Fantasy Baseball Today - Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto Are Back! Early 2022 First Base Rankings (10/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 14, 2021

The Braves advance to the NLCS thanks to a clutch Freddie Freeman home run (1:00)! ... News and notes (4:40): Carlos Rodon's velo was back up and Lance McCullers left with a forearm injury. ... Vladimir Guerrero finally came through on his upside in 2021 (8:10). Is Paul Goldschmidt back? ... What happened with Jose Abreu this season (19:05)? Is Joey Votto back? ... What went wrong with these guys (35:32)? ... Let's dive into Scott's 2022 first base rankings (42:44)? Will Pete Alonso come at a discount? Can Rhys Hoskins be discount Max Muncy? ... We wrap up with first base prospects you need to know (1:01:27).  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Center field. What is magnificent? Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality.

Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam. Happy Thursday. And welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today, presented by Lining Cougals. More on their great variety of beverages later on. in the podcast, October 14th, Frank Stamphill, joined by Scotty Dubbs, Scott White, here to talk all about the first base position, aka Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But first, congrats, Scotty, your Braves advancing to the NLCS, and it's only fitting that the reason they are playing and advancing

is because of Freddie Freeman, who hit the go-ahead home run off of Josh Hader, two of the best at their position in all of baseball. And we're talking about first basement today. So I thought it made a ton of sense. How you doing? Oh, yeah. That does make a ton of sense. I was happy to see that for Freddie Freeman.

Hey, Freddie Freeman, probably right now is my favorite player in baseball. It would be natural that I'd pick somebody from the team I'm a fan of, right? Oh, yeah. And I own two Freddie Freeman jerseys. So I think it's fair to say he's my favorite player. So, you know, I was happy for that reason. And also because I feel like he had kind of developed a reputation, like an anti-clutch playoff reputation because of what happened in the NLDS against the Cardinals two years ago,

which was a, you know, a devastating loss for Braves fans in a series that was pushed to, to five games, and you'll remember that was when Mike Fultenevich had that meltdown in game five and hasn't been the same since. But Freddie Freeman had a terrible series, and he was playing hurt. So, you know, it was understandable, but I know a lot of Braves fans gave him grief after that. So it was nice to see him come through in the clutch.

Good for the... Two years in a row, NLCS. They hadn't been... Prior to last year, they hadn't been to the NLCS since 2001 when I was still in high school. almost 20 years between NLCS appearances. And, you know, back in 2001 when they went to the NLCS,

they played to the Diamondbacks, who of course then went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series. Come on. I mean, everybody was a Diamondbacks fan then, except for maybe you, Frank. Do we got to do this, Scottie? Come on, man. Like, I tried to get the podcast off on the right foot. Congratulations.

The Braves are in the NLCS. And you come in here talking about the Diamondbacks. How dare you? Sorry, sorry. But what I was going to say is, like, back in 2001, when they went to the World Series for, I'm sorry, when they went to the NLCS for, you know, who knows how many times over the previous decade, they had done that. Like, I remember, I just had a lot going on in my life then, you know, I was a senior in high school. And I remember, like, that was the one playoff series the Braves were in that I don't remember paying much attention to. I was kind of taking it for granted that they were in the NLCS again, you know?

And then they go almost 20 years before advancing again, before last year. But now they've done it two years in a row. So no right to complain, clearly. And that's it for... It just goes to show you if your team is good, don't take it success for granted because it's not going to be good forever. That is definitely a fair statement. And that is all for today's Atlanta Braves history lesson. No, no, no.

Seriously, though, I am all in on the National League, Scotty. Whoever it is, we're going for them. The Braves, the Dodgers, the Giants, it doesn't matter. I will be rooting for the National League over whoever advances between the Astros and the Boston Red Sox, obviously, because I'm a hater. If the Dodgers, however, lose to the Giants in game five. We're recording this Wednesday night, so yeah, you'll hear it on Thursday. The game hasn't happened yet. But if the Dodgers lose, I will have guys.

gotten every single division series prediction wrong. So don't take my advice when it comes to predicting a playoff series because clearly I am not very good at it. Before we actually get into First Baseman, I did just want to talk about a few news and notes, things from the playoffs. Carl Sordaun did make a start game four against the Houston Astros. He averaged 95.8 miles per hour on his fastball,

which was a very welcome site. It was the highest game average for his fastball. fastball since August, and he actually maxed out at 99.4 miles per hour. So if you were watching this one, he was clearly amped up and hopefully, I don't know, hopefully he didn't overexert himself and, you know, this pushes him back further. But everything that I've seen, you know, it seems like he came out of the start. Okay, he's fine. He's healthy, hopefully. What did you say he averaged on his fastball? 95.8 miles per hour. Okay. I thought for a second he said 98.5. No, no, no. I mean, that would really be something. I saw it. I hit not.

99, but averaging 98.5. No, yeah, I was after a steep velocity drop in September, where remember his starts were spaced out, and most of them were short. It was nice to see that he still had that velocity in him. He only went to in two-thirds innings against Astros. He threw just 56 pitches. But it was, it was, you know, based on the concerns we had for Carlos Rodonnet,

it was ending the season on a high note for his fantasy value. I still think the biggest determinant in how we rank him next year is going to be just how sought after he is in free agency. Does he get a one-year proof-it deal or does he get a big multi-year offer? Like he's one of the best pitchers available on the market, that might go a long way. We usually don't talk about that a player's market value impacting his fantasy value. But I think Carlos Rodan's case, it makes sense. For sure.

And we have to make sure that he passes his physical. That will obviously tell us a lot about where he's at physically. But yeah, I mean, he is an unrestricted free agent. We'll see what happens with Carlsford on this offseason. Lance McCullors was the opposing pitcher in that game, and he actually left his start with right forearm discomfort. There's really not much information right now. I was searching the interwebs, the tweeter machine,

and could not find anything on Lance McCullors. So no update as of now. He did have Tommy John surgery back in November of 2018. So I'm not, you know, obviously that would be a worst case scenario. But I'm just pointing out that Lance McCullors does have a history of arm injuries. Jorge Soler. Now this is the unfortunate Braves news. He was bumped off of the Braves playoff roster right before game four as he tested positive for COVID.

So hopefully everything's all right with Jorge Holler. And last but not least, this isn't really fantasy related. I guess one day it could be, depending on what kind of moves they make. But the Cubs are finalizing a deal to make Carter Hawkins, their new general manager. He was the assistant GM in Cleveland for the past five years. And before we get into first base, again, this Sunday, it's an NFL on CBS doubleheader, starting at 9.30 a.m. Eastern with a special game in London between the dolphins and the Jaguars. Then at one, the afternoon schedule includes the Chargers and Ravens.

and the Chiefs on the road in Washington. That's followed by Dak and the Cowboys. Paying a visit to The Patriots will be up at 9 a.m. and then later at 12.30 to get you set for all of the action on the NFL today. That's all Sunday on the NFL on CBS. First base year in review presented by lining Cougal. So what we're going to do here, very similar to our previous podcast. We're going to look at the top 10 finishers at the position in Roto.

This is the 5 by 5 format, according to, CBS and number one, to nobody's surprise, Vladimir Guerrero finishes a year. Just an insane season. 311 batting average, 48 homers, 111 RBI, 123 run scored, actually led baseball. Four steals. He was the number one overall player in Roto this past season. And Scott, he just did what we were telling him to do, which was lower your ground ball rate. I mean specifically, right?

Like, hey, Vlad, I'm just going to call you up and tell you to do this. But basically, everybody in the industry was clamoring for the same thing. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit the ball extremely hard his first two years in the bigs. He just hit the ball on the ground way too much. So last offseason, he gets himself in shape. He loses a bunch of weight. Maybe playing first base, you know, helped him focus more on at the plate. He didn't, you know, he was not great defensively at third base.

So whatever the reason, he was awesome this year, an MVP candidate, and he will be a top five pick in fantasy baseball next year. Yeah, I mean, how impressive is it in this era where stolen bases are scarce, and yet they remain one-fifth of a hitter scoring in standard 5x5 leagues, that a non-base dealer could finish as the number one overall player. Like, every stolen base does so much to elevate a player in that roto formula, and you have Vlad who stole what, like two or three? Four.

Four, okay. And he finishes the number one. layer. He probably wouldn't of if Acuna and Tatis hadn't missed so much time to injury. Acuna especially. But still, it tells you just how productive he was

as a batter. And yeah, there's no argument for anyone else being number one at the position. Yeah, it's not close. As much as we love Freddie Freeman. It's Vladimir. He will be a top five pick next year. Some people might look at the home run to fly ball ratio, 26.5% by far

a career high and just automatically think, okay, well, you know, that could regress a little bit. I guess it's a possibility, but whenever I see these standout years in home run to fly ball rate, I look at average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. So basically, how hard are you hitting the ball when you put it in the air? And Vlad was sixth best in baseball this season, about four miles per hour higher than he was in 2020. So I think it kind of adds up. You know, why was his home run to fly ball rate so high? Because whenever he put the ball in the air, He hit it extremely, extremely hard.

That's why Juan Soto is able to maintain a high home runs to fly ball rate every single year. Paul Goldschmidt was number two at the position, a Renaissance season. 293 batting average, 31 homers, 99 RBI. 99, yes, I wrote RBI twice, Frank, what are you doing? 99 RBI, 102 runs scored, 12 steals, a legitimate five-category contributor, Paul Goldschmidt, turning back the clocks, hit the ball extremely hard. Scott, are you buying it? Are you buying the bounce back for Goldie?

Well, I'm not ranking him second. So I guess I'm hedging my bed a little there. But it's not like you look at the underlying numbers and say, okay, well, here's why this is unsustainable. You know, it's the argument against Paul Goldschmidt being as good as he was in 2021, is that in recent history he hadn't been that gut, right? It had been since 2017 that he delivered, I think he was a top 12 hitter in Roto this year,

so that he delivered that kind of top 12 stat line. 2017 was the last time Goldschmidt had done that. And he did that perennially before then. He was the first-round mainstay in fantasy, of course. Expected batting average, expected slug, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity. they were all the highest they've ever been for Goldschmidt

dating back to the introduction of Stadcast in 2015 so including part of his career when he was a first round mainstay the most questionable contribution was the 12 stolen bases he that was something he used to do in his prime he would steal 20 bases or so a year

15 to 20 so you know it's not like a total outlier for his career but he was only 34th percentile in sprint speed and had basically stopped running in the years leading up to 2021. So I don't know that it's reasonable to count on a double-digit steals total from Goldschmidt again.

But as I was saying about Vladimir Guerrero, every steel you get makes a huge difference for your standing in roto. So it doesn't take much, especially at a position like first base, for it to be something that sets you apart in that format, which isn't to say Roto was the only format Goldschmidt was good at.

Five-by-five scoring was the only one he was a stud in last year, 3.41 head-to-head points per game that put him behind only Guerrero, Matt Olson, and Freddie Freeman at the position. So, you know, either way, Goldschmidt was a stud, but I think there's going to be more of an urge to elevate him maybe to like the round three range,

more realistically probably round four in Roto, where you're hoping he delivers double-digit steals again. I can't blame people based on this year's production if they want to draft him that high, but it just goes back to the general philosophy of drafting a player coming off a huge season when he just turned 34 years old in September. So next year is technically his age 34 season.

He's getting up there, and I agree with you. It's probably not going to give double-digit steals again, but can he give six to eight and just kind of like chip in in the category the way someone like Freddie Freeman has who we'll talk about next? I think that's more realistic. Freddie Freeman, by the way, finishes as the third best first baseman this year and could have been much better, if not for a really, really slow start to the season where he hit 235 over the course of the first two months of the year

and then still wound up with a 300 batting average when it was all set and done. 31 homers, 120 run scored, did have eight steals. He finished as the 15th overall player in Roto this past year. I don't know that there's much else to add,

Scotty. I mean, he's also getting up there in age, but I think that the floor is so safe as an early second round pick. Just lock it in. Yeah, I mean, he's 32, so a couple years younger than Goldschmidt,

and just as consistent of a 300 hitter as you'll find, five of the past six, seasons, he's hit better than 300. And the one, he's hit 300 or better five of the past six seasons. And the one when he didn't, he had 295. The last time he didn't hit 295 or better was 2015. So, you know, and obviously he gives you the RBI production, the runs.

Because he batted mostly second this year, he finished with 120 runs as compared to 83 RBI. So it wasn't quite the balance we're used to seeing from in those two categories. but the combined total of the two is you can expect it to be around 200 if he stays healthy. Number four at the position, Matt Olson, a true breakout season for him, 271 batting average, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 101 run scored, also chips in four steals, not something that you should expect much from for Matt Olson. But even if he doesn't give you the steals, a legitimate three category contributor. and then if he can somehow maintain this 270 batting average,

he's like a three and a half category contributor there. So finishes 17th overall in Roto. A big, I mean, basically the main reason for this was the strikeout rate went from 31% last year to 16.8%. And then he just became amazing against lefties. This year 270 batting average, 962 OPS against left-handed pitching for his career,

243 batting average. 8.04 OPS, and that's including this season. So you can imagine before this year, those numbers looked way worse against lefties. So the only thing I would caution, fell off a little bit in the second half, Scottie, and I don't know that he'll be able to maintain this level of contact.

I like the gains that he made there, but everything else in his career says, I would expect a little bit of regression in the strikeout rate for Matt Olson. Maybe, but I do want to unlink those two thoughts. you just put together there because while his batting average did drop a little in the second half,

the strikeout rate didn't. Yeah, I noticed that. Yep. The first half he struck out 16.5% of the time the second half is 17.2. So basically the same. And I, you know, I just throwing that number out there

with no context. I mean, a 16% strikeout rate from somebody with his power potential. I mean, that is, you know, you'd love that. strikeout rate from a contact first middle infielder, you know, a 16% strikeout rate.

Matt Olson for the first few years of his career, and we thought batting average was going to always be a liability because he struck out too much. And you mentioned the platoon split was always horrible, and that improved drastically this year, too. He's only 27. He's going to be 28 on opening day next year just before opening day. So right in the prime of his career, and I'm very high on Matt Olson moving forward. I don't have a lot of concerns about him taking a step back.

Look, maybe this is just a new norm. We've seen players do this before with their strikeout rate. Cody Bellinger comes to mind where first couple of years in the league, you know, 25-ish percent, 25 to 30 percent in the strikeout rate, and then out of nowhere just makes great contact year in and year out. So maybe that's just a new norm for Olson. But until he does it another year, I'm going to assume that maybe it takes a step back

to at least 20%, something like that, which would put a bit of a damper on the batting average. Maybe, you know, you project 260 instead of the 270 that he hit this past season. Austin Riley finished fifth at the first base position, but he will not have first base eligibility next year. So we'll save him for the third base review and early preview.

Number six was Jose Ibrayu. a fine year, 262 betting average, 30 homers, 117 RBI. But this is one that you were right about, Scotty, because you basically said you didn't want to buy him coming off that MVP shortened season, where obviously 60 game season last year. And if you look at the underlying numbers, this year is a lot closer to every other year

he's been in the majors than it was to 2020. So he's going to be 35 years old in January. Batad ball date, it took a bit of a step. back. So I mean, he's fine. It's just, you know, you know what you're getting from Jose Abraham. The 2020 season being so short, I mean, it made sense he wasn't going to sustain that kind of production over a full season. He hadn't done anything like that really since his rookie year in 2014. So leaving 2020 out of it. 2021 was a career low batting average for Jose Abrae. Career 290 hitter, he hitter. He hit 21.

and that's for a guy who's going to be 35 next year. So he's definitely getting up there as well. You know, if this is the start of his decline, it's certainly not him dropping off a cliff. It's a small step back at an age where it makes sense for that to happen. The underlying numbers, you mentioned, they're similar to past seasons. So, you know, I don't know, I don't know.

I don't know that it's necessarily fair to say, okay, he hit 261 last year, so we can't really count on him for batting average going forward because, again, the underlying numbers are very similar. But you just don't know how it's going to play out for a guy who's entering his mid-30s, you know? Yeah, I think the main point is that his line drive rate

was the second lowest of his career, 18.7%. So that took a bit of a step back. Ground balls up a little bit. Fly balls up a little bit. Obviously, he's not someone that's going to be beating out ground balls. So that's why we see the BABIP

lowest of his career, 293. So I think it'll probably be better than a 260 hitter. Maybe it's somewhere in the 270 to 280 range. But modest home runs, really good RBI. I mean, basically since he's coming to the league, I would wager, I didn't look this up beforehand, that he is in the top five

in RBI since he's joined the join MLB back in 2014. He just, he knows how to, he knows how to drive back. Yeah, I mean, he led the league in 2020 and 2019,

led to AL, I should specify. And then he almost did in 2021 as well. And that's even, and that's in a down year. So, I mean, he just,

he knows, he just knows how to drive. It seems like it. You hesitate to say that because that's, that just, it seems so counter-intellectual, but, It would appear so, yes.

I do think the other first baseman we've talked about so far, Guerrero, Goldschmidt, Freeman Olson, they're a tier above Abraeu. I think we kind of see a teardrop here between Olson and Abraeu. Or really, I'd rank Goldschmidt last of those first four. But Abraeu obviously is somebody who's, you know, you're not going to be disappointed. you wind up with him as your starting first basement next year.

He's been not always great, but always good. Always at least good. Max Muncie finishes seventh at first base, 249 batting average, 36 home runs. He did kind of fall off in the second half where he hit 228 with an 809 OPS. Strikeouts were up. Line drives came down. Fly ball is really got a little bit out. of control, 47%.

I mean, that's a little high. It's a little high for Max Muncie there. So I know he was dealing with this elbow injury later in the season. I think as long as he's healthy, I'll be fine drafting him. I don't think he'll have some kind of exorbitant draft costs next year. Yeah, I like him better than a brayu. I think he's, I think you could put him in that tier above Brayu. Obviously, he's somebody who's going to be more valuable in points leagues than

than Roto. You mentioned his batting average fell off in the second half. He hit 270 in the first half. So that's not really, that's not really somebody you consider a big contributor in batting average. But his career high batting average

is only 263. So that's just not something he generally provides anyway. Gets on base a ton, though. The walk rate is good. The strikeout rate is good. And that makes a difference in points leagues. So I think he's clearly

in that elite tier for points leagues. And Roto, it's a little iffier because you don't know, you don't know if his batting average is going to be better than like 250, 260. Pete Alonzo was number eight at the position. He finishes with a 262 batting average, 37 homers,

and much like Matt Olson, takes a huge step forward in the strikeout department. 25.5% strikeout rate in 2020, 19.9% this past season. And he had a pretty massive second half. 275 batting average 921 OPS. I know, I know. Chris Towers is ringing to my ear.

Full season statistics are more predictive than half season statistics. But if we are getting, let's say three rounds of value, I think it might wind up being more. But say we're getting three rounds of value on Pete Alonzo versus Matt Olson next season, I'm going to be all in.

I'm going to have a lot of Pete Alonzo. Yeah, if it's that big of a difference, I don't know that it's going to be that big of a difference. I have Matt Olson as a third rounder right now in five by five. Alonzo, I don't know, he might be a fifth rounder. Maybe he'll be a sixth rounder. Yes. Yes.

You know, it's funny, like, because I was making the same comparison heading into this year, but with Alonzo, the one going. Yeah. But with Olson, the one going several rounds after Alonzo. Yeah, we were all doing the same thing. We were like, why would you draft Alonzo when you could get Olson to, like, whatever, three, four rounds later? And now I think it's going to flip.

I think it's going to go the other way now. Right. And maybe Olson deserves, like, I will say I think Olson deserves to go ahead of Pete Alonzo. But does it, should it be three rounds? If that's what it winds up being? Probably not. You look at the second halfs, right? Pete Alonzo was better than Matt Elonzo.

in the second half. Speaks for itself. Yeah, I mean, I should point out, and maybe this is why I'm hedging a little bit, the disparity is much bigger in points leagues, because Olson walks 13% of the time versus Alonzo's 9% of the time.

So in head-to-head points per game, Olson had 3.62, better than Freddie Freeman, even, about the same as Marcus Simeon, actually, that 3.62. Not that Simeon is first base eligible, but you know what I mean. So 3.62 for Olson versus 3.16 for Alonso.

That's a pretty big difference. For sure. But they both did greatly improve their strikeout rate. It seemed to impact, like, it seemed to help elevate Olson more than it helped elevate Alonzo. Seeing Alonzo strikeout less than 20% of the time and still hit only 262, you know, I was a little underwhelmed by that. But, yeah, I mean, I think you're big.

basic point is certainly if we're just talking about a five by five context, which is probably the majority of our audience plays in five by five leagues, then I think your reasoning is probably right that a difference of three rounds makes Alonzo more worthy of the investment than Olson. Because the home run output's going to be similar. The batting average output but probably similar. Olson's going to score more runs. Yes. And the RBI production,

you know, that should be similar. So Olson's better, but three rounds of difference for that format, you're probably right. And it could all turn out to be a moot point if

maybe they're only one round apart. You know, I mean, if that's the case, you know, that probably makes more sense. But we'll see. Once we start,

you know, seeing some ADPs trickle in, we'll let you know where that stands. Joey Votto. That's right. Joey Votto finishes as the ninth best first baseman this year.

266 batting average, 36 homers, 99 RBI in only 129 games. I don't think people realize how much time Joey Votto actually missed just about 30 games

this past season. 297 isolated power was a career high in his age 37 season. He was 95th percentile in barrel rate and 3.4 fantasy points per game tied with Paul Goldschmidt, Max Muncie. So we know that he excels there, though the strikeouts did come up a little bit.

It'll be interesting to see where the ADP settles in for Vado, Scott. I have no idea what's going to happen here. But if he comes at a reasonable cost, I kind of buy this. I kind of buy it just because Votto strikes who is someone who, like Ichro, each row used to always say, you know, if I wanted to be a power hitter, I can. You know, I could just kind of flip a switch like that. I mean, that's how talented these guys are.

Joey Votto kind of, I kind of look at him in a similar way where if he wanted to be a power hitter, he could have been. And that's exactly what he was this year. Yeah, but I think what he realized over the previous three seasons

when his power production was not up to his past standards, not up to the standards of the position, that near MVP season he had in 27. I mean, I'm basically paraphrasing him at this point. He's laid it all help for us, But that near MVP season he had in 2017 when he hit 320 with 36 strikeouts had 51.

I'm sorry, he said the wrong thing. He hit 320 with 36 home runs, had 51 more walks than strikeouts in 2017. Like that was kind of his dream season where everything came together the way he thought it could in terms of making contact like that and still having the power. And what he learned in the three seasons that followed is that it's getting older. He's losing some strength. He can't do what he needs to do to make contact at that high rate and still hit the ball out of the park. So he realized that he was going to have to trade some strikeouts for power.

Like I said, he pretty much laid that all out. He gave us a sneak peek last September 2020 for the, you know, for the, The season, the home run, the overall output for that short 2020 season still wasn't great, but he definitely turned up the power at the end of the season. And he said, you know, he figured out what he needed to do to hit home runs at his current age, at his current level of athleticism. And he followed up on it. He followed through on it beyond, I think, what anybody was expecting, obviously,

because he wasn't drafted that high. But we did have kind of an inkling in spring training that, okay, maybe he does have a second act in him still, a final act in him, where he can still be fantasy relevant, at least. Yeah, he proved to be relevant and then some. And I'm with you. I mean, look, he's going to be 30.

Well, he already is 38. He turned 38 in September. It's very old, obviously. but for a guy with great plate discipline who still doesn't strike out a lot he strikes out more than he used to but not a lot as long as he stays healthy

I don't see why he can't continue to deliver a stat line like he did in 2021 and by the way I actually overlooked him earlier when I said only three first basemen averaged more head to head points per game than Paul Goldschmidt last year I mentioned Guerrero, Olson, and Freeman. So did Joey Votto.

Joy Votto was 3.44 versus Goldschmidt's 3.41. So, no, for points leagues next year, I actually rank Votto ahead of Ibrahim even. Not for Roto, but for points leagues. I think that makes sense. I'm in. I want to see. I want to see where the ADP comes in on Joey Votto. But I think some people will be off.

They'll just scratch him off because, all right, he's 38 years old. but we'll see. Number 10 at the position was Jared Walsh, 277 batting average, 29 homers, 98 RBI in 144 games, did have a stint on the IL this past season. Kind of a tough year to figure out for Jared Walsh. Lots of ground balls, got off to this great start. There was this middle part of the season where in July, he hit 208 with a 543 OPS in August,

258 with a 796 OPS. So we slowed down and then finished strong in September and October combined. He had four homers and OPS over 1,000. So he finished strong. With Mike Trout, hopefully healthy next year and Anthony Rendon, that would obviously help Jared Walsh. But he's kind of a tough one to just kind of put it all together. He's also terrible against lefties.

Yeah, and it's worth pointing out because since this was really the first year, he was front and center and fantasy. He's already 28 years old. So how much development does he really have ahead of him? Probably not much. And his season was just, it was so all over the place in terms of strikeout rate. Because remember, we first kind of warmed up to Jared Walsh last September because his strikeout rate went way down. He had a big month.

Maybe there's something to see here. He got off to a great start. The strikeout rate was still down. But then the strikeout rate kind of blew up again. and the power production fell. And then the strikeout rate went way down again in September. He ended up hitting well over 300 for the month. So what is he?

Is he a contact guy? Is he a power guy? Like, I think it's clearly one of those situations where it's not even really worth trying to try and to slice and dice it all, you know? Just, you know, we'll go with the, we'll go with the Chris Towers quote again, that full season statistics are more predictive

than partial season statistics and just say, okay, Jared Walsh at 277 with 29 homers and an OPS around 850. So I guess that's who he is. And it's a pretty good player, right? Even if he regresses a little bit, you know, 270 hitter, if he's an 825 OPS, 25 to 3.5.5 to, 30 home runs. That's still a useful player. It's not necessarily a standout at the position,

but it could definitely be useful. And if Trout is healthy, if Rendon's healthy, if Otani's good to go, then the counting stat should be there for Jared Walsh, assuming he hits in the middle of that lineup. I don't really see why he would it. So there you have it. Reminder again that this segment was promoted by Line of Cool's. But this is our year in review. First base addition, and my Yankees are out of it, but I still love playoff baseball. Let's go, National. National League, Braves, Dodgers, Giants, whoever it is, I'll be watching with an ice cold lining Cougal's Summer Shandy in hand, smooth blend of beer and refreshing lemonade

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Lining Coogles has you covered. Just head on over to linie.com. That's L-E-N-I-N-I-E dot com or follow Lining Coogles on Instagram or Facebook for more information about all of the delicious beers that they brew. What went wrong for these players? I'll quickly mention to some of these names

who were ranked pretty highly at the position coming into the year, whether it was an ADP or our rankings. I'm sure we had these names ranked pretty high as well. I wanted to talk about Cody Bellinger, but he won't have first base eligibility next year. No, he won't. I'll save it for outfield, but, man, I like him,

Yelich, trying to figure those guys out. Bellinger's looked a little bit better in the postseason so far, making good contact, he's getting some hits, not hitting for power, but we've got a lot to talk about when it comes to Cody Bellinger. I'm going to skip down to DJ LaMayhew. He had an ADP inside the first three rounds. He was the third first baseman being drafted.

Of course, he had second base eligibility. as well. Luke Voigt was the number eight first baseman being drafted, 72.8 ADP. Anthony Rizzo, how about that? Technically three Yankees this year. Anthony Rizzo, half the year with the Yankees. He finished as the 30th first baseman, and his ADP was 91.2. Fun fact, Scott's first base rankings, these are currently live on the site. There's an article about them. They were delayed from being published because one of our editors was like, where's Anthony Rizzo? So it's definitely a question and when we have to talk about. And then Dominic Smith, who

I'll just talk about him because like, he's not going to be eligible at first base. He's not going to be eligible at first base, but he was someone that I liked quite a bit. And he, you know, his ADP was right around 120 and, you know, some people like myself thought he had breakout potential. I have him in your Dynasty League. So I'm

hoping he bounces back, but it was a dreadful season for really all of these New Yorkers. LeMayhew, Voight, Rizzo, Dominic Smith. What do you think, Scottie? wrong with these guys. Anyone that you're looking at buying back into for next year? Voight is the one that I'll be most likely to buy back into next year. I haven't ranked the highest of the three. It's going to depend somewhat on what the Yankees do, right? Because Luke Voigt's

still under contract for them. Anthony Rizzo isn't. So my presumption is that Rizzo is going to walk. Will the Yankees bring in somebody else? And like, do they just not believe in Voight as a full-time first basement anymore? can't say at this point. But my assumption, as of right now, is that Voight's going to be back to being the Yankees' everyday first basement. And he didn't really do anything to lose the job.

He just wasn't available enough. And then by the time he did return, obviously the playing time was sporadic. He didn't produce that much down the stretch because he wasn't in the lineup that consistently. You know, we could dive into the stat-cast numbers. You know, it looks like he hit the ball. even harder than he had in the past.

The strikeout rate was way up. But again, the playing time was inconsistent, and the availability was sporadic. So I don't even know that that's really anything to sweat with void. It was just kind of a lost season. And it really just comes down to whether or not the Yankees are going to give him another chance.

I mean, he's only 30, so it's not like it's an age-related decline. Yeah, I'm looking at, through Dominic Smith's numbers from this past season, it seems like him and DJ LaMayhew might have the same problem. And yeah, I'm thinking that they benefited from the bouncy balls, Scott. That's what I'm really thinking it was, because LaMayhew, you know, he regresses big time.

He dealt with some injuries this past year as well. But power comes way down. The bat at a ball day that takes a huge step back. Same thing for Dominic Smith. Like, he still hit a lot of line drives, but his exit velocities, his expected batting average, his ISO, his slug, his Babbat, everything came way down for Dominic Smith. And I think it might be related to the ball.

Well, I haven't looked as closely at Smith, and I didn't have as much reason to obsess about him because he wasn't as highly drafted as LaMahue, obviously. But that's my assumption with LaMahue, yeah, as he's one of the, bigger casualties of the new

deadened baseball which we can't point to that many but LeMayhew was somebody who we said could it could be an issue

for him obviously he hadn't really shown power in his career before that first season with the Yankees 2019 which is

when the ball was at its juicest you know so yeah I mean what's funny about La Mayhew

is that it's not like his hard hit rate as average X's velocity. It's not like it was that far off. But when you go from the ball traveling just enough to get over the fence to no longer doing that, you know, obviously it can make a big difference. The guy didn't hit a lot of long home runs.

It's the bottom line. Yeah, no, he had one of the lowest average home run distances from the past two years heading into this season. So it's really easy to piece that together for LaMayhew. I'm not totally riding them off because the underlying numbers still look as strong as they did during those first two years with the Yankees. But you're talking about a late round, just a late round flyer for DJ LaMayhew.

Last point on Dom Smith, his home runs a fly ball rate 9.1%. In 2020, it was 22.2. In 2019, it was 22.4. I mean, his home run to fly ball rate was more than cut in half. That is just, that is massive. So I do wonder if it's related to the ball. And I don't even know if Dom Smith's going to have, even with the Universal D.H, I don't know if he'll have the opportunity to play every day out of the gate next year for the Mets. So he's going to have to prove himself in spring training and, you know, maybe earn a spot again in the everyday lineup.

But I still think there's talent there, but he's got to prove it. He's got to prove it with this new, not new now. but a different baseball than years past. Let's take a quick break when we return the top 20 for 2022 at first base. Scott's rankings are live on the site. We'll talk about it here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, so let's start with the top five that are ranked for 2022 at first base. No surprise, Vladimir Guerrero is number one on this list.

Freddie Freeman is number two. Then we have Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Max Muncie rounding out the top five here. and we spoke a little bit about Goldschmidt earlier, Scott. What would you say, I'm quizzing you in the middle of October, but a realistic expectation for Goldschmidt. Give me a projected 5x5 stat line for next year. All right. Let me pull up the actual stat line so I don't state over what it actually is.

Okay. I'll say Paul Goldschmidt will give him a, I don't know 285 batting average I like that 30 home runs let's give him about six steals

seven steals and 9090 yeah that's a pretty good that's a pretty good ball player I don't know if I'm drafting that guy in the

third round if that's where he settles in but that's, I think that's fair. I mean, again, like all of the underlying numbers for Paul Goldschmidt are there. The best batted ball data, stackass numbers that we have ever seen from him and reminder that Goldschmidt was someone routinely being drafted in the first round,

just as, you know, recently as two, three years ago. Well, maybe a little bit longer than that. I mean, it's not far off from his three-year average, to be honest. Obviously, you're having to do some funny maths since the 2020 season was so short. You know, you can't just, those totals don't neatly translate. But it's not far off from his three-year average, what I just gave.

Again, that is Paul Goldschmidt. Those are the top five first baseman. Vlad, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Max Muncie. Six through 10, we have Pete Alonzo, Jose Abraeu, Joey Votto, Jake Cronomworth, and C.J. Cron. we have not talked about either of the the Cronome

gentleman here, Cronomworth or C.J. Cronome. But, man, like, Jake Cronoanworth, I know he was dealing with injury towards the end of the season. He was, he was solid, like 266. I know the 266 batting average, like, that fell off, but 21 homers, 94 RBI, 94 runs,

71 RBI, handful of steals. He kind of seems like a DJ LaMayhew light type player? I think the batting average would be better than this 266 that he posted. Well, I...

DJ LaMayhew Light. Well, not from this past year, I guess, like, when DJ LeMayhew is good. If he's DJ LaMehu Light, I need to move DJ LaMayhew up or Gronerworth down. No, no, no. And I'm not totally sold on this ranking

for Croninworth, to be honest. My perception of his 2021 was better than the numbers actually appear. I think he had a middle stretch of the season where it looked like, oh man, this Jake Croninworth's a stud. And then is kind of a disappointing finish.

His underlying numbers say he should be better than a 266 hitter. I'm kind of pegging him for more like a 280 to 290 batting average by ranking him here. I don't think he's going to be a huge power hitter. He just doesn't hit the ball hard enough for that.

But 20 to 25 home runs, you'll take that. The main reason I I'm slotting Cronoworth 9 here at first base is because he's going to be triple eligible. First base, second base shortstop with third base, because third base is shaving up to be terrible. But the other three infield spots,

I mean, it's still pretty handy. So I have him here for now, but I could be talked into moving him down. Jake Cronowardt, I'm looking at his final three months from July 1st on. He hit 244 with a 760. OPS. It's pretty bad.

Yeah. It's not good. That's pretty mediocre, if we're being honest. So I think once we get past Abraeu and Votto, it kind of just looks like this, we'll get into the other names,

but it kind of looks like this huge hodgepodge of names. Like if Reese Cosskins is healthy, maybe, and we'll talk about him, maybe he bounces back up, but man, like I really, I'm going to want to get one of these I would say top

six, seven, eight names Yeah, we got another tier drop here from Votto to Kronenworth I think that's fair to say But first base Like we think of first base As not being this deep position anymore And it's certainly not a star studded position

Like it was, you know, 10, 15 years ago But it's deep in like middle round bats Just guys that you're fine having in your lineup But you're not really excited to draft either. And it starts with Kron and Worth. No, I think that's a really good point. So you know what I'm thinking? A lot of corner infielders in

Roto next year are going to be first basement. They're just, all right, you pencil these guys in. They're just steady production. They're okay. They're not going to be third baseman. I'll tell you that much. I started working on third base rankings today and it is it's even worse than I thought.

CJ Crone, by the way. 281 batting average, 28 homers, 92 RBI, 9.05 OPS. He was good. Again, I think he kind of, the 905 OPS, maybe I'm selling, selling them a little bit short here, but the walk rate was up. I'll tell you this for sure. No third basement at a 905 OPS. At least nobody who's going to have eligibility at the position next year. Sheesh. All right. Well, yeah, I think Cron is another one in this group of like middling first basement. Got to point out for Cron. And like it was, he basically delivered on the

case scenario when he heard when we heard he was joining the Rockies. Could that boring, you know, kind of low-endish power guy become something special by playing half his games at Coorsfield? And it doesn't always work out,

but it definitely worked out in his case. At Coorsfield, he hit 326 with a 1073 OPS. On the road, he hit 235 with a 734 OPS. Oh my gosh. But that's why it was great news that the Rockies re-signed him already. They've already

re-uped him for two years, so now we can consider him a top 10 first basement still. Yeah, no, I think that definitely makes sense. 11 through 15 at the position, we have Reese Hoskins, Josh Bell, Ryan Mountcastle, Jared Walsh, and Brandon Belt.

Reese Hoskins, I mentioned the name. He will turn 29 years old in March. He was coming off of, I think it was like, it wasn't a full Tommy John, right? It was like a partial Tommy John surgery the year before, and he was good. There was no ill effects from what he had.

107 games played, 247 batting average, 27 homers. 27 home runs and 107 games. I mean, that's something like a 35, 37 homer pace over 150. So that's a huge power output for Reese Hoskins. It's easy to forget about him, because obviously he got shut down with an abdominal injury, but you're right. No ill effects.

He actually hit the ball. Most everybody hit the ball harder than ever, right? Because of the change in the ball. But his expected slug was off the charts, 553. Massive. Massive. And he was on fire when he got shut down. He was, because remember he kind of got off to a slow start,

especially with the walks. But he was on fire when he got shut down. and I may have him ranked too low here. He's more of a points league guy than a five-by-five guy because you know the batting average isn't going to be great. But you know, the OBPs probably is going to be great. So that's, you know, kind of Max Muncie-like in that way. Man, I kind of like Hoskins.

I like this. I don't know if we're going to get him at this much of a discount. But, I mean, honestly, if he plays a full season, if he plays 150 games, why can't he be as good as Max Muncie? You know, like, there's no reason to me why he can't. Well, he never has. He was on pace to basically be as good as Monty last year. Well, I guess so.

Yeah, since Muncie's batting average ended up falling to 249, Hoskins hit 247. Don't don't sell my Hoskins. Don't sell them low here. Come on, Scotty. But, but yeah, I mean, he's still only had 1.30 Homer's season, technically. Hoskins has. And we've seen Muncie do that a few times. All right.

So, you know, and Muncie, and Hoskins strikes out more, too. So I don't think he's as good as Muncie, but it's closer than a lot of people might realize. All right, all right. Well, I am officially, I am dubbing myself the leader of the Reese Hoskins fan club, and I will be pushing for his support of becoming the next Max Muncie. The last name that I wanted to mention here, you have Ryan Mountcastle at 13. And much like Josh Bell, he had an awful April, but from May 1st on, 119 games, 266 batting average, 32 home runs, 853 OPS, batted ball data all looks fun, fun. What am I saying? It looks fine. It looks fine here. Why can't he make the jump into like the Matt Olson Pete Alonzo territory? This is me playing like the high end outcome. But from May 1st on, he was, he was, he was.

kind of Pete Alonzo-ish, 26632 homers. He can't. He can't make that kind of leap. The main reason he can't make that kind of leap is because he's on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of on-base skills. And so you've got a 300 OBP guy in a terrible lineup, no less. Like, that's just, that's going to drag down those runs. Adley-Rutchman is coming, Scotty.

Come on. Plus, he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as those other guys. So, you know, maybe he can hit 33 home runs again. but like, I don't think it should be the same expectation for Mount Castle that it is for guys like Alonzo and Olson. I actually agree with you. I just, you know, kind of wanted to make that devil's advocate argument for him. The final group that I wanted to talk about here, this is from 16 to 20.

You have Luke Voigt, Frankie, two hits. Frank Schwendell, Yuli Guriel, Thai France, and Alex Kirillov. Scott, how could you betray our Frankswindle? You ranked him 17th at the position. What are we doing? I know all that big talk of ranking him in the top 12. Come on. I just kept pushing him down.

I had him as high as 13th at one point. Once I remembered Reese Hoskins existed and once C.J. Crohn re-signed with the Rockies, it became clear Schwendell wasn't going to be in my top 12, literally. But I had him at 13 behind Josh Bell. And then I decided at least for five-by-five, leagues, the low OBP guys, Ryan Mountcastle and Jared Walsh, you know, they were productive enough to move ahead of him.

And then Brandon Bell and Luke Voight, I decided to give more benefit of the doubt too as well. We don't know what's going to happen with Brandon Belt, but he's a free agent. That's why I say that. I presume the Giants will re-sign him. I believe they have the means to do so. And they value a player like that, which means we can explain. expect him to sit against lefties a lot next year. I'd much rather see Brandon Belt go somewhere else. I mean, over the course of his career, that park has really held him back.

He's gotten, it hasn't been so bad the past couple years, but his career, we'd have a different perception of belt if he played like in Milwaukee for his whole career as opposed to San Francisco. Yankees. Yeah, sure.

I take that. And also, like, it's not like he's a bad hitter against lefties, but the Giants just love platooning guys, and he, suffers from that. So, Belt and Voight, I have him,

you know, I'm kind of straddling the fence here, ranking them 15 and 16, because I have questions about what kind of playing time they're both going to get. If Belt signs somewhere else

and the Yankees don't bring in anyone else, then I think Belt and Voigt both probably vaulted into the top 12. They probably move ahead of Josh Bell and into the top 12 for next year. would you disagree with that or into the top 12 so that would be right around

Hoskins Bell yeah I mean I like Hoskins quite a bit I think if Hoskins is like healthy next year I think he might push ahead of like Cronomworth but yeah if Voigt is projected to be the starting first basement for the Yankees I could see him right in that same range right in that

Hoskins C.J. Crone yeah I think that would make sense. Voigt. Voight you're saying? Yeah, Voight. Let's just remind everybody how good these two have been. Voight and Bell. Voight was the major league home run leader in 2020, short season, obviously, but still.

And Bell, he played only 97 games this year, but he hit a career high 29 home runs in those 97 games. So we're talking to 50 homer pace for Brandon Bell. And, you know, like I said, it's really been the last two years that San Francisco. that park hasn't held him back so much. Combined his OPS between 2020 and 2021 and 148 games. So basically a full-length season, 2020-2020-21. Belt has a 988 OPS.

Ooh. 285-38-home runs at 98-OPS. Jeez. So if he gets out of San Francisco and doesn't have that stifling home venue anymore, but even more so, because I'm not even sure how much I'm worried about that at this stage of his career, even more so.

If he doesn't have to worry about sitting against lefties most of the time, then I don't see why we belt wouldn't be a really trendy pick at the position as somebody who could be a sneaky stud for you. You do not have Anthony Rizzo on this list. Explain. I do not have Anthony Rizzo on this list.

Yeah, so rounding out the list after Frank Schwendell at 17 is Uliuguri-L-Tai France and Alex Kirolov. So those are the three he's contending with. You know, we talked about it before. I just think Anthony Rizzo is just think he's kind of done. It's 32 now. He's had some back issues, I believe, hasn't he? Yep, off and on.

And those can be a killer for power especially. And, you know, he hit 222 last year in the pandemic shortens season 222. And then he hit 248 this year. So, you know, it's, he hasn't had a 30 homer season since 2017. So already he's pulling up short in the power department for the position. And then the last two years combined, he's hit 240. Still doesn't strike out much, but I don't know. I thought going to the Yankees would revitalize him.

I thought it was the perfect park for him with that short porch and right field. You know, the data said he should be more productive there. And he really wasn't. He had 249 with the 768 OPS as a Yankee. And now it's probably not even going to be back with the Yankees next year. So I don't know. I don't see much to get excited about here. I do have him on my top 20 in points leagues because like I said,

he doesn't strike out much still. And that keeps him from losing points. But I'm not really counting on a resurgence from Anthony Rizzo. As good as he's been over the course of his career. Yeah, I like all three. these guys better. Yulee Guriel, Thai,

France, Alex Kierloff. Love the upside of Kierloff. Remember, the stat cast data was great, and it was even better before he started playing through that wrist injury that he ended up having

season, ending surgery for. So I'm going to be high on him again going into next year. You know, France and Guriel, they're obviously batting average first type of guys. They don't provide big power for the position either,

but that's kind of who, that's kind of who, that's kind of Rizzo's upside at this point, I feel like, is 20 homers with the high-ish batting average. And I just don't think he's as likely to do it as either of those guys are, Guerrille or France. Give me one or two names that you think that you'll be targeting next year. At first base? Yep.

Okay, well, I mentioned Kiroloff. And is there anybody further down that we didn't have a chance to talk about? Not really. It gets pretty ugly after that. It doesn't have to be like a lot. later name. It could be... Well, I was just curious if there was somebody I could bring up and blow your mind.

Let's say Luke Voight. If he's a starter, I'll definitely be investing in him pretty heavily. Yeah, I'll go on the other side of New York. I think I'm going to have a lot of Pete Alonzo next year. And Reese Hoskins, too. I think

he was having an awesome year and good ballpark to hit in. Pretty good lineup as well. So yeah, I think Pete Alonzo and Reese Hoskins, a few names there. for me. Any names that you think you might avoid, Scott? Matt Olson, I like the player, and I think it's just, I might get priced out on him.

If he's like a third or fourth round pick, it's just, it seems a lot to spend up for, I guess, that profile. So that was the same argument I was making against Pete Alonzo last year. If I want to stay consistent, I think I might be priced out on Matt Olson. I will say, will I say. I will say,

probably Jared Walsh. I just, I'd like to know what I'm getting and I suspect he'll go earlier than I'm comfortable taking him. Yeah, I think that's fair. A few prospects to know, I'll just throw these names out there.

Spencer Tockelson basically split his time evenly between first base and third base in the minors this past year. He was the first overall pick back in 2020. So last year's draft, not this one. But he's only third base eligible on CBS for now. So we'll...

He'll be first base for next year. Yep. Tristan Casas with the Red Sox. I named to remember he had an 877 OPS this past season in the minors. He spent some time away. He was playing in the Olympics. He actually smashed a home run in his first Arizona Fall League game on Wednesday night when we're recording this.

And a few others. The Royals, we talk about him a lot. Nick Prado, Vinipas Quintino, and then Seth Beer with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He dislocated his shoulder towards the end of the season and he had to have surgery. So hopefully he's ready in time for spring training. But if he is, he probably has a job somewhere with the Arizona Diamondbacks,

a few prospects to know for 2022. We're going to wrap there. For Scott, I am Frank Takeal for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We will be back again on Tuesday. Bye-bye. Bye.