Fantasy Baseball Today - Our Final Mailbag! Trading Draft Picks, Player Debates & Fantasy Justice (4/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 2, 2022

Link to our Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep Guide- https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2022-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-guide-rankings-sleepers-tiers-and-whatever-else-you-need/ Let's start with apple podcast review questions (1:40). ... Bryce Harper or Jacob deGrom as a keeper (4:25)? ... Draft Charlie Morton or Corey Seager in the seventh round (5:45)? ... What is Carlos Rodon's keeper value (9:10)? ... How to trade draft picks (11:50). ... Let's move over to emails, starting with Oneil Cruz (14:12). ... Alex Kirilloff or Keibert Ruiz (20:30)? ... What is Ohtani's dynasty value (23:33)? ... Corbin Burnes or Walker Buehler in a quality start league (25:25)? ... What to make of Tarik Skubal (28:55)? ... Bryce Harper or Bo Bichette in an OPS league (37:00)? ... Verlander or Bobby Witt in a keeper league (42:05)? ... We wrap up with Fantasy Justice (45:02)! 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today and welcome into our final mailbag podcast of the off season. Frank Stanful joined by Chris Towers and maybe Scott White at some point. We're recording this on Thursday, but you are listening or watching this on.

on Saturday, April 2nd. Chris, I don't have as fun of a food question as I did last week. You know, I thought the egg sandwich construction question was pretty fun. I am a big fan of pasta, though. I've never asked you about pasta. Do you have a favorite dish?

I love a yokee with like a cheese sauce. I think that's probably my favorite of the various pasta permutations. Although I like them all. Love a vodka sauce. You know, I love a, love a, love a, I love a pasta. You know, what's not to like, really?

I mean, come on. It's fantastic. Nyoki with pesto sauce. Creamy pesto? Sure. That's awesome. That's awesome. Penny Olive vodka, that's, you know,

it's a classic staple. You throw some grilled chicken in there. Fantastic. Today on the show, we've got your mailbag questions. We've got some Applepod questions and your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

We have a fantasy justice question that we'll get to a little bit later on as well. Let's start with those Apple Podcast questions. We appreciate everyone, leaving a five-star review. And this one's from Dr. Funk. Hey, Jake, Cici, and Corey. No idea.

I guess that would be... Are those Brewers? C.C. Sabathia. Corey Hart. Corey Hart. Jake... I don't know who Jake is. Peev wasn't on that team, right?

Peev was the Padres. Yeah, no. I'd have to look into that one. 12-Team, 5-5-Roto, where we change picks every round. Basically, we draw chips from a jar You go there, and you go there and back with a pick, and then you put the chips back, and you draw again.

This system rewards adaptability on the fly, but doesn't allow as much game planning beforehand, which is fair because not everyone has as much time to game plan as everyone else. Do you guys have any advice for how to handle this situation, and are you doing a full draft guide like you did last year? Funny you ask, that is live on the site. I will put the link in the YouTube and podcast description.

So if you need it this weekend, can find it. Chris did great work. And of course, you just punch in your email and they'll send it to you right away. But Chris, back to the question. This is, this is kind of a fun concept. I've never heard of a draft like this before. And I guess you need to be like versatile and on your toes, but sounds fun. Yeah, I mean, I think this is, I don't know how you game plan for it, really, because you don't know what every round's going to give you. I think you just kind of, rather than having specific players, I think you do have to be, you know, you have to have an idea of what kind of team you want to build either way. And so that's kind of the way I approach most of my drafts,

where I don't necessarily go in thinking I'm going to have X, Y, and Z players no matter where I'm picking from. You know, it's more about the fundamental draft strategies that I go with. And so for me, you know, that's typically the, that Hira SP, you know, get two SPs in the first 10 rounds and then load up on upside after that, stuff like that. So, you know, I don't know how much my approach would necessarily change in this format, mostly just because I'm not making specific plans ahead of time either way. I think, you know, you should be, you should be flexible no matter what draft style you have, I guess is the way I would say it. So I actually thought about it the other way, Chris. I remember just the other day, we were doing

our favorite, you know, round by round draft targets. And I think if you just kind of use that as a base, you know, take each of our three favorite picks from each round and just kind of go based on, all right, well, wherever I'm drafting in this round, I know that I have a couple of options that I like here. And then you can kind of just plan around that as well. But yeah, I think obviously going in with like a meta strategy, I guess, is what you're talking about. That makes some sense as well. This next one's from Dave, Dear Hulk, Kevin, and Scott. That's the NWO.

That's the original NWO. That's right. Wolfpack, yeah, I guess. Well, no, Wolfpack came a little bit later on. But yeah, these are, these are the OGs. Rest in peace, Scott Hall, of course. Keeping Whitmery Field, Robbie Ray, Freddie Peralta, and Max Scherzer. 10 team, 40 total guys kept 5-5 roto, and OBP instead of batting average.

Quality starts instead of wins. We'll have my choice between DeGrom and Harper. Pitching will be gone very quickly with the keepers. Who would you go with? All right, so, has already got three pitchers on this team and Whitmerichield? Yeah, I think. I think you take Harper. Yeah.

Because you've got, I mean, in a 10-team league, Robbie, Ray, Freddie Peralta, Max Scherzer, that's a heck of a start already. So I think you just take Harper and, you know, especially given, you know, the longer-term injury concerns for DeGrom, I think Harper's the way to go there. Yeah, I agree with that. So you've already got an ace in Scherz.

You got potentially multiple aces here. Shurz are Robbie Ray, Freddie Peralta. And I think Bryce Harper. and Whitmeryfield, they do compliment each other quite a bit as well. So, yeah, go with Bryce Harper over DeGrom. This one's from SMS 1717. I'm in a 12-team head-to-head categories league, and in the seventh round, I had Charlie Morton,

Carlos Correa, and Corey Seeger still on the board. My team at that point consisted of Vlad, Devers, Brandon Woodruff, Pete Alonzo, Jose Altoovee, and George Springer. I ended up drafting Charlie Morton and snagging Willie Adomis, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kirschaw in succession. I feel like it worked out, but did I leave too much value at shortstop after ending up with Verlander anyways? Who would you have drafted in that scenario?

I believe I have Corey Seeger as the top ranked player among this three. I think it's actually pretty close between him and Morton. But yeah, it is Seeger, Morton, and then Correa for me. So, you know, I think Morton's fine because you only had one starting pitcher at that point. But knowing that Justin Verlander was there, you know, I think you could make a kid. that ending up with Seeger, another pitcher, and then Verlander might have made more sense, but I don't have much of a problem with it. If anything, it does feel a little early for Willie Adamas.

You know, that seems like the kind of situation where, what's that, the eighth round, you probably would have been able to get him a little later based on where he typically goes. So, but overall, I don't have a problem with it. I just, you know, I do have Seeger ranked higher, but I'm, I imagine. imagine I'm not in the consensus on that for the fantasy industry as a whole, or you and Scott. I know Scott still likes Corey Seeger quite a bit. Let me pull up his top 300. Yeah, I've got, I've got Corey Seeger as a top 40 player. I mean, he's really the only time he's missed over the past three seasons is when he got hit by a pitch, which I don't, I don't think you hold against him. And

basically the past two seasons, he's hit like a chart, like a Freddie Freeman clone when he's on the field, you know, like he's really, really good. Yeah, for sure. And I'm looking at it now. Scott has Seeger 45th. He has Charlie Morton ranked one spot behind him 46th. And I actually have Seeger ranked ahead of Charlie Morton as well. But Chris, I guess this is more of like a just pure strategy conversation. But I think it's okay to veer off of overall rankings when it comes down to like your need at that point in the draft. So if you need an SP2, totally fine taking Charlie Morton and why not? up with Willie Adamas someone, you know, we all like as well.

Sure. I don't draft just based on best player available at all times. I don't think anybody should because your your best player available is going to depend on a bunch of different factors. And so, you know, your rankings are going to be a static list, but you shouldn't treat them as if they are because like there will be a point in every draft where like my top remaining player is an outfielder for like seven straight rounds. and I can't take 14 outfielders or whatever it would end up being.

So, you know, you try to account for that in your rankings with positional scarcity, but to a certain extent, like, you're just going to reach points where you have to pick guys who aren't necessarily your top ranked player. Especially in a categories league, Chris. I mean, you can't just follow a top 300 ranking list and think that your team is going to come out balance, right? So you have to weigh, you know, hey, even Corey, you know, while Corey Seager might be the top ranked player, maybe I need speed at this point

so I've got to look at a better need than just yeah yeah so definitely keep that in mind in that format this one's from 8 bit Jedi dear Ricky Paul and Dave oh this sounds like some kind of old baseball thing that Chris would know but not me is that like an Oakland

Athletics outfield I'm trying to was it a Yankees outfield uh maybe actually at one point Paul O'Neill Ricky Did they play together? I don't know.

I don't know. We'll look it up. Best value in a points league for my last keeper. $21, Aaron Judge, $6. Freddie Peralta, $1. Alec Menoa, $1, Shane McClanahan, and $1. Carlos Rodon.

I think that might be Carlos Rodon. It's either him or Freddie or Peralta, I think. Yeah, Carlis Rodon's been climbing up the rankings, and he's someone that I've been coming around more on throughout spring training. I think, you know, some people might hear that and think it's hypocritical, Chris, but I think that you have to be flexible with your thought process on certain players, because

we said a lot this offseason that we need more information when it comes to Carlos Rodan. You know, throughout the lockout, we were just kind of left wondering, you know, what happens next for Carlos Verdon? You know, he didn't even get the qualifying offer from the White Sox, right? And the last we saw of him is, you know, his Velo, is down the past month in the season. And we had legitimate question marks there about how healthy he was. And then all right, shows up in spring,

signed a two-year contract for a decent amount of money, $44 million with the Giants. Great organization. He's torn 98 miles per hour in spring training. I think this is a player that you should change your opinion on throughout this time of year. So yeah, $1, Carlos Rodon.

I think I still have McClanahan ranked the highest of the three, but they're right in, the same tier, the same point in my rankings, McLeanahan and Manoa, Rodon. So if you like Rodon more than the rest of those two, I have no problem with it. Yeah, and I do.

So that's, yeah, that's the way I would go. I'm still trying to figure out this. Paul O'Neill, it's like, no, I don't, it's not Paul. I did a Google search. I don't think that's what it is, but I can't. It's, I don't know. All right.

Let's move on. This was from Cajun Pete. Hello, Paul, Robin, and Raleigh. Rolly Fingers, I guess. Yeah, I'm not sure. We're getting stumped here. There's a shirt. Brewers.

Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Raleigh Fingers. Ah, yeah, I think that's right. All right. Did I win this trade? I'm in a 10-team Head-to-Categories League with saves plus holds. I have the third pick in my draft and traded my first, fourth,

and fifth round picks for the 10th picks, first, third, and fourth round picks. I now own picks 10, 18, 23, 30, and 31. I have five of the first 31 picks. Was it worth giving up an elite bat at pick three to get that? First, fourth, and fifth. For first, third, and fourth. I think so.

I think it is worth it. But you got, well, so you got... You move down from three to ten, but you get, you move up from your fourth round pick to this person's third round pick and you move up from your fifth round pick to this person's fourth round pick. So you move up substantially.

Well, one of them you do, right? Is the fourth you're moving up from... Oh, wait now, yeah, I'm trying to do... Trying to keep track of it in my head. Yeah, with the snake draft, it's kind of hard to calculate. My thought is it's fine. Yeah, so you're moving. I think, because yeah, you've got five in the first 31 now in a 10-team league

as opposed to you would typically have three. I think you didn't give up any total picks. You just kind of move down in one spot specifically. And I think specifically in a 10-team league, Chris, you want as much, as many difference makers as you can possibly get. So while you're losing out on one difference maker at pick three, you're still going to get a pretty damn good player at pick 10. Now that that does, though, get into the fact that, you know,

we all agree that there is a drop off after what, the top five at this point or top four. And so, you know, I do think it sort of depends on like if Ronald Acuna Kuna ends up getting there at 10 or Mike Trout, then I think it can work out really, really well. But yeah, all in all, I think that's fine. I think, you know, losing, dropping from 3 to 10 to pick up, you know, that many high-end picks is a viable strategy. All right. So to answer your question, yes, Cajun Pete, you did win that trade.

Let's move into some emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This one's from Miles. Hey, Kyle, Marcus and Wade. Kyle. Oh. These are Cubs starters. Kyle Hendricks. The top three in the Cubs rotation. Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley.

I drafted O'Neill Cruz in a couple of leagues, hoping he would make the opening day roster with the new CBA and a new CBA. its changes regarding prospects, would you stash someone like Cruz? And if so, for how long? None of the leagues I have him in have NA spots. So I'm using a bench spot by keeping him on my roster. Yeah, so just a couple of days ago, O'Neill Cruz was sent down to the minors. He's only played, I believe it's six games at AAA.

And they're trying to transition him into an outfielder as well. This is one of those situations where he's probably ready to play. but I also kind of understand why they send him down. If he's learning a new position, it sucks, but overall, I kind of get it. What do you think, Chris? Would you still use a regular bench spot to stash someone like O'Neill Cruz? Yeah, I mean, it gets more difficult the longer the season goes on. And so if the pirates end up holding him down until June, like that, you're going to have to make a really tough decision at some point.

But at the start of the season, when everyone's healthy, presumably, and, you know, if you've got IL spot, Yeah, I think you should be stashing O'Neill Cruz because he's the kind of player who, when he does get called up, it could be in the middle of April, and he could be a real difference maker. He could be someone who has, I mean, raw power comparable to anyone in baseball, seemingly, and the potential to steal a decent amount of bases as well. So I'm very excited about Arnaud Cruz.

And yeah, I'm stashing him wherever I can. Yeah, and 68 games in the minors last season, for O'Neill Cruz. He hit 310 with 17 home runs, 19 steals, and a 969 Ops. And so far in spring, he was 5 for 15 with two home runs. Just easy power, Chris. You've talked about it a lot. These were pitches that were down, out of the zone. O'Neill Cruz just flicks as bad at it. And these balls are flying like 400 plus games. So lots of upside. Definitely worth stashing him. Kyle, from a place where the cheese is under the sauce. That would be Detroit, right? That's their thing. Really? Is that a thing? Yeah. I think Detroit-style pizza is where the, it's like a pan

pizza, cheese, and then they just drizzle the sauce on top. There's a, there's a place in Williamsburg that I went to recently that had Detroit-style pizza. It was pretty good. Oh, wow. I never saw it like that before. It's got a very, like, what I like about it, it's like, I love a pan pizza, first of all. And then it's got a very, like, a hearty sauce. I've never been to Detroit. Have you been to Detroit, Chris? Never been to Detroit, no. No. All right, I got to get out there. I mean, hey, I love pizza. I'd be down with that.

You love pizza. Of course, you know, my mind just goes to New York originally, and there's a few spots in Brooklyn where they put the sauce on top of the cheese. I think there's like a famous pizzerre called LMBs. It's in, I think it's Bensonhurst. Somewhere deep out there in Brooklyn, but if you haven't tried to eat, Chris, you definitely should. It is awesome.

Hey, I think Emmys might. Emmy Squared might do that, too. Roses pizza, too, if you haven't had it. I love Rose is my go-to. Which roses do you go to? There's one in Williamford. Hmm. All right.

Let's talk about this afterwards. There's a few roses here in Queens as well. I don't know if they're related. So now I'm interested to know. This one, no, hey, Perry, Turk, and JD. Just finished my Scrubs rewatch. Was surprised at how much I enjoyed the last couple of seasons. I didn't watch season nine from what I've been told.

You don't have to. But I was surprised that's season seven and season eight. Pretty good. I, you know, I've seen a few episodes here and there. Is it actually worth watching, Chris? The first three to five seasons are really, really good consistently. I'm a big fan of scrubs. Is it in there, is it in the upper echelon of sitcoms or? It's true. Yes. All right. All right. Good to know. I recently joined a 12 team six by six Roto League with OPS and Quality Starts with standard lineup slots, corner infield and middle

infield but only three outfield spots and one utility. Is it wise to punt outfield doing their six infield slots and only three outfield slots? I'm guaranteed a top 50 outfielder no matter where I take them in the draft. I'm also thinking about completely punting steals. Um, okay. I hate this league. 12 teams six by six roto. So if it's just straight up roto, if it's not head to head categories, I would not punt any category. That's just, yeah, you can, can't, it's hard to punt in an actual roto league. If it's categories head to head, then you're fine doing it. But no, I don't think that's a, but like, the math on this is all wrong.

There are four starting infielders in every team, and there are three starting outfielders in every team. But here you've got six infielders for every fantasy team and only three outfielders for every fantasy team. So you're completely screwing up the ratio, even without accounting for, outfields just stronger than infield in fantasy. So I don't like this. I think it totally devalues outfield.

But yeah, I think you do have to devalue them in your approach. I don't think you should just punt because, like, Ronald O'Cunia and Juan Soto and Mike Trout and Huckie Betts and those guys play the outfield. But, yeah, filling up your three outfield spots super early, you know, could be a mistake. Yeah, you're going to have to be cognizant of it. At some point in the middle rounds, like Chris said, don't avoid drafting an elite outfielder just because you only have three outfield spots. But, you know, instead of, if you draft someone like Trout or Beds, maybe be wary of adding a George Springer or someone else like that, you know, too early in

this draft. It's unfortunate. But yeah, I talk to your league, man. At least add one more outfield spot. You know, one of my home leagues, head to add points. We have a corner. We have middle. So there's six infield spots.

But we have four outfielers instead of five. And it seems to work out fine. It's, you know, the waiver wire is not, you know, too lopsided or anything in terms of like infielders versus outfielders. So try to get them to add at least one outfield spot if you can. This one's from Ryan. I can keep one of these batters for the next two seasons

in a 14-te-to-head categories league with OPS as an added category. It doesn't say anything about pitching, but I guess for this question, it doesn't matter. Alex Kirloff in round 21, who has first base in outfield eligibility or Kbert Ruiz in round 25. I would go with Kerloff.

he's a little bit more expensive but I think the difference between 21st and 25th round is non-existent and I just think Kirillov is likely to give you better production now the catcher thing for Kbert-R-R-Ree's does matter

and there is a path for Kbert-Ree's given his contact ability to be a really, really good fantasy option at this position but I think Karolov has more upside as a hitter you know obviously I think

if positions weren't a thing, Kiroloff would be well ahead. And so, yeah, I think given that, I'll just take the guy I think as the better player. Yeah, makes sense to me. I'm hoping that this wrist surgery can finally get Kiralov back on track. He's dealt with it the past couple of years,

and he was really good last year before re-injuring that wrist and the stat cast numbers supported him. There's a lot of life there. Quality contact numbers were really good for Keraloff last year. Yeah, and then that's not to say that Kbert Ruiz, you know, this isn't the downplay him because I think he's exciting. and there's upside there as well,

but I do like Kirloff a little bit more myself as well. Let's hit a quick break, but first, reminder that you can send us your listener league submissions this weekend. We still have a few spots available in our 16 team head-to-head categories league, the For the People League created by Heath Cummings back in the day. And the draft will be this Tuesday,

April 5th at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. We'll do it live on YouTube. We'll do it live. And I will announce who is in the league on Monday's podcast. So make sure to get those in on. Saturday and Sunday, the email is Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, that's the letter I. When we return, we have more emails here,

Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's jump back in. This one's from Kevin. You need some Dynasty help. I took over a big rebuild, and I have Shohei Otani. Should I try to trade for Julio Rodriguez and Patrick Sandoval,

or Bobby Witt Jr. and Logan Gilbert in a points league? Or is that not enough? Should I ask for more? It's a lot, and I like all the players and all the various permutations. I don't know. I feel like you might be able to get more just because as much as we like Patrick Sandoval specifically, and Logan Gilbert is also a breakout candidate for both of us.

Neither of them is established enough to go along with the top prospect. Now, Bobby Witt and Holi Rodriguez are really, really good prospects, but I don't know. It feels like one player. light. I don't know if that that's the same case for you. But Otani's at the top of his value. You know, he's likely never going to have more value in dynasty than he does right now. And so I would still be asking for more. All right. I pulled up Scott's top 150 dynasty ranks. And he has Otani ninth overall. And he has Bobby Witt and Julio Rodriguez 22nd and 23rd respectively. so they are top 24 players

and he has Logan Gilbert at 103 and Patrick Sandoval is not on the list. So what a hater. Is a top 24 player and someone around pick 100 worth Shohei Otani? I think that kind of makes sense. I think it's close,

but I think I would want more. All right. So maybe try and get a Julio Rodriguez or a Bobby Witt and someone, who we value higher than Logan Gilbert in a dynasty league. This one's from Sean to Jake, Rick, and Willie.

That is the 1989 Cleveland baseball team or whatever year that movie came out? Major League. Major League. A movie I actually have seen, believe it or not. I'm in a head-to-head Categories League with Quality Starts as a category. I need to pick an ace to keep for this year, and I'm stuck between Walker Bueller and Corbyn Burns.

Who should I keep and why? I believe we all have Corbyn Burns ranked higher than Walker Bueller, but Walker Bueller produced a ton of quality starts last season, Chris. Yeah, I think that that might be enough to to balance it in

Walker Bueller's favorite. The hard thing to know is how much of that usage was just that Walker Bueller's, you know, thrown full seasons, each of the past four, whereas Corbin Burns had a full season in 2021, full season of 2020,

but in 2019 he was moved between AAA and the majors and then in the bullpen. So, you know, would he have been able to throw more quality starts and match Walker Bueller for innings if that hadn't been the case? That's the unknowable thing here. But we think he's a better pitcher than Walker Bueller. So I don't know. I think I would still lean towards Corbyn Burns.

I think so as well. So I just did some quick math. Corbyn Burns had 18 quality starts in his 28 starts last season. That's 64%. And Walker Bueller had 27 quality starts. He led baseball by far. Robbie Ray, Sandy Alcantra, they were second with 23. Bueller had 27 and 33 starts, so that's 81%.

But I think if Corbyn Burns is as good as he showed he was last year and builds off the inning total that he had last year, then he should earn more quality starts. So yeah, I would still take Corbyn Burns here. I think this makes it closer, but I would take Corbyn Burns as well. And he wraps up the email, thanks and never drink Joe Boo's rum.

You like rum, Chris? Yeah, yeah, rum. I had some mojitos this weekend in Puerto Rico, for sure. Yeah. You know, I didn't even know what liquor they used for mojitos. Little, little, yeah, white rum. All right. And I think Puerto Rico is known for rum, right?

Yes, yes. Don't you. That's the big distillery. This one's from Terry. Hey, Troy, Sam, and Francisco. I think I know what this is because I saw it in the email. He included. Do you have any guesses, Chris?

You're muted. I am blanking on it right now. That appears to be 2002 Angels Relievers. Oh, Troy Percival, Francisco, Rodriguez, and

gosh, I don't know who Sam was. I don't know who Sam is either. Let's quickly pull up the 2002 Angels roster and we'll figure

this out. So, I feel like that's one I should know. Sam, Sam. Sam. I don't see a Sam.

I don't see a Sam. Maybe it's 2000. I don't see one. Oh. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I think this guy's lying. Oh.

We found a loophole. I don't know if he's lying. I don't know. Maybe send us a follow-up email and let us know what we're missing here. Have you guys ever looked at the tie between hard hit rate and first-pitch strike percentage? I haven't, but I heard A.J. Hinch say this week that Terrick Scoobal could get his hard hit rate down if he could throw more first-pitch strikes. Maybe something to look into with young pitchers who have high hard-hit rates. So I've seen some data.

some studies done on this where obviously the results that happened within and at bat are drastically changed whether or not you go 0 and 1 and 1 and 0. So I think that, first and foremost, is a fact. I think that you can use

first pitch strike percentage to maybe find hitters who pitchers who were unlucky the prior year. But with that being said, Terrick Scouble already had a 64% first pitch strike percentage. percentage last season, which is a very good mark. League average for starters is 61.6%. So he's well over league average, yet his hard hit rate on Fangraphs was 38.4%, which was the highest in baseball.

And I know Stackass hated Terrick Scouble as well. So, Chris, I don't really know how much more Terrick Scouble could actually improve his first pitch strike percentage and how much that would help with his hard hit rate. Yeah, that's a tough one, you know, because one of the questions I have is does first pitch strike percentage include like played appearances where the batter hit the first pitch and put it into play because that is something that generally speaking,

hitters do much better on first pitch swinging. Now that's typically because pitchers are, you know, hitters are swinging at pitches in the first pitch that are more advantageous to swing at. But yeah, I don't really know what to make of that because it's also like

you're balancing it out is Terrick Scoobel or any pitcher who doesn't throw a lot of first pitch strikes if we want to not include Terrick Scoobel, are they going to adjust to that by throwing more first pitch fastballs? And is that actually going to make them more effective? That's tough. Like yes, it is better for every pitcher like you said to throw more first pitch strikes. It's just, you know, whether that's something that we can predict as a, you know, a specific feature, I don't really know how much value there would be in that. So I just looked into F strike percentage as it's known on Fangraphs. The percentage of plate appearances or batter's face that the first strike was, the first pitch was a strike. This includes any time that the count after the first pitch was 0 and 1, or anytime the ball was put into play on the first. pitch of plate appearances. Yeah.

And I believe it's our buddy Nick Pollack from pitcher list who has referenced that there is a, I don't know which site has it, but somewhere there is a true first pitch strike percentage stat that does not include balls in play. So I guess that would be more interesting to know for Terrick's Google because it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of these first pitch strikes that he's throwing according to Fangraphs are the ones that are getting crushed. So, yeah. Yeah, I mean, it looks like about a little less than 10% of his plate appearances ended on the first pitch.

He had 70 plate appearances that were where the ball was put in play on the first pitch. You give up a 908 OPS against them. That'll happen. That's, you know, like I said, hitters tend to do better when they swing at the first pitch. So I don't know if that's an abnormally high or low number. So, you know, this is something that would probably require more research than just doing it on the fly to have an answer. Hey, this is what's so awesome about baseball, Chris, is like the chess match, right? So obviously... Just an infinite number of possible questions. There's so many because as a pitcher,

you'd love to start 0 and 1, but you can't just float a ball in there because, you know, the best hitters, they're obviously going to take advantage. And that's where you see, I think truly, where you see the aces, the elite starting pitchers in baseball separate themselves because they can find ways to steal first pitch strikes, whether it's, you know, throwing a breaking ball for a first pitch, which we're seeing way more the past like five years than we've ever seen in baseball before that. But I think that's what really truly separates the elite starting pitchers from the not elite starting pitchers, is, you know, finding creative ways to steal that first pitch strike. This next one is from Peter. Hey guys, long time fan here. I was just

wondering how much stock we should put into the mock draft team rankings that we get during and after the draft. I am not sure if any other websites do this, but Yahoo, which is what I use for fantasy, does this. It ranks the teams based on the cumulative stats for rotodrafts. A part of me always wants to be in the top five of the rankings after a mock draft, but at the same time, these are based on projections provided by the website, which I don't believe should have too much importance. What do you think? You'd rather have a good team than a bad team coming out of the draft, and that that would be a one measure of a potential good or bad team. But the thing with projections is generally speaking, you're going off of what these various projection system say is the most

likely outcome for every player on your team. And now, the thing about that is that the most likely outcome is the most likely outcome. It's not the outcome that happens like consistently, you know, like projections are better as a whole than just people guessing, you know, like that that's just true. And then every good fantasy analyst will use projections as part of their process. But projections aren't going to, you know, by definition, they're going to miss on outlier performances. And outlier performances are what are going to define your fantasy season. And, you know, I guess another way to look at it is like most of your draft picks are probably going to either meet or fall short of expectations. And the way you win your fantasy league is with those handful of guys who wildly exceed your expectations.

And there aren't many players who are projected to wildly outperform their draft price in, you know, most fantasy drafts just because one, a lot of, like I said, a lot of analysts are incorporating. projections into their process. Those projections are part of what makes the default rankings in your leagues. And you're not going to find like the obvious values through projections necessarily. It's the guys who outperform their projections or underperform their expectations, their projections who are going to kind of make or break your fantasy league. So look, it's fun. I want to be in first place in the projected rankings coming out of the draft, but it doesn't matter. You shouldn't, like unless your team is just, just like fundamentally flawed in some way based on those projections in a way that's like

hard to deny. Like you just have zero stolen bases and you can't look at it and say, well, that's wrong. Then yeah, I mean, it's just fun. You shouldn't take much stocking it at all. I appreciate your well thought out, articulate answer, Chris. I have a lot quicker one. I don't care about this at all. I do not care about the emails that they send you right after your draft and they tell you, hey, your team is awesome. I almost would rather than tell me my team is bad because I just, you know, half the time, I don't agree with the projections that are on websites. So I think it's funny because we did our head-to-head points listener league on Wednesday night. And we got the email afterwards, Scott, Chris, Scott, you and myself, we were the bottom three ranked teams

in draft grade right after. So, uh, you love to see it. Scott had C minus. I had a D, you had a D-minus. So it's funny because, you know, we're doing this draft with listeners and, you know, we could get a little kick out of it. But ultimately, it really does not matter much to me at all. So I don't think it should matter to you either. This one's from Zach in Scranton, Dear Happy, Sunny, Billy, and Nikki. Those are the main characters of the four movies that Frank has seen. Yeah, that's true. What's your favorite Adam Sandler movie, Chris?

Favorite Adam Sandler movie is probably... Oh man, I don't know. There's so many. Honestly, I'm blanking. I'm about to Azer take this up. This is a very, very unpopular take. It just like generally, I guess, in the world. The world of Adam Sandler.

I love Little Nicky. I think it is so ridiculous. It is so funny. And it holds up to me. Like, I watch it now. It's just so ridiculous. And I still laugh. I go back and watch it now.

And I think it's so funny. I think it was ahead of its time. So, Little Nicky, I'm in. I know a lot of people hate Little Nicky, but I love it. I think it's hilarious. I think it's probably Happy Gilmore. Yeah, Happy Gilmore is awesome.

I think that's the one. I like the tearjerker ones too. Like, Big Daddy was awesome too. Like, it was funny, you know. It's too long. It's too long for me. But no, I think it's happy Gilmore. I have the fifth pick in a 10-team six-by-six-Roto League,

OPS and quality starts are the extra categories. Assuming the top four go as planned, should I target Bo, Bichette, Garrett Cole, or Bryce Harper at 5th. I feel like I'd be reaching for Bo, but the Steels upside is great, and I'm confident I can get Bueller, Scherzer, or Corbin Burns with my second pick.

Where's the value here? So this is a format where Bo Bichet does lose a little bit of value because OPS, he just is not a standout in. He was like 840. or something last year, despite, you know, having a very good season overall. Bryce Harper was much better in OPS, but that's only one of six categories, and you look at the rest of them. And you think Boba Chet probably should be better in four of them, I would guess, average

steals RBI and runs, maybe one of the runs or RBI are not. But I don't know. I think that's close. I kind of think I would go Harper over Boba Chet, though, because, you know, yes, Boba Chet does have the stolen base. upside that Bryce Harper does and he might have eight to ten more steals, but those steals are less valuable because it's one of 12 categories instead of one of 10. And so that gap matters less. So if you think you'll be able to get one of the high-end pitchers with your next pick, then yeah,

I think Bryce Harper in an OPS six-category league makes sense over Boba-Shed. I agree. Yeah. I think Harper could have the advantage, really, it would not surprise me, in all five categories in five of the six stolen bases withstanding there. Batting average, we just saw it was better last year. OPS was better. And we talked about this recently, Chris. I mean, there's so much variance year over year in terms of counting stats, right? Like, we all think the Blue Jays lineup is going to be amazing.

And on paper, it should. It will be good. But anything could happen. And, you know, on the other side of that, the Phillies lineup, they just added Nick Cassiano's and Kyle Swarber. So, you know, Bryce Harper is going to be right in the middle. middle of a ton of counting stats. So yeah, in OPS League, I would take Bryce Harper ahead of Bobachette.

This one's from Jordan. A keeper question. Ten team head to head categories league. Yahoo standard. Keep three of these four. Raphael Devers, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, Jacob deGrom. Leaning toward keeping all three bats, but the way DeGrom has looked this spring is making me queasy about letting him go.

Yeah, I mean, look, you're never going to feel good about letting Jacob deGrom go when he looks like this, but I do have the other three ranked ahead of him. I guess the way you could look at it is in a 10-team league, you know, having Devers, Tucker and Freeman, it's not overkill. You can't have too many good players, but, you know, I guess having DeGrom would give you that base in starting pitching, but I think I would still just go with the three guys I have ranked higher. Um, and just, you know, you'll be, you'll hopefully be able to get a high-end pitcher. anyway, and DeGrom is a very, very good one. He's the best one in baseball when he's healthy,

but I don't know. It is really tough. I would keep the three hitters. I would keep the three hitters, yeah. I would go away from DeGrom. As awesome as DeGrom has looked, Chris, I think that you've summed this up very well is it's not a matter of how he looks now.

It's, you know, can he be, how is he going to look a month from now? How is he going to look two months from now? Is he going to be healthy by then? Because for the first two or three months last season, He was far and away the best pitcher in baseball, really for the past couple of years. But, you know, there's no doubting when he's on the field how great he's going to be. It's just, you know, how long will that last?

So I still have those concerns for DeGrom. I would keep the three hitters and then just load up on a bunch of pitchers early on. Maybe even use, like, your first two or three picks on pitchers. This one's from Dave. I'm in a 12-team head-to-head points league with five keepers. Keepers count as your first five picks. I'm keeping Bo Bouchet, Freddie Freeman, Corbyn Burns, and Robbie Ray. I can't decide between Alex Bregman, Bobby Witt, or Justin Verlander as my fifth.

I read this question, Chris, and I couldn't figure it out because Verlander gives you the best chance to win this year. It's a head to head points league. But Bobby Witt has this massive upside. He could, you know, we could be talking about him as a top two or three round player next year. It's tough. So how long do you get to keep the players is the key? Is it just one season?

it doesn't say here. Doesn't say. If it's just for 2022 or 2023, I think you just keep Verlander because he's my highest ranked player of this group and I think he gives you the best chance to win this season. But if you could keep it for 2024,

then just having, you know, Bobby Webb potentially locked in, like you know Justin Verlander has value for this year and maybe next year. But that's it. That's the end of his career, almost certainly. Yeah.

Witt, you know, if you're talking about 2024, for then it starts to get a little more interesting, but I think Verlander giving you the best chance to win right now and still potentially being a very high-end option next season if he's good this season. I would lean Verlander over Witt and over Breggman. Well said. I agree.

This one's from Brian. Grade the trade. Give Kevin Gosman, Kyle Tucker, and Luis Robert get Max Scherzer, Mookie Betz, and Jonathan India in a head-to-head points league. Okay, so give Scherzer bets in India. Sorry, get Scherzer bets in India. Give Gosman.

I think the collection of players that you're giving up is better overall, but I think you're getting higher-end talent. And a head-to-head points league, I think I would rather have the ace in Max Scherzer. Mookie bets, in a points league,

I think is still going to be better than Kyle Tucker. It's close. I think better than Tucker. Yeah, I It's close The gap between Robert and India Is hard to overcome I think it sort of depends on the depth of the league too

Yeah If it's a 10 team league It's even easier to just take the downgrade Because those two higher end guys are better I lean towards saying yes But It's really tough Because there's a chance that India is

I don't know if dropable in a points league, but, you know, certainly a fringe starter, whereas I think Gosman, Tucker, and Robert are going to be must-start guys. So it's tough. C is an even trade. I think you won this trade slightly. I'll give you a C-plus. Do you have a grade, Chris?

Yeah, I'd say C-plus-ish. Okay, let's wrap up with some fantasy justice. Oh! Gets me every time. In case you're wondering, what is fantasy justice if this is the first time hearing it. Adam Azer, who used to host this podcast, used to do fantasy regulators, but for copyright reasons, we can no longer do fantasy regulators. So if you have a question that is not fantasy related, that pertains to your league, maybe rules or vetoes or some kind of corruption going down,

send us an email and put fantasy justice in the subject line. Dear Sal, Murr, and Q. I got no idea. What? Those are the impractical jokers, Chris. Oh, yeah, I don't want that show. Oh, it's so funny. I've seen it like during March Madness, and that's about it. I don't know that there is anything on television that can make me laugh harder than impractical jokers. It is, it's good. It's really good.

I like it. So let's jump in. I am in a 12 team head to head points league with daily lineups. This is the second year of our Keeper League, and I am the commissioner. At the end of the trade deadline of the 2021 season, a team traded Yuan Moncata, Michael Kopeck and Catele Marte for Vlad Jr.

The manager that traded away Vlad Jr. was clearly not planning to stay in the league after the first season. They never paid and they made few waiver wire moves. The manager that traded Vlad was also out of playoff contention and would have needed keepers in return. The new manager taking over felt obligated to keep those three pieces instead of better pieces.

As commissioner at the time, I considered vetoing the trade knowing all of this. Should I have vetoed? and should anything be done to the teams before the 2022 draft? There's nothing you can do after the fact, but this is one of those scenarios in which, yeah, you would consider, you know, vetoing a trade because that's clearly not balanced,

even in a keeper league, Yon-Maccata, Michael Kopeck and Cotel-Martay, unless there's, like, some massive difference in the salaries involved. That's clearly an unbalanced trade, and if the guy trading away Vlad Jr. was clearly not invested in his team moving forward, then yeah, that's absolutely the type of situation where the commissioner should or at least can step in

and prevent that because it's for the good of the league. Now, you know, the new manager taking over felt obligated to keep those three pieces instead of better pieces. Look, he didn't make that trade. So he's under no obligation to keep those players. He should keep the best players. And so, you know, maybe offer him the ability to go back and keep the better players rather than having to stick

with the lopsided trade that he didn't make. But yeah, I think this is one of the rare scenarios in which I think you absolutely do consider vetoing a trade is when it's, you know, this is going to impact. It's all about whether the players involved are operating in good faith. And clearly the manager who was trading away Vlad Jr. wasn't. He wasn't operating with an intention of, you know, building his team for the to be the best it can be in the future. He didn't care about that.

And so, you know, when you're talking about a trade like that of a player like Vlad for keepers, you can live with a player making their team worse in the short term if it's going to make them better. But clearly that wasn't the case here. And he wasn't operating in good faith. And so that's where the commissioner absolutely should consider stepping in. And moving forward, you know, if you have a player that you think isn't interested or invested in the league moving forward, then, yeah, you should probably consider not allowing them to make trades. Chris, what do you do, though, in a scenario, I'm just, this is a hypothetical. What if the person trading away Vlad Jr. just has a ton of faith in Yoan Moncada and Michael

Kopec and Ketel Marte, and they think in their eyes that this is a good trade, then as the then they're allowed to make a bad trade. Okay. All right. I think the distinction here is that they didn't think the guy making the trade wanted to be in the league anymore. Sure. You know, he never paid. He wasn't like, if you haven't paid, I, I'm fine not allowing someone who never paid their league entry fee to make moves. Like, I think that's a perfectly reasonable response to someone not, because that person's not invest in the league. And ultimately, it's not about is it trade fair or is a trade, you know, like people are

allowed to make mistakes with the teams that they're paying for. The question is, is that person trying to win? And in this case, they weren't. And in this case, they weren't trying to win in 2022 either. So, you know, that's where it comes down to. It's not, I'm not here to, like, tell people to hold managers hands and say, you know, hey, you can't make that trade because it's a bad trade. It's fully about whether someone is operating with the intention of winning

their league or making their team better. And this person wasn't. Yep. Well said. And I agree that the person who's taking over that team should not have to keep those three players, even though that was part of the quote unquote keeper trade. So definitely allow them to keep whatever players are available on the roster. Fantasy justice has been served. Yeah, yeah. All right, we're going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching. All of our Mailbag podcast this offseason. We will see you again on Monday. Bye-bye.