Fantasy Baseball Today - Outfield Tiers! Strategy, ADP and Targets (2/1 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2023

Let's start with the unmatched outfield tier (3:45). Will Juan Soto get back on track? ... Next up is the elite tier (14:20). Is Kyle Schwarber worth a fourth-round pick? ... You want two outfielders by the end of the near-elite tier (19:18). What's the concern with Starling Marte? ... You can find power in the next-best things tier (29:35). Can Taylor Ward break out? ... News (40:26): Grayson Rodriguez is expected to be in the Orioles Opening Day rotation. ... Will Nick Castellanos bounce back (53:47)? ... What should we expect from Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida (55:07)?  Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Welcome in to Outfield Tears. Welcome to February. And welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today.

I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. We'll get to those outfield tiers, plus some interesting news. notes later on in the podcast. You know, I like looking at Scott's face right after I do my intro because he kind of gives a, all right, that was pretty good. Or most times, let's be like, eh, you know, that was all right. And today was he was just like, eh, all right. That was fine. This is, this is the best acting I can do. This is, this is the reacting to you giving the intro is like the most acting I do on my job. So, you know, I like to work on the facial expressions. I'm not exactly sure.

So the little head tilt I did, I'm not exactly sure what exciting news you're referring to. So I'm interested just like the audience in hearing what that is. Yeah, I've got some Grayson Rodriguez news that came out over the weekend, some Francisco Alvarez. So some prospect notes, which are some interesting and some deeper league signings, Josh Harrison, all that fun stuff, Scotty. Sometimes I just scratch my nose. Chris, how you doing? How was Warzone? Third place right before the show.

So it's probably not a good idea to play video games, especially like a stressful competitive video game. Because like when it gets down to that final circle, I'm just a mess. Like I am completely useless. I'm like sweating. I'm breathing. It's it's probably I'm hyped.

I'm not going to sleep for hours. That's exactly how I feel watching every New York Knicks game ever. And then I come on here and most of the time I'm angry because it's the Nix. They're not very good. Yeah, that makes sense. But alas, Let's talk about outfield position. And Scottie, a theme that will come up multiple times

is how quickly outfield things out this season, especially in those five outfielder leagues. Yeah. Just when you tweeted out what we were talking about, what we're going to be talking about on the show today for people who want to join us live on YouTube. People were responding with a lot of jiffs of things falling off cliffs, basically.

So they knew where we were going. Yeah. And it makes sense. With that, let's just jump right into the tier, Scotty. Lots of names to talk about, lots of tiers to talk about. And we'll start with the unmatched tier, which is basically the first two rounds of ADP, and it includes Aaron Judge,

Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Mukhi Betts, Yordon Alvarez, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, and Mike Trout. Mike Trout is actually one tier lower in a Categories League because... In a points league. I'm sorry, in a Categor's league, you're right. Yeah, he's higher in points.

Scotty, Scottie. Yeah, because he doesn't run anymore. That's basically it. So that's the downside to Trout in a Categories League. Still really good plate discipline for those who are playing points. And and not as, not reliably a source of, you know, like a plus plus source of batting, average like he used to be because the strikeout rates have gone up. It's true. I'm pretty sure he still hit like 283 last year.

That's really good, Scott. So I don't want to sell Mike Trout's batting average short. He's certainly not a. a negative. He may not be like a plus, plus, but he's probably going to be more helpful than harmful. Yeah, let's just give him one plus. I think that's fair for Mike Trout. The order of these players basically completely changes based on the format. So we each have Judge Acuna and Julio Rodriguez in our top three in Rodo in some order. I know Chris has Acuna first overall in that format. Then in head-to-head points, Scott and I have Judge Betts and Alvarez as I, as I

our top three. Chris has Judge Betts and Acuna. So Chris, I mean, these are minuscule differences, but depending on the format, they actually matter where these guys are going to go in the first two rounds of those drafts. Yeah, I think early on Ronald Acuna was someone who was definitely a lot better in Roto. I think he's bridged that gap. You know, you take a look at specifically the two years prior to last year. He was walking a ton, 18 percent, 19 percent in 2020, 14 percent in 2021. Last year, it fell to 10%. That's still an above average walk rate. And he doesn't really strike out all that much anymore. 24% last season is perfectly fine. That's a little higher than average. So I think he's someone who's really closed the gap between his Roto and his head-to-head

value. And I think that's probably an underrated aspect of his game is the plate discipline. I think the two players listeners would want to hear most about from this tier are Juan Soto and Mike Trout. We spoke a little bit about Trout, but let's talk a little bit more. Soto last year, a career low 242 batting average, just 62 RBI, sold out for fly balls, didn't hit the ball as hard. But Scott, before 2022, before last season, Juan Soto's 150 game average was 31 homers, 108 runs, 100 RBI, 10 steals, all while hitting 301. And I have a feeling that's why he's still going, you know, in the first round, is just that track record before last season. Yeah, yeah. I mean, at this point last year, he was the consensus choice for best hitter in the game as a 23-year-old who had been doing historic things from the day he was called up.

You try and look at comparables for Juan Soto's career through this age, and it's a very, very, very short list of all-time crates. All-time credits, exactly. I can't exactly explain what went wrong for him last year, but I don't see like any real evidence of skills decline. Even if I did, I'd be like, oh, well, he must have been nursing an injury or something because it just wouldn't make sense for him to drop off that much at this age. But I don't see much evidence of that at all. I mean, the stat cast page is still all lit up in red.

His plate discipline was still amazing like it's always been, which is why it's pretty easy to rank him. Second, you say, I have him in head-to-head points leagues? I think you have bets and Alvarez in your top three. Okay. You could certainly make the case to rank Soto that high because as disappointing as he was, that amazing walk-to-strikeout rate,

he was still basically first-round material in points leagues last year. You know what the comp is? What? 2015, Bryce Harper hit 330 with an 1109 OPS. 2016, he hit 243 with 24 homers and 814 OPS. 2017, he only played 111 games, but he was going to win his second MVP award. He was hitting 319 with 29 homers and 1,08 OPS. That's actually won Soto's most comparable player, according to baseball reference,

through his age 23 or age 24 season, which I find very interesting, given the, the Nationals combination there. Also, Frank Robinson, another one, his second most comparable player, had 290, 322, 269, 311 in his first four seasons. It's batting every. Like, this kind of thing can happen. And when you're talking about a player who's as good as these guys

have been as young as they are, both Harper and Frank Robinson, like Wonsodo, were major league regulars at the age of 20, you bet on them bouncing. bouncing back. Like Scott said, even if there was some red flag in Juan Soto's numbers, I would probably just write it off. We saw it with Mookie Betts, you know, at certain points early on his career where like he just had a down year, but he always bounced back. You just, there's no reason to think Juan Soto won't bounce back. Okay. So as disappointing as he was last year, because he walked 39 times more than he's. struck out. He was still the sixth best outfielder in points leagues. Yeah, yeah, that's incredible. I mean, look, in a roto league, he's not going to run as much as others, but the batting average could still be amazing if he gets back to the player we saw before last season. Again, that is Juan Soto.

Real quick on Mike Trout, the ADP right around 22. Are you guys good with that price tag? Yay, nay. It's a great price tag. Yeah. I'm happy to take him there. I mean, and it makes it easier because outfield is because of that drop-off that we'll eventually get to here and just the necessity to fill that position early in drafts, which is something I've never really endorsed before, particularly in three outfielder leagues, but I would say even in three outfielder leagues. Like it gets so bad, so fast that you'd rather take care of it early if you're not having to overpay drastically to do so. And something you could probably figure out by now if you've listened to

all the position tier podcast is there is more emphasis on position scarcity than ever before. I'm feeling it more than ever before. You want to get a second basement early. You want to get third base. You want to get outfield. If you're playing a deeper league, you're probably going to miss out on something. So keep that in mind. You can't fill everything early on in your drafts.

But these are the things that are priorities. I would say the ideal approach for me, regardless of what the scoring format is. can go outfield, third base, second base with my first three picks. I haven't succeeded in doing that yet in a mock draft, but that is what I'm going to be aiming to do in every draft. And I would say, you know, it's certainly been a long time since position scarcity has been this important. But as somebody who's done this 15 years or whatever now,

like it used to be this important. And I would say it's not like, it's not a, as bad as it was in like 2010, you know, back when like Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tolodzky were like the only good shortstop. You know, yeah,

we, there are like, you know, second base is bad, but there are more than a couple of guys. Like that, that's the way things used to be. But what,

one other thing I would say with regards to this conversation is it's not just a positional scarcity thing for me. It's also kind of a positional surplus thing, especially at shortstop. The mock drafts that we've done so far, I've done like, three or four now. It's just like every point, every time in the draft, like no matter what point you are,

once it's like the past, past the fifth round, like three of my top five players are short stops. And that's true for like most of the draft. And so one thing that I've discovered is when I fill that shortstop position early, not that it's a bad thing. There's a lot of good short stops. It's just there are going to be a lot of situations where you're going to pass up the best player on your board if you fill that position. So that's one other thing.

I've noticed. It's just, it's not just that third base and second base are very shallow. It's shortstop especially is very, very deep. I felt that yesterday too. And the mock draft that we did, I had the fifth pick. Trade Turner felt to me. I took him, but I felt like I, you know, I was reaching for other positions. I don't always know that was a points map draft too, right? Head tech. No, it was. It was okay. Categories. Oh, so still no corner infield. Yeah. I mean, I ended up with a shortstop in a utility spot because, uh, you know, I waited a long time to Carlos

Correa on round eight. It was between him and Willie Adamas. Thomas was still there two rounds later, so I just took him as my utility player. But it's, you know, Chris bringing up short stuff, this is actually a good time because we already did the shortstop tiers podcast and remember I was kind of struggling

with, okay, I have Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogart's in a higher tier than Correa and Adamas. And, you know, that seemed like it was over-emphasizing their worth relative to those guys. And I did rearrange it after the podcast and came up with something I'm satisfied with.

So basically you got Trey Turner in the unmatched tier at the top. Then Fernando Tatis, Bobauchette, Bobby Witt, Francisco Lindor. Corey Seeger part of that tier in Points Leagues. In Roto, he drops to a lower tier with O'Neill Cruz, just a two-man tier there in five-by-five categories, leagues of Seeger and O'Neill Cruz. and then after that, the fourth tier. What would be the 37 players? Yeah.

Then you got Swanson there. You got Bogarts there. You got Tommy Edmund, Carlos Correa, Franco, a couple other guys. Like a really big tier. And that's probably where I'm going to be drafting my shortstop most often. All right. And as always, you could find Scott's tiers live on the site, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball.

Let's get back to the outfield tiers. And the elite tier includes ADP from 33 through 50. That's rounds three through five and the players are Michael Harris Kyle Schwerber Luis Robert Randy a Roserana and Cedric Mullins Robert a Rose Arena and Mullins are one tier lower in a head-to-head points league because Robert and a Rose Arena don't walk very much and Mullins is drafted mostly for his speed at this point Ideally Scott I think it's a really annoying position for those format specialists a lot of little little marks in the tiers. Oh, I noticed too, because as I was going through these tiers,

all I kept thinking to myself is these changed completely, depending on the format that you're playing in. And something that I wanted to highlight up top here is, you know, Kyle Sorber has an ADP in the fourth round right now. I have no problem drafting him in the fourth round of a head-to-head points league. He still walks a lot, even with the lower batting average. He hits a ton of home runs. Those things are conducive to being a really useful player in head-to-head points.

In Roto, I'm probably going to lean towards one of these other, you know, base Steelers, a Rosarena, a Luis Robber, a Cedric Mullins. You know, it's not a knock on Schwerber. He's still a useful player. But that was one thing that stood out to me, Scott, is much more likely to take Schwerber in the fourth round of a points league versus in a Roto or Categories League. I don't agree.

Like, if we're just doing pure rankings, I still rank Schwerber ahead of the stolen base trio there, in part because I think the relative value of home runs versus stolen basis is about to change. It already did change some last year with home runs becoming scarcer. But I think it's going to change even more this year with stolen bases becoming more common. I think what I want to emphasize with this tier is that Michael Harris is a part of this tier with Schwerber and Louise Robert and Randy or Rosa Rana rather than being in the previous tier, you know, with like Kyle Tucker. And I could see people who buy, who just

are looking at Michael Harris's numbers, taking them at face value. I could see the justification for putting him in that higher tier. But one way I kind of like to game the tiers is players, you know, we talked about Michael Harris as one of my busts. Players I'm not as confident in putting them a tier lower, having them lead off a tier rather than finish up a tier. Because in theory, the players at the end of the tier are the ones I'm going to be drafting most often.

And for what it's worth God, I think you've got it right. But, you know, as we highlighted yesterday, I've got Michael Harris as a bus too. So I don't know, maybe I'm just biased. I did find ranking a Rosarena, Robert Mullins, to be difficult. Just differentiating between those three outfielders. Chris, you know, was the same thing happened for you when ranking them.

Do you have a favorite of that group? A Roserina, Robert, and Mullins. I do give a Roserena a slight edge. And it's, I mean, they're, I think they're 10, 11. 12 for me. So it's not really much of a distinction there in a roto league. But, you know, I do think like all three of them, there are questions about the hit tool. Mullins, it's mostly the quality of contact. But a Rosarena, having done it two years in a row, not having the injury concerns that Robert has. I think Robert probably has the most upside. I don't think that's really a

shocking thing to say. But, you know, we've seen one, the production is just fluctuated and two, he's just really struggled to stay healthy. And so that's enough to give a Roserina a little bit of an edge there in my eyes. You know, he's someone that like last year, I think we were all down on. And he was really quite good. And he's pretty consistently across parts of four major league seasons now beat his underlying numbers. His expected woe before his career 307.

Last two seasons, it was 301 and 304. His actual woe before his career is 347, 336 over the last two years, 336, 350 over the last two seasons. So there's something about. Randy or Rose Arena, his ability to hit the ball to all fields, which is, I think, an underrated part of his game, the fact that he is very fast. He does hit a decent amount of line drives, hits a good amount of ground balls. He's someone who does seem well situated to continue to bat above his weight. And, you know, the stolen bases are really nice. So I do give him a bit

of an edge there. Last point on Cedric Mullins that I wanted to make back to back 30 steel seasons for Cedric Mullins, and I think that he is the perfect player to pair with Mike Trout. So say you get Trey Turner or Jose Ramirez, a non-out fielder in round one. You get Trout, you know, middle to late round two. Maybe you take a pitcher in round three. Cedric Mullins comes back to you. I just think it's a perfect blend of power, speed, if you just put Mullins and Mike Trout together there in your draft. The near elite tier, this includes ADP 56 through 114.

So we're really kind of getting into the meat of the draft here, the middle rounds. And it includes rounds five through 10. Dalton Varsho, who you're most likely going to use as a catcher. Starling Marte, Teoska Hernandez, Adolius Garcia, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Brian Reynolds, Corbyn Carroll, Byron Buxton, and Stephen Kwan. So a lot of names in this tier. Buxton is one tier lower in a head-to-points league.

Kwan is one tier lower in a Roto or a Categories League. Scott, one thing I wanted to point out, first and foremost, you probably want at least two outfielders by the end of this tier, especially in a five outfielder league. The previous tier that we spoke about, the elite tier, I want at least one outfielder by the end of that tier, and by the end of this one, I want at least two outfielders.

What do you think? Yeah, I agree. The times I haven't done that, it's been, the outfield and it has been pretty ugly, especially in a five outfielder league. I've had drafts where I've had three outfielders by the end of this tier. And that I'm generally happy with happier with the way those tiers turn out because the next tier, it's not quite, the tier after this one,

the tier after this to Oscar Hernandez, George Springer, Brian Reynolds tier, it's not quite the drop off yet. But there are a lot of flawed players in that next tier who I wouldn't feel especially comfortable with. It's still probably worth it rather than wait till after the drop-off. But it's, you know, this tier that we're talking about right now is the last one where I feel really good about who I'm getting to start in my outfield. Somebody I've been taking in early drafts has been stalling Marte, and I do have a news item for him that I was going to save. But since we're talking about him, might as well bring it up now. He could be limited at the start of spring training.

He had core muscle surgery back in November. Again, that is Stalling Marte. And Scott, I know he's someone who is on your bus list. So what are you worried about with him? I just think Father Time's catching up to him. Father Time, undefeated. Starling Marte is 34 years old now. And the last time he played even 140 games in a season,

he was trying to remember he's the exact age, 28 or 29. It's been a while. He's averaged 119 games the past two years. And we've been willing to overlook that in the past, for him because he is in one of the he'd been one of the few standouts in the the ever scarce stolen base category but that changed last year too he swiped only 18 bases and in 27 attempts so poor success rate on top of just a not particularly good total his sprint speed it was still decent 68th

percentile but it wasn't what we're used to seeing from Starling Marte throughout his career. So I don't think you can count on him being a standout in that category anymore. And because of the rule changes, I'm not sure that category is going to be as valuable in general anymore, even if he was still a standout. So I think it's, I think it's kind of a double whammy of the thing Starling Marte is best at, it looks like those skills are eroding, and because of rule changes that that skill might not be as value. believe. Yeah.

Anyway. For Starling Marte, the ADP is 74.3. So if you play in a 12-team league, that is the 6-7 turn. I still think in a Categories league, you know, he has 20-20 potential.

I have a bit of buyer's remorse, mostly because of this injury, and it sounds like he's a little bit behind, but if he gets back on the field in spring training, I think we should feel all right about stalling Marte. Scott is a little bit lower on him this upcoming season. Chris, someone I know that you have loved in the past is a Blue Jay here.

and George Springer. And I'm pretty sure you've liked Teasca Hernandez as well. A former Blue Jay now with the Seattle Marlins. I was going to say Seattle Marlins, that wouldn't make any sense. Any love for Springer or Teasca Hernandez in this tier here?

I don't love the park change for Teasca Hernandez. Seattle is a tough place to hit. I think they're both okay players. They belong in this tier. But neither one of them is necessarily a huge target for me. Springer, you know, it was an interesting season for him because he just, he didn't really hit as well as I expected him to. But like all of a sudden he stole 14 bases, which was really strange. So it was a, I don't know, that's the kind of, that's the kind of skill set that I always find really interesting.

Because on the one hand, you can say, well, if he struggles, you know, relatively speaking, he has still had a 830 OPS or whatever it was. If he struggles, but he's still going to steal some bases, well, that helps make up. for whatever he lacks. But I also think, like, I still believe that he could be a very, very good hitter. You know, I still believe he could be someone who hits 270 with 35 homers. You know, I think that's on the table in a good offense. So he's more of a target for me than to Oscar Hernandez,

but not as, you know, last year I was drafting Springer pretty much everywhere. This year, I'm not making him as much of a priority. I'm kind of down on Springer. and the reason is because, you know, last year I was making the case, these middling exit velocity guys with the juice ball going away, they may have a hard time homering at the rate they used to before. George Springer's average exit velocity, percentile ranking for average exit velocity the past three years is 43, 51, 48.

So right in that mid-range. Now, average exit velocity isn't everything. Max exit velocity is really high for him. And hard hit rate is still quite good as well. So maybe that counts for more. But the fact that the year I'm most worried about that, he saw a pretty big decline in home runs, not to the extent of like a Zander Bogart's,

but still more like 25 homers than 35. I worry about that a little bit. Plus, he's not getting any younger himself. 33 years old now is George Springer. So I'd rather have Teosker Hernandez at this point. They're in the same tier, so really? I'd rather, I'm valuing them equally is what the tiers are saying. But just from a pure ranking standpoint, and I have Hernandez ahead.

Springer played 133 games last year, hasn't played 140 since 2018. And he had some stuff going on in the postseason. I remember suffered a concussion and a sprained shoulder, both of those in the playoffs. and then he had surgery to remove a bone spur from his right elbow should be ready for spring training. That is George Springer. We'll see what happens as we get closer to March. To Oscar, if I'm remembering correctly, he got off to just like a woefully bad start. Yeah.

I'm looking at it. I think it's two home runs in his first like 46 games, something like that. Three home runs in his first 37 games. From that point on, he hit 275 with a 38 homer pace. So, you know, he did strike out a lot. In addition to that, it was like a 28% strikeout rate from that point on. So, you know, that was consistent throughout the season. He didn't really run much.

But, you know, his overall numbers being down, there's a bit of just a slow start there, too. I typically wouldn't like the park shift either, Chris. I agree with you there. But to Oscar Hernandez is someone who just hits moonshots. So he averaged 410 feet on his home runs last year. That was tied for 24th out of 252 qualified. hitters. So I'm not sure that T-Mobile's going to hold them back. It's also a contract year, so take that for what it's worth when it comes to Toska Hernandez. Scott, I did want to rebut

your Adolius Garcia bus call yesterday. We didn't really have enough time. We were kind of rushing through at that point in the podcast, but I like him. I like Garcia this year. Back-to-back seasons as a top 60 player in Roto leagues, one of four players to go 25-25 last year. And really, what's the difference between Garcia and Randy Rose Arena, unless You're not really willing to draft a Rosarena in the third round anyway. I don't really see a big difference. Garcia actually hits the ball harder more consistently than a Rosarena. They both really don't walk very much.

They don't have great plate discipline. And Garcia actually hits more fly balls. So I don't really see a big difference. And you're getting a discount on Adoli. So I like him. I like the value this year. Randy or Rosarena, the past two years is at 263 and 274. Well, Adolice Garcia is at 250 and 243.

So that's a difference. And the skill set backs that up. You know, Adoli's hitting more home run or hitting more fly balls that helps him. Yeah. You know, hit more home runs. But he's not as fast as a Roseraine, even though he is a pretty decent base stealer. But he's not going to beat out as many hits. He's not going to get as many, you know, infield hits.

So a Roserina is a, I think a much safer bet for batting average. And the gap in, you know, you mentioned a Roserena doesn't walk a ton. He doesn't. But he walks more than Garcia, so the gap in on-base percentage is even bigger than the gap in batting average. And that's part of my concern for Garcia's. He reached base at a 300-clip last year. Like, as much as he strikes out, it wouldn't take – as much as he strikes out and as much as his on-base percentage is dependent on the batting average. Like, it wouldn't take that much for him to be like a 275-280-on-base guy.

And at that point, the Rangers break in a bunch of new players, they might start asking, does this guy? I really need to be in the lineup every day, especially since he's not really a long-term building block at age 30. All right. I have a little bit more confidence when it comes to Garcia. You know, 250 batting average. That's kind of what we expect from Marcus Semyon, right? And he's going around earlier as well.

So I just think he's a fine value. He was the 16th best player in Roto last year, Adelis Garcia. And now you're getting him in the 60s usually. So it seems fine to me. The next best things tier includes ADP 111 through 164. This is rounds 10 through 14 and includes John Carlos Stanton, Tyler O'Neill, Chris Bryant, Christian Yellich, Hunter Renfro, Anthony Santander, Taylor Ward, Mitch Hanager, and Jake McCarthy. McCarthy is one tier lower in a head-to-head points league. And Chris, something I said about the previous tier, is that I wanted two outfielders by the end of that tier. I want three outfielders by the end of this tier. And, you know, we'll talk about, you know, the further tier a little bit later on in the podcast, but you'll know exactly why. It really just starts to fall off. I'm not Chris, but I want like I wanted to point out those names you read,

like remember what I was saying. It's already starting by the way. Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and say like, if I want three outfielders by the end of this tier, I probably want three outfielders by the end of the previous tier. Because looking at this tier, I mean, it's not great. I like Chris Bryant. I think Chris Bryant's going to have a good season. I think all the reasons we still liked him last season. He was actually still productive when he was on the field last season. Beyond him and maybe Jake McCarthy in a Roto league, I don't know if I want anybody here, like actively want them at their price. Their prices are all, you know, outside of the top 100 for the most part. So it's not like you're getting gouged on any of them. But just in terms of who they are as players, I think this is an

incredibly, incredibly dispiriting group of starting out. outfielders. Yeah, I agree. Look, I kind of broke it down into two different groups within this tier. You got the injury riddled pass with Stanton, O'Neill,

Bryant, and Yelich. You have sluggers in Renfro, Santander, Hanager, and then you have last year's breakouts, Taylor Ward, and Jake McCarthy. So you could go a few different ways, but overall, Scott,

between the injuries and the lack of track record, I don't have a ton of confidence in the players in this tier. Yeah, this is, so this is technically pre- drop-off. The next tier is very short. Yes. And that indicates the drop-off. But, like, you're already feeling it at this point. This is where it starts to feel like a reach before the drop-off investing in any of these guys who, you know, I mean, Tyler O'Neill was huge two years ago.

Chris Bryan, of course, has been huge in the past. Yelich. I don't know how much hope we're holding out for Yelich rebound at this point. But, you know, it wasn't that long ago. He was a first-round pick. fantasy. So, like, you could certainly, you don't have to squint too hard to see a lot of these guys paying off in a really big way, but the downside is just as pronounced and probably more likely. I would say of this tier, the one who I find myself drafting most often, because he tends to last beyond the rest of the names in this tier, is Hunter Renfro. I feel really good about Hunter. For the second straight year, I feel like he's being under. undervalued.

And I'm not really sure why. I mean, he's a, he's a one category guy at this point. Like you're, the RBI could be good in the Angels lineup. It could be, but it certainly wasn't last year.

Okay. The one category referring to is home runs, of course. And like, he's, he's one of the last, one of the last guys you could feel good about giving you 30 home runs at any position,

especially this week one. And for being a one-trick, he's hit 255-259 the last two years. I mean, it's not like he's Adam Duvall with batting average. He's not going to kill you there. And two years ago, he had 96 RBI. Two years ago, he actually had 89 runs scored.

I wouldn't count on that happening year after year because his on base skills are not so great. But RBI, particularly in that Angels lineup, He's got a lot of high OBP guys batting in front of them. And I think there's a perception that the move from Milwaukee to Los Angeles is going to make it harder for him to hit home runs. Angels, their park has been the fourth best home run park over the last three years. Like I don't know when it happened because we used to think of Angel Stadium as a pitcher's park, but it's not anymore. It's a good place to hit home runs.

So I don't think that move's going to bring run for a down either. I think he's really solid. And he's the most, probably the most, of everyone in this tier, I feel most confident in what Renfro is going to give me this year. There was a, you know, skills decline, I guess, would be the way to phrase it. Like, his expected stats did take a little bit of a dive last year. And it does look like 2021, at least in that regard,

is a bit of an outlier for his career. You know, you look at the expected Wobon contact, 433 last year. that's very good. 390 last year, still pretty good, but more in line with what he had done before then when he was a bit of an all-or-nothing guy. I think that's probably what he is. And I'm not saying I dislike him relative to this tier.

It's just I don't really want this tier. I think I could still see a world where Yelich rediscovers the ability to hit the ball in the air because his quality of contact metrics are still quite good. His plate discipline is still pretty good, you know, walks a ton, strikeout rates still elevated a bit. But like, I could see a world where we get another 25 homer season from Christian Yowlch.

I think he's probably him and Brian are probably the two. I just think have the strongest skill sets of this group remaining. I mean, Stanton still hits the ball harder than everyone. Is this the first year? At his down on Stanton? Well, no, because relative to his price, it's, you know, I, like, if you told me there was another 45 homer season from Stanton in his career before he retires, I would believe that. I could see, you know, one more year where everything goes right. He still hits the ball. I mean,

average exavilo 95 miles an hour last season. He still hits the ball at his hardest, harder than anyone. He's still a one of one kind of guy there. So I could still see one last season. It's just, is that going to be this year? I don't think so. Yeah. And the injuries are still a big thing for Stanton. He's played more than 110 games just once over the past four years. That only includes three full seasons because of 2020. But I do find myself needing power at this point in the draft very often. And so it's a good time to grab a Stanton or a Renfro, Santander, Hanager, because obviously those guys are going to help you out in that category. One player I wrote about in my Sleepers article, more so undervalued because he's going around pick 125. Taylor Ward,

I'll just point out, basically a three-part act last season for him. He was one of, if not the best hitter in baseball, over the first month and a half. And then he ran into a wall trying to make a catch in the outfield, and he hurt his shoulder, and he had an issue with his neck going on. And basically for the next three months, he was really bad. You know, he was a 219 batting average during that time. You know, there was a lot going on. But then he finished really strong too.

Final 31 games for Ward, 345, batting average, six homers, nearly 14% barrel rate, 972 OPS. I think there's something there. I think he's someone that could hit 280 with 30 home runs, and that would constitute a real breakout if he could do it over a full season. So just one player I wanted to tap there in Taylor Ward. The timing of the drop-off, I agree, makes him hard to...

Yeah, I could see things going really well for Taylor Ward too. Basically, he was amazing. He was like the best player in baseball the first month of the year and basically as good the final month and then was just completely useless for the four months in between. But how much of that was carryover effect from the injury? The timing is suspicious. I will also point out, though, history didn't start last season. He had 534 plate appearances over the previous four seasons where he had a 693 OPS. He was basically like a high.

700s OPS bat for most of his minor league career until a very late breakout as a 24 year old at AA. And the numbers were awesome from that point on. Yeah, but he was very old. I just, I don't know, I tend to be very skeptical of this type of player. I, it's certainly possible that it was real. I just, he's going ahead of Brandon Drury and I view them very similarly. Look, he was always going to regress last year through May 20th, he was betting 370 with an OPS over 1100, right? Like, he was going to regress from that. There's no doubt. So I think there's a combination of yes, the injury contributed, but he was also going to come back down to Earth a little bit. I think it's somewhere in the middle, though. And I think that season could be, you know, 270, 280, 25 to 30 home runs in the middle

of that lineup. You know, the top half of the Angels lineup is still going to be really, really good. Before we hit the break, just want to remind everyone to sign up for our fantasy baseball today newsletter, it's free. And it gets delivered right to your email inbox, and it's written by one of our best fantasy editors, Dan Schneier, and includes tidbits from the podcast, our articles on the site. Make sure to head over to cbsports.com slash newsletters. Click on the FBT logo, punch in your email address, and it's easy as that. It'll begin being sent to your inbox. And if you want to support Chris, you can also sign up for the Fantasy Football Today newsletter to find out what's going on in the off season. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this.

Let's get some news and notes before we get back into our outfield tears and we'll start with those prospect news items which I mentioned earlier. Orioles GM Mike Elias said Sunday that he expects Grayson Rodriguez to make the team's opening day starting rotation. The early ADP for Grayson Rodriguez 191.3. Scott, I have a feeling, you know, now that we have that confirmation or something that sounds like confirmation, that is going to move up. I just don't know what to expect in terms of endings this season for Grayson Rodriguez.

Last year, 75 and 2 thirds across three levels in the minors. Is it 100? Is it 120? You know, if he starts to move up. I mean, health will partly determine it. Sure. But I would guess there's probably going to be

a cap of 130 or so. Which isn't, how many did Spencer Strider get last year? I think exactly 1.30. Yeah. So I'm thinking somewhere around that. Now try to miss some time at the end of the year with an IL stint, and maybe he would have exceeded that if not for it.

But, you know, they're going to manage Grayson Rodriguez's innings, I'm sure, in the ways. We're used to seeing teams manage young pitchers' innings, skip a turn here and there, maybe put him on the IL a couple times strategically. And, you know, I expect he'll be really good when he's able to pitch. It's just how much do you want to contend with removing him from your lineup

and maybe getting burned sometimes because you start him and then they decide to skip him at the last minute. That's going to be kind of frustrating. So I don't, where do you say he's going among starting pitchers? His ADP is 191.3 as the 55th starter off. the board. Because I was kind of all along expecting he'd make the rotation. I know that was something the Welsh and I disagreed on. I have him 61st in my starting pitcher rankings. I don't see a lot of room to move him up from there. And, you know, I guess that means I'm not going to draft much of

Grayson Rodriguez, but I don't really feel a lot of pressure to draft him either because there are so many high upside arms beyond even the top 50. Yeah, I think he's probably moving up at least 20 spots an ADP as a result of a report like this. And then we're getting into, you know, Chris Sale, Jeffrey Springs, Charlie Morton territory, guys that we spoke about that we like recently. Not that we dislike Grace and Rodriguez, but that's lofty.

Yeah, I think there's a clear limit on Rodriguez's upside because of the workload issues. Then there are there are. It just depends what it looks like, right? It depends what the shape of the workload is. You know, that's if it's five innings every time out, I think that's a bigger concern than a month in the bullpen, and then he just gets to start like Spencer Strider.

If that's how they used him, I think that would be great. But if he's going to crack the opening day rotation, then things start to get a little hairy. Although with how many pitchers you tend to need over the course of the season, these kinds of things become, they're real talking points during the season. And then once the season starts,

you know, if Grayson Rodriguez is really good, we're probably going to rank him a lot higher. than this. And he definitely has the potential to be very, very good. Yep, for sure. I mean, one of, if not the top pitching prospect in baseball is Grayson Rodriguez. Mets GM, Billy Epler said Francisco Alvarez is not a candidate for their D.H role in spring training. And here's the quote. We see Francisco as a catcher over the long term, so you wouldn't be able to develop a guy as a catcher if he was sitting in the designated hitter role full time. Sounds like Alvarez could start in the minors.

And Scott, I think you have him as a sleeper. I do. Though I do find it interesting that he added full time to the end of that sentence. Because I don't think anybody was expecting he would be a DH full time. I think we were thinking part time. And he made a point to say full time. Look, if he's good in spring training, are they really going to ride with Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nito? They might hurt a little while.

But I don't think it would be for long. The full season? No, probably not. I think we should be approaching Francisco Alvarez about like we were approaching Adley Rushman. I always want to say Matt Wheaters. Matt Adley Rushman at this point last year. And we're not. Won't you put that even longer?

He's going a lot later than Rushman was. All right. Scott mentioned this yesterday, but Dodgers GM, Andrew Friedman said over the weekend that Miguel Vargas could open the 2023 season as the team's primary second basement. that would give him first base and second base eligibility on CBS. Definitely helps second base. Obviously not a great position this year. Brewer's outfield prospect, Sal Freelick, received an invitation to Major League Spring Training,

as did White Sox shortstop prospect, Colson Montgomery. He will join Oscar Colos to White Sox prospects there in spring training. Cole Irvin was traded to the Orioles in exchange for minor leaguers, Daryl, Hernias, and Kyle Verbitsky. Two interesting names there. Last season for Cole Irvin, I remember Scott, we would always say you could stream Cole Irvin at home,

307 ERA at home, 526 ERA on the road, and now he's leaving Oakland. Well, but he's leaving Oakland for maybe the best place for a fly ball lefty to pitch, which is Baltimore. And in fact,

I think this is all a sinister plan on the part of the Orioles so that they could put together a gimmicky, rotation that is perfectly suited for their now oddly configured ballpark and not have to invest a lot in starting. But like still get good results from a pitching staff that they didn't invest a lot in. And I think I think Cole Irvin is the poster boy of that devious plot.

So I, you know, I think this is a fine move for him fantasy wise. You're still probably not going to want to start them on the road very often. but he'll have his uses this season. All right. I mean, pretty tough teams in the AL East. You know, we got the Yankees and the Blue Jays and Tampa Bay is pesky and all that fun stuff. But we'll see with Cole Irvin.

Their rotation as of now, Kyle Gibson, Irvin, Kyle Braddish, Dean Kramer, and the aforementioned Grayson Rodriguez. John Means could be back around June or July from Tommy John's surgery. On the other side, for the Oakland A's, that means that Ken Waldichuk is probably back in the Oakland A's rotation.

So potential deep sleeper there for you as well. Jorge Polanco says he's ready to go for spring training after missing the last month of the season due to knee injury. Due to a knee injury. Reliever Chad Green signed a two-year, $8.5 million deal with the Blue Jays. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will not be ready to pitch until the second half of this season.

Josh Harrison signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Phillies. Chris, this probably doesn't matter, right? I can't imagine he's going to play two. much. Yeah. He's a name for NL only if you play in those leagues. By the way, I'll be participating in NL only labor this year. So gotta study up because I have not played in a Mono League in a while, but I'm pretty excited to be part of it. So it should be fun. Matt Barnes was traded to the Marlins in exchange for Richard Blyer. Dylan Floro is the early favorite for Marlins Closer, but Barnes is just one you're removed from 24

saves. So you know Chris, I don't know that Floreau has. You know, Chris, I don't know that Floreau has, you you know, a stranglehold on the closer's job here. So it's just something to remember. Matt Barnes being in that point. Just depends on whether Barnes can throw strikes, which is always the big issue for him. Zach Granky, uh, Granky agreed to a one-year deal with the Royals.

Their rotation is gross. And it includes Granky, Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Ryan Yarbrough, and Brad Keller. Make sure to stream your hitters against the Kansas City Royals. Kent and Maida will have no restrictions during spring training. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September.

of 2021, which is a similar timetable to when Justin Verlander had it back in the short in 2020 season. And obviously he came back last year and didn't really have any restrictions. Maida is not the picture that Verlander is, but I just wanted to point out it's a similar timetable. Brock Burke and the Rangers discuss a return to the rotation earlier in the offseason, and he's now being considered for the closer role as well. I mean, Scott, look, it's kind of all over the place. Jose LeClerc ended it last year. I think he's kind of the favorite to start. They still have Joe Barlow, but Brock Burke was really good for the Rangers last year.

So maybe he gets a chance. Yeah, I think it's going to take a while for the Rangers to settle on somebody for that ninth inning roll, if they ever do. I still think Jose LeClerc is the one to target. but it's the lowest level among, the lowest level of confidence among relievers who appear to be in line for saves. The Blue Jays made some changes to the dimensions of Rogers Center,

and they brought the left center and right center walls in, but also raised the height of those walls. So to me, Chris, it kind of, it feels like a wash. You know, they're pulling them in, but raising the walls a little bit. And I feel like I've read somewhere that, that exact thing, it's basically a wash, but I don't know if you have any data to support that.

I haven't seen any, but there will be some analysis of this. There was a really good piece from MLB.com the other day about the Comerica dimension changes and how they expect it to be a much smaller change than the Orioles, Camden Yards change was a year ago. I think the... I mean, I've never seen a bigger change than 30 feet across the whole left field fence.

The number they projected was 50-ish home runs. ended up being 56, I think. For the Orioles, fewer home runs hit there. For Comerica, it was like 18 to 20 is their projection. So I would think something in that range. But it'll be a better park. This, I'll wait until there's, you know, some smart guy with a computer who tells me what the impact is.

Oh, well, usually, Chris, you're that person for me. I'm not that smart. You're the smart guy with the computer. I do have a computer. Some extension news, Jeff McNeil signed a four-year, $50 million extension with the Mets, Tony Gonselin, signed a two-year $6.65 million contract to avoid arbitration. Pete Fairbanks signed a three-year, $12 million deal with the raise, and Yendi Diaz,

signed a three-year, $24 million extension, also with the raise. I like when a prospective closer becomes cost-controlled like the raise did with Fairbanks. Agreed. They don't have to worry about suppressing the saves for arbitration purposes, you know. He might get 15, maybe 16 saves this year. And you know what? I'm hoping for more. Hope spring is eternal.

The fantasy community is very Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football when it comes to to Ray's relievers. Like, Pete Farr ranks is good, but they've had a lot of good relievers that we've been like, yeah, this guy's going to be the closer. And they never are. But that's the thing, Chris. It's so enticing because these guys are so talented, right? It's the rays do a great job, you know, just plucking these relievers out and making them.

Yeah, they got a million guys who throw 100 miles an hour and get 14 strikeouts per nine. Yeah, they really would have worked out for Nick Anderson if he hadn't gotten hurt, all right? What have happened? And perhaps the biggest news of the offseason, Scott, Ty Butchery has signed a minor league contract with the Astros. Okay, I could have sworn he retired. Am I remembering that correctly? I thought it. Okay. Yeah. He heard. He heard my.

impression, and he was like, well, I can't deny the world this. So I got to come back. He really did hear my impression. Somebody played it for him on a podcast. That's that. That is actually a fact. It was played on the triple play fantasy. My Michael Kane impression where I always mentioned Ty Butchery, to be clear. Yes, played on the triple play fantasy podcast with our buddy, David Mendelsohn, who has been on this podcast before. Let's get back over to the Outfield tiers. About 10 minutes left. Lots of names to go through. So we'll just kind of pick and choose a little bit of wait hold on one thing real quick okay who was the last raise reliever with more than 25 saves amelio pagan yes 47 saves and i was trying to think way back kyle farnsworth or something i don't know

and then that was 2017 2018 uh who was it sergey romo had 25 saves and then that was the last time anyone's had more than 20 was 2018 so yeah it's stuff Could could happen. But you know what? With Fairbanks, even if he only gives us 15 saves and yeah, the ratios are going to be really good ratios, then it'll be a worthwhile pick. The fallback options tier for the outfield position includes Andrew Vaughn, Brendan Nimmo, Nick Cassiano's and MJ Melendez. It's basically a three-person tier because you want to play in Melendez at the catcher position. Nimmo is one tier lower in a roto or Categories League, but is really good in head-to-head points.

That just leaves Vaughan. and Castiano's and Vaughn't be drafted to play first base. He probably shouldn't be, but he might be. So it's, yeah, this is the drop-off. So with that being said, Scott, do you have any hope for a Nick Castiano's bounce bag?

He's last man standing. I mean, I didn't expect his numbers to decline so much with the move from Cincinnati to Philadelphia, and I don't think that entirely explains it. Not at all, no. Delphia is not Detroit, where Castianus's numbers were suppressed for so long. Yeah, I don't really know what happened. He wasn't hitting the ball as hard.

The average exit velocity was 22nd percentile, like really bad. But he's still 30, so I can't say, oh, this is obviously a bounce back candidate, but, like, you could definitely see a bounce back for Nick Castianas. All right, let's get into the last resort tier And this includes a ton of names I will include the link to this article With the outfield tier so you can follow along So I'm just gonna you know pick and choose a few players to talk about here

Masataka Yoshita signed a five-year $90 million deal with the Red Sox this offseason Chris And the projections Scott you know cover your ears cover your eyes I know you're not a projections guy But the projections on fan graphs they really like Masataka Yoshida. They have him hitting all of the projection systems.

Up over 280 batting average, between 15 and 19 home runs. None have him with a higher than 12% strikeout rate. So, he really liked this guy. He's not hitting 15 to 19 home runs. He was barely doing that in Japan. Yeah, it's, I remember Haseung Kim's projections. And obviously, KBO versus Nippon League is very, very different. But I remember Hassan Kim's projections were

outrageously good the year he came over. I could see him being a solid player, but like doesn't project to have good power, doesn't project to run much, should be a good on base guy, should hit at the top of the lineup. Like, I could see, oh, I don't know, a Brandon Nemo. Like, Brandon, you know, like the upside. I was thinking, like,

Caesar Hernandez, but Hernandez probably stole more bases than Yoshito probably will. But I've talked to... I've made an Alex Verdugo comparison before, too. Sure. These are fairly optimistic comps, I feel like, that I'm making. I mean, the things to not... Yoshita excels at are making contact getting on base, which generally don't translate well to fantasy. I mean, Yandi Diaz maybe is another.

Sure. Potential comp. Better in points leagues, obviously. I think the most, the strongest argument in Yoshida's favor is that the Red Sox paid him that much money. Yep. And are basically anointing him the leadoff hitter already. Look, I think if you look at your offense and you find that your counting stats, specifically runs aren't where they need to be, you know, in the later rounds, I think he's fine for that. Specifically in a head-to-head, points league guy, you are spot on.

I don't want him as one of my three starting outfielder's, but to take him on my bench and just kind of see how he starts the season with that skill set, it would line up very well in that format. So I think that is somewhere to target Masataka Yoshita. A few other names that I like personally in this tier, Sayas Suzuki. The ADP is a little bit higher than I would like it to be, but, you know, uneven season. He finished really strong once again towards the end of the season. Sayas Suzuki did.

Riley Green, we spoke about yesterday. I think Oscar Gonzalez is pretty. interesting too. I don't know that he excels anywhere, but it's kind of like this jack-of-all-trades kind of player with the Cleveland Guardians. And you know, Jesse Winker and Will Myers, I feel like, you know, everyone has those two as a sleeper. Chris, is there anyone that I mentioned there? Sayas Suzuki, Oscar Gonzalez, you know, Winker we spoke about yesterday, but Will Myers with the Cincinnati Reds as well? Riley Green we talked about, I think Oscar Gonzalez and Brian Dale Cruz are very pretty similar players in terms of, you know, they're

very much quality of contact darlings who haven't quite proved it over a full season, but I think there are reasons to like both of them. I am open to the possibility of a Michael Conforto bounce back, given how bad things have been for him recently. Maybe there's still something there. And I'm with you on Sayas Suzuki. I quite like him. If we're going to do the Taylor Ward, like injuries excuse,

I think Sayas Suzuki has a similar one because he had that finger injury that really derailed a very good start for him. I don't know if there was quite as clear a delineation between the injury and when he stopped hitting, but there was definitely, you know, good early, mediocre for a while. But I think there's a, the underlying skill set with him remains strong. I think he can be a decent player. Yeah, you're exactly right. He was awesome in April.

Say, a Suzuki, 279 batting average, four homers, 934 OPS. Awful in May, hit 2.11 with zero home runs. Then he missed just over a month with a sprained finger. He returned in July and over his final 70 games, he hit 271, 10 homers, six steals. That is Sayas Suzuki. I think he's someone that can hit, you know, 20 to 25 home runs with 10 to 15 steals. Yep. It's a pretty 7th percentile sprint speed, 63rd percentile average XVI velocity.

77th percentile max exit Vilo, I think does suggest that there is, you know, some power upside there as well. So I, and good play discipline. So I, uh, I think Sayas Suzuki is someone. who, like you said, I wrote, he's a breakout pick for me. And I wrote that he has a path to 25 and 15. Scott, I believe Will Myers is a player you wrote about as a sleeper. And you don't really have to squint hard to see just every day at bats in Cincinnati. That is, that is conducive to fantasy value.

So, you know, one year removed from 17 home runs and eight steals, it wouldn't surprise me if Will Myers can approach something like that again this year. Yeah, it's been a lot. particularly if you throw out the weird 2020 season when Will Myers was awesome. It's been a long time since he's been useful in fantasy. And so part of me feels like this is a trendy sleeper pick that's just going to blow up in everybody's face. But part of me feels like he's this year's Brandon Drury. I mean, Grand American Ballpark totally made him last year.

Will Myers has more success in his history than Drury does. And he's still a fast runner. And if stealing bases is going to be easier this year, as I keep saying it's going to be, you know, we've seen Will Myers be a 20 steel guy in the past. You know, he could go 2020 this year. It seems within the realm of possibility. I know he's been battling some neat to the past couple of years, so I don't know if he'll ever get back to 20 steals, Scott,

but, you know, maybe he could push, you know, 10, 12 and 20 plus home runs. Again, that would be a pretty useful player as late as Will Myers is going this season. The leftover's tier, it's basically everybody else. There's like 30 names in this tier, but honestly, you probably could include even more. Some names that stood out to me, Harrison Bader and Ramon Luriano. I find Harrison Bader's price completely baffling.

I do not understand this guy being a top 170 pick. Do we get defense now in fantasy, or are we going to get like points for what he did in the like nine postseason games that he played last year? Because otherwise, I can't see it at all. I don't know what the case for him is supposed to be. I think he's always been an intriguing power speed combination. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. That is a fact.

So you could, you know, obviously factor that into his price. But if he could find a way to stay healthy in a contract year. He had 20 hours and 12 steals and 150 games between 2020 and 2021. I just, is that the ceiling? Harrison Bader is outfield Isaiah Kiner Folefa. Yankees fans are going to love that. Oh, come on. It's true.

All right, you guys have gone too far. I'm going to do a little bit of math. He's got 52 home runs, 57 steals, and 537 games. I'm going to do a little bit of math. Career 225 expected batting average for this guy. 378 expected slug. Like, I get it. It's Yankee Stadium.

He had like five home runs in the post season or something wild like that, right? But I just like, I, I don't know. I don't remember that. Five. He had an awesome post season, but like, and he stole a bunch of bases in a half season last year. But he's only stolen the post season, zero. Well, he didn't, you know, when you're hitting, when all you're doing is hitting dingers. Hey, hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, hate hate hate hate.

He's also missed so much time with plant or fashitis last season that I don't know if he's going to run. I just, I don't know. That was one of the ones when I first started, like, working, looking at stuff this year. I was just like, what did I miss? Well, he'll add a lot of defensive value. Yes, for sure. Isaiah Kineer Volefa theoretically does. Yeah, I'm happy you threw the word theoretically in there, Scott,

because he was not great defensively, at least in the games that I saw. Over Harrison Bader's career, over 150 game pace, 14 homers and 15 steals. So I'm just saying. He could be a 15-15 guy. Sure. In a really good lineup. Just throwing it out there.

I mean, kinder for Leffa could be a 1220 guy. Oh, gosh. Stop saying his names, God. It's annoying me. I look at this list and it like, give me Ramon Luriano over him, who's been a legitimately good fantasy player before. Give me Horace Solair who at least has that,

you know, 35 homer ceiling. Give me, I mean, the rest of these guys mostly stink. But Joey Gallo, you know, Give me the Joey Gallo bounce back. Yeah, come on. We're going to give all these guys credit for, oh, that's right. Joey Gallo was already bad for the Yankees,

so he'll never be good again. Gosh. You guys have gone too far. Charlie Blackman, just the name I wanted to mention in deep leagues. I think he's a higher floor option. He's very boring, but 260, 15 homers, solid counting stats.

Again, just deeper league. That's actually a potential comp for Yoshita. Yeah, it's possible. Scott, I wanted to get some quick thoughts on Estéari Ruiz. He seems very polar. rising. I think he had 85 steals in the minors last season and now should have an everyday role

with the Oakland A's. Anything there? I mean, there could be. I am on the negative side of the poll I guess in that I don't think the contact is going to be impactful enough, particularly in a bad line of a big ballpark. I did

begrudgingly include him in my top 100 prospects because he is in line for an everyday role and because steals are. in such high demand, but Estuary Ruiz, it wouldn't surprise me if he's very quickly reduced to a utility role. His max Xivila was 100 miles an hour last season.

I wonder if any of the minor league stackass signals were a little better because, yeah, I mean, very small sample size in the majors last year, but very, very underwhelming quality. I haven't seen a lot of data from the miners along those lines, but the reports basically confirm what you're saying. Yeah. Looking at baseball perspectives, Ruiz routinely posts exevalos in the mid-70s and 80s, generating triple-digit ex-vilos

an extremely low rate. All right. Well, that's everything you need to know about Esther Ruiz and basically everything you need to know about outfield tears. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.