Fantasy Baseball Today - Predicting the First Two Rounds of 2025 Drafts! (10/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: October 15, 2024

The first three picks seem like a slam dunk in 2025 drafts (2:20)! ... Honestly, the top six picks seem pretty chalk for next season (11:00). ... How early should Ronald Acuña go (19:13)? ... Who were the final three picks of the first round (28:37)? ... The second round begins with Francisco Lindor (35:00). ... How far does Julio Rodriguez fall (40:47)? Zack Wheeler or Paul Skenes (49:00)? ... Should Jarren Duran and Jackson Chourio go in the second round (54:50)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, and welcome into Fancy Baseball today on Tuesday, October 15th. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.

We've spent a lot of time looking back. on the 2024 season. So today we are going to turn our attention forward and drafting the first two rounds for 2025. Scott actually had an article on this very topic that came out in mid-September. We didn't get to it because the season was still going on at the time, but make sure to go check that out.

But let's- And I'm gonna probably as we draft the first two rounds here. It may conflict with my article. I've had some changes of thoughts since then. Now that I'm making my way through the rankings position, by position full rankings, becoming more familiar with the scarcity, becoming more familiar with the drop-offs at each position,

and becoming more familiar with every player because I'm doing a deep dive on every single one I'm ranking, basically. So, yeah, it, that mid-September article is old news now, is what I'm trying to say. Yeah, I did one in July, which is like, I'm looking at it now and it's even more old news.

That's ancient history. I had some crazy players in the first two rounds. How much change in the second half? I guess we're going to find out. Always a fun show. We're going to alternate picks. Again, try and get through the first two rounds. But Scott, we will start with you. Then we'll move on to Chris. I'll have the third pick. And again, we'll keep alternating throughout. And so Scott, you are on the clock.

Oh, these first three picks are going to be bam, bam, bam. Very easy top three this year. And I don't think there's much disputing the order unless it's the school. I have a different number one depending on if it's points of Roto. I assume we're doing Roto here. Yeah, I think we can make comments if there's something that drastically changes in a points league,

but mostly for like Roto are categories. Yeah, but one, two, three, I think are pretty straightforward. So Shohay Otani is going to be the number one pick in Roto for me. And that's not even really considering the whatever pitching contributions he might make next year. I know if you play in the league with daily lineups, you get those too, because you can move in between DH and pitching,

you know, move into pitching on the days he's pitching and still get the majority of his DH stats. So that's great. But thinking in terms of a typical weekly league, just slotting him at DH and keeping him there, it's nice to know that probably at some point next year, my presumed from the beginning next year,

You'll be able to use them on Daisy's pitching if he has a really good matchup in her. It was on a nice run or whatever. But first ever 50-50 season, we've talked about it a lot. Arguably the best fantasy season in history, nobody, I think, is going to let the DH-only status, at least on the hitting side, diswayed them from taking Shohei Otani this year. Yeah. And I think it's worth, like, Roto is his. better format. He outscored Aaron Judge

by 60 points in points leagues too. Yeah. He wasn't actually quite as good as Ronald Acuna last year. Ronald Acuna had 815 points. Shohei Otani only got to 695 in standard CBS

scoring. 7.95. I mean, Okunia's strikeout rate last year was shockingly low. Looking back on it now, given the rate Acuna was striking out this year before he got hurt. It's even more shocking how low that strikeout rate was for Acuna.

So that that played a part in that. Just for some context, because I don't know if everybody's like fully aware of what a good rhodo score or point scores for the full season. I'm just going back through like the we have data through 2000 in leagues and like your number one hits. typically scores 600 to 670. Again, Otani was at 795 in his worst format last year. Yeah, so it's probably worth stating then even though we're doing a roto draft,

a 5x scoring draft here, I have mentioned that I do have judge ahead of Otani for points leagues. And the reason why is because I don't expect Otani to go 50-50 again. Nobody ever done it before. I actually think that getting back to pitching could have a detrimental effect on his hitting. Detramental sounds like a strong word, but I don't think it's going to ruin him, obviously. But I think it could have a negative impact on his hitting. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the best year he ever had as a hitter was when he didn't have the responsibility of, pitching every fifth or sixth day.

So, yeah, I expect him to take a step back. Judge, meanwhile, okay, his season was historic too, but this is the second time in three years he had a historic season. And we said after the 62 Homer season, oh, well, he'll never do that again. He'll never do that again. He had 58 this year, and he actually had a higher batting average than that 20, 22 season, and more combined runs in a season. RBI. So if judge stays healthy, this is just kind of the baseline for him.

And points leagues, he actually had a better score in 2024 than 2022. And to add to that, here's his last three seasons ex-wobe, because I know 2023 was a disappointment amid some injuries, 463 in 2022, 461 in 2023, 484 in 2024. So like, yeah, maybe there's a little bit of regression coming. Like he probably won't be this good. But like he is the only player that if he stays healthy, I think you just expect 55 home runs from him. All right, Chris, second overall pick. You're taking Aaron, Judge.

Anything else who want to add there? I mean, he's 33 or will be 33 next year and has a history of injuries. So like at some point, it will end, right? Like no player stays at their best level forever. especially when they're in their 30s, but there's no obvious reason to think next year will be the year it happens. So I,

there is a big enough gap between him and the field, and I think the field is Bobby Witt in Roto leagues. Neither league. Well, yeah. That I don't overthink it. Like he had, Bobby Witt had an awesome season. Aaron Judge had

35 more RBI, 26 more home runs. Like, yeah, it's, the steals are nice, but Bobby Witt's not such a stolen base standout anymore that you can overlook the, the gigantic power and run production gap.

The only thing I'll add on Judge is, you mentioned he has dealt with some injuries in the past, 148 plus games played three of the past four years and you know the one time that he did miss some games in twenty twenty three it was a toe injury that he suffered you know in dodger stadium where he hit it on the wall it seemed kind of fluky at the time and i i said that um you know should have stuck by it and maybe drafted some more of judges this past season uh but alas i did not last thing i'll add is um if they lose soto i could see the county stats coming down i you know the expectation should be that they

re-signed sodo but it's not a given so i guess we'll see what happens in the off season there Number three, again, it's a clear top three for me. I think you can make the argument that based on how you want to construct your roster, if you want maybe more batting average and steals, you can argue for Bobby Wood Jr. being higher than Judge in a category league, I don't think that I would,

but I think it is really close between the two. And Bobby Wood Jr. is the third overall pick here, who has gone 30-30 and back-to-back seasons. He just continues to improve. The counting stats were awesome this year. He got the batting average up to 332, 977 OPS, expected stats were amazing as well. I guess there's a chance that there's another level.

Like, can he flirt with being a 40-40 player? I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. But even if he just continues to be this player, he's worthy of being a top three pick. Well, remember in 2023, it's hard to keep my year straight. In 2023, he came within a stolen base of being the fourth ever 30-50 player joining Ronald de Kunya in that club the same year. Yeah.

And there was no loss in front. foot speed. Yeah. Like he stole almost 20 fewer bags this year, but he was still arguably the fastest player in baseball. They were a little more judicious, I guess, in sending. Well, and it was mostly in the second half. I noticed this with Bobby Witt when I was doing my deep dive on him.

22 of his steals came in the first half, only nine in the second half. So if I have a worry about Bobby Witt and we're talking very, very, very, very small worry, He's clear number three for me overall. It's that with the Royals being more of a contender, are they willing to take as many chances on the base paths? And I will just say, I think the Royals are probably going to take a pretty big step back next year. I'm not like trying to be a hater.

But generally speaking, when a team gets 30 wins better than the year before, you should bet on that team taking a step back. You saw with the Rangers and Diamondbacks to a certain extent this year. So, yeah, I think that's a decent assumption. Yeah, 30 wins better than the year before. Before we hit our first break, reminder, you can always listen to FBT and our five-minute podcast, Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 on Spotify.

If you're watching on YouTube, you can scan the QR code on the screen now, and that will take you right to the FBT Spotify feed. Let's take our first break. When we return, we'll continue on with the first round in 2025. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in the first three picks for next season, Otani, Judge, and Bobby Whit Jr. Scott, you are up, fourth overall. Okay, so now we actually have an interesting pick to make here. And this is one time where I'm going to change course from that September article. I'm going to go with Jose Ramirez here as the fourth overall pick. And I do that thinking, believing he won't be as good as he was in 2024. Chances are, Otani and Judge won't either.

But Ramirez, 39 homers, 41 steals. So he came very close to a 40-40 season, which obviously he'd never done before, hasn't been done many times in history. And that was a career high and stolen bases. It was, what, equaling a career high in home runs. I think he'd hit 39 once before. But it was a few years earlier. But Jose Ramirez, very bankable first rounder.

He's been, you know, an obvious first rounder for like the better part of a decade. Actually heading into 2024 was the first time in a long. time we were drafting him more like round two and that's just because this 2023 season was a little bit of a misstep but it wasn't even really like it was bad it was just every all the numbers were down a little bit for ramirez but after seeing him bounce back i think we can rule out that he's on the decline or anything like that there is a bit of a position scarcity element to this pick two because third base doesn't look so hot for next year and i think ramirez is the clear number one at that position but that's more like a tiebreaker than the reason I'm taking Ramirez.

I think there are a lot of ways you could go with this number four pick, but Ramirez's consistency and that small element of position scarcity or why I'm taking them here. Yeah, I was working on my state of the third base position piece, which would go out on the FBT newsletter next week. And I was talking to Frank before you showed up, Scott. And the question was, is Jose Ramirez the biggest tier of one player in fantasy right now, relative to his position?

And I think, Cotel Marte, I think you can make a case for, but that's more like he's maybe a second rounder and the other guys are maybe more like fourth rounders. I think the gap between Ramirez, who's a clear first rounder, I think a top five pick. and I don't know if any other third rounders or third baseman are definitely second round picks. You could squeeze Rafael Devers or Ross and Riley in there, but they're both coming off injuries, both coming off sort of weird seasons.

I think they'll probably slide a little bit. So yeah, I think Jose Ramirez is the biggest clear edge you can get at a position right now. Just a little additional context. Gunner Henderson and L.E. De La Cruz will not be eligible at third base anymore. So if you're wondering, well, why not them? We'll get to them, but they're short stops only.

Vlad Jr. is not either. So if you look at 2024 rankings, technically there were four third basemen who were top 13 hitters. Only one of them is actually a third basement in 2025. Josh Chisholm, actually, I'm really interested to see if anyone pulls the trigger there. He finishes the number 22 player in rhodo form. and rhodo scoring in 2024. But we'll maybe, but probably not get there. Chris, back to you.

Fifth overall. Like Scott said, it really opens up after the top three. I think you can go a lot of different ways with number four. I will go with my number two outfielder. That's Juan Soto, who, I think he's another one where you probably just assume that he's not going to be as good in 2025 as he was in 2024. But it is worth noting.

I think he was the biggest underperformer by ex-woba among qualifiers in baseball. If not, he was one of the five highest. He had a 463X Wobah, which is, I think, third only to Otonian Trout or Otonian judge this season. He had an actual Wobah of 421. Now, we talked a lot about. how Juan Soto over the previous couple of seasons had underperformed his ex-Woba. We stopped being concerned about that in 2024 because his underlying skill set was so much better than it happened. But he was a little bit worse than his, actually a lot worse than his underlying data would suggest.

You could look at that both ways, right? He probably won't be as good underlying. like the skills will probably regress a little bit in 2024 or 2025. He's 26 years old for what worth. I think actually he doesn't turn 26 for a couple more weeks. But even if the skills decline, you could probably reasonably expect a little bit less of a gap to where, yeah, what he did this year might just be

what the next four or five seasons for Wansota look like. Sixth overall is going to go to me and I will be selected. Gunner Henderson, who took another huge step forward in his age 23 season. He hit 281, 37 homers, 118 run scored, 21 steals in 893 OPS. The expected stats basically by everything that Gunner Henderson just did. Elite quality of contact, 92.8 average exit velocity that ranked in the 94th percentile. And one of my concerns for Gunner Henderson coming into the season was that he was a young hitter that I hadn't seen perform against lefties yet.

And I didn't know if he can do it, and he did it. He wasn't amazing, but he was good enough. He made big strides against lefties. He hit 257, eight of his 37 homers, and 829 OPS. That is certainly serviceable enough. And so, yeah, I think there's every reason to believe in what Gunnersen just did.

And I think he can run even more. I mean, 21 steals, 89th percentile sprint speed. I don't think it's crazy if he bumps that up to like 25, if everything works out and he just goes crazy. Like we could get a 30-30 season out of Gunner Henderson next year. And that was what we talked about last year, where he only stole 10 bases in his first full season, but the underlying data suggested he was a much better base runner than that.

And that's what we saw. The one thing I will say about Gunner Henderson is, while the surface level numbers against lefties were quite good, 829 OPS, I think you said, 356 Wobah 318 X Woba which is playable but he didn't impact the ball against lefties nearly as well as he did against Ritees. 94.6 mile per hour average velocity against Ritees. 88 against lefties like it feels more like a yeah he can keep his head above water against lefties. It's not going to kill him but I don't know if he can replicate what he did.

last year against them. And then there's just the sort of meh, second half. I don't know if you hold that against him. But yeah, those would be the cases against Gunner Henderson. This is the first pick

that I disagree with. And yet, it's fine. Like, I'm not, like, it's, it's, we're nitpicking here over a particular, a stretch of players. But I, I actually do

have another shortstop ranked in between Bobby Witt and Gunner Henderson personally. Well, you can pick him right now. I could pick him, but I'm not going to because that shortstop is also eligible in the outfield. And I have another outfielder ranked ahead of that shortstop. And this is where I wasn't who I thought you were talking about that. I'm picking Ronald de Cunia. I'm picking Ronald de Cunia. And the reason, the case for it should be pretty obvious.

He was had an all-time fantasy season and in 20, 23. Then he tore his ACL, a second torn ACL, but to the opposite knee. He tore it a month earlier than the first, and the first torn ACL. He made it back in late April the following year. So I think there's a good chance Ronald de Cune is ready to go for the start of the year. Obviously, if we're leading up to it in spring training and it looks like he's not going to be, then I'll have to adjust down. But if it comes back on time, if he is, if he looks like himself, if he looks like Ronald de Kune, if he's not limited running and everything. This is a league winning type of pick.

And I think the upside is so high. The upside is high enough that he could, he would be the obvious fourth with the judge Otani Whitgroup at the top. That I think this is, this is when I'm willing to do it. The upside is massive. As you said, I mean, we saw in 2020. 43, 41 homers, 73 steals, a 337 batting average. I wonder if coming back from this injury, does he change his play style a little bit?

27 years old, a torn ACL in both knees. I think he's going to be really polarizing. It'll depend on who you ask and their risk tolerance. I can't imagine he'll change his play style. My first run... Because I see him play a lot, and there's just no way he's going to put up with changing his play style. My first run of just doing this exercise myself, I had a kunia at 17.

And I don't know if that's right or wrong. That's just, I guess, me kind of... I think you had him ranked higher coming back from the first torn ACL. I wasn't in on him that season either. And for what it's worth, he was bad in that season coming back from the first tour ACL2. That's the biggest concern for me is just that he was kind of managing pain in that knee the first time all year. And then we heard that in February of this year too. and then he got off to a bad start.

So it's just weird to me. I don't know. But that's not the norm. And I kind of have a feeling that, particularly since he's been through the process before, he's going to know what to do better. And I rarely take risks early in drafts, but the upside here is just on such a high level that,

yeah, I'm willing to do it. There are a few NFBC draft champions drafts going on right now. And from what I, the data that I saw someone posted just a chart with all like the top 50 picks, I think, from all the drafts or whatever it was. There were three drafts. Shoha Tani was the number one pick and two of them. Ronald Nakunia was number one and the other one. I don't think you should do that. Hey.

But like Frank said, he's going to be very polarizing. I think there are going to be people who have him. I don't think you should have him any higher than fourth. I think that's just like getting too cute and taking on too much risk for what probably isn't a significant increase in upside. Yeah. I couldn't argue with someone if they didn't have him inside their top 15 though. Like I can see both cases. Yeah.

All right, Chris. Over to you for the eighth overall pick. We probably need to stop the slides so we don't get yelled at. No, no, no. Who are you talking about? Take who you think should go at this spot. Well, I, I think. Who are we missing?

That's somebody's going to yell at. Ellie Dela Cruz. Oh. He is probably going to be a top five pick in most drafts. Don't look, Chris. You need to be the one doing the yelling. You don't need to worry about you. I am also saying that I think despite some concerns that I have that Frank and I mentioned in a recent

podcast, I think last week, I still think he should probably. go this high. I think this is the right. Like, I think there are safer picks. I think Wookie Betts is safer. Kyle Tucker is probably safer, although, you know, with the, with everything that went on this year, I have no idea. But, yeah, Ellie, I don't think we've seen the power ceiling for Ellie De La Cruz. I don't think we've seen the stolen base ceiling, which is wild to think about a guy who just stole 67 bases, but he kind of slowed down as the season went on. And, you know, if he, if he, so he had three months from April to July where he had at least 14 steals. Then in August and September, he stole six each. If he had stolen 12 in both of those months, it wouldn't be

that surprising. And all of a sudden, you're talking about pushing 80 steals. I think that's a realistic ceiling for Ellie De La Cruz. Yeah, but what about what about if he's just the same as this year? Yeah. Well, if it's not even the floor. Just what if he's the same as this year? And he's a negative,

he's a negative in three of the five Roto categories. He was the number five player in Roto. Right, but he makes for a really extreme build. Like you are, you are like, I'm going to, I'm going to take it easy on stolen bases because I put so many eggs in that basket in the first round and I need to make up ground a batting average. I need to make up ground and runs in RBI.

I need to make up ground and home runs to a small extent. I think you're overstating the extent to which he was a negative. No, compare his numbers in those categories to the other first rounders. Right. No, he was worse, but like. I'm just not stressed enough about stolen bases, particularly in a very plentiful time for them that I want to. Just for some context. the difference between

Ellie de la Cruz and Jose Ramirez in batting average was 13 hits over the course of the season. They had almost, they had 620 and 618 at bats. Ellie had 160 hits. Jose Ramirez had 173.

Gunner Henderson had 17 more hits over 12 more at bats than L.A. de Cruz. So I'm not saying that the gap in batting average doesn't matter. It does. And 250, 259 is not

Ellie de la Cruz's floor like he hit 230 something in the second half no 264 but his XBA was worse what am I yeah XBA was 240 that's what I Jose Ramirez also had 42 more

RBI than him sure no I that's that but Ellie De La Cruz also had 25 more stolen or 28 more small bases like that's I get what you're saying there's a lot more 14 more home runs

It's a weird. It's a weird profile to build a first round pick around. I still think he, he's worth drafting here. I don't know if I'm going to be the one to draft him very often. Because like I said, even if I rank him eight overall, he's not going to,

like, what pick are we on now? Eight. We're on eight now? Yeah. If the three of us do a bunch of drafts where it's just the three of us, okay, maybe I'll end up drafting L.A. Delacruz at eighth overall.

But I think more often than not, Ellie Dealer Cruz has gone by the fifth pick. Yeah, and I'm fine with that. I am 10th for what it's worth. There's just two guys that I take ahead of him that we haven't taken yet, including another shortstop. And Ellie Dealer Cruz, I will point out,

I think he probably drops down a little bit in a points league. He was the 10th best hitter in head to head points. So I think he's probably more of like a, you know, maybe late first, early second round pick in that format. But yeah, he's probably in that, like, five, to eight range, I think, in most roto or category league drafts. We are up

to the ninth pick, and it is my pick, and I will select Kyle Tucker, who was on pace for a career year before missing nearly half the season with this mysterious shin injury, which it turned out to be some kind of fracture, some kind of stress fracture, which when it first happened, they were like,

yeah, it's a shin contusion, and then the next thing you know, he's out for like three months, but he hit 23 homers with 11 steals in 78 games and has basically been healthy the three years prior to that. His 150 game pace this year, 44 homers, 107 runs scored 94 RBI, and 21 steals, all with a really good batting average and obviously hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. So I have no reason to think outside of, you know, maybe with the shin injury, does he run a little bit less moving forward? I guess it's a possibility, but he hasn't really showed that. So yeah, I would probably bet on something like

a 35, 20, you know, projection for next season with a really good batting average again. And I think that's worthy of being the ninth overall pick. Let's take our final break. And when we return, we've got 10, 11, 12, and all of the second round, we'll do that right after this. Welcome back in the first nine picks so far. And we are taking our sweet time on all these picks.

Shohei Otani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Wood Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Gunner Henderson, Ronald Acuna, Ellie Dela-Cruz, Kyle Tucker, and Scott, you are up with the 10th overall pick. All right, so I took a big uncharacteristic gamble with my last pick, Ronald de Kuna, at what was it, six? Seven. Seven. Okay. So here at 10th, I'm going to go with the ultra-safe Mookie Betts, who is about as worry-free as the first rounder can be. He is also the first dual-eligible player, probably the only dual-eligible player. we're going to draft today, right?

Unless you're counting Shohei Otani. Shortstop and outfield, he no longer has second base. It would be nice if he did. But between shortstop and outfield, I think it's a pretty close call where you're going to play Mooki Betts. And he actually reversed his downward stolen base trend a little this year, which is nice.

I'm not counting on him to deliver me 20 plus, but I think it's still within their own possibility for bets. With huge counting stats, good batting average, good home run total. just not a lot to worry about when you take him. It just, it feels a little boring, doesn't it? Right. Which is weird because last year or two years ago, he had 39 homers.

Yeah. The power did take a step back this year. His quality of contact was down. He missed nearly two months with a fractured hand. And wasn't as good when he returned. He wasn't really hitting for power before the broken hand. That was because remember, he had. he had that outrageous stretch with five home runs in the first eight games.

And it looked like, oh my goodness, Mookie Bats is going to have another career year for power. Even before the injury, he had 64 games after those eight games before he went on the aisle with the fractured hand. He only had five homers in his next 64 games before the injury. I'm not saying I have any real concerns. It just, that was the one thing that stood out for me

when I looked into Mookie Betts was just all of a sudden after the two years where the power came back in a big way and he changed his swing, it was a conscious decision. At 31, the power went away. And that's my concern. It's just we've seen that.

So like we've seen ups and downs with home runs and Mookie Betts in the past. We've seen ups and downs with batting average. And he... You've never made a mistake when you... And you never made a mistake in drafting him. Like, even, okay, maybe you passed on a better player. It still wasn't a mistake to draft Mookie Betts, right?

Like, it's not, you're not going to lose your draft with Mookie. You're not going to lose your league with MookieBets. Mm-hmm. All right. That was Scott's pick and Chris, back to you for the 11th pick. I think things really open up here. There's been a couple of points where they open up. I think

And I don't I want to make sure I'm not forgetting anyone But I think You go with the best hitter left Who I think is Yorda Alvarez It's one of the first picks so far That is a true zero in stolen bases

I guess technically not He stole six bases this year So hello five categories Stud Yard on Alvarez So do Soda Yeah Soto So do

still seven, I guess. Alvarez, this feels like Jose Ramirez in 2024. Remember, 2024 Jose Ramirez, or 2023, Jose Ramirez,

had this weird season where, like, he mostly hit like himself. And then for some reason only had, like, it was like 170 combined runs in RBI. It was a super low number. But for the most part, he still liked Jose,

looked like, Jose Ramirez. And that's basically what we're looking at with Yarned Alvarez, who had in 2023, 97 RBI, 77 runs in 114 games. 2024, he plays 147 games, has 11 fewer RBI and 11 more runs. So the same number in 33 more games. That feels like a total fluke. Yorna Alvarez, I think, is an elite, elite four category contributor.

If you get five stolen bases from him, I think that's a win, but you're not drafting him for that. And I think outside of the first couple of players, he's the strongest four category contributor you can find. Again, I think there are a lot of different directions you could go from here. The last pick of the first round,

I'm going to take Fernando Tatis. Again, I think you can make the argument for like four or five different hitters at this point. He missed a chunk of time this past season with a right femoral, stress reaction, but when he was healthy, 21 homers, 11 seals, 833 OPS, the 150 game pace, 30 homers, 16 steals. You know, maybe coming back from that injury or if he was dealing with it early on is part of a reason

why he didn't run as much, but he had 29 steals in 2023. So I still think he's a candidate that could go 30-30 if just everything cliques and he stays healthy for an entire season. He underperformed his expected stats by quite a bit. he has done that two years in a row so maybe it's kind of becoming a trend in the same way that it was for Vladimir Guerrero, but at least based on the

quality of contact, Staccast says that Tatis does deserve a better outcome this past season, and he just had a huge post season as well. So I mean, not that that should matter really too much, but just to give us a little added cherry

on top there, if you have any doubts with Fernando Tatis. I have him at 12th of all. No, I just think this is where our rankings are going to divert a little bit because you both just picked an outfielder. My next outfielder isn't even the one of the two you picked. And I'm not about to pick him. Yes, see, whereas for me, I think this is an outfield run. I think there should be probably a couple more outfielder's take.

All right, let's quickly recap the first round. Otani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Gunner Henderson, Ronald Cunia, Ellie De La Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Yordon Alvarez, and Fernando Tatis, and we are into round two. Scott, you are up 13th overall. Yeah, I'm going to take Francisco Lindor, so I'm not taking an outfielder. I feel like Francisco Lindor is much more bankable in terms of early round production. He would have had his second straight 30-30 season if he hadn't missed the last couple weeks with that back issue.

and as we saw in the postseason doesn't seem like the back's going to be a hindrance to his performance. So tons of runs, tons of RBI. The batting average is never quite where you want it to be, but you could say the same thing for Jose Ramirez. He did hit 300 in the second half, Francisco Lindor. But, you know, I'm expecting something in the 270-280 range.

And all the other four categories he should be really, really strong. strong. And do not worry if he gets off to a slow start because we have to deal with this every single year. We have to talk people down from the ledge. This past season, Lindor was moved up to the leadoff spot on May 18th. And from that point forward, he hit 304 with 26 home runs, 23 steals and a 928 LPS. He is typically a slow starter.

But don't worry if that happens again in 2025. Chris, over to you. The second pick of round two, 14th overall. Okay I You know we know he's taking an outfielder Well now Outfield run

I'm rethinking it I'm rethinking it Oh Oh I'm rethinking it I do think the next position player Should be an outfielder

I will say that But I don't want to be the one to do it So I'll take Terrick Scoobal First starting pitcher off the board. I think he is clearly the best pitcher on a per game basis in

Major League Baseball right now and I don't like, yeah, Zach Wheeler's going to throw more innings than him. I don't really care that much about that when you're talking about 190 versus 200. I'll take the better pitcher and I think

that's Terrick's Google. Yeah. I think he very clearly should be the top pitcher drafted when that happens. I think Mike kind of, you know, alter a little bit from draft to draft. I mean, you know, in a points league or a pitcher-heavy draft, you know, maybe he's a first-round pick in other drafts. If everyone likes to wait, maybe he's like a mid-to-late second-round pick. So I think we'll see some variance in just like the ADP for school,

but my guess is he will be the top pitcher drafted in most, if not every draft, in 2025. Back to me, third pick of round two, and this is 15th overall. So I have to make the decision between these two. And I am going to take Corbyn Carroll, who I was not taking in any drafts this past season because I was worried about the shoulder. And he got off to that guy. He got off to the awful start. And I thought, all right, maybe a little bit of vindication with the shoulder injury.

But it turns out that he tweaked his swing a little bit. And the swing was just off basically for the first couple of months of the season. but once we got to July, well, first three months were really, really bad. But from July on, Corbyn Carroll hit 250 with 20 homers, 21 steals, and 889 OPS, just started pulling the ball a little bit more, hitting the ball much harder, 91.2 average exit velocity in the final three months of the season.

The infield fly ball rate came way down during that stretch as well. So got back on track. I don't really know exactly where the batting average is going to lie. I think that's still kind of up in the air. I would bet on him probably being like a 260, 270 hitter. But I think we saw the really high-end outcome of that in year one. And we saw the low-end outcome of that in year two with Corby and Carroll. And I do think he will get back to running more as well.

So yes, I will end the slide and take him 15th overall. Yeah, that was the one I was talking about, who I had ahead of Alvarez and Tatis. Yeah. So there you go. You took him. I think that's completely reasonable for having him to have him. high as well. So I know we're doing five by five rankings here, but from June 6th on, Corbyn

Carroll had 4.07 head to head points per game, which is about the same that Kyle Tucker had this past year in what was a ridiculous per game year for Kyle Tucker. Yeah, the run pace for Corby and Carroll, even when things weren't going well, was outright. but that June 6th date on, 154 run pace over 162 games. He just scored 121 run scored while batting 231. And I mean, think about that. He actually like got a decent amount of time off in that time, especially when things were going really poorly around the middle of summer.

So, yeah, it's a pretty bonkers situation for Corby and Carroll as well. And last point on him, I think we're past the shoulder injury. I'm not going to say that we are completely past it because, again, those swings that I saw a couple of years ago and the fact that he has had shoulder surgery in the past. But we didn't see any of that this season. It wasn't, he never blamed it. The team never said that that was part of the reason why he was struggling. So I think we're past it with Kevin Cowen.

You have PTSD, Frank. You have post-traumatic shoulder disorder. Yeah, I actually am seeing an orthopedist for my shoulder now. So maybe it's just me and Corbyn Carol. You're projecting. Yeah, yeah, I think so. Scott, over to you, the fourth pick of round two, and this is 16th overall. So I think we're still a couple hitters away for me, even thinking about taking a pitcher.

I will go ahead and take the outfielder here, even though I kind of want to take the other guy instead. I'll take the outfielder. I'll take Julio Rodriguez because it is five by five. it is a chance to get hopefully a nice stolen base total. And so I'm going to go ahead and do it and hope that he comes closer to the numbers we saw in, in 2023, which we also saw in 2022. And he got off to a slow start again, started to pick things up in July, I think it was. And that's when he had the high ankle sprain, which I think caused a little. bit of a reset. He made a quick return from it, but didn't look right in August. And then September

ended up being his best month. So if he can, if Oliocan Rodriguez could just avoid that slow start, then we're talking potentially top five production. Everybody had him as the number three overall player going into last year. And like his expected stats on stat cast were exactly the same as in 2023, more or less. So I think he's the same player. I just think bad timing with the injury and just the usual slow start for Julio Rodriguez made it a worse season. Yeah, and talent-wise, if everything works out, I mean, he could go 40-40. We were saying the same thing coming into last season, and he gets off to these slow starts every year. It looked like he was getting back on track, and then obviously derailed a little bit by that ankle injury.

So I think we just saw the floor from Julio Rodriguez, and again, I think the ceiling could be 40-40 in 2025. And that case I made for taking him because of the stolen bases, that's ultimately, when I published those, those rankings in September, I had Jordan Alvarez ahead of Corbyn, Carol Fernando Tatis, and who Leo Rodriguez, but I ended up dropping them behind all three in my outfield rankings, because I want those stolen bases in this format. Chris, over to you, the fifth pick of round two, 17th overall. I'm assuming the other guy was Vladimir Guerrero, right, Scott? It was. Yeah, that feels like the obvious choice here, which, you know, famous last words, we've been, We've bought into Vladimir Guerrero as an elite hitter before, and it turned out to not be the case.

He spent a couple seasons kind of lost in the doldrums a little bit, but bounced back in a massive way. It was arguably the best hitter in baseball from like July 1st on, was right there with Aaron Judge. Quality of contact metrics were better than they've been in any season since 2021. Strikeout rate, career best. I was surprised that he was able to play third base and wasn't a disaster there in a way that makes me think that maybe he'll gain third base eligibility relatively early on last next year.

He only played, I think, five games total or sorry, 12 games total there, but it was mostly in the second half. So he actually gained eligibility fairly quickly once he started playing third base. So that's another one where, you know, I don't love playing the position eligibility game. or the positional scarcity game, but if you have a tiebreaker,

and I'm not actually sure there's anyone who should be tied with Vladimir Guerrero here. Yeah. I think it's more of a nice boat between him and Jordan Alvarez. Like I said, I had Jordan Alvarez behind the base stealing outfielders, but I think similar, I expect similar outcomes as hitters between the

Vlad and Jordan. Yeah, I think Yoron is just a lot safer. Vlad is one of those guys like Juan Soto, who just a lot of the power that he generates is to the power alleys. And it's like, man, if that guy played in Cincinnati, you look at the expected home runs, he would have hit 42 home runs if he played in Cincinnati, because that's one that Cincinnati and Philadelphia have very shallow power alleys.

And so those are the two where, like, if Vladimir Herrera either tweaked his swing a little bit, which I think at this point, he probably is what he is, and it's just whether he can maximize what he does. but there is a chance he gets traded this offseason. You know, we certainly don't know where, but there were rumors about him at the trade deadline. He is an expiring contract at the end of this year.

So, you know, there's a chance he gets to a park that's a little more beneficial because Roger's Center has played pretty weird the last couple of years since their renovations. So I think he's a perfectly fine pick. I just think he's like fairly close. clearly not a first rounder. And I think you can make a case for everyone who went before him being a first rounder.

I think from picks 11 through 17, which again were Alvarez, Tatez, Lindor, Scoubel, Carol, Julio Rodriguez, and Vlad. I think you could put those guys in almost any order. I think it's pretty jumbled up and it'll come down to preference with how you want to build your teams. I mean, again, if you want the base dealers, go for that. but maybe you want to mix one base dealer with one four category contributor and just load up the counting stats as well.

Obviously there are many different ways to build your team. Last thing on Vlad, I think a storyline heading into next season the hair, Chris. What does the hair look like? Because once he cut his hair last season from June 19th on, 359 batting average, 23 homers, and a 1084 OPS

for Vladimir Guerrero. But here's one thing that I want to point out is like, here's how you're draft could shake out based on what we've done so far. You could end up with Ellie De La Cruz and Vladimir Guerrero as your first two picks. And that works. That feels pretty awesome. That feels like an easy way to make the Ellie De La Cruz thing work.

Yeah. No, I agree with that. It gets a little hairier if like you take Ellie and Vlad gets taken before either of Julio or Corby and Carroll because then you're taking on a lot of batting average risk with those two guys. But if it works out that it's Ellie and Vlad, that feels pretty awesome. All right, over to me. It's the sixth pick of round two.

This is 18th overall, and I will select Trey Turner, who missed about six weeks with a strained left hamstring, but he did bounce back on a per game basis. He was very good this past season with the Phillies. He hit 295 with 21 homers, 88 runs scored 19 steals in 121 games. His 150 game pace was 26 homers,

109 runs, and 23 steals. And once he returned from the hamstring injury, He had just nine steals in 88 games over his final, you know, coming back in June, final 88 games, just the nine steals. The first 33 games before he got hurt, he had 10 steals. So it looked like he was going to run crazy. I mean, it was like a 50 plus steel pace over a full season before he got hurt. So I just wondered if maybe that part of his game was really going to bounce back

and then got derailed by the hamstring injury. I don't think we're ever going to see a huge steel season from him again, but I still think we can get like a 30, maybe push 40 steel season out of Trey Turner with a good batting average and, you know, serviceable home run out, put something like 25 home runs. So I think that's worthy of being a mid second round pick. I think more realistically, he's a 25, 25 guy, but with a good batting average and that's perfectly fine use of a second round pick.

So I don't. Yeah, he just hasn't been the same base dealer since leaving Washington. and that was long enough ago that I'm not really counting on it changing. I think, wasn't he batting in front of Harper? So they didn't like him running in front of Harper. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not counting on that changing.

I would agree, but I'm pretty sure he bat ahead of Harper early in the season. And again, he had 10 steals in the first 33 games before he got hurt. So I would have loved to see a play out if he didn't hurt his hamstring. Like, what would have happened this year? And just worth saying, a legitimate threat to lead the league and run scored.

Yeah. At the top of that. line if he stays healthy. Again, that was Trey Turner over to Scott. Seventh pick of round two, 19th overall. I think the next hitter, well, there might be some disagreement over who the next hitter is, but I think there's a drop down in the hitter ranks here. So now's when I'm going to take Zach Wheeler.

And I don't need to go into wise, Zach Wheeler. Yeah, he was one of the two or three best pitchers in all of baseball this past season. I didn't realize 26 quality starts. led baseball, the next closest was like four different pitchers that had 22. So he was just a huge advantage in that category. If you play in a quality start league or if you're playing

in a points league where you get bonus points for quality starts. But yeah, Zach Wheeler, tremendous season, even in age, you know, at age like 34. So I was trying to make that quick, but... I messed it up. No, I'm about to mess it up further.

I am seeing in some some parts of the fantasy baseball commentary world, the obvious top two is scoble and skeins, Paul Skeens. I've been saying for weeks now that the obvious top two is scoble and Wheeler, but maybe it's not an obvious two, top two, if others are saying the obvious top two is someone else. I just think I'm always skeptical of someone taking on an ace workload

before they've ever taken on an ace workload, because I just don't think every pitcher's capable of that. And so that's why Skeens is going to be a clear third for me. But, you know, he had a sub 2ERA as a rookie. So I get it if you want to go with him over Wheeler. I just think there's nothing to worry about with Wheeler. He's been a bankable ace for several years now. Yep.

Over to Chris, eighth pick of round 220th overall. And I really don't want to take a hitter here. I just, I think there's a clear enough drop off that I don't want to be the one to do it. And there's one guy who, I don't actually have ranked this way. And I'm kind of intrigued by the possibility of taking him. But I'm not going to do it because I don't think anybody else is going to do it either. So we'll just do Paul Skeins here who I agree is a clear third behind Scoob.

Like I would not take Skeens if Scoobel and Wheeler are on the board. And so you might see Wheeler 19 skeins 20 and think, oh, they're right next to each other. I think there's a clear hierarchy. I agree with Scott. I'll take the guy who's done it, especially when like Paul Skeens might be better than Zach Wheeler. He certainly was on a per inning basis for 130 something innings. Zach Wheeler's pretty good.

So like I'll take that edge. But to be clear, Paul Skeens had the third best among pitchers with 100 innings. He had the third best strikeout rate. He had the second best K minus walk rate. He was better than. Chris Sale in both. Very good quality of contact data. Very little about the 196 ERA

looks fluky besides the fact that it's a 196 ERA and you just don't do that. That's not something that you do over 200 innings, but like maybe Paul Skines does, right? Like, I don't know. Like there was that one start in

probably like late August or early September where he just threw his change up a ton and got a bunch of whiffs with it if you remember that. And it's like, Yeah. This guy might just have like four plus pitches. All six of his pitches were good one way or another. Either got lots of whiffs or really good quality of contact against.

He might be the best pitcher in baseball. I'll take Terrick Scoobal and Zach Wheeler because both have done that over, you know, 200 or so innings. But I'm not going to argue with someone if they say Paul Skeen is the best pitcher in baseball because I don't feel that strongly that he isn't. Yeah. And he got up to 160. and a third total innings this year

between the majors and the minor. So in theory, it should be just wheels up in 2025. I don't see any reason why Paul Skeens couldn't get to 180 plus innings in 2025 barring an injury. But I think as we've seen, any pitcher could be quote unquote,

injury prone in any season. So wheels up is a weird phrase to use, given that. Swords up is a pirate. Well, because it's behind Wheeler. Yeah. Wheels down. down? I don't know.

Sales up. Mass up. Sales up. Yeah. Well, then you got to worry about Chris sales. We need some kind of pirate technology terminology there for Paul's case. Yeah. Wheels up for Wheeler. Yeah. Planks. Planks up down for skeins. Fair enough. Ninth pick of round two. Again, this is. Say something, but I'm not going to. It's fine. Move on.

This is another part where it just feels like it's wide open. I'm going to go ahead. I'm going to make just a boring pick and take Bryce Harper. Just a rock solid season. I was very excited to draft him. And to be honest, I was a little bit underwhelmed by the way that it played out. He was fine. 285 batting average, 30 homers, 85 runs, 87 RBI, 7 steals. Kind of similar to Alvarez, based on how good the Phillies are and that lineup felt like the counting set should have been better for Bryce Harper. and for whatever it's worth, I mean, he did overperform his expected stats, which is not something we say a lot about early round hitters.

So he's getting a little bit older. I think he's totally fine here. I'm just, I guess, nitpicking for who I'm taking here. And that is Bryce Harper. And with that, 10th overall pick. 10th pick of round two, excuse me. This is pick 22, and it's your last pick of the draft scott. Oh, man, it is, isn't it?

So make it count. Well, okay. I'm not going to game the system here and sneak in somebody who I want to be represented. I'm going to take who I honestly think deserves to be taken next. And that's that's Jaron Duran, who I think there's nothing I look at that suggests his breakout season was illegitimate. It really was kind of just a continuation of 2023 done over more of bats. If you look at the percentages, there were some improvements in certain areas. But no, the expected stats back up what he did.

And what he did was basically Corby and Carroll like. If we're just talking about the five-by-five stats, we're not talking about points league considerations. And you're getting him nearly a full-round discount here, I guess a little less. But yeah, I think Jaron is legit. So I'm taking him here. Yeah, Chris and I have mentioned, we think there's a possibility

the Red Sox could look to sell high on him. Again, that's pure speculation on our part. It's not like we've heard anything or read anything that that's going to happen, but I guess it's just a possibility. And plus, you're buying a player who has only done it over the full season once in his career. So I guess keep that in mind.

But yeah, based on what he just did, I think totally worthy of being a second row pick. I mean, the only other hitters I'd consider here were also talking about a one-year trend of studliness So, yeah. All right, Chris, over to you. 11th pick of round 2, 23rd overall, and your final pick?

Pass. I'll take two picks if you don't want them. Yeah, I don't really love a lot of the options available to me here. I could be talking. I think you can either go boring or upside. Like, where do you want to go? Yeah. I think you can make a case for, we might as well just start

mentioning players because we're running out of time and there might not be, I think you can make the case for Freddie Freeman. I think you can make the case for Catele-Marty. I think you can make the case for Raphael Devers and Austin Riley. I kind of sort of want to make the case for Jazz Chisholm. His pace after getting trade to the Yankees was just bonkers. It was like 39 homers, 56 steals, I think. But I'm not going to do that. I think you make a case for Jackson Churio. I think you make a case for the next two starting pitchers, Chris Sale and Corbyn Burns.

I'm going to go boring. Yeah, I'm going to go boring and go with Raphael Devers. Who might just be Bryce Harper or Vladimir Guerrero or Yardin Alvarez at a between 10 and four pick discount, wherever those guys went. Like there's really not that big of a difference in the skill sets of those guys. So, yeah, Raphael Devers is fine. The only thing I'll add on jazz

is because, like, watching the Yankees closely, I just saw this play out, is when he first got there, basically, that first month, he was tremendous. And then over his final... We had the elbow injury. 21 games. Yeah, definitely could have played a part.

He hit 190 with two home runs. and a 565 OPS. And he hasn't been good in the postseason either. Stole a ton of bases though. Even in that stretch. His September, he had a 644 OPS in September, still stole 12 bases. Yeah.

Yeah, I have a few third basemen ahead of Jazz Chisholm. Yeah, same. The paces are what they are. But look at the run in RBI paces. The Yankees did not. bat him in a prominent spot. And so as good as he was during that time with the Yankees, which probably won't translate to a full season,

it was still not a very good runner RBI total. You're expecting a 250-ish batting average. We should probably expect him to miss a fair amount of time with injuries because this year was the one time he didn't. And even then, he busted the UCL on his elbow and just played through it. Yeah, there he goes. Yeah, there was a big injury, right. It just played through it.

So, yeah, I'm not going to be the one eager to draft Jazz Chisholm, though he's probably like, he's probably like a late third rounder for me. I do think that there is a chance he moves up in the lineup if one or both of Soto or Glaver Torres leaves the team. I think it's pretty likely that Glebert Torres will be on another team next season. And if that happens, like Jazz could lead off for the Yankees next year. so I'll just throw that out as a possibility for him. The last pick of round two and today's exercise is for me,

and I will go ahead and take Jackson Truro, who got off to a slow start. Then he got things going, and he looked like a stud, basically, from June 1st on, he hit 303 with 16 home runs, 15 steals, got the K rate under 20% during that time. He hit the ball much harder. Still hits too many ground balls, so I think that's an area that he can improve upon.

also doesn't turn 21 until March of next year. So yes, there are still lots of ways that this young phenom could improve, and I don't think that that would surprise us one bit. But he just went 2020 as a 20-year-old. So the sky is the limit. Like, he could go 25, 25 next year. Like, can he push 30-30?

I don't think it's crazy based on his skill set. So, yeah, I think worthy of like a late second round pick, but as you guys mentioned, lots of options in this area. Freddie Freeman, Catel Marte, Jackson Merrill, Chris Sale, I think, could be a possibility. Corey Seeger, someone we haven't mentioned.

So I think all options here. For Trurio, it just, why didn't they let him run more? That's the big question I come back. This is a team that ran wild. Milwaukee, I think they were top three in the majors in stolen bases. And you had like,

Blake Perkins stole 23 bases. Willie Adamas stole 20. Christian Yelot still 21 and 73 games. Doesn't that almost give you confidence that he will run more though? Jake, Jake Bowers stole 13 bases. That's crazy. How did Jackson Churio only steal 22?

I think it's reasonable to assume that they just looked at it and said, hey, you're the young guy. We don't want you focusing on that. We want you focusing on your defense and your plate discipline and all those things. And like as he gets more comfortable in the majors, they'll let him run more, but it didn't really happen last year either. Like they didn't, he didn't run more as the season went on. So that was the one thing where it's like, this is an elite steel or speed guy.

He was 98th percentile, I think, in sprint speed. This is a guy who stole 40 bases in the minors. There's no reason he couldn't be a 40 steel guy. It's just will they let him? What was up with that? 97th percentile sprint speed. And as we say often, with Steve, It comes down to almost team context and just whether or not the player wants to run, basically.

The fact that the Brewers were second in baseball in steals under a new manager and Pat Murphy, I think that's super encouraging. And I think it's likely, I would say, that Jackson Trio has 30 plus steals next season. I hope so. Yeah. I mean, I was looking at 22 as a good thing. I wasn't even like bemoaning it or anything. So yeah, if he can get to 30, even better.

All right, so again, I'll just quickly recap. Let's recap both rounds. I'll read these off. We had Joey Hotani, Aaron Judge, Bobby Wood Jr., Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Gunner Henderson, Ronald de Cunia, Elie de la Cruz, and Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betz, Yordon Alvarez, and Fernando Tatis in the first round. Then the second round, Francisco Lindor, Terik Scoubel, Corbyn Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Trey Turner, Zach Wheeler, Paul Skeens.

and then Bryce Harper, Jaron, Duran, Raphael Devers, and Jackson Trio. Feel free to let us know in the comments on YouTube, how we did, any omissions, maybe who you would have drafted instead, or if you're listening on Spotify, there's a new function to leave comments on Spotify as well, so make sure to drop those there. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again on Thursday.

Bye-bye. Mount Podcasts.