Fantasy Baseball Today - Near No-Hitters, Ice Cold Hitters & the 2025 Crystal Ball! (9/12 Fantasy Baseball podcast)

Episode Date: September 12, 2024

Bowden Francis continues to dominate in an unconventional way (2:44). ... Bryan Woo took a perfect game into the seventh inning (12:18). ... The Dbacks put up 14 runs on the Rangers (16:41). ... News (24:21): Jose Altuve left with a right side injury. ... What do we do with these four ice cold hitters (27:49)? ... Do we like any of these waiver wire pitchers (36:55)? ... Tommy Edman and Taylor Ward are hot (45:52)! ... Let's look into the 2025 crystal ball on Cole Ragans, Blake Snell, and others (49:38). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (1:00:48). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hey, Eugenio Suarez, cannot be stopped. In 62 games since July 1st, he is batting 328 with 22 homers, 60 RBI, and an OPS over 1,000.

Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, September 12th. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we had a few no-hit-hit-perfect game bids from Bowden Francis and Brian Wu. We'll talk about those very early on. We got four hitters who've gone ice cold in the second half. What to do with those names? We are going to take a peek into the 2025 crystal ball and much more. But let's jump in.

All right. We will start with Scott. You're up. Player of the night. All right. Let's do Bowden Francis, who as you mentioned, had a no-hit bid. And it was actually the second time in 18 days that he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. The Blue Jays ended up losing the game, by the way, because Chad Green suddenly doesn't know how to get anybody out. But we're not going to get into that now.

Bowden-Francis certainly pitched well. and he's done nothing but pitch well since joining the rotation. This now makes it four starts in his last six, where he's allowed just one hit while going at least seven innings. So he has been as unhittable as a pitcher could be. And speaking as the one, probably the one on this podcast, who was most open-minded to the possibility of him actually, being a worthwhile fantasy option as soon as he joined the rotation.

I would like to revel in the success that he's had, but I feel like I'm just a little too honest for that. And because my reaction to the way he's pitching right now is there's no way Bowden Francis could possibly be this good. He may be solid, but clearly has a knack for hit prevention and pretty good control and all of that. And they know that this success has coincided with the introduction, of a splitter, which itself doesn't have

particularly impressive characteristics. But there's no way he could possibly be this good. He hasn't been missing bats at a particularly high rate. It was less than a 10% width rate, or swinging strike rate, I should say. And this one, actually, the velocity was down a couple miles per hour on his top two pitches, fastball and slider. He just is on a crazy run right now. but he can't like I'm trying to figure out what okay fine start bound in francis now we've been saying that for a couple weeks but what is this actually going to mean for him heading into next year like certainly it means he'll be drafted he deserves that but I don't feel like I want to put that big of an investment on him no matter what happens in his last three starts so it's just a weird profile right he's 28 years old he was a

basically a non-factor as a prospect. His minor league numbers are pretty bad overall. He had a decent cup of coffee last year pitching out of the bullpen mostly. And now he's had seven awesome starts, I think is the number, right? And there's basically nothing outside of this seven-start stretch in his entire major league career

or professional career that would suggest that Bowden Francis even has a little bit fantasy value. Well, I see, that's why that's where I disagree slightly because the reason I was open to Bowden Francis being solid is because you look at his ERA between the majors and minors last year. It was mid one, I think. So yeah, I understand the overall minor league history isn't that good, but it's more recent history has been good. In fair. Okay. To be fair, he had 30 good innings between A ball and AAA and then 36 good innings in the major slash. That's, I'm being unnecessarily flippant.

But my point is that I, I kind of believe in it. And not this, right? Like, it goes without saying, what was it four out of five starts? He's allowed one hit. Four out of six. One hit. And then another one of those, he allowed three hits. You don't have to say that he's not actually.

that good. Nobody is actually that good. Nobody is 138 ERA or whatever it is since he returned to the rotation. That goes without set. But above average strikeout rate, 24% for the season. Really good control, 5.6%. An average quality of contact, 361, expected Wobon contact. Again, nothing

about this run is sustainable. We are seeing a 99.9%ile from Bowden Francis. But can you throw him in the Seth Lugo mold? I think that's possible. And what we're seeing right now from Seth Lugo is like an 85th percentile outcome season,

where if everything clicks, this type of pitcher can be really, good for fantasy. I don't believe that Seth Lugo is actually this good. You know, we talked about it yesterday. He's got a 382 ERA since the Ulster break. I think that's probably closer to his talent level. And that might be close to Bounden France's talent level. But that's a viable fantasy picture. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I can I can get on board with viable. But where does viable need to be drafted next year? That's that's what top 200. Yeah. Okay. I mean, if you're talking top 200.

Yeah. On the late end of a standard 12th team draft. Seth Lugo was drafted about 250 last year. And that was with a bigger sample size last year where he had a 350-ish ERA over 150-something innings. Right. Definitely more proven. And like, Seth Lugo is not that much older than Bowden Francis.

Again, Boundin Francis is 28. Six years older. My point being that Brown, Brown Francis is not like a young guy that we should be like, ah, but he's on the, like generally speaking, like the talent probably isn't getting much better from here,

although pitchers are weird. In some ways, he's not that dissimilar from like Brian Wu, who we're also going to talk about shortly and that like he's not an elite strikeout guy, but he's got great control, good quality of contact suppression, the splitter has been a really big,

like I look at it all and it's like, yeah, it's not real, but it's not real, I guess. I don't know exactly the right way to phrase it, but I think he's probably fine. Yeah. I could be wrong about this. I don't think people are going to overreact to this end to the season for Bout and Francis going into next year.

Again, I could be wrong about that, but I could see him kind of being in that, you know, 200-ish ADP as like a mid-to-late-round sleeper, type guy who's in the Blue Jays rotation. Obviously, this stretch has been fantastic. He is an extreme flyball pitcher, and he's done a really good job avoiding barrels. So that has been the biggest takeaway. I mean, that is how he is avoiding hits as often as he is right now in Boud and Francis.

Well, he's actually, well, okay, so it's a 45% fly ball rate. I thought it was closer to 40. Yeah, that's a pretty good fly ball rate. Mm-hmm. I think more so just for this season, he's 82. percent rostered. He's only 58% started. So despite this amazing stretch, it's not like he's been in everybody's lineup. At least he wasn't this week. Bouten Francis is at the Texas Rangers next week, which has been a pretty good matchup all season long. I feel confident telling people,

yeah, they should probably have Boutt and Francis in their lineups next week. Well, and he was a one-star pitcher against the Mets this week. So you can understand why people might still be hesitant. And I wonder what'll happen if one of his final starts. he just gets bombed. Yeah. Like how much momentum will he lose for 2025 just, but just with one poor outing. I mean, we saw that happen to Spencer Araggetti, but I liked, like, the skill indicates. Yeah, I think the skill sets stronger for Araggett.

For Aragutti. So I was willing to look past that. I don't think I'd be willing to look past that for Francis. It's very much, there's a lot of reasons for skepticism with Francis that, okay, yeah, if he, if he closes out the year as strong as he's been or doesn't even. even have to be this strong, obviously. If he's just solid to close out the year, then I will be interested in him with a pick in the latest rounds of next year's draft. I do want to zoom in on this start. I know we've spent a lot of time on it, but 10 minutes on pouted, France. Yeah, and real quick, I, you might look at it and say, oh, one strikeout and eight innings. It was a fluke.

He gave up 24 balls in play in this start. Three. had an expected batting average of 500 or better. Only 7 had an XBA over 200. I want to, like, this was not just a good luck start. The Mets could not do anything against him. I just wanted to say that because that was, that was a pretty bonkers. 21 padded balls with an XBA below 500 is, I don't know if I've ever seen something like that.

And we've seen this profile work in the majors, obviously many times before where, You could limit walks. You give up lots of five balls. Yes, you will give up home runs occasionally. But like he did in this one, if you're not walking anyone, it's a solo home run in the ninth inning, which ties the game, unfortunately. But yes, this is a profile that can work for somebody like Bad and Francis. Chris, over to you from one pretty interesting outlier pitcher to maybe another in Brian Wu. Yeah, Brian Wu, I think, is one of the most interesting pitchers in baseball all of a sudden. And it's funny because early on in the season, I had very little interest in him. I thought he was,

one of the more obvious sell high candidates in baseball. And then somehow he went from never pitching deep into games, never throwing more than 80 pitches, not really getting any strikeouts, which strikeout rate is still kind of mid right now. But he's consistently pitching six innings or more, basically since the start of August, consistently going around 90 pitches.

I think it was 89 in this start. And all of a sudden that makes everything a lot more, interesting for him and a lot more sustainable because he's not a big strikeout pitcher, but Brian Wu over the course of two years and about 200 innings at the major league level has been one of, if not the best quality of contact suppressors in baseball. And he does it with an extremely low release point on his pitches. It's like fourth percentile, I think I was reading. There was a good piece on baseball prospectus.

he gets you know good the fastball's got good characteristics he's really hard to barrel up that's that's one of the things he either gets ground balls or gets weak flyouts and that's basically all brian wu gives up he doesn't walk anybody it's you know uh 2.4% walk rate and now he's showing the ability to pitch deep into games keep the pitch count up and he's not leaving every start with an elbow soreness like he was earlier in the seasons So, yeah, I don't quite know what to make of Brian Wu for 2025, but I'm a lot more interested in his long-term value than I was before the season. And what we're seeing right now is like comparable to George Kirby.

I almost said like a more interesting George Kirby because of the quality of contact suppression. Kirby gets more strikeouts, gets more whiffs. That's probably giving Brian Wu too much credit. But like, I think the ceiling is similar. So I just wrote an article yesterday, went up on the site yesterday, the 20 biggest risers of the second half, 10 hitters, 10 pitchers. And among the pitchers, Bowden, Francis was on there, but also Brian Wu was on there. And I put the first and second half stats for every player in this article. And the ratios were almost identical for Wu, first half, second half.

So like, why is he on here? Why is he a big second half riser? Exactly what you said. He was doing it four innings at a time in the first half. And now his seven longest starts of the season have come in his last eight turns. And they've all been more than six innings, not even just six innings. So if Wu's past the forearm troubles and he's able to work deep into games like this, then yeah, he's been exactly the same pitcher, no matter how long he's gone. And I think it's, it's, there's a lot of reason to buy into that.

Last eight starts for Brian Wu, a 242 ERA.75 whip, 45 strikeouts to just four walks over 52 innings, along with the hit suppression being one of the best at that. The control. I mean, just four walks in this eight start stretch and all season long. I mean, that's just, that's been a calling card for, for Brian Wu is the ability to throw strikes and, yeah, avoid giving up lots of hits. Somebody on Twitter asked me how I would rank the merit. starters for next season. And I thought it was a really interesting question. My response was, and this is subject to change, whatever. It's September 12th, but Logan Gilbert, Kirby, Castillo,

Bryce Miller, and then Brian Will. And I added, I think all five of them can be drafted as top 40 starting pitchers next year, which is crazy. Yeah, I think that sounds right. Gilbert and Kirby will probably be top 12 for me. So there's, and I guess Castillo wouldn't be far behind, probably top 15, 16. So then there will be a little bit of a gap between those two and Bryce Miller and Brian Wu for reasons of provenness and strikeout upside mainly.

But yeah, I think they'll all be top 40. That's obviously the best starting five in the majors. Yeah. All right, players of the night for me, I'm just going to highlight the D-backs who clobbered the Rangers here, I guess getting their revenge from the. World Series, 14 to 4, 14 runs on 16 hits, including four homers. Kittel Marte, 3 for 4 with the double and his 31st homer of the year. These were actually his first three hits since coming off the IL on September 6th.

Corbyn, 2. Carroll, 2 for 5 with a double, a triple, two runs scored, continues his massive second half. Adrian Del Castillo, 2 for 4 with his fourth home run and 3 RBI.I. He had slowed down recently, previous 12 games, a 200 batting average, 34% strikeout rate for Del Castillo, the playing time had fallen off as well. Down to 29% rostered. I know this was obviously a great game, but is Del Castillo now dropable in a two-catcher league?

Two-catcher, are you... Yeah, if you see somebody more interesting, I'm not sure there is anybody more interesting in a two-catcher league. I think Joey Bart's roster rate is pretty similar. I'd rather have Joey Part. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

No, just for no other reason, because Del Castillo, this was the second game he started in five. And so once you lose your playing time, he could get it back. You can get back if he goes on a tear here. But I don't think there's going to be a lot of people rushing to pick them up if you drop them. So, yeah, that's fine.

And at the top, I mentioned the numbers for A. E. E. E. Hennio Suarez, who legitimately has been one of the best hitters in baseball since July 1st, 4-4 with a double dung on Wednesday. Four runs to RBI. And the overall numbers, he's now up to 28 homers on the season. season, 92 RBI. OPS gets over 800 for the season. There's not really much else to add, I mean, or actionable, I guess, on A. Eugenio Suarez. You're obviously starting him if you have him on your

fantasy team. It's just, man, night and day between the first three months to boom, once July first hit, a completely different hitter from Suarez. And especially this is, I mean, we haven't seen a lot of good stretches from him the last couple of seasons. You know, he's, he's out of entering today he had a 422 Wobah over his previous 62 games that was the that was the sample size you were going with right uh it was yeah last 62 since july first he has not had a stretch this good since that 2019 season when he had 49 homers and led the led the n allen homers so yeah it was there was no real reason to see this coming the mariners just dumped him this off season.

Like this is one of the more surprising turnarounds I can remember in recent years. And I don't exactly know what that means for 2025 for Ehayu Hennius Suarez because, okay, clearly he's been in terms of statistical improvement, one of the biggest improvers. I left him off of the 10 risers among hitters because I'm not sure how much, how enthusiastic I'm actually going to be to draft him next year. I mean, certainly his value has gone up. He's gone from being undraftable in all likelihood to somebody who's going to get drafted for sure. But he's going to be 34 years old with a very spotty track record. I presume he's going to be back with the Diamondbacks. They have a team option. I don't know why they wouldn't exercise it. And so how confidently are you going to draft him as you're starting third baseman? Not much.

I think he's a corner infielder still. Even with this stretch. By the numbers, he deserves to be a starting third basement. But yeah, I wouldn't want him as mine. I will say his strike rate over this 62 game stretch down to 23.6%. Also, it's been since 2019. Yeah.

And the exit velocity, the average exit velocity, has improved since July 1st 2. So it's not just the surface level numbers. And who did the debacks do all this damage off of you? Well, Chris, you were right yesterday to bench Cody Bradford because it was a rough one. Three and two-thirds innings, eight runs allowed, three homers allowed in this one. And if you believe in the he was due for a bad start type thing, that's exactly what happened here with Cody Bradford. He's still 65% rostered and 45% started.

Will he remain in the rotation, which sounds like a crazy question, but Rocker getting called up, DeGrom and Scherzer returning? Yeah. I don't know. I was looking at that today because they said they were going to give Jack Lighter a lot of runway. But you'd think he'd be out of the rotation with everybody returning and Kumar Rocker coming up. So I don't know exactly how this is going to shake out. As I pointed out a few times in the last week, the Rangers have the most pitcher-friendly schedule remaining. Once this Diamondback series is passed, it's all good matchups for pitchers.

So if I picked up Cody Bradford, hopefully not for this start, but if I picked him up, I would like to hold on to him. I mean, he may line up for two starts next week, Blue Jays and Mariners, and I think he'd be a good play. You know, he got knocked around in this start, good offense. He gave up three home runs, and you know, fly ball pitcher, that's the other side of the coin. They're going to be games where they don't give them many hits, but then there are going to be games where they get burned by home runs. And this was obviously the latter for Bradford. but I still think he'd be a good play with good matchups if he remains in the rotation.

I want to give in, oh my goodness gracious, shout out to the Dodgers who hit four home runs in the first inning off of Jordan Wicks. Otani hit his 47th. Edmund hit his third home run and then Edmund would later hit his fourth home run. We'll talk about that later on. Will Smith hit his 18th and Max Muncie hit his 14th home run.

Otani also stole another bag later in the game, so now he's up to 47 homers, 48 steals. on the season. Let's take our first break and when we return, we'll hit some news and notes. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in news and notes. Jose Altuva left Wednesday due to right side discomfort and he seemed to be in a decent amount of pain after a swing in the fifth inning. Manager Joe Espada said after the game that he doesn't believe the injury is serious, but an oblique injury this late in season could be pretty tricky. And if you're still playing for anything at this point and you have Jose Altuvae on your team, you might, you might be

might need a second base replacement, so just keep that in the back of your mind. Ronaldo Lopez was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation. He left Tuesday start after just one inning, and his velocity was way down in that start. Kyle Schwerber was scratched from the lineup as he continues to experience soreness in his left elbow. Justin Steele threw a bullpen on Wednesday his first time throwing off a mound since going on the IL last week. He's slated to throw another bullpen over the weekend. Tay Oscar Hernandez returned to the lineup after missing four straight with a left ankle contusion.

Brendan Lau returned to the lineup after missing five straight with a sore finger. J.T. Rilumuto is expected to rejoin the Phillies lineup on Friday. He's missed five straight with a left knee contusion. Turns out Connor Norby was scratched

on Tuesday due to left foot soreness but was back in the lineup here on Wednesday. I believe he went over four in that game. Merrill Kelly left his start on Wednesday due to right hamstring cramping and he is expected to make his next start in the rotation. Jason Dominguez was out of the lineup against the lefty, Cole Reagan's,

and despite being a switch hitter, Dominguez does have some pretty bad splits against lefties in his minor league career, so I think this is what we probably should expect, at least for the rest of this season, is Dominguez playing against righties, but probably not against lefties. Chaz McCormick is headed to the IL with a fracture in his right hand. Edwin Usseta has been suspended for two games after it was determined he intentionally, hit Nick Castiano with a pitch on Tuesday. The Padres optioned Luis Campusano to AAA, and it's been a pretty rough season.

Big step back from 2023, where, you know, entering this year, we kind of looked at him as a, you know, potential sleeper, breakout candidate, has some prospect pedigree. Clearly did not work out here for Luis CampuSano. The Padre has placed Martin Perez on the paternity list, which means he'll miss up to three games, and the Big Maple, he's hanging it up. James Paxson plans to retire after this season. There was lots of news there. Is there anything that you guys wanted to touch on before we move?

Well, yeah, that may be how it plays out for Jason Dominguez. Doesn't Alex Verdugo bat left-handed? Yes, basic knowledge. Yeah, but it was in the lineup here over here. Yeah. So a lot of times managers make a distinction between tough lefties versus just run-of-the-bill lefties. Cole Reagan's would obviously qualify as a tough lefty. So I'm not totally sure we'll never see Jason Dominguez play against the lefty,

but clearly, you know, as I pointed out when he was called up, it's not a fork on conclusion that he's going to play every day. I'll also just point out, it kind of goes without saying, but Raynaldo Lopez, even in a best case scenario where he misses the minimum amount of time, you would get one start out of him. that's if he comes back immediately. So I think you can go ahead and drop him. Okay.

Yep. Let's take a look at four hitters who have gotten ice cold in the second half. And no one likes a cold burger. Jake Berger, 0 for 4 with a strikeout here. Last 21 games, 171 batting average, one homer in OPS around 500. Strikeouts, not an issue during this stretch,

but he's just not hitting the ball as hard and a decent amount of ground balls. We know in July and, August, Jake Berger was one of the hottest hitters in baseball, but here has cooled off in September. Still 86% rostered. You think Burger could be dropable in some shallower formats? Oh yeah. Yeah, sure. Yeah, underlying numbers aren't quite as bad, but they're definitely not as good as they were in July and August. So yeah, I think you can go ahead and drop them. The rest of the names on this list are much higher profile, and I don't think they were going to

drop any of them, but you might think about benching. I did not realize how bad some of these these guys have really been. But Stephen Kwan, two for four, with two runs scored on Wednesday. His second half, 198 batting average. Four homers, seven steals. Okay, that helps. But a 578 OPS. I mean, maybe it's just regression because he was so, so hot in the first half of the season.

But, man, Kwan has really cooled off. What are we doing with him? Yeah, remember, he was batting 352 at the All-Star break. So it's been... quite the disparity between the first and second half. I noticed his fly ball rate is up in the second half, so maybe he's just hitting into too many easy outs. I think for the remaining players on this list,

like you shouldn't get too caught up in streaks. And I know it's long streaks in this particular case, but things can turn around instantly like we've seen with Tyler O'Neill this week. like if if if you buy into the players-based talent level you buy into him being somebody who's who's must roster clearly too valuable to drop

then for the most part you kind of have to write him out I'm not saying I'll never make exceptions but it would have to be a pretty good exception in Kwan's case he was both enjoying a skills breakout in the first three months of the season

his ex-Woba in all three months was 344. He didn't have a single month in either of his first two seasons that was better than that. And he was playing well over his head in addition to that. He had Wobas of 382, 519, and 437. He was outrunning his Wobah by 80 points through the first three months of the season. He has more or less played to his expected Wobah over the past, couple of months. So I think what you're probably just seeing is a little bit of regression in both terms of the word. I think at the end of the day, my expectations for him aren't going to be

that much different in 2025 than they were in 2024. I think the power improvement has been nice to see, but we're going to get to the end of the season and he's not going to be that much better than he was in 2022. So I think it was probably just a random hot streak. And like you said, he's hitting a lot of fly balls. The average launch angle is up to 20% or 20 degrees in the month of September. So might have just fallen for the power binge a little bit. But I think on the whole solid player, not the superstar he looked like.

And it's funny the way that these numbers even out, because the overall stat line, 290 batting average, 780 OPS, I would say that's probably the expectation that I have for Stephen Kwan. Just when everything is going normally for him, yeah, really good batting average, solid OPS, he'll get on base. You know, I think it's probably more of like a 8 to 10 homer profile

maybe moving forward and like 20 plus deals. And that's an okay player. And, you know, he's probably much better in a points league. But yeah, I just, I think that's probably the expectation. if we're talking, you know, next year and beyond for Stephen Kwan. Like a third outfielder, borderline second in a points league.

Yeah, I think that's fair. CJ Abrams launched a home run here, but he has also had a really bad second half. 176 batting average, five homers, 13 steals. The power and speed is obviously, you know, still kind of helpful there. Five homers, 13 steals,

but a 522 OPS. He's another one. He's just hitting way too many fly balls. 50% fly ball rate in the second half, not hitting the ball with authority, it just seems like maybe he's hitting a lot of lazy fly balls that aren't really turning into anything here.

But yeah, I mean, this is another dynamic player. You're obviously not dropping him. And it wouldn't surprise me if he gets hot again for the final couple of weeks, but... Yeah, I mean, obviously had the big homer today. It's funny because his, at least if you're going by fan grass data,

his fly ball rate is up in the second half, but so is his ground ball rate. It's his line drive rate that has gone to 7%. Yep. So it's just suboptimal contact all the way around for C.J. Abrams. But for the most part,

it's the same amount of contact. The strikeout rate is up a little bit. I think it's, you know, like I just said a minute ago, it's a more extreme case of ups and downs of the season and that it's been a very long down. But I think that's basically what it is. And C.J. Abrams is still a must-star player

in my eyes. Yeah, I think his swings probably a little wonky. You know, like you said, fly ball and ground ball rate both up. That's not what you want. No. Just as a general rule, it means you're not hitting any line drives. And line drives are still the best thing you can do as a hitter. So, yeah, like the, you know, he's got a 198 bab up in the second half.

Well, his XBA in July, August, and September is 190 or lower. So he's just not hitting the ball well right now. But one thing I will point out is there was some hand-wringing about his poor stolen base totals early on and about how he was getting caught, stealing too much. He's 13 for 15 on steals in the second half. So that's a good sign. I think you're still looking at a guy who, you know, he's got, what, 30, 28 stolen bases. He's probably going to get to like 35-ish. I think you probably still feel,

still feel like he's a 40 steel guy next year. The bat is a question, though. It was a question coming in. Looked like he answered it. Now we're getting a very different answer in the second half that, I don't know, makes me think he's probably more like the guy we drafted him as before this season. So a top 50-ish pick in Roto,

but probably not the top 25 pick. It looked like he was going to be. Yeah. And it's still relatively, early in his career, but I think we've maybe seen enough to conclude that he's just going to be a really streaky player for fantasy. So if you're playing head-to-head formats where like consistency matters more, even head-to-categories, maybe he's a player you devalue a little bit in that format. But yeah, in Roto, I think most years, when you look at up at the end of the season, you're probably

just going to have pretty solid power and speed numbers there from C.J. Abrams. Somebody on Twitter asked us to talk about Royce Lewis, admittedly, a name I haven't looked into in a while. And in 42 games since returning from the IL in late July, he's betting 21 with six homers, 28 RBI, and a 685 OPS. And another one where the line drive rate is really low during that stretch, fly ball rate is up, quality of contact is not good. So kind of feels like, again, maybe he's trying a little bit too hard to lift the ball and hit for some power. I mean, as is always the case, you wonder if is Royce Lewis playing through something right now? You know, he's been on the aisle a few times this year.

And, you know, he's another player where the talent levels is so massive. Can you really tell someone to bench him over the final couple of weeks of the season? Probably not. Yeah, it's, this is the most difficult one for me because as good as he's been for stretches, the sample was always so small that I don't know that we were. really have a good idea who Royce Lewis is yet. And at the end of this season, with the way this stretch is gone for him, the data is not going to look that good.

The stackass page isn't going to look that good. It's, you know, clearly going to be worse than last year. I think he's probably closer to must start than not when he's healthy, but I'm not as sure what we're looking at with him. So you got to weigh your options, obviously. I don't think you have to keep him. in your lineup, but in most cases you're probably going to want to. And that is Royce Lewis. Let's move on to some Waverwire pitchers from Wednesday's action.

And the first group includes Shane Boz, who was solid at the Phillies. He's five and a third. Two runs allowed with four strikeouts. Jake Irvin took a no-hitter into the sixth inning up against the Braves. Six innings, one run, five strikeouts for him. His previous 11 starts, a 690 ERA and a 158 whip. Dean Kramer had himself a strong outing at the Red Sox, seven innings, two runs, only One of those earned seven strikeouts, 17 whiffs on 103 pitches for Dean Kramer.

And last six outings, he's actually been really good. 262 ERA and a 117 whip. And of course, Matthew Boyd, how many times does this happen where we tout a pitcher against the White Sox where it just looks like it's lining up so well. And then it just doesn't happen. Four in a third innings, four runs, only one of those earned. The Guardians had three errors behind him in this game. still had nine strikeouts, 17 whiffs.

Normally we reserve Waverwire pitchers for good performances here, but the overall numbers are still good for Matthew Boyd, and it looks like he lines up for a two-star pitcher next week. So 60% rostered there for Matthew Boyd. Quickly just mentioned the matchups, Boyd is home against the Twins at the Cardinals. Dean Kramer is home against the Giants. Jake Irvin could be a two-star pitcher at the Mets and at the Cubs.

And then Shane Boz looks like versus. versus the Red Sox and the Blue Jays next week. So Chris, I'll give you the first word here. Four pitchers. It looks like three of them could be two start options. Yeah, I can't say I'm super excited about any of these guys in a Roto league, at least for next week and the next two weeks. Baz, I think there's still a lot to like in the long run.

But 7.5K per 9, a 427 FIP, and then two of his final three starts are versus Boston, I think I'd prefer to avoid him. And in at least one league, I sat him this week with just the one start against Philadelphia. So I definitely don't think Shane Boz is a must roster pitcher and certainly not a must start pitcher with those matchups. Of the rest of them, I'm varying degrees of uninterested in all of them. Irvin has been really up and down with some really high highs, but given how bad he been prior to this.

I don't think I can look at at New York, Matt's, at Chicago Cubs next week, and think that he's anything more than a head-to-head-point streamer. Kramer might actually be the one I'm most interested in for streaming, but even that.

He's been on a nice run lately as Kramer. And I feel like he's one of those pitchers who ensnares me repeatedly when he has a good stretch like this and then I recommend him for his next few starts and they're not good and then he goes on another run like this but he is on a good run right now last six starts

262 ERA 117 whip 8.4 K-per-9 for Dean Kramer who has a good offense backing him tends to go deep into games when he's pitching well Giants is a pretty good matchup he might be among my sleeper pitchers for next week but the one of these four that I can

commit to absolutely being a sleeper pitcher for me next week is Matthew Boyd with the two starts, one of them being a good matchup against the Cardinals and a guy who has pretty good strikeout upside. It was weird in this start against the White Sox, how he hardly threw his slider. Yeah.

Which I believe was his most used pitch in his great, it was his most used pitch in his great start against the Dodgers last time out. And then he just hardly threw it. in this one, so that was weird. But for it being a disappointing start, he's still got nine strikeouts and four in a third inning. So it wasn't like a total loss for fantasy.

And again, two-star week next week. I think I'd stick with Boyd for at least one more lineup period. Three names in deeper leagues. Bailey Falter was awesome up against the Marlins, seven and a third shutout innings with five strikeouts, 20 whiffs on 93 pitches. Lance Lynn, solid in his return against the Reds, five innings, one run, seven strikeouts.

And Joey Estes turned in a quality start at the Astros, six and two thirds, three runs allowed with two strikeouts. And in the second half, Estes has a 329 ERA, a 106 whip. I'll say it again. Every time he pitches, the underlying numbers do not buy it at all, but he keeps pitching well. I don't really know how. Any of these names matter in 15-team Roto leagues are deeper.

Estes, Lance Lynn, Bailey Fulton. No, I don't think so. Yeah, no. I do want me to say I could probably come up with more things to say, but I was worried that Scott was going to like say something positive about one of these guys, but I'm glad he didn't. Yeah, totally fine with me. Joey Estes has a really high fly ball rate and sometimes that can lead to good starts. Like really high. You were talking about Brian Wu being high and.

and Boundam Francis being high. Joey Estes is considerably higher than that. Week 27 at Seattle, I could be talked into streaming Joey Estes for the final week of the season. All right. Wanted to mention with Bobby Miller still rostered in 52% of CBS leagues.

I realize there's probably a good amount of people who are not paying attention to fantasy baseball at this point in the season. If you are one of them and you have Bobby Miller and it's not a Dynasty League, I think you could probably drop him for almost anybody we talked about. He still throws 97 to 99 miles an hour.

And his fastball stinks. He got two whiffs. He got 92 mile per hour average axis velocity against it with today. Like it's just, it's so weird. Yes. But it's been the case all season. Both of his fastballs were very bad again today. So, yeah, Bobby Miller.

But I might be interested in him next year as a post-type sleeper, but yeah, you can drop him. Well, I was going to say, a bad fastball can be a fatal flaw for some pitchers. I don't think it is in Bobby Miller's case, which is why his rookie season was so good. He doesn't lean on his fastballs as much as you'd think for a young guy who throws that hard, and he has a deep secondary arsenal. So I don't know that the fastball is to blame. for his bad season, but it's not getting any better. It's not helping. Yeah, sure.

And I think we're pretty much done with him until next season. He's going to be a fascinating player to talk about in the off season. I do wonder the shoulder injury that popped up early on. How much did that contribute? Did that just cause a loss season here for Bobby Miller? I think it's entirely possible. Maybe I'm just making excuses for the guy. Who knows?

Let's take our final break. and when we return some waiver wire hitters, we will take a look into the 2025 crystal ball. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in some waiver wire hitters from Wednesday's action in the shallowest three outfielder leagues. Four names, Lane Thomas, has picked things back up in September,

batting 405, three homers, 13 RBI, and 1178 OPS. Kerry Carpenter had himself a big game, four for four with a double, a triple, a run, and an RBI. 23 games since returning from the IL 313 batting average, six homers, and an OPS just over 1,000. Taylor Ward stayed hot, one for four with his 23rd home run, having a big second half here.

And Tommy Edmund is really coming alive, back-to-back days with a double-dong, four home runs over those past two games, and in 21 games with the Dodgers, a 300 batting average, four homers, five steals, and 821 OPS. Scott, how are you ranking this group? Maybe for next week, I don't know if you have the matchups at hand yet,

but off the top of the dome, Edmund, Taylor Ward, Carrie Carpenter, and Lane Thomas. Well, since I last week looked ahead at the final three weeks, which teams had the best upcoming matchups, I can tell you that both Taylor Ward and Tommy Edmund were among the hitters I recommended picking up for the final three weeks. I don't know exactly how the second. of those final three weeks worked into that, but I think they're probably the most interesting,

too, on this list regardless. Ward, mostly because we've seen him have streaks like this, where he looks like a must-start outfielder, and it lasts for several weeks, and then he disappears for a few months, and then he comes back and has another stretch like this. It's usually at the start of the season and at the end of the season.

Here we are in September. It's happening again for Taylor. Ward. So I'm going to I'm going to trust in that to some degree and Tommy Edmund in a great lineup can start them at like three different positions I think. Yeah. Obviously going to provide you some speed and has looked exactly like Tommy Edmund since coming back from that wrist injury that sidelined him for so long. So I think he's startable if he happens to fill second base shortstop or outfield to need one of those three positions. Three names in deeper leagues.

Mike Yistremski has picked up the power lately last 15 games. He's got six home runs and an OPS over a thousand. Tommy Pham, who I think I've mentioned every day this week. He likes hitting for the Royals so far. Three for four in this one. He's batting three 17. Two homers, one steal, 876 OPS in 10 games with Kansas City. He has let off all of those.

And Trey Sweeney, who was recently called up by the, Tigers. He's done some nice things here, one for four with his fourth home run. He's got two steals, a 756 OPS so far. Chris, any of these names, catch your attention in deeper formats. Yistremski, Tommy Fam, Trey Sweeney. Sweeney, just because he's young and has some prospect pedigree, is moderately interesting, but I don't think he really matters in any mixed leagues outside of maybe really deep 15 teams. but next week they have two left-handed pitchers on the schedule. He hasn't played against lefties much,

so might not play every day next week. And I think Tommy Fam is probably worth picking up in categories leagues. He's leading off for a very good lineup. He's hot right now. He's got a little bit of speed. I think Tommy Fam at 19% is probably too under-roastered. Okay. Let's take a peek into the 2025,

Crystal Ball. Look at us, Chris. We're right on the same page. I grabbed this off my shelf. A, uh, Mark, can you see that? Mark Trumbo signed baseball.

Don't ask me why I have a Mark Trumbo signed baseball. But we are looking into this crystal ball for 2025. I got this one at the Jackie Robinson Museum. Ah, very nice. Uh, so I'll just ask you some questions pertaining to, uh, next year. Have a little fun with it.

And first up, Cole Regans or Blake Snell. I think this is a pretty fascinating discussion for next season. Both had pretty good starts here, and both have lots of strikeout upside. Both maybe walk too many batters. Obviously, Snell has the longer track record here. What do you guys think?

Cole Regens or Blake Snell for 2025. I think this is actually a fairly easy call. Oh, okay. It's got to be Regens, right? Does it have to be... Yeah, I think it has to be him. If only, like, we know the Blake's snail experience. And we know that the person who drafts Blake Snell,

even if the numbers at the end of the season are pretty good, the person who drafts Blake Snell is very rarely happy about having done so. And like, we can say, hey, Blake Snell is going to have his ups and downs. But at the end of the year, you're going to be happy you had him. You know what's actually a lot. harder to do is sit there when Blake Snell has that nine ERA stretch and say, it's fine. He's going to be great. We go through this every year. People drop him every year. I just, I think you have to draft

Cole Riggins ahead of him. Yeah, I agree. Whoever drafts Blake Snell leads the league in ulcers and you'd rather not put yourself through that when Reagan's himself is a borderline ace. I mean, he might end up leading the majors and strikeouts, right? He's up there with Chris Sale and Tarek Scouple. I think it's kind of a three-horse race. So, yeah, I guess, I mean, I do hold out hope that one of these years, Blake Snell is going to be just kind of fine from the start of the year. And then the upside is probably higher than it is for Regens.

And he turned it on if we're just doing number of starts. we're not doing number of months past, because obviously he missed a lot of time with injuries, but if we're just doing number of starts before he turned it on, it wasn't nearly as many these last two years as it was the previous two. So maybe it's not going to be as bad,

but I'd just rather not take the risk. I'd rather be the one who looks to buy low on Snell when the guy who drafts him is panicking. Luis Heel, solid start up against Kansas City, five innings, one run, five strikeouts, 12 whiffs on 97 pitches. We've talked a ton. about how his innings have jumped up so much this year.

He's going to be a fascinating one. The Crystal Ball. Luis Heel will be drafted as a top blank starting pitcher next year. I'm going to say 50. I don't think it's going to be... We were saying Bryce Miller and Brian Wu will crack the top 40. That's all we were giving them.

And I'd rather have both of them than Louise Heel next year, given the... very short outings we've seen the past couple months. Maybe I shouldn't have put the very in front of it, but more five-inning outings than six-innings-in-outings and control issues and, you know, just hasn't been that impressive since the first half, really. Yeah.

I don't think that's egregious. I was going to say top 40, and I think ranking him around Bryce Miller or Brian Wu, in my head, it just kind of makes sense right now, but yeah, we'll have more off season to figure that out. I was going to say top 30,

but not by me, was going to be my answer to where he gets. Wow, that's very optimistic. That's not where I'm going to rank him. But I just like, I think the distinction between Wu and Miller and Heel is the strikeouts. And strikeouts are usually a stand-in for upside.

And I think Heel is going to get the best, benefit of the doubt there, and especially because he's going to end up throwing about 150-ish innings. And I think people are going to look at that and say, well, yeah, now you can project them to 180 and 230 strikeouts and really gody numbers. And I, I think there's a decent chance that just falls apart on Louise Heel, whether it's performance or injury related. So, yeah, this is interesting because I'm not sure I've looked at the full stat line for heel in a while. As the season's going on, I tend to go game by game. and there's a real emphasis on the game log for me,

and the game log for heel just doesn't look that good and hasn't for, like I said, a couple months. But the overall stat line, not taking into account today's game, 324 ERA 116 whip 10.4K per 9. I mean, that looks great. That looks like Luis Castillo, if you're not paying any attention to volume. Yeah, that's why I do think he'll be another fascinating player

for this offseason again. He does lead the majors and walks, despite not having that many innings. Let's take a look at Wyatt Langford, who is looking to finish strong here. Two for five with a run scored. Last 18 games, a 304 batting average, three homers, three steals, hitting the ball much harder. Barrel rate is up. Sometimes it just takes time for these young players to figure things out. I know we wanted him to be a superstar right away.

It did not happen. Another one, Wyatt Langford, will be drafted as a top blank outfielder next year. top 40 I think that's right I'm going to say top 36 it's a small distinction but it puts them in the 12 team three outfielder starter range

and that's where I think he belongs I'm actually writing a bold predictions for 2025 article now and one of it's going to be 20 bold predictions unless I get tired and cut a short I have a list of 20 bold predictions right now And one of them is that Wyatt Langford will outperform every rookie hitter. Obviously, he himself won't be a rookie hitter anymore.

But I think there's enough promising there in the underlying data that I expect him to take a big step forward as a sophomore and basically live up to the expectations we had for him this year. So I think it'll be top 36 where he's drafted. And I think he'll outperform that. So that would be everyone in the minors. That would be Dylan Cruz. that would be Jason Dominguez Julius Cominero

Oh, okay And Junior Cominero I had one of the bold predictions I'm just going to give away the whole article Top five third baseman next year And yet I still think Wyatt Langford will be better

Because I think he'll be like a top 15 outfielder When all of a sudden done I think the speed helps there Camerro is going to be a zero there I want to give a shout out Scott This time last year Your Bull predictions Terrick scubble to win the ALSai Young

Award. I looked at the last, because I kept saying I was predicting that since last October, but I looked up last year's version of this article. It was written in September and the very first one, Derek Scouple wins A.L. Sy Young, some others that were on there since you brought it up. Chris Sale gets back to being a 200 strikeout pitcher. This is the best one. Alec Berluson is the best outfielder on the Cardinals.

That was in last year's bold predictions article. Nice. Yeah. Do I still have it pulled up? I don't think I do. But there are some other good ones in there. Hey. The majority were misses because that's how bold predictions work.

But there are some pretty impressive ones. That's impressive enough. I mean, you called the following season Sayung Award winner in September of last year. I would say that's pretty good. Last one on the crystal ball front, Francisco Alvarez. One for four with his seventh home run,

three RBI in this one. I don't know what to make of him for next year. Maybe he's just been banged up this entire season. He had a torn ligament in his thumb, some shoulder soreness in July. He's now played 214 career games. He has a 218 batting average and a 702 OPS. Does Francisco Alvarez.

What are we thinking? Alvarez next season. I think the injury hypothesis makes some sense, but I will also say that there have been some extremely, disappointing quotes from like the Mets hitting brass, like the coaches and whatnot about Francisco Alvarez. I don't know what the exact quote was. I saw it a couple of weeks ago,

but it was basically like, we know he can hit for power. What we want him to do first is hit for average and figure out how to make contact and then the power. And like, okay, in theory, yeah, I guess. but like it really seems like they've neutered the biggest strength in Francisco Averis' game. He's just not hitting the ball with authority at all this season. He's not hitting the ball in the air.

He's not hitting the ball to the pull side. He's not doing any of the things that you want a power hitter to do. I still think, I mean, he's still 22, right? Like, he's still very young. So I don't want to write him off. He's a very young prospect or very young catcher. Catchers take longer to develop generally. but I'm, it's been a very disappointing second half, especially for Francisco Alvarez.

Yeah, 22 years old, we'll turn 23 in November of this season. I'm thinking top 15 catcher. I'm going to say top 12 just because there aren't enough good ones to round out the top 12, so I'll probably chase the upside at the end there. I opened last year's article. Cole Regens leads the AL in strikeouts. That may happen. Wow.

He's right there. You got it wrong, Scott. I mean, you can't take credit for that. Michael Bush gets traded somewhere and thrives. I don't know if we call what he's doing. He's doing thrived. He's going to finish with like 24 homers and, you know, decent RBI, right? That was a two-parter, though, because I said Jonathan Oranda would get traded somewhere and thrive to it.

Oh. By the way. Bush only has 17 homers. Jonathan Aranda had a huge game here Wednesday. I knew you're going to bring it up. I don't have him on the rundown. I don't think he needs to be on the rundown. Homer and a double, baby.

It's not over. This is your Jesus Sanchez. It is. Yeah. Until he gets an honest chance, I will not stop backing Jonathan Aranda. All right, let's quickly run through some of the leftovers here. Sean Mania turned in another strong start at the Blue Jays, six and two-thirds innings. One run, eight strikeouts, and over his last nine outings,

264 ERA.81 whip. Zach Wheeler, another quality start, six innings, two runs, nine strikeouts. That's now eight straight quality starts for Zach Wheeler. And Nick Povetta was great up against the Orioles, six innings, one run, nine strikeouts. And that is three straight quality starts for Povetta. Excuse me.

Put some respect on Nick Povetta. Nope. It wasn't technically a quality start because he didn't start the game. But during this stretch, remember he also had that start against Toronto that in the box score technically happened in June, but did occur in our time frame within the last four, where he struck out nine over six one run innings. He's been really good lately.

It's Nick Povetta, though. So like the good stretches are invariably followed by very, very bad stretches. And I don't see any reason to think that won't happen, whether it be in the final three starts of the season, although he has very good matchups, or inevitably in 2025 when we talk ourselves into him for one reason or another. He does look like a two-star pitcher next week at Tampa Bay

and home against the Minnesota Twins. In a points league as a spark, okay, anywhere else, no. If you're chasing strikeouts, I think he's a very fine option. Yeah, three quality starts in a row, one really good matchup there at the start. of the week. I think he's going to be pretty high on the two-start pitcher rankings. Some hitting leftovers, Francisco Lindor, one-for-four with a game-tying solo home run in the

ninth inning to break up that no-hitter for Bouten Francis. Nick Cassiano's got off to a really slow start, but since June has basically been Nick Castiano's. 267 batting average, 13 home runs and an Ops right around 800. Tyler O'Neill is heating back up. He hit a three-run walk-off home run and he has five home runs in his past five games. Cody Bellinger, big revenge week against the Dodgers, one for three with his 17th home run, and I believe that's two home runs in three games, or is it three?

Has he home run in all three games this week? It might. I don't know. Eddie Bellinger? Anybody? I don't know. No, it's two in three games, yeah, for Bellinger this week.

Some bullpen updates for the Pirates. Aroldus Chapman was unavailable. David Bednar got the ninth inning with a three-run lead. He got two outs, but gave up an unearned run on two hits. He was pulled for Jalen Beeks, who got the final out for his 10th save. For the Guardians,

a manual Class A gave up a hit, but struck out two for his 44th save. For the Blue Jays, Chad Green entered the ninth inning with the game tied. He was charged with four runs on three walks and a hit. He took his sixth loss.

And Chad Green has five appearances in September, 22.85 ERA and a 277 whip. For the Mets, Edwin Diaz. Go ahead. Let's get into that a little bit. because, yeah, after blowing four consecutive save chances, you might think the Blue Jays would be looking to make a change there.

As bad as Chad Green is, his numbers are still the best of any Blue Jays reliever. That doesn't mean they won't pull him. Genesis Cabrera, a left-hander, would probably be the next choice. Their right-handed setup man, Eric Swanson, I think, has an ERA around six. So I don't know I don't know that you really want anybody from this bullpen other than Chad Green

is what I'm trying to say and yet I don't know that you can just trust Chad Green right now For the Mets, Edwin Diaz entered with two outs in the ninth, a four-run lead and runners on first and second He got the final out for his 18th save For the Tigers, Jason Foley,

walked one but struck out two for his 22nd save. For the Phillies, Carlos Estevez got the ninth with a one-run lead He gave up a hit but picked up his 25th save for the twins. Yohan Duran got the ninth inning, three-run lead, gave up one run on three hits, but picked up his 23rd save. For the Yankees, Clay Holmes, he's back, not really.

Entered in the seventh inning with a one-run lead, facing 9-1 and 2 in the Royals lineup. He gave up a run on two hits, took his league leading 12th blown save of the season. Luke Weaver eventually recorded five perfect outs in extra He struck out three and he earned his fifth win of the season. For the Cardinals, Ryan Helsie struck out one for his 44th save. Him in Class A are tied once again. For the A's, Mason Miller picked up his 24th save.

And for the Dodgers, Michael Kopeck walked three, gave up a run, but did pick up his 13th save of the season. To stream or not to stream on Thursday, we have Frankie Montas at the Giants, Kumar Rockers, making his debut against the Mariners. Gavin Williams faces Tampa Bay. Mitchell Parker gets the Marlins. Jacob Junis at the Cardinals? I could see a good start for Mitchell Parker.

I could see a good start from Gavin Williams. But Frankie Montas and Kumar Rocker are the only ones I'm actually interested in. I agree. But, I mean, just by virtue of it being his Major League debut, I understand how good he looked at the miners and the Mariners is obviously a good matchup. I don't know that I could realistically start Rocker outside of a desperation situation. And then on Friday we have

DJ Hers is up against the Marlins. Like that one? Zach Lattell is at the Guardians. Landon Nack is at the Braves. Braves have been making a lot of pitchers look good lately. Tobias Myers is at the D-Backs. Man, I mean, if you want to put the stream anyone against the White Sox to test, J.T. Ginn

of the Oakland days. He hasn't been bad his last couple starts. I would be my third choice from Friday behind NAC and hers. Yep, yep, yep. All right, we are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.

And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye. Paramount Podcasts.