Fantasy Baseball Today - Preseason Bust Picks & Drafting the First Two Rounds for 2026! (10/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: October 14, 2025We're down to four teams in the playoffs with the Dodgers, Brewers, Mariners and Blue Jays (3:50)! ... Which preseason bust picks did we get right (6:30)? ... Which preseason bust picks did we get wro...ng and why (14:11)? ... News (26:05): Mike Shildt is retiring after two seasons with the Padres. ... Let's draft the first two rounds for 2026, starting with the top three picks (29:45). ... Juan Soto and Jose Ramirez round out the top five (36:35). ... Who's at the back end of the first round (47:12)? ... Elly De La Cruz kicks off the second round (53:50). ... Cal Raleigh checks in at 17th overall (1:03:24). ... Who are the final four picks of the second round (1:11:24)? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CPTowers @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy.
Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris.
What's up and welcome in some fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, October 14th.
I am Frank Stan Fuliffe, Jollett, by Scott White.
A very tan Scott White.
Scott waited until the summer.
was over to go out and get tanned. I love it.
It's never not summer here in South Florida, Frank.
That is true. What was I thinking?
Yeah, I was, so my kids, both of them, kids plural, their little league season started.
And I was standing on the field, helping assist the very reluctant coach.
And just standing, you know, I wasn't moving around that much. I was just standing there.
But like, I was drenched and sweat by the end of it because the humidity was so great.
Even here in October.
And, yes, I got some coloration on the skin.
Did not burn.
I actually do tan pretty well.
I just rarely go outside.
So you don't see me tan very often.
But yeah, it doesn't look half bad.
No, it doesn't.
One of the first things I said when we hopped in this stream yard room together was,
Scott, either your color is off on your camera or you got some sun this weekend because I'm not used to it.
But all right, there you go.
Assistant coach, bench coach, Scott White.
I'm interested to see how that goes.
So if you have any great stories, great Little League stories, feel free to just bring them up.
It's a very unofficial capacity.
All righty.
Today on the show, we left off last podcast, recapping our preseason sleepers and breakouts.
Today we'll hit on the bus picks, what we got right and what we got wrong.
and then we will draft the first two rounds for 2026.
We did this at the All-Star break
is kind of redrafting the first two rounds
for the second half of the season.
Obviously, a lot has changed since then,
so Sky and I will alternate picks,
get those wheels turning a little bit for next season.
But first, we are down to the final four team, Scott, in the playoffs.
Dodgers going up against the Brewers.
As of recording, we have the Brewers up to Zip in game one.
anything crazy happens. We will alert the listening audience, although you'll probably already know
what happened by the time you're listening to this. And we got the Blue Jays going up against the Mariners.
The Mariners, by the way, who went into Toronto, into Rogers Center, and won the first two games
of that series, which is crazy stuff. Bryce Miller, I noticed in game one, velocity was way up in
that start. He pitched well, six innings, one-run ball, game two. It was just bombs away for
the Mariners. We got homers from Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco,
and Josh Naler.
Just to get to this level in the ALCS, by the way, for the Mariners,
a 15-inning marathon last Friday night,
which feels like ages ago.
But that was a crazy game.
Not sure you caught any of that, Scott.
I did.
I caught quite a bit of it.
And it kept going.
We don't see those 15-in-nig games during the regular season anymore
because of the ghost runner rule,
but they get rid of it for the playoffs,
understandably.
I don't think anybody mind sticking around 15 innings
for a game.
deciding or series deciding game like that.
But, you know, Jorge Polanco has had a lot of big hits this postseason.
He got another one to walk that one off.
And the Mariners, did we both pick the Mariners at the start of the playoffs to advance
to the World Series?
I think we did.
I believe we both had Mariners Phillies, but we had different teams winning.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I expressed a rooting interest for the Mariners, if I may.
If I may do that in my supposedly disinterested capacity.
Yeah, I hope the Mariners go well.
Though it does seem like the Dodgers are going to be hard to beat.
They have they pulled it off yet against the Brewers?
No, actually, they have second and third with one out with a two-run deficit.
So threatening up against Roki Sasaki in the ninth inning.
Yeah, there you go.
can't count it can't count on anything too soon in the playoffs
things could you know the Dodgers could still not make the world series
this is game one and of course we both mentioned we're going for the the Mariners in
the ALCS so naturally we just lost our Canadian listening audience
so you know nothing against the Blue Jays but they eliminated my Yankees
I still think they're gonna be a tough out even though they're they're down two games
to none right now I'm not sure it's it's over just yet for the Blue Jays it's a long
seven game series at this point. Let's get into our bus picks from before the season.
Some of the names we got right, some of the names we got wrong, kind of like we did last
episode, just kind of talk through some of our thought processes and kind of what we learn
from some of those picks. So Scott, one of the, or maybe, the bus pick you got most right, or one of
them, was Mark Vientos. And I mentioned this last episode, Junior Camerro versus Mark Vienzos
was a huge talking point. And discussion, you know, it was, you know, that was a pick
that many people had to make deciding between those two.
And your season would have gone very differently,
depending on who you took,
between Junior Camerro and Mark Viantos.
Yes.
And if you had read any of my content in the preseason,
you would have known to take Cominero instead of Vento.
Viantos, of course, they did have those abust.
And I think it played out very much like I thought it was.
So the problem with Mark Viantos, of course,
he had a great season for the Yankees or for the Mets.
in 2024, hitting 27 home runs.
And that was only in 111 games.
So it took him a while to get the third base job,
but he did go on to hit 27 home runs at an 837 OPS.
A lot of people thought he could build on that with an even better season.
But he was still a player with pretty bad plate discipline,
a very low walk rate that kept his on-base percentage down,
some strikeout issues that,
actually part of the reason Viantos entered the lineup as an everyday player for the Mets
is because he seemed to be improving in terms of strikeouts.
But then he kind of lost all of it again in the second half,
managed to perform well in spite of it.
But that obviously created a concern there for him.
And then he's a right-handed hitter who doesn't get on base at a particularly high rate,
whose defense is suspect.
Now, once they brought back Pete Alonzo,
it was pretty clear Viantos was going to have to be good enough offensively
for the Mets to justify playing in the third base consistently.
And when you don't have the platoon advantage as a right-handed hitter,
you're struggling to get on base.
It just seemed like there was a narrow margin for error there,
taking all those factors into account.
the poor on base skills, the vulnerability to strikeouts, the suspect defense, the right-handedness.
And by the way, Brett Beatty, still in the organization, obviously Vientos outperformed him considerably in 2024.
That's how he got the job.
But it wasn't an open and shut case.
If Viantos gave any of that back, and he did, he gave a lot of it back.
And meanwhile, Bady took this step forward to the point that by the end of the season, it was
Beatty playing even more consistently the Vientos was.
So it was just a situation where you had a player seemingly coming off a breakout season,
but people were ignoring some of the risk factors there and taking it all at phase value,
even in some cases presuming continued improvement for Viantos.
And if the cost was different, if everybody was skeptical of this breakthrough for Viantos,
I might have taken a different stance and been like, okay, let's see the glass half full.
this guy. But when the cost was what it was for Viantos, as you said, going in some drafts even
higher than Junior Cominero, it's like, I can see ways for this to go wrong. And that's exactly
what happened. Yeah, the weirdest part for Vientos this past season was that his strikeout rate
actually improved. But I think it came at the cost of him hitting for the same power that he did
the year prior. Now, he did pick things up in the second half a little bit. He had some moments.
But overall, you know, 233 batting average, 17 home runs. Not a great season there.
from Mark Vientos.
So a good call from you on that one.
I wanted to mention two names here that I was pretty pleased with as bus calls before the season.
Ronald Acuna, now this one is interesting.
He had a preseason ADP of 37.6.
He finished 148th overall.
He was still really good when he played this season.
But part of the reason why I was fading him was I always thought that he would debut a little bit later
than they were kind of leading on.
I think the people who drafted him in the third or fourth round might have
thought, okay, he'll be back May 1st, and he'll just kind of be Ronald de Cunia. And so he didn't
debut until May 23rd. So later than I think most people thought, he missed time later in the season
as well with some left Achilles tendonitis and missed a month with that as well. So only wound
up playing 95 games. And he just didn't run. And that was part of the issue too. I just didn't
know which version of Ronald de Cunia we were going to get. And that question is still out
heading into next season too. We just, we don't really know how much he's going to run.
He's still an extremely talented player.
He's in the prime of his career.
He hit for great power.
He scored a bunch of runs.
The batting average was good.
But he's had so many lower leg injuries
and has missed a lot of time so far in his career
that I was worried about that.
So I think that one actually kind of worked out well
fading Ronald de Cune in that spot.
And then the other one was O'Neill Cruz,
who it looked bad early on in the season, right?
Because he got out to that great start.
But the batting average in strikeouts just tanked his season.
It was a preseason ADP of 30.
37.4, so, you know, a three, three, four turn pick there in a 12-team league. He finished 171st overall.
That was despite 20 homers and 38 steals. The problem is he hit just 200 over a big amount of
plate appearances, a 32% strikeout rate, a sub-700 OPS. So while the power was okay, obviously
you wanted more, the speed was very good. Everything else was pretty bad. And obviously the
batting average was abysmal there. And I think we're left with even more questions.
on O'Neill Cruz than we are Ronald de Cunia.
Heading into next year, it's, you know, his,
can he hit lefties? He's been
awful against them in his career,
and now the strikeouts have continued to pile up as well.
So lots of questions on both of these guys,
but I think based on where they were drafted,
neither of them lived up to it.
Ronald de Cunia as like a third round pick,
and O'Neill Cruz actually right around that range as well.
Yeah, O'Neill Cruz definitely created
some major concerns moving forward
because we haven't seen much
improvement from him other than just improving the steel total, as you mentioned.
But as a hitter, there hasn't been the growth we wanted to see.
And he was an active detriment to your fantasy team from about May 1st on.
Yeah.
So much of his production came in April.
May 1st on, he hit 185 with the 614 OPS.
And so he's going, he's not going to have shortstop eligibility next year.
It's just going to be outfield.
and I don't think there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm
for drafting O'Neill Cruz
for really the first time in his major league career.
He's not going to be that trendy buzzworthy player
in the early rounds who's like,
okay, if he just does this, this, and this right,
he's a first round caliber player,
which might present a buying opportunity
because the upside hasn't changed.
I think it's just our confidence
in O'Neill Cruz ever reaching it, given the lack of progress so far,
given that he's now 27 years old.
I think it's fair to be skeptical.
I have him.
I've actually spent past couple days working on outfield rankings, very deep position, obviously.
Right now I have O'Neill Cruz 24th for Roto Leagues and 27th for points leagues.
What about the bus picks that we got most wrong?
Last week we started off the podcast talking about Pete Crow Armstrong,
which is just kind of the headliner here on this podcast.
The other one was Jacob de Grom, who we were all kind of fading.
And Scott, I think as we got closer to the season, you were more open to the idea of taking
de Grom with some of the reports and velocity being down on purpose.
But this one was pretty straightforward.
We all knew it came down to health with Jacob de Grom.
And he stayed healthy.
He threw 172 and two-thirds innings.
The first time he's even hit 100 innings since 2019.
And he was very good.
it was a 297 ERA, a 0.92 whip over a strikeout per inning.
He wasn't the dominant force that he once was,
but I think that kind of comes with the territory.
Him taking a little velocity off,
not being the true ace, you know,
top of the league type pitcher Jacob de Grom,
but still being an SP1 type with this slightly diminished velocity.
Yeah, so my case for DeGrom being a bust,
and I said multiple times leading up to the season,
And it was the bust pick I was most confident in.
And that's because he upped his velocity, beginning in 2020, after already winning two Cy Young Awards, he was back-to-back Cy Young winner.
And then he added a couple more miles per hour of velocity.
Okay, that's going to make him more dominant.
And it did on a per inning basis.
But I think the fact that he went four years throwing at that velocity,
falling short of 100 innings each time
showed that his body just could not hold up.
Like it would break.
It would break when he got that kind of force on it.
And so I just thought, okay, this is going to happen again.
He's shown that he cannot hold up to this velocity.
Something's going to happen again.
But then he came out and he was throwing his fastball
a couple miles per hour slower.
Took a little velocity.
And that is about the velocity Jacob de Grom sat at in those two Syung seasons.
The last time we saw him throw not just 100 innings, but 200 plus.
And, you know, by that point, the drafting was done.
Because I think this didn't come out until the season already started, right?
Or was it at the very end of spring training?
I think the season had already started.
It's like, what's wrong with Dick DeGrom's velocity?
And it's like, well, he's doing this intentionally.
He said it himself.
I think it wasn't spring training.
I think before the season, yeah.
Okay, okay.
And I did end up with one share of him in the podcast listeners league
because I at least became open to the possibility.
Well, if my argument for why DeGrom can't hold up is he,
it's always been the case since he started throwing harder.
Maybe not throwing is hard will allow him to hold up.
And that ended up being what happened.
So good on him for figuring that out
because it's rare that you see a pitcher give up velocity voluntarily.
these days, but he, obviously his two Syung seasons showed he, he would, that's all the
velocity he needed. No, on a per inning basis, he wasn't as dominant as from 2020 through
24, but I think we would all agree that the overall outcome in fantasy was, was better this way,
de Grom going 172 and two-thirds settings. Yeah, 100%. I mean, if we can get, you know, he's up there
an age. I think he's 36 or 37 years old or turning 37 this offseason. But if we can get,
you know, one or two more years of numbers kind of close to this over, you know, 150 to 170
innings, that would be a nice way for Jacob de Grom to kind of round out his career. So a very nice
bounce back for him. Other bus picks that we got most wrong, Scott, Bryce Terang. I mean, this one is just,
I think we were all kind of skeptical of the hitter, Bryce Terang, and he came out, you know, up the average
Jigsit velocity like crazy and just completely kind of changed his fantasy output this past season.
So a quick thought on Bryce Thring.
Yeah, I mean, that's the sort of bus pick.
I can't exactly regret because he just changed who he was.
He started hitting the ball three to four miles per hour harder, both on average.
And then you look at the max velocity of the increase was that much, was similar there for Bryce to rank.
So, you know, you can only go buy the data that's available to you.
and Bryce Durang just got better.
And we saw that power manifest especially in August
when he started hitting the ball
at the proper angles for home runs.
So that's kind of the next step for him,
I think, to sustain that
because he kind of went back to not pulling it in the air
so much in September.
But clearly, Terang hits the ball hard enough now
that he can be a power hitter.
And with the stolen base ability,
we know he has,
that could make for a very high-end outcome.
A couple preseason bus picks here that I got pretty wrong.
Jazz Chisholm, I was just worried about the injuries and the fact that you had to use a second or third round price tag on him.
The final ADP wound up being 21.8.
So yeah, pretty much a second round pick in most leagues.
He went 30, 30 despite missing a month out of the season.
And, you know, he's just been a much more impactful fantasy player since joining the Yankees about midseason in 2024.
So I don't really doubt the player.
I still have some questions about the injuries and things,
but for next season, he's entering a contract year.
Players find a way to stay on the field and do amazing things in contract years.
So I'm more open to the idea of using a second round pick on Jazzism in 26.
And with Robert Suarez of the Padres, yeah, I was completely out on this.
He had a lack of strikeouts.
He just relied heavily on the fastball.
He took a step back in the second half of the year before in 2024.
And there were really good relievers around him.
Actually, this was a bust case that I was pretty confident in.
I did not think it was going to work out for Roberts-Mores.
I think on the beat FBT team that we all did together,
we wound up taking him just because I think everyone felt the same way,
and he just lasted really long.
And he felt like the last kind of closer that had a job in that draft.
And so we took him and reap the rewards there.
but I felt like the bus case for him was actually pretty solid.
But to his credit, you know, he, I think he mixed up his pitch, makes a little bit more.
And he was one of, if not the most reliable closer and fantasy this past season.
So shout out to Robert Suarez.
And he has an opt out.
I'm pretty sure he'll do that and get paid by some other team.
And Mason Miller will either wind up being the closer or maybe a starter with someone else filling in as the closer for the Padres season.
This is like my biggest draft regret this year.
and there was one league late in draft season.
I was kind of the defender for Robert Suarez,
but it felt like it was us against the world.
Swaraz and I against the world in terms of still believing
he could hold on to the closer role.
And so one of my last drafts,
I just, I succumbed to the masses,
and I went against my own rankings,
took Jordan Romano
ahead of Robert Swarres.
And like I...
I'm sorry, I influenced you, Scott.
I mean, it wasn't just you.
Like, this was...
The way everybody was talking about Robert Suarez,
I just...
I'm pretty sure he looked bad in spring training, too.
Like, it was just compounding everything, yeah.
No, he was.
But, yeah, it just...
It was making too much of too little
was basically my argument at the time.
Yeah.
but everybody, everybody's got to be, you know, the smart guy who sees the unexpected thing happening.
And it got to a point where every, there was such consensus over this.
Oh, Robert Suarez is going to collapse that even though I was like, yeah, but there's a good chance he doesn't.
I ended up, you know, that's like, this is something I need to, because I talked about this with Pete Crow Armstrong a couple weeks ago too.
Like I need to get better at tuning out the voices, you know?
Yeah.
And it's tough, man.
It's loud in spring training.
It is loud.
I used to not follow any other fantasy baseball people on Twitter.
I used to just follow baseball writers, you know, to get.
It was basically a news feed for me, right?
That's what I had set up.
But then I started following other.
fantasy baseball people.
And it's too much.
I hear too much of what other people are thinking.
It clouds my own judgment.
And maybe I need to start unfollowing people.
I don't know.
They probably want to appreciate that much.
But it's too much.
I can't handle it.
Big thanks to those watching live.
Make sure to hit that like button and subscribe for more fantasy baseball content
all offseason long.
We appreciate you being here watching live and or on demand.
However, you are listening or consuming this.
Let's take a break.
We'll be back.
We'll hit some quick news and then we'll draft the first two rounds for next season.
We'll do that right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball today before we hit the news and notes.
An update on game one of the NLCS.
The Dodgers did close it out, but man, that was a closed game.
Roki Sasaki came in with a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning.
He gave up a run.
There was bases loaded.
And Blake Trinan actually struck out Bryce's rank to end that game.
The Dodgers up.
one zip on the Brewers, but I have a feeling
that's a series that could go
pretty long there in the NLCS.
Let's run through some news and notes.
Not too much going on here, but we did get some big
news out of nowhere Monday afternoon.
Mike Schilt announced his retirement
after his second season as the Padres
manager, obviously did a pretty good job with the Padres, not
good enough. They weren't able to
go that deep into the postseason while
he was there, but that now makes eight
total managerial openings this offseason.
The Padres Angels
Giants, Orioles, Braves, Twins, Nationals, and Rockies.
Both Bo Bouchette and Brandon Woodruff were both unavailable for the championship series
rosters, their respective rosters.
Bichette is still dealing with that knee injury, Brandon Woodruff dealing with a lat
injury.
Brian Wu did make the Mariners ALCS roster is expected to pitch at some point in that
series.
He last pitched on Friday, September 19th due to a pectoral strain.
Tanner Scott was removed from the Dodgers NLDS roster
was not included on the championship series roster.
Turns out that he had surgery to remove an abscess from his lower body.
Dave Roberts said they hope,
the hope is that Tanner Scott could be available for the World Series
if they make it that far.
It's a very vague injury.
We didn't get many details in terms of what's going on here.
Just some kind of abscess removed for Tanner Scott.
No surprise, but Cody Bellen,
will opt out and become a free agent this off season.
Nathan Ovaldi underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia.
Speaking of which, it turns out Glaver Torres also needs surgery for a hernia.
He said it's been bothering him for about a month.
And Glaber really faded in the second half, Scott.
We didn't talk too much about that in season.
He had the great first half, you know, hit 281, 812 OPS, second half,
223 with a 659 OPS.
So I think most of that was him just regressing and coming back to the player that we know Glaver Torres is.
Perhaps part of it was him playing through this injury and now he needs hernia surgery in the offseason.
Braves beatwriter Mark Bowman expects Hassan Kim to decline his $6 million player option with the Braves.
16, yes.
And this is something you've kind of been all over, Sky.
You said the shortstop market is not great.
And, you know, this was always a possibility that Hassan Kim could become a free agent.
It hasn't happened yet, but speculation that it will.
Yeah, I could see it going either way.
I mean, obviously, after the year, Kim just had $16 million is a lot.
But shortstop is a premium position that's difficult to fill.
And if there's more than two teams that need one, because we're assuming,
we're presuming Trevor Stoyops out of the rest of his deal with the Red Sox,
so it would be him and Bo Bouchette.
If there are more than two teams, which you would imagine there are, looking for a shortstop, then yeah, Kim could probably get a multi-year deal averaging about $16 million per even having.
Even after having such a bad performance.
And the last news item I have here, Jordan Lawler and Carter Jensen will both play Winterball in the Dominican Republic.
Some big name prospects there, Jordan Lawler, still learning other positions there with Geraldo Perdomo.
just fully locked in as the D-back shortstop for now.
So between second base, third base,
I think Jordan Lawler will try to lock down
some of those positions this offseason.
And Carter Jensen, who finished the season
very strong with the Royals,
a way too early, maybe sleeper candidate,
both those guys going out to play
some winter ball in the Dominican Republic.
All right, Scott, let's get those wheels turning for 2026
by drafting the first two rounds.
We'll be doing this for a Roto,
Clash Categories League, but we could provide some commentary on head-to-head points leagues as well.
No Chris, unfortunately, but we will just alternate picks here, Scott.
We'll go back and forth, get through the first two.
You are up. You're on the clock.
First overall pick.
It's Aaron Judge.
It's to me as clear of a number one overall pick is we've had in a while.
I mean, obviously, O-Tani.
They're kind of one-in-one-A, I guess.
but now that Otani doesn't have the big steals advantage that it was really just the one year where he stole a ridiculous number of bases.
And it was a year where he didn't have to worry about pitching at all, 2024.
But now that he's back to pitching, he kind of stopped doing that so much.
Meanwhile, Judge, not only is he historically great power hitter, a guy who's hit 50 plus homers three of the past four seasons now and was on pace to do it each of the last four seasons.
It's just one of those years he missed some time with injury.
So not only is he that, but he's become maybe the top bet for batting average as well.
He's like Luis Arise with 50 plus homers.
It's crazy.
Yeah, because he just won a batting title hitting 331 after hitting 322 last year,
and the year he hit 62 home runs, 311.
So he's hit not only is he hit 50 plus homers three of the last four years,
but the same three of the last four, he's hit 310 or better.
It's just, it's hard to find a bank.
surefire 300 hitter to begin with, but particularly one who, you know, just so happens to be the best power hitter in the game, too.
A quick follow-up here. If Judge has off-season surgery on this elbow flexor thing that's going on, would he remain your top pick for next season?
Yeah. Yeah. I don't look, it's possible. It's possible that it compromises him as a hitter, but I don't think we usually see that with elbow injuries.
And it would be surgery to correct an injury he was playing through.
And we just saw.
We just saw Atani do this last year, right?
Yeah.
Well, Otani's was a shoulder, so that was more concerning.
But, well, no, I'm talking about the year prior he had Tommy John surgery, signed with the Dodgers, and then had the 50-50 season, right?
Okay.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Right.
Tony's crazy, man.
Never underestimate Otani, which I guess I am by putting Aaron Judge ahead of him.
But anytime you doubt Otony.
he seems to find a way to get even better.
Anyway, who are you taking with the second pick, Frank?
We will doubt him no longer, Scott,
because Show-Hautani is the second overall pick.
No surprise here.
Back-to-back-50 home-run seasons here.
54-plus homers in back-to-back seasons.
He's had 130-plus run scored in back-to-back years.
Yes, some things came down,
the batting average and the steals.
Obviously, we expected the steals to come down
as he was ramping back up as a pitcher and all that.
batting average came down, but still hit 282, provided 20 steals.
It's just across the board production.
He has posted an OPS over 1,000, three straight years.
And in leagues where you can reap the rewards of both his hitter and pitcher production,
he should be the first overall player in those leagues.
And he reminded us of his talent as a pitcher as well.
287 ERA, a 104 whip, nearly 12K per 9.
He did that in 14 starts and has gone 60s.
innings in back-to-back starts his final regular season outing and then his first
outing of the postseason as well. We'll also have a full season of Otani pitching next year,
presumably. We hope that would be the case. Does that take anything else away from his hitting
now that we get a full season as a pitcher again, you know, expose him to a little bit more injury
to either of those things were you at all for Otani? No. I mean, he was rehabbing as a pitcher
basically all of this year.
Obviously, we've seen him
pitch and hit at the same time before
and he's still performed
at an MVP level.
So the decline in steals,
as I already mentioned when I was talking about,
Judge, the decline in steals
from Motani to 59,
from 59 is how many he had in
2024 to, let's see, this year
it was 20, 59 to 20.
And I attribute that to him
returning to pitch.
but it's already happened.
So I think you can still pencil them into 15 to 20 steals.
And as a hitter, it just seems to keep getting better and better as a hitter.
All right, Scott, over to you for the third pick.
So this is, I think, the first tough call.
About three ways you could go here probably,
particularly if you're playing the position scarcity game.
But I'm not.
I'm going with part of what was the trifecta,
that the three people competing for the first overall pick him into
2024.
Now, though, Bobby Witt is the clear number three coming off.
What was the first misstep, I guess?
The first step back in his young career.
He had gotten better each year until kind of getting a little worse this year.
Mainly that's in terms of home run production.
He dropped from 32 home runs to 2024 to 23 this year.
It's just a disappointing number for as high as he was drafted.
It would be disappointed.
it would be disappointing if he did it again
as the third overall pick next year.
But I don't see a lot of reason to believe
that it's like the new baseline for him.
Basically, his underlying data remained unchanged.
So I think it was just kind of one of those things that happened,
his home run production dropping from 32 to 23,
and everything else was great.
He still seems like the safest bet in the entire player pool
to deliver plus.
production in all five rotisserie categories. So I think Bobby Witt is the right choice
the third overall. Yeah, that's who I would take as well. The batting average is still
great. The steals actually went up, which I guess in a down season, that's kind of the glass
half full. The one shining moment is that the steals went up here to 38 for Bobby Witt.
So we need the power to bounce back a little bit. The counting stats were down. I mean, I guess some of that
could be blamed on the team around him with the Kansas City Royals.
But overall, at his age 225, it just, you don't have to really even squint to see him
kind of getting back on track and having another monster season next season.
Again, that was Bobby Witt, Jr.
Fourth overall pick goes to me.
And, yeah, I think there's two clear players that I would be choosing from here.
And I'm going to go with Juan Soto, though I don't really know what to expect for next season.
He just finishes the fourth overall player in Roto,
the third best player in Head-Ted Points Leagues,
broke out of nowhere with a near 40-40 season.
So, 43 home runs, which was a career high for Soto.
The counting stats are great every single year.
38 steals.
He had, I believe, seven the year prior.
His career high was 12 before that.
He had a total of 34 steals in his previous four seasons combined.
entering 2025, 34 steals, and then went out and had 38 in this season alone.
So obviously there are rules to promote steals the past couple of seasons.
We hadn't seen Soto kind of take advantage of that.
There was a lot of credit given to the Mets and their coaching staff,
their first base coach who kind of helped coach up Soto and getting jumps
and obviously being more aggressive on the base paths this year.
But even if the steals come down, which I expect them to, right?
like if I had to project right now,
I would probably expect like 15 to 20 for next season.
It's back-to-back seasons with 40 plus homers,
120 plus runs,
105 plus RBI.
Yeah,
we would like to see more batting average out of Soto.
I have reason to expect, like,
it will get better just because he's such a ridiculously good hitter.
But even if he does it,
like if he hits around 270 with 40 homers, 15 steals,
awesome counting stats,
he's totally worthy of a top five pick.
Yeah, I think the justification for taking him here is, okay, maybe the steals come down.
Maybe they don't, by the way.
Yeah.
Because it does seem like he became an effective base dealer.
He'd never been a fast runner, Juan Soto, but he had been ranking in the bottom of third of the league in sprint speed.
So this was actually his slowest year, just in terms of sprint speed 13th percentile.
But he stole 38 bases because he got better as a base stealer.
So I would expect him to have less than fewer than 38 steals next year.
How much fewer?
I don't know.
But he gave us probably his lowest case outcome for batting average at 263.
So even if he gives back some of the steals, you would expect them to gain some in batting average.
And of course, in the other three categories, he's a monster.
So I think fourth overall in Roto in points leagues.
you know, put him ahead of Bobby Witt.
He's third overall because the plate discipline obviously does want so to a lot of favors there.
All right, Scott, over to you for the fifth pick.
Fifth pick, I'm going to go Jose Ramirez.
He's the other one we've been hinting at.
And this seems like a very clear top five.
You know, maybe Jose Ramirez gets some bonus points for playing third base,
which is one of the weakest positions.
He's far and away number one there.
I feel like, but just so bankable.
from year to year, keeps getting better as a base stealer.
He set a career high last year, set it again this year.
30-30, if not 30-40, producer with a solid batting average
and counting stats where you want them to base.
So Jose Ramirez, fifth overall.
One of the most consistent players.
He's finished as a top six player four of the past five years.
Jose Ramirez, the batting average between 279 and 283, four years in a row.
He's gotten 30-40 in back-to-back years.
So he's getting a little bit older.
you know, he's low 30s in terms of age,
but he doesn't show any signs of slowing down.
So I totally agree that that should be the top five
in some order for next season.
Now you get the first tough pick, Frank.
Yeah, I think things really open up here at pick six.
And this might surprise you a little bit, Scott,
but I'm going with the player that I think is the most bankable at six.
I think all the other players that I would consider here
all kind of have some wart.
the only word for this player
is that he's a pitcher.
So I'm going to go with Terrick Scoobled
6th overall here
because to me he's just about
as bankable as they come.
Now he's a pitcher
and obviously that comes with
a ton of risk.
Pitchers aren't bankable.
Yes.
But in terms of just production
and what we've seen
from Terik Scoobel two years in a row,
my guess is going to be a back-to-back
A.L. Syung Award winner
just finished as the SP1 in Roto.
He was the SP2 in Points Leagues,
but the skills actually somehow got better
after a Syung season in 20,
221, ERA, 0.89 whip, 11K per 9.
His swinging strike rate went up.
He was ridiculous in the postseason as well.
He had two starts with 13 or more strikeouts.
So he is just very clearly to me the best pitcher in baseball.
And while all pitchers come with risk,
he to me feels like the next most bankable player.
So I am ranking him as my sixth overall player for now.
Maybe that changes in the offseason.
but yeah, I'm going with Terrick Scoobel at number six.
So I actually have the top three pitchers higher in my rankings than I've ranked pitchers in recent years
because I do think it is such a clear top three.
Terrick Scoople, obviously, the first of those three.
But I do have a few hitters ahead of him.
Scoob's my ninth ranked player.
So you took them at sixth, which means I am going to take this next player seventh overall.
and I'm going to go with Ronald de Cunia,
who obviously had a disappointing year.
You talked about it earlier on the podcast.
But as a hitter, he was great.
It was really just he stopped running so much.
And I'll remind you coming back from the last time he tore an ACL
in the opposite knee,
torn ACL.
He came back the following year,
and it was rough for Ronald de Cunia in a lot of ways.
I thought there was more reason to be concerned about his future then than there is the way he performed coming off the second torn ACL.
But you and Chris both came around to the idea of drafting a Kunya number one overall following that really concerning return from a torn ACL.
And you were drafting them number one overall ahead of the record setting Aaron Judge.
You're just going off the 62 homer season.
And I thought you were crazy, but you ended up being right
because Ronald de Cunia went on to have maybe the best fantasy season all time
for the 40 Homer 70 Steel season.
So I guess I'm taking a page from your book,
only taking up seventh here, so not being nearly as aggressive,
but being aggressive maybe compared to what most people's instincts would tell them to be
and just saying, okay, he's had a year,
first year back from torn ACL was a little less than full capacity,
but now that he's, you know, it's going to be a full year removed from it,
we expect him to get back to doing Ronald de Kuni things.
So, yeah, I think seventh overall is where I,
sixth overall, actually, because I take him out of scuba.
Yeah.
So I actually have gone the other way so far.
And again, this can change in the off season.
I just kind of ranked my first two rounds earlier.
And I had Akunia come in at 11 here.
And that's me just kind of, I guess,
playing it safe. You know, there's
an extra torn ACL in the book. He dealt with, you know, some
Achilles tendon inflammation
in August of this past season. He's just dealt with a lot of lower body
injuries and I don't
think he's going to get back to running the way he used to. I could be
proven wrong by that, but this is just kind of, I guess, me playing
it safe this early in the off season and see kind of
what we learn and how he looks, I guess,
in spring training of next year. For what it's worth, he didn't lose any
sprint speed coming back from the second torn ACL. Sprint speed came in exactly the same as the
previous two years, including the 70 steel season. So that doesn't, you know, sprint speed doesn't
determine how much you choose to run, but I think I'll run more. I don't think I'll steal 70 bases again,
but I think we'll see him get back to 30 plus. All right. So the top seven picks so far, we had Judge
Otani, Bobby Witt Jr., Soto, Jose Ramirez, Terrick Scouble, and Ronald Acuna. Let's take
our final break when we return.
We'll finish out the first round.
We'll get into the second round.
We'll do all that right after this.
Welcome back in fantasy baseball.
Today we're drafting the first two rounds for 2026.
We left off with Ronald O'Cuna as the seventh overall pick.
I am up at eight and I am going to go with Corbyn Carroll,
who this past season 30-30-year career high, 31 homers,
batting average bounce back here,
just a bounce-back season overall here for Corby and Carroll.
he ran a ton more in the second half.
We'd always thought it was weird that he had only 11 steals in the first half,
just given how fast he is.
I mean, you watch Corbyn Carroll, and he's one of the fastest players in baseball,
had 21 steals in the second half.
The XBA suggests maybe, you know,
there's a little bit more batting average upside,
but he's a career 258 hitter.
I would expect something around there for Carol.
So it's 260, 25 to 30 homers, 30 to 40 steals,
good counting stats.
And, you know, outside of that little blip that we got with the shoulder a couple of years ago,
I pretty much trust Corby and Carroll as a mid to late first round player at this point.
So he checks in at number eight.
And Scott over to you for pick number nine.
I actually rank this guy ahead of Carol.
It's Kyle Tucker, who obviously was banged up in the second half and fell off from the MVP pace he was on.
But you look at his final numbers.
136 games, 266 batting average, 22 homers, 25 steals, an 841 OPS.
I think he is better than Carroll in terms of batting average expectations.
Certainly the plate discipline's better.
So it's an easier call to make in points leagues Kyle Tucker ahead of Corbyn Carroll.
It's a toss-up for me in Roto.
I think if you wanted to play it safe because Tucker's missed some time with injuries the past two years.
Okay, maybe that makes them a little safer than.
Carol, but I don't think it's, I don't think it's the kind of injuries that I worry about having
a lingering effect for Tucker.
It was a broken bone, right?
That cost him most of the time in 2024.
Yeah, it was a, I think, a fracture in his shin.
And then he actually kind of had a weird thing play out this year, too, where it was a
hairline fracture in his right hand that they didn't reveal until months later when he was
struggling through it.
Right.
He was playing through it.
And that helped to drive down the,
numbers, which again looked even better.
As good as they ended up being, they were similar to Carol if you paced them out over the same
number of games.
But that was with him having his numbers dragged down by playing through injury.
So still in the prime of his career, obviously going a free agent this off season.
I think that'll actually help because Kyle Tucker's numbers at Wrigley Field were pretty bad.
Unless he goes back to Chicago, of course.
Yeah.
But even then, I mean, I like what he did his first year.
with the Cubs well enough.
Just hope for better health this time.
Yeah, it does feel like everything was kind of derailed
by that hairline fracture in his right hand.
The first three months for Tucker, he was cruising.
291 batting average, 17 homers, 20 steals,
a 931 OPS, one of the best players in fantasy.
Final three months when he was playing through
some of those injuries, 225 with five homers,
five steals, a 690 OPS.
So a far cry from the player he was earlier in the season.
I think he's a good bet to go 20.
2525. I agree the batting average will be better than Carol. I also agree. I think it's kind of a toss-up
between those two. All right. Next up for me, we have the 9th, 10th overall pick in this one.
I am going to go with Julio Rodriguez. For those watching, you see the Mariners jersey here on display.
Finishes the 13th overall player in Roto. Actually, the 11th best hitter in head-toad points,
which surprised me a little bit. It's not like the plate discipline got better. But, you know,
did the thing again, slow start for J-Rod, then,
really picked things up in July. He wound up hitting 267, 32 homers, 30 steals, right around 100,
100 in terms of runs and RBI. He, I think he's a pretty safe floor too. He's gone 2020 in all four
seasons. He's gone 25, 25, 25, and 3 of 4. He's gone 30, 30, and 204. So I don't know,
based on what we've seen so far, if there really is that massive upside for J-Rod, unless he just
stops getting off to these slow starts and just does it all season long.
But we have enough of a track record to kind of, you know, expect this,
which is still a very good player.
And I think a late first round pick there with J. Rod.
So he's the number 10 picks.
Got over to you for number 11.
Well, I'm going to go with Garrett Crochet.
So you have the number one starting pitcher ranked a little higher than me.
And I guess I have the number two starting pitcher ranked a little higher than you.
Because for me, Scoobel and Crochet are inseparable.
So if Judge and Otani are 1 in 1A in the overall rankings, then I think Scoobel and Crochet are 1 in 1A at the starting pitcher rankings because they were as close as it gets, I feel like in the year they just had.
And obviously it met our expectations for both, our best expectations for both.
Crochet actually was the better strikeout pitcher of the two in 2025.
So I think he's just as much of a impactful league-winning type of starting pitcher as Scoobel is,
and I will take him here at 11th.
I have absolutely no issue with that.
I have Crochet at 13, so just a little bit lower.
I guess the difference is Scobel has done it for one extra season than Crochet has done,
but it's not me doubting Crochet.
I completely buy it, and I think he's in this mix here as a borderline first-round pick.
So that was the number 11 players, so rounding out.
the first round. I am going to go
with Francisco Lindor
which might surprise some people here.
I have Lindor a little bit ahead of
Ellie De La Cruz. Lindor to me is just
again, I'm shooting for
consistency and floor I guess
in the early rounds here. And
he just finished 12th overall in Roto.
He has finished as a top 12 player
four years in a row. Between 8 and 12
overall each of those four years.
He just hit 31 homers with 31
steals, 117
runs scored a career high.
Pretty much would expect that with Juan Soto
hitting behind him again next season.
If you look at Lindor's
average season over the past four years,
265, 31 homers,
110 runs, 30 steals.
Just incredibly consistent.
So I'm going to take him here
at number 12 overall.
And Scott, we are into the second round.
Pick 13, you're up.
Yeah, this would never happen at 12 or 13
because obviously it's the same team
taking these.
players. You took Lindor. I will take Ellie De La Cruz. Well, I actually rank ahead of
Lindor in this scoring format. I have Lindor ahead in points leagues. You're taking all the safe
guys, so I'm left to dig all the risky guys, I guess. L.A. De La Cruz, sort of like Kyle Tucker,
horrible second half. Also like Kyle Tucker, it seems like he was playing through an injury,
in his case of quad injury, that Terry Frank Conner revealed early on in August, and
Ellie DeL. DeL. De La Cruz kept playing, kept not performing very well.
But, you know, this was a guy who was being drafted top six coming into 2024.
And so I think getting him here at 13, obviously expect him to be fully healthy at the start of next year.
He was great in the first half, made some of the strides we wanted to see from him as a hitter, namely cutting down on the strikeouts.
I don't think we'll see him get back to 60 steals like we saw in 2024 because Terry Francona,
has kind of de-emphasized being aggressive for steals.
But I do think Ellie De La Cruz, if he's healthy, if he's performing all year,
you can pencil him in for 40 to go along with 25 homers.
That would obviously merit taking him here early in round two.
Yeah, and I think it's a flip of the coin, too, between him and Lindor.
If you wanted to shoot for more upside, I can totally see Ellie's steals bouncing back a little bit.
I think we both agree he's not going to get back to 66.
but I could see him pushing 50 steals.
He's still fast enough, athletic enough,
and he improved as a hitter this year.
The strikeouts came down.
I think just kind of a base median expectation for Ellie
is 260 batting average, 25-ish home runs,
and 40 to 50 steals.
I think he still has actually upside
to be a little bit better than that as well.
I mean, that's basically who he was this year.
A little shy of 25 homers,
a little shy of 40 steals,
got the 260 batting average.
And that was with a dreadful second half.
So, yeah, I think if you're setting that as the baseline,
you can be pleasantly surprised if he does surpass it.
And Chris has brought this up a few times as well.
I mean, dealt with just a traumatic life event.
You know, his sister passing away in the middle of the season.
And obviously, you know, human dealing with something, you know,
that massive off the field as well, along with, it sounds like this quad injury.
It kind of, there are a.
reasons to kind of see here why Ellie had the down second half here in 2025.
So that was the 13th overall player.
We're up to the second pick of round two.
And that is going to be Paul Skeens for me.
So again, I think he's kind of right in the same mix as Garrett Crochet.
The way you feel about Crochet and Scoobel Scott is how I feel about crochet and skeins.
Like once one goes off the board, I kind of feel like the next one.
should just go off the board between those two.
And very clearly, those three are just the top three starting pictures and fantasy for next year.
Insane, insane numbers and ratios for Paul Skeens.
Erily similar to his rookie season.
I mean, if you look at what he did, it was a 197 ERA.95 whip this year.
His rookie season, 196 ERA.95 whip.
So we basically have two years worth of data of this just being Paul Skeens.
The biggest drawback for him is that he had just 10 wins
thanks to a obviously pretty bad pirates team here this past season.
And I'll just throw this out there.
I think there's a non-zero chance that some team offers the pirates a godfather
offer this off season and Paul Skeens gets traded.
I know it's still like early on and his team control and everything,
but the pirates are so bad and they have so many holes on their team
that if you can get a
Juan Soto-esque offer
like what the
Padres gave up to get Juan Soto
from the Nationals back in the day
for Paul Skeens,
I think it's something that they should look into
and actually consider doing.
So I would not be surprised.
I think they should.
Like if they're not going to
use this opportunity with Paul Skeens
to bolster their roster,
maybe push the limits of their budget
in a way they rarely do,
then they should.
just offload him for a massive package
because you never know how long he's going to
stay healthy and at the top of his game like this.
But I don't think they will.
But you're right that they should.
If they're not going to try,
they should cash in.
So that would be nice because that is the main reason
why Skeens is the clear third.
For me,
of those three is he pitches for the Pirates.
He also doesn't quite measure up to crochet
and scoble in terms of strikeouts.
He's still great for strikeouts, but they're on another level.
But yeah, the clear top three, I'd be happy to take any of them at the point they're likely to go.
And it's going to be a long time before I consider taking the number four starting pitcher, whoever it ends up being for me.
All right.
We are up to the third pick of round two, and Scott is back to you.
Okay.
This might be the most controversial one so far, but I'm going with Kyle Schwerber here.
He will no longer have outfield eligibility.
So he's occupying your DH spot.
I don't think there are, I guess there's Christian Yellich.
He's going to be DH only.
I guess there's Jordan Alvarez.
He's going to be DH only.
But I'm not going to worry so much about that at this point.
Because I think by getting Kyle Schwerber here almost halfway through round two,
you're getting such a good value, such a.
consistent standout in home runs, runs in RBI,
and now not such a liability in batting average
his first couple years in Philly.
It was, you know, he was hitting around 200.
It wasn't great, but he's gotten back on track
more like a 240 hitter the past couple years,
and that's what he used to be before going to Philly.
So I think he's a three-category monster
and frankly, categories that need to be filled early on
without really harming you in batting average.
She's a free agent as well.
It'd be great if he went back to Philly,
but I think even if he doesn't,
his power would play anywhere.
He'd still bat high in the lineup.
I think it's time to stop downgrading Kyle Schwerber
and just take his numbers,
take his numbers where they deserve to go,
which I think is this early.
Yeah, I have him down at 20th overall,
but I can't really argue against taking him this early.
You mentioned, I mean, the runs in RBI in particular,
has, Swarber has averaged
215 runs plus RBI per season
over the last four years.
I mean, that is just incredible
track record inconsistency there
from Kyle Schwaber.
The big question, obviously, like, yes,
free agent, he's also turning 33.
You're buying off of a career year,
so I don't typically like doing that,
but I'd be more likely to take him
in like the late second round.
And if it's a points league, Scott,
I think he's like a first round pick.
Yeah, I have them as first round in points leagues as well.
All right, so next up, that's going to be the fourth pick of round two.
That's pick 16.
We're only fourth picks into round two.
I said it was almost halfway through.
Yeah, yeah, we got to pick things up a little bit here.
But I will take Fernando Tatis Jr. here as the 16th overall player.
He stayed healthy for a full season.
It was a very good one.
I think some people thought it could be better if he ever managed to stay healthy.
but 268, 25 homers, 111 runs scored, 32 steals, 155 games, a career high here for Fernando Tateis,
the best plate discipline of his career as well.
So, you know, I still think there's a little bit more that we can squeeze out of Tate's here,
but this was still a great season for him, and I think he's totally worthy of being an early to mid-second round pick.
and he's actually kind of become better in a points league,
which is weird to say.
Yeah,
because the play discipline improved.
I do rank Fernando Tatis higher in points leagues.
He's another one where the addition of pull air rate
on a player's baseball savant page kind of open my eyes
to what's been going on with Tatis consistently underperforming his expected stats.
He did again in 2025.
It's just not a very good pull air rate.
Yeah.
And so I don't think you can pencil it.
in for 30 homers in the way you'd like an early rounder to be.
I do have him in my second round, but I have him a few picks later than you do because
I think we just need to start taking his numbers at face value and stop expecting him to
be a little bit better than he was because the expected stats say he should have been.
Yeah, yeah, totally agree with that.
And I think a theme that we'll see here is I kind of play more into like the power and speed
combinations and you're just kind of like, hey, give me the most bankable stats that you could
possibly get. And you see that in Kyle Schwerber. And I don't know, maybe with your next pick, too.
I don't know who it is, but we'll find out right now. The fifth pick of round two,
17th overall. I wouldn't mind taking this guy ahead of Schorber for positional reasons.
It's Cal Raleigh. Mr. Mariners jersey over there, Cal Raleigh.
You'll probably never have a year as good as the one he just had again because it was historic
in so many ways. But he was way, way, way ahead of every other.
catcher.
And you know the playing time is going to remain what it is because of his defense.
It's always been that good.
He's always had a playing time advantage at the position, which has given an advantage in
the counting stats.
It's just whether he lives up to this second round pick, you know, how many home run
does you lose from 60?
Does he go back to hitting mid-30s?
Probably be a stretch to take him here, but I don't think a disaster.
And, you know, there's a lot of places that home run,
total could fall between 35 and 60.
That would make Cal Raleigh absolutely worth taking here.
He was arguably the most valuable player in fantasy this past year.
Yeah, he finished second overall in Roto.
He was the fourth best hitter in Head-Tead points leagues.
That's with an ADP around, I think it was 80-ish coming into the season.
So to provide that much value, he was one of the most valuable players.
The question is, how much will Cal Raleigh regress?
But obviously, just coming off an insane MVP-worthy season.
And in case you're wondering how he did it,
he leaned into pulling the ball in the air even more.
It was 38% pulled air rate there for Cal Raleigh,
which just allowed him to completely maximize his power potential this past season.
So that was Scott's pick there at the fifth pick of round two.
That was pick 17.
So the sixth pick of round two,
I am going to go with, who's my next player,
Jackson Trio, who eerily similar rookie and sophomore seasons,
He was limited to just 131 games due to a strained right hamstring that caused him to miss a month.
But when he played, he hit 270, 21 home runs, 21 steals.
Counting stats were okay.
He's a very aggressive hitter at the plate.
He doesn't walk very much.
He also doesn't strike out very much.
Scott, the skill set reminds me a lot of Julio Rodriguez, who we spoke about a little bit earlier.
And I still think Churio could get even better.
I mean, he's only, I think he's 21 years older.
He's turning 22 in March of next year,
and he obviously plays for a great Brewer's team.
So I would, assuming health,
just kind of pencil him in for like 25, 25 next year.
And if he gets better,
I think he can just be like a 30-30 bat
as soon as next season with a 260, 270-ish batting average.
And that's very similar to Julio Rodriguez.
So I think trio is like an early to mid-second round player again.
I have more like a late second rounder.
I described it in my articles.
He's about 85% of what Julio Rodriguez is young enough that he could get better.
He really doesn't hit the ball that hard.
Yeah, that part of it is weird.
But, you know, he's young enough that that could improve.
I think Churio will be a hard sell here because it feels like he disappointed.
But he basically had the exact same season he had as a rookie.
We were just expecting improvement.
expecting his second half numbers from his rookie season to translate over a full season,
and that didn't happen.
And if he didn't miss a month, I think he probably comes close to going 25, 25.
But, you know, when you factor that in, you know, that's why the numbers look pretty similar
to his rookie season.
So, yeah, I will be happy to take Churio in this range of category league next season.
He is a name that in points leagues will drop down a little bit, probably more like a third
or maybe even fourth round pick there with Churio in a points league.
All right, Scott, over to you, seventh pick of round two.
Yeah, so our approaches here.
Again, I'm going to like power in speed and you're just like, hey, give me all the power I can possibly get.
Yeah, so this is going to look a little funny the way we're kind of ping ponging back and forth between the approaches here in round two because I'm going Nick Kurtz.
It's between him and another young player at a corner infield position, Junior Commonero, plays the weaker position actually.
but I prefer Kurtz because I trust him more.
I think he's a more well-rounded hitter.
It'd be easier to say that if his strikeout rate wasn't pushing 30%.
That does give me pause because you know I don't like high strikeout rates.
I never have.
But anywhere he's played, it hasn't seemed to matter.
I mean, he's just been a monster.
took all of 33 games in the minors to force his way to the majors.
And after a couple weeks adjustment period,
he became a monster there too.
So,
and that was as a 22-year-old rookie.
I think even if he doesn't improve,
he's worth this spot.
And if he does improve,
I don't even know how high the upside could be for Nick Kurtz
because he's already so good.
Yeah, he's going to be a polarizing player for sure.
I have him a little bit lower.
I have him at 22 overall,
also more like a late second round pick.
Worried about the strikeout rate,
but I mean, what he did as a rookie man,
290, 36 home runs.
His full season pace, 49 homers,
124 runs, 119 RBI for Nick Kurtz.
We spoke about this in season.
His K rate did improve in August.
It was like 26%.
But then in September,
it went all the way back up to 35%.
So, yeah, just...
September was like his one bad month.
Yeah, a little bit worried about the strikeout rate.
And what the...
batting average could turn out to be, but I totally trust the power. I think Nick Kurtz is hitting
40 home runs next year with honestly the upside to push 50 as soon as next year. He did hit 290
is where it actually ended up with even with it lagging some in September. And the XBA was
255 too, so not that I want to put too much into that. It's like when we have a player this good,
this young, I actually take expected stats a little bit lesser for just a free.
athlete of a freak prospect like this is because you know I don't really want to
doubt what they just did but you know when you consider the the strikeouts and
things I think there is a little bit of batting average risk risk there with
Nick Kurtz so to continue our trend here Scott the eighth pick of round two I'm
gonna go back to the the the power and speed and a bit of a bounceback candidate
here I am not taking junior Kemen era I'm actually gonna go with Gunner Henderson
so I kind of feel like this injury that he suffered right
before the season just kind of threw everything off.
There are no quotes to back that up.
He didn't blame it on that.
Nobody in the Orioles front off is blamed it on that.
But it just seems to make sense, right?
Like, a guy this good, this young,
I don't think he just kind of falls off that quickly out of nowhere.
So obviously the home runs went from 37 to 17.
You know, the batting average was still similar.
The steals actually went up to 30.
I'm kind of expecting something similar to,
Centurio. I think the bounce back for Gunner Henderson is I'd expect something like
25, 25, 270, 275 batting average. And again, that's just kind of my baseline expectation.
He could be even better than that, as young as he is. And I expect the Orioles team to bounce
back in general next season as well. So I'm a little bit, I think I'm going to be a little bit
higher on Gunner Henderson. I have him as a mid-second round pick here, taking him with the
eighth pick of round two, back over to you for
pick nine round two
I think I have him as my eighth
pick in round two also Henderson
it's just
you've taken some players I have
ranked after him ahead of them
but anyway we feel the same way about Gunner
Henderson so junior
common arrows my next pick since it was between
him and perks for my last
comedy
all right I'm done
third base is a position
you should prioritize
early to a degree
you obviously don't want to
reach, but when in doubt, it's a position you want to prioritize because it gets ugly fast.
I think the only other position, the only position that out does it in that regard is second base.
Junior Commonero is clearly number two coming off a 45 homer season as a 22 year old, right?
Yeah, living up to the billing as an elite hitting prospect.
And I guess the one concern is that sounds like the rays are going to be back at Tropicana Field.
Yeah.
And that has been, it's, you know, the backdrop, some hitters have complained about it.
It's been a difficult place for some players to hit.
But we have no evidence that Combinero is going to be one of those players.
And I don't worry about the homeway splits because the home run were dead even.
So I don't think it's a big deal.
you know, he just looks like a stud.
Yeah, this is another one, just like Nick Kurtz,
where maybe I should just take at face value
what these young stud prospects did
in their first full seasons.
But the reasons you mentioned, you know,
I do worry a little bit more about what he did on the road
this season when he hit 218 with a 743 OPS.
And if you look at Park Factor,
Steinbrenner Field this year,
where Camerero crushed it,
that ballpark was 10th in,
overall park factor, seventh in home run
park factor. Tropicana Field, the three years prior,
29th in overall park factor,
18th in home run factor. So it just adds a variable
and element that I wish wasn't there
for Junior Camerreau going into next season, but
I still pretty much think he's going to be awesome.
Unlike Kurtz, no strikeout problems for Common Arrow. It's worth
pointing out. He struck out less than 20% of the time.
Yep. All right, the 10th pick of round two here.
I'm going to go with Jazz Chisholm, who I spoke about earlier.
Again, just looking for that power and speed.
He went 30-30 despite missing a month of the season,
and he's entering a contract year somehow, some way.
Lots of people, hitters, find a way to stay healthy in a contract year.
And the talent here is evident with Jazz,
who really has taken full advantage of the short portion in right field
in Yankee Stadium and has kind of tailored his swing to that approach.
So if, if, it's a big if, jazz could stay healthy for like 150 plus games,
he could go 35, 35.
He could push 40-40.
I don't think that's outside the realm of possibility here.
All right, Scott, your last pick and the second's last pick of round two?
Trey Turner.
Yep.
Just, we know who Trey Turner is.
Good for average, good for speed.
probably the lowest home run hitter of all the ones we're picking today.
But, you know, he's not a negative for home runs.
And, you know, plays in one of the best lineups in baseball.
So I think this is the point to take him.
Yeah, he was my next ranked player as well.
He does make for an interesting just build in Roto Category Leagues
because he provides good batting average, run scored, and steals.
But his home runs and RBI are, they're not very good for a second round player.
So you just have to be cognizant of that and pair him with, you know, an Aaron Judge or, you know, some other big power hitting RBI producer in the first round of drafts.
But if you do that, I think Tray Turner.
I mean, that might be the way it goes, pairing Turner with either Judge or Otani.
Yeah, I think that would work out pretty well.
The last pick here for today that we're doing, we're rounding out the first two rounds.
I can go in a bunch of different directions here.
The player that I have ranked next,
and we'll draw the ire of many, I'm sure,
is Yoron Alvarez, who a completely lost season due to injury.
He only played 48 games, missed nearly four months
with something that started out as right-hand inflammation.
It turned out to be a fracture in that hand,
and then he suffered a significant left ankle sprain.
but when he's played the previous four years before this,
he's been very consistent between 31 and 37 home runs.
Good batting average.
I still think when he plays,
he's one of the best four category contributors in the game,
but there is significant risk with this pick,
which kind of goes against all the other picks that I've been making.
But I think he's kind of in this mix as like a two, three turn pick.
I am shocked.
Because I mentioned earlier, Jordan Alvarez,
isn't going to have outfield eligibility to begin next year.
He's DH only.
So it sounds like you don't have him in your first two rounds.
No, I'm not sure I have him in my third round.
Oh, okay.
Would you take him over Kurtz and Kamenaro?
I know you didn't get a chance to take either of those two.
So I have.
You have Alvarez ahead of them.
No, no, no, I have Alvarez at 22, Kaminarra at 23.
And then so my 24, 25, 26 is Alvarez, Vlad Jr. Pete Alonzo.
Yeah, so you're taking him over Vlad, who we were almost,
I think we almost had the same 24 players in our first two rounds.
It's just Alvarez.
You have Alvarez, I've Guerrero.
Vlad is just so frustrating, man.
If you look at his overall finishes the last five years.
Alvarez isn't?
You're right, you're right.
But overall finishes for Vlad the last five years.
43, 13, 62, 24, 1.
Uh-huh.
What do we do with that?
You're taking them 24.
So yeah, I mean, look, the year he finishes the top player, I don't really think that's in his range of outcomes.
I think it was circumstances that allowed that to happen playing in minor league parks and things like that.
But so basically his range is between 13 and 62 the last four years for Vlad, which is fine.
Like if you want to take him or Alonzo ahead of Yoron, I have no problem with that.
To be honest, I didn't really know exactly what to do with Yordon Alvarez.
So I just kind of stuck him here at the end of round too.
You're taking him over Catel Marte.
Yeah.
You're taking him over Pete Crow Armstrong.
As of now, you know, I'm open to discussion in the office.
You're taking him over Alonzo.
Yeah.
Any of those other great first baseman.
I had James Wood and PCA at like 27 and 28 too.
I think they're kind of right in that discussion.
Taking them over who's my next shortstop, Mookie Betts?
Yeah, I might take them over Mookie Betts too.
Yeah.
Okay.
I think it's a bold choice, but we'll have all off.
season to talk about it. We'll call that the honorary Chris Towers pick, because I'm sure if Chris
was here, Yordon Alvarez would have been somewhere in these first two rounds. So just to recap our
first round, Aaron Judge Otani, Bobby Witt, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Terrick Scouble, Ronald
de Cunia, Corbyn Carroll, Kyle Tucker, Julio Rodriguez, Garrett Crochet, and Francisco Lindor. The second round,
we had Ellie De LaCruz, Paul Skeens, Kyle Schwerber, Fernando Tatez Jr., Cal Raleigh, Jackson
Churio, Nick Kurtz,
Gunner Henderson, Junior Camerero, Jazz Chisholm, Trey Turner, and your Don Alvarez.
All right, we are going to wrap there.
For Scott, I am Frank, thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today.
Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify,
and we will be back again later this week.
Bye-bye.
