Fantasy Baseball Today - Points League Mock Draft Review! How Important is SP? (02/05 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 5, 2020

Last season, Heath drafted a SP with each of his first four picks. How did that work out? Can you win with that strategy? We also answer a quick question about Jo Adell (8:00) before getting into the mock draft ... So, how much should we be valuing SPs in this format (12:00)? Lucas Giolito went ahead of Jose Altuve for crying out loud! Should Gerrit Cole be drafted second overall (23:05)? Was George Springer a reach at 17th overall (25:43)? Was Fernando Tatis a steal in Round 5 (28:00)? Can you win if you draft mostly hitters early (31:00)? And how should you value Shohei Ohtani (32:55)? ... We go through the first five rounds with our commentary (35:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. With fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Mock draft review, format very, very important in fantasy baseball. And today we're looking at a head-to-head points mock draft where 11 of the first

21 picks were starting pitchers. And 21 at the first 48. Hey, hey, 11 of 21 is a higher percentage than 21 of 48. You will not find a more convincing stat than 11 of 21. We're starting pitchers. Oh my gosh. Lucas G. Alito went ahead of Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, Zander Bogart's, Bryce Harper, and Raphael Devers, and Charlie Blackman and Anthony Rizzo.

And I think when Scott took Lucas Gialito, I think everybody else in the draft was like, okay, let's take some hitters now. But that was just kind of crazy just to think about that. Also, 11 of 21 is a high ratio. It hurt to make that pick. I can confirm. It hurt to make it. You shouldn't have made it. Well, I disagree.

I'm happy with the way things turned out. Okay, I was not in this draft, but Scott and Chris were. Scott had the fifth pick. Chris had the 11th pick. Hey, Chris. Hi, what's up? Oh, you know, just got done talking about Mookie Betts like 12 hours ago. So here we are on Wednesday afternoon, and we're going to go through this 12 team head-to-head points league

and talk about how valuable starting pitchers are in this format and how often you should get them. Talk about a team that Heath Cummings actually drafted and played out. It's one thing to talk about mock drafts, but last year, Heath Cummings in our podcast Points League, same format as this, 12 teams. Let's just look at this team that he drafted. And I don't know if you remember how well he did. I looked it up before the show. But this was Heath's team that he drafted.

In what league? This podcast league last year. The podcast points league. Yeah. Same format. 12 team points. And for all of you who are unfamiliar, five starting pitchers, two relief pitchers.

And there are what we call Sparps starting pitcher as relief pitcher. Guys like this year, Carlos Carasco, Carlos Martinez, they have RP eligibility. They can be used as RPs, but they're more valid. valuable than regular relief pitchers. One catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, and a utility spot. So shallow league with five starters, two relievers, and those hitters.

Okay, anyway, Heath had the 11th pick. He picked Garrett Cole, Jacob de Grom, James Paxton, and Zach Granky with his first four picks. He had three of the top six pitchers, starting pitchers with his first four picks, plus James Paxton, who was great in the second. half. His hitters, I hope you have a vomit bag. Abrae, Brantley, Hanager, McCutcheon, Ramos, Gallo, Brian Dozier, Paul DeYoung, Malick Smith, Scooter Jeanette, Young Ho Gong, Miguel Seno. I doubt he held

on to Miguel Seno and got the productive version of Miguel Sano. But in addition to Cole de Grom, Paxton, and Granke, he also got Tyler Glass now. the 10th round or something. He got Zach Godley, Luke Weaver, and that's pretty much, Josh Hader is a reliever. So, amazing pitching, horrible hitting. How do you think Heath did last year?

Horrible hitting on draft day. He was 10 and 8. Oh, Scott. You're supposed to guess. Oh, sorry. I'm just looking it up. I didn't realize. He was 10 and 8.

He finished fifth, and then he made the semifinals. He lost in the semifinals. Yeah. Interesting strategy. Yeah. Pretty good year. And I would say that it sounds like he had some bad luck with hitters, certainly Scooter Jeanette.

And it sounds like maybe he targeted some hitters he shot it too. But it doesn't matter. As bad as his hitting was, the pitching was still enough to carry him on its own. Yeah. And I wish I could look up the hitting he had in the fantasy playoffs or downstretched because it was so much different than, I mean, obviously at Hanager. and McCutcheon and like Ramos was really bad but it was so much too much. LeMayhew was on his team. He had Danny Santana.

That's obviously a midseason pickup. If you can be uncomfortable with your hitting on draft day and just say I'm going to play the waiver wire, maybe this strategy works. Of course, if you draft four pitchers with your first four picks, Chris, doesn't mean you're going to do as well as Heath did getting three of the top six. Well, yeah, like the hit rate for pitchers is closer to half. And I mean, when you're dealing with a sample of four, you might hit three, and that works out really well. But on the whole, you should probably expect, you know, half of even the very good pitchers that you draft to not live up to expectations.

And in that case, he probably got like a 95th percentile outcome. for the four pitchers that he drafted collectively. You know what's funny? You certainly can't expect that kind of result every time. He took DeGrom and Garrett Cole with his first two picks. The pick before DeGrom was Chris Sale. And the pitcher who went after Garrett Cole, three picks later, was Corey Klover. And he probably would have been with both of those guys.

No, if his team was, oh, you mean on draft day? Yeah, if he picked. Right. If he had picked Salem and Kluber, he would have had a horrible year. But he picked DeGron and Cole, that's this fit. Like, that is what is so frustrating about fantasy. Like, there's no problem at all with picking Sale and Klover. And you would have had a really bad year if you had done that probably.

One thing that makes it easier this year, though, and I don't exactly remember how the talent was distributed across starting pitcher last year. But, like, going, like, just committing to first four picks need to be a pitcher. Like, just making an extreme plan ahead of time like that and holding to it no matter what is always a bad way to go. usually a bad way to go. I feel like there are enough pitchers with high-end potential that if you're looking to get four of them, it's not like you have to use your first four picks to do that. In this draft, I think I used, I know my first pick was on a hitter, right?

And I think my fourth or fifth pick was on a hitter. And I still ended up with four good pitchers. So there is enough, like, genuinely. or at least they have the potential to be top-tier pitchers and hitters as well, that there are going to be some available for you at a later point in the draft than was probably true last year. Some of both available to you. Scott's first four picks out of the five spot were Bellinger, Beaver, Gialito, and Nola. So we'll get into that.

Yeah. And I think I do want to add this, though, Scott. Last year, Heath was probably an outlier. This year, I think a lot of people are going to be in points leagues much more aggressive with starting pitcher than they were even last year. So I maybe, you know what I mean? Like the pitchers are going to fly off the board. Maybe you really do need four of your first six picks were starting pitchers this year

in this draft that you did last week. Yeah. Did I say something? No, no. No, I'm just saying you have to be very aggressive if you want four good starting pitchers. Yeah. You know how long you can wait. Cool. Okay, let's read an email real quick. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

Email is from John. Hi, John. After the Angels acquired Jack Peterson yesterday, does that do anything to Joe Adele's value? Does this affect his value for 2019? No. No, I think we've seen Jack Peterson play first base. If anything, maybe this represents an opportunity for the Amosso. to finally kind of pull the plug on Albert pool holes. I mean, he's going to play a little bit at DH when Otani's not there, but Peterson does have the versatility to play a corner and a first base spot. I don't

see any reason they would push Joe Adele back just because of Jock Peterson, a guy who is a good hitter but can't hit lefties. What I was saying, yeah, I was agreeing with you. I wasn't saying, yeah, it changes

this timetable, just to be clear. But I saw a lot of people asking that on Twitter. And the only way I think that makes sense is if you were convinced Adele was going to make the club out of spring training, which I, yeah, he was pretty bad when he got the moved up to AAA last year. So I didn't think there was much chance of that. But I do think he's at a stage in his career where once he proves he's ready, he's up. And there will be, they will be able to find a spot for him, whether it's moving Peterson to first base or, Um, something's going to happen. Something else.

Justin Upton struggled to stay healthy last season and wasn't any good. So there's no guarantee he bounces back. Jog Peterson can't play every day. Albert Poohoes can't play every day. Shohei Otani can't play every day. They'll find some kind of, uh, some kind of way to make this work. And Joe Adele, you know, it could be someone gets hurt and Joe Adele gets the call. It could be it's May 15th and he's just crushing it in AAA.

Uh, it is worth noting he's had struggles with, strikeouts at AAA and then when he was in the Arizona Fall League. He was a little underwhelming there as well. They sent him there at the end of the season. I think partially because he just didn't play all that much last year because of a hamstring strain early in the season. And, you know, there's a little bit of risk in his profile for a young player. It's not quite as much risk, I think, as Luis Robert. He is also not going nearly as high. but it's similar upside.

Adele went 191st overall in this 12-te-head-to-head points league, and that was the end of round 16, right in front of Kris Davis. Wow, what a fall from grace for Chris Davis. Interesting. I feel like I'm going to have a lot of Chris Davis this year, just saying. Okay, yeah, go ahead, Scott. He definitely, it definitely seems like one of those picks that could either be, a huge reward or just a total waste.

It all depends on whether you think his collapse was skill related or health related. Health. And whether or not he's healthy now. The single most consistent player in baseball for three or four straight years and then just has a horrible season, health. What do you think? And a hip seems like I'm not a professional baseball player or a doctor, but a hip injury seems like a pretty good

reason to have a down year. I agree, Dr. Towers. So everybody follow along online if you can. If you're listening to this today on Wednesday, February 5th, signing day, congratulations, to all the prospects who signed today. Go to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball or just CBSports.com slash fantasy and then click baseball. And there's a link you'll see immediately, head to head points, mock draft, or something

like that. Try to follow along if you can. into this later. Just kind of search through there, scroll down. It'll be somewhere in there. You'll find it. Okay. So, first question is, how much should starting pitchers be pushed up in this format? Did you hear that 11 of the first 24 picks were pitchers? 21 of the first 48, actually. That's pretty, it was very extreme. It was very extreme. So, yeah. And that's what I've been seeing, not just in this format, but I've been seeing it in, in,

Roto 2. You know, obviously extreme relative to what we're used to seeing in Roto. So maybe not 21 of the first 48 picks. But people, I, people, I plan to go heavy after starting pitching this year. And yet I had prior to this draft, I had not been doing it as well as most everybody else and had been dissatisfied with the way my pitching looked as a result. Okay. So you went with four starting pitchers with your first six.

I didn't know if you were done there. Yeah, I announce. You have trouble figuring that out sometimes. Maybe it's me. Maybe I don't. No, it's probably me. I was probably, I think, Scott, no offense.

Do I just. Not a very particular style of talking. And oftentimes when I'm listening to the podcast, I have a moment where I'm like, did it cut out? Did it drop? You know, I think sometimes I come to the end of the sentence and I'm honestly not sure if I want to continue or not. But then I think,

That makes it well enough, so I just don't say anything else. Chris, how do you feel about starting pitchers in this? Yeah, you want multiple elite starting pitchers. That was a bad joke that I just made there. I stopped in the middle of a sentence. It didn't work. Yeah, how much more value do the pitchers have in this format? Well, I'm sorry for messing up your joke.

Yeah, I think you want multiple aces. the one thing that I will say, especially in this format this year, is there are just a boatload of really good spark, starting pitchers as relief pitchers. And, you know, last night's trade pushed another one up the board. Kenta Maeda, who had been going fairly late in a lot of leagues, should have more innings potential this year, now that he's with the twins, instead of the Dodgers. And so part of my strategy, my head-to-head points leagues, is to heavily target Sparps.

And in this one, I got Carlos Martinez and Julio O'Reas. They were actually, I think my number three and number four pitchers drafted. And I was able to get them close to the double-digit rounds, I believe. So there's still some value there.

And I think that could be a place where you could get a legitimate edge. Okay. We'll come back to that. Definitely got to talk about how you're going to propose. Relief pitcher. It's not, there's plenty of it.

And I think in this format, 12 teams, two relief pitchers per team and sparse in the equation, there will be closers on the waiver wire all year long. They might not be great, but they'll get you some saves. There won't be spars necessarily on the waiver wire. But one of my rules of thumb when you're drafting is just thinking, okay, what am I going to be able to get on waivers? And how many starting pitchers are you going to be able to pick up throughout the year on waivers. I mean, I actually think I think you'll be able to get plenty. But you won't be able to stream

two-star pitchers as much as you used to because the schedule has changed and the games are more spread out and you just won't have as many two-star pitchers. Plus, you know, with all the caution and some teams are going to have six-man rotations for some portions. They baby their younger pitchers like the Padres did last year. Feels like two-star pitchers streaming is not as good as it used to be. So that's another reason to invest in reliable starters that you're good with even with one start weeks. What makes you feel like you're going to be able to get plenty of pitchers you can count on

off the waiver wire? What makes me feel that way? Yeah. I don't know that you'll be able to get plenty of pitchers you can count on for a full season, but I think they'll be... But you're confident in your ability to play the matchup. Yeah. Yeah, play the matchups or pick up a hot hand and get it, get things.

three good weeks out of a pitch or something. Yeah, and I feel like at the beginning of the year, there'll be guys that emerged that we weren't really expecting. There will be a few, but there will be many, many more hitters, at least if this year plays out like the last couple have. For sure. And this is a shallow enough format where you can have, you can be lacking at hitter on draft day and make up for it.

I don't know that I'm going to go soon. Like, I would not have taken Lucas Gialito over Altube, Aaron Judge. But that's kind of nitpicking one pick, because like I said, there were like seven hitters that went after Gialito. But, okay, fine, if I could be a little bit more high end here, am I taking DeGrom over Aeronado? I don't know. I mean, how freaking good is Aeronado?

So consistent, you don't have to worry about steals. I, you know, like that's... I hear you. And my rankings right now show Aeronado over DeGrom. I'm sure they show all of those hitters ahead of Gialito. I'm really at a crossroads here where I'm not sure if I need to just kind of overhaul the top of my rankings to better reflect the way I actually want to approach it because it just feels so wrong to have those guys ahead of them. So here's what I would say is last season, the two number one and number two starting pitchers, Justin Verlander and Garrett Cole, were just so much better than everyone else at any position pitcher or hitter. After that, you know, you had Zach Rankine at number three, 615 points, Steven Strausberg, 610,

and then you had a couple of guys in the 600-590 range. There were, I believe, 12 hitters who scored at least 600 points last season. And so, you know, when we talk about like in this era where, or in this scoring format in particular, you'll see a lot of really high-end point totals from pitchers, but the hitters still generally outperform. form the pitchers, you know, at the high end. So, yeah. I mean, that's true. It's just what a, what the replacement level, that's probably not a good term to use because

of how it's become known in baseball analytics community. But, you know, the, what passing, what passing up a high end hitter leaves you with what versus what passing up a high end pitcher leaves you with. And I mean, I don't want to make this all me. focused, and I don't want to go out of turn here. But like, if we look at the way my hitting turned out, my starting lineup, having invested four of my first six picks and pitchers, I mean, I think it really speaks to what I'm talking about. Okay, let's go for it then. What do you got? Okay. So my catcher is Mitch Garver. Could be number one this year, was one number one on a

per game basis last year. My first baseman was, is Yuleiguriel. Probably the riskiest choice in my lineup, but I mean, he was a must-star player last year. Jonathan V.R. Same thing. Jeff McNeil. Everybody wants him as a starting second baseman. I happen to have him at third because that's where he fits best, but it gives me some flexibility if I need it. Marcus Simeon, my shortstop. I mean, he almost won MVP. Cody Bellinger, he did win MVP. Michael Brantley, obviously a high-end outfielder, especially in this format, David Dahl. Everybody's favorite breakthrough candidate every year, and he had a good, he performed well when he was healthy last year. and Jordan Alvarez, who was a, performed up there with the top five hitters in baseball from the time he got called up last year.

So, like, that's, and then my bench, I have J.D. Davis, who is my favorite breakout candidate, and I think the safest of all my breakout candidates. And Gio Orshella, who I happen to like a lot as well. So, you know, even if Gurriel doesn't pan out, I move Bellinger to first base, I get J.D. Davis in my lineup in the outfield. let's say Jonathan V.R. doesn't work out. I move Jeff McNeil to second base. I get Gio Orchella in there at third base. I have a hard time seeing how this is going to fall apart on me. I have a very easy time seeing how your entire team falls apart. You have a team and your pitchers are the same way.

You have a team that basically just did it in 2019. Look at your pitchers. You have Bieber, Gialito, Aaron Nola, and Brandon Woodruff. Those are the four guys you built your team around. none of them except for Nola have more than one good year. Now it's part of that as youth. I get that. But we see variability and performance too often.

Marcus Simeon, you made the case for Marcus Simeon. You didn't make the case against Marcus Simeon, which is the rest of his career. You know, you've got a bunch of guys that, like Mitch Gar, you have a bunch of guys. Chris and I just went through an exercise for the top 200 players where we literally made a case for every single one and a case against every single one.

You can obviously make a case against every single player that every person drafted. Your team is great in 2019, but for every other year before that, your team was, your team is last place, basically. Like, okay, okay. So there's a lot of risk in your lineup.

I believe in them, and the ones I have the biggest doubts about Gurriel and VR, I gave myself a backup plan. So I'm like, okay, yeah. I mean, you don't like these players pick different ones, but I do like them,

and I feel good about it. You know what, though, Scott? To me, it's more like going with this, strategy, I don't care so much that your hitters are risky. I think we just proved with Heath's team that from last year you can get by. I sort of wish that your pitchers were a little more proven in Bieber, Gialito, Nola, and Woodruff, just that group of four with your first six picks. I feel like, obviously there's a scenario where they're amazing. They're all amazing.

But it doesn't usually work with that. It probably won't all be amazing. Right. As Chris just talked about earlier, that's why, like before I was thinking, okay, maybe I could just get three in the past. I thought maybe I could just get two. But the thing is, if you do that, you have to really bank on them all hitting. You can't do that. You have to overdo it. At least that's how I've... Right, right.

That's how I've come to approach it. So, yeah, I'm not counting on all four of them being great. If they are, yeah, I have a huge advantage, but they probably won't be. If they are, then... And I have... I actually have five. My fifth guy is Sunny Gray. Oh, I'm sorry.

I should have gone one more. Right. Another guy who... 2018 was so great. Okay. Look, if you get three of those five pitchers pan out, then you'll be able to make up for your hit. Even if your hitting's not that good, you'll be able to make up for it. So I understand the philosophy there.

I just wanted to say it's not such a slam dunk, I guess. But all right, let's move on to a different topic. I think we've... I can't guarantee I will win this league. I agree with that, yes. But I do think I'm in a good position to do so. Real quick, your thoughts on Garrett Cole going number two overall behind Mike Trout? I wouldn't do it, even as somebody who is trying to make this considerable investment in starting pitching.

I think the top five hitters are so far ahead of everybody else. With the exception of Ronald Acuna, who doesn't stand out in plate discipline the way the other four do, and so he's obviously great, but in this format, I'm not sure he's as much of a standout, and that's why I do have Garrett Cole going ahead of him. But the other five, including the other four, including Buckey Betts, would be my top four players off the board. Marcus Simeon actually scored as many fantasy points as Ronald Acuna last year. Yeah.

Amazing. Yeah. So. I think Bregman was better than Acuna in this format. Several other players who we don't normally consider in that five. Bregman was the best hitter. Gregman was the best hitter in this format. and Anthony Rendon was third.

Now, Christian Eilch and Mike Trout missed most of the season. Yeah. So next question, this is a points league. By the way, if you're new to points league's plate discipline is very important because you get a point for a walk and you lose half a point for a strikeout. So that's crucial. Doubles and triples help. They don't count in roto in most formats unless you're playing total bases.

They count for two and three points respectively here. Steals are worth two points. So those do count. but you don't need them. So with that said, any question at all about Mike Trout being number one overall?

I mean, really the only reason why he wouldn't be is 114, 140, 134 games in his last three seasons. Yeah,

if you think Yelich is just better, then I could see taking him instead, but I think that's a leap I'm not willing to make, especially with him coming off pretty significant knee injury himself. Yeah,

I think the biggest gap between the two of them is probably plate discipline. I think, you know, Yelich will steal more bases than Mike Trout will, but Yelich is going to strike out about as much as Trout does. Both of them are pretty good in strikeout rate, but, you know, closer to average.

But Mike Trout, you know, has a very good chance to lead the majors and walks in any given year. Whereas Yelich isn't quite at that point, although it's possible that pitchers see him now as a 50 homer guy, which is what he was on pace for, and start to treat him with even more fear and respect. Okay. Next question.

Was George Springer a reach at number 17 overall? Yes. I mean, just going by ADP, yes. He performed up to that level last year. So if you're just especially high on George Springer and don't want him to go to somebody else, then maybe that's what you do. But I would not take him that early.

And talk about a guy who never plays a full season. doesn't really get dinged for that as much as a, you know, a lot of guys and part of that is like, in 2018 and 2017, he missed 22 games. He played a full season in 2016. Last year, he missed 40 games, 2015. He missed 60. So, you know, he's kind of been just injury prone enough that there, you can probably ding him just a little bit. Yeah, Springer 17 overall was the first pick that really jumped out to me like, hmm, that was interesting. He's 30. And he's coming off a great year. He batted 292 with 39 home runs in 122 games.

I like him a lot in this format. This is another point I'll make. If you get a lead-off hitter, because plate appearances are very important in points leagues. This is why guys who sit for lefties in a weekly points league, they're going to hurt you. They're just not going to score enough points. You need played appearances.

George Springer bats leadoff for a team that could lead baseball and run scored. And his, I know I always try to do it. 155 games, but I'll do 162 because baseball reference does that, and I didn't feel like doing the math by myself. Over the last four seasons, per 162 games, he's been on pace for 123

runs scored, and 96 RBIs, which is incredible for a lead-off hitter. So, Springer's a great points league option when he's healthy, even if he's not as good as he was last year, but I still think that's more of like a third round pick. 17 overall was early. That point is something to

keep in mind with Mookie Betts. Dodgers have a great lineup, but the Red Sox pretty much every year lead baseball and plate appearances. Part of that is they have a great lineup. They also always have really, really high on base percentages as a team. And Muky Betts was their lead off hitter. So you should expect, with the Dodgers,

the drop-off won't be as significant, but it could probably be 30 fewer plate appearances than he would have gotten with Boston, which isn't nothing. Not nothing. You're right. Was Fernando, Tatis a steal at 51st overall, round five for Tatis? It's a value I feel comfortable with.

You know, I have him on my bus list based on where he usually goes in the second round. And he only goes in the second round in a roto league. That's obviously what the ADP values we refer to are usually referring to. Because of the contribution he's going to make in steals. Anybody who has a chance of making a significant contribution in that category gets moved up by like two rounds or more if there's uh if that that's able to happen if they're not already a first round or just as is so uh i i i don't know that i'd call it a steal because i think similarly capable hitters were going in the same range uh let's see jordan alvarez was who i took a couple

picks later and in this format he was better than dutis last year glaver torres who's considered a high in second baseman. This is a great round. So yeah, it was fine, but I don't know that I call it a steel. You're right. And that's just a product of all these pitchers getting pushed up so far.

But Glaber Torres and Nelson Cruz, Chris Bryant, Josh Donaldson going in that round. Donaldson, I don't know if that might be a little earlier. Yeah, I don't like that one. Yeah. But look, if things go right for him, he could certainly live up to that.

So I was thinking, yeah, like a lead off hitter on an elite lineup. which would be Springer, Bets, DJ LaMayhew, who's going to lead off for the twins? Max Kepler, I think, did a lot last year. He doesn't make sense as a leadoff hitter, but just going by their behavior last year.

He's a pretty high-on-based guy, isn't he? No, he's a low-strikeout guy, but not a high-walk guy. I think he had like a 3.30-ish-on-based percentage last year. Yeah, well, right now, I mean, roster resource has, Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Donaldson, Rosario, Garver, with Araya's, Sino, or Arise, Sinoe, and Buxden at the end. I'm just saying a guy who's going to get up a ton, maybe Kepler doesn't lead off against lefties, I don't know. It's just something to keep an eye on in points. Yeah, Garver seemed like he did a lot.

Okay, so maybe that team doesn't matter, but it's just, it's a sneaky way to gain more points. Okay. 336 on base percentage for Kepler last year. Yeah, and that's something to keep, like, the twins haven't obviously great lineup, but, you know, know, their plate appearances could be lower because they don't necessarily have a ton of those high-on-based guys. And that's what turns your lineup over more than even scoring runs is not making outs. Outts are a finite resource. They are the resource when you're batting. And so the fewer outs you make, the more opportunities you get, even if you, you know, the twins are going to score a ton of runs.

But their lineup won't turn over quite as often. All right. Can you win in a points league with this team? This is Mark Barry, his team. He went very hitter heavy. Ronald O'Cuna, let's see what pick he had. I think he had the sixth pick. Scott, help me out. Mark Barry? Eighth pick?

He had the... Six pick. Sixth pick. Yeah. Ronald O'Cuna, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altovae. Chris Paddock, U. Darvis,

Shohay Otani, Eloy Jimenez, Mike Soroka, Carlos Santana, who's a very, very good points league first baseman. Kyle Schwabber, McCullers,

Jorge Polanco, Dustin May, Salvador Perez, Justin Turner, blah, blah, blah. His pitching staff, he's anchored by Acuna Ramirez Altuveh. His pitching staff is Paddock, Darvish, Soroka, McCullors, Dustin May, Michael Kopeck, some high upside guys. Chris Archer. Otani, you missed Otani. Oh, Otani, yeah. If I was ranking them in terms of how good I, well, how I ranked them this year, I would go, Chris Paddock

U-Darvis, Joe, sorry, Chris Paddock, U-Darvish, Mike Soroka, and Shohei Otani, and then Lance McCullors, who obviously has a lot of upside to his fifth guy. I mean, he didn't shortchance the pitching staff there. Those are, four of those guys are in the class of pitchers that I feel like definitely have high-end potential, and McCullors is in the smaller group of pitchers

that I think at least shows the potential to be a high-end pitcher. So are you comfortable with this? It's interesting. You guys drafted back to back. You took four pitchers with your first six picks. He took three hitters with his first three picks. Yeah.

But then we're the next three pitchers? Yes. So let's talk about Otani and explain how he's going to work. Yeah. I've been avoiding him. This is his valuable format, right? Anything weekly. Yeah.

Yeah, I don't know that points versus Roto makes a big difference, but weekly versus daily makes a huge difference, yeah. Well, he could be an elite rates guy, but you're never going to get a two-start week from him, basically. Yeah, not very often, yeah. That's why I kind of skipped over him when I was doing this exercise, so I apologize for that. But I also don't know, like Joe Madden has at least made some noises

about changing the way he approaches Otani from the way the previous regime did. Things like letting him hit on the days he's pitching. I don't know if that was just him talking and maybe when the minds get together, he'll be one over to a different way of thinking. I honestly don't know what's going to change for Otani. I don't know when he's coming back as a pitcher.

I don't know how much he's going to hit at the start. of the season when he's in the final stages of rehabbing this Tommy John surgery. There's just a little... I feel like there are even more questions surrounding him this year than last year. He is going to pitch some this year, and I think that's where he's going to have the most impact in fantasy. But when and how much you'll be able to rely on him, I'd be afraid to take him as like my number four guy, and you're only going to get him as your number four guy if you're

heavily investing in pitching. But each week, if you have Otani, you have to decide I'm using him as a hitter or a pitcher, right? Yes. Okay. This is not, yeah, I mean, for him to be a sixth round pick, I think that's just too early. There's almost no chance he's going to be an everyday hitter, right?

If he's pitching at all, he's not going to be an everyday hitter. He wasn't last year even when he wasn't pitching at all. And he's utility only. Right. Yikes. Okay. So those are some of my word. General questions, let's get into the draft. We'll go round by round here and just give

some quick thoughts. Mike Trout, Garrett Cole, Christian Yelich, Mooky Betts, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Lecuna. Five outfielders. It's so funny that it's a three outfielder league. You'll have plenty of outfielers on waivers, but we've been saying this for a few years. Outfield tends to be sort of a top-heavy position. You still have some of the best, best hitters. So I don't think I don't think you have to worry about position scarcity when it comes to those elites, right? Plus Ballinger's first base eligible, which is nice. I do worry in this format about filling my outfield up too soon because so many of my late round targets, better hitters or outfielders, so many are corner infields too.

So I don't know. I guess it's deep everywhere and maybe I shouldn't worry about it so much. I can certainly fill up third base too soon and then not be able to draft one I want. And third base, you could go into it on draft day saying, well, it's so deep, I'll wait. But if you, it won't be deep on the waiver wire because all the good ones are pretty much going to get drafted, I think, right? Because they're going to be utility and backups. They're just too good. Without accounting for the unknown, I would be inclined to say yes to that.

But stuff is going to happen. Players we don't even see coming are going to appear at that position, I'm sure, just like any other. Sure. Okay, so five outfielders and Garrett Cole to start with one of those outfielers being Beliger, who's first base out. Seventh pick. Lindor, Verlander, Bregman, DeGrom, Scherzer, Aeronado. Cool. Yeah, I mean, de Grom over Scherzer isn't how I do it.

I don't think. But I haven't actually been in a position where I had to make that decision. And when push comes to shove, I might be a little scared of Scherzer's health status to end last season. Is there a big difference in this point format between Francisco Lindor and Trevor Stor? because these two guys are basically back-to-back and a lot of roto picks are very, a roto drafts very close. Whereas in this draft, Lindor went seventh overall, and Story fell to the third round. He went 28th overall.

And you look at their fantasy production, their fantasy points. Very, very similar. In fact, Story was 14 points better than Lindor, and the plate appearances were pretty similar, almost identical. So is that a mistake, Scott? Should Lindor and Story be closer together, or is there a bigger gap in this four? format. No, they should be closer together. I mean, like you said with pointing out the points discrepancy last year, in this format, it's very easy to tell exactly how much any player meant to

anyone. You know, all the contributions just get put into one point total, and that makes for some easier analysis. But, yeah, they were basically the same last year, and neither did anything that strikes me is greatly out of character. I do rankling. Indoor ahead of story because I always tend to prefer the lower strikeout guys. I feel like there are fewer things that can go wrong for them. And I'm not totally sure we've seen Lindor's ceiling as far as batting average goes. But they're basically the same.

Okay. So again, the last six picks of the first round were Lindor, Verlander, Bregman, de Grom, Scherzer, Aeronado. Go to round two. We got Walker Bueller to Lance, who took Aeronado. So he starts Aeronado Bueller. Freddie Freeman to Chris. Freeman and Scherzer for Chris to start things off.

Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, George Springer, Mike Clevenger. Chris, we have Bueller, Soto, Rendon, Springer, Clevenger. By the way, you don't have to comment on every six picks if you want to just keep going. But if anything jumps out, go for it. No, I mean, I think it's interesting that Bueller seems to get grouped in with the Big Four a little more often. He's number five in ADP.

In this one, he goes, and then there's four picks between him and the next guy who was Mike Clevenger. So, you know, I think that's interesting. He is probably my favorite pitcher after the top four. I just, I think the depth of his arsenal gives him room to grow even beyond what he was last season. And what he was last season, especially from May 1st on, was pretty, Brady incredible. So I think it's interesting. I don't know if I like it or dislike it, but...

I've noticed it too, and I haven't really under... I've wondered why that was, why Buehler seems to be kind of the trendy number five SP pick. Because he's not for me. I have Clevenger and Bieber ahead. I may have... I may even have sale ahead. So I find it...

I find the Bueller versus Clevenger, I don't think you're alone. Clevenger is kind of the guy that people either have him fifth or six or they have him like 10th or 11th. And so there does seem to be some disparity there. And he's coming off 126 inning season. He, I think,

has only thrown more than 160 innings once. They're 200, two years ago. Yeah, but I think that was kind of an outlier for him. And, you know, Bueller,

I think from June 1st on basically he had identical numbers to Clevenger. full season last year. And so it could be a situation where Clevenger is getting credit for not finishing his season, like not completing his whole season. And Bueller is kind of dinged for circumstances that were somewhat beyond his control with the Dodgers limiting his exposure in spring training and then kind of working him in a little slower in May. He got off to a slow start for what I think are pretty good reasons.

So he is probably the guy I could see, I could most easily see taking that big leap forward. Well, I do think the pitchers in round two are so are fascinating. Bueller. And then again, Freeman, Soto, Rendon, Springer. Then we get Clevenger, 18th overall. Then Jose Ramirez, a little Cleveland Indians run here. Then Shane Bieber, Chris Sayle, Stephen Strasbourg, Jack Flaherty, and Patrick Corbyn. So it's funny to see some of these names in the second round

in Mike Clevenger 18th, Beaver 20th. I get it. They were awesome last year, but is that legit? I mean, should these guys really be second round picks? I made the Beaver pick, so. You made the Beaver pick and you made the Geolito pick, I know. And again, great hitters. being passed up here.

I mean, the Geolito pick was more of a stretch than the Beaver pick or these other starting pitcher picks here in round two. These guys have been second or third rounders, I think, at every single draft across every format I've done. And so, yeah, there are cases you could make against any of them. Like I said, there is for any player you could possibly draft. and maybe that might compel you to pass them up at this price tag and just go to the next rung of the pitcher ladder.

But for me, the reason why I took Bieber is because I know I want several. I don't want to start at such a low rung of the pitching ladder that it then runs out before I filled all the pitcher spots I want to fill. Okay, so the pitchers in round two are Bueller, Clevenger, Bieber, Seale, Strasbourg, Flaherty, Corbyn. The hitters are Freeman, Soto, Rendon, Springer, and Jose Ramirez. To round three, Granky, J.D. Martinez, Trey Turner, Trevor Story, Jose Al-Tube. That's your first six of round three.

Granky, Jose, or J.D. Martinez. Turner, Story, Gialito, Al-Tuve. Quick thought, Scott? I made the pick that stands out is the one I made Gialito. The hitters seem like great values in here in the third round, and I could totally understand why the people went for them. And this was the point in the draft where I was

declaring I'm doing something different this time. It feels wrong. It hurts. The hitters still available are guys that in another time I might have considered first round picks. And here I am taking Lucas Gialito, who as good as he was, last year. It's not like he was in

Sy Young contention. Yeah, it was a statement pick for me and people want to trash it. I can totally understand, but there was a reason behind it. And if I had to do it over again, I would.

By the way, Trevor, or rather, Trey Turner, people might be wondering about his value in this format. He's still pretty damn good in this format. I think last year I was taking him in the second round this year, third round, because the pitchers are going earlier, but Tray Turner was tied for second in fantasy points per game at shortstop behind Alex Bregman. He was tied with Tatease, Bogartz, and Marcus Simeon.

So he's still plenty good in this format. Yeah, I mean, the hitters are just great values here. So after Altuvago's, Aaron Judge, Bogartz, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Charlie Blackman, and Anthony Rizzo. I mean, is there anyone there that you don't like? Judge Bogart's Harper, Devers Blackman, Rizzo. I'm a little wary of Xander Bogart's being picked among the second group of elite hitters just because 2019 was a new level for. I mean, you can say the same thing about Raphael Devers.

But I don't know if the underlying data quite backs up what Zander Bogartz did last season. It doesn't, as far as I can tell. He was an increase of 10 home runs from his previous high of 23. He went to 33, and that was with basically the exact same batted ball profile. Yeah.

So I hear you. I think ranking him at this spot at shortstop makes sense because you have to put somebody there, but I would rather pass him over for the other potential high-end options at the position. Can I just tell you who my favorite shortstop is right now as I'm still early in my... Somebody you pick, Chris.

Carlos Correa. He is being knocked down way too far. You took him 83rd overall. Yeah, I love the value. I've drafted a ton of Carlos Correa. There's part of, partially there is the concern

about the Astros and the banging scheme and whether their numbers are legitimate, but I, I'm not, we've talked about that enough. I'm not really worried about. it. The concerns with him are obviously the health. He has had real trouble staying healthy. And a lot of it has been recurring midsection injuries. I think last year was a rib injury,

but it's back in the past. Back, yeah. You know, back injuries, he's only 25, but back injuries can have a can have the effect of prematurely aging you. Now that being said, especially in this format where batting average and stolen base don't matter quite as much. He has played at an elite level in two of the last three seasons. He's only played 75, 110, and 109 games in that stretch. But in 2019 and 2017, he absolutely played at the kind of level that you're looking for from really a second or third round pick. And so for me, it's a bet at 83rd overall that he can stay healthy for 145 games. And really, then there's not that much difference between him and Xander Bogart.

Carlos Carrows probably better. Yeah, I think it's a good gamble to take. And let's do two more rounds here, guys, then we'll read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at Cbsi.com. Round four, Blake Snell, Clayton, Kershaw, Luis Castillo, Luis Severino, Pete Alonzo, Charlie Morton. So that is the first six picks of round four. Four of them are pitchers.

Snell, Kershaw, Castillo, Severino, five of them, sorry. Severino and Morton. and one hitter, Pete Alonzo there. And then look at all the pitchers in this round. Holy cow. So after Snell, Kershaw, Castillo, Severino, Alonzo Morton, you have Paddock, Nola, Cattel Marte, Cindergarde, Stanton, and Javier Baez. Anything jump out about round four, Scott?

Well, I think if I was going to break the pitcher run for a hitter, Pete Alonzo would not be the one I'd do it for, especially in this format where you don't benefit as much by him having an outlandish home run total if he were to repeat that, which there's some skepticism whether he will or if he's more of like a 43 homer guy than a 53 homer guy. But he's not going to carry you in a category. It's not that discussion in this format. It's just what the overall production adds up to. And while Alonzo's was certainly good last year, any regression may drop him to more of a level like we see from a Tommy fan or something like that.

So I would have gone for Cotell Marte over him. I probably would have gone for even Jordan Alvarez over him who went in the following round, round five. The only thing with Alvarez is he's utility only. And in this format, it's even harder to fill a utility only player. about those pitchers in that run do you know who the number seven pitcher in this format was last year? Oh, it's the top of my head now.

Well, let's see. It was somebody in this. On this group. It was Kurt Morton. Clayton Kirshall was the number 10 pitcher. Oh, okay. This format. I think they're both really good values.

Obviously, I think Clayton Kirshall is a great value because I took him at the beginning of the fourth round. But Charlie Morton, going where he's going in every single draft, there's one knock against him at this point, because he's stayed healthy for three years in a row. The knock against him is he's 35, and that's a pretty big knock,

but I'm just not sure, given how good he's been the last two seasons, given the fact that he's made 28 starts in three straight seasons, I think one of them, some of the starts came in the minors, but those still count as far as being able to do it. He is, I think, just being flat out underval

I don't know, man. Look at the innings, though. 146 and 2 thirds, 167, 194 and 2 thirds. It doesn't really feel like a guy who's been able to stay healthy. Because 2018, he kind of faded down the stretch and, you know, 167 innings. Last year with the 194 and 2 thirds, that was by far a career high. So he's probably, you know, he's awesome. That's obvious. But I just don't want to make, I don't want to make it seem like,

he's been healthy three straight years because he really hasn't been. But he had, no, but that's the thing is he has. Like, he made 28 starts in 2017. He averaged nearly six starts per inning in the majors. He made 30 starts in 2018. It's so hard to know whether it was he faded down the stretch or he just had a bad month. But what he did in 2019 was he came back and he was just flat out awesome, gave you an ACE workload, gave you ACE production. So I think the faded down the stretch in 2018, 2018 thing is, let's say it's unproven. Let's say I think it's hypothetical. Okay, well, do you think, I thought you were done.

He was awesome in the postseason last year too. Yeah, no, I like him. I like Charlie, Gordon. We all do. But would you have taken him? Who that went ahead of, Morton, would you have taken Morton ahead of? We had Snell, Kirschaw, Castillo, and Severino in this round. I don't see a case for Luis Castillo over Charlie Morton.

I'm sorry, whatever. If that makes me the big villain of the fantasy baseball community, I know we all love Luis Castillo. He's incredibly fun to watch. It's incredibly fun to watch a guy who looks like Jack Skellington from the nightmare before Christmas, throw 98-mile-hour fastballs, and that change-up is incredible.

But he's not a better pitcher than Charlie Morton by any measure. There is no measure that we have that says Luis Castillo is better than Charlie Morton. All right, fair. If the biggest risk factor for Morton is age, what is it for Castillo? I guess the fact that his walk rate is kind of high. Walk rate and just he hasn't been as good. Like, Charlie Morton's just been an objectively better pitcher.

And so Luis Castillo needs to get better to justify the cost. I think he's 14th in an ADP right now, starting pitcher. He's not that guy yet. It's hard to argue with that. So. I think it's actually. finished last year. I think it was 15th in Roto leagues. You know,

don't take it. Take me seriously, seriously, not literally. I mean, to be kind of sorting out who I prefer among this class of pitchers is just, it feels like such a nitpicky exercise.

Is there one that you particularly like and one that you particularly don't like? I would, risk is usually what steers me away from this guy. in this range of pitchers as opposed to seeing any, the potential to squeeze any more upside out of it or, um,

or, you know, degrees of good. So I think the one I would, I like the least considering is, I mean, Severino, we really,

no idea how that's going to go after a season that was lost to injury and he came back, he wasn't throwing his hard. Maybe that's just because he didn't get a chance to build up as much. I don't know. But normally we would take that as a bad sign. So he definitely strikes me as the riskiest. That being said, he could win the Cy Young Award this year,

and it wouldn't fall out of my chair. I think that Kershaw, with that freaking team, I don't see how he doesn't win at least 16 games. I know it's not a category that people like to chase, but Kershaw was just so consistent. He barely ever gave up more than 300 runs last year. his skills are not what they used to be, but he's going to go quality start

and win a ton of games. So if he stays healthy. Well, that's big F with him, yeah. It is. He made 28 starts and one appearance. In his 28 starts, he went at least six innings 26 times. Yeah, amazing. Because he doesn't walk anyone, and he goes deep into games.

Okay, round five, our last round here, Marte Trevor Bauer Tatis Glasnow Alvarez Darvish Glaber Torres

Berrios Paxton Nelson Cruz Chris Bryant and Josh Donaldson Starling Marte which is a very interesting pick in a points league

not his better format Trevor Bauer Fernando Tatease Glasnow Alvarez Darvish Torres Berrios Paxton Cruz Bryant Donaldson.

That's round five. So this is where I start to like the value of the hitters more than the pitchers. Maybe not Glass Now. I would have given serious thought to taking him if he was still there at my pick in round five if he went just ahead of me. But even so, with the pitching I already had, I probably would have passed him up for Jordan Alvarez, who performed like a first rounder last year. And maybe it was a little too good to be true, but I don't think it was a lot too good to be true unless you honestly buy the narrative that the only reason any aster's hitter was good is because they were banging on trash cans three years ago.

And it makes sense in Alvarez's case. It's worth noting. Tyler Glasnow was probably a little too good to be true last year too. And we only saw. I mean, three innings. He was inning for inning. He was the best pitcher in baseball. So yeah, for sure.

Yeah. Alvarez was great on the road too, right? and I think it was not a home road thing for him. I could look it up. I'm looking it up right now. He had a $699 slugging percentage at home. He had a 605 slugging percentage on the road. However, he did have a huge batting average difference as well.

3.49 at home, 272 on the road, but really, really good everywhere. Cool. Okay. I think I'm going to have a lot of shares in him because I guess it's just maybe it's the fact he hasn't put together a full season. Maybe it's the Astro scandal, the DH-only eligibility. But for whatever reason, he seems to be going much later than I would expect him to go, given just how overpowering he was last year. And I mean, you could say the same for Cruz.

Maybe it really is just a DH-only thing. Cruz tends to go two or three rounds later even. But, of course, there's a huge age difference there that would lead me to prefer Alvarez. Cruz went in the same round. He went about five or six picks after Alvarez. And I kind of broke this down a few weeks ago, I think. Eventually, Alvarez will gain outfield eligibility. It'll probably be maybe around the All-Star break,

because I looked at their Interleague schedule. If there's no injury that thrusts him into the outfield, I think by the All-Star break, I would expect him to have five appearances in the outfield and gain eligibility. I can't sign off to that, but, you know, I would say for the second half of your season, if you have Alvarez, you're going to have an outfielder.

So let's finish the show with some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This is from Sam. Hey, Barney, Marshall, and Ted. How am I met your mother? Aren't they also two of them are department stores? Yeah. Huh. How about that?

Interesting. Yeah. Maybe that's why they named the characters what they named them. Maybe. I mean, doesn't one of them fall in love with Macy? So I have the seventh pick of my... I have not. No idea if that's true.

No, it's not. I moved on quickly from that joke. He knew it was a stinker. I have the seventh pick. You see, when you move on quickly, though, I think it helps the joke, you know? I have the seventh pick in my head-to-head categories league. I'm leaning Bregman over Lindor, but I have not seen one mock or rating in which Bregman was higher than Lindor in a head-to-head categories league.

What's the case for Lindor? Stolen bases. Bingo. Yeah. Much it. Yeah. Who would you guys take? I'm sorry for the teeth sucking noise there, by the way.

That was unfortunate. Apologize to everybody. Who would you take, Lindor or Bregman? I have Lendor ranked higher, but I've had some serious conversations with myself about whether or not I'm overvaluing Lendor. I would love to hear the conversations between yourself. Oh, you're not right now. You really wouldn't.

From David, grade the trade. It's a points league with 10 keepers. Give up Max Scherzer. Get Gialito and Hira. I'm going to need to know how long you can keep those guys. Because if it's not more than two or three years, I don't think I like it. I think I like it either way. I'll give it a B just straight up.

And if it is more of a long-term situation, I'll give it an A, probably. Yeah, I'll go C. From Joe, Gray the Trade, 16-te-the-trade. 16 team auction keeper league. Give up an $8 Woodruff for a $29 Corbin, who I packaged with a $31 Bryant for a $26 Beaver. So give up an $8 Woodruff and a $31 Chris Bryant for a $26.

Shane Bieber. I love the Woodruff for Corbyn part. I think I'd rather just keep Corbyn and Bryant. Yeah. Especially in a 16-team league where, like, I don't, I'm not convinced, Scott, I know you do have Shane Bieber in a separate tier from Patrick Corbyn, but I would rank them pretty similarly. And in a 16-team league, giving up to no doubt about it must-start guys, borderline elite guys, for one borderline elite guy, just doesn't make much sense to me. And I've already decided I'm going to have to rework those pitcher tiers. It's the same struggle I've been having with my rankings to better reflect how I'm actually behaving in drafts.

I may just have to make bigger tiers at starting pitcher and skip one that I have at every other position to really drive home the point that there's a steep drop-off happening. I don't know. I'm going to have to look at it again when 2.0 comes around. Bieber was better than Corbyn, but I don't know if the game. gap is reflected in their ADP, because I feel like there's like a 25 spot difference in their ADP. And that

probably doesn't, especially because Corbin was dramatically better in 2018. Yeah, I mean, Bieber had more strikeouts and more innings, but pretty much everything else was the same. Whip was a little lower for Bieber too. Beaver had so many

eight-inning starts. Like, the guy's just a, he just gobbles up innings. He's so efficient. And that That's really where he stands out from most of these other pitchers who put up similar ratios. Dave and Brooklyn, long-time listener, first-time emailer. Having a very hard time deciding who to keep in my 12-te-to-head points league, keep four. I have Acuna and Soto so far, so now I'll pick two of these. It's a points league.

Ray Almuto, LaMayhew, Moncada, McNeil, Correa, and Glass Now. I'm picking LaMayu in glass now I think I'm going Correa in glass now Goodbye everybody We'll talk you on Friday How's that sound

I think we should just end it After goodbye everybody Goodbye everybody That's Goodbye everybody Goodbye everybody