Fantasy Baseball Today - Player Profile: Does Carlos Carrasco Have Anything Left? (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:03 Let's get to another player profile this time. Carlos Carrasco on fantasy baseball today in five. Welcome into FBT and 5. Today is Saturday, March 4th. I am Frank Stamphill, joined by Scott White, and we got a request for Carlos Carrasco via Terrence. So let's take a look at Carasco from last year. Scott, 3.97 ERA, 1.33 whip.

Starting point is 00:00:26 Right at a strikeout per inning. His most innings since 2018, he threw 152. The good, obviously the strikeout rate. Swinging strikes, 12.9% managed to stay somewhat healthy. The bad, the whip. 1.33. He was very hitable. 337 babbip against, allowed a good amount of hard contact, 32nd percentile, and his fastball was crushed last year.

Starting point is 00:00:50 331, batting average against with a 549 slug. Scott, what are you expecting from Carlos Carrasco? And do you have any interest as a very late round sleeper? Well, I loved Carlos Carrasco going into last year. I thought he was a very obvious bounceback candidate. He had had some health issues in 2021, which led to his awful numbers, same as in 2019. But in between, I mean, 2020 was a healthy year for him, and he looked pretty dominant, 291 ERA, 10.9K per 9. and more like the Carlos Carrasco we've seen for most of the last decade.

Starting point is 00:01:33 So he managed to stay more or less healthy all season, made 29 starts and won 15 games for a very good Mets team. But nothing else was that great. And in particular, the 1.33 whip stands out as just being untenable in the modern game. maybe that'll change with the infield shifts going away singles are expected to increase a certain amount but I still don't think we're going to see a lot of pitchers with the ERA over 1-3 that we consider worth rostering in fantasy

Starting point is 00:02:09 you mean whip, whip over 1-3 oh whip yeah a whip above 1-3 that we consider worth rostering in fantasy I look at the individual components for Carrasco and I still see a lot to like the swinging strike rate just broadly speaking is good. The walk rate is good. You look at measures like X-FIP and FIP.

Starting point is 00:02:33 ERA estimators, they're mainly looking at walk-rate, strike rate, home-run rate, and they still suggest Carlos Carrasco's pretty good. 345-FIP, 353-FIP versus the 397 ERA he actually delivered. But then you look at XERA, which is mostly measuring quality of contact, It's accounting for quality of contact in a way those others aren't. And that's four away. So that may be the more accurate reflection of what's going on for Carrasco. He does allow hard contact.

Starting point is 00:03:06 He's always allowed a good amount of hard contact. His fastball is not a particularly effective pitch. It's just needed to bring out the rest of his arsenal. But he's allowing even harder contact now than he's. used to. I think his stuff is diminished just enough that it's put him, it's, he's reached a breaking point where he's just too hitable to be somebody that we can count on for ratios, help in fantasy. Might still give you volume, might still give you wins. But I don't really see him bouncing back at age 36 this year to, to the Carlos Carrasco. We had grown accustomed.

Starting point is 00:03:53 to in like 2018 and previously. Yep, the age is getting up there, Scott, as you mentioned. It is a contract year for what it's worth. You know, maybe looking to get paid for another, you know, short-term contract after this year. If he can put a good season together. But Carlos Carrasco, the ADP, this is also kind of a problem, Scott,

Starting point is 00:04:11 because he's going at 2.92. It's very late in drafts, but there's other very interesting starting pitchers going around there. So Carasco versus Ross Stripling, Carrasco versus Trevor Rogers, Carrasco versus Tyler Malley, I have somewhat interest in Carasco, but I can't take him over any of those guys personally.

Starting point is 00:04:29 Yeah, I agree. It's a range of the draft where you should already have wins pretty well accounted for. If you're chasing at that point, maybe that's the justification for taking Carasco, but it's a real problem. And, you know, those upside targets, if they make good on their upside,

Starting point is 00:04:48 they're likely to provide you double-digit wins as well. And I agree. I'd rather shoot for, like, I don't, I think as, maybe Carasco delivers a similar stat line to last year. I think that's a reasonable outcome. But I think a reasonable outcome, too, is he just collapses. As an area over five, we never hear from him again. While Trevor Rogers, for instance, could bounce back to 2021 numbers and be like a number three starter for you in fantasy. So that, for the cost of a relatively late pick,

Starting point is 00:05:27 I'm pretty much always going to shoot for the upside. And if it doesn't work out, I can find boring types on the Wafer Wire, usually. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, the Odyssey app, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball's Day and Five, and we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.

Starting point is 00:05:50 Thank you.

Fantasy Baseball Today - Player Profile: Does Carlos Carrasco Have Anything Left? (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 Podcast)

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