Players We Love In 2025 💘 Plus Nick Pivetta to the Padres! (2/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
00:31Cocoa Friday and welcome in to fantasy baseball today on Valentine's Day February 14th.I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White and Chris Howers.Love is in the air.But you know what else is in the air?Baseball, pitchers and catchers, spring training.It's a fantastic time of year.You got to love it.Today on the show, it's the players we love for this upcoming season.
00:54A hitter and a pitcher for each of us.Maybe Scott will have the wandering eye.You'll have to wait and see.Plus, a lot of news from the week.Nick Pavetta to the Padres,Kenley Janssen to the Angels.We did an emergency podcast breaking downAlex Bregman to the Red Sox yesterday,
01:10but there has been a lot going onand a lot to talk about.Let's jump right in.Chris, you will kick us off with a hitter.You love this season.Yeah, and just to be clear,I'm going first because I have no interest in followingwhatever Scott's got cooked up.
01:26It's always a whole thing.And I'm just not going to put that muchmuch work into it.So my player that I love is a player we've talked a ton about this offseason.And I think we all love him.Jordan Westberg.There's a monaja quad here with Jordan Westberg.We all love him.
01:47And just the reasons we love him are fairly straightforward, right?He hits the ball really hard.He's a premium athlete.He was already a very good fantasy option last season.And the breakout was kind of derailed by that.hand injury at the end of the season. It also, you know, maybe took him a little while toto really establish himself. But man, Jordan Westberg, everything looks about 90% as good asGunner Henderson. You know, the plate discipline's a little worse. The quality of contact's a little
02:19worse. The athleticism a little less impressive. But like, it's a really broad, well-roundedskill set. And obviously, Gunner Henderson is a first rounder. I don't think Jordan Westberg hasthat kind of upside. But if we were talking about Jordan Westberg this time next year as a secondor third rounder in fantasy coming off a 30 home or 20, 20 steel season where he hits 270,that really wouldn't surprise me very much. Yeah. So beforehand, we all text out our picks to each other.And you did break my heart a little bit, Chris, when you stole Jordan Westberg from me,but you're right. He is the player we all love collectively. That's the player. That's thedark side of Valentine's Day, Frank.
03:02You got to, we operate on a dibs system and you got to call dibs, you know.Yeah.If you pace out Jordan Westberg's numbers over 150 games, 25 homers, 88 RBI, both of whichwould have ranked second among second base eligible players.And you didn't even mention the fences moving in, right?Mm-hmm.The left field fences in Camden Yards, 13 feet closer to the foul pole and 26 feet.closer to left center for a right-handed hitter who delivers premium exit velocities.
03:36It's not hard to imagine him cruising right past those 25 home runs.Yeah, big into Jordan West.We're all crushing.We're all crushing on Jordan Westberg this year.And Scott mentioned second base eligibility.He has second and third base.I've noticed some of the mock drafts that I've done is when I get to the point of draftingJordan Westberg, sometimes I don't have second or third filled.
03:58and it kind of allows you some in-draft flexibility.You take him and then later on in the draft,whoever you think is a better value,a second baseman or third baseman,you can take that player and just kind of switchJordan Westberg to the other position.So it does allow you a little bit of flexibilitywithin the draft as well.
04:15The ADP for Westberg on Fantasy Pros is 92.5.I'll just read off some other hittersgoing just ahead of him,not necessarily same position.Jordan Westberg or Say a Suzuki just in a vacuum.Westberg for me.I'd have to consult my rankings.I'm going to say just off the cuff, Westberg.
04:35What about Westberg or Luis Robert?I do have Luis Robert a few spots ahead.You talk about Westberg potentially having 3020 upside.Well, Luis Robert did that two years ago.So we know that Louise Robert, I mean, he nearly went 40-20.So I'll go with the guy who's done it before.realistically like Westberg could steal a lot of bases he's fast enough he hasn't shown the inclination to do that so I don't I'm not even really counting that it could happen but I'm not really counting that in in my when I'm dreaming up Westberg's numbers Robert I have a head but I'm more likely to draft Westberg just a few others here Westberg or Alex Breggman who will wind up having the same position eligibility second or third in Boston nowI've got Westberg ahead.
05:28I have Breggman ahead.What about Westberg or Junior Camerro?Lots of excitement.Westberg.I have Westberg ahead, yeah.And last one, Westberg or Mark Vientos?Westberg.Westberg.
05:42It's going to be Westberg for me as well.A clean sweep.All right, Scott, the floor is yours.The hitter.You love this season.Guy, I've always had my eye on.I heard it.as soon as I saw his luscious hair cascading down his shoulders like a whisper into my soul bow bow my bow and mine alone there was a time when the cameras couldn't get enough of him he was a cover model a sensation a first rounder a third rounder a game changer suddenly cast aside because of a 225 batting average left for dead
06:23at pick 125.But I still see it.Every time I close my eyes, I see it.He batted no less than $2.90 in any of his first five seasons.And he's still batting a thousand with me.So why the 225 batting average?Only Bo knows for sure.They say Bichette happens, but not like in my dreams.
06:49They say his calves hurt.Oh, I bet they did.And like my former flame Clarissa, I think that explains it all.People say he's past his prime at 27, but they don't know how far I'd go for my bow.They don't know.Oh?What's this?The helmet's off, but no cascading hair.
07:13A boys cut bow.Oh, no.And with that, my eye wanders to the other side of the field, where I spot the newkid in town.I remember how he got there, how a club spurned by an ex-lover, needing some quick action atthe hot corner, received that one fateful call that made it all right again.Ring, ring, ring, ring.Hello, Houston?
07:40We have a problem.Oh, Chicago.We have a solution.The trade was consummated and always made right in the world.As I reflect on those events, it suddenly occurs to me.Why reread the book of Bo Bichet when you can have Esok, the EWalk?I'm talking Paredes, or I should say Paredes, because that's what I intend to throw for him once he's mine.His stat cast makes him out to be a cold fish with blue in every critical category,
08:19so that when I make my move in round 15,he won't know what hit him.But I'll know what he hit,a fly ball to the leftist part of left field,because that's what he always hits.And in Houston, that's pay dirt.Ever hear of the Crawford boxes?Oh, he'll be finding those again and again and again.
08:46And just a little bit to their left,only 315 feet away from home plate,there's a pole of some utility or another.I imagine him living there, just working it over,with such regularity that the Astros won't even remember old what's his name.Alex?This poll you may know is a foul pole,but I like to call it a fair pole
09:11because all is fair in love and W-A-war,W-W-A-R-war,both of which figure to rise in Houston,where there are no problems, only solutions.And he walks like Esauk.Fantastic.You see why I didn't want to go second.Chris, you made a fantastic decision.
09:33I don't want to follow that up.Great job, Scott.I mean, I hope Boba Shett takes care of those calvesbecause I can't have that being a problem again this season.It sounds like it's all good to go.But as long as I got this trait, Scott,Bo Bichette is the player you love.The Wandering Eye, of course, is for Esauk Perretz.
09:50It's for Isok Perrettes.Yes.So these are two players that, yes, I'm, I'm, my heart aches when I miss out on them on draft day.The value for Bo Bichette is just too good to believe.But the utility of Isok Peretas at his price may be even higher.I find I'm more likely to leave third base open for.Ferretta is than I am to leave shortstop open for Bichette.Yeah.
10:20And at shortstop, Bobeschett's ADP 127.5, which is, again, much different than where it's been in years past,where Bichette was a top 40 pick this time last year.Obviously, coming off a terrible season, there's nothing we can point to statisticallylast year, but Scott, you obviously referenced a lot of the numbers from previous years,good batting average.I think we'd expect, you know, modest power,maybe a little bit of speed.Entering a contract year in the prime of his career.
10:51I know that he's dealt with the CAF stuff,but we have seen other hitters randomly run in their career years.Willie Adomis and Aaron Judge.So that is a possibility here.I mentioned the ADP.You guys are willing to take him much higher, right?Top 100 pick on Boba Shet.Oh, yeah.
11:09Yes.In fact, I initially had him like 60.I sobered up when I saw how late I could get him, but even now, gosh, I'm 71.Yeah, I have 73, so I'm fully willing to take him, yeah.All right, so you guys would clearly take him over Matt McLean, right?Oh, yeah.Yeah, McLean's ADP is 104.5, so almost two rounds higher than Bichette right now.I mean, the next one up is Willie Adomis.
11:34His ADP, I think we've all kind of agreed is higher than we'd be willing to pay.We all have him as a bus the season.66.3 is the ADP.I mean, do you get that high?I have Bichette ahead of Bichet.Yeah, I have Adamis ahead of Bichet.Sounds like you don't love Baud Bichet.No, I do.
11:52Empty words, empty words.See, my parents are pushing Adamas on me,but my heart is really with Bichet.So I, and I've struggled with that onebecause it feels wrong to rankAdamas behind Bichette.but I don't actually want to draft Adama.Here's my thing.
12:13It feels wrong to rank Adamas behind Boba Shett, except for every, well, except for every year prior to this one.Yeah.When it hasn't even been close between the two of them.And as hopefully didn't get lost in the flowery language.Flowery, that's one word for it.I think Bichette's just going to be bounce all the way back.He was hurting all of last year, and it was so out of character, and he's still only 27, and I just, I don't have any reason to believe it was just one of those weird seasons that happens to players sometimes.Yeah, I brought this up before. I will just play devil's advocate on Boba Shet. I don't believe this to be true, but it feels like there are a lot of detractors for Bobeshet this season.
13:02His right leg has suffered a lot of injuries. You know, he's dealt with the calf multiple times. He's had issues.with his right knee. He's had issues with the right quad. So there is a chance that his right leg isjust not 100%. Like maybe there's been too much damage done and he's just not the same playerphysically as he once was. And if that's the case, then, you know, maybe he lets us down. I don'tbelieve that, but some people seem to believe that. It's possible. But we generally don't assume playersare just finished at 26 years old because of calf injuries, right? Like that, that's not really the way wetend to think about aging curves for players.And just to put a fine point on it,
13:43the closest that Willie Adamas and Boba Chet's prices have ever been before this seasonis 80 spots in ADP,according to NFB historically NFBC historical ADP.Last year, or no, 2023, Boba Shet was the 13th player, 13.95.And Willie Adamas was 93.7.and five.So just one year is enough to completely flip flop that to what's Adama's going?Like 60 picks ahead of Bichette on average?
14:19Yeah.Yep.Not in my drafts.Yeah.That one just, it feels like a just obvious overcorrection.And I, I'm happy to take any kind of discount on Bichette, anything after the top 80, I think, is a,is a nice discount.I think in the most recent mock draft we did, the 15 teamer.
14:38He was a sixth round pick, so he was like 82 probably.That's perfectly fine.And I made this point before, but the counter to those saying,oh, maybe his legs have just gone bad,is that he's in the final year of his contract.And the Blue Jays did not entertain.I mean, I guess there were some conflicting reports this offseason,but they came out early in the offseason.
15:08and said we have no interest in trading Bo Bichette.And I don't, we never heard rumblings of any offerthat came close to satisfying them.So if they really thought he was damaged goods,they would have pushed for that harder for sure.All right, let's take a quick break.Just a programming update.We will not be live on YouTube this Sunday night,
15:27but we will have our SP preview part twothat will publish on Monday morning,both on YouTube and in your audio feed.Thanks to everybody who is watching this video.Make sure to hit the like buttonand subscribe to the channelif you haven't already.We'll take a quick break.
15:40We'll break downAsoc Paredes a little bit more right after this.Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.Happy Valentine's Day to everybody out there.The players we love for the 2025 season.We left off with Scott's amazing poemslash monologueslash revelation of love.
15:59And Esok Paredes was one of those players.Dream landing spot winding up in Houston.Two years removed from hitting 31 home runs.Last year down season.Obviously, Chicago was just a terrible fit for Esauk Paredes' swing,and now winds up in probably the best landing spot possible in Houston.The ADP is 195.8, I believe we all rank Paredes inside of our top 150.And Scott, I'm with you.
16:25I mean, in draft that we do, hopefully we're both not waiting to fall back on Paredes,but if I miss out on on the third round guys like Riley and Machadoor Jordan Westberg in the middle rounds,I have no problem just waiting and hoping to get Issoc Paredes as my starting third baseman.Yeah, I actually took him in our recent 15 team Rotomach, where my overall goal was to play it safe.I would to take fewer risks than I've taken in such a deep league in the past.And yet I was, I took Esauk Paredes to be my third baseman and my lawfully wedded wife at pick 138.And that's because he was my best third baseman on the board, on the board still.
17:14And I didn't want to get left out at that position.And I think he'll level up to it.Like I said, I think he's going to make those Astros fans forget about Alex,because I think the numbers he's going to put up with the way his swing is perfectly tailored for that ballpark are going to be comparable to what Astros fans got used to seeing from Breggman in more recent years.And to make the point,According to the expected home runs by park on Stackast, Houston's the best park for him.He would have had 29 career home or 79 career home runs.That's the highest of any park in baseball that's tied with Cincinnati.
17:51It's ahead of the White Sox.It's ahead of Tampa Bay where he had that 31 homer season.He would have had 26 homers last season.If he played his full season in Tampa, he would have had 21 last year.If he played his full season in Chicago with the Cubs,he would have had 13.So yeah, it's a perfect landing spot for Paredes.He's got great plate discipline.
18:15He makes a ton of contact.He makes a lot of, not a lot of loud contact, but a lot of ideal contact.His launch angle sweet spot is very high.So he's got a consistent launch angle.He's able to do what he does or what he wants to do very consistently.So I think he is someone who is, yeah,I think a 30 homer season, a 250-ish batting average is well within the realm of possibility for ESOC Paredes, where he's done it before.He did it in Tampa, which was as shallow at the corner, 315, around that pole.
18:53But obviously, it doesn't remain as shallow going across left field as Houston does with those Crawford boxes.Yeah, I mentioned the ADP is 195.8.for Paredes, which is still way too late.Some names going just ahead of him,would you rather have Paredes or Luis Renhifo?Paredes.Peratus.What about Paredes or Max Muncie?
19:17Paratus.Even in a points?Easily.Even in a points?Yeah, even in a points.Because Muncie, I don't think, is a full-timer anymore.What about Paredes or Alec Bohn?Peratus.
19:27Paratus or Eugenio Suarez?Paratus.Chris?Peratus.I did think about taking Suarez as my place.player I love, but I didn't want to make Scott mad.This is supposed to be a day of, this is supposed to be a day of love.We don't need Scott's two minutes of hate for A.
19:46and you would have had Frank and jealous rage overJordan Westberg and me and disgust over Aeohenio Suarez.Last two names, Paredes or Jake Berger?Paratus.I think I have Paredes ahead.And lastly, Paredes or the man who left, Alex Bregman.Bregman.Yeah.
20:12Although original Coke.This one might really come down to what your team needs at that point.Because I do think Paredes is going to be a better power hitter and potentially a much betterpower hitter.I think Bregman might have 30 points of batting average on him.Yeah.I mean, going to Fenway, we talked about this last night, Chris.We could maybe get like a 27, 280.
20:35batting average out of Bregmanwith that green monster in left field.All right, let's move on to the hitter that I love this seasonand if it's not going to be Jordan Westberg,someone else I love is Wilson Contreras.Big news this offseason that Wilson Contreras will play first base.He still has catcher eligibility.That makes him a cheat code for fantasy this season
20:55because he's going to get every day at batsand that's going to give him an advantage at the positionbecause there's not many players who play every day.I mean, there's Salvador Perez,You know, there's going to be William Contreras up top.Adley Ruchman.Adley Ruchman.You, Cal Raleigh plays a lot too.
21:10But there's really only a handful of guys that play almost every day at the catcher position.And as long as he's healthy, I think Wilson Contreras is going to be one of those players.He still is a great hitter when he's been on the field last year.262 batting average.15 home runs, four seals in 848 OPS.That's really strong at the position.Projections on fan graphs have them from between 125 and 140 games.If he gets that much playing time, we're probably looking at 25-ish home run, 6 to 8 steals,
21:40really good counting stats with a batting average that doesn't really hurt or help you in that 260 range.Still crushes the ball.He's not perfect.Honestly, for a catcher, 260's downright helpful.Yeah, yeah.I was going to bring up, look, he's 33 years old.There's some underlying plate discipline stuff.Swinging strike rate was really high last year.
22:00He's dealt with a lot of injuries.Definitely like some lower leg stuff.And I'm not really sure that gets better as you age.But my hope is that moving over to first base, not having to crouch all the time can help him stay healthy.It's not a guarantee, but my hope is that it helps.Are you guys in on Wilson Contreras this year?Yeah.I thought about him.
22:19I actually thought about just doing a Wilson Contreras Yvonne Herrera duo as my players I love,because I really think just combining the two of them is one of the best moves you can make in a two-catcher league.especially. I think in the 15 teamer we just did, I took Yvonne Herrera, but not Wilson Contreras.But I think I took William Contreras in that one. So that's even better, actually.But yeah, I love both of them. I think they're both great. Look, I think this is the thing.At his age and given his injury history, you should not just expect Wilson Contreras to get 650 playedappearances and play 162 games, right?Like he has a long injury track record and it's not just, okay, he's not catching now.
23:07He'll stay healthy.You can get hurt playing first base.You can get hurt running the bases.But what I don't expect to happen this year is the fractured left forearm that cost him a monthand a half last year.Yeah.Like the other injuries, I think the right finger fracture at the end of the season was hitby pitch, if I'm remembering correctly.
23:27Yep.That can happen.What isn't going to happen is him trying to frame a pitch and getting hit with a back swing and breaking his arm.So it's that's the stuff that I think is less likely to happen.You can still get hurt running bases or whatever.But I think the injury, the performance, the playing time baseline is now higher for Wilson Contreras.The ADP for Wilson Contreras, 102.5, would you guys rather have him or Will Smith?Contreras.
23:59Would you rather have him or Cal Raleigh?I would rather haveI think I have Cal Raleigh higher.Yes.But as a first baseman,Wilson Contreras has more upside.As a first baseman,Wilson Contreras,
24:15if he's able to get around 150 games,he could be the top catcher in fantasy.It's not outside the realm of possibility.You know what?I'm going to disagree with myself.Wilson Contreras,I have him ranked higher than Cal Rale.He's my number five catcher.
24:26Yep.Same.I have him ahead of Cal Raleigh.I think Contreras versus Salvador Perez is a little bit closer.At this stage in their career, it's probably not even fair to say.But I think Contreras might have a little bit more upside if he could stay healthy.But Salvi plays so many games, and he's been so reliable.And he's been pretty durable in his career as well.
24:43So I don't really want to bet against Salvi.I think I'll probably draw the line there.But Wilson Contreras is going almost 20 picks behind Cal Rale in 80P.So you could wait a little bit there just outside of the top 100 and grab Wilson.Gutierrez. All right, let's move on to some news of the week. And we'll hit this and then we'llcome back to pitchers we love a little bit later on. There's a lot of news going on, obviously.Pitchers and catchers, people showing up to spring training. We're learning about injuries.We didn't know that happened. We're getting signings that are happening as well.
25:14Scott, I didn't know if just up top you want to share a quick thought on Breggman to the Red Sox andChristian Campbell seemingly losing out on an early season opportunity.Yeah, so Jeff Passon came out.late last night and said the plan was to play him at second base.Obviously, these are all messages communicated through the back channel since the deal isn'tofficial yet.But I'm seeing today from Red Sox beat riders that there's still speculation Devers couldbe impacted by the signing.
25:48And, you know, the safer thing for the Red Sox to say right away is second base becausesaying third base for Bregman raisesa bunch more questions.I think it'skind of late for trades.People are already reporting for spring training,but we saw a couple of major late tradeslast spring, and I think something could happen here still
26:09that makes Bregman a third basement.So I wouldn't count out Christian Campbell yet,and I wouldn't count on Bregman being a second basement just yet.All right, we did get a few other signings.Plus Christian Campbell is capable of playing like left field.He's capable of playing like all over.So even if he gets blocked out at second base for now,it'll be a race between him and Roman Anthony for who claims the first outfield opening.
26:31I was actually surprised.He played almost as much shortstop as second base last year even.Yeah.And Trevor's story has an extensive injury history.Yes.True.So that's, I think opportunities will be there.Whether it's because of trades, whether it's because of attrition, something will go wrong.
26:49Somewhere, I mean, Rafael Devers had injuries to both shoulders last year.I don't want anything bad to happen to him, but there should.be opportunities. It's justprobably not opening day.All right, Brighman wasn't the onlybig news of the week. We had Nick Povettato the Padres on a four-year,$55 million deal, and Nick Povetta turned
27:1032 years old today.Happy birthday, Nick Povetta, if you're listening.Povetta, we've talked about him for years,man. He has the swing and miss. He has the underlyingnumbers. It has not translated tosustained success. Chris, do you thinkthis is the time.Finally, Povetta
27:28can maybe figure it out in San Diego.Let's not be dumb.We,let's not like,let's not do that.It's a positive park shift.Like, oh, this is,come on,
27:41come on Charlie Brown.You know she's going to pull the,the dang football away from you.That being said,it's the same analogy in the,the tracker.That being said,if you,
27:55view it in the appropriate context, which is not, boy, Nick Povetta gets a lot of strikeouts,he can be an ace. He's not going to be an ace. If you don't view it that way, I think he can stillbe an incredibly useful pitcher. And I think this is probably his best chance to actually be a veryuseful pitcher because there are two near certainties about Nick Povetta. He's going toget a lot of strikeouts.I'll say three.There are three near certain.He's going to get a lot of strikeouts.
28:30He's going to give up a lot of home runs.And he's going to have a pretty good whip probably.The last two seasons,113 and 112, that's actually very useful.He made huge gains with control last year.And really it was in the second half of the prior year.Yeah.And now he's going from playing his entire career in two of the better hitters parks
28:55in baseball. Philadelphia ranks as the seventh best, Boston the second best in Park Factor,according to Stackass, to one of the best pitchers parks in baseball in San Diego,and specifically one of the best pitchers parks for home runs. So I do think that there is a chancethat if you just draft Nick Povetta expecting an ERA around four and a lot of strikeouts and apretty good whip, you have a chance to be pretty happy with him in aa way that like has not been true in the past because people have talked themselves intoNick Povetta is going to take a big step forward and be a really impactful pitcher.I don't think that's going to happen.
29:34But if you understand what you're getting into, he is a rare later round pitcher who canactually help you in whip.And I'm ranking him now right next to Spencer Arigetti, like two very different versionsof a similar type of player.I think they're both going to get a lot of strikeouts.Aregetti, I think, has some ERA upside that Pivotta doesn't.Aragetti probably going to struggle with WIP in a way that Pavella won't.And so I think you get to the 15th, 16th round in a 12-team league,
30:10and you start to look at, you know, hey, I need some strikeouts.I want some upside at starting pitcher.I'm safe and whip.Okay, I'll take Arrogati.I need some whip help.Okay, I'll take Povetta.but I think he can be a useful starting option now.I mean, you pretty much covered it all,
30:29but just to underscore.I was trying to.A couple points here.Because I had my initial reaction is,okay,I'm not going to do this again.But then the more I looked into it,same thing.
30:42The more I looked at,I was like,well,you know,it is a pitcher's park for the first time.And now that he's addressed the control issue,the main problem is home run.So you get them in a good pitchers part.
30:57These are some stats from,I'm getting these from Joseph Camisa on Twitter.It would take me a long time to confirm if they're right,but just eyeballing it.It looks like they're right.So we're going with it since 2023,the past two seasons basically.Nick Povetta ranks fourth in Sierra,
31:1613th in batting average against,fourth and K per nine,fifth in K percentage,fifth in K-minus walk rateand first in Stuff PlusI don't know whose version of Stuff Plus that isyeah I moved him up to about 60thin my starting pitcher rankings
31:34about 20 spots with this newsand I'm kind of excited to draft him againand guess what you can draft himthe ADP is 246.8 I have to guessthat that's going to rise at least a little bit nowgoing over to San Diego but some other pitchersin that range would you rather have Pavetta or Walker Bueller?Pavetta.
31:51Povetta.What about Povetta or Nick Lidolo?Povetta.I think I have Povetta higher, yeah.What about Povetta or Jesus Lazzardo?Povetta.Wow.Okay.
32:05You need to move up Povetta, Frank.I probably do.Here's one.I still like Lazzar.Like, I would take Lazzardo over him.I'm looking at my rankings.I only have one Tampa Bay race pitcher ahead of Nick Povetta right now.And
32:21it's a guy who in my SP preview piece,which is coming out probably on Thursday afternoon,but maybe Friday morning on CBSSports.com,the one pitcher I have ranked ahead of himis the guy that I said might be this year's Walker Bueller.And that's Shane McClan.So it's not a strongly held opinion there.All right, let's take our final break when we return.
32:44We'll talk about Kenley Jansen to the Angels.We'll do that right after this.Welcome back in Fantasy Baseball today.some news and notes. The Angels signed Kenley Jansen to a one year $10 million deal. So much for Ben Joyce,I guess. Jansen still saw the last year, 335 ERA 108 whip, 27 saves. He ended the season on theaisle with right shoulder inflammation. Scott, where did you move Jansen up to in your reliefpitcher rankings? I moved him up to, I think a couple spots ahead of where I had Joyce21st. So in between Ryan Presley and actually ahead of Alexis Diaz, I think Kenley Jansen,
33:25you can pencil them in for 25 saves and it may be closer to a 30 save pace.If, you know, by saying 25, I'm kind of factoring in an IL stint in there.It's possible he becomes trade bait at the deadline and maybe is moved so that he's not a closeranymore, but I don't know that he's anyless secure in that role than likea Ryan Presley or a Carlos Estevez,who I also rank ahead of him is.So I think he belongs in that range.
33:51I am not really shedding tears over Ben Joycebecause I'm not sure he was actually the oneI understand he throws very hard,but it wasn't the most functional velocity,meaning he wasn't even a strikeout per inning guy.The ERA, he managed to keep that downwhere you want it for a closer,but I'm just not sure with increased exposure
34:10that he would necessarily hold up in the role.And we have a lot of evidence to suggest Kenley Jansen will.I think if you haven't already drafted yet and taken Ben Joyce,you can consider this move a net positive.The ADP for Kenley Jansen, 257.8 is the 27th reliever off the board.Have to imagine that's going to move up,not a substantial amount, but probably closer to 200-ish,I would imagine there for Jansen.
34:38Scott, you mentioned some names,but I'll just go around real quick.and ask each of you, would you rather Jansen or Ryan Presley?Jansen?I thought I thought I was the low guy on Presley, but I do have Presley head.Yeah, I have Presley just ahead as well.Jansen or David Bednar?Bednar.
34:56Bednar has a higher ceiling, but I'll take Jansson.What about Jansson or Carlos Estevez?That's the other guy I have Janssen ahead of.I have Estevez ahead too, but that Estevez Presley-Jansen group is kind of a block.me. And Kenley Jansenor Jordan Romano. Romano.I have Romano at the end ofthat one, but that's one that like
35:18spring training is going to tell me the story there.If he looks good, then we can move him up.He's better. It's just he's coming offand elbow injuryplagued year. Same with David Bettner.It wasn't an elbow injury, but it wasa lat. Obliq. Obliq.But he was just a disaster all year.
35:34So it's like if those two guyslook good, it would be fairly easy tomove them up. ButI do have Jansen ahead right now.All right, lots of other news items.I'm going to quickly just run through.If there's anything that you guys want to touch on,just interrupt and we'll talk about it.
35:49No surprise,but Clayton Kershaw has agreed to a one-year dealto return to the Dodgers.He's 37-year, will be 37 on opening day.He underwent surgery on both his left knee and left toeduring the off-season.Velocity was down last year.Results weren't great.
36:03I think it's mostly a stay-away.Orioles GM, Mike Elias said Felix Batistahas a, quote,very good chance of being part of the Oriolesopening day roster. Bautista likely won't be clear to pitching games until late in springtraining. And remember that not only did Bautista have Tommy John surgery in October of 2023,he also had an elbow debridement and an ulnar nerve transposition about a year ago in Februaryof last year. So seems a little bit risky on Bautista.
36:30Felix Bautista has been one of the most mispriced players on NFBC all offseason. Everyone,like, everyone on NFBC is terrified of injury.risks and yet Felix Batista has been like the number eight closer and a top 75 pick theentire time.I don't understand the thought process here.I know he was like the best closer in the world for one year before he got hurt,but we haven't seen him throw a pitch and he's had two elbow surgery since the last timehe threw a pitch on a mound.
37:00So I imagine.I'll just point out I have him seventh and Frank has him eighth.I have him 12th.I've been.I've been a low guy on him.And everyone's going to come to me.That's how this is going to work.As always, not as always.
37:17I'm wrong about things constantly.But I just thought that everybody was treating Felix Batista as if it was just a certainty that he was back to being that guy.And until we see him on a mound, I don't think you can can do that.So no, I have him 12th.And even that, like the.the problem is the guys behind him in my rankings are Trevor McGillwho has his own elbow issue at the start of spring training.Alexis Dia was the elbow confirmed? I saw it was undisclosed.
37:50Okay, sorry, it might have just, yeah, I don't know what it was specifically.Alexis Diaz, who I just don't think is very good.Ryan Walker, who had like 40 great innings last year, but I have no idea.You have Alexis Diaz ahead of Ryan Walker.Yes.You have Alexis Diaz way too high.You have him 14th.I have him 22nd. Maybe I have Alexis
38:10DS too high. That's not what we're talking about. We're talkingabout Felix Batista, who you haveway too high. Yeah, I may move it downto 9th. I said I have him 7th. I'll drop him behind Mason Millerand Ryan Walker, who by the waywas just confirmed as the Giants closer, not that I ever had any doubt.Yeah, I'm going to drop Batisa downto 11, so that would be behind Walker, Andres
38:30Munoz and Yuan Duran.Trevor McGill, we just mentioned. He's beenpushed back because he has some minorhealth issues.You know, it's been undisclosed what exactly he's dealing with, but hopefully we learn moreand that he'll be all right.Sticking with closers, Dave Roberts said Sunday that Tanner Scott will see the bulk of thesaved chances to begin the season, which I think is just interesting wording there.
38:52But did you guys move up Tanner Scott at all.I did.I did.This was much more clarity than I expected to get from Roberts about the closer situation.And yet it's not crystal clear.I imagine if a murderer's row of lefties is due up at the eighth,Tanner Scott will be coming out rather than preserved for the ninth.And I still imagine, based on the way Roberts has managed his bullpen the past couple years,
39:16that if Scott, with his sloppy control, has a week where he struggles, blows a couple saves,that Roberts won't hesitate to switch to Kirby Yates or someone else for a while.So I don't think it's, I don't think you should treat Tanner Scott.as if he's just the closer,but he is the clear front runner on the best team in baseball.And I think at the very least deserves to be drafted ahead of like David Bednar,Jordan Romano,and Lee Jansen,
39:46that whole risk group we talked about.He should be the second Tanner drafted in 2025.Tanner Bybee,then Tanner Scott,then Tanner Halk.Yeah, I would say that's fair.Spencer Steer could be limited to,Spencer Sear could be limited to D.H. duty at the start of spring training due to shoulder soreness.
40:06Apparently he dealt with this late last season. Still an issue.Don't really love that.Zach Netto said he received good news on his surgically repaired right shoulder and is ahead of schedule in his recovery.Still unclear if he'll be ready for opening day.But good news for you, Scott.I know you were talking up Zach Netto.The Phillies believe Bryson Stott's offense was limited by elbow soreness last season.He never went on the IL, but apparently dealt with this for most of 2024.
40:30Tiger's top prospect, Jackson Job has apparently added a curveball and a sinker to his pitch mix during the offseason with the hope of improving his strikeout rate.Scott, wasn't Job a curveball guy?Slider. He had a 3,000 RPM slider.Yeah, and I saw some video, I think it's from Chris Clegg quote tweeted someone else.There was video of Jackson Job throwing curveballs recently with over 3,000 RPM spin rate as well.He's a spin monster, yeah.Look, I'm just going to throw this out there.The entire fantasy community,
41:04we all might just be sleeping here on Jobbecause his ADP is 267.I think it's weird.Roki Sasaki is probably a better talent than Jackson Job.I think the 200-pick differenceor 160-pick difference between themprobably overstates the difference in talentgiven that we fully expect both to be in the opening day rotation.
41:30Yeah.That was the end. That was the end.I'm more likely to draft Job at cost than Sasaki, for sure.Speaking of pitching prospects, Chase Dolander could make the Rocky's opening day rotationif he performs well in spring training.He has yet to pitch in AAA.The Rangers have had internal discussions about the possibility of John Gray as their closer.Would make some sense, given their current construction at the moment.
41:54Yeah, he's either that or bring in Craig Gamble.I don't know.Yeah.Alex Coro mentioned Garrett Whitlock as a closer candidate, along with,with Liam Hendricks and Aroldes Chapman.Their chief baseball officer,Craig Breslow also said he's open to using a closer by committee.So not what we'd love to hear for the Red Sox.
42:13Spencer Horowitz had surgery to repair the extensor tendonin his right thumb and will miss six to eight weeks.Ret Louders' throwing program is being limiteddue to right elbow soreness.Alex Cobb is dealing with right hip inflammationand will be set back about a month.Bruce Bochie said it's possible Cody Bradford could open the seasonin the bullpen.
42:33Ew, don't like that.That might depend on how he looks in spring,how Kumar Rocker and Jack Lighter both look in spring as well.You know what?Let's get those five RP appearances two weeks into the seasonand then get him back in the rotation.I would love to have...Run it back, Bing.
42:48Spark Bradford two years in a row on the Scott White Dynasty League team.Let's go.Kyle Harrison said he's rediscovered velocity the springafter fixing issues with his delivery.He is in a camp battle with Hayden Birdsongfor the Giants SP5 spot.No surprise, but Anthony Rendonis scheduled to undergo hip surgery
43:07and is facing a lengthy absence.His career might be over.The team also signedJoanne Moncada this week,who I presume will now startat third base for the team.The Padre signed Bull, Jason Hayward,and my man, Connor Joe.
43:21They...Frank Love, Simpson, Connor Joe.Oh, yeah, on a Kokomo Friday,on a Valentine's Day.And they could form a platoonin left field the season.lastly the marlins we're all wearing marlin shirts it's like 50 minutes in we just brought it up nowmarlin shirts let's go uh the marlin side calquantral to a one year three and a half million
43:41dollar deal don't really think it matters red marlin shirt yep for valentine's day to be clearto be clear i was not wearing a marlin shirt but then i saw that you two both showed up with marlinshirts and i had to to pull you can tell if you're watching i've worn mine a few more times than these guyshave. This one's kind of the first time for me.Hasn't even been washed. This is a wellloved Miami Sugar King's shirt.Ah, this is Sandy Alcans for a shirt isy, by the way.So let's go, Sandy, opening day.
44:12All right, pitchers we love. We have like 10 minutesleft. Chris, I assumeyou don't want to follow Scott again.Scott, do you have another crazy poem thing?Of course. All right. So yeah, Chris,you can go first. We'll get, we'll get theopening act out of the way.Everybody can stand there with their arms folded
44:28waiting for the show that they really came for.The pitcher I love, I'm going to steal Frank's old fling.Brian Wu, who I didn't love for most of last seasonbecause he kept leaving every start after five inningswith a hamstring injury or forearm tightness or some kind of issue.He wasn't really a real starting pitcherfor like the first half of the season.And then something weird happened on August 1st.
44:57He just immediately started throwing 90 pitches per startand started going consistently deep into games.It was at least six innings in nine of his final 11 starts,I believe, if I'm my dad.Now, eight of his final 11 starts.He was getting strikeouts.The thing about Brian Wu is he's got maybe the best pair of fastballs in baseball.That is not an exaggeration.
45:25Brian Wu has all of the fifth.physical characteristics you're looking for from a four seamer.He gets low on the mound.He's got a good release angle.It gets a 27% whiff rate, but it also generates a ton of pop flies.The average launch angle against is 27 degrees.That is incredibly high.That's going to lead to some home run issues, but more weak contact, low batting average, stuff like that.
45:51And then on the other hand, he's got the sinker that has a zero degree average launch angle.It's really hard to have both an elite four seamer and an elite sinker.And Brian Wu has that.It gives him a phenomenal foundation on which to build.He gets weak contact with both of those pitches.He gets weak contact with the slider.The sweeper looked like a really good swing and miss and contact pitch last year.I think Brian Wu has the full arsenal to be every bit as good as Logan Gilbert and George Kirby.
46:21It's just that there are questions about his ability to stay on the mound.throughout 180 innings, something that Gilbert and Kirby both have done.I share those concerns.But he's, you know, 80 picks, 90 picks after both of them in ADP.His ADP is 138.4.I think that's a point in the draft where I'm willing to take that chance on a guy who,if he manages to stay healthy, I fully expect to be a must-start pitcher.And, you know, he's in the same range as Carlos Redan, who I also like.
46:53I thought about doing that, him for this one.but that feels like the right balance of risk and reward for those two guys in particular.I like both of their prices.Yeah, I think it just comes down to how you feel about that exact thing.Is the price here 138.3?Is that enough given the risk?For me, it's not.I actually wrote up Brian Wu as a bus this year just because it feels like a ticking time bomb.
47:19I feel like at some point something bad is going to happen with his arm.He went on the I.L in August of 23 with right forearm.inflammation, right elbow inflammation in March of last season. He left early in May witharm tightness. He was scratched from a start in mid-June. Then he was kind of babyed after that.So look, once he returned, you pointed out, Chris, like the numbers were great. I think he's atalented pitcher, but I just really worry that something happens here at some point. And so I'mstaying away, but I totally can. Yeah. Scott, anything on Brian Wu? Just that I really wantedto take him for this exercise because his name
47:54fits so perfectly, but I don't actually love Brian Wu,so I didn't pick him. I left him for Chris, and instead,I chose a real strapping fellow, a tall man with a short namethat might look good on a driver's license,a man who puts my hearts through the kinds of hoops you'd expect to seein Ringling Brothers Barnum and Bailey Ober.Some will sell him short due to his 398 ERA,but I look beyond ERA deep into the soul
48:28and see not one man but three.I see a league high fly ball rate and a home run ratethat's better than Shota Imanaga.I see a strike percentage that surpasses Bryce Miller,hip prevention, walk prevention.These are valuable traits surpassing those of some of the game's best.And yet the strikeout rate is all.over better than both. If Imanaga and Miller could have an ERA below three as they did,
48:59why couldn't over? If you remove just two starts from his game log, including opening day,early jitters, we'll get past those. His ERA drops to 318. You may say that's too convenient,but I'll always make excuses for my man. That's how I felt at first anyway. But we've entered a newERA era for ERA earned run average, one where everyone knows to look beyond it. And so I find thedrafting public looking upon Ober with the same letchery I am. And who am I to compete, really?I'm aware of my flaws. I know my reach. And that's when my wandering eye kicks in and stopson a 33-year-old who's always the bridesmaid, never the bride. No, Sean Maniah didn't do himselfany favors by committing the cardinal sin of chopping off his gorgeous hair. But he's won me over with
49:55his story. A man who already made his millions, who could have just coasted to the finish line,had a bit of a wandering eye himself last July. He saw some other girl who was better. He could havejust burned with envy, but instead he decided to get game. Chris Sales.game. It's all in the angles. And Manaya knows now to reach low with every throw. And the results werepure bliss, a 309 ERA, 0.85 whip, 9.9K per 9 over his final 12 starts. His swinging strike ratewent from 11% before the change to 14% after the change. They say imitation is thesincerest form of flattery.And I can say, sincerely, that I'm flattered by his imitation.
50:54And if I have my way, Manaya will be Mamaya, preferably as a fifth or sixth starter.But at the same time, so much more.Very good.Fantastic.Once again, Scott crushing it with the pitchers he loves this season.Bailey Ober and then the wandering eye for one, Sean Minaya.Bailey Ober, by the way, the ADP right now is 86.3.And Chris, I know you'd like to do the generic versus name brand article every year.
51:30I can clearly see a world where Bailey Ober and Blake, not Blake Snow,George Kirby are really not that far off.Yeah.Yeah.I think interestingly, there are kind of a few options for the generic.Eric version of George Kirby andBryce Miller is another one too.Bryce, well, I mean.
51:51I keep making the Imanaga and Bryce Miller andyeah, yeah, I keep comparing over to them.But you're right.George Kirby is kind of that same profile as well.Elite control, fly ball tendencies that keep the hits down,but also introduce some ERA risk.Average to above average strikeout rate.And I would say of the four,
52:14and I mentioned this in,my little spiel.I think Ober has the most strikeout ability of the four.Yeah, I mean, it was 27% right last year.I think the problem with Bailey Ober, and you see this in, like I was looking at, you know,Saras's rankings, he's got Bailey Ober buried.He's like 50th or something.He rates very poorly by the various stuff metrics.
52:37But I think the thing that both him and Shodim and Aragha have going for them is they are physically just outliers.over because he's six foot nine and there just aren't a lot of guys who are that big.And Imanaga,because he's on the opposite end of the spectrum,he's five to five foot 10 lefty.They're just hitters are worse against pitchers and pitcher types that they don't see as much.That's one of the things we're learning from a lot of this like at Arsenal and stuff metrics,uh,
53:08uh,research that's going on.And so you can look at it both ways because you can say they will continue to be unique andthey will continue to befuddle pitch hitters more than their stuff would make you think.You can also, and I kind of lean this way with Imanaga, the more hitters see them, the moretape is out there, the more they're able to, you know, I don't know what that batting cagetechnology is that they have now where they can simulate a pitcher's exact release pointand spin rate and all that stuff.
53:37I think it's a project machine.Yeah.You could make the argument that pitchers are going to be more comfortable with these guys,but I don't know.I think Ober makes sense as a target this yearjust because there are other similar types of pitcherswho had more success last yearand had really just lower ERAs.
54:00Like Imanaga who's going ahead of him,like Kirby who's going ahead of him.I personally think I prefer his teammatewho everybody hated this time last year, Joe Ryan.Oh, man.I think he's just a slightly better version of that.I think the stuff especially is better for him,but they have similar approaches.
54:22But I think Ober is fine at his price, yeah.And Joe Ryan's going 25 picks later than Ober right now.Would you guys rather have Ober or Logan Webb the season?Webb.Web.Would you rather have Ober or Max Freed?Oh, Freed.For sure.
54:39Yeah.What about over?I think Free's just way undervalued.This is why I had to have the wandering.I because I realized everybody was kind of on the same level with me.Yeah.With over,Ober.
54:48Yeah.Ober or Luis Castillo?Castillo.Castillo.You didn't get traded.And Ober or Bryce Miller?I have Bryce Miller just ahead.Yeah,
55:00I have Bryce Miller ahead too,but I think the profile is very similar.Yeah.As I said.All right.Well,let's quickly just talk about the price tag for Sean Minaya.His ADP is 172.8.
55:10So the market is not really,buying what happened towards the end of last season.So if you do believe that, you know, this change in arm slot and trying to replicateChris Sale is not even completely real because I don't think he'll do exactly that again.But even if it's partially real and he takes some of that into this season, like, yeah,like a mid-3s, ERA and like a strikeout per inning.Oh, it's real and it's spectacular, Frank.That's, I like a good story.
55:39I like when you, a player can describe what he changedand the change is this stark and it's this visibleand the change in results is this immediate.So you can really connect the dots easilyand see how it can continue.And I think Manaya in the entire player poolis the clearest example of that.He basically became a different pitcher.
56:03He was already an okay one, a pretty good one.A guy making millions.But he, in season,just totally changed his delivery to the point that I don't even know that we can compare him to the old Sean Manaya.And while I do think it's true that he won't have the element of surprise anymore,they'll have tape and they'll be able to get a better look at his pitches leading into his starts.And so maybe he won't have quite as much success.I think the game right now favors a low release point that he now, like he now has.
56:36and he's clearly learned how to do it.It's not like it's a struggle for him.It clicked for him right away.Yeah, so I'm into it.I think people are overlooking him just because he's 33 and he's been around for a while.And they're just kind of sizing up the numbers without really considering the backstory.Because I'd be super skeptical if it was just a numbers thing.But no, I'm buying it.
57:02And certainly at the price.You know, I have heard, trust me, baby, I've changed.changed from Shamanaya before.That's what I'll say.I'm not that guy anymore.Yeah.I kind of feel like we should have saved Scott for last so we could have the best for last.I don't really know that I don't have some great, you know.
57:21I think we saved the best pitcher for last arguably.It might be.Look, every year it feels like there's one breakout pitcher that a lot of the fantasy community is in on.And this year, I think that is Spencer Schwellenbach.The pitcher that I love, I have to thank you guys both for leaving him for me.I do appreciate that.Too much competition. I couldn't take it.I love them too, but I love him from afar.
57:44Yeah, look, he burst onto the scene last year.335 ERA, 104 whip.All the underlying ERA estimators were under 3.5.Good strikeouts.Over a strikeout per inning.Great control under two walks per nine.His 20.8% K-minus walk rate ranked 16th among pitchers with 120 innings,13 and a half percent swinging strike rate ranked 12.
58:07He's got six different pitches,two of which have a whiff rate over 40 percent,the curveball, the splitter.The one thing that does scare me is this big innings jump,which we talked about for a few other pitchers going earlier on,but from 65 to 168 and two thirds,that is a big jump, and I will acknowledge it kind of scares me.And the price tag, it's kind of like Lawrence Bueller.
58:30It's like a little bit higher than I would like it to be,but I just think the breakout.case is just so obvious.So around 95th overall,SP 26, basically every draft, I am gunning forSchwellenbach as my SP3, whenever I canget him around that 100 range.I'm a little concerned that
58:47there's going to be just kindof a pushback.No, that's not the best word for it, but basicallyjust like, it wasa little too much too fast.Zach Allen,24, right? Yeah. I mean, heseems like a pitching prodigy Shwellynbach because he was a two-way player in college.
59:07And this was his second professional season and he was throwing six pitches with elite control.Like he had been pitching for 15 years.He was a reliever in college too.He was just closing at Nebraska.So I like that's why you're like there's reasons to be excited about him are obvious.But it seems like in drafts there's no accounting for any kind of any kind of slipthere and I don't know.I find the price is just a little too high for me.
59:38He is a breakout candidate.I will probably not draft this year.I totally get that on the cost thereif you want to stay away as a result.I think some of the downside is baked inbecause if he kind of just does what he did last yearand picks up where he left offand does that over 180 innings,
59:56then he's probably close to an SP1,like a high end SP2, low end SP1.So I think that could be the upside.Maybe the downside is he takes a little bit of a step back,and we kind of settle in the middle,SP26 and ADP, which a tad high,but I'm still willing to do it.My draft plan is almost based around getting Schwellenbach as my SP3.
01:00:16So, yeah, I'm absolutely in.In love with Spencer Schwellenbach this season.We are going to rat there.For Scott and Chris, I am Frank.Thanks, thanks as always, for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify.And we will be back again next week.Bye-bye.
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