Fantasy Baseball Today - Projecting the Astros plus Salary Cap Drafts with Jen Piacenti! (11/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: November 19, 2020

What happened to those meddling Houston Astros in 2020!? Jen Piacenti joined us to try and figure it out (2:05)! ... But first, we have news (5:05)! Robinson Cano is suspended for 2021 and Cody Bellinger had shoulder surgery. ... So what exactly happened with the Astros (11:30)? In particular, are we buying back in on Alex Bregman? ... Are we excited about Carlos Correa in his contract year (19:05) or is he too injury prone? ... How did Jose Altuve bounce-back in the postseason (23:35)? It seems like he's being discounted too much in early drafts. ... What's the Worry-O-Meter on Yordan Alvarez (29:45)? The guy had surgery in both knees! ... Formerly known as auction drafts, how should you approach salary cap drafts (37:19)? What are our favorite strategies in this format? ... We wrapped up with a mailbag question. Email us at [e-mail]. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Santana So what do we do with those scoundrels? The Houston Astros in 2020. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, November 19th. He is Scott White. I am Frank Stanful. Scott was a massive Alex Breggman fan entering 2020. Scott, you going back to the well next season?

Probably. Yeah, I mean, you'll get them later now. You don't have to take Alex Bregman in the first round. So particularly if he falls to like that two, three turn. I'm not down on Alex Bregman. I think he had a down two months, basically. That's it. Yeah, where he was also battling an injury.

And before we get to our guest, because of course, today is a Thursday, so we have a fantastic guest here on the podcast. I want to bring up the fact that I have called Scott, Scotty, and I'm sure many people have called you Scotty throughout the course of your life, Scott. but Scott has never watched Euro Trip. So while I'm sure people have thrown Scott,

he doesn't know your way a ton in your life. Oh, you think they have. Yes. Scott hasn't seen Euro trip. That sung to me more than once, yes. We've got to change this. Come on, Scott. That is your weekend homework.

Actually, Scott's not here next week on the podcast. So, Scott, you have about 10, 12 days to watch Euro Trip. And that is the homework assignment that I am giving you. right now. I will put the kids to bed and watch it. Yeah, it's not really a family-friendly movie. Mention that we have a great guest here

on the podcast today, and if you've followed me in the past, then you probably know who I'm about to introduce. It is Jennifer Piachenti. Make sure you follow her on Twitter at Jen Pi-A-C-E-N-T-I. That's P-I-A-C-E-N-T-I. She's a fantasy football

and baseball analyst at Fantasy Alarm. Also, the host of Waiverwires. with Jerry Ferrara, and she's a host on serious XM fantasy. So, Jen, look, you're kind of a big deal. Let's just say for what it is, all right? Hardly. I'm hardly a big deal. I am very flattered to be invited here today.

And I have to say, I think it's pretty funny that you started out with a story about Scotty doesn't know because I have to admit to you, I have also not seen Euro Trip. And I was on a live stream with Howard Bender a few weeks ago, and I was talking about Scotty Miller. and he said something about Scotty doesn't know. And I just had a blank.

And he said, wait, you haven't seen it. And I said, no, he made me go at that moment to YouTube, look it up the clip. And you guys can probably find this on YouTube, the video of me making very shocked, reactive faces when I saw what Scottie doesn't know is all about. So I don't know, maybe I have to, maybe we're going to have to Zoom call this together, Scott, and watch Scottie doesn't know when you're a trip because I also am not cool and I haven't seen it. I mean, I don't think it's anything to do with being cool, Jen.

I'm not sure that I would classify myself as cool. It's one of those raunchy comedy movies that many people have seen. I wouldn't call it a classic, but it's pretty close, in my opinion. I was informed it was a cult classic and that I was out of the loop. Well, certainly that song sticks out to people. I can vouch for that. Look, this is the first movie that I can brag about seeing that Scott hasn't, so I'm going to take advantage of it while I can.

He made fun of me for watching The Matrix 2 a couple of months back without seeing The Matrix 1. I've recently rectified that. Now I need to watch the Matrix 3, although most people tell me that I don't need to. Today on the show, you might not know this, but Jen is a huge Astros fan. That's why we led with the scoundrels that they are. But we'll take a closer look at what happened with what went wrong with the Astros hitters this past season, whether we're buying in next year. I have a few questions about Framber Valdez

and of course regarding Yerdon Alvarez as well. I mean, to me, just one of the biggest wild cards in fantasy baseball in 2021. We also compete in a 15-team salary-cap draft together. And for those who don't realize what a salary-cap draft is, that is the new lingo for an auction draft. So this is a league-wide term. We are going into a salary-cap league,

or a salary-cap draft. So we compete in a 15-team roto salary-cap draft together. So we're going to pick Jen's brain a little bit about what she likes to do, some tips and tricks in that format. And I have an interesting mailbag question, if we can get to it. And some decent-sized breaking news.

So let's get to that first and foremost. Don't you know, Robbie Canoe? Hmm. Speaking of the, Astros, I guess it's pretty relevant that Robinson Canoe is a cheater. He has tested positive for PEDs for the second time in his career and has been suspended for the entire 2021 season. And the shallow second base position, Scott, became even shallower. Robinson Canoe was a top 12 second baseman in both head-to-head points leagues and in Roto. He batted 316 with 10 homers

in 896 OPS. Scott. We were trying to figure out where has this resurgence come from? Well, I guess now it makes sense regarding Robinson Canoe. What are the trickle-down effects here for the New York Mets if there are any? Well, I don't know that it's clear, first of all, because throughout the history of players getting busted for PEDs, it's not like we've seen their performance suddenly change in a dramatic way when they come back from the suspension. But yeah, he did see a resurgence and how hard he hit the ball last year.

and the production was up and seemed like he was on the right track after a season where things were going the other way. It right now frees things up for the Mets. It's for, if you're interested in anyone other than Robinson can know, it's actually good news because now, regardless of whether or not the D.H is back in the NL, there's a spot for Dominic Smith to play every day.

There's a spot for J.D. Davis to play every day with Jeff McNeil taking over at second base every day. Yeah, it's possible the Mets go out and sign somebody like DJ LaMayhew or trade for somebody else who's going to factor into that mix. But as things stand right now, it's pretty clear who all is starting where, which makes it easier to invest in those guys on draft day. Yes, and look, we'll see what happens regarding the National League DH in 2021.

and if there are more moves to follow now, obviously this is $24 million in salary that the Mets do not have to pay in the 2021 season. So Mets fans were rejoicing today because they have more money to spend and they can potentially trade for Francisco Lindor. One name that I was especially interested in once this went down, Jen, was Andres Jimenez, who we saw a little bit of in the shortened season. He's got some speed. He had eight steals in four. 49 games, 94th percentile in terms of sprint speed. So whether he remains with the Mets, I think they can slot him in at second or shortstop or if he's part of a bigger deal for Francisco Lindor.

I think that Mena's might kind of luck his way into everyday playing time in 2021, and I'm pretty interested. I hope he does. I'm pretty interested, too. And he's defensively really interesting, too. So I think people would have interest in Andres Jimenez. Like you said, there's just a lot of possibilities here from the Mets. McNeil moving back to second.

Dom Smith playing every day, as Scott said, I'm excited for this Mets team, for what Cohen can do. You know, he's already said like, hey, I'm bringing back old timers day. Like, let's get some excitement because if you actually go watch a game at City Field, it's so much more exciting than Chase Stadium. And sorry, apologies, Yankees fans. I have been to more games at Yankee Stadium than maybe any other stadium. City Field is such a fun place to watch a baseball game. and I would love if the Mets could become competitive again.

I'm excited for them with the new ownership and the possibilities here. All right, well, that's going to end the podcast here today. Sorry, Jen. You talked down about my Yankees. You're talking up City Field. Says the man who came out swinging about the Astros. Okay. I deserve it.

I deserve it. I deserve that. I have been to both stadiums as well, and City Field is definitely a fun place to watch some games. And this pretty much all but guarantees Robinson Canoe will not be a Hall of Famer. now. Probably wasn't going to be with the first PED suspension anyway. So we shall see what happens with the Mets off season. The other big news that we saw came out on Tuesday evening was that Cody Bellinger underwent surgery to repair his dislocated shoulder from the postseason. He's

expected to miss 10 weeks, which brings us right to the beginning of February. Bellinger went three for 22 in the World Series. Of course, we all remember, Scott probably more than anybody else. sorry Scott, that Bellinger hit the home run and the NLCS and he did the Basbrew his shoulder out and then didn't really perform well in the World Series. So he's having surgery. Scott, does this matter at all for fantasy? Are you dropping him behind anybody? Are you worried about this potentially affecting his power output in 2021? Yeah, I mean, eight-week timetable, first of all, that gives him time to be ready for opening day, but that's presuming it's only eight weeks and he's totally fine after that, totally back to 100%.

It's a pretty big assumption. It doesn't always work out that way. And shoulder injuries, yeah, I mean, a lot of times we see the power compromised when they're, when they're first back. So I have Cody Bellinger 13th overall out of the first round, just barely. I'm not motivated to move him down based on this news, but there's, there's a little flag next to his name now, a little asterisk. Red Cross, whatever little icon you want to use there to remind you there's an extra concern

there. And I don't know, when push comes to shove, maybe I'll shy away from him at that spot. And maybe he slides more to the middle of the second round. I don't know. But as things stand right now, it's another concern piled on to either the performance one we already saw this year. Yeah, and we have the next three or four months to figure out what's going to happen with Bellinger and how he's going to look in spring training and whether or not that will affect his fantasy baseball draft stock. I was already a little bit lower than him than everybody else. I have him behind Freddie Freeman. I have him behind Bryce Harper.

I'm tempted to now move him behind names like Francisco Lindor and Mani Machado. That might be a little bit of an overreaction. So let's see what happens over the next three or four months when it comes to Cody Bellinger. All right, Jen, what happened with him? the Astros in 2020. The offense took a bit of a step back. We're used to seeing them as one of the best offenses in baseball. 14th and run scored. A team OPS of 720, which ranked 16th in Major League Baseball and some really weird numbers. Correa really struggled against all-speed pitches, Bregman and Altuvae struggling against breaking pitches as well. Then they all came alive in the

postseason. Like nothing ever happened. So you as somebody who was as invested in the Houston Astros as anybody that I personally know, what did you see from the Houston Astros this past season? Was it mental? Just in general, what happened with this team in 2020? So I think there's a lot of things in play here. And when we talk about anything in regards to the 2020 baseball season, everything is a little asterisk, right? I mean, even the Houston Astrix, as people like to call them. A seven-game losing streak in a 60-game season ended up being the mathematical equivalent of a 19 game losing streak in 162 game season. So when we take these samples and we say, oh, they were terrible, I think we just have to keep it all in perspective.

Now, we know this is right after this cheating scandal, what they were going through emotionally, you know, they have a new coach, they have new GM, everything's different. The way they feel with each other, this is not exactly the same, you know, scenario. We know that there had to be emotional told there were no fans. We know there's no fans. We see them end up ending the season under 500, which no one expected. But then they got into more of a familiar click afterward. This is my theory. Hey, here we are in postseason. Hey, no, here we are. We have a shot. We're going to prove now that we aren't these cheating, horrible people that everybody said they were. And at the end, I had people telling me who actually disliked the Astros, you know what? I was almost rooting for

them at the end because it was kind of like they said, no, we can overcome it. We can come together. So I think there's so many things we're going to have to put in here that we can't really know what's wrong. For instance, when you talk about Alex Bregman, and we can talk about him more specifically, and you talk about the stats on this year, I don't know if you've realized it, but Bregman has always had bizarre splits between the first half of his season and the second half of his season. In 2017, in the first 84 games, he batted 256. In the second half, he batted 315. In 2018, it was about the same, but in 2019, first half, 265, second half, 338. If you watch them, you see it and you feel that. You feel that Bregman's that kind of a player. Well, what was this

62 game season? Was it equivalent to a first half? Was it equivalent to the second half? Was it equivalent to just a slump? Because if I'm slumping for 30 games, that's not as big of a deal in 162 game season. And, you know, I can go on and on about this. And we can talk about, for Jose Ramirez in 2018, over a 52 game streak, he hit 210 with seven home runs or nine stolen bases or over a different 52 game streak. He hit 302 with 18 home runs and seven stolen bases. So I just don't know how we're going to take this information and make anything really meaningful from it. No, and it's a great point that you bring up. And I heard people reference this, you know, when we were entering the 2020 season and we were doing draft content and we were talking about,

Well, guys who get off to traditionally slow starts, like Edwin and Carnaccio, are we going to see them just have an entire bad 2020? Because essentially it's just a two-month season, and it's a short span. So I think it's a really good point that you bring up regarding Bergman. He has traditionally always been better in the second halfs of seasons. And he was unlucky. He dealt with a hamstring injury, which limited him. He still had a 25% line drive rate.

his 254 batting average on balls and play was well below his 293 career babb. So it seems like there was some unluckiness and he was dealing with an injury. So Scott, I already asked you regarding the ADP right now, his early ADP, according to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. There are now 12 drafts done over at the NFBC. His ADP is 31.4, which means you get him in the third round. We did our mock draft last week. He went pick 24 overall.

Jen, it seems like you are getting either fairly or unfairly a pretty good discount on Bregman, who was right around a first round pick last season. He's now slipping to the late, second, sometimes early third round in these early drafts. Yeah, and for me, when I play fantasy baseball, it's always about value. And I'm happy to take that value if you guys think that he can't hit because he was cheating or he had a bad season and that's how he's going to perform. But when I look at Alex Bregman, I see two major things that. say he is someone that I want on my team. One is his plate discipline. He's absolutely

ridiculously good with plate discipline. His eye is fantastic. He ended up with the third best OBP on the team this season after Brantley and Springer, even with all those terrible numbers that we rattled off earlier. Also, he has multi-positional eligibility. And I cannot stress this enough to people who are beginning to play fantasy baseball. You want to be able to move your pieces around the diamond. That became even more and more important this year with COVID-19 when you had people out. If you could take someone at shortstop and move them into third base so you could squeeze someone else into the shortstop position, these kind of things, they really add to a player's value. And so for me, Alex Bergman is a really valuable player on so many levels.

And this is a guy who's been in the ALMVP conversation multiple times and because he had a few bad games this year. If he's going to fall, yeah, I'm going to take him every time. Jen, I hate to be the bearer of bad news. And this might be what you were about to address, Scott. But Breggman will only have third base eligibility this upcoming season. He didn't play a single game at shortstop. But I think it's a good point for everybody to know because they might be wondering, well, what are the position eligibility rules for CBS leagues in the 2021 season? and we are doing 10 games played at that position in 2020, whereas normally it's 20 games played over the course of a full season.

So Bregman played all of his games at third base this past season. However, he is someone who could easily get eligibility at shortstop. Yeah, if Karea gets hurt or, yeah, he could. I wonder if Dusty Baker just isn't interested in playing him there, you know, since there was a change in management, and then he went from playing shortstop a lot to playing it none, zero times, if that's just not something Baker's interested in doing. It's possible, but we also didn't see Carlos Correa come down with an injury like he usually does.

He happened to have an injury-free season. So, you know, Bregman is a shortstop by, that's how he, you know, play, grew up. And we converted him to third basement. So for me, that possibility makes him have more value. because I do think that he will end up with the eligibility. And it is possible that Dusty Baker won't. We also thought Dusty Baker didn't like rookies, and he decided to use Kyle Tucker.

So, you know, depending on, you know, how things happen, I do think that still gives Bregman a boost. You brought up Carlos Correa there, Jen. And just a weird season for him, we haven't really seen his production be this low. in a season that he was healthy. And for the most part, I assume he was healthy this past season.

He hit just 264 with five home runs, 22 runs scored, and 25 RBI in 58 games. Postseason came, clicked. 17 for 47, 362 batting average, six home runs, 17 RBI. He is in the prime age of his career. He's entering his contract year. Scott, this is something that I have brought up multiple times,

and I've even gone as far as to say that I think Correa can be 2021's version of, Corey Seeger, that middle round shortstop that you get that can hit 280 plus 25 to 30 home runs. He's in the middle of a really good lineup as well. And his early ADP is great. And we spoke about him the other day, Scott, is just one of these bounceback hitters where if you go starting pitcher early, you can get him in that range. And it's something that I'm going to be looking to do, Scott.

Yeah, no, me too. In our first mock draft for CBS, I got him. It was a 12 teamer. I got him in, well, was it around 10, I think. Late. It was late. And I don't really have any concerns performance-wise for Correa. He relieved those with his postseason performance.

Had, you know, pretty miserable regular season. Actually ended up hitting more home run six in the postseason than he had five during the regular season. So if there was ever a year to combine postseason and regular season stats, to get a more representative sample. I think this is the one. And Correa

yeah, I mean I wouldn't have necessarily been worried about him without that postseason but it relieved a lot of those concerns. So the big question for Correa is just will he stay healthy? Because previous three years he missed significant time.

He missed over 40 games each of those years. And who knows if this wasn't a 60-game season maybe he would have this year too. Jen, regarding Correa, we're dealing with small sample sizes for all the players in this 60-game season. So it seems relevant to look at an even smaller sample size and use the postseason as a reason to buy back in on him heading into next year. Is that foolish? I feel like so much fantasy baseball is statistically driven at this point.

But for some reason, look, the guy. is 26 years old. He's playing for a contract next year. I can't help but just remember the names that when you're playing for a contract, somehow they just manage to stay healthy all of a sudden and have these monster years. So, I mean, I am keeping that in mind when projecting Correa for next season. Yeah, for Correa, I mean, he basically needs to stay out of massage parlors and just behave himself and he should be fine. As postseason, as you mentioned, 362 batting average, 766 slugging, six home runs, 17 RBI. And he really became the team leader at that point. And really the team needed him to step up and do that. And I think shining on the big stage like that is also important

when you're in a contract year. And so yeah, I think that's going to fuel the fire. But I have to tell you, I do not trust Carlos Correa to stay healthy. I just, maybe it's because I'm a fan. He's always hurt. Do I think he'll try to? Yeah, I think. I think. think he will, but I just, I have trouble. I think all of you guys should draft him. And if he goes really late, I will draft him for the value. But he's one that I, I tend to stay away from. Even though I believe in the talent, I believe in the skill set. I just, I think he's great. When he's healthy, he's amazing. I just don't like dealing with the amount of IR. Yeah, Jen. All right, all you guys take him. And, you know, when he gets hurt, I'll just, I'll just be in the background to, uh, to get a trade offer at

To get my multi-position eligibility out of Alex Bregman at that point. I can relate to it, though, and Scott knows very well. Entering this past season, look, I'm a Yankee fan. You see all the stuff behind me? It's no surprise. But I wanted nothing to do with Aaron Judge. I wanted nothing to do with Stanton because these guys just cannot stay healthy. So I definitely echo the same sentiments, and I understand where you're coming from when it comes to Correa.

We spoke about these small sample sizes, Jen, regarding Correa. Same thing with Jose Al-Tuvae in the postseason. Something just clicked for this guy. And more so than any other player on the Astros, Al-Tuve just lost this year. And you listen to the broadcast throughout the postseason. They talk about how he is a sensitive guy, and he hears the criticism,

and that might have been in the back of his head throughout the course of this season. I don't think he's done yet, and I think he showed that in the post-season. And even more so than these other names, Al-Tu-Ve is going late in early drafts. we're talking a 107.1 ADP in the ninth round of early drafts. So I'm looking at a shallow position here, Jen, with second base.

And I still think Altuvae can hit 280, 20 home runs, maybe still you five bases. The lineup bounces back and he gets all those counting stats. I think that's very easily within his range of outcomes. I mean, I do too. I think there's only been other than this season. which was terrible, obviously, 219, I believe he batted. I think there's only been one other season where he's batted under 300.

And the guy is a great hitter. And to be honest, I don't know how he does it because to watch him bat is actually not enjoyable. He just freely swings at what seems like everything, but somehow he gets the ball in play. And he usually bats over 300 or more. Correct me if I'm wrong about that batting average, but I believe it's been only one other season other than this one that he's been under 300. So of course he can return to it. Of course he's not going to suddenly be batting below the Mendoza line next year. And as you said, it's a very shallow position. So if he's going in the ninth round, I don't see how you don't take him. I think

the thing that people have issue with more than the power and the batting average with which people question, I understand, is the fact that he doesn't steal anymore. And when he first came into the league, it was so exciting because he also had the speed. And a lot of times, when, we're doing our middle infielders, that's where we want to get our stolen bases. But I think if we can just let that go, then we'll see that actually Jose Altuve, I mean, that's got to be a value in round nine, that you got to take it. Yeah, you were right. He hit 219. He hit 29. He hit 298 in 2019. But for one, two, three, four, five years, five seasons straight from 2014 to 2018, he was up over a 300 batting average. Scott, I've painted a rosy picture for all.

all these Astros seemingly for whatever reason. I'm buying back in on all these players. I'm like Jen. I'd like to find where the value is for fantasy baseball seasons, and it feels like people are overreacting just a little bit too far for the Houston Astros hitters. But the plate discipline has started to slip a little bit for Altuve. An 18% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.

So I don't want to just say, like, there are no negatives. There is a chance that Al-TuVe is on. this downside of his career. And I think people should probably keep that in mind as well, Scott. Yes. I think so too. Al-Tu-Vase is the one I worry about most because, you know, you can't count on stolen bases anymore, as Jim was saying.

And because we've seen that strikeout rate, well, still very good. It's gone up some. He's over 30 now. So it would make sense that we would see some decline from him, potentially. he had a monster postseason too. Like I was saying for Correa, Altuve.

Altuvei had a huge one himself, five home runs during the regular season, then five more in the postseason when he hit, I think he hit about 375. 375. Yeah. And in terms of how he impacts the ball during the regular season,

that didn't really change, at least not on average. It was really just the strikeout rate where we saw anything different. And as I said, at rate was still good in a general sense. So yeah, if he was still going in the third round, third, fourth round, then that would probably be scary, but he's going nowhere near there.

And I see all upside at that point. Particularly if you're talking about a league that's 12 teams are shallower. Like, any misses you have in your lineup, like, yeah, you want your. first, second, third round picks to pan out. But beyond that, any misses you have in your lineup, if you're active on the waiver wire, you can cobble something together, you know? So go big with those mid-round hitters

and trust that they're going to bounce back. And I think also if you watched Al-Tuvae play, you mentioned earlier the mental aspect. There's no question that there's a mental aspect after this cheating scandal. You watch Al-Tuvae play, you'd see he was messing up, fielding place too. I mean, he was a terrible defender this year. There's something going on mentally for him. And I think it's more of a question of not so much the physical tools, but like the mental state that he's going to be in. And if he can overcome, you know, as you said, being a sensitive guy. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, I think it's pretty clear from their comments and the way they reacted that they were ticked off. They did not think they were treated fairly. They thought they were singled out. And whether whether or not,

You could say they should have shown more contrition or they're wrong to feel that way. Maybe, regardless, that's the way they seem to have felt. And, like, I got the sense they were pressing. I mean, that was not a sub-500 team. And yet they finished with a sub-500 record, only made it to the playoffs because eight teams made the playoffs. And then we saw them turn it on in the postseason. So it's weird to evaluate them for a number of reasons.

It's weird to evaluate everybody after a 60-game season, obviously. but especially them. And I think people are taking a little too much satisfaction and downgrading them in their rankings, quite honestly. All right, Jen, I was going to ask you about Kyle Tucker, but I do want to get to some other things. So just the last name I'll ask you about is Yerdon Alvarez, who of course had surgery on both of his knees

and missed a large majority of the 2020 season. And just a very unique player. We haven't seen a guy that just comes up, and he's basically a DH from the moment he joins the major leagues, but can hit with the best of them. And just his ADP at this point, he's going in that eighth, ninth round range and just a guy who can potentially pay off first

or second round value. He's just the biggest wild card. What we like to do here on the podcast, Jen, is the Worryometer. So I wanted to get your opinion on Alvarez. Worryometer, one being, I'm not worried about this guy. this is an easy, no-brainer.

Yeah, I'm all over Alvarez. The knees are going to be perfectly fine. 10 is you cannot draft this guy at all, no matter what. Trade them away in all your dynasty leagues. Got to get off of them. I'm super scared. Where are you at?

1 to 10, Wuriometer. You're on Alvarez. Three? Ooh. All right. Pretty optimistic, cautiously optimistic, Jay? Yeah, I mean, he's a DH. Like, how much is it?

How much are his needs? he's already posted the video. Guys, don't you know that if you want to know if an athlete's healthy, just go to their social media accounts. And if they have a video of themselves, you know, bench pressing or running in a straight line or anything like that, obviously they're fine. But no, I mean, he's a kid. He's strong.

As you said, he's a DH. It's not like we're asking him to make a lot of superstar plays. He just has to stand up there and hit the ball. And he does that really, really well. So I'm just not concerned. And if you're getting him, you know, eighth or ninth round, that's where you take your home run shot. That's where you take the shot to win your league. You don't play conservative anymore in round eight or nine. If you,

you can actually wait till eight or nine and get Yordaun Alvarez, like how are you not taking? You have to be taking. Not worried. The only hard thing about drafting Yordan Alvarez, because I was as high on anybody on, on him, just like I was with Bregman, I guess. Going into last year I was taking Yorden Alvarez, sometimes early second round, or late second round, before the knee stuff came up. But at least on CBS, I'm not sure if it's going to hold throughout the industry, but at least on CBS, there are so many potentially high-end DH-only players heading into next year. In addition to Nelson Cruz and Yorden Alvarez, you have Stanton, Giancarlo Stanton, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Saler even. You know, it's not,

early round, obviously, but Willie Calhoun's DH only, just more than we're used to seeing because the season wasn't long enough for those guys to fill in at actual positions. And maybe it makes sense to draft two in the hope that they get the five games necessary to pick up eligibility in the outfield or whatever in certain cases. Alvarez, obviously, we know you won't do that,

but some of those others. But a little bit of drafting I've done so far, that's like when I miss out on, that's the reason why I miss out on Alvarez if I do. and I don't like it. That makes a lot of sense. I didn't even think about the fact that a lot of guys are going to be a DH only eligible next year. Yeah.

I do think that they will try to give him opportunity. They've been saying that they wanted to. Obviously, we don't know. Things have changed Dusty Baker's there. And he played literally one game last year, which he went yard, by the way.

He did. He did. He performed really well in that one game. It was awesome at the alternate site before that. Like his production was not limited by him playing with, bad knees. Definitely not. So imagine once he has two bionic knees, he could be even more incredible. So yeah. Yeah, but that's interesting. I think their plan was to try to get him some time in left field. And certainly right now, while they have Michael Brantley, who's okay as a fielder,

but he's not like superior. So I could see them doing that. They might. But again, it's all guesses. So hopefully he would be one of the ones that would get eligibility after a couple months. There is your Houston Astros fix. Jen gives just a three on the Wariometer. All right, let's go. Let's buy back in on Yerdon Alvarez. And we spoke a lot about that with Ariel Cohen when he was on is the further you go into your draft, the more you want to take risks. So that seems like round seven through nine, whatever the range is, a calculated risk for Yerdon Alvarez. Just want to hit a break before we do that. I want to remind everyone, download the CBS Sports app. You could do so many different things with this. You could follow box scores.

from any sport. You can get breaking news sent right to your phone. You can even watch CBS Sports HQ. You can read Scott's fantasy baseball articles. It really is awesome. It's an all-encompassing article. The CBS Sports app. Thanks too.

Yeah. Frank has articles on there. Yeah, I mean, I'm not here for self-promotion, Scott. I'm just here to promote you, obviously. But, yeah, I use it on Sundays. When I'm following along the NFL games and I want to see targets, they actually have fantasy points on the CBS Sports app as well as part of their box score. So that's super awesome. And best of all, it's free. So download it today in the Google Play

store and on your iOS device. And next week, no Scott mentioned, Scott is out. He's going to be watching Euro Trip somewhere. We will have an Apple podcast review with Jen, yes, via Zoom, which is basically all we've been doing in 2020 is having these Zoom reunions and Zoom watch parties. But next week, we will have a mailbag at some point. I'm going to change up when we release the podcast as well. One will come out on Monday and when we'll come out on Wednesday because it is Thanksgiving week. So sending your Apple Podcasts review questions, it's Bubba and the Batflip week next week. If you guys don't know who they are, they do the Bench with Bubba podcast together and just great fantasy baseball minds and players. So we'll have Bubba on Monday's podcast.

We will have Toby Batflip Crazy if you follow them on Twitter on Wednesday's podcast. We will answer some of your questions. So leave a five-star Apple Podcast rating and review. drop your question there. If you have left a review in the past, you can actually update it with a new question or email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We're going to take a quick break.

When we come back, we'll pick Jen's mind a little bit. I don't want to get all the secret sauce because we compete in the league together, but we will pick her mind a little bit regarding salary cap drafts, formerly known as auction drafts, here, Fantasy Baseball today. In a salary cap draft,

there are no excuses. You can completely construct your team however you want to, whether it's a head-to-head points league, whether it is a Roto league, you can get all the pitchers you want, you can map out, I want this corner infielder, I want a stacked outfield in Roto, I want five fantastic outfielders, I want Stars and Scrub,

I want Trout and Fernando Tatis on my team. You can make that happen, and that's why I personally think that the salary cap drafts, formerly known as auctions, are the best way to play, because there are no restrictions. So, Jen, just a little all-encompassing. What is your process for planning?

What is, do you have any specific strategies throughout the course? Are you someone who likes to jump bid? When you see that number on 17 or 18, do you go to 20 to kind of throw people off a little bit? Do you throw players out at their projected value? Hmm, let me throw Mike Trout out at 45 bucks and see if I could just sneak them by everybody. What are you thinking?

when it comes to these. Oh, man, there's so many, I have so many thoughts. I could do like 17 hours just on salary cap drafts. It's going to be hard for me not to say auction as well. It is absolutely my favorite way to play. And I feel like once you play that way, you don't really want to go back to snake drafting. I mean, I always do both, but it's so much fun. But it's even different this year because this year was the first year I did online salary cap drafts. In the past, it was always in person. So there was a different kind of strategy. And it did involve, looking around the room and seeing if anybody had to tell, does someone click their pen when they're in on someone?

Does someone only bid on a player that they actually want? Or do they sit quietly the rest of the time? And you can figure these things out. And it's always good to know who you're playing with. So if I know Frank is a Yankees fan, I know that he might spend a little bit more on DJ LaMayhew, for instance, or Aralda Chapman, or whomever. So it's always good to know your room.

As far as preparation, I like to decide how much I want to spend on offense versus defense. So batting and pitching, you know, do I want to spend? It's usually 35, 65 for me, about, but everything is very fuzzy, because once you get into the draft, you got to be flexible. You got to know, okay, you know, here are my auction values. One thing I like to decide is I'm willing to spend about this range of money for Mike Trout. Like I'm willing to spend up to a 60. $60 for Mike Trout. But maybe even I'll add a plus five to that. If it really goes that way, maybe I would even go 65, but then I'm going to remember I have to subtract over here. So I like

to tier my players and have ideas of what tier of money they fall into and try to stay within the value. And every time I spend a little more, I think that's okay. I immediately make a list of other players that I think I can get later that are sleepers. I do a lot of arrows scratching out. I'm old school. I'm not on the computer. I don't have a spreadsheet. I have a piece of paper lines and arrows and I'm going really fast like this. It's really cool, you guys. Yeah. They. And I've seen it in person. Your arm's just a blur. Honestly, I'm too busy trying to rein in my partner that we, that we usually, I mean, we rank so. I can't. I don't even. We have a partner. Maybe I just don't work well with others. It's just, I can handle that.

I do one salary cap draft with a team, and it's extremely more difficult than just doing it yourself. It's very hard. It is very tough trying to figure out, do we go this extra dollar, and you have to think of it in the nick of time too. It's definitely interesting. Scott, I think one of the main points that Jen brought up

when it comes to salary cap drafts is tiering your players and knowing that as you are, ending or coming to the end of a tier, that player, everyone else knows what the tiers are, right? So look, we know that there are a big three starting pitchers in 2021. It's the Grom, it's Gary Cole, it's Shane Bieber. When you get to that third pitcher, everyone knows that that's the end of the tier. When he's the last one that's nominated, he's probably going to go for more money than those others just because people know that the tier is ending. So do you use a similar approach? Do you use tiers more because I've noticed that I actually do use them more when it comes to these salary

cap drafts. I draft off tier no matter what the format is. So in a salary cap draft, it's certainly top of mind. It's one of many considerations top of mind. Usually when I'm, it sounds like I have a process that's similar to, uh, to gens where I, um, you know, I don't go so much pitching versus hitting as I, I lay out the whole lineup, or the group that I'm bidding on, basically, the whole lineup. And I start filling in blanks of the amount I want to spend at each position. And the amount I want to spend at each position is determined by the tiers. The narrower, the tier, the more I'm willing to spend on it.

It's, I want, where I spend money, I want it to be the most impactful money. That's less a position by position calculation these days than it used to be. Now it's more, where am I going to get my steals and how much, how many high-end pitchers do I want to buy? Because I think those are the most irreplaceable assets in fantasy baseball right now. But that's, you know, I have an idea of how much each of those plays. players should go for and maybe I budget a few dollars more if I'm super motivated to get it. So what really becomes an issue is if the amount I budget for the players early, some of the first players in that tier, if they end up blowing out the amount I want, then what do I do?

Because probably the later ones are going to go for even more because the tier is dwindling, like you're saying, Frank. And so lately I've started to go into a salary. cab draft with a plan A, a plan B, and sometimes even a plan C. And it's, you know, plan A is contingent on me getting Trey Turner or whatever. And if I can't get him as my number one steel source, because he just goes for way too much, I move on to plan B, which requires me to make sure he gets nominated early enough that I can pivot, because that's an issue too. Like, there's just so many, so many layers to salary cap drafts that honestly you learn from your mistakes with them. That's how I've done it.

And that's how I've adjusted my plan over the years. Yeah. And I'm happy that I'm not crazy because when I am coming up with my plan strategy for a salary cap draft, I basically map out every position of what I'm going to do beforehand. I have, okay, a plan A, I'm going to spend $10 combined on my catchers for two catchers. I am going to, I know that going in, I want one of Trey Turner or Adelberto-Mondisi for steel so that I don't have to worry about that. If I get Turner at 40, 42 bucks, fine.

If not, I pivot to Adelberto Montesey for $30, whatever it might be. And I knew that that was actually my strategy last year, Jen, in the league that we played together. It was get one of Turner or Monisey. and after Turner went, I found myself in a bidding war for Mondi C because I didn't have enough. I didn't have a plan C or a plan D. So wound up spending $35 in Adalberto Montesee and it kind of paid off in the end, but for the most part. Steals are the hardest thing. I have to say the other thing that I've found, and I can go on auction,

I'm sorry, on salary cap draft strategy for on and on and on. But one thing that I found is you also can't be afraid to spend money because a lot of times I think when you start your first time you do one, you think, oh, I have all this money and you sit around and you have the money because you're afraid. You're afraid to spend money. And then at the end, you have the hammer. And it feels really good. You have the hammer. But then what really ends up happening is you end up paying too much for all these players at the end of the draft that you didn't really want. You don't end up with your team. So it's about feeling your way through when it's okay to spend and when you need to hold on. And you shouldn't be too afraid to spend money because, as you both mentioned, because of the

tears, sometimes the thing to do is get that player right away. because Mike Trout might go for 50, and then when you get to the bottom of that tier and say it's someone like, I don't know, Alex Spragman, this is not a great example, but Alex Spragman suddenly goes for more than Mike Trout because it's the bottom of a tier and people are realizing that they're running out.

Again, those were not great examples. I should have used steals people that steal. Like Ronald McCuna, for example. Ronald McCune and Mike Trout are in the same tier, I would say, and Trout goes for 48 bucks. He's the first player nominated. Ronald Coonio is one of the last players in that tier. He might go for $55.

He might go for $60 because people see him. Because people are panicking at that point. Yeah. So I would say you might even want to jump on the first player in that tier. If you know you want an elite starting pitcher, okay, DeGrom's the first player out there. Jump on it. And especially if you've never played a salary cap draft before,

Jen is 100% right. Spend your money. Don't be scared to do. So I remember the first one I ever did. This was, I don't know, five, six years ago. I waited and waited. and I wound up with like Jacoby Ellsbury for $31 and Freddie Freeman at the time, which was good. But I wound up with a bunch of like these $25 to $30 guys.

And like I didn't really have a first round player. You don't need to play that way, but I just didn't end up liking my team. So don't be scared to spend money in these. That's especially true, the shallower your league is. If you're talking 12-teamer, certainly 10-teamer, the waiver wire is robust. I mean, your misses you can correct pretty easily. So what you want to spend your money on are the truly impactful guys, which will probably go for a disproportionately high amount because it's a shallow league.

But you want to be in on it. Those are the difference makers. And if you're a player worth your salt, you'll be able to patch the holes around them as the season plays out. So, yeah, I'm totally with you. I think, you know, maybe a 15 teamer gets a little more difficult to do that because you can't rely on patching those holes as easily. And certainly if you're talking something like AL or NL, I mean, who even plays those anymore?

But if something that deep, then I'm much more about spreading out my money in those formats. But like a standard 12-team, Roto, yeah, I'm with you guys. All right, let's wrap up with some mailbag here. And Scott, you'll appreciate this one. you have a new, a new impersonation impression that people are aware of and fond of. This one's from Aaron in Kenosha. Scott's impersonation of See You Later Pups on your episode with Nick Pollock made 2020 worth going through. See you later pups.

Yeah, Bob from Puppie Dog Pals. I was just tweeting about puppy dog pals earlier today. I saw that. Scott, you never sent me a picture of your Halloween costume. Ah. Were you dressed up as one of these puppy dog pal characters? We are Facebook friends. You are on Facebook.

You can look it up yourself, Frank. It's on there. Oh, it's on there. I have this enormous red bow tie. Like, really disproportionate. But that's fine. I'm dressed up like a cartoon character. What do you expect?

All right. Now just for that, I'm going to steal it off your Facebook and post it all over Twitter. This next one's from Tony. I'm listening to the podcast and the theme that Scott talks about in terms of whether pitchers will get a full workload in 2021. I completely understand that rationale.

But in theory, there's going to be 162 games of nine-inning baseball. Someone has to pitch all those innings, right? Are they all disappearing to the ether of middle relief arms? My thought is that it may be more team-by-team-specific, depending on depth. Like the workload risk of Walker Bueller makes more sense because of the great depth, the Dodgers rotation, and they can easily skip starts if they wanted to. I'm thinking that not every team will have that luxury.

Is it fair to have the opinion that the work? workload concerns might be overstated for next season. And we spoke about this a little bit the other day, Scott. I asked you, should we just bet on talent when it comes to pitchers next season? And I think you do have to take it case by case. I think the three that we're probably most worried about or aware of, Bueller, Corbyn Burns, Hazus Lazardo, all three of which I believe either have great depth on their team

or have really great bullpens. So, yeah. Yeah. I think for those three cases in particular, we should have concerns. Yeah, it's a good point. It went unstated, but I did factor it into my calculus, I guess, when putting together my rankings. The Dodgers, I mean, they do this. They do this crap anyway.

They always have so many arms they can turn to. A team like the Phillies, maybe not. But, you know, I'm not that worried about Aaron Nola anyway, because he's handled such a big workload the past few years. But sure, yeah, no, that's a consideration. We've got to take another look at Aranola. I was looking through somebody else's rankings in the industry, and people are much lower on Aranola than we are, Scott.

So we've got to get to the bottom of this and figure this out. I love him. I'm perfectly fine with Aaron Nola. I know. They were heading into this year, too, I feel like. But even more now, I don't know. Just those last three starts, they went poorly and kind of skewed his line, but it was still, what, a 260-something ERA?

Yeah, he faded a little bit. Those three bad starts. So I don't know what the problem is. Three pitch mix, awesome change up. Come on. Let's not overthink it when it comes to Aranola. She is Jen Pia Chenty. Make sure you follow her on Twitter at Jen Piacenti.

P-I-A-C-E-N-T-I. She is with Fantasy Alarm and also the host of WaverWired and a host on Sirius X-M Fantasy. Make sure you check out all of her work. Jen, thank you so much for joining us here on Fantasy Baseball today. Thanks for having you guys. For Jen and Scott. I am Frank.

for listening and watching Fantasy Baseball today on our YouTube channel. We'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.