Fantasy Baseball Today - Outfield Tiers! What's up with Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich? (1/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 20, 2022

Vote to help FFT win best social media award- https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8JGJJY8 Before we get into the tiers, how does our outfield strategy change in H2H vs. Roto (2:45)? ... Outfield elite tier (6:10): How to navigate Trout, Acuna, Betts, Tucker? All aboard the Luis Robert hype train. ... Outfield near elite tier (15:34): is Cedric Mullins overvalued? Are we buying Teoscar Hernandez? ... Next best things tier (25:05): no love for Eloy Jimenez? What do we do with Bellinger and Yelich? ... Fallback options (41:00): do we trust the breakouts from Renfroe and Grossman? ... Last resorts (48:02): are Alex Kirilloff and Jo Adell post hype sleepers? ... We wrap up with the deep league names and your emails (52:40)! 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Serafeas is magnificent. Got a fantasy question. Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Outfield tears, let's go. Welcome into fantasy baseball today on Thursday, January 20th. I am Frank Sanfiel Jr. Join by Scott White Jr. No Chris Towers today as he's out. dominating the flag football gridiron. What's going on, Scottie? You're ready to talk some outfielders?

Yeah, yeah, let's do it. Nice big position with some nice, meaty tears. It's going to be a mouthful for you, Frank. It's going to be an earful for the listeners out there. But by the end of it, everyone will be full. So that can't be a bad thing. It cannot be a bad thing. I agree.

It's a very interesting position. A lot of elite talent up top. but I'm not sure how deep it is in terms of that elite level talent. It's, again, it's an interesting position. We'll get into all of it. But yeah, how many times this offseason are we going to talk about Cody Belanger and Christian Yell? They are two very polarizing players and two that we will get into today. So we've got outfield tiers coming your way and I'm going to try to get to a few emails.

We're bringing it back. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. So if you have a question, you can send it there and we will get to it. All right, Scott. Outfield Word Association. You know how this works. Go. Big. Big?

Yeah. It's a big position. It is a big position. You are correct. There's a lot going on. There's not just a large number of players, but you'll find all types of players in the outfield. And so, you know, it's, it's never a position. that I tend to make a priority early in drafts

because it never really runs out of what you need. You know, it's kind of like a superstore as opposed to this mom-and-pop shop along the infields. Like, they're going to have it. Well, I don't know. These days they might not have it, but putting that aside, they're going to have it. And so you can always, you know, you need some stolen bases,

you need some power, you just need a, an upside type with a mid to late round pick, you can pretty much always find it in the outfield. Yeah, I think that is definitely fair. And before we actually get into the tiers, I think maybe we just talk about the position in a headset points league versus a Roto league. Typically, in the points format,

we play with three outfielders. I think a lot of headshead categories leagues use three outfielders as well. And in the traditional five-by-five roto, we start five outfielders, Scott. So when drafting in those different formats, are you cognizant of maybe not filling out your outfield too quickly in a points league versus maybe putting more emphasis on it in a roto style lineup setting?

Yeah, I would say I almost intentionally avoid outfield early and only a three outfielder league, particularly if there's just one utility spot to fill. It's so frustrating if you fill those three outfield spots early and they're then that seems like that's where all the value hitters are, you know, later on in the draft and you can't do anything about it. You could use up a bench spot on them, but you have greater needs because obviously you didn't invest early in other areas. So I just find that extremely frustrating.

And it's not uncommon in like a 12-te-to-head points league for me to kind of just spend the first couple months of the season swapping out outfielders on the waiver wire. before eventually landing on three that are pretty good. I want to say, was it in the podcast league last year, Brian Reynolds? I ended up with Brian Reynolds and maybe Hunter Renfro who had a career season, obviously. And these weren't people that in shallow leagues like that were on anybody's radar on draft day. But there are always those types that emerge at that position. So yeah, in three outfielder leagues, look, I'm not saying I'd pass up Juan Soto with the number one overall pick.

but two of my first four picks are outfielders, that's not ideal. And I'm probably putting off drafting that third one for a long, long time. All right, I am looking at your head to head points league from last season. You did have Brian Reynolds. You also had Eloy Jimenez,

who I would imagine you either picked up or stashed. Yeah, somebody dropped, yeah. Same thing with Luis Robert, potentially. Right, somebody dropped both of them when they got hurt. Those were long-term injuries, obviously. And Robbie Grossman in your utility spot, who went 20-20 last year. And I was pretty surprised when I look back to see that he actually met that threshold, 20 homers and 20 steals for one Robbie Grossman.

And you answered the first question I was going to ask, because you talked about how in a three outfielder league, you might intentionally avoid the position, but also don't just like pass up on Wonsoto because he's amazing. And I think we can say the same things about like Bryce Harper and all those other elite outfielers as well. Yeah, there's really no sound like Heath Cummings here. Remember the Heath Cummings NIPS strategy, no intentional position strategy.

Great strategy. Oh, yeah. Yeah, with those, basically first couple rounds, that position is just whatever. Like, I'm not really drafting anybody because of their position. I know we talked about Jose Ramirez and when we did the corner infield tiers. You know, he gets elevated a little because of his position, but that's already baked into the ranking. So I'm not even really thinking about position until, you know, maybe round three. More realistically, probably round four or five.

All right, so let's jump into this out. The elite outfield tier. And all of these players are going inside of the first two rounds. And it includes Fernando Tatis, who will have outfield and shortstop eligibility with an ADP of 1.3. All ADP comes via fantasy pros. Juan Soto at pick 2.7. Bryce Harper at 8.7. Mike Trout, 12.3.

Mookie bets, 13. Kyle Tucker, 13.3, Ronald de Cunia, 11.7, and Luis Robert at Pick 22. We know Tatis and Juan Soto are amazing. Scott, I think people might be a little surprised to see Bryce Harper this high, even though he won the National League MVP, and he was awesome last year. He's going ahead of names that for years he was going behind. Trout, bets, Ronald de Cunia, because of injury, obviously, but what do you think? Is this warranted? Bryce Harper being a top 10 pick in 2022?

You just read off my tears, right? So obviously. Obviously, I think it's warranted. But I'll tell you why I think it's warranted. And that's because remember how during the pandemic short in 2020 season, we were saying, wow, if you look at Bryce Harper's expected stats on Stackcast, what the bad at ball data, the kind of stat line it says he should have put up. It was better than even his MVP winning season in 2015, right?

That was something we kept saying. Yep. Well, he did it again last year. And oh, yeah, he won a second MVP. So two years in a row of him delivering numbers that for a while there, I wasn't sure he was ever going to get back to. I was, you know, there were some years there where the strikeouts were rising and obviously he was having trouble staying on the field and I wasn't sure we'd ever

see him perform at an MVP level again and now he's done it um you know at least as far as the underlying numbers are concerned he's looked even better two years in a row and he's you know gotten some steals back uh he's become a little bit of a base stolen base contributor again when that was a little more inconsistent earlier in his career 13 steals last Last year, he had eight and 58 games the year before, so that's, you know, like on pace for more than 20. So, yeah, I mean, he just, he's the second best on-base threat in baseball at this point, probably behind Juan Soto, in addition to having easy 35 Homer Power, the steals contributions, and just, it just seems like altogether a first-round pick.

I'm with you, 100%. Regardless of format, too, we know in points leagues, he's amazing. because he walks a ton. And then in Roto, I mean, he basically gives you everything. Over 300 batting average last year. And you mentioned the expected stats two years in a row where he has had at least a 297 expected batting average. Gives you power, runs, RBI.

And now his last three full seasons, he's giving you 13 plus steals. So I'm with you, 100%. Top 10 pick, regardless of the format is Bryce Harper. Scott, I feel like one of the more confusing things if you have a later first round pick this year, early second round pick, is trying to sort through this group of Mike Trout, Mookiee, Mookiee, Bets, Kyle Tucker, and Ronald Acuna.

They are all going in the same range. Pick 12, 13, the ADP for all four of these guys, right there. So you've got a pretty tough decision to make. Maybe you want to pair them with a pitcher, whatever it might be. But regardless, you still have to decide which one of those four outfielers you want. How do you sort through that group? Well, I think Acuna is definitely a last. in that group.

And I may be on the lower end of where I rank him now after starting on the higher end, my belief being we're not going to see him until May. And that's highly concerning to me because if we're not going to see him take the field at all in spring training when we're drafting, I mean, who's to say how close he is to returning, really? I mean, all we have to go on is reports.

And any kind of setback, you know, could lose a month. Yeah, I don't want to invest a first round picking that. I'm reluctant to even invest a second round picking in, knowing when he's healthy, Akunia has number one overall type upside. So I think it's pretty easy to say he's last. If he does get in games this spring training, if he does get in games this spring,

that might change the calculation for me. But as of now, I think Akunia's definitely last to this group. Trout Betts and Tucker, of course Tucker's coming off the best. season of the three. He's also the least proven of the three. Betts had the hip injury. That cost him some time and probably hindered his production as well as he was playing through it for a while, started to feel better late in the season and took off again. Didn't it have surgery, which kind of concerns me. We were thinking he would, but he's entering his age 29 season, so still in his prime. And then Trout, we talked about him with the calf issue. If that wasn't,

on anybody's mind, the fact that Trout missed the final three quarters of last season with that calf injury, I'm sure he'd be a top five pick still because year after year, I mean, it's not like the production is slipped for Trout. Stolen bases, yes, he's not a great contributor of those anymore. And obviously, the value of those has been inflated so much in Roto leagues that I feel like I feel like people obsess over them a little bit and maybe it skews the value of certain players, Trout included.

But I put him number one because that doesn't seem like an injury that'll have a carryover effect. And I just, I personally don't see much reason to draft Mike Trout as long as you're willing to not get much stolen base, not get many stolen bases with your first round pick. So that's, I go Trout one, Betts two, Tucker. three and then Acuna a distant fourth. All right. Yeah, the last time we saw Trout

in a full season was 2019, 134 games. Well, we saw him last year, but he just played a part of the season. But in 2019, 134 games, 291, 45 homers, 11 steals, over 100 runs, over 100 RBI. So again, that was only in 134 games. We're not really that far removed from Mike Trout being still one of the best contributors in

Fantasy Baseball. The last name in this tier, Scott, is Luis Robert, and there is a lot of hype around him, and rightfully so. I'm very excited about him. I think many people are very excited about him, and he only played 68 games last year. We've got to see him stay healthy. That's a big key for Luis Robert. He has yet to do that. Last year was his first full season, so we've, you know, but he's had, he's dealt with some injuries in the minor leagues as well. But he was great last year. 338 batting average, 13 homers, lower the strikeout rate tremendously, raised the line drive rate. Statcast love this guy as well. Scott, the guy's just oozing with tools. to power speed in the middle of a great lineup. So there's a lot to like. He just has to stay on the field. Yep. There is the fact that he cut his strikeout rate down to 20.6% last year, very strong strikeout rate.

And that's compared to 32.2% as a rookie. So huge improvement there. It really removes what had been my biggest concern about him. Is just, is he going to make enough contact to get to his tools? I don't worry about that so much anymore because over the much larger sample in 2021 and again it wasn't a full season sample but still much larger than 2020

he certainly made all the contact he needs to and I think he has top five potential factor in the stolen basis he's going to deliver the home runs and likely to hit for a good out and not going to hit 338 again obviously but likely to contribute make a positive contribution in batting average

his expected batting average was $297. I mean, it's still really high end. So I think all of the players here, Tatis, Soto, Harper, Trout, Betts, Tucker, Acuna, Robert, they all have the potential to be top five players off the board next year, which is why they're all in the same tier, right?

Very similar projected outcome for each of them. theoretically, they could finish in any order at season's end. it's a big, you know, there's a lot of names here, obviously. It looks like a nice big tier, but they're all so high in, they're going to be gone by the middle of round two, in all likelihood,

and it's not really going to give you a chance to, to decide, okay, is this position depleting faster than this position? You know, it's just going to be entirely driven by draft order. Probably for the elite at every tier. You're not really going to have to think about position. yet. I'm sorry, probably for the elite at every position. You're not going to have to think about about position yet because the tiers are just going to deplete. That first tier at every position is going to deplete too quickly for you to engage in that thought process. Let's move into the

near elite tier and this spans from rounds around three through seven and includes Cedric Mullins, Starling Marte, Whitmerfield, Aaron Judge, Yerdon Alvarez, Teascah Hernandez, George Springer, Byron Buxton, and Catelle Marte with Whitmeryfield, a tier lower in points league. Scott, we recently spoke about Cedric Mullins. We did that podcast, Can the 2021 Breakouts, do it again. I encourage everyone to go check it out if they haven't listened or watched it already. But Mullins, while he is an awesome story and I am rooting for him, I just, it's hard for me to get behind the price, Scott. I don't know if it's like this mental block thing.

It happens every year for me in fantasy, actually. someone who was drafted so late the previous year, and this really shouldn't affect us. If you believe in the player, then you believe in the player. But he was drafted outside the top 350 last year. He was a free agent pickup for a lot of people. And now Cedric Mullins is being drafted inside the top three rounds.

So it is a big price tag to pay. Fell off a little bit in the second half. You know, does Stackass numbers say he was probably played a little bit over his head. So I like the player, Scott, but I do not like the price tag for Cedric Yeah, I mean, that's always difficult to navigate. And it seems like I am more inclined than most evaluators to give those surprise breakthrough players the benefit of the doubt going into the next season. I almost never rank them at face value. And, you know, as concerned as you are about the price tag for Cedric Mullins going in the back half of round three, or I guess technically,

the front half of round three. Some boy in round three. As worried as you are about that price tag, you know, that's not giving him full credit for the player he was last year. He was the sixth the best hitter in Roto last year, the only 30-30 guy. So, you know, everybody's discounting him a little. It's just how much stock do you put in the performance

how likely do you think he is to turn back into a pumpkin? I have a lot of faith in it because even though you mention he kind of came back to Earth a little in the second half, that was really just in batting average. He had 261 in the second half, which you'll still take a 261 batting average from a 30-30 guy. 14 of those 30 home runs came in the second half, 14 of the stolen bases came in the second half.

Very good pace for both of those still. And the 260 batting average that he regressed to was basically what his expected batting average was showing all season. So it was kind of a very predictable decline. And like I said, not enough to really change his high-end standing. So obviously, we've talked about it the past couple weeks. All the changes they're making to Camden Yards is really just in left field. And I think every single one, yeah, I got this freight chart.

pulled up right now, every single one of his home runs was to straightaway center. The rest were all to right center or right field. So the changes that are happening in Camden Yards shouldn't impact Mullins at all. And for that kind of power speed combo, I think a third round pick is, you know, I'd rather invest in him than Ozzy Albies. I know Ozzy Albies is probably a safer pick, but he might only get. give you two thirds of Mullen's home runs, he might only give you half of Mullen steals. And you call yourself a Braves fan, Scott. How dare you know. This shirt I'm wearing right now is actually an Aussie-Lby's jersey. Oh, just take it off. I'll have the guy. What size are you,

Scott? With his name printed on my back. What size shirt do you wear, Scott? Large. Okay, so what we're going to need you to do is after we finish the podcast, you pack that shirt up, you ship it to me. It's going to be mine now. and then I'll wear it here on the podcast. Okay. Don't see how that works. I mean, I don't know. You're talking...

Texas Rangers cap. You ever speak of any Rangers while you're wearing that cap, Frankie? Never, Scott. I mean, you know, I can't quit my boy Nathaniel Lowe and Willie Calhoun with an ADP of 400 or something. How do you feel about... I don't know, who's the Rangers?

How do you feel about Adolice Garcia, huh? Eh, don't love him. Marcus Semyon. He's on the bus list. We spoke about it. on yesterday's podcast. Let's move into Teasca Hernandez. It seems like we've all done a complete 180 on Teoscar.

Last year we were worried about the price tag. I think he was going inside the top 60 or 70 picks, something like that. But the improvements, they held. We didn't know whether to trust what he did in the shortened season. Not only did they hold, but he got better. The strikeout rate, he cut it even more, hits a lot of line drives.

And obviously in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball, I think there's a chance that the batting average regresses a tad. You know, maybe the strikeouts, you know, rise back up a little bit. I don't know if he can maintain this 25% strikeout rate when we have so much data of him striking out more than that.

But even if he does, if he hits 270 in the middle of that lineup with power and a little bit of speed, I think he's still going to be really good. So I don't mind. I don't mind a late third round pick on Teoska Hernandez. How about you? Yeah, it still feels wrong to me. And, of course, I was

to Oscar Hernandez was the bust pick I was pushing the hardest last year. I was as confident in him as anyone that I was as confident as anyone that he would come crashing back down after thriving over a very small sample in 2020. But it was mostly because of that strikeout rate and going from striking out to about a third of the time

to about a quarter of the time. I mean, that's huge. The fact that he is going, to contribute a useful number of steals and you know he could he's he's a fast runner so i don't have a lot of uh concerns about him giving you steals in that 12 to 15 range again i think that's you can you can you can you can you can bank on that happening it still feels wrong to see him listed there between aaron judge and george springer in a two long time standouts in the early rounds of fantasy drafts,

just mainstays there. But I think he deserves it. I agree. I can't find much to criticize him for, except, you know, obviously he doesn't have quite the track record of those other two. You know, I'm looking into the splits for Teasca.

I wanted to see how he performed at each of the ballparks that the Blue Jays played in last year, because obviously they played in three different home parks. for various reasons, and he only hit 241 with a 692 OPS in 36 games in Rogers Center. That's surprising to me. That tells me, can he be better?

Is that possible? I don't know. It's just surprising that he was that bad and somewhere that's usually a pretty good park to hit in. So something that catches my eye a little bit with Teasca Hernandez. You mentioned George Springer, Scott, and I really like the value on both Springer and Bucks

in the ADP, right around, 57 for Springer, 65 for Buxton, I think they have as much talent as anybody in this tier. You're just getting them at a discount because of the injury risk, which I get it. It makes sense. Like we have to bake that into their price somehow. But if they can stay healthy,

I mean, there is definitely a chance that they could smash this ADP. Yeah, Buckston especially. I mean, Buckston showed first round type potential in between his usual injuries last year. I mean, that, that, he still hasn't cracked that nut staying on the field for even 120 games, right? I think he's had one season where he's played that many games. One season where he's played, gosh, one season where he's played even a hundred games.

Good grief. But he played 140 that year, Scott. Come on, give the guys some credit. That's amazing. Yeah, so I mean obviously that is a big hurdle for him But never in those other years and You know it goes back to age 21 He's now entering his age 28 season

But he's been around a while and never has Prior to last year had he delivered First Round caliber production Of 1,05 OPS about at 306 And just the quality of contact backs up the power production The 19 home runs in those 61 games games. He's always been somebody who could contribute stolen bases. So just, you know, very similar upside outcome to like a Luis Robert, I think, who of course is a tier above this. But that,

that extensive injury history obviously, obviously bumps down Buxton to where he is here in the near elite tier instead of the elite. All right. Let's move on to the next best things tier. And This ranges from rounds 5 through 10 and includes Eloi Jimenez, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, Brian Reynolds, Tyler O'Neill, Kyle Schwerber, John Carlos Stanton, Mitch Hanager, Randy Roserana, Chris Bryant, Cody Bellinger, and Christian Yellish. Quite a few names in this tier, and you'll learn throughout the other tiers that there's a lot of names in all these tiers. Overall, there's just a lot of outfielders to talk about. And Scott, I think we can make the argument, or at least maybe I can.

that Eloi Jimenez and Nick Cassiano should be in the tier above. I know Eloy is coming off an injury plague season, played return from a torn peck, clearly was not himself, even when he returned after that. And Nick Cassiano is a free agent. He's been linked to the Phillies, the Miami Marlins. We'll see where he winds up. But yeah, Cassiano's was great last year.

And I feel like Eloy, before the injury, he was trending in the right direction. He was good as a rookie. He had over 30 home runs. he was even better in the short and season. It seemed like he was ready for the breakup, and then he got hurt. So I've definitely gone more to Chris's side in the Eloy Jimenez debate. I was kind of straddling the fence last year when you were very pro.

Eloy Jimenez, Chris was a little bit more of a pessimist. Not that, not that I think Chris did technically have Aloi Jimenez in his bus column, but not so much that he was making a case for him to be a bus. just that he would be kind of just an average power hitter, you know, kind of what Nolan Aeronado has become with the Cardinals. And I think the data we got on Aloi Jimenez last year, and really the data we've seen throughout his career at this point, points to him being more of that.

He's young enough that he could take another step forward. But I'm not interested in ranking him that way. So, you know, I was kind of split when I was making out these tiers. does Loy Jimenez belong in the near elite with the George Springer's, as a dirt does he belong in this tier here with J.D. Martinez and Brian Reynolds, and ultimately I decided the latter. Nick Castellanos, yes, if we were assessing him on last year's numbers, if we were assessing him as if he's still going to be with the Reds,

then he would be a tier higher for sure. He hit 309 with 34 home runs at 939 OPS. I mean, he was a legitimate stud last year, but he's a free agent. And the home away splits 359 with an 1109 OPS at home last year versus 260 with a 772 OPS on the road. And of course, we've seen over the course of his career. I mean, the whole case for him being a breakout last year is that he was playing in a much smaller park than he was used to in Detroit.

So it really just depends where he signs. I think the most likely scenarios, I'm going to keep him here in the next best things, expecting him to regress a little more to his Detroit numbers where he's more of a 25 homer guy than a 35 homer guy. But if he does wind up in another hitter's paradise, then I could move him back up a tier for sure. Yeah, I could see the Phillies maybe pushing him into that previous tier

as well. It's a good part to hit in, I think a very solid lineup. Obviously, if Castellanos is a part of it, that enhances just how good they can be. So yeah, the Phillies would make a lot of sense. Miami, no, no, please no. Let Michael Conforto or someone else sign with the Miami Marlins. Tyler O'Neill is part of this tier, Scott, and he is a freak athlete. When you look at the stackass numbers, he is in the top five percentile in terms of sprint speed, in terms of max exit velocity, so power and speed, there's no doubt about it when it comes to Tyler O'Neill. But like Cedric Mullins, I just don't really like the price on Tyler O'Neill. He's going to pick ADP 54 right now, and he's dealt with some injuries, and obviously the

strikeout rate is massive sky. I mean, we're talking over 30%. So he impacts the ball very hard. Maybe he could just continue to overcome that strikeout rate, but all of those things that I'm considering injuries and that strikeout rate, I'm. I am not going to be using a fifth round pick on Tyler O'Neill. Well, you can understand why people are. I mean, if you just project his numbers out last year over,

let's see, he played 138 games, he just project him over 150. You know, he's closing in on a 40-20 season with a combating average. I get why people want to draft him based on what he did last year and, you know, he's had some prospect status. He finally put it together. And he saved his best for last hit over three. each of the last two months had 13 home runs in September with five steals.

Definitely left a good taste in everybody's mouth. And because he impacts the ball so hard, you know, I really want to believe it's legit. But yeah, that price tag is really high. And pretty much already presumes it's legit, right? It doesn't bake much downside at all. And throughout my career as a fantasy analyst, I've had a lot of success just betting against the guy

who struck out a ton the year before. It doesn't always work out. Obviously, it didn't work out last year with my Tayhasker Hernandez pick, although that's because he stopped striking out so much, right? He stopped doing the thing that made him so concerning. So, you know, there have certainly more in recent years. it really began with like Aaron Judge.

These 30% strikeout guys have not, you know, they've been able to find more consistent success at the major league level, not universally, but there have been, if they impact the ball hard enough, that is what allows them to overcome that strikeout rate. And Tyler O'Neill would seem to fit into that category, but it's only one year of seeing him do that. And that obviously raises,

some skepticism. So I tier him here with, you know, Nick Castagnanos, Lois, Brian Reynolds, you know, some pretty high-end outfielders. But realistically,

he's probably not going to be someone I draft from this tier because he'll be among the earlier players drafted from this tier. That's generally not how I approach the tiers. All right, Scott, a popular question that we will receive all offseason is what to do with Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Both guys basically imploded

last season dealt with injuries. Obviously, Bellinger, I think it was like a calf injury early on, but he was also coming back from the shoulder surgery. And now Christian Yelich for a couple of years now has been dealing with this back injury, a lingering back issue for him. And a couple of years ago, he fractured his kneecap. He hasn't blamed anything on that, but it wouldn't surprise me if maybe that's part of the issue as well. I mean, sounds pretty bad. So where are you at, Scotty? Cody Bellinger versus Christian Yelich.

I prefer Bellinger because I see a clearer path to him regaining what he lost. He's four years younger, first of all. And between the shoulder surgery and some ill-advised mechanical changes, you could understand how he just completely messed himself up. when Yelich, it's harder to figure out what's going on with him or if he'll even have time to get back on track. I kind of want to just put these guys in their own tier, right? Because they're so, they're so volatile, they're so boom or bust.

They could theoretically compete for the MVP this year. I mean, they've both had multiple years where they've put together that kind of stat line. But it's been a couple years since we've seen them do. anything like that. So I stuck them on the end here. You know, I think that's me being intellectually honest. I think if it came down to it, and particularly if you're looking at the back end of this tier

with Giancarlo Stanton, Mitch Hanigar, Chris Bryant, although he's likely to be drafted as a third baseman, if you got that whole group there, then I'd be willing to wait another round and just, you know, if I was looking at outfield, I'd be willing to wait another round. And whoever came back to me came back to me, even if it was Bellinger and Yellich, I'd be okay with it. But obviously, I have more comfort in a Chris Bryant or even a Mitch Hanigur than I do in Bellinger or Yelich. It's just also the tradeoff of how comfortable are you are versus what is the upside.

The upside for Bryant is pretty middling at this point. For Bellingerleger and Yelich, I still think there's more. Yeah, I feel like this is what fantasy is. all about, right? Scott, I mean, Bellinger and Yellich going around pick 100, isn't that where you want to take that shot? You want to take that upside swing. You know, we're not in the early rounds where you're still building your base and maybe you want to play things a little bit safer. We're at the point in the draft where you want to take that shot. And it wouldn't, I don't think it would really surprise anyone if Bellinger or Yelich, or both of them,

bounce back to give us first round value, second round value, something like that. So I think this is exactly the point in the draft where you want to take that shot. And I agree with you. I am more willing to take that shot with Cody Bellinger. I am on record, Scott. I want to be the Cody Bellinger guy this year. So last year, he led my bust article completely off of him with the shoulder surgery. I think another offseason further removed from that surgery.

Scott Boris, I know he's an agent for Bellinger. This is what he's supposed to do. But he's already talked about how he thinks Bellinger is going to be ready to go for spring, 100% healthy, and that he's going to bounce back. So, I put some weight on. that and I'm feeling really good about the price tag with Bellinger. This is someone I think perfectly where you want to take an upside shot in your draft. So yes, let's do it. You're right. Cody Bellinger over Christian Yellich, I'll let you keep your shirt. That's your prize.

The email of the day, Scott, before we hit the break. Since you are, this one's from Matthew. Since you are covering tiers, can you please discuss how you use tiers when drafting at the end of a snake draft? Are they even useful considering you can't count on a player being available two rounds later. So I should have asked you this when we started talking about the tier, Scott. Are the players within your tier, are they in the order of the way that they are ranked in your rankings? And the order that I rank them, yeah. Oh, all right.

So yeah, I think when you get to the end of a draft, you probably just take whoever's rank highest in the tier, right? Well, no, I think what he's asking is, you know, the idea behind using tiers is you target the position that's closest to depletion of the tier. the currently active tier, right? So that you're getting maximum value with every pick. But if you're having to wait 20 plus picks in between your picks, how much can you really anticipate who's going to be taken next? And I'll say, that's why I hate picking on the ends. It really makes it hard to apply the tier's approach

because it's a lot of forecasting that you don't have to do if you're picking right in the middle. That's my preferred spot. Smack dab in the middle of the, the rounds so that you're, you know, you're never having to wait that long in between picks. So I know most people prefer to pick on the ends, but because this is the approach I tend to use in drafts, it, it's not ideal. It's not ideal. So I don't have a great answer for you.

I just do the best I can. And, you know, maybe if you're talking about an infield position, where outfield's different. Outfield's a little different, obviously, because people draft multiple outfielders. But if you're talking about an infield position where everybody drafts more or less just one at each of those spots,

you know, maybe instead of thinking two is enough to wait at the position, I'll say three or four. If there's three or four still left in the active tier, I'll wait. But it kind of just depends. You know, I guess the real answer is I just don't, don't adhere to the tiers as strictly as I would if I was picking in the middle. And it's burned me a few times.

It's burned me a few times both directions, not adhering to them as closely as I normally would or adhering to them too closely and missing out on this huge run and having to settle for, you know, D.D. Gregorius at shortstop or something. So if you get a chance to pick your draft spot, try not to pick near it end if this is the approach you want to use. Oh, I think I misunderstood the question. I think I was thinking about it, like, just towards the end of your draft, like, the later rounds of your draft, but they're asking about, like, if your draft positioning.

Okay. Right. Yeah, so that makes sense. All right, because, all right. I was about, yeah. I was about, completely different about drafting. You were later on. You were going to my answer, Frank.

Yes, I was. I was thinking about how it was going to respond to it, but listen to Scott. Don't listen to me. Before we hit the break, our friends at Fantasy Football today are up for the best social media award. it'll take you less than 10 seconds. I've already voted for them. It took me like five seconds. So vote for our friends.

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When we return, we are going to talk about the fallback options here on fantasy baseball today. All right, let's jump back into the outfield tier, Scotty, and the fallback options, they range from picks 110 to 169. That is rounds 10 through 15, and it includes Austin Meadows, Tommy Edmund, Chris Taylor, Robbie Grossman, Hunter Renfro, Alex Verdugo,

Michael Brantley, Lordus Gurriel, Ryan Moutcastle, Joey Gallo and Jared Kelnick. Edmund, Guriel, Mountcastle, and Gallo are a tier lower in points. Brantley and Verdugo are a tier lower in Rhodo. I understand if you're listening to this. You got all that? Yeah, it might be confusing to listen along. So I would say pull up the article so you can follow along with the tiers.

And let's talk about a few of these players. Got how much do you trust the, let's go with the breakout seasons of Robbie Grossman and Hunter Renfro. Grossman, some power, some. speed. Renfro broke out in the power department over 30 home runs. He did that with Boston last year, has now been relocated to the Milwaukee Brewers, which is still a pretty good ballpark to hit in. So how much do you trust these breakout seasons? What's the name of the Brewers Park now? I should know this by now. Oh, it's...

Miller Park for so long. American Family Field, I believe it is. Okay. It's too close to great American Ballpark. But that's part. American Family Field. Yes, that is what it's called. very wholesome, that name. I mean, it's one of the best hitters' parks. It's made, it's been kind of a kingmaker in fantasy in recent years. And I don't know how much more into a king Renfro needs to be made. But I think there's a chance he takes even another small step forward this year. You know, he hit the majority of his home runs last year on the road.

So it's not like he was just, you know, relying on the green monster out there at Fenway Park. So I do trust his breakout pretty well. He lowered his strikeout rate himself to around 22%. Much better strikeout rate than I ever thought we'd see from somebody like him who's pretty much just a power bat and nothing else. But could he be like a poor man's Mitch Hanigar? I think he could.

I think he could. I don't think he has an enormously high ceiling. I couldn't see him ranking among the near elite next year. But that's kind of this whole tier. It's either guys with, well, first of all, none of the guys have really early round upside, I don't feel like. And a lot of the guys have serious question marks. Not at all confident that any of these guys are somebody you're going to draft and hold on to for the full season. But among them, Renfro is probably one of the ones.

I'm more confident in. Grossman, you know, he's already in his mid-30s and just got a chance to be a full-time player and make good on it. But with low batting average, still, you're getting 20-20 production, at least that's what you got from last year, and the possibility of that happening again,

happening again at his price tag is very alluring. He's always had good on-based skills, even when he was a part-time player with other teams. So that should keep him in the lineup. and, you know, even if he's not providing as much power as he did last year. So I think there's a chance he comes close to last year's numbers. And I think where he's getting drafted on average is a perfectly reasonable price weighing all the pros and cons there. Yeah, even if he takes a little step back, the Seamer projections have Robbie Grossman for 17 homers, 15 steals, same batting average,

239, that's still valuable as a third, probably better as like a fourth outfielder if you're playing in a Roto League. He does see an uptick and value if your categories Roto League plays with OBP. He had a 14.6% walk rate. So nice, nice little value piece there from Robbie Grossman. Another name in here, Scott, that I find interesting and I actually wrote up in my breakouts 1.0 is Jared Kelnick. So just really kind of trusting

the prospect pedigree here. We know the story from last year. He got called up. He was absolutely awful. He got sent back down, came back up for the second half of the season, struggled for most of it, and then turned it on in September. The question is, how much stock do we actually want to put in that? Because it was only 28 games, but he hit 238, seven homers, three steals.

Strikeout rate was down to 25% during that time. And he had an 849 OPS. So, I mean, that sounds a lot like that. the player we were hoping to get from Kelnik, you know, hoping for a better batting average, but some power, speed, strong OPS. How much weight do you put on that strong September for Jared Kielnick? Look, do I think he's just going to be who he was in September? That's just the expected baseline for him going forward?

No, I don't think it's that straightforward. But it does, it does go a long way to keeping my expectations. relatively high. You know, it's salvaged his spot in my rankings, basically. He might be buried to the same degree Joe Adele is. I mean, I have Joe Adele a tier lower than Jared Kalnick. Even, you know, there were similarly rated prospects, but Jared Kelnick has shown, well, he hasn't failed quite as miserably as Joe

Adele has, when you take into account the 2020 numbers as well. and also he's he's had that big September where he looked like he might be getting to figure it out. So yeah, I mean, I take back what I said a minute ago where nobody in this tier has early round upside. I think Jared Kelnick does. But how likely is he to make good on it

this upcoming year after very uneven performance as a rookie? I don't think it particularly good, but you do have to, you do have to factor it into your assessment of him that, okay, there is this 90th percentile outcome or whatever, or whatever, where he puts up Kyle Tucker-like numbers, you know? Yeah. And so that might make him a pretty attractive target here. Yeah, I agree.

Exactly what I said about Bellinger and Yellich. Obviously, those guys are much, much more proven than Jared Kelnik, but this is the point in the draft where you want to take a shot on that upside. And admittedly, I wish the ADP was a little bit lower for Jared Kelnik. it's 122.7, but you're talking about the 10-11 turn in a 12-team league. Yeah, I mean, if you're getting him as your third outfielder, obviously, I hope you have some pretty safe options before him, but it seems like a pretty good point in the draft to take a shot on some upside with Jared Kelnick. Let's move on to the last resorts tier, and this is a massive range of 20 players

spanning picks 139 in ADP to 286. You mentioned Joe Adele, while talking about Jared Kellanick. Scott, I wanted to ask you about Adele and Alex Kirloff, who kind of look like post-hyped sleepers, right? Like, we don't know what we're going to get from either player. Kiroloff is coming back from wrist surgery and Joe Adele to this point has been mostly underwhelming, though I like that the strikeout rate was down

when he got called back up last year. What do you think about Kiroloff and Adele potentially as post-hyped sleepers in this range? Yep. I think both of them fit the bill. I don't think either of them has gotten nearly enough opportunities in the majors yet for us to have a verdict on who they're going to be. They're both still very young, obviously. And, you know, for a while last year, remember Alex Kierloff was playing through that wrist injury. And prior to it, and it was a very small sample. The whole season was a very small sample, but particularly if you're dividing it up, pre-injury, post-injury, his

his bat at ball numbers were looking at lead. He got off to a slow start statistically, but the underlying numbers suggested he had, you know, the way he was impacting ball was the ball was like that of a stud. So I wish we could have seen the full season play out. I wish he hadn't hurt the wrist again, but now that it's been operated on,

hopefully it's behind him and he can hit the ground running. And I am just as high on him this year. as I was last year, provided we don't hear of any setback or anything with the wrist. Adele, you know, he wasn't great after returning

from the minors last year, but in the 35 games he played, he struck out 22.9% of the time, which is actually a big improvement even for what he did at AAA, striking out 29.2% of the time prior to his call-up. Yeah, no.

I don't know that he's only going to be a 20% strikeout guy. I kind of doubt that, but, like, I was just comforted to see he wasn't eaten a lot of, by Major League pitching again. Remember in 2020, after he got called up, clearly rushed. He struck out over 40% of the time. It was just a total disaster. So I'm hopeful that there was

some actual progress made for Adele. And if there was, then the tools are pretty tantalizing. He's going to provide that speed element that Kirilloff won't. Akil Badu, last one I wanted to mention, pretty intrigued by his skill set, some power, some speed. And he was striking out a ton early last year, made some adjustments really strong in terms of the walk rate, and he lowered that strikeout rate. I don't know if you saw this video that's been a picture that's been circulating Scott of Akele Badoo in his offseason workouts. The guy is jacked up. He's jacked out. So just search Achille Badoo. Click on the photos on Twitter, and it'll be one of the first ones you see. Not that you want to draft him just based on that, but yeah, I'm pretty intrigued by the skills.

Yeah, I'm intrigued by it too and I was tempted I haven't actually written the column yet, but I have the players picked out for for breakouts 1.0 and I was tempted to include him in it, but he was so bad against left-handers. Grinidad he was a rookie, but they weren't giving him full-time at bats against left-handers already and I don't think he earned more time against left-handed pitchers. And the whole performance was just so uneven. and strikeouts were kind of high. The walks were, you know, especially compared to what he was doing in the minors.

I expected more from the walks for him. I'm not confident unless his workouts have, are going to impact his power production. Maybe they could, but, you know, that doesn't, that's not always how it plays out. Muscles don't always equate to more home runs. I'm not sure he has a particularly high power ceiling. Not saying he couldn't hit 20 home runs, potentially, but I don't think it's going to be an easy 20 home runs for him.

So, you know, between the playing time concerns and the strikeout concerns and the power concerns, how high is the ceiling, really? I think he belongs in this tier. I don't think he belongs in the same tier as Robbie Grossman. I think Robbie Grossman is a better bet for a 2020 season than it killed the do. All right. Yeah, I don't love the splits either. Struggle big time against lefty, so we'll see if he can make adjustments there.

But yeah, intriguing is one Akil Badu. Let's move on to the deep leaguers. There are 19 names in this tier. And two that stood out to me, Scottie, are two that are in your sleepers 1.0 article. That is Connor Joe, who we've talked about quite a bit this offseason. And Raphael Ortega,

who got an opportunity to play with the Chicago Cubs, much like his teammate Frankswindell. He's kind of just been lurking around. The majors, the minors, has this journeyman feel and was pretty good. some power, some speed, decent OVP. Tell us more about Connor Joe and Raphael Ortega. So Connor Joe is in my sleepers 1.0, Rafael Ortega.

Yeah, I guess you mentioned that, right? Yeah, yeah, so they're even a tier lower here. But that's partly because you don't have to pay more to get them than this. They're barely being drafted in 12-team leagues. They might not even be drafted. And like Connor Joe is the one I'm most excited about because he had taken over as the Rocky's leadoff hitter last August and was delivering big number.

His point per game average, I think, was like mechanickers in that role. And, you know, obviously all the advantages of course field. great OBP skills, would you love to see from a lead-off hitter, particularly in an environment where runs are easy to come by like they are at Coorsfield. I just,

I think he could be a true must-star player in fantasy. But we need some assurances about the playing time there. Just because the Rockies were willing to give it to him last August doesn't mean they will to begin the season. And I'm not sure they're going to say much about it, honestly prior to the season.

So I don't know how much his draft stock is going to improve, but he's definitely somebody I like to target in the late rounds. Raphael Ortega, I think, has been pretty clear platoon concerns, like I said, for Akil Badu. But he's a better contact hitter than

Badoo. I think the power production is similar. I think the speed production, maybe give a slight edge to Badoo there. But I think Ortega has an outside shot at being a 2020 guy as well. And at least against right, handers, he should be the lead off man for the Cubs. Let's wrap up with a few email questions here, Scotty.

This one's from Alexander Chaco. As injuries mount year by year, it seems to me, multi-position eligibility is the next new desirable factor. Given this, I need help selecting two keepers in my 15-team, 5-5-Roto League. 22 slots with eight pitchers, but only one IL slot. Three keepers, moving up three rounds per year. but one, Tucker, round 17, is a no-brainer.

So he's keeping Kyle Tucker. For my two other spots, I am torn between the following. Single-position players versus multi-position guys. Dylan Carlson, these are the outfield-only players. Dylan Carlson, around 12, Kelnick, in round 14. Jesse Winker, round 16. Colton Wong, round 18. And then these are the multi-position players.

Ryan Mountcastle in round 9, Alex Kerloff in round 20. Brennan Rogers in round 22. We need two of those, Scottie. Only two. Okay. I would keep... I think I know who you're going to say. Yeah, moving up three rounds per year.

Okay, but it's only three keepers. So I don't know that you need to focus that much on the long term at all here. So I'm probably saying no to Kelnick as a result of that. and going with Jesse Winker in round 16 and Brendan Rogers in round 22. And that's exactly what I would have predicted. This next one's from Tyler Simmons, loving all the off-season content.

I was eliminated in football very early, so I've been with you guys since about mid-October. Awesome. Yes. We appreciate it, Tyler. Yes. You can listen to us either way. Yeah, it's...

You try and balance both. I mean, I do it. Scott kind of does it. Anyway, 12-team Keeper League. Keep five for three. years max, head-to-head points, snake draft, who do you like better, as a final keeper, Justin Verlander,

in the 26th round, Alec Manoa in the 26th round, or Byron Buxton, in the 11th. I'm already keeping Devers, Corey Seeger, Logan Webb, and fastball Freddy. Although fastball no more.

Throws that slider quite a bit. I mean, they're all good keepers. It doesn't say whether it's roto or points, does he? Oh, had to head points. Oh, okay. I don't have points. I think we have to take one of the pitchers.

Do you take the old... Well, I was Lena Buxton until he said head to head points. Do you take the old Wiley veteran, Scott, or do you go with a young buck? I like Manoa. Keep five for three years, max. Does this price stay locked in for those three years? Doesn't mention it. For three years, max, I think I got to go with Manoa, Scott.

with the three years. I don't know if Verlander's going to pitch for three years. I don't know if he's going to make it through one year, even though I do like Verlander, but... Yeah. Give me Manoa, round 26. I just, I'm really confident in the impact Verlander's going to make this year.

I think I take Verlander. All right. Scotty on Verlander, I am on Alec Manoa. This last one's from Hugh. I am in a head-to-head points league. We get to keep five guys. Also traded for the first overall pick, which will be Juan Soto.

I had him for three years and had to put him back in the pool, so I gave up Corbyn Burns for the first overall pick to get Juan Soto. Thoughts on that move? All right. So that's first, Scott. Giving up Corbin Burns to get Juan Soto first overall. Makes sense, right? I would...

Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. All right, so the keepers for Hugh are Bryce Harper, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddie Freeman. Then I need to keep two of the following. on Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor. Alvarez could round out my outfield. Breggman worries me, but third base is so shallow. Lindor is in a deep position, so I am stuck. Two of those names, Scotty. Alvarez and Breggman, but you know I'm the low guy on Lindor.

And, yeah, you don't already have a shortstop, I guess, but you mentioned in here it's a deep position. I think you'll be okay, finding another shortstop. Yeah. As much as I'm I like Lindor, I think it comes down to if other people in your league are keeping third baseman, which makes it even harder to get a usable third baseman in your draft, then I think I'm right going with Bregman, especially, I mean, he's so good in head toad points leagues as well. So definitely Yurton-Alvarez. I think it's close between Bregman and Lindor, maybe look at some other rosters. In a vacuum, I would still take Lindor though, but it is close. We're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today.

We will be back again on Tuesday morning. Bye-bye.