Fantasy Baseball Today - Our First 2026 Mock Draft! Early Rounds & Surprising Picks! (11/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: November 13, 2025Our first 2026 mock draft was wacky (4:42). ... It feels like there's a consensus top five picks (7:30). ... Why is Kyle Tucker's ADP so low (10:18)? ... Chris went pocket aces with his first two pick...s (17:37). ... Get used to Junior Caminero in the second round (23:50). ... Are PCA and Wood still worth third-round picks (26:57)? ... Round three ended with three first basemen in a row (33:21). ... Should Blake Snell go in the fourth round (38:23)? ... Is this enough of a discount on Jackson Merrill and Jarren Duran (41:47)? ... News (47:06): the Cy Young award winners were announced. ... We wrap up with interesting picks made throughout the draft (55:30). Link to our first mock draft: https://tinyurl.com/mthmrz3k Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
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Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
It's about time to recap our first mock draft for 2026.
Welcome into fantasy baseball today.
On Thursday, November 13th, I am Frank Stample, joined by Scott White.
And Chris Towers, we are reunited.
Today on the show, we are diving into that mock draft.
12-team Roto, standard 5-by-5 categories.
We'll look at the early rounds, some surprising picks.
Basically, players you might be interested to know where they wound up in this draft,
and we will recap our teams towards the end.
I was drafting 5th, Scott was 10th, Chris was 11th.
Before we get into that, Scott, shout out to you, man, answering your phone on a Friday night.
That was amazing stuff.
Thank you.
Thank you.
I hesitated when I saw your name.
I was like, is he going to throw me into an uncomfortable situation here?
And the answer was 1,000% yes.
Yes, it was.
It was very uncomfortable.
But, you know, I'm glad I could contribute in some way.
I haven't joined you guys on any of those first pitch Arizona trips yet.
I had a
particularly good reason not to this year.
But yeah, I mean
someday I might.
Someday I might. I'm leaving the door open.
The door is open.
We just need Scott.
See. Burst on through.
Let's go.
Seems like people really want me to.
There's a lot of demand for your presence.
There are a lot of questions you could get at this conference.
Like, Frank, who's your favorite sleeper for next season?
And Chris, what prospect do you like next year?
Nope.
Nobody cares about that for sure.
Where is Scott?
Where is Scott?
They are overestimating the amount of fun I would bring to this get together.
It's the novelty of it, Scott.
The novelty.
Just Scott and I are old news.
We've gotten his natural environment.
Anything but my natural environment, actually.
This is my natural environment.
Yeah.
This living room that people have only seen me in for.
the last seven years or so.
I like that when Frank visited.
And so, you know, I visited him here.
We didn't just come here, though we did spend some time here.
But the photo evidence of us together was this background.
I made sure of that.
Yes.
So they would actually believe it was Frank.
It's like holding up the newspaper with the date in a hostage thing.
You got to, that's how you prove it's real.
Yeah.
Good times.
Good times.
All right, Scott.
Well, you know what?
The door is open.
We'll try again next year.
But he's saying there's a chance.
So we'll keep that open for next year and years to come.
Let's get into this mock draft.
It was our first mock of the off season.
Of course, it's going to be a little bit wacky.
The draft room rankings haven't been updated yet.
Many of the drafters just kind of flying blind this early on.
We actually did this mock draft two weeks ago while the World Series was still going on.
So even since then, things have changed in ADP.
and all that kind of fun stuff.
You can find the entire draft on the website,
cbfsports.com slash fantasy slash baseball,
and I will put the draft results in the YouTube and podcast description.
I will also pull up the draft board for those watching on YouTube,
and boom.
There it is.
So I mentioned we'll focus on the early rounds,
and we'll kind of bounce around and do some other things as well.
12-team rotos, standard five-by-five categories,
two catchers, one of each infield position,
one corner, one middle, five outfielders,
one utility bat and then nine total pitchers.
And let's take a look here at the top five picks because...
Well, go ahead.
Before you get into it, I just wanted to say it's probably for the best that we're focusing
on the early rounds because the draft board, the 2026 draft board is very much in its infancy
right now.
And there's a lot of flying by the seat of the pants.
There hasn't really been a true consensus to form, particularly since NFBC ADP wasn't
up when we did this.
I think now some consensus will start to form around this ADP.
But even then, it's going to look very different five months from now when the vast
majority of people are drafting.
I think the early rounds are a little more, have been talked through a little more.
There may be a little more solid.
But beyond that, it's just complete and utter chaos.
And that was certainly true for this draft.
Some picks were made that would honestly send me into a rage if I let it.
But I know I'm also one of the few people who's fully ranked for 2026 now.
And that gives me, it makes it so that I have an advantage, I guess.
But, you know, you get what I'm saying.
Like, it's people are flying by the seat of their pants.
Not everybody's an overachiever like you, Scott.
Not everybody has the time to vote to it during football season.
Some of us have to do our homework at the last minute.
Full transparency, I used Scott's rankings for this draft because I just, I don't have any myself yet.
And I would imagine that's most of the drafters at this point in the off season.
We have talked about the top five a lot.
And it feels like there is a consensus top five.
What order are they going to go in?
I think that might change from draft to draft.
but in this one we saw Shohei Otani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, and then Bobby Witt, Jr., to me at pick five.
Again, I think this is a clear top five, but I was pretty shocked to get Witt last of the five here.
Yeah, I think the two surprising things are Otani head of judge in a league where you effectively don't get credit for his pitching.
You can start him there, but then you don't get credit for his hitting that week if you do.
effectively it's just a one way otani i think judge should go ahead of him um and yeah i i think
which should still be third um mostly because i think we have as we talked about on the first pitch
arizona pod very real questions and we've talked about many times otherwise real questions
about how many stolen bases you're actually going to get from juan soto um frank you and i think
set the over under at 19 and a half and steamer projections came out projected
Juan Soto for 20 steals on the nose, so...
And that would be the second most in his career by like eight or something, right?
Yeah, eight more than his second highest total so far.
So even that would be a relative outlier.
I genuinely have no idea, but I do think Bobby Witt's profile is just a little more fantasy-friendly
because of the elite stolen bases.
I think he's a better bet for batting average as well.
Soto will hit for more power, certainly.
I do have Bobby Witt third overall because I think I think probably his 2025 is at the low end of what we should expect from him.
And he's clearly a better batting average source than Ramirez.
And I think also Soto we have to say at this point.
But he's not, Witt is not like the clear cut number three.
Yeah, sure.
I think Otani and Judge in some order, and for what it's worth, early ADP does have Oatom.
money ahead of judge.
So those are one and one A.
I don't get that one.
Yeah, I don't either, but they're one and one A.
It's not the sort of thing that's going to really get a big reaction out of me.
And then that Witt Soto Ramirez cluster, which is how I order them personally, they went Soto Ramirez, went in this draft.
But that's kind of 3, 3A and 3B.
So it doesn't really bother me what order they go in.
I am a little surprised
which was taken third of them.
Yeah, I totally agree.
And if there are,
if there's people out there
that think Soto might just continue to run,
maybe not 38 steals,
but if you trust the steals a little bit more,
it's totally defensible to take him as high as three
in this spot, which is what we saw.
So the back of the first round pick six through 12.
We get Ellie De LaCruz,
Corbyn, Carol, Kyle Tucker,
Ronald Lucuna Jr., Terax Cougal went to Scott,
Garrett Crochet to Chris,
and then Julio Rodriguez,
at 12. So definitely a few things to touch on here. Before we get to your pitcher picks,
Kyle Tucker at 8. Wanted to mention this. I'm good with it here. I'm good with like a mid to
late first round pick on Kyle Tucker. Early ADP has him at 18.3. I got him in the draft I just
did this past weekend at first pitch Arizona at pick 16. And obviously I was it's not going to
last. Ecstatic to get that. I think part of it is he's a free agent. I think part of it is,
of it is he's a free agent like an NFPC league specifically those free agent's values are just
outrageously suppressed and it's been it's been a constant over the years enough that like we have to
just factor it into our analysis but go ahead and finish your thought i mean i think the fact that
a lot of NFBC leagues are 15 team leagues and there's no i l spots either i think there is kind of a
hey he's been hurt two years in a row even though those injuries are not related in any way i think people
I think people are worried about him missing time in the future, too.
I definitely think there's some of that.
I don't want to say it's just that he's a free agent.
I think people are concerned about the injuries.
I don't think they should be, really.
I think these were, I don't know,
unless you think there is some mechanism that makes Kyle Tucker harder to diagnose than other hitters,
I think it was just a fluke thing that he dealt with that shin injury that got my misdiagnosed in 2020.
24 and then the hand injury was initially misdiagnosed right and then it it turned out that they
were just like am i getting the timeline right that like they misdiagnosed it it was a fracture that
they misdiagnosed as a as a strain both years it was it was a it was an injury that wasn't
called a fracture at first and then it was later discovered but i think the distinction between
2024 and 2025 is the cubs eventually diagnosed the injury correctly and just did
didn't tell us if I'm remembering the way that worked out, that they were just kind of playing
coy about what the true nature of the injury was, where the Astros genuinely bungled the
situation. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not sure I see a distinction for our purposes. Sure. Okay. Yeah.
The one that really raises an eyebrow for me is Ellie De La Cruz at sixth. Okay. As I sit here in my
my Reds T-shirt, that felt like, and I feel like in this particular draft,
there was a lot of defaulting to last years to where they were drafted last year
because L.A. Dela Cruz 6th heading into 2025 in a Roto League would not have been a surprise at all.
But we saw the stolen bases especially drop off quite a bit.
I'm not going to say they fell off a clip.
He was still a good base dealer, but he went from being like the best base dealer to just another good base dealer.
And I think under Terry Francona, I've actually read about how this is,
was part of his philosophy with the Reds,
only encouraging them to run
in the situations where it made sense
rather than just to pile up steel.
So I think Elie Delecruz,
the most we should hope for from him,
steals-wise going forward is 40,
at least as long as Terry Francona's there.
Now he couldn't prove as a hitter.
I still have him as a first rounder,
but end of first round rather than middle
where he was taken here.
Both of you guys took pitchers here.
Scott, you took scuba.
Chris, you took crochet.
Scott, is this just because scuba was available,
or were you just planning to take a pitcher no matter what at this pick?
Well, not no matter what.
I assume if a cooombe was there, you might have done it.
Yeah, no, I didn't go into this draft saying,
let me take a pitcher and see how it goes.
I just scuba was the top player on my draft board.
I think he was exactly 10th for me.
And so the top nine players here,
not in the same order,
but the top nine players taken were my top nine players.
Scoobel was there.
I've said a few times on this podcast,
that I'm more open this year than I've been in the last several years
to taking one of the elite early round starting pitchers
because I think scoble, crochet, and skeeens
so clearly stand out from the rest of the starting pitcher crop
that I feel like the advantage they give me at that position
is justifies the little bit of risk that comes with taking a pitcher
this early versus a hitter.
So I took scoobble at 10th because that was,
my 10th best player.
And Chris, we'll get to you in a second
because you actually took pictures
with both of your first two picks
for those watching or listening.
Would you take a picture in the first round?
Drop a comment on YouTube
or let us know in the live chat.
And after you do that,
hit the like button and subscribe to the channel
for a bunch of off-season fantasy baseball content.
Let's take a quick break.
We'll get into round two right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
We are recapping our first mock draft
for 2026 and we are jumping into round two,
which means I should probably change what is up on the screen
for those watching.
So round two, we have Vlad Jr., who is paired up with Julio Rodriguez,
then Paul Skeen-Sachian, Francisco Lindora Scott,
Cal Raleigh, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Nick Kurtz.
So Chris, pocket aces, crochet, and skeins,
that is spicy without giving away your entire team.
How do you think it worked out, starting with two?
two pitchers in this draft?
Yeah, mostly I just wanted to see what it would look like and see if it's a viable strategy.
Because I think it's going to be a thing this year.
It's been a while since we've had a true pocket aces approach being viable.
I think probably like, I really think you have to go back to like the Kershaw-Degrom era when those were the top two pitchers where people were really talking about it.
We've moved away from that.
But like Scott said, I think those first three guys are, it's about.
those three being head and shoulders above the rest of the position. I also think that's just
once you get past those three, I think it's a lot flatter at the position to, you know, we've,
we talked about those kind of four through 12 or four through 15 being very similar, however
you want to break it up. And I think that's also a reason that I don't know if I necessarily want to
skip this top three and end up having to take one of those four through 15. And, you know,
the guy I want not being there or people start pushing them up into the second or third round
at a price that I'm just not comfortable with for those guys at all.
So I wanted to experiment and see if pocket aces was a viable approach.
The offense, you have to make some sacrifices for sure.
You're not going to get as many of those true five category guys.
My approach in this one was to kind of focus on,
I took a few interesting young guys, but for the most part, it was more boring volume plays at hitter.
You know, Bryce Harper, Mani Machado, Nico Horner.
Very good players, but not necessarily guys that people are going to be really excited to push up their boards.
And so I think it worked out okay.
I'm not like totally in love with it.
I'm not saying it's like the best way that you can build a team, but I think it works.
I was going to do it if you didn't.
And I wasn't looking forward to it, but I really wanted to use this first mock draft,
mainly just to test the viability of my rankings, which I had completed, as I said, before doing this mock draft.
That's actually why I scheduled the mock draft for when I did as soon as I finished putting together my rankings.
Mock draft time.
So I had taken Scuble in round one.
I hadn't imagined schemes would make it to me in round two.
But I was prepared to do it if Chris hadn't taken schemes one pick before me.
So I would have been the one trying to figure out offense.
And I imagine how many rounds did you go without taking a pitcher after taking crocheting skeins, Chris?
I took Yon-Daron in the ninth round.
And then...
Yeah.
So from the second to the ninth...
Starting pitcher until Chris Bubich in the 15th.
Oh, wow.
Yeah.
I really pushed it.
Yeah.
What round did you take Ms. Yarowski?
Because I know you wound up with him.
some of those young guys really fell
because I was
planning on taking
Chase Burns in the 11th round
and he,
I think he got taken
one pick ahead of me
and Mizirowski was
the 16th round
that's not gonna happen.
I don't think you should
wait that long
but I think when I was
when I wrote your teams
on the rundown
just earlier today
I thought you played it right
I thought waiting on your SP3
and I thought your rotation
kind of stuff
came together all right.
But it might not.
Yeah.
To Chris's point, like a lot of starting, once we get into the mid-round range of this early mock draft,
there were a lot of pitchers taken well before they should have been just because people
were working within incomplete rankings, just, you know, going with gut feel or whatever.
Mizorowski's actual, so Chris took him 186th, I believe, 12nd.
His actual ADP is 127.
So to his point, and like Hamshletler 130, yeah, those specific upside-y pitchers probably aren't lasting that long in a draft by the time we're drafting for keeps.
The only other thing I wanted to mention here from the top part of the second round, Vlad Jr. over Kurtz, I think is pretty interesting.
The early ADP has that reversed with Kurtz at 16.4 and Vlad at 20.6.
I think that's probably going to be the case in most drafts,
Kurtz over Vlad, but...
Yeah, I was...
All I could figure is Vladimir Guerrero.
Again, this was in the middle of the world series,
and Vladimir Guerrero had a great postseason performance,
and so maybe he got a little bit of a bump in this draft.
Maybe Drew Klein, who took him,
just really has a strong feeling about Guerrero,
but I think of him as more like a late second rounder
than the first pick in round two where he went here.
given the questions over his power production.
Only hit 23 home runs, only drove in 84 runs this past year.
And that was without missing any time for injury.
I think we're also already seeing Vlad's price get pushed up.
I don't know.
It's only a handful of drafts, but I would guess he was closer to like 24, 25,
even before the end of the World Series.
So I think you're already seeing a little bit of price inflation there
that will probably die off by the time we get a little further removed from the World Series.
I would guess.
I know the steamer projections have Vlad much higher than Nick Kurtz,
but I also think that they're a little bit more conservative on first and second year players and things like that.
So, you know, just take it with a grain of salt.
It doesn't mean everything, but I know a lot of people do draft based off of projections.
So, yeah, those are probably going to get closer, Vlad versus Kurtz.
The back half of round two, we had Gunner Henderson, Jackson Trio, to me, Catelle Marte, Junior Caminero.
Kyle Swarber and Trey Turner.
So I paired Chorio up with Bobby Witt.
Love it.
Power, speed, batting average to start with both of those guys.
And get used to seeing Camerro this early.
It might, you know, shock some people who haven't, you know, thought about, you know, drafts for next season or anything like that.
his early ADP is actually much higher than this.
It's 14.7.
And in this draft, he went to pick 22.
I do think part of that is just how bad third base is too.
I think that's played a factor early on.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, you had a 21-year-old third baseman hit 45 home runs.
I don't think it should shock anybody to see that I dropped it around two.
And he was the top prospect of baseball.
It's not like this came out of nowhere.
You know, even more than Nick Kerr.
Kurt, Junior Kamenaro was expected to be this kind of guy.
Yeah, I'm not saying he doesn't deserve to be there,
but, you know, people checking back in for the first time,
I think, oh, you know, I was getting Kamenaro at, you know,
pick 80 last year.
Wow, now I've got to use a second round pick.
That's a lot more expensive.
How do we feel about Cal Raleigh?
He went 16th overall.
That is about where I have him, but I think I'm,
I think I have him higher than.
It's going to happen.
ADP has him at 16.5.
It won't be me who does it,
but I think.
he's deserving of being drafted that high? I just I think there are too many ways for
things to go wrong for a catcher to justify taking him that high. Maybe I'll get to the
point where I put my rankings together and that's going to start in the next couple of
weeks. Put my overall rankings together and that's just where he ends up. You know, that's
entirely possible but I'm a little skeptical of that price right now. It's also just
I know he stole what 14 bases last year yep that's great yeah I don't know that I don't know that
anybody's drafting him for steals but you are if he's a 50 homer catcher sure with zero steals he's
still worth the second round big but I do think you have to keep in mind that you're probably
putting yourself at a disadvantage in two categories by taking him that high he's probably
going to be the lowest batting average player taken in the first couple of rounds he's probably
going to be one of the worst stolen base guys.
Funny enough,
Nick Kurtz is probably the only one
or one of the only ones who I would project to be
Swarber. Certainly worst steals.
Schwerber as well.
But like all three of those guys are probably going to hit
250-ish. And
I guess Kurtz, maybe there's
room for more because he's so young,
but the XBA was like 255
or something for him. So
I probably won't be doing that just
because it's
hard to dig a hole.
It's hard to dig yourself out of a ratio's hole with your early picks.
Yeah, no, I totally get that.
We are into round three.
We see Jazz Chisholm, P. Crow, Armstrong, Pete Alonzo, James Wood,
Yordon Alvarez went to me, and then Logan Gilbert, who was the SP4 off the board in this draft,
and obviously has been a widespread conversation so far in the offseason.
PCA and James Wood, despite the awful second halves, drafted in the early third round here.
You guys agree with that?
good with that? I mean, if you're just looking at their overall numbers, I think this is where
you draft them. And I think that's probably what you should do, is not slice and dice the season,
say, oh, this is how he was in the second half, so let's project that over a full season, but just
take the totality of their season with all the ups and downs, regardless of the timing of them,
and say, okay, he came out with these numbers at this age, at this stage of his career,
what kind of trajectory does that put him on?
And it's still a very strong trajectory for both of them.
So I think you're factoring in enough of the risk here by letting them last to round three.
And that's about where I put him is early round three.
So I would be willing to take them at that point.
and honestly they kind of form a barrier here
between the obvious first and second round types
which I believe
I believe the 1 through 24 were my exact 1 through 24
again not in the same order but it was the same players
and then you get this barrier with P. Crow Armstrong James Wood
kind of riskier
but then after them you see a clear drop-off
in terms of what a point.
player is capable of statistically, or at least what we expect them to do statistically.
So they're kind of your last chance at maybe getting that first second round type production,
just with a little more risk.
The one exception I would say for that is a guy who's actually going a little bit later
than he was drafted in this one, I believe, and that's Jordan Alvarez, who I do think.
Yeah.
I don't know about you guys.
I was on a panel at first pitch Arizona, and we were talking about, like, you know, it was a hitter-focused.
panel and I got Yordon Alvarez and I basically said I have zero performance concerns by Yorna
Alvarez. I know he had a sub 800 OPS last season. He had one bad month and then got hurt and then
played like himself when he came back before getting hurt again. I know the injuries are a big
concern but you are looking at one of the few players who I think legitimately could, how many players
in Major League Baseball,
could you see hitting 350 homers in the same season?
Like in a absolute best case scenario.
I think Yorna Alvarez has that kind of skill set.
Three, maybe?
I could see Aaron Judge doing it,
Shohay Otani.
I'm pretty sure they've both done that.
Yeah.
I could see Juan Soto in a best case scenario.
The power is a little iffy.
Maybe you want to dream on Nick Kurtz or maybe,
but like,
Yorna and Alvarez has shown,
though, the necessary skills to do all,
both of those things, right?
He hits the ball incredibly hard.
He's got phenomenal play discipline.
It's just can he stay on the mound.
The, the, not mound.
Diamond.
The field.
The Astros might need him on the mound if they don't bring back for Ambrantz.
But I was very upset when you took him because I was.
I think if you are going to go pocket aces,
Yaron Averest is like the perfect player to.
to build your strategy around
and in most cases based on the ADP
that should work
he should make it back to you at the end of the third round
he didn't hear it was very frustrating
I would feel a lot better about this team
if you swapped Yordon Alvarez in it at UT
and literally anyone at first base
I actually disagree with your last point
entirely I think I'm much more likely
to take Yordon Alvarez in a situation like I did
where he's my third hitter
there's no way I would want him as my first hitter because I do think there is still a lot of risk.
And then obviously you have to build around him after that.
I would like to almost cushion him with one or two hitters before I draft Jordan Alvarez.
Because then if he gets hurt, you know, you kind of have those other names to fall back on.
But that's just me.
But when you're looking at the other guys I could have taken there, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers.
Yeah, they come with risks too.
Yeah, I get that.
Mani Machado, Bryce Terang.
Like, I certainly wouldn't feel better about any of those.
guys is my first player my first hitter than yorda on average and maybe that's a reason to not take
pocket aces but i mean what chris is proposing is they higher upside approach yeah like you just presume
you just you just mark you just scratch out 2025 for yorda alvarez it doesn't count you look at what
he did 24 23 22 21 yeah that four year stretch legit four category stuff if he just gives you that
it's a steal in round three.
It's like you got a first round hitter.
More or less, I mean,
there have been some weird carrying stats.
He's never gone to 100 in runs in RBI before.
He's never actually gotten to 40 in home runs, much less 50.
So I get what you're saying, that he has the skill set to do it.
But realistically, you're hoping he hits 290 with 35 homers and maybe 90 runs in RBI.
So borderline first round production potentially in round three.
The big thing for me is it's just it's so hard if you're not getting elite hitters like early first two rounds.
It's so hard to make up batting average.
And he's the one guy in that range that I feel extremely confident is going to give me a very good batting average.
So we saw Paul Skeens go at pick 14 and then we didn't see another pitcher drafted again until Logan Gilbert at 30.
And that makes sense, right?
I mean, based on what we've said, I mean, there is a huge drop off, I think, in talent and
and reliability from those top three pitchers to, you know, everybody else.
And then it's a huge tier, so you almost want to wait for someone else to take a pitcher
and then kind of dive into that tier.
So I think that totally makes sense.
And we're going to start to see more pitchers go off the board here as well.
In the back half of round three, we saw Muki Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Christopher Sanchez,
Matt Olson went to Scott, Bryce Harper to Chris, and then Raphael Devers.
So, again, once you see that SP4 go, we kind of get a bit of a bit of.
of a snowball effect here. Other pitchers going Yamamoto, Christopher Sanchez, uh, in that same tier.
Scott, I know you said you would wait until round four, I believe, you know, for another pitcher
to come off the board. But again, once we see one, you're going to start to see that kind of snowball
effect. So yeah. And, you know, technically I have two pitchers ranked at the end of round three.
Chris Sale is my 34th player, Yoshinobu Yamamoto's my 35th player, then Logan, Gilgill.
Gilbert 38th. Of course, Logan Gilbert was the first of the three to go in this draft.
I'm just saying I'm less likely to do that than I am to take Terrick Scoobal or crochet or skeins at the round one-two turn.
I'm less likely to take any of those pitchers I rank in round three.
I would probably take who I actually took here, like a Matt Olson over them.
Kind of depends on my team's coming together.
By the way, like this round ends Matt Olson, Bryce Hurst.
Harper, Rafael Devers, and, you know, all three first basemen, Devers doesn't qualify at
third base anymore.
I have those three back to back to back in my own ranking.
Like, to me, there is basically no way to differentiate between those three Olson Harper
and Devers in terms of, I mean, what categories they're going to help you in, what kind of
upside they have what kind of downside risk there is with them like they are as that trifecta at first base is as close as i think i've ever seen uh at any infield
position and by the way i actually rank pete alonzo just two spots ahead of that trio so it's almost four in a row
and by the way freddie freeman is just two three spots behind that trio so it's like this cluster of five first basemen
that are more or less equivalent.
So, like, the time to get a first basement is mid-round three to mid-round four.
And, yeah, just, like, pencil that into your thinking.
Like, if you want to pass up Vladimir Guerrero at the end of round one, where he was taken,
actually, it was early round two.
But that's all the more reason not to take him that early.
If you want to pass up Nick Kurtz and not take on that risk of a sophomore slump,
like just understand that a three-four turn, there's going to be a lot of first-base options
available. That might not really be any worse than Guerrero and Kurtz.
All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we will run through round four.
We'll talk about some surprising picks and recap our teams. We'll do all that right after this.
Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today, recapping our first mock draft for 2026. And we are into round
four, where we saw Blake Snell, Manny Machado, go to Chris, Bryce to rank to Scott, Chris Sale,
Hunter Brown and Max
Freed. Blake Snell
drafted as the SP7.
What do you guys think about that?
I think you people are crazy
about Blake Snow.
I just like
this is too early
and he's
his ADP is 22
picks later than this.
I still think that's too early.
For all we crap on
guys who get hurt a lot,
Blake Snow just seems
to like skate past that
criticism in a lot of ways, even though he is also a headache. I don't even want to say that he's
inconsistent because the final numbers end up being very good. But we do this every year.
You know what the Blake Snell experience is like. And look, maybe everyone who's taking him is
just well aware that they can ride that ride and live with it. But I've seen how all of you play
fantasy baseball.
I know Blake Snell's going to give you a headache.
Why take that on in the fourth round?
But Chris, you're usually the one who doesn't crap on the injury prone players.
If you're acknowledging that Blake Snell's final numbers, other than the innings total,
are consistently great.
I get why?
So like I, he went seventh among starting pitchers here, Frank.
That's too early.
I have him 13th.
But I, you don't even have.
have them in your top 20, right, Chris?
Let me pull it up.
I think he's around 20.
I don't really see a lot more risk to taking Snell than Jacob de Crom.
He managed to stay reasonably healthy, finally, for the first time in like six years, five years.
Yeah.
You know, there comes a point where you want ACE production to any degree.
you can get it.
Because, you know, once you get beyond that top 13, 14, 15 in the rankings, then, you know,
I don't think anybody's looking at Jesus Lazzardo or Freddie Peralta as an ace,
really, from a fantasy perspective.
So I would say Blake Snell is a very good bet to give you ace-like strikeout rates.
He's just about one of the best in baseball there.
And I think he's a very good bet to give you an ace-like run prevention mark.
Mini ERA.
Blake's Melkisnell.
Tends to be kind of harmful in WIP.
Actually, for his career, he has exactly two seasons with a whip below 1-1-9.
That's not very good.
There are the two seasons he won Salyong.
They're the only two seasons.
Right, but I'm just saying how good of a bet.
is Blake Snell for anything except ERA.
Well, again, back to my point, how good of a bet is any of the pitchers taken 16 and beyond?
You know, they all have their limitations.
Sure.
The back half of round four, we saw Jared Duran, Brian Wu, went to me.
Cody Bellinger, Wyatt Langford, Freddie Freeman, Jackson, Merrill.
So I did not plan to start my draft with three hitters,
but once the top three pitchers were off the board,
they didn't make it to me in round two.
I wasn't going to be the first pitcher.
I wasn't going to take the SP4 in the middle of round two.
I wasn't going to do it in the middle of round three either.
I'll wait for someone else to kind of start that snowball,
and then I'll jump into the middle of that tier,
and that's how I wound up with Brian Wu here in round four,
and I'm totally fine with the way that that worked out.
Jared Duran at pick 43, Jackson Merrill at 48.
Is that enough of a discount, do you guys think, after the down seasons there for Duran and Jackson Merrill?
Well, I know I'm out on a limb on Merrill in a bad way.
Like, I've ranked Jackson Merrill, so there's no way I'm going to draft him.
So maybe I am not the proper person to ask about him.
He went 48th here.
His ADP is 61.
So I think even from just even comparing it to the consensus, this is too early for Jackson Merrill.
I personally have him 88th.
So, yeah, I'm not going to get Jackson Merrill.
I'm certainly not going to get him at 48.
Yeah.
I think I'll rank him top 50.
So it's probably okay.
But I certainly don't think it's a slam dunk as the last pick of the fourth round.
But if he had made it to me with my next pick, I would have been thrilled to get him.
because I do think there's a lot of batting average upside.
I have some questions about the stolen bases after he stole, what, one last year?
One, yeah.
But I mostly give him, I think Jackson Merrill is a 290 hitter.
I feel pretty confident in that.
I think there's going to be power.
It's just, can he be a 290 hitter with 25 homers and 15 steals?
I think he's physically capable of it.
I just don't know how much of a priority that's going to be.
And I think the disparity, the reason why I'm so much lower on Merrill than the consensus is I am making a concerted effort to kind of reemphasize actual production, not over theoretical production, over some of the underlying stat cast numbers that we've given so much credit to in recent years.
Except for Poldare.
To at least, I mean, that's a, that.
That's a data point.
They're all relevant data points is what I'm saying.
But I am not just going to ignore actual production for the sake of the statcast production
because I think, A, that's zigging while everyone else is zagging because most people are
just ranking purely on the underlying stack cast data and kind of ignoring top line production.
That's just where the industry is these days.
And B, I think it's burned us a lot doing that.
So I'm not, it still matters.
I'm not saying the stack cast stuff doesn't matter.
Pull air rate certainly matters.
But there is going to be, I am going to put a little more emphasis this year on seeing
is believing.
Sure.
And particularly for somebody like Merrill who has so little track record.
I just, I think he could hit 290 and it wouldn't be a surprise.
But I am not going to draft him expect him.
expecting
290
and that's why
I haven't ranked
where I rank him
I will say
I don't think
Jaron Duran
should go ahead
of Jackson Merrill ever
and in a large part
they're sort of
similar players
Duran obviously
less of a hitter
more of a base
stealer
don't know where he's
going to be playing
but he should be playing
every day
I'd be very surprised
if he wasn't
although
I have my concerns
about whether
Jaron Duran
actually is an
everyday player
with his stats
against
It's like a 600 OPS for his career, but Jaron is going to be 29.
And I think Jackson Merrill's 22.
See, I am I am expecting.
I think Merrill has more batting average upside.
He has more power upside.
I don't think he has a ton more power upside.
And Steele's, I am thinking Duran is at worst a B plus and steals, probably an A minus.
And Merrill might be an F.
Duran probably doubles up what Merrill does.
I mean, he had 23 or 24 more this year.
So, yeah, there was a big gap between those two.
So I'm actually putting Duran quite a bit ahead of Merrill.
But I think we'll see a lot of drafts.
And even the early ADP reflexes where those guys go very similar ranges.
They were both like second, third round picks last year.
They disappointed.
I think they're both kind of be, they'll be, you know,
maybe fourth or fifth round picks this upcoming season with Duran.
and Jackson Merrill.
Last name I'll mention here, it is odd seeing Freddie Freeman at the end of the fourth
round, but I think it does make sense.
He's entering his age 36 season.
This is also the lowest Freeman's ADP has been since 2016, which is pretty crazy to think
about there with one of the best to ever do it.
Let's quickly run through some news and notes, and then we'll get back into this mock draft
that we did, and the Sy Young Award winners were announced.
No surprises here.
Terrick Scouble, in the American League.
That's back to back for Scoobel, the best pitcher in baseball.
And Paul Skeen's unanimous winner in the NL starts his career, rookie of the year, and
Siam.
Pretty good.
Pretty good way to do it.
Sub to ERA both times.
We saw, we saw Scoobel.
He was at one of the Mesa Solar Sox, I think, games.
He was rooting on his hopefully future teammate, Kevin McGonigal.
He had a couple of maybe probably not future teammates out there, at least McGonigle might be a future teammate.
I think it's like Max Anderson, I think, was in the lineup in that game as well.
I think it's pretty unlikely him and Terrick Schuble ever play with each other at least in Detroit.
But yeah, he was out there.
Yeah, he was showing some support.
It is that time of the baseball calendar.
Scott Boris was at the GM meeting speaking in Boris Isms.
Did you guys have a favorite that you saw today?
I have to say I finally I don't think I had ever seen a video of him doing this
How does he remember all of him? I
I couldn't watch it
It was like one of the most painfully awkward things I've ever said it was like a I think you should leave skin
Watching him try to get through this kind of was it works on the page. I guess although I
I'm kind of over it as well everyone's like oh
That's like he's just like he's not saying anything you know, I
Oh, he said a lot of peas.
Like, what is this pee for Pandetta?
I don't, I don't know that you remember that movie.
Pretty good movie.
I'm kind of, I'm kind of over this thing is what I'm saying.
I'm kind of like, like, this is like a 65 year old man like, like memorizing bad pun monologues.
And it was just watching.
How long has he been doing it like 20 years?
Yeah, something like that.
I would think by year three it would be played out.
Yeah, I don't like this keeps going back to the well.
Are the winter meetings really this boring?
Like is that like that this is the only exciting or interesting thing happening out there?
Why is this such a big deal? I don't get it.
So I do just have to read the Pete Alonzo one.
It was my favorite of the day.
There's no doubt Pete's pursuers are primed to pay the power Piper.
Pete picked a perfect period to play preeminently at a primary position.
A playoff parched plethora will pounce to participate in the polar plunge.
I like that's just bad.
It's like, I'm, that, that's just like, but it reminds me of, it's kind of, uh, it reminds me of John Sterling, right?
Like, it's so bad that it's good.
I don't know.
Is that John Sterling, though?
No, you know, John, John Sterling, you said the home run calls and John Carlo, a little period of
Polo.
But is that the thought that it's good?
Is that, yes, I think that's the.
That's my take on it.
Pete picked a perfect period to play preeminently at a primary position.
He played the same position he always plays.
That means nothing.
Like, what first base is a primary position?
Like, what the, it's like the ninth most important defensive position in baseball.
It's incredibly easy.
He's picking something.
He was playing off the tongue twister, you know.
But that's the problem is he's forcing himself into these.
Yeah.
Come on.
Nonsensical, like the, the, like, the,
Scott Boris.
Nobody wants a Brexit one.
Oh my gosh.
That.
He's trying too hard.
He's trying too hard.
The Alex Breggman ones, it was just, it was all coffee related because it was all like Dunkin' Donuts.
He just played in Beantown and.
It was just, wow.
It was, uh, not a fan.
Not a fan.
It was something.
By the way, Chris, I did pull this up for you.
John Carlo.
Non C. Poe-Stopalo.
I mean, it's, it's a classic.
Japanese starting pitcher Tatsuya Imi will be posted on November 19th.
So he will have 45 days to, uh, sign once he is posted.
And we mentioned yesterday, there was a lot of, um, excitement about him at first pitch,
Arizona.
Eno Saris mentioned, uh, he would rank as a top third.
starting pitcher for him heading into fantasy.
So definitely a name we need to learn there, Tatsuya Imi.
Lance Brousdowski had a great video breaking him down a couple, maybe a week or two ago.
That's worth checking out as well.
Yeah.
Other updates from the GM meetings, Yordon Alvarez has begun jogging at roughly 70% after
his season ended with a nasty left ankle sprain.
Josh Hader has thrown off a mound three times after his season ended with a left shoulder
strain.
Esoc Paredes is about 65% recovered from his hamstring injury.
They said he should be 80 to 90% by the start of spring, hopefully 100% by opening
day.
I didn't love reading that for Isok Paredes.
You start turning the math on it because like that injury was in like late July, right?
Like late June maybe?
But it was a nasty.
Yeah, it was like a hamstring tear that he borderline needed surgery for.
And then they rushed him back to play the final weekend of the season, the final week
of the season.
So it's not a little concerning.
Yeah, something to pay attention to there.
Byron Buxton could be open to waving his no trade clause for certain teams if the twins continue to sell off players.
The Braves will have a better idea in January about whether Sean Murphy will be ready for opening day or not.
Brian Cashman views Ben Rice as having an everyday role next season.
Let's go.
It didn't seem like something we needed confirmation of.
Yeah, but just, you know, maybe he might sit against lefties or something.
He hadn't played every day yet.
Just, I, I was, that was my biggest hesitation with Big Rice is would the Yankees entrust them with a true everyday role.
And so I, I am encouraged to hear this from Brian Cashman.
Scott, you are not the only one who loves Rice, Rice, Rice, Baby, because the early ADP is 75.
So people are very excited.
And after hearing this from Cashman, I think it's only going to go up.
I think he might end up being like the number two or three catcher by the time.
Peking too early.
I don't get too early.
I have him 84, so.
I don't think he'll pass William Contreras,
but I could see him getting up to three
and being ahead of Hunter Goodman
and Shay Langley or someone like that.
Last news item here, Philly's outfield prospect,
Justin Crawford has a strong chance
to open the season in the majors.
Of course, son of former major leaguer Carl Crawford,
have to, of course, let you know that.
Sorry, Carl.
The great Carl Crawford.
The great Carl Crawford.
Turning 22 in January,
a first round pick in 2020.
Justin Crawford just hit 334 in the minors with 88 runs scored, 46 steals, only seven homers.
He actually hits the ball harder than you would expect for a quote unquote speedster,
but it also comes with a 60% ground ball rate.
So I actually think the hit tool is pretty legit here.
I don't know that he'll be able to hit for really much power at all,
but just in terms of hitting the ball hard, ground ball is getting through, line drives, and a bunch of steals.
Yeah, I think that's all possible for Justin Crawford.
I like them. I do.
I think the league allows for this type of player a little more again.
Honestly, similar to Carl Crawford.
Now, Carl Crawford did develop like 15 to 20 Homer Power eventually.
And as hard as Justin Crawford hits the ball, it's possible he does too.
I mean, it's mostly a launch ankle issue.
But even if he doesn't, as a speedy guy, keeping the ball on the ground,
on going the opposite way with it a bunch.
I mean, we've seen that Chandler Simpson works.
We've seen that Xavier Edwards as a hitter.
He works.
He stopped running so much in his second year,
but he hit well enough.
I think Crawford, Justin Crawford,
could be in a similar mold to both of them
with even some hope,
some hope that they don't have of developing power
because he hits the ball pretty hard.
All right, here we are.
We are going to wrap
up quickly here with going back to the mock draft. I'll leave this up to you because we don't
have time for both. Do you guys want to take a look at interesting players and where they got drafted
and just mention their early ADP or recap our final teams? I'd rather look at interesting
players, I think. Same. Okay. So you're probably wondering where some of these guys got drafted.
I will let you know what pick they went in the early ADP. You guys just let me know which one you
agree with more, where they went in this draft or were the early 80s.
ADP is trending. So Haraldo Perdomo, first name, got to mention. He went at pick 50 in this
draft. The early ADP is 81.5. I have him higher than 50th either. Actually, so I, uh, yeah,
I agree with where he went in this mock. Chris? I'm, I'm going to be closer to where he went in this
than where his ADP is. Okay. So you're both, you guys are closer to 50. I will be closer to
ADP, I think, on Geraldo Perdomo. Byron Buckson went at pick 57. The early ADP is 72.
2.7. What do you think on Buxson?
I know Scott likes
him a lot. I think
both are probably too early.
I have him 47, so
I got to agree with the
57 where he went in this draft.
Roman Anthony
went at pick
68. His early
ADP is 53.
I agree with where he went in this draft. I have him
73. So,
all three.
I agree with where he went in this draft rather than ADP.
In this case, it's because I have Anthony lower.
Again, I just want, I just want, I want a little more proof that he's ready to take that next step.
It wouldn't surprise me at all.
I mean, he clearly has the upside, hits the ball very hard, good plate discipline,
but has some contact issues and has some launch angle issues.
And I'll play it a little more cautiously.
I think he'll rank around 55 for me.
That sounds right.
So I think the ADP is probably closer.
I want to have exposure to Roman Anthony next year.
But I like what you're saying, Scott.
I totally get it with not wanting to put too much on early round players who haven't really proven it so far.
This is about where James Wood's ADP was last season.
And Roman Anthony is a, just in terms of prospect status and projectability, I guess a somewhat similar player.
ADP is?
The ADP is similar to where James Wood was going last year.
Because that paid off.
I mean, it paid off for Wood, but Wood had speed.
Although, Anthony ended up not really stealing a lot of...
How many did it?
Wasn't it only like 12 or 14?
Yeah, I think he got to around 15 or something like that.
Yeah.
But I think at the broader point, his ADP was probably around 50 last year,
and I think he finished as a top 50 players.
So, yeah, it worked out.
It was, but I think there's, I think there are better alternatives.
Maybe this year, I don't know.
I'd have to, I'd have to compare.
Yep.
George Springer went up pick 74.
He was the 21st outfielder off the board.
His early ADP is 109, so 74 or 109.
I think the ADP's too low here.
I think I'll rank him probably somewhere between 74 and 109,
but I think the ADP is definitely too low.
Yeah, I mean, I have him higher definitely than ADP,
also higher than he went in this draft.
So I don't know, I wonder who people are taking instead,
because that was the issue I had
ranking George Springer higher than I felt comfortable with,
but it's like, am I really going to pass him up for this guy?
It's not that exciting.
The guys going ahead of him are Jose Altuve,
who has second base eligibility.
Michael Harris.
Definitely not.
Tyler Soderstrom, who has first base eligibility,
but you're probably going to play him in the outfield.
Sodstrom, really?
A 20-homer 270-hitting guy?
25-Hovers.
Say a Suzuki.
and Randy a Roserena.
But even like he's, like, I'm not sure I'd rather have Cody Bellinger than George Springer either.
And there's like a 30-pick difference between them.
I would much rather have George Springer than O'Neill Cruz, who is about 35 spots ahead of George Springer right now.
Like, I cannot believe O'Neill Cruz's price is still as high as it is.
He's 76.
Those players you listed off all have clear limitations to their upside.
And okay, George Springer does too.
He was a top 10 hitter just now, though.
But right, exactly.
Like, he is, he's done, he just did better than I think any of those guys are capable of.
So even if he regresses to normal George Springer, not 2024, George Springer when it looked like he was under decline.
Of course, that's within the realm of possibility, but that's not my expectation for him.
If he's just normal George Springer, he's worth more than, he's worth at least as much as those guys.
And there's the chance he gives you more.
And then like the next two after him are Tiaska Hernandez and Andy Pahez.
So like, yeah, much rather have more George Springer than those two guys too.
I'll probably rank him closer to 100.
But within the outfield rankings, I think what you guys are saying makes sense.
I think he's probably closer to like a top 15 guy,
but maybe that just means I'm going to rank outfielders a little bit lower overall heading into next season.
We, I mentioned Ben Rice.
He went to pick 77 in this draft.
To me, that was fun.
The fifth catcher off the board, the early ADP is 76.
So it's we were kind of right on right on there with Ben Rice.
Will you guys do it?
Will you guys use a top 75 pick on Ben Rice?
Like I said, I have an 80.
84th.
So I'm right about there.
I want to take much for me to get him into the top 75.
I just don't think it makes much sense to jump the market on any catchers this year.
With how, with how deep the position is.
Like someone's going to fall.
I got Augustine Ramirez with the 11th pick of the 11th round that will never happen again that was a fluke of this draft not having rankings and just I think people forgot about him but like Drake Baldwin went in the 12th Samuel Bessiah went in the 14th I just I think that Yvonne Herrera I know he doesn't have catcher eligibility to open the season but he won the 19th to Scott I just think it's not going to make sense to jump ADP on any catcher I think you should just
if you want to take a catcher,
figure out what range you want to take a catcher in
and whichever one is left is what I'd say.
Here's the thing, though, because I get what you're saying.
I get it.
And I have the same thought as I was putting together in my top 600.
But it's almost like, and I know this sounds weird,
that thought is almost like discrediting Ben Rice
for having catcher eligibility because, oh, catcher's so deep.
Like if I just was.
ranking Ben Rice as a first basement, which is probably the position he's actually going to play.
And we're hearing now probably full time.
So that's my biggest concern for him.
Addressed.
If I'm just ranking him as a first baseman, 75th seems totally appropriate.
I mean, relative to, like, that's the same spot.
It's a little earlier than Pasquantino.
I might prefer Pasquantino to Rice, but it's the same general vicinity.
And then you'd like the catcher eligibility is a nice bonus.
What we would normally think of is a huge bonus.
It's just not quite as big this year
because of how deep the position is.
What about here?
Back to back, Braves pitchers,
and they're both named Spencer.
So Strider at pick 79,
Schwellenbach at pick 95.
The ADP for Strider is 87.
The ADP for Schwellenbach is 82.
The Strider one just completely blows me away
because towards the end of the season,
we were talking about him like,
oh, will he even be drafted as a top 36?
starting pitcher.
He's SP 19 early on, which, man, people are just fully expecting him to bounce back.
Well, not to what he was, but...
That might be an NFBC thing because they're aware of how high the strikeout upside
theoretically is.
And you chase the theoretical outcome a lot more in an FBC because you're competing
against a lot more teams.
And I think especially at this point in the calendar, it makes more sense to...
Because there's no safety at this point.
anything can happen in the next five months.
Both of these are surprising to me, though,
that they were drafted back to back.
To me, Schwellenbach is too low,
and Strider is too high.
I agree.
Schwellenbach's actually my number 15 SP.
So I have 20 spots earlier than this.
And he's not worry-free.
He's coming back from an elbow fracture
that was a usage-based injury.
That's always concerning.
he might that was following a conscious effort for to to chase velocity and he might need to back off that a little bit.
But we already know what Schwellenbach looks like with a little less velocity because it was his rookie season.
Yeah.
And it was still, it was still getting him drafted as a top 20 starting pitcher, I believe.
So I am fine ranking him 15th and, okay, there's a little more injury risk.
But you know what?
I have Jacob de Grom ranked 14th.
I have Blake Snow ranked 13th.
Like that's just part of the part.
of the deal with starting pitchers once you get past the real workhorses.
And Strider, it's just he went from having one of the best, maybe the best fastball and baseball,
a pitch that he had to throw 60% of the time to having a fastball that was a legitimate problem for him last season.
It was a bad pitch.
It was below average whiff rates, some of the worst results on balls and play.
I'm not saying he can never get back to that, but there was...
We need evidence, right?
There was no sign.
Like, I don't know, there was like one, 12 or 14 strikeout game for Strider, right?
But there was no, like, there was no forward momentum that you could point to, really.
Like, he had a 279 ERA in September across five starts.
That was 26 strikeouts to 13 walks and 29 innings of work.
And that was after a 10 ERA.
in August.
I'm rooting for it, but man, I don't think he's a top 100 pick.
There was a seven-start stretch in the middle of the season where he looked like,
I don't know exactly how, I don't know how the fastball was playing specifically,
but the results were vintage strider.
He had the two double-digit strikeout games and a bunch of like eight strikeout games.
Yeah, he had 12.4K per nine during that seven-star stretch, a two-finding.
53 R.A. at 246 FIPP.
So, like, he was looking like he was back on track, and then things really unraveled from there.
And he never, he didn't look dominant again the rest of the season.
He seems aware of the issue.
He's spent some time at a facility in Atlanta, like a pitching lab, trying to regain that old fastball shape.
I think he could have more success with that, dedicating himself to that in the offseason,
rather than trying to address it in season.
And I do think if he goes to work a little more on his curveball
and or change up and broadens his arsenal some,
it would take the pressure off the fastball.
Like I still think there are ways Strider could pull this together.
But I got to see some proof that it's happening
before I invest in him as a top 20 SP,
especially seeing how deep the position is.
And you look at the ADP and you've got Hayes-Lisardo going about five picks after him.
I think it's a similar upside downside case there.
Yuri Perez obviously has a ton of upside.
Cal Braddish has ace upside.
Nolan McLean, obviously.
I think everybody loves him.
Yes, Spencer Strider, if he can get back to 2023 and 2020, no, just 2023 and 2022.
Could be a huge value there, but there are plenty of really talented pitchers going a lot later than him who weren't among the worst pitchers in baseball last.
season. Yeah. Zach Wheeler, I've got to mention. I mean, he's the biggest wild card in fantasy right now. He
had thoracic outlet decompression surgery. We don't know if he's going to be ready for opening day.
We don't know what he's going to look like once he comes back. He went up pick 99 as the SP 24. His early
ADP is 132. And listen to this range. A high pick of 34, a low pick of 34, so people don't know.
I mean, it's very early in the process, but people have no idea what to make.
of Zach Wheeler and I don't blame them.
I think we got that quote from Dave Dombrowski that they're hoping he can be ready for opening
day and I think people are going to get excited about that.
But it's not just a question of whether Zach Wheeler will pitch a full season.
It's just will he be good.
Now, I did find a study that showed that results from Therastic Outlet Syndrome are not as bad as we tend to think.
certainly not for addressing a blood vessel
the problem is
I think the sample that they used for this study
was like 29 pitchers total
which is a very small sample to begin with
only I think three of them
were the type of surgery that Zach Wheeler had
so it's just there's very little to go on
there are some real success stories
I think Miles Michaelis
no Merrill Kelly
one of those guys
I always get those two guys
I know they're different now
but when they first arrived, they were around the same type of pitcher.
And one of them had thoracic acid out syndrome surgery.
There are positives, but I don't know, 100 is probably fair for Wheeler.
But once you start pushing it up higher than that, again, it just, I think it's not accounting for enough downside.
I will quickly mention the hype pitchers and where they went in this draft.
And then also the ADP, they are almost all likely to go higher than where they went in this draft.
People were just sleeping on them.
Yeah, and it's reflected in the ADP.
So you'll see that here.
Chase Burns went to pick 129.
His early ADP is 128.
That one was actually pretty spot on.
Nolan McLean went to pick 164.
His early ADP is 116, 116.
116.
Cam Schlitler at pick 169.
The ADP is 130.
Emmichian went at pick 170.
The ADP 146.
Jacob Miziarowski at 182.
The ADP is 129.
Trey is Savage at 184.
The ADP is 155.
That's going to continue skyrocketing, I think.
Bubba Chandler went to pick 193.
The ADP is 162.
So I think those guys are much more likely to be in that kind of 120 to 160 range
like they are right now and based on early ADP.
All right, that was our first mock draft.
Again, you can check out the results, all of them on
the website. I will put those links in the description.
We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning in.
Tough Fantasy Baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
And we will be back again next week.
Bye-bye.
Paramount Podcasts.
