeout upside at all. His best. stretch was he had that 10 strikeout start against the A's back in June, but he also gave up five runs and eight innings in that one.
Starting point is 00:45:31 But he's just shown no upside, very little consistency. And it's just like if he's a 21% strikeout rate guy now, what are we chasing exactly? You know, like at least the past couple of years he'd been like 25, 26% strikeout rate guy. And so it's like, yeah, it comes with a mid three ZRA. but hey, that's a good pitcher overall. Right now it's like, even if he's been a little unlucky to have a 429 ERA or a 427 ERA for the season,
Starting point is 00:46:07 if it's not even close to a strikeout per inning, that just sounds like a guy to me. It's interesting. It's way more than Jack Flaherty even. I would guess I would say, I guess I would say that Tanner Bybee his first two years
Starting point is 00:46:27 were good his first two years everybody was pretty much happy with him and he was really hard to make sense of and so look he was a huge prospect
Starting point is 00:46:39 great minor league track record had a good first two years in the majors that I think both of them got off to rough starts but he really searched at the end at both instances so I just be, I trust Tanner Bybee as a pitcher more than I trust myself as an analysis of a pitcher
Starting point is 00:47:01 of a pitcher who's going poorly. Maybe as a good way of putting it. So like I can't make a strong intellectual case for believing in Tanner Bybee. I just believe in Tanner Bybee. I don't know if that makes sense. I think it makes sense. It's just you haven't convinced me. That's fine.
Starting point is 00:47:19 Yeah, that's fine. Yeah, I mean, you weren't, yeah, you weren't trying to. So, yeah. Yeah. No, I think he's weird. I think weird is the word for Tanner Bivey right now. Well, I'm not sure weird is the word that I would use for Zach Gallen. I think I would just use bad because it was another bad one for Zach Gallant.
Starting point is 00:47:38 Six hitting, six runs, six strikeouts here, 11 hard hits. The curveball was awesome in this one. Maybe he's just a one pitch pitcher at this point because I don't know. know that he has much more to go, like much more to go to outside of this curveball. And even when it's performing well, he has another rough outing. So, I don't know. Maybe he's back to the graveyard, Zach Gallen. I close my eyes only for a moment and the moment's gone.
Starting point is 00:48:09 Scott, where did you have Zach Gallen in your two-star pitcher rankings this week? I think I had him in the second tier, advisable in most cases. I think both of the matchups were pretty good, as I recall. Second one is Texas, maybe. I'm not sure. But anyway, the most discouraging thing about this start for Gallant to me is that it seemed like when he would bounce back with a good start, it's because he threw a lot more strikes.
Starting point is 00:48:42 And he threw a lot more strikes than this one, 69%. It was still awful. It was still awful. and that makes me wonder what it's going to take for him to get back to being reliable and does he really have it in him? I'm skeptical. Might need a change of scenery. That's the biggest thing I can point to is just that the –
Starting point is 00:49:05 I mentioned this last week, I think, but Lance Brasowski brought up a point in one of his newsletters a couple weeks ago about the Diamondbacks just being relatively on the the far end when it comes to pitch development and, you know, getting the most out of their pitchers. And it just kind of feels like he's got to find a new home to unlock something. And maybe it won't happen, right? Maybe it's just he's got a mediocre fastball. He's got a great curveball and he doesn't have anything else consistent enough. That might be the case. But it just, I'd like to see him with a new set of eyes. All right. Let's get into some fun with arbitrary. endpoints here and take a look at four hitters who have really picked things up.
Starting point is 00:49:52 Salvador Perez continues his wake-up call. Two for five with a double-donged four RBI. He has four homers in his past three games. And in July, he's hitting 367 with eight home runs and a 1273 OPS. This is one of the examples of a player underperforming their expected stats all season, and now it's happening. Now things are coming to fruition for Salvador Perez. Taylor Ward last 27 games for him,
Starting point is 00:50:18 295 batting average, five homers, 27 RBI, and OPS over 950 during that stretch. Willie Adomas has really picked things up as well. Last 35 games for him, he's hitting 302 with 10 home runs and OPS near 950. 20% barrel rate over the last 35 games for Adomis.
Starting point is 00:50:38 That is an awesome number for him. And Nick Kurtz, we talk about a lot, but let's talk about him again. two for three with his 19th home run and he has 14 homers since June 15th that is second behind only a Eugenio Suarez during that stretch Suarez has 16 home runs
Starting point is 00:50:58 so Nick Kurtz I don't know maybe just one of the best power hitters in baseball I think he's a stud I mean the fact he's doing this we were promised yeah he's doing this as a rookie and not even like a full season rookie Gosh, is OPS is 975, really? The full OPS 975, that's phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:51:22 Nick Kurt's looking like a stud. Indeed. Salvador Perez, Taylor Ward, I don't think that there's much else on those guys. Ward has been pretty productive all season long. It was just that the batting average was weirdly low for a long time, but he was, he's been among the AL leaders in RBI for a while. 76 is a lot. Yeah, he's 23 homers and 76 RBI in July 22nd.
Starting point is 00:51:48 He's going to have, I mean, probably for a different team, I would guess, within the next nine days. Although with the angels, you can never say for sure that they're going to trade the guys that they should. Right. Especially because they're only like two games below 500 or something. But Adamas, I think, is the one to focus on just because it's another example of what I was talking about earlier with Royce Lewis, where as back, as those first three months were, we have a pretty long track record for Willie Adamas, not being as good as he was last season,
Starting point is 00:52:18 but being a solidly above average starting caliber fantasy option, I never thought he just completely lost that ability, whether it was the pressure of a new contract or a new home, like that stuff's hard, even if we can't quantify it. I'm not at all surprised that Willie Adamas has gotten hot, and I think there's a decent chance that we're going to, get to the end of this season and he's going to have like a 770 OPS overall and finish with
Starting point is 00:52:46 25-ish home runs and it's just going to kind of look like a normal Willie Adama's season. Which probably doesn't make him a top 15 shortstop right now, but is still a viable fantasy option. Oh, Chris, time to let the cats back in. No, they're locked out. This is collective punishment. All right, all right. Fair enough. Hey, real quick, starting pitcher edition. Carlos Rodan, a rough outing here,
Starting point is 00:53:15 struggled with his control. Five walks to four strikeouts over five innings. He threw 62% of his pitches for strikes. He also had some bad defense behind him in this one. And last eight starts now for Rodon. It's not atrocious, but I mean, this is a decent sample size of a 420 ERA, a 127 whip. Walks in hard contact have been a problem. So any concerns here with Carlos Rodon? he hasn't looked right. I'm not saying he's hurt or anything. I think this is just probably rant the normal variance of the Carlos Rodon experience where he just, I don't know, his mechanics get messed up or he's just, he's not throwing strikes consistently enough. But when I've watched him over the past month, that's been the main thing is he's bouncing a lot of pitches.
Starting point is 00:54:06 I think his previous start relieved a lot of my concerns. because that one was awesome, eight shot-down innings with eight strikeouts against the Cubs, no less. This start for Carlos Rodon, if I could do the micro-analysis thing for him, too, he, like, his slider's his best pitch. Like, it's clearly his best pitch. He didn't have it. He didn't have it in this one. He threw it only 17% of the time.
Starting point is 00:54:35 That's about half as much as usual, and it got zero whiffs. So you're not going to get a good Carlos Rodon start when he did. doesn't have that slider. And so, you know, if that becomes a long-term trend, then it's obviously a big problem. But I doubt it will. I think he'll have the slider back next time. And he'll probably be must-start moving forward. You know what it probably was?
Starting point is 00:54:58 He threw 107 pitches, six of them were to lefties. So that probably explains most of the both lower slider usage because he throws a slider a lot. You know, obviously a lot more often to lefties. than righties. That could explain some of it, but yeah, he also just didn't seem to have the feel for it, like Scott said. I'm pretty sure the Blues A's do not strike out against, yeah, they have the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season as well. So they are a tough team for left-handed pitchers to face. And what's crazy, you would think eight starts of a 127 whip, man, you know, that whip must be getting up there.
Starting point is 00:55:37 It is a 105 whip for Carlos Rod on this season. Might just also be some natural regression here for him. He was so good early on in the season there. Kodi Senga struggled against the Angels, three innings, four runs, three walks, five strikeouts through just 53% of his pitches for strikes. Could be shaking off the rust. It's just his second start since returning off the IL for the Mets here. What are your guys' expectations for Kodi Senga rest of season?
Starting point is 00:56:07 350-ish ERA. a whip that probably doesn't help you very much. A whip that hurts you. Yeah. It's probably like a 120 to 125 whip, I would say, something like that. Yeah. I'd take the over on that. And just decent strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:56:26 So I've been viewing him as a cell high, obviously, before the hamstring injury, especially. It might be a little harder after this one. But yeah, I think, I think. I think the worst part of Kodi sang a season is to come. All right. Hey, real quick. Is it time to say goodbye to Jacob Lopez? That's probably fine.
Starting point is 00:56:53 I imagine, given how hard it is to find 10 hitters with even a smidgen of upside who are rostered in less than 80% of CBS sports leagues every week, that I will, there will be future weeks where I recommend Lopez as a streamer. But I think for the most part, we've seen that the pixie dust is worn off and he's pretty ordinary. All right. Snap judgment here. Who wins the NL.
Starting point is 00:57:20 Siong. Both had great starts again here. Zach Wheeler, Paul Skeens. It's Wheeler. It's not a contest for me. As long as he stays healthy. I think everything's going to look fairly. I hope they don't look into ERA too much because it's...
Starting point is 00:57:36 So everything's going to look pretty. similar by the end of the season. Like maybe Skeens has a slightly lower ERA, but Wheeler's probably going to end up throwing, what, 20 more innings? 20 more innings. He has a lot more strike. People are not noticing
Starting point is 00:57:48 how underwhelming Paul Skeen's strikeout numbers have been this year. Like, he has like 2K per 9 less than Wheeler per 9 before you factor in the inning difference. Yeah. Wheeler has double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four outings. Paul Skeens, by the way, picked up his first win.
Starting point is 00:58:07 since May 28th, and it was his first time going six innings since June 19th. There was a report recently that the pirates could look to limit Paul Skeens more in the second half as well. They're limiting him for when he's on another team. What is the point of the Pittsburgh Pirates existing if they're going to waste two seasons of Paul Skeens? Like, you have literally Paul Skeens on a literal league minimum contract. And you're just not going to, I can't. Yeah, I don't. I cannot with that.
Starting point is 00:58:41 Like, that is just. Really understand. Because I, I'm sure they don't have a lot of money to spend. I'm sure the GM doesn't have a lot of money to spend. He's not permitted to spend much money. Mm-hmm. But he's supposed to be a smart guy. They have a lot of low dollar assets.
Starting point is 00:58:57 Like, you could do what the, like the raise managed to do it. Look at the shirt that you were wearing shot. Some effort. The Brewers. The Brewers are a low. Do you guys know the? last free agent that the pirate signed to a multi-year contract? Yvonne Nova in 2016.
Starting point is 00:59:15 Yankee legend is the last time the pirate signed a free agent to a multi-year contract. I'm not even, like Ben Charington, whatever. I have no opinion on if he's good or not. I think it's clearly a mixed bag. But this is Bob Nutting. Like this is just like contract the pirates. That is my take. No, I'm saying, I'm sure Bob Nutting's restrictions are restrictive, but you can make it work.
Starting point is 00:59:44 You just, you have to try. Like, it's not even free agents necessarily. It's not like the rays go out and sign a bunch of big name free agents. They sign sneaky free agents, and they make really smart trades. And, you know, they develop, when they have the assets to compete, they try to compete. You don't have to sign a big free agent to. try and compete. There are other ways to do it. I'm just not seeing any effort on the Pirates part. On a team that was trying to win games, Bubba Chandler would have been called up in April.
Starting point is 01:00:16 Like, they're just not trying. Sure. I'm not even saying like, they probably still wouldn't be a playoff team if Bubba Chandler got called up in April, but they're just not trying. Like, they have had Paul schemes and they are just not trying to win games. That is like, whatever, man. Like, you're not going to have them forever. The Dodgers are bad for baseball, no, the Pirates are bad for baseball, man. Like, Paul Skeens isn't going to pitch a game that matters until he gets traded to the Yankees. Like, it's ridiculous. Some leftovers here on the hitting side, Jose Ramirez.
Starting point is 01:00:49 Another home run here. A bunch of power and speed in July, he has seven home runs and eight steals so far in the month, somehow just hitting 222. So kind of weird, but obviously power and speed is awesome. Kyle Stowers hit another one. And in July for him, he's up to nine home runs. a 1324 OPS. Luis Robert, he is trying to get traded two for four with two RBI.
Starting point is 01:01:12 He is also having a nice July so far, hitting at 364. Two homers, three steals, 1023 Ops. A. E. E. E. E. Hennio Suarez, hit another one, his 36th home run. Byron Buxton, his 23rd. Shohei Otani, home run on the same day he was pitching, his 35th. And Will Smith, two more home runs for him, up to 14 home runs now on the season. Some pitching leftovers. Kevin Gosman, great start up against the Yankees. Seven innings, one run, eight strikeouts for him.
Starting point is 01:01:41 His whole season has just been so up and down. I mean, such is the life of a splitter pitcher, I guess, but it's just kind of have come to expect this from Kevin Gosman. This is what he is. Yeah. It's, you know, some really good starts, some really bad starts. And when you look up, it's a high three's low fours, ERA. Yeah, something like that. Yuri Perez, solid against the Padres, five innings, two runs, five strikeouts.
Starting point is 01:02:04 didn't have his best stuff here but still powered through for a solid start Otani solid against the twins three innings one run three strikeouts got the pitch mix up to 46 the pitch count excuse me up to 46 so that was the season high and Noah Cameron
Starting point is 01:02:20 struggled with the long ball but wound up with the win at the Cubs six innings four runs seven strikeouts to zero walks anything to add on Cameron Otani the pitcher Yuri Perez and Kevin Gosman I think it's a testament to how talented Yuri Perez is that he clearly still doesn't know what the answer is as far as his secondary pitches are. And he's still pitching really well right now.
Starting point is 01:02:47 Once he figures that out, whether it's that slider that looked really good in the previous start, whether it's the curveball that has flashed or the sweeper, he's going to be a monster. All right. And then some bullpen updates here for the pirates. David Bednar allowed a hit, but struck out one for his 14. For the Padres, Robert Swares picked up his 29th save. That is now six scoreless appearances in a row for Suarez, who looks like he's turned things around. For the Blue Jays, Jeff Hoffman struck out the side for his 24th save.
Starting point is 01:03:18 For the Mets, Edwin Diaz struck out the side for his 20th. And for the Astros, Josh Hader picked up his 26th save of the season. To stream or not to stream on Tuesday, we have Landon Rup at the Braves, Cam Schlittler at the Blue Jays. Frankie Montas gets the Angels. I really don't like these options. Erod against the Astro. If Schlitler didn't have the
Starting point is 01:03:44 bicep, was it bicep tightness? If he wasn't coming off that, I'd be interested. And I'm interested in long term if he's healthy, but if I don't have to start him, I'd prefer not to. Yeah, Landon Rup at Atlanta's the only one that I could Yeah. The only one I could really see having a quality start and it's not like it's a sure thing. Yeah. And then on Wednesday we have Soroka up against the Reds.
Starting point is 01:04:12 Brandon Fott gets the Astros, Slate, Cicconi against the Orioles, Todge Bradley against the White Sox. Bradley against the White Sox seems fine. Cicone against the Orioles seems pretty good. I'm going to keep smashing my head against this Mike Sorroca Wall until I break through. or have to go into the concussion protocol. Oh my gosh. All right. All right.
Starting point is 01:04:38 So yeah, Todd Bradley. I think Sikoni is fine. And yeah, Chris likes Seroca there as well. Team name Tuesday. We'll save these for next week because we're already up against it here.
Starting point is 01:04:49 But I promise we will get some and continue to send in some team names. We'll read those on next week's podcast. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow. and leave a five star raining on Apple or Spotify,
Starting point is 01:05:03 and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

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