Fantasy Baseball Today - Players We Love! What About the Wandering Eye? 💘 (2/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 14, 2022

Happy Valentine's Day! It's time for the players we love (4:35). ... Scotty starts with his man crush Salvador Perez (6:00). ... BUT he also has the wandering eye for Kyle Schwarber (8:15)! ... If you know Chris, you know he loves Ketel Marte (17:20)! ... Frank says he loves Cody Bellinger but does he, really (24:00)? ... On to the pitchers we love and Chris can't quit Luis Castillo (33:20). ... Honestly, we all love Charlie Morton (41:45). ... Scott has his wandering eye on Ranger Suarez (48:05). ... We wrap up with one of the hype guys this upcoming season in Shane McClanahan (53:40). Is the stuff worth the hard contact he allows?  'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive. Sanofiis is magnificent. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam. Welcome in to a love-filled, soothing edition of Fantasy Baseball today here on Valentine's Day.

I am Frank Stamphill, joined by a returning Scott White, and of course, Chris Towers. Today on the podcast, you guessed it. We're talking about the players. We love one hitter and one pitcher for each of us. Plus, we have some of your emails to read later on in the podcast. What is going on, Scotty? We missed you. How's the voice? I think it sounded better. Oh, yeah. Full disclosure, we're actually recording this on Friday.

So I'm not, I haven't had a whole weekend's rest. I'm hoping it sounds perfect the next time you hear me. But we're clearly trending the right direction and ready to spread some love, Frank. That's right. We're going to spread some love on today's podcast. We're going to have some fun talk about those players. We're targeting in fantasy baseball this season. And yeah, hopefully by my next week, Scottie, voice is good to go.

And we'll get back on track here with our position previews. What's up, Chris? Where does Valentine's Day rank on the holiday scale for you? It's not a holiday. I guess you're right. I don't want to be. like the annoying cynic, but like it was invented to sell

greeting cards and chocolate. Like, you know, just you love people all year around. A special day dedicated to saying, I love you. You can just say it whenever. I love you guys. It's fine. There's no reason we have to say it on the 14th day of

February. You know? Wow. Wow. And also like, who wants to go out on Valentine's Day? It's like the worst day of the year to try to go to a restaurant because it's impossible to get in any place. Everything's overpriced. It's whatever.

My wife and I usually order Chinese food and watch Sean of the Dead. That's our, that's been our Valentine's Day tradition in the past. No one says you have to go out, Chris. I know. There's many fine things to do. There's so much pressure around it. It's just like, more like Valen Lames Day.

Wow. Yeah. Valen Lames time day. Probably. All right. Well, Scott, do you have a more optimistic? Somebody stand you up, Chris. Come on.

No. What were you asking me, Frank? I was going to ask if you have a more optimistic take on Valentine's Day. I may or may not agree with Chris, but I probably wouldn't have intimated it here on the podcast, but it's fine. That's whatever. No, this is fine. It's cool. This is good.

It's fine. It's fine, you know? Nothing crazy. Nothing crazy. Like I said, I think, I think people are going to enjoy this, what we have. I'm here for any day where it is socially acceptable to eat more candy. That is fair. In that regard, I do like Valentine's Day.

It's been referred to as pink Halloween. As far as holiday, like Halloween, among the fake holidays, Halloween is vastly superior. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's fun for everyone. I mean, to what degree is it? Is any holiday not fake, not contrived? I mean, but at least like, at their holidays are,

are ostensibly about a thing that happened or like people who we are honoring. Okay. Valentine's Day is just love. Yeah. Like it's the, it's just the idea that like we're supposed to like concentrate our love for one day. Like, come on. It's silly.

I probably should admit this on the podcast, but my parents still give me candy on Valentine's Day. So whatever. There it is. Make fun of me. Totally fine. They dropped off a nice little care package. filled with a bunch of Ferreira Roche, and I love it. One of my favorite candy. I still get candy

in my Christmas stocking from my parents. Same. It's just a stocking filled with, you know, things that are probably going to be just terrible for my body. But that's fine. Neither here nor there. Cue up the one person on YouTube who's going to put the time code in like, they start talking fantasy at five minutes. All right, whatever. We're going to get into it. Uh, hitters and pitchers that we love this upcoming season. I'll leave it up to you guys, whether you want to talk about your hitter or your pitcher first. Scotty, you are, You are the returning man to the podcast. What would you like to go with first?

A hitter or a pitcher that you love? Well, first, Frank, I'd like to take you on a trip down memory lane. Some names here you may recognize. Jed Lowry, Lucas Duda, Brad Miller, Rougnett Odore, and just last year, Guy Brian Hayes. This is a list of lovers past who all took a turn, tearing my heart in two. So while I'd like to believe in true love

and having eyes for only one, the one, you might even say, when we reach this time of year so amorous when Cupid that grimlin of Eros is shooting his arrows, I can't help but get the wandering eye. So we'll see when called upon if I can contain my life.

or if it leaks like the blood from my whole ridden heart. I'm going to start with a hitter. I just have to, was that a poem that you wrote? It sounds like it. And it was pretty dead. I may not have you're reading that. It had like an iambic pantometer feel to it. I'm going to begin with a hitter, a hitter by the name of Salvador Perez.

I love him for the man he is. and I love him for the man he's going to be. The man he is, of course, is the record holder for home runs by a catcher in a single season, setting that record last year with 48, 48, which tied for the major league lead. He also led the majors in RBI. Only one other catcher has done that home runs in RBI in the same year. And that catcher is, many called the greatest catcher ever, Johnny Bent. She did it twice.

So historic performance, no matter how you look at it, I don't need him to, he doesn't need to make history again to win my love. That was the grand gesture. We don't need grand gestures anymore, Salvador Perez. We just need you to do your thing. And what people sometimes overlook is that he did his thing in 2020 as well. it was a short season. People were quick to dismiss it all. Salvador Perez.

We know who he is. He's not really that amazing hitter. We saw that pandemic shortened season. But no, he proved last year he was. So two years in a row, he's been far and away, the best player at the position where everybody, that position everybody struggles to fill with anything halfway decent. You know, he just, I've said,

it before. He just gets to two-thirds of last year's home run and RBI total. He's probably still a distant number one at the catcher position. It's the biggest single advantage you could give yourself at any position. And, well, I'd like to say, I'd take him whenever. I can say I'll take them anytime, literally any time, no matter what else is going on in round four. All right. And that is, go ahead. I can't stop there, though, Frank. I've told you about this wandering eye of mine. I've had my share of lean and mean.

I want to make a run at a real beef kick now. And Kyle Schwabber is certainly that. He tends to get passed over for his checkered history, but I see only potential in him. Frank, last year, not a lot of people, know this. Kyle Schorber, his 32 home runs, he came in less than 400 at bats, all right? He was on pace for closer to 50 home runs. His point per game production was as good as Teoska Hernandez's. He was amazing. He made some changes to his stance with Kevin Long

while he was still with the Nationals, got back to what he got back to what he was doing more early in his career back in college and whatnot. Getting into his legs more. I know how I feel about those legs, Frank. And we saw what happened. You've always known you're a leg guy. Of course I am. So you can have your John Carlos Stanton with his dashing good looks and his GQ physique.

Pretty but ever so fragile. You can have your sympathetic warrior Mitch Hanigur with, well, I'm not going to say what he comes with. Schwarber has what they have. where it matters. And I dare say he has even more. Fantastic job. A plus by Scott. And now I just feel awful about what I've prepared because it's not nearly as good as that. So shout out to Scottie. I thought you were going to break out in like Michael Kane voice at some point throughout the course there. No, this is this is not. He's got his husky, uh, uh, smelly cat's voice going right now. That is what my wife calls it. She says,

That's my sexy Phoebe voice, which I'm not sure how to interpret that. But it's from a famous friend's episode. This is not from Michael Kane, Frank. This is from me. This is straight from the heart. So I appreciate it. Yes. I appreciate it.

Kyle Swarber is a good one. We have not talked about Kyle Swobber. We did our catcher preview recently, and we obviously talked at length about Salvador Perez. So I'm not sure that there's anything else to add on him. We did a mock draft earlier this week where Scotty did exactly what he said he would do. Fourth round. Robert O'Pres available, jumps on him, regardless of format. That was a head-to-head points mock draft that we did.

But Kyle Schwerber last year, 266 batting average, 32 home runs, 76 runs scored 71 RBI in only 113 games. His isolated power, that is, slugging percentage minus batting average, was 288 among batters with at least 450 plate appearances that ranked sixth in all of baseball. behind only Otani, Fernando Tatis, Bryce Harper, Joey Vado, and Vladimir Guerrero. The question is, how much are we buying these adjustments and the player that we saw last year in Kyle Schwerber? And Chris, you have the pleasure of answering that question now. The ADP, not really getting a lot of credit for what Schwerber did last year.

121.8, he's the 36th outfielder off the board going just behind names like Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Meadows. What do you think of the price tag for Kyle Schwabber? I think it's fine. Did Scott in his lovely breakdown mention that the Rockies are purportedly interested in Kyle Shor? I did not. But if there's anything that can get my heart to go pitter-patter, it's a man in purple. Yeah, yeah. I mean, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe, the list goes on and on.

Yeah, I think Koshua. was really good. You know, obviously there's been a lot of ups and downs, but over the past four seasons, you've basically got 823 OPS, 871, 701, 928. Clearly 928, a bit of an outlier, 701, even more of an outlier. And you can say, well, OPS isn't a fantasy category. And, you know, he hits 250 to 238 in three of those four or two of those four years. Who says OPS isn't a fantasy category? Someone said it's me on Twitter the other day. I was telling him a Cotele which is very rude. But he's got monstrous power, batting average, often an issue for him.

That's going to be the case. But if he did end up signing in course field, that would be slightly less of a problem for him. And I think we could see a, I mean, 280, 275, 40 Homer season. Like, that's not out of the question playing if he played half his games in course field. I think over 40. I think possibly. That's what mainly. forget OPS.

What attracts me to him are the Taters, his ability to mash taters. Like, seriously, like, home run, that's the category. That's what I'm really trying

not to sell short this year. And Schwerber is one of those fulcrum players for me. Yeah, I mean, like we talked about on Friday's podcast. Friday's podcast, yes. You need, what, 26 home runs per lineup spot to have finished in first place last season, I believe was the number.

Sounds about right. He's one of those guys who can help you make up ground when your catcher inevitably hits 12 or, you know, your stolen base sorts hits 8. Kyle Schrober is definitely one of those guys who could potentially help you out with that. So I think there are, yeah, there's a lot to like about him. I don't know if I necessarily love him, but I also think his price is being deflated right now because he doesn't have a team and there's uncertainty around that. But like, Kyle Schwerber's going to play.

It's not like, it's always weird when a player's unsigned and it hurts their value because like, where is Kyle Schwerber going to play where he, where a sign where he doesn't play every day? It's not going to happen. There are 15 new D.H spots open. There are still teams that need outfielders. Like,

he's going to find a place to play. I don't know if I love him either, Chris. My feelings get very confused this time of year. I know I love Salvador Perez, but I just can't get my mind off Schwerber. I just can't. How much is... I'm wondering I. How much is Scottie loves Schwerber?

He hasn't ranked as his 24th outfielder as of now. And as I mentioned, he is 36th in ADP. So quite a bit ahead of ADP there. I do have to point out one thing. What is it? If we're talking about love, I have to defend someone's honor. Uh-oh. Who?

Because Scott keeps saying, Oh, it's the most home runs ever by a catcher. Salvador Perez only hit 31 home runs as a catcher last season. 17 of them came as a designated hitter. Javier Lopez, pride of Ponce Puerto Rico or my family's from. My uncle went to high school with him. I met him as a child. My mother babysat him when he was a kid.

He hit 42 home runs in 2003. No, I know. That's the real record. I have strong feelings for Javi Lopez as well, of course. And all the ladies I grew up with, they had amorous feelings for Javier Lopes. Very attractive guy. So, you know, I hear you.

It's just clumsy to say the most home runs hit by a guy who primarily played catcher and certainly not poetic. I will also point out, Javier Lopez, 2003, 43 homers, 109 RBI, 328 average in 129 games. That was a ridiculous season. Following season, he hit 316. he had an 872 OPS. He was really, really good in 150 games. Only 23 homers, 86 RBI, 83 runs scored.

So, you know, there was significant regression there. And, you know, I'm not saying that will happen for Salvador Perez. But generally speaking, when a player is coming off that kind of outlier performance like Salvador Perez is, which it was like a 50% improvement in his overall career high, there will probably be some regression. That's all I'm saying. It's nothing against it.

I also want to say that was in 2003 when Javier Lopez set that record and he was an impending free agent. And there was 2003. And I saw the size of his biceps. Yeah. That's all I'm saying. On Salvador Perez, we'll put a bow on him as well, even if he regresses, which again, you should expect, 75% of last year's production, 36 homers, 90 RBI. He's going to do that with a batting.

that most likely helps you as well. So yeah, I think he, there's room for regression and for him to still finish as the number one catcher. All of his power and just the numbers he put up last year are supported by Stackcast data as well for what it's worth. I love how, you know, I was worried if this would be enough to fill the whole show. Oh, yeah. We're a quarter of the way into the show and we've talked about one player we love technically.

Yeah, one player we love and one we lust. Chris, you're up, a hitter that you love this season. Oh, we're going. Oh, I have to go with the hitter. You gave Scott the choice, but that's fine. Yeah. I didn't want to go with my hitter first because it's going to be like the 14th time I've mentioned him in my last four podcast appearances. But that is a good sign that I really truly do love Cattal Marte.

I think he is arguably the most underrated hitter, not just in fantasy baseball, but in baseball writ large. Catel Marte has been truly, truly excellent over the past three seasons. Obviously, 2020. Not quite as good. It was actually a really, really bad season. But he was coming off. I believe he had a wrist injury in spring training and just never looked right. But if you just aggregate his last three seasons total, he's hitting 318 with a 917 OPS.

He's 162 game average of 98 runs, 28 home runs, 92 RBI, 8 stolen bases. That would be, if not a first round pick, if we were buying it at face level, it wouldn't be far off. He's getting dinged for injury concerns. He had missed time last season with two different hamstring injuries. That was obviously super frustrating. He got hurt on like the fifth game of the season. But last season, he hit really, really well when he was healthy. It wasn't quite as good as 2019, but you'll take a 320 average 25 home or,

85 runs, 85 RBI, which is basically what he was on pace for. And that's not, I don't think, the stealing. He's held back a little by the home park he plays, and Chasefield has become a pretty tough park for home runs, because this is actually a very large park. And now that they have that humidor, it seems to have hurt. Coutal Marte is potential. He's underperformed his ex-home run,

his expected home runs by 10 over the past three seasons. He has a 48 home run. runs. He was expected to have hit 58. So that maybe, you know, makes it a little harder for him to hit 35 homers, which I think he has the skill set for. But it's also entirely possible he gets traded. And you look at the underlying numbers and they are really, really good, you know, borderline elite as a hitter. 16% strikeout rate with top 3% max exit Velo, 82% and 8,000. second percent average exit Velo, 86% hard hit rate, uh,

above average barrel rate, elite whiff rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected Woba, all of the, all of the indicators for Cotel Marte over the past, three seasons,

but really 2019 and 2021, he's been a top 10% hitter by those underlying metrics according to baseball savon. So top 10 percentile, sorry. And you can get them at 80 second overall in NFBC drafts right now on average. I think Catal Marte is an absolutely borderline elite fantasy player. I think he should be going ahead of Jose Altuve.

I think he should be the number five second baseman in drafts. And I'm going to have just a metric ton of him. All right. Speaking of those metrics, you mentioned a lot of them, Chris. And really, when we did our second base preview, he was the one that stood out above the rest that legitimately he crushes the ball

when he puts it in play which is very often he makes a lot of contact so I think that the power probably takes a little bit of a step back from what we saw in his breakout 2019 he's probably more of like

a load of mid-20s home run guy but even with that strong batting average he's going to get on base and hopefully he's traded I think overall that would help with his counting stats quite a bit Scott what do you think of Chris's claim

that he would take Catele Marte over Jose Altoevei. I know Altuve is someone that you like as well, but probably don't love. Yeah, he's a little short for me. He's 6-1. Jose Al-Tube's 5'6. I was saying Al-Tuve. That's why I'm only in like with him and not out in love with him.

Okay. Anyway, I get where Chris is coming from, but it's a lot of projection versus provenness, I guess. Strong disagree. And, and I just, I just. you know, I really don't have, I feel, I feel more secure with Jose Altuve. Now, fortunately, you know, if Jose Altuve is the one who goes first. So I can't, I can still fall back on Cotel Marte, and I find that I often do in drafts that Chris isn't a part of. So, you know, I'm not trying to take Chris's man away from him, but when Chris isn't there,

I sometimes can't help myself. No, I stand by my man. And just for the record, like what Al Tuvae has on him is probably runs. That's the big advantage. Jose Al Tuva's 162 game pace over the past three seasons is 121 runs. That is really, really, really good. But he's hit 40 points lower in batting average than Catele-Martee.

His 162 game pace and home runs, basically identical 32 to 34. RBI, Catea actually has the edge there, stolen bases, he actually has the edge there. So it's basically, like, I think they're pretty close, but also Cotel Marte is 28 and Jose Al Tuves 32. And I think Jose Al Tuve's injury history recently is more concerning than Marte's. Marte was, you know, strain hamstring that he then had another one a little later in the season, but he doesn't have that, that, like, really worrisome knee injury that Jose Al-Tube was dealing

with. Do you actually, would you actually expect Catele-Marte to hit more home runs than Jose Al-Tu-Ve? Because I don't. No, no, I think it would be pretty close, but, you know, the home parks that they play in, play a big part in that. And I think Cotel-Marte has a lot more raw power.

But Jose-L-Tu-Ve has optimized his swing for the park that he plays in. Cotel-Marte is more of an all-fields hitter into the outfield. You look at his spray chart, and it's like really, really evenly distributed, which is a good sign of a good hitter, but not necessarily the best way to maximize your home run output.

All right. Well, I've got a player. I've got a hitter that I love, but I feel a little bit disingenuous about this player because I haven't wound up with him in any mock draft or any real draft that I've done yet. So do I actually love this player? I don't know.

Let's find out. I think I'm more... It's an unrequited love. You've got a crush that you can't quite bring yourself to ask them out. which I can relate. And that's what Valentine's Day is all about. You've got to work up the courage to tell these people that you love them. Cody Bellinger, I love you, buddy.

I think I love the value more than the actual player, the idea of Cody Bellinger. But the ADP is 88.3. And we're talking about someone that was being drafted inside of the top 20 picks last year when he was on my bus list. And now he's on my sleeper list. I think part of the reason why I don't wind up with him is fantasy pros has incorporated CBS ADP again. his ADP on CBS is 56, and it's much higher than any other website. So obviously, we do a lot of our drafts at CBS. It would make sense.

And I feel like he's just being drafted earlier than I'm seeing him go on other websites. So, I know. For putting the CBS data in, they really screws things, doesn't it? It does. But without that ADP, he's normally going around pick 100. Last year was awful for Cody Bellinger. There's absolutely nothing that I can point to statistically that gives me hope for the future when it comes to Cody Bellinger,

maybe outside of his postseason, which I'll get to, but he played 95 games last year. He hit 165, 10 homers, a 542 OPS. He's playing through a calf injury, which he suffered early on. Don't think he was ever fully healthy coming back from the shoulder surgery

in the off season. He did not play in spring training at all. So for all those reasons, I was worried about him as a second round pick. And we saw, I mean, just how low the floor can be based on those numbers. he finishes the 560 second overall player last year. That's the floor.

We've also seen the ceiling back in 2019 when he won the MVP. He was the fifth overall player that year in fantasy baseball. He has been trending downward since then, the short in 2020, tinkering with his batting stance. You won the MVP. Why are you changing things? We've talked about it. It's a very odd kind of thing that's going on with Cody Bellinger.

I just think he was never healthy last year, and I'm willing to buy back in on someone who I still think has, MVP-ish upside. He probably won't ever get back to that level, but it would not surprise me, and I think where he's going in drafts, it's where you want to take that shot. You want to take a shot on upside around picks

90, 100 in your drafts. The postseason, much better. Only 12 games, he had 353, one homer, five steals, a 906 OPS. Chris, I'm not sure that I have heard your thoughts on Cody Bellinger this off season. A lot of the times it's Bellinger versus Christian Yellich,

which one do you want to take a shot on? Just Bellinger. What are your thoughts on him? Well, one thing I would point out is the postseason 906 OPS when you hit 353, not actually that impressive because 706 of those 906 OPS points come from the batting average. So that means he either had an ISO of around 200 and didn't have a walk or had an ISO lower than 200 and walked a few times. So just to point that out, the 906 OPS, unless he hits 353 next season in which he will probably win the National League MVP, 906 OPS doesn't really tell a meaningful story there, even above the 12 games that he played.

All right. Just rip my heart out, Chris. It's fine. I think, well, look, you asked me what I think. You asked me what I think, and you heard me be a big curmudgeon about Valentine's Day. So what did you expect? Frankly, this is on you. Yeah.

The ISO was just 118 in the postseason for what it's worth. So quite bad. I think he's a. a fine bounce back candidate. I think there are a lot of reasons beyond, you know, there are a lot of reasons except for what he actually did last season to believe that he can bounce back. He's 26 years old. He was an elite prospect who played at a neatly level in the majors. We've seen him, you know, make that big debut, suffer a setback, and then get better. So we've seen him make the adjustments already. And, you know, 2020, the weird thing was 2020, he,

kept the strikeout rate low. He sustained the breakout strikeout rate and he just couldn't get good results. But the underlying numbers weren't bad. They weren't as good, but they still suggested he should have been a well above average hit. Last season, nothing was good. There was nothing. Like, he wasn't even good on defense, really. Like, he was fine, but he wasn't like the very good defender we've seen.

He was an awful hitter, abysmal at everything. There was nothing he did well as a hitter. And so it's really, really hard to look at the numbers and say, well, at least he did this well, which you can do with Christian Yelich. I know you didn't want the comp, but Christian Yelich at least hit the ball extremely hard last season. That is one thing about Christian Yelch game that has not changed despite the injuries and the underperformance. Bellinger doesn't even have that. His max exevalo was below average last season.

So it wasn't even like, oh, well, there was a sign. At least he rocked this one. It's a leap of faith, which that's often what love is. You don't know if things are going to work out. You know, there's a there's a quote from one of my favorite songwriters, Jason Isbell, where he says, you know, life always has an unhappy ending. And so, you know, that may be the case with Cody Bellinger. Wow. These are your influences.

It's taking a leap of faith in a guy who has shown that elite potential and that elite performance. And I think that's a good thing to do when the price is low enough. Yeah. Can he just stay healthy too? That's another factor. And Chris, one that I know you like quite a bit. For what it's worth, obviously Scott Boris is Cody Bellinger's agent. And he says a bunch of crazy things every offseason. But here's what he had to say. Scott Boris do be saying things. He says a bunch of crazy stuff. Here's what he had to say about Cody Bellinger. Quote, he was injured to Cody's credit. He tried to play. And the Dodgers played him because he's a gold glove caliber player at two positions. He learned a great deal about himself last year. Says he will be back to full strength in the Spring. Scotty, you mentioned someone you have the wandering eye for was Kyle Schwabber. Who would you rather have? Schwabes or belly? Let me consult my rankings here.

I don't need to consult my heart. Consult your heart. I can just consult my heart. Exactly, Chris. Got Kyle Schwaber 24th. I got Bellinger, I believe, 30th. So, yeah, I mean, I cannot share those same feelings

for him that you have, Frank, because that beef cake I lust after is going 20 picks later. Fair enough. I also have the wandering eye, and a few players that I've mentioned recently, but I also considered for this exercise, Francisco Lindor,

Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Arias, who we spoke about quite a bit on this week's second. You know, you got the wandering, like, I got to say, when Adam Azer did this,

Frank, it was very, like, it was much more like monogamous. you know, really, you know, proven, a proven way to have a fulfilling life, right? We loved one person and we stood by them, you know, you're here promoting. The era of the nuclear family is gone, Frank. It's the, Scott, it's the 60s.

It's all about free love. This is some real fall of the Roman Republic type of behavior you're promoting here, Frank. And I don't know that it's, I don't know that it's, I don't know that. that it's, that we're doing people a service, frankly. All right, well, the player I love is Cody Bellinger, but just thought I would mention the ones that I consider. You're right, Scott. There's nothing wrong with having a crush.

I do. I have a few. All right, let's take a quick break before we do that. Subscribe to our YouTube channel if you haven't already. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. You can watch this video. We have an awesome Valentine's Day themed background here on Stream Yard, where we're recording this. So you can watch it live.

Well, not live, but you can watch it on demand. You can watch most of our other podcast live weeknights, usually around like 10 or 11 p.m. Eastern Time. So subscribe if you haven't already. When we return, we'll talk about the pitchers we love here on fantasy baseball today. All right, Chris, you referenced that you had a pitcher that you wanted to talk about, and I didn't give you the opportunity to do so. So you will start us off here with the pitcher that you love.

I love Luis Castillo. I think people are whole, like this is one of those things where we do a lot in fantasy sports. across every sport really. And it's a natural thing is when you love someone and they hurt you, you tend to hold it against them. You know, that's a, it's a very human reaction.

You trust this person. You put a lot of faith in them. And they hurt you. And that makes it hurt worse. You made yourself vulnerable. And that hurts even more. And Luis Castillo probably a little overrated at times in his fantasy career. People talked, he was a top 10 pitcher going into last season.

He was someone that people thought, you know, this guy is going to be the anchor of my team. And instead, he was an anchor on your team for most of the first two months of the season, really, maybe a little longer. He was pretty bad. The thing was, when you checked under the hood, he looked like the same guy. You know, it wasn't like Luis Castillo was all of a sudden going about town and seeing lots of people. and he was just going through a rough patch and we all do that. To air as to human is human.

To forgive, well, that's just groovy, baby. That's a quote from something. I don't know what it's from. Austin Powers. Is it? Yeah,

there you go. I don't know if it's a one movie franchise scene. It doesn't even have Adam Sandler. And when you look at Louise Castillo, you look under the hood, Strikeout Ray was lower last season. It's been since 2018. 23.9% walk rate, 9.3% a little up, but actually lower than 2019.

Still elite. Elite at managing quality of contact. 4.5% barrel rate allowed. That was right where it was in 2020. His change up, still a very good pitch, got very good results. Whiff rate, a little down on that in the fastball, but overall, not that concerning. Velocity wasn't down, spin rate wasn't down, arm angle didn't look any different. Basically, everything except the results for Luis Castillo looked right. And that's why I never gave up faith in him last season. And I was ultimately rewarded. What was that?

You never quit on him. No, I, because you know what? You don't quit on love. You got to work through the hard parts. Life isn't easy. Life isn't a fairy tale. You know, this is every time, I've been married for 12 years now. Oh, here we go.

And every time one of my friends gets married, I always tell them, like, you know, don't, don't get this fantasy in your head that it's just going to be all, you know, lollipops and roses. It's work. It's hard work to be in a relationship to love someone. You have to put in that work every day. You choose to love. You choose to love. Exactly. And Luis Castillo, as often happens when you love someone and you keep your faith in them. He rewarded that love and that faith. from June 1st on, 22 starts, 273 ERA, 334 FIP, 144 strikeouts, and 135.1 innings. He was the guy we've grown to love, and I think he will be that this year, and he is cheap. He is a good player to draft right now, so I don't have the ADP in front of me. I don't know if he'd appreciate you saying that about it.

83.8. I hope you're not putting in the car for sending him. People have given up on Luis Castillo, and they shouldn't, because he should still be a top 20 starting pitcher, possibly even top 15. I love Louise Castillo. I appreciate the commitment to love there on Luis Castillo. You mentioned the NFBC ADP.

Overall, on FanTracks, it is 68 right now, so still a sixth round pick. He is cheaper than he usually is. I would not call Luis Castillo cheap. Plus, that's just like a mean thing to say. You mentioned, Chris, that love is hard work. You know what else is hard work? Pitching in cold weather, which is why Luis Castillo got off to such an awful start last year.

Apparently, his agent tweeted at me on opening day, confirming that Luis Castillo does not pitch well in cold weather. I actually have Luis Castillo on my bus column, and here is why. The whip is going to crush you. 1.22 whip or higher in three of the last four seasons, even last year over those final four months, with a 273 ERA, he had a 1.20 whip. The swinging strike rate took a huge step.

back last year. And if you just look at his range of outcomes, this is where he's finished at starting pitcher the last four seasons. 62, 25, 14, 50. The upside is high-ish. The downside is also pretty low-ish for Luis Castillo. So I am a little bit more skeptical myself. And Scotty, you need to break the tie here. Where do we come out on Louise Castillo? More pessimist or more optimist, the love that Chris Howards has shown? Well, who am I to stand in the way of love? I'll just say that first of all. But I have any interest I may have had in Luis Castillo romantically is no more. There's no more. He's, look, he's still a good pitcher, right? I still have him in my top 25. But Chris even said it himself. I think what last year really brought home,

is that we've been overrating him all along. Because even from June 1st on, when he turned his season around 273 ERA from that point forward, he had a 1.2 whip. Apparently, you don't love Frank enough to have listened to what he was saying just now. Did you just say that, Frank? Yes, I did.

Did you mention the 9.6K per 9 during that stretch? I didn't mention that, but I mentioned the swinging strike rate was lower last year. It is also not particularly impressive. But no, you're right. I mean, just look over the course of it. his career, whips at or over 1.2 are the norm, not the exception. Now, maybe he can get the strikeouts back up. He has done that before, but it doesn't look like a certainty.

And really, if you just, just a whip, just, you know, that's a bad whip by today's standards. It kind of makes me chuckle because when I first started doing this, like a good whip was like 1.25 or better. You know, that's just how much the game has changed during that time. that now 1.2 whip, I think in words of you, Frank, is it'll crush you. But, like, that's a knock against him. I mean, that kind of in and of itself prevents him from being a true ace. You know, he should deliver a respectable ERA. The strikeout should be at least respectable.

And he's fine as a number three in fantasy. But I don't really have any illusions of him being a number one anymore. I'm sorry, Chris. That we, that we... One point two o' whip just for the record was about, average for a pitcher in fantasy last season. So let's not overstated. A fantasy pitcher or a pitcher in general?

A fantasy pitcher. Okay. Scott. All right. You attack the man I love. You know what? It's fine. It's fine.

You don't have to. You don't know him like I do. You don't see him. You don't see him when you guys aren't around how he treats me. The Marlins tore you two apart. He could have been. one of the stallions. Don't even get me started on

the people the Marlins have taken away from me. For Fernando Rodney, Chris. The bad boy. Oh, man. Well, if it's any consolation, Chris, obviously, the Marlins have a really good pitching. He was the Dan Straeli trade. Yeah.

Oof. Okay, Luis Castillo is Dancerley. Yeah, you're right. Dan Strelie, by the way, I believe he signed a minor league contract with the kind of interesting. The Diamondbacks? Yeah.

It was with a team, and he's coming back from the K-E- So I'm kind of interested to see what Dan Staley has in his second run here in the majors. Scottie. Fernando Rodney was Chris Paddock. That is correct. It makes it feel any better. Yeah.

Which probably does now, I don't know. Yeah, probably does. Scottie, you're up, man. No, not really. Still pretty bad. Scotty, a pitcher that you love. You know who I'm gonna say. Charlie Morton.

Oh, Charlie. So true, so reliable. Kind of guy who you can take home to mom. Charlie Morton last year, I just, I feel the need to read off some numbers. 334 ERA. That's compared to a 332 XERA, a 331 X-FIP, a 318 FIPP. Just across the board, everybody says what he brought was real. And so does a track record, frankly.

I mean, 2020, the ERA was a little high. He was dealing with some health issues early on. Definitely got things back on track as the season played out. Had a strong postseason while he was still with the race. But that's really the only blemish on his track record here in the last four years. ERA, always in the low threes. Strikeout rate, K-per-9, always 10.5 or higher. Great ground ball pitcher, great bat misser.

There's really nothing negative, you can say. about Charlie Morden except, you know, he's a little past his prime. He's 38. You know, maybe, maybe, maybe can't, maybe can't quite keep up with the younger fellas in every regard, every respect. But, but, you know, still very, very strong and capable. And here's the thing. I would take him if, if it was entirely up. to me, I would take him in round four, probably. That's how I've, I mean, I guess I couldn't because I'm already taking Salvador Perez, right? But theoretically, I would take Charlie Morton in round four.

I'm finding I don't have to. He makes it to round six or round seven. And how strange it is that no one seems to pursue him like I do, how he arouses no feelings of desire. It fills me with longing for just a dash of danger. Yes. Age ain't nothing but a number. You know, age is an underrated, you know, experience, maturity, a 401K. These are all underrated things to look for in a potential partner.

The only thing I wonder is, do I love Charlie Morton more than you do, Scott? I don't know. have him at starting pitcher. I think this is the player that we all love together. We all have him ranked inside of our top 16 starting pitchers. I have 14. You do love him slightly more than I do. I have him 15. Nobody can love Charlie more than I do. His 80p right now is the 28th starting pitcher off the board. And again, we all have him inside of our top 15 starting pitcher ranks. So, the thing is, if you take what he does over the last five years really at face value, he's a number one starting picture, really.

The only exception was that 2020 season, which Scott already said was weird. But over the past five seasons, 334 ERA, 325 FIP, well over a strikeout printing. I mean, his per season, his per full season pace is 225 strikeouts. Very good whips. It's just an anti-age bias. And that's fine. You know what? You can ding someone who is 38 years old.

but at some point you're doing too much dinging. Well, you can never do too much dinging, Chris. But, you know, I thought about going there and I never expected Scott.

It's a little talent. Anyway, um, nobody's, the sun is still out, Scott. Max Scherzer is still old, is old too.

And we don't see people dinging him. Yeah. And I almost actually went with Justin Verlander for my pitcher who I love. I almost, I almost did. The wandering eye looked his direction. But I just, I had the glare of Kate Upton back on me and I scurried on. Yeah, like Jose Barrios is going ahead of Charlie Morton.

Jose Barrios is fine. But, you know, talk about a player we've spent half a decade over rating. It's Jose. He, like, last year was the first time he was the pitcher we hoped he would be. And all of a sudden he's better than Charlie Morton, Frankie Montas. Dylan Cease is better than Charlie Morton. What? And one FCADP, Dylan Sees is going around ahead of Charlie Morton.

It is. That's Alec Manoa. No, no. I can't even like, even from the like, oh, he's young and interesting. Like take the guy who's done it. Yeah. It's all these guys, Dylan Sees, Frankie Montas, Alec, Alec Manoa, Trevor Rogers are the four pitchers being drafted ahead of Charlie

Morin and NFBC ADP. You're hoping any of those guys can do what Charlie Morton has done four of the past five seasons. He's been remarkably consistent for a guy his age. It doesn't make any sense. I like all those guys fine. But there's no reason to think that you should be drafting Trevor Rogers ahead of Charlie Morton.

It is egregious that those guys are going ahead of Charlie Morton. Go ahead, Scott. I should mention Charlie Morton last we saw him, he broke his leg in the World Series. So it may not be entirely just age, but that really shouldn't influence the thinking heading into the season. He should be fine. He's not so old that we should be worried about osteoporosis. I think more what it is is what I was getting at before I was interrupted and how he's just a little too. predictable. I don't know about you, but when I see how people aren't clamoring for him,

it does give me this longing for a dash of danger. Yes, to mix things up with a Ranger. Ranger Suarez is who I have the wandering eye for. He possesses so many attractive qualities, a ground ball rate that would rank first among qualifiers. Forget that Framber Valdez and Logan Webb would also rank ahead of him if they qualified. That's not important. The point is it is an elite ground ball rate, an elite ability to prevent damage. And usually when you have that ability is that good, it doesn't come with strikeout per inning kind of stuff the way it does for Suarez.

and also Logan Webb. I mean, the two are coming off very similar showings. 136 ERA is what Ranger Suarez had last year. And in his 12 starts, it was 151. That is amazing. What is lower his 2021 ERA or his current ADP? His current ADP? his current ADP.

He's the 138th player off the board on average going around 142, pick 142 actually. And I don't really I know his best stretch at the end of last season

when he started going six innings plus I think he even had a complete game shut out in there. So he's been stretched out. He's been tested over a bigger workload like that. And I know it was a getting a lot of bad teams. But they were still major league teams

who still are capable of doing damage on any given day. Often it gets better pitchers than Swares. And before he got stretched out, he had some tougher matchups. I think he shut down the Dodgers for like four and a third innings or something when he was still building up.

And all the work in relief, where he was not giving up any runs either. So, no, I don't really think he can repeat a 136 ERA or even a 236 ERA but if he gives you a 336 ERA at that price you know it's it's gonna be well worth it the reasons to be skeptical would be

one he's not a one pitch pitcher but he throws his fastball 70% of the time and you don't see a lot of guys succeed that way especially not when they're not mixing in like a cutter or something like Lance Lynn does and he really, really relied on elite quality of contact suppression in a small sample size. And that is the skill for pitchers that probably takes longest to stabilize. That's the one that you probably can't

say. Like, you need, like, Luis Castillo has done it every single season of his career, even last season. Right. It wasn't all that good. No, I agree. Kyle Hendricks has historically done. So, but that in conjunction with the elite ground ball rate, I think, you know, that, that you could see how one would lead to the other. Yeah. No, it's, at, his price and it's actually even cheaper on NFC. He's 173.7 in ADP. Like, absolutely take a flyer on Ranger Swarres. Yeah, I'll admit that I've had trouble, you know, forming an opinion on Ranger Suarez. I see what he did last year. And you're right, Scott. I mean, you can only pitch against the, the teams that you're lined to pitch,

you're lined up against. And those final nine matchups, Diamondbacks, Ray's, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Rockies, that game was in Philly, Cubs, Orioles, Orioles, Pirates, Marlins. So really strong matchups, but he dominated. And we've seen other pitchers in good matchups falter at times. So he did a great job of that, but yeah, I think he's going to be polarizing. I think he could go a few different directions. But if you like him at his cost, you should be investing in Ranger Suarez. It does feel a little, Zacc. Pleasaki. It does. It does. And so, you know, I did have an affinity for Pleasak last year, I'll admit. You would think it would turn me from those ways.

But, you know, I just, so when push times to shove, I can't totally commit on Ranger Suarez. Okay. But I like to keep someone on the back burner, you know what I'm saying? Just in case life's circumstances change. So what I'm going to do, I'm going to send him the B Valentine's package, maybe not going all out with flowers and whatnot, but, you know, like a thoughtful greeting card. with a vague message inside. What does it mean?

Not a be mine heart, but thinking of you. It means whatever your imagination allows it to mean, Ranger. I can't say I love you. I can't do that to Charlie, but I got my eye on you, Ranger. Scott's got a wondering eye. Scott's got SPs and different zip codes. There you go.

I could have sworn 20 minutes ago. Scott yelled at me about monogamy and here he is saying. Well, no, you brought this out of me, Frank. Everybody has that animal instinct in them. It needs to be contained by societal norms. And you've, you've, you've allowed it to burst free. All right. Well, good thing my fiance does not listen to this podcast. I can just hear, I can just see the, the intro for big love playing every time Scott, Scott's talking here. A picture I love. And honestly, Scott, I thought this was going to be a picture that we loved entering the season. But unfortunately, you've

turned your back on this guy that we had conjoined love for last season. And it is my man, Shane O. Mac. Shane McClaintonhan is awesome. A 3.43 ERA last season. A higher whip Luis Castillo-esque, one might even say 1.27 was the whip over a strikeout per inning. The guy is electric. He throws upper 90s with a fastball. He has

awesome secondary pitches as well. Has 4 different pitches he uses at least 8% of the time. That's Ranger Suarez. Uh, texting you back, Scott. So there you go. Make sure you answer him after this podcast. Yeah, that's those of the those of those people in different zip codes Chris was talking about. Uh, Shane McClainhan by the way, the swinging strike rate last year, elite 14.8% that was tied for eighth among starting pitchers, but at least 120 innings pitched last season. He is not a perfect pitcher. I realize that he his fastball got hit very hard last year.

308 batting average against a 500 slug. Kind of has this Shane Bieber thing going on when Bieber first got called up, lived in the zone, maybe a little bit too much. But I think the secondary pitches are great. They're good enough to the point where I think eventually everything will come together and they'll, you know, he has to work on the pitch mix, no doubt about it.

He's a young pitcher. He's got to figure some things out here. But I love Shane McClanhan. I love the stuff. He's a hype guy. He's someone, a lot of people are, projecting to break out. And I am one of those people. Scotty, why have you turned your back on Shane O'Mack? You know how you have an interest in somebody? Well, we're all married.

So back in the day, you might have an interest in somebody. You're not married, Frank, but you're getting there. Almost. And, you know, but then you see so many people are interested in them. And it's just like, you know what? It's not worth the trouble. It's not worth the trouble. And I'm not going to be able to compete with too many people. Stand out in that crowd. Yeah.

And that's kind of how I feel about Shane McClanahan. It's just a little to, people are kind of giving him credit for things he hasn't done. I mean, I clearly brimming with potential and he could take a huge step forward, he's also with the raise. He also, a lot of questions about the workload. And, you know,

for as impressive as his arsenal is, he got hit really hard last year. Really hard. That's how people overlook. In terms of quality of contact, I mean, not in terms of results necessarily. So that,

you know, that's a, I don't think it's going to be an issue for him, but it does raise that alarm. It does, you know, there is, there is that red flag that that causes me to hesitate where maybe others don't.

And, you know, it's worth remembering when he got called up, you know, there was no doubting the stuff. Prospect people have loved his stuff for a long time. But he's always been viewed as a potential reliever. In fact, the, you know, most of the reports that you would read before he got called up, you know, a lot of them suggested that he's more likely to end up as a reliever than a starter. And then he got called up and we saw, well, actually, he's got this really good four-pitch mix. So why would he end up as a reliever?

But the raise, he averaged less than five innings per start last season. And his fastball especially, Scott, Frank, you mentioned 308 batting average against 500 slug. That's really bad. He was also extraordinarily lucky to have results that good with his fastball. His expected batting average allowed was 322. His expected slugging percentage was 573. Average exit velocity allowed on his fastball, 94.4 miles per hour with a 15-degree launch angle.

His fastball basically turned every hitter he faced into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last season. Didn't even have that good of a whiff rate with it. Obviously, as with Ranger Suarez, he's kind of the anti-Ranger Suarez. He's got four pitches instead of, you know, effectively two. and gets a lot of whiffs, he gets a lot of strikeouts, but he was among the worst pitchers in baseball in terms of suppressing quality of contact in 2021.

And that's a thing that you should expect some significant regression from. He probably won't have a 424 expected Wobon contact allowed, which was, I mean, I don't know if I've seen a worse starting pitcher so far in my 2022 research. So that'll probably regress. The question is, can he regress to just plain bad or even slightly below average rather than, oh, my God, hide the children every time he gives up a piece of contact? That's the key.

And it's a pretty big question because his XERA last season was 460. But there is no doubting the talent. He is electric. You watch him pitch and he looks like the real deal. And so it could just be a question of refinement. Yeah. And if there's any organization I would trust to refine a starting pitcher, it is Shane McClanahan.

Look no further than his teammate Tyler Glassnow, who they got back on track last year before he got hurt, obviously, and he was pitching like a top 10, top five starting pitchers. So at some point, you just trust the stuff. And I realize that the draft cost is higher than I would want it to be. A lot of people are, you know, baking in that breakout potential with his ADP right around 100. but I've seen him go later than that.

If I can wind up with him as my SP3 in a deeper league or my SP4, which is what happened in our Points League mock draft the other day, then I'm perfectly fine with that when it comes to Shane McClanahan. And I understand like Tampa Bay Rays, you might be worried about the workload. Last year, he pits 129 innings between the regular and the postseason.

I would say, you know, that normal endings jump like 20, 30 innings. So like 150, 160, can we get there? They need him. Look at their rotation right now. McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Corey Klober, Ryan Yarbrough, Luis Patino. They need a horse. They need someone to be that guy

at the front end of their rotation. And I think McClanahan's going to be that guy. We saw a portion of the season last year from June through August, where he threw six plus in six of 11 starts. Yeah, not a great ratio, but he's building up. He's slowly building up.

So I think that he will be better in that regard this upcoming season. Some good news. if you do a search for the worst expected well-bond contact in baseball and you limit it to 250 plate appearances as the max, which is the minimum, which is the highest you can go

on baseball salon. He wasn't the worst pitcher in terms of expected Wobon contact. Look at that. He was only 14th worst out of 279 pitchers. This is very concerning. Blake's now was fifth worst with a 440 expected Wobon contact allowed.

And oh my God, Terrick Scouble, 455 expected Wobon contact, the very worst in baseball. I did not see that. Yeah, it is. Oh, and out of love with him. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Shane McClanagan gives up more hard contact, but he keeps the ball on the ground a little better. You know, 8.5 degree average launch angles, Tariq Scoobel, 90.5 degree, or mile per hour, average exit velocity, 14.1 degree average launch angle. That is a lot of line drives.

Yeah, a lot of similarities between those two, actually. I think Scoobel has some pretty nasty stuff as well, but he's just got to figure out how to put it all together. He does allow a ton of hard contact. And for what it's worth, Jack Flaherty was actually right there with Shane McClainan. In terms of expected Wobon contact allowed, that's certainly a little concerning.

Flaherty's another one. Not really sure what to make of him. I don't think that I like the cost right now. It was like a fifth round. The last two seasons is 503 and 489. All right. Well, Scott. Don't love Jack Flaherty.

Do not love Jack Flaherty. Remember that time that we thought we were going to get to mailback questions and that we couldn't use a whole hour to talk about players we love? I'm not the guest last night. Like, oh, it's a little bit 45 minutes. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Whatever.

Anyway, we had some fun. We had some fun. We had some wandering eyes. Some players we loved. Some players we lust. But we're going to wrap it there. for Scottie and Chris. I have Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.