Fantasy Baseball Today - Player Profiles: Freddy Peralta & Marco Luciano (Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast)

Episode Date: February 11, 2023

Download and follow Fantasy Baseball Today in 5! You can find FBT in 5 on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Freddy Peralta has been great over the past two seasons... when he pitches. How concerned should you be about his shoulder? Is he worth his draft cost? Marco Luciano has lost some of his luster as a prospect. Should you look to buy low? Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've got two player profiles, one for redraft and one for Dynasty. Up next on Fantasy Baseball today in five. Welcome into FBT and 5. Today is Friday, February 10th. I am, for example, joined by Chris the Welsh. Trying something new here on FBT and 5. We've got some player profiles for polarizing players. And let's start with Freddie Peralta,

starting pitcher with the Milwaukee Brewers, an ADP of 144.5 as the 40th starting pitcher off the board. Fastball Freddy, no more. He throws this slider, this curveball, and he's been awesome in the past couple of years. The problem, Welsh, is the shoulder injury. Last year, Peralta was limited to just 78 innings, yet the underlying skills are still really good.

What do we do with Freddie Peralta? He's impossible. I told you this before. I was like, let's pick any other name. Let's talk about any other player besides Freddie Peralta because he's impossible. I was also telling you this. I was putting together some bust thing,

and I want to put him on there. And then I go and I look and you're just, you're overwhelmed. As far as like given up, top 8% of the league and expected batting average, which is good. Top 8% expected slugging, really good. Top 10% ex-Woba. These are great ways he's maintaining. His expected ERA was also top 10% in the league. And he gave up some of the least hard hit percentage balls overall in the league, except his health.

I don't know how to quantify him right now because, You also saw a decrease, though. This is something I'm worried about. And all those great peripherals, whiff percentage across his pitches have gone down. You said, yes, he's added a slider and curveball. In 2021, he had a 30% whiff rate on his fastball, 43% on his slider, and a 27% on his curveball.

Well, this past year, all of them but the curveball went down. He lost 6% whiff on the fastball. He lost 13% on the slider. And the curveball kind of became his only out to pitch. Was that due to health? Was that due to the end? This guy has all the peripherals to be great, but the range he's going in with the health concerns and maybe some of the whiff concerns is difficult.

You and I said this off air, like he's going around Dustin May. He's going around Jeffrey Springs. Those are two players I want. Jeffrey Springs is one of my big breakouts this year, even more than last year. I just don't think I want to dive in and take the risk on a really big injury prone player who also saw kind of a decrease in these new added pitches, even though he is phenomenal as far as a strikeout pitcher goes and might still have some big flashes. I find him really, really difficult and probably just a straight pass in fantasy this year for me. Yeah, it was a strained right

lat in May for Freddie Peralta, and then it was shoulder fatigue and inflammation in September. And the shoulder is something he's been on the IL two previous times in 2019 and 2021. So this is a recurring injury for Freddie Peralta. And everything you said, Welsh, is backed up in the data. The strikeout rate went from 33.6% in 2021, 27% overall in 22, and you see that in the decline in swinging strike rate as well. I think there's a lot of talent. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets back on track, but this price tag right now,

I'd rather wait and take someone, like you said, Dustin May, Jeffrey Springs, even Hazus Lazardo, who has his own injury concerns, but I do like the stuff for Lizardo quite a bit as well. Let's shift over to a prospect in Dynasty League, Welsh, another polarizing player. Marco Luciano with the San Francisco Giants, a shortstop prospect once regarded as one of the top prospects in the game, and it feels like he's lost some of his luster, limited to just 65 games last year. He hit 269 with 11 home runs and an 817

OPS. The production has just been kind of mediocre since crushing rookie ball back in 2019. Welsh, buy low or no thanks bro, on Marco Luciano. I don't want to hedge both bets. I will tell you my gut says like he's so low, it might be an interesting buy, but I think I'm going to pass. Interestingly enough, I go back and I think about to rookie ball that year.

And he was one of the youngest. He's like a 17 year old. But that same year, Corvin Carroll, C.J. Abrams, were both in the same level playing. Those guys are major leaguers now. One of them has exhausted their prospect eligibility. The other might be a rookie of year candidate.

And Marco Luciano has not played past a ball. High A. That's as far as he's gone. A lot of injuries, a lot of contact issues. I know he'll probably get pressed a little bit more this year. He's not quite the Giants prototypical. Like they're really high on base guys and that's kind of fallen a little bit. I will say he's decreased his strikeout percentage to a pretty good degree last year in,

you know, a handful of games he played at high A. He had a 22% strikeout rate, which is really good because he does have massive raw power, but he's not stealing bases. He did not steal a base in 2022. also probably due to injuries. I think this is somebody that maybe still has some name value that I think is going to be a minimalist as far as fantasy production. And I'm probably a pass,

and it makes me sad because he really does have some special power. Maybe this will be a really big late bloomer. But at this point, I think you are dicey about three good categories. So if you could find someone in your Dynasty League that still values the name Marco Luciano, maybe you try and ship him off to that manager and see what you can get in return. For more extensive fantasy baseball coverage, listen to the fantasy Baseball Today podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the Odyssey app, or anywhere else podcasts are found. Thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball today in five, and we'll be back again next week.

Bye-bye.