Fantasy Baseball Today - Players We Love 💘; Recent MLB Transactions (2/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 15, 2021

Happy Valentine's/Presidents Day! Scott kicks us off with a hitter he loves in Ke'Bryan Hayes (2:05). ... Chris loves Ian Anderson despite the small sample size (7:55). Is he worth the price? ... We hit a few more pitchers we love in John Means and Carlos Carrasco (15:17). ... Who are some players we've ALWAYS loved (20:16)? Can Byron Buxton put it together? Don't forget about Andrew McCutchen! ... We have reunions (26:55). Justin Turner returned to the Dodgers, James Paxton is headed back to the Mariners and Jake Arrieta signed with the Cubs. ... Can Andrew Benintendi revitalize his career following the trade to Kansas City (33:50)? ... Mark Melancon also signed with the Padres while Rich Hill is headed to Tampa Bay (38:18). Apparently Michael Kopech will get the opportunity to compete for the White Sox rotation during spring training. ... We wrap up with your mailbag questions regarding Tanner Houck, punting steals, and more (46:59)! ... Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on our Valentine slash President's Day special. Frank Stample joined as always by Scott White and Chris. Towers. We're taking a little break from our position previews today, but we'll hit third base shortstop and relief pitchers later on in the week. We've got a little fun show planned for you today, seeing as how it's actually Valentine's Day when we are recording and going live. We have players we love in 2021. Players we've always loved and lots of moves going on in the past week. We had Andrew Benintendi was traded. We have some relief pitchers signing, so we'll get to all of those. We do have some of your questions. Some of your emails. We'll hit those later on in the podcast.

Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. What is up, gentlemen? Scotty Swave on Valentine's Day. He's got the button down his shirt, the collar looking good. Scotty. How was your Valentine's Day? Oh, I think you know, based on how I'm dressed, Frank, how my Valentine's Day was. I think you know. Filled with candy, of course. Yeah. Yeah. How about you, Chris? Any any big, any candy for Valentine's Day? I have had not candy, but I've had some gushers fruit snacks. But not because it's Valentine's Day.

That's just because we have them around. That's just like a normal weekend. Yeah, that's just, you know, I just wanted a snack. I got some Reese's peanut butter cups from my parents. They still treat me like I'm 10, so I do appreciate that. They sent over the heart filled with all the chocolates. Of course. So welcome again to everybody who's joining us

and watching on YouTube and on Twitch. Scott, seeing as how you are so aptly dressed for the occasion, why don't you get started with a player you love in 2021? Ooh, do I have to narrow it down to just one, Frank? There's a lot of Scott White to go around. This was tough for me, too, admittedly. So look, if you're feeling generous, you want to give more than one player,

I'm fine with it. I'm fine with it. Well, I may have to pick a hitter and a pitcher. All right. You know. So since you're wearing a Pittsburgh shirt, Frank, I think I'll start with the hitter I love. And the hitter I love. Cabrion Hayes is the hitter I love.

I am so in love with Cabrion Hayes. He can do no wrong in my eyes. He can only do. Very right. I've kind of creative this narrative in my head. a fantasy, if you will, where he's that guy coming up through the miners who doesn't produce great numbers,

but he's always high on the prospect list. And you think, ah, it's just because of defense. Those guys don't know what they're talking about. But then as soon as he gets to the major leagues, those pitchers all throwing so hard and in the strike zone so often, I don't know, something clicks. and that kind of that

those inert talents that that like that athleticism really kicks in and he starts crushing the ball. That's what happened last year. That's the guy I always referred to this phenomenon was Francisco Lindor. It was exactly the same situation coming up through the minors. Like, this guy's not going to be a big deal in fantasy, right?

He's not putting up any numbers. But and the skill they, both shared that was good offensively, the offensive trait that shared by Lindor and Hayes coming up through the miners is they always made contact at a good rate. And if you have that skill, you have that foundational skill,

particularly in the era like right now where it's so easy to cultivate power, I think you could make strides really quickly. And I think we may have seen that from Hayes after he got called up more over the fence power than he showed in the miners, crushed the ball to all fields.

And he's like, he can steal bases too. It wouldn't shock me if he stole 15 bases. So I think a really safe bet for batting average, a non-zero for stolen bases. And like, he might hit 30 plus homers. He might be, we might look back. You know, we might be making out of rankings for 2022. And be thinking if Cabrion Hayes is like,

I don't know, third or fourth round type player. I think it's totally possible. and for whatever reason, he is being drafted like he never got called up last year. Like, it's amazing to see the gap between where Alec Bohm is drafted and where Cabrion Hayes is drafted. Because, like, Hayes clearly had the better numbers, the little bit we saw of him last year. And you could argue he was the better prospect to begin with. Yeah, that difference in ADP, Alec Bohm is going off the board at pick 108 right now. Cabrian Hayes, 41 picks later at pick 149.

Really big season for Hayes. He only played 24 games with the Pirates. Five homers, 17 runs scored, a 376 batting average, an OPS over 1,100. As we talk about with every sample size in 2020, it was small, it was especially small for Cabrion Hayes. But in 2019, also ran a little bit, which you mentioned, Scott, 13 steals and the minors.

He has a season with 27 steals. that was back in 2017 at high A ball. So yeah, I think there's a lot to like about Cabrion Hayes as well. Scott, who would you take just in a vacuum? You would take Hayes over Alec Bowman? I would, yeah, I actually rank Hayes ahead. It's pretty close, but obviously I'm going to wind up with a lot more Hayes just because he goes so much later.

And it's like I'd be happy to take him in every draft, no matter how many third basemen I already have. I think the upside is worth it at that point. And like, even if he doesn't, max out the upside, just making that much contact and playing every day, it's going to give him a pretty high floor, too, I feel like. So I think Hayes is being greatly overlooked, and I love him. I love him, Frank. He loves him. Chris, where are you at on Cabrion Hayes? I haven't heard your opinion of him yet. He's an interesting guy. What do you think? I'm skeptical.

And I think that's in keeping with, you know, my general philosophy, which is, you know, you know, when we see a real breakout and a real standout, outlier kind of performance in a small sample size, I'm always going to be especially, you know, skeptical of that. He says as he prepares to name a guy who threw 30 innings last season as his guy he loves. Yeah. Well, nice little tease there.

I don't like, I don't dislike him. I just, I need more. Like, I think there's another comp that you could make to keep Brian Hayes. and that would be Austin Meadows who was another guy who was a top prospect for the Pirates for a long time. The numbers didn't really match what his prospect ranking looked like

he got to the majors and started to show a little bit more of the upside. And he's actually someone I really, really like this year. And I assume Hayes was an early round draft pick which again, like that can happen where guys, you know, once they get called up,

they are much better than expected. He was a former first ground pick Cabrian Hayes back in 2015 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chris, you alluded to it. Who is a player that you love? And, you know, I always do all this pre-production stuff and I forget to actually use it. So who is a player that you love, Chris? Dean Anderson. And yeah, I know he's only thrown 32 and a third innings in the major leagues, plus 18 and two-thirds in the postseason. So actually, you know, that's like 50 innings. That's a pretty substantial sample says. That is a Zach Plizac.

sample size. No, for me, the biggest thing, and I kind of fell in love with him while doing my starting pitching preview, which will be out, probably on Tuesday on CVSports.com. The biggest thing for me is, you know, this was a guy who has had hype for a long time as a prospect, but it was mostly he's got this really good fastball. He's got this really good curve ball. He throws in the mid-90s. He's got this kind of a little bit, you know, funky delivery.

it's a little more over the top than you usually see. And then he comes up to the majors, and all of a sudden he's got this change-up that looks like one of the best pitches in baseball. Last season, he threw it 176 times, 70 times to right-ies. 106 times the lefties. I actually like that he threw it so much to right-handed batters.

You know, that same-on-same change-up combination, I think is an underrated one if you can do it. Well, you have up a 104 batting average and a 146 slugging percentage with expectations. expected stats that completely backed it up, 39.8% whiff rate. And so when I see a guy with the kind of talent, the kind of pedigree that Ian Anderson has,

who has, you know, the scouting report coming up as a prospect was one thing. And then he came up to the majors and did that, plus this other incredible thing. That to me just suggests a guy who is going to be a very,

very good starting pitcher. I have him as a top 24 starting pitcher overall coming into the season. which is really high, but. Be e. aggressive. For a young pitcher, I don't think he has too many workload concerns. I'll say he doesn't have much more workload concerns than most pitchers who haven't really established themselves.

And frankly, there's a lot of those guys being drafted. He's thrown 135 innings in a minor league season once before. So, you know, the Braves may have, you know, six-man rotation for stretches or they may pull guys off. But, you know, I think if he got to 140, 150 innings, it wouldn't surprise me. And I think that's going to be more of a very good pitcher throwing 150 or so innings is going to be more valuable in 2021 than it ever has been in fantasy baseball. And so I'm not really going to downgrade too many guys if I think they're good. And I have worries about their, you know, their usage because I just, I think everybody's

going to have worries about their usage. You know, the Mariners were a team that came out recently and pretty much confirmed they're going to use a six-man rotation. They did last year, too. But, yeah. So this is, I got to pick this part a little bit because I love Ian Anderson too. And this is, this was tough for me because he's in my busts 2.0, which is going to come out this week on CBSports.com.

But the reason being, and has nothing to do with talent, because I agree, you look at what he did last year, 65 strikeouts across 51 innings. he made 10 starts between the regular and the postseason. He allowed two hits or fewer in five of those. He allowed just nine earn runs total in those 10 starts. And those are in the biggest spots of the season. I mean, it's in the playoffs, against tough teams, against the Dodgers a few times there as well.

The problem for me is just workload. I have no idea, Chris, because last year, it was 50 in a third. And the year before that, it was 135 and two thirds in the minors. So, I mean, all the projection systems have him for around like 130, 140. There's a chance that he's just super awesome in those endings, and he kind of pays off. But I just, the other names that are going right around him in ADP, I mean, he's inside the top 100. Guys like Zach Wheeler, Zach Granky, Jose Berrios, De Nelson Lemette, we can make the arguments. Okay, I get that one.

But Kyle Hendricks, Carlos Carrasco, these are names going right around him. And these are guys that are pretty established that we've seen. and do it before. So as much as I love Ian Anderson, is this hard for me to get behind the price? You have to pay to get him. And to be fair, I don't have him substantially higher than a lot of those guys. I have him right behind Zach Grinke. I have him a little bit behind Jose Berrios. I have him just slightly ahead of

Kyle Hendricks, a little ahead of Zach Wheeler. I think that's the right range. And I like all of those guys. Probably I think I like all those guys more than their ADP. So this is not necessarily a case of me you know, liking Ian Anderson so much more than those guys. It's just the case of me liking Ian Anderson. And, you know, the workload concerns are totally there. But, you know, when you look at guys being drafted in the top 20,

are we really sure Kentomai is definitely going to be able and capable of throwing more than 150 or 160 innings? I think he probably can, but it's not like we have a sample size of that. Steven Strasbourg can't be confident in that. Corbyn Burns definitely can't be confident in that. And so I just think if you're ever going to buy a talent that you believe in, and I think this is true of Zach Plyzac, if you believe in that, I think it's true of Lamet, if you believe in him. I just believe in those guys a little less.

This is the year to buy the guys who you have workload concerns, because everybody except for like 15 pitchers has workload concerns. And those guys are all being drafted in the top 15, except for probably Zach Grinke, who for some reason is SP 32, because it's always, he's always undervalued. I guess the difference between like Gintamai,

uh, Steven Straussberg versus Anderson is like, you know they're not going to let Anderson throw 180 plus innings. Sure. Although if this, if left 2020 had been a normal season and he stayed healthy, he probably would have thrown. Yeah.

Like 170. So it's not, that's the thing that's tough right. Yeah. That's the thing that's tough right now. But I don't know. It just, it doesn't seem that much weirder to have him as a top 24 starting pitcher

than to have Tyler Glass now as a top 15 starting pitcher, which pretty much everyone does. Okay. I do not. Corbyn Burns as a top 20. That's fair. I had Glass now appeared in my overrated players column that was released within the last couple.

days. So I get that. I feel like I rank Anderson as high as I could possibly rank him, knowing he's a rookie pitcher still technically. Yeah. Coming off the season where he hardly threw any innings because nobody did. So I just know that there's going to be severe limits, or at least I'm fairly confident they're going to be severe limits on his workload. I think that's all fair. Yeah. But I love him. And you don't always see the warts in the people that you love. My wife loves me. So. you know. Scott, give us that picture you love.

Oh, you know the picture I love Frank. Is it? I've gushed about him before. You know, it's some people wonder what John means. And I'll tell you what John means. John means business. Based on the way he closed out last season for the Orioles. A season where he looked different from the beginning,

it was thrown a couple miles per hour harder, but it wasn't really impacting the results, so it was easy to just kind of, you know, wave off. But then the last four starts, everything took off, everything. Like, not just, okay, he had a low ERA for his last four starts, but the swinging strike rate, like, doubled. It went from, like, bottom of the league, 8% or so

to Garrett Cole, like, 16% over those final four starts. He had a 152 ERA, 30 strikeouts versus, three walks in 23 and 2. There's any ex-ins. And he's always been a good strike thrower. But just seeing the way, just seeing that that was sustainable even as he became a different pitcher, one who showed this

incredible bat missing ability. Now I know we're going to complain about the sample size, but like we're talking about somebody who's being drafted outside the top 200, so what do you want? You know, like I feel like I feel like when you see that big a change of skill

no matter what size the sample is you need to take it seriously because it's so hard in the late rounds to find a pitcher especially who has the ability to be an impactful player in fantasy still anybody who shows an inkling of upside at that position especially gets gobbled up pretty quickly and I think people are sleeping on John Means still.

So, you know, it's a no risk proposition. And if it's legit, if that velocity gain is something that holds, and if whatever else happened to make it translate to strikeouts like it did down the stretch, if that holds, then I don't know, John Means could be a pretty splashy find for you. And I'm lapping it up. I'm lapping it up in every league. J.M.B. John Means Business, the ADP 225.5, as the 69th starting pitcher off the board. And I've mentioned this a few times the past month or so. Outside the top 200, you have a lot of high

upside starting pitchers. So I would try to load up my bench with as many of these guys as you possibly can towards the end of your draft. Jameson Tyone outside the top 200. Marcus Stroman, Zach Eflin, John Means, Nate Pearson, Michael Paneda. Nathan Avaldi Ryan Yarbrough I think is interesting as well there is a lot of names in this area

I want to call Yarbrough high upside but fair enough He's solid He's very solid Casey Mise Casey Mise Davey Garcia

Luis Severino when he gets back There's no shortage of guys going outside the top 200 Yeah Brady Singer Dane Dunning I know Scott likes Griffin Canning as well

So definitely load up I like him I don't love him. He doesn't love him. He likes him. He loves John Means, for sure. A player that I love and lots of options, you know, definitely could have just done a 60-minute monologue on Joe Musgrove.

I don't think anybody would have, you know. That's not loving me, man. Yeah, I don't know that anyone would have objected to that for Joe Musgrove. But I'm going to go with Carlos Carrasco. And the first six starts last season were a little shaky, and I think that is somewhat expected coming off a season in 2019 where he was diagnosed with leukemia. but those first six starts, 4.5 ERA, 15 walks and 30 innings.

That's 4.5 walks per nine, which is really not what we're used to seeing from Carlos Carrasco. His final six starts were amazing. 1.66 ERA 103 whip. He went at least six innings in each of those starts. He went seven innings twice, got the walks down to 2.8 per nine during that stretch. And the strikeouts were basically on par with where he's been 15% swinging strike rate for the season. that was basically where he was at in 2018 when he was a top 12 pitcher

for fantasy baseball purposes. The ADP for Carlos Carrasco, 73.5. So he's going at that 6-7 turn as the SP 25 off the board. And on top of everything, he's going to the Mets now, the National League, where, as of today, February 14th or the 15th when you're listening to this,

there is no DH in the National League. So I think that means we have to somewhat bump up National League pitchers again. and Carlos Carrasco now pitching in the national league. So love getting him as my SP3 in that round six, round seven range. Let's quickly just hit a few players that we've always loved, that we still kind of love.

Chris, why don't you give us one of these, oldies but goodies? Well, he's not been all that good for most of his career, and I expect there's going to be some groans because he's a very controversial player, but Byron Buxton. I am bought back in. Byron Bucston.

I thought you're going to say John Carlos, Dan. So that's... No, no. I mean, obviously. Obviously. Like, oh, Chris loves a future Hall of Famer. Wow.

No, Byron Buxton, I think there is a lot to buy into what he's done over the last couple of seasons. He seems to have really taken a step forward as a power enter and he's been able to do it with, you know, frankly, without sacrificing too much strikeouts. You know, he's been right around 24,

20, 23 to 27. percent the last two seasons small sample sizes because yes byron boston gets hurt a lot but uh i just think you know you look at the last two seasons um 16 stolen bases 23 uh home runs in let me do that math in top of my head now 126 games you're talking about 25 25 upside and uh byron bxton i don't think there's any question that he's always had the potential to do that he's just never been able to really stay healthy enough to. But a super efficient base runner. I think he's still 99th percentile in sprint speed this deep into his career.

Yeah, he was fifth in the majors last season, an average sprint speed. He was third the year before, first the year before that. So probably some decline. He'll be seventh in 2021. But he is hitting the ball harder. He was 89th percent on hard hit rate last season. He was 85th percent on exit. loss. 88th percentile in barrel rate. All of those things were higher than they have been,

but he took a step forward in 2019 in his underlying power numbers. The play discipline's bad. The play discipline's probably always going to be bad. But I think Byron Buxton can be a 260 hitter who steals 25 bases and hits 25 homers. And that kind of player usually gets drafted a lot higher than Byron Buxton is. Yep, the ADP for Buxon is 123 as the 34th outfielder off the board. I think you're right. It's not egregious. It's been higher

in years past. There is still massive upside. He has to stay on the field. Buckson's dealt with a lot of injuries in the past. But specifically in Roto leagues, if you get this guy in the 10th or 11th round as your probably third outfielder, I don't think that's bad at all. Points leagues,

you might want to shy away just because the strikeouts and the walks. Just a plate discipline in general. Not going to be great. For one, Byron Buckson, Scott, a minute or less, a player you've always loved. I've always loved Josh Bell from the time I saw him hit his first home run, which almost went in the Allegheny, is that the river behind? Allegheny. It's the Monagena and the Ohio converge to form the Allegheny. Yeah, they got that yellow bridge out there and almost went in it. Like he just, and he just like, he looks so strong.

Like I saw him without his shirt once. He looked like the super shredder. His dad's somehow looks even more jacked than him. His dad is like the biggest person I've ever seen in my life. Go Google Josh Bell's dad. I may be mixing up love with lust, I'll admit. But like, you know, after that 2019 season, I thought he could do no wrong.

Clearly I was wrong. But I'm willing to forgive and forget because I think guys with his raw power who strikeout as infrequently as he does, you know, prior to 2020. And the fact it was a messed up season, you know, no video.

Obviously, the strikeout rate shows something was off for him. I think he's going to be back in a big way. And I am still in love with Josh Bell. All right. So Josh Bell's dad, Ernest, Bill,

is he is yoked up. So you are... He looks like Frank Thomas back when Frank Thomas was an active major league player. Wow. There are a lot of... MLB player dads that are jacked. Marcus Stroman's dad popped up,

and this guy's also huge. Oh my gosh. I remember Bryce Harbour's dad during the home run derby he's throwing to Bryce. He's pretty big too, so damn. Good call on Josh Bell and his dad, players and dads that we love here. It's not even Father's Day,

but we're hitting everything. Big day for the Pirates. So, you know, I called the Pirates out last weekend, last weekend, last Friday. And the player that I have always loved is Andrew McCutcheon. And this is actually a, like, a Cutch is Clutch shirt. You'd see that little there if you're watching a video. But I have always loved Andrew McCutcheon.

And I think he's useful regardless of format. He's 34 years old now. He's still managed a 324 OBP with 10 home runs and four steals in 57 games last season. The batting average is not great at this point. He's probably 250 to 260, but good late round source of runs. He's not going to really hurt you. anywhere. ADPs outside the top 200. Even if I got them as my third outfielder in a points league or my utility bat, I really would not mind it. So Andrew McCutcheon, a player that I have

always loved, and I still kind of like them here in 2021. We have lots of news items to get to just want to quickly promote. For my soccer fans out there, the Champions League is back and you should be listening to Kay Galazzo, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Join the team for two episodes a day, including daily previews and recats of all the Champions League and Europa Knockout Stage Action. You can find Kay Galazzo on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, and wherever else you listen to this podcast. Don't wait, download and subscribe to make Kay Galato your ultimate audio destination for soccer and Champions League coverage. We have an extra mailbag podcast this week. So in addition to the position previews and the players we love and all the other.

other fun stuff that we give you. We will be dropping an extra mailbag podcast this Saturday into the feed. So if you enjoy the podcast, please drop a five-star Apple podcast rating and leave your question as a review. We'll also grab some emails as well. Of course, put mailbag in the subject line and send that to fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Remember, that's the letter I as in interactive. News and notes.

Cue the I'm coming home song. I'm coming home. Justin Turner. Back to the Dodgers on a two-year deal. He was not the only one. James Paxton, back to the Mariners. Jake Arieta returned to the Chicago Cubs. Scott, let's just start with Justin Turner here.

He's old. He's going to miss some time probably throughout the season, but he was still the 14th best third baseman in Roto last year. He averaged 3.1 fantasy points per game. That was 10th best among third baseman in that format. His ADP is 215.8, so he's very late. He's boring, but he still kind of gets the job done. for fantasy.

Yeah, kind of. I think I haven't ranked 17th or 18th at third base, so, you know, a few spots less, a few spots behind where he finished in Roto, and that was, of course, in a year where many, many third baseman underperformed expectations. You know, the weird thing about Justin Turner

is over the past four seasons, he's hit 307 with a 9-10 OPS, and that's like studly, obviously. But I'm actually disappointed, to see him go back to the Dodgers because they're treating, they're giving him the old man treatment clearly. Like if he went somewhere else, we could hope maybe that they won it.

But the Dodgers, they still have enviable depth. People started to get excited about Edwin Rios maybe before Justin Turner, uh, returned. So, you know,

Rios himself is somebody they're going to want to find it bats for presumably. And, um, sitting once or twice every single week is, it's hard to be, it's hard to be an, impact fantasy player that way.

So I don't really see the usage changing for Turner now that he's back with the Dodgers and that's going to keep him really outside the top 15 for me at third base. I think he's fine in the late rounds, especially if you're looking for like batting average help. But I don't think his ADP really needs to be much higher than it is. In my late round category contributors article on CBSports.com,

I wrote up Justin Turner, someone going outside the top 200 that can help you in batting average. Pretty safe floor there. I think he's probably going to hit 290 plus and potentially even over 300. But yeah, definitely throw some cold water on Edwin Rios, who, man, the power potential is big. Eight home runs in 32 games last year. 946 OPS with the Dodgers has a 31 homer season

back in 2019 in AAA. So big power there for Rios, but it seems like we're going to have to wait a little bit longer. The Axton returns to the Mariners after a few years with the Yankees. The velocity was way down last year for Paxson. Has dealt with a ton of injuries. The ADP is at 237 just behind John Means Business and Michael Paneda. And maybe I'm alone here, but I would rather take a shot on those guys at this point than James Paxton.

Chris, I feel like you've always been the Paxson guy. How about now? Yeah, I mean, I'm sorry he was bad for your team. But that's no reason to ding him, Frank. Come on. I mean, the velocity being down is a pretty good. The velocity was down and, you know, according to reports out of his showcase, he was throwing like 94. That works.

Which was back in December? Yeah, I mean, and the question is, was he peaking at 94? Was he sitting 94? That's always one of those questions that we have to deal with before we actually see information. I think skepticism for James Paxton makes a lot of sense. But I'll admit I'm not 100% sure why we're more skeptical about him than. Corey Klober, who I believe has a higher ADP. You correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's the case.

Yeah, Dan Faxon is... Well, I'll give you one reason. Yep. The Yankees signed Corey Klobler for $11 million and apparently weren't willing to sign James Paxton, a pitcher they know better for $8.5 million. And I think it's pretty concerning that no contender, I mean, I'm assuming he went to the highest bidder.

No contender was willing to guarantee more than $8.5 million. He missed almost all of last season with a strained elbow flexor. And you'll remember that's the diagnosis Chris Sale received right before having Tommy John surgery. It's often a precursor for Tommy John surgery. So I'm not making a strong case for James Pax. No, I know. I was just making the case against why. Why enthusiasm is low for him.

And I think where he's going. like, you know, that's, that's, that's no risk. I think it's fine to take him where he's going. I would prefer John Means, obviously, in that same range. But if, you know, Paxton is there in the next round, I might have to think about it. Yeah, for me, it's, it's more being down on, uh, Klooper than, liking Paxton much. No, I could, I could see that because Kluber is climbing right now.

The ADP is up to 180. I feel like before he signed with the Yankees, that was in the same range as James Paxon, It was right around 220. So he's moving up around 30 to 40 picks. And I assume, you know, if he looks good in spring, that's just going to continue to climb. So I agree with that analysis. I'm just more likely to wait and take some of those other names

that I mentioned earlier as some kind of, as some upside arms going outside the top 200. Jake Arietta, back to the Cubs. I assume there's not much to see here, Scott. I don't think there is, no. There's not really, he doesn't really have any redeeming qualities anymore, Arieta. I guess he throws a lot of innings.

And so in an NL only league, that'll be worth it for somebody to have him. But I don't hold out much hope of Ariadah recapturing some lost form there. I will say, if this pushes Adbert Alzellate out of the rotation, I will lose it, Scott. I will lose it. Because as of now, we're looking at Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Arieta. And then we have three names here, Alec Mills, Trevor.

Williams and Albert Alzali So I Adbert Alzali may not be a player I love but he's a player I'm kind of

starting to flirt with you know I will just say when the options are you know Alec Mills and Trevor Williams and frankly

Jake Carrietta there may not be like it may not matter if he's not in the opening day rotation he'll get an opportunity

at some point and if he doesn't either something went really really wrong for Alzale, which in which case it doesn't matter whether he gets the opportunity or not, or this season went way better than even the Cubs are hoping it will. So I think he'll get an opportunity.

That is a great point. Again, regarding Jake Arieta and Adbert Alzalai, someone we do like as a, also as a late round sleep. He's going outside the top 300, so even in deeper leagues there. Andrew Benintendi last week was traded to the Kansas City Royals in a three-way deal. The Red Sox received outfielder of Frenchie Cordero, who, I mean, People just love this guy because he's hit like two 470 foot home runs in his career.

He has tools for days, but we'll get into him in a little bit. The Red Sox also received pitcher Josh Winkowski and three players to be named later. The Mets received outfield prospect Kalia Lee, who is very fast and offers some organizational depth there in the outfield for the Mets. Scott Benintendi was awful last season. He only played 14 games.

He missed the majority of the season with a rib injury, he was also a pretty big letdown, I would say, in 2019, but he should play every day now, I assume, with the Royals, and does have a power speed combination. The ADP is 252. I've never been a big Benintendi guy, but I think I can get behind that. I'm slowly buying into Benintendi at that ADP.

I think he's Nick Marquakis at this point. It's crazy how much his stock has fallen, considering he was at one time the number one prospect of baseball. baseball. He was a tough fantasy outfielder in ADP going into 2019,

I believe. It's a former 2020 guy. But like, his, specifically the speed, okay, his first percentile,

where he's ranked in speed, according to stat cast over the years. It started out 89.1, 89.1 percentile for the speed, for Ben and Tendi.

Last year, it was 43.4. The year before, 54.3. like really average to below average speed. So I'm not sure. Like that was the one thing I was thinking, okay,

if there's any team that likes to run is the Royals, right? So maybe they'll get Benintendi running again and if he can become a steel source again, then, you know, that might help him recapture some fantasy value. But he's just not that fast anymore. And I don't think someone with Ben and Tendi speed can't be a decent base deal. I always say stolen bases are.

mostly a matter of intent, but, you know, I feel like I got to see it to believe it at this point with him. And in terms of hitting, like the power's been on the decline too, he's still a pretty good contact hitter. That's why I make the Nick Mercakis comparison. But not that interested in him

unless I'm looking for like a stable fifth outfielder in a roto league. I think he can be 15 to 20 homers, 10 to 15 steals. I mean, there's definitely a place for that. in a Roto league, probably as a fifth outfielder, maybe a fourth outfielder in a deeper format, you know, 15 teams or something deeper than that in Roto.

But let's see what he has left in spring training. Someone I'll be paying attention to is Andrew Benintendi. And I do want to make one point on him. He's, I think, especially poorly suited to playing at Fenway Park. Fenway Park is really, really great for Babbitt, but it's been historically very, very bad for left. candid power. And Andrew Ben Tendee seemed to get into a rut of trying to hit for power.

And that's not really his game, but especially there. And, you know, if you look at what he's done at home, he's averaged 12 home runs per 150 games at Fenway. It's more like 17 on the road. And he's actually run more often on the road. You know, I think it's something like 21 steals per 150 games. Obviously, that I think is less relevant. But, you know, Kaufman's not a great play.

to hit, but it's possibly a park upgrade for Andrew Ben and Tendi in particular. Chris, I'll stick with you here. The legend that is Franchi Cordero. He might get the opportunity to start versus right-handed pitching in left field for the Red Sox. Anything to see here? He's not really a baseball player? I don't know. Like, I don't want to be too mean, but like he's this really interesting collection of tools, but we don't actually have much evidence so that he can really play baseball all that well. And I don't know, he's fast. He hits the ball far when he makes contact with it.

He made more contact last season than ever. But, you know, obviously, it was, what, 30, 42 plate appearances that he only shook out four times in. So that doesn't really tell you anything. I think it's a very long shot. He would probably need a lot of playing time to be fantasy relevant. The Padre signed Mark Malanson over the weekend. And we've got our relief pitcher preview coming up.

later this week. This is going to be a fun one to figure out who closes for the Padres between Drew Pomerans, Emilio Pagan, who they have talked up in the offseason, and now Mark Malanson joins the mix. So Scott, if you had to handicap this, who is your betting favorite to lead the Padres in saves this season? I'm going to say Pomerans, and it may be wishful thinking. I think he's clearly the most talented of the three, clearly. You know, that didn't stop. Melanson for beating El Will Smith for saves in Atlanta last year. And hey, it worked out okay. Even though the strikeout rate was low, the whip was kind of high.

Obviously, Malanson has the most proven track record as a closer, but Pomeranz was the guy who became the closer after Kirby Yates went down last year. And then Pomeranz himself got hurt, and then they acquired Trevor Rosenthal. So, you know, kind of went by the wayside. But Pomeranz was the guy. He did get installed as the closer before. They clearly think he can do that job. But Melanson's track record as a closer,

the fact that Pomeranzas is the one leverage lefty they have. I have some doubts, and I'd be drafting Pomeranzas and Malanson pretty close together. Let's quickly hit on some of these last few news items. Anything to see here, Rich Hill joins the Tampa Bay raise on a one-year deal. This is, I mean, you want to talk about Valentine's Day match made in heaven.

Rich Hill to the Tampa Bay. I'm surprised it's taking this long for this to actually happen. The raise have Tyler Glass now, and then like seven to eight other pitchers that will maybe give them 100 innings this season. And I was watching MLB Hot Stove on MLB Network last week. And Ken Rosenthal was talking about, that's the Ray's actual plan,

is that they just want to have a lot of depth. And, you know, guys that, okay, if they could give us 80 to 100 innings, then that's pretty good. But those names that we're looking at, Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Waka, Trevor Richards, Colin McHugh, Josh Fleming,

Luis Patino, Brent Honeywell, maybe in the mix if we could ever see him pitch again. Brendan McKay. Brendan McKay, also one of those names. Shane McClannahan, they just have so much depth in this organization. Chris, Rich Hill, are we... I think he's like 42 years old.

Are we going back to the well? No, probably, probably not. But if you're in an AL-only league, it's worth taking a look at him. I would guess what we're going to see is a lot of guys get thrown out there and whoever pitch is well, to stick and Rich Hill has

a track record and has been a reliable starting pitcher in the past but you know he put off Tommy John surgery I think last off season is that last off season time has no meaning anymore yeah it was last off season

yeah I foresee I foresee a lot of three and four innings stints for this entire pitching staff which Hill included the one guy who I think could break free from that is glass now and even considering five innings well no I mean he had a few seven innings starts last year which is saying something because you know seven inning starts were especially rare but you know he just over the course of a I don't think he's had more than like 120 innings since 2017 or something so even even him Glass now the rays are going to be really careful of but beyond that like I don't I don't I have a hard time getting excited for anybody in this pitching staff because it's just going to be such a mish mash I'm even starting to lose some excitement. about glass now.

Yeah. Like I said, I had him in my overrated column, so. Yeah, and he's another tough one where he's not overrated because of the talent. It's just, you know, the cost that you have to get to draft him, which is usually the fourth or fifth round based on ADP.

As dribble Cabrera signed with the debacks on a one-year deal, which means Cattel Marte will move back to center field. He will still have second base eligibility for this season, Cotel Marte, but he will quickly gain outfield eligibility. I don't know if this means anything, but 90s.

career games for Catele Marte in the outfield. They likely all came in his breakout season. 361 batting average with an OPS over 1,000. So do with that what you will, but it's a stat that I saw and I thought it was interesting. The Tiger signed outfielder at Nomar Mazzara to a one-year deal. Don't really think there's much to see there.

The Mariners signed reliever Ken Giles to a multi-year deal. He's recovering from Tommy John's surgery. This move is more so for 2022. So keep that in mind in your Keeper in Dynasty leagues, where relievers are relevant. The Red Sox signed Marvinian Gonzalez to a one-year deal. I assume he'll play his

normal super utility role, fill in for players here and there, give someone a day off. Cleveland signed Billy Hamilton to a minor league contract. Scott, outside of Eddie Rosario, any guesses to who starts in the outfield for the Cleveland

in those other two outfield spots? I'm pulling up for Rostor resource here. It's not pretty. Not a clear guess. No, I mean, Ahmed Rosario might end up getting a fair amount of time out there because that's a way they could get both him

and Andros Menez and certainly Sezar Hernandez in the lineup. We may see a healthy dose of Oscar Mercado again. Hasn't there been some talk of maybe trying Nolan Jones? Nolan Jones is their top, at least, hitter prospect, right? Their top, one of the top, at least. Third baseman. They have talked about that. Yeah, there's been some talk about that, so I don't know how quickly that would develop,

but he's on the verge of a major league promotion. So maybe he ends up coming up at some point this year and becoming a useful hitter for them. But otherwise, it's going to be the same collection of nobody's like Bradley Zimmer. They'll probably get a shot again. I hope it's Mercado in one of the two spots. I'm kind of interesting. You played 151 games. I know it was a huge disappointment last year,

but he's played 151 major league games. He has 16 homers, 18 steals. Like, if he can do that, he'll be a starting caliber outfielder in Rotter leagues. I'm with you. I'm with you, Chris. ADP 357 for Mercado. I can... Late round flyer.

I can get kind of excited for, for one, Oscar Mercado. You know, we almost fired up the emergency podcast last week, had some breaking news. Adam Azer favorite Greg Bird signed a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies. I legitimately was going to have Adam. come on for like, just to have a little fun and talk some Greg Bird.

But yeah, not really much to see there. Non-transaction-related news. John Marosi reported Michael Kopeck is expected to compete for a rotation spot throughout spring. My guess is he will compete with Carlos Rodon and Ronaldo Lopez for the final spot in the White Sox rotation. So we'll be watching that very closely. Randy Dobnack, our guy, leading candidate for the twins' fifth starter job. Miles Straw is atop the Astro's Centerfield Dept chart. that is a very fast man,

so I don't know that he'll provide anything else, but for those who play in AL-only Roto League's, someone who can give you 20 plus skills. He's a fast guy who's capable of getting on base a lot. Miles Straw is, so I think he has a legitimate chance of becoming an everyday player type, which, you know, given the stolen base landscape right now,

that would be a pretty big deal. Brandon Belt underwent heel surgery back in October. He is progressing well and hopes to be ready for opening... If you are watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. On the podcast side, we are going to take a quick break when we return. We're answering your mailback questions here, Fantasy Baseball today. Let's jump in.

Quick shout out to one of our listeners, Jason Lawrence, who made this little sound drop for whenever we like a trade, whenever you guys say, take the trade, we will have this to play. Take the trade. It's pretty fun. It was simple. A couple of weeks ago, I was saying, take the trade. Kept saying it. and I was like,

whoever wants to make a sound bite, send it in. Our buddy Jason Lawrence did so. So we do appreciate that, of course. We've got two questions from Apple Podcasts. We'll start this one. First from Gerber Baby 96. Dear Tom, Mike, Hank, and Wayne.

I tried Googling this beforehand and I couldn't find anything. You guys are 100% better at this than I am. Tom, Mike, Hank, and Wayne. Something is popping up called Wayne an American Dark comedy action streaming television series created by Sean Simmons

I don't know I was thinking maybe Tom Seaver or Hank Aaron maybe this was maybe a Hall of Famers who passed away in the last year but I don't... Maybe. I can't think of who Wayne Wayne would be. Yeah.

Let's move on to the question if you guys have any guesses, let us know. If anyone in the YouTube chat has a guess, let us know. I play in a 12-team standard head-to-head Categories League and have always been a sucker for steals. I was intrigued by Frank and Scott's discussion around punting steals in this format. I pick near the end of the first round in a league that perennially sleeps on Trey Turner. Do you think there's any merit in taking him to potentially

win some weeks in the category and punting steals for the rest of the draft? Me personally, you know, if I'm punting steals, I'm just going completely the other way. But Trey Turner will help you in the other four categories as well. What do you think, Scott? I would probably just look in another direction, maybe someone like Freddie Freeman, who would be better in the power counting stats. I think if I'm taking the punt-steels approach in a head-to-head categories league,

which is, by the way, the only format I would consider it for, I want to do it for straight roto. But if I was going to do it, kind of who I got in the first round would determine whether I did it or not. Like if I'm picking first, you know, I'm still taking Ronald de Cunia,

if I'm picking second or third, you know, bets, Tatis. Like, I'm not going to pass those guys up because I decided going into the draft that I wouldn't take steel. So if Trey Turner lands in my lap and pick nine or whatever, then obviously I'm not going to punt steals route. I just, the advantage to punting steals, I think, is you don't reach later in the draft

when you kind of have to reach to get steals, especially if you didn't get any early. Fair enough. This one's from Big Pete underscore 88. Apple Podcast review question. Pete Alonzo, is that you? No, he was born in 1994, not in 1988. Last year, many people had Michael Conforto on the bust list.

Do we think this is the year he busts, or is he the real deal? Michael Conforto, ADP is 73.5 as the 20th outfielder off the board, just behind names like Randy Arosurana, Trent Grisham, and Brandon Lough. Chris, thoughts on Michael Conforto. at that ADP? I think he's kind of underrated at this point. I agree. I think it's because it's kind of a profile that isn't super rare.

I don't think he's going to hit 320 or anything close to it again. But I think he's someone who's going to hit 265, 270 with a just a boatload of RBI and runs and what should be a very good lineup. And I think he's a pretty safe bet for 30 home runs. So, you know, he's someone that I look at and I think I'm fine with him in either form. Matt, you know, as a number one outfielder, if I wait, number two, otherwise. And I think I'm pretty happy with it if it happens. What if he hit, if Conforto hits only 265, 270, then I don't know why he'd be worth his ADP.

I feel like the expectation he's going to help him batting average is really the only justification for it. I mean, you compare Conforto to like where Mike and Yistrimpsky's going. you know, if you're talking like only a 260, two 60, 265 batting average, compared to like Max Kepler, who's barely inside the top 200. So, you know,

my concern about Conforto is, okay, he really didn't show batting average ability until last year. And, you know, I think there may be some improvements that back it up and maybe you can count on him

being some help in batting average, but. Well, yeah, I mean, Max Kepler's maxed out at 252 batting average. And he's had one season with more than 20 homers. So I just think Conforto is a really good combination of safe, secure player with, you know,

I think 35, it wouldn't shock me if he one year had a 40 homer season. And I also just think he's going to be a real help in both runs and RBI. I think that's a big place where he stands out among the guys who have maybe a similar profile. Maybe guys who won't be a huge benefit in batting average, but will hit for power. I just think he's going to, you know, I think 100-100 season is not out of the question for Michael Conforto. I think the team and lineup context for Conforto really kind of helps him in this range of ADP where even if you have some question marks, if he's betting third or fourth for the New York Mets with Lindor and Pete Alonzo, I'm with you, Chris. I think, you know, 200 combined runs plus RBI.

I don't think that's out of the question. And he doesn't steal a lot of bags, but maybe he gives you six to eight steals. The batting average is definitely going to come down. He hit 322 last year with a 412 Babbup. His career BABIP is 305. I think you can make a case that Mike Yistremski is undervalued. Oh, for sure. Yeah.

But I don't think that's necessarily a case against Michael Conforter. It's more a case of people sleeping on Yostremski. Yeah, I would agree with that assessment as well. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the email address to sending your emails. And this one from Brian in LA, enjoyed the podcast recapping the head-to-head categories mock, as it helped calibrate some of my thinking ahead of this year's draft. But hearing the league settings you used made me think the league I've been playing in on CBS and enjoying for six years is all screwed up. And I'm wondering if you have any suggestions I can give my commission

on how best to adjust it. We have standard five-by-five categories. Our lineup is nine hitters and nine pitchers with six bench spots. There's no middle slash corner infielders, one catcher and one utility spot. And on the pitching side, we have to start six starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and then one flex pitcher, which can be either a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher. Scott, what do you think of this setup?

It does seem like in every fantasy baseball lineup, there are usually more hitters than pitchers. so it seems like that's kind of what's throwing things off here in this league. Yeah, I'm trying to figure out what the upside would be to having somebody pitchers, like how it would change the league in a way that people might enjoy, I guess, having that many pitchers relative to hitters. And I'm struggling to come up with what would be enjoyable about that. You would have to play more bad players.

Yeah, exactly. At a position where there are too many bad players. Yeah. And the fact that you can't even flex it that much. You could make up for bad starting pitchers in a head-de-head categories league by adding more relievers to your lineup. But you can't do that, this specific breakdowns. So that, if everybody loves it, I'm not going to tell you to change.

But if people have been losing interest or there are a lot of complaints during the season about why do we have to do it this way, then I'd consider switching to something more traditional, yeah. I mean, the traditional is the traditional for a reason. It's been around a long time. People seem to enjoy it. The traditional Yahoo, I believe it, is it three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and then two flex pitchers?

2-24. 2-24, so eight pitchers versus nine here. Okay, I think you just... Yeah, eight pitchers and then 10 hitters, is the Yahoo setup, which, is what we based that head-to-head categories mock for. I think the answer for me is just get something closer to that. I do think there should be more hitters in your lineup than pitchers because obviously

there's a lot of volatility there. And maybe knock off one starting pitcher and make that a relief pitcher. So if you do something like 4-22, I think that would probably help you guys out there. This one's from Mark Esposito. Can we get, if not a deep dive? perhaps a shallow dive, shallow dip on one Tanner Halk from the Boston Red Sox small sample size last year, only made three starts down the stretch.

Pitch 17 innings, not a huge prospect for the Red Sox, but a decent prospect in a not-so-great farm system. A 0-53 ERA with a 0-88 whip last season. Scott, what do you think about Tanner Hauk? He's a guy I just missed when he first got called up because the minor league numbers weren't that good. He wasn't an especially high-end prospect. But, you know, then he came up with, what was it,

three really impressive starts in the season. And one pitch in particular, I'm trying to remember which it is. It's the slider. Yeah, 65 grade is what? Baseball America gives Tanner Hout. What is it again? Tanner Halk.

Tanner Halk for his slider. And, you know, it's basically just a fastball on slider. That's really all he has going on, and that you worry about the two-pitch arsenal holding up in the starting role. But any time you have a pitch that's rated that highly,

there's always a chance you develop into something. So, you know, he's a sleeper in the sense that, you know, after, like for a deep league, I guess, a deep sleeper, probably have them just ranked a little outside my top 100 starting pitchers, but if you're looking for an upside play at that point in a league of that depth, then he would be somebody I'd consider. Really has to work on the command.

Again, that is Tanner Halk of the Boston Red Sox 4.7 walks per nine last year in the three starts. But even in his stops in minor leagues in 2019, 5.04 walks per nine, 3.48. in 2018, it was 4.54 walks per 9. So definitely have to work on the command. And just to give the specifics of the numbers in those three starts, six hits allowed over 17 innings. Now, obviously, that is unsustainable. He's going to give him more hits than that.

But just the fact that he allowed so few hits, I think it suggests he was hard to hit. Yeah, the concern I would have is, or one of the concerns I would have, would just be that, you know, he faced about two-thirds of his batters face for right-handed, and he's got this, he almost has like a crisp sale but reverse image kind of delivery. It's very much like a three-quarters bordering on sidearm. And when you're talking about a guy whose best pitch is his slider and you're talking about

that kind of arm angle, you know, the fact that he dominated right, he's 16th strikeouts, 41 plate appearances, that's not terribly surprising. only five strikeouts and 22 played appearances against lefties with four walks. That, it just, it seems like a reliever profile. But like Scott said, he's going late enough and in deep enough leagues. You know, it's worth taking a shot on someone

who flashed that, at least. Last one that will hit today. This one's from Matt in Tennessee. I am in a 12-team, 10-player keeper league head-to-head categories. And I have one spot left from the following. following, Patrick Corbyn, Chris Bryant, Liam Hendrix, Reiselle Iglesias, or Jesus Lazzardo. What do you think, Scott's dynasty rankings would say Lazzardo easily, but I've already got

Darvish, Scherzer, and Corbyn Burns with no closers. So Scott, Corbyn, Bryant, Liam Hendrix, Reisell Iglesias, and Lazzardo. Choose one. With a keeper league with that many keepers, 10 players, then I would pay close attention to my dynasty rankings because there's not as much turnover happening there. And closers in a 12-team league, I mean, you're going to get more shots at saves than in the 10 players you're selecting to keep. So yeah, I would agree with my dynasty rankings and I would say Luzardo pretty easily. Chris, how about you? Corbyn, Chris Bryant, Hendrix, Iglesias, Lazzardo. Yeah, the only question really, like, I don't think in a keeper or, or, or, you know,

Especially in the Dynasty League, closers have very little value. The only question for me would be Hazers Lizardo or Chris Bryant. I think Chris Bryant is being really overlooked and underrated this year. But, you know, I think getting that fourth starting pitcher

when you already have six hitters, it sounds like. I think that probably makes me lean towards Lazzardo. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott Chris. I am Frank. Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today

on a very special Valentine's Day. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.