Fantasy Baseball Today - Outfield Recap, Early 2023 Rankings & Jose Abreu to the Astros! (11/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 29, 2022

Before we jump into the outfield, Jose Abreu signed with the Astros (4:30)! ... Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts and Yordan Alvarez kick off our top three (11:55). ... Could Kyle Tucker's batting average rebound (19:05)? ... Is it time to finally trust Randy Arozarena (23:33)? ... Are there warning signs with Michael Harris (29:07)? ... Is Starling Marte slowing down (34:16)? ... News (39:33): Bryce Harper could miss the entire first half next season. ... Are Ronald Acuña and Juan Soto still worthy of first-round picks (48:45)? ... We need Luis Robert to stay on the field (54:11). ... Is Adolis Garcia ranked too low (57:05)? ... Outfield is filled with a bunch of injury-prone players (1:00:45). Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Position recaps roll on. Next up, we jump into that pesky outfield position.

Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, November 29th. Frank Stample joined once again by a festive, Scott White, the setup has changed. He's gone back to the OG. Christmas tree is up behind him. All lit up, ornaments ready to go. The Santa hat is on. I love it, Scotty.

I love it. It's Christmas season, baby. Christmas, I've held off. All right, I let you people have your month of November. It's technically still November, right? But I get it. You know, before Thanksgiving, Christmas cheers. It's a little early for that.

You know, some people want to start it right after Halloween. No, that's, you know, you got to let, you got to let the Thanksgiving happen. But once Thanksgiving is here, you know, the very next day, the tree went up. I wrapped 28 gifts last week, 28, Frank. I don't have that much more to do, to be honest. You're an animal. I'm an animal, yes. And I just, I might just wear the Santa hat every show until, uh, until Christmas.

Gump's. I am all about it, Scotty. And you know what? Christmas tree is going up this weekend in the Stamphill House. And if I stumble across the Santa Hat somewhere, I will join you. And we'll, we'll be both wearing Santa Hats. Santa December. Throughout all of December to remember. You know what's crazy about everything you just said is that most people do their Christmas shopping on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, if you're watching us live right now on YouTube. And you said, that you wrapped all of your gifts last week, Scott. So when did you get all your gifts? Early last week.

You, that is just... No, it's fun. That is awesome. Both of my sons, which, you know, obviously they're who I'm buying most of the gifts for because they're children. Both of their birthdays are in the fall. So, like, the way I go about shopping for their birthdays is I just buy a lot of stuff.

and I figure out what I'm actually going to give them for their birthday. And some of the stuff I just hold back till Christmas, you know. Today on the show, Scott, we are recapping the outfield position. Today is one of those shows, and I told Scott before we started, the rundown is just absolutely packed. I have a recap of the top 20 outfielders, then Scott's top 24 ranked for next season, 2023. I don't know how many of those names will actually get to,

but we'll try our best. And of course, we do have some news. There's nothing crazy big going on, but Jose Abraeu to the Astros is actually where we're going to start. We had Hunter Renfrogate to the Angels, and we do have a confirmation on Tommy John surgery for Bryce Harper. That's all coming up a little bit later on, but... You think they're going to clip this Jose Abraeu analysis? Like, should I take the Santa Hat off in case they're going to clip it to use it as a separate video? You know, because sometimes they do that.

Scott, a little behind the curtain here. You realize whenever you say they, you're just talking about... me, right? No, I didn't realize. Are you going to clip the Jose Abraeu analysis, Frank? I am 1,000% going to clip the Jose Abraeu analysis. Right. I'll just, I'll take off this hat.

All right. See, how messed up is my hair? But you, I'm like, I'm, I'm kind of at this point in life where I'm like, you know, like, don't touch the hair, you know, with my kids, don't touch the hair. Like, it actually stays put. Like, I, I wake up. And my hair is like this. I don't have to do anything to it.

It's weird. I bought this new pillow. And for some reason that that contributes to it. Like, it's weird. But, okay. So I think the hairs still put together after the Santa Hat's on. So we can do this. Jose Ibrayu analysis.

Consider yourself lucky, Scott. As soon as we finish Jose Abraeu, that Santa Hat is going right back on. Josea Brayu is signing with the Houston Astros last year. He hit 304, 15 home runs, 85 runs, 75 RBI. with the White Sox, of course, and both the home runs and the RBI were his lowest in any of his eight full seasons.

But Scott, as we mentioned, on our first base recap, Jose Ibray was still really crushed the ball. 93rd percentile average exit velocity, 97th percentile hard hit rate, 296 expected batting average, and he's got a park shift upgrade here, going into Houston. Obviously, they got that short porch in left field,

and it's a lineup upgrade. It's a huge lineup upgrade. not to discount the White Sox. They have a very good lineup themselves, but they're not the Houston Astros. So earlier in the offseason, I noticed you had Jose Barrio ranked seventh at first base. Do you plan on moving him up?

Probably not. I've come to terms with the idea that if I have any chance of getting Vinnie Pasquantino, I have to make him number six at first base. And in points league, specifically, I might have Anthony Rizzo ahead of Abraeu because the low strike. Oh, you know, then again,

Jose Ibrahim had a low strikeout rate himself last year. He doesn't walk very much for points leagues, though. Yeah, but it was 16.2%. It was the best strikeout rate of his career. Just all around a weird season for Jose Abraeu. His home runs were cut in half from 2021, 30 to 15. And I think that was, I mean, that's really all you can knock.

He had over 300. Like I said, the low strikeout rate. he hit the ball very hard as you point out so I guess the early hesitants to draft him and of course we're dealing with a tiny sample of drafts with a lot more offseason to happen so it feels kind of funny to even talk about any mock draft data

but it's out there and Jose Bray was going in my opinion crazy late considering his reputation his track record and the fact that I look at that stat line from last year with the 15 home runs. And it looks totally fluky to me. I mean, he's 35, I get it so you can make the argument, okay, he's getting old.

So that's why the home runs declined. Maybe that's an argument to make. The ball changed, and we saw power production go down, particularly for certain players. But the reason why I don't think either of those arguments holds water is because, A, Jose O'Bray hit the ball, as hard as ever, his average exit velocity, 93rd percentile, his hard hit rate 97th percentile.

So that doesn't, combined with the career low strikeout rate, that doesn't scream regression. And B, the kinds of players who saw their power sapped were the ones not hitting the ball that hard, the ones who had middling to low exit velocities. They were the guys who really suffered from the new ball, and Jose O'Bray doesn't fit into that category either. his ex-slug was 486, 92nd percentile, despite his actual slug being only 446.

So that would suggest it was kind of a fluky thing as well. And I think there's a good chance, even if he wasn't going to Houston, that Jose Abrae would have a big bounce-back season. Because other than the home run total, I don't see in what way he declined. But now he is going to Houston, where stat-casts, estimates he would have had seven more home runs if he played all his games in Houston than he actually had last season. So it does appear to be a park upgrade

just by that measure. And yeah, the loaded lineup. I mean, Jose Abraeu, and I know, you know, since the time of Moneyball, we've dismissed RBI as an individual achievement. It's just kind of something that happens. It's by happenstance that you get an RBI total. the people batting around you where you're batting in the lineup.

This contributes to a big RBI total. It's not something a hitter has direct control over. But Jose Ibrahim, over the years, has looked like an exception to that rule. He has this uncanny knack for getting RBI. And his 162 game pace over his entire career is 110 RBI. He had 117 RBI and a pretty bad White Sox lineup in 2020. and led the AL and RBI the two years before that.

So, like, this guy is great at driving and runs, and now he has this amazing Astros lineup that he's a part of. That's only going to help with that already existing strength of his. And you factor in the obvious batting average potential, the likelihood of him rebounding power-wise. And I think, yeah, I think this is, I don't think he needed this good news, But in a way, I'm kind of like, this move to the Astros is perceived as such an upgrade for Jose Abrae.

But everybody else is probably going to catch up to where I already was with him. That's what I think is going to happen. So the early 80 piece got through 40 dress. Again, small sample, a lot more to happen here in the offseason. 127.6 for Jose Abraeu as the 10th first basement off the board. My guess is that he now pushes that top 100, maybe even gets inside the top 100, which is right where Vinie Pass Guantino. and Nate Lowe are currently going.

So I think Jose Ibrahim is kind of going to wind up in a similar tier as those guys. And I think that makes sense. Based on everything that you just said, the top six in the Astros lineup projected to be Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordaun Alvarez, Jose Abraeu, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena. Are you kidding me?

That's an insane lineup. So I think it's an absolutely great landing spot. Last point on him, and I've referenced this in years past, Jose Abrae, being a Cuban-born player, this is something he's talked about in the past, where he's gotten off to slow starts. It's really cold in the months of March and April in Chicago.

He's now going to be playing in Houston inside of a dome and in the AL West. So maybe he doesn't get off to that slow start. Maybe I'm reaching here, Scott, but it's something I've always thought about when it comes to Jose Brayu. I wouldn't surprise me. I mean, I wouldn't have put much stock in that prior to this year. Well, really, it's the last two years, but especially this year,

the way we saw offense suppressed to such an extreme in those colder months. Yeah, if you can avoid the cold, I think that's good for any hitter. And if it's something Jose Abrae who specifically has talked about, then I guess even more so for him. All right. Last points on this entire trade, I guess the fallout from the White Sox perspective, Andrew Vaughan is now free to play first base, which is what we expected because the White Sox basically said they weren't going to bring Jose Abrae back, which means. means Eloi Jimenez could see more time as the regular D.H.

for the White Sox, hopefully that can help keep him on the field. And it's also good news for Matt Mervis, the Cubs' first base prospect, because they were also linked to Jose Ibrahim. I guess they could still bring in a first basement or a DH type. But, you know, obviously for now, that helps the idea of Matt Mervis being on the opening day roster for the Chicago Cubs. Let's jump into the outfield recap for this past season. Scott, let's get that Santa hat back on.

Let's run through the top. I've got about the top 20 from this past year in Roto. Could mention what they did a little bit in heads head points leagues as well. We're going to work through clusters of three at a time. Quick thought on each Scott because obviously there's so many names to get to here. And we will start with the top three. And Aaron Judge, first overall in Roto this past season. No surprise.

Mookie Betz finished ninth overall in Roto. And Yordaun Alvarez was 10th overall in that format. Both bets in Alvarez averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game, which is a great mark. Aaron Judge was the only player to clear 700 points in head-to-ed points leagues, and that was 90 points more than Sandy Alcansara, the next closest player. Just absolutely crazy stuff.

And I imagine no other hitter came close to Sandy O'Contra, much less passing him. There was not a single hitter over 600 fantasy points last year, Scott. Except for Judge, who was over 700, is what you're saying. Yeah. Distant, distant first among hitters. And he was a distant first in Roto. too. It's a little easier to measure in head-to-head.

But he was a distant first in both. And I think it's a pretty easy call to take him not just number one in the outfield, but number one overall. Now, this, I don't think this is the consensus view, at least not right now. But I am willing to die on the self. If this means I get Aaron Judge any time I'm picking in the first five picks, then I am happy to do that because, You know, I guess the arguments I've heard against him, number one is, oh, well, you know, outlier season.

You don't pay for somebody's career season. First of all, in Judge's case, 62 home runs, not that big of an outlier. He had 52 as a rookie remember. And 62, after the power suppressed season we just had, it was 16 more than any other player. Kyle Schwerber was second with 46, and I think third was. I don't remember who was third, but it was quite a bit behind that also. So I'm not asking him to hit 62 again. I think if he hits 45 or so, it'll be enough to justify it

because what we've seen from Judge, apart from the power product, okay, so I got to try and keep my argument presented in a way that, you know, you can follow along easily. I'm already failing in that regard. But Judge has always been, since that rookie season, when he hit 52 home runs, he's always stood out for how hard he hits the ball. John Carlos Stanton was up there with him. A couple other hitters might come close sometimes,

but consistently, Judge has been not just someone who hits the ball really hard, but pretty much the guy who hits the ball the hardest. And as we've seen already, prior to last year, it could lead to big home run outcomes. But I think what we saw last year is, is that with those middling exit velocity guys no longer hitting home runs at the same rate because of the new ball because of the humidor, the quality of contact matters more than ever. And for somebody who stands out in the way Judge does, it's going to mean he distances himself

from the pack in home runs. Before it was kind of wasted exit velocity. Now it's exit the velocity that translates to more home runs. So he doesn't need to hit 62, but I think he's still the odds-on favorite to lead the majors and home runs. And I think if he gets to 45, that'll make him worth of number one overall pick. Because also what we've seen from Judge, strikeout rate has gone down in recent years. He's now about a 25% guy.

That means he's a net benefit and batting average now. He hit over 300 this past year. It doesn't necessarily need to do that either, but we know he's capable of it. But we also saw him steal 18 bases. 16. 16 bases. Okay, people are acting like judges zero for speed.

Maybe he goes back to being a zero for speed, but, you know, stealing base is going to be a lot easier next year. And even if that doesn't help him, it's going to help the league, the rest of the league, so much that you don't need to sell out like crazy for stolen bases. And look, there's a chance he gives you 15 plus again. So not everything has to go right for judge. He doesn't have to repeat the season he just had. I think if he gets 75, 80% of the way there, seeing how distant of a first he was among hitters, I think it'll be worth a first number one overall pit.

Of course, maybe he gets hurt. He's shown a tendency to do that in the past, but I'm not going to sweat that so much because a lot of the other first rounders have injury histories of their own. You know what, Scott? You said it right, especially at this position, man. As we run through outfield,

you're going to see how many names are injury prone at this position. So Judge has now stayed healthy for two seasons in a row, and I'll tell you just one more reason why the exit velocity matters for him. He made a conscious change last year, Scott, to hit the ball in the air more

and to pull the ball more, which resulted in a clear outlier home run season. So I don't know that why he would change that approach now. No one's expecting him to hit 60 home runs, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he comes close to hitting 50 again, if he stays healthy. The other two names here, I just wanted to quickly mention.

Mookie Betz and Yerdon Alvarez are projected to be first round picks. And I will say, even with Mookie Betts, I think that he's slightly undervalued right now. I think his ADP is around 10th. I think he's worthy of being a top five pick overall, regardless of format in fantasy. Yeah. I actually have him, I have him third. I have him third overall. Second in the outfield, third overall.

I agree. I think, again, I think there's this tendency, and it's been going on for a few years now to really target the steals guys above all else early on. And I think, I think 2022 already started to dissuade people. Like, 2022 with power becoming harder to come by, began to devalue the stolen base in a way people. haven't completely caught up to yet. And I think 2023 with the new rules put in place and the stolen base explosion I'm expecting is going to completely undermine that approach.

So somebody like Mookie Betts, whose steals have declined since he joined the Dodgers. First of all, they may go up again because he's going to have more incentive to run too. And even if they don't, they're just, like I said, for Judge, they're just not going to be so valuable. that you should be passing up everything Buki Bettes delivers,

which is a ridiculous number of combined runs and RBI, especially the runs, batting high in that Dodgers lineup. All right, well, four through six in the outfield this past season was Kyle Tucker, who finished 14th overall, Adolese Garcia, 16th overall, and Julio Rodriguez, who finished 17th overall, Tucker. Batting average and expected batting average both took a bit of a step back. He's a career 268 hitter. I think that's probably what you should expect from Kyle Tucker moving forward.

Adolice Garcia, two straight seasons, 27 plus homers, 16 steals. Did make some improvements as well. Lowered the strikeout rate. Lowered his ground ball rate a little bit. Hits the ball extremely hard. I'm starting to just kind of buy it when it comes to Adoles Garcia. Holyro Rodriguez. I mean, we can do a whole podcast just about this kid, Scott.

I mean, what he did as a rookie, 28 homers, 25 steals. In fact, these three hitters I just mentioned, they were three of four hitters, the only four hitters, with 25 plus homers and 25 plus steals this past season. Julio, just a freak athlete, 92nd percentile, average exit velocity, 97th percentile sprint speed. We also what he did in the home run derby,

power for days, only slight negatives I could find Scott on Julio, which, look, if we're talking about taking him as a top three or top five overall pick, you know, we got to point out the flaws too here. Yeah, sure. The ground ball rate is a little high, in my opinion, 46%.

I think it's something he could lower a little bit more. It wouldn't surprise me one bit. It's not egregious, but it's just a touch high. And he only had four steals in the second half. They didn't really need him to run as much in that second half when he started hitting for power. He was just kind of more of the catalyst for the

lineup moving forward. So those are just a few things that stood out to me. But obviously this is a great group. Julio Adolius Garcia and Kyle Zuckerer. Yeah. I mean, if we're talking about where we draft them next year, Adolice Garcia would be well behind these others. He's the only one we've mentioned so far

top six outfielders from this past year who isn't a first rounder for me next year. And I mean, what, five of the top six or four of the... Yeah, basically Adolice Garcia is the only one who isn't a first rounder that we've mentioned so far. You said Kyle Tucker, you think he's probably just a 260 hitter. 268 is his career batting average. Yeah, so closer to 270, I guess.

Yep. Look, he hit 294 on 2021, which was 140 games, so full season. And his strikeout rate is consistently low. It was about 16% this past year, about 15.6%. I mean, that's really good. The XBA was still, you know, he was in the 260s also. Okay, he put the ball in the air a lot more than he ever has, which kind of compromised the batting average a bit.

But I think he'll find the happy medium there. And maybe he'll only hit 265 or so again, but I think there's the upside for a lot more with Kyle Tucker. So I'm not ready to just say that's, to condemn him to that, to condemn him to being just kind of an average batting average guy. I think he could be a real help there. And the most impressive thing for me from Kyle Tucker is that he stole 25 bases.

Remember, I was worried he wouldn't be able to repeat the 14 he stole in 2021. And he almost doubled it getting to 25. He's not very fast, but he's had a good success rate. And of course, those rule changes only figure to help him as well. So I don't see any reason he'll be slowing down moving forward. Yeah, the only thing I would point out, Sky, and I agree. If I were projecting him, projections are usually median projections, like the most likely outcome. Again, I think I would expect 270.

It wouldn't surprise me if he hit 290 or hit 300. But if you look at his expected batting averages by season, according to statcast, 262, 303, 261, 261. There's a clear outlier. So that's just what I'm going based on so far. The 303 in 2021 was his expected batting average. but yeah yeah you know he's still he's still a pretty inexperienced guy he's only had two full seasons yeah i'll give kyle tucker a little a little more benefit of the doubt there either way i mean deserves to be a first round pick hey as we'll talk about later on something that i don't think you

agree with based on your rankings i would take kyle tucker over wan soto this season but i'll save that for a little bit later on seven through nine in the outfield this past season was kyle schwarber who finished 20th overall randy rosarena 32nd overall and mike Mike Trout who finished a 33rd overall just behind Randy Rose Arena. Schwaber, Monster Power Year, 46 homers, 100 runs, 94 RBI, 10 steals. Where did that come from? Career high, never had more than four steals before in any season, and he's 29th percentile in sprint speed.

So I guess people just weren't holding him on, they weren't paying attention, and Schwerber took advantage. So shout out to him. 218 batting average, that's really bad. Like really, really bad. he leaned into the fly ball approach career high 51% flyball rate tanked his bad bib tanked his batting average he was terrible against lefties as well so I think those are places where he could get better you know maybe he gets up to like a 240 250 hitter but personally I don't know that I would

expect much more than that from him Randy Rosarena 20 homers 32 steals he gets caught stealing a lot Scott he's not a very efficient base runner but the rays continue to let him run wild. And maybe he'll become more efficient because the rules are getting easier, Frank. I don't know if you heard. He's ridiculous. He's like so fast guy where it would not surprise me one bit if he gets up over 40 steals. Randy Rosarina does.

And then Mike Trout, he had 40 home runs in 119 games. It was still a really, really good season for Mike Trout. But now we have this lingering chronic back condition. He's consistently missed time over the past four or five seasons anyway. Some kind of weird stuff going on underlying number. to Scott, like strikeout rate up two years in a row for Trout, fly ball rate 57%. That's like by far a career high. Seems like he's kind of selling out for power a little bit at this point too. I don't know that I love any of these players. I still like Schwerber quite a bit in

head-ed-ed points, but these were the seven through nine this past season. Schwerber or Rosarina Trout. Okay, repeat that. You don't know that you like any of... I don't know that I love any of these players. Like just looking at early ADP, you know, Trout's a second round pick. A Rosa Raina is like a third rounder. I think Schwerber is a fourth rounder. It's, I don't know that I like the value on any of them right now, but I'm still kind of figuring things out.

Here's the thing, Frank. We've talked about the relative strength, which positions are strong, weak relative to the others. And that's easier to pinpoint on the infield, where second base, you know, there's not a lot going on there. Third base.

It's really good at the top, but then it's basically going. by the time you get to round five, round six, seven or so. Outfield is about the same way. Six of the first eight picks. Most of the first round in your draft is probably going to be outfielders. But then once the good ones are gone, there's not a lot to get. It gets awful quickly.

And this especially shows up in five outfielder drafts. Three outfielder drafts, you know, and I'm thinking especially head-to-head leagues where you might be more focused on pitching anyway than you are in Roto leagues. You might not notice how weak outfield is so much because obviously there are fewer outfield spots to fill across the league,

but in five outfielder leagues, like I've never been a big proponent of filling outfield early. I usually, it's not uncommon for me to draft four or five infielders before I draft my first outfielder, that might be completely backward for me this year too. So particularly if you're somebody who takes Jose Ramirez in round one, Trey Turner in round one, somebody like that, you're probably going to get one of these outfielders.

At least you should because it gets ugly fast. I agree, if I can just give a quick comment here on each of these guys, I agree Kyle Schwerber, probably not better than a 240 hitter or so, but I think he's pretty likely because of the, the shift limitations to get back to being about a 240 hitter. His XBA was 237, even with the extreme fly ball rate. And, you know, I've said particularly for left-handed hitters, if you see the disparity between the XBA and the BA,

that's kind of a short-hand way to know the guy's going to benefit from that shift BAM. So keep that in mind with Shorebur. Arosa Rana had terrible expected stats again for the second straight season. But I think we're at a point with the Roseruner. or anywhere where we can just ignore the stack cast data. Like it just doesn't do a good job of measuring what he's all about. So I'll take his numbers at face value at this point

and treat him like a high in number two outfielder. Trout. Trout, I draft ahead of either of those guys. I think Trout's still a borderline first rounder, but he's unlikely to get back to stealing bases. I mean, I'm kind of leaving that door open, the stolen base door open for everybody. with the rule changes next year,

but Trout seems less likely because of his health concerns because of the chronic back issue and you've got to worry about a missing time. But not only that, he's no longer a batting average standout because his strikeout rate has spiked the past couple years. So I wouldn't expect much more than a, in a good scenario, a 280 mark from him.

So that serves to bring down his value along with the stolen base struggles. All right, let's move on through to 10 through 12 in the outfield this past season. Cedric Mullins finished 41st overall. George Springer, 45th overall, and Michael Harris, the National League rookie of the year. 56th overall in Roto.

I think both Mullen's and Harris will profile as better Roto category players. George Springer, always been a great head-to-head points player, started running a little bit more this season again. 14 steals, his highest steel output since 2015, when George Springer had 16. steals. You know, Scott, I don't know which outfielders are going to draft because I don't like any of them.

Outside of the first like three or five that we've mentioned, Cedric Mullins, he's still had a fine season. 16 homers, 34 steals. The OPS went from 878 in 2021 to 721 this past year. He was terrible against lefties. There was a point in, I think July and August where he was actually sitting against some lefties, Cedric Mullins was. So that kind of concerns me.

George Springer, he was really good, but injury issues. He hasn't played 140 games since 2018. He had a bone spur removed from his right elbow in the off season. He should be good to go for spring training. And then Michael Harris, super talented dude. I really like him, but the price is sky high already. And there are some warning signs there. Scott, he doesn't walk very much, very high ground ball rate, 56%.

Yeah, you mentioned Julio Rodriguez. because this was high. Michael, Michael Harris' ground ball rate is astronomical. And he was batting against lefties as a rookie.

You know, 238, batting average, 649 OPS. It kind of concerns me. So three more names here. Three more I don't like. Cedricleyn,

George Springer, Michael Harris. I mean, just by virtue of scarcities, you know, outfield is scarce, stolen bases, or thought of his scarce.

Batting average, the fact Michael Harris hit over 300. You know, that's pretty scarce. He's probably going to be a borderline second third round guy in roto leagues. And I may even draft them myself because I do want to get outfielders,

outfield filled early. Outfield filled early. But yeah, I share your concerns for Michael Harris. Obviously, he didn't play a full season, so we didn't get to see the normal ebb and flow. And we did see him slump once in the middle, and he kind of rebounded for a couple weeks. But then it was a very slow finish.

22 with a home run in his final 19 games and that carried over into the postseason, which is only a handful of games for the Braves, but Michael Harris basically did nothing. And, you know, you factor in all the concerning data there. And yeah, maybe he's going to have a bit of a sophomore slump. I think some regression is to be expected. How much, you know, maybe still enough to make him a worth a third round pick. But it's a little hard, he's a little hard to project around.

right now. I'm to the point, and I know we had the 14 stolen bases, but I'm to the point where I think of George Springer is more of a head-to-head point specialist because I'm not even, I'm not sure how much to trust those stolen bases, first of all, especially with how injury prone he is, but also we've seen big power production from him in the past. I'm not sure we're going to see big power production from him anymore. I think it'll be good power, but he's not one of those guys who hits the ball especially hard. So I, I could see, you know, it was hard to tell this past year because he missed so much time with injury. But I could see, I could see him underwhelming as a power hitter moving forward.

And if you don't have speed and you're not going to be batting average standout, you know, George Springer might be kind of middling moving forward. It's not exactly young. And I'm kind of working backwards here. But Cedric Mullins real quick, our first rotomach draft, the 12-teamer, five outfielder, spots to fill, obviously. I got Cedric Mullins in round five. Like, if I can do that, if I can get like a surefire 30 steel guy, or who knows, maybe it'll be 45 steals. In round five, like, that definitely takes the pressure off in round one to get a big steals guy.

Like, that's, that's, I think maybe the reaction to Cedric Mullen's 2022 follow-up, I don't know. I think maybe some people are being too dismissive. the fact is power declined, okay, a lot of hitters power declined. I don't know that, I feel like maybe he's being singled out in that way. And he's still going to be a relevant home run contributor and, of course, a big steals guy. And maybe now is not the time to bail, right? When the Orioles lineup is just about to maybe not be good, but they're going to get better, right? Gunner Henderson, Ellie Rutchman, Anthony Santander, we're about to talk about.

So they do have some pieces. The ADP is, you're right, Scott. It's not terrible so far. 49 through 47 NFBC drafts. Hey, you know, he could be a good name, Cedric Mullins, to pair with Aaron Judge. Take Aaron Judge, you know, top three pick and take Cedric Mullins at the 4-5 turn.

I feel like those guys compliment each other quite well. 13 through 15 in the outfielders. We have Starling Marte 68th overall. Dalton Varsha was 69th overall. We spoke about him on our catcher episode. And Anthony Santander was 71st overall. For Starling Marte. Another solid season, 2.92 batting average, 16 homers, 18 steals.

Did have nine caught stealing, which I don't really like to see as a 34-year-old outfielder. Maybe starting to lose some of that efficiency. But he missed the end of the season with a fractured finger. He underwent core muscle surgery in early November. Eight-week recovery for that. So Starling-Marte should be fine for spring training by January. He should be good to go by then. And then obviously, you know, February, March.

because then we actually get spring training up and running there. Again, some worrisome signs, Scott. 34-year-old outfielder, 18 for 27 on the steals, and not nearly as aggressive as he was the year before. His sprint speed also dropped down to 183rd in baseball, 68th percentile. So just some warning signs. I think overall I still kind of like Starling Marte this year. And Anthony Santander, he just stayed healthy, Scott.

It was a career year across the board. he finally stayed healthy for 152 games. He hit 240, 33 homers, 89 RBI. He hits the ball relatively hard. He puts it in the air. His barrel rate is pretty good. It's just not a very sexy picks guy, you know, Santander. Lower batting average, good power.

He's kind of like a Kyle Schwerber light. What do you think about Santander and Starling Marte? Santander, I think, you know, Kyle Schwerber might be setting the bar too high. I think of them in that Hunter Renfro tier, someone who we haven't mentioned here. But I think that's the sort of contribution, Anthony Santander could make in fantasy, by the way. Hunter Renfro got traded since our last podcast, right?

Or did you record one after that without me? We are going to talk about that just a bit. Yeah. But anyway, Santander, like I prefer Renfro because Santander does have that injury history. but if he's healthy, he should contribute home runs at a good rate, and not a whole lot else. The one I really want to talk about here is Starling Marte, because I think he's kind of, I think he's going to be a pretty divisive player. He is getting old.

His best attribute has been speed at a time when that's going to become less important, and at a time when he wasn't as good as it when we last saw him. what is he bringing to the table? Well, still a good batting average, probably. It's not a zero for power, but if he's not going to be that standout and stolen bases anymore, and maybe he will be,

but even if he is, he's missed at least a quarter of the past couple seasons with injury and just with the age creeping up on him. I have a hard time getting motivated to take him. I would definitely prefer somebody like Cedric Mullins, who I think I can count on more for those stolen bases,

even if he might be a great out less and batting average. I just don't want to sink an early round pick in a guy whose numbers decline even more, which is possible in Marte's case, and who misses a big chunk of the season, which also seems possible in his case. I don't think we're at a point anymore with the way the league landscape is evolving,

the way the distribution of stats is changing, that the reward is worth the risk for Starling Marte. I think that's becoming not the case anymore. Stalling Marte has not hit 140 games played in a season since 2018, so much like George Springer does usually miss about a quarter of the seasons, as you mentioned, Scott. But, you know, if he can play 130, 140, I still think he could be a 2020 bat, which is obviously very useful. And the Mets lineup is very good. So I like Marte, but I agree. He's probably going to be a pretty polarizing player this upcoming season.

Let's take a break here and we'll come back with some rankings and we'll talk about some of those bigger names. Ronald LeCuno, Juan Soto, we haven't talked about yet. But if you want to support your favorite fantasy baseball podcast, you could do that by heading over to the CBS Sports Store where we have FBT shirts, hoodies, sweatpants, hats, pine glasses, and much more. To search Fantasy Baseball today, CBS Sports Store on the Google Machine

or I just realized I didn't have this pulled up, but now I do. If you're watching us live on YouTube, I've got a QR code right here in the top rights corner. Scott is modeling it right now. I do appreciate that. Being Aunt Vana here. Yes, so pull out your phone, take a picture of that. That'll bring you right to the CBS Sports Store.

And then we have a great deal going on as well. Where through Wednesday, November 30th, so for the next two days after you're listening to this, you can use the promo code Cyber at checkout for 30% off your purchase. Again, this deal is only available. through Wednesday, November 30th, promo code Cyber for 30% off whatever you would like to get at the CBS Sports Store. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. The news and notes. Let's talk about Bryce Harper, Scotty, who did indeed undergo Tommy John surgery, which we already knew.

We talked about that recently. We knew he was having surgery. We didn't know that it was Tommy John. But the Phillies have indicated he could potentially miss the entire first half of the season. I think it's likely that he could be back. back in June, in June at some point, and, you know, just DH, and then they'll bring them along slowly. He'll start playing the outfield later on in the season. But I think if you want to play it safe, you should probably expect, you know, mid to late June at the earliest for

Bryce Harper as of now. What do you think? Yeah. I mean, that's, we went deep into it before when there was a prospect of Tommy John surgery. We knew he was having surgery of some kind, and I kind of figured it would go this way. And that's the timetable we laid out then. You know, mid-June is probably the best case scenario. Though they did say he could be hitting competitively, like in games as early as mid-May. Like that must be the most extreme optimistic outcome because they also said, you know, hopefully he'll be back before the All-Star break.

So, yeah, we'll take the middle ground there as mid-June as the hopeful outcome for Harper. and if he ends up missing time into July, it wouldn't surprise me. So that really tanks his value, obviously. And as I said at the time, you know, apparently I'm comparing everybody to Hunter Renfro today. That's about the point where I would take Bryce Harper if he's projected to miss about half the season, which would be outside the top 100 players overall. And I feel inclined to stick with that. And, you know, if we're talking to 15-team league,

particularly 15-team league without IL spots, like NFBC, for instance, maybe even lower than that because, you know, the replacement player, while Harper's out, isn't going to be as good. And obviously, you have to find a way to stash them on your bench for months. Well, I'm happy you brought that up, Scott, because there have been nine NFBC drafts over the past week. That's knowing the information about Bryce Harper, and his ADP is 156 during that time.

So that is the 133. 13th-ish round in a 12-team league, and that's the 11th round in a 15-teamers. So he's going pretty late. Early steamer projections have Bryce Harper for 79 games played this upcoming season. Hunter Renfro was traded to the Angels in exchange for Jansen Junk, Elvis Pugero, and Adam Seminaris. And this past season, Renfro hit 255 with 29 homers and an 807 OPS in 125 games. and he would have hit 31 games if he played 31 homers rather

if he played all of his games in Angel Stadium, Scott. So I don't really have a problem with this move in case people are wondering it's a negative park shift it's actually a completely neutral park shift for a right-handed batter power-wise over the past three seasons.

So I kind of like this move for Hunter. As much as I've been compared during players to Renfro in a disparaging way in this podcast, I actually think I'm one of the people one of the fantasy personalities who appreciates Hunter Renfro the most.

I think he's been for the past couple years extremely underrated. I mean, that's 31 home runs if he played all his games at Angel Stadium last year. And that's over just 125 games because he missed that time with entry. I mean, he was on pace for his best season ever, and that was following up,

his actual best season ever. So Angel Stadium, the past couple years, It's actually played more favorably than what is what is where the Brewers play now. I think it's American family field. I think that's right. It'll always be Miller Park to me, free endorsement for Miller. But yeah, he should be he should be a reliable source of power in the middle rounds at a time when reliable sources of power are becoming harder to find. And so I'll probably have a lot of Hunter Renfro.

I have absolutely no problem with that. You get them as your outfield three, something like that. I like it for Hunter Renfro. On the other side, Scott, who do you think benefits for the Brewers? Now the Hunter Renfro is gone. You know, obviously plays some outfield, a little bit of DH as well. They've got Garrett Mitchell. They have Estuary Ruiz, who we know stole a bunch of bases in the minors last year.

They've got Sal Freelick, who looks like he's on the way. Keston Hiyero could pick up some playing time at DH. John Singleton, dare I say, is currently penciled in as their. DH on roster resource. So what do you think? That's a fun name. Yeah. Former Astros prospect, if you don't know, walks a ton.

But 31 years old now. Nando's ears are probably ringing somewhere right now because he loves John Seel. I mean, I used to love him back in the day, but it's been a hot minute. Yeah, I mean, there's a good chance it's not on the roster. But if they stick with what they have, I think Garrett Mitchell, you know, there was a chance he was going to get a good amount of playing time, but it becomes certain.

And, yeah, I was kind of surprised we didn't see Sal Freelick called up at the end of last year, especially with the Brewers fighting for a playoff spot. I think he's better than Mitchell. I think he's, you know, Stephen Kwan's kind of an extreme example, but I think Sal Freelick has the same strengths

as a Stephen Kwan. I don't know that it'll get all the way there, but that's that's kind of the the box he fits into and I think I think that's going to be more interesting for fantasy purposes than Garrett Mitchell unless Garrett Mitchell gets his like 80th percentile outcome and becomes like a a big time base dealer who also hits pretty well I think the Stephen Kwan comp or call out rather for South Relic is perfectly fine I mean he was a former 15th overall pick first rounder back in 2021 and this past season he hit three 331, 11 homers, 24 steals, with only 63 strikeouts and 119 games in the minors. So there is a lot to like about South Relic. If you're drafting early in some of these deeper leagues, definitely looking to take a shot on South Freelick later on. Mike Clevenger signed with the White Sox on a one-year $8 million deal,

and there were some okay moments this past year, first season back from Tommy John surgery. But overall, it wasn't great for Mike Clevenger. He had a 4.33 ERA, 1.20 whip. 7.2K per 9, 10.6% swinging strike rate. Fastball velocity was down nearly two miles per hour from the last time we saw him in 2020. Ethan Katz has done some good work for the White Sox.

He obviously got G. Alito's career back on track and Dylan Cease has turned into a top three Sion contender. So we'll see, Scott. I guess cautiously optimistic in deeper leagues on Mike Clevenger. Yeah, I'm not optimistic. I think, because you've got to remember

second Tommy John surgery. This is the first year back from his second Tommy John surgery, and that is a much tougher hill to climb. We saw the velocity down. We saw the effectiveness down, swinging strike rate. I think he's a back-end guy now, and, you know, the White Sox could use a back-end guy, but could we in fantasy?

Not so much. All right, fair enough. Let's move on to Michael Kidfordo, who remains engaged in hitting and throwing programs and isn't expected to face any restrictions. restrictions for spring training, looking to land a multi-year deal. We'll see if it happens. Mike Miguel Cabrera plans to retire after the 2023 season where he will make $32 million.

Good for you, Miguel Cabrera. Future First Ballot Hall of Famer, indeed. Carlos Santana signed a one year $6.7 million deal with the pirates, and they also acquired G. Man Choy and Lewin Diaz. So, who's two misfits of First Baseman and DH for? for the Pittsburgh Pirates. You know, Carlos Santana is at that point in his career where the pirates start to look like a good option,

which is not a ringing endorsement for him. You know, I would have to confirm this. I don't know who said. I saw it somewhere on Twitter, but yeah, it's true, actually. MLB trade rumors tweeted out. The Pirates signing Carlos Santana to a near $7 million deal

is their largest free agent deal, since 2016. Yeah. Think about that. Think about that. I think it isn't that, wasn't that Francisco Liriano, three for 39? Or maybe it was someone, maybe that even came before. But I think that might be the largest free agent deal they've ever handed out.

I'm just like recklessly throwing out these superlatives when I only, I don't know for sure that they're correct. But yeah, they have not been, they have not been spenders, that's for sure. That is just a really, really bad look for the game of baseball, and I don't know that it's going to change anytime soon, Scott. Let's quickly run through some early 2023 outfield rankings, and we'll start with the top six that you have here, including Aaron Judge, no surprise there, Mookiee, Julio Rodriguez, Ronald de Cunia, Yordaunha,

Yordaun Arvarez, and Juan Soto. Let's talk about Ronald de Cunia, his first year back from torn ACL. It was a disappointing one, Scott. He had 266 with 15 homers, 29 steals actually ran way more than we thought, and it was the power that took a huge step back. He hit more ground balls, his home run to fly ball ratio obviously is not where we wanted it to be.

Just did not look healthy, and I don't think he could have generated power in the air, Scott. That's what I was noticing for Ronald Ocuna. This is really just a bet on a young player who, one more year removed, going to be healthy next year, and hopefully can get back to those elite, elite level numbers. Yeah, that's the hope.

And there isn't a lot to back up that hope other than, okay, well, we all know who Ronald DeCunia was before the knee injury. And he was taking time off periodically throughout 2022 to rest that knee. So, you know, it wasn't quite 100%. I think it's a pretty good hope. I mean, I'd still take Ronald de Cunia in round one. I believe I have him sixth overall. just behind Julio Rodriguez.

But if not for that uncertainty, you know, Ronald de Kuna would be the most likely choice to go one overall. I mean, we've seen him come close to 40-40 production before. The hope is he gets back to that, but it's not a guarantee. And he burned a lot of people this past season who invested a first round pick in him even knowing he'd miss about a month of the year. From one player who burned you to another, Juan Soto, who you have ranked as your sixth outfielder

heading into next season. It was quite a disaster, Scott. 242 batting average, 27 homers is fine, six steals, 62 RBI. That's a really big letdown for Juan Soto as well. It was a big year for Soto where traded from the nationals to the Padres. I think sometimes we get lost, Scott, in the human element of the game where he's hearing these trade rumors all year. He's obviously changing locations, moving.

to the other side of the country. I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but obviously there was a lot going on for Juan Soto. There was stuff that wasn't working well. The batted ball data, he changed some things. It looks like he was selling out to try and hit fly balls. That's not really something he's ever done before.

He also struggled against lefties a lot, something he also has never done ever before. I'm looking at the player who, through 2021, he had 2,000 plate appearances, Scott, where he hit 3.0.1. with a 981 OPS. I'm just going to blindly hope that he gets back to doing those types of things. Yeah, me too.

I mean, that's, I'm maybe more so, right? Because you rank, are you taking Juan Soto in the first round? To me, it's... I think he's a borderline first round pick. Yeah, I think he's a late first rounder. I would take Kyle Tucker over him myself, but... I think I have him eighth overall Soto. Ahead of Kyle Tucker.

And, yeah, let's not lose sight of the fact that entering... this past season, Juan Soto, like, he was, everybody's choice is this is the best hitter in baseball now. Yep. So, you know, we can't lose sight of that. I mean, he was on a historic pace. We had never really seen a hitter do what he had done

over this first few years of his career. I mean, he's the best on-base guy since, like, Barry Bonds. I mean, who's the best on-base guy ever? And that continued. He still walked at an incredible rate. It's why Juan Soto, as underwhelming as his season was, he was still the sixth best outfielder in points leagues. And so it's an easy call to take him in that format

because, you know, the walks are going to, in fact, he might be the number two or number three overall pick in that format if we're expecting the hitting to improve. And I do expect the hitting to improve. He's still, like, his stack has pages still lit up like a Christmas tree, still hit the ball very hard. He did put it on the ground too often. but he's put it on the ground more often in the past.

That's been a long-standing issue for Juan Soto, and it never impacted his production until last year. So I just think the combination of a slow start, and then when he was starting to turn it around, he got traded, and there was a lot of pressure to come with that trade. I mean, it was like the biggest return ever in a trade. So it was just a weird season for Juan Soto, but given, he just turned 24 in the off season.

It's crazy. There's no reason to think he's declining or anything like that. I think he's going to bounce back with monster production, the kind that we've gotten accustomed to seeing from him prior to this year. You know, explaining it the way you just did, Scott, it reminds me a lot of a player signing a mega deal with a new team, and they struggle that first year of the contract, right? And we've seen that time and time again.

Francisco Lindor, I guess technically he was traded and then signed an extension, but struggle with the Mets his first year, Javier Baez his past season struggled big time with the Tigers. Bryce Harper is first year with the Phillies. These things happen. So it wouldn't not surprise me if Juan Soto just goes back to being Juan Soto this year. 7 through 12 in the outfield ranks we have Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout, Michael Harris, Kyle Schwerber, Luis Robert, and Stalling Marte.

Luis Robert is the name we haven't mentioned yet. And it was a disappointing year, Scott. 284 batting average, 12 homers, 11 steals, and only 98 games played. he has struggled big time to stay on the field so far in his brief MLB career. The power definitely tanked and it took a step back. But the one thing I love, Scott, we didn't know if it would remain his strikeout rate. In 2021, he got it all the way down to 20%. This past year, it was below 20%.

I think if Luis Robert can stay on the field, which again is a big if, I still think that there is pretty big upside for him. Yeah, there's definitely first round potential for Luis Robert. Now that we can confidently project him to help in batting average because that strikeout rate has held, those gains have held the past couple years. So if we know he's going to help in that category, of course, we see the kind of raw power he has. We know he can run and hopefully he'll get back to doing that more since the rules are going to make it easier to steal bases.

the big question, I think, for Louise Robert and the reason why we can't draft him on that first round potential is because he has yet to play even 100 games in a season. Now, it's only been three seasons in the first was a 60-game season. So, you know, we only have so much history of him getting hurt, but he got hurt a lot in the minors, too, you know? And he's missed huge chunks of the past two. season.

Best case scenario, Luis Robert is a steal. Worst case scenario. And I think maybe most likely scenarios you end up drafting him a little too early because of the dumb amount of time he misses. And you know what? I used to say this about Aaron Judge too.

Luis Robert, he is a physical freak. Like, this guy is built. He's really strong. And, you know, for Judge back in the day, it seemed like he would always wind up pulling something or, you know, he was swinging too hard. It's like, guys as big are almost not meant to be baseball players. So I, it's not, it's not a great sport for really muscular dudes.

Yeah. So we would, we would be great at it, Scott. I mean, you have to be strong, just not muscular. Right. Yeah. You got to have that skinny guy strength or that big boy strength. And we have neither. No, no, we certainly do not.

Luis Robert, get on that Aaron Judge yoga routine that he's been using, which has magically helped him stay healthy the past two seasons. 13 through 18, in the rankings, we have Randy and Rosa Raina, Cedric Mullins, Dalton Varsho, Teasca Hernandez, Adolius Garcia, and George Springer. We spoke about all these names earlier. Dalton Varsho currently being thrown around in trade rumors, so we'll see what happens with that. It does seem, is this a little low for Adolius-Garcia?

Scott? You know, he's done it two years in a row now, just finished as a top six outfielder this past season. It seems a touch low. Yeah, so here's my gripe about Adolius Garcia, and it's going to sound a little like Bobby Witt, except in Bobby Witt's case, there's the hope that there's still this untapped upside,

him being as young as he is, him being off the pedigree that he is. It's not the case for Adolese-Carsie. He's already 29. So he's not getting better. than this in all likelihood. And he was a 300 on base guy. He was a 286 on base guy in 2021.

Bad on base guy. How the heck did he score 88 runs? I don't know. It's a really fluky thing. And, you know, he's a capable center fielder, but he's not a standout. And in fact, by the end of the year, he was playing more right field.

So it's not like, it's not like his defense. I'm mostly just basing this on defensive war and maybe somebody will find some have some other stat that contradicts this, but it doesn't... I feel like he's a good defender. I could be making that up. I know he has a...

I know he has a cannon for an arm. Yeah. Okay. Maybe I'll cool it with that. But I don't think he's such a good defender that if he struggles, if he's hitting like 220, which is...

With as much as he strikes out seems possible, and you know he's... his on-base percentage is going to be just horrendous if that's the case. I could see him losing playing time. The Rangers have a lot of young guys they're working in and more to come.

I could see it happening. And I do think natural regression is coming in RBI and especially runs scored. So he's going to take a step back. The other issue, the other reason I haven't ranked as low as 16th is because, like, who do I drop behind him? I mean, if the numbers just hold up completely,

I guess Adolice Garcia is in the same range as Cedric Mullins and Randy a Rosarena. Doesn't he have more upside than Starling Marte at this point, Scott? I don't think so. He has more power upside. He just had more steals. Yeah, but we know Starling...

Like, if we're talking upside, I'm not saying he can't beat Starling Marte's steals total this year, but Starling Marte's been 40 steel. guy before. Garcia's not doing that. And we know Starling Marte is going to beat him by like 50 points in batting average at least. So there's

a health concern there, but I'd rather have Marte. And I don't even really want Marte that much. I think part of it is just I'm putting him at the, I'm putting Adolese Garcia at the back end of a tier because if somebody else wants to take him higher in that tier,

I'm fine with it. I think there are more risk factors for him. You know, I've got to do more research on Adoles Garcia, but I'm kind of feeling it. Kind of feeling it. Him and Corey Seeger. I guess I got to break out the Rangers head again, Scott, because those are two that I've identified.

I got to bring out the Santa hat, though. Yeah. You're right. You're right. I'll save the Rangers hat. January. I'll save the Rangers have for January 1st. You're right.

We'll wait for the calendars to change over. 19 through 24 in the outfield ranks, and this is kind of where we'll put a bow on things here. Eloy Jimenez, Byron Baxter, Brian Reynolds, Corbin Carroll, John Carlos, and Chris Bryant. Think about the names I just read and how many games they've played

this past season or even recently, right? And this is what I wanted to get at when we started the show. Eloy Jimenez has yet to play more than 122 games. Byron Buxton has only played 100 games once in his career that was back in 2017. John Carlos Stanton hasn't played 140 since 2018. Chris Bryant just played 42 games this past season. other names that we mentioned earlier.

George Springer missed his time routinely. Starling Marte has missed time in the past. Luis Robert misses time. Mike Trout misses time. You know, Aaron Judge has missed time in the past. I don't know that that's going to happen again. He stayed healthy for two years in row. But again, we're only 24 outfielers in,

and a lot of these guys are probably going to miss time. So just keep that in mind. It's a rough position. There is a drop-off here, yes. But this isn't even the biggest drop-off. A big drop-off is coming soon after this. you know, if I could just read. So Brian, I have 24th here.

Continuing Tyler O'Neill, Christian Yelich, Stephen Kwan, Hunter Renfro, Anthony Santander, Taylor Ward. That takes us through 30. And after that is where it just drops off a cliff. And it's like, I don't want any more outfielders. But five outfielder league, I have to draft some. So what I'm saying is as unappealing as this 22 through. or I'm sorry, 19 through 24 group might look.

It's still probably a group, for me, I'm going to be eager to draft from it. Like Brian Reynolds, who is the one who the most durable of this group, the one who you don't really have to worry about in missing time, I'm going to have a ton of Brian Reynolds. I know the batting average suffered, and I know he played for the Pirates or the runs and RBI suffered, which wasn't the case in 2021 for what it's worth. He had plenty of both that year,

So I don't know what changed with the pirates. Maybe it was just really good luck in 2021, really bad luck in 2020. I don't know. But he continued to hit for power in 2022. I'm not sure if I said those years, right? He continued to hit for power in 2022 after, even with the changes to the ball, even when he seemed like a candidate to maybe lose those power gains and he didn't. So I think that's really encouraging.

He also has 95th percentile sprint. speed does Brian Reynolds never been a big day stealer but that could be changing for him he seems like somebody who could really benefit from the rule changes and suddenly become a contributor in that category and we've seen him hit for a high average in the past he doesn't strike out a lot he hits a lot of line drives i could see brian reynolds becoming the complete package in a best case scenario and you don't have to worry about a missing time so i before the drop off he's going to be a guy i'm taking a lot in the outfield gosh i have a lot i want to say about all these guys.

I think Aloi Jimenez, even though he has durability problems like Luis Robert, I was really encouraged, by the way, he came back from injury this year, and I'm back to feeling confident he can be a 290-hitting 30-homer guy

if he can stay healthy. Big if. But obviously, that would be really valuable at this point if he can. Byron Buxton, of course, big if with the health there as well. Corby, Corbyn Carroll.

in leagues with really savvy people is probably going to get drafted a lot higher than this because of the top prospect pedigree, the belief he's going to be a big base dealer. I don't think he needs to be. I feel like upside-wise, you know, Aloy Jimenez, Byron Bucks,

and they have plenty of upside too. So I just, I don't know that there's a need to reach for Corbyn earlier than this 22nd. and I wanted to say for John Carlos Stanton he still hits the ball incredibly hard his best case scenario still has him among the home run leaders John Carlos Stanton hit 166

over the final four months of the season that was after his first IL stent so maybe he was never quite healthy after that but that is really bad and yet I'm still including them among the good outfielders, which is kind of a statement on the whole position. And he did underperform. 211 batting average 240XBA, 462 slug, 477 expected slugs.

So it seems like there was some bad luck going on for John Carlos Stanton as well. Again, like when you get to this point, you probably want them as your third outfielder. So if that's the case, you need two of the top 20. or so to ensure that. I was talking with one of my buddies today, Scott, and I think trying to get three outfielder's in the top 10 rounds this year, if you play in a five outfielder league, should be a priority for you.

Yeah, I mean, I'm going to go beyond that, I think. Something's going to have to suffer because of that, probably first base. I'm probably going to be, I'm probably just ignoring all early round first baseman, to be honest. Because, you know, I'm prioritizing third base early and second base early. Outfield's right up there. And, you know, I'm waiting a long time. for starting pitcher.

So, starting pitcher and first base are the positions I'm waiting at this year. And shortstop, I guess, too, just because, like, I'm a little more willing to take an early round shortstop, but it'd have to be a good value. All right, we're going to wrap there for a festive, Scott White. I am Frank Stamphill. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again on Wednesday night and in your audio feeds on Thursday morning. Bye-bye.