Fantasy Baseball Today - Nasty Nestor Cortes! Josh Naylor's Breakout & A Closer Look At Offense (5/10 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 10, 2022

Nestor Cortes was nasty once again on Monday (1:00)! Is Josh Naylor a must-add outfielder? Julio Rodriguez is hot while Shohei Ohtani did something he's never done before (13:35). ... Should you add Orioles hitters and/or Brandon Drury (14:40)? ... What's wrong with Brandon Woodruff? ... What's going on with offense in May (21:13)? ... News and notes (34:06): Updates on Lance Lynn and Jack Flaherty. ... Add Michael Pineda, Tyler Wells or Jose Quintana (40:51)? ... What do we make of Urias, Syndergaard, Kopech and Gore (43:30)? ... We hit Monday leftovers and bullpen updates (47:00) and then wrap up with streamers and Team Name Tuesday (56:25). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, May 10th. Frank Stamphle joined by Scott White today on the show. Nasty Nestor Cortez.

We'll talk about him. What's wrong with Brandon Woodruff? How has offense been overall in the month of May thus far? Team name Tuesday should be a lot of fun and much more. But first, take it away, Susan. Oh, my goodness gracious! We almost got ourselves an oh my goodness gracious, legitimate moment from our girl, Susan, on Monday, Scott.

So I will let you start right there. Was Roger Clemens in the owner's box? I wish. Honestly, I wish that happened. I don't know what he'd be doing there. But anyway, yeah, Nestor Cortez is my, oh my goodness, gracious player of the day because he had to be somebody's, right? One hit the Rangers over seven innings, took a no-hitter very deep into the game. Pitch count was getting kind of high, so he did have four walks. I'm not sure he would have been able to complete the no-hitter even if he had avoided giving up that hit.

But the point is he pitched really well, and maybe the most impressive stat of all, 11 strikeouts against those Rangers, 17 swinging strikes. on 103 pitches. 12 of those swinging strikes came on the cutter, which he threw a ton. It was really working for in this start. He threw it 50% of the time. Usually it's under 40. How often he throws that cutter

a more even split between the cutter and the fastball? So it was a truly dominant start from a pitcher who pitches well, but in a way that's pretty unconventional. I would say like, you know, for as well as Nestor Cortez's pitch this year, it's kind of like last year where you look under the hood

and nothing looks that impressive, like the swinging strike rate entering this game, which a good swinging strike rate. Just, you know, we don't often put it into context. But it's about, what, 12% is a good swinging strike rate?

That sounds about right, yeah. And his was under 10 prior to this start, where I got a ton of swing strikes. So it's going to go up some. But it was like right around 10 last year, too, for as well as he pitched then. So I don't even know, I don't even know what you do with this information because Nestor Cortez doesn't need to be this overpowering to be good.

And it's not like, you know, nobody was looking to do anything with him. He'd been pitching so well already. But I guess it's, if you were starting to lose confidence in him after a couple of, you know, his last couple outings, were in as dominant as the first few. Obviously, this is, should renew your confidence in the very unorthodox

left-hander with the mustache. It's a great mustache, by the way. Him, Dylan C. Spencer Strider, those are the three in terms of like mustache rankings right now. I think those are the ones that are up there for me. See, Strider, Nesser Cortez, the mustaches. But,

yeah, no, that's, we need one more to form a Mount Rushmore of pitcher mustaches in the year

of our Lord 2020. I'm sure there's another one out there. I'll have to think about it. Someone get on that. But let me know about the mustache.

Scott, I think our natural inclination will be to sell high on Nesser Cortez after a start like this. Just for the reasons you mentioned,

it doesn't really add up. He's just kind of a unique pitcher. Swinging strike rate doesn't really back up all the strikeouts that he gets. I saw this tweet

from Andrew McCutcheon though, and I think it kind of puts it in perspective, from a hitter's perspective rather. Nestor Cortez fastball plays up, meaning his 91 to 94 actually feels like 97. Mixed that with him messing up, messing with a hitter's timing, throwing from different arm angles, and locating well, and he can be very difficult to hit. He showed that today. So just kind of puts that in perspective from, you know, a hitter that's been around for quite some time. I mean, like, I thought he was good coming into the year. I wish I had hyped him harder. basically nobody was drafting him so I kept taking him late in a bunch of leagues

and I don't know it was kind of just giving the benefit of the doubt when no one else was you know if nobody else is going to believe in this guy who pitched well last year I will and obviously it's paid off so far I'm not moving him into the top 50 in my starting pitcher rankings yet

so you know if you could use him to get an underachieving Logan Webb or somebody like that, I'd still obviously do it. But I don't, it's hard for me to relate to that scenario

because I just know it's implausible in any of the leagues I play in with people who analyze baseball for a living. Yeah, no, that's true. I mean, I'm sure you see your fair share of trade offers got on Twitter and emails and all this stuff.

There's some pretty wacky trades that go down. I get it. I get it. I see him, yep. Yeah. So, look, obviously, if you could turn, Nester Cortez into, let's just say, a top 50 hitter coming into the season that's obviously off to a slow start. I still think that's the route that you should go down. We're going to talk about

offense from like a macro level view a little bit later on. So we'll talk more about this. But I think that is the way to go about it. We're getting some suggestions for the fourth pitcher on the Mount Rushmore of pitcher mustaches. I think it's a good one. You ready? I see it. This is a good one. Miles Michaelis. Yes, the lizard king. It's a great, it's a great muscle. Did you ever hear the story, Scott, about the lizard? No.

I believe Miles Michael is he ate a live lizard, and so he developed the nickname Lizard King. There might be more to that story, but I think that's the gist of the story. I would not advise that. That's usually something I'm trying to prevent my kids for doing, you know. Yeah, don't do that for anyone listening at home. We do not condone eating of the live lizard.

All right, Nestor Cortez, he was amazing. I'm going to bump him up. the rankings a little bit more. But obviously, if you can sell high, don't just sell for the sake of it, like we always say. Josh Naylor, let's talk about him. Oh my goodness gracious for me. Fiery dude, and he was fiery once again on Monday night,

three for five with a double dong. Two of the more clutch home runs that you will ever see in a regular season game, I guess. A game-tying grand slam off of Liam Hendricks in the eighth inning. And then a go-ahead three-run homer in the 11th inning for Josh Nailer in this game. He finished three-for-five, two homers, 8 RBI total in this game.

He's 31% rostered Scott. And we've heard the name Josh Naler for a while. He used to have some prospect pedigree. Obviously makes a lot of contact. It's a lot of line drives. But hasn't really been able to put it into, I guess, fantasy value or, you know, hit for much power. Or it just really hasn't been that enticing.

Are you buying what we've seen from Josh Nellar to this point? Well, he's only 24. Wow. Let's start with that. That's a lot younger than I thought. Wow. Yeah, me too. He's only 24.

He got called up pretty young because the numbers in the minors were great when he was still with the Padres. First, I want to point out, we're talking about throwback looks with all the pitcher mustaches. The look Josh Naylor has going on with no batting gloves,

the high socks, the baggy pants, he's got kind of a stocky build himself, you know? That's a throwback look, too. Him hitting that home run and then tossing the batting the batting. Like that's like that should be a highlight that's in black and white Because it's just it's just so out of its time

But beyond that Yeah I mean I think anytime a player this young Who has a strong minor league track record starts making some noise It's worth paying attention to He hasn't been playing all that consistently He's a left-handed batter so you know Cleveland's been sitting him against left-handers But beyond that they've been sitting them against some right-handers

sidehanders too. And maybe that changes with this performance, but they're kind of in a bind. They have so many hitters who are, it's weird to say for Cleveland Guardians, but they have so many hitters who are actually hitting well that they're having trouble fitting them all in the lineup. They're having to move Owen Miller all around. They're having to move Andrus Jimenez around. You know, Stephen Juan, obviously, has kind of made himself into a fixture at the top of the lineup, a table setter for them. And, like, Fram Mel Reyes' playing time has suffered because of them trying to find at bats for all these players. So I'm not saying you can't pick up Naylor, but I don't think we're out of place yet until we see him playing more consistently,

until they prove that they're willing to find regular bats for him. I don't know that we're at a place where you can get them in your lineup yet, at least not in a standard-sized league. Okay, so we're not in any type of must-add territory here, Scott, but five outfielder leagues probably should get him on your team? Yeah, I mean, I'd willing, he's showing upside, and yeah, there's a chance he starts playing more based on that. I mean, the strikeout read is down to nothing else. I don't know if you mentioned that, but he's been making a lot of content.

early on, which is always a good sign. And stop me if you've heard this before about a hitter performing well this year, but the pull rate is up for Josh Naylor this year compared to his career mark. So he's pulling the ball more, lots of line drives. And so far, that's worked out quite well for him. Scott, if you're looking for an outfielder to add, would you rather have him or Tommy fam? I think fam.

I think so, too. I think fam because he's going to get the playing time and like the data, the stat-cast data, the batted ball stuff is stronger for him than it is for Rameau Reyes. Granted, it was the past couple of years in San Diego, and it didn't go well for Pham, but he's in Cincinnati now, opposite into the spectrum in terms of the hitting environment, and plus he steals bases.

So yeah, I just think there are too many advantages FAM has over Nelaird to go the other way. Tommy Fan, by the way, two for four with his second steal the season on Monday night. His last 15 games, he's betting 302 with a 413. on base percentage. I still think Tommy Fam is the most under-rastered hitter right now. He's 46% rostered. There's really just not a lot of outfielders

performing. I would have to imagine someone in your league can use Tommy Fam. So go out there and add him if he is available. As always, Scott, I'm going to bring up a few names that I still think are rostered in too many leagues. Avisa El Garcia is 60% rostered. Would you be okay dropping him for both of these guys?

Yep. How about Jorge Saler? I still have. I think Jorge Salare is one of those players who deserves a ton of patience because, I mean, he was a monster from late July on last year. And if you dropped him before that, obviously, you regretted it. How about Jared Kelnick? I think you can drop Kelnick for FAM, at least.

I might hesitate to do it for Nailer. but there's a chance Kelnick gets sent down soon. Yeah, Kyle Lewis will talk about him in a little bit. He's been performing quite well through his first four minor league rehab games. Last name I mentioned Scott, Joey Gallo, 82%

rostered. He's dealt with I believe it was a groin injury. He's been in and out of the lineup a little bit and obviously just hasn't been great. He's still 82% rostered. What do you do there? Yeah, I think like Saler, if you dump them, you're giving 40 home runs to somebody else.

Oh, gosh. He's just, he is so painful, man. He's such a painful hit. I get it. I get it. Like, there could be a month where he just, you know, he hits like double-digit home runs. It can happen.

And it's going to happen right after you drop them. But it's, oh, God, holding. You know, and I'll make the distinction for both Solair and Gallo. If you're talking to three outfielder points league in particular, then whatever. Like, that's fine. I think even in a, in a categories league, any kind of head-to-head league, you know, that streakiness,

because it's a game that happens a week at a time as opposed to a full-season accumulation of Roto, you can't put up with the streakiness as much. And certainly when it's three outfielder, obviously the standard is for an outfielder to meet is higher. So I think it's okay to move on from Salar. And I'd say even Gallo in those formats, especially in points,

maybe even in categories if you're, you know, if you can honestly find something that you're confident is better. But there will come a time in the season when you regret it, even in those formats because they're tearing it up. For sure. Some other fun hitter standouts from Monday, Julio Rodriguez, three more hits in over his last 17 games. He's batting 3.44 with a 22% strikeout rate.

So that strikeout rate is down tremendously from where it was at early on. He leads baseball with 10 steals. He's the first to double-digit stolen bases. And this was his second game now batting 3rd. third in the lineup in a row. So Julio Rodriguez has earned that promotion up the lineup, and he's been fantastic. We want to see a little bit more power, obviously, but with the batting average coming around and the steals, obviously, we love everything he's doing right now.

And then Mike Trout and Shohei Otani, they went back to back in this game on Monday, and then Otani later adds a grand slam. So giving him a double dung, and it was his first grand slam ever in MLB or Japan. So love to see it from both Mike Trout and Shohei Otani. A few other... Go ahead, Scott. Surprising. That was first Grand Slam ever, including his time in Japan,

because he was obviously a great player in Japan. Yeah, yeah, we were talking beforehand. I had the game on. I was like, really? First ever? It doesn't, it seems so weird. A few other waiver-wire hitters. I already mentioned Tommy Fam and Josh Naler, of course.

The Orioles, I feel like I talk about them every day. Trey Mancini is someone we haven't really mentioned. He's got 11 hits over his last six games. He's hitting the ball hard, lots of line. actually the sixth highest line drive rate among qualified hitters for Trey Mancini. He's batting 280, the problem, only one home run. And I think power is going to be hard to come by for these right-handed hitters in Baltimore. He's 49% rostered.

Scott, of course, the other two names, Austin Hayes, two more hits, now batting 317. Jorge Mateo feels like we mentioned him quite often, but he stole his ninth base. He's 32% rostered. So I think that there's more than 32% of CBS leagues are categorized. leagues. So he should probably be rostered in all of those leagues. Yeah, probably. I mean, he might, as we get deeper into the season here, and he looks more and more like a steel specialist who won't really provide anything else. And his, you know, his OPS is in the mid-600s. So, I mean, at some point, you have to question the job security, too, whatever

else. I don't know what else the Orioles are going to do in shortstop. But I think Jorge Mateo is is not an especially valuable player, but he does contribute a lot of that one thing that everybody could use more of, which is stolen bases. For sure. Another one here, Brandon Drury.

I mentioned his name yesterday, Scott, and it seemed like we just kind of brushed it off. I get it. He's been around for a while, journeyman, whatever. But he's playing every day right now for the Reds. It's a good ballpark. And he went two for five on Monday,

hit his sixth home run of the season. This one off of Brandon Woodruff. and now Drury is batting 284. He's got a 930 OPS, barrel rate, hard hit rate, both up the season. Expected numbers look really strong. Brandon Drury, 22% rostered,

has triple eligibility, second base shortstop outfield. Are you a little more interested one day later after he has his big game? I'll say this, and I was saying this early last year too. It's so hard to find like everybody feels like they're lacking

an offense, right? And you get a guy who's actually producing. I don't care who it is. You can't really dismiss it just because you're having a hard time getting production anywhere. I'm skeptical. I'm highly skeptical. The barrel rate you mentioned is high. It's very high by his standards. And of course, that's going to lead to good expected stats if your barrel rate is that high. But as I've been saying like barrel rate being unusually high or low. I feel like especially this early in the season, it's an indicator of just are you hot or are you cold? Now, I mean, players have improved their barrel rate from one year to the next in considerable

ways, but I'd still bet against it. When everything else looks pretty normal for him, except that, and he's pretty, producing like he is. It's probably going to be short-lived, but you can pick him up as a short-term villain since he's actually producing right now and see where it goes. I mean, that's the thing about a hot-hand play

is if it turns out there more than that, well, you already have them. If nothing else, add him for the position eligibility, too. I mean, in any roto leagues where you have a middle, a corner, you need five outfielders, you can plug him into any of those spots. So I picked up Brandon Jury in a 15-team Roto League, my NFBC main event.

I started him this week just because I desperately needed a corner infielder. And obviously, I love what he did on Monday. So we'll keep following Brendan Jury, see if he can keep it up. Let's talk about the gentleman who he hit the home runoff of Brandon Woodruff. What is wrong with Brandon Woodruff at the Reds on Monday? He allowed six runs over four and a third. Five of those were earned. He still had six strikeouts, 11 swinging strikes in this game on 19.

He gave up nine hard hit balls. The ERA is now up to 5.97. The whip is up to 1.36 for Brandon Woodruff. Scott, what are you seeing right now with him? And are you worried? I'm not worried because I don't see much. Now, the velocity is down a little this year, which I'm not sure we've mentioned before for Woodruff.

Not like Shane Bieber levels or anything, but it's down a little bit. but the whiff rate, the strikeout rate, the expected stats, whether you're talking about like XBA, X-Lug, or X-E-R-A, like they're all the same for Woodruff. He's missing bats at his usual rate, and Staccast thinks he deserves the same results that he got last year.

So, you know, it feels a lot worse that he's having starts like, this at a time when so many even bad pitchers are putting up good numbers. Like it really accentuates the struggles. But I think at most years, if he had a stretch of a couple starts like his last two or three, you know, it'd be easier to dismiss. And I'll mention that in his last start, he had 12 strikeouts. So, yeah, I don't seem much reason to worry about Woodruff. I get that it's frustrating, but I don't really see anything that's wrong.

Yeah, there's just a few things that are. off with him right now and things that would lead to bad results. The walks, Babib, home run rate, average exit velocity, hard hit rate. Those are all up a little bit this season. His fly ball rate is up quite a bit. I mean, that was kind of an issue for Aranola last year too. And it was really random because like Aranola, Brendan Woodruff usually does a decent job of getting ground balls. But yeah, this year it's 46% fly ball rate for his career. It's 33%. And then the strand rate has been unlucky too. It's 59% this season, 76% for Woodruff's career. But swinging strike rate, first pitch strikes, chase rate, all of those look fine, Scott. He's got a 5.97 ERA. Woodruff has a 3.26

X-FIP, and that's including this start. So I know we say this a lot about struggling pitchers, but we can really only tell you what the underlying number say. And right now they say to buy. Yep. It's as easy as that. So if you have Brandon Woodruff, should be coming for him. Let's talk about offense overall. A macro-level look. Obviously, April was terrible for offense. How has May been thus far?

Not good. So if we're just comparing May to April, batting average is up three points to 234. Babbip is actually down one point. So if you're wondering how, why batting average is actually up a little bit, it's because strikeout rate is actually down a little bit in the month of May.

Home run to fly ball ratio. 10.3% in May, 10% flat in April. So that really has not budged at all. Home runs per game up by a fraction of a point. Not much going on there. Steels are actually down a little bit in the month of May. So overall, it's kind of just been static. I know it's still been cold in most places around the country, the Northeast. We just saw a bunch of games canceled over the weekend, rain, cold weather. So it really hasn't heated up much. And I looked at the first eight days of May from last. year. Obviously, I don't remember what the weather was last year, but it's completely different. Like, the batting average was a little bit higher. The home run to fly ball ratio was up four percentage points, 14.6% in the first eight days of May last season. So overall, the first week, Scott, has been less than encouraging, but we haven't had great weather either. I'd give it the remaining 22 days of May because like you know it's obviously not a magical thing that

happens because the calendar happens to change it's because May has different environmental conditions than April and we haven't seen that change as much like it would be it would be completely a historic for offense not to improve in May like that always always happens I'm not saying it's going to undo everything that was down in April. I have wondered if the impact of the humidor, whatever way it was suppressing offense in April, if it could make for an even more dramatic shift as it gets more humid because when you're drying out balls in more humid environments, the ball's going to carry better.

So I've wondered if the improvement in offense would be more dramatic than in years past. But I just, I don't think the weather has changed enough for us to say. And I'd really want to reassess in May. But yeah, it's, it does, it doesn't make sense at all unless, unless they go to an even better ball in May, that offense would not improve to some degree in May. Now, the biggest improvement will be in batting average more than in home runs. I think, I think it's, I think we're definitely in a worse home run. run league now. Yep. Because that doesn't change the home run to fly ball rate. It does

improve in the summer months, but not as drastically as you see the BAPIP improve or even the strikeout rate for hitters on the hitter side, improve as we go deeper into the season. So I think that the bigger impact will be in batting average than in home run production, but there will be some improvement. And I think we need to wait until the end of May to get a better sense of how it's going. I want to mention this too, since talking about big wide offensive trends because I haven't seen anyone else bring this up. So everybody is, you know, most analysts are reliant on stat cast data because it's very good. But stat cast data only goes back to 2015. It's not a very complete picture of widespread changes in the league.

those kinds of, you know, those paradigm shifts where the league environment changes in whatever way. So it only goes back to 2015. But we have home run to fly ball rates dating all the way back to 2002. And if you look at those, home run to fly ball rates leaving stat cast data out of it, what you see is that 2002 through 2000, through 2000, through 2000, 2014. So the majority of that time that we have that home run to fly ball data looks very much like this year. It's right around 10% every year. Some years it's a little higher, around 11%. Some years it's a little lower. It's below 10%. But the stretch that stands out as

being the exception to the rule is 2015 and especially 2016 through 2021. So this year is less the outlier than the past six, seven years have been. Six and seven years is a long time. So, you know, people need to kind of recalibrate their thinking. And I'm sure hitters and pitchers for that matter are going to have to recalibrate their approaches because a fly ball isn't going to be as rewarding as it's been for the past six, seven years. But ultimately, it appears to be returning baseball to a standard that, that was in place prior to,

prior to the stat cassera. I've noticed, and I saw you tweeting about this too, that a strikeout raid is down, you know, across baseball this year as well. And I think, I think pitchers are purposely pitching to contact.

It's partially that in the fact that, you know, sticky substances are gone this year, or so we think. I think it's, I think it's mostly the sticky substances, but you're right. Pitchers may already be less fearful of contact.

Part of the reason why they're doing that is just the shifts right now. I mean, defensive positioning is just so stellar. I heard this on a broadcast recently and they said it feels like every time a ball is hit hard, you look up and there's just a defender there like all over the field. So as a result, that's going to lead to lower bad bit and lower batting average overall. Basically, Scott, we have to figure out what does this mean overall though for fantasy. Like it's, I think it's good to talk about and let everyone know what's going on in the game. but what does it mean?

And I think for me, I think we try and cash in on some of those pitchers who pitch to contact. I don't think that they're going to be able to maintain this for the entirety of the season. The problem is a lot of these guys

are lower-end pitchers. I don't really know what you're going to get for them anyway, but the ones that stood out most to me who have the biggest differential between their ERA and their current FIP, according to Fangraphs,

Brad Keller, Chad Cool, again, not sure how much you're going to get for that. Miles Michael is. He has a little bit of a track record. Merrill Kelly, someone we spoke about yesterday. And even though his ERA is 1.22, his FIPP is still 2.05,

so he just in general has been really, really good. Noah Cindergarde is another really interesting one to talk about. He had another pretty good start on Monday. He's got a 2.45 ERA. His ex-fip is 3.89. And then I think some of the injury-prone pitchers got like Clayton Courershaw and Pablo Lopez and Carlos Carrasco, if you have an abundance of pitching,

I think these are the names that I'm looking to try flip for offense, the ones that pitch to contact and maybe some of these injury-prone pitchers as well. What do you think about that? Yeah, I think in general, people are going to want to trade pitching for hitting more than the other way around. I've also noticed I was writing like a dynasty stockwatch piece earlier where, you know, obviously the standard for a player's value and changing in dynasty is higher than it is in a redraft league. Like you want to be really sure about changes in an expected output before you change your assessment of a player in Dynasty.

And I have a really hard time sizing up any hitter at this point because the landscapes change so much and we're coming off a month where, you know, it was, it served to suppress offense further and we were faked out by a lot of hitters last April and it improved as the season went on. And so I'm not sure which hitters to trade for so much. I mean, hitting the ball harder is probably more important than ever now. So that would be a good

place to start. But more than anything, I'm still mostly relying on track record. You know, with maybe average exit velocity being a secondary matter. It's tough to play in this environment. I think it'll be easier. again, as I said at the end of May, to size up everybody. But I think just as a general rule, yeah, like excess pitching,

if you can trade it for hitting, that's probably a smart idea. Yeah. I do want to say, getting away from the fantasy angle, that between the sticky substance ban serving to reduce strikeouts for the first time in decades, and return with the deadened ball returning home run to fly ball rates more to historic norms and the banning of the shift next year. I mean, I think this is all going to play out in a positive way for the aesthetic of the game. It's going to become less of the three true outcomes game, which is, which is what most baseball fans want to see.

they want to see the excitement of players running around the bases and fielders having to make plays as opposed to just seeing strikeouts and home runs all the time. So I think it's all going to work together to restore the aesthetic of the game in a way that we're all going to appreciate when all is said and done. But we're kind of going through the growing pains right now.

And it's mostly frustrating, particularly for those of us who play Fin. Yeah. I think we're going to see a return too for those, you hear them called like professional hitters, ones that could just spray the ball all over, hit the ball where defenses aren't. Like, DJ LaMayhew and Jeff McNeil and guys like that. We'll see those batting averages climb over the next couple of years, I think. And I also think it's going to create more of a separation, Scott, between the elite power hitters like we've seen in the past, like let's say Aaron Judge and Pete Alonzo, there's going to be a much more of a separation between those

guys and the middle class where we've seen, you know, middle infielers pop in 20 homers or 25 homers or like fringe outfielders hitting 20 to 25 homers. And it'll just make those sluggers more valuable in the future as well. Yeah, well, I mean, anybody who's played fantasy baseball for 10 years or longer remembers how different it used to be. Like, there were different phenotypes of hitter.

It wasn't just, is this guy going to hit 20 home runs or 30? You know, it was like, okay, this is. guy's going to provide me some power and some batting average. This guy's going to provide me a ton of power. This guy's going to provide me no power, but, you know, he does enough other things well that he's still useful. And it made the game more interesting. It made the fantasy game more interesting, too, frankly, in addition to the real life game.

So, yeah, I think three years from now, it's all going to have been worth it. But right now, we're kind of scratching our heads over it. All right. before we hit the break, if you listen to us on Spotify, please feel free to leave us a five-star rating. It's something that they've introduced the past year or so where you can now leave ratings on Spotify. So help us out there, five stars. We really do appreciate it. We're going to take a quick break. And when we return, news and notes here on Fantasy Baseball Today. All right, the news and notes, Lance Lynn is targeting an early June return. He had knee surgery just before the season.

Jack Flerty will throw his second bullpen session on either Tuesday or Wednesday. this week. Blake's now will make his third rehab start at AAA on Tuesday. Dylan Floro was activated on Monday 41% rostered. Scott, are you looking to add Dylan Floreau in category leagues right now? It seems like there's an opening for the Mariners closure job again. Marlins, yeah. Yes. Yeah, I mean, certainly Anthony Bender hasn't been getting the job done recently. Anybody else they've tried. Is Floreau that good? No. So, I mean, I'm not sure he's going to take the job and run with it. But if you're in a league where, you know, everybody's always rushing to the next potential save source, then yeah, I think you need to beat the rush to Floro and just see what happens. All righty. Seas Suzuki was removed from Monday's game with ankle soreness. Mani Margo left with hamstring soreness after stealing two bases. So he was well on his way to another breakout game. And I saw, I think, earlier on Monday, he was announced as like,

the American League hitter of the week. So he's been hot. He's been awesome, but obviously slowed down a little bit by this hamstring injury. Brandon Belt scratched once again with neck stiffness. Akele Badoo, I have a feeling that my bold prediction of 3030 is not going to come true for Akele Bucon, unfortunately. He was option to AAA on Monday. He was batting just 140 with a 438 OPS.

His quality of contact is way down this year. The infield fly ball rate is up. And Derek Hill is the one that seems slated for more playing time. Just a name to watch in deeper leagues. He hit 259 with three homers, six deals in 49 games last season. And he does have some big stolen base seasons in the minors. Again, that is Derek Hill, a name to watch. David Robertson was placed on the IL for undisclosed reasons,

which sounds like a COVID situation. Wade Miley will make his Cubs debut on Tuesday against the Padres. Last year, he had a 3.37 ERA, 1.33 whip. underlying numbers didn't really like Wade Miley as much. He's 17% rostered. Scott, any interest there? Wade Miley. I mean, not with the current state of pitching.

I'm sure there will be times when I'm recommending him as a streamer, but last year was kind of an outlier for him, and he faded down the stretch even then. Scott, I actually think the other, I go the other way. Because Wade Miley, he's one of these friends pitchers that pitches to contact, right? That means he's going to do great. He's going to be amazing. He's going to be just as good as Miles Michaelis and all these other guys.

Yeah, well, I mean, for however long, Miles Michaelis stays good. Yeah, we'll see. The Lizard King. Ray's pitching prospect, Shane Boz was slated to throw batting practice on Monday. I haven't seen an update yet on that. I'm sure if anything went wrong, we probably would have heard about it. He had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies back in March. Shane Boz is eligible to return June 6th, but we're not quite sure just yet if that will happen.

Taylor Ward did not play on Monday due to a tight hamstring, though he expects to return on Tuesday. Yor Moncada made his season debut Monday, and I wrote in here that he went one for three, but I'm pretty sure he had another at bat after that. So let's see what he did. He went one for four with a walk, strikeout, and a run scored. John Gray exited Monday start early due to left knee soreness.

He's already been on the IL once with that same MCL injury in his knee. Kyle Lewis is hitting well early on in his rehab. He's six for 17 with two homers in his first four games. He is 48% rostered. Scott, do you think that number should be higher for Kyle Lewis? Yeah, I haven't been the biggest Kyle Lewis guy. In theory, he has power as much as you can predict that for any player these days. But I just think the contact skills are lacking, too lacking for him to really make good on it.

especially in this offensive environment. So, I mean, in five outfielder leagues, you can maybe take a flyer on him, but I want to do it over somebody like FAM or even Nailer. All right. Luke Voight will return to AAA to get more rehab at bats. He's currently 0 for 18 with 12 strikeouts on his rehab assignment, so it's not going great.

Edward Olavaris was placed on the IL with a strained right quad. Anthony Descliffeani through a bullpen session Monday. He's been on the IL for two weeks with an ankle injury. Evan Longoria is expected to return later this week for the Giants. He is 18% rostered. Last year, he hit 261 with 13 home runs in, I believe it was just 81 games. Scott, looking to add Evan Longoria in deeper leagues? In deeper leagues, sure.

I mean, how many competent third basemen are there? And his exit velocities were amazing last year. He was top 10 in average exit velocity, and we wondered why he was. more productive. Considering that, it's been so long since he's, Longoria's been a real fantasy asset that I'd still bet against it

and being like a difference maker. But he could be a serviceable starter at third base and a deeper league. All right. Would you rather have Longoria or Brandon Drury as a corner infielder? I would,

I would see where Drury takes me first. All right. Casey Mines will make his first rehab start at AAA on Thursday. He's on the IL with a right elbow sprain. Tigers pitching prospect, Alex Fayetteau, is being called up once again to start one of the doubleheader games on Tuesday for the Tigers. He was okay in his debut last week.

A gentleman named Adrian Martinez will make his NLB debut and start Tuesday for the A's. He came over in the Sean Baniah trade, but his ERA is very high at AAA. So don't do anything yet, but let's watch and see what he does. Mike Musach is placed on the COVID-IL Monday, joining a long list of Redspe. players who are currently on the shelf. And the best for last, Frankie two hits is back with the Cubs. After getting demoted on Sunday.

They just couldn't go through with it, Scott. They said, no. I think I said on the podcast, we may never see him again. We see him the very next day. So, you know, I don't know, I don't know that he's be that regular part of the lineup at this point. And obviously, he's not off to a good start anyway. So I don't think you need to rush out and at him again.

but yeah. He went 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts. Okay. Not great. Not great, Bob. Let's talk about some waiver wire pitchers from Monday. We had a solid pitchers duel out in Detroit where Paul Blackburn was the better of the two. He went 6 and 2 3rd shutout with three strikeouts to zero walks.

How is he doing it? Great control. And he's getting a lot of ground balls. So just three walks over his first, I believe he's made five starts. and he's got a 52% ground ball rate, and I just realized his roster rate is 79%. So probably not out there for you. On the other side, Michael Paneda,

fortune favors the brave. He was solid. Six and two-thirds, six hits, two runs. He had four strikeouts, a 3.43 ERA through four starts. He is 40% rostered. He's got anything on Paul Blackburn and Michael Paneda. Yeah, I still don't really get the Blackburn thing.

and there were some high swinging strike rates and pretty good strike out totals early on and that's kind of faded over time. I'm pretty skeptical he can sustain anything close to this and I would definitely consider him a cell high guy to whatever you could possibly get for him. But I understand why he's as rostered as he is too. I mean, until he...

I'm just saying don't get too attached. to Paul Black, to Paul Blackburn. Fair enough. In deeper leagues, we've got Tyler Wells, who has now made three strong starts in a row and turned in his first quality start of the season on Monday. Sixthetnings, one run, three strikeouts. Pitch mix is kind of interesting.

He throws four different pitches, 15 plus percent of the time. He's 8% rostered. And Jose Katana, now three straight, strong starts as well. Up against the Dodgers on Monday, six shutout innings. with five strikeouts, did have four walks. The ERA is down to 2.70. Scott, anything on Tyler Wells and Jose Cantana in deeper leagues?

Yeah, I mean, I'm not that excited about either. I've kind of been keeping an eye on Wells because I feel like he's looked pretty solid more often than not, but the underlying numbers aren't great. I mean, he's less than 10% swinging strike rate himself. And obviously we've seen the way things have gone for Jose Cantana the past couple years It's been a while since he's been fantasy relevant These are they're pretty low-end

They're not they're not players I'd be looking to pick up at this point But I don't know I guess I'll just leave it at that All right, what should we make of these pitchers right now Scott Mixed bag for Julio Arias on Monday he was at the Pirates He went six plus innings He allowed 11 hits two runs four strikeouts.

Michael Kopeck turned in his first quality start of the season, but I noticed the swinging strike rate is down so far this year. Underlying numbers are kind of weird. It's kind of been a mixed bag for Michael Kopeck as well. Noah Cindergarde, season high, seven strikeouts, but he's got a 2.45 ERA, underlying numbers. Don't really like Cindergarde as much.

He's doing some different things this year, too. It seems like he's pitching to contact. And then McKenzie Gord, he didn't have his best start. he was going up against the Cubs, five endings, three runs, six strikeouts. I love that he didn't have zero walk. So even though he didn't have everything working, the control was very good for McKenzie Gore. Gore, Cinderguard, Kopegg, Arias. Scott, what do we make of this group of four?

Yeah, I've got some observations about this group. So you mentioned Gore didn't walk anybody. I thought that was especially encouraging because he didn't throw his fastball as much. He's been relying on his fastball like 70% of the time. it's kept him from missing as many bats as maybe he could. But I wondered if that's how he was keeping hitter. If that's how he was limiting walks, it's just leaning on that fastball.

He threw his fastball still a lot, 60% at the time, though. And of his 12 swinging strikes, a combined seven came on to change up in the curveball. And as you said, he still walked nobody. So if he's mixing in that secondary arsenal more, I think that's good for Gore. it maybe will help him get closer to meeting his upside. And more than anything, I'm still hoping he just keeps his rotation spot

because they're getting pretty crowded here. When Blake Snell comes back, they're already crowded for that matter. Cinderguard actually did have a good bat missing performance this time. Seven strikeouts in five and a third innings, 15 swinging strikes. His velocity, I don't think it's coming, back, but he's pitching like a guy who knows he doesn't have the same velocity anymore. Just emphasizing his secondary pitches, and they may be good enough. I think the more talented pitchers can sometimes get away with drops of velocity because

they have such good control and they have good enough secondary pitches. His change-up was great in this start, Cinderguards. So I still think he's a cell high I'm still skeptical that he's going to remain a high-end pitcher with this kind of velocity but I'm at least open to that idea Aureas I want to worry about him giving up 11 hits to the pirates

The average exit velocity against him was below 80 miles per hour So it was it was weak contact by and large And nine of the 11 hits were singles I think it was just one of those days and Kopeck, yeah, I mean, I agree with you that he's not as dominant. He hasn't been as dominant as 093 ERA, which have you believe, as his stature would have you believe. But at the same time, what are you going to do about it?

I mean, he's pitching well enough that, you know, I'm kind of inclined to just stick with him. All right, let's move over to some pitching leftovers from Monday's action. Yeah, we're almost 50 minutes in, and we're just talking about Carlos Rodan right now. And just ho-hum, another double-digit strikeout effort, six innings, two runs, 12 strikeouts, 23 swinging strikes on 110 pitches. They are letting Rodan go right now, and it's not affecting his performance. It's not affecting his velocity.

Just stay healthy. Luis Castillo made his season debut. He allowed three runs over four and two-thirds against the Brewers. Rangers Suarez had his best start of the season six shutout with seven strikeouts he had 15 swinging strikes

in this one and I'm just getting to Kyle Hendricks now because there was either four or five West Coast games so this game just wrapped up

not too long ago eight and two thirds shutout innings one out away from a complete game for Kyle Hendricks allows us three hits one walk seven strikeouts

he had 14 swinging strikes on 116 pitches in this start Scott what would you like to add on Hendricks, Ranger Suarez, Luis Castillo, and Carlos Rodan. Gosh, man, yeah. I feel like there's a lot I can say about these pitches, too. So, I mean, I'm sure you mentioned Luis Castillo's velocity was way down.

I didn't mention it yet. First, I'll start back. Down two and a half miles per hour, basically across the board. So that's scary. And I'm worried that we're going to be having an update for Luis Casas. we're going to have to update everybody after every start because that's obviously he had his issues last year too and beginning this season with a major velocity issue going on.

I mean, that's not going to relieve anybody's concerns and I'd be hesitant. Obviously he was coming back with the two starts this week and he felt like you had to start him, but that velocity doesn't improve in his next turn. I might plan him on the bench for the time being. Let's see. So Ranger Suarez, yeah, he finally had a good one.

And I told you guys not to give up. up on him. So hopefully you didn't it because I think he's good. I think he's good. And let's see, who else? Kyle Hendricks, man, I know that I had a league where I sat him even with two starts on the schedule. Same. So it's just frustrating how two-faced he could be. And if not for last year, where obviously his final numbers weren't that great, then you just stick with him because, okay, look at the track record. In the end, the good starts are going to outweigh the bad, and you're going to be happy with the final stat line.

That's what the track record says. And, you know, that was my case for Hendricks coming into the season to draft him with him going so late. I don't know. I mean, I still think, obviously, after a start like this, it's easy to say, okay, Kyle Hendricks is still good because there's nothing about this start that you can nitpick. But I'm not confident.

He's not going to go out and give him. up six earn runs next time. It's just, you know, if you have a lot of pitching, you probably play it safe with them more often than not, but if you don't, then I don't think you should be on the verge of dropping him or anything like that. Yeah, it was a very encouraging start for Kyle Hendricks, especially the one walk. He had struggled with controls so far this year. His fastball looked a lot better, fastball quotation marks for Kyle Hendricks in this one. He had a 42, percent CSW on his four-scene fastball. League average is like 28%.

So getting more called strikes on that fastball, it does wonders for him because he was not locating that pitch early in the season. 10 whiffs on his change-up. You'll love to see that. And then nine ground ball outs. So far this year for Hendricks, the fly ball rate has been up.

That was an issue for him last year as well. So this is the recipe. It's good control. It's the fastball's working. Change-up is on and getting ground balls. And when all of those things come together, this is the kind of start that we can get from Kyle Hendricks, but I still think there's going to be some inconsistency

because it's just such a fine needle to thread. Is that? Mm-hmm. Okay, make sure I got that right. Yeah, for Kyle Hendricks. Needle to thread? Yeah, yeah, that's all right. Yeah.

Yeah, you thread the needle because it's the hole in the needle is very small, and so it's difficult to pass the thread through it. Yeah. Yes, yes, what Scott said. Hitting leftovers from Monday. Bobby Witt Jr. leading off. He went one for five with his fifth steal. Quality of contact is still not great for Bobby Witt,

but he has been playing better. Marcus Semyon 0 for 4 with two more strikeouts. He's batting 178. Scott, I mean, I'm getting question after question right now. What do I do with Marcus Semyon? I guess bench him for now. I'm not dropping Marcus Semyon. I would be trying to buy him on the very, very cheap end if I can,

but it's probably not going to happen. Yeah. Look, I think we all had our doubts about him coming into the year. We all considered him a bust candidate on some level. So, you know, my confirmation bias wants to kick in and say, yeah, he's done. But, you know, obviously there was that awful 2020 season in between his two MVP caliber seasons. And even last year, he was pretty bad at the start. Not this bad, but bad enough that you wondered if he was going to be worth keeping him.

on your team. And obviously he proved he was over the rest of the season. So yeah, I have no problem with sitting him until he heats up for a Brandon Drury or whatever. But I do think it's too early to drop him. I would give him, you know, maybe another six weeks. That's why I really considered that. Do you feel the same way about Justin Turner? He went 0 for three with a walk. He's batting 168. Well, the investment in Turner isn't nearly as much. But if anything, the track record is more reliable. And he plays third base. So what else are you going to do?

I think you give him a longer. Like I said, just a few minutes ago. I'm having a really hard time sizing up any hitter right now. So I think anybody that you have real investment in and who exactly that includes, it depends on the size of your league, the format, all of that. But I think anybody you have real investment and you got to give them probably until the end of May.

All right. Brian Hayes went three for five with his third stolen base. He's now betting 333, only slugging 419. He does not have a home run on the season. His fly ball rate is just 26.5%. This is Cabrian Hayes. So that's going to make it tough for him to hit for power. But batting average, 10 to 15 steals.

It's valuable. It helps somewhere, I guess. So that is Cabrian Hayes. Jared Walsh, he's hot. He has sixth home run of the season. season and the Phillies. They put up nine runs on 17 hits. So you check the box score. You got Kyle Schwerber on your team. You're thinking, man, he had to do something massive tonight. 0 for five with a strikeout. He's batting 200. He's been a little bit better recently, but

Scott, that is just one of the worst feelings when you have a player on a team that goes off. You check the box score. You have all these high expectations. Nothing. Well, yeah, I know. Remember last week, not this current week, but last week, Hunter Renfro, I think he was my number two on my sleeper hitters list. And the Brewer's offense just went off last week. And Mike Hunter Renfro did nothing. He was the one guy who didn't contribute to it. That's rough.

Yeah. As for these Phillies, though, each of Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Nick Cassiano's, J.T. Realemuto, Gene Seguerra, Reese Hoskins, and even Odubill Herrera had multiple hits in this game. Each of those guys, Sigura and Hoskins each hit a home run. Segura, turning it around. All of a sudden, he's about $2.93. P.S. is climbing near 800, so we'll take that because second base has also been a wasteland this

season. The call to the bullpen for the Yankees, a roll as Chapman allowed a hit but picked up his seventh save. He has just three walks over his last seven appearances, so you'll love to see that for him. Yet, fastball v. Low still inconsistent, and the swinging strike rate is down for Chapman. Regardless, he's been good, so give credit where it's due. For Oakland, Danny Jimenez walked to but picked up his fifth save. He's 37% rostered. Scott, would you drop Lou Trevino for Danny Jimenez?

Yeah, I think so. Trevino had worked, he had gotten the previous day off, but he had worked two of the previous three games. So maybe they just wanted to give him another day off, but it's not like Lou Trevino's some shutdown clothes. I mean, he lost his job

at some point last year. And it was basically the guy at the start this year by default. So I'm not sure why they want to just stick with Jimenez, who's done a fine job in the role. All right. Liam Hendricks gave up that grand slam in the eighth inning to Josh Naler, which I mentioned, which tied the game at the time, a manual class A on the other side. They had the lead in, I believe it was the bottom of the 10th.

He gave up a walk, a hit. He allowed the Ghostrunner to score, so that tied the game there. And then Mark Malanson pitched a clean ninth inning for his sixth save of the season. To stream or not to stream, we'll start with Tuesday. Reed Detmer's versus the Rays. You say Kikuchi at the Yankees. Mad Bum versus the Marlins. Alex Fayetteau versus the Oakland A's.

Kyle Braddish at the Cardinals, Brad Keller at the Rangers, and Martine Perez versus the Royals. So I don't think we liked anyone in this group yesterday. I added a few more to this list, but they are not very inspiring. Yeah, I mean, I, yeah. I think I would go with,

Martin Perez, number one, just because he's hot, and he's going against the Royals, obviously. Yeah. But I don't have a lot of trust in him. It's certainly not something I'm dying to do. And then I think I'd go Keller to, Brad Keller, at Texas, too, and then Bumgarner, who we mentioned yesterday, would be third.

Brad Keller, I feel similarly about him as I do, Martine Perez, and the Rangers are not hitting right now, too. so I'm okay with it if you want to take a shot. For Wednesday, Jameson Tyone versus the Blue Jays, Adrian Houser at the Reds, Chad Kuhl at the Giants, Nick Martinez versus the Cubs, and Chris Archer versus the Astros.

I'm okay with Hauser at the Reds. I'm okay with Nick Martinez against the Cubs. As good as Cool's been lately, I don't want to risk it at San Francisco. I had more confidence than Gomber, actually, and we didn't mention him earlier, but he had a,

after three straight quality starts he got knocked around a bit by the giants in this one. Yes. He was a two-star sleeper for me, so that's disappointing. He gave up five runs over five and a third for the old Austin Gomber. Let's wrap up with team

name Tuesday. Thank you to everybody for sending some over via Apple podcast rating and reviews. If you want to add some there, then we will read them on next week's podcast. First up, Scott, we've got Real Gold Fam. Okay.

Well, Wally Pips War. Oh, I'm not sure I get that one. The next one is Vladdy Schwarbucks. That's good. Okay, like Daddy Warbucks. That's pretty good. And you get bucks like BUX like Buxton. So you get three names in there.

A movie I've actually seen, Scott. Annie. I watched it a lot growing up. It was like my grandmother's favorite movie, so we watched a lot of Annie. I don't know why. Love you, Miss Annigan. Yeah, that's right. Aronado hits the ball to your fences.

Okay. They wrote Eagles Desperado in the, in parentheses. So probably a song by the Eagles, I guess. Yeah. Flexing on you. Probably read that one a few times. Tatis all folks. Like that's all folks?

That's a stretch. Yeah, I guess so. Marsh the Darsh. Okay. I don't know. probably something Randy Marshallated from South Park. This is good. Ask your doctor if Savali is right for you.

You know, I've meant to bring it. So this is Savali. He did that with Savali. I wasn't exactly sure how to word the joke. But every time you say Lutrovino, it sounds like some sort of prescription medication that you've seen an ad like this for. I've noticed that with his name.

Every time you say Lutrivino. Lutrivino. Like it's just one straight word, Lutrivino. Lutrovino. Yeah. Yeah, I have a few of those. Some people call me out

for the way I say innings. Sometimes I say ennings with an E. I don't know that it's specifically you. I've never thought about it before, except hearing you say it so often. Lutrovino. Ask your doctor about Lutrovino. Yeah, you're right.

When you say it like that, it does sound pretty good. This next one of Bryce and Men. Okay. Solid. Finding Nimmo. Yep. Visions of Johanna Santana. Johanna Santana.

Johanna Santana? I think it's a Bob Dylan song when I was researching it. Okay. I don't know. Not really into the Bob Dylan thing. From Twitter, Yepez dispenser.

Simple. I like it. Yeah, we need some Juan Yipez team names in here. Some emails. This one's from Robert. Freed Willie from Seawald. I don't usually like the cramming in of that many names, but that's, it's kind of funny.

That's good, I like that. From Joe, getting Miggie with it. Getting Miggie Witt. Okay. Bobby Witt, solid. Yep. From Patrick, Naris Bueller's O'Day off. Ah, well, if you're a stickler for getting,

you can only name your team after players who are actually on your roster, then be hard to get Narris and O'Day, especially O'Day on your roster to make this work. That's a rough one. From Paul, Hicks May on the Bonebrae. Okay. And this is after the album from the offspring, I'mne on the Homebrae.

I know you're a big fan scant. Did they have, like, were they, did they have like a whole catalog of hits or something, The Offspring? I just remember the one song. Okay. Yeah, yeah, they've got a bunch of great ones out there. Okay.

And this last one's from, Cajun Pete, the Flying Rutchman. I don't know why he calls himself Cajun Pete. I like that more than his team name, I think. Flying Ruchman, hopefully, coming soon to a Baltimore stadium near you. And we're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow.

Bye-bye.