Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Pirates Promoting Top Prospect Konnor Griffin! - Emergency Podcast (4/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: April 2, 2026Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers react to the news that the Pirates are promoting top prospect Konnor Griffin! What's the upside and downside for Griffin? Should you try and sell-high in redraft leagues...? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Now here's Frank Scott and Chris.
Well, we didn't have to wait long.
The Pirates are promoting top prospect Connor Griffin.
Welcome in to a bonus emergency edition of Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, April 3rd.
I am Frank Stamphle joined by Chris Towers.
And this is what I'm talking about.
The Pirates are calling up Connor Griffin to make his debut on Friday,
the Pirates Home Opener.
And I know we've talked a lot about him all spring training.
Let me remind you of the numbers from last.
year. As a 19-year-old, he hit 333 with 21 homers, 117 run scored, 94 RBI, 65 steals, and a 941 OPS
across three different levels that included 21 games up at AA. And Chris, apparently the Pirates,
saw enough at just five games of AAA that they are calling him up. So, some believe, I'm not going to
say everybody, but this could be the best prospect since Mike Trout. There is a lot of
of hype around Connor Griffin and rightfully. So very exciting times. Chris, what are your expectations
here for Connor Griffin? Well, first I just want to say, they grew up so fast. It feels like it was
just a week ago that he wasn't ready for the majors and now he's here. And I've always said
that five games at AAA was the perfect amount of seasoning. So now that we've got those dumb jokes out
the way. I stole one of them from our boss, RJ White. Now that we've got those dumb jokes out of the
way, the likely, the median outcome here is Connor Griffin probably struggles to have her
contact and hits like 240 and I don't know, 15 homers and 30 steals and is just kind of a pretty good
but not incredible fantasy player. He's 19 years old when he makes his debut. It's asking an
awful lot for him to set the world on fire. But he is capable of doing that. The physical tools
here are outrageous. He steps onto a baseball, a major league field immediately as one of the best
athletes in the league. You're talking, you know, maybe 70 grade raw power and 70 grade speed
in athleticism. He's built like an NFL tight end at 19 years old. He puts that athleticism into
action in games. He had 65 stolen bases last year and 122 games across three levels of the miners.
Got to AA as a as a 19 year old and more than held his own in 21 games there.
Down at AAA, his max EV was 113 miles an hour in five games.
This kid has every single tool you could possibly hope for.
And it's just a question of whether the refinements there for him to be an impact player.
And look, Mike Trout was not.
as a rookie. You know, he eventually did become an impact player, but when he got called up at 19,
he struggled in his first taste of the majors. That very well could happen with Connor Griffin.
It's entirely possible. But when you're talking about a guy getting his debut at 19, the last one
to do it was Juan Soto as a position player. The fact that he was in the discussion to be called up
at 19 indicates that he's an incredibly special talent. The fact that he will be debuting,
at 19. I mean, you look at the last 30 years of 19 year old debuts, I think like,
maybe Cesaristuris, I think debuted as a 19 year old and wasn't great.
Edgar Renta Ria was only like a three-time all-star.
For the most part, though, guys who debut at 19 are superstars eventually and usually quicker
than not.
So is he the best prospects in Mike Trout?
I don't know, dude.
Ronald Ocuna was pretty good.
Fernando Tatis was pretty good.
Like there's been a lot of really, really good prospects in the last 15 years or so.
He's in that discussion.
Connor Griffin is.
And the upside for fantasy is that he's a first round pick next year.
To add some context to this age to level production, you mentioned he's the youngest
position player to be called up since Juan Soto.
This is per Sarah Lange's.
The first teenage position player in a game within his team's first seven games of a season
since Adrian Beltray back in 1999.
He was pretty good.
And the youngest position player in a game
within his team's first seven games of a season
since Andrew Jones in 1997.
Oh, just got inducted into the Hall of Fame.
So this is the company of player
that Connor Griffin is joining
being called up at 19 years old
and considering what he did at the minor league level last year.
Again, that age to level production.
And I think what you said about a median expectation, Chris,
is correct, right?
Like, if you look at projections on fan graphs right now,
ATC has him for like 257, 13 home runs, 22 steals,
which that's over 114 games.
They probably didn't factor in that he would get called up this soon.
So if you kind of expand that out for him being up at this point,
that's probably like a, you know, 16, 17 homer 30 steel guy right away.
And usually projections are really conservative and cautious with prospects.
So that tells you-
have wider error bars than projections are able to account for.
You've got some really, really high-end outcomes here,
and you've got a lot of outcomes where he's just overwhelmed
because he's 19 and that's asking a lot.
Can I very quickly run through the full list of players in the last 30 years
to debut as a 19-year-old and get at least 100 play appearances
because it's a really fun list?
Sure.
Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Mani Machado, Mike Trout, Justin Upton, BJ Upton.
Good job, family.
Adrian Beltray.
Andrew Jones, Edgar Renteria, Alex Rodriguez.
So like, that's an awesome list.
Worst case scenario, I guess, is Edgar Renteria.
He's probably the worst player on that list.
And like, I'm pretty sure he made three,
he made five All-Star games.
He got some down-ballot MVP votes.
If you're old enough to remember Edgar Renta,
he was a very good fantasy shortstop
at a time when that was hard to come by.
Like, just being here at 19 indicates we're talking about
an incredibly special player.
It might not come to,
in his very first season, but the upside is outrageous.
And we are likely going to be talking about Connor Griffin as one of the best players in
baseball eventually.
Let's take a quick break.
When we return, we'll talk about the upside, the downside cases here for Connor Griffin
in his first season.
We'll do that right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.
Again, the big news, massive news.
The pirates are promoting top prospect Connor Griffin, who will make his debut on.
Friday. Chris, let's just talk upside downside cases here for Connor Griffin. So one of my bold
predictions was going to be that from the moment he gets called up, Connor Griffin goes 2040 this
year. So I think that's like kind of the upside case for him. And I think long term, I mean, we could
be looking at like a 40 40 type guy like down the road. And again, one of the top picks in fantasy
baseball. The downside for me is that, you know, the plate discipline last year at AA, while it was a small
sample. I think, you know, still needs some work. I know he had more walks and strikeouts in
AAA this year, but it's a five game sample, so it's incredibly small. So give me your upside
downside cases here for Connor Griffin in his first season. The downside case is he's completely
overwhelmed. He strikes out 35% of the time and they send him down before the end of April.
Point blank, that's what the downside case is for any top prospect getting called up. That's pretty
much what happened to Mike Trout when he got called up. Let me, let me, he played 40,
games as a 19 year old he had a 672 ops he struck out 30 times and 135 plate appearances
five homers four stolen bases he just wasn't ready well the upside is what mike trout did as a 20 year
old i guess i mean probably not quite like that's unrealistic mike trout was a 326 hitter
with 49 steals and 30 homers in his first full season crazy that's ridiculous and that's asking
too much but that is the kind of prospect we're talking about like what what was
Ronald Acuna's rookie season.
26 homers, 16 stolen bases in 111 games.
He had 293.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
His rookie season was 22 homers, 16 steals
while hitting 317 and 84 games.
That's asking a lot,
but this is the type of player we're talking about.
I think the problem with like,
what's the downside case for Connor Griffin?
What's the upside cases?
The downside cases are always going to be
lower because he could the downside cases are he just doesn't stick in the majors and if he's good
enough to stick he's probably going to be a really good fantasy player just because of the skill set
there's going to be you know 15 plus power 30 plus steals I think is the realistic floor if he
sticks around the ceiling is 25 and 40 with a good batting average like there might be some plate
discipline issues. He might struggle to make enough contact, but I really think the ceiling
outcomes here are outrageously high. And so this is what even when he was getting sent down,
we were still saying, yeah, he's probably worth taking around 150th in drafts just because
one, he was probably going to be promoted fairly quickly and two, the upside is worth chasing here.
You know, we've got him on our beat FBT and FBC team.
team now.
Yeah.
Feeling better about that one than Jack Caglione.
I'm not dismissing Jack Caglione, but he's hitting everything on the ground right now.
I'm excited about Conner Griffin.
How could you not be?
Yeah.
You need to temper that excitement and not just declare he's already one of the best players in baseball.
But when you're talking about these kind of special talents, he might get there really quickly.
You know, these guys aren't on the same timetable as everyone.
They don't follow.
You know, we talked a lot about like Hall of Fame caliber players and their aging curves at the end of their careers tend to be a lot more gentle than normal players.
You know, guys who hit 35 don't tend to fall off when they're special players like that.
It works at the same at the beginning of their careers.
Sometimes it takes a little while, but Vladimir Guerrero, he wasn't a great player, a great hitter at first, but he held his own.
you know i i think connor griffin has the skills to hold his own and if he does hold his own
because of the specific way his production is likely to be shaped with all those steals
he's going to be really good for fantasy even if he's not a superstar and i think that's a really
good point too because the really high-end prospects i know a lot of prospects that get called up
they fail right away they go down they come back up and some of them come back to make an impact
the really high-end guys over the past decade have really kind of made impacts quickly
right? You think about Leo Rodriguez and how he held his own right away and you know it took a couple of months, but yeah.
He was like a 20-20 guy right away. Yeah, his first season, he was incredible. Yeah. You think about a lot of like even like Michael Harris when he first got called up. He was amazing right away. And you mentioned Tatis and Acuna and a lot of these guys. Like as soon as they got called up, they were just really, really good. Yeah. Right away. I think the key distinction between those guys and someone like Jackson Holiday is Jackson Holiday also, he got called up at 20. I think he wasn't 19, but he was close.
he was not the super, super toolsy guy that Connor Griffin is and Fernando Tatis and Ronald Acuna and those guys.
He was more of a really advanced skill set with pretty good tools.
And that's harder, I think, to judge against low-level competition.
Like if you're just more advanced than everyone in the minors, you can run into a point where now you're at the major league level, everyone's talented.
and everyone can perform.
You know, everybody's got the skills.
So I'm not saying Connor Griffin is necessarily a significantly better bet
than Jackson Holiday to hit the ground running.
But again, if he holds his own, he's going to be a very good fantasy player,
even if he's not.
And like Bobby Witt, I think had like a 92 WRC plus as a rookie.
He was not a great hitter.
He was like a $12.
Had some pop.
That's kind of my expectation for Connor Griffin.
my median expectation here.
Yeah, and this should go without saying,
but if he's available in any leagues out there,
Connor Griffin is a must-add player.
On CBS, he's already 89% rostered on Yahoo,
76%.
So just go check.
You play in a 10-team league, shallow 12-teamer.
He has shortstop and outfield eligibility already on Yahoo.
And then on ESPN, 40% rostered.
So if you play on ESPN, just like, go add him.
Like, the last player on your bench,
just drop that player to add Connor Griffin
and see what happens here.
Chris, where will you rank Connor Griffin at first?
I know he has the ability to soar up rankings.
And would you toy with the idea of selling high?
Because I know there's going to be a lot of hype around Connor Griffin right away.
That's always a worthwhile discussion.
And I think you can make the case and certainly people have that the height of any top prospects value is the day they get called up.
That's the kind of thing where it's like, yeah, unless it isn't, you know?
Like, sure, it could be.
that the height of Connor Griffin's value is the day he gets called up,
unless he's a 20-30 guy as a rookie, in which case, no, that's not the case.
Yeah.
So, like the only way that would have been worth it is if you get a second or third round pick
in return right away.
Yeah, you've got to get Zach Netto or CJ Abrams.
And he might just be as good as those guys already.
You know, it's not the likeliest outcome, but you can't really talk in
likeliest outcomes when it comes to these kind of guys because the high-end outcomes can be so rewarding
that it is worth chasing them even if they're unlikely.
So yeah, sure.
I think you can try to trade Connor Griffin, but if I'm doing that, I need a slam dunk top 100 player.
Right now.
So that's like a top, all right, top 100 player.
That's probably a top, I don't know, 75 hitter.
Would you do it for Michael Harris?
I don't think so
Yeah
I mean like I
But we said this all along Chris
Like if we knew Connor Griffin was going to be up on opening day
He probably would have been a top 100 pick
Yeah
Yeah so I might need like a top 75 guy
You know who would you rather have rest of season
Connor Griffin or Jackson Cheerio
Truro
Because I expect Trio back like mid to late April
And yeah
I expect him to be like a 25 25 pace guy right away
Or even a 30 30 pace guy
Um
Jaron Duran
You take Jared Duran over Connor Griffin
Connor Griffin could be anything
He could even be Jaron Duran
Yeah
I feel like I would just need something more than that
I don't know what
Okay
But that's the right range
That's like around 75
That's where Jaron Duran's ADP was
But then you and then you look at like
Tyler Soderstrom
Good hitter
I think if someone
If I had Connor Griffin and someone
Offer me Tyler Soderstrom
Even though I'm gonna rank Tyler Soderstrom
ahead of him
Right
I don't think I'd make that trade
I don't think so either
Because I think Tyler Soderstrum
high-end outcomes are pretty similar to what he did last year,
maybe a little better,
and Connor Griffin's are, what, that plus 35 steals, 40 steals?
Yeah.
You know, what's Soderstrom end up?
It's like 26 home runs?
20.
That year, yeah.
So, yeah, like, I'm going to rank Soderstrom ahead of Connor Griffin.
I think Connor Griffin, in the overall and in the overall is going to be around 150 for me
and probably at shortstop right around 15.
I think that, I think if you wanted to take him ahead,
of Danesby Swanson, that would probably be fine.
But then you get into like Trevor Storing, Jeremy Pena and William Domas, and it's like,
that's harder to justify just because those guys can do what we're hoping Connor Griffin does.
And they've done it before.
And they've done it before.
Right.
So I'm probably rank him around like 15th or 16, Chris, but I think, yeah.
Connor Griffin has the ability to soar up the rankings, right?
Like if he comes up, gangbusters first month, five homers, five steals, hitting 280, I mean,
he could rank as like a top 10 shortstop.
right away. And he could honestly, like, he could climb as high as, like, six or seven.
I think six. I'm looking at it and it's like the top five, Bobby Witt, Ellie Delacruz,
Gunner, Henderson, Francisco, Indoor, Trey Turner. It's going to be real hard to break into
that group. Right. When you've got like Trey Turner who could hit 310 with 20 homers and 35 steals.
But then like Zachary Netto, Herald or Pardomo, Mookie Betts. I don't, I don't think it's
impossible that he gets ahead of that group. Right. Yep. I would agree with that. And I think we're
shaking him over McGonigle and Weatherholt,
as impressed as we have been by those guys so far.
I like them all.
They're basically all ranked in a row.
It's 16, 17, 18 at shortstop.
But yes, I will slide Connor Griffin ahead of those guys.
How does this affect the rest of the pirates?
My guess is that Connor Griffin will play at shortstop,
obviously, Nick Gonzalez, I think will remain at third base.
He's still young enough and had the prospect pedigree.
And I think Jared Triolo just becomes like a true utility player here for the pirates.
Last question, Chris, why didn't they just have him up on opening day?
Is it because it's like they want him for the home opener and like sell the tickets and sell the hope and all that?
It's just, you know, if you could have helped you in your first five or six games, why didn't you just have him up on opening day?
I don't think there's a good answer to this question.
I think every answer is cynical in some direction.
Is it they wanted an extra pop for opening day?
That seems reasonable.
Is it they wanted a little extra leverage in the contract negotiation?
I did see Jim Bowden suggested that the pirates still believe they're going to announce an extension for Connor Griffin along with his promotion.
I'll probably wait for his first Homer and then extended.
Well, yeah, and I think that those are probably likely explanations.
I don't think the answer is we needed to see something in those five games and we saw it.
Like I just, that would be silly.
That would be a silly way to run a baseball team.
We didn't think he was ready, but five games against non-major league talent.
Oh, now he's ready.
No, I don't think that's the answer.
Look, I think sending him down was a perfectly reasonable response to his spring training.
Right?
Like, he, I don't think he walked at all in spring training.
He had like a 25% strikeout rate.
He really didn't do anything except for hit a few home runs.
I think that was perfectly reasonable.
I think it was also reasonable to just say, yeah, he might not be 100% ready,
but he is clearly our best option at shortstop, and we're just going to call him up on opening.
day. I think this in between is just where it's like, what are we, what was accomplished here?
What did we learn? I don't think there's any good answer to that, but I'm glad he's here.
Yeah, that's all. I can't exactly explain the thought process here.
Appointment viewing Friday, 4.15 p.m. Eastern Time Pirates hosting the Orioles,
and you will get to see Connor Griffin in his major league debut.
We are going to wrap there for Chris. I and Frank.
Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.
And we will be back again later tonight.
Pokemon Friday.
I love that.
And we'll see you then.
Bye-bye.
Mount Podcasts.
