Fantasy Baseball Today - Outfield and Starting Pitcher Tiers! Brantley back to the Astros! (1/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 21, 2021

Michael Brantley is headed back to the Astros but not without controversy! Before we get to Brantley, Chris gives his thoughts on Springer to the Blue Jays (3:36). .... On to the rest of our news and notes, what do we think about Brantley back in Houston (5:56)? JA Happ signed with the Twins while Jose Quintana landed with the Angels. ... Outfield tiers! Any concerns for the names in the super elite tier (15:08)? ... Bryce Harper vs. Cody Bellinger (18:22). ... In the near elite tier, what happened to Luis Robert in September (22:10)? Is Kyle Tucker overvalued? ... How are we evaluating Randy Arozarena (27:05)?... In the fallback tier, Frank still has hope for Tommy Pham (33:50). ... Why is Alex Kirilloff a sleeper (35:55)? ... Are we irrationally valuing starting pitchers too much in 2021 (38:13)? ... In the super elite tier, why can't Jacob deGrom win games (41:53)? ... How volatile is the elite tier (44:52)? ... What is the case for and against Zach Plesac (50:05)? ... The next best things tier is the point in the draft where you should have at least four starting pitchers (52:52). ... What are Chris' expectations for Sixto Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara (55:08)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santana Forcus for cocked a jag Like Michael Walker Polanco and from Here Welcome to Fantasy Baseball Today on a Kokomo Thursday January 21st

Frank Stanful joined by Scott White And Chris Towers Another big show lined up It feels like I've said that All week long But there are a lot of players to talk about

Within these tiers Specifically today on the show Outfield and starting pitchers It's going to be Fun It's going to be fun A few more signings today including the Blue Jays and their fans getting duped.

So unless you live under a rock, you might have seen on Thursday, on Wednesday when we're recording this, it was announced the Blue Jays signed Michael Brantley to a three-year deal, and I was freaking out because I love Rowdy Tellez. I'm like, no, what's going to happen now? But then it turned out that didn't really happen. And he's going back to the Astros on a two-year contract. So what happened, Scott?

I mean, this is, we're supposed to be professionals. here. What happened? Don't play me. I don't know why you reported that, Scott. I know where the report originated, but I will not, that's fine. I don't know. People, it's, it's the rush to be first, right?

And sometimes that means you're going to be wrong. And so I actually did write something up for CBSSports.com reacting to the news and then had to take it down. It happens sometimes. It happens sometimes. But Brantley's going back

to the Astros, which means for now, at least, you can continue to support Rowdy Telez and his reduced strikeout rate. Yes. I don't think anything really changes for Brantley. There wasn't anyone interesting who was going to step in and take his place. He's had a remarkably stable profile over the past few years. It's still a championship caliber lineup even without George Springer there. So nothing really changes for him.

and we'll see if we'll see if the Blue Jays have anything else in mind. We'll see if they're how committed they are to Tellez in the long run and how trusting they are of to Oscar Hernandez. Because I frankly, I thought that was a part of the moves they were making too is they were kind of signaling like we don't really know what's going to happen with this guy either. So we need to be prepared in case he turns back into a pumpkin. Wow, Scott.

The entire fantasy baseball. industry is marching your way with their pitchforks. How dare you besmirch the name of Tiosker Hernandez. We'll talk about Brantley a little bit more in just a bit, but Scott and I did an emergency podcast two nights ago now when you'll be listening to this. Chris, you were not on that, so I wanted to give you the opportunity to O'Pine on George Springer heading to the Toronto Blue Jays six years, $150 million deal. Someone pointed out, it's pretty interesting. DJ LeMay, who got six years, $90 million. I think he's also two years older, but a very big, very big disparity in the financials

between George Springer and DJ Lemayhew. Any thoughts that you have with Blue Jays, with him joining, Springer joining the Blue Jays, what it means for his value and what it might mean for anyone else's value in their lineup? It makes this a really, really, an even more interesting lineup. And it, you know, gives them, I think,

it was a really interesting lineup with a lot of, question marks. There are a lot of reasons to like Kevin Baccio. There are a lot of reasons to like Bob Bichette, Toscar Hernandez, Vladimir Guerrero, Lordus Gurel, you can go down the list. But who was the most sure thing of that group to be a, you know, really above average, very good major league hitter? Like, we all love Bichette, but he's played, what, 80 games in the majors? Less than that, yep. Lordeus Griel, I think he's really good. He's been doing this for a year and a half, but a year and a half right now is 130 games because it really started in the second half of 2019.

And so, you know, Vladimir Guerrero, again, a lot to like there. So this does provide some stability. It provides some, you know, a proven force at the top of the lineup. And I'm assuming he's going to bat at the top of the line. I think there are some interesting questions about what the ramifications of him joining the team and what that means for the batting order, whether, you know, Cabin Bizio is still going to hit towards the top of the lineup,

whether he's going to move down, and, you know, the knock-on effects from there. But, you know, for the most part, I think it's a good move for everyone. I don't think it's a big, you know, upgrade or downgrade for George Springer. The only thing to keep in mind is he is 31 years old. And injuries have been a problem for him over the course of his career.

You know, it seems like there's something every year with him. And so, So, you know, you just have to keep that mind that might not get better now that he's, you know, going into his age 31 season. Yep, 31 years old for George Springer. Still a premier athlete. The stat cast numbers pop off the page. Top 15 outfielder in head-toe points each of the past two seasons. Top 20 outfielder in Roto in each of the past two seasons as well. I think he's actually undervalued right now with an ADP of 55.7 according to fantasy pros. I think that's probably going to move up a little bit now that people know where he's going to be playing. although we still don't know where the Blue Jays are going to be,

but we know what lineup he's going to be. And so I think that might ease people a little bit and might push him back up the board. All right, back to Michael Brantley. He's still joining a really good lineup. You mentioned this, Scott. He's joining the Houston Astros, and we'll see what they can get out of Yerdon Alvarez,

how healthy he's going to be. But Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuvae, Kyle Tucker, a lot of people excited about. So Michael Brantley goes back to the Astros. still a very solid lineup, career 297 hitter, up over 300 batting average,

three straight seasons. I don't know that there's much more to add, Scott, but I will just point out, ADP right around 150 for Brantley, to me he kind of represents the final player that is a contributor in batting average in Roto or head-toe or head-to-head categories league.

So if you're looking at that in the middle part of the draft, he kind of represents that Cliff, unless you want like David Fletcher, but I have a sure thing. Yeah, I still think he's going to be a very good contributor in that category. Right. Well, I guess one of

the last proven contributors in that category who isn't going to isn't going to sink you in too much else. He's not a big power hitter, but, you know, very good chance he hits 20 home runs still over a full season. He is a guy who

has a reputation for being a better points league player than Roto League player. So the ADP would probably be higher if we were talking specifically points leagues doesn't strike out much. That's really what makes the difference there. But he is a batting average standout and

definitely a must start type player regardless of the format. Jayhap went to the Minnesota Twins. He signed a one-year deal with the Twins. Last year with the Yankees 3.47 ERA for Hab 105 whip.

It feels like he was bad. Maybe I'm just remembering the year before. It feels like he was much worse than this, but he actually was pretty good. Change up his pitch mix a little bit. Use his four seamer less than he had in the past. The two seamer was up. It helped his slider play.

Fangraphs metrics had him. 3.28. Expected ERA on Stackass. So that's pretty damn good. Chris, anything to see here with a 414 ADP for J.HAP. I mean, he's, he's had an ERA of 3, 6, 5 or below in, let's see, 2, 3, 4, 5 of the last 6 seasons. And nobody's ever happy to have him on their fantasy team and nobody ever wants to draft him.

And, you know, he is 33 years old, 38 years old, excuse me. And so at some point, maybe the magic trick runs out. But he is the kind of guy who, you know, if you have him on the back end of your rotation, he's usually pretty helpful. He's not a huge difference maker. You're not going to miss him if you miss out on him. But with the last pick in your draft, if you need an arm, you could do worse. Especially in those deeper leagues.

Mix Roto, 15 teamers, AL only. I think still a name to pay attention to. He'll be pitching in the American League Central, which I don't think will hurt J.Hap either. I will just point out this is good news for one. Tim Anderson. he apparently liked the tweet that Ken Rosenthal sent out

announcing the J-Hap signing. Tim Anderson is 9 for 16 with two home runs and a triple lifetime against J-Hap. So it's pretty messed up but there you go. If you needed another reason

to draft Tim Anderson. Did somebody like find that and point that out? Yeah. So show up on your Twitter feed. I was searching J-Hap on Twitter to see what people were saying about him. And a bunch of people were just pointing out that Tim Anderson liked it. And there were people that explained why.

So I thought that was pretty funny. Another less than exciting signing, Jose Cantana signs a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Scott, what happened to Jose Cantana, man? 3.51 ERA and 169 starts with the White Sox. A 4.24 ERA and 78 starts with the Chicago Cubs. Maybe he's just getting old. I don't know. Well, what happened to him, I think, was the world changed around him

because you'll notice his home run rate went up about the time home runs started going up. And that was it. There wasn't, he's not an overpowering enough pitcher to really navigate that. He's still, you know, a decent innings eater who isn't horrible at strikeouts, but you're talking about a streamer type in fantasy these days. he used to be a guy who outperformed his peripherals pretty much every season and he's no longer that guy and so you know in in two of the four

two of the three full seasons since going to the Cubs you know he's been at least half a run worse than his peripheral so I think that's uh that that's kind of indicative of what Scott was saying he just gets hit a little bit too hard can we gave up a Loy Jimenez Dylan C's for him which maybe Dylan C's turns into nothing but you know what I think

their management and fans would still say they would do it well was he part of the World Series team no I think he was the year out no 2017 was the World Series right sounds like something we should know I can't keep that stuff in my head man I'm pretty sure that was not he was not part of the World Series

they won in 2016 oh so that was the one where they gave up labor Torres for half a season of her oldest Chapman. Yeah. Correct. Yeah. So Jose Katana joined the team in 2017. All right, so forget what I was about to say. I was going to say, yeah, fans will do it time and time again because he helped them win a World Series.

But it turned out, Jose Cantana did not help the Cubs win a World Series. Before we hit our outfield tiers, I just want to let everyone know. Well, you probably know by now if you like any type of sports. But the Chiefs and the Bills are facing off this weekend in the AFC Conference Championship, and you can watch that on CBS and CBS All Access 6.40 p.m. Eastern Time. Hopefully Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Should be a really fun one. Of course, two high octane offenses between the Chiefs and the Bills. And continue to send in your questions. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. If we don't get to them here on the podcast, I answer a lot of them myself. So continue to send

those in. If you enjoy the podcast, feel free to drop a five-star Apple podcast rating and leave a question in the review. We'll answer those as well. Big thanks to everybody who has already done so. Outfield tiers. The outfield position in general. Of course, as usual, you can find all of Scott's tiers on the website. CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball should pop up. They're all out there now. They're all up. They're all. You can find them all. Available. It'll take you eight clicks, but you can find him. On the interwebs. Scott, I would say just judging the outfield position, like shortstop, I think this is up there as one of the best positions for a multitude of reasons.

It's extremely deep. It's filled with elite talent up at the top. I feel like the middle parts of the position doesn't really, like it doesn't dull out or anything. I think it's just a really, really strong position throughout. Maybe you feel differently because you're making a face. I'm going to go ahead and sort of disagree with you there. Okay.

I think it, look, there are, five players that are for sure going in the first round, five outfielders. And, you know, four of the first five picks might be outfielders. So it's, there are some big studs at the top, kind of like a shortstop. And outfield is never a thin position. I mean, just by virtue of having three times as many players as any other position, there's always going to be talent to be had in the outfield. But I do think once you get past those super studs, there isn't a lot worth reaching for here. It's a position where we did,

when we did our most recent roto mock draft, I pointed out probably 10 rounds in that I didn't have an outfielder yet, and then people started chiming in that they only had one. You know, like nobody had an outfielder yet except for maybe a couple guys at that point, just because there weren't that many worth drafting through that point in the draft,

even though it was a league where. everybody needed five outfielders. It's a position that's, you're more likely to load up on in the middle to late stages of the draft than in like the round four to eight range, I guess. Okay. So extremely top,

it is top heavy. Maybe doles out a little bit there in the middle, but I think your point about it just being deep in general. Like, I'm doing a 15 team roto draft right now, and I think my first outfielder was Conforto, and I got them in the fifth round. And I, you know, I was perfectly fine with that. I think I grabbed,

five outfielders between rounds five and 15 or something and I was perfectly fine with how it turned out so I do think there are a lot of names that you could attack in that range but let's start up at the top with the super elite tier which includes Ronald de Cunia Mike Trout, Muki Betts, Juan Soto

and Christian Yellich. We still have Christian Yelich here in the super elite tier. All of these players will be gone in the first round of 12 team leagues or deeper I guess if you're playing a 10 team or there's a chance Christian Yelich will not be drafted in the first round.

And a fun fact. Mike Trout and Mooky Betts are the only two hitters who average over four fantasy points in each of the past three seasons. So they are... Pretty good. They are format proof.

You can draft Mooky Betts or Mike Trout in either format within the first five picks. Although some people have been fading him more so in Rota. I want to do a quick Wuriometer just on this top group

because I don't really think there's much to add, but I'll just ask you guys. guys. Scott, for Ronald de Cunia, Worryometer on the strikeouts, which we saw go up to right around 29% in the shortened season. That was a career high for Ronald Cunia. Woreometer 1 to 10 on Acuna strikeouts.

One. One. I mean, it was a short season, and it was a season where he had, I'm pretty sure, a career high in point per game average. They walk 19% of the time. Yeah, okay. So the walks went way up too. Yeah, I just think it's a non-issue at this point.

Yep, I would agree. His 11.5% swinging strike rate is right in line with his career mark. So I would expect the strikeout rate to come down to his career, you know, 25, 26, I would expect, probably more so that range for Ronald Cunia. We'll just wrap up here. Chris, Christian Yelich, everything. I don't know. It's probably like a six for most people and a three for me. It's better than a one.

Everyone else I've asked about what has been a one. Yeah, the biggest, I mean, this is a pretty dumb exercise. The elite of the elites in not just the outfield position, but really in fantasy baseball. You know, I have Christian knowledge, I think 11th or 10th in my overall rankings. Seventh, sorry. So, yeah, he's never had that issue with contact before. It was a short, weird season. The Burr's, you know, some of the Burr's players talked about how that never felt like they got ready for the season.

I'm willing to chalk that up to you know just a bad year and I'm really not concerned about it at all. Mookie Betts, I couldn't really find something to be worried about. I guess the biggest thing would be is if his steals kind of dropped back off to the level that they were two years ago

but I mean, even then he's still 16 bases in 2019 with the Red Sox across 150 games. So Mookie Betts might be the safest of all of them so I'm not, I'm just not worried about him at all. Some fun with numbers,

I'll just quickly let you guys know. Acuna's last 162 games. This is hilarious. It is 47 home runs, 150 runs scored, 43 steals. So he has averaged almost a run scored per game over his last 162 games.

That is like... Unbelievable. Yeah, that's, I know, early, like mid-90s Barry Bonds. It's insane. The elite tier, includes two names, Cody Bellinger and Bryce Harper, who are going about four picks apart in ADP,

Bellinger with an ADP of 14 on the dot. Bryce Harper at 18.3. Scott, which would you prefer between the two? Bellinger for Harper. Bellinger, especially since he's first base eligible, and he still has the ceiling of the top five player. He just has a lot of weird stuff going on that I think makes him worth approaching with caution.

last spring he talked about adjusting his swing for some reason coming off an MVP season he was going to adjust his swing, okay? And then he had a bad year. Interestingly, the biggest stride he made in that MVP 2019 season reducing the strikeouts, a great reduction in strikeout rate, as a matter of fact, that actually held. But the stats overall were not so great, certainly not what we were looking for. He had a few home runs in the postseason, but overall the postseason line wasn't that great. And in the postseason,

he dislocated his shoulder and needed surgery. So now he's coming back from shoulder surgery too. And, yeah, I just think... When I first put together my rankings, I had him going back to back with Yelich at the end of round one. But as I've drafted, I've found it easier to... Easier and easier to bypass him, and now I see him as more like a mid-second rounder,

which is about where Bryce Harper goes. Yes, Scott, let the hate flow through you on Cody Ballinger. Chris, I can't really, I shouldn't make Star Wars references. Who am I? Like, I don't even, I'm such a fraud right now. This is, why did I do that? It gives you, use your anger. It gives you focus.

See, it's a little bit more legitimate when it comes from Chris, from Chris's mouth rather than mine. I do love the I have the higher ground addict and that's probably one of my favorites but I love that scene. It's a great scene. It's a great scene. Chris,

I assume you are in the Bellinger over Harper camp as well considering I think it was before we started maybe after we started. You mentioned you're really high on Bellinger. Yeah, I have him 11th overall and I have Harper 16th

so it's not a huge gap. But yeah, I do the upside with Bellinger gives him just a little bit of an edge. I am in the camp of Harper over Bellinger. I don't mind being on an island. I was on a bunch of islands last year. The reasoning for me, Harper is still just 28 years old.

I think people might kind of view him as older than he actually is. And Harper has actually been better than Bellinger in two of the past three years in both Roto and in head-to-head fantasy points per game. And I think most people's argument will be that Bellinger's upside is higher because he finishes the fifth overall player in 2019, of course, and he won the National League MVP. But it was a long time ago.

Harper in 2015 also won the National League MVP. He finishes the sixth overall player in Roto that year. There's just a few things going on with Bellinger that worry me. It's struggles against lefties each of the past two of the past three years. Harper, great against lefties in 2020, 966 OPS, 827 OPS for his career. So I don't worry about the splits for Harper. And the stat cast numbers, Scott, I know you've pointed to.

out many times. They were fantastic for Harper. They were... His stack-ass numbers were better in 2020, short in season, than they were in his MVP year. So do with that what you will.

He hit 268. His expected batting average was 307. Cut those strikeouts back down. I'm a fan of Harper over Bellinger, but you're splitting hairs there. The near elite tier includes Whitmerfield, who you should probably use at second base,

Marcel O'Suna, who were waiting to sign, he's currently a free agent. Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, who is lower in points leagues, and Starling Marte, who is also lower in points leagues. The ADP for this tier ranges from 35 with Kyle Tucker down to 56 with George Springer, which I feel is relevant

because that's the point of tiers, right? Just kind of wait for the back end of this tier. And if you could get someone like Springer, who I still really like, and we've spoken a lot about the past couple of days, why wouldn't you do it? So I think that's interesting. If you're into conspiracy theories,

Jeff Zimmerman pointed this out, his mining the news article over on Fangraphs, he does a great job, he digs into like all these different kind of athletic and MLB.com articles for tidbits. He found this. Luis Robert made a tough diving catch on September 5th, was hit by a pitch on his tricep in September 6th.

From September 7th on, Luis Robert hit 153. Scott, does that make you want to draft Luis Robert anymore at ADP 39? Not really. There was a lot of reason to be worried about

the direction his stats were going to take even leading up to that magical date. And I just don't know. I mean, certainly if you're looking for a glass half full argument, that's a fine one to make. I'm just not totally convinced by it.

He has... a pretty undisciplined profile that I think is going to hold him back early in his career probably not forever and he still belongs in this tier in Roto leagues even if you're anticipating a 240-ish batting average because of that power speed combo I mean he really proved the speed in his rookie season

that that was going to translate so that's a good thing but I don't he's going to be a liability for batting average I feel pretty confident saying. The ADP for Robert and Eloy Jimenez, his teammate, is 39 on the dot, Scott.

So who would you rather have in Roto? Because I assume it's easier in points league just because Robert's going to strike out so much. So in Roto, who would you rather have, Robert or Elo? As you pointed out, Robert is a tier lower in points league, so they're not even in the same tier in that format. You know, I have Jimenez ranked one

spot ahead. It would depend on how I was doing with stolen bases at that point in the draft. Yeah, that makes sense. It's based on team build, but this is a late third, early fourth round pick. So it comes down to how you personally like to construct your team. If you want to attack steals early, or if you'd rather go with the better batting average bet and better power, I think Eloy is probably the name for you. I do have Eloy ranked higher in both formats myself.

Kyle Tucker, great last year. Chris, I know he was someone that you were interested in and you were kind of leading the charge in wide draft Luis Robert at his ADP when you can get Kyle Tucker so much later. Tucker wound up batting 268 with nine home runs and eight steals with an 837 OPS in 50 games. The ADP for Tucker now is at 35. So a borderline third, fourth round pick. And the argument I would make against him, Chris, is that you can get Trent Grisham 25 picks later, who hit 250 with 10 homers and 10 steals.

The XBA for both was nearly identical and Grisham's expected slugging percentage was actually better than Kyle Tucker's. So what would you say to that? I guess what I would say to that is just Kyle Tucker's prospect pedigree and minor league track record were quite a bit better. You know, you look at what Grisham did and outside of 2019, it was kind of just so-so. 2019 was a significant breakout for him. I believe he changed his approach though in the minors that year. Sure, sure. But, you know, Kyle Tucker didn't need to change his approach to put up similar numbers.

I think Cal Tucker is a better bet for stolen bases. I think he's a better player overall. And maybe that's putting too much into scouting reports from 2018. But given that, you know, we saw Grisham in a very similar sample size in 2019, and he wasn't anywhere near the player that we saw in 2020. So we have 110 game sample size of him in the majors where he's fine. You know, 110 games, 16 home runs, 11 stolen bases. I don't see why we would necessarily put so much more weight on 2020s,

59 games than 2019's 51. It is the more recent one, but it's not like the change in approach happened after 2019. The breakout happened in the minor before that. And so I just think Kyle Tucker is a bit more of a sure thing. The next best best things to your features Charlie Blackman, Trent Grisham, Nick Castellanos, Kevin Bigio, Brendan Lauer, Dominic Smith, Randy Orozarena, a lot of names here, so stick with me. Will Myers,

Toscar Hernandez, Michael Confordo, Mike Yostremski, Lordes Curiel, Joey Gallo, who's lower in points, Jeff McNeil, Alston Meadows, Michael Brantley, who is lower in categories, and Max Kepler, who is also lower in categories. And I realize there's a lot of names to follow here, so if you want to pull up the article and kind of read that and follow along while we're doing the podcast here, feel free to do so. So lots of names in this tier ranges from Randy Rosarena at Pick 69, all the way down to

Joey Gallo at Pick 158. Randy and Roserana, just the talk of the postseason, the off season as well. So I wanted to give each of you a certain amount of time, whatever it might be. We'll go with a minute.

You don't have to go a minute. You could go a minute or less. But Scott, we'll start with you. Your thoughts in general, your evaluation of a Roserena last year, and how you view him for this upcoming season. Well, going into last year, he looked like kind of,

he wasn't even on my top 100 prospects, you know, and he was the, uh, raised traded Matthew Liberator for him and, and everyone was like, oh, that must mean something's wrong with Matthew Liberator when it turns out. Maybe the race just saw something in Randy arrows arena,

and that's what it took to get him. He had 17 home runs between the regular and postseason. he hit more like I think that was I think that was as many home runs as Mike Trout hit but if you were at bats I can't remember a guy who had you know this sudden burst of productions that added up to as many as 17 home runs and and then you know turned back into a pumpkin after that so I don't know I have I have my doubts, but like, you don't have to be all in on Randy Arrow's arena given his ADP. And the fact he can also steal some bases, like it seems like a good gamble to take. It is kind of interesting to compare, you know, like here's a similar player.

Luke Voight in 2018, played 39 games for the Yankees, had 14 home runs at a 1095 OPS. Not quite as good as what Randy Oroz Arena. And he was a little bit older, although I think it was only about a three-year gap. But you're talking about, you know, relatively similar minor league profiles, you know, kind of came out of nowhere late in the season. And Luke Voix was certainly not a top 100 pick. And he was really quite good in 2019 for the most part. You probably can't fake what Randy a Rosarina did. if you're able to do that, you're probably pretty good.

But it's not a guarantee. You know, let's think back on some guys who weren't quite as good, but Austin Riley. You know, what was it? 14 home runs in his first two months. Yeah, two months. Arista Zakino at the end of the 2019 season, I believe, had a similar run. The Punisher. Yeah, it wasn't, again, a Rosarana did it in a higher profile situation against, you

know, more consistently top level competition, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's a superstar. It also doesn't necessarily mean he's not. He very well could be. Um, so, you know, Randy or Rosarena in conclusion is a land of contrasts. I was about to say, you just said a lot there, Chris. So let's say, nothing. Let's sum it up like this. The ADP 69, would you draft him there? Sixth round. No. No. Okay. And you get one of those. That's higher than I thought it was, to be honest. He's been going later in our drafts. I have an 84, so it's not like I'm like, you know,

crushing him or anything. It's just a little too early for me. By the way, if we're looking at this from a tier's perspective, I think I got that breakdown wrong a little earlier. It was actually like the round two through six range where there's not a lot going on in the outfield, maybe the two through six, seven range. Because here, this tier gets big, like you said, Frank.

This is where I often get a couple outfielders from this tier. I'm back in on Nick Castellanos, who's this tier, in this tier. You mentioned Michael Conforto. I've drafted him as my first outfielder in a couple leagues already, Frank. It's, you know, I don't mind taking the gamble on Teasca. I mean, on Randy Arrows-A-N-I-N-I-Dar-N-A-N-S-E-Nandez, actually. And he's also on this tier. Yeah, I love this tier as well.

So basically what you're saying, Scott, is the near elite tier, which kind of spans that whole round three through five range, basically, is probably one that you're fading. That's what I'm gaining from this so far. Yeah, I mean, I just think there's higher priorities at that point. It's not that... I mean, I like the value of George Springer in, like, a vacuum, but it still requires a fifth round pick, right?

and I just, there's something else I need more in the fifth round. Yeah, you look at, you know, the near elite tier. And one thing that that's worth keeping in mind about that tier is it's kind of either guys who are getting pushed up because of stolen bases or, you know, pretty significant injury risks. And then there's, you know, Eloy Jimenez is kind of the only, or significant injury risks or older guys. and then Eloy Hemanis kind of stands alone.

Eloy has some injury risk as well. You know, I, yeah. I'm one of the biggest Eloy supporters out there, but it's something we do have to consider and keep in mind. I mean, he has not had a clean bill of health in his major league career and his minor league career. So keep that in mind for Eloy. Just wrap up this next best things.

Scott, you pointed out some outfielders you like here. I love this tier as well. Austin Meadows. I'm going to be all over him. You know, he was a third, fourth round pick last year, had the weird COVID season dealt with an oblique injury. People are worried about him potentially being platooned. I don't worry about it because his numbers against lefties,

both in 2019 and 2018, were very good. So Austin Meadows, I'm buying back in on hard there. Castellanos, I love as well. Trent Grisham, I actually don't mind at the cost. The fallback options, there's a lot of names here as well. Tommy Fem, Eddie Rosario, current free agent, Dylan Moore, Anthony Santander, Clint Frazier, Ryan Mountcastle,

AJ Pollock, Kyle Lewis, Ramon Luriano, Alex Verdugo, Mark Kanna, who is lower in categories, Byron Buckson, who is lower in points,

Dylan Carlson, Trey Mancini, and Ian Hap. My biggest takeaway from this tier is Tommy FAM is basically held together by duct tape

at this point, and I realize that. But playing through a partially torn UCL, fractured his ham-a-bone last season, fractured his foot back in 2018. He had LASIC surgery in the past.

He turns 33 years old in March. And with all that being said, Chris, I really like Tommy Pham. His ADP is 121, at least 20 homers and 15 steals in each of 2017 through 2019. He hit 219 last season. His expected batting average was 266.

So I still really like Tommy Pham. Yeah, I think the biggest thing is that he's just, he's 33, or he will be on opening day. and, you know, when you're that age and when we're starting to see some skill, skill declines, in addition to, you know, the ever-present threat of injury, you know, I think skepticism is warranted, but I think he's a good value. You know, if he does manage to stay healthy and play 125 games, he's going to be, you know, probably a pretty significant contributor for your roto team.

And actually, he's, you know, quite good in points leagues as well. the question will be, is it 125 games with like 65 and then 60 and 35 games off in between them? Or is it, you know, five games a week, I guess is kind of one of the questions with Tommy fam. Yeah, walks a decent bit, doesn't strike out all that much. Joined a team that likes to run a lot too. And sprint speed still looks pretty good. I'm going to move on to the next year just so we can, we have some time to get to starting pitchers as well. but the last resort's Chris Taylor, Yassiel Pueg, free agent currently.

You have to be signs, right? Yeah, Lorenzo Kane, Andrew Benintendi, Victor Robles, who would be lower in a points league, Andrew McCutcheon, Jesse Winker, David Dahl, Nixon Zell, Jared Kalenick, Tommy Edmund, who is lower in a points league, Alex Kiroloff, Aaron Hicks, Brendan Nimmo, who would be lower in a Categories League. Scott, who's your favorite from this group? Alex Gieloff is my favor from this group. There are a lot of playing time issues within this group, but I think his is going to be pretty solid.

And if he meets his full potential right away, I mean, he could be a stud. He could be a stud. Not going to steal bases, but he could be a stud in every other way. I will say for some reason, the Fangraph's projections have him for like seven or eight steals. It's probably not going to happen.

but I don't know, they see something there with him. So a big prospect there in Kirillov. I'm pretty excited about him as well. There's two other tiers we didn't get to. Again, you can find those on the site, cbosports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. We're going to take a quick break. When we return, we'll hit the starting pitcher tiers here,

fantasy baseball today. So when it comes to the starting pitchers, I've seen a few people point this out on Twitter, and it has me thinking. Is our aggressiveness on starting pitchers irrational because theoretically there are still many unknowns

for even the top tier at this position. We assume that the top of this position will have no limitations but they could also be susceptible to injury ramping up, throwing more innings, many more endings this season than last season and there are workload concerns just like there are for anybody else

among pitchers. So Scott, what do you think about that? Do you think us moving up moving pitchers up to draft board is a rational base on this this mindset I'm being selective in who I definitely value experience

and having done it before I've always valued that when it comes to workload but especially coming off such a short season I think those guys are going to have a leash I can't guarantee none of them will get hurt obviously that's always an issue at pitcher especially and really for any player but especially a pitcher

and investing early in pitching is a higher risk game. I just think it's become essential because you can't win without good pitching. And it's too hard to get good pitching if you don't invest in it. It's such a tight rope that you can't reasonably expect to walk it. So that's where it is. like you're, which which is why kind of my approach to countering the risk is to just invest even heavier in pitching to, to, um, you know, help, help, uh, help, help navigate that,

that, that injury situation and to trust yourself to be able to find hitters on the fly, because that's, that's, it's more common to do that off the waiver wire than it is to find a great starting pitcher off the waiver wire these days. Yeah, very well said, Scott. And I had Toby at Batflip Crazy on Twitter on this podcast right around Thanksgiving time. You could go back and listen to it on demand. But a lot of strategy discussion. And he was very, very big on Pocket Aces last year, using your first two picks on starting pitchers.

And Scott, I know that you were very aggressive with doing that as well. That's how you won the Mixed Out Wars League. And I know that Toby had a lot of success in his high stakes endeavors as well. So you could go back and listen to that. but his whole reasoning was that you double down on starting pitcher early almost as an insurance policy so that like if one of them bust, hopefully the other one is there to like pick them up. And if they both hit, then you're just way ahead of the field on starting pitching. So I think that makes a lot of sense.

To me, that's still cutting it too close. Like I want four of the top 30 ideally. Like I want to be able to count on two going down for a stretch and not even just because, you know, if you're the guy who draft. drafted Verlander and Scherzer with your first two picks last year. It didn't go so well for you. Let's say Verlander and Strasbourg, you know, like disaster. You know, it still wasn't enough.

So I understand you have to draw the line somewhere and still focus on hitting and still get some good hitters. But I just think those are easier to find at all stages of the draft and after the drafts over off the waiver. It depends on the depth of the league to a degree. Yes, 15 team leagues, it's harder to find them on the waiver wire. But it's still easier than to get a stud pitcher that way. The super elite tier, CBD, as I like to call them, Cole Bieber and DeGrom. Sneak peek, our full rankings will be out next week. But I have these three starting pitchers as my top three overall players in head-to-head points leagues.

Chris, is that too aggressive? No, I have Jacob de Grom as my number one player And I have those three in my top six and head to head point So I think that's perfectly reasonable But Chris DeGrom can't win games Well, I'm kind of at the point with DeGrom Sort of where I am with Trout And where like

You know, Garrett Cole in 2019 Shane Bieber in 2020 There's always a new guy who puts up very similar numbers To what Jacob de Grom just like has done for four straight years and I guess the counter to that would be he's 34. We'll be 34 this year or 33. He's old enough to where you can start thinking, man, you're durable until you aren't.

And he's had some kind of nagging concerns. He's had some little elbow things here and there over the last couple of years. But I'm kind of at the point where I just, I can't see an argument really for anyone but de Grom, number one overall. Like everyone else is outlier. wow, everything went right for you year is as good as Jacob de Grom's normal good year,

with the exception of those wins. That's the thing that kind of has tended to push him down the draft, the final rankings every year. He usually finishes four or five wins below, you know, the other guys in his tier. But if he wins as many games as Shane Bieber this season or Garrett Cole, I think he's going to be a better fantasy option. And so given how fungible wins are and given how, you know, hard to predict,

I think he's number one at starting pitcher with a bullet. And who knows, given the way the last few years have gone, maybe he'll come out and throw 104 miles an hour this year. He just keeps adding velocity to his fastball somehow. What I'll say about wins is I think there are a lot like touchdowns in fantasy football where you can't really project them. And I'm not sure that they are a tangible skill. The only thing that really goes into wins that we can correlate is going deep into games.

And I guess having a good bullpen and good runs. support. But theoretically, the Mets have all those things. The Mets' offense just ranked second in the league in OPS. And they added Francisco Lindor. So it's not really on him. Like this is the best version of DeGrom that we've seen. He goes deep into his starts. He's absolutely filthy. He gets a ton of strikeouts. I think he's just been unlucky. And I think this is like a streak of unluckiness. So I'm, I'm not holding that against him. One of these years, I think it's going to work out. And he's just going to go off and win like 18 to 20 games. So yeah. And that's the thing is if he wins 18 to 20 games, there's very little doubt in my mind

that he will be, you know, maybe not the number one starting pitcher, but probably. Yeah, probably. The elite tier includes Trevor Bauer, U. Darvish, Aaron Nola, Lucas Gialito, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kirschaw, Luis Castillo, Kenta Mayeta, Jack Flaherty, Walker Bueller, Zach Gallin, Carlos Carrasco, and Brandon Woodruff. Lots of names in that tier. ADP ranging from 15 with Bauer down to 48 with Maeda. Scott, by the end of this tier, how many starting pitchers do you want on your roster?

Wow, I am certainly the high guy on Maeda because I am in the middle of this tier. How many pitchers do I want on my roster by the end tier? I would say three, ideally. Now, our most recent head-to-head mock, I only had two. And I didn't like the way it felt.

I didn't like the way I felt. TISC. Yeah, I want three by the end of this tier. Can I offer a new name for this tier? Sure. Either why pocket aces make sense or why waiting on starting pitcher makes sense because this is a crazy volatile group of pitchers.

You've got, you know, not all of them are volatile. You've got Aaron Nola who's done it for a long time. You've got... I mean, you have the face of volatility in this tier, And he's right at the top, Chris. It's Trevor Bauer. Right. Like Trevor Bauer, we did this three years ago or two years ago, I guess,

heading into 2019. We did this with, you know, I had him as my number four starting pitcher. I bought in completely. And there are reasons why, you know, I think 2020 might have been a bit more sustainable. But there are also reasons to be skeptical. This was, you know, he had the easiest schedule by far, you know, with pitching for the Cincinnati Reds against the NL and AAL Central. He had a pretty significant.

difference between his ERA and his fit, which is going to happen when you have like a 1-7 ERA. But, you know, he wasn't quite as dominant based on the underlying peripherals. And you have the track record. But it's not just that. You have Darvish. You have, I think G. Alito is pretty safe, but you have Scherzer with the injury history. You have Maeda, who's only really done it in that one shortened season. You have Flaherty who's been super volatile.

Walker Bueller, who's been very good, but doesn't have the track record of that workload. You've got Carasco who is 34 years old. You've got, you know, Gowan and Woodruff, I think, are, you know, as safe as you can be for pitchers who are that young or, you know, relatively new in their careers, I guess. But this is a very scary tier where, you know, I think you're probably going to end up looking at the end of the season at half of these guys busting. And it's just impossible to say which ones will. I disagree that it's volatile. I think among starting pitchers, this is,

I mean, as much stability as you're going to find. I mean, remember you Darvish, he had that kind of two-year blip with the Cubs where he wasn't very good, but for the rest of his career, he's been an elite pitcher in fantasy.

Right, but he's old. Obviously, taking it to a new level the last two years. But he is old. Yeah, I don't know. I certainly like, like, like,

this tier, compared to the next tier, it's safer. Compared to the tier after that, it's safe. Sure. This kind of highlights what historically has been the case, which is that pitchers, and this is research that I did last season, then I'll update it, but pitchers drafting the first two rounds tend to return a very good return on investment, very similar to hitters. From rounds three on, there is a very low correlation between draft cost and,

final results. And now the problem with that is like I said, it's really hard to say which of these pitchers and it's not just this group. Really, I think from what I remember of the data, it was like from rounds three through nine, there was very little difference

between how high a pitcher was taken and how much they returned on investment. Like your round four pick was not necessarily more valuable at starting pitcher than your round nine pick based on history. But which of those round nine guys are going to pitch like the round four guys and which of the round four guys are going to pitch like the round 25 guys and which of the round you know yeah that's that's always the hard thing to say yep and uh you took the thought you know right from my head chris because that's something that i have read in the past as well is really like that mid tier of starting pitcher is the toughest to predict and the return on on investment is very um volatile i mean that's that's the key word that we're using it the return on investment's pretty tough to figure out that

So that's why, if you need another reason, I just keep pumping up, like, drafting two pitchers in the first two rounds or two in the first three, trying to get like two of, whoever is ranked inside your top 10 or 12, and then maybe taking a few rounds off and then attacking the position a little bit later on. But yeah, I have noticed that as well with that mids here. The near elite, which features some of those, some of those ranked pitchers, Lance Lynn, Blake Snell, Denelson Lament, Tyler Glassnow, Steven Strasberg, Corbin Burns, Zach Granky, Hyunjou, Zach Plissack, and Kyle Hendricks. So this is an interesting tier.

I mean, you have injury concerns with Snell to a degree. Denelson Lomet, Tyler Glassnow, Stephen Shrosberg's coming back from surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome, workload concerns with Corbyn Burns, sample size concerns with Zach Plesack, who we've only seen been awesome for eight starts that he just had this season. So he's the name I wanted to focus on. He's very polarizing. Some people willing to take him in side of... As soon goes a top 10 starting pitcher. Inside the first three rounds. And there are other drafts where he lasts to round six or round seven. So I wanted to make the case for and against which side of

the coin would you guys like to be on? Scott? I mean, I'll be four because I think I am generally for him. Okay. Go. You have 30 seconds starting right now. So he entirely changed his pitch mix last year in a way that made all the pitches better, got a lot more swinging strikes.

He had the best rate of going seven plus innings per start of any starting pitcher. So he was efficient. Cleveland let him work deep into games and the skill level was dramatically improved. It all points to this big rise in production that he had. Small sample, I hear you, but, you know, people weren't arguing too hard against Zach Gallen for that at this time last year.

You know, at some point, you just got to take a leap of faith. Mercy! You were 10 seconds over. Scott, the case against Zach Plyssack. Chris, you mean? Yeah. Sample size. Like, yes, it was a small sample size for Zach Allen,

but he also had a minor league track record that was, you know, I think, quite a bit more impressive. Look at police sacks. Look at police sacks. Well, Pleesax was pretty good in 2019 and, you know, 60 some odd innings in the minors. And then he got called up to the majors and a 494.

FIPP, you know, 2018, 122 innings at, high A, he had a 404 ERA, and then 22 innings at double A, he was really good. And so, it's just a small sample size. He's not a hard thrower. There's just a lot of ways it can go wrong. And if you're talking about, you know, potentially if you want him in some drafts, you might have to take him in the fifth round. There are more ways that goes wrong than goes right, I think. The next best things, Max Fried, Zach Wheeler, Sunny Gray, Framber Valdez, Dylan Bundy, Jose Barrios, and Chris Paddock. Lots of polarizing names here. Many thoughts

that people have on Valdez. You either love them or hate him. And Chris Paddock, who I find myself drafting a decent bit. This is the tier for me, Scott, where by the end of this group, I won at least four starting pitchers. This is close to right around my top 30. I think this kind of ranges into like my top 33, 34 starting pitchers. So by the end of this, I really want at least four starting pitchers on my team, if not more. Yeah, I would say five. It hasn't always worked out that way, but I always love my pitching when I get Framber Valdez in there as my fifth starting pitcher. And this tier is kind of the guys I feel like could go either way.

There's certainly a case for them being high-end must-start borderline ace type of pitchers. but we saw Bereas and Paddock fall well short of that last year. We saw Bundy and Valdez fall well short of that for their entire career until last year. And we've seen Sunny Gray be all over the place throughout his career, including just within last year. He looked like the best pitcher in the world at the start and then was kind of limping to the finish line. Wheeler and Freed, you know, I don't know that they really have elite.

upside, either one of them, but they're high floor and I think they're close enough that they're worth tiering with that tiering with everyone else there. In fact, I actually ranked them the highest in the tier. Yeah, Wheeler in particular is somebody that I've been targeting

if you want workload and if you want volume because he was going very deep into his starts last season in. 11 starts. He went he went five in two-thirds and all of them. He went at least six in eight out of 11.

So, you know, less strikeouts than usual. He was pitching more to contact, but that allowed him to go deeper into starts. So someone that I'm looking at for volume, again, that is Zach Wheeler. The fallback options. Ian Anderson, Sixtho Sanchez, Jesus Lazzardo, Lance McCullors, Patrick Corbin,

Charlie Morton, Mike Soroka, Julio Arias, Sandy Alcantara, Herman Marquez, Kevin Gousman. Gausman and Tristan McKenzie. I got to stop making that mistake. Someone emailed in last year and they're like, stop saying his name like that for Kevin Gausman.

Yeah, this is a pretty fun tier outside of Patrick Corbyn. I don't want to poo-poo him too much. Scott, Chris, Chris, we'll go to you. Expectations for some of the Marlins, you got the hat on. Got your Marlins hat on. You can see it on our YouTube channel. Sixo Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara in this group. six though is I think one of the biggest question marks when it comes to innings because he was

someone who was held back quite a bit in his minor league career his career high innings was 114 innings thrown in 2019 he threw I guess with the playoffs probably 48 or so I think he made two starts in the playoffs how much are they going to let him throw is he going to be a 125 inning guy you know that might be where it is but I think he's you know going to do a very very similar. I think he could be like a Jose Burrios type in that time. I think he could go deep into games. I think he could be a very effective pitcher.

And there's a chance that he starts getting the swinging strikes that his stuff would make you think. But Alcantar is probably the better option for fantasy. He actually does consistently go deep into games. And basically since the second half of the 2019 season, he's been, you know, he's cut the walks to a more manageable place. And I think he can be very similar to someone like Zach Wheeler. I think maybe not, you know, maybe a little riskier in terms of whip.

But Sandy Alcantara, I think in this range, you know, makes a lot of sense as, you know, especially in head to head points league, I think. So this is kind of the tier of workload concerns, right? Because not only Sixthos Sanchez, you got Ian Anderson in here, Jesus Luzardo, Tristan McKenzie. You know, I think Lance McCullors fits in that category. Mike Soroka, Leo Arreus. And then, you know, with them are guys like Patrick Corbyn,

Charlie Morton, who we've seen be really good in the past, but just tanked in 2020 in a way that makes you wonder if they'll ever be good again. And actually, Morton did bounce back pretty well. He was awesome in the postseason. Yeah.

I'm going to have a lot of Corbyn and Morton. Corbin had, his velocity wasn't right all year, and maybe it was because of the weird buildup. I mean, that certainly could prove to be true, but I would have liked to see a little glimmer of something from him that we never got. Yeah, Corbyn, I believe it was, gave up 24 hits over his final two starts,

and he had the highest whip of all a qualified starting pitchers. So, oh, he was bad. A little bit worried about Corbyn, but if you're like Chris. He was like a top 12 starting pitcher three years before, in a row before that, or at least two. Two. Yeah. Yeah.

So if you just want to buy the dip, you can get him at a much, at a huge discount compared to years past. The last resorts, I'm not going to read all these names because there is a lot. Scott, in, let's say 30 seconds or less. Give me your favorite from this group, The Last Resorts. So I'm not totally comfortable with all the names in this tier. I was really wrestling with it last night, wondering if the cutoff is exactly where it should be. It gets hard late in the pitching categories. You asked for my how many favorite?

No, just one. One favorite? it. Gosh, it's probably the guy, it's probably the guy right at the very top, Corey Klobber. That's the one I'm, like, because that's the one who I think has the clearest opportunity to ascend as many as three tiers.

You know, he's either right or he's not right. And if he's right, then the last time we saw him pitch healthy, 2018, he was the Cy Young contender, like he, 20-game winner, you know? He was as good as he's ever been. So I think he's worth the game. example at this point. I do like Joe Musgrove a lot as it seems like everybody is starting to, but I don't think he has

quite the same ceiling as Glover. I'm a little surprised you don't have Musgrove in the tier above, Scott, but, I mean, we've talked, he'll be there in September. Chris, you're just going to lean on that joke all off-season. Chris, your favorite in this group?

Relative to price, I'm going to have, I think Marco Gonzalez, I'm just resigned to having him on every single one of my teams. And that was pretty much the case last year as well. Chris, when's your birthday? Exactly. What's that? When's your birthday? July 4th. Okay. So Scott and I will... Yeah, Scott and I will pitch in for that. Uh, his birthday is easy to remember. Yeah, he's, um, he, he's, he's the exact opposite of the kind of player fantasy baseball, Twitter tends to get excited about. He doesn't throw hard. He doesn't have like a, a wicked curve ball or anything. But,

you know, he's basically, he's been, he's been. He's been. very useful three years in a row for fantasy and he was really good last year. You know, in ways that weren't dissimilar from, you know, some guys who I think were a lot more excited about like a Zach Pleasack. Actually, the strikeout and walk numbers are very similar for the two of them. The swing and strike rate obviously very different. But, you know, he just, he feels like someone you can get as your very last starting pitcher or even. even a bench guy, and he's just going to be super useful every year. Especially in a points league.

Nobody wants Marco Gonzalez. He is awesome in that format. Pitches very efficiently, goes deep into his starts, doesn't walk anybody. Marco G, really, really good, especially in points leagues. I will just point out Tyler Malley. I've been drafting a lot of Malley so far in my mock drafts in some of the real drafts that I've done. He finally put it together in 2020, 359 ERA, 1-15 whip, 60 strikeers. out across 47 and two-thirds innings.

11.3K per 9, by far the best of his career. That was supported by a 13.8% swinging strike rate, changed up his pitch mix. He went back to using the slider that he used back in 2018 to go along with a splitter and a mid-90s fastball. If you guys want something to watch, if you want some starts to watch over the weekend for pitchers, watch Tyler Malley's last two starts from last season. There was a few times he made Jose a break.

you, who won the American League MVP, look absolutely foolish. So Tyler Malley, definitely a name that I'm on. There's two other tiers that we didn't get to, and they each have like 50 names in them, so you can find those on the site. CBSports.com slash fantasy. How many times have I promoted that throughout this podcast a lot? But it's warranted because it's really good work, so you can find Scott's tiers there on the site.

For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Monday. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.