Fantasy Baseball Today - Players We Draft: Central Edition; Shohei Ohtani's Value (06/04 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 4, 2020

Today on the show we're talking about our players to draft from the AL and NL Central divisions but first, we answer some questions on Shohei Ohtani (2:00)! Will he be more injury-prone than the average player? What format are you most likely to draft him in? What is his dynasty outlook? ... Taking a look at the players we love to draft in the Central divisions, we start off with the Cleveland Indians (9:44). Everybody loves Franmil Reyes! ... For the White Sox, Chris is buying into the adjustments Yoan Moncada made in 2019 (13:02). Scott and Frank are trusting Lucas Giolito. ... Is it possible to draft every hitter on the Twins (16:57)? Will Nelson Cruz ever stop mashing? ... When it comes to the Detroit Tigers, there is only one option (20:40)! ... For the Kansas City Royals, Scott favors Jorge Soler while Frank is on Salvador Perez (23:33). ... Chris has to run but first he gives us his favorite NL central players (26:45). ... Scott thinks Nick Castellanos can have Nolan Arenado type upside with the Reds (32:13). ... Why is Ian Happ such a popular sleeper (36:37)? ... The Brewers are known for advancing hitters' careers (40:05). Can they do it with Avisail Garcia? ... Even though the Pirates are expecting to be a bad team, they have some interesting players (44:00). ... Is Dylan Carlson the next big thing with the Cardinals (47:00)? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

How good can Shohei Otani really be? We answer that question and many more here on fantasy baseball today on a Thursday. June 4th, Frank Stamphle, alongside Scotty Dubbs, Scott White. Scott, we're alone for now. Just us too, man. How's it going? Chris is going to join us later, right? That is correct.

Yeah, let's look forward to that. CPT, busy man, Adam Azer, another one. How dare he take off, Adam. Anyways, you know, I realize now that we should have talked about Otani yesterday because we were talking about the AL and NL West teams, but I guess because we had the Chris Archer News, just couldn't really fit it in. What are you going to do, Scott?

You know, what are you going to do? That's what we're having trouble doing right now with all this stuff happening, fitting things in to our fantasy baseball podcast. There you go. Well, I wanted to talk about Otani because we've been getting more questions about Otani recently, and then I realized the two questions we have

are probably from the same person because they're both from Andrew and Canada. I will just, I'll read one of them because they're basically, they basically ask the same questions, but dear Ace, Baxter, Bernie, and Billy. Ace Baxter, Bernie, and B, man. I don't know, do you know? These are, I did not know, but he included the answer. These are MLB mascots for the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Bernie the Brewer, I guess, and the Marlins, Billy the Marlins.

Ah, yes. I had no idea Aes and Baxter were mascots, but Bernie the Brewer and Billy the Marlon, I knew. That's a great mustache he has there too, Bernie the Brewer. Maybe I should shave my face to look like Bernie the Brewer. Save that for another day.

It's easy to get enamored with Otani's upside, especially in dual eligibility and daily leagues. But is he not at risk for both injuries now that it is usually unique, injuries that are usually unique to just batters, or just pitchers in his range of injuries than not much. It's wider his range of injuries more so than other players because he's both a pitcher and he's both a hitter.

Yeah. No, I see what he's saying. Yeah. I hadn't thought about that before, but it's, it's true. I mean, I assume that's kind of the thinking behind giving him so many days off is just keeping, it's more difficult to keep his body, that maintain his body, when he's going back and forth like that. And so he needs a day off before he pitches.

He needs a day off after he pitches. But specifically the injury risk of, you know, just twice as many opportunities to get injured, basically. Yeah. And I mean, it's a really weird situation for Otani. And I've pretty much decided that I'd prefer stay away from it unless it's just insane value, which sometimes it is. Sometimes it seems like everybody wants to stay away from Motani. And if that's the case, if I can get him like as my fifth starting pitcher or something like that, I'm all about it.

Daily League obviously adds the ability to get both of both his hitting contributions and his pitching contributions, the full amount of both. And so that makes him more interesting in that format. But even then, you know, hitting is so prevalent that I'm not sure you're, necessarily going to want him in your DH spot every time he's in the lineup for the Angels. So are you getting all you pay for even in that scenario? I'm not sure. Yeah, and it will be interesting to see how Joe Madden uses Otani because again, this is Joe Madden's first year with the Angels. And during 2018, Otani would always have the day off batting both before and after the day he would pitch. But Joe Madden,

Madden is on record saying that he's going to try and find ways to get Otani in the lineup as often as he possibly can. He even offered that Otani can hit on the days that he pitches. I don't know how realistic that is, but it is something that Joe Madden has mentioned already. Otani is returning from Tommy John, again, as a pitcher, and his batting practice sessions are about 50 to 55 pitches right now, and he should be ready to pitch come July. So, you know, answer me this, Scott. You know, when it comes to, because he also asked about Otani from a dynasty perspective,

where are you most likely to draft, like, what format are you most likely to draft Otani in a redraft? And then, you know, how do you, like, how would you approach him in a dynasty setting? Is it the same? You'll just kind of, you know, wait on him to when the price is right. Because I think that if everything hits, he can be a top 20 starting pitcher on a per start basis. I think that he can be a top 30, top 40 hitter based on what we've seen. I mean, an 840 OPS or higher each of the past two seasons. And he's the ultimate risk reward candidate in the Dynasty League, Scott.

Yeah, if you're talking per game basis, I think it's even higher than that. I mean, I think he could be, I think he could pitch like a Zion contender, a top 10 pitcher on a per start basis. I think as a batter, he could be, you know, he could be an early rounder as a batter too. but it's just he's not getting the full allotment of games doing either one of those things. And daily helps, like I said, weekly you have to downgrade him for as long as he's doing that. I tend to value him more in a dynasty league than in a redraft league because, you know, as the Tommy John surgery gets further behind him, you know, that's going to be one variable that goes away.

but the thing that's easy to overlook is he's only 25. Like he was already so accomplished coming over from Japan, and then he lost a year as a pitcher anyway, that I think it's easy to think he's more like 27, 28, something like that. He's only 25. So we still don't really know how good it gets for Otani, and it's already so, like he's already shown the ability to be so good at both that even though it's frustrating the usage,

I think the angels will get smarter about that going on going forward. And I think Otani will, you know, as he puts this injury further behind him, that will be less top of mind. It'll be less scary to take him going forward. And now's the chance to get him. Now may be the last chance to get him at a discount in a dynasty league. Yeah, as a pitcher,

he was just dominant back in 2018, 331 ERA, a 116 whip, 15.2% swinging strike rate. That would have ranked sixth among qualified starting pitchers if he qualified. Obviously, he did not with as little endings as he threw. But 97 mile per hour fastball, wipeout splitter, has a good slider as well. In redraft, I typically stay away from him in weekly head-to-head points leagues. but in Roto, I'm fine with it. I think he's going to perform quite well as long as he's healthy,

both as a pitcher and as a hitter. And daily head-to-head leagues are where, you know, he has the highest value when it comes to show Aetani, when you can slot him into your utility on the days he's batting and use him as a pitcher on other days. Yeah, but in Dynasty, like, I don't think we've seen the best yet, obviously, from Otani. And it's just there's a lot of risk,

but a very high reward for Shohei Otani. So there you go. Hopefully we answered your question there, Andrew. We're going to take an early break here today on fantasy baseball today. And when we return, we're going to talk about our favorite players to draft the Central edition, the AL and NL Central. We'll do that with Chris Towers, who will join the show here on Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome back to Fantasy Baseball today. We're going to talk about our favorite players to draft in the AL and NL Central.

Joining us now is Chris Towers. Chris, how's it going, buddy? Hey, thanks for having me, guys. Great to be here. First time, long time. Really big fan. Well, we're a really big fan of yours as well, Chris. Let's jump right in. Yesterday we did the AL and NL West. Today we're doing the AL and NL Central. We'll start things off with the Cleveland Indians. Chris, why don't we get you right in here from the top? Cleveland Indians. Who do you find yourself drafting most when it comes to this team? It's got to be Framo Reyes for me. This is weirdly a team I actually don't find myself drafting from very much at all, which is strange because I feel like I said that for two or three teams yesterday,

and so maybe I'm just a big liar. But yeah, Fram O'Reyes is at the perfect price point where, you know, we know what he does, which is hit for power, is not hard to find these days. But you're paying a third round price for Pete Alonzo, a fourth or fifth round price for Matt Olson, you know, sixth or tenth round price for John Carlos Stan, if you're Scott White.

Whereas Framoreas is in that like 11, 12 round range. And I think he can give you very similar production to what those players can. Yeah, I think you laid that out pretty well. He is one of these stat-cast darlings where he hits the ball, you know, nearly as hard as anybody else. His average exit velocity last season, 93.3 miles per hour. That was fourth best in baseball behind only Aaron Judge, Miguel Seno, Nelson Cruz.

Of course, he goes later than all of those players. His ADP is 130.2. I think if he raises that launch angle just a little bit more, we're talking about a 260-ish hitter with a 40 home run pace. I think that's well within the realm of possibility. Franmaul Reyes is the Indian. I find myself drafting most as well. Scott, where do you go when it comes to Cleveland?

So I don't know how helpful this is because it's a guy who go so early, but truthfully, it's Shane Bieber. He's probably on about a third of my teams. I understand he's kind of divisive as whether or not he's an elite pitcher because of his hard-hit tendencies. And XERA wasn't so fond of him last year, but a great control pitcher. And really the main thing that, you know, it's like me, a moth to a flame, is I'm the guy who values volume so much from pitchers and Shane Bieber is like the king of pitching deep into games. This is a stat from my 48 amazing stats column. It's one of my favorite ones in there.

Shane Bieber had 10 starts last year of more than seven innings. 10 starts of more than seven innings. Max Scherzer had five. Justin Verlander had four. Garrett Cole had three. Jacob de Grom had two. Bieber had 10. So that's a big way he stands out from the pack.

definitely helps in a points league as well. I find myself drafting a decent amount of Bieber, Clevenger, Jose Ramirez, some of those early round Indians, but yeah, Fran Mulraeus probably makes it onto more of my teams than even those guys. Let's move over to the Chicago White Sox,

and this is my team. I am a pseudo-White Sox fan. Now, I basically want all of these players. Scott, who do you find yourself drafting most from the White Sox this season? I did not know that about you, that you love so many White Sox.

Man, this is going to be another boring answer, but if I'm being honest, the one I dropped most often is Lucas Gioledo. I think, Frank, you and I are the only ones who seem to be fully on board with the idea that Giolyto is an ace. Give it to me, Scott. Love them. And it's really just, it's really just a timing thing.

Like, who is your favorite from that next group, after the obvious top five go off the board, maybe, including, well, duelers among the top five. I guess Beaver's my next favorite, but he's usually gone by like round three or round four. And some drafts, the first pitcher I'm looking to take is in round three or round four, and it just so happens that Lucas G.olito is my top available guy left.

And so I end up taking him a lot. Yeah, I don't have a problem with that. His ADP is 51.8, according to Fantasy Pro. so readily available in the late third, most of the fourth round. The pitcher for me, I would put Charlie Morton, Morton in that mix, but once he's gone, I'm basically looking at those two guys. It's Morton and Gialito for me. Chris, who do you find yourself drafting from the White Sox?

I really like, I mean, Y'all Macotta, I talk about it a ton. I love Y'all Macotta. I really like Tim Anderson. I think both of those guys took really big steps. forward. So I'll let you pick which one of those I like most. Let's go with Moncada. I like Moncada a lot as well. I think you like Moncada the most. Yes. Yeah. And Moncada, you know, I was talking to someone about Ryan McMahon on Twitter the other day. And they were like, well, you know, I know he's been bad so far and he has all these flaws. But, you know,

you have to think about the pedigree. And that made me think like, I mean, yeah, you have to take the pedigree into account. But like, Yohan Moncada was. like the number one prospect in baseball and was considered like a superstar type player. And a lot of people had given up on him last year. He showed last year that he's got elite skills, which he's always shown. But he improved his approach. And that's the key. You know, people talk about, well, his walk rate went down.

That's because he was swinging more. He wasn't taking as many hitable pitches. He wasn't, you know, he, I believe. he led baseball and called third strikes in 2018. And so he's someone who has such unbelievable baseball skills that that approach change, I think made all the difference. And I think he's going to sustain it and possibly even improve. Yeah, I find myself drafting Montcada, probably more so in Roto than in head-toe, but a lot of Tim Anderson in Roto. You guys know I'm a big fan of Eloy Jimenez, Chiolito. So I do like a lot of White Sox, but, you know, Jose

Brayu ranks above all of those, and I've talked a decent amount about him. 74 is his ADP, solid contributor in batting average. In the six seasons he's played, has 100 or more RBI in five of those, has 30 or more home runs in four of those. He's a little bit older, but to me has shown no signs of decline. Last year, his 92-mile-per-hour exit velocity was the highest of his career, and his barrel rate was actually the highest of his career. career as well. I think this is the best lineup that he's had the opportunity to play with. So I am not

for sure veering away from Jose Ibrahim. In fact, I am leaning into the Jose Abraeu love. Let's move on to the Bumba Squad, the Minnesota Twins, one of the best lineups in baseball. Chris, are you looking at somebody in that lineup or perhaps in the rotation? It's definitely, I mean, I really like Henta Maeda, but it's Nelson Cruz for me. I think you could draft every single person in this starting lineup. I think every single one of them deserves to be drafted even in a 12th team lineup. But Nelson Cruz has shown absolutely no signs of aging. He's coming off arguably his best season of all time last year. He hit like a first rounder last year.

And he's going like what, 80th, 90th? It's ridiculous. He's going 79th. But yeah, about 80th. 80th. Like I said. So yeah, I just think like he's going to fall off at some point. But like David Ortiz, we might not.

see it happen. He might not fall off until after he retires. Yeah, one through nine in the lineup. You can make the argument for anyone. You could draft their entire lineup if you want to in a rhodo league. I've suggested doing my Dodgers starting pitcher from last year plus twins lineup. And I think that could be very fruitful and not that expensive. Yeah, it's hard to argue. You mentioned Nelson Cruz performed like a first round hitter last year. He averaged four fantasy points per game on the dot. That was seventh in baseball. That was the same amount as Muki Betts. That was better than Juan Soto. That was better than Ronald Ocuna. His 1,0.31 OPS was fourth best in baseball. It's just a matter of him getting older. How much are you

worried about him potentially just falling off a cliff or getting hurt? Because he will legitimately be 40 years old by the time the season starts if we have one. His birthday is on July 1st. Scott, Minnesota Twins. Clean sweet? No, no. Although I do like drafting Nelson Cruz, there are a lot of twins I like drafting. This might be like my white socks for you.

The one I'm going to single out here, though, is Mitch Garver. Catcher is a position where, you know, you need, if you can't get somebody truly impactful in a one catcher league, you might as well just wait because there's enough, like, decent options to go around. and nobody's going to double up there in a one-catcher league.

But Mitch Garver has a chance to be the most impactful of all. Not only did he lead all-catchers and slugging percentage last year, as well as ISO and OPS, but in terms of head-to-head points per game, the difference between him and the consensus number one catcher J.T. Realmuto last year, the amount that Garver was ahead of Realmuto and head-to-head points per game is like the same amount that Javier Baez was ahead of Nico Goodrum. He was a distant number one. And I don't know if with more playing time,

he's going to be able to sustain quite that pace, but he's going 12th third overall on average, which is like an 11th round pick in a 12th team league. In 11th round, you're getting to a point where you can afford to take some big swings. I mean, all the high-end starting pitchers are gone at that point. You probably have filled out your lineup in a one-catchezer. League for the most part. And here's this guy who has a chance to be maybe a big number one at

that weak position. So I love taking Mitch Garver. Yeah, hard to argue that. I like Mitch Garver as well. I haven't wound up with a ton of him yet in my drafts, but I am definitely not opposed to taking him again, anybody in that Minnesota Twins lineup. Yesterday, when talking about our favorite players to draft in the West, we had a few crappy teams in the Mariners and the Giants. Well, guess what? The Detroit Tigers are up next. Scott. Oh, my gosh. I got to pick somebody from this team.

Yeah. The only... I'm sorry. The only player I want to pick is Matthew Boyd. And I go back and forth on how much I want to take him even. I think as time has gone on, I've seen the Glassmoor half full with Matthew Boyd. Because, you know, his strikeout to strike out rate, strike out to walk rate. It's, you know, he ranks among the elites there.

He just got destroyed by the home run last year, particularly over the last four months. It was really a tale of two seasons with him, dominant for the first two, terrible for the last four. But that home run rate for those final four months when he got crushed would be the highest home run rate for any pitcher ever by far if he did that over a full season. Like it was too high to believe. And, you know, there's been some talk about him working a curve. ball into his arsenal this year. Curveball tends to be a ground ball pitch, so maybe that can help

neutralize things a bit without just, you know, the law of average is taking effect there. So I am, you know, particularly for the point where he goes all the strikeout upside, just if you're, just if you're looking to pad your strikeouts, he's a good pick. And I think there's a chance he even performs beyond, beyond just being that category specialist. Chris, I know you're a big fan of Matthew Boyd as well. Is he the tiger you find yourself drafting most. Absolutely. He is someone who he really just has one flaw at this point, at least based on what he showed us last year, and that was the home runs. And like Scott

said, the curveball could be the answer to that. And it's also worth knowing the curveball looked great in his few spring training starts. It was legitimately like a different look than his slider. And that's been a silent key for Patrick Corbyn's breakout is he kind of ditched his change-up and started using a slight variation on his slider that is defined as a curveball to act as a change-up. And, you know, I think we could see similar things from Matthew Boyd. Yeah, Matthew Boyd for me, he's SP-44 off the board right now, 157.8 ADP. I have him as my SP-30, so ranked significantly higher than consensus. First,

two months last season, a 285 ERA, 102 whip, average nearly 11 case per nine in those first two months. Then, of course, struggled with walks and home runs. But I think this inclusion of a curveball to go along with a wipeout slider could really make the difference for Matthew Boyd. Wins are going to be hard to come across here, but the strikeout upside is just massive, even on a bad Detroit Tiger team. So give me Matthew Boyd as well. Let's round it out with the Kansas City Royals. Chris, are you a Jorge Salare fan as much as Scott White is?

Definitely not. That's not to say I don't like Jorge Saler or that I can't see the appeal. And, you know, he's another guy who's not being drafted quite at face value based on his breakout. So he has that going for him.

I am skeptical that he's going to keep the strikeout rate improvements up. I am skeptical that he can continue to be an elite power hitter, however, if I'm being forced to choose, I guess it's got to be him. I mean, Whitmeryfield and Adelbertramondesie are great, but, well, in theory, out of Bertramandisi is great, but I think that you're taking on a ton of risk, not just with the performance, but with the injuries at his price.

So for me, it's got to be Solair. Yeah, it's interesting because I have been very bullish about Salair and I've talked him up at every opportunity. I rarely end up drafting him. I'm frustrated when I see somebody else draft him and wish I had been the one drafting him, but it just never seems to work out. I guess other people tend to be as high on him as I am or maybe I'm just waiting too long. He goes 85th overall on average. And yeah, if you look at from the second half, changes he made with the strikeout rate, with, you know, how many, how few ground balls he was hitting.

The profile is basically like John Carlos Stanton, the year he won in LNVP. And you don't even really have to go that far. I mean, so Lair hit 48 home runs last year. That should be enough of a selling point. I just think the data supports that and maybe even supports something beyond. that him being, you know, not such a liability in batting average. And, you know, for 85th overall, seems like a good deal to me. Yeah, and the data actually supports Jorge Soler's breakout more than someone like

A. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. E. H. Housourenio Suarez, last season. The batted ball data for Soler was just magnificent. So he is someone that I like. But I'm with you, Scott. I just don't wind up with him a lot for some reason. Maybe it's just where he goes. I'm targeting different things at that point in the draft. but Salvador Perez is someone I keep finding myself drafting probably better in a Roto league, but because he plays so much or has played so much in the past, that volume allows him to be useful in points leagues. He was the top five catcher in both 2017 and 2018.

Consistent career 266 hitter, 21 or more home runs in four straight seasons from 2015 through 2018. He's coming back off of Tommy John's surgery. but I don't think that really affects Salvador Perez much. We've seen other hitters, not necessarily catchers, return from this, but I really don't worry about that much, and I think he's still going to play a very large portion of the games for the Royals this season.

So he is a catcher I find myself drafting often. Chris, I know that you have to run here in a bit. We're about to transition into the National League. Do you want to kind of just give us a little quick hitter edition of who Chris Towers is targeting for each of the National League central teams. Oh, yeah. Okay, let's do this.

The Brewers, I'm going to go kind of off the board and go really deep. I think my favorite player on the Brewers to draft might be Corbyn Burns. If he gets a chance in the rotation, I think Corbyn Burns has some of the best stuff in baseball. And I know he was awful last year. I think he's better than that.

I think he could be an elite strikeout pitcher, someone, you know, with like Matthew Boyd potential, which, you know, maybe you laugh at that, but I'm talking about the Matthew Boyd we hope to see this year. He was thrown a 94 mile per hour's lighter this spring. Yeah, that seems pretty good. He's got ridiculously good stuff. And so, yeah, I believe in him. I hope he gets a chance. It doesn't look like he will yet, but we'll see.

For the Cardinals, that one's a little tougher. It's probably Giovanni Gallegos, which is kind of weird. I don't know if we've mentioned a closer for any of these yet, but I really like the stuff. I guess he's not guaranteed to be the closer. The return of Jordan Hicks could be a complicating factor. That one's just a belief that the talent will win out, especially if the price tag continues to go down.

For the Cubs, I would say it's probably Ian Hap Yeah actually You know there are definitely higher Higher end guys who I'd like more obviously I like Javier Baezzo Chris Bryant

I'm not as sold on Kyle Schwerber As a lot of people in the industry seem to be that he took this big step forward Last year that he's going to sustain You know like Jorge Salere It was kind of a half a season Where he really took off And I just

I'm a little skeptical of that. So for me, it's Ian Hap showed progress in AAA last season with his strikeout rate. We know he's got power. We know he's got a little bit of speed. We know he can play all over the field. And so if he can just keep that strikeout rate to 25% range, a 30 homer pace with maybe double-digit steals pace isn't out of the question. Pirates, we know.

We know who it is. Joe Musgrove slash Mitch Keller slash unfortunately not Chris Archer I think of that it was Chris Archer But yeah I just Keller has legitimate ace upside showed last season

that his slider and curveball can both be plus swing and miss pitches in the major leagues Pirates approach I think let him down and he's talked about that a little bit Tyler Glass now has talked about the pirates Just one size fits all

approach and if what you're doing isn't working, they just try to make you do what worked for Yvonne Nova five years ago. And so, you know, I think we're going to see more fastballs up in the zone from him, but fewer fastballs overall. And I think that's going to make him Mitch Keller play up really nicely. And I know, Frank, you like that one as well. Oh, yeah. And on the Reds, there's quite a few players I like on this team as well, but I think the number one player is Nick Castellanos. Um, it's not entirely. based on what he did with the Cubs, although I don't think you can just ignore that.

He was one of the best hitters in baseball. After the trade deadline, had like an OPS close to a thousand, or over a thousand, I believe. And, you know, that matched up with what the batted ball data has been telling us for a long time. And in Nick Castiano's case,

he very publicly complained about how difficult a place Comerica Park was to pitch or to hit him when he was with the Tigers. So I think getting away from there and getting to a place like the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati that isn't just a small ballpark but particularly has short power alleys, that's going to play a huge role in the Castiana's having a big season because he is a power alleys type of hitter.

He doesn't pull his home runs. He doesn't hit him the opposite way. It's all out towards center. And so I think you're looking at upside that's not dissimilar to what J.D. Martinez did last year, which is about a three. 300 average, you know, 35 to 40 Homer pace. Maybe the power is a little lower, but plenty of run production opportunities in that lineup as well. Yeah, hard to argue with Nick Castellanos.

Chris, thanks for giving us your little lightning round edition. You're going to break off here. I'm out of breath. That was impressive, though. I do appreciate it. All right. Talk to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for having me, guys.

It was great. Let's do it again sometime. Yeah, hopefully. Hopefully. All right. That's Chris. Scott and I are going to continue to carry on here. And then there were two, Scott.

Just you and I. Chris has gone. Adam has left us, but we will carry the torch, the mantle of fantasy baseball today. Yeah, what if we lose one more? Yeah, I know. What will happen then?

I mean, yeah, I guess it would be pretty hard either way if one of you or I left here. But, you know, let's pick it up with the Cincinnati Reds. You heard Chris talk about Nick Castiano's there, and I've heard you make that comp as well to J.D. Martinez. I think it's a very interesting one. Is Castellanos your pick for the Cincinnati Reds, who you find yourself drafting the most?

He hadn't been until very recently. I'm a recent convert to this way of thinking for Nick Castellanos, just looking into it more, seeing that the underlying, as crazy good as he was with the Cubs, the underlying numbers suggest it wasn't just a hot streak. And when you do park overlays of his batted balls in Cincinnati versus where he played last year in Detroit, which is just terrible and right center especially where he tends to hit the ball a lot. You're talking a couple dozen extra balls going out of the park in Cincinnati versus Detroit.

I mean, it's crazy how many. And then a friend of mine on Twitter, Crosby Spencer, he sent me some research. did digging into the stat cast data like park effects for specific parts of every ballpark basically for

every 100 home runs hit by a righty to center field in the average MLB park for every hundred only 29 go out at Comerica Park wow and it's 71 in right center

71's considered bad by that normal you know, that normal way of looking at it. But for straightaway center for right-handed theater, it's only 29, which is just insanely bad. So the data really backs up what Castianos was complaining about before he got traded, and it backs up him taking this big leap forward upon leaving it with the Cubs last year, and Cincinnati figures to be even better.

So, you know, J.D. Martinez, I've made Nolan Aeronado, made that comparison before. Like, I think Castianos becomes potentially a true stud there. I just want to mention Sunny Gray. is probably the one I've drafted most often to this point. He tends to get overlooked when we talk about you, Darvish and how big his second half was, Jack Flaherty, how big his second half was. Sunny Gray had one much like it.

And Cincinnati really seems to have figured something out with pitchers, maximizing what they bring to the table. They hired Kyle Boddy, I think his name is, of driveline baseball to be their pitching coordinator. And, yeah, they really unlike. the potential of Sunny Gray's slider last year, which always showed the potential to be a good swing and miss pitch. And he maintained a good ground ball rate on top of it.

So I think he, I think after all the fakeouts over the years, we're finally going to see Sunny Gray put together back-to-back dominant seasons for once. Yeah, and the Reds also have Derek Johnson as their pitching coach, and he was Sunny Gray's college coach. So they were reunited as well. and yeah, his curveball and his slider took off.

Sunny Gray as someone that I like targeting as my SP3. I mean, don't really love him as an SP2, but I think in that SP3 range, if you could get him there, I think that that's a great point to get him. The player that I was, that I find myself drafting the most, is Nick Senzel, actually, 232.2.80p. And to me, Senzel is kind of like Kyle Tucker, except he's going 100 picks later.

I don't think he has the same upside as a Kyle Tucker, but I feel like he goes as late as he does just because people don't know if he's going to play every day. And obviously, the changes in what we're expecting this season, the expanded rosters and the Universal DH, isn't exactly reflected in ADP yet. So you could take advantage of that with Nick Senzel, and it's kind of that blind faith pick that we talk about

with prospects. He's had a lot of injuries. I had shoulder surgery in September. Apparently 100% now. He offers a little power, a little speed, 12 homers, 14 steals, career 312 hitter in the minors. So hopefully he can pick that batting average up a little bit, but I do like the upside of someone like Senzel

at his current cost of 232.2. Scott, let's move over to the Chicago Cubs. For Chris, it was Ian Hap. Who do you find yourself drafting when it comes to the Chicago Cubs, Scott? So I recently wrote a piece where I ranked all 30 teams by their interest level to fantasy baseball participants. And the Cubs were fairly low on that list because I'm just not, there's just not a lot to get excited about here. I mean, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Wilson Contreras, they're already so established as what they are. And if anything, it seems like they might be taking a step back.

from their peak. I don't know. I guess it's you Darvish probably is the one I end up drafting most often. Just I don't pick him out, single him out in particular as like a starting pitcher I have to have. But because I want so many high-end pitchers and because I'm not particularly picky about the ones I get, you Darvish often ends up being that guy because he tends to get pushed toward the back end of that group of 35. highlighting. He has a ton of strikeout potential. I think he's probably even better than his full season number showed last year,

though not as good as he showed, you know, just looking at the second half numbers, of course. And I end up with him a fair, I end up with him a fair amount. That's kind of true for all the pictures I've mentioned today. Gialito, Darvish. Sunny Gray. Sunny Gray, yeah, exactly.

It's less that I think I have to have that picture in particular. it's just, I'm not being picky. And I guess when you're not being picky, the person who isn't being picky and who wants a lot of starting pitchers, those tend to be the ones that fall in his lap. So Darvish is among them. The ADP on you, Darvish, 60.8,

he's the 19th starting pitcher off the board. I remember it like it was yesterday, Scott. It was like a five or six walk performance against the Miami Marlins last season in Wrigley Field. I was watching it an afternoon game, and I wouldn't have blown. blamed anybody for dropping you Darvish after that point. He just could not locate his pitches at all,

but then really just turned it completely around after that, really started to rely on this cutter slider pitch a ton last year. And it really, really helped him with his command, and ultimately just break out. So hopefully he can carry that over this season. Ian Hap is the name for me as well, similar to Chris, 286.2 ADP for Ian Hap. He's kind of a, I don't even want to say post-type sleeper. I think that there's some breakout potential with Ian Hap

where he can get back to that player we saw in 2017 when he hit 24 home runs with eight steals in just 115 games. Chris mentioned the strikeout rate last year, and I think that is just the key for Ian Hap. It's just making more contact, and he did that. 26% strikeout rate in the minors last season, 25% strikeout rate in 58 major league games last. season and so far in the spring he was having a big spring he was batting 481 he had just four

strikeouts in 30 plate appearances small sample size but i still think that there is some potential probably better in a roto league uh because i'll give you some power some speed but yeah ian hap is someone i think has that kind of upside around where he's going close to 300 it's just crazy the milwaukee brewers scott when it comes to the milwaukee brewers you heard chris mention Corbyn Burns. They have a lot of, I don't want to say high-end arms. Brandon Woodruff is drafted as a top 25 starting pitcher, but outside of him, there's really just a lot of interesting sleeper-like candidates in their rotation. What do you think about the Brewers? Do you find yourself drafting a pitcher from there? Is it one of their hitters? Where do you usually go?

Yeah, they do have some interesting arms. Adrian Houser is probably my personal favorite, it, but I would say that the brewer I end up taking most often is Avicel Garcia, who has a similar situation that, you know, the Nick Castiano situation. It's similar for Avi Sal Garcia, where he's, you do a park overlay of a Tropicana Field versus Miller Park. Miller Park, of course, being one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball, has transformed a lot of scrubby players into, stars over the past few years and took

Christian Yellich from being kind of a decent player to, of course, drought level. Avi Sal Garcia, you do a park overlay there and it shows him hitting half a dozen to a dozen more home runs. He's worked on his launch

angle the past couple years. It's still not great, but the ground ball rate has been dropping. And I believe he hit a career high in home runs last year as a part-time player for the raise. I think he can be, you know, he's always shown good batting average potential, and I

think he could be like a 30 homer pace guy for the Brewers. There were some questions about his playing time, but with Universal DH, I think those are out the window. And somebody I'm happy to take is my fourth or fifth outfielder in a roto league, not as enthusiastic about

him in points league because he walks so little, but even there, I think he's going to be a decent option. Vissiel Garcia's ADP, 223.6, so another one that you can get later on in your drafts. I'm going to go the opposite direction. I'm going to go someone who's being drafted higher, and I mentioned this, believe it was last week, maybe two weeks ago, but Kesson Hiera, 48.6 is ADP. You've got to spend a late fourth, early fifth round pick on him.

I do like him better in Roto leagues than in points. Just hits the ball extremely hard. 38 home runs last year, 16 steals between the minors and the majors. And his 402 BABIP last year was high, and you'll hear people referenced that. But his BABIP has always been high. I mean, consistently throughout the minors, 389 last season at AAA, 323 in AA in 2018 was not so much. But outside of that, 386 in high A ball, it was 422 in single A. So, you know, three out of four of his minor league seasons, the Babbup has been consistently high. and that's because he does hit the ball as hard as he does.

He's, you know, among second baseman, his stack cast numbers basically ranked at the top there. Strikes out a decent bit, mentioned that, but better roto player, I think, you know, over the course of a full season, someone that can approach 30 homers with 10 to 15 steals, I think that's a very useful player with, you know, probably a 270 batting average, not the batting average that we saw last season. Yeah, and the thing about Kasten Hero that I don't think, it's mentioned often is the strikeouts were only an issue once he reached the majors. It's not like he had a high strikeout profile through his minor league career like the way Fernando

Tatis did. So I'm not even sure like that's just something we have to live with for him. He may show improvement there in addition to everything else. And of course it goes a lot later than Tatis. Definitely welcome. A lower strikeout rate is welcome here. Scott the Pittsburgh Pirates. You know these are one of those bad teams where I actually find myself drafting a lot of their players. Obviously, you know, Joe Musgrove and Chris talked about Mitch Keller, but they actually have some interesting bats too here, Scott. Who do you find yourself drafting on the Pirates? Do they have interesting bats?

I like Brian Reynolds. I like Gregory Polanco where he goes. You know, Josh Bell, I think we all still have him consensus top 10 first baseman. So, yeah. Three bats on a bad team. I would say that that's probably more than the other bad teams we've talked about. Yeah, you're definitely higher on Polanco than I am. Reynolds, I think, is, I think it's basically just Bell and Reynolds for me in a standard mixed league.

And Bell is the one I draft most often. I do like Mitch Keller, who Chris highlighted. I think he has a lot of upside that is going to get lost in the seven-something ERA he had last year. But Bell, I usually go into a draft thinking Bell is going to be. my first basement. And of course, it doesn't always work out that way. But I think people of, you know, considering he was an MVP caliber bat in the first half, a guy who you'd project to maybe drafting round two, basically quarterly last year, every quarter of the season, I would project the first two rounds for the upcoming season. And at the midway point, I had Josh Bell going in my

second round. Obviously, he struggled in the second half, but in a way that wasn't really supported by the data and he's explained it by saying he uh he started timing up for breaking balls which made him late on the fastball and it wasn't even the entire second half that he struggled i think he hit like eight or nine home runs in august so he started to rebound there um and i just think while i don't necessarily think the first half version is what we're going to see over a full season. I think it's more likely he takes a step forward from last year's final numbers than back. And you can usually get him in like round six or seven. So that seems like a good deal to me. Yeah, Joe Musgrove is the pitcher I draft from the Pirates, the player I draft from the Pirates the most.

And I've talked a lot about him. His ADP is 216.8. He is the 61st starting pitcher off the board. And I have him as my SP 45. It was a very small sample size last year, the final four games. He raised his fastball velocity up two miles per hour to 94. He started using his curveball more. They have a new pitching coach in Oscar Marin, who is more analytically driven than someone like Ray Searidge was. So I'm hoping Joe Musgrove uses his secondary pitches more, which I have faith in those pitches,

and his fastball velocity that spike actually carried over this year in the spring. If you don't believe me, just read Mike Axis's piece on CBSSports.com because it was absolutely fantastic, but I have talked a lot about Joe Musgrove. Let's move on to the St. Louis Cardinals, Scott. This is a team that I am not all that interested in, just in general,

but who do you find yourself drafting here for the St. Louis Cardinals? Hmm. Yeah. There's a bunch of guys I'm Luke Warm on. Gallegos, like Chris said, is probably the one I end up drafting most. I am, I just think for some reason, I'm convinced that reason will rain and he'll end up being the closer, the full-time closer, even though we don't have many assurances of that. I just think he's clearly the best reliever, and they have an obvious opening there with Carlos Martinez moving to the rotation. So he's technically the one I draft most often. But I do like Carlos Martinez, given his solid history as a starter and the fact he's

relief pitcher eligible this year. I do like Tommy Edmund in a draft where I got kind of left out of the steals run early. I end up drafting him a lot. I think he has potential to be like a 30 steals pace guy. I, a couple drafts recently I've taken Dylan Carlson, confident he's going to have a spot in lineup with the universal DH and thinking there's five category potentials here and he's not that expensive. So anytime a top prospect who seems like he has, he's in line for a job, doesn't get a lot of hype and gets pushed down in drafts. I think it's, I think it's a gamble worth taking. I mean,

you never really know how high the ceiling is for a prospect until he's, until he's in it. And Carlson could be one of those guys who just takes the league by storm. year, I think. So those are some cardinals I'm interested in. I'm not sure I draft any that often, but they're all interesting to me. The last name you mentioned there is the right answer. Scott, Dylan Carlson, 291.2 ADP, just going way too late. I think the inclusion of the Universal DH and expanded rosters obviously helps his chances. I think the Cardinals need him in their lineup. I think that this is a subpar lineup. And obviously, we don't know how he's going to perform at the major league level,

but I would think that he helps it more than someone like Dexter Fowler, for example, 26 homers and 20 steals while batting 292 across AA and AAA as a 20-year-old last year was Dylan Carlson. He did have 10 hits in 32 at Bats this spring with more walks than strikeouts. So show that he can kind of handle his own, obviously going up against some fellow minor leaguers there throughout spring training. But yeah, interested in Dylan Carlson for sure. Before we answer your questions, we want to remind

everybody to rate, review, and subscribe to Fantasy Baseball today on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen. Also, tell a friend. Just tell one friend about the show so we can continue to grow. Thank you, everybody. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Continue to send us your questions, Scott. This one comes from Mike in Ohio. Hey guys, I am the

commission five leagues and four of them being cash leagues where they have already paid do you advise us to continue on with it being a cash league or should they return the money and play for free this season let's answer that question first what do you think about that scott because i feel like many people are probably in that predicament yeah i don't i don't think this is a good decision a commissioner should make unilaterally. I think this is, and I'm not generally in favor of polling the league for like rule changes because I think rules are meant to work in conjunction.

And if you just change one thing without considering the ripple effect, you know, you could end up, you could end up in a suboptimal situation. But this is people's money. And I know, I don't want to tell you what you should do with them. I think it's,

I think you have to leave it up to the league. Yeah, I think you have to come to some sort of, of, I don't know if you'll get consensus, but obviously whatever the majority says, I think, should rule here when you're talking about people's money on the line. But he also asks, can you give me and others some kind of advice on how to run our league this season? 50 games barely gives the pitcher's time to get their arm stretched out. All but one of my leagues have already drafted.

And what should or can we do about players like Blake's Nell and others possibly sitting out? that's a little bit harder to know because we won't know that until kind of everyone either opts into the season or ops out. But you mentioned this yesterday, Scott, with the 50 games,

you talked about potentially running a tournament-type scenario? Yeah. First of all, we don't know that it's only going to be 50 games. I still kind of doubt it. It seems more likely now than it did yesterday

when we talked about it. But there's... The players would be be compelled to do that, which would create potential labor issues down the line. So I don't think it's, I think it's more of a negotiating tactic than anything else talking about the 50 game season. But we'll see. Maybe it does happen. If it does happen, then I think there's, in a head-to-head league, you're definitely going to have to think about revising the way the schedule works, the playoffs works. I mean, there's just not enough time to have a regular season in a

playoffs in a head-to-head league if it's only a 50-game season. Rotel League, I don't think you have to change much. Head-to-head league, yeah, either you do a lot of like double and triple-headers every week or you make it kind of a tournament with that everybody's a part of. And I don't know that I'd make it a one-and-done tournament necessarily. Maybe if you did each have each matchup last two weeks instead of the usual one, that would be something I'd consider. The player question, I think, is a more complicated one.

If you already drafted, personally, I'm inclined to just roll with what I've already drafted and just, you know, accept that it's going to be a little more of a challenge this year. It's going to be anyway because of the randomness involved in a schedule show so short. And, you know, if I'm satisfied with the way my team came out, I don't want to have to put it together again. But that might just be a personal insecurity issue of mine and maybe not what the average person would want to do.

I think a 50-game season, the changes would be so extensive that I could at least... I think it's a good argument for just redrafting, but that's another situation where you're going to have to feel out your league and go with what they have a taste for, what your own league participants have a taste for. I do tend to agree with you that it's more of a negotiating tactic than anything.

I don't think that we'll actually get a 50 game season, but it remains to be seen. The next one comes from Roberto. Hello, Barry, Robin, and Maurice. Hmm. I don't know that one. These are the Beegis, apparently. Okay. The Beegis. I'm sure Chris would have got that one if he was still on here.

Adam? No, I don't think Adam would have gotten the Beegis. replacement for Archer, Griffin Canning and Justice Sheffield are free agents. Who should I pick up 12-te-to-head stats? Maybe he meant to head-to-head categories. Let's assume a 12-te-head-categories league here, Scott. Would you rather have Griffin-Canning or Justice Sheffield? I'm going to say Sheffield because of all the uncertainty over Griffin-Cannings elbow,

the fact he has a UCL situation going on and is trying to get through it without surgery. I just, I don't really want anything to do with him. And Sheffield, somebody, you know, if both of them were coming in with similar health situation, I would like Canning more, but I can get excited enough about Sheffield and his potential with the slider and the introduction of a two-seamer that's going to help him throw more strikes, hopefully.

Yeah, I'd take Sheffield. Yeah, I would agree with you on that one. And we spoke about Sheffield a little bit yesterday with our favorite players to draft in the AL and NL West. He was one that we talked about for the Mariners. So, yeah, I'm with you on that one. I am interested in Justice Sheffield here as a Chris Archer replacement. The final one that we'll get to today comes from Trenton Andrew 7 on our Apple podcast reviews.

And I've got to say, Trenton, I know what you're doing. Very, very sneaky, sir. He keeps changing his podcast reviews so that he can ask more questions, which is perfectly fine. Or you can just email us Fantasy Baseball at CBSI. We'll answer your question. And five by five, 15 team dynasty. Grade the trade, Scott. Give up Yassiel Pug, who we still have no idea where he's going to play.

I don't know if people remember. I mean, he's not on a team right now. No, and we don't know where Rale is going to have. It does. And Universal D.H. helps. But I think the team that probably has shown the most interest is San Francisco Giants, and that's not really a great landing spot. But nonetheless, give up Yassio Pueg and your boy, Lorenzo

Kane, no E on the last name there, for Sunny Gray. He receives Sunny Gray. So Yasiel Puegan, Kane for Sunny Gray in a 15-team, Roto Dynasty. This is an A. This is an easy one. You're getting the best player back in the deal. The dynasty context, I mean, you're trading away old guys in Puegan, especially Kane. Gray's not especially young, but he's I assign him more longevity than I assign either of those two,

especially since nobody seems to want Pueig around the league. Yeah, this is an easy one. Yeah, I would say a minus. I guess there's still a chance that Yassio Pueg can return and make some noise. We've seen him have some success the past couple of seasons, but that's the only knock on the trade. I do like it a ton.

Sunny Gray is 30 years old and still show signs of, you know, being very useful, even while pitching in Cincinnati. We talked about him a little bit earlier. So, yeah, I'm with you. I like this trade a decent amount here, Scott, but that'll do it here. Fantasy baseball today for Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thank you all for listening.

We'll be back again on Friday. Bye-bye.