Fantasy Baseball Today - Players That Scare Us; ADP on Other Sites (03/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 13, 2020

First, "To Draft or Not to Draft (5:30)?" We discuss what we're doing with our Fantasy drafts and what you could do right now. Also, which players are gaining value due to the postponement of the seas...on (9:30)? And do suspended players lose value? ... We talk briefly about drafting in 14-team leagues (14:00). Does Scott's rule about SPs still apply? Then we discuss how a shortened season could change the Fantasy outlooks for SPs with innings limits (22:00) ... Players that scare us (28:31)! Whether it's injury, uncertain performance or just a spooky name (Spooky Betts?), which players are we a little nervous about drafting? Is Aaron Judge destined to be on the IL? Is Trevor Bauer set up for failure in CIN? Then we go over some ADP trends we're seeing on ESPN and Yahoo to figure out where you can find value (42:55) ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:02 Everybody, welcome to the show. Happy Friday. Friday the 13th. Can you say happy Friday on Friday the 13th? I just did. Scariest players in fantasy baseball. We'll be talking about them. Ooh.
Starting point is 00:00:42 And we welcome me in. We'll be reading your emails at Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. Today, should you draft? Should you wait? Which players are gaining and losing value right now? And man, it's just, it's just a weird day in America. I mean, that's what else is there to say? Chris, Chris, you seem especially thrown off. It just, like, my wife's been home for three days now. We're both working from home full time at this point.
Starting point is 00:01:12 Her building was shut down a couple days ago, and so it just, it has felt like the weekend for a while. And that's just, it's throwing me off. My head's not, my head's not right, right? now, but fantasy baseball podcast will get my head right. And it does feel like the weekend. And the thing for me is I always work from home. So I had said to my cousins today, we were all like talking about the best things to do. I've been doing social distancing before it was cool. And, you know, I'm a trendsetter, I guess.
Starting point is 00:01:46 But it is still just different for me because there are no stories to read. There are no baseball headlines, really. I mean, other than the cancellation, there's no sports. It's just, it's really strange. Scott, how are you holding up? Uh, I don't know. I know, I know. It's tough.
Starting point is 00:02:07 I don't know. It's, uh, preparing for what you don't know to expect. I mean, I, I finally grasped the concept, uh, just yesterday of, uh, why there's a necessity to load up on supplies and just, um, imagining what. what the worst case scenario would be like, and how quickly, more importantly, how quickly it can get here. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:37 And, like, this is, you're in your last days to prepare before the possibility of just the, it being a ghost town outside, you know, and, like, he's just being in lockdown mode. So maybe it won't come to that, but obviously you want to be prepared for the worst. So in the meantime,
Starting point is 00:03:00 what better to do than to talk about sports? And I have a feeling if we're going to be podcasting daily, we're going to be talking about a lot of things. Chris had a great idea of doing like a live, live interaction type of show. Chris, I'll let you explain your idea. Yeah, I think what we're going to do is, you know, we'll have to figure out the time and dates,
Starting point is 00:03:20 but I think once a week it might be fun to do some kind of fantasy baseball today live stream that we also record as a podcast. So we'd probably stream it on our, Facebook group. Search for Fantasy Baseball Today on Facebook and join that. Not quite sure that we can do that in a Facebook group. You can do it on a Facebook page, Chris. As I thought, oh, Chris had this great idea and then people were like,
Starting point is 00:03:43 hmm, not sure we could do that. But if we can't do that, we will figure out something else. Yeah, we'll stream it somewhere. We will. So the idea is to do like an Ask Fantasy Baseball Today, anything, your fantasy questions, your questions about why Adam has such terrible taste in music, Scott's favorite foods, whatever you guys want to ask us. I think that's going to be a fun way to kind of break things up during this interim period where we're just kind of-training for content.
Starting point is 00:04:15 Well, we're just going to be kind of spinning the draft prep wheels in perpetuity for the foreseeable future. And, you know, just try to find a way to have fun. You know, we've gotten, you you know, some, you know, a lot of emails over the years from people saying that, you know, our podcast has been like a, a nice way to kind of distract them from, you know, some of the things that they're going through in the real world. And so, you know, if there's anything that we can do to kind of, you know, provide a distraction for people, you know, provide some entertainment, you know, that's what we want to do. Yeah. And Chris and I had a call with my boss and, you know, one of the head honchos in terms of editorial content for CBS yesterday,
Starting point is 00:05:01 and we were talking like, what's our plan going to be? And we just said, you know what? Like people might want to listen to podcasts more than ever now. So we're just going to dominate fantasy football today is going to be perhaps five days next week because next week is actually going to be one of the more interesting sports weeks in a long time when free agency opens and players sign. So we're not going anywhere. and we will be giving you content.
Starting point is 00:05:28 All right. So first question is, to draft or not to draft? And it's a personal decision for everybody. Scott and I talked about in our little five-minute episode yesterday. Chris, I really thought that we were going to suspend the 14-team draft.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Instead, we're continuing it, but we're doing it completely untimed as opposed to three hours in between picks. It usually takes about 10 to 14 days. Now we'll just do it untimed. what would you recommend, Chris, since you didn't get to weigh in on this about teams or leagues wondering
Starting point is 00:05:59 if they should do their draft now? I think if you're doing like a slow draft, I've got three slow drafts currently ongoing and we didn't pause any of them. And in that instance, I think it's okay to just keep going. You know, it is a little bit unfortunate that like in one of my slow drafts,
Starting point is 00:06:18 I missed my pick. I was busy. I'm a busy man. and I'm forgetful. You had lunch. I auto drafted Chris Sale. Sometimes you get hungry. You auto drafted Chris Sale when?
Starting point is 00:06:31 In like the third or fourth round because the projection hadn't been updated. And so at the time it was like, well, I'm going to have to really make up for this. And now the season, you know, if the season starts on May 1st, Chris Sale might be ready. If the season starts on May 1st, yeah. I think if you have a draft scheduled for
Starting point is 00:06:52 this weekend or following week. I think you should probably postpone it. But in the case of an ongoing slow draft, I think you probably just keep going. Because you either, I don't think pausing it would have made sense for the editorial league. I think it would have made more sense to just scrap it and start over at a later date. But, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:12 that would make me so mad if I lost the draft that I'd, I mean, I, even if I lost a draft, I wasn't particularly thought of just, Yeah, the editorial... Pretending like that scenario didn't exist anymore. And after everybody kind of revealed their hand and things played out in a way that we should have some consequences for, you know? I just...
Starting point is 00:07:41 I can't do that. I can't redo what's already done. There's no Matrix Memory Swipe for Scott White. Yeah, I saw the Matrix. You get used to it, everybody. But Chris said something, you know, May 1st. I don't think any of us really believe that it's only going to be a two-week delay. I certainly don't.
Starting point is 00:08:00 I won't speak for everyone. But I don't think there's any chance that it's just going to be a two-week delay for the start of the season. They're going to reevaluate and it's at least two weeks. And I have no idea, zero idea when it's going to happen. But consider that they canceled the college baseball world series and the college softball world series. That stuff's in June. That stuff's in late June. So I know it's different because it's
Starting point is 00:08:23 You know you got like but it's really not that different Because it's like Those don't take place during the academic year I don't understand why they did that But kids have to go home and schools are closing And that's different But to think that in two weeks everything Or even in four weeks
Starting point is 00:08:37 Everything's just going to be back to normal I would not I would not expect this to be just a two week delay But then again I'm not a health official Well It's just I think the next 10 days to two weeks Are going to be
Starting point is 00:08:51 critical in terms of how much this thing spreads and how much how much better an idea we have about how to how to contain it and I think in the most optimistic scenario it is possible if if it's only two weeks they don't necessarily need to do spring training over again I mean starting pitchers might not be going the distance they are at the start it's it seems possible but I agree it is an unlikely scenario. I finally got my head in a place late last night where I was able to adjust the ranking of somebody like Chris Sale. Don't do that yet. Don't do that. I got email of the day. We got to give that email of the day. All right. So first of all, join our
Starting point is 00:09:36 Facebook group. We can keep you posted on things and do some live chats in there and stuff like that. But here is email of the day number one from Nick and Charlestville, Virginia. Assuming that the MLB season won't start until early May at the earliest. Which player's fantasy value should now be upgraded or downgraded? Is Justin Verlander back to the Big Four? How far up did you move James Paxton? What about, and this is a good one because I thought about that, but this second part of the question I hadn't thought about.
Starting point is 00:10:00 On the downside, are suspended players like Paneda and Domingo Armand now less valuable? That's a good question. I think the most likely outcome. Sorry, did I cut you off? No, it's okay. I never do that. I think the most likely outcome is probably we get a shorter season. I think the chances of playing 162 games are pretty slim.
Starting point is 00:10:24 Unless they start in two weeks. Jim Bowden was saying that they feel like they can fit, not that we start in two weeks, but if they only push it back two weeks, they feel like they can fit a full season. Yeah, I mean, they just tack it on to the ends. We're not going to have an all-star game.
Starting point is 00:10:39 I think that seems really unlikely. I think that's happened before where they've announced all-stars and not had a game. And, you know, that would be whatever. But I would think you just start thinking about, like, playing baseball games in, you know, Cleveland in late October, early November. You know, it sounds untenable. So, yeah, in the case of suspended players like Michael Panetta and Dominga Armand,
Starting point is 00:11:11 you know, I think they are likely to serve. a higher percentage of the season. You know, that's speculation, but that's what I would expect. And yeah, I think for John Carlos Stanton, like it seems really likely he'll be ready for whatever opening day is now. Justin Verlander probably the same, maybe even James Paxton. Stanton's not going to get hurt again either. That's the good thing.
Starting point is 00:11:36 Well, he's not going to be playing baseball. Yeah. And Scott, what did you do in your ranking specifically? So the players I felt I had downgraded to the point that I needed to now upgrade. It actually didn't include Stanton. I didn't actually move him down that much in the rankings because I had him pretty low to begin with.
Starting point is 00:11:59 It was Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, Mike Clevenger, James Paxton, and Chris Sale. Those were the big ones for me. And I moved them up quite a bit. I moved them up anticipating A-May for start was obviously just I called it an uninformed and possibly reckless guess on Twitter. But it seemed like a good kind of middle ground guess. And I feel like I just have no concept for ranking them if I don't have some kind of guess going. So that's how I did it. And yeah,
Starting point is 00:12:35 they moved up quite a bit to the point that Clevenger is, I think he's 25th overall again. So he's almost a second. Like I didn't move him all the way up to where I had him before, even though it's likely he'll be ready just because I have to account for the possibility of a setback or whatever. But yeah, those guys definitely gained value. And that would be the biggest case for redoing a draft if you were thinking about it is because those players obviously slid to a point where they're going to be even bigger values
Starting point is 00:13:10 than they might have already been. But I feel like those, I feel like if it's just a handful of players, like at any point you have your draft between that date and the start of the year, things are going to happen to a handful of players that is unanticipated and will change their value. So I don't feel like that's reason enough to turn things upside down.
Starting point is 00:13:37 Two random topics I want to bring up real quick. Number one, I forgot to bring this. up when we talked about to draft or not to draft, but fantasy, I don't know if you guys are in fantasy. I'm sure Chris, you're in fantasy basketball leagues. I was talking to someone yesterday who's the commissioner of a few fantasy basketball leagues, and he said he was just going to refund everybody the money. And I said, well, why don't you just pay all the teams that made the playoffs?
Starting point is 00:13:58 And he said, oh, that's a good idea. So that's what I would recommend. If you're in the playoffs right now, you know, you might be in the first round of the playoffs. I would just pay the teams that either made the playoffs or the teams that are still alive if you're in the semifinals or whatever. And I guess the same with fantasy hockey. So that would be my advice there. And then I wanted to talk about specifically Aaron Judge
Starting point is 00:14:18 because we were doing this 14-team league and I was on the clock yesterday. And I wanted it. So it was the fifth round of a 14-team league. And we could have a fantasy baseball discussion here about Scott's strategy, Scott's pitching strategy, and four of the top. It was 37.
Starting point is 00:14:40 Then it became like 33. Maybe it's 37 again. 33. Maybe it's back. Yeah, maybe it's back to 37 because Otoni. Otani was a guy that I probably could have moved up if, you know, anybody else is thinking about doing this with their personal rankings. I just had, every time we did a draft and I'd see where O'Tani was ranked, they kept telling myself, oh, I need to move him down. And I never did.
Starting point is 00:15:03 So now it's like, oh, it's perfect. Where he is. Well, where do you have Otani ranked? Just outside the top 40, I think. Okay. That's starting pitch. Yeah. So what I was saying was, you know, I want to have a strong pitching staff in this 14 team points league that we do.
Starting point is 00:15:24 I do well in this league basically every year, and I always have good pitching. I do. This league, I know I said the same thing about the Yahoo League yesterday, but not even to this. Like this league, I dominate. I lose in the playoffs because I get unlucky every year. But we kick ass in this league. When we were like, me and Jamie share a team, we were like 24 and O or something like because you play two matchups a week.
Starting point is 00:15:48 I don't remember what it was. But we were the best, like the best. So, no, I'm just kidding. But I went with Moogie Betts fourth. I went with Charlie, with Patrick Corbyn in the second round. I went with Charlie Morton in the third round. I went with Chris Bryant in the fourth round. So I had bets and Bryant as hitters.
Starting point is 00:16:05 Both of them are better in points leagues. I had Morton and Corbin at starting pitcher. Now, round five comes about, and U. Darvish is on the board. And I thought about taking him instead of Chris Bryant. And after U. Darvish, did any pitchers go after Darvish? Let's take a look. Kluber went. So it was either Darvish than Kluber, and then you had like Sunny Gray,
Starting point is 00:16:28 Zach Wheeler, Shamanai. But I thought there was a pretty big drop off after Darvish. And in this league, I don't know if I'm going to get four. top 37, but I got three like top 24, I think, or maybe three top 30, whatever. I really like Darvish. So I was sitting there debating Darvish or Aaron Judge. Obviously, before the news, it would have been an easy call with Darvish, but Jamie wanted me to take Aaron Judge.
Starting point is 00:16:54 He, though, is a little bit different than a guy like Paxton, Clevenger. Clevenger has the earliest timetable. Judge still might need surgery. So that was why I went with Darvish instead of Judge. we don't really have any timeline for him. We have a rough timeline for Stanton. We have one for Paxson. We have one for most players.
Starting point is 00:17:15 I guess we don't really have one for Verlander. But the only player I think that's been mentioned, he might need surgery, is Aaron Judge. So that's why I did not go with him in that time. Aaron Judge and Chris Sale of the ones I named. Those two probably have the murkiest timetable, although Aaron Judge He was supposed to be re-evaluated in two weeks
Starting point is 00:17:40 It was kind of the one week point yesterday And he did talk about how good he was feeling And how he thought he was ahead of schedule He gave a favorable self-assessment Yeah, but he's been doing that I understand He did that in the off-season He didn't say anything and that's why we're in this predicament
Starting point is 00:17:58 But you know the 14-team league thing Is obviously there's still more hitting than pitching, but it's not the situation where you're going to be stacked at every position, even if you go with like four pitchers in your first five picks or something like that. So that's where I wanted to have. Let's have a little fantasy discussion there. And Chris, let's take a look at your team because you just made a pick.
Starting point is 00:18:21 You have Sonny Gray. You have Lucas Gellito and Sunny Gray. You have Bregman and Rendon, who are just like, they could be the two best hitters and points leagues. And you have Jordan Alvarez at Utility. Yeah, so, and you just picked 66th overall in round five. Jordan Alvarez could be third. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:42 So you've got great hitting and you have Sunny Gray and Lucas Gialito. So what, did you change your strategy at all in a 14 team league? And that's just in general, that's not specific to the season being delayed, but just basic draft strategy versus 14 team league, did anything change for you? It's not that much deeper. Like, I'm in some 15 team leagues that, you know, that's. my strategy changes a little bit. And in those leagues, I found I'm more willing, maybe in a deeper league, I found I'm a little
Starting point is 00:19:13 more willing to take a chance on some of the injured guys because I, it doesn't matter if you finish in fifth place. You know, it really doesn't change your outcome. So when I get a chance to maybe go a little earlier on a drunk Carlos Stanton in that kind league, I'll do it just because the upside is so much higher. Although I'm the one taking a chance on John Carlos Stanton, generally among us anyway. So it doesn't change that much for me, I guess. Do Rea-Muto, does Rea-Muto, maybe Sanchez, like the elite catchers, do they become more
Starting point is 00:19:50 valuable, Scott in a 14-team league? No, I don't think so. There's still, it's, I mean, if we're adding Danny Jansen, there's like 16 catchers that I feel like are viable starters. And even if I ended up with a not-so-viable starter at that position with all the attrition and with the low impact the top guys make anyway, I would be more concerned about getting pitchers
Starting point is 00:20:17 than paying up for a catcher. But, you know, obviously somebody like Mitchie Carper is there in round 10-11. That's still something I'm being inclined to do. So your pitcher strategy, though, you know, what would you do in a 14-team league? Do you still want me to get... four of your top 30
Starting point is 00:20:34 whatever. I am doing that regardless of format. I think even in the AL and NL, I may have settled for three in those roto leagues, which are obviously the deepest that,
Starting point is 00:20:46 as deep as anything I play in. I think it may have settled for three, but yeah, that's something I'm kind of doing in all four months. I don't play in a 14-team league. I do play in a couple of 15-team roto leagues.
Starting point is 00:21:00 So in a roto league, obviously the markup isn't quite as intense. at starting pitcher. It's, it's, there's a markup everywhere, but it's not as much in a roto league. So I haven't, I haven't had trouble getting the four starting pitchers that I'm looking for.
Starting point is 00:21:16 And it's still, like I'm still pretty happy with my hitting. And that's in a roto league, which obviously has more hitter spots to fill than a head to head points league. It's just, there are so many, I feel like the, the high upside bats at the hitting positions,
Starting point is 00:21:33 even in a deeper league like that, they have a better chance of hanging with the truly high-end players than a pitcher does, who is going to, of course, face workload restrictions and whatever else. And also, I feel like if it doesn't work out, if whatever sleeper hitter Idrat doesn't work out, there are going to be a larger number of new ones popping up on waivers
Starting point is 00:21:58 than there will be pitchers. So that's still something. I don't, my approach, it has in other years, but my approach this year I noticed hasn't really changed much depending on the league size. Okay. All right, you mentioned innings, restrictions, or workload or whatever,
Starting point is 00:22:14 I don't remember what you said, but it does segue directly into, it was 30 seconds ago, why would I remember? Directly into email of the day, number two from Dan and Grafton. Hey, Tommy, Dutch, Johnny, and Bobby. Mm-hmm. You know them?
Starting point is 00:22:28 John's, no. I am pretty sure it's karate kid. Those are the Cobra Kai guys. Quick question. With what will most likely be a shortened season, do your starting pitcher rankings change at all? I know it may for injured guys, but I'm thinking more about pitchers
Starting point is 00:22:48 we were expecting innings limits from. Seems to me that guys like Lazzardo, McCullors, and others in the same boat, shouldn't they be more valuable if the season is shortened as the inning limit won't be as big a factor? So I think this is an interesting idea and maybe it should. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the concept, I think because I mostly rank pitchers according to what I think they're going to do game by game.
Starting point is 00:23:16 I've talked about this before where the innings, I'm less concerned about the season long innings projection than the start-by-start innings projection, how deep they go into games because that's really how much impact they're going to have. when they're in your lineup. And obviously when they're not pitching at all, you go with somebody else in your lineup. And it becomes a matter of how much they're impacting your lineup from week to week. So I think my rankings more reflect how deep I expect them to pitch into games
Starting point is 00:23:47 than how many total innings I think they're going to get. So somebody like Jesus Luzardo, I don't suspect the athletics are going to handle him differently start by start. I think they're going to be as cautious with them. him and maybe he'll just be around for he just won't miss as many starts, which would still improve his value, but enough that I want to take him now ahead of some of those other really good pitchers I rank ahead of him. I'm kind of thinking, no.
Starting point is 00:24:17 But it's something I'm going to take a look at and it might be kind of piecemeal where as I'm doing another mock draft, I think, eh, you know what? I like this guy more now and I might move him up based on that. One thing I would say in regards to this is it seems likely we're going to have a season with fewer off days. Look, this is all speculative. We don't know what the season is going to look like. But, you know, the last time the NBA had a strike, they did a shortened, condensed season, but it was also a more. It was amazing.
Starting point is 00:24:53 Oh, my gosh, as a basketball fan, they were playing almost every single night. They had back to back to back. The Knicks were, and they went to the finals that year. It was a great. It was 1999. They had a lockout, and they played like 50 games, and it was constant, constant basketball. But it was great. There was a more recent one.
Starting point is 00:25:14 Which one? There was a lockout in like 2010. I don't even remember that. It started on Christmas. It was a big deal. You might have read about it in the papers. I guess I had stopped watching basketball at that point. But yeah, but yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:28 both cases when they had a shortened season. Yeah. They condensed the schedule. It wasn't just like, we're going to play our normal schedule. They had fewer days off. They packed more games into each day. And so... Expand the rosters.
Starting point is 00:25:46 What's that? Expand the rosters. Yeah, I would guess we're going to see something similar to that. Again, this is 100% speculation at this point, but that might impact a guy like Lance McClain. Lance McCullors, who, you know, the Astros might want to get some time off. Maybe he'll be more likely to have a skipped start in that circumstance. So there's a lot that we have to take into account that we really don't know about yet. All righty.
Starting point is 00:26:14 News and notes. Well, we missed all of this. Get serious news on Tremancini. He had surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon. So I guess safe to say no timetable there. Have we heard anything about this with Mancini? No, I haven't heard anything. It really sucks.
Starting point is 00:26:34 Yeah. So hopefully it'll, you know, be like the other players who have dealt with something like this in the last couple of years. James and Tyone, Carlos Carrasco, and everything will be just fine. But thoughts go out to Trey Mancini. Get well soon. Max Scherzer felt good after a bullpen session. And really not going to be a lot of injuries, news, and notes on these shows. So it's Friday the 13.
Starting point is 00:26:58 everybody's spooked you know so that's by Friday the 13th noise I just saw Adam fumbling with his like well why it's not the sounds not playing I thought that was one of the things
Starting point is 00:27:12 that came out there we go no no I did not have a howling wolf sound effect out here but I do have a what's the deal with Friday the 13th I mean did you guys realize what
Starting point is 00:27:30 Friday the 13th in a row. No way. Really? Yeah, there was one in February, too. I guess you just didn't think it was cool enough to do. I remember that now. Okay. I'm looking at my calendar. It says Friday, it says the 13th was on a Thursday.
Starting point is 00:27:46 Yeah, that was a lie. Thursday the 13th, that's right. I forgot it was a leap year. No, but remember I was like, ooh, it's Thursday the 13th. And you guys are like, that's not a thing. You forgot it was a leap here? Do you have like an internal calendar
Starting point is 00:27:59 where you can count off days that you were just consulting that and thinking back oh, you're like imagining this calendar where you saw a 13 on Friday. February has 28 days. It's four weeks. So whatever the day
Starting point is 00:28:14 would be of the week in February would also be that same day in March. Oh, okay. Neat trick. I'm calling a... Personal foul. On Chris. Oh, you're supposed to just say personal foul, sound by it.
Starting point is 00:28:29 I'm calling. calling a personal foul on Chris. All right, I'm having fun with my board today. Anyway, who are the scariest players in fantasy? Who scares you? Chris? Spooky bets. Spooky bets?
Starting point is 00:28:43 I forgot about this. Oh my gosh. Who else you got? Uh, I got them out. I'm just going through the list. I'll say them randomly while Scott's talking. Well, I'll tell you one that scares me. And boogarts.
Starting point is 00:29:02 Blake hell. I was going to say him, but not with the bad pun. Blake's skeleton. Blake's gel? Sure. What's a ghost's favorite car? What? A suboob.
Starting point is 00:29:20 Oh, gosh. Okay. So, yeah, Blake's still scary, Scott. I mean, first of all, like, he didn't have a good year last. year. I think we're more or less willing to say he was unlucky, whatever. But it did have a 429 ERA, 127 whip, and
Starting point is 00:29:37 you know, he doesn't pitch deep into games. 31 starts since going on the IL in 2018, 6 or more innings and 16 of those 31 starts, seven or more innings twice. So, and already dealing with an elbow issue, which he seems to be recovering well from, but Blake, Blake Hell, Blake Snell,
Starting point is 00:29:53 Blake Skel is scary. Yeah. Just so many variables that I don't know how account for among them being just how amazing he was in 2018. But even then, it was kind of in an atypical way for a Cy Young contender, not pitching deep into game so much. He's had a lot of control issues in his past. He's had a lot of health issues.
Starting point is 00:30:17 I don't know how the race are going to use him. He is somebody who I would take as one of my top four starting pitchers if the Price is right, but I find that somebody else is usually more eager to take him than I am. Would you take Blake's, hold on, Blake Snell or Zach Granky? Granky. Chris? Paul Goulschmidt. I would rather have Blake Snell than Zach Ranking.
Starting point is 00:30:50 Blake Snell or Charlie Morton? Charlie Morton. Okay, Scott. I would rather have Charlie Morton. Who else scares you? Cory Klub. Oh yeah, spooky. Doesn't scare Chris as much, I feel.
Starting point is 00:31:12 No, it's just that he scares everyone. And so this is a guy who had seven bad starts after being a top six starting pitcher. And people are just like, well, he's done. He's finished. And I'm not quite as ready to say that he's done. I'm not either. But it's from a. pitcher who was, even going back to
Starting point is 00:31:38 2018 when he was still in Syung contention, had a great year overall. There were some underlying causes for concern and then he basically lost a year at an age where a decline can come
Starting point is 00:31:54 pretty quickly. And he's going to a park that on paper looks like it should be incredible for hitters. Obviously we don't know yet because games have been played there. But it's just a lot of,
Starting point is 00:32:11 there's a lot of mystery surrounding him. Mystery is not something I like in, picking the first half of the draft. Would you take Trevor, Trevor Bauer scares me quite a bit. Would you take Bauer or Klooper? I would take Bauer, but he's, he's a good submission here. Yeah, I'm concerned that like he's acted in his,
Starting point is 00:32:37 his life as if he has the ultimate rubber arm, like the way he warms up, you know. I wasn't even considering that aspect of it. I was just thinking. Sure, his career. How much worse things got last year and then how they got even worse after he went to Cincinnati and how his profile ground balls to fly balls changed in a way that was just not at all suited for this environment. He got crushed with the long ball.
Starting point is 00:33:07 Yeah, he's going to have to get more grounders. Like, he's going to have to make adjustments to, I think, survive Cincinnati as small as that ballpark is. And I haven't really seen anything that would lead me to believe he's on the right track as far as that goes. So you said Bauer over Kluber, though? I did say Bauer over Kluber. By the way. Scuers me just a little bit more. This is why I like Darvish so much.
Starting point is 00:33:36 And you could definitely put Darvish on this list. I understand why people would be scared of Darvish. It's personal preference. But I just like him. And if I don't get him, then I'm looking at, I'm looking at Bauer, Kluber, and Sonny Gray, who I know Chris just took in the 14-team drafts. Scott believes in.
Starting point is 00:33:55 I'm not scared about Sunny Gray. I'm just confused. I think he's had a very confusing career. That's fair, but it feels like we're giving you Darvish a lot of credit for his second. I am. Jack Flaherty a lot of credit for his. No, but I mean the community as a whole. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:15 We're giving these kind of second half breakouts a lot of credit. Sunny Gray was a top five starting pitcher in the second half. Well, for Flaherty to me it has not really anything to do with the second half of the third best second half ever. It's the full
Starting point is 00:34:30 body of work for Flaherty. But Sunny Gray's ERA was only slightly worse. His strikeout rate was right there. with Flaherty. I think Sunny Gray's being undervalued. I don't know if it would be confirmation bias since I don't know if that's the right application of that
Starting point is 00:34:47 term, but in the case of Flaherty, Darvish, and Sunny Gray, we already had a lot of reason to believe they were good pitchers and then they came through on it. I suppose Trevor Bauer had a great
Starting point is 00:35:04 second half would be the same thing, but he had a horrible second half. But with Gray, he was always a great pitcher that didn't get strikeouts. And last year he had 205 strikeouts and 175 in a third. So that's kind of confusing. I don't think you can fake strikeouts, though. That's kind of one reason why we always focus on them so much. Of course, they're valuable, but they point to skills that are hard to fake.
Starting point is 00:35:32 Okay, but is vintage Sunny Gray, he's a fly ball pitcher, right? No, groundball. Oh, he's a groundball pitcher, right? Yeah. Okay, so he is suited for that part. All right, well, I understand you guys believe in him, and that's fine. Would you take Sunny Gray over Trevor Bauer or Corey Klover, who are on the scare list? Yes, yes, I would.
Starting point is 00:35:56 Okay. I think, yeah. I mean, I'm pretty sure I just did in the editorial league, so. I don't know if Bauer was available. Actually, no, Klooper wasn't available. He had just, he went like two picks before you. And would you like to hear some more scary baseball players? Yeah, by the way, for those youngsters who don't know what this is,
Starting point is 00:36:12 it is from Friday the 13th. Oh, I got a good one. I got a good one. Okay, go ahead, go ahead. It might be, I'll like Chris do his first because I don't want to steal it if you did it. No, wait, I'd rather you do it just because it would be so funny if you stole it. Mike Bustakis. A good one.
Starting point is 00:36:28 No, no, no. Ramone Draculaiano. Shane Zombeber. Nice. Monster masher Wojikowsky. Monster How about
Starting point is 00:36:44 Anthony Renn? Asher because Asher, okay, I get it. I get it. It took a minute to get there.
Starting point is 00:36:51 Anthony Wren, don't open the door because there's a killer behind it. All right. I think that's my favorite one. Rolls off the tongue. Who else?
Starting point is 00:37:02 Ren do. How does your brain even go there? I don't understand. I was looking at you guys started doing these and I was like I needed a list of players so I just started looking at ADP and I saw him and I was like, what could I do with Reddode?
Starting point is 00:37:17 All right, who else? Who else scares you? Who else scares you? Aaron Judge, the reasons that are more obvious now, but he would have qualified for this list for me even before the discovery of the stress fracture and his rib.
Starting point is 00:37:37 It's just basically both years since his rookie year, right? Yeah, it's broken wrists and then, like... Well, even in his rookie year, he had a shoulder issue. Yeah, but the past two years, we drafted him expecting elite production, and while he was good when he was on the field, the end result was very disappointing.
Starting point is 00:37:58 And, yeah, I'm sure Chris would argue. was, you can't predict the injuries. And that's fair. It's probably, it's, you know, I was ranking him in a point before the injury where I was kind of just going along with the crowd and trusting him to be, have another dominant season. But he's just, he's so big that I can't help but wonder if that's a contributing factor. If it's, oh yeah. I mean, look at Stanton.
Starting point is 00:38:34 Look at Stanton. Like, yeah. Is it just that gigantic outfielders that all the torque and stuff? I thought about that. I think it's even different from Stanton because Stanton has that is so muscular, you know? And I feel like players who are outwardly very muscular like that, they tend to suffer these kinds of like muscular injuries. I don't know. I just, that every player I picture.
Starting point is 00:39:04 who has that kind of physique, that seemed like an issue for them throughout their career. He's the tallest player. But Judge is just, like, big, like, historically, just in terms of just size, not even so much body composition. Yeah. That, I mean, the season is so grueling,
Starting point is 00:39:26 and does that kind of body hold up as well. I don't know if this is fair, but it's a place my mind goes when, when I look at what's happened to judge and makes me a little more reluctant to draft them. Tallest position player in baseball history. Yep. That, you know, I'm trying to find the
Starting point is 00:39:46 the Giancarlo Stanton's story I wrote because I did some research on really large players. And there are not that many who have played full seasons. You know, obviously in baseball history, there just haven't been that many players who were as big as John Carlos Stanton, let alone Aaron Judge. But he's 245 pounds. I can't find the numbers. I'm sorry. Okay, I think three players have managed to play at least 150 games more than four times at a 245 pound listed weight in the last 10 years. and so other guys like Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Miguel Snow, those three have combined to do it one time in their careers.
Starting point is 00:40:41 15 players played at least 100 games in 2019 at 245 pounds. Only three managed to play 150. So I think it is a legitimate thing that guys who are that big just may not be able to stand up to the kind of weight that they play at in Major League Baseball. I know it sounds kind of weird because football has guys who are that big, and it's a much more punishing sport. But the fact that you get so many more days off in football might make it more conducive to players that are standing up to it. Whereas you've got to be out there every day. Yeah. Yeah, it's just that day-to-day grind in baseball and with no built-in recovery time.
Starting point is 00:41:24 Yeah, no, I hear that. Interesting. Cabin in the woods. Oh, man, I didn't know. Sorry. Dang. Kevin in the woods, Bigio. Man.
Starting point is 00:41:33 It would be Kevin Bizio in the woods. No, I don't think so. I don't think so. Pick a player, and I will make a scary pun out of his name. Pick any player. Yon Moncada. Okay. Just give me a moment.
Starting point is 00:41:52 All right, let's do a... I'll come up with it. ADP by name. Are there any Jasons in honor of Friday the 13th? Not really. Jason Hayward, Jason K. Castro and Jason Kibniz. That is weird.
Starting point is 00:42:03 No good Jason's in fantasy baseball. How about Chris Scott and Adam? Chris is the clear winner here. He's got Chris Paddock, Chris Sale, Chris Bassett, Chris Archer. Scott has Scott Kingery and Scott Oberg and Stephen Piscotti. Yeah. And I have Adam Eaton, Adam Ottavino, and Willie Adamas.
Starting point is 00:42:21 I'm taking Willie Adamas for sure. There are only two Adams. That's surprising. Yeah, according to just my little control F. I got you beat. What? I figured it out. Oh, Yo-O-Mong-O-Ga?
Starting point is 00:42:34 That was not fair. You had time to think. Yo-on slender Munkata. Slender man? That's good. I had nothing for him. I was thinking like, Yo-on, turning that into Go-On?
Starting point is 00:42:48 Like, yo-on and run away from that killer, Mankata. That's terrible. Terrible. We wanted to take a look at ADP on different websites, specifically ESPN and Yahoo. I tried to go through the spreadsheet that Chris sent me, and I sort of did not get to Yahoo,
Starting point is 00:43:08 but here's some things I can tell you about ESPN. Really strange. Francisco Lindor, you look at the elite shortstops. Francisco Lindor's ADP is the same. It's seven. It's basically seven on every website right around there. But Trevor Story goes 18th on ESPN. Trey Turner goes 15th, and Fernando Tatis goes 36th.
Starting point is 00:43:26 Now, I know ESPN does points leagues. They also do Categorries leagues. So I don't know what that ADP is. But Story, Turner, and Tatis are all lower on ESPN's ADP than they are on the other sites. And we're looking at ESPN versus Yahoo, NFBC, and CBS. So that was interesting. I wonder if their in-house rating system
Starting point is 00:43:51 doesn't value stolen bases as much. That or points, but yes, there's obviously something going on there with steals. Charlie Blackman goes early on CBS, 26th, not a huge value there. 44th on NFPC. On ESPN, yeah. Yeah. I said CBS.
Starting point is 00:44:10 I'm sorry. Yep. Yeah. 26 on ESPN, 35th on CBS. 36th on Yahoo. 44th on NFPC, Charlie Blackman. Yeah. Wow.
Starting point is 00:44:21 26th is probably more, I think that's about exactly where I ranked Charlie Blackman in the first place. before I knew I could get them later. What did you say, Chris? They're going off Scott's ranking. No, that's not what I meant. I just think it's not an inappropriate ranking. It's just the way things have gone.
Starting point is 00:44:42 Everybody's kind of reached a consensus where Charlie Blackburn can go later than that, so why take them that early? I guess if you play on ESPN, you might have to. But a lot of this, I'm sure the big distinctions here are driven by just the way the players are listed in the draft room.
Starting point is 00:45:00 And I'm sure each of these different sites has different methods for the way they position players in the draft room. And, you know, the average user is just going to open up the draft room and see the names at the top of the list and say, I want that guy and take them. So it ends up, you end up seeing these distinctions across the different fantasy providers. Well, I think, Chris, you might be on to something with the steals on ESPN
Starting point is 00:45:29 because Alberto Monasey is 97th in ESPN ADP, and he's like 40th on the other website. So you consider that. Don't draft Manny Machado in an ESPN league. He's going 38th overall. He's going 57th to 59th on Yahoo, NFPC, and CBS, and we think that is too early. 58th overall is too early for Manny Machado. So 38th overall on ESPN is horribly early. The three players that I just love the value, maybe, no, four players, are these young, either prove-it breakouts or potential breakouts.
Starting point is 00:46:04 Kestin Hira, Lucas Gialito, Chris Paddock, and Vladimir Guerrero. In order, it's actually Gialito, Hira, Guerrero, and Paddock. They're all going 70th to 77th overall. And on other websites, some of them are in the 40s, 50s, 50s, 6th. 60s, none of them lower than 66th. So young potential breakouts in Kestin, Hira, Vlad, Gialito, and Paddock. And Bo Bouchet as well, 87th overall on ESPN, 65th to 67th overall on the other sites, just going later in ESPN leagues.
Starting point is 00:46:43 Udarvish going 86th much later on ESPN than other websites. That's all I got for now. Actually, it's not a hard exercise to do. I could just take a look. Chris made a great spreadsheet very helpful. so we can just pull that up and maybe we can look at some Yahoo differences.
Starting point is 00:46:59 I wonder how much of this is just driven by Tristan Cockroft or Eric Carabelle's personal expectations, their own personal rankings. For instance, CBS is I would guess not driven much at all by my own
Starting point is 00:47:19 because the players are in the draft room according to sports line projections, which I have nothing to do with. You can sort the players in the draft room by my rankings, but I assume few people do. I do. Seriously, every time. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:35 You're the only person I trust Scott. Well, I'm always drafting with Scott, so I want to know what he's going to do. But no, even when I'm not, I... That puts me at a distinct disadvantage. Even when I'm not, I do. I know the few times that I disagree with Scott, but for the most part, I think his rankings are excellent.
Starting point is 00:47:51 I just, I like following when our analysts don't agree with their own rankings. I did a football draft with Dave Richard and I had the fourth pick. He had the third pick and he had Ezekiel Elliott as the top player and didn't take him. Top player available, right? Yeah. Why are you lying to me, Dave? So just if we look a little later in the draft, some values you could get. Like I don't understand why Marcelo Zuna is going 56th overall on ESPN.
Starting point is 00:48:21 Yes, BN's ADP is a little funky because Marcelo Zuna is about 100th on the other websites. I think he's one of the best values. But not at 56. But not at 56. Yeah. At 100. Let's see. Carlos Correa jumped out at me.
Starting point is 00:48:38 Bad value on CBS. Seventy-fourth overall. He's going 97th on Yahoo. So that's good. That's even better. Like 74th overall, I'm not saying that's actually bad value for Correa. I think it's fine. But you can get them 97th on Yahoo
Starting point is 00:48:53 or around there. That's obviously great. And remember, this is average. This is not what's going to happen in your draft. And it's worth saying value is always a relative term. Yeah. Like, Carlos Gray is only a bad value on CBS because you can get him later on other sites
Starting point is 00:49:13 and it allows you to get better player before, well, not better than him in my opinion at least, but you can wait on him, get other players, and get a better player with your 95th overall pick. Yeah, and that concept is probably even more applicable this year than part of the reason why I'm going SP-heavy early in drafts is because Carlos Correa, if your projections spit him out as the number five shortstop,
Starting point is 00:49:51 It's hard to say you're wrong about that. I mean, there are certain risk factors that force me to push him down beyond that. But that's just kind of true across the whole hitting pool is that so many players are capable of performing like high-end players that there's going to be, if you're not used to, if you're not already accustomed to the consensus of where these players go, then there's justification to take them much sooner or much later, just depending on your own personal. preference. Here are three more players I want to highlight. Two players that are going earlier on CBS and you might be able to get two rounds later on Yahoo or ESPN or more. Frankie Montas, 99th on CBS, 145th on ESPN, 124th on Yahoo. Frankie Montas. Was Carlos Santana? No, it wasn't Santana. I mean, I understand why he's going earlier on CBS because he's a points league guy.
Starting point is 00:50:49 There's one more. I'm sorry, I'm having trouble finding him. Oh, Max Kepler. Max Kepler 109th on, this is specifically for Yahoo. Kepler 109th on CBS, 114 on ESPN, 138th on Yahoo. I don't know how I feel about Max Kepler. I said this to Scott a few weeks ago, but everybody on the Twins had an amazing year last year.
Starting point is 00:51:12 They just, they had trash cans or something. And I'm just like. I don't know what to make of that because sometimes, like, we saw it with the Blue Jays. One year they had the greatest lineup ever, basically. They had Donaldson and Cardassian-Bautista. They were really good the next year, but they took a step back. We've seen it with the Red Sox. It's hard to do.
Starting point is 00:51:30 I don't think the twins are going to be as good. I just think a lot of their hitters are just going to regress. So Kepler, Garver, Nelson Cruz, having his best season ever. Basically, like, almost every one in the lineup was so good. So I don't know how I feel about Kepler, but 138th overall sounds a lot better than 109th. and that's what Yahoo is showing, 138. No. Yeah, that's...
Starting point is 00:51:55 Kepler's been a difficult player for me to account for. I think at a points league, because he strikes out so little, it's easier. And obviously, points league approach. Points League evaluation players is always simpler because it's just what does the final output look like. But it's in a five-by-five league where he's not contributing much of anything. steals the power output was good last year but it was also an outlier to this point there are reasons to think it'll continue but
Starting point is 00:52:28 maybe it doesn't but really it comes down to the batting average for being a guy who doesn't strike out much he is of no help in batting average really he has become so fly ball focused which is allowed him to have this power breakthrough but the tradeoff is not much help in batting average so at a at a position where there are a lot of late round alternatives and at a time when power the main thing he provides is in such abundance. And then you factor in, well, that season is, it was kind of a, it was kind of a breakout that we don't know. We don't know exactly what the follow-up is going to look like. I think it's pretty easy to push Max Kepler down.
Starting point is 00:53:12 And I have quite a bit since my initial rankings came out. Okay. All right, guys, let's finish the show. What? Jake Scarietta. Yeah, he has an injury. I didn't listen to that entire discussion because I was looking for a player
Starting point is 00:53:28 whose name would fit with scare. Also, Carter Kiboum. Yeah, that's right. Who just has a straight up scary name? An explosion. Who? I think of Kibum is very colorful. Like, I think of a comic book. Like, he's a comic book panel in action.
Starting point is 00:53:45 Putting the emphasis on the boo, like a ghost. Like, boo. Oh, yeah. You were putting the emphasis on boo. McKenzie Gore. McKenzie Gore, yeah. Oh, man. That's too easy.
Starting point is 00:53:58 So we not get there. Let's read some emails. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This one is from everyone. I've gotten so many of this question. We always talk about SPARPs, starting pitchers as relief pitchers. What about RP eligible guys that we could put in starting pitchers? Oh, God.
Starting point is 00:54:16 And I hate this question. Well, it's just. I've seen this question a bunch. I think you've put it in the notes like three times we haven't gotten to it. And I just keep forgetting to actually look. And so I'm trying to stall for time. If anybody wants to start saying baseball player,
Starting point is 00:54:32 uh, scary name puns while I'm looking. Sean do little to stop that killer that's waiting behind your door. Ooh. I think, I think, Sean Anderson. I know he's definitely one of those guys.
Starting point is 00:54:51 if he does become a save source for the Giants. I don't think there are many of them. So, oh, guys, that could R.P. eligible players or SP eligible players, no, no, R.P. eligible players who are going to be relievers, right? That could help it with saves. Ryan Stanach, there's not going to be many who can help you with saves. But I think the question is more about guys that you can just put in your lineup who can help you out. like when you don't have anybody else
Starting point is 00:55:24 who can just help you with some get some strikeouts maybe get some ratio help so Ryan Stanick Diego Castillo I guess is starting pitcher eligible somehow ah yes because he was used as an opener a few times and he could be a contributor in saves for the Yankees
Starting point is 00:55:43 oh yeah good one who's oh Chad Green you said yeah the problem is there's not many who are good There's like guys like Wilmer Font and Matt Whistler and Cam Bedrosian if he's back. Matt Whistler passed the graveyard. Yes. Okay, so those are some names. I wanted to throw out the name of a reliever that somebody wrote in an email, Todd, that he used the Tapp-Hap-Hap AMC reliever or Roto strategy that I was touting.
Starting point is 00:56:16 And I liked his team. It was good. He has Cole and Flaherty. Paxson, he is hater, he is Rogers, Giles, Doolittle, Jose Alvarado. That's exactly, I love it. And a reliever that he has that just, he barely
Starting point is 00:56:30 pitched last year, so completely under the radar, but James Karen Chach, K, I don't even know how to pronounce his name. It begins with a K. For the Cleveland Indians, K-A-R-I-N-C-H-A-K, five-and-a-third, one-walk, eight strikeouts last year. So, he came up and
Starting point is 00:56:50 was very impressive as a rookie. This will be his official rookie season, but it could be another guy. I'm not saying draft them. Could be another guy that you're monitoring to see if he's going to be a reliever gives ratio help. No, he's not SP eligible or anything like that,
Starting point is 00:57:03 but just a name. Okay, how about this one from Matt? I listen to the show every day. I remember you mentioning a change Aaron Nola made recently. What was that change? I was leaning toward grabbing Nola in the third and Gialito in the fourth,
Starting point is 00:57:16 hoping one of them hits enough to keep her a few years. So Chris Young was the Phillies pitching coach last year, kind of a new style guy, more analytically driven. And he kind of, his philosophy was kind of to push all Phillies pitchers towards the trend of locating the fastball high in the zone, which works well with, hey, that's pretty scary, right? Which works well. with high spin with high spin fastballs that kind of have that rising effect
Starting point is 00:57:53 as they come in toward the hitter they expect it to drop down into their wheelhouse they swing a miss uh... a randola does not throw a high spin fastball so the Phillies have a more traditional pitching coach now is brian price right and uh...
Starting point is 00:58:08 Aaronola is back to his old approach of locating his low spin fastball down in the zone where he had so much success And yeah, it goes against the trends of today, but it might be better suited to his skill set. And he sounds like he's much happier with it. Yeah, Brian Price is the dude. Okay, how about this one from Tim in Denver?
Starting point is 00:58:31 Hey, Savage, Astaire, and Armisen. Fred's. Freds. On Sunday, you guys said you didn't understand why Freddie Freeman was going so late, but I think it's pretty simple. 2017, he was injured. 2018, he only hit 23 homers in 162 games.
Starting point is 00:58:46 2019 was a career year, not to mention he'll be 31 before the end of the season. If this is everyone's hesitation, are we all crazy for letting him fall to the end of the second round? I know you all love Freeman, but do you think his track record really earns him a spot in the first round? I'd rather take Jose Ramirez, Noah Aronado, and J.D. Martinez. I think it's even simpler than that. He doesn't steal bases. Well, for a first baseman, he's not that bad, though. He's like eight steals. He'll give you, like, he'll give you like a steel season recently, right?
Starting point is 00:59:14 When I was rating skills, my tiers according to skill, I gave him, where I gave everybody a letter grade for batting average home runs and stolen bases. I gave Freddie Freeman a D, so not quite an F. But 10 in 2018. Right, he could steal 10. He probably won't. Probably won't.
Starting point is 00:59:35 Five is all I think you can reasonably hope for. And are you changing your draft approach for the possibility of five? I am not. No, I mean, you just look at the kind of players who go ahead of him, who you may think of his quote-unquote worse, and he just gets pushed back by all the base Steelers and the additional high in starting pitchers being drafted in the first two rounds this year. To me, that's totally the explanation. I do want to say that I think the home runs are legit, because in 2016, he hit 34 homers in 158 games. And in 2017, he was on pace for 37 in 155 games.
Starting point is 01:00:18 And then Freeman had a bad year in 2018, but wasn't that when he was coming back from the hand or the wrist injury, which could be an injury? He said he felt like, I believe the quote was he felt like by the end of the season, he was swinging a wet newspaper. Right. So I think that's a perfectly logical explanation. And then he hit 38 last year.
Starting point is 01:00:35 And he was on pace for even more than that before he played through a wrist injury in September. So I understand being concerned about the wrist, but I do think a healthy Freddie Freeman is at least 35 home runs, probably 38 to 42, something like that. And he hits in the middle of the order of what's going to be a really good lineup. He gets on base. His batting average is going to really stand out. It's almost like I can understand all the reasons for him to go in the middle of the second round.
Starting point is 01:01:06 But if I do get him there, it may not be a steal, but it's a great pick. And I just love it, if that makes sense. It's like, he's so good. And I can understand what Scott said, all the reasons why these guys would go ahead. But, oh, crap, I can't get a stolen base source. I have to settle for Freddie Freeman.
Starting point is 01:01:23 That's cool. That works for me. From Aaron. Scott's starting pitching strategy is based on a potential ace workload of 200 innings a year. And the reason for taking four of the top 33 or 36, whatever, is because they don't just pop up on the waiver wire. Once they're off the draft board, they're gone.
Starting point is 01:01:39 And it's true that 200-ending aces don't just pop up, but we certainly get minor leaguers who come up mid-season for 80 to 120 in innings that work in ACE's workload on a start-by-start basis. I'm thinking Scott might disagree with that. Is it more appropriate to think of the ace workload as six-plus innings per start instead of over the course of the season?
Starting point is 01:01:59 Scott already said that today. Yeah, that was kind of a point I was making. But I don't know that minor leaguers come up and really have ACE workloads. How many did last year, Zach Allen? Ellen. Even Paddock didn't, you know? Yeah, I mean, it wasn't like, it's not just minor leaders.
Starting point is 01:02:16 Like, Frankie Montas came out of nowhere and basically did that. Yeah, yeah. There will be some surprising pitchers. I mean, Gialito was probably the biggest one. Nobody really wanted Gialito coming into the season. It's not that there will be zero, but it'll be such a small number that you can't count on being the one who gets any. You may get one. If you get two, it's a miracle.
Starting point is 01:02:39 You shouldn't count. All right. Last question here is from Jason and Kansas City. He usually does a in-person auction, but given the circumstances, they're going to do an online auction. Is there a video we can watch or perhaps set up practice drafts on the site so we can see how this looks before we get into the draft room live for the first time? If not, any advice you can give on how the auction room works would be helpful.
Starting point is 01:03:04 Is it a countdown for a certain amount of time? Blah, blah, blah. Can the commission stop the draft because somebody calls a time out? Yeah. Yeah. It's the same. I don't know if he said in the email, if he's done a draft before. But basically the same commissioner options are there as for a draft.
Starting point is 01:03:22 When you set up the auction, you get to choose what the nomination time is and what the bidding time is. I usually said it so the nomination time is 30 seconds. The bid time is 15 seconds. when somebody bids and the bidding time starts over. Hold on. Start over at the full time. Can we do just basic like a glossary? Nomination time is when each, let's say they're 12 teams.
Starting point is 01:03:51 It doesn't snake, but there's like an order in which you get to nominate players. So you have 30 seconds to pick the player you're going to nominate. Bidding time after that player is nominated. And that player can be nominated for any price. So you can nominate Mike Trout for a dollar if you want. but you might as well just start it at 30, so we don't have to sit there and keep clicking plus 1 until we get up the 50.
Starting point is 01:04:09 You can nominate any player for any price. That's the nomination. The bidding time is when now everybody gets to start bidding on them. Okay, so 30 seconds to nominate, bam, players up. And if you don't nominate someone in 30 seconds, it'll take from your cue, or it'll just take the highest ranked player
Starting point is 01:04:25 that's available in the draft room. And then, bidding time, 15 seconds. All right, everybody start getting your bids in, and then it starts counting down, and then once it gets to five seconds, Gus Johnson goes, going once, and then like down to two seconds,
Starting point is 01:04:41 going twice, and then sold, but a lot of times somebody presses the plus one button right as he's saying sold, and the guy's still going for auctions. It's really, really fun, and it's like, oh, I thought I had them.
Starting point is 01:04:53 I get frustrated. That's really funny. When it's like a player that I'm on and I'm about to win them and I hear that sold and someone hits it at the last minute, it's just like, bit earlier. I know. It's such a jerk move.
Starting point is 01:05:06 Then I either, I do one of two things. I'm just going to keep hitting the plus one no matter how long it takes for me to get that player and I'm going to spend too much money. Or I'm just going to like rage out and not bid. Yeah. And it's just, you know, you got to keep your emotions in check. Yeah. Auctions mess with your head, man.
Starting point is 01:05:25 But you don't want to give away. You don't want to tip your hand. Like if there's a player that gets nominated and I want them, I'm going to wait until there's like five seconds on the clock before. I put it because I don't want to give away that I really want this guy. But anyway, that's a whole long discussion. I think it's pretty much it, right? You can pause a draft whenever you want.
Starting point is 01:05:45 Make sure you have people queued up because sometimes that 30 seconds to nominate a player actually goes pretty quickly. And you kind of lose track of it and you say, who do I want to nominate? Do I want a guy I want? Do I want a guy I don't want? But you'll get the hang of it. It's really easy and really fun. And you can always pause and you can always back out a pick.
Starting point is 01:06:07 Yeah. If something, particularly if you're new to the room and you don't. Yeah. Like sometimes what will happen is if somebody runs out of time to nominate, he'll get put on autopilot. And then that can sometimes lead to bids that are the guy on autopilot is bidding without intending to. It's just the autopilot is bidding for him. So things can happen like that. But you can always back out picks.
Starting point is 01:06:32 and you have full control as a commissioner like that. And we talked about this when we did the auction preview. Scott says he never hits the plus one button. And that could be really for someone who's never done an auction, that could be the scariest thing because, like, multiple people are bidding. And there's a plus one option, right? If somebody's for 20, you hit the plus one. Now you're bidding 21.
Starting point is 01:06:53 Well, if multiple people are bidding, it kind of frequently happens. Not frequently, but it happens. You meant to hit plus one for 21 while somebody beat you to it. You still hit plus one, and all of a sudden you're bidding 22. So that's why Scott likes to type in his bid. You can also do that. You can type in the dollar amount that you want.
Starting point is 01:07:11 You don't have to just hit plus one. So if you're worried about that, that's a good idea that Scott said a few weeks ago to just avoid the plus one button and just put in the dollar amount you want. All right, everybody, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday. On Monday the 16th. See you then. God cadaver! I win!

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