Fantasy Baseball Today - Non-Tenders Plus 2021 Breakouts with Ellen Adair! (12/03 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: December 3, 2020

It's Tender Day! Which dipping sauce do you use in your chicken tenders? Anywho, Actor Ellen Adair is back (1:25)! Eddie Rosario, David Dahl, Kyle Schwarber, and Adam Duvall were all non-tendered (5:20). What is the Fantasy fallout for each? ... On to news and notes, how many surgeries has Tommy Pham had (15:37)? What's the latest with the Texas Rangers? ... Of course we have to hit the Phillies with Ellen on (23:55)! Will JT Realmuto sign with the Phillies? Will they upgrade their bullpen? Thoughts on Zack Wheeler? ... Who are some of our favorite hitters to break out in 2021 (34:05)? ... Which starting pitchers can take that next step (46:13)? Is Ellen trolling Frank!?... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Which players are ready to take the next step in 2021, or maybe I should just call them breakouts. Welcome to fantasy baseball today, Frank Stanful alongside Scott White, and you're listening to this on Thursday, December 3rd, but we are recording it on Tender Day. So happy Tender Day to you, Scott. What is the best dipping sauce for chicken tenders? None at all. A properly cooked chicken tender, properly seasoned and cooked. Should not need dipping sauce. I forgot you were one of those.

I'm a sauceless wonder, you could say. So does that mean you don't use ketchup for French fries either? I do not. No, no, I don't use anything for French fries either. If it's done right, Frank, it doesn't need it. Okay, sauce is to mask a flaw. No, no. That's what it exists for.

It's to add value. All right, so Tender Day is not going how I thought it was going to go, But it is also the return of Ellen Adair Day. You may remember from last offseason we had her on. We, I mean, Adam Azer, Scott and Chris, and she's an actor in the center, homelands, and billions, billions, I believe that, yes, correct? That's the name of the show.

Co-host of the Take Me Into the Ballgame podcast. Follow her on Twitter at Ellen underscore Adair, A-D-A-I-R. What's going on, Ellen? Hey, barbecue sauce is the best dipping sauce for chicken tenders, in my opinion. That's what's going on. Well, thank you. Thank you for an answer. I prefer ranch myself, but, you know, honestly, Ellen, I probably have barbecue sauce pretty low on the scale. If I'm being used to some side. It depends on whether or not there's any seasoning to the chicken tenders. If we're talking about buffalo chicken tenders, then I believe blue cheese to be the best, but I understand the ranch people. However, if it's, just a just normal chicken tender than I think barbecue sauce, although honey mustard is also good, but also I don't mind just a good chicken tender by itself also.

There you go. There you go. Pleasing everybody right now. I like that. I mean, chicken dinners are just the best, so they do please everybody, except for the vegans. If you get your garden variety, like stadium, you know, concession stands, generic chicken tender, that pretty much has no taste at all, then of course you need dipping sauce. But like, I'm thinking of like, you know,

really high, like, I don't know, chick filet, like Publix, have you ever had Publix chicken tenders? You guys probably don't even know what I'm talking about

when I say Publix. That's like a supermarket, isn't it? It is. Their chicken tenders are amazing, though. Okay. And it's just like,

they have this like really faint, spiciness to them. I don't know. It might just be pepper doing it. I don't know exactly. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I could just devour those. Hot, cold, without sauce. I mean, they're just, they're just delicious. They're delicious. All righty. So, agree to disagree on the chicken tenders. I would like to apologize. First and foremost, Ellen, I messed up one of the shows that you're on. I am a bad host because I haven't actually watched the shows that you've been on. But I promise I will. I will at some point. So it's on the bucket list. Watch shows that Ellen has been on for sure. But I went back and listened. to the podcast that you did with these guys last year.

And I remember you got, you talked about an actor thing where you called Scott out for saying the word didn't. Didn't. Yes, the way that he says it. So as you so dear to me. Probably know, if you've listened to the podcast, you know that I as a baseball host cannot pronounce the word innings.

I cannot pronounce Charlie Morton. I just don't pronounce the tea. John Carlos Stanton, there's no tea in there either. And someone pointed out to me on the word, Twitter today that I say the word barrels weird. So barrels? Does it sound weird? Not to me. I do appreciate the glottal stop for a tea in pretty much any dialect, but I like it in an American dialect. I like when people say mitten and they don't put the tea in there. So Stanton is like that

when you don't put the tea. Yeah. I'm for it. Yeah. And I do that for more in. And if there's anything else that I say throughout the podcast, Ellen, that you want to call me out for just the way I say it, or Scott, for that matter. Just feel free. Feel free to do so. It's not a calling out. It's a loving observation. I agree.

And that's how everybody should phrase that. Today on the show, of course, we will get to some of the non-tenders, some of the players that were tendered as well. Apparently, lots of Rangers and Philly stuff. Didn't, all right, there is some Rangers news. And of course, I want to ask Ellen about the Phillies. And players, we expect to take the next step, break out. We also have a leftover mailbag question if we can get to that.

a little bit later on. Busy day of non-tenders and their fantasy fallout. Eddie Rosario, David Dahl, Kyle Swarber, Adam Duval. Those were probably the biggest names that I saw non-tender. There's a few others, Carlos Rodon as well, and some other names out there, Jose Martinez. Archie Bradley? Yes, Archie Bradley as well. So he can go somewhere and make an impact in a bullpen. But let's start off with Eddie Rosario here. Was set to make $9.6 million in arbitration. he has 2.1 war since the start of 2019 which is the same as Robbie Grossman

Scott Kingery and Ryan Brown so I can't really fault the Minnesota Twins I guess for non-tendering Eddie Rosario it does come as a bit of a surprise Scott is it Alex Kirilloff time in Minnesota? I think it probably is they called him up to

he actually started a playoff game for them has been like he had a bad year last we saw of him statistically, in 2019. He was dealing with a wrist injury. The numbers weren't so great, but you look at what he did in 2018, over 40 doubles, over 20 homers. He hit like, sorry, he just missed up my mic.

He was great, he was great, is the point. Scott is so excited over Alex Kirillov. He can barely hold on to his microphone. I, yeah. Okay, so let me actually pull up the numbers. 348 with 20 homers, 44 doubles in 130 game minor league season

for Alex Kiroloff and reports out of even leading up to that playoff where he got called up reports out of the alternate training site for the twins was that he was really opening eyes there. Just a really

well-rounded hitter. Not a guy who's going to add much speed or anything, but like I've seen like Corey Seeger comparisons to Alex Kirolov as to the type of hitter he could be. So it's this opportunity for him is exciting, no doubt. I mean, a little surprising. I wasn't counting on Eddie Rosario playing somewhere else. But, you know, he'll get a job somewhere else. Like the problem for him and Adam Duvall is they just got their salary progressed too quickly through arbitration and like slugging, right, right handed hitting slugging.

cornermen who don't get on base at a good clip are just pretty easy to replace. So a lot of these guys will end up getting swapped around, but they'll still have jobs. Karoloft, though, an opportunity being opened up for him. That's pretty exciting. Yeah, I feel like it's the more shocking thing is about sort of Rosario the fantasy player, who really, it's killed me that I've never heard anybody call him steady Eddie when it's just right there for you to pick up. But, you know, he's not a great defensive player and he often hasn't been great in the OBP department.

The kind of sad thing is that looking at his numbers in 2020 is he actually had his highest walk rate and he was at least in the positive in regards to defensive run saves. But I guess teams could or his team could just be thinking that that's a small sample. And like Scott said, just that he's sort of too expensive at this point. But Kiroloff should be able to hit and hit for power. I hadn't heard the Corey Seeger comp myself, but the book has been that his plate discipline kind of leaves something to be desired, but looking at his minor league numbers myself,

they don't look outrageous. He is not particularly fast. And so I think he has started to play first base sometimes, so that may be where he ends up in the future. But roster resource currently has him at DH. That is with, of course, the Nelson Cruz situation up in the air. David Dahl, poor guy. I think he's a good player.

I really do. I mean, 828 OPS in his career, I think he's a solid hitter, but he has missed 183 of a possible 384 games over the last three seasons with the Colorado Rockies. He was non-tendered as well. And before everybody, like, loses their mind over Garrett Hampson again for the, like, one millionth time,

a roster resource has Sam Hilliard as the strong side of a platoon in center field. So we'll see what happens, Ellen. And I think this is probably the most surprising one of the day, David Dahl. I don't know. I mean, there's so many players who were first round picks for their organization, who were non-tendered today. And I guess because David Dahl is pretty young,

but he's like a year younger than Kyle Schwerber, I think. I'm not looking at their ages right in front of me. So, I mean, I personally, of those two players, I think I'd sort of rather have Schwerber because like David Dahl has been surprisingly terrible defensively. He doesn't seem like he would be, but he's been quite, quite bad. Not that I'm getting super excited about Garrett Hampson. However, I don't know that that makes a lot of sense to me about the Hilliard being the strong side of a platoon with Hampson, just because Hamson actually has reverse splits

where he's better versus Ritey's over his career and also this year. Like for his career, it's like a 10 point difference and also it's also not something drastic. I could see, you know, obviously it's the Rockies so I don't trust them at all to play any of their young players. But yeah, I could see him maybe ending up doing a little bit more than just being the weak side of the platoon.

Don't do it, Scott. Don't do it. Don't do what? Don't do Garrett Hampson. Don't do it. I know what you're thinking. I see this devious smile on your face. You've done it over and over again. Friends,

don't let friends draft Garrett Hanson. I don't think we've seen enough of Hampson and the majors yet to have a firm idea of who he is or what he's going to be. There's more opportunity for him now than there was without doll. And one interesting note about this doll non-tendering is that Rocky's GEOC's, has actually said they don't plan to pursue him, which a lot of these cases, there's probably a hope they're going to be able to sign the player back for less money. But part of what made the doll situation so surprising was that he made $2.5 million last year. The thing about arbitration is kind of what I was alluding to earlier is you have to get paid more every year. That's the way arbitration works.

So if you have a big season that earns you a lot of money in arbitration and then follow it up with a stinker, it's hard to justify the team giving you a raise. You can potentially keep the salary the same, but the bottom line is it can't go down. So, you know, Dahl's salary hadn't risen to an especially high point yet, and they were still non-tendering him, saying they have other outfielders in the organization that they want to try to use instead. Now, this seems to be the one that is having the biggest reaction within the fantasy baseball community. Dahl, of course, a perennial sleeper playing for the Rockies. And I see a lot of takes out there like, you know, he's going to go be an all-star for somebody else. Maybe. But a lot of his sleeper appeal was playing for the Rockies.

It was the idea that he'd have this 350 BABIP that comes from playing in Coors Field. and, you know, that would mask his plate discipline deficiencies, maybe a little bit of a power shortcoming there. He's been injured so much that I think you could argue we haven't seen all David Dahl can be yet, just like I was saying for Hampson. But I don't know. It's hard for me to think of him as a sleeper,

no matter where he goes now. Somebody tweeted that he'll wind up in St. Louis, and for some reason, that just makes so much sense to me. I don't know why. Swarber, he's gone as well. It's pretty much guarantees everyday playing time for David Bodie. Again, they could bring Kyle Schwerber back. We'll see what happens.

Ellen, best landing spot for Kyle Schwerber. What do you think? Oh, I don't know. I feel like I could see him maybe going to the Nationals or the Braves. That would make sense. Obviously, the Astros need another outfielder, but perhaps not somebody of Kyle Schwaber's particular cut of the jib. Cleveland, of course, needs outfielders.

You mentioned the Cardinals just now. I guess they could make sense for Kyle Schwerber as well. Anywhere. Imagine he just goes to Colorado, right? And to swap spots with David Dahl. That would be awesome. That's what I feel like is going to end up happening is a lot of these guys are just going to swap around. It's going to be musical cheers.

Yeah, basically. Like everybody could use an extra outfield. that can hit, right? Just about. Just about. Scott, Adam Duval was awesome for your braves. 16 home runs in 57 games, which actually equates to 45 home runs over the course of a full season,

including two different three homer games this past season, which is just so weird in a 60 game span. I would say this probably all but guarantees everyday playing time for Christian Pache. Well, if they don't bring Duval back, or if they don't bring in a Kyle Schwabre or whoever else. I think Pache is probably going to play every day anyway.

He was a regular in the playoffs after Duval got hurt. He was their regular center fielder. And had a home run, didn't get a lot of hits, but didn't strike out much. Like, definitely, he seemed like just watching him play. He seemed like he was ready for a more consistent opportunity. And there's probably room for him, you know, because Mark K. guess doesn't need to be a regular part of the lineup. There's probably room for him and somebody and an additional outfielder both.

Yeah. But it would be hard for me to say it's a guarantee at this point. I think it's a strong possibility. The players who were tendered, Chris Bryan, of course, there was some suspicion that he might be non-tendered. He was tendered by the Chicago Cubs and also Tommy Fan by the San Diego Padres. And I just wanted to bring this up, this long laundry list of surgeries that Tommy Fam has undergone in the past year or so.

He underwent surgery earlier this offseason to correct a problem in his left wrist. He's now had three surgeries since mid-August. First was to repair a broken hamate bone in his left hand. Second was to treat a stab wound in his lower back. Can't really blame him for that one, I guess. And then his final procedure, which was previously undisclosed, was to address the worsening of a tear in the cartilage structure on the small finger side of his left wrist. That was a mouthful.

He is lifting weights apparently and running, but he is yet to resume swinging. However, FAMM says his wrist feels much stronger, and the grip strength is significantly improved from where it was during the 2020 season. On top of all that, he's playing with a parsley torn UCL, and he's in a contract year. So the bionic man, Tommy FAM,

who I think from a roto perspective on a team that likes to run with San Diego, I'm still interested. Call me crazy. I think he has 20-20 potential, and if he hits near the top of the lineup, he's going to score a ton of runs for the San Diego Padres. What do you think, Ellen? I've been out on Tommy Fam at the price for the last couple of years, but I feel like this might be enough of a discount if he's going, you know,

outside of the top 100 that I'd scoop him somewhere and kind of see what happens. Yeah, the early ADP is 117 as the 31st outfieler off the board. So usually you'd have to spend a fifth, six, six, round pick on famine. Now, you know, if you're playing a 12-team league, you get them in 9th, 10th. It's a pretty good spot, I think. A few smaller deals. Jose Iglesias was traded to the Angels, and Corey Knebel was traded

to the Dodgers that actually happened right before we started recording here. And Scott, I have a pop quiz for you. Are you ready? Oh, yes. Which team has the most stolen basis since the start of 2019? Since the start of 2019? I'm going to go with,

the, I don't know, Padres. Do I get to guess too? Oh, yes you can, surely. I'm going to guess the Royals. It is the Texas Rangers since Chris Woodward has been there. And it's not particularly close and it just sounds weird, right?

Yeah. Who's stealing those bases? I thought the Royals was obvious when she said it. And Jace Tingler came over from the Rangers after the 2019 season in 2020 and basically just kept up that philosophy with the Padres. So the reason why I'm bringing this up is because we did have some news on Isaiah Kinerfelaifa

that came out earlier in the week that he will be the Rangers starting shortstop in 2021. And I think that he is sneaky for Roto and head-to-head categories. Like he's not going to give you much pop. He only had three home runs, but eight steals, five-cut stealing. He tried to run 13 times with the Rangers. He was on pace for 22 steals.

So just, just, remember the name, Scott, I think in a roto league is a middle infielder, everyone's looking for steals. I think Connor Flefa could give you 20 to 25. Yeah, I mean, he was an everyday player this year, and I feel like the only reason

he really amounted as much was because he was catcher eligible, and he's obviously not going to be anymore. I had hopes he might be developing power, because remember he had a big spring, he had a big summer camp, and they were talking about some changes he made to his swing, hit a lot

of home runs then and they fittingly evaporated during the regular season. So I don't know. I'm pretty much out on him since he's not Keller eligible anymore. It's not like you get that he's kind of a cheat code there and that was

what made him interesting. I feel like the more interesting note here related to this is that if he's their regular shortstop, that kind of means they're out on Elvis Andrews, right? They're moving on from Elvis Andrews. He's still there. He's still with them, but it doesn't sound like they want him to be

part of their lineup anymore. Elvis Andrews. He gone. He gone. He gone. And he gone. And he go. Little Hawk Harrelson there for you. Uh, yeah, Elvis Andrews, it seems like he's going to be moved into a utility role. And part of that reason as well is because, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Nick Solac will likely win the starting job at second base if he can prove this spring that he can handle the position defensively. So I guess that kind of leaves Rue Dend, Odor, somewhere on the outside looking in as well. And Ellen, I love Nick Solek. Kind of like how you love David Fletcher. Do love David Fletcher. Yeah, I don't know. For me, the defense is the real question. And I actually feel like defense is part of this for a fantasy standpoint, because he had negative five defensive

run saved at second base and minus eight in the outfield in a shortened season, which gives him obviously a negative war in both formats. So I just don't know if this is going to happen for him. As an offensive player, I do like him particularly if he can steal you those bases. And he's maybe more exciting option for us than Rugnett-Odour, not the power ceiling of O'Dore, obviously. but I kind of feel like Solek is like a guy that the pitcherless guys would say he's a small room

like the ceiling is lower but the floor is higher. That's probably fair. Yeah, that's fair. He makes a lot of contact. He did raise his fly ball rate this year so I think the power could potentially bounce back. Can he be a 10 to 15 home run 20 steel guy?

I think it's possible for Nick Solex. So he's on my radar. Who calls that a small room? I've never heard that before. I think it's Nick Pollock and Alex Fast at Pitchlist. Oh, small room. Unless I miss attributing. Sometimes I just remember things in the middle of a podcast and I'm not 100% sure where I heard them.

No, that sounds accurate though, because when we had Nick Pollock on, he was throwing out all kinds of crazy acronyms and stuff. And I was like, dude, that was the longest acronym I've ever heard. And I know. Yeah, headache-inducing pictures that stifled the entire roster. Yes. Yeah, I think that was the one. Yeah. I feel like, I feel like, like that reminds me of that room in being John Mous.

You know, like that whole level of the office. You know what I'm talking about? It was actually, it was actually unnecessarily, an unnecessarily weird detail turned into a movie that was weird enough. And so it kind of gets lost. But yeah, there was like, there was this whole floor in being John Malkovich that like was ceiling was way too low. I love everything about that movie, including that weird half floor where they have to

stop the elevator and like, you know, jam the doors open to get out. I love everything about that movie. Of course I have no idea what you guys are talking about because I've seen like five movies in my life and everyone knows that at this point. But two of them... At least you've seen the Lost Boys. Yes, I have seen The Lost Boys.

Scott hasn't, I believe. Is that true? I was very surprised when there was a movie that Scott had not seen that you had seen, Frank. I was like, what is going on? Up is down. Black is white. Euro trip recently as well.

Although we talked about that the other day and Scott was not a fan. That's been remedied. I guess that's the right word that's been remedied. I don't know. Yeah, not really. But all right, final few news items. Trevor May signed with the Mets for two years, $15 million.

He will likely be the seventh or eighth inning guy there. And there were some hope that he could latch on somewhere as a closer, but that will not be the case in New York. The Red Sox reportedly have interest in Corey Klob. And the Padres may get involved on Trevor Bauer or may look into trading for Blake Snell, according to reports. If you're watching us on YouTube, you see Ellen.

She's wearing her fillies paraphernalia. It's actually just a coincidence. It's just a statistical likelihood that I'm wearing some Phillies paraphernalia. So I would like to pick your brain a little bit about what's going on with the Phillies here in the offseason. It's a very slow off season. We know that. But they've got a few things going on.

The GM search doesn't really matter too much for fantasy, I guess. But J.T. Real Muto. Are they going to bring them back? The bullpen is very bad, so let's just start with Rio Muto. First and foremost, we have a bunch of different crazy meters on here, the dropletometer, Wurio meter, the Sino meter. The Sino meter for the off season. J.T. Real Muto.

Zero, it's not happening. He's gone. Kiss him goodbye. Ten, he's coming back. He's coming back to the Phillies. Where do you lie on the Sino meter for JT. Real Muto? I think it's maybe a one. Really? Some part of me believes that they have. have to because otherwise southeastern Pennsylvania will burn to the ground. But I don't know if you saw this where there were conflicting numbers floating around about how much the Philly

has lost this past year. I think it was Bill Madden had erroneously reported that they lost two billion. But I think the number is actually like 145 or 168. Anyway, this all came out with John Middleton reportedly saying that it meant that they weren't signing any big free agents this season. And so maybe this is just to decrease expectations so that the Delaware Valley area isn't actually raised to the ground, but it doesn't look good. And I actually, I wrote a piece this summer at the turf sports, which was a JT. Real Muto Christmas Carol, which is actually still quite applicable. And at the time, I cast Matt Clentack as Scrooge because he is 100% responsible for the trash drafting and development that has brought the Phillies to their miserable place today. But I clearly should have cast Middleton, who is worth like $3 billion, but also

just like laid off 80 people in the organization. And I'm sure it saved him like $10 million tops. So talk about Scrooge. I don't know that he's going to be doing anything for the Phillies this offseason. Ooh, man, that is, and especially because they gave up such a prospect in 6'0 Sanchez. us to get them, right? So you would figure they should go out and give some money to J.T. Real Muso, so it could potentially be on the move, whether it's the Mets.

I don't know, apparently the Mets are looking at James McCain, so we shall see. That also wouldn't bode well for the free agent predictions podcast we did, where I predicted like half of all the free agents were going to the Phillies. I think I had Springer going to the Phillies too, so it flushed that way down the toilet.

I had Springer going to the Rockies. Maybe that's why they got rid of doll. You never know. All right. Ellen, the Phillies bullpen was historically bad in 2020. Sorry to remind you. They had a 7.06 ERA. That was the highest in the majors.

Are they really going to go into 2021 with Hector Nerris as their closer? Oh, God. I mean, I really hope not. But I just, I have no faith in the Phillies doing anything right. Obviously, they're like, they're a headless body on the, on the podcast, I'm on Joe Posnansky's podcast on The Athletic, and I said that I wouldn't trust the Phillies organization to not lose their mittens unless it was attached to their coats by an elastic band.

So, I mean, the whole bullpen disaster in 2020 was because Middleton was unwilling to go over the luxury tax, which is pretty ridiculous after spending all that money on Harper and Real Muto and getting Gregorius. And then he just wouldn't go in just a little bit more. And so the 2020 Phillies are seen as this abject failure when, in fact, their offense was good. And their starting pitching was decent. But there were, this is my favorite sad fact, there were 15 games, which is a quarter of the season, where they led and lost. But they are losing a lot of their bullpen arms, even from this year.

And it's clear that they don't have much from within to stock an entire pen. So they're losing, I have a list here, Tommy Hunter, Blake Parker, Jose Alvarez, Adam Morgan, David Phelps, Brandon freaking Workman, and Heath Hempry, what a terrible trade that ended up being. So one feels like they have to sign someone, but I feel like everybody looking at the gaping maw of the Phillies need and deciding that the Phillies are going to get Liam Hendricks. I just, I don't think that's happening. Like, I honestly, I was kind of hoping that they'd sign Trevor May because then he could close and it wouldn't be as expensive. But I'm glad at least he got more money than I thought he would. Yeah, it's probably not going to be Liam Hendricks, but he's also the premier reliever on the market. So even if they drop down to like, I don't know, Trevor Rosenthal, Mark Malanson, Kirby Yates, there is no shortage of current former closers that are available that they might be able to get for cheap.

And they probably, even if they don't want to spend, they probably should for that. at least one of these guys, because I don't think Hector Neres is the answer. The last thing I wanted to ask you is regarding Zach Wheeler. I mentioned, I've already done three drafts, Ellen, and I have Zach Wheeler on two of them. So should I feel good about that? He's my SP3 and both of them.

I think you should feel pretty great about that myself. I mean, obviously there's a little bit of a mystery box element to the Phillies pitchers, because we have a new pitching coach for the fourth time in four years. It's sort of like the defense against the dark arts teacher in Harry Potter. That's another sick Harry Potter reference for you because I'm so cool. Anyway, their new pitching coach is Caleb Cotham, who was the assistant pitching coach and director of pitching for the Reds. So hopefully having a driveline guy will be helpful for the Phillies.

But, you know, as I think was much discussed, Zach Wheeler had a sort of a surprising profile in 2020 where he had a career low 18% K rate, but a career high, 56% ground ball rate. And there was definitely a moment when I was like, Zach Eflin is getting more strikeouts than Zach Wheeler. How did we get into this alternate timeline? But there were a couple of interesting things about that, because what I saw under Brian Price specifically was that both Wheeler and Nola were really pitching east-west with just a little bit of north-south dimensionality. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that for both of them, their sinker has nearly as much horizontal break as it does vertical break. It's sort of in the opposite directions, but it means that it's the opposite side of

the plate as the slider in Wheeler's case and the change-up in Nola's case. Anyway, I bring this up only because the interesting thing about Wheeler getting so many more ground balls was it had nothing to do with his sinker specifically. So every single one of his pitches besides his slider had a massive decrease in average launch angle by like 10 to 15 degrees. So this is something that he was doing differently with all of his pitches. So obviously he's not about to forget it just because he has a new coach, but who knows what plan Cotham might have and whether or not he might have the same priorities about making sure that Wheeler gets deeper into games by inducing more ground balls rather than hunting strikeouts. But I think either way, you're getting a good thing out of Wheeler.

I'm just not sure which good thing it's going to be. And speaking of going deep into games, I mean, that was Wheeler's calling card basically in the short and season. He went at least five and two thirds in all 11 starts that he made. And he has been up over 180 endings each of the past two full seasons. So 2018 and 2019. So we're all, we're, we're, we're, going to be looking for pitchers who can give us innings and be a dependable workhorse, and it just feels kind of weird to call Zach Wheeler that, considering his injury history. But I think that's where he's at. And I think that he's going to be pretty safe for innings. And you brought up the strikeout rate, career high 10.8% swinging strike rate.

So I think some positive regression in the strikeout department could be, should be coming for Zach Wheeler as well. We're going to hit a quick break. I just want to remind everybody that you can sign up for our Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter. I usually send one out. once or twice a week. You could find Scott's latest articles. I'll throw a podcast in there as well. Whenever we do mock drafts, they will be in that newsletter as well. And sign up for our Facebook group. Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. A lot of people asking dynasty questions. If you were trying to find a league, I know someone emailed us today,

just trying to find a new league mate. Go to our fantasy baseball today, Facebook group, and throw it in there. A lot of serious players, and I think you might be able to find someone. So that could be one of the uses for our Facebook group. We're going to hit a break. When we come back, we are going to look at some of our favorite potential breakouts in 2021 here, fantasy baseball today. So true story, Ellen emailed us about 10 minutes before we were about to start, and she said, Frank, you chose the same two hitters that I was going to choose for this exercise,

which is just, what are the chances? Because, like, I don't know the math of, like, all the players in Major League Baseball and the breakdown of hitters versus pitchers. There are a lot of players in baseball. There are a lot of hitters in baseball. The fact that I threw two names on this rundown, and they were the same two names that Ellen wanted to talk about, is just blasphemy.

It is insane. So I'm very excited to talk about these players. Yes, me too. Especially when you hear what the players are. You are welcome back at any point, Ellen. The fact that we share this, we are simpatico. So would you like to start? I feel like you should just.

choose whichever one because it's I love both of these players well I'm going to pick rowdy to les and I thought when I emailed you and I was like let me take rowdy and you can have the other guy that we'll hear about later I thought I'd pick him since I have mr. rowdy to les in Scott white's famed 24 team dynasty league that he is so kind to let me be in so for our friend rowdy it was only 35 games that he played in in 2020 but he's 283-346-540 with eight home runs, and very excitingly, the highest walk rate of his career at almost nine, and he practically halved his strikeout rate, which was 28.4% the previous year to 15.7%. So even if his long-term gain is half of that, that's huge. And he's also in the 80th to

86th percentile for a lot of the different expected stats on baseball savant, so solid. And the question for Tellez is really whether or not he'll have a place to play. So by the time many people are drafting, we'll have more information. But if the Blue Jays get an upgrade anywhere around the infield, like he might potentially be out of a job, since he's really only a first base DH type, and they've already got Vlad. But he's going around pick 278, so that's the NFBC ADP. So it seems like somebody to make a good gamble on. And I just took him as my corner infielder in my most recent draft,

which is currently going on. Yeah, he's super interesting. And look, there's a chance to Blue Jays go out and sign someone or trade for Lindor and shuffle things around and they're infield. It sounds like they're going to try and be aggressive this offseason. So that could affect Roddy Tillez's playing time. And again, like Ellen said, you'll know by the time you're drafting most of us. but Scott, did you know that Rowdy Tellez

averaged 3.0 fantasy points per game this past season, which was the same amount as Pete Alonzo, and it was better than his teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Did you know that? I didn't know that specifically. I knew his per game production was high, especially in a points league because he kept the strikeout rate so low. Personally, I'm not as high on him

as it sounds like you guys are, because I just don't believe they're that interested in making him an everyday player. They didn't play much against left-handers this year to begin with. And like you guys mentioned, it sounds like they plan to be pretty active in free agency. So it just seems like he'll be somebody who gets bumped out. And I don't think he'll be bumped out completely.

I think he'll always have a part-time spot in that lineup. You know, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll know, obviously, going into the season, what his role is projected to be. and that might reshape my thinking. But personally, I don't have particularly high in my rankings.

So for Rowdy, and if anyone in the Blue Jays organization is listening, you should be, by the way, Routi Tulles had an 811 OPS against Lefties in 2020, and then last year in 2019, he had an 831 OPS against Lefties. So kind of has like a weird reverse split thing where he's actually been really good against Lefties.

So Blue Jays organization, if you're listening, please give Rodney. to Les a shot. Scott, a hitter that you expect to take the next step in 2021. So I came up with a few names here, some a little higher in than others. But I've decided to make this my opportunity to talk about how much I have come to love Cabrion Hayes. I knew you were going to pick Cabrion Hayes. And that's why I didn't pick him. I just knew. I wasn't sure I had voiced this yet So I wanted to make sure I got it in here

But yeah I had this weird feeling about Cobrain Hayes as he was coming up through the minors As his You know debut drew close That he was going to kind of go The Francisco Lindor route Well where okay we know

You know he's kind of been named among the top prospects for a while now Even though the minor league production isn't that great and you think it's mostly because of defense. He has some pretty good contact skills, but offensively you're not seeing much else going on there. But then when he gets to the majors, I don't know if it's just the heightened competition or the fact that he's seeing pitchers who throw more strikes

or what it is, but he just goes off. And that's granted in a tiny sample size, not enough for him to exhaust his rookie eligibility even. That appears to be what happened with Brian Hayes, who ended up. hitting in the 24 games he played, 85 of bets, hit 376 with five homers, seven doubles, two triples, out of a stolen base for good measure. The strikeout rate was low, as you would expect, but, you know, 20% from a rookie. That's impressive no matter who's doing it. His average exit

velocity, 92.8, that would have been top 15 among qualifiers just behind ALMVP, Jose a brave, so he hit the crap out of the ball. And he hit the crap out of the ball while pulling it only 25% of the time. I mean, he was opposite field focused and was still hitting it that hard. So, like, I mean, that shows real aptitude with the bat, I feel like. And while the launch angle was a little on the low side, he still managed to hit five home runs and those 85 at bats, a ton of extra base hits on the hole. and that's something I feel like he can improve going forward either. It seems like he has the two bigger hurdles cleared already,

which is making contact and using the entire field. And I don't know. I mean, like, he runs a little bit. You know, he had a 27 steel season in the miners once. He was 13 for 14 in 2019, the most recent season we saw from him down there. So, like, I feel like batting average, he looks like a pretty safe bet. steals he's going to be better than the average corner infielder at least. And so it's a question of how quickly the power comes.

But first returns, that's looking great too. I feel like a Brian Hayes is somebody, I could draft as my starting third baseman and feel pretty good about even, you know, presuming I miss out on all of those high-end guys at the position. And I don't know the drafts that I've done so far, I don't know if people realize this, but third base is not nearly as deep as it has been in years past. It's deep with solid talent throughout, but it is very top heavy.

And the top five or six third basemen, they're all going to be gone by the top 36 picks. Like within the first three or four rounds of your drafts, those third basement are gone. And then, you know, it kind of dries up a little bit. So Cabrion Hayes definitely interesting. Walks a lot. Makes a decent amount of contact. The one drawback maybe is he hits a lot of ground balls. But, man, I mean, that's me just really reaching here.

Ellen, fan of Cabrian Hayes? Yes, absolutely. I am. You know, I know, Scott, that you're a fan of Cabrion Hayes, but also Shelley Verrogg Strait is a great fan of Cabrion Hayes. And on a podcast that I love, a Phillies podcast called Hitton Season, it's the Good Fight podcast. John Stolness was talking about the fact that Cabrion Hayes actually had a higher war than any of the NL rookie of the year candidates, despite the fact that he only played in half of the games. I mean, some of that has to do with the fact that Alec Bohm had kind of negative war for defense, whereas Hayes still had positive war.

So you're not exactly getting quite that difference between Bohm and Hayes as fantasy players. But nevertheless, he's really exciting. I think it's worth mentioning that he did have a 450 babbip this year. And so he may not hit 376, but his expected batting average was 300. which like you'd still take that. And his exit velocity and Scott mentioned and his hard hit rate was 55%. So just woo. And something specifically that Shelley had mentioned in her article on pitcher list was that his swing percentage is about average,

but his zone contact rate is about 10 percentage points higher than average at 93.2%, which means that he just kills anything that's put into the zone. And he also has a really excellent swinging strike rate at like seven or eight percent. So I'm very excited about him. Lots to like with Cabrion Hayes. And without further ado, the other player that Ellen and I decided was going to break out in 2021 together, apparently, was Dylan Carlson. And look, the thing is, you're not going to get him cheap because a lot of people like him,

I believe he's going inside the top 130 right now in ADP. So a lot of people are expecting the breakout, but he failed, he came up last year. He probably, you know, it's his first time around the majors, and he didn't succeed at first, and he got sent back to their alternate site. But when he came back, super small sample size. But hey, I mean, everything we're doing nowadays

is with small sample sizes. Dealing Carlson's final 12 games, 278 batting average, 936 OPS, two homers, four doubles, one triple, a 32% line drive rate, and a 92.9. mile per hour average exit velocity. And then he went on to the postseason, performed well there, had a couple of hits. He had a couple of walks. He stole a base in the postseason as well. And that's

the biggest stage against the best pitchers. So I was impressed by the fact that he was able to bounce back all within his rookie season. Ellen, what are some of the reasons why you like Dylan Carlson for next year? Yeah, it's a lot of the reasons that you mentioned. And I think it's partly thinking that some foolish people, but of course, obviously not very many considering that he, you know, he's going on NFBC at pick 138 might just be misled by his full season, in quotes, stat line of 200. But even for that, his expected batting average was 246. So even the sort of slow start that he had to the year before he was sent down,

it seems like he was getting unlucky during that time. And then as you mentioned in the playoffs, like he was hitting cleanup and he had a 10-15 OPS. And yes, it was only three games. the plus side, maybe it was like only three games. And so he's not going to get a sort of an rosarayna like bump in terms of how interested people are in him. And his 42% hard hit rate is well above average. I mean, it's no Cobrian Hay's hard hit rate, but it's fine. And I feel like we could even see his strikeout rate shrink in his walk rate grow into something that was closer to his minor league track record. So I wouldn't be surprised if he had something more like a 20%

strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate going forward. The NL Central is in good shape, apparently, with some of those young hitters out there. Scott, why don't you give us a pitcher that you're looking at for next year to take the next step? Okay, so pitcher I'm starting to get excited about is John Means. And I knew you were going to choose him.

So, Scott, you were becoming too predictable because Ellen knew that you were going to choose Cabrion Hayes, and I knew you were going to choose John Means. that is actually why I didn't choose him myself. Apparently so. I surprised myself with these picks because they weren't who immediately came to mind. But as I was looking through my rankings,

yeah. I mean, John Means had a pretty good rookie season. He looked like a left-hander who was going to be in the strike zone a lot, but didn't throw particularly hard. And so he might be able to have a decent ERA, but in a way that felt vulnerable, this year

he finished with it was around 4.50 but over his last four starts John Means showed that John means business see what happened all year the velocity was up it was up about

two miles per hour on his fastball it was up on all his pitches frankly but like the results weren't there and so it's like okay so he's not a soft tosser anymore, but what does it matter if you know he's getting hit hard? Those last four starts, his swinging

strike rate just blew up. It was 16%. It would have been top five in baseball if those, that four start stretch had been the whole season. He would have been a top five pitcher and swinging strike rate. And in those four starts, John Means had a 152 ERA, a 0.63 whip,

11.4K per 9. He was completely transformed for four starts to end the season, which would be enough to get my attention on its own, but when a guy goes from throwing 91 to 94 on top of it, averaging that on his fastball, it's like who is this guy even?

And as I mentioned, he does a good job of staying in the strike zone, limiting walks. So that's not even an issue for him. If he has genuine bat missing potential on top of it, I mean, I don't know. I hadn't thought much about John Means before that four-star stretch, but it was a real eye opener for me, and I think he could have a big breakout.

And I think most people are going to look at John Means and they're going to say, oh, but he pitches in Camden Yards. He's got to pitch against the Yankees and assuming the Red Sox improved their lineup and the Blue Jays, and they're going to shy away, but a 3.09 expected ERA

according to statcast as well. So, I mean, this guy was really limiting hard contact and generating those swinging strikes as you highlighted Scott. So, yeah, I'm in as well. John Means definitely, definitely an interesting name, even though he pitched in Camden Yards. Ellen, what do you think? A pitcher that you expect to take the next step in 2021. Well, this might be a little bit of a cop-out, but I was super in on Joe Musgrove for 2020.

And really, if he'd played a full season, he might not qualify for like taking the next step forward, but he only pitched 39 innings. But he was particularly good at the very end of the season. And so I feel like saying that he's going to be that good for longer is taking the next step forward from only being good for 39 innings. And the fact that he was really better than ever before after coming back from the triceps injury rather than before is definitely, you know, it does my heart good. But he had his career best ERA of 3.89. And that's pretty much backed up by FIP, X FIP, and XERA that are all actually lower than that. that. And his strikeout rate skyrocketed to 33%, which was around 21% for the rest of his career. And I think maybe the most exciting thing is that his average exit velocity on his batted balls

was way down to 85 miles per hour, which was in the top 7% of the league, according to Stackcast. And this all happened with the highest bab-ip of his career. So it's not necessarily a matter of luck. And it's also good to see that there are things to explain this. Because for years, we've been like, Joe, we love you, Joe. Just stop throwing that fastball so often. You have like five freaking pitches, my dude. And in 2020, he started throwing his fastball less. Hooray, and his change up more.

And at the same time, he also got more horizontal and vertical break on both of those pitches. So he added two inches of horizontal break to his slider. So basically they were even more effective than ever. And it was beautiful. He's going at Pick 151 on NFBC. So again, this is not like a super late person, but I would be not at all surprised to see him kind of make a leap into being a top 100 pitcher this next year. Now, Ellen, I have to ask you, are you trolling me right now?

No. Did you pick Joe Musgrove? No, no. I thought about it, but I have basically become synonymous with Joe Musgrove because I have drafted him for each of, every year that he's just been part of baseball. I picked him up. I've touted him as a sleeper every single year. And I'm just like, the year that I don't draft Joe Musgrove is the year that he's going to win the Sy Young. I swear, like, the stuff is there. Absolutely. And I've been like just banging the table for years now. Like just throw the, the fastball less. Final five starts, only used the fast bowl, 39% of the time. Slider, 25%. Curveball, 22%. Swinging strike rate, 16%. K per 9, 13.6, walks per 9, 1.8. The guy has all the talent in the world. I don't know if he needs to change the scenery or what it is, but Joe Mosgrove has talent. Stop me if you've heard that before. Maybe the scenery changed around him, and that's why, you know, the last five starts. Five starts, right? That went the way.

they did. Another Pirates pitcher you could say that about just throw the fastball less is a guy coming back from Tommy John, James and Tyone, who I thought about picking for this too. Obviously, we don't know exactly how the return from that will go if he'll have, if his stuff will be diminished or whatever. But if it isn't, a lot of upside there for Jameson Tyone. And it's, it's a new pirates organization. They have different philosophies. Yeah, and that's part of the reason why I loved him last season two is they brought Oscar Marin in to be the pitching coach there, and they got away from Ray Searidge, who was just very heavy on this fastball sinker approach, and we saw once guys like Garrett Cole left from there and Tyler Glass now, they go on to become these great pitchers.

So I was buying the total package, Ellen, so I am enthused that you like Joe Musgrove as well, and I'm hoping, I'm never going to give up. I'm just going to draft him every year until either he retires or it works out, and then the next year he's like a second or third round pick, and then, okay, I don't have to draft him anymore. I'll let someone else draft him. That's a long way of saying that I agree with you, and I love Joe Musgrove. The name that I wanted to bring up, you see the Yankee stuff behind me. When I had Matt Modica on, he brought this name up, and I recently looked into him. It's Jordan Montgomery.

The surface stats were not very good. Actually, they were quite bad for Jordan Montgomery. 511 ERA, 1.30 whip, a 3.65 X-FIP, 9.6K per 9, 1.8 walks per 9. and his K-minus walk percentage was 19.7%. If he qualified, that would have been better than Carlos Carrasco, Zach Gallen, and Sunny Gray. So I think there's something there with Jordan Montgomery. The chase rate was a career high.

The swinging strike rate was a career high. He saw increased velocity coming back from Tommy John's surgery, 92.5 miles per hour on the fastball. Change the pitch mix up a little bit. So remember the name. I think in that John Means, old late round sleeper, flyer, Jordan Montgomery, uh, joining John Means. I actually owned Jordan Montgomery in a couple of leagues this past year.

So I'm, you know, very aware of how he didn't quite do what I hoped that he would. On the other hand, I feel like if he's cheap, I'm back in, uh, this year because I sort of feel like all of the reasons that I was in on him last time I drafted. I'll just try again this time if he's still cheap. I hear you. Uh, and you're going to be able to get him for super. super cheap anyway. So Jordan Montgomery, just a name to remember. Ellen, I remember last year on the podcast. Adam was, Adam, Iza was asking all these kind of crazy questions towards the end of that podcast. And I had a meeting with him today. And I said, do you, do you have any questions for Ellen?

We're going to have her on the show. And he said, oh, yeah, yeah. Ask her what her three best side dishes were on Thanksgiving. Oh, that's an excellent question. It's going to be hard to decide. One of them, I have to pick stuffing. I really love stuffing. It's basically like seasoned bread and butter, and it's delicious. And I think this year we had sweet potato biscuits that were some of the best thing I've ever had in my life. They were huge. They were sort of like not the size of my head, but the size of my face.

And they were spectacular. And I don't think that I can choose pumpkin pie as a side dish, but I would. And I think the third thing that I'm going to choose is my wonderful husband made a brussel sprouts dish with bacon. And it was basically like a Brussels sprouts bake. So he sauteed the brossil sprouts with the bacon and then he put them in a pan and then covered them with cheese. It was, I believe, grouillier and cheddar and put it in the oven. And it was delicious. Wow, that sounds fantastic.

It was most excellent. Yeah. Chris Howard is a big Brussels sprouts guy. Well, anything covered in bacon and cheese is probably going to be awesome. Yeah. I mean, that's what I've told him when we've gotten into this Brussels sprouts. They're actually amazing. And I'm like, well, yeah.

You got to do a lot of. I think you cook any vegetable the way it takes to make Brussels sprouts amazing. It would probably come out amazing. That's fair. I actually, I'm sort of chicken tenders about Brussels sprouts. Like I just like roasted Brussels sprouts with nothing. Wow. So Brussels sprouts with cheese and bacon is clearly better because cheese and bacon.

But yeah, I mean, the unadorned Brussels sprout, not raw, but roasted is excellent. Ellen Adair, thank you so much for joining us. And make sure you go watch the center, homelands, billions. Don't be like me. Watch all those shows that Ellen has been a part of. host of Take Me Into the Ballgame. Follow her on Twitter as well at Ellen underscore Adair, A-D-A-I-R. Ellen, thank you so much for coming on. Oh, my goodness. Thank you so much for having me. You guys are my heroes. You don't mean that. I do. I do mean it. Joe Muscarove is everyone's

hero. Scott, go get some dipping sauce for your tenders. For Scott and Ellen, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.