Fantasy Baseball Today - Players Trending Up Heading Into The Second Half! (7/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 13, 2026

Hunter Greene bounced back in a huge way (2:45). ... Sean Burke keeps impressing (5:15). ... Esmerlyn Valdez had a monster doubleheader (11:30). ... News (19:58): Misiorowski was scratched Sunday. ...... Skenes' velocity was down again (39:14). ... Cade Cavalli looked good Sunday (45:10). ... Rocchio is picking things back up (58:07). ... Zack Wheeler is on fire (1:05:19). ... Freddy Peralta is going through it (1:12:23). ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpens and streamers (1:19:11).Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for the newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Pettles down. The first half is over. Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today on Monday.
Starting point is 00:00:29 July 13th, I am Frank Stample joined by Chris Towers. Today on the show, Pretty much our usual weekend recap. There are a bunch of players trending up heading into the second half. We will check in on Paul Skeens' velocity. Kind of feels like we'll just do that every start now until the end of time.
Starting point is 00:00:45 The latest waiver wire names and much more. But let's get things started with the players of the weekend. Brought to you by Stitch Fix. If you're like me and clothes shopping isn't your thing, Stitch Fix has you covered. Get $20 off your first order at Stitchfix.com slash baseball.
Starting point is 00:01:01 All right. the players of the weekend. And we have lots of pitchers that are trending up, Chris, but we needed to see a start like this at a Hunter Green. We got it. His first good start of the season from Hunter Green. It was his second start of the season, but still his first good one.
Starting point is 00:01:28 And it was pretty much the classic Hunter Green start. He struck out 12 over seven shutout innings against the Cubs. in your great American small park, only one walk, three hits. He generated 14 whiffs, seven them with the four seamer, six with the slider, the velocity right where we want it to be. It was basically just the two pitches doing all the work, but that's usually what it looks like for Hunter Green. And I didn't really have much concern after his very admittedly poor first start
Starting point is 00:02:05 where he gave up eight runs and three and a third innings. I didn't really have much concern about that. But still, it was nice to see him bounce back and look like himself because he was coming back from elbow surgery. You never quite know how everyone's going to come back from even a relatively minor surgery. But the fact that of the two starts, I think one of them was about as good as you can expect,
Starting point is 00:02:28 I think that makes me think Hunter Green's just going to be himself moving forward. Yeah, I think so too. Obviously, the first one was terrible. Eight earned runs over three in the third innings, four walks, lots of hard contact. This was the complete opposite here for Hunter Green. Classic Hunter Green Star, lots of fastballs, lots of sliders. Both of those pitches were awesome for him in this one. He threw 73% of his pitches for strikes.
Starting point is 00:02:52 And again, the overall line, seven shutout, 12 strikeouts here against the Chicago Cubs. I just checked to see where we have him ranked heading into the second half. We both have him at SP 24, but if, you know, for me, that's kind of guarding against, you know, anything popping back up with that elbow. But if we get a few more starts where he looks like Hunter Green, he's probably inside the top 15 starting pitchers
Starting point is 00:03:15 rest of the season. Yeah, I, let me see where I have him because I can't imagine I had him too far from that. We haven't been in the same spot, 24. Okay. Yeah, I don't think it will take very much to move him up. So, and in, yeah, in Roto, I have him 14th. So I think the strikeout edge will always keep him a little higher in roto than points,
Starting point is 00:03:39 but I'm more or less back in on Hunter Green entirely. All right, let's talk about another pitcher who is definitely trending up as well. I mean, he's one of the recent waiver wire pitchers that we've talked a ton about, but he just keeps putting up these massive starts. And that is Sean Burke up against the athletics, seven innings of one-run ball, nine strikeouts to zero walks this weekend, 16 whiffs on 98 pitches, 10 of those on the fastball, three on the curve, two on the slider.
Starting point is 00:04:06 His velocity remained up. His fastball is up 1.2 miles per hour in this start. Average 96 miles per hour on that pitch. Obviously, it was great. His breaking pitches on the season, great out very well, both the curve and the slider. Obviously, that fastball has been very good as well. And over his last five starts,
Starting point is 00:04:24 five games for those starts. One of them was a bulk relief appearance against the Yankees, which... where he went seven and two-thirds innings. Yeah, that was actually the start of this run here for Sean Burke. 169 ERA, a 0.97 whip, 11.8K per 9 to just 1.4 walks per 9, 15% swinging strike rate. And those are ace level numbers. I mean, obviously we're not expecting Sean Burke to remain an ace,
Starting point is 00:04:50 but he is someone that is climbing up the rankings pretty rapidly. Yeah, and I believe these last four starts are the, only starts in Sean Burke's career. Four of the last five, excuse me, are the only starts in Sean Burke's career where he has averaged at least 96 miles per hour with his four seamer. Sorry, that's not 100% true.
Starting point is 00:05:15 He had one start at the end of last season, his final start where he averaged 97. Other than that, this is the only time in Sean Burke's career where he's averaged 96 miles per hour with his four seamer. and that pitch has been a huge weapon for him. It's been, I mean, on the season, it's a 26% whiff rate. It's been even higher over the past five starts.
Starting point is 00:05:39 I want to see he had eight swinging strikes on the four seamer in this start. He's just, he's added like a mile and a half per hour on his fastball. He's sustained it. And it's gone from a pretty good pitch to a really, really great one. And it's just made the whole arsenal look a lot. lot better. So I think what we're seeing here is real, which is a different thing than is sustainable because velocity, you can't fake it, right? Like, you're throwing 96, you're throwing 96. That's real. Can you keep doing it? That's always the question. And it's not something you can necessarily count on.
Starting point is 00:06:24 but in Sean Burke's case, I am more or less completely bought in at this point to what he's doing. This five-start stretch, strikeouts have been at least six in every start, eight or more in four of the five, and the eight or more have all come in those starts where the average fastball velocity has been 96 or above. So there's, you know, small sample size,
Starting point is 00:06:50 but very strong correlation here. So if he can sustain this, It's not a guarantee, but it's very exciting what we're seeing from Sean Burke. We love an elite fastball. That's such a good way to build a foundation because guys can, you can generate spin or a new change-up grip and all that stuff. But, you know, velocity is harder to add, especially in season, and he's done it. So I'm very excited about what we've seen.
Starting point is 00:07:20 Yeah, and overall in the season, a big key has been getting the walks down last year, he was up over four walks per nine. This year it's down to 2.8 walks per nine and obviously even much better during this recent stretch as well. His K-minus walk rate is all the way up to 19%. And even the ERA estimators like 366 FIPP, 361 XERA.
Starting point is 00:07:40 Like it's all pretty much buying in. And that's for the whole season, not just this start where his talent level has increased. So yeah. I had remained stubborn in having Ian Seymour ranked ahead of him. Obviously Seymour stumbled here on Sunday, but I can't argue it anymore.
Starting point is 00:07:56 Sean Burke has moved past Ian Seymour. And I think he's bordering on a top 50 starting pitcher. Now, we have been burned at least once this year by a different White Sox pitcher being inside our top 50 and Davis Martin. But see, that one, there was less of a compelling reason. Like there was less of a tangible skill change. It was just kind of the same Davis Martin pitching better. He added a cutter.
Starting point is 00:08:23 It wasn't entirely the same. but that was the only real change and it's not I don't think the cutter was a very good pitch for him so I think we are seeing more tangible changes in Sean Burke's game to grab on to that's not to say it will be sustainable I would guess he's not suddenly an ace but we're seeing it right now and I think it is worth buying into not that I mean I think he's pretty close to 100% roster at this point right Sean Burke I believe he's up over 80 I think he's around 80% but not 100 yet.
Starting point is 00:08:57 It wouldn't be over 100. 84% there for Sean Burke on CBS. Let's check in on Yahoo because usually that lags a little bit. 67%. So I understand a lot of people on Yahoo. It's a lot of daily lineup leagues
Starting point is 00:09:11 had dead categories. There's a lot of turn and burn. I think Sean Burke is someone that just needs to remain on your roster. I think in a league like that you keep churning and burning until you find guys that like do enough interesting where they can stick around. And I think Sean Burke has proven that.
Starting point is 00:09:27 So you made all the points that I was going to say exactly comparing and contrasting him and Davis Martin. The underlying numbers of support a lot more of what Sean Burke is doing right now than what Davis Martin was doing earlier on in the season. Also 26-year-old versus 29-year-old. There's a little bit different there too. Yeah. I mean, there was just more of a track record of Davis Martin just being not good in the majors so far.
Starting point is 00:09:49 So yes, Sean Burke, one of those names trending up as well. another one, not a pitcher, but an outfielder. I mean, will it ever stop? Will he stop hitting home runs? I don't want him to. Got him in a few spots. But the magician, Esmerlin Valdez, just a monster weekend. He kept it going.
Starting point is 00:10:07 Huge double header on Saturday, four for eight with three home runs in that game, eight RBI. Did he, I don't think he home run again on Sunday, did he? I could be wrong. He did not. He had a double, scored a couple runs. Yes. But man, that double header that he had on.
Starting point is 00:10:22 on Saturday was just insane. I think one of them was either a three run or a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh thing of that game too. So just monster stuff that he's doing right now. I think all three homers were go-ahead homers somehow. I think that was what I saw. Yeah. So 28 games now with the Pirates. He's sitting 309 with 10 homers and a 1084 OPS.
Starting point is 00:10:44 The strikeouts still remain very high. I mean, it's a 36% strikeout rate. We were talking beforehand. I wanted to look this up. And even in July, where he's doing all this crazy damage, his K rate is still well over 30%. His own contact is really bad, the swinging strike rate. But man, when he makes contact, Chris,
Starting point is 00:11:01 he is just mauling the ball. A 31% barrel rate. I mean, that's stuff that you see from like Aaron Judge. So similar talking points, I don't think this is sustainable for Esmerlin Valdez. But he's just someone that has to be like 100% roster at this point just in case he is like the big, power massive breakout this season and into the second half as well. Yeah. So I remember
Starting point is 00:11:29 Austin Riley's rookie season. Is this pre-Frank? This might have been pre-Frank. Scott got a lot of grief for there was a similar run for Austin Riley and Scott got a lot of grief for saying it wasn't real and I don't want people to yell at me because I hope. I mean, it's a 400 Babbup and a 400 ISO. It's not real. But I think it goes without saying that as Merle-Vald does, is not a 309 hitter with a 1084 OPS moving forward. Aaron Judge is like the only hitter in baseball that I would say, okay, that's the floor. It's just a question of, is he a 209 hitter? Well, with a 36% strikeout rate, he very well may be. But, you know, can he be a 249 hitter? If he's a 249 hitter, then I think he's a legitimate fantasy contributor
Starting point is 00:12:18 because he's a patient hitter. He draws walks, 17% walk rate at AAA this year, 11% the previous year. The power is real. It was a 271 ISO this year, 234 at last season, hits the ball hard.
Starting point is 00:12:33 There are legitimate skills here. It's just if he hits 260, he's a star. If he hits 240, he's a pretty good player. If he hits 210, he's probably not a, a viable major league. And I think that's a realistic range of outcomes for him.
Starting point is 00:12:50 And I think the 210 is probably more realistic than the 260. So it's tough because it's not real, but how unreal is it? That's what I'm not prepared to say yet. But I would guess he's more of a 240 hitter than a 300 hitter, certainly. You have me going down in Austin Riley rabbit hole now. I'm looking at Austin Riley's rookie season where in his first 34 games, which is a pretty close sample to where we're at with Esmerlin Valdez. He hit 291 with 12 homers, 34 RBI, a 964 OPS, and a 31% strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:13:27 And from that point forward, he, let's see, he got sent down back down to the miners at some point. His final 466 games, Austin Riley, hit 164 with six homers and a 41% strikeout rate of 546 OPS. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean the same exact thing is going to happen. been to as Merlin Valdez, but it's similar context in terms of, you know, a good prospect that came up, hit the ground running, lots of power, but the strikeouts underneath were really scary. And even some of the other, besides just the strikeouts themselves, the zone contact, the swinging strike rate, all that stuff is very high for as Merlin Valdez. So look, he's been one of the hottest hitters over the past couple of weeks since rejoining
Starting point is 00:14:09 the pirates. You have to have them on your team just to see where it goes. Continue to use them, obviously, no doubt. but the XBA is 243, so that tells you what you need to know. He's overperforming that by 65 points right now. So unless he gets those strikeouts down, there will be some batting average regression at some point, but he is absolutely destroying the baseball,
Starting point is 00:14:29 impacting it in a big way. And that Pirates lineup, man, they've actually been really exciting to watch and they finally have run support after years of not having that. So yeah, yeah, very fun things to watch right now with the Pirates in their lineup, and obviously Esmerlin Valdez as well. Big thanks to Stitch Fix for sponsoring this weekend's players of the night.
Starting point is 00:14:50 Stitch Fix takes the hassle out of clothes shopping. Just take a quick style quiz, share your size, your vibe, and your budget, and you'll be matched with a real human stylist who will send you a fixed box with clothes that fit and makes sense for your life. Get started today at Stitchfix.com slash baseball. For $20 off your first order, that's Stitchfix.com slash baseball. And before we hit our first break, just want to remind everyone, programming still being kind of sorted out for the rest of the week.
Starting point is 00:15:18 But I do know what we have coming on Monday night. That will be an MLB draft recap with our buddy, the Welsh. Chris Welsh, he does great work over at Fantasy Pros and obviously we've had them on many times before. We'll do that right after the Home Run Derby. So let's say at 11 p.m. Eastern time, somewhere around there. The White Sox selected UCLA shortstop Rock Chalowski, first overall in the draft.
Starting point is 00:15:41 So we'll talk about some of the big names, his way too early first year player draft rankings for those who play in Dynasty Leagues. I think people are too excited about this guy. They need to chill out ski. I'm sorry. Yeah, I did notice I was watching Rob Manfred like budgered his name too.
Starting point is 00:16:00 It's like, dude, you have one job, man. Just know how to say his name when you get to the podium. But yeah, we'll talk about all the big name players you need to know from the MLB draft. We don't talk too much about, you know, look, to be honest, I don't watch college baseball. So that's why I'm leaning on the Welsh year to find out what he knows about these players. But some of them can move very quickly and can be in the majors as soon as next season. So I do think it'll be a pretty fun exercise.
Starting point is 00:16:22 Let's take that break, and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back, Fantasy Baseball today. Let's hit the news and notes from the weekend. And we did learn that some of the stud pitchers selected to the All-Star game will not be pitching in said All-Star game. And this one is at least a little scary. Jacob Mizierowski was Scratch Sunday due to right arm fatigue. He will not start the first series out of the All-Star break as well. He is expected to throw on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:16:50 He won't pitch in the All-Star game. Here's what the Miz had to say, quote, Nothing Crazy just didn't bounce back. A little quick on the days off between, but nothing crazy. We heard something similar from Kyle Harrison last week. Now it's not the same exact injury. Every pitcher is built differently. But look, the Mizz,
Starting point is 00:17:09 throws 105 miles per hour. So obviously this is always in the back your mind as something very scary that could pop up with Jacob Mizirowski. It's a wait and see for now, Chris, but it's at least a little scary. It's definitely a little scary.
Starting point is 00:17:25 How scary it is, to be determined, but yeah, you're talking about okay, let's say he he's fine, but he throws two miles an hour less hard. Well, he could probably still be really good, but, you know, he's taking such a big step forward with his control this season,
Starting point is 00:17:42 how much of that can he sustain? Like, it's just, there are unknowns, and any time, things go so wrong so quickly for pitchers that any time you're introducing an uncertain variable, I think you have to be a little concerned because the difference, even for super talented pitchers between dominating and being pretty bad, can often be very, very slim.
Starting point is 00:18:06 And so we have no, there's no sense that this is a serious injury. We have no reason to believe that this is going to derail his season, but it could. So I don't think there's anything actionable here. I definitely don't think you should trade Jacob Mizirowski right now. But it's, I think it would be silly not to be at least a little bit concerned. Cam Schlutler will not pitch in the All-Star game as well.
Starting point is 00:18:35 Both he and the Yankees assured that he's healthy. He just wants extra rest. during the All-Star break. So let's hope that's all it is for Cam Scholar. Who is? Look, he had that awesome start against the Razor he bounced back. But he's looked a little bit more human lately. We'll get to Cam Schlettler a little bit later on.
Starting point is 00:18:51 The Miz isn't the only Brewer's pitcher dealing with something. I mentioned the name, but Kyle Harrison was placed on the aisle Saturday with left forearm tightness. And he originally said that he was dealing with pain in the back of his elbow. And obviously, this is scarier, right? like having a having forearm tightness and the fact that he's been pitching through it
Starting point is 00:19:11 that was always the weirdest part to me that like he's dealing with an armed thing but the Brewers just had him continue to pitch through it like if we were a couple of weeks out from the All-Star break why didn't they just shut them down a couple of weeks ago? Especially for a team that has pitching depth it's not like the the Brewers are the Marlins
Starting point is 00:19:28 where they had two healthy starting pitchers like it this seems you know Pennywise pound foolish, right? Like you're, you're letting a guy pitch in the short term and there could be long-term ramifications. We don't know. Like, it's possible they had him testing done and then just nothing showed up and it was fine, but it's certainly not what you want to see. I do have a question. Does, does forearm, is it just the front of your arm or like could this part like under your arm, but still in the forearm? Like, I don't know what the forearm. Like when I think for him, I think
Starting point is 00:20:05 the top of the front of like the interesting because I always think of like this big meaty kind of flesh of your arm. I always think of that as your forearm but I think it's probably just the whole thing leading up to the wrist I'm sure there's a name for those two bones but I don't know what connects your elbow to your wrist is just humorous your forearm but is that why they call it the
Starting point is 00:20:27 funny bone no I don't think so but yeah forearm covers a large majority of your arm and currently Kyle Harrison is dealing with tightness so Humorous is the upper bow. It's not great there for Kyle Harrison. Emerson Hancock left early on Sunday after being struck in the hand by a comebacker. And of course, everyone's light bulbs are going off thinking about Kate Anderson getting called up to the Mariners, which, look, could still always be a possibility. But as of now, x-rays are negative here for any injury regarding the hand of Emerson Hancock.
Starting point is 00:20:59 So hopefully it's not bad because, look, to Emerson Hancock's credit, like he has had a breakout season and it's, obviously been great for him. From a fantasy perspective, obviously we want to see Kate Anderson get the call and what he could do. And there are still other avenues to that happening because we also heard rumors that the Mariners are shopping
Starting point is 00:21:17 some of their pitching depth, most notably Luis Castillo. So there are countless teams that could use more starting pitching. I don't think it would be very hard for them to find a taker. I think Castillo is either in a contract year or maybe has one more year left on that contract.
Starting point is 00:21:33 So it probably wouldn't be too hard to move it. like the Cubs instantly come to mind. They've had so many injuries this season. Like, why wouldn't they go out and trade for someone like Louise Castillo? And if they do that, then we're getting a real look at, you know, Kate Anderson joining this rotation. But I think it's sooner rather than later. One way or another, Kate Anderson, I think by the time we get to August,
Starting point is 00:21:54 at some point, he will be in this Mariners rotation. I, does he need two people to get out of the way? Like, I assume they don't want to go with a six-man rotation. And that's why they're shopping, Castillo. That was my read of it, but I'm not sure. Yeah, I mean, they've been kind of going with this six-man rotation. Yeah. They announced earlier in the week that they're going to do a piggyback thing,
Starting point is 00:22:14 and then Logan Gilbert is so good that they can't do a piggyback with him. So I think ideally they would not want to go with a six-man, but I've said this for months now. Like, the Mariners need to know if Kate Anderson is one of their three or four best pitchers before the postseason. They absolutely need to find that out. Like, they can go on a serious run in the playoffs just given the pitching that they have on the team. And Kate Anderson could be like the second or third best pitcher on this team right
Starting point is 00:22:40 now. We just don't know because we haven't seen it. So they have to find that out. Whether it's a six-man rotation or Emerson Hancock's a long reliever in the bullpen. Like I think it's going to happen very soon. I don't know that, but that's just that's a hunch. Call it a hunch there with Kate Anderson. We did have a rough go of A's injuries. Nick Kurtz was placed in the aisle Saturday with a right thumb capsule sprain. And I didn't see much in terms of a timeline, Chris. I was trying to read some articles on nlb.com. Do you have anything here on a right thumb capsule screen? I have not seen anything specific on this one, but yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:23:16 It's always concerning when you have the thumb injuries just because even when you're able to play through it, does it affect your grip strength? Does it affect your ability to hit? It's always questionable. Yeah. Nick Kurtz obviously has been one of, if not the best, first basement in fantasy this season, so there is no replacing him. but as we've talked a lot about, first base is pretty loaded.
Starting point is 00:23:39 So if you're looking for a replacement, there's Bryce Eldridge, there's Curtis Mead, Royce Lewis, and even to a lesser extent, Jake Berger and Josh Bell, who have done some things this year, but specifically those top three. Eldridge has been good. The underlying stuff is awesome. Curtis Mead, two more homers this weekend. Royce Lewis hit another home run, so there is no shortage of first base replacements right now. And Zach Gelloff also went on the IL on Friday with a right knee laceration.
Starting point is 00:24:03 that doesn't sound too serious. I would expect him back pretty early into the second half. Jacob de Grom was scratched from his start Sunday due to a mild left glute strain and manager Skip Schumacher said that DeGrom will be available to pitch right after the All-Star break. We heard in DeGrom's most recent start that he was dealing with a hip slash leg thing,
Starting point is 00:24:22 so this was that. They opted to give him some rest going into the All-Star break. We have some Dodgers pitcher update. Shohay Otani was scratched from his pitching start Friday due to continued irritation in his left knee. He still started each game this weekend as a hitter. He homered on both Friday and Sunday. Otani did say he believes he'll be able to resume pitching
Starting point is 00:24:42 right after the all-star break. Edwin Diaz made his first rehab appearance at Singalee on Saturday. He struck out two in a scoreless inning. He threw 11 pitches and his fastball set 96 to 98 miles per hour. Mostly rostered at this point. He's 86% rostered on CBS, but I think Edwin Diaz, early on in the second half, assuming no setbacks,
Starting point is 00:25:04 I would expect them back pretty early in the second half. And then Blake Snell will start his rehab assignment on Saturday of next week. So it's going to be a pretty lengthy buildup, probably early August, I would think, for Blake's now? Yeah, I would think, yeah,
Starting point is 00:25:21 maybe something like the first or second week, like the latter half of the first week of August or the first half of the second week if he gets, I mean, scuba only got. like one rehab start, but he was a lot more built up already. And they just needed him so much more. Yeah, Blake's now had only made, he only made one start before this injury, right?
Starting point is 00:25:43 And it was only like a four-inning start, if I'm remembering correctly. So I would guess Snell's going to be looking at three rehab starts before he comes back. That's just a guess, but yeah. Cue up the Grand Theft Auto San Andreas meme. Here we go again. Nick Lodolo was placed in the aisle Sunday after developing a blister on his left index finger during Saturday start. His season was delayed until May 8th due to that same issue.
Starting point is 00:26:07 And I'm just not sure he's ever been right this year, Chris. Like the location plus, the walks, he hasn't been getting whiffs. I think this blister has just been an ongoing issue all year for Nicolodolo. I agree with that, yep. Yep. And I think in leagues where there's limited IL spots or if you play in the NFBC, I think you probably let go of Nicodole. Even if he's back in a couple of weeks or a month,
Starting point is 00:26:33 I just don't really have confidence that he's going to look like the Nicolidolo of last year. So, yeah, just not much confidence there with him. The Pirates transferred Connor Griffin to the 60-day IL. He's expected to miss eight to 10 weeks with a torn tendon in his left ring finger. He's not eligible to return until September 4th at the earliest. Speaking of young phenom shortstops,
Starting point is 00:26:54 the Cardinals and JJ Weatherholt are in agreement on a long-term extension. shortstop. Notice I included the position that he plays. I mean, Jeff Passon and like, I don't know if you saw this, Chris. Him telling the guy to stop gooning or whatever.
Starting point is 00:27:10 I did see that, yes. Oh, man. Maybe the guy's an Arsenal fan. Yeah. I mean, I think that's exactly what it is, but it doesn't make it less funny regardless. Yes, JJ Weatherholt. So according to John Heyman, the deal is for eight years,
Starting point is 00:27:23 112 and a half million, and could max out at 132 million here. for JJ Weatherhold. Well deserved. This has been a common theme this year. Lots of teams trying to lock up their prospects long term. Ahead of the, you know, CBA negotiations just because we don't really know what's going to happen
Starting point is 00:27:44 in terms of like service time and prospects in the future. So a lot of teams have been locking up their prospects now, which I think overall is a good thing. Hey, remember Corbyn Burns. He was cleared to begin a throwing program on Friday. he's recovering from Tommy John surgery and a terrorist major strain in his shoulder. He's 32% rostered. Christy,
Starting point is 00:28:05 have any interest here in stashing Corbyn Burns? Yeah, so I wrote for Sunday's newsletter, kind of a second half stash column instead of like the waiver wire. And he was one of the pitchers. I think there were like eight pitchers on there. But yeah, if you have the roster space,
Starting point is 00:28:20 the IL spot for him, Corbyn Burns obviously is a guy who has been an ace. I would guess we still don't see him until like September. maybe late August. And so, you know, how stretched out is he going to be? How, you know, he is further removed from the Tommy John surgery at this point. I think he's going to be like 15, 16 months at this point. Oh, more because he was like June of last year.
Starting point is 00:28:43 So he should be, you know, pretty far past it. But it's also a shoulder injury. So it's just there's a lot. It's, I would say the chances of carbon burns making a big impact are pretty slim, but non-zero and the impact could be big. Dave Roberts said Friday that Will Smith's neck injury could linger into August. He's been out since June 11th with that injury. Ryan Helsley was diagnosed with inflammation around the UCL in his right elbow.
Starting point is 00:29:11 The Orioles are optimistic. He'll be back before the end of the season. Brandon Woodruff was transferred to the 60-day IL with that shoulder injury. I think he's a pretty easy drop, Chris, if you need the spot. That's Ryan Halsley. Brandon Woodruff. Brandon Woodruff, yes. Boba Chet missed all three games this weekend
Starting point is 00:29:29 as he battles general leg and right ankle soreness Vinnie Pee, Vinnie Pasquantino was activated on Friday and he was in the lineup Saturday and Sunday last I checked he didn't do very much but 77% rostered there for Vinny P mostly just like a corner infielder at this point
Starting point is 00:29:46 and lots of other intriguing options that have surpassed him at this point Blaze Alexander was diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his left hand after being hit by a pitch on Sunday the Pirates and the Wires and the Wants and the White Sox made a trade on Friday. The Pirates received Jacob Gonzalez and reliever Brandon Isert in exchange for minor league reliever Jaden Woods and the 34th pick in Saturday's draft.
Starting point is 00:30:10 The White Sox used that pick to draft Landon Tomey, who is the son of former Hallfamer Jim Tomey. And I think he's like a Hall of Famer. Yeah, what I say. Not former Hall of Fame. Yeah, he's a whole favorite. That's, yeah, that's a real thing. Former White Sox legend for yes. Jim Tomey.
Starting point is 00:30:25 I think he might have spent like one year. I think he's also like a, he has some kind of role in their front office. I was reading about it. I think it's like a whatever. One of those like special coordinators or something like a four year. He had 134 home runs with the white socks. That is. I would have taken the under on that total.
Starting point is 00:30:44 I do not have much recollection of it. I remember him on the Phillies much more than the White Sox. Obviously I remember him with the Guardians. Yeah. Jacob Gonzalez, by the way, didn't start any of the games with the Pirates this weekend, but he could fill in at shortstop with Connor Griffin. on the IL. Icert is a left-handed reliever. The surface level numbers look bad, but
Starting point is 00:31:02 underlying stuff looks much better. Chris, you see either of these two factoring in Jacob Gonzalez with the pirates or maybe even Brandon Isert working into like the saves mix. I mean, they need someone to step up in the late innings there. I still think they're going to trade for a closer, but maybe, you know, Mason Montgomery has got a save, I think, on Saturday, but I don't think it was a clean one. Both him and Soto picked up saves in the double header, so that's why Montgomery was using the second game because Soto got to save in the first game.
Starting point is 00:31:34 Okay, I was at the pool, but I was watching on my phone because I know how to celebrate a pool birthday party by watching Pirates games on my phone. Yeah, he could factor in, but I think that's just an ambiguous bullpen for now until, frankly, until someone pitches well enough to take the job. I really think anyone there could do it.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Because I don't think any of them are necessarily terrible, but I don't think there's like one standout talent in that bullpen either. And they're all lefties, which is weird too, right? It's Soto Montgomery and Brandon Isert. They're all left-handed pitchers. Like Dennis Santana's there, but he's had a bad season. They have been linked to Luke Weaver, which I think would make a ton of sense.
Starting point is 00:32:18 He has closing experience, and he's been really good this year with the Mets. So I think Luke Weaver will be traded somewhere, whether or not he winds up on a team where he is going to be the closer. That remains to be seen. But I think he's a pretty interesting, like, ahead of the trade deadline save stash there in Luke Weaver. The Nationals called up prospect to Abamelik Ortiz on Sunday. I had all these notes written up,
Starting point is 00:32:39 and then they sent him back down on Sunday. So, yeah, he was up for one game. Good job. He got called up and I was like, oh, that's interesting. Where's he going to play? And then Syracuse? No, Indianapolis. Where is their triple A?
Starting point is 00:32:52 I can't even remember. It used to be Syracuse, but I think that's the Mets now. Is it like Rochester or something? That sounds like the Rochester Red Wings. Yeah, Nationals triple A team. The Rochester Red Wings. Look at us, Chris. Abamelich Ortiz, by the way, if he does get called up again,
Starting point is 00:33:10 he's hit for a good amount of power and like the stack cast stuff looks pretty good, but he got sent back down, so I don't think it matters for now. In so many ways, he reminds you, oh, who's your guy? your guy on the rangers Willie Calhoun? Willie Calhoun. He reminds me of Willie Calhoun in a lot of ways. He's a stout guy.
Starting point is 00:33:30 Makes a lot of contact, hits the ball hard, but production's not quite there. This is probably the weirdest poll that I have right here. This is a Willie Calhoun, Cal Drogo Game of Thrones Bobblehead that I have. I thought it was like Conan the Barbarian? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:47 Calhoun Drogo is what it says on the front. There you go. Yeah, I have these weird players that I kind of latch on to, and Willie Calhoun was one of them where I just, I always thought he was going to be good. I still have guys like that. Like Lars Neupar is one of those names where I just, I always believe he's going to be good.
Starting point is 00:34:01 Josh Lowe is another one. It's just, look, man, I'm still waiting on Jeremy Hermita to break out. Others who went on the aisle this weekend, Zach Gallin with right elbow inflammation, Mike Yistremski with left elbow inflammation. And the home run derby is set for Monday night. We have the two home field.
Starting point is 00:34:19 heroes here, Kyle Schwerber and Bryce Harper. Also with Junior Camerro, Mutataka Morikami, Jack Caglione, Wilson Catreras, Ben Rice, and Jordan Walker. So no shortage of Exe Velocity. It's going to be insane. Do you have a pick here, Chris? Who are you going with? It's hard to argue against Schwerber.
Starting point is 00:34:41 If I was going to, I think I would go Cags or Murakami. Those feel like the fun picks. We know Murakami can't hit Velocami. but he's going to get fast batting practice balls. And then Kags just, he's a freak athlete. He's young. You know, maybe he won't get tired. I think, you know, I want guys who pull the ball as well.
Starting point is 00:35:04 That's my one concern with like common arrows. He does pull the ball well, but he hits a lot of like opposite field homers too. And that's hard to do. I think he made it to the finals last year, right? Did he? Derby? That could be right. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:16 Yeah. I might be making that up, but I feel like he went pretty far into it. Yeah, as of now, Kyle Schorber is the betting favorite to win the home run derby. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Ben Rice plus 850 is the second longest odds. Like, I don't know. To throw those sprinklers. Yeah, plus 1,300.
Starting point is 00:35:34 Yeah. I think that that's not a bad one. That's not a bad one. Toss, like, you know, a couple bucks on it. I like that one. All right, before we hit our final break, let's quickly talk about Paul Skeens' his latest start. Again, we are following this vlog.
Starting point is 00:35:48 thing and his performance very closely, obviously, because he was one of the top three pitchers drafted in fantasy this year and went through a recent rough patch that kind of coincided with his velocity and spin rate dropping off. But he had an okay start this weekend against the Brewers, five and a third innings, three hits, two runs, seven strikeouts to one walk, still not overly dominant.
Starting point is 00:36:08 He had nine whiffs on 82 pitches, but more notably, Chris, the velocity was down again. His fastball averaged 96.1 miles per hour, which is down nearly a full mile per hour from where it's at on the season. The spin rate also down 107 RPM compared to his season's average. So I'm not worried, but I'm not not worried.
Starting point is 00:36:31 It's something we just have to continue to monitor. It's a little concerning. Yeah, I'm not too concerned, but I can't say there's no reason to be concerned. I'm just, I think he's, I think he's fine. Like, I don't know. Like, what does concern mean?
Starting point is 00:36:53 Like, is he going to fall apart and not be useful? I have zero concern that he's not going to be useful. Is he not going to be one of the three best pitchers in fantasy? Okay, maybe. You know, I could see, like, a world where he's the 15th best pitcher in fantasy or something. But I, that's not, I'm not worried about that. I mean, I'll say it out loud. I don't want it to happen, but it's velocity and spin rate's trending down as the season goes on.
Starting point is 00:37:17 a guy that's thrown at 98, 99, 100 miles per hour regularly for the past couple of years. I mean, my mind instantly goes to like, he could be hurt. Is he going to be hurt? Like, is he going to get hurt? I don't know. Guys get hurt, you know? Like, we don't have any, we don't have any tangible proof that he is hurt. We have his velocity declining, which sometimes just happens.
Starting point is 00:37:40 So I just, I don't want to say like, oh, yeah, you should be trading Paul Skeen. So I, in that regard, I'm just not going to do anything with it, you know? Well, that was my next question, so I guess you kind of answered it. But if you can get a, I don't know that you'll get the full like draft day return, like late first round value for him just because like, you know, and that's why I don't think it's worth it. His overall, like he has a 357 ERA, which is good, but it's not, you know,
Starting point is 00:38:07 he was sub two ERA his first two years. So he clearly has not been as effective. And he's had this run over the past six weeks or so where he's looked more human. but if you can get like 90% return a top, I don't know, top 12 starting pitcher and maybe another piece like, would you entertain it? Maybe the problem is the peripherals are identical to where they've been the past three years.
Starting point is 00:38:32 And we went over this. Like his fastball effectiveness is still there. Yeah, like there's just not any, like the argument would be that it has co-that a drop in velocity has coincided with a drop in effectiveness. However, one, the drop in effectiveness was the leader. It's not like his fastball started dropping and then he started pitching worse. He started pitching worse and then his fastball velocity started dropping.
Starting point is 00:38:59 You know, so it's like, I don't know if there's causality there. And overall, he still looks exactly as good as he did overall at the stuff we care about, right? Not ERA, but we know ERA has very little predictive value. it has less predictive value than the peripherals. And the peripherals are all exactly as good as they've been in the past. So I just, I can't say there's no reason to be concerned. I would basically have to get face value to move him. I think that's fair.
Starting point is 00:39:29 Yeah, I don't have Paul Skeens anywhere, so I'm not in this predicament. But if I did have him coming off, you know, two bounce back starts, two run runs in each, I would at least, I wouldn't make it known to the league. I wouldn't like put him on the trade block. But I would, you know, maybe text a couple of people and see, Like, all right, what can I get for Paul Skeens? And if it's fair value, I might entertain that. Whereas, you know, two months ago,
Starting point is 00:39:52 I wouldn't have even thought about trading Paul Skeens. But at least now, I think I would entertain it a little bit. Let's take that final break. When we return, we'll get into the waiver options, the waiver standouts from the weekend. Other pitchers who are trending up, we'll do all that right after this. Welcome back, Fantasy Baseball today,
Starting point is 00:40:09 and we will dive into the waiver wire pitchers from the weekend. and two recent hire-in names that we've talked a lot about. They're still out there in about a third of CBS leagues. Cade Cavali, a quality start in his return from suspension against the Yankees. Six innings, two runs, five strikeouts to one walk, only six whiffs on 85 pitches, and he gave up nine hard hits in this game. I leaned towards that awesome start at the Red Sox just kind of being an outlier. He's still usable.
Starting point is 00:40:38 Like, his numbers are okay. He gets strikeouts. Like, he's kind of been up and down. The overall numbers still look pretty good. The underlying stuff, solid as well for Cade Cavali. And then Gage Jump, bounce back at the White Sox. Do I have it? Nope, don't have it loaded up.
Starting point is 00:40:53 Gage Jump, bounce back at the White Sox. Five and two-thirds, one run, seven strikeouts to two walks. 14 whiffs on 86 pitches, nine of those on the fastball. And he did throw 69% of his pitch's first strike. So obviously his last two starts were terrible, but this was a nice bounce back here. Chris, do you think either or both of these guys need to be rostered? Must roster, Cade Cavali, Gage, Jump.
Starting point is 00:41:19 I think it's easier to get there with Jump, even though Cavali has had the more concrete examples of his upside showing. We've seen two double-digit strikeout starts in a row and then a 13 strikeout start, if I'm remembering correctly. But he followed up the double-digit strikeouts with pretty mediocre performance. performances. And I want to say the double-digit strikeout start was this this wasn't his first start after that, right? No, he had a start after the Red Sox start. And it wasn't nearly as good. No, he left early because of like dehydration or something.
Starting point is 00:41:55 Yeah, but like he is certainly capable of these big starts. He's got that great knuckle curve, but I just I think he's just okay. Like he's a high strikeout pitcher occasionally, but not a great pitcher. I think Gage Jump could be. So I think there's a little more upside there. And there are still pitchers that are rostered in more leagues than these two that I would be okay dropping, I think, for either one. Like Will Warren bounce back here on Sunday, but he's kind of falling off.
Starting point is 00:42:28 And I just overall don't trust it. I think I'd rather just take a shot on, I think Cavali and Jump just have more upside than Will Warren. I think I'd be alright making that swap. Yeah, I think that's fine. even someone like Tanner Bivey like he's been okay but just don't see enough there
Starting point is 00:42:43 he's been really effective but I feel like it's three strikeouts every start yeah Ryan Weathers is another one where he's looked more human lately and does he have a spot in the rotation long term uh
Starting point is 00:42:57 like Shane Bosz 76% Andrew Abbott 74 Noah Cameron is one of those ones that I think is always pretty easy to drop Noah Cameron has been getting more strikeouts lately I think seven strikeouts in three of his last four, three of his last five. I think he only had two seven strikeout starts before that. But I think on the whole, he's pretty fringy either way.
Starting point is 00:43:18 So I think Boz is always okay to have around, also totally okay to drop kind of guy. So I think Cameron's in that boat as well. And Warren probably is there too. Two waiver wire pitchers who look like they are trending up, Peter Lambert, another strong outing this one at the Rangers six innings of one. run ball, seven strikeouts to one walk. And he keeps on using this kitchen sink approach, seven different pitches in this one,
Starting point is 00:43:44 between 5% and 25% usage. He's down to a 314 ERA, a 112 whip. His last seven starts, 243 ERA 101 whip. He's 68% rostered. He's also a spark for those who play in points leagues. And Jack Flaherty has been pitching much better since returning. He was at the Phillies, six innings, two hits, two runs,
Starting point is 00:44:04 six strikeouts to three walks. He had 16 whiffs on 80s. pitches and three starts since coming back. 108 ERA.78 whip 10.8K per nine here for Jack Flaherty. 53% rostered. Chris, how do you feel about these two? Flerty and Peter Lambert. It feels like they are trending up.
Starting point is 00:44:24 They've been doing some solid things. Yeah, part of the problem with both of these guys is neither of them is likely to make another start for what? Seven more days, probably another week from now at best. and so I don't know what their next matchup is going to be and I can't really say Peter Lambert or Jack Flaherty as someone you have to roster regardless of what their next matchup is. I think it's probably if they have a good next matchup,
Starting point is 00:44:51 yeah, I think you could hang around, keep them hanging around, but I don't think they are must roster by any means. Would you take either Flaherty or Lambert over the previous two gauge jump and Cade Cavalli? No. All right, thoughts on these three, Brandon Young turned in a quality start against the Royals, seven plus innings, three runs, five strikeouts to one walk.
Starting point is 00:45:13 And last nine starts, he has a 296 IRA 128 whip. Underline numbers, not exactly buying it for Brandon Young. Shane Drohan, a quality start at the Pirates, six in a third, three runs, six strikeouts to zero walks. 17 whiffs on 83 pitches, definitely gets some attention there. 51% rostered, and he's a spark for those who play in points leagues. again, that is Shane Drowen. And Noah Schultz, a solid outing against the athletics, five innings, one run, four strikeouts to zero walks.
Starting point is 00:45:43 The result was solid, Chris, but I didn't see enough in the underlying numbers here for Schultz. Like the velocity was down. He still gave up hard contact. But anything to stand out for those three, Brandon Young, Shane Drowen, and Noah Schultz. It's still not there for Noah Schultz. I think he remains interesting worth watching, but I need to see some double-digit-wiff effort. from him. You know, this stuff is good, but he hasn't been missing bats with it.
Starting point is 00:46:09 He actually did have a high chase rate in this one, but which has been a big problem for him, but guys made contact, which, hey, that helps, right? Like, if you can generate weak contact on pitches out of the strikes zone, that's a skill too, but it's not a skill he's shown much before this start. He's at a very low chase rate. And so I need to see more. Brandon Young, I know the results have been good, but I don't really think there's anything there. It's basically the slider's awesome and everything else looks pretty bad for him. So I don't think it's likely to sustain. Again, I think it probably matters.
Starting point is 00:46:43 How roster will Brandon Young is is almost entirely dependent on what his next matchup is. And I don't know that. We don't know that until they set their rotation. Drohan is kind of interesting. He's got some traits on his fastball. He's a brewer's pitcher, so of course he does. Missed a lot of bats in this one. He's shown that kind of upside.
Starting point is 00:47:03 That's what we're chasing. Sparp. I think in a head-to-head points league. Shane Dron should be, I like to have like three sparts if I can and just play matchups with them. I think he can be one of those three. He feels to me like if there is another wave of
Starting point is 00:47:21 waiver-wire pitchers that we can't stop talking about. I think Shane Drowan could be part of that group. I think so too, yeah. I don't really think the other guys here are likely to be part of that, but I think Shane Drin could. Yeah. Again, like 17 whiffs on 83 pitches is just massive and he has a 12.2% swinging strike rate on the season,
Starting point is 00:47:40 a 324-5th, 336 XERA. Kyle Harrison's hurt. Who knows what the Mizz? Like, I think he has a spot in their rotation. I am, if you picked up Shane Dron for the two-star week, I would just be holding on to him after this past week. A deeper name that stood out on Sunday, Zach Thornton with the Mets.
Starting point is 00:47:58 He looked great against the Red Sox, seven shutout, two hits, two walks, five strikeouts here. He had nine whiffs on 82 pitches. It's kind of an unconventional way that he goes about it. Big left-handed pitcher, throws a lot of cutters. His foreseem velocity is pretty average. Sweeper looks pretty good. Numbers in the minors are like he gets strikeouts,
Starting point is 00:48:20 but he also walks too many. But in a deeper league, Chris, there's not much out there. Like, it's a mystery bag. I'm at least a little intrigued by Zach Thornton. there are probably some NL only leagues where he hasn't been added yet and I think you should add him. I think in 15 team leagues there are still like we've talked about some guys who might be available in 15 team leagues so far. So I wouldn't run out to grab at him yet. You know, you look at the minor league track record.
Starting point is 00:48:46 It was a 4ERA before his promotion across AA and AAA this season. Some strikeouts, a lot of walks. I think it's more likely than not the Zach. Thornton's just an average pitcher, and that's probably more valuable in real life than for fantasy. One thing he does have going in his favor is that they've already come out and said that he will start the second half of the season in their rotation. So the Mets are pretty far out of things. I think they're kind of in evaluation mode for the rest of the season, and I think Zach Thornton will be part of that evaluation. Anything here with these two, or did they just get the Rockies on the road? Tyler Malley
Starting point is 00:49:23 and Trevor McDonald, good results, but their season-long numbers obviously don't look very good. Anything here with those two? Malley had like a two-something ERA last season, right? Yeah, and he's so awful this year. He's been terrible, and I thought it was kind of a good landing spot going to San Francisco, but he just hasn't been any good. The splitter has not been working for him as well as it has in the past.
Starting point is 00:49:46 I wouldn't be surprised if he was useful in the second half, especially at home, but again, I need to know what the next matchup is. If it's at home against a bad offense, yeah, I, I think Tyler Malley could be useful, but I don't think he's someone you go out and add because of that. And Trevor McDonald, kind of the same thing, except doesn't even have the track record of Tyler Malley.
Starting point is 00:50:11 Here's what's so interesting about just pictures on a year-to-year basis. His ex-ERA last year and this year are basically identical. Last year, he had a 218. This year, it's 531. Yep, that is, um, ERA tells you very little about the world. recent waiver wire names who hit a bump in the road this weekend. My guy, Ian Seymour, a rough outing Sunday against the Mariners.
Starting point is 00:50:35 Three and a third. Six hits, six runs, five of those earned. Three walks, three strikeouts. I didn't see anything too alarming in this start. Like, he gave up only four hard hits. 62% of his pitches for strikes. Like, that number could have been higher, but I didn't see anything that bad that stood out to me for Seymour outside of the line itself.
Starting point is 00:50:56 And J.T. Ginn got destroyed at the White. White Sox, four and a third, six hits, eight runs, three walks, two homers allowed. His velocity was down again. Last start, he blamed it on being sick. I don't know if maybe there's a little bit of a carryover effect from like still being sick maybe. Yeah, possibly. So I'm going to watch with that velocity. Are those two guys that you think you have to hold on to even after these bad starts, Seymour and J.T.
Starting point is 00:51:20 Ginn? I think Ginn less so than Seymour. I think you absolutely have to hold Seymour. I agree. but I think certainly you, but I'm there with you. Like I really like Ian Seymour. And so there's a little bit of like,
Starting point is 00:51:35 eh, who cares? It's one bad start. But I do think when you look into the start, it looks like he didn't pitch well. And we've talked a lot about that where when guys go through stretches where they just execute really well, but there aren't like underlying skills changes, that is,
Starting point is 00:51:53 that would seem to be less sustainable. And I think the opposite is true. Sometimes guys just don't pitch well, but there's nothing there to it. You know, there's nothing to be concerned about or think it'll happen moving forward. It may,
Starting point is 00:52:08 but I don't see anything like any glaring red flags for Ian Seymour. Again, I think he's a little less talented than Ian Seymour. Like, I think he's pretty good because he, you get a decent amount of whiffs, you get a lot of ground balls, and you just kind of hope that that works well enough.
Starting point is 00:52:24 but I don't think J.T. Gens is a great player. I did think it was interesting. You know, sometimes when you're going through, like on the game feed on baseball, Savant, when they have every game on the schedule, if you do box score on the drop-down and then go to a next game, it'll have the box score for the next game. If you do the player breakdown,
Starting point is 00:52:43 which gives you the stat-cast data for the next game, it'll give you that for the next game. And I opened the player breakdown part for the White Sox A's game, and I saw 8.000, 18 whiffs for J.T. Ginn, five wifts for Noah Schultz for Noah Schultz was bad. Nope. Exact opposite. J.T. Ginn was terrible. And Noah Schultz was good. So, wiffs aren't everything. Yep. Uh, waiver wire hitters from the weekend want to highlight Brian Rochia, who is turning things back on after a rough June. He hit his eighth home run on Sunday
Starting point is 00:53:14 in 11 July games. He's hitting 317 with three homers, 10 RBI, a steel, 910 OPS. June was not kind. He hit only 222 with a 595 OPS. Brian Rokio's 70% roster, he has second base and shortstop. I think that number's probably right, Chris. I think he's usable as a middle infielder, but I don't think he's worth rostering in like a head-to-head shallow type format. I think it's more likely 70% is too high than too low. All right, we haven't talked about this name in a while.
Starting point is 00:53:43 That is Braden Montgomery who had a big game on Sunday, two-for-four with his third home run for RBI, mostly an everyday player. and digging in the plate discipline is solid, but the quality of contact just has not been good. His ground ball rate is 61%. I'm not writing him off. Obviously, he's a very young player. He comes with a lot of prospect pedigree.
Starting point is 00:54:05 He very well could have a huge second half. He could continue to like, you know, kind of just be mediocre and then have an awesome season next year. But 50% rostered, I think that number is probably a little bit high based on what we've seen so far. Yeah, it feels a little high. If you're, you know, the nice thing about the All-Star break is it gives you an opportunity to not worry so much about what your immediate needs are. And you can, you know, drop a Braden Montgomery and add, you know, maybe add Joshua Baez or Luis Lara's only, he was only 38% today.
Starting point is 00:54:40 I assume that'll go up once waivers run. So, you know, I do think you can take advantage of that if you're not because you have, you know, presumably just the partial week coming up. to worry about. Corner infielders, Royce Lewis, two for four with his 10th home run on Saturday. 32 games since returning. He's hitting 266 with seven homers, three steals and OPS over 800.
Starting point is 00:55:03 He's 56% rostered. Curtis Mead hit two more homers this weekend. He homered on Sunday, despite not starting against a righty and Will Warren. He's 64% roster, has first, second, and third eligibility. Ezekiel Duran is picking things back up in July. He hit two home runs on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:55:21 He had a terrible June, but so far in July, 297, four homers, one steal, 963 OPS. He's eligible everywhere except for catcher. And then Nolan Aronado homered on Saturday. And he also had a bad June and is picking things back up last 12 games. 279, four homers, 11 runs scored. Chris, how would you rank these for Royce Lewis, Curtis Mead, Ezekiel Doran, and Nolan Aronado? That's the order. And Royce Lewis, that's 56% roster, just feels white.
Starting point is 00:55:51 under-rastered to me because he's hitting. At least you could use him at third base. Even if first base is loaded, you can use him at third. First base or third base or corner infield. Since returning, his pace is 260 average, 36 homers, 99 runs, 90 RBI, I believe, and 15 steals. So, yeah, I think
Starting point is 00:56:10 I think Roy's Lewis, I'm not going to say he needs to be 100% roster, but I think it's pretty close. And Curtis Mead, 64% still feels too low. I know he's not playing every day, quite. He's playing like against 70% of varieties and that's annoying. I think he's good. I think he's just good. All right. I do have some names in five outfielder leagues. Lars
Starting point is 00:56:31 Neupar one for two with a sock in the shoe on Saturday. He has started against every right-handed pitcher since returning. But just six of 11 lefties. It's not terrible, but he's not an everyday player. Herberto Hernandez from your Marlins, Chris. He is hitting for big power lately. He has five home runs and an OPS over 1,300 so far in July. And Tristan Peters hit for the cycle on Friday, 4 for 4 with his sixth home run for RBI.
Starting point is 00:57:00 That is All-Star Tristan Peters to you. Do you have any interest in these names in five outfielder league? Tristan Peters, Herberto Hernandez, and Lars Nupar. Newpar is by far the most interesting of these guys. I don't think the other two are particularly interesting at all, but Newpar clearly talented. it's just questions of does he get that everyday playing time
Starting point is 00:57:27 or is it still more like 80 to 85% of the games moving forward? Can he tap into the upside? Because it's been a long time of, well, he hits the ball really hard and he's got good plate this plan. And then you look up and it's like, that's a 750 OPS, you know? So I have some hope for Lars Neupar,
Starting point is 00:57:46 but it's not a guarantee for sure. Yeah, I think he's the most interesting of these three But you know, Hernandez, he hits the ball really hard His stack cast stuff is great. 91.9 average EV 12% barrel rate. Expected stats look pretty good. I just wonder if like he gets consistent run with the Marlins Like maybe we actually have a pretty good power hitter on our hands here.
Starting point is 00:58:11 Yeah, I mean, I guess he was a 785 OPS guy last year. He's had 522 plate appearances in the majors with 23 homers. It's not terrible. So yeah, maybe I'm underselling him a little bit. If he got full-time playing time, maybe there could be 25 homer pop there. It could be an Elliot Ramos light kind of situation, not an exciting player,
Starting point is 00:58:32 but a pretty interesting one. Yeah, that's a fair point. All right, I do have some deeper infielders here as well. Thai France, two for three with his 11th home run on Saturday. Last 19 games, he's hitting 317 with five homers, 14 RBI. Jake Cronoworth recently returned from the IL and has looked pretty good with the Padres. 11 July games, he's hitting 316 with two homers and two steals. Henry Davis is picking things up as of late.
Starting point is 00:58:58 He's getting to play more with Andy Rodriguez on the IL. Last 12 games, 290, 3 homers, 10 RBI, and a steal. And Tim Tawa just had a huge weekend against the Dodgers out of nowhere. He had a sock in his shoe on Friday, three more hits on Saturday, another home run on Sunday. He has started four straight and five of six. They DFA'd Pavin Smith last week. So Tim Tawa getting some run here. Very deep names, Chris, but do any of these stand out to you?
Starting point is 00:59:27 Thai France, Jake Cronoward, Henry Davis, and Tim Tawa. I think the biggest impact here might just be the Henry Davis thing just because that could be an obstacle to Andy Rodriguez getting everyday playing time. And, you know, if Henry Davis keeps hitting well, and when Andy Rodriguez gets back, maybe it remains a 50-50 split, which would be annoying. Other than that,
Starting point is 00:59:51 my only thought is if you were ever to make a road out of metal, you would need a paven smith. Is that anything? That's not anything, right? I don't know. I was like distracting myself trying to get through what I was saying about Henry Davis
Starting point is 01:00:12 while also trying to come up with that dumb joke, so I'm sorry. We have pitchers trending up. We mentioned two at the top of the show, Hunter Green and Sean Burke. Zach Wheeler, the guy is on a roll right now. He's out for vengeance for not being an All-Star. Six shutout innings, two hits, two walks, ten strikeouts. He out-duled Terrick Scuba on Sunday.
Starting point is 01:00:37 That's double-digit strikeouts in three straight. His velocity actually down a little bit in this one. and it turns out he was invited to the All-Star game as a replacement, but he didn't want to be one. He wanted to be one of the initial All-Stars, so he declined it. But Chris Terks, Zach Wheeler, excuse me, we spoke about him last week. He just keeps on turning up.
Starting point is 01:01:01 Yeah, top 10 starting pitcher. I don't know what to say. I think I moved him up to six. I got him at eight right now, but like, looking at Yamamoto and Chris Say, I think I moved him ahead of both of those. Chris Selle keeps going five innings and Yom Loto, his strikeler rates been down all season.
Starting point is 01:01:18 He's had a couple blowups. Yeah, I think you can make the case. Yeah, I got Wheeler up to SP6 now on the season. And, you know, he's right behind Camp Schlittler. I'm probably not ready to do that. But if you told me you wanted Wheeler ahead of scubel or even skeins right now, I don't think I'd really push back too hard. Sandy Alcantra, a tough loss here against the Guardians.
Starting point is 01:01:39 Seven innings, three runs, eight strikeouts to zero. he had 13 whiffs on 99 pitches in this one. And over his last eight starts, it's a 309 ERA, a 108 whip. And he's throwing strikes. He's avoiding hard contact. And he had that just brutal, I think it was May, just absolutely brutal May. But since the start of June, Sandale O'Conterra has really gotten things back on track. I think I moved him back inside my top 50 or top 40 starting pitchers last week.
Starting point is 01:02:08 So he's earned that. He's trending back up. Yeah, he's 37 for me. It was, yeah, it was basically just one bad month, and he's been pretty good outside of, yeah, 739 in May. 3.57 or better every other month. So that's a pretty good sign for Sandy. I moved him up a lot.
Starting point is 01:02:27 SP 33. All right, Sandy, trending up. What about his teammate? Yuri Perez turned in a quality start, also against the Guardian, six innings of two-run ball, six strikeouts here, 14 whiffs on 99 pitches. and over his last six starts, that includes two before he got injured, four after returning.
Starting point is 01:02:46 It's a 135 ERA.72 whip, 10K per nine. Chris, the biggest key by far, 1.6 walks per nine over the six-star stretch for Yuri Perez. Yeah, the command has gotten a lot better, and that was an issue early on, and that was the issue last season. We would see flashes, but it would just be too many uncompetitive pitches,
Starting point is 01:03:05 too many walks, and he's really gotten that in line, is kind of shocking because it came with that injury in between and you never know how that's going to work out. But it's been great to see Yuri Perez pitching up to his potential. And, you know, this was something we've said about him all along is that I don't know when the light's going to switch on. But I think it's going to happen at some point and you're going to want to be there when it does. And now we're seeing it. Sunny Gray, another quality start. This one at the Mets, six innings of one run ball, only three strikeouts to one walk. But he has a
Starting point is 01:03:39 quality start in eight straight and during that stretch it's a 192 ERA 101 whip just around a strikeout per inning getting a good amount of ground balls and he's another one I have him just ahead of the last two names we talked about so sunny gray for most of the season has been like around SP 50 I now have him closer to top 30 starting pitchers I can't really make sense of it because like it is around a strikeout per inning but it's been all over the place some starts it's nine or ten some starts it's like two he had two whiffs on 91 pitches in this one. It's the sunny gray experience.
Starting point is 01:04:13 It's the sunny gray experience, Chris. It's but like in miniature. Like it's like his whole career in one season where it's like, yeah, he's pretty good all the time. But the way he does it is different every start. It's, it's bizarre. It's, it's going to be interesting to see if they trade him.
Starting point is 01:04:30 The Red Sox have won nine straight. I think they won three, they swept three straight series on the road, which is pretty remarkable. They are still two games under 500. They are also in the playoffs as we speak, I believe. That's the American League this season. Just no idea what they're going to do. But I guess at this point, they can't sell, right?
Starting point is 01:04:50 No, I don't think they will. They're half a game out of a wildcard spot right now. They're on a nine-game winning streak, as you pointed out. They're one of, if not the hottest team in baseball right now. So, you know, we were thinking they could trade a roll to Chapman, maybe Sunny Gray. You think about maybe stashing at Garrett Whitlock. But the way they're playing, I'd only. Unless they come out of the break and they lose like six or eight in a row,
Starting point is 01:05:12 which I'm not expecting, I don't think, I don't see the Red Sox of the sellers here, heading into the second half. Kyle Bradish took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Royals, six and two-thirds, one run, five strikeouts to two walks. And over his last five starts, I think there's only one bad start in there, but 212 ERA, 0.88 whip, just under a strikeout per inning, but 2.9 walks per nine. That is a big improvement from where he was at earlier this season.
Starting point is 01:05:39 Yeah, disappointing that it hasn't come with a lot of strikeouts. Yeah. I want to say there was one really good strikeout start, but other than that, it's been a little underwhelming. But look, we'll take it, given how rough it was early on. It's just a question of, okay, now the control's been better. Can he figure the rest out? You know, can he start to get back to being a big strikeout pitcher? Or is the version of him that we're seeing right now,
Starting point is 01:06:05 just the version of him who he was in 2023 when he was good? but wasn't getting the strikeouts. I would take that at this point, but I'd like more. I'm greedy. Let's talk about Taj Bradley, another strong start. This one against the Angels,
Starting point is 01:06:20 seven innings, two runs, six strikeouts to two walks. Still allowed two homers in this one, and that can definitely be an issue at times for Todge Bradley, but he has allowed two earn runs or fewer in five straight.
Starting point is 01:06:32 He has gone seven innings in back-to-back starts and three of his last four. And look, with Tage Bradley, I feel like you could, just never get too high or too low on him. He goes through stretches where he looks really good.
Starting point is 01:06:43 He goes through stretches where he looks really bad. But I think I had him outside of my top 70 starting pitchers for like a month. But based on this recent stretch, I have him closer to like top 50 starting pitchers once again. Yeah, he's in the same range as Ian Seymour and Logan Henderson gauge jump for me. Yeah, I think that makes sense. That's closer to 60. That's in the 50 to 60 range. But yeah, I agree generally.
Starting point is 01:07:08 I don't trust it. I have very little trust in Todge Bradley. So if there was a cell window, I would be trying to open it. But I understand. He has pitched really well. And there's no doubt there's talent. It's just been an execution thing.
Starting point is 01:07:22 What about pitchers trending the opposite direction? Another bad start from Freddie Peralta this weekend against the Red Sox. Four and a third, two runs, five walks, six strikeouts. He had 17 whiffs on 92 pitches, 12 of those on the fastball. But he threw just 50. 55% of his pitches for strikes. I know that you and I believe Scott both had Freddie Peralta as a bus coming in.
Starting point is 01:07:45 And it was more like he's overvalued because he just won a bunch of games last year. And I think there was some ERA luck. But I think even you guys wouldn't have expected like a 466 ERA and a 144 whip. So if you have Freddie Peralta, Chris, what do you do?
Starting point is 01:08:02 Nothing. Just continue starting him? I mean, if you want to bench him, that's reasonable. but I think the thing that we forgot is this is who Freddie Peralta is. Now, that's not to say he is a 470 ERA pitcher because he is not. But if you do, FanGraphs has the rolling 20 game ERA chart. You can look it up every year since the 2022 breakout.
Starting point is 01:08:31 Okay, 20, or 2021 break. 2021 he breaks out. 2022, he has a 20-game stretch with a 432 ERA. 20-3, he has a 470 ERA over a 20-game stretch. He has a 471 ERA over a different 20-game stretch. 2023 or 2024, he has a 460 ERA over a 20-game stretch. Last year, his worst 20-game stretch, 326. He was incredible the whole season long.
Starting point is 01:08:54 Yep. This is just always who Freddie Peralta's been. He's always had that bleak snail in him, where there are stretches where he is just absolutely, unhittable and there are stretches where he is absolutely terrible. And the end results are always a pitcher you're pretty happy with. You're not happy along the way, though. And last year was the first time that you ever had a full season. I guess 2021 also, but those were the only two seasons where you were just happy you had Freddie Peralta around the whole season. But his career has been defined by
Starting point is 01:09:26 inconsistency. I expect Freddie Peralta to be really good at some point. Will it start in his first start after the All-Star break? Perhaps. I think it's more likely than not. But you should have always expected something like this. I don't know that I have much to offer to the person who has Freddie Peralta on their team right now. Like I think you could bench him if you want, like you said. But I think you could buy really low-up. Yeah, and I think you should try to, yeah.
Starting point is 01:09:56 Yeah, I think that would be a pretty savvy move. What about Trey's Savage, brutal outing here at the Padres, only recorded five outs. he was charged with four runs, seven walks to one strikeout. Chris, I have never seen a number this low before. He threw 34% of his pitches for strikes. Scott talks about this. Normally a good mark is like 64%, 65% really good.
Starting point is 01:10:22 It's like once you get closer to 70%. And bad is like 60% or less. That's just flat out bad. 34% is I think the lowest I've ever seen. He walked seven. in less than two innings. So that's what you would expect. What are you doing with Jayah Savage?
Starting point is 01:10:39 It's been a rotten season for him. And then you look at the ERA is still 372. XERA is 331. Like he has still been very hard to barrel. He has these starts where he walks so many. Yeah. I am shocked that his whip is only 116. Because he's not giving up any hits.
Starting point is 01:10:56 His babup allowed is 211. But when you look at the underlying stats, that might not be, it's unsustainable, but it might not be a fluke if that makes sense. Like he is generating weak contact, but he also has four starts with at least five walks, two with seven walks. Oh.
Starting point is 01:11:15 Which is one of those things where, like, you kind of, stay with me. This might sound stupid, but I swear it's true. You kind of have to be a good pitcher to walk seven batters in the game. Because like a bad pitcher who walks five
Starting point is 01:11:29 is probably just getting yanked. But like, Trey Savage, his previous seven walks start five innings one earned run. His six walk start, he got through five innings. His five walk start, he got through five and two thirds. Like, you have to be able to do something.
Starting point is 01:11:43 And he is really hard to barrel up. He's getting a lot of weak contact. He's just, you got a splitter heavy pitcher with a weird delivery, and it might just be frustrating moving forward. But I don't think you can drop him, certainly. I just worry about the fact that he dealt with the shoulder injury earlier on. Like, maybe it's just kind of. kind of,
Starting point is 01:12:05 sure, you know, just there a little bit and like has thrown off maybe his mechanics or, you know, his- And he's got weird mechanics.
Starting point is 01:12:12 So it's possible that it's just really hard to repeat his delivery. And maybe that's just, maybe that's just it. But I'm not going to drop Traja Savage. I wouldn't drop him either.
Starting point is 01:12:23 So I kind of think you just got to hang on to him. Yeah. If you don't have him, he's another one, would you try and buy low right now? I would. It would have to be low.
Starting point is 01:12:33 But, But, boy, like, Tosh Bradley for Trey is Savage. I think I would do that. I'd rather take a shot on you Savage, I think. But I wouldn't feel great about it. Would you give up Sean Burke to get you Savage? I don't think I could do that. The way that Burke is pitching?
Starting point is 01:12:50 I don't think I would do that with Burke pitching the way he is. Maybe that'll come back to bite me. But I think I'd rather, well, I don't. I'm not going to rank it that way, but. I'm not going to say I would rather have Burke. than Trey O Savage. But I don't think I could pull the trigger on that trade in either direction. Yeah, they're close enough in the rankings where it's like if they're separated by 10 or 12
Starting point is 01:13:13 pitchers, that's really not that much in the grand scheme of things. I think on a similar kind of wavelength here as you Savage, Hunter Brown, he keeps struggling with walks as well. He walked five over six innings. And his location plus is down to a career low 94 this year. Last year was 97. He has nine total walks over his last two starts. It's 5.6 walks per nine on the season.
Starting point is 01:13:35 And he's another one who just came back from a shoulder injury, right? So I just, I kind of wonder if maybe that's affecting his ability to command pitches. I think that's a very real concern. And maybe a little extra time off at the break. You know, got a couple of bullpen sessions between starts to try to tweak things. Maybe they'll get them back on track. Maybe they'll work for Trey Savage too. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:13:58 I still think these guys are talented, but sometimes talented guys never get. it, you know, like for a, for a whole season. It just never comes together for them. And maybe that's the situation with both of those guys. Some hitting leftovers, studs being studs, your boy, Yordaun Alvarez. He gets to 30 homers before the break. Two more homers this weekend. He is up to a 426 on base, 31 homers, 70 RBI, a 1059 OPS.
Starting point is 01:14:25 He entered Sunday as a top three hitter, both in Rodo and head to head points. James Wood homered each game this weekend. lead off homers on both Saturday and Sunday, one against Cam Schlittler, the other against Will Warren. And he did have a down June. Last 12 games for James Wood, he is all the way back.
Starting point is 01:14:42 442, 8 homers, 2 steals. Chris, he has got 28 homers, 89 runs, 64 RBI, 15 steals. That is a good season. And they've both had good season. James Wood has done that in 97 games. The 89 runs in 97 games is why. Crazy stuff.
Starting point is 01:15:05 410 OBP, like that is he could get to like 130 runs fairly. I mean, he'd get 140. Yeah, he'd need 41 runs in the final what 60 games? That's pretty doable. Yeah, man. Other hitting
Starting point is 01:15:21 leftover is JJ Bladay picking things back up. He homered on both Friday and Saturday. Last five games, he's got three homers and a steal. Casey Schmidt picking things back up. He had a rough June, but 10 July games, 262, 3 homers, 835 OPS. Vlad Jr. had a big game on Saturday. Two for four with a sock into shoe.
Starting point is 01:15:39 His sixth home run, his seventh steal. He has two home runs in his past four games. Sam Bessio is quietly having a very good season. He homered twice this weekend. 16 homers, 46 RBI, 773 OPS in his first full season. I would, I would think that seems pretty successful season here for San Bessio. Chase the Water is hot once again. 14 games since returning from the IL.
Starting point is 01:16:07 He's hitting 340 with four homers, 12 RBI, and a steel. And Jake McCarthy, one for three with an inside the park sock and a shoe. His 10th homer, his 15th steel, did that on Sunday. His second inside the park home run of the season. I mean, that is just, as one of the weird statistical anomalies of the season so far. And Jake McCarthy himself has just had a massive season. he's all the way up to 84% rostered. Lots of names here, Chris.
Starting point is 01:16:35 Anything you'd like to touch on? Yeah. The great Sarah Langs tweeted earlier, Jake McCarthy is the first player with multiple lead-off inside the park home runs in a season since Ed Rausch in 1929. Oh. That's a fun stat. That's a deep cut.
Starting point is 01:16:54 Other than that, I never really lost faith in Chase the Lodder, so I'm glad to see that rewarded. he talked about, you know, the rib injury kind of being a blessing in disguise because it's the first, this is the most he's ever played in the season and he was feeling kind of run down.
Starting point is 01:17:09 So hopefully, All-Star break, keep him fresh, finished the season strong. I think he's a good hitter. The power is a little questionable. He's more like a 15 to 20 homer guy, but I've made the Michael Brantley comp before and I think it really fits.
Starting point is 01:17:24 So I'm glad to see him hot. And then JJ Bladay, that's another one that, I had been inclined not to move down the rankings because the underlying stuff has still been pretty good even when he's been struggling. So I'm glad to see him close out the first half strong. He still has a 367 expected Wobah for the season.
Starting point is 01:17:45 It's still at 331 over the past 100 plate appearances. It's not superstar production, but it's pretty good. I think JJ Bladay will still be fantasy relevant in the second half. And I didn't realize I could have included him in the waiver wire discussion. He's down to 63% roster, so a lot of people have actually dropped
Starting point is 01:18:03 JJ Bladay. I think he should be more rostered than that. All right. Some pitching leftovers, Christopher Sanchez. Lots of hits, but another quality start here at the Tigers. Seven innings, 10 hits, two runs, seven strikeouts for him. Cam Schlittler allowed two homers to begin his start, and then he settled down after that
Starting point is 01:18:21 at the Nationals. Six and two-thirds, two runs, six strikeouts to four walks. Nolan McLean took a tough loss against the Red Sox, six innings, two unearned runs, seven strikeouts to two walks. And Parker Messick had himself a weird start on Friday, six innings, one hit, one run, four strikeouts to one walk. So obviously the K to walk stuff is weird, but he only allowed one hit. Chris, anything to add on Messick, McLean, Camshallelittler, and Christopher Sanchez. Messick's velocity, it was around where it usually is, but remember,
Starting point is 01:18:56 there are a couple of starts where it was up and it was like, oh, Forksumer was dominating. It's been down the last couple of starts and it hasn't been quite as good. Only one whiff in this one. So that's a little worrisome for a guy who's, you know, already 100 plus pit innings and, you know, we're not sure. I think he got to like 140 or 150 last year, so he should be okay in the second half.
Starting point is 01:19:17 It's just something to keep in mind with Messick. And then Schlittler, he's allowed a bunch of home runs lately, which wasn't an issue coming in. seven homers over his last four starts. One thing, I guess, if you're going to allow two home runs and a start, make sure they're the first two batters, so there's no runners on base. But no, the only thing that's gone wrong for him lately, though, is the home runs. And that's not nothing, but I don't find it too concerning.
Starting point is 01:19:47 Home runs are important, but relatively rare. I guess the control was a little worse in this one, but I don't think that had been an issue before this start, right? I don't believe so. The one thing with Schlittler is that his ground ball rate has been trending down as the season has gone on. So allowing more fly balls when you pitch your home games in Yankee Stadium. It's not ideal. It's not ideal for Cam Schlittler.
Starting point is 01:20:11 So I look, I think his ERA was always going to tick up a little bit. He wasn't going to pitch just a two ERA the rest of the season. But yeah, I could see some more homers coming a little bit in the second half. But I still do have very high expectations for him. Edwardo Rodriguez. He can't keep getting away with it. He can't. He can't keep getting away with it.
Starting point is 01:20:36 I agree, Jesse. But he does. Six innings, two runs, five strikeouts to one walk, at the Dodgers of all teams. That is five straight quality starts going into the break. I don't know what else we could say
Starting point is 01:20:50 about Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris. It's going to end in tears and an ERA over 450. So still remains the biggest sell high in fantasy baseball. If anybody's buying. Trade him for a trade Savage, Chris? I would do that in less than one heartbeat. All right.
Starting point is 01:21:12 Two other rough ones from the weekend. Yamamoto, six-sitting, six runs, four walks to six strikeouts here against the debacks. I didn't, you know, digging in, I didn't think that he pitched this poorly. It feels like maybe he deserved a better result. here, but the line is what it is. And Braxton Ashcraft, he's struggled a little bit lately.
Starting point is 01:21:32 Five innings, five runs, six strikeouts, two homers allowed. He has allowed five run runs in two of his last three starts. He has given up multiple home runs in each of those as well. And over his last eight starts, much like Camp Schlittler, the ground ball rate is down to just 35% during that stretch. 91.5 average exit velocity against. So that's kind of scary here for Ashcraft. Anything else to add on him and Yamamoto?
Starting point is 01:21:58 Ashcraft, yeah. He's been the ground ball rate going down. That's not what you want to see. That's been a strength of his. The underlying numbers are still really solid. 349 ERA, 328 XERA. So I don't think there's too much to worry about there. But, you know, maybe he's just a mid-3s ERA guy.
Starting point is 01:22:16 There's nothing wrong with being a mid-3s ERA guy. The call to the bullpen for the Orioles on Friday. Rico Garcia entered in the eighth inning with the game tied. he faced the top of the Royals lineup. It was a clean inning for him. And then Andrew Kittridge got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He allowed a double but picked up his third save.
Starting point is 01:22:34 Tyler Wells had pitched Wednesday and Thursday, so I just assume he was unavailable on Friday. Didn't Kittridge get a save on Thursday as well? I think he did. I think that's a little annoying. I still think Wells is the guy, but it's annoying. I think Wells is their highest leverage reliever. I don't know that that will always come in the ninth inning, though.
Starting point is 01:22:53 Yeah. For the Angels on Friday, Kirby Yates got the ninth with a one-run lead. He allowed a hit, but picked up his third save. The Angels are really bad, but they keep going back to Kirby Yates, so he feels like the guy. For the Giants on Friday, Caleb Killian got the ninth inning with a one-run lead. He allowed a single walk, bunt single, then a two-run single. He was charged with three earned runs without recording an out. He also was charged with his third-blown save and fifth loss.
Starting point is 01:23:19 Then on Saturday, J.T. Brewbaker converted the final two innings, he picked up his first save. Do you see the giants going to anybody else in that bullpen? I don't even want to speculate on it, honestly. It just, it doesn't seem like anybody's worth it there. Yeah. On Saturday for the Twins, Yo, Entries Gomez, picked up his 11th save. Then on Sunday, Andrew Morris tossed two scoreless innings for his third save of the season.
Starting point is 01:23:49 He's pretty good. Like, I don't think he's going to be the closer, but, He's had a nice rookie season. Yeah, I have Gomez in a few spots. I'm hoping that isn't the case, but... No, Morris, I think, has been pitching almost exclusively, like, multi-inning stints still, so... Yeah, this is just a reminder that, like,
Starting point is 01:24:10 as good as Gomez is, I think he will get the majority of their saves. He isn't there closer with, like, a capital scene. Yeah, yeah. For the White Sox on Saturday, Grant Taylor got the final five outs for his fourth save, and it does seem like... things are trending in Grant Taylor's direction right now. For the Cubs, on Saturday, Jacob Webb got the eighth inning with a two-run lead.
Starting point is 01:24:30 He was facing the heart of the Reds lineup. He allowed a walk, but that was it. It was lefty, Ryan Rawlinson, who started the ninth. He recorded two outs. Then Trent Thornton came on to get the final out for his third save. Then on Sunday, Jacob Webb did get the final two outs for his fifth save. I think it's mostly Jacob Webb until Daniel Plumcia's back, but they've, you know, mixed. It's similar to like Tyler Wells.
Starting point is 01:24:53 their highest leverage reliever, but it won't always come in the ninth inning for the Cubs. And I think Daniel Polantia, they're still expecting him to be back sometime in the second half. For the Pirates on Saturday in Game 1, Gregory Soto picked up his 12th save. And then in game two, it was Mason Montgomery, who picked up his first save. We spoke about it earlier, but do you have a lean in the Pirates bullpen right now? I mean, I guess I lean Soto, but he's got to be good, you know? I don't think that their closer is on their team right now. I think that's the person who gets the most saves from here on out is probably not on their roster.
Starting point is 01:25:31 Then for the Mets on Sunday, Devin Williams got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He allowed two runs, one of those earned on two walks and two hits. Bad defensive miscue behind him. After the game interim manager, Andy Green said that they're sticking with Williams. Luke Weaver has been awesome, but he's good trade bait right now. I don't think they want to mess with that. So I think Devin Williams will remain the closer for the Mets. Unless he just continues to absolutely implode.
Starting point is 01:25:56 We are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow with an MLB draft recap. See you then. Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.

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