Fantasy Baseball Today - Paul Skenes & Luis Gil Dominate! Waiver Wire Adds & Start/Sit Decisions (5/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 20, 2024

Paul Skenes threw six no-hit innings in his second career start (2:40)! ... Luis Gil struck out a career-high 14 this weekend (9:53). ... News (16:25): Edwin Diaz is out as the Mets closer. ... Alek ...Manoah might be turning the corner (26:40). ... Jo Adell or Lars Nootbaar (38:40)? Luis Matos is off to a great start. ... Is it alright to drop names like Triston McKenzie and Luis Severino (52:44)? ... Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez and other hitters have turned up in May (1:00:01). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:02:30). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Paul Skeen's, You Savage. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Monday, May 20th.
Starting point is 00:00:32 I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we had some masterful pitching performances this weekend. We've got the Waver Wire moves. ads and drops, starter sit questions, and hitters who are turning things around in the month of May. Let's jump in. Oh, my goodness gracious. All right, Scott, there is only one place to start. The Olive Garden Breadstick goes to you, my friend.
Starting point is 00:00:58 Paul Skeens is that Olive Garden breadstick. Paul Skeens in his second Major League start through six no-hit innings against the Cubs, the same team he faced in his first Major League start. If anything, you'd think they'd have a better read on him. But no, six no-hit innings, walked one, struck out 11 through 100 pitches, which, you know, he threw his high for a professional in his first major league start. You know, obviously there are babying him in the minors. And then he topped that high here with 100 pitches. And 100 pitches is the most you'd expect from any pitcher, really.
Starting point is 00:01:38 And he's there. So I don't know that, I think they've answered the question, is Paul Skeen's going to be limited on a start-by-start basis? It doesn't mean they won't curtail his innings at some point, but they're treating them like a conventional starter, and that's great. So Paul Skeens is very good, and this start proves it. And maybe that's all anybody needs to hear right now. But if you're willing to hear a little more nuance, I have more to say. Are you willing to hear a little more nuance? I am willing to hear more nuance.
Starting point is 00:02:13 Okay. Now let me preface this with, it should go without saying, Paul Skeens is good, number one picking the draft last year, dominated the minor leagues, was everybody's top pitching prospect, and he throws six no-hit innings
Starting point is 00:02:27 in his second major league start. Having said that, I kind of see what everybody was talking about with the fastball. Remember every scouting report this off-season mentioned how his fastball for as hard as it is, is a suboptimal shape. And as I was watching this start for Paul Skeens, because I called the kids in again.
Starting point is 00:02:50 I'm like, hey, Paul Skeens is pitching again, guys. Let's turn on and watch this. And of course, I'm wanting to see him strike everybody out. But I'm noticing, man, they are wasting some pitches off. Like, they are fouling off a bunch of pitches on him when he gets to two strikes. and really prolonging these at bats. And I saw it happen with hitter after hitter. And so I wondered, you know, I checked the numbers after the game.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Of the 100 pitches, Paul Skeens threw, 25 were fouled off. Quarter of the pitches thrown were fouled off. And about a third of his fastballs were fouled off. And that's how I perceived it watching it is, okay, it's not like when he throws a fastball, hitters are swinging under it and just not lining up their bats with it. Like they have it lined up.
Starting point is 00:03:41 They're just late. And when his fastball was most effective, because they got a bunch of whiffs with it, but he had to set it up properly. He had to use his fastball kind of like a change of pace weapon where the splitter's so good, the slider so good. They have to account for those. And then he sneaks that fastball by them at one of,
Starting point is 00:04:06 and they just can't catch up to it because it's so much velocity when they're having to safeguard against the off-speed pitches. So I found that interesting. I do think Paul Skeens is the sort of pitcher who can't get away with throwing like 65% fastballs. I think if he did that, they'd be able to time it up and, you know, it doesn't have the sort of profile that would allow him to succeed with that approach. And I think Hunter Green is another example of a pitcher like that.
Starting point is 00:04:36 very hard, but he can be hit a bowl at times because the fastball doesn't have the optimal shape and he doesn't have enough to go with it. And I think that's what distinguishes schemes from somebody like Green. He has excellent secondary pitches and a really good plan of attack. He knows, like he seems to know what he is and know what to do with that arsenal. I do wonder if we're thinking from a dynasty perspective, what happens if he's, loses a couple miles per hour on that fastball, and it's more like a high 90s fastball, and maybe there becomes less differentiation between it and the off-speed stuff. Is he able to burn it by hitters at that point?
Starting point is 00:05:19 Is it as good of a swing and miss pitch? I don't know. We can figure that out when it happens, I guess. But I think he has such a good feel for who he is and how his stuff plays off, how his pitches play off each other, that I don't think. think it's anything to worry about. I just thought it was noteworthy as I'm watching the Cubs hitters foul off all these pitches against him. And I think that is a fair observation. I guess not that I'm pushing back, but I guess my retort to that is that of his 22 swinging strikes,
Starting point is 00:05:56 he still had 12 of them on the fastball. So even with as many foul balls as he got, you know, through two starts, he's a 38% whiff rate on his four-scene fastball, which I don't think is sustainable. I mean, Luis Castillo routinely has the top whiff rate on his fastball, and I think it's like 30 to 35%. So maybe Schenz is in that category, but I just wanted to point out, even with all these foul balls, how dominant that fastball was in this. Yeah, but it was, it missed bats because it threw off hitters timing, as opposed to it missed bats because it was like a Spencer Strider sort of
Starting point is 00:06:31 fastball where they're just swinging under it. If you can follow, If that distinction makes sense. With Paul Skeens, I mean, I don't think there's anything actual. Obviously, like, get him in your lineup. So I think he's 63% started on CBS. So he's home against the San Francisco Giants this week. And obviously, I need to move him up a lot in the rankings. You know, when he got called up, we famously had a little back and forth about where you ranked him, where I ranked him.
Starting point is 00:06:56 And part of my concern was would they limit him? And there's still a chance that they do limit him at some point this season. But as you mentioned, I mean, the fact that he started on 84 and 1,000. 100 pitches respectively, gives me a lot more confidence on a start-to-start basis for Paul Skeens this year in fantasy and redraft leagues, which is obviously what we're ranking for on the website. So I've got to get him way up. And one thing I just thought about seeing his teammate and where Jared Jones has ranked so far, who would you rather have, Scott, rest of the season? Jared Jones or Paul Skeens? I'm going to say Jared Jones, but they're separated by like two spots and starting pitcher rankings.
Starting point is 00:07:33 Jared Jones. See, I was just sorting pitchers by Strikeout to Walk ratio. And Jared Jones is fourth. You interested in the three names ahead of him, strikeout to Walk ratio? I look at this a lot. I think Jack Flaherty is ahead of him.
Starting point is 00:07:48 He's number one, yeah. He had a good start this weekend. I think Chris Sale is up there. Chris Sale is fifth behind Jared Jones. K to Walk. I'm inaga, maybe? No. All right.
Starting point is 00:08:00 Give him to me. All right. So Jack Flaherty won, as you pointed out, Garrett Crochet is number two. Makes sense. And Terrick Scoobel, number three. Yep, yep. And he had a great start this weekend as well.
Starting point is 00:08:11 Speaking of great starts, Luis Heel had a performance for the ages on Saturday against the White Sox. I was at the game, and we were talking beforehand. I thought this was especially impressive when you consider he kind of had a rough first inning. It was an inefficient first inning.
Starting point is 00:08:28 I think he threw like 30 pitches in that first. And then he just settled down. And he was great the rest of his start. Luis Heel, six innings, one run, 14 strikeouts to one walk. He had 22 swinging strikes on 98 pitches. 12 of those came on the fastball. Seven on the changeup, three on the slider. That's now four straight quality starts for Luis Heel.
Starting point is 00:08:48 And I think that's the biggest development here, Scott, is the fact that even with all the walks that Luis Heel has had, he has found a way to be efficient enough to now turn in quality starts. And that matters a lot, obviously, for those who play in points leagues. I mean, even in Roto Category leagues, the deeper you go, the better you pitch, obviously, the more likely you are to get a win. And at this point in the season, Luis Heel now has a 239 ERA,
Starting point is 00:09:10 a 108 whip. The underlying number support it. It's 11.4K Pro 9. The question becomes with him is what happens later on in the season, right? And you can just say, all right, we'll figure it out when we get there. But the fact that Garikol is ramping things up, Luis Heel, coming back from Tommy John's surgery,
Starting point is 00:09:29 hasn't thrown many innings over the past, couple of years. My mind instantly starts thinking, well, what's the cap? And what do the Yankees do when Gerkull is back? Do they go with a six-man rotation? These things sometimes figure themselves out. There could be injuries, whatever it might be. But as great of a performance as this is, and it really was a great one, what happens? Moving forward with Louise Heel, what do you think? Yeah, I do think we cross that bridge when we come to it. It's too early to worry about it. at some point, I imagine they'll have to limit his innings, but it's not going to be for a couple months at least,
Starting point is 00:10:05 provided he stays healthy. And maybe he'll get hurt at some point, and it'll take care of itself. Maybe life will find a way in that way. I'm just reveling in how good he looks at this point, because it just keeps getting better and better. At first, it was like, okay, he can miss some bats, but he's so inefficient that what's it going to?
Starting point is 00:10:27 amount to in fantasy. Maybe he has a good K per 9 rate, but he's walking too many guys and not working deep enough into games. And at some point, he's going to have to start allowing more hits because the BAPIP is so low. And it seems like he's just kind of putting those concerns aside one by one. So this was now his fourth straight start going six plus innings. Luis Heel, is who we're talking about here. Fourth straight, six plus innings. And his fourth start in five, with two walks or fewer. And I've talked before about how, yes, it is a very low BABIP. He allows few hits, but it's weak contact mostly in the air.
Starting point is 00:11:08 So that's the profile that would allow fewer hits. I don't bring up BABIP as often as I did five years ago because I think it's, we've come to see that different profiles are supposed to have different BAPBs. And Luis Heel has a low Babbat profile here. and maybe he'll have to allow some more hits than he has so far. But if he's cutting the walks down and pitching deeper to games, he's still getting strikeouts at this crazy rate.
Starting point is 00:11:35 Yeah, he might just be really good. Yeah, and my guess is he's going to be one of the biggest risers in our starting pitcher rankings this week. And I'm just trying to eyeball it now and maybe get an idea of how far I'm going to move him up. You haven't met SP 82. I haven't met 94. I mean, that has to move up a lot for Louise Heel. The way he's pitched recently.
Starting point is 00:11:54 Yeah. Top 70? Top 70 starting pitcher? Starting pitcher is like, at this point, all of my top 100, I feel like are either good or supposed to be good. And so that makes it hard to, we've talked about this a lot, but to distinguish between 40 and 60 in your starting pitcher rankings. Like, wherever I move him, it's going to be too low.
Starting point is 00:12:20 It's going to seem too low, I guess, given the enthusiasm I feel for Luis Heel right now. because, I mean, if this was last year and Luis Heel was doing this, he'd be in the top 40. But it's not a last year. And pitching is dominating hitting right now. Fewer homers, a much lower Babbup than last year. And so that makes for this incredible surplus in the pitching ranks. And when I actually get in there and start moving names around, it may be hard to justify moving Louise Heel past Zach Eflin, for instance.
Starting point is 00:12:58 No, I get that. You know, I'm just trying to eyeball it right now and figure it out. But that's a conversation we can have later in the week when we do our rankings, risers and fallers. But yeah, the two, I would say biggest performances of the weekend, Paul Skeens and Louise Heel, both were fired. They were awesome this weekend. Reminder, I want to say thanks, actually, to those watching us live.
Starting point is 00:13:16 We appreciate you for being here. Make sure to hit that like button and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. and to subscribe to the FBT newsletter. You can scan that QR code that will take you right to the website, click on the FBT logo, you're punching your email address, and it's easy as that. You'll get a newsletter delivered to your email inbox every weekday. Let's take our first break, and when we return,
Starting point is 00:13:37 we'll get to the news and notes, and we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in the news and notes, and perhaps the biggest news of the weekend is that Edwin Diaz had another rough outing and is being shifted to a, quote, fluid roll temporarily. It sounds like Adam Adavino and Reed Garrett could see save opportunities. In fact,
Starting point is 00:13:56 Reed Garrett actually picked up a two-inning save on Sunday and he's been one of the best relievers in baseball this season. Reed Garrett, the ratios have been there. The strikeouts have been there for him. For Edwin Diaz, the fastball is down just over two miles per hour
Starting point is 00:14:09 this season compared to when we last saw him, which I guess would have been two years ago now at this point. Obviously there's down. It's down about one from the majority. of his career. But yes, it's down about two from two years ago, which was the hardest Edwin Diaz was ever throwing. Yeah. Obviously, there's no way we're dropping Edwin Diaz, but you should probably bench him, I guess, for the foreseeable future. And who would you be looking to add if anybody from this Mets bullpen right now? I'd probably read Garrett. If you're
Starting point is 00:14:41 limiting yourself to the Mets bullpen, yes. Now, you could make the argument in deeper categories, leagues that Reed Garrett is worth having around anyway. He entered Sunday with a 0.78 ERA. The whips a little on the high side, relatively speaking, but tons of strikeouts. Almost 15K per 9. And that's useful to have in your lineup even if he's not getting saves. I don't think Reed Garrett will end up getting that many saves. We're talking about Edwin Diaz here, the best closer of his generation.
Starting point is 00:15:17 Is that the best way to put it? Like he is the standard for closers and has been for several years now. And I think the Mets have every incentive to get him back in a place where they can rely on him in the ninth inning consistently. And I think he'll get back there. I think it'll be a similar situation to Craig Kimbril
Starting point is 00:15:39 where maybe they have him work some lower leverage situations for a week or so until they're confident. And he's back in a steady place. and then he'll get back to closing. We saw Craig Kimberle come back with the save. Perfect Ninth struck out two on Sunday, his first save since early May, May 3rd, I believe. And I think that's how this will play out for Edwin Diaz.
Starting point is 00:16:02 So, yeah, if you want to add Reed Garrett, I think it's probably only worth doing in Categories leagues. And again, you could have made the argument to add him even before this, but now there's even more incentive to add him in the hope he gets three, four saves in the short term. And I do think that's something you should be looking to do. If you have Edwin Diaz on your fantasy team in a Categories League, go out and try to add Reed Garrett, who's the first priority.
Starting point is 00:16:30 But if he's already gone, maybe add Ottavino just to have a bit of a handcuff situation there with the Mets bullpen. Garrett Cole threw two simulated innings on Saturday. Pitching coach Matt Blake said afterwards that Cole was clocked throwing in the low 90s, but he is still multiple weeks away from his return. It sounds like June is realistic, assuming there are no setbacks for Garrick Cole. Austin Riley has now missed five straight
Starting point is 00:16:54 due to intercostal inflammation, but appears to be progressing. Scott, how would you handle Austin Riley in weekly lineup leagues this week? I mean, we're getting so far into this absence that I don't know why they want to just put him on the IEL to get an extra hand on the roster. So I would sit him for this week, except in those very deep leagues where there's just no third basement worth starting instead.
Starting point is 00:17:22 Blake Snell is expected to return Wednesday against the Pirates. Would you start or sit in his first start back? Well, I will point out that his latest rehab start was at AAA on what was it, Friday, and five no-hit innings with 10 strikeouts. So in all, he threw nine no-hit innings with 17 strikeouts. It's pretty good. It's pretty good. I still don't think I could do it.
Starting point is 00:17:51 Could you? Are you eager to start Blake Snell? I think there will come a point this season when we're all eager to start Blake's now, but we know how this goes. I think in a points league, you could probably get away from it. That's shallow enough of a format
Starting point is 00:18:04 where you only start five starting pitchers. In a 12-team, Roto League are deeper where we're typically starting six or seven starting pitchers. I think so. I think you're probably getting them back in there. Yeah. I'd hope you'd be with me. I hope we could go down together, but apparently not.
Starting point is 00:18:20 Well, maybe we'll agree on this next one. Joe Musgrove is listed as the starter on Tuesday against the Reds. And does that make him a two-star pitcher this week, Scott? If so, it would be the Braves and the Yankees, and that doesn't sound very enticing. It's complicated because there's a double header on Monday between the Padres and Braves. It's complicated by that and the fact that, okay. They haven't announced that Randy Vasquez is out of the rotation. I'd assume he'd be the one out.
Starting point is 00:18:50 So I can't promise that Musgrove is making two starts this week. They may decide to go six-man for a turn, especially with that doubleheader. But if they don't, it's certainly the number of rest days makes it so Musgrove could start twice this week. And I've added them to the two-start pitcher rankings. And who did I remove? I removed Michael King, the cover. The cover boy. Michael King had to be removed.
Starting point is 00:19:17 He's not a two-star pitcher. I think regardless, I would bench Musgrove. He's looked so bad this year. I mean, same advice is for King for me. Points league I could see it, but otherwise too risky. I agree. Adolus Garcia was scratched from the lineup Sunday due to a right forearm injury. He underwent an MRI that came back clean.
Starting point is 00:19:39 What about Adolis Garcia, Scott? Do you start him this week? So the MRI came back. clean, which means he doesn't have a big injury, but they, I don't think they've ruled out in I-L-L-Stin, right? It could happen. I'd be more likely to start him than Austin Riley, especially since there are a lot of five outfielder leagues out there. But if it's a shallower league, three outfielder, you can afford to play it safe. Maybe sit Garcia as well. Zach Allen's right hamstring tightened up on Saturday, though he was still able to pitch into the
Starting point is 00:20:08 seventh inning. That's the same hamstring that gave him issues a few weeks back. But I haven't heard any concern there, so I think we're all good, getting Gowan in our lineups for this week. Lots of Dodgers happenings this weekend. Max Muncie was placed in the aisle with a grade one right oblique strain and James Outman was optioned to AAA. As a result, the team activated Jason Hayward and recalled Miguel Vargas, who we spoke about on our FBT and 5 prospect episode on Saturday. Vargas having a great season in the minors this year, he's 14% rostered. The problem is that he's only started one of three games since coming back to the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:20:44 So I'm interested in him, but I just don't know how much he's going to play. So I think it's like a stash kind of thing for now. Yeah. Yeah, I haven't lost faith in him. The eggs of velocities are still suspect, not as good as you'd think they'd be given the power numbers he puts up in the minors. And he's always performed very well in the minors. But he elevates and pulls the ball well.
Starting point is 00:21:11 Plate discipline is fantastic. Like basically he has, Miguel Vargas has everything else going on, but supreme exit velocities. And so I still have hope for him. It's just kind of frustrating because now they're so committed to him being an outfielder that they're not going to let him play the infield anymore. Third base is the position he's played most as a professional. So you think they could just slot him in Muncie spot. It's kind of frustrating that they're not willing to do that when their only alternative is Kike Hernandez. Nico Horner has now missed six straight with that left hamstring strain.
Starting point is 00:21:47 And unless we hear something different, I'd probably plan to use somebody else over Nico Horner this week. But by the time lineups come out, I don't know if the Cubs play on Monday. I can quickly pull that up. And they do not. So, yeah, you'd have to wait until Tuesday to find out more about Nico Horner, but hasn't looked good recently with that left hamstring. Bobby Miller threw a bullpen session Saturday. He's expected to throw a three-inning simulated game in the next few days.
Starting point is 00:22:16 He's on the aisle with right shoulder inflammation. Devin Williams played catch Saturday the first time he's done any sort of throwing since being shut down with multiple stress fractures in his back. Ryan Pepio threw a three-inning bullpen on Friday. He could be activated as soon as this week. Nolan Jones is expected to be recalled from his rehab assignment following Sunday's game at AAA. And would you be looking to get Nolan Jones?
Starting point is 00:22:40 back in your lineups this week. It would have to be pretty deep league. I think I'll heat up at some point and you'll be happy you held on to him, but I'm not eager to start him right away. Sean Murphy will likely begin a rehab assignment Tuesday. He's been out since opening day with a left oblique strain.
Starting point is 00:22:57 Josh Young is expected to be re-evaluated in another 10 to 14 days before being cleared to start taking swings. He still appears to be at least six weeks away from returning. So it's yeah on that further end of the 10th, to 12-week timeline they gave us for Josh Young. Not great. Well, the original timeline had him coming back before the end of this month. So this is a this is they push back the timeline considerably for Josh Young. Mm-hmm. Danesby Swanson is expected to re to return from the IL on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:23:28 Tyler McGill is returning to the Met's rotation on Monday. He's 15% rostered. Looks like a two-star pitcher at the Guardians home against the Giants. I don't think he will be a two-star pitcher because Adrian Hauser and Jose Cantana are both scheduled for a start this week. So it sounds, it looks like the Mets are going six-man, at least this time through. A couple names that went to the IL this weekend. Keaton Wynn with a right forearm train, Brian Ramos with a left quad train. And Orioles prospect, Kobe Mayo, went on the minor league aisle with a fractured rib. Let's talk Waverwire pitcher, Scott.
Starting point is 00:24:01 And the first group, John Means, bounced back with a quality start in his third outing. He was up against the Mariners, where he allowed two runs over six innings, had four strikeouts and might be out there only in shallower league, 76% rostered. I know he's one of your sleeper pitchers this week at the White Sox. Obviously, a great matchup there. Nope. I actually bumped
Starting point is 00:24:21 him from the list for two reasons. He's been bumped to facing the Cardinals now. Still a really good matchup. Not as good as the White Sox. Look, Baines is still probably the best one-star pitcher who might be available on the Waverware. But the other reason I bumped him is because another two-star pitcher got added. Dean Kramer, his team
Starting point is 00:24:39 who gets both the white socks and the Cardinals. That's pretty good. So that bum means off the list, unfortunately. But now, good start for Means over the weekend. He is looking like every way we want John Means to look in that he got 11 whiffs on 95 pitches. If he has a rate like that, he's going to be fine. Didn't walk anybody. Of course, we don't want John Means doing that.
Starting point is 00:25:02 It's got to be an elite control pitcher to live up to his upside. And, you know, eight of the 11 whiffs are on. the change-up. So that pitch is playing up like it's supposed to. He looks like the best John. He looks like the best version of John Means and I think needs to be picked up most everywhere. Mackenzie Gore has turned in back-to-back quality starts. He was at the Phillies, six and a third innings, two runs loud, three walks, three strikeouts, the ERA, 330. That's good. 138 whip. Obviously, that's pretty high there for McKenzie Gore. Christian Scott, I have him on this list. He didn't pitch well. He actually let us down. Great matchup.
Starting point is 00:25:39 at the Marlins, four innings, four runs allowed, three strikeouts. He allowed a home run in this one. It's actually back-to-back starts allowing a home run, which will be an issue for Christian Scott at times. But the fact that he's 71% rostered, I feel like we just need to continue mentioning his name until that number is higher. And Alec Manoa has now turned in two strong starts in a row
Starting point is 00:25:58 and maybe turning a corner here. He was up against Tampa Bay where he threw seven shutout innings, one hit, one walk, seven strikeouts. And I didn't watch this game live, but I caught the highlight, Scott. And all the pitches looked so crisp. He was getting great movement on that slider. It looked like a borderline slurve, almost like Jose Berrios' slurve.
Starting point is 00:26:20 It looked like the best that I've seen in a while. I was watching. I actually did watch some of that Alec Munoz start, and one of the Blue Jays broadcasters mentioned that. It kind of looked like Jose Barrios'. So you're spot on there with that. Okay, so what are you going to ask me about these guys? Who do I want to pick up the most?
Starting point is 00:26:39 How do you rank this group? Manoa, Christian Scott, Mackenzie Gore, and John Means. I will say Christian Scott won, obviously. I don't know why that roster rate isn't getting any higher, but it eventually will because he'll get enough strikeouts to justify it. John Means number two, let's go Manoa three here. I'm very encouraged by what I'm seeing.
Starting point is 00:27:03 I have claims in for him in every league where he's still available, which is only the shallower ones. One hit in seven innings, one walk in seven innings. He mentioned after that last start that was so good that he focused on throwing more strikes and trusting his defense, and it seemed like that continued. So that start was 71% strikes.
Starting point is 00:27:26 This start against the race, the one hitter, was 67% strikes, still very good. Compare that to his first start off the I. when he threw only 57% for strikes, which is very, very bad. So it's gone from 57 to 71 to 67, the strike percentage for Alec Manoa. And I believe last year was something like 61.
Starting point is 00:27:49 So it was on the bad end of the spectrum. I'll confirm that real quick. It was a 61% rate, yes, for Manoa last year. So he is trending the right direction in terms of strike throwing. and the stuff looks great from our eye test, at least. The next group, not nearly as exciting, includes Chris Paddock, who had a great start at the Guardians, eight innings to run, six strikeouts,
Starting point is 00:28:18 had 14 swinging strikes. And Paddock is a tough one to figure out right now. I feel like we say that after every start. I mean, he's alternated some great starts mixed in with some really bad starts, and that's why he has a 447 ERA in the season. He's 56% rostered, and he is a SPARP on CBS. Tyler Anderson continues to find a way to get it done. He was at the Rangers, seven innings, one run, four strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:28:41 He might be one of these guys where he just outperforms the peripheral numbers all season long or a large majority of them because, you know, the fifth, the XERA, none of them believe what Tyler Anderson is doing right now. Patrick Sandoval had a strong start at the Rangers, six innings, one run, five strikeouts with 13 swinging strikes, and he continues to fade that fastball, use the changeup and the slider more. four starts in May for Sandoval, a 263 ERA and a 113 whip. And Jose Soriano had one of his best starts yet. He was at Texas as well. Seven and two thirds, one run, five strikeouts there.
Starting point is 00:29:16 He's down to a 330 ERA. But it's a 123 whip. I think that number is always going to be high because he does walk quite a bit of batters. But Scott, any legitimate interest in this group, Soriano, Sandoval, Paddock, and Tyler Anderson. I would say the most interesting to me is Paddock. following this eight three hit innings against the Guardians.
Starting point is 00:29:39 And this was his third start in four that was very, very good. And I noticed what the very, very good starts have in common for Chris Paddock is at least a 20 percent, at least 20 percent slider usage. When he leans into that pitch more, good things happen. And hopefully he's getting that message because, again, he was back to thrown at 21 percent of the time in this start after. They're kind of shying away from it in the previous one. So three of the four, great for Paddock, with the help of the slider. I like how that's looking.
Starting point is 00:30:13 After him, Sandoval probably, for the reasons he already pointed out, when he shies away from the fastball, good things happen, and he's been doing that pretty well lately. Between Tyler Anderson and Jose Soriano, you know, they're distant three and four here on this list. I have no faith in Tyler Anderson. I don't see what he's doing well. I mean, all the ERA estimators are around five, which, you know, they don't see what he's doing well either.
Starting point is 00:30:48 And maybe he'll continue to defy expectations. But I think it's all going to come crashing down at some point. I don't want to be left holding the bag on Tyler Anderson. So by default, he'll go Jose Soriano, who I do think has pretty good upside. he's kind of like Patrick Sandoval and he probably needs to throw his fastball or sinker in his case less. I think it's a sinker of both their cases,
Starting point is 00:31:12 but whatever, some form of fastball less. And he actually up the usage in this 148%. So not the approach we want to see Jose Soriano take, but it worked out this one time against the Rangers. He had a good start. Okay, good for him.
Starting point is 00:31:27 I still don't think he has it all together. So Soriano, Jose Soriano is probably somebody you can leave on waivers in most leagues. This last group includes Michael Lorenzen, who turned in a quality start against the Angels, six and a third, two runs loud, six strikeouts there. He's got a 361 ERA and a 120 whip, but like Tyler Anderson,
Starting point is 00:31:47 the ERA estimator is not really buying it with Michael Lorenzen. Logan T. Allen turned in a great start against the twins, six shutout with seven strikeouts there. Matt Waldron struck out a career high 10 at the Atlanta Braves, five and two thirds innings, one run, 10 strikeouts, 13 swinging strikes, and Bailey Falter had a strong start at the Cubs, seven and two third shoutout,
Starting point is 00:32:07 two walks, two strikeouts in that one. I think more deep league stuff here, Scott, but anything that you saw interesting from Lorenzen, Logan Allen, Waldron, and Billy Falzer. I don't know how Falter is having success either. I don't think he can get away with these like one strikeout outings. I guess it was two strikeouts in this case, but... How dare you under...
Starting point is 00:32:29 How dare you undersell belly falters, Scott? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, no, I don't want to be holding the bag on that one either. I did notice with Michael Lorenzen that he threw more cutters and fewer sliders than this start. And I think that's noteworthy because his slider has been awful. Came into Sunday with a 417 batting average against. So it might be in his best interest to fade that pitch.
Starting point is 00:32:57 He did in this start got good results. still think the upside's pretty limited with Lorenzen. I would rather have Jose Soriano. I'd rather have Tyler Anderson probably from previous group than Lorenzen. But at least there's something to point to and say, okay, maybe this is why Lorenzen was decent this timeout. Matt Waldron, I want to mention him, the knuckleballer, the league's representative knuckleballer right now, had that great outing against the Braves, 10 strikeouts in five and two-thirds innings.
Starting point is 00:33:28 And I think it was a second good outing in a row, but still like a five ERA on the year. I think exactly five. And the Braves offense is just miserable right now. Other than Ozuna, you know, you look up and down that great lineup, that star-studded lineup, but everybody has a 600-something OPS.
Starting point is 00:33:46 It was going to improve, but yeah, I think Waldron caught them at a good time and took advantage. All right, let's take our final break. And when we return, we'll get into the Waverwire hitters. do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk Waverwire hitters.
Starting point is 00:34:02 This or that? Newpar or Joe Adele? Who would you rather have Lars Neupar picking things up in May? He has a 259 batting average, four homers, and an 868 OPS in the month. Joe Adele had another big game on Saturday, one for three with a sock ended shoe, his eighth home run, his eighth stolen base. And the play disciplines still look solid so far for Joe Adele. 24% strikeout rate, zone contact right around 80%.
Starting point is 00:34:28 He's 72% rostered. Newpar, a little bit more available at 45%. Scott, is this one of those where you go with Joe Adele in a Categories League, Newpar in a points league, or is there one that you just legitimately like more than the other? I think it's what you said, Newpar in a points league, Adel, in a categories league, their skill sets are just so suited for each of those formats. Newpar has the higher floor either way you look at it. So if you want to decide with Newpar over,
Starting point is 00:34:58 Adele in a deeper categories league I can understand. But the thing that stands out for me with O'Dell is I keep waiting for him to like really, I keep thinking he's about to go off and just go on this insane hot streak that all his percentages go up. And then he doesn't. And so I go look at the stat cast page again thinking, oh, the strikeout rate must be up.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Oh, the expected stats must have dropped off. And they don't. He still has an expected batting average of 297 and an expected slug of 572. That's 91st and 96th percentile. And it's not like his actual batting average and slugging percentage are bad, but there's room here for improvement if he keeps this, if he keeps doing what he's doing in terms of making contact and the quality of contact. And so far that hasn't dropped off for Joe Adele. Would you drop any of these outfielders for? for Nupar or Adele.
Starting point is 00:35:58 Lordus Gerell. Yeah, I think either one in either format. What about Byron Buxton? Yes, I dropped Byron Buxton. What about Verdugo, who's cooled off a little bit recently? Yeah, I'd drop Verdugo. I might hesitate swapping out Verdugo for Adele in a points league, but if you're selling out for upside, go for Adele for sure.
Starting point is 00:36:21 It was a huge weekend for Matt Chapman. He went three for four with a steal on Friday. He went four for four with another steel on Saturday and at this point has five homers and five steals on the season. His previous career high in slow on bases was four and that came last year. So I don't know that I'm buying Matt Chapman the base dealer, but he had a big weekend, Scott. He's 67% roster. Does that need to be higher? Well, maybe. I was noticing as somebody who lost Max Muncie in a league that wow, third base on the waiver wire is the pits. It's the pit. It's the pit.
Starting point is 00:36:56 and I wish I had a Matt Chapman out there as underwhelming as his year-to-date numbers are. He's striking out a little less this year. Obviously, a change of scenery. Maybe they're letting him run more. Maybe. Maybe. I mean, it's a matter of intent, right?
Starting point is 00:37:12 How much a player runs. And so you could see that dramatically improved for a player one year. As far as what I think of Chapman as a hitter, really? I don't like the way. he's trended the last couple years where he's pulling the ball less and it's kind of
Starting point is 00:37:34 we've seen the same thing with Bo Bichette and in fact I remember reading last spring that the two of them worked on that in that off season and it's made them less productive overall and like Bichette
Starting point is 00:37:50 Chapman has leaned all the more into it this year and is pulling the ball even less and I'm not sure it's to his benefit. In theory, you'd think it'd give him more batting average potential, but that hasn't happened, and it's cost him home runs. So not what I want to see from Chapman, but given how weak third base is and he's hot,
Starting point is 00:38:13 yeah, he's probably, for a lot of you who lost Max Muncie, Chapman's probably the best bet on the way for wire. Yeah, that is a fair point. The injury to Max Muncie, Austin Riley, we have problems there too, so might not have a choice. Chapman's hitting the ball hard again this year but his barrel rate has been legitimately cut in half. Last year
Starting point is 00:38:32 it was 17% this year it's 8.5% so part of the reason is that he's not pulling the ball as you mentioned that is Matt Chapman. How about three names in five outfielder leagues? Luis Matos had a huge weekend he went three for five with 5 RBI on Friday and then three
Starting point is 00:38:48 for five with a home run and six RBI on Saturday. Luis Matos has 17 RBI in eight games played so far. Crazy stuff. 28% rostered. He's hitting more line drives, more fly balls.
Starting point is 00:39:00 The expected stats look great. It's a really small sample size so far, but so far so good. Tommy Fam continues his nice start to the season, three for five with a steal on Friday. Then he went two for four on Saturday. And so far, batting 333 with two home runs
Starting point is 00:39:14 and three steals in 21 games. And Johnny DeLucah, I know he, not you, I think I basically wrote him off because he started sitting. But he started all three games, weekend one for four with a sock and a shoe on Saturday he added another
Starting point is 00:39:29 steal on Sunday he's batting 279 two homers four steals so far Scott how would you rank those in five outfielder leagues Matos fam and Johnny DeLuca I think Matos has to be the clear number one maybe maybe I'm just being steered wrong by this 17 RBI weekend or whatever it was 11 RBI in two days anyway. But it's kind of like what I said about Miguel Vargas, where yeah, Luis Matos
Starting point is 00:40:01 doesn't hit the ball as hard as you'd like, but he does everything else really well. The fact, he struck out just once in his eight games back up from the minors, and he was striking out 9% of the time at AAA. So I think it's fair to say that this is a legitimate part
Starting point is 00:40:20 of Luis Matto's profile, not striking out much. And so if he's able to, if he's able to square up the ball better than he did during his time in the majors last year, the line drive rate is way up. He's pulling the ball and elevate. Mainly he's not putting the ball on the ground. Line drives up and fly balls up so that the power will play up
Starting point is 00:40:38 because a lot of it is to his pull side. And that's a profile that can work, especially when you're not striking out at all. So I think Luis Matos is worth picking up in every league now. Because even in points leagues, okay, he doesn't walk much, but he's not striking out. much. So it's still going to work out if it continues for Matos looks like he's beginning to live up
Starting point is 00:41:00 to his potential. So he's number one. Johnny DeLuca, I like the upside more than Tommy Fam. I am concerned about the rays just pulling the rug out from under him. Like it seemed to be trending that way. And now it's kind of going back the other way. He started all three games this weekend. But they get changed their minds about that.
Starting point is 00:41:23 at the drop of the hat. So I'm a little wary of investing too heavily in Johnny DeLuca, but he is my second choice behind Matos here. Tommy Fam third. Which of these two would you rather roster right now? I think they're especially useful in rotosized lineups, but I think also just nice pieces to have around because they both have bulte position eligibility. Davis Schneider had himself a nice weekend, one for three with his fifth home run on Friday, added two more hits on Saturday. He is one of your sleeper hitters this week. Joey Ortiz also had a big game on Friday. Three for four with his fifth home run added three RBI.
Starting point is 00:42:01 He homered in back-to-back games Wednesday and Friday has started nine of the past ten games for the Brewers. I like what both guys are doing right now. Scott, if you can only choose one, would you go with Schneider or Joey Ortiz? Yeah, that is a tough one. I think in any league where OBP counts, it's got to be Schneider. not that Ortiz has done a bad job of walking himself he's walking a lot yeah yeah
Starting point is 00:42:25 but Schneider's going to be a true standout in that for sure they both have dual eligibility too which is nice second and third for Ortiz second and outfield for Schneider I think they both need to be rostered in a lot more leagues than they are and they have been two of the hitters I've been going after the hardest
Starting point is 00:42:46 when waivers have run the past couple weeks I liked them a lot coming into the year. The big problem was they just weren't playing enough. And now suddenly they're playing close to every day, especially Schneider. So partly it depends on what your positional needs are. Partly it depends on how, well, I guess it wouldn't really depend on how much speed you need. I think Ortiz has this potential to steal more bases, though it hasn't really played out that way. So partly it's positional needs, partly it's your format.
Starting point is 00:43:16 All things being equal. I'll give Schneider the edge because he's a little more solid in the lineup. But I guess I could say Ortiz would be the better batting average source if that's a differentiator for you. I think he has, I think it could be 40 points difference in the batting average between Schneider and Ortiz. So, yeah, maybe if it's more of an OBP league Schneider, if it's more of a batting average league Ortiz. Maybe that's the biggest distinction. Any interest in these two, what they've been doing so far. In the month of May, Josh Bell has turned it on.
Starting point is 00:43:51 He's betting 317, 3 homers, 14 RBI, and a 918 OPS. And Connor Wong added six more hits this weekend. He is now batting 354 on the season with a 916 OPS. Both are widely available as well. Any interest? Josh Bell, Connor Wong. Yeah, I have no idea how Wong is doing this. The strikeout rate is way down.
Starting point is 00:44:14 year was 33% this year it's 19% but everything else is not really buying it uh the xBA is 253 so legitimately 100 points lower than what he's batting right now i think i made a note on long this weekend i made a note that he went four for five with the double on friday so that's not very helpful good use the time with that note yeah his line drive rate is low actually yeah i don't know how Wong's doing it. I would say both of these guys, Josh Bell and Connor Wong, if you haven't needed that position, fine. They're hot. But I don't, I don't know that you want to like stake your season on either one. Some names in deeper leagues. We're talking some of those 15 team leagues. Luke Rayleigh is having himself a nice May. He has hit 386 with three homers,
Starting point is 00:45:03 two steals and a 1097 OPS in the month. He's started 10 of the past 11 games for the Mariners. Michael Massey has been solid. since returning from the IL. He went three for four with a home run on Friday. He added two more hits on Saturday. Alec Berlinson, homered again on Friday, his last five games. He's got 10 hits, two homers, and a steal.
Starting point is 00:45:23 Johan Rojas, Loki has 11 steals so far for the Phillies. Not doing much else outside of that, but if you need speed, he's a name. And Jake Myers of the Astros quietly turned things on. Last four games, nine hits, two homers, six RBI.
Starting point is 00:45:39 He's batting over 300, and he has raised his average exit velocity 6.6 miles per hour year over year hitting the ball a lot harder this season. Any interest got in some of those deep league names Myers, Rojas, Burleson, Massey, and Luke Raleigh. I hadn't noticed how hot Myers got. That is interesting.
Starting point is 00:46:00 And with the eggs of velocity readings being up, I'm going to have to take a closer look at that one. So not ready to talk about Jake Myers. I would say the one of these hitters that I've looked into the most is Alec Berluson because of course I have a lot writing on Alec Berluson. Not that I'm that invested in leagues, but I've always been very high on him and expressed my enthusiasm for him multiple times on this podcast. He doesn't strike out much.
Starting point is 00:46:30 He hits the ball hard, especially in terms of average exit velocity. And now it is translating to numbers. So it's, you know, the home run pace is good. he's batting 292. I just want to see him in the lineup as often as possible. It's been more regular lately, but not regular enough that I think in standard fantasy leagues you can move in on Alec Berluson yet.
Starting point is 00:46:56 But definitely somebody to keep an eye on. Has Jake Myers been playing every day? Pretty close. Loper Fido has started over him in centerfield sometimes. But yeah, the stack cast page looks great. He started six of the past seven games and eight of the past ten. I think Chas McCormick is supposed to be back soon, though, too. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:21 Yeah, I wonder how that will change things. Because I think Loparfitos earn the right to stick around, but they've got to have the bats for him. And Jose Abrae is supposed to be coming back this weekend too, unfortunately. Ah, come on, John Singleton. That's my guy. I know. And that blocks one avenue for low perfido.
Starting point is 00:47:44 Not that we've seen him appear at first base yet, but he could. So I don't know how that's going to shake out. I would say, yeah, you know what? If you have an outfield need, I think I'd lean Myers over Burleson. I think in those deeper, deeper five outfielder leagues. All right. What do we do with these fringe roster starting pitchers? Tristan McKenzie has allowed two earned runs or less in six.
Starting point is 00:48:10 straight and he's got his ear right down to 323, but that comes with a 131 whip. Lots of walks, velocity way down from where it was a couple of years ago for Tristan McKenzie. He's still 79% rostered. He's home against the Mets this week. I know he's pitching well per se right now. I would be alright dropping someone like McKenzie for
Starting point is 00:48:30 like an Alec Manoa or Christian Scott, who we mentioned earlier. Yeah, so Tristan McKenzie entered Sunday leading the majors with 28 walks. That's 5.3 per nine innings. And that's not going to work. That's not going to work. He's also not throwing the ball as hard as he was when he was last healthy. So I am skeptical of his recent success.
Starting point is 00:48:53 Christopher Sanchez turned in one of his best starts of the season. Seven innings, two runs, eight strikeouts to zero walks. He had 12 swinging strikes. No surprise. Eleven of those came on the change-up. And the velocity was actually up in the start between 1.1 and 1.5. five miles per hour. He increased the velocity and didn't walk anybody. I thought that was a notable development here for Christopher Sanchez, who is 80% rostered, so he's not really out there.
Starting point is 00:49:21 I wouldn't start him this week at Colorado, but how are you feeling? What's the temperature checks got on Christopher Sanchez? Would you drop him for someone like an Alec Manoa or Christian Scott? I would if push came to shove because I'm skeptical of the walks. It's great. right that he had none in this start. It's weird that he was throwing the ball even harder, right? Yeah. He was throwing it even harder because we thought that was the cause of all the walks. And he's throwing everything, like more than a mile per hour higher on basically everything in this start.
Starting point is 00:49:54 And it worked out. Yeah, it's a tough one to figure out. I'm not saying Christopher Sanchez is a must start, but a must drop by any means. But I think I would definitely rather have Christian Scott and probably gamble on Alec Manoa. I do want to mention this because I'm not sure we're going to get to it otherwise. There were a bunch of pitchers whose velocity was down more than a mile per hour, and yet they did really well like that. Jesus Lazzardo, Cole Riggins, Shoda Imanaga,
Starting point is 00:50:23 Corbin Burns on the slider. The velocity was down, and yet he had his 19 whiffs, which those have been lacking for burns. So that was weird, wasn't it? Yeah, it was weird. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know if pitchers are like,
Starting point is 00:50:38 realizing that maybe trading off a little velocity for command as to their benefit, I don't know. Or maybe it was just a total blit, but it was weird that it was so many pitchers. Yeah, no, that's definitely fair and worth mentioning. Last name on this list is Luis Severino. He was at the Marlins this weekend, six and two-thirds, five runs loud. Three starts in May. He has a 594 ERA and a 156 whip. He is still 80% rostered.
Starting point is 00:51:03 Would you be all right dropping Luis Severino for any of the names mentioned earlier? Yes, yes. He's getting a lot of ground balls, but nothing else looks that good. Starters hit these starting pitchers this week. Walker Bueller finally looked like himself, kind of, against the Reds this weekend. Six shutout innings, had seven strikeouts, only eight swinging strikes on 78 pitches, but did a great job. Only allowed one hard hit in this game. And look, it's just a positive development. This is the best start that we've seen from him yet. He is 40. And he's another one who took something off. He was throwing, I think it was like a mile per hour softer on his fastball. Actually, in line with where it was when we last saw him healthy.
Starting point is 00:51:49 So he was throwing harder than that when he first came back. But 94.9 is what he averaged. It was 95.2 in 2020, 92, 95.3 in 2021. So we got a back to that level. And it caused Walker Bueller to throw 71% strikes instead of 60%. instead of 61% in his first two starts. And specifically, he went from having his toes on the rubber, just his toes, to the entire foot, which was a suggestion from his pitching coach Mark Pryor.
Starting point is 00:52:21 And the idea was to improve command, maybe sacrificing a little velocity. And that's exactly what happened for Walker Bueller. So it seemed like a good plan. And I think it's reason for optimism. Would you start him at Cincinnati this week? Same opponent two starts in a row. Cincinnati, their offense hasn't been great. They're actually really bad against right-handed pitching,
Starting point is 00:52:42 but it's in Cincinnati. Yeah, I might. It wouldn't be automatic. I'd weigh my options, but I think prior to this start this weekend, it would have been a no for Bueller, and now it's a maybe. All this talk about velocity, Scott,
Starting point is 00:52:57 we've got to talk about Jordan Hicks. His Velo was way down this weekend. He threw five innings of one-run ball with one strikeout. His velocity was down between, 3.6 and 4.4 miles per hour on all of his pitches. Even with that, he has a 230-80RA, a 111-1-Wip. Should you be looking to sell high now on Jordan Hicks following the start? Well, what's crazy is that everything was down like four miles per hour,
Starting point is 00:53:24 and remember everything was already down four miles per hour just because his move from the bullpen to the rotation. So now everything was down eight miles per hour. He averaged, to put this in perspective, 91.4 on his sinker and it was 95.3 entering this start. So I looked into this and apparently he ate his pregame meal, drank a bunch of water and then threw it all up. He threw it all up and didn't have a chance to replenish.
Starting point is 00:53:55 So he was not feel like he wasn't feeling sick, but he was feeling depleted, he said. I don't know why he threw it up if he wasn't feeling sick. But I'm not, I don't have a way to investigate that. But that's the explanation for Hicks. It's kind of to his credit that he just does his usual thing, even when he loses that much velocity, like really says something about the caliber of his pitches.
Starting point is 00:54:24 Is he a sell high? I mean, he's been underwhelming lately because he's pitching like five innings at a time as less than a strikeout per inning guy. And so maybe just the ERA that can be the selling point. But if they go look at his point totals recently, I'm not sure anybody's going to be that persuaded to buy. So I think Jordan Hicks is pretty fringy in a 12-team league. And so if you can sell him as if he's more than fringy, sure.
Starting point is 00:54:56 I'm not eager to drop him, though. I mean, if Christian Scott was out there, sure, I'd drop Jordan Hicks for him. If Alec Manoa was, sure. if Christian Sanchez, Christopher, sorry, Christopher Sanchez was out there. That's pretty close, Hicks between Hicks and Sanchez. That's kind of the range I think Hicks is in. So if you can sell them as more than that, go for it.
Starting point is 00:55:20 Hitters who've picked things up in the month of May, Aaron Judge continues to Rakey hit two more home runs this weekend. And so far in May, betting 386 with seven homers and a 1433 OPS for Aaron Judge. Jose Ramirez hit two home runs this weekend. In May, he has six homers, three steals, an 8.81 OPS. Raphael Devers has homered in five straight. He's now up to nine home runs for the season. Andres Jimenez over his last seven games,
Starting point is 00:55:46 batting 464 with two homers and two steals. Yandy Diaz in the month of May, betting 324 with two home runs, 12 RBI, and an 857 OPS. And John Carlos Stanton has he homered two more times this weekend. He's up to five home runs in the month of May. Has the overall batting average up to 252 with an 817 OPS? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:08 Satan's doing some things right now. Scott, anything that stands out from this group, Stanton, Diaz, Jimenez, Devers, J. Ram, and Judge. Well, I don't think anybody was ever that worried about Judge. I know some people were worried about Devers because he was banged up for a while there, but I don't think anybody was seriously worried about him. And he's kind of just, you know, back to being Rafael Devers. I guess you could say the same for Jose Ramirez.
Starting point is 00:56:34 He's not quite as hot as those other two, but he's fine. Yandi Diaz, I think if you're buying on him now, that's not a bad idea. I doubt you could expect the power production he had a year ago, just because he's never shown that before. But is he going to be a good source of batting average and run scored? I think so from this point forward. I think he's a nice buy, particularly if you're hurting at corner infield. and John Carlos Stanton, I've been pretty harsh with him, I think, for good reason.
Starting point is 00:57:06 And maybe he sinks back to a 190 batting average. But I will say, looking at how many good players have bad batting averages right now, it's kind of hard to hold that against Stanton. You know, the fact he's hitting over 250, even if he was hitting 220, it'd be hard to hold it against them because so many good players are. So you're getting production from him now at a weak position. I think you just enjoy it and we can reassess later. And the expected stats actually look decent for John Carlos Stanton,
Starting point is 00:57:36 253XBA and a 510 expected slug that was entering Sunday's action. We'll run through some pitching leftovers. There was a lot. I'm not going to read off all the stats for each of these got, but I'll throw the names your way and if there's anything notable, feel free. But the first group includes Zach Wheeler, Nestor Cortez, Jesus Lazzardo, and Cole Regens. You already mentioned the Velo for Lazzardo and Regans, anything on the other two, Nestor Cortez and Zach Wheeler.
Starting point is 00:58:02 Yeah, and again, the Velo was down for Luzardo and Riggins, and they were both awesome, and Luzardo needed that especially. So I guess they're trending up. Yeah, there was something with Nestor Cortez related to his changeup. So he got 13 whiffs in his seven innings with no-urn runs against the White Sox. 13 whiffs on 93 pitches. Six were on the fastball. Five were on the change up,
Starting point is 00:58:32 which he threw 16% of the time, one six. Normally that's 6% at the time. So he normally doesn't use it at all, basically. And he used it a decent amount. It got almost half his wifts, or almost a third of his wifts. And it's his best with pitch.
Starting point is 00:58:49 So I think it may be a positive development for Nester Cortez if he begins to rely on that change up more. Hard to gauge in a start against the white socks, obviously, but worth pointing out. Pitching standouts part two, U. Darvish has been awesome since returning from the IL. He has thrown 24 shutout innings and four starts with 24 strikeouts to just three walks during that span. Terik's scuba was awesome again. Chosa Imanaga keeps on rolling. Seven shutout inning, seven strikeouts, 22 swinging strikes for him.
Starting point is 00:59:19 And Grayson Rodriguez returned from the IL. He had a great start. Six shutout, one hit, three walks, seven strikeouts. Anything on Grod, Imanaga, Scoobel, and Darvish. Yes, Darvish. So you mentioned in his 24 shutout innings, you mentioned the strikeouts, you mentioned the walks, only 10 hits allowed in his 24 innings too.
Starting point is 00:59:42 So he's been basically untouchable. And I noticed that he has his best swinging strike rate since 2020. In 2020, he was the short season, obviously, but in 2020, you Darvish finished second in Syung voting to, to Trevor Bauer that year. And he's missing bats. You know, it was way better in 2020, but the point is it's been pretty bad for you,
Starting point is 01:00:06 Darvish the past couple years. And now he seems to be regaining that swing and miss stuff. As a guy who throws like seven, eight different pitches, it's really hard to single out, to really pin down what Darvish is doing differently. But it's effective in basically every way. And given his track record,
Starting point is 01:00:26 think you got to be pretty encouraged by it. Pitching standouts part three. This group includes Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Zach Gallen, and Corbyn Bairns. Anything on that group? Yes. You mentioned Gallin was dealing with the hamstring, but that happened in the fourth inning, and he went six and two-thirds, and he said he's fine, so he's probably fine.
Starting point is 01:00:51 Certainly pitched well. I mentioned Burns took a little velocity off that slider, and I think it was his best swing in this pitch doing that. And that was the last time we talked about, Corbyn Burns, I talked about, man, this guy's not getting any whiffs. I don't know what's going on there. He had 19 total in this start.
Starting point is 01:01:07 Seven were on the slider, which he threw 17% at the time. So I'd be interested in hearing more about if that was intentional or not or what the deal was. Seth Lugo. Let's talk a little about him because I've been pretty skeptical
Starting point is 01:01:27 of his success so far in part because I mean he doesn't miss any bats he misses bats at like a 9% rate if that
Starting point is 01:01:39 really bad swinging strike rate and you know look at his track record that's not outside the norm he's normally mid-threase strikeout rate is whatever but in back-to-back starts
Starting point is 01:01:51 he's got a ton of whiffs 16 in this start against Oakland where he had 10 strikeouts and then in his previous start he had 17 swinging strikes. That was a 12 strikeout effort. He's kind of like U Darvish, he throws a ton of pitches but he's introduced a slurve
Starting point is 01:02:09 at least going by stackast out. He's introduced a slur and a cutter this year. The cutter's occasional, the slurve a little more so. And as a guy who always stood out for like a really high spin curveball, maybe that slurve is playing off of it more to to kind of throw hitters off.
Starting point is 01:02:28 And that's why Seth Lugo has pitched to a 179 ERA and a 0.9Aid whip. Look, it has to regress, but I'm less reluctant to tell you to sell high on Seth Lugo. There's certainly a scenario where I do it, but it's not like, I can't say with all confidence
Starting point is 01:02:49 that Seth Lugo is just going to fall apart and become this fringy, pitcher and a fantasy. He may be able to perform better than that at least. He may be a solid part of your pitching staff all season long if you hold on to him. I'm open to that idea at least. Pitching standouts part four. Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Tanner, Bibi, and Brady Singer. Anything on this group? He went through the name so quickly. Oh, yes. Carlos Rodon. Very excited about this. Oh, yeah. So the story, the talk with Carlos Rodon all season long has been the slider, right?
Starting point is 01:03:29 And the sliders played much better lately and he's had more success and were encouraged by it. Well, in this start, which looks like just a good start against the White Sox, two run runs at six inning, six strikeouts. Okay. 23 swinging strikes on 99 pitches. Seven of them came on the slider. It's great. But then where did all the other come from? Well, nine of the swinging strikes were on the fastball
Starting point is 01:03:53 and seven were on the changeup. What change up you ask? That's a pitch he's only thrown 6% of the time. Well, he threw at 18% of the time in this one. And he got seven whiffs with it. And I think that probably helped the fastball play up too. That's probably a big reason why the fastball got nine wifts. Those pitches tend to play off each other, right?
Starting point is 01:04:13 Fastball and change up. So if that continues for Carlos Rodon, I don't know. maybe there's even a higher level he can ascend to here in fantasy. Definitely going to be something to monitor going forward, the change abuse for Carlos Rodan. Did want to mention with Rodan that he has just five walks total over his last six starts. So I think that improved control has also helped quite a bit. And for Tanner Bybee real quick, seven innings, one run, eight strikeouts.
Starting point is 01:04:45 Velocity was up on everything. Fastball was up 1.6 miles per hour, slider up 1.1. changeup was up 1.2 and arguably the best start of the season for Tanner Bybee in that one. Pitching standouts, part five. Final group, Mitch Keller, Hunter Green, and Freddie Peralta, Scott,
Starting point is 01:05:02 over his last five starts, a 623 ERA and a 146 whip. Now, he was a pitcher whose velocity was down and it didn't work out. Correct. And in fact, the slider, the velocity on the slider was down three miles per hour.
Starting point is 01:05:16 Three. With three exclamation parks, according to your show notes. That's right. I don't know. I mean, his FIP and XFIP, Freddie Peralta, still look better than last year. They're still in the low threes.
Starting point is 01:05:35 So he was so hot at the start of the year that maybe this is some just like regression that needed to happen. I know that doesn't sound very scientific, but I'm not going to abandon ship on Freddie Peralta, even though he's been shaky late. I do want to say with Mitch Keller, because he's had three good starts in a row now.
Starting point is 01:05:56 He mixes up his pitch usage a lot, but the one thing I've noticed that the three good starts have in common for Mitch Keller, he's throwing his cutter harder, a harder cutter for Mitch Keller, which is maybe helping everything play up. He's a tinkerer. I think we've all expressed optimism at some point
Starting point is 01:06:16 that he would tinker his way into more success, and maybe the harder cutter is how Keller has done that. Not saying he's must start right now, but it's probably must roster. Some quick hitting leftover is Gunner Henderson is picking the power backup after a slow start to the month of May. He homered in three straight.
Starting point is 01:06:35 He's now up to 15 home runs for the season, which is tied for the league lead. Taylor Ward homered in three straight entering Sunday, and he's having a nice season, batting 275 with an 807 OPS. Juan Soto had a monster game on 7th. Saturday, four for four with a double dong and three RBI. Bryce to rank continues his great season.
Starting point is 01:06:54 He added six hits and two steals. He's let off 10 straight for the Brewers. Kyle Tucker is having a, excuse my French, a hell of a season so far. Two for five with a double dong on Sunday. He also has 15 home runs, which is tied for the league lead. And jerks in pro far,
Starting point is 01:07:12 maybe a conversation for another day, Scott. Yeah. I don't know, man. Like, he's just doing it. He's getting all the hits. He went three for the lead. for four. He's battened 335. He's got seven homers, three steals, 944 OPS, almost as many walks his strikeouts, hitting the ball really hard. It's, I don't know. I mean, at some point,
Starting point is 01:07:29 we might have to, uh, concede, concede defeat, seed defeat. Well, I think it's fair to say he's, look, I'd still consider him a sell high. I still don't think you want to put your faith in Jurekson pro far, but is he must start right now? Of course he's must start right now. And I have noticed a higher line drive rate in a more up-the-middle approach for him this year. That is something I've noticed in the data that might be, that might explain to a degree the success he's having, Djerks and ProFAR. It's a subtle change in both cases. It's not anything dramatic. But, you know, more line drives, more up-the-middle approach, both of them, both of those would lend themselves to a higher batting average.
Starting point is 01:08:14 Maybe he can remain Maybe he can remain a top 40 type outfielder. Maybe. Especially the way that outfield has gone so far this season. So anytime someone is performing like this, hey, credit where it's due. Jerks and ProFar is doing it right now. Some bullpen updates.
Starting point is 01:08:33 There wasn't a lot going on this weekend. I wanted to mention just a few quick ones. For Tampa Bay on Friday, P. Fairbanks, struck out one for his fourth save. Saturday, he was unavailable. It was lefty, Garrett Clevenger, who picked up his third save. But it looks like, yeah, I didn't look into the velocity. Did you see the velocity for Fairbanks, Scott?
Starting point is 01:08:53 It's not any better, but he's pitching well. Yeah. It's high, you know, like at some point, it's like, well, if it's 98 instead of 100, does it really matter? I mean, it might matter, but it might not. For the Padres on Friday, Robert Suarez worked the eighth inning with a two-run lead against two, three, and four in the Braves lineup. He gave up two hits
Starting point is 01:09:16 but got out of it. It was Jeremiah Estrada who got his first save of the season, maybe second save. In the ninth inning, I think they just clearly wanted to use Suarez in the highest leverage situation in the eighth. And we mentioned this earlier, but for the Orioles on Sunday, Craig Kimball
Starting point is 01:09:32 back in the closers role, he struck out two for his ninth save of the season. To stream or not to stream on Monday, and actually there's some solid name here. I think Dean Kramer at the Cardinals, Michael Waka against the Tigers is fine. And then maybe one of Joe Ross or Ryan Weathers, they're facing each other? I think I would go with Ross. I think Kramer and Walker are the clear standouts here.
Starting point is 01:10:01 If we need a third, I might even say Tyler McGill at Cleveland over both those other two, but it's a distant third any way you look at it. On Tuesday, I will go with, hmm, I kind of like Mize at KC, Alec Marsh against the Tigers, Robert Gasser at the Marlins. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, Andrew Abbott's pitching well,
Starting point is 01:10:28 but he's home against the Padres. Yeah. I don't love it. I mean, I think Zach Lattel is the best pitcher here. So he's going against the Red Sox, middle of the road offense. I think he'd be my number one choice, though. Zach Lattel, and then Casey Mize, and then Robert Gasser.
Starting point is 01:10:45 I don't like Marsh against the Tigers. Isn't a bad play, but I don't really trust what he's doing. We are going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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