Fantasy Baseball Today - Nathan Eovaldi Shutout, Closer Carousel & More! (4/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 2, 2025

Nathan Eovaldi tossed the first shutout of the season (2:36). ... Shane Baz was awesome against the Pirates (8:30). ... Casey Mize dominated the Mariners (12:57). ... News (18:54): David Bednar was optioned to the minors. ... The closer carousel goes round and round (28:10). ... Logan Webb and Dustin May did things differently (37:16). ... We've had some big scoring in Sacramento (41:07). ... We had three pairs of socks and shoes (45:30). ... These hitters are off to nice starts (49:45). ... What did we think of these starting pitchers (55:20)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (58:30). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday. April 2nd.

I am Frank Thample, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we will break down some more. great pitching performances. We have had a lot of offense in two games in Sacramento. Is there anything to take away? I'm not sure. The closer carousel has been very busy the first week of the season and much more, but let's jump in.

Let's go. Brewers on the board. Good for them. You'll love to see it. But we are not leading off with any brewers. We are in fact leading off with Nathan Avaldi, who delivered your first complete game and first shutout of the season. Four hitter with eight strikeouts, zero walks, 18 whiffs on 99 pitches.

That's right. A Maddox here for Nathan Avaldi. The splitter was tremendous in this start. It was his most used pitch. Through it 36% of the time. He got 10 whiffs with that pitch in particular. 42% whiff rate. It was awesome in this one.

Notably, his velocity was down on all four of his main pitches, but it was a little cold out there in Cincinnati. 55 degrees was the average weather there in Cincinnati. But look, Nathan Avaldi, you were talking beforehand. I'm not sure that there's much to take away from this because when he's healthy, we know that he's capable of having really, really good starts. And to start the season, he looks like he's healthy. So do you guys have any thoughts on Nathan Avaldi?

Yeah, I mean, I think the thing to say is just to point out to people that he's not an ace. He's performed like an ace through two starts And so you may be tempted to think Oh yes, Nathan Avaldi Ace. And I know if you have Nathan Avaldi, you don't want to hear this, but you need to hear it. He's not an ace.

And so you don't want to proceed with that misimpression of him. There's a reason why he hasn't had an ERA below 363 since 2013. And that was the only time he had an ERA below 363. He was kind of a different pitcher back then with the Marlins. or of a ground ball guy. He's 35 years old now. I don't see anything

that he's doing all that different from in the past. I think he's just had a couple of really good starts, which you don't stick around as long as Nathan Avaldi has without having the ability to do that. And I just want to add, like in 2023, he had a 269 ERA through his first 19 starts. That was all the way through, to the first start after the All-Star break.

Then he went on the IL, missed about a month and a half, and ended up with a 363 R.A., which is usually where he ends up, which is to say, like, that year, there was a lot of, like, he's a top 20 pitcher. He's an ace. And we have such a long track record with Nathan Avaldi

that, like, I'm torn between two things. I'm torn between, yeah, he does this every year, and then the numbers end up being what they are. And the other side is, who cares? Like, we're not talking about, like, how you have to draft Nathan Avaldi right now. So, like, if someone wants to treat him like an ace because they have him on their team and they're excited by having him on their team, whatever. I don't care. I don't think you should trade for Nathan Avaldi thinking he's an ace.

Correct. I also don't think anybody needs me to say that at this point in Nathan Avaldi's career. Maybe. I think people do. people got really mad in 23 when I was like he's like a top 40 top 35 starting pitcher but not an ace so maybe people do

but yeah they do they definitely just really I think the thing is like if you have Nathan Avaldi and you can get like a top 100 pick type player for him you should go do that otherwise just write it however long it lasts we don't think it's going to be Ace production all season long but it will there will be stretches

where he is absolutely a must start pitcher and so I don't want to diminish it too much. He's good. He's very useful. He's not going to do this every time out. There are some differences here. He's spamming his splitter and curveball more than ever before.

He threw them. He didn't last start. He threw his splitter just 17% of the time. Last time it was the curve ball, right? He threw the curveball a ton. But it was like 59% usage combined in these two starts. That's about 14% up from last year. there will be some starts where those pitches aren't working

and he has to rely on the fastball and he might get hit harder. He's good. He's good like Jose Barrios is good because they pretty much finish with the same numbers every year. I feel better about Evaldi. Yeah, especially when last year, of all the swinging strike rate was 13%, and Jose Burrios was sub 10%.

So I hear you, but the track records are for the top line numbers are very similar. Burrios wasn't as good as a strikeout pitcher last year, but normally they're both a little under one per inning. Yeah, I hear you on that. The ERA and WIP feel like they are usually pretty close, but I do trust the skills, I think, a little bit more with someone like Avaldi. I think, look, consistency doesn't really exist. It's overrated and trying to find it is, it's usually a statistical artifact and it's more random than we think. But for me, when of all these lots, in, it feels a little more, I don't even know if sustainable is the right word, because I know it's not sustainable, but it feels like I can trust it a little more where Bereo's just feels like a random number generator. And we've seen that the first two starts.

Yeah. Horrible first start, but somehow the numbers are always there. Yeah, except for that one year. And I do rank of all the ahead. Don't get me wrong. I'm just saying they're, yeah, they're closer in value than it probably feels like today, even though Barillas wasn't bad today. It doesn't really sound like we disagree at all and we're we're all just arguing with the we're all coming out fictitious commentators who are going to yell at us for down playing Nathan Avaldi. We're all straining to find things to say about Nathan Avaldi and maybe we can stretch it out for another minute. Let's not do that. Nathan Avaldi is good. That's it. He should be in your lineup. If you could trade him for a top 25 starting pitcher, you should do that. On to the next player, Chris,

your player of the night. My player of the night is Shane Boss, who I think is, yeah, I'm so in my head now because someone in the comments before the show said, watch, they're going to downplay Nathan Avaldi. And that's exactly what we're doing because he was better than Shane Boss. But I think Shane boss was the most exciting performance of the night. He looked awesome. He looked like the guy we've been hoping he would be since he was a top prospect. His fastball velocity was up. one and a half miles per hour. And what was interesting there is everything else was down or at least not up as much. And so there was more differentiation between the fastball.

And he was electric. Eight swinging strikes on the curveball. It was 13 overall over six innings. 10 strikeouts in this one. Yes, it was against what looks like still a pretty mediocre to bad pirates lineup. but this looked like the kind of performance that would have worked against pretty much anyone. And the key thing was Shane Boss that we've talked a lot about over the past, you know, eight months or so since he came back from Tommy John surgery as the slider.

The slider was not really their last season. And that was supposed to be his best pitch before the injury. Well, he only threw it 19 times. It was his third most use pitch. So not a ton of usage. But the movement profile did. seemed to be a little closer to what it had been in the past. He was getting about three inches more drop on the pitch than he did last season,

which is closer to where it was in his brief stints in 2021 and 2022. I believe those are the right seasons. And so while he only got one whiff, only three called strikes with it, I do think there is room for that slider to be a better pitch than it was last season, which is really exciting. It was a big deal. This boss starred a bigger deal than Avaldi because, of course, the purpose of,

the purpose of a fantasy baseball show, which is what this is, is to take what we're seeing right now and interpret it moving forward. So, yeah, I mean, on just a regular baseball show, the angle on Nathan Avaldi would be, look at this great start, look at these great pitches, e-through, et cetera.

But we're trying to tell you, you what happened today means moving forward. That is the whole goal here. And there is more to say for Boz in that regard. It's a more telling start for him than it is for evolving. And it's especially telling. It might be the most telling start of all because I have to tell you, I was really worried about Shane Boz coming out of spring training.

The fact he seemed to lose the slider coming back from Tommy John. John surgery, his velocity wasn't as high. He wasn't missing nearly as many bats. And it was continuing into spring training. You know, a lot of times on a daily show about baseball, I am just so that we can have a show, I'm required to say things that I'm not necessarily ready to act on, you know? But I was ready to act on dumping bars. I had him in a very deep dynasty league for a very low price, and I was shopping him

before the bottom fell out. ultimately nobody took my offer because I was trying to get a fair offer and not, you know, presupposing that he was going to decline. But like he, everything came back in this start. This season debut, everything looked fine again,

the velocity back to 2021 levels. The slider, you know, it wasn't his go-to pitch, but the curveball looked like it could be and there were some positive signs there for the slider. So very, very encouraging for Shane boss.

Yeah. The one thing that I will point out if I, uh, throw a little cold water on Shane, Boss here is he still allowed some hard contact, a 95.4 average exit velocity against, and he leans fly ball pitcher in his career. So doing that in this new stadium, George Steiner Field where they're playing this season, I still think there could be some tough starts against harder opponents, but obviously this was a very encouraging start for those

who drafted Shane Boss. So I don't want to poo-poo it too much, but just we'll throw that out there as well. Scott, over to you for your player of the night. Let's make it three for three. on starting pitchers. Yeah, Casey Mize had a great season debut himself. One hit in five and two-thirds innings. Walk three, so that's not great, but he struck out six. And what's especially encouraging is he had 15 swinging strikes on 82 pitches, including five each on the fastball and splitter, four on the slider.

So he had multiple offerings working there. Did Casey Mize? And the splitter seems like it's the game changer here. It's the one we were talking about from this spring up 2.3 miles per hour here in the season debuts. So the velocity increase on the splitter will continue for Casey Mize. You know, we saw some interesting things for Chris Paddock this spring. And then he comes in, start of the season. He's still just Chris Paddock.

Well, Casey Mize actually appeared to be something new in this start as much as we can trust to start at Seattle. So the splitter was up in velocity. Also, the fastball, I mentioned it caught five whiffs itself. Induced vertical brake was up two inches, up to 18 inches total. And, you know, if that shape has changed and it can be more of a weapon in its own right, then maybe Casey Mize will be, you know, clearly he's a late bloomer here for being a number one overall pick. But he was a number one overall pick. And maybe he's starting to live up to that.

potential. A couple of notes on Mize. One is, I think it would have been a lot worse if he was in a park where batters could see the ball, which is famously the complaint that a lot of hitters have had about Seattle. I'm being a little facetious. It's just a tough place to hit. And the command on the sliders was really bad, especially the lefties. If you look at the scatter plot against lefties, It's all up with the sliders, a lot of middle middle with the four seamer especially as well. So I think this could have been worse, but for a first time out for a guy who's 43% rostered, I think for Mize. That's all the way up to 54%. Okay, there you go.

That's nitpicking. You know, I think he looked very good overall. I think he got a little bit lucky with the matchup, but again, I think it's splitting hairs on this one. I think he should be rostered more widely than he is, and I'm excited to see what it looks like moving forward. It looks like he is in line for two stars next week, one of those against the Yankees and then the other at Minnesota.

So obviously a little bit tougher than Seattle. We'll see if he can keep the momentum rolling, rolling next week, Casey Mize, 54% rostered. I assume he's behind both Jeffrey Springs and Chris Bubich, who we spoke about the past two days. Yeah, but I'd put him ahead of like

Richard Fitz at this point. I think there's more upside for Mize. What about Mize versus Jordan Hicks? I would take Mize, but Chris might feel differently. Yeah, I'm not sure on that one. I guess I would lean

Mize. I think so too. But I like Hicks. Yeah, I think both are pretty interesting. I think Hicks first start was more impressive. So if I have Mize ahead, it's mostly because I started with him ahead. Yeah, I think they were both impressive. I like Mises more because he got more whiffs. Like obviously the sinker and the velocity being up for Jordan Hicks was

great, but I really like the whiffs here. Obviously, facing the Mariners helps a lot. But yeah, I'd rather see whiffs than not. And Casey Mize did a lot of that in this start. Before we take our first break, just a reminder that you can always listen to FBT and our 10-minute podcast, FBT Express, on Spotify. If you're watching on YouTube, you could scan the QR code in the top right corner that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. And big thanks to those watching us live on YouTube. Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Let's take a quick break and we'll be back

right after this. Welcome back in. and notes and a busy day for the Pirates. David Bednar optioned to AAA after his terrible start to the season. And it looks like the names next up, we have Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana, and lefty Caleb Ferguson. What do you guys think? Who's next up for the Pirates? Does it even matter?

Well, I had a bullpen report come out earlier in the day, and I speculated that Dennis Santana was the next up, just because Colin Holderman, looked bad and set of duty. He hasn't looked any better than David Bednar. And Santana, there seemed to be some enthusiasm for him with the way he performed after coming over to the Pirates last season. That said, I mean, Santana hasn't looked great this year either. He pitched the eighth inning just today.

So it's not like it looked like they were reserving him for a save chance. And I'm just going to be real with you. I think your best chance of getting consistent saves from a pirate. Pirates reliever is David Bednar going down, straining things out for a couple weeks and coming back and hopefully being good again. I'm not saying that's a scenario you should invest a lot in. I think it's pretty unlikely, but it does seem like the likelyest path to a single Pirates reliever being a good source of saves the rest of the way. Yeah, like I went and looked at the ATC projections for everyone in their bullpen and here's what it looks like. Colin Holderman 384 ERA 134 whip.

Caleb Ferguson 376 ERA 136 whip. Dennis Santana 421 ERA 132 whip. Everyone else is worse than those three. This is a really bad bullpen. The pirates saw David Bednar last season and decided we're good. We don't need to upgrade the bullpen. And I imagine that means that they're going to give David Bednar another chance at some point.

They are really emotionally invested in him. And I will just say this is exactly why I hate talking about relief pitchers for fantasy, because we have to figure out which of these bad pitchers, Derek Shelton, is going to decide will be his closer. It would be hard enough if you were just like, hey, who's a better pitch? or Colin Holderman or Dennis Santana. I don't know. I'm not going to,

I don't want to have a strong opinion about that. Now I have to try to figure out who's better and who Derek Shelton thinks is better. It just, it doesn't, this one specifically just does not seem worth the energy. You're emboldening the saves plus holds devotees out there, Chris. I mean,

they're a very loud contingent. I don't think any of these guys are good for saves plus holds league either. I know, but they're saying if you do a saves plus holdsleys, you don't have to worry about this. Yes, and you reduce the relief pitcher position to like the kicker position of fantasy baseball. So, you know, I don't know that it's a cure-all. But sure, if you prefer not to deal with this and just not worry about relief pitcher much at all,

you can't set up your league that way, sure. Yeah, it just, I don't think it's worth the energy. As for David Bednar, is he worth holding in any leagues? NL only for sure. Yeah. 15 team roto leagues. I think so too. Ideally, yeah, but I think realistically, if we don't hear something encouraging on him in the minor soon,

I'm going to want to use that roster spot on somebody else. All right, the Pirates also promoted one of their pitching prospects, Thomas Harrington, who made his Major League debut on Tuesday, and it was a rough first start. Four innings, six earned runs. four walks to two strikeouts and I think the nerves got to him here obviously first major

league start but this is someone who typically has really good control in the miners does not walk many batters and you know he's not overpowering he's more of a kitchen sink approach kind of guy but the minor league numbers have been really good despite this bad start any interest in adding

Harrington in deeper leagues not really I mean if it went better this debut I'd say sure I could see adding him in an L only just because he has a roster spot in a pulse, but there's some upside here. It's mainly going to come in the form of controls or the fact that Thomas Harrington walked for in his debut

doesn't mean he's always going to do that, but it's not what you want to see from him. Renalo Lopez will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder, and he's having the surgery to determine if he has any structural damage that needs correcting. The Braves said they expect him to return at some point this season, but honestly, who knows? I assume that Ronaldo Lopez is a drop in leagues with no IL spots.

Yeah. Yeah. He's pretty widely a drop, I would say. And what I saw was they hope he's back this season. Yeah, I, one particular beat rider, I think, was speaking bluntly. They don't know what the issue is. And so if they get in there in the surgery and it's, you know, it could be any. number of things that would end his season. Or it could just be a cleanup procedure and he's back

in a couple months. But I don't think it would be shorter than a couple months is the thing. So if you're not willing to hold on to a mid-range starting pitcher for a couple months, then you're fine dropping him. All right. Freddie Freeman was out of the lineup again on Tuesday after re-aggraving his ankle injury over the weekend. He's unlikely to return until Friday against the Phillies. Shohei Otani is scheduled to throw a light bullpen on Wednesday. Max Scherzer has been given a cortisone

injection in his injured right thumb. Zach Netto began a rehab assignment at AAA on Tuesday. He's working his way back from off-season shoulder surgery. Let's quickly pull up his roster rate and see what's going on with Zach Netto or Zach Netto

or Zachary Netto on CBS I'm seeing here. 78% rostered. So it could be out there and some leagues? Yeah, and this is sooner than was expected. So I moved him up a few spots in my rankings. I moved him past everybody's darling breakout pick, Mason win. Yeah.

So it's time to get excited about Zach Netto. It sounds like it's going to be a couple weeks still, but that's sooner than I was anticipating. Yeah, I would guess at least two weeks, probably closer to three, just because he's going to have to do a whole spring training, basically. Yeah. Sean Mania is still having problems with his strained right oblique and will be shut down from throwing for two weeks after receiving a PRP injection.

I saw Beatriders speculate that we might not see Mania until late May at this point. Is he worth holding in leagues with no IL spots? I am selfishly asking this because I have him in the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational and I don't know if I drop him or not. Yeah, I think in TGFBI I've already got four guys on the IL. So if I had, actually, Mania is one of them. So I'm probably, he's probably going to be the guy that I dropped this week if I had anybody. I mean, late May is a long way away.

And it's not like, look, I think he's capable of being a high end pitcher. He was over the last couple months. But that's, that's not a certainty. He doesn't have a long history of it. It's about 11 starts. I would think not many leagues have no IL spots. But even if you're a league with a couple IL spots. and there's a good chance

you have a George Kirby and Zach Netto in there already and it's like, well, do I hold on to Mania? You know, maybe I'd like to, but I could understand. I don't think it's a must holding on to him. All right. Devin Williams was placed on the paternity list

and we'll miss up to three games with the Yankees. Austin Wells let off on opening day, but Paul Goldschmidt has let off each game since even against right-handed pitchers. So Austin Wells hit sixth here, on Tuesday and I kind of feel like that's the lineup that they're settling in with here for the Yankees.

This is kind of messed up. Homer's in his first at bat as a leadoff hitter. Yeah. And they're just never going to give him the chance. I did see, like, Corbyn Burns has some reverse splits. So that could explain today with Goldsmith lead off spot, but they seem

to like him up there. I'm not sure I do. Yeah. To be fair, Paul Goldsmith in his first game leading off, also hit a lead off home runoff of Nestor Cortez. So, yeah. Yeah, I mean, you can't exactly complain about the way the Yankees lineup is going right now. Right.

But it could always change. It could always change. It changed after one game. Speaking of the Yankees, they also signed Adam Adavino to a one-year deal on Tuesday. Sean Murphy crushed a two-run homer in his first rehab game at AAA. And Lance Lynn announced his retirement from baseball. a very solid career there for one, Lance Lynn.

Did want to get to some more bullpens earlier than usual. I'm sorry, Chris, if you want to go to the bathroom or go hang out somewhere while we talk about this. Yeah, I'm fine. I'll just sit here. Your Marlins, by the way, with a two-run lead in the ninth inning, they went to left-handed pitcher Anthony Veneziano. Cannot say I've ever heard of that pitcher before in my life, who started the inning. The Mets had Soto Alonzo Nimmo coming up, so obviously two lefties there. He walked Soto, then a ground out, then a single.

He was relieved by Anthony Bender, who got the final two outs for his first save of the season. I don't want to overreact either way. I think Bender might be the closer. He also pitched the ninth inning with the game tied on Sunday. They wound up with the win. Calvin Foshe pitched the eighth inning of that game on Sunday. He faced the heart of the Pirates lineup at the time. He also threw 46 pitches.

combined on Saturday and Sunday. So maybe not available in this game, but I don't know that we could say that definitively either way. Yeah, I think that's a fair summation of events. I think it's very likely Foché wasn't available. He had Monday off, obviously, but 46 pitches the previous two days this early in the season. That's a lot.

So you could understand him getting two days off in a row. But it's not like he has shown himself to be some lockdown closer. that they can't turn away from. It's a completely new manager for the Marlins this year, so it doesn't even have a history of deploying anyone as a closer. And I think we just have to wait and see. I'm still prioritizing Foché among all Marlins relievers, but Anthony Bender, it wouldn't be a shock if he came out

and got the next safe chance as well. I was going to say there was a point where Bender was the Marlins closer, but I think that was two managers to go now. So that feels especially unuseful. His name was brought up by their current manager before the season as like a part of just mentioning. Yeah, Bender has experience, but also Foshae and Tinocho are in the mix. Tinoco's on the IL. I don't think it's Venetiano.

I will say that. I think this was a Soto-Nemmo thing in the ninth. Yeah, I think that is fair. Let's talk about the debacks. Justin Martinez entered in the eight. eighth inning with a three-run lead facing the heart of the Yankees lineup. He struck out the side. Judge, Jazz Chisholm, and Anthony Volpe. He looked disgusting in a good way, of course. AJ Puck got the ninth inning. He allowed a solo home run to Ben Rice, lefty on lefty. How about that?

But he struck out two for his first save. And based on this game, it feels like Justin Martinez is the highest leverage reliever, but I'm certain that they will both get saves this season. Yeah, that's what they said they were going to do at the start of the year. At least to start out. I think they actually phrased it to start out and giving one guy a chance of taking the role and running with it. But yeah, I mean, you have to like,

if you're more invested in Justin Martinez than A.J. Puck, even though Martinez did not get the save in this one, you have to like that he came up against Aaron Judge. And who was just behind Aaron Judge? Aaron Judge. Jazz Cheseman, Anthony Volpe. And struck them all out.

Strug them all out. Yeah. And then Puck, I think, faced three lefties in a row. Yeah. So it made sense the way they deployed the two. I'm not, I'm not moving on from Justin Martinez if I was invested in it.

And that's the main takeaway here. I mean, the secondary takeaway might be good for Ben Rice. Yeah. Who hit a home run. Who had that, yeah, he hit it almost 108 miles per hour off AJ puck.

And that wasn't even as hard as tip ball of the day. He had 111 mile per hour double. off of Corbynardts. And a ground out and a ground out that was 105. Yeah. So I know there were some people asking if they could drop Ben Rice already. And look, for some of the names we've mentioned like Torkelson and Soderstrom and Manzardo, yes, that's totally fine. But if you picked up Ben Rice in a deeper league with a corner infield spot, like, let's see where this goes.

I see absolutely no reason to drop him. Like, it might, he might, he might just be Carrie Carpenter. I think that's actually a realistic outcome. But Kerry Carpenter was a top 200 picks. Yeah. Carrie Carbenter was probably overdrafted, but there's room for platoon-only left-handed bats who are really good.

I do think there's at least a chance he becomes more than that. I think he's a really talented hitter. I mean, after hitting a home run off of a really good lefty and AJ Puck, like maybe it could happen. Oh, the minor league track record is incredible for Rice, too. The only thing is your league has to be of a certain size, I think. Yeah. Because I was just 12 points.

I was just updating my rankings today. I barely got him inside the top 25 first basement. I think he has the ups. I think he has upside beyond that, but I think a lot of the top 25 first basement do. And Rice having some platoon concerns. That's as high as I was able to put him. Yep.

All right. Let's talk about the Tigers bullpen real quick. Bo Briskey entered with two outs in the sixth inning, a runner on first, a three run lead. He got Cal Raleigh to pop. out, then he stayed out there for the seventh to face the heart of the Mariners lineup. He did give up a run. Will Vest got the eighth inning with a three-run lead.

He pitched a clean inning. And then it was Tommy Canley in for the ninth with a three-run lead. And this was their first traditional save opportunity since Bo Briskey blew the game against the Dodgers last Friday. So I don't know that we should put too much stock into this one either. But the fact that they went to Canley, I think if I'm in. a deeper categories league. I would be looking to add Tommy Canley right now. I think you should. Again, I'm referencing the bullpen report. I put out Tuesday morning. Apparently it was a pretty good one this time because a lot of stuff happened right away. Canley's had only one other

appearance prior to this one. It was also in the ninth of a tie game. And that was when Bo Briskey came in in the 10th and had a grotesque appearance that caused the Tigers the game. And brisky had worked since then. Canely hadn't. It really seemed like AJ Hinch was preserving Canely for a save opportunity, which you got here. So I think that's pretty telling. I think that's as much as we're going to get from Hinch on this. And I would prioritize Canely. Frankly, I think I'd prioritize him over Emilio Pagan, who I don't trust in a better picture. Yeah.

I'm not going to put him quite up on Luke Jackson's level. but would you take canley over either of the marlins? Yeah, yeah, I think I would. Yeah, there's been enough doubt introduced there that it would. Yeah, I think that's fair. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get back into Tuesday's action right after this quick commercial break. Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today.

I did have a segment planned here. Opening week overreactions, they might be aces. But I think you guys definitively answered both of these questions, right? Like, we're not overreacting and calling Nathan Avaldi or Shane Boz an ace yet, correct? I think Shane Boz has a path to get there. I think Nathan Avaldi

will certainly spend at least a month this season pitching like an ace. Neither should be classified as an ace right now. Yeah. Two more names. One who might get back to ace level. He's doing things a little bit differently this year, Logan Webb, and Dustin May

who also did some things different. he's definitely not an ace, but he did some different things here in his first start since 2023. So Logan Webb bounced back at the Astros, seven innings, one run, six strikeouts here. His sweeper was very good in this one. It's still a little bit worrisome to me that he only used his change up 14% in this one, and it just was not good. I was reading an article after the start from Justice Dela Santos, who covers the Giants for the Mercury News. And basically just pointed out that Logan Webb is a different pitcher this year. He has changed his mechanics.

He has acknowledged that he's a different pitcher. Whatever was going on with his changeup, I'm not sure that he has completely figured it out, but he feels comfortable going with other pitches right now, the sweeper and the cutter. And, you know, one start was not so good. And then this one was really good against the Astros. So there's him.

And then Dustin May, who I would say looked pretty good. Five innings, one hit, one unearned run, six strikeouts up against the Braves, 11 whiffs on 81 pitches. The spin rate on his sweeper, 3,238 RPM on average, which is insane. That is like normally, I think Seth Lugo is the highest I've seen,

and it's like 2,900, 3,000. I don't know that I've ever seen 32, 3,300, and that's where Dustin May was at in this game. Jackson Job's cutter, I think, is in that range as well. but yeah, that's a pretty bonkers number for Dustin. And you see it in the movement. That thing has a lot of late break. And the velocity was down for Dustin May,

which I was also reading about. And apparently the Dodgers won him to purposely throw with less velocity because they think that he could command his pitches better when he does that. So any takeaways here on Logan Webb and Dustin May, the new versions of them, I guess. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't worry about Webb at all as long as he's throwing strikes, as long as he's getting ground balls,

as long as he's striking out a little less than a better per inning, I think everything's going to come together for him. And we don't need to obsess about the pitch selection so much unless we see one of those things change. And I will say with Webb, he's throwing that cutter more, which he started doing last year. Cutter's a very effective platoon neutralizer for a lot of pitchers. So it might just be that the cutter and changeup combined to be what the change up used to be for him,

in which case the end result is probably pretty similar. Yeah. As for Dustin May, he has always been like a Jiff Marvel. Like his pitches look like somebody's throwing a wiffle ball, but just much, much, much harder. And that's always been the case for him. but he has the same issue as as jacob de graham to a much larger degree even like he's about to enter free agency and the most innings he's thrown in a major league season is 56 he hasn't thrown even a hundred innings majors combined since 2019 and that was 106.2 like there's

there's no durability here from dust in may maybe taking a little off we'll change that but that's That's a very big maybe. I think you enjoy them while he lasts, but you don't expect them to last long. All right. Let's talk about some offense here. Here we are, 37 minutes into the podcast. We haven't talked about any offense yet, but.

We talked about Ben Rice. That's true. But just lots of pitcher things to talk about early on in the season. Only two games in Sacramento, but 32 total runs, including nine home runs. And I don't know that there's anything we can, definitively take away from this, except I think I could say that it's going to play

better for offense than Oakland Coliseum did, but that's not saying much because obviously that was just a great pitchers park. But in this game here on Tuesday, Kyle Tucker, another awesome one. Remember when he had a bad spring? Me neither. Two for three with two walks and his fourth home run. He has homered in four straight, and Seya Suzuki destroyed his second home run of the season.

11.7 exit velocity 445 feet off of Luis Severino. Obviously, two awesome players here. I don't know that there's anything to take away there. But do you have any overarching takeaways just from two games in Sacramento so far? It's too early to say. Like Jacob Wilson hit a home run yesterday that wouldn't have been a homer in any other park in baseball. Right. I don't know if that matters.

It was just a low line drive that happened to. sneak over the fence. So three of the four home runs hit today would have been a home run in 30 out of 30. One would have been 16 out of 30. It was hit right down the left field line. That was the Brent Rooker one. So it was hit to the shallowest part of the yard. Yeah, I don't know.

I don't know that a seven to four game screams offensive explosion to me anyway. Obviously yesterday's game with Carson Kelly. I should say Monday's game with Carson Kelly hitting for the cycle and all the home runs. Yeah, that was a big offensive explosion. Yeah, I agree with Chris. I don't think there's much to take away from this yet. Especially when it's what one above average pitcher has pitched so far in these two games. Yeah, I would deal.

Louis Severino is pretty average. So I think Justin Steele is the only one I would say is a good pitcher. Yeah, and he has not been good so far at the athletics here. Six and two thirds, four runs allowed. six strikeouts, two homers allowed. The problem has been hard contact. He gave up 10 hard hits in this game. Five homers allowed total in his three starts so far

and just really not getting many whiffs. And on the other side, Luis Severino had that great first start. Took a step back here, gave up six runs, five of those earned. He has seven total walks in his first two starts. Also gave up a lot of hard contact in this one. I kind of feel like Severino just is who he is, but any concern about Justin Steele, we're only three starts into the season.

So he is not throwing his slider as much, especially in this one. He only threw it 15% of the time, 12 times on 70 pitches, I think. That's bad. That's his best pitch. It's a great pitch for him. He threw his curveball seven times in this one,

which is more than we usually see. He threw change up and sinkers. I think the biggest takeaway here is he's just not, he just doesn't have the feel for the slider yet. And honestly, the fact that he went six and two-thirds innings and was a runaway from a quality start when he didn't have his slider actually makes me

slightly more optimistic about him than you would think based on the line because the slider is going to be there. It's just a question of when. And so I really don't have much concern about Justin Steele at all. I think if there's a by-low opportunity, I'll take it. Yeah, and I want to point out that, You remember Michael King was on the team that traveled overseas to, I think that series was in South Korea, not Japan. But the same sort of timeline, a very hurried ramp up.

And it just kind of seemed to mess Michael King up for all of April. And then obviously he went on to have a great season. And I wonder if we're seeing something similar from Justin Steele, who had to start one of those two games in Tokyo. because it doesn't seem like he's radically off just a little bit. And for being a ground ball pitcher, five home runs and three starts, eh, it's a little weird. King was given up home runs and walks in last April. I don't know.

I agree with Chris that I don't think it's a huge deal. It could become one at some point, but not after three starts. All right. Let's get back into offense here. And a big night for socks and shoes. Let's check on the wardrobe here. For those who might just be checking in for the first time this season, season. When we say a sock and a shoe in the same game, that's a home run and a stolen base in the same game. So shout out to Scott, who originally coined that phrase. But Corbyn, 1 for 5 with a sock and a shoe here. Two runs, 2 RBI. Christian Yelich had a big game. His first home run, his second steal of the season. As I mentioned earlier, the Brewers finally get their first win, much needed there. And Jordan Walker took advantage of the Kyle Hendricks matchup, two for five with a home run and a steal himself. Two batted balls over 107 miles per hour. His home run.

run with 419 feet. He has started 4 or 5 games, back-to-back multi-hit games, and rightfully so, we have been giving a lot of attention to his teammates, Victor Scott and Lars Neupar. But Jordan Walker at 43% rostered, I think could also serve as an outfield replacement. We lost out on Colton Couser and Jorickson Profar in the past couple days. He is the lottery ticket. He's been the lottery ticket for this is the third straight year now, and it hasn't. It hasn't cashed out yet.

So I can understand the hesitation. I think a game like this one on run and stolen base is obviously going to draw more attention to him. He's obviously still hitting the ball hard. I like that Jordan Walker has just two strikeouts in his 17 plate appearances. That is encouraging. Doesn't look like he's in this very small sample elevating the ball anymore, which has always been a concern with him. I don't know

that it needs to change for him to become an impact hitter in fantasy though it would obviously help. I think there's been a lot more holding him back than that. So encouraging signs early on for Jordan Walker, I still think of them as more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing. Well, while we're speaking about the Cardinals, let's mention Victor Scott once again

who just keeps on making things happen, two for five with a run in RBI. and his fourth stolen base. And I had to imagine if he keeps hitting and running like this with success, he's going to move up the lineup, right? At some point, Victor Scott? You would hope so, yeah.

I think there's always a chance. And certainly it's the kind of thing where if he keeps hitting, I guess I don't care where he bats in the lineup. Because the bigger concern for me is whether he keeps hitting. I will point out with Victor Scott. he changed his batting stance.

I don't know if you guys have. Have you guys like toyed around with the the like visualizer that they have on baseball Savant now for the batting stance stuff? I've seen people talking about it. I haven't messed with it myself. It's really neat. They've got like a little graphic

that like shows where they are when they're in their stance, where they are when the pitch is released and where they stride to. It's very cool. And what you see with Victor Scott is in 2024

he was a little bit closer up in the box and he was batting a little more closed off now he is he's starting out a little more open and then stepping in and so he's taking a bigger step when he swings and

look I don't know whether the like the fact that it's different I think is the important thing I don't know the specifics of it matter so much, but he put in work to improve his swing. And I'm happy to see it. I think he's a super talented player. His max exavilo, I think, is already higher than it was last season.

And if he can just be a non-zero as a hitter, if he can just be like a 90 weighted runs created plus guy, which is like 10% worse than league average, Victor Scott could be really, really useful. If we're just ranking the Cardinals outfielders, I assume we go Newpar, Scott, Jordan Walker. That's how I rank them. Chris? Yeah.

Although I think all three should be rostered in most leagues. All right, three other hitters who are off to nice starts, likely not available in any leagues. They shouldn't be. Brendan Lau, three for four with his second home run, two runs, and three RBI. And he has started all five games for the race. He has hit second or third in each. A. E. E. E. Horeno Suarez hit his league league. leading a fifth home run, and it was a big one.

Go ahead Grand Slam in the eighth inning against my New York Yankees. Elliot Ramos, who went one for four with his third home run, and he has at least one hit in each of their first five games. All three homers have come off of Ritees, which I think is encouraging. Last year, huge left-right splits

where Elliott Ramos crushed lefties, and I think it was a sub-700 OPS against righties. So I think it's a good, sign that he is off to a nice start specifically against right-handed pitching. I agree. It's not definitive yet. We're dealing with small sample sizes last season and very small sample sizes this season, obviously, but he's doing what you would want him to do. And there's clearly some talent there. So I, I'm pretty happy to see what Elliot Ramos has done so far, not changing how I view him at all, but it's a good start. And then, eh, uh, uh, uh, uh, I'm pretty happy to see what

Henia Suarez. Awesome. Yeah. Great. I think I'm ready to take the hell on Suarez. That was one of the more animated discussions. Chris and I had this preseason arguing over a Penhia Swaras. It only took 10 years.

It only took how many games has it been? Five? Which is dangerous because it could just mean I end up being wrong twice. But he is like he seems like he just picked up where he. left off in the second half last year. And it was true in spring training as well, like the adjustments he made to recapture that upside that he hadn't shown in a few years. I mean, this year, four strikeouts and 21 plate appearances, so less than a 20% rate of that when, you know, for the dark years of Eugenio Swars, he was striking out closer to 30% of the time. And strikeout rate was one of the things

that improved for him in the second half last year. So he looks like he's going to be, uh, significant power bat again. I moved him up to 12th at third base. Trying to remember who that was ahead of. It was ahead of. I think I just closed the file where I had it written. So I won't be able to open it quickly enough to cite it. But I moved him up to 12th.

Okay, that looks like at least based on the website, which I know you didn't update yet, but... No, it's updated. It should be. It may not have updated, but I have updated it. It looks like you would have moved them ahead of guys like Boehm, Berger. Does that make sense? Right? I would put them right at 12th.

Those are the two. Yep. So why is ahead of him? All right. Let's talk about Jake Mangum, which is an interesting spelling of the name. I want to say Magnum every time, but it's M-A-N-G-U-N-M-G-U-N-Mang.

Who is this guy? Three for four. I believe he was the lead singer of Neutral Milk Hotel. That's not a real thing. That is a joke. that like seven people just laughed at, and those seven people are my people. Oh, right.

Three for four with a double two runs, two RBI, added his third steal, and he has started three straight for the raise, in case you were wondering, because up until a couple days ago, I had no idea who this guy was. Three steals in his last two games. He was betting clean-up here on Tuesday.

He's 29 years old. He started in right field. Last year in the minors hit 3-17 with 20 steals an 800 OPS makes a lot of contact. He also only had six home runs. I mean, this is like the deepest of deep leagues, but if any team is just going to find a random minor league journeyman who's going to contribute to their team,

I feel like the raise would be that team. He is the all-time leader in hits in the Southeastern Conference. Now, granted, that was about eight years ago because he's like 29 or 30. 29. He has minor league numbers, decent batting average, no pop, decent speed. I can see him, I don't know, hitting 270 and stealing some bases and being moderately useful in Roto leagues, but I think there is absolutely no upside here.

Yep, I agree. He might steal some bases, Jake Mangum, but not a lot of power. Also a high chase rate in the miners, very high chase rate for somebody who doesn't strike out much, which is often something that will work in the minors, but not in the majors. I have no idea what any of those things were that you just put on the screen, Chris. They're all Nutra Milk Hotel songs. Don't worry about it. There are dozens of us. Oh, yeah. So I was like, these people actually exist. They're out there. They're watching the show. Oh, that makes me so happy. Thank you so much to three people in the chat who knew what I was talking about. Uh, Jake Mangum, by the way, man, it's, this is going to be a name.

A zero percent are rostered on CBS. I think A.L. only leagues and maybe it plays this way into like deeper mixed roto if you need some speed. But I don't know. Let's, let's make sure he's still in the race lineup by next week. I just, how can we trust them? I'm not entirely sure. Let's talk about some other waiver wire pitchers who are not named Casey Mize. What did you think of these three?

Shane Smith in his White Sox debut, Will Warren in his season debut, and Hayden Wesnesty in his Astros debut. What do you guys think? There have been enough interesting low roster rate pitchers this season so far that I don't really see much reason to get excited about any of these three.

I was willing to give them all a look. And Shane Smith is probably the most interesting here just because of the RP eligibility. Wesneski is also RP eligible, but I think he's just. less talented. But I don't think any of these three really needs to be much more rostered than they are. Shane Smith, like he's 11% rostered.

He gets two starts next week. So as a spark in a head-to-head points league, I think he's fine, even though I don't love the matchups. But none of these guys sound like seem like they're going to be much more than streamers at best. Shane Smith, 11 whiffs on 73 pitches was pretty good. Yeah, that's the most interesting thing about it, but it was what, four walks in five and two-thirds innings.

Against the twins lineup that has done very little, except for swing and miss so far this season. So I don't. He's the most interesting white socks pitcher to me is Shane Smith, but that's as far as I'll take it. And yeah, it seemed like he kind of ran out of steam in this. He's split his time in the brook. AAA affiliate last year between starting and relief.

So I think endurance will be a test for Shane Smith. All right. Some other names in deeper leagues. Carson Spires pitched very well against the Rangers. He was unfortunately on the other side of Nathan Avaldi, the ace. Six innings, one run, five strikeouts for him. Kyle Hendricks, in his Angels debut, tossed a quality start at the Cardinals.

Matthew Liberator on the other side had a quality start against the Angels. and someone named Chad Patrick pitched well for the Brewers in his first career start, up against the Royals 4 and 2 thirds shutout innings with five strikeouts. I searched his name in the Dynasty League, just, you know, any pitcher who has a pulse is rostered in that league. So I was like, all right, this guy's probably available. I'll pick him up. Nope.

He's on Nando de Fino's team. So there you go. Chad Patrick. How bad has the start of the season been for the Brewers? Well, their home opener was a bullpen game. And the second home game of their season was a guy that I've never heard of. Frank has never heard of him. Scott, maybe you've heard of Chad Patrick.

Just because I remember Nando drafting him. And I was like, who is that? Yeah. There you go. Do you guys have any deep league interest whatsoever in these names, Spires, Hendricks, Libertor, and Chad Patrick? Nah, man, we did this with Carson Spires last year. He had like a decent 26-inning stretch and then was finished with a 580RA or whatever it was. I don't see anything here.

Okay. Scott, good. I agree. All right. Some pitching leftovers, we had some double-digit strikeout outings here. Michael King bounced back after his second start. Five shutout with 11 strikeouts. He had 18 whiffs on 88 pitches. And Logan Gilbert, a bit of a mixed start here against the Tigers. He only went five innings.

He allowed three runs. So the ratio is not great. But he had 10 strikeouts. He had 22 whiffs on 92 pitches. Anything to add on Gilbert and Michael King. It's kind of a redemption day for pitchers who had rough first starts. King, I think, the biggest winner on that score. Not that we ever really had any concerns about him.

I think a little further down this list, you'll see Jose Burrios, who I referenced earlier. Not as good of a rebound start, but a very solid one, an out away from a quality start, eight strikeouts and five and two-thirds innings for Brrios. I think those of you who remained. calm have are vindicated today. Three pitchers whose velocity was down in their starts on Tuesday, Sandy Alcansara, five innings, two runs, four strikeouts, actually wound up with the win.

How about that? His fastball and sinker were down between 1.5 and 2 miles per hour in this one. Kodi Senga, a pretty good start on paper. He had some bad defense behind him here at the Marlins, but did have eight strikeouts in six. 16 whiffs. His fastball was down 1.6 miles per hour. And Corbyn Burns, in his D-BACs debut, not as best, also had a pivotal error behind him as well. Four and a third, four runs allowed. Two of those earned. Still had eight strikeouts. And his cutter velocity was down 1.5 miles per hour.

But I think that's what we want to see. We want it down, right? That's exactly what we want to see from Corbyn Burns. He was throwing that cutter at the velocity that he was last September when he searched to the finish line for the Orioles seemed to fix the issue that had been plaguing him with the cutter all year. For as good of a year as he had, he was working without his best pitch

for five of the first six months. So I took, I think this was basically what I wanted to see from Corbyn Burns. I understand the results weren't the best, but I think he's doing what we want him to do and I think it's going to lead to, big things moving forward. Yeah, nine whiffs, 18 foul balls on 31 swings is pretty good for Corbyn's cutter.

So yeah, pretty much all systems go there. Gilbert, his splitters a little different. Almost feels like he's throwing Brokees Sasaki's splitter all of a sudden or maybe two different versions of the splitter because he's got some that are just crazy low spin. He threw one with a 500 RPM spin. The average is down about 132 RPMs. And it's moving weird. There's some that are getting some glove side movement like Sasaki's.

So Gilbert and all those Mariners pitchers just continue to tinker. And he's awesome. We had moved on from him. That was me not paying close enough attention. We were talking about a different group of pitchers there, weren't we? It's all good. Did you have any thoughts on Sandy or, um, wait, did you have any thoughts on Sandy? Or Cody.

He looks. Sandy continues to look awesome. The velocity down doesn't really concern me. He didn't throw his slider in this one, which is kind of interesting because that's always been a very good swing and miss pitch for him, but he dominated. It was a little frustrating to see him, them pull him after 70 pitches in the fifth, after five innings. But I guess they probably want to avoid.

what happened in the previous start where he clearly ran out of steam at the end. Let him leave with a lead. I don't think that's going to happen. Too often both him leaving with the lead and leaving after 70 pitches, to be clear. And kind of think it was fine. I don't think there was much to be discouraged about beyond like a slightly disappointing line against the Marlins. But he looked good. It's not, I don't think he's going to replicate his rookie season,

but I think there's going to be a lot of strikeouts and useful ratios. So I'm not too concerned about the velocity being down. And our two final pitching left over, Chris Sale was cruising until the sixth inning at the Dodgers. He went five plus, three runs allowed, five strikeouts had 14 whiffs on 87 pitches. That slider was awesome in this one. And Jose Burrios looked a lot better in his second start up against the Nationals, five and two thirds, two runs with eight strikeouts in this one. Yeah.

Not much to add. I've talked about Barrios twice already. Yeah, Josei Berrios is a random number generator. Fair enough. Some hitting leftovers. Brendan Nimmo makes it back-to-back games with a home run.

Who knows, Scott? Maybe in a couple of weeks, you know, we'll be conceding defeat to you on Brandon Nimmo. CJ Abrams is making some things happen. Three for four with two doubles and his second seal.

He had two hard hits in this game. One of them, one 11 exit velocity for CJ Abrams. And the Yankees set the Major League record with 18 home runs in their first four games of the season. Jason Dominguez hit his first.

We spoke about Ben Rice, who hit his second home run of the season, and Anthony Volpe, who had his third home run. He has three hits. All three are home runs this season. Just like we drew it up. Yep, there you go. Volpe, I think, could be the player most transformed by the

torpedo bat, specifically because of the way they designed his he was not actually hitting the ball in the fat part of the bat, so they made the part of the bat where he is hitting it the fat part of the bat. And we'll see how it plays out. I mean, I remain skeptical, but I did move him ahead of Mason Win

in my shortstop rankings, just like I did Zach Netto. Jason Dominguez, by the way, he's struck out just twice so far, three walks, two strikeouts, and you like to see that from him. Unlike Dylan Cruz, who I thought would, me the safer bet to with the plate discipline.

He struck out 10 times so far, including five in one game. It was out of the lineup on Tuesday. So hopefully he turns things around soon. But so far, Jason and Ming is looking like the better of the two. So far, big caveat there. Some other bullpen updates for the Blue Jays. Jeff Hoffman struck out one for his second save for the Giants. Ryan Walker got the ninth inning with a two-run lead.

He retired the side in order for his. second save. He's pitched on back-to-back days. I would say that Ryan Walker looks like he's pretty good. Looks healthy, I think. Hopefully we're past that back injury. For the Cubs, Ryan Presley got the ninth inning with a three-run lead. He gave up a hit, but picked up his third save. And for the Dodgers, Blake Trinen pitched in the eighth inning with a two-run lead, facing 9-1-2 in the Braves lineup. And then it was Tanner Scott who got the ninth inning and converted his second save of the season. To stream or not to stream, Scott. I'm just giving you a heads up, man. Wednesday and Thursday. Not great. I don't think we're going to find much here, but on Wednesday,

maybe Jack Lighter at the Reds, Sean Burke facing the Twins, Jameson-Tayone at the Athletics, Landon Rup at the Astros, I don't know. You said some names there. People want names. You just said some.

I'm not giving any of those money. seal of approval. And lighter would be the closest thing, but no. Yeah, I don't blame you. And then on Thursday, we have a five-game slate. So there is not much going on. I just don't use anyone on Thursday. I'm not even going to read the names.

We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.