Fantasy Baseball Today - Navigating the 2024 First Round! Plus Teoscar Hernandez to the Dodgers! (1/09 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 9, 2024

The gang is back together! The Dodgers are at it again, this time with Teoscar Hernandez (6:05). ... Sean Manaea signed a two-year deal with the Mets (10:37). ... Harrison Bader also signed with the Mets (15:25). ... We had a bunch of trades last Friday, starting with Robbie Ray to the Giants (17:10)! ... How likely is a first-round pick a bust in Fantasy Baseball (30:32)? ... Let's make the case for and against Ronald Acuña and Julio Rodriguez (33:13). ... Bobby Witt nearly put up a 30-50 season in 2023 (39:25). ... Will Mookie Betts maintain this power (47:55)? ... What is the case for and against Fernando Tatis (53:41)? ... Freddie Freeman is as safe as they come (1:00:10). ... Nobody has more power upside than Aaron Judge (1:03:51). To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. All right, the football regular season is over. You know what time it is.

Welcome in Tough Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, January 9th. Look at us. The gang is back together. Frank Stample joined by Scott White. and Chris Towers. Happy New Year's Scott. First and foremost, for the listening audience, what the heck are you wearing?

I got the meat sweats, Frank. That's what I'm wearing, like literal sweats depicting meat all over them. This is a gift from a Christmas gift, from my brother-in-law, actually, who apparently takes my Twitter account

very seriously, more seriously than anyone else on the face of this planet. Because back in August, in August, Frank, August 3rd specifically, a Braves reporter by the name of Lauren Jabara tweeted out a promotional item she received from Arby's The Meat Sweets, which like is a sweatsuit, again, depicting Arby's meats all over them and I said, I've, I tweeted out, I've never wanted anything more than I've wanted the meat sweats. And so that's what I got for Christmas. It is very much like, uh, you know, cousin Eddie

on Christmas vacation toward the end of Christmas vacation describing how, you know, what he wants to happen to his boss when he's denied the, uh, the Christmas bonus and cousin Eddie takes him very literally and does that exact thing. But in this case, it was my brother-in-law with the meat sweats. So now I got the meat sweats. And I got to find opportunities to wear them. So first day back, 2024 fantasy baseball today. Here you go.

The meat sweats. Kicking it off with a bang. Is that just a hoodie or are their pants as well? Oh, their pants as well. Are you wearing the pants right now? I'm not. Because nobody. Scott's not wearing any pants.

Yes, it is the old broadcaster cliche of wearing shorts on the bottom, but that's fine. You know, I was going to make you stand up and model for everyone watching if you're wearing meat-covered sweatpants as well, but I will let you pass for now. I feel like I need to share like my favorite Christmas, my favorite Christmas gift now. Uh-oh. Oh. Chris is rolling on to the back. I got a little, I got a little ho-ho. what are the

Funko Pop A little Swiss roll So there you go I got a little food Related Christmas Yeah I mean it kind of Kind of looks like a Like poop

A little bit Yeah well I mean But he's like how happy he is That's very happy That is pretty awesome Even having had a bite taken out of them That is awesome indeed

Scott What did you get for Christmas Frank? Well there's like Any novelty food items Did you want to share My parents every year they get me this tin of popcorn that comes with the three flavors. They've done it since I was a kid and they're not stopping now. So yes, if you're wondering about novelty food items, that's one of the things that I received.

What was on the outside of the tin? Was it like New York Jets football tin? Santa. Just the classic Christmas stuff. Pretty much it. Today on the show, by the way, we've got moves to Oscar Hernandez signed with the Dodgers. Plus, we do have some smaller trades. We'll also be evaluating the first round in 2024,

making the case for and against. I know some people don't want to hear about the first round. They want to hear about deep sleepers. Don't worry. We're going to get there. So we're going to start at the top, and we're going to work our way down to the tiers and the rankings and the sleepers

and all that kind of fun stuff. There's going to be like 90 episodes of this show between now and the start of the season. Oh, yeah. No complaining. No complaining. We'll leave the complaining to March. I'm sure there will be a ton of that.

Let's start with the news and notes, and Teasca Hernandez signed a one-year $23.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. That's right. They're back at it with Otani at DH. Looks like Teasca Hernandez is projected to slot in as the starting left fielder. And a little update on the top six in their lineup.

Mookie Betz, Freddie Freeman, Choha O'Tani, Will Smith, Max Muncie, Teasca Hernandez. That is pretty awesome. Hernandez, 31 years old, coming on. off a solid season, hit 258, 26 homers, 93 RBI, seven steals. Stackcast data looks really good, but power metrics are starting to take a little bit of a step back. You know, 31 years old. I think he's still fine. ADP over the past month is 147.8 as the 33rd outfielder off the board.

Scott, my guess is that Tasker Hernandez will climb. I'm not sure how much he will climb, but he will climb. I mean, he's climbing quite a bit for me. I was probably below the consensus there. I thought Teoska Hernandez's last couple years were disappointing. You know, he's still good enough that he was worth starting, even in three outfielder leagues. But he, you know, his OBP the last two years is like 310.

Not that that's like the end all B off or fantasy stats, but like it is an indication that this player is maybe not the offensive standout that his reputation would suggest he is. but now you take him out of Seattle, not such a great place to hit. You put him in Los Angeles, the second best home run park for right-handed hitters the last three years,

not to mention the supporting cast he's now. Like he is the, Teoscar Hernandez is now like the right-handed counterpunch to that, you know, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Otani. You got Will Smith there, I know. You got Mookie Betts, but he's at the top of the lineup.

Like they needed that, right-hander there to make their lineup not so lefty-heavy. And you've got to feel like that's going to position Teoska Hernandez for potentially some huge RBI totals. He is stepping into the role that made J.D. Martinez a fantasy standout last year. And frankly, I don't think Teoska Hernandez has as far to go to reclaim his fantasy value as J.D. Martinez did it this time a year ago. So, yeah, you said he's going 33rd.

He's been going 33 among outfielders in early mock drafts. I think he's back in the top 30 now. And I went from being pessimistic about Teoska Hernandez to now optimistic about him for 2024. I will say, I think I don't know how much improvement I would expect on his counting stats from last year. When he had 93 RBI, what was it, 70 something runs, 70 runs, maybe more runs, although the low OBP is going to hold him back there. but like he's going to go from batting fourth and fifth primarily to you know like you said maybe sixth or seventh and so he's going to lose some plate appearances he had a hundred and six he played 160 games last season it's asking a lot for him to repeat that so i'm not saying that he the arrow's

not pointing up from the baseline that existed before this signing i just it's pretty rare to primarily hit in the bottom third of the lineup or the bottom half of the lineup and drive in a hundred runs I'm not saying it doesn't happen. Anything were to happen. This is a lineup where it would happen. But like, I will point out, J.D. Martinez drove in 103 runs in 113 games last year. So nearly an RBI a game. Yeah.

With JD Martinez. And that was before Otani was part of the mix. Exactly. That was before Otani too. So I hear what you're saying, Chris, like you don't want to really project more than 93 RBI for TASCOR Hernandez. But man, if there's any lineup that could pull off something, outlier in the bottom half, like 110 plus RBI, it would be this lineup. Yeah, that's fair. And last thing I'll point out, Scott, you touched on this a little bit, just the ballpark change.

Looking at Stackcast Park factors, going from Seattle, they ranked 18th in home run factor, going to Dodger Stadium, which is second. So again, that could also just improve the baseline. Maybe you project closer to 30 home runs or maybe there's a chance to asker Hanez gets a 35 home runs the season. I don't think that's- hits the ball very hard. Yeah, I don't think that's out of the question here in 2024. Let's move over to Sean Maniah, who agreed to a two-year, $28 million deal with the New York Mets. The money, a little bit surprising for me, considering Mania, hasn't exactly been good over the past two years.

Those who have listened to the podcast, the past few years, by the way, you know, I've been duped by Sean Mania before. And it might be happening again. Mania is coming off a season with the Giants where he was split between starting and as a reliever. He had a 444 ERA, a 124 whip. Obviously not great.

Did put up a career high 9.8K per 9. Why am I looking to get duped again? Well, Manaya did do some interesting things. The fastball velocity was up over two miles per hour from 91.3 miles per hour in 2022 to 93.6 miles per hour. in 2023. He also introduced a new sweeper that he used 10% of the time, and it was a really good pitch for him. 140 batting average against,

35% whiff rate. Chris, the problem is that it didn't really matter. It didn't amount to better production. I think there are some things that could change, you know, get rid of his traditional slider and just use like a fastball sweeper and change up, and maybe that can help Sean Minaya have his best season. There are some interesting things, but he's going really late anyway. Is there any interest in Sean Mania as a starter in 2024? So I think there are a couple things to look at here. One is he's cheap enough that who cares? Like it's, you know, if his price doesn't rise very much, then who cares?

It's your last pick. You're playing in a 450 player draft. He's still one of your last picks. Like there is very little cost here. We are talking, it is worth noting, about a guy who's going to be 32 in 23. days, 24 days, who has exactly a league average ERA over the course of his career, has one season with an ERA plus better than 105 in more than 29 in a third innings, 29 and two-thirds innings, excuse me, need to be very careful here. And also, he stopped throwing the sweeper

in the second half, or the, in September. He threw, I think, one in the month. In the, month of September through two, excuse me. So, and I think the other thing to keep in mind is he's a lefty and sweepers are primarily very, very good weapons to same-handed hitters. And they tend to get crushed by opposite handed hitters. So I, I don't know how much a lefty adding a sweeper jet necessarily changes how I feel about them, especially when, when I is just. We've done this so many times where it's like,

yep, but, but from July 2nd to September 3rd, and it's like, well, yeah, but then you zoom out and we've got a thousand inning sample here of a 4.10 ERA pitcher and 8.3K per 9. And that's not to say he's not valuable in baseball. That's not to say that it's not a decent signing even for the money. I mean, who cares?

It's a team with ostensibly unlimited money. it's just I put together my list of sleepers for 2024. I did not even consider Sean Monagia. And that's not to say he can't be useful. It's just I'm probably going to come across 25 starting pitchers drafted outside of the top 200 that I'd rather have. And that might be a low number. I'll also, I'll just add.

I mean, I'm not sure there's much to add to that. Dump on Sean Manaya. Well, in case you are trying to look at, you know, see the glass half full here by looking at some of his 2023 data. Prior to September, he went five plus innings three times. You said he split between starting rotation and the bullpen. Well, even when he was starting, it was not like a true starting role for Sean Manaya. So they really let him air it out for three innings at a time the Giants did. And all that resulted from that was a mid-finald.

4 ZRA. Yeah, I'm with Chris. I just think if you're looking to gamble on upside, there are much better choices out there than Sean Mania. You guys are right. You guys are probably right when it comes to Sean Mania. Just some interesting things that I noted. And last point on him, he made 10 starts. And in the 10 starts, he was actually worse than he was as a reliever last year, a 482 ERA, a 135 whip in those starts. So for whatever it's worth, the current Mets rotation, by the way, after missing out on Yamamoto, Kodai Senga, Jose Cantana, Luis Severino, Sean Mania, Adrian Houser.

Yikes. Speaking of the Mets, they signed Harrison Bader to a one-year $10.5 million deal. Not that, not sure there's much here either. Bader will play center field, which slides Brendan Miro over to left field. Bader still does provide speed. He had 20 steals in 98 games in 2023. But it comes with a low batting average.

He's dealt with a bunch of injuries. His ADP over the past month is 405 as the 100th outfielder off the board. Scott, does this matter at all? Harrison Bader to the Mets. Probably not. I was mad at myself for writing this up in the offseason tracker because I try to set a certain standard of relevance so that I don't go totally crazy

and I'm reacting to every single minor move that happens. For some reason, I reacted to this Harris and Bader signing. I mean, because of his defense, you can count on him playing close to every day for the Mets. And he has been running more in recent years. So maybe as like a cheap steel source in deep five outfielder leagues, Harrison Bader is worth drafting.

But, you know, you can't expect much more than 10 to 12 home runs. And the batting average probably is going to be nothing to write home about. And it's overall, the package isn't that impressive. It's a big upgrade for the Mets outfield defense. I would say if there's any,

impact here. It's probably just sliding Nimmo over to a corner and getting Bader, who's a very good defensive center fielder, it will make this team's outfield defense much better. Yeah, that's a fair point. For the games that he's healthy, again, Bader has dealt with a lot of injuries, but Brandon Nimmo actually graded out as a pretty good fielder too, and now he's moving over to the corner. So pretty good defense there for the New York Mets. Let's get into the trades. A bunch of them happened on Friday. I'm not sure that any of them have massive significance for fantasy, but the Giants acquired Robbie Ray from the Mariners in exchange for Mitch Hanigur and Anthony Descophani.

Robbie Ray recovering from Tommy John's surgery hoping to return in the second half of the season. So not really much to do, I guess, in a redraft league, but if you play in a keeper or a dynasty league where a player's value carries over from one year to the next, Robbie Ray, I think, is a name you should remember towards the end of your draft and maybe select him and just kind of stash him on your IR

and he could become a good keeper for 2025. So, I mean, he won the Cy Young two years ago. And he was pretty good. Well, I guess three years ago. Because it's a new year. I know if you guys know, it's 2024. It was 2021 when Robbie Rayber won the Cy Young. And he was also pretty darn good in 2022, his first year with the Mariners.

And I mean, just from a real world perspective, this, I found it surprising from the Mariners end, almost like they just wanted to, they just, need to get that money off the books. And they're pitching so good they could afford to pass up whatever Robbie Ray is when he returns. I mean, come mid-season, Robbie Ray could be a pretty big deal again in fantasy. And Giants have a good track record with veteran pitchers. So, yeah, just a name you don't want to forget about no matter how you look at it.

I think also if Jerry Depoto goes like four weeks without making a trade, his skin starts to itch. And so I think that might be part of it. Yeah, Robbie Ray, by the way, he does have a player option after 2024. That equals two years, $50 million. My guess is he's probably going to be in San Francisco in both 2025 and 2025 and 2025 as well. The other side of the deal, the Mariners received Mitch Hanigar, who looks like he's penciled into their starting right field job. He's been limited to a total of 118 games over the past two years,

constantly dealing with injuries. but it was back in Seattle, I think, probably three or four years ago now. When he had that monster season, 39 homers 100 RBI. Yeah, I'm not sure how much that matters at this point. And then Anthony Descofani, he's also been crushed by injuries the past two years. I don't know if he'll be healthy. I don't know if they view him as a starting pitcher, but... It's swing man.

They don't really have a spot for Desclavani right now. I was going to say, if he's healthy, I guess there's a chance that, like, there is a battle between him and Brian Will. Wu for the fifth starter job. I hope that doesn't happen because obviously Brian Wu has a bunch of sleeper appeal. Chris, any thoughts here? I guess probably Mitch Hanager is more likely to have fantasy value between the two. Yeah, I would think so just because Hanager is likely to open the season in a fantasy relevant role.

And, you know, if you're in a deeper league, I think there's a dice roll to be had there. I will say if you set the over under at 14 and a half starts for Anthony Descliffeani, if he's the next man up for them in the rotation, I'd probably take the old. just because all those dudes are 24, 25, and two of them are probably going to suffer serious injuries because that's what happens to starting pitchers, especially when they're in there early to mid-20s. So I think we'll probably see more of Descalfani than we want. Mitch Hanigur, by the way, the past two years, only batting 228 with a 686 OPS. The quality of contact is still there during that's been. 91.5 average exit velocity, 11.4% barrel rate. So if he

finds a way to stay on the field. It's not inconceivable that he can hit 25 home runs for the Mariners, but again, it's pretty far-fetched that Mitch Hanigur will actually stay on the field. The Mariners also made another trade. They acquired Luke Raleigh from the Tampa Bay raise for Jose Caballero, and Raleigh looks like the strong side platoon in left field. Pretty productive year for Tampa Bay in 2023. He hit 249 with 19 homers, 14 steals, and 824 OPS. Pretty impressive. quality of contact metrics as well. And the way things stand right now on Tampa Bay, it looks like it could be Taylor Walls and Caballero

in a spring training battle for their starting shortstop job. Again, given everything that we know right now. Maybe with a little sprinkle of Junior Cominero. Maybe, yeah. Who profiles more as a thoroughbase long term, but he has experienced shortstop in the minors and certainly represents an upgrade offensively over those two.

I don't think Luke Rayley is very good. He does make hard contact, but he strikes out a ton, and most of his production last year came early on. In the second half, Luke Rayleigh hit 219 with the 677 OPS. So I think

for all of Jerry Depoto's maneuvering that day, it's not going to signify much in fantasy. I think there's a decent chance he's a net upgrade over Oh my God, Jared Kelnick. I don't know if that might be a hot take, but he might just be Jared Keltman. Yeah, he might just be what they were going to get from Jared Kelnick before that trade.

Right, right, for whatever that's worth. But what I was going to say is what excites me about this trade is the opportunities it creates in Tampa Bay, now that they don't have to find at bats for Luke Rayleigh, at bats that can now go to Common Arrow. potentially, or a Curtis Mead, a bat first prospect who got a little bit of a look last year, or my personal favorite, Jonathan Aranda, I mean, they don't have a dedicated DH. So, like, Aranda and Curtis Mead, their issue is they don't really fit anywhere on the diamond, but the profile is excellent hitters. Ronda's production in particular in the miners last year was just off the charts.

And because it's Tampa Bay, you can't expect any of them is just going to take the job and run with it, play every day. They're all going to be mixed in at different places on the diamond. But there's more opportunities for all of them now. And I think that's a net benefit for fantasy, getting Rayleigh out of there. And there isn't an opportunity available for potentially another player that the Ray's acquired because they made one final trade that day. They acquired outfielder Richie Palacios from the St. Louis Cardinals

in exchange for reliever Andrew Kittred. So Palacios, by the way, the final 32 games that he played with the Cardinals, he did some nice things. Obviously, it's a very small sample. He hit 258, six home runs, two seals, in 823 OPS, some pretty good numbers in the miners as well. Rastor Resource as of now does have Richie Palacios as the Strongside Platoon at DH, but probably going to come down to a spring training battle between him and Aranda and

whoever else can actually perform and hit well. You know, the race just try to find hitters and create offense any type of way that they can. And just for the Cardinals' bullpen, you know, Ryan Helsley has dealt with injuries and Giovanni Gagos has been inconsistent the past couple of years. So it's not inconceivable that Andrew Kittridge kind of works his way in and has value at some point this year, but just a name to remember. Scott, anything on Richie Palacios working his way into that mix as well for Tampa? I mean, I don't like him as much as the other guys I mentioned.

So I would be kind of annoyed if he did. But, he is such a Tampa Bay race player. Oh, yeah. Like just walks a ton has never hit more than six home runs at any level, but probably I assume has very good bad at ball metrics. It just, this is such a raise move. And he's going to get 400 plate appearances with like an 80. 804 OPS and there are going to be 14 different times this season when he hits a home run and Frank goes,

do we need to start talking about Richard Palacios? And then you guys will probably laugh at me and tell me not to do that. Some other news here real quick, according to Jim Bowden, the Red Sox Cubs, Angels and Giants are all finalists for Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga. His posting window ends this Thursday at 5 p.m. Eastern time. So something needs to be done by then, obviously. Tommy Edmund underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right wrist in October, but expects to be ready for the start of spring training. M.J. Melendez is slated to play primarily in the outfield in 2024,

which is no surprise, 130 of his 148 games came in the outfield in 2023. Matt Veerling is the favorite to serve as the Tigers starting third basement to begin the 2024 season. And Scott, is that perhaps revealing that their prospects, Colt Keith, and or Justin Henry Malloy will not be on the opening day roster if Matt Veerling is starting at third base? Well, Justin Henry Malloy,

I think in the long run, they think of him as more of a left fielder. And there are questions about Colt Keith's eventual destination defensively, too, whether he's a better fit at second base. He's kind of stretched anywhere you put him other than first base. So it could play out

in a few days. different ways that he's already being that Matt Veerling is already being reported as the favorite I don't take as a as an encouraging sign for either Keith's or uh Malloy's chances but it'll all have to play out in spring training and I think Colt Keith especially is the caliber of prospect where you know you'd like to have him on the major league roster for his entire rookie season so that if he does uh if he is in the discussion for hardware for awards years in the next several years of his career, you know, you have a chance of scoring draft picks because of that.

All right. The Red Sox are apparently listening to trade inquiries on both Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshita. And if you're wondering about saves in Boston in case that move does happen, Chris Martin looks like the obvious next man up. I had Greg Jewett on a couple of weeks back who specializes in closers and bullpens. and he kind of speculated on Garrett Whitlock as a name to watch there. So, you know, he's been really good in the past.

If they do trade Kenley Jansen, maybe it's Chris Martin or Garrett Whitlock as the next man up. The Yankees and Marcus Drummond have mutual interest. There were other reports that indicated the Yankees also have interest in Dylan Sees and Shane Bieber and Jesus Lazzardo and I guess any other pitcher

that you can conceivably think of. And last but not least, Michael Brantley announced his retirement on Friday. Congrats to him on a successful career. A few quick notes. We are live on YouTube after a few months and we'll be here three nights per week in January and will remain live basically

through the end of the baseball season. Obviously, if you want to listen to the podcast, that will be in the audio feed. But if you want to hang out with us live and hang out in the chat and talk some crap and talk some of the other people that are here... See the meat sweats. You can see the meat sweats.

That's exactly right. You can do so at YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Make sure to like this video and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. Also, we have a five-minute podcast called Fantasy Baseball Today in Five, which serves as a bit of a spark notes,

as a summary to the full-length podcast. We will have four of those per week. Yeah, that's right. Spark notes. That's still a thing? Cliff Notes, I don't know. Kind of got me through high school, junior high school. We will have four of those five-minute podcasts

per week in the month of January, with bonus episodes dropped on Saturdays. into the FBT feed. So if you ever see a five-minute podcast in the Fantasy Baseball Today feed and trying to figure out what the heck is this, that's what it is.

FBT and 5, make sure to download and follow wherever you listen to this podcast. Let's take our first break. When we return, we will take a look at the 2024 first round

here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back in, and just before we get into the first round, I wanted to quickly point out some things that I found out, that I researched about the likelihood of your first round pick being a bust. And I asked you guys earlier in the day,

how low does a first round pick have to finish to be considered a bust? And obviously, there's no right answer. But Chris... We were very unhelpful. Yeah, very. But Chris threw out the top 75. So that's what I used here. I looked at first round ADP.

Was Manny Machado a bust last year? Just as an intellectual exercise. Would you consider Manny Machado the year he had to be? No. No, I don't think so. I wouldn't either. It's tough. Because that's one of those things where like probably not, right?

You got 176 or 166 RBI, 30 home runs. Do you feel like he wasn't great? And nobody's drafted him near round one this year. But he didn't tank your team though. Right, exactly. Like I think of a bust as somebody who was supposed to be good, but instead was bad. And Machado was still good. Yeah.

I think it's just like it's one of those things where it's also kind of like it's an emotional question. And so, like, if you still manage to finish in second place with Machado as your first round pick, he wasn't a bust. And if you finished an eighth, he definitely was a bust, even though he was the same player. Mm-hmm. So he finished, according to the CBS, 5x5 Roto algorithm, he finished 65th overall Mani Machado did. So, yeah, I don't think that I would consider that a bust. And I guess even by these top 75 standards, we just made up, he wasn't a bus either. I looked at the first round ADP over the past three years.

and then where they finish overall in each of those seasons. So during that span, eight of 36 first round picks by NFBC ADP finished outside of the top 75 in that respective season. So eight of 36, that's 22%. So you figure on average two to three first round picks will let us down, which makes sense. Not every player in the first round is obviously going to hit.

But I will say last year in particular, the fantasy community was spot on. The first round was awesome. The lowest finish was Vlad Jr. who finished 62nd overall. Nine of 12 first round picks in 2023. Finished as top 25 players. So it's a spot on.

Good job overall by the fantasy community. We got that one right. I wondered if Judge finished out of its side of that just because of the time he missed, but apparently not. He finished 48th overall. So not too bad. All right.

Let's get into the, 2024 first round. The case for and against. I guess we could also talk about like upside versus downside with some of these players. But number one, no surprise. This is based on NFBC ADP. It's Ronald Acuna. 26 years old. He just finished as the first overall player in fantasy. 41 homers, 73 steals. He earned 71 dollars worth of auction value in a 12 team league. Scott, I mean, you can make the case for. I think a more realistic question, Scott, is what is your projection for home runs and steals? he's 26 so like

theoretically he could do this again but like what is your realistic expectation for him? I don't I don't think it's unrealistic to suggest he could do it again. I know he just did something nobody has ever done before 40 home runs 70 steals in a season

but I mean we're kind of entering a new a new paradigm for stolen bases we don't know exactly how it's going to play out from year to year and more than any other player, Ronald Acuna, seemed to relish taking advantage of the new pickoff rules. And I don't see why he'd stop doing that.

I mean, he is as perfect of a number one overall pick, I think, as we've ever seen. That was the question I was going to ask, because, you know, going through this, it's not that hard to come up with the case against a lot of these guys. It's incredibly different. Like, Ronald O'Cunia will almost certainly not be as good. in 2024 as he was in 2023. He just had one of the best fantasy seasons ever.

Maybe the best ever. How far back do you have to go to where there was this? I saw Ariel Cohen tweeting about this in Kentucky Derby style. That's what it's called, right? KDS. Yeah, that's where you choose which draft slot you want. Or you put it in order, basically. You have a draft for your draft slot, basically. Has there ever, like, do we have to go back to peak Mike Trout?

Yes. to where there was this obvious of a, no, you want one, one. You don't even think about. Because like, I'm doing, we're all in the process of doing our salary cap values. And I think I have him like $7 clear of the next best player in both roto and head to head. Yeah. Hi. Think about, think about this.

That might be too low. I've never seen this before. if you take the steamer projections on Fangraphs and just plug it into their auction calculator there, Ronald Acuna is projected as a $59 player. The next closest hitter is Aaron Judge at $37. That is unheard of. I've never even seen projections like that in my life. Well, projection systems are supposed to be inherently conservative.

Yeah. So that is the case for Ronald Acuna. I guess the case against, I wrote down a few things here. I guess it would have to be injury related, right? You know, he had a torn ACL a few years back. There were a lot of scares last year. Yeah, look. There were a lot of like, oh no, not Ronald O'Kin, then he was fine.

Yeah. That seems to be his whole career. Ronald de Konya has a tendency to have very big reactions to being hit by a pitch. He's got a low threshold for pain. Yeah. I think it's also possible the plate discipline regresses. Chris, you mentioned the strikeout rate. I mean, it was otherworldly.

If it does come down, maybe he's more of like the 280 hitter he was before 2020. which with his power and speed would still make him, I think, the pretty clear cut first overall player. But let's move on to number two. Again, we do have to move a little bit quicker than we just did. So keep that in mind. We've got like two to three minutes per player, basically. Number two is Julio Rodriguez.

And Chris, I will let you start with the case for Julio Rodriguez. He's a preternaturally talented young player who has overcome poor plate discipline to be an elite fantasy option two years in a row and has also overcome slow starts two years in a row, which I think bodes well for the ability to make adjustments. And if that strikeout rate gets to like 21%, you're talking about potentially even another level that he could go to.

4040 is not likely. It's on the table for Julio Rodriguez. And that's not something that you can say for more than four players. Yeah. Julio Rodriguez went 2825 as a rookie. Followed that up with 3237 as a sophomore. Hits the ball extremely hard. I'm with you, Chris. I think the upside case here is Julio Rodriguez, if everything breaks right, could go 4040 in 2024. Scott, you get the ungodly task of making the case against Julio Rodriguez. Well, it's hard to make a case that he's going to be a bust outright. But the case against Julio Rodriguez is, just that he might drive you a little crazy relative to some of the other players you would consider in this range.

Personally, I have Bobby Witt second overall. But, I mean, to put it in perspective as late as, let's see if I could find a good example here, as late as June 23rd, Julio Rodriguez was hitting 237. Now, by the end of August, he had gotten that up to 286, which was actually higher than his rookie season. It ended up at 275, in part because Julio Rodriguez ended the year in a six for 53 slump. So, you know, he was hovering around

a little over the Mendoza line for most of the first half and really just got burning hot for a too much stretch, basically, and that was the majority of his production. And his rookie season kind of played out similarly, where people were thinking he was a bust for the first, first couple months and then Julio Rodriguez caught fire. So I guess that would be the downside case for him. You could ask for a player who's in a better lineup too, but, you know, he's still, he's still, but we'll save that case for the next guy. 103 runs, 1002, I mean, 102 runs, 103 RBI for

Julio Rodriguez last year. So I just, I don't think that's that big of a deal. So let's move on to the number three player who is Bobby Witt Jr. Scott, you just said you have measure number two player. So I think you could pretty easily make the case for Bobby Witt. Yeah. So Ronald Acuna became the third player in history to reach 30 homers and 50 steals in a season. Bobby Witt came within one steal of being the fourth player to do that. It really breaks my heart that he didn't get that 50th steel. But it just goes to show you that Bobby Witt had a historic season himself.

And it was just overshadowed by what Acuna did. and, you know, as good as he was, 276 batting average, his expected batting average, I believe it was over 300. It was like 296. Okay, so he underperformed his expected stats. And, you know, that was with, gosh, what did he hit in the second half? He had 3.01 in the second half. So, like, he was trending. As good as his overall numbers were, he was even better in the second half, and the expected numbers say he could be,

even better. It doesn't need to be any better to justify the second overall pick with that home run to steals production. But like, Bobby Witt is a total absolute stud. And everybody who drafted him in the first round last year was right, even though I told people they shouldn't. All right. The, well, it's probably make the case against, Chris, which is where you will come in. You kind of mentioned it a little bit on the, I guess the team context on Bobby Witt. Yeah, I think that's the most obvious place where he falls. short of the rest of the first rounders is just, I don't know, the Royals might be competitive this season.

I don't see much reason to think that they're going to have even better than an average offense. He plays to Justin Mason. He plays in a poor home park. There's the context around Bobby Witt is, is poorer than it is for I think any other first round caliber player, certainly the guys that we're going to talk about today. There's also just, it's not that he swings and misses a lot.

He certainly doesn't strike out very much. 21% as a rookie, 17.4% last year. He's just a very aggressive hitter. And so I do think, one, that drives the walk rate down in a way that's hard to overcome. He makes so much contact, and that contact tends to be good that it's not really a trade, a tradeoff you struggle with. But that 50 steel number would be a little easier to get to if the OBP was average, as opposed to slightly below average. That's, he's got bigger holes in his real life game, I think, than anyone else in this range.

I think Julio Rodriguez is kind of there as well. But the, the raw skills are so strong that it's, it's hard to hold it against him too much. I think it's a tier of two behind Ronald Acuna for me. Because of the plate discipline issues there for Bobby Witt and a lesser extent, Julio Rodriguez, I think both are second rounders in points league. They go from being obvious top three picks in Roto to, in my mind, like early second rounders in points leagues, in part because, like, the top tier of hitters just in general is so deep that it's easy to fixate on their shortcomings in that scoring format.

But, you know, with their Steele's production, it's just in five-by-five categories, Roto leagues, like, that's just too valuable with everything else that Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez provide. Speaking of steals, the number four player in ADP is Corbyn Carroll, who just had 54 stolen bases. He hit 285, 25 homers, finish as the fifth overall player in fantasy, the unanimous National League rookie of the year. Chris, I might have already done it for you, but the case for Corbyn Carroll being the fourth overall pick. Yeah, I think a big part of it's just he was 22 years old. He was the top prospect in baseball and he more than lived up to expectations. I think he's probably someone who making the case against him

maybe a little easier than making the case for him, but 25 homers, 55 stolen bases as a rookie, like even the underlying numbers don't necessarily back it up. I don't know how much I worry about that with a guy who's as young and as talented as Corby and Carroll. Like, I think the production will,

the underlying stats will catch up to the production, more likely than not. but like, does he maybe max out as a 25 homer guy rather than a 30 homer guy? I think that's possible. But yeah, he's a five category stud who will likely drive in more runs than he did last year as well. Scott, I've been on record saying that I will have Corby and Carroll a little bit lower in my first round rankings just because I'm worried about some of the shoulder stuff that popped up last year. It seems like that's a pretty big reason for the case against Corby Carroll. Yeah, so of the players we've gone through so far, this is the first one that actually gives me like a worry.

And it's that Corby and Carroll left the game like twice in the span of a week last July, grabbing his surgically repaired shoulder and we thought he was done for the year. And he wasn't done for the year. It was back in a matter of days. One of those times I think he was back the very next day. And so it, you know, it seems like water under the bridge now. But over the final two months of the season, he homered just four times. times.

He did add two home runs in the postseason, two home runs and 17 postseason games, which isn't, you know, like an amazing rate either. So, you know, in three months he hits six home runs, Corby and Carroll. And so even without considering the impact the shoulder had on that power production, I would say Corbyn Carroll's projected power output is among the lowest, among first rounders and then you add that concern on top of it and it's like

there's genuine bust potential here I'm not saying Corby and Carroll is a bust but you could see it happening and I think he is more so than Rodriguez and Witt he is more of a jack of all trades rather than like Rodriguez and Witt hit the ball really really hard

you know they have maybe not top of scale power but they have well above average raw power. Corbyn Carroll's more about maximizing what he has. And he's young enough that he could fill out and he hit for power in the minors throughout his career. So we're nitpicking. With the except, well, that's this exercise, right?

Because we're talking about first rounders. Yeah. Stolen bases. Like really what clenches Corby and Carroll's spot this high in the rankings is the fact that he's a 50 steel guy. And just 50 steel guys prior to this past year, 50 steel guys didn't really exist. And certainly not from first round caliber bats. And so now that you have guys who can really hit and also steal that many bases,

you're almost like obligated to draft them this early in Roto, even recognizing a Corbyn Carroll's case that he'll probably be closer to 20 home runs than 30. All right. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get into the rest of the first. round here on fantasy baseball today. Welcome back in. We're making the case for and against players in the first round. The top four picks according to ADP, Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and

Corby Carroll, which brings us to number five. Mookie Betts, who will be leading off for a lineup that includes Freddie Freeman, Shohayotani, now it's Hey Oscar Hernandez. Scott, the case for Mookie Betts at number five. I mean, the case for him is he's hitting ahead of Freddie Freeman and Shoeh Otani and is probably going to score a zillion runs because of it. There's just not a better lineup spot in baseball, and obviously it's come through for bets the past two years in a huge way,

126 runs this past year, 117 runs the year before. You know, he's not a big base stealer anymore, but the power production has actually been climbing as he's been getting older. and I mean the production, the production has been there and there's no reason to think it won't be there next year. And you add on top of it, he's now dual eligible,

second base in addition to the outfield. So, yeah, I mean, mooky bets is mooky bets. Mookie bets, 233 runs plus RBI before the addition to the Dodgers lineup. Again, he did that in 2023. Chris, the case again, against Moogie Betts at number five?

The case against would probably just be that before last season, the batting average had been in real decline, and it looked like he was no longer a legitimate plus in that category. He was more someone who kept you afloat. And that's kind of where he's been with stolen bases, and he's 31 years old. He'll be 32 probably before the Dodgers season ends this year.

It's October 7th is his birthday, So they got to make it out of the first round for that to be true. I think we're all expecting that despite the way the last few seasons have gone. But yeah, I think it's just that if the power is not elite, which it was last season, does he do enough else well to be a standout? Probably yes. But, you know, if there's any sort of, if there's any sort of age-related decline, then it starts to get a little hairier.

That being said, you generally don't profit from betting against Hall of Famers. Like, Hall of Famers have different aging curves. And Mooky Betts is a Hall of Famer. Well, I would just say that Moogie Betts has set a career high in home runs each of the last two seasons. And his elite top five status is more dependent on his power production now. And just law of averages tells me that he's not going to set a career high in home runs for a third straight season. So. But he did.

That's my downside case. I do buy the power because it came with him putting in the work with drive line in the offseason last year and vastly improved quality of contact across the board. But yeah, any regression there, it starts to get

a little hairy as a top five pick. All right. Well, number six is Kyle Tucker and he's been incredibly consistent the past couple years. Between 29 and 30 home runs, three years in a row, 25 plus steals two years in a row. Scott, I will go back to you to make the case four because frankly, I want Chris to make the case for number seven.

So you get Kyle Tucker the case four. Well, the case for Kyle Tucker, and I would take Freddie Freeman over him for what it's worth, is that he is, you know, once you get past the potential 40 to 50 steel guys at the top of round one, Kyle Tucker is probably the next best power speed threat. more like 3030, but it's still numbers that, the kind of numbers you shoot for in the first round.

And after a 2022 season in which we had questions about Kyle Tucker's batting average potential, he bounced back to hit 284. So two of the last three years now, he's hit 284 or better. And that's more in line with the strikeout numbers we've seen from Kyle Tucker, which are very low. It seems like contact hitting should be, like hitting for average should be an expectation for Kyle Tucker now moving forward in addition to that power speed output. So while he is behind those like super studs at the top of round one, he's probably the next best thing. And he finally moved up in the Astros lineup two, which paid off with 209 runs plus RBI, which was, I would venture to say that's a career high for Kyle Tucker.

if you're combining both those numbers together. Chris, Kyle Tucker here, the case against at number six. One, I think it's just he's probably the worst hitter of this first ground contingent. Like he's more of a high 800s OPS guy. Maybe

Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Wood are probably in that same range. So, but he also really gets the most out of his sprint speed. He is 32nd percentile in sprint speed. right now with a new manager in place, are the Astros going to run as much? I think that's an open question.

And if he's more like an 18 to 20 stolen base guy, then you probably need him to start hitting more like 35 homers. And that's not really something he's shown he can do. He's another guy who it's more of a jack of all trades master of none type of profile. I didn't see a report recently that the Astros want to run more. under Joe Espada. I don't know if that's actually going to happen, but I guess take that for what it's worth. I don't think Kyle Tucker could actually provide more steals than he has, but maybe it just gives you a little bit more safety and, you know, when projecting the stolen bases out for Kyle Tucker. The number seven player is Fernando Tatis, and of course I wanted Chris to make the case for because Chris was all over Tatis last year.

Chris, will you be all over him again at number seven? Yeah, absolutely. Look, I think it's possible. that coming back from the suspension and the wrist surgery last year, I think he was also coming off shoulder surgery, although that was a little more further removed. It's possible he's just not the same guy, but I think the case is very similar to Ronald Acuna, where we have an established track record of a guy

who was very clearly on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He came back from a weird season, different circumstances. Obviously, Ronald de Cune was coming back from a torn ACL, Fernando Tatis coming back from a torn ACL, Fernando Tatis coming back from a self, not imposed, but whatever the term would be, steroid suspension and also all of the injuries that were at least partially his own fault as well. Don't ride motorcycles. But I just, we know that this guy has been arguably one of the three or four best hitters in baseball in the very, very recent pass.

Now, it's back to 2021 at this point, but remember, that was 42 home runs and 24. stolen bases with a 282 batting average in 975 OPS. I don't think anybody should be surprised if he gets back to that mark. And it's another guy where 4040 is on the table given the change in rules. So yeah, I think if we're talking about Fernando Tatis as the 1B this time next year, I wouldn't be surprised at all. All right. Are you going to rank Fernando Tatis in your top five? Yes.

Interesting. Yep, he is number five for me. Now, I think that there's a tier of two with Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt at two and three in Roto. I think after that, it's like a tier of four or five. So I'm not, I'm not like way, way out ahead on Fernando Tatis. I have him with basically the same value in a salary cap draft is Corbyn, Carol, Kyle Tucker, and Mookie Betts. But yeah, he's number five for me. Scott, of all the names that we've talked about so far, there, you might have,

the most reasons or the biggest case I guess to make against Fernando Tatis going at seventh overall yeah so I would start with he hit two to Fernando Tatis hit 225 with a 665 OPS in the second half last year you know you make the comparison with Ronald de Cunia well I mean it was it was shoulder surgery it was risk surgery and it was the PED suspension for Tatis three things that individually would cause us to wonder about a player's future power production when Ronald de CUNY with the torn ACL, that's not really going to make you question future power production.

And then, you know, lo and behold, Tate's mostly fell short in terms of power output this past year. So I rank him eighth, you know, I'm, we're kind of doing this exercise where we're giving kind of the stock answer for why he'll live up to this draft spot and why he won't, as opposed to giving our personal take for what we think is going to happen. I would say, I'm not quite as optimistic as Chris that Tatis will, you know, bounce back with a better 2024. I mean, I say bounce back, but he had, what, 25 homers, 20. Yeah, still pretty good.

First round caliber player either way, I think. But I do have questions. I do have questions about whether Tatis can get back to being who he was in 2021, which obviously would have. you know, had him in Acuna in a neck-and-neck battle for best player in fantasy. Do you know what Ronald Acuna's OPS in 2022 was after July 1st? I guess it wasn't very good. It was pretty bad, friend, 728 OPS for our guy Ronald Coon. Look, I can obviously see the downsides with Fernando Tatis.

I just, I think, and look, the upside for him might not. be that much higher than it is for Holi Rodriguez or Bobby. So like the the case for him is is a little harder to make when there's other guys with that sim profile. But I I think we've seen the higher upside from him. Yeah, I think the upside for Tatis is the number two player. It's like you just can't put anyone's upside on the same level as Acuna for obvious reasons. But you're talking about outside of Acuna who has the most upside. I would argue Tatis has the, like is among that level with J. Rod and Bobby Way Jr. We have about five minutes left and we have five players left to talk about.

So, you guys will get to make the case for and against each player that I assign you. And Scott, you are up with Spencer Strider at number eight. First make the case four and then make the case against Spencer Shrider. The case for Spencer Strider is he might be the closest thing we have to an ace in this current pitching environment, which is aceless. He was well ahead of every pitcher in strikeouts last year. I think nearly 50 more than everybody.

He had three more wins than any pitcher last year, which might not be the most repeatable stat, but he has the Braves offense backing him. So, you know, there's a lot of win potential there for Strider. And just the advantage is he's going to give you in strikeouts. If you're going to sell out for anything at starting pitcher, that's what it should be for. So that's the case for Strider.

The case against is that he's a pitcher. And there are a lot of, like there are almost two rounds worth of first round caliber bats. And then there's a big drop off after that. And you probably want to secure, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, you want to, attention to pitching after that. Pitcher pitching is obviously inherently volatile. We don't know that Strider can replicate this kind of workload year after year. and so those would be the reasons to avoid him. I probably will avoid him in round one,

even though he will rank in that range for me. One of those very clear first round caliber bats is Freddie Freeman, who is going ninth overall. Chris, the case for and the case against Freddie Freeman. I think the case for him is just points at stat page. I mean, like he's basically a perfect hitter. like what does Freddie Freeman not do at like at least a B plus or a minus level? He's not even that fast and he stole 23 bases last season because he's such a smart,

heady runner. And he has been his whole career. You know, last year was a career high two years in a row now, but he's always stolen more bases than you would think and it's always been a nice bonus. The case against him is he's 34 years old and how much can you rely on a 34 year old to to be a metronomic exemplar of consistency. And can we expect 23 stolen bases? I would think more like 15 from Freddie Freeman.

And if there's any loss in bat speed, we've seen like Paul Goldschmidt, the end of his run as an elite player. He kept putting up really, really good seasons. But there were definitely some ups and downs along the way as he figured out how to age. So, you know, it could be that kind of thing where we see a down season from Freddie Freeman, then a bounce back.

That wouldn't surprise me. But there's just, there's a lot of age-related risk there. All right. The number 10 player right now in fantasy is Trey Turner. And Scott, this one is a pretty fun one, the case four and the case against Trey Turner. I just want to say Freddie Freeman's the most underranked player here by ADP is my fifth overall guy. I'm going to have them top five as well. Okay, so Trey Turner, case four, is that over the final two months, he hit 317 with 16 homers and a 1,000 OPS.

The case against is that he hit 242 with a 673 OPS in the first four months. I think, and I was, I was pretty down on Trey Turner for most of last year, certainly by the time August came around and his numbers were still where they were. You know, batting average below 250. I was kind of riding him off as a potential first rounder for 2024. But there were some underlying changes in the final two months that make me think Trey Turner that the turnaround was something that will stick for him. You look really deep in the plate discipline numbers. He was chasing less.

And I think that kind of goes along with the narrative of him putting pressure on himself first year in a new place, a big contract. that he would be more aggressive at the plate in a way that was detrimental to him. And he kind of got that under control over the final two months and looked more like Trey Turner. He is getting older in his 30s now. And his skill set, certainly being as dependent on base running as it's been, it might not age as well as we'd like. And plus being a standout base dealer isn't as unique to Trey Turner among first rounders as it used to be.

but I don't know 10th overall it's hard to make too big of a case against him he's so interesting Trey Turner in that he's still 99th percentile sprint speed and we saw him run wild in the postseason I think if he wanted to he could steal 50 40 50 bases but

it just doesn't really seem to be part of his game as much anymore like his upside case yeah I think he could get like 25 homers 40 plus steals but again that's kind of painting the the glass half full there for Trey Turner.

Number 11 is Aaron Judge, who was hampered by a toe injury this past season, limited him to 106 games. Chris, the case four and against Aaron Judge. I had a little whoopsie doodle earlier in the podcast because I said that the last, Ronald Cune had 800 plus points

in CBS standard scoring, and that was a ridiculously good season. And I said that nobody had had 700 plus since like Justin Verlander, one of his Houston years. That was a lie. Aaron Judge had 713 last year. That is the highest, I believe.

I just went through our system removes players who have retired. So it's possible that someone Albert Poulogholtz at his peak was in that range. But we're talking about like nobody who is currently active except for Ronald Acuna has had a better season than Aaron Judge did two years ago. Yeah. And last year, the quality of coffee. contact was arguably even better, which is pretty terrifying to think about. He struck out a little more last season, but average exit velocity was actually up to 97.6 miles per hour, which is, that's an average.

His hard hit, his barrel rate was 27.5%. Like the quality of contact metrics were actually better last season. So there's not much indication that the skill set was lacking. And he was still on a 50 homer pace. He's the only player, I think, who has a realistic shot in any given year at 55 or 60 home runs. The case against is he's 31 now and he's 282 pounds. And we've already seen him miss a ton of time in his career. And the one exception was, you know, the MVP season.

So it might just be asking too much for him to play 150 games. The number 12 player, we're wrapping up back to back. Yankees here. Garrett Cole, Scotty, the case four and the case against. The case four is that Garrett Cole is old reliable at a position that

made you want to rip out your hair last year because of how unreliable it was, basically at every level of the position. Garrett Cole was the most bankable pitcher and has been really since he joined the Astros in 2018.

The case against drafting Garrett Cole here is that he's a pitcher and what I was saying about Spencer Strider earlier. I just don't think it's the best use of draft capital. Also, while Garrett Cole was more reliable than pitchers in general, he didn't quite live up to his previous standards. He struck out only 9.6 per 9 after being more like 11.6 per 9 for most of that stretch that began in 2018.

his swinging strike rate was down about three percentage points too. He just didn't, by the underlying metrics, Garrett Cole didn't seem as dominant. And it makes you wonder if he kind of got away with something. You know, the track record is what it is. And, you know, the pitching landscape is what it is. So I'm not, I'm not dinging him too hard for that, but I don't personally think I would draft Garrett Cole, 12th overall,

just like I wouldn't personally draft Spencer Strider, eighth overall. All right. We started this exercise by mentioning an average of two to three players are likely to bust in the first round. So we'll just wrap up with give me the three players who of all the names we talked about today, you think are most likely to be a bust. And I'll just kick it off. For me, it's Corby and Carroll. It's injury related. The shoulder, he was fine in the postseason. Look, he could completely make me look foolish if he stays healthy. I realized that Fernando Tatis, there are just a lot of moving parts. I guess, some risk factors with him.

And I guess I'll kind of take the easy way out. I'll say either pitcher, just because they're a pitcher. But Garrett Cole might actually be more likely. The age, velocity, fastball dropped one mile per hour, year over year. Some of the underlying numbers don't really line up with him just having his best season ever and winning the Syung. So he was awesome. I don't want to downplay that.

But yeah, some of the underlying stuff just doesn't really line up. So those are the ones I think are most likely. Chris, how about for you? I'll kind of just default to the older guys. So Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge and either starting pitcher, but I think I agree with Garrett Cole. It's funny. He went from kind of underperforming his expected ERA for a couple of years because of

home run issues to then way overperforming last season. I think his ERA was like almost a run better than most of his metrics. And that might be sustainable. But given his age, given the. the apparent dip in skill set. I'll say he's a little more likely to bust than Spencer Strider. All right, Scott, you wrap us up. Take us home.

Three players most likely to be a bust. And remember, we're holding this to you to this. And October, we'll come back. We're clearly playing devil's advocate here. I'm writing this down, scratching it in my desk as we speak. You can't draft any of these players, Scott. If you do, I'll call you out. I'll make fun of you.

You're saying they're terrible. I'm going to say, and I'm kind of just playing some hunches here, I'm going to say mooky bets, I'm going to say, you know, just from the perspective, he doesn't, his power production drops off, Spencer Strider, and I'm going to say, Trey Turner. I don't know, Aaron Judge with the injury risk, he's probably up there too. I don't know, I couldn't stick to three. Sorry.

I was trying to give you new. I was trying to give different names. I'm going to say, yeah, whatever. I'll say Betts, Strider, and Judge. Scott White, he's got the meats, sweats. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.

Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.