Fantasy Baseball Today - Overvalued Fades! Jazz Chisholm, Felix Bautista & More! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Which players are being overvalued based on early ADP? Find out next on Fantasy Baseball today in 5. Welcome into FBT and V on Saturday, December 28th. I am, for example, joined by Chris Towers. And let's take a look at some overvalued players based on early ADP from the NFBC so far in the month of December. Chris, we will start with you. Yeah, we'll start with Jacob de Grom, who is a top 10 starting pitcher in NFC ADP.

Starting point is 00:00:28 And I just can't justify that. This is a guy who has not thrown 100 innings, 100 innings in a season since 2019. That's a really long time ago. He's not getting any younger. He's coming back from his second Tommy John surgery. I know we saw him, I think was three starts last year, and he looked okay. He looked pretty good. Didn't look like the pre-injury version of himself.

Starting point is 00:00:49 The velocity was down about a mile and a half per hour. Whiff rate on the slider was down quite a bit. It was, you know, in the 50% range pre-injury, it was more like 36%. still good, not elite. And to justify a number 9 SP pick, with the injury risk and the lack of innings that Jacob de Grom is almost certainly going to give you, he has to be elite to even come close to this.

Starting point is 00:01:13 If he throws 130 very good innings, this is probably not a good pick. He needs to throw 130 elite innings. He probably needs to throw 150 very good innings to justify this kind of pick. And I just don't think that's a particularly good bet. I know it's Jacob de Grom. He's really, really good when he's on the mound.

Starting point is 00:01:32 There's probably going to be a point in April when Jacob deGrom is healthy. If he gets to April healthy, which is not at all guarantee, where I'm going to think it's dumb that I don't have Jacob de Grom on my team. There will probably be a point later on in the season when he's not pitching where it feels like the right move. And I just can't justify this kind of cost. All right. For me, you're going to learn with my picks. I just don't really like to have fun.

Starting point is 00:01:54 And that's exactly why I have Jazz Chisham as overvalued with an 80%. He has 25.9. He is the second third baseman off the board. You can dream on the upside. Totally get that. 46 games with the Yankees. He had 11 home runs, 18 steals. A 150 game pace.

Starting point is 00:02:11 35 home runs, 58 steals there for Jazz. This was also the first time he's played more than 124 games in a season. And he suffered a sprained UCL in his left elbow in August. After he returned, didn't perform as well,

Starting point is 00:02:25 didn't look particularly good in the postseason. either. I just think as a two, three turn pick, it's a little bit rich for me on Jazz. I think he should be more like a fourth round pick for a fantasy. I think there's a little bit more risk than people are kind of letting on right now with Jazz Chisholm. Chris, over to you for another overvalued player. Yeah, you and I have some similarities in the players we're avoiding. The big difference is yours are a lot of hitters with injury risk and mine are pitchers with injury risk. And I just think we know pitchers all have injury risk. There is no such thing as a safe pitcher. Why invite more risk?

Starting point is 00:02:59 And that's my concern when you're talking about Felix Bautista, who is the number seven relief pitcher off the board right now in drafts, 57.8 overall. Part of it, as we talked about on the full show, is just there's a drop off at the relief pitcher position right around the six or seven mark where ahead of him you've got Ryan Halsley and Mason Miller, guys who look like legitimately elite pitchers, Ricella Glacius.

Starting point is 00:03:26 actually Ricella Glacius slightly after Felix Bautista, which is part of the problem. I get it. The last time we saw Felix Bautista in 2023, he was the best pitcher, relief pitcher in fantasy. He was worth $27. Despite only like 33 saves,

Starting point is 00:03:43 he was that dominant. 16 K per 9, sub 2 ERA, wasn't quite as good the year before, but still very good 12.9 K per 9, 2.19 ERA. Really good pitcher. That was before Tommy John's surgery.

Starting point is 00:03:55 And we assume guys, will come back from Tommy John's surgery on pitch basically at the same level. It's not at all a guarantee. And it's being treated like it's a guarantee right now. And with Felix Bautista, the problem is we haven't seen him yet. We might get to spring training and he's pumping 98 mile an hour fastballs and blowing guys away. And I'm fine with an RP7 price. But right now at the end of December, two months before we'll see him pitch in a game,

Starting point is 00:04:19 I just can't justify it. Next step for me is Oneo Cruz who has an ADP of 43. He is the seventh shortstop off the board. in the 15th outfielder, still just 26 years old. And coming off a solid season, hit 259, 21 home runs, 22 steals, his first year back from ankle surgery. We haven't seen that massive upside yet from O'Neill Cruz. It still could happen, but I have questions.

Starting point is 00:04:44 30% strikeout rate this past season. He has not been able to hit lefties so far in his career. It's a 202 batting average, 40% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Like Jazz, I think there's still. big upside for someone like O'Neill Cruz. I just still think there's a lot of risk in the profile for him. And his ADP last year was 64. He's jumped up 21 spots year over year for reasons.

Starting point is 00:05:09 I don't really know. So I just think it's a little bit too early for O'Neill Cruz. He probably should be more like a sixth round pick than the fourth round pick he is currently being drafted to be. Chris, back over to you, unless you want to say something about O'Neill Cruz. Because it kind of... No, no, I want to be the one who... dumps on the exciting young guy this time.

Starting point is 00:05:29 So I'll say Roki Sasaki is the guy I'm going to avoid 75.480P. SP19 the month of December. It's ahead of guys like Bryce Miller, Bailey Ober, Luis Castillo, Aaron Nola. I don't know if I like him ahead of none of those guys. I have some concerns about Nola and Castillo. But the problem with Roky Sasaki, and it's going to sound very similar to the previous two guys, is he's missed a decent amount of time with injuries over the past couple of seasons, not as much as Bautiste in de Gras. He hasn't had the significant injury yet, but Rokie

Starting point is 00:06:01 Sizaki in his time in Japan has been limited to 33 starts over the past two seasons. He is 23 years old, has never thrown more than 130 innings in a season. And if that was all it was, maybe you can make the justification that, hey, this is one of the most talented pitchers in the world. Tyler Glass now was SP 20 in 134 innings last year. He can get there. The problem is we've never seen him pitch to the major league level and roki saki had a significant downturn in both his production and his stuff last season his fastball velocity was down almost two miles per hour between 2023 and 24 he's dealt with some arm injuries over the past couple of years i love the upside i am excited to watch roki sizaki i can't wait to see him in the majors he's not going to be on my team as my sp2 in

Starting point is 00:06:48 fantasy this last pick it hurts chris this one hurts i don't know how we got here. I was genuinely excited for this player entering the offseason, but it feels like everybody else is even more excited about Lawrence Butler, who has an ADP of 72 as the 18th outfielder off the board in the month of December. He did some great things this past season, 22 on runs, 18 steals, solid expected stats, strong exit velocities. He's hit lefties. It looks like a park upgrade going from Oco to Sacramento. He's also going ahead of Teoscar Hernandez. Renton Doyle, Sayas Suzuki, Luis Robber, Brian Reynolds, Anthony Santander. If you look at drafts only in October at the NFBC, there were 22 drafts done.

Starting point is 00:07:33 Lawrence Butler's ADP was 107. He has moved up 35 spots. I understand steamer projections. He had a really good November. Steamer projections came out and the projections look really good for Lawrence Butler. So I think that's driving a lot of this. But man, to move up 35 spots in, in. two months worth of ADP for no reason, really.

Starting point is 00:07:56 I mean, nothing has happened. It's, it's a top 75 pick for a guy who was not on fantasy radars at all a year ago. Wasn't on fantasy radars really until like mid July. Because if you remember, he was, he got sent. He had a really bad start to the season, got sent back down to AAA, came back up and had a massive July, 1210 OPS in the month of July. Really good August, 886 OPS. September was fine. It was like a 730 OPS. He was okay. He didn't completely fall off the map. I'm not going to write him off because of that. But it's a top 75 pick for a guy who's had two good months at the majors. Yeah. Sounds an awful lot like Nolan Jones a year ago, doesn't it? You didn't have to do the Nolan Jones thing, Chris, but I do get where you're coming from. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball.

Starting point is 00:08:53 today at 5 and we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Overvalued Fades! Jazz Chisholm, Felix Bautista & More! (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

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