Fantasy Baseball Today - Pitcher Regression, Double Dongs & the Drop-O-Meter! (5/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 25, 2022

What happened with Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease and other pitchers who regressed on Tuesday (2:23)? ... Is it time to re-add Frank Schwindel after his double dong (12:45)? What about Danny Jansen? ... Let's fire up the DROP-O-METER for Josiah Gray, Tyler Mahle and George Kirby (22:43)! ... Should those pitchers be dropped for Roansy Contreras and Aaron Ashby (26:47)? ... News and notes (29:15): we have a promising update on Jacob deGrom. ... Add Luis Arraez or Tommy La Stella (36:40)? ... Sonny Gray and Noah Syndergaard were very impressive (37:40). ... What about the rest of the pitching leftovers from Tuesday (40:20)? We wrap up with hitting leftovers, bullpens, streamers and Fantasy Justice (50:05)! Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. If you wanted home runs, we got a bunch of them on Tuesday. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, May 25th. Frank Sanful joined by Scott White today on the show.

pitcher regression, lots O double dons, the drop o meter, and much more. But before that, Scott, I have a little question for you. Are you ready? I think so. I don't know what's coming. Do you feel like they're sneaking some juicy balls back in there? Because I don't know, man, it just seems like fly balls that were not flying out a couple of weeks ago. They're just traveling a little bit further now.

Hmm. It's a conspiracy theory, but... It's, I mean, certainly couldn't put it past them, right? The home run to fly ball rate has improved more from April to May than I thought it would. So, I mean, it's still not back to last year's levels, but it's improved more than I thought it would. Which, you know, there was the idea out there that the change would be more drastic between the cold months and the warm months because of the humid. and the humidor used in more humid settings would actually make the ball more springy,

would help it travel farther in the more humid settings. So maybe that's what's happening. But, yeah, again, we couldn't put it past the mixing in old balls either. It would not surprise me one bit, you know, getting this negative publicity about offense being down and constantly changing the ball. All right, let's just change the ball again. Again, I don't have any inside sources or anything.

I'm just kind of making this up as I go along, but I don't know. We'll see how it plays out for the coming months, but I don't know. Seems like offenses is kind of coming around again. Anyway, take it away, Susan. Oh, my goodness gracious! Speaking of those home runs and regression,

Scott, why don't you kick us off? Oh, my goodness gracious from Tuesday. Yeah, I'll kick us off with Zachary Gallen, Zach Allen of the Diamondbacks who entered Tuesday with a 114 ERA and then came the regression against the Royals of all teams. He gave up six earned runs in five and a third innings. Now, it was inevitable that he would regress and say he wasn't going to have a 114 ERA. Even after this start, it's up to 222.

So, you know, you look at the ex-phib. at 361. And, yeah, I mean, he had been pitching over his head, but he'd been pitching well. I'm not going to take anything away from me. He'd been pitching much better than I thought he was going to, given the way his swinging strike rate cratered with the elbow injury, once he returned from the elbow injury last year.

There is a discrepancy, a pretty big discrepancy between his ex-fip and his FIP. I mentioned the X-P-361. the FIP is only 277. And to remind you of the difference, FIP gives an estimate of ERA based on strikeout walk and home run rates. X-FIP does based on strike-out walk-and-fly ball rates. And I had taken to citing X-FIP more during the juice ball era when it seemed like any ball put in the air had a chance to get out.

but if we are past that era and the hitting a ball in the air isn't in itself a bad thing for a pitcher putting a ball in the air isn't in itself a bad thing for a pitcher it actually could be a good thing if it's not a high quality fly ball maybe it is time to start emphasizing FIPP instead of XFIP again that's something I've been thinking about I'm not totally sure I'm there but I'm considering it

I saw you tweeting about that too on Tuesday, Scott. And my retort would be, why not use Sierra? And Sierra is something that I've kind of used more of the past couple of years. It kind of just takes X-FIP and FIP, and it adds another element. And that is balls and play. So Sierra kind of assumes that pitchers have control over balls and play,

whereas if they're throwing a bunch of sinkers, they're trying to get ground balls, so on and so forth. So it takes quality of contact, well, not quality of contact, but the type of contact that you're allowing fly balls, ground balls, line drives, and it kind of works that into the FIP and XFIP equation as well. And that's how you get Sierra. So why not use that, I guess, would be my question.

I'm not sure that I understand the methodology behind Sierra to vouch for it. Like, they're usually pretty close. XFIP and Sierra especially are usually pretty close. I feel like XERA might be an even better version of Sierra. at this point. But, you know, there's not a huge difference between them. I think FIP is probably the purest of the ERA estimators, and it just didn't make sense to use it anymore during the juice ball era

because, as I said, like seemingly anything put in the air had the potential to be a home run. So a pitcher may have had good home run luck up to that point that would make his FIPP seem better, than it should be, which is why I was emphasizing ex-fip instead. And why do we see that big discrepancy between the FIP and the X-FIP for Zach Allen is that his home run to fly ball ratio entering Tuesday was just 2.5% for his career. That's 12.6% and he's allowing more fly balls this year than ever before.

So based on what Scott was saying, allowing more fly-balls, that X-FIP is assuming that more of those are going to go out as home runs. and who knows, maybe as the weather continues to heat up, we will see more of those balls go out for Zach Allen, and he'll start to climb closer to that ex-fib. Hopefully, we did a good job explaining this because I understand how it can be very, very confusing. But basically, those ERA estimators are there to kind of show you

a true skill of what a pitcher has done to this point. And I kind of didn't even mention really the fantasy angle, just that I had seen some people inflating Gala value based on that microscopic ERA he's had so far. And yes, he's pitched better than I thought he would. I moved him into my top 30 among starting pitchers after he began the year like around 60th for me. But like the numbers didn't back up him dominating to quite that extent.

So this is a reminder that he's probably more like a number three pitcher and fantasy than the number one he might have been performing. warming like up to this point. All right. Yes. And again, Scott has Zach Allen at SP 29. I've got him down at SP 35, which seems like the right range. He's pitched very well, but obviously there's still injury risk kind of underlying there for Zach Allen as well. A couple other pitchers got got hit with a bunch of regression on Tuesday. Dylan Seesman, absolutely crushed by the Red Sox. He gives up seven earned runs over three innings, two home runs allowed, nine hard hits, negative 11 fantasy points on CBS, a 21 ERA in the start. Chris Bassett was the other one, destroyed at the Giants.

He gave up eight runs on eight hits, three walks, three homers allowed, over four and a third innings. He had an ERA over 16 in this one. Looks like he could. He was in line for the loss before, but the Mets have furiously come back and have taken the lead. So no loss there for Chris Bassett. Anything to actually be worried about here, Scott, with CIS and Chris Bassett. So CES's ERA jump from 309 to 424 with this outing. However, his ex-fip is only 274, and contrasting it with GALN, his FIP, is also 274. So, you know, he's been one of the best swing and miss pitchers in the game this year.

I think CIS is going to have his ups and downs because of efficiency and walk issues, but I don't think he's going to get knocked around very often, like, like happened to get the Red Sox in this one. Bassett might be a little more concerning. So this is two bad starts in a row for him. His ERA has jumped from 234 to 391 during that time. His ex-fip is pretty much right in line with that 384. His FIP, for what it's worth, is 450.

But we'll keep using X-FIP for now and say he's basically regressed to the point he should be. Now, he has, over the past couple years, outperforming. performed those ERA estimators and, you know, maybe that'll happen again. Maybe it's just a blip for him here. But another pitcher who was probably pitching over his head at the start of the year, he doesn't have big strikeout ability. He doesn't have, he's not like some extreme ground ball guy. He's just, he's a good strike thrower and a good guy who mixes his pitch as well.

and tends to be a pretty good starter because of that, but not, not, I want to go as far as to call Bassett High-inth. He's a Jack of All Trades, Master of Nun kind of guy. He throws all these different kind of pitches. I've talked him up as a by-high candidate at times this year because he's throwing his breaking pitches a little bit more, which has led to a higher strikeout rate for Chris Bassett. I think better days are coming.

I mean, obviously this is a pretty rough stretch for him. And the last one I'll mention here, Scott, Pablo Lopez, kind of a mixed bag. It started off, not great. He gave up an inside-the-park home run. I think it was first batter of the game against Kevin Kiermeyer. He gives up four runs on nine hits

over seven innings, Pablo Lopez does. Still winds up with eight strikeouts in this game, 21 swinging strikes. So, you know, the overall line doesn't look great, but 21 swinging strikes, still pretty awesome. Yes, it is. Yeah.

And plus, he's going to regress. I mean, at some point, he had a sub-2 ERA at this point. just, Pablo Lopez is not going to pitch to that the entire season. So, of course. Even after this start, his ERA is 2.04, you know, even if he pitches to, you know, a high two's ERA or a low three's ERA, something like that the rest of the season, which would be fine. It would still be great for where you drafted him and would be a top 25 starting pitcher.

I think that is all fair with Pablo Lopez. But contrasting it with Bassett, 282XIP, 284 FIP. Oh, yeah. So, yeah, I think Pablo Lopes. Lopez, I think I have him like 16th, 17th in my starting pitcher rankings rest of season. He's pretty close to an ace at this point. If you could guarantee me, he could stay healthy for a full season's never made more than 21 starts before in a season. Then I might push him into the top 12 if you could guarantee that.

All right. Top 20 starting pitcher Pablo Lopez is ranked for each of us, Scott Chris and myself. He just has to stay on the field. We mentioned Dylan C's got rock. by the Red Sox. They put up 16 runs on 18 hits. Trevor Story went two for five with his eighth home run, his sixth in the last five games for him. Raphael Devers went two for five with his 10th home run. Seven of those coming in May.

J.D. Martinez, three more hits. He's now batting 361. And Franchi Cordero, kind of the unsung Red Sox player right now, went two for three with two runs scored, two RBI. It's got any interest in the deepest of leagues in Franchi Cordero.

He started six of the last eight games. for the Red Sox? It would have to be a really deep league. He's kind of been a fantasy darling in the past because the quality of contact has been pretty good. But it's going to take a lot, I think, for him to enter the standard mixed league discussion. All right, let's move into, oh my goodness gracious for me,

Frankie Two Bombs. If you listened last year, you remember Frank Schindel was nicknamed so famously. by myself. Frankie two hits. Because every night, this guy, multiple hits. He was awesome. Second half of the year with these Chicago Cubs. This year, kind of a rocky start. Got sent down. Something's happened.

He was back up the next day. They needed an extra bat there in the lineup. And Frank Shmendell's been a lot better recently. Three more hits on Tuesday, including those two home runs over his last 13 games. He's batting 294 with four home runs. He is 48% rostered. Scott, what do you think of this recent stretch by Frank Spendell? would you be looking to re-ad him if he was dropped in your leagues?

First base is probably the most difficult position to break into in fantasy. It's like the one where there's enough to go around, and it's the only one where Schwendell is eligible, and no matter how well he hits, you know, he's not going to walk much. I think it's just a hot streak. Obviously, he was hot for two months to end last season, so it's worth keeping an eye on, but I'm not especially motivated to add him right now.

Okay, would you... It always surprises me how rostered Jesus Aguilar is. It might be something just in the CBS projections, but he's 77% rostered. Would you make that swap in a league with a corner infielder, let's say? I think he's having a pretty strong May himself. I thought he was, and then I saw last two weeks, the stats weren't looking too good for him.

him recently. Maybe he's cooled off again. Yeah. So he is a, he's batting over 300 in May with four home runs. Okay. That's pretty solid. At least entering today's game.

So you could argue, he doesn't have a single walk this month though. That's, that's weird. Aguilar had 14 walks in April. He has zero in May. That's weird. Anyway,

like that's, I probably would just stick with Aguilar, but they're, you know, if you wanted to swap him out for, Schwindell, I mean, it's kind of six of one, half a dozen of the other for me. All right. So Frank Schwendell, not a must add yet, but we saw him get hot last year. Let's see if he can keep it going here.

A couple other double dongs from Tuesday night. Glaber Torres now up to seven home runs. Mookie Betz is just absolutely on fire. He went three for four, two more homers for him. He's now up to 12 home runs total. And in the month of May, Mookie Betz is betting 345, nine homers with an 1161 OPS. He's just been outstanding. Danny Jansen hit two home runs himself. He's now batting 3-10. He started four of the last six games with Alejandro Kirk sliding over to the

DH roll for the Blue Jays. And Janssen's kind of interesting right now, Scott. He lowered his strikeout rate tremendously this year. It's now below 13%. He's hitting a lot of fly ball, so it seems like making a concerted effort to try and hit for power. 23% rostered. I think this is someone that you can add in 12-team two-catcher leagues, are you interested in doing that with Danny Jansen? Sure, but there's a catcher who's 24% roster, and so one percentage point more than Jansen, who I'm much, much, much, much more interested in adding. Should I name him, or are we going to bring him up later?

Do it. Do it now. William Contreras, brother of Wilson Contreras, has been a very good hitter this year. as a part-time player, a backup, basically, he already has six home runs. His exit velocity is off the charts. He has good plate discipline, at least over the small sample,

he's had good plate discipline. And all of a sudden, the Braves have decided he needs to be an everyday player. They started him in left field on Monday and batted him second. They started him at D.H. Tuesday and batted him second. He got the walk-off hit. And I think he had a couple of hits on Monday, too.

So, like, he's, he is capitalizing on the opportunity so far. And if he, I mean, anytime you have a catcher-eligible player who's playing in those other spots and has a chance to play more often than a true catcher, like that immediately moves him, moves him way up the rankings and fantasy, but William Pintraff might be a good hitter on top of it. I don't think it's a stretch. I mean, given the lack of impact players at the position, I don't think it's a stretch to say he has top five upside. I'm not saying he's a top five catcher yet, but I would not be opposed to adding

him in a one-catcher league, much less a two-catcher league, and he's only 24% rostered, as I said. All right, so potentially in a one-catcher league, let me throw a few names your way. It took me a while to open his stat-cast page, but his, for as much as we can trust the expected stats on statcast,

his ex-BA so far is 319, his ex-slug is 831. That's insane. Yeah. His barrel rate entering Tuesday was 22%. He does put the ball on the ground quite a bit, 48% ground ball rate, but I guess when he's putting it in the air, he's absolutely

crushing the ball in the air. That is William Contreras, widely available, less than 25% rostered. Scott, would you rather have Contreras or M.J. Melendez right now? So I like both a lot. Melendez just hit his third home run on Tuesday, and I think he's done well enough for placing Salvador Perez. Salvador Perez has started taking some hacks, so I think he's not far from returning. But I think Melendez has performed well enough in his absence that the two of them should both continue to play basically every day, splitting time between catcher and DH. So I think you could say Melendis has top five potential at the position too.

So I would, I think I would slightly prefer Contreras. I think he has, I think there's less opportunity for, that was a weird way of phrasing it. I think he is more likely to continue playing every day than even Melendez is, but I have hope that both do.

Okay, last question on the catchers, would you be okay dropping Joey Bart, someone who came in with some expectations? You would drop him for Melendez, yes. William Petraeus, yes. Would you also drop him for Danny Jansen? I'll mention Danny Janssen was three for 17, coming off the IEL before this two homer game,

and obviously his track, record is pretty miserable, though he at one point in time was the exciting young guy that we were all excited about. So, probably unequal footing with Bart. I don't know that I'd be ready to make that swap, but it's like, Bart seems completely disposable at this point. So, whatever, I don't have much faith in Danny Janssen, but I don't have any faith in Joey Bart either. As somebody who has Joey Bart in a 15 team two catcher Roto League, I've been trying to get rid of him. There's just no catchers available. Tanny Jansen is gone.

I almost dropped him for Tucker Barnhart this past week. Is Contreras there? Oh, here's another one. I don't think he is. I don't know his first name, though. He's a 28-year-old rookie Brian Servin. I just saw him in your rankings, Scott, and I said to myself, who is that? I don't know who that is.

27-year-old rookie, sorry. I was making him bolder than he is. Rocky's catcher who got called up recently and seems to be splitting at Bats 50-50 with Elias Diaz, who has been disappointing. And it's a guy who's hit for good power in the minors. He had 16 homers in 73 games at AAA last year, five homers in 23 games there this year.

and obviously benefits from playing at course field. So, yeah, if he played for any other team, I don't know that I'd be that excited about him, but he plays for the one most likely to give him a gentle landing in the majors, and he seems to be getting opportunities. So he's much lower than William Contreras and MJ Melendos in terms of my interest in him, but it doesn't take much.

It doesn't take much for us to get excited about, you know, for a catcher to potentially be useful in fantasy. And for those listening and you're wondering, do people actually play in two catcher leagues? Yeah. Unfortunately, we do. The traditional roto lineup has two starting catchers. So it's tough.

And sometimes you're chasing that position. So that's why we talk about these guys. Jack Peterson is the last one who had a double dong here on Tuesday. He's cooled down quite a bit. He's 46% rostered. Anything there, Scott? Jack Peterson. Cooled down quite a bit.

He was batting 089 in 17 games since he returned to the lineup after missing a little bit of time. And, yeah, brought his numbers basically back to where we expected them to be for Jack Peterson. And I think he's still the same player. Enough power that he's going to have these kinds of games from time to time. but not an everyday player and I don't think reliable enough that most fantasy leagues he'll be of much use.

All right, let's fire up the dropometer for these three starting pitchers. Josiah Gray gives up seven earned runs including three home runs over three innings pitched. The ERA is now up to 5.44. He was going up against the Dodgers which is just an absolute juggernaut all season long but especially right now.

Josiah Gray is still. still 79% roster. Scott, where is he on the dropometer 10? You could drop him in any size league, zero or one. You really want to hold on to this guy. Probably eight. Probably eight.

I mean, he goes out and has another good start. We'll probably be talking them up as a pickup too, because there's a lot of strikeout potential there for Josiah Gray. But yeah, I mean, he just, how many home runs is this lately for him? it's nine in his past four games. And he was having the same problem last year too. Rural.

Yeah, I've mentioned it before. Just his combination of walks and fly balls is just so deadly as not just a fantasy pitcher, a real life pitcher too. It's just, it's a recipe for disaster. And, you know, guys like Justin Verland or Max Scherzer, they made a career of being flyball pitchers, but they don't really walk anybody. And they get a ton of strikeout. So, I mean, obviously, I'm talking about two of the best pitchers that we've seen

ever basically. But yeah, I mean, Josiah Gray. If he wants to, you know, if he's going to pitch this way and allow this many fly balls, he has to find a way to keep the walks down. And he just has not been able to do that so far. Let's talk about Tyler Malley, who was crushed at home. Surprise, the guy just cannot pitch in Cincinnati against the Cubs. He gives up eight runs on nine hits, three walks, over four innings pitched. He still did have 13 swinging strikes. Was coming off three good starts in a row. But I'll point out those were against the pirates twice. And Cleveland, which has cooled down quite a bit as well. So the ERA is up to 6.32. Tyler Malley still 84% rostered. Scott, where is he on the dropometer? 8 as well. I think if there's a starting pitcher who has your attention on the waiver wire,

I would not hesitate to drop either of these two for him. Now, maybe Aaron Ashby, who is set to replace Freddie Peralta and the Brewer's rotation and make his first start in that role on Wednesday. I think that's fair. I'll ask you about one of those most added starting pitchers in just a second, but the last one I wanted

to mention was George Kirby and a mixed bag here because he's up against Oakland. It's a good matchup, but he goes out there, goes five innings, gives up eight hits, four runs, zero walks. You like to see that. Nine strikeouts. You love to see that. But the overall line here is kind of a mixed bag, Scott. He's 75% rostered, three subpar outings in a row. What do you think about George Kirby?

Yeah, and a combined four strikeouts in the previous two starts. And again, you know, the 13 whiffs that Kirby got in this one, 10 were on the fastball. So the slider that got a lot of a lot of hype when he was dominating in the minors.

It just, it's not, it doesn't seem to be translating in the majors. So I am, I have doubts about George Kirby. I'm not totally sold on him being ready to be an impact pitcher in fantasy. Not that I'd be looking to sell him in a dynasty

league or anything. So yeah, drop a meter probably like a five. Maybe four. I'd rather not do it because there is so much upside there and he hasn't been, you know, it's been a mixed bag, as you've said. But at the same time

it, you know, I'm not totally sold on being a fixture for me. He made a pretty big leap, too. He was in AA to start the season. He made five starts there. Completely skipped AAA, jumps up here to the majors. First start was awesome. Next three, not so much there with George Kirby.

Scott, would you- I'll say four? I'll say four. Okay, would you be okay dropping any, all of these for Ronesi Contreras who made his return to the rotation for the pirates and a pretty successful one. Five shutout innings, three hits, two walks.

He had five strikeouts in this. one averaged nearly 97 miles per hour on the fastball. And I love first pitch strikes the 16 of 20 batter's face. That is awesome to see. Would you be okay dropping all of those names for Ronesi Contreras? Roanzi Contreras, excuse me. Yeah, he didn't have walk issues in the miners last year for what it's worth. So I don't know that that's, that's something we have to worry about with him. I think it's mostly just durability and supporting cast Roanzi Contreras. He has the the great three pitch arsenal, big spin rate on the fastball slider and curveball. So I'm pretty excited about him.

I wouldn't drop Kirby for him, but I would be willing to drop Josiah Gray or Tyler Malley for him. Same question with the aforementioned Aaron Ashby. Yeah, I prefer Ashby to Contreras, even. Okay. Again, I wouldn't, when I drop Kirby for him? No, I don't think I dropped Kirby for him, but the other two are fine. All right, let's take a quick break. But first, if you're listening to us on Spotify,

please leave us a five-star rating there. They introduced this six months a year ago, something like that, new rating system over on Spotify. So we really do appreciate it. Drop five stars there, and we will take that break. Be back right after this. The news and notes, Jacob de Grom could begin mound work this weekend and a late June return is possible.

I'm optimistic, Scott, but this all seems a little sudden for, Jacob de Grom right after Max Scherzer gets hurt it's just I don't want to just feel cursed

because it's like a Mets thing but it kind of feels like a Mets thing right now. I don't know why maybe I'm being unfair. I don't know

that it's a Mets thing specifically. It just seems like they try to rush guys back from injuries at times I don't know. Yeah.

I would say that just because of the nature of the injury, the possibility of a setback seems pretty high. So I would

I wouldn't count your chickens before the hatch here. But it is an exciting report that DeGrom could be back before the, you know, within a month's time, it sounds like. I saw a video of him throwing on the field as well on Tuesday. So you like to see that. I think it was like between 90 and 100 feet there for Jacob de Grom. I have an update on this Mets Giants game, which is absolutely bonkers right now because the Giants were up huge.

The Mets came all the way back. They scored, I think it was seven runs in eighth. nine unanswered runs for the Mets. They took an 11-8 lead. Jock Peterson just goes triple dong and hits a three-run shot to tie the game in the eighth inning. So that game is absolutely wild right now.

Anything else that happens, we'll keep you updated on that. Fernando Tati's Jr. has yet to be cleared to swing a bat. He underwent another bone scan on Monday on his left wrist, and it did not show the level of healing that the Padres were hoping to see.

So some great news on a former first round pick, some not so great news on another former first round pick. Luis Robert was placed on the COVID IL Tuesday and will likely miss the rest of the week. He's dealing with mild symptoms there. A Rollis Chapman was officially placed on the IL with left Achilles tendonitis. Clay Holmes is 74% rostered.

Could be out there in some shallower leagues. Scott, do you think Holmes should be closer to 100% rostered? To the extent you could say that about a reliever, yeah. I look he's been better than a role as Chapman this year the fact that they're not totally committing

to putting Chapman on the IEL yet though it sounds pretty likely leads me to believe it's going to be a short-term absence but it's also the kind of they did put them on the IL scan oh they officially happen okay

leads me to believe it's going to be a short-term absence but it's also the kind of injury that It has a really unclear timetable, tendinitis, you know, in the Achilles. So, yeah, I mean, Holmes, Holmes already has four saves just filling in for Chabin. He is an ERA below one this year, I think, during his something close to 50 innings with the Yankees now, and his ERA is in the low ones. So he should be a really good closer for however long he has it, which,

maybe it'll be longer than just a couple weeks. Yeah. And Chapman has just kind of been shaky all season. So if Clayholm steps in and he just lights out like he has been, maybe he just sticks with the job rest of season. Maybe. I don't think we can rule it out, but like a role this Chapman is historic closer,

like historically dominant closer. He's been doing it for a decade. It's true. But he's in the final year of his contract. I don't know how invested the end. Yankees are in him anymore at this point. So there was already talked that they were going to demote him even before this injury on the tabloids here in New York, Scott. Oh, really?

Yeah. No, they'd never jump the gun. No, they would never. I would be surprised if Holmes just replaced him outright. But I don't think it's impossible. All right. Let's stick with the Yankees. John Carlos Stanton left Tuesday's game with right calf tightness, which is just the last thing you want to see with someone like Stanton.

Eloy Jimenez could begin a rehab assignment within the next week. He's been on the IL for the past month with a torn right hamstring. Lance Lynn through live batting practice Tuesday. He's eligible to return June 6th, but his return will likely come later in June. Chris Bryant has now missed two straight with that back injury and the expectation is that he will once again land on the IL. Salvador Perez did some cage work on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction. He's on the IL with a left thumb sprain. Josh Donaldson is still battling flu-like symptoms,

but he has tested negative for COVID. Michael Kopeck won't start this week as the White Sox looked to give him some extra rest. And this is really frustrating, Scott, because we didn't get any indication beforehand and people's lineups probably locked, and now they got Kopec in there, and he's not going to start.

It's just a frustrating situation all around. Yeah, I was worried about that with only five games on the schedule, but I figured there was, enough rest built in there that they'd want to just have Kopeck start. So the one league where I have him, I started him. And it's a point, it's a head-to-head league. So that makes it even worse.

But yeah, not much you can do about it now. Taylor Ward has missed three straight with that shoulder injury. He suffered after crashing into the outfield wall on Friday. His MRI came back clean, though he hasn't been cleared to throw and cannot yet play the field. Hunter Renfro was placed on the aisle with a strained right hamstring. Tyrone Taylor will likely step into more playing time. I believe he hit a three-run Homer on Tuesday night. He is just 2% rostered.

Scott, any interest in Tyrone Taylor in deeper leagues? Yeah, deeper leagues, those like 15-teen-5 outfielder leagues, there's some amount of power and speed there that may not play as well in our current environment, but how often are usable outfielers emerging in those formats? I can tell you, not vary. Tyrone Taylor was batting cleanup on Tuesday, so they're just throwing them right into the fire there.

Haziz Lozardo has yet to start a throwing program. He's on the IL with that strained left forearm. Eddie Rosario, who underwent eye surgery in April, has yet to regain complete sight in his right eye, which has prevented him from taking part in baseball activities. Daniel Vogelbach was placed on the IL with a strained left hamstring, and as a result, not a big name prospect or anything,

but he is a prospect. Pirates outfielder Cal Mitchell was promoted on Tuesday. He was batting 306 with five homers and six deals in 34 AAA games this season. He's a former second round pick. Other minor league numbers are quite mediocre. Scott, anything here with Cal Mitchell? Maybe.

But I'm not, you know, it's not a rush out and add him situation. It's not Alec Thomas. It's a lower end prospect than that. So we'll see how it goes. Yeah. I'll tell you what, 15 Team 5 out of the leagues, you probably got Cal Mitchell on your radar. DJ LaMahue was scratched Tuesday due to left wrist discomfort.

Jonathan India is approximately 10 to 14 days away from heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. He is on the aisle with a right hamstring injury. Let's make some waiver decisions, Scott. Well, you already answered some of these because I had the catchers on here. If you need a middle infielder, which two of these do you like more? Luis Arise with four straight multi-hit games. He's now batting three.

354. Tommy Lestella has come back for the Giants and he's playing pretty well. Two hits on Tuesday. He hit his second home run, three RBI. I guess there's a chance he can add more because this game is crazy. He is batting over 300 so far. Who do you like more, Scott? Arise or Tommy Lestella as a middle infielder? I like Arise more. He has, in addition to being maybe one of the safest bets for a 300 batting average and all the baseball. ball, he's also walking a lot more this year. So it's on base percentage. It's just off the charts. Neither one of them is going to play much against lefties. But I think Arise, he's a safer bet to be of some value when he does play.

All right. Well, let's talk about a bunch of pitchers. There was a lot of interesting pitcher performances on Tuesday. And these are, I would call all of these fringe starting pitchers, and they were pretty good. Sunny Gray posted his first double-digit strikeout effort since April of last season. He goes seven shutout, 10 strikeouts to just one walk. He had 13 swinging strikes.

The ERA is now down to 2.60 for Sunny Gray. Noah Cindergarde with a great bounce back effort against the Rangers, eight innings, one run, five strikeouts to zero walks. We know the strikeouts have been down this year, but the control has been really good for Cindergarde, and he's getting a lot of ground balls, a 50% ground ball rate for Noah Cindergarde. The last one here, Marcus Stroman, solid start.

five innings, two runs, eight strikeouts, but has now allowed two earn runs or fewer in four straight games. And the X-FIP is 3.16 for Stroman, much lower than his actual ERA. Scott, what do you have here on Sunny Gray, Noah Cinderguard, Marcus Stroman? So Sunny Gray might be,

you know, he's had so many ups and downs in his career. This might be the good version of Sunny Gray that we're seeing this year. We need more information, obviously. this was only his second start that's even five innings or more he's needed some time to stretch out but the ground ball rate is good

as it often is for him K for 9 is good swinging strike rate is down for where we used to see in it but look he's getting strikeouts anyway and the ERA estimators all look good for him is ex-fip I believe is in the two 90s So more information is needed, but if Sunny Gray is available in your league, this start might be the reason to change that. I'm skeptical of Cindergarde still.

His ex-FIP is 380, his XERA is over 4. So the quality of contact is not very good, and he's allowing a lot more contact than we've ever seen him allow. So I'm not really sure how he's managed to pull this off so far. I actually dropped him last week in the podcast league. The 12th team had to head points won, which kind of regret now. Dropped him instead of Cory Kluber. I'd rather have Zendigar than Kluber.

But I do think he remains a cell high, remains somebody who, you know, his last start was pretty bad. And I thought maybe he was beginning to fall off. But then he bounced back with this start. still, I'm skeptical. Who would you rather have between the two, Sunny Gray or Noah Cindergarde? Sunny Gray. I think so too.

Let's move on to pitcher studs who were in action on Tuesday. Walker Bueller post his third quality start of the season. He gave up three runs over six innings. Only had three strikeouts. The ERA is 2.91 for Walker Bueller. Shane McClanahan. What's that got? Here comes the money.

Here we go. Money talk. There comes the money. Six shutout innings, nine more strikeouts for Shane O. Mac, 14 swinging strikes. He now has seven plus strikeouts in eight of nine starts, lowers the ERA to 2.06. Max Fried posted his sixth quality start of the season. Kevin Gosman, ho-hum, just another quality, another scoreless outing, rather, where he has eight

strikeouts, 23 swinging strikes. He's awesome. Corbyn Burns, his seventh quality start of the season, six endings, one run, five strikeouts. anything you'd like to add on Bueller, McClanhan, Fried, Gawzman, Burns. No, well, okay, let's talk about Walker Bueller a little bit because his strikeout numbers have been disappointing to say the least,

7.2K per 9 now after these three strikeouts in six innings. And this was only his third quality start. There was a complete game shutout in there. And, you know, the ERA is fine, but there have been a lot of like five and nine. two-thirds innings, five innings, and then the strikeout issue. Two potential red flags there.

I will note, however, that for the lack of strikeouts, he did enter Tuesday's game with a career best swinging strike rate, and I trust that to lead to strikeouts, more strikeouts if it continues. So I don't know that there's... I wanted to say I'm worried about Walker Bueller. I mean, he was already for relative to other high-end pitchers, a kind of a liability in the strikeouts department. He's become even more so so far.

But he's always been that guy. He's often been that guy where I've looked at what he was doing and thought, okay, something's wrong here. He's about to fall apart. And then it doesn't happen. He just gets better. I'm not in a place to doubt him anymore, I don't think, especially because I got that swinging strike rate that I can cling to. I think he'll probably be okay.

All right. I know that I am the Shane McClanahan advocate here on this podcast, but, Scott, can't we make the argument that he should be ranked as a top 10 or top 12 starting pitcher at this point? Not that he's far off. Yeah, you can make the argument. I think the guys that picture list have done that, at least Nick Pollock has. I'm not ready to put him there because I don't know that he's going to be able to sustain this workload all season

and obviously all the top 10 guys don't have any workload questions. Maybe Corbin Burns does, but not to the extent McClanahan does. So, yeah, I mean, just in terms of ratios and stuff, I think McLanahan is in the mix. He's been among the exciting sophomore pitchers, a group that included like Alec Manoa and Trevor Rogers was one we were running,

ranking in that same range of the start of the year. McClanahan's clearly been the best. And Rogers has clearly been the worst. Yeah. Shout out to Alec Manoa, by the way. I know he's kind of in that mix, but he's absolutely been fantastic this year as well. Not, you know, as good ratio strikeout wise as McClanahan,

but, man, he is right there. He's a tough. Yeah, I mean, really the only miss has been Rogers. True. Yeah. Which was the one. Remember, we each had the one we were skeptical of. Rogers was my pick.

That's true. Yeah. He's going to point that out. As somebody who has him in the Scott White Dynasty League, I would be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried about Trevor Rogers at this point. But we'll see where it goes from here. These four pitchers had quite literally quality starts. That's it.

These are quality outings from these four. Jordan Montgomery turns in his third of the season, six innings, two runs, five strikeouts. It's very weird. He's got a 3.30 ERA pitches for the Yankees. He doesn't have a single win to show four. for it for Jordan Montgomery this season. Kyle Gibson, another solid start.

I lied. He did not have a quality start. He only went five innings, but put him in this mix anyway because I wasn't paying attention. Five innings, two runs, eight strikeouts for him. 15 swinging strikes, though. You like that for Kyle Gibson. Nick Povetta, four quality starts in a row. This one was at the White Sox. And then Framber Valdez makes it three,

seven inning quality starts in a row for him. His first start without a walk this season. Framber Valdez, Nick Povetta, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Montgomery. Anything you'd like to add on this quartet? I forgot to see if Framber Valdez had the demon sinker again. Oh yeah, peaking at 97, the demon sinker was back. That's fun.

Yeah, I mean, Jordan Montgomery, the reason he doesn't have a win for the Yankees beyond just bad luck. I mean, I'm sure there's some bad luck in there. But this was technically just his third quality start, despite that three-third. to ERA. He just, he doesn't go six settings that often. And the same has been true for Kyle Gibson this year. Povetta,

Povetta had in that complete game gem against the Astros last time, Paveta had 19 swinging strikes. More typical this time against the White Sox five swinging strikes. And I think he's

I think he's a little better than Fringy. Like I, you picked him up for two starts this week. I don't know that he's going to be an automatic drop after that, but he's, I don't think he has an especially high-end outcome either.

All right, fair enough. That is Nick Pavetta. Anything else I wanted to add on these four? No, I did see on the Yankees broadcast, the bullpen has blown three wins for Jordan Montgomery, so that's the most in the majors, and obviously that contributes to him not having a win to this point as well. Some hitting leftovers from Tuesday.

Two more extra base hits for Jose Ramirez. the guy can't steal bases because all he does is get extra base hits. He smacked his 11th home run. He added a double. Nelson Cruz is coming around his last 15 games. He's batting 3.39 with two home runs, 11 RBI. Caber Ruiz, two more hits for him. He's having a strong May. Just doesn't have much power to show for it. 333 batting average in the month of May. One homer, six doubles. Two steals. Kind of a nice surprise there for Caber Ruiz. Scott, it's really weird how this happens.

We talk about a player or players that we're worried about. And then it seems like the very next day, something happens with those players. So, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes out and hits a home run. We talked about him yesterday. First since, what, May 5th? Yes. Matt O'Shenko DeMio. Matt Olson goes out, hits his fifth home run of the season.

And then Alston Riley, two hits. Ozzy Albi's three hits. So is there any hitters that you want to talk about, Scott, that are struggling on your teams? maybe we can get going here. I mean, we were pretty confident in Vladimir Gurrell bouncing bat. Oh, on my teams? Yeah.

Yeah, there are a lot of players. I mean... You have any Marcus Semyon out there? Maybe we should... I do have one Marcus Semyon. That's the first name that came to Mike's. He's just been useless. And look, he was a bust pick for all of us coming into the year, so...

I guess I can be happy about that. But I do have that one share of him that I just... rather him be performing well. Yeah, Marcus Simeon is one. Gosh, so many players are underachieving. Kyle Swarber is an interesting case because he's batting under 200, but if you look at his season-long line,

everything else is great. He's got 10 homers, he's got a couple of steals, the runs, the RBI. They're all there for Swarber. Just a batting average. I mean, relative to the league as a whole, I don't know the Twerper's struggling that much. Yeah, that's fair.

Pretty high in the outfield rankings. performance to date. Brian Reynolds. Brian Reynolds is a guy I'm pretty heavily invested in. Yeah, that's a rough one. Can stand for him to turn things around. Not super confident he will,

but not as worried as I am about Simeon either. All right. So if you guys are listening, Marcus Semyon, Brian Reynolds. Come on, man. We have some faith. Let's get it back on track. Julio Rodriguez, went one for three with his fifth home run.

He is now up to 275 with the batting average. Those five homers, 12 steals. Scott, we will not reveal any of your first two rounds. We're going to do a podcast that will come out this weekend. We'll talk about it then. But was Julio Rodriguez in consideration? I've just got to ask for the top two rounds. You're giving me a crazy look. Scott, he's been awesome. He's been awesome. I mean, yes, he's had a good month. His ex-slug for the years below 400 still. who cares about statcasts right

no I mean look I think he's trending the right direction I think he's a must start outfielder I think I just moved him into my top 30 at the position maybe top 25 even so yeah I'm pretty happy with the way things are going for Julio Rodriguez but I'm not ready to call him the top 24 player now no no fair not not even in consideration for that all right the call to the bullpen

some bullpen updates for the Pirates. Chris Stratton entered in the eighth inning with runners on first and third in a one-run game. He gave up game-tying hit. David Bednar gave up an unearned run in extra innings and he took the loss. For Tampa Bay, Ryan Thompson pitched in the ninth inning of a four-run game

and that's now the second game in a row where Thompson has pitched in the ninth. He was in for the save on Sunday. So, Scott, what do you think? Because Ryan Thompson doesn't have numbers as good as Jason Adam or Brooks Raley. It's kind of like this weird sidearm pitcher I was watching that game.

Do you think he's maybe the first up for saves here? I don't think anybody is. Yeah, me, Kittridge out of there now. It's fair. The next save could go to anybody, and the next save after that could go to anybody else. All right. Let's see, what else do we have?

For the Twins, Yohan Duran gave up a hit but picked up his fourth save. Emilio Pagan, pitch two. two innings last night for the twins? I mean, that's, Duran's got the last two saves for the twins. And Pagan was rested for that first save. You mentioned he pitched two innings on Monday,

so he probably wasn't available Tuesday. But he was available on Sunday, at least as far as I can tell, looking at the game log. So, I don't know. Maybe, I mean, certainly Yohan Duran is the more talented of the two. He may be the more rosterable of the two. this point too. I would say in any type of categories league where saves are one of the

categories, both of Pagan and Tehran need to be rostered. And until we see something different, I'm just going to keep trusting Scott that if nothing else, this is a 50-50 split and maybe even slightly in favor of Emilio Paghan for now. Yeah. Of course it can change. That's the safe bet, but the cream rises to the top, Frank. Oh, the may be rising. The cream. The cream. You ever seen the promo, Scott, of Macho Man Randy Savage? You know I haven't. Oh, I will send it to you as soon as this podcast ends because

Macho Man, spoiler alert, one of my favorite wrestlers of all time, and he just has this awesome promo where he's carrying around like the little creamers that you put in your coffee, and he's just like putting them on people's head, and he's like, the cream rises to the top. It's awesome.

Pretty good minor league player, too. Actually, he wasn't. That's probably why I went to wrestling. For the Braves. Kenley Jansen was in for the save in a one-run game. Bryce Harper hits a two-run homer off of him, and then the Phillies defense happened in the bottom of the ninth. It was brutal. But Kenley Jansen winds up with the win,

but he did blow the save in this game. A few others, Danny Jimenez picked up his ninth save. Rice-Leglacliaclius got his 11th. Mark Malanson got his 10th. And Devin Williams, filling in for Josh Hader, picked up his third save of the season. To stream or not to stream, let's start with Wednesday.

Zach Thompson versus the Rockies, Jake Junis versus the Mets, Aaron Ashby at the Padres, Christian Javier versus Cleveland, Reed Detmer's versus the Rangers, and Glenn Otto at the Angels. Javier versus Cleveland is my first start coming up, or first choice coming off a brilliant start.

And I'd also be fine with Aaron Ashby at San Diego. Had some struggles earlier this season with control, with velocity, but his last five innings have been perfect with nine strikeouts and the velocities, back. So hopefully this transition to the rotation, he'll be able to give you five strong and never go back to the bullpen again. All right. Let's take a look at Thursday. Only three for now. MLB.com still has a bunch of TBDs. Justin Steele at the Reds, Daniel Lynch at the Twins, Michael Walker at the White Sox.

Well, none of those, no. Well, Steele might be okay. Steele's coming off two good strikeout efforts and obviously that's a good matchup. I don't I don't think there's much to see there, like as a long-term pickup. But if you want to stream the guy, then it might go, okay, let me see if I can find any other names Thursday. Hunter Green against the Cubs. He's 72% rostered, but yeah, if he's out there, I don't mind that match. Yeah, I think that's, you know, if he's 72% rostered on our side, that means he's like 30% rostered on Yahoo. That's fair.

Let's see Who else? Nobody who's that available or that interesting Martín Perez against the athletics Though I know he got picked up in a lot of our leagues For the two-star week Yeah But I would say I prefer him even to Hunter Green

Oh, righty You know Scott our most efficient podcast of the year Look at that we're 55 minutes in I mentioned I have some fantasy justice questions last week so let's see if we could at least answer one of those here. See what we could do. All right, this one's from Matthew. In response to the rising cases of COVID,

Blank and I decided to reinstate the two COVID-IL spots we had in 2020 and 2021. We now have two IL spots for any injury or illness and two COVID-only IL spots. The two COVID-related absence effective immediately. I'm not really against it, as a concept, but changing the rules mid-season seems like a tough thing to do. This is not the first thing the commissioners have done with little input from the league, but this is the first time

in season. Do we need to grow some thicker skin, or should I have a real beef with this? I don't think you should have a real beef with this. This is, I think sometimes we can get a little too stuck on that can't change anything mid-season. Like if things are clearly going a wrong direction, that is hurting the experience for everybody. And it's a change that's, particularly if it's a change that's not going to really advantage anybody. I mean, I guess it's possible somebody has four guys on dealing with COVID already, so I guess it'll unfairly advantage him.

But it's not like you drafted certain players or picked up certain players thinking they'd be able to avoid COVID. So I think it's fine. I don't think you should blow a gasket over this personally. I think it's okay that they did this. I think it's going to improve the experience for everybody. I mean, frankly, I think it's a little crazy that they're designating COVID-specific IL spots because that sounds like a chore to police if you're a commissioner.

I would just make them extra IL spots. But I would never complain about extra IL spots. Like, I think more is always a more enjoyable way to play than less. Yeah. I agree. I mean, I think if it was something more drastic in season, and you know, you probably want to put it up for vote at least or talk to your league mates and see what's going on there.

But this is really not that serious. And it sounds like something that would help everybody across the board. So I'm in favor of it. And I don't think you should worry too much about it, Matthew. This one's from Apple Podcast Review. and it's from Rich, Dear Chase, Ryan, and Jimmy. Oh, this is the heart of the Phillies lineup

back when they won the World Series in 2008. That sounds right. Because they won the year before they faced the Yankees, right? And that was 09. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins. Right. All right, so here's the question. As commissioned two leagues,

I avoided disaster before both drafts by replacing managers that dropped a week before draft day. However, in past years, I have had to replace managers that either would not pay the fee or just decided to stop operating their team. I usually get tipped off by another team that someone is not changing their lineup for weeks at a time. Funny enough, it always seems to be after the whistleblower plays that team. Hmm. Anyway, wanted to know what you think is the best way to address this issue.

I usually try to give the manager a pep talk, but most times, it just does not work. I've had emergency replacements, but they have never worked because the replacement manager is not invested. Is there a solution? Should I operate the team as commish? Let the team sink as is.

In other leagues, when short a team, we've taken the league average as a weekly opponent to one team. Should I impose that mid-season? Definitely do not like that last rule. And yeah, this is tough, Scott. I mean, I think the answer for me

is just try to find people who are more invested, but I get it. Like not everyone loves fantasy baseball the way that we love fantasy baseball. So it's kind of tough. Yeah, I don't think I know. No, never mind.

I don't need to go there. But I would say that, yes, if you try replacing a manager in season, particularly if there's no dynasty keeper element, there's just no way for that person to get invested in the team. And it's, It's probably more trouble than it's worth.

I don't think anybody should ever be handed of truly free victory. So as a commissioner, you have to make sure the lineup is legal. But beyond that, I don't think it's appropriate for you to intervene in the roster. So it's going to be a bad team, and they're going to lose a lot.

But it won't be a free win. And you just try to pick somebody better next year. Yeah. I mean, if you can, and find a replacement in season gray. But like I said, I don't think you're going to have much success with that. And it sounds like you've already experienced that. Sounds like a perfect time to plug our fantasy baseball today Facebook groups got

because there's people mostly before the season starts looking for leagues, competitive leagues to join. So if you're having issues, in all honesty, I would say, you know, drop a post in there and, you know, see if anyone wants to join the league or, you know, maybe there's more competitive people there who want to help you out. And with that, we'll end the podcast and we'll end the night of baseball as the New York Mets took a one-run lead going into the ninth inning. And what happened?

Edwin Diaz gives up two runs and they take the loss. They lose 13 to 12. Just an absolutely crazy game there. If you have any other not fantasy-related questions, but just things going on in your league that you need to ask us about, you can send those questions in Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. Put fantasy justice or just justice in the, subject title and we'll get to those on a future podcast. For Scott, I am Frank, thank you all

for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.