Fantasy Baseball Today - Projecting Young Pitchers & Rookie Hitters Finishing Strong! (9/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 27, 2023

Cristian Javier is getting whiffs on his fastball again (2:35). ... Seth Lugo saved his best for last (8:05)! ... Juan Sucko just set a career-high with 35 home runs (10:50). ... Elly De La Cruz had a monster game, including the third hardest hit ball this season (14:15). ... Christian Walker has had a huge season (17:10). ... How might we rank Michael King, Ryan Pepiot and Reese Olson for next season (23:40)? ... Rookie hitters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Wilyer Abreu and Bo Naylor are all finishing strong (36:50). ... News (46:03): Corey Seager left with a forearm contusion. ... Do we want to use any of these pitchers in the final weekend (50:16)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (54:27). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. What's up and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Wednesday, September 27th. I am Frank Stamford, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, Michael King, Ryan Pepio, and Reese Olson.

They just keep on doing their thing, winning people leagues right now. Ellie De La Cruz had the third hardest hit baseball this season, and we have some other rookie hitters that are really finishing strong. So we'll take a look at those names as well. Let's jump in. That ball did have a family. We'll get to Ellie De LaCruz in just a bit, Scott. But you are up first, your player of the night.

My player of the night was somebody who didn't actually put up that. impressive of a stat line. I didn't even have him on the rundown. I heard you didn't have him on the rundown and I wanted to talk about him. So let's talk about Christian Javier, who was the lesser pitcher in the matchup between the Astros and Mariners. Here on Tuesday evening, he gave up three earned runs and four and two-thirds innings, walk three, struck out six.

Not the most amazing start, but 16 swinging strikes on 91 pitches. 11 of those swinging strikes on his fastball. And this follows a start, a very impressive start against the Orioles, where he struck out 11 and 5 innings. He had 20 swinging strikes, 14 on the fastball. And even his start before that, 13 swinging strikes, 8 on the fastball. This is more like the Christian Javier we came to love, getting a lot of whiffs on that fastball.

I think he's trending the right. right direction here. Obviously, it's too late for him to be of any use this fantasy season if you started him this week. Okay, he kind of has you in a little bit of a hole. But, you know, we're at a point where we're evaluating players just as much for next season, and he's going to be an interesting case because I still think there's a lot of upside.

Obviously, he peaked in 2022, but, you know, he looked like a guy who had a lot of upside in the years even before then. and if he's figured it out with a fastball, if that's a big weapon for him again, then he's going to make for a pretty exciting sleeper next year, I would say he is one of those pitchers, Christian Javier, who will be ranked within the glob of about 60 pitchers or so that are going to be, you know,

we're all just kind of going to kind of be guessing what order to draft them. But he is one I'm going to specifically target because I think the upside and specifically the strikeout upside is higher. for Christian Javier. And the good news is we'll get to continue to evaluate him. Well, maybe we won't.

The Astros might not go to the playoffs, so maybe we won't. But if they do make it to the playoffs, then we'll get a few extra starts, hopefully, to see if he progresses from here. Yeah, and I'm just taking a look now at his pitch mix from today. He did get four whiffs on eight swings on the slider. So that's a 50% whiff rate. He only had two whiffs on his slider in his previous.

start. The fastball has looked much better. You're right about that, Scott. But I think for everything to click, and we know this about Javier, we saw it last year, he really needs both of those two pitches to be on. The fastball and the slider, but I think this is kind of step one in the recovery is getting that fastball going. And then hopefully he can kind of figure out in the offseason what went wrong with the slider and get that going again next year. I have a feeling, again, I don't know, I can't gauge the entire fantasy industry's perception of Christian Javier right now. But my guess is people are probably not going to be too excited to draft him, at least based on this past season. I mean, that's the impression I've gotten.

I know, you know, Saris has been down on him for months, and he's highly influential for good reason. He's good at evaluating pitchers. But even if you're breaking down, okay, you're explaining why a pitcher struggled. okay, this pitch doesn't have the right shape or whatever. I don't know. All the methods that he uses, you're still evaluating results, ultimately. It's just going deeper in evaluating the results and explaining results with different results.

And if the guy's just messed up, the results are going to be bad across the board. And I think Christian Javier was just kind of messed up most of this year. But late this season, he seems like he's starting to figure it out again. Yeah, and I'm just checking in on a homekeeper league that I have. You keep four players year over year. I really don't have great keeper options. One of them is Christian Javier, who is a round 20 keeper.

So I have a feeling that I'll obviously keep him there and just kind of hope it works out and he gets back on track. Yeah. So that's a nice discount even expecting him to be discounted already. Yeah. You know what's funny, Scott? You and I, we had so many similar picks coming into the year. One of those, Christian Javier to win the ALCHA. Sy Young. How about that?

Oops. I don't even remember that, but I'll take your word for it. Yeah. I was eye on them. I know that much. I think we both had the Braves over Mariners in the World Series, too. Yeah, that's... Still kind of alive. I mean, the Mariners are kind of frustrating right now, but...

What is, how does the... What does the A.L. Wild card situation? Okay, so the Razor obviously N. And then it's Blue Jays. Astros are in the top... Astros are in the, okay, so the Mariners are a game and a half back, but that's before this one's over, so they're about to be half a game back of the Astros. So still very tight between the Astros and Mariners for that final playoff spot.

And it's still technically possible the Blue Jays could blow it. And both Astros and Mariners get, and I guess it's still technically possible, the Rangers could blow it for the NL West lead, but it would take some fairly miraculous events. All right, well, player of the night for you, Christian Javier, for me, I am going to go with Seth Lugo, who we talked a lot about this season, Scott. I kind of had a stretch there where I was begging everyone to pick him up and talking about how undervalued Seth Lugo was. And then, of course, he kind of had some rough outings in the middle part of the season. But here he is, finishing strong, saved his best start of the season for last.

He came within one out of his first career complete game. And he wound up with eight and two-thirds shutout, three hits, three walks, seven strikeouts, only eight swinging strikes. but with Lugo, we know the deal. He doesn't really thrive on getting swings and misses. It's more ground balls and having good defense behind him and limiting the walks. But yeah, they let him go because I guess this is his last start of the season. He had 106 pitches to 8 and they let him come back out.

So he wound up with 123 pitches. Again, one out here from getting that complete game. He has quality starts in seven of his last eight outings. And it looks like he's going to finish this season with a 357 ERA, a 1,000. a 120 whip. And, you know, in a year where we've talked a lot about inconsistency and big blow-up starts here,

Seth Lugo has been one of the, I guess, lesser pitchers that has been consistent this year. Any thoughts on him? He's been great. Obviously, we've talked about him a lot. He's been in the sleeper pitchers a lot. He'll be part of the glob next year. And I think part of the glob that I won't be singling,

out in the mid-round's of drafts. I think he'll just be a guy to fill out my pitching staff if I draft him at all because they don't necessarily trust him to be just because he was reliable, just because he was a more reliable member of the glob this year. Doesn't mean he will be next year. That's kind of the whole idea behind the glob that all those pitchers are just kind of susceptible to the flow of the game currently. and wild swings in production.

I mean, even this year, we've seen Lugo, okay, most of the starts have been good, but the bad starts have been like seven, eight earned runs. And, yeah, I was just not confident he's going to be as consistent next year, not enough that I'm going to put a premium on him in drafts. And I do wonder where he'll wind up this offseason. He has a player option for $7,500,000.

My guess is he'll opt out of that. I think he'll be able to do a little bit better on the open market. So maybe he's back with the Padres. Maybe he's somewhere else, but I think he proved to everyone this year he's worthy of being a starting pitcher. And I think he got up to, yeah, 146 in a third. Yeah, pretty reliable pitcher all season here for the San Diego Padres. Shout out to whoever started him this week, because obviously this is a fantastic start. Let's stick with the Padres here, Scott. I just wanted to give a shout out to Juan Succo. That's right. Three for four with a double dung. He set a new career high with

35 home runs having a massive September hitting 360 with 10 homers, five steals and a 1218 OPS. For some it might be too little too late. You know, maybe you're not competing in your roto leagues or you got knocked out and head-to-head points because I guess there were points this season where Juan Soto did not live up to his draft stock, but it really just was a bad April, right? And then from May on, hitting over 290, 30 of his 35 home runs. entering Tuesday, the eighth best outfielder in Roto,

fifth best outfielder in Head to Head Points Leagues. And we spoke about him yesterday. I think he's probably going to be right in that early second round mix for next season. Mid second round is where I have him. And I had the thought when I saw this game, when I saw his September stateline 360 with 10 home runs, it's like, oh, was I wrong to move Juan Soto as low as 18th? Well, the hitters ahead of him are like Shohei Otani,

Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, I still can't move him ahead of those guys, Jose Ramirez, Trey Turner. There will come a time, and I don't know, maybe he's hinting at it now, there will come a time when he hits like 330, 340 with 35 plus homers in a season again. I am pretty confident saying Juan Soto has another season like that,

at least one in his future, his very lengthy future still to come. I think that's within his skill set. what the last two years have shown us is that just as likely to bat 260, 270, maybe not just as likely, but that's within the realm of possibilities for him too. And if that's all he does without any steals and without like, you know, 50 Homer upside

the way some of the early round hitters do, it's going to be kind of an underwhelming use of a first round pick, which is why I feel more comfortable ranking him in the second round. Now it doesn't mean he's incapable of a first round outcome. it just means it really depends on him hitting for a high batting average and that's going to be harder to forecast than some of the home run and steal outcomes for stolen base outcomes for the first and second rounders. So yeah, I think we're going to stick with him in about middle of round two,

at least in categories leagues and points leagues, he moves up to like a late first rounder because of all those walks. And even the numbers you gave, eighth best outfielder in Roto this year, fifth best in points leagues. Well, that's where he ranks among outfielders. It's not where he ranks among all hitters. And I don't think anybody was really disputing whether or not he was a good must-start hitter. I know the Juan Succo nickname was bandied about, but nobody genuinely believed he sucked.

They were just kind of frustrated that he wasn't delivering the first round outcome. Yep. And as you pointed out, again, points. league's OBP formats, obviously Juan Soto, I keep trying to catch myself because my brain just wants to say Succo now because that's how I introduced him today. But more walks

and tricouts this season and a 410 on base percentage. So for everything else, we know that skill is not going anywhere for Juan Soto. You heard the sound drop, that ball had a family. I mentioned it up at the top. Lesson learned, Scott. Do not bench

L.E. Day, LeCruz, because I did that in Tout Wars this week. And Who knows, maybe it'll cost me. He had a monster game here on Tuesday, 3 for 5 with a double dong, 4 RBI. The second home run he hit in that game, 119.2 exit velocity. He hit it 467 feet.

That is a third hardest hit ball this season, according to Statcast. And this is part of what makes Ellie Dealer crew so fun. I know he has struggled tremendously in the second half, but a game like this, it could just be right around the corner for a guy that hits the ball as hard as L.A.D. Lucruz does. Yeah, it was one of the hardest.

Like 119.3 miles per hour. Wasn't that it? Yeah. Third hardest hit the season. Hardest hit ball. Correct. Or hardest hit home run. Thirdest, third hardest hit ball. Third hardest max exit velocity.

Yeah. Yeah. Wonder where ranks among home runs. But it's, Yeah, I mean, like, there's no questioning the upside here with Ellie Dela Cruz. You know, it is kind of the same story as with O'Neill Cruz when he got called up last year. Like, the upside is so palpable because of those exit velocities and just, you know, watching him play. You can put on a show.

But can he keep the strikeouts under control enough? that he's going to be reliable for you in fantasy. It remains to be seen. The thing about Ellie de la Cruz versus O'Neill Cruz, and O'Neill Cruz has stolen base ability as well, but Ellie De La Cruz is like an elite base dealer. He is racking those things up. And that gives him such a nice floor.

There's still questions about where the batting average is going to end up, and he's still learning to elevate the ball consistently, to maximize that home run output. But just by virtue of how many bases he's going to steal for you, I don't think you have to worry too much about Ellie Delacruz being a out and out bust next year. It's just a question of how much,

how much you're willing to sell out for the upside. Again, this kid is still just 21 years old. And I think in the offseason, a point of emphasis, learning how to excel against anything that is not a fastball, because entering Tuesday, he was betting 203 against

breaking pitches, 218 against off speed, 258 against fastballs with a 490 slug against fastball. So everything else, he's kind of struggled against. I think that should be a point of emphasis here for L.A. De La Cruz. And as you mentioned, raising that launch angle here in the off season. Oh my goodness gracious, offense of the night. D-backs, they put up 15 runs on 12 hits.

They are fighting for their playoff lives as well. Kattel Marte went two for four with his 25th home run, has had a great bounce back. season hitting 281, 94 run scored, and an 858 OPS. Christian Walker, a huge game, three for five with a double dong, six RBI, and he's had a great year, 265 batting average, 33 homers, 103 RBI, 11 steals, and an 850 OPS. Oddly enough, not, not many were predicting Christian Walker to take a step forward in 2023. His numbers this year even better than last year. Yeah. And a top five first basement in both

formats, both roto and head to head points. Oddly enough, he's someone that has always hit the ball hard. Last year, 90 mile per hour average exit velocity. This season, 87.9. And I hadn't really noticed that until today, the final week of the season. But it hasn't affected his barrel rate. That's basically identical to where it was last year. So maybe he's just making softer contact at times this year, but when he puts it in the air, he's still getting the same results as he did last season. The expected stats are very similar. So, I mean, whatever's going on with the average exit velocity, it, stat cast still thinks he's basically as good as he was last year. So I don't think there's much to worry about there. I mean, other than the fact he's

going to be 33 next year and not going to last forever, but you do something twice like Christian Walker has done now, really three times because he was pretty good in 2019 also. I think you can draft him

with a fair amount of trust. How high would he be among first baseman? Well, I mean, you'd obviously put him behind Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonzo,

Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, I would say. That might be it. He might be seventh among first baseman. I don't know if the Cody Bellinger won as a lock. It might be. I mean, I understand the reasons to doubt Bellinger, but you really think people might draft Walker ahead of Bellinger?

I'm not saying nobody will rank him. I don't know. I don't think that many people are going to rank him ahead of. Bellinger. Yeah, probably not. He's got the outfield eligibility too.

He's got more steals potential. Yeah. Batting average potential. I hear you. Christian Walker's just been so good, man.

I mean, I understand the idea I'm going to pass up Cody Bellinger to take Walker later. I can understand that rationale, but just in terms of pure rankings,

where did they go relative to each other in that mock draft? This mock draft is getting such outsized detention. Cody Bellinger, I think we did the first six rounds of a 15 team league, so top 90 picks.

And Bellinger was drafted. I don't know if Christian Walker was. Let's find out. No, he was not. Cody Bellinger went at pick 55. And Christian Walker did not go in the top 90 picks. All right. Maybe I'm way off then, at least based on this first mock draft.

That might be. Look, if he doesn't go among the top 90 picks, that's going to be. That puts dollar signs in my eyes. That would be justification to pass up Bellinger to take Walker later. But... Might be. We'll see if he actually goes that late when everybody's drafting. All right.

Well, don't want to bring the podcast down here, but obviously we lost a big name in the baseball world and the baseball family here on Tuesday. Rest and peace of the Hall of Famer, Brooks Robinson regarded as one of, if not the best defensive third baseman of all time. So obviously a somber note here, but rest in peace to him and, you know, thoughts are with his family and friends. Let's take our first break when we return.

We will talk about some of these young pitchers who are, you know, keep getting it done. Ryan Pepio, Michael King, Reese Olson, trying to project them for next season. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in. Let's talk about some of these young pitchers who have been awesome recently. Ryan Pepio, he did it again this time in Corse Field, six innings, one run, nine strikeouts with A career high, 19 swinging strikes on 95 pitches, 16 of those coming on the change-up.

Yeah, I don't know that I've ever recommended a one-star pitcher at Colorado before. Well, I guess part of the thinking there was he might get two starts, Pepio. I think he's still like. I mean, this wasn't a start. So even weirder because a zero-star pitcher, he followed an opener to deliver these six-one run innings. But the point is Pepio continued to pitch well,

in that difficult environment. In fact, you could argue this was his best appearance. Yeah, with the nine strikeouts. Because that had been the one thing. As big of a strikeout pitcher as Pepio had been throughout his minor league career, even last year in the majors. He hadn't been striking out a lot of batters during this impressive run he was on. But now he gets nine strikeouts in this one, 19 swinging strike, 16 on the changeup alone,

which he threw more than usual. He has now, Ryan Pepeyo thrown six in, despite coming, you know, despite not consistently starting, he has thrown six plus innings in four straight appearances, so Workhorse. He has four total walks in seven appearances this year. He had more than that in just two last year. He had eight walks in his first two appearances in the majors last year. He has four and seven appearances this year. He's been lights out with the Dodgers.

He's thrown 39 innings this season, 185 ERA, a 0.74 whip. Those 35 strikeouts to four walks. As you mentioned, a 12.3% swinging strike rate for Ryan Pepio. Reese Olson. I think I said that wrong. Let me correct my... No, I said it right. Oh, he had more walks than that in just one appearance last year.

Four total walks and seven appearances this year. He had five in his first appearance last year. Oof. Yeah, it's been a complete 180 here for Ryan Pepio, in terms of the control 0.9 walks per 9. This is still a really small sample size we're dealing with only 39 innings again. We'll see how he looks in the postseason, how he's deployed,

and if he can handle that kind of pressure, I suppose. But the only place it could go is up, I think, Scott, because if he performs well in the playoffs, all lies on him and the Dodgers and what they're doing, yeah, we could get some serious helium going into next season. Reese Olson, another strong outing. This one against the Royals, five and two-thirds innings.

Two runs allowed, only one of those was earned. He had seven strikeouts, 22 swinging strikes on 92 pitches, seven on the change-up, five on the fastball, five on the slider, three on the curve, two on the sinker,

everything working in this start. He threw a few more change-ups in this one, a pitch that has a 34% whiff rate so far. The slider also has a 41% whiff rate. We've said a lot of these same things recently, but he's got two plus pitches that get whiffs, and he throws hard. He throws mid-90s with this,

fastball, I think there's a lot to like there. Last six starts for Reese Olson, a 151 ERA, a 0.87 whip right around a strikeout per inning. And it looks like he's due to make another start this weekend up against the Guardians as well. Any thoughts on Reese Olson? Yeah, I think digging a little deeper what's allowed him to take off here in September, because we knew he had the great slider, the slider with a better than 40% whiff rate. But what he's done in September to deliver a 144 ERA in these five starts is throw his change up more, which hasn't been as good of a swing and miss pitch on his own. But I think it's helping to keep hitters off the fastball and just that third pitch to round out the arsenal instead of relying so heavily on the slider.

And it has led to fewer strikeouts in the month of September. but it's just made Rees Olson a bit more a more rounded pitcher. And you mentioned he had 22 whiffs in this one. Seven came on the change-up. So, you know, as he throws it more, it might be getting more effective too. I think overall it's a step in the right direction for Rees Olson, and he is making a pretty strong case to be,

fantasy sleeper next year as well. And unfortunately, he was started against me in the podcast league. You should have been mine. You know, I was thinking, I was thinking about this earlier today. You can tell it's not bothering me at all. So I bid one dollar on Reese Olson. I had $2, though. I had one.

I did one dollar because I thought I had the tiebreaker and would get him for just $1. I was thinking today, it didn't even matter. There was no reason for me to save a dollar for my next bit. Like I might as well just bid the two because the other guy would have bid the one on his favorite player. And regardless of whether I had $1 or $0 left for my next bid, it would have gone to me. The third player would have gone to me either way because he would have had nothing but $0 bids left. I would have had nothing but $0 bids left, but his bid was the more recent bit. So there was absolutely no reason for me to bid $1

on Reese Olson. Da! Yeah! Paul Blackburn instead. He's one sleeper pitcher this week of mine who has not delivered on the sleeper potential so far. Minus seven and a half points was his start Tuesday. So that's a 20-point disparity between what Reese Olson has done this week

and what Paul Blackburn has done. I'm losing. I'm losing right now. I might lose the whole phone, Frank. There's still a lot of baseball left, Scott. What do we have? Five days left. We will not stop grumbling about it until I know I've won. We shall see.

What if I don't win? We'll see. I'm grumbling about it all off season. I'll be cursing the name Rees Olson. The last name here. You're tired of hearing about it, I know. As part of this group is Michael King, who was at the Blue Jays, back-to-back starts against them.

Six shutout innings, only one hit. Five walks, uncharacteristic for him, but did have five strikeouts in this one. Maybe the workload kind of adding up a little bit here. I notice his velocity was down around one mile per hour on each of Michael King's pitches. And now as a starter this season, he has made eight starts, a 149 ERA, a 105 whip,

50 strikeouts over 36 and a third innings for Michael King. Looks like he will start again this weekend at the Royal. off the top of your head, Scott. Anything, a bunch can change this off season. But how would you rank these three as sleepers heading into next season? Michael King, Ryan Pepio, Reese Olson. Hmm, that's...

So, Olson will be third. I'm debating King or Pepio, number one. I think I'm going to lean King because he's... I think he has a bit more strikeout potential and I think the Yankees are less likely to to play games with his workload

with the way they deploy him than the Dodgers will. It might get frustrating for Pepio next year. Maybe they don't. Maybe they just turn him loose in the rotation, but I think it's more likely that the Yankees do that with King. So I'll go King 1, Pepio 2,

Olson 3 in terms of sleeper appeal next year. I just thought of a great soundbite too for Michael King and it's too late in the season. So I hope he is a sleeper for next year and I hope we're excited about him because I will make that sound bite and I will not reveal it because I want it to be a surprise

but honestly I'm not sure how many people will know it is from a wrestling movie anyway not so young pitchers who have also been performing I guess just sporadically throughout the year we've talked a lot about these guys as well Bobby Miller an awesome start

also in Corse Field seven innings two runs nine strikeouts to zero walks he had 16 swinging strikes on 91 pitches we saw some big voice velocity dropped from him in this one. Maybe by design, maybe it was something about pitching in Cordes Field, but the slider

was down over two miles per hour. The change-up was down right around two miles per hour for Bobby Miller. Didn't matter. He was awesome. And Kyle Bradish continues to dominate as well. He was up against the Nationals. Eight shutout innings, three hits, two walks, four strikeouts. He has gone six plus

innings in 15 of his last 16 starts. Kyle Bradish down to a 286 IRA and a 105 whip. on the year. Scott, are both of these pitchers kind of in the glob? And if so, can you see yourself

targeting either one with that, you know, that upside that we look for? Braddish and who is the other one? Bobby Miller. I think Bobby Miller should be regarded as part of the glob given that,

you know, he has an ERA 389. Now, I do like some of what he's done beyond that, six innings or more and eight of his last nine starts. But an ERA of 389 and the strike, what's the strikeout rate? It's probably underwhelming, too. It is after this start, he's at 8.6Ks per nine. So, I mean, he's an upside member of the glob. He is one I might intentionally target from that group.

but I do think he'll be ranked within it and I have been impressed by the workload like I said, six plus settings in eight of nine. Braddish, it's been so impressed of what he's done here since mid-June basically and let's see. Let's find the most optimal end point here. So in his last, so in 16 starts leading into this one,

Kyle Bradish was at 9.8 K-per-9. So he'd been getting strikeouts. I mean, you look at the game log, nine strikeouts, nine strikeouts, eight strikeouts, eight-strikeouts, eight, like there's a lot of sevens, eights and nines in the strikeout column for Kyle Bradish. So he's not,

he's succeeding in a way that, even by traditional evaluation standards, we can all get behind. And he's working deep into games. And I know, Eno Seris' stuff plus model loved him coming into the year. And that's why,

I mean, you know, I was looking at Enosarous's influence too and saying Kyle Braddish, you know, I was giving him credit beyond his strikeout rate because of how much Eno Seris' model liked him. And he's been great. And I think it's, I think he's a very talented

pitcher. He's got a great offense behind him, a good park to pitch in. he might be a little bit ahead of the glob next year. I mean, you compare Kyle Braddish to somebody like Zach Eflin or... Even Justin Steele, I don't... I think it's kind of close. Yeah. No, I mean, so what's Braddish's ERA after this start?

It's below three. It's below three, and Justin Steele's is above three now. So Bratish is at 286. I believe Justin Steele is like 306. Yeah? and Braddish has more innings. He's consistently worked deeper into games. He has...

Actually, he doesn't have more innings, sorry. I think on a per-start basis, he has more innings. No, he's only one start ahead. Okay, he doesn't have more innings. But he's been pitching deep into games the past couple months, that stretch that I highlighted. There are very few sub-six-innings starts in there. So, yeah, I think they're very close.

I think they're very close. And I might actually prefer Braddish next year. You mentioned that Stuff Plus metric from Enosaris, which does attempts to do exactly what it sounds like. It measures literally the stuff and the shape of pitches from obviously all different pitchers in the league. And it wasn't just the Stuff Plus entering the season, Scott. It's also within the season. So Kyle Bradish on the year entering Tuesday,

he was tied for second among all pitchers in Stuff Plus. with Spencer Strider. So, take that for what it's worth, according to that metric. You know, Kyle Braddish has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, and it certainly seems like it based on the ratios that he's provided this season. I mentioned at the top, we've got some rookie hitters that are finishing strong, and some names that we've talked about recently, Scott, but we'll start off with some corner infielders here.

Jordan Walker, he went two for four in the month of September, batting 313 with four homers, a steel, and an 898 OPS. Christian Encarnacion Strand. He also stayed hot one for five with his 12th home run. And over his last 20 games, he's batting 366 with eight homers, 18 RBI, 91.2 average exit velocity. Any quick thoughts here on Jordan Walker and CES? I am loving the way things are going for Christian and Carnacian Strand here

to close out the season. And I've gathered, I mean, given the reception Joey Vado got, in his last home game with the Reds. He's probably not going to be in the picture next year. And Incarnazion Strand is going to get a chance to run with the first base job. I think he's going to be a sleeper for 30 home runs. Yeah, I think so, certainly playing every day in that ballpark. And as hard as Encarnacion Strand hits the ball, I think so too.

Some outfielders finishing strong, Parker Meadows went two for four with his third home run in 32 games with the Tigers. Lower batting average here, 223, but he walks a lot. He's got three homers, seven steals in just 32 games. That is a 14 homer, 32 steel pace over 150 games. So it could be a potential late round sleeper for next season. Williare Abraeu with the Red Sox, two for four with a double and two RBI. He's played 23 games with Boston. 371 batting average, two homers, three steals, a 1,000 OPS on the nose. And Matt Walner, One for three with a grand slam. It was his 13th home run of the year. He's played 72 games this year, hitting 249 with a 373 on base percentage. He's very much so three true outcomes, Matt Walner, but he hits the ball hard.

He puts it in the air. And among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Matt Walner's 17% barrel rate is tied for ninth best. So if he gets an everyday role for next season, it wouldn't surprise me if we see a Jake Berger like breakout here from Matt Walner. I think that's possible, Scott. Any thoughts on those three? Yeah, I like Walner a lot.

Every day. You know, I think he's going to be somebody who starts for the twins most days next year. It's just a question of how much will he play against lefties? His numbers are bad against lefties. He's gotten to play against them fairly consistently, more consistently than unlike Edward Julian. but maybe he's shown it.

So we'll have to keep an eye on that. Obviously, it'll go, it'll say a lot about Matt Walner's fantasy value for next year. But even as a platoon bat, the home run production should be significant enough for him to matter in five outfielder leagues. And to be drafted in five outfielder leagues, I would say. It's legit. The guy, the guy can hit the ball a long way when he is able to make con. contact. And he's done a pretty good job of it. I think given his profile hitting 249 is about as good as you can hope for.

And it's been nice to see him do it. I also like Willier-Breyu a lot. There aren't many flaws I see in his game. He walks a lot. He certainly hits the ball with enough authority to send it out of the park, which we saw plenty of in the minors as well. again, it comes down to how big of a priority are the Red Sox going to make them next year. Because Seidon Raphaelah has had a great debut here to end the season. He's terrific defensively.

They can play him as shortstop some, but they also have Trevor Story. So do they shift Story over to second base? That's a possibility. But Jaron Duran is going to be back next year. Adam Duvall. Let me see. I think he's under. contracts.

No, he's not. Adam Duval's going to be gone, presumably. They have Tristan Kasa's coming back? Yeah, of course. Justin Turner is not under contract, so maybe he'll leave. Yeah.

So there we'll have to keep an eye on what the Red Sox do. I think it'll go a long way to telling us how much they value will you're a Brayu. But if they show that they do, then I'm going to like him as a laid outfield sleeper,

probably even more than Matt Walner. All right. And then some catchers that are finishing strong here. Bo Nailer 1 for 3 with his 10th home run. 3RBI, his last 25 games, batting 333 with 6 homers, 17 runs, 16 RBI, 4 steals, and more walks and strikeouts. 16 walks to 13 strikeouts, which I think is a pretty underrated aspect of Bo Nailer's game. And Austin Wells, who we spoke about yesterday,

back-to-back games with a home run and his last eight games. batting 276 with three homers. I know we've talked about these guys a lot recently, Scott, but I think in two catcher leagues, they're Bo Nailer even more so than Wells. Like he has more prospect pedigree, he has more upside. But I think those guys will be in the mix

as like sleeper catchers next season. Yeah, I've had a hard time ranking Nailer. I've been working on catcher rankings the past couple days. And other than Real Muto, Nailer is maybe the one catcher, who could give you double-digit steals next year? Because Dalton Varser's not going to be eligible there anymore. M.J. Melendez is not going to be eligible there anymore,

not that he's been a big base dealer. But real muto will be there, and that's about it, him and Naylor. So it's going to be a question of how the guardians seem as much as any organization to value defense behind the plate. And they've been reluctant to make use of bat first prospects back there. Seems like Nailer's breaking the mold late this season, but maybe just because they don't have anybody better.

So we'll see if they bring in some kind of catcher to split time with him this off season. The fact he's a left-handed hitter doesn't help the cause, I would say. But I like the upside, and he's flashing enough of it down the stretch here that at present I have him ranked 14th in Roto at catcher, a little lower in points leagues. because I put guys like Kiebert Ruiz ahead of him in that format,

which may look foolish in the end because Naylor strike out the walk ratio. Certainly in the minors has been good, and he's walked a fair amount in the majors as well. But for now, 14th in Roto League, so I have a hard time moving them ahead of guys like Logan O'Hoppy and Francisco Alvarez, but I think it's in the discussion. Could maybe get him up as high as 12th. And take this for what it's worth.

I'm sure there are many more defensive catcher statistics out there, but according to Stackast, Bo Nailer is 74th percentile in framing this year and 70th percentile in pop time. Yeah, hard to complain about that. Yeah, it sounds like he's been pretty good behind the plate,

so I don't know. I kind of like him. Will he play against lefties? He's been really bad against lefties so far, but so far, so good. And finishing really strong here for Bo Nailer. Let's take our final break. When we return, we'll hit some news and notes. and I've got some leftovers.

We'll do that right after this. The news and notes. Corey Seeger exited Tuesday's game after getting hit by a pitch on his forearm and he initially stayed in the game but was later removed. For now, they're just calling it a contusion and we'll hope all as well

because I've got him in Tout Wars. I need every point I could get. Luis Robert was placed in the aisle with a mild left MCL sprain ending his season and he wraps up a breakout campaign batting 264 with 30. 38 home runs and 20 steals for Luis Robert. Max Scherzer up the intensity of his flat ground throwing on Monday.

We're only two weeks into a projected 8 to 12 week timetable for Scherzer who was diagnosed with a low-grade strain of the terrace major muscle in his right shoulder. I would be surprised even if we see him at any point in the postseason. I don't think it's going to happen. Randy and Rosarena has now missed three straight with right quad tightness. Felix Bautista threw a 25 pitch simulated game on Tuesday. He was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow, but the Orioles remain hopeful that he'll be able to return

and potentially help them in the postseason. Matt McLean re-agravated his right oblique strain and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. Bad timing here as the Marlins placed Tanner Scott on the paternity list and could miss up to three days. It doesn't mean that he will miss all three, but there's a chance. Unfortunately.

I was very confident that Evan Carter would start both games against the lefties this week. And guess what? He did not start on either Monday or Tuesday. So hopefully he starts the rest of the week. The hitter picks not working out as well as the sleeper. You know what? You know how we talked about on Monday's episode? You know what?

I think I'm going to move Evan Carter ahead of James Outman, ahead of Jason Hayward, ahead of those two. And what did they do? What did Jason Hayward and James Alman? Well, James Alman had a four-hit game. Jason Hayward had a three-hit game. Yeah.

We'll see how the rest of the week goes, but I probably should have left Carter well enough alone. Still lots of baseball to be played, Scott. Five games left. Come on, good old Evan Carter. I'm sure he'll do something. Ryan Malkasel took batting practice on Tuesday and is likely a couple days away

from being activated from the IL. J. Mer Candelario, is continuing his progression through baseball activities. He was placing the IL September 12th due to a lower back strain and still has a chance to return before the end of the regular season. Adbert Aalzlai will face live hitters this week. He's been out since September 10th with a mild forearm strain and could also return before the end of the regular season.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said he thinks Carlos Correa could return from the IEL during their weekend series in Colorado. I've had some people asking me about Willie Castro as well. I know I was kind of pumping him up last week as a sleeper for this week because of that schedule. And he hasn't played the past couple days because he's dealing with a back injury, but it sounds like he should be back on Wednesday. So hopefully that is the case for Willie Castro. John Gray underwent imaging on his right wrist on Tuesday. The results are of which are not yet known.

Wilmer Flores has missed two straight with right knee discomfort. Anthony Rizzo said Monday that he is feeling significantly better and expects to have a normal offseason. He was placed on the IL in early August with post-concussion syndrome. That's great to hear. Yes, indeed. You never know if that's going to impact the rest of his career. And we still don't know that, but the positive report is great to hear. And one of my 20 bold predictions in that article I wrote last week,

20 bold predictions for 2024 was that Anthony Rizzo would bounce back with a 30 homer season. I think he's still great fit at Yankee Stadium. and he was on that kind of pace before the concussion happened and spent so long playing after that that he just totally ruined his numbers. Yesterday I told you that Garrett Mitchell would return on Tuesday and it turns out that was a lie. He did not return and they're saying saving him for the postseason roster after all. Any interest in these pitchers over the weekend? At least for now, it looks like they're lined up to start. Maybe you have some different information, Scott, but let's talk about them.

Josiah Gray has pitched well in three starts since that little extended break. He was at the Orioles here on Tuesday. He allowed one run over six innings. He had seven strikeouts, 14 swinging strikes on 98 pitches, and the Nationals only have five games this week, but CBS has Gray lined up to start Sunday at the Braves. We probably don't want to do that anyway. Bailey Ober had a solid start against the Oakland A's,

five shutout innings, two hits, zero walks, eight strikeouts, with 16 swinging strikes. And the twins have already clinched the AL Central. I don't know why I struggled to remember that for a second. So they could kind of like rearrange things for their postseason rotation, but they could. And because they've moved Kenta Maeda to the bullpen for this last week, it sounds like, I imagine Bailey Ober is going to be their number three starter in the playoffs behind Pablo Lopez and Sunny Gray.

Well, they have Joe Ryan too. I forgot about Ryan. Okay, Abe would Ober, Ober, Ober, Bobby Abert. No, Bailey Ober would be number four then. And so there's a good chance he ends of making that start, I think, just to keep

them on regular rest. They're not going to need a fourth starter probably for the first series. Well, it's a three-game series. So they want to need a fourth starter for that first series. The problem is that that start is in course field on Sunday. It is a course field. And he's not Ryan Pepio, but he's pretty good.

If there's any pitch combo that plays well at Cores Field, it's fastball changeup. And one thing I've noticed with Overson's returning is he's thrown his change up a lot more since coming back from the miners. Probably pairs well with that fastball. He threw it more than any other pitch. It was the most he's thrown his change up all season in this. start here on Tuesday. So,

you know, that's going to be, those two pitches are going to be less susceptible to the thin air than like a breaking ball would be.

And, I don't know, I'm feeling lucky. Feeling lucky. If you're comfortable in strikeouts and wins in a category's league by the time Sunday

rolls around, you don't need to bother with Ober and the potential ERA risk. But if you're not, then I Say, go for it. Reid Detmer's turned in one of the best starts of the season for him.

He was facing Texas, seven innings, one run, seven strikeouts. Still had four walks in this one, but he's now made four starts in September with a 182 ERA and a 114 whip. Reed Detmer's is lined up to face the Oakland A's potentially this weekend. So I think, heck yeah, that sounds pretty good to me. Yeah, it does. It does. with Debtmer's

you know he threw his slider only 16% of the time in this one and that's been pretty constant for him in September and yet he has a 182 ERA 114 1.4-WIP 9.5 strikeouts per 9 and 4 September starts and I'm just wondering

if a key to his redemmer's success is a little unpredictability like yeah that slider can be great but if he's leaning on it too much and not varying his arse enough. Maybe it's it's just, it's too easy for

hitters to, you know, time it up. And I don't know. He's varied his pitch selection more here in September and gotten good results. So that might be some reason for optimism for Dettmer's heading into next season. Last but not least, Miles Michaelis,

he had a great start seven innings one run, but I don't think we're using Miles Michaelis this weekend with everything on the line. So, if anything, it sounds like, focus on Reed Detmer's and Bailey Ober for this upcoming weekend. We did have ourselves a few

pitchers duels here on Tuesday night. Might be the last time we play that drop this season, so I had to make sure I got it in. Mitch Keller at Arenola and Mitch Keller, six innings, two runs, six strikeouts for him, 12 swinging strikes in this one. He's kind of alternated

quality starts with awful starts over his last five outings, but that's kind of Mitch Keller experience here this season. This is like a pitching duel between the most frustrating pitching duo of 20, 23. I think that's fair. Aranola on the other side, six and two thirds innings, one run, eight strikeouts to zero walks. He had 17 swinging strikes on 99 pitch on 90 pitches, excuse me, back to back quality

starts for him. You know, the problem this year, home runs. Career high, 1.5 home runs per nine, 15.7 home run to fly ball, That's the third highest of Aranola's career. So, yeah, he's giving up the long ball this year. Any thoughts on Keller and Nola? I mean, not really any new thoughts. I think both could be great.

But they've let us down enough times this year that they deserve to be ranked within the glob next year. They will be targets I single out in the glob. But I don't think anybody's going to be clamoring to get them. And that's, you know, that's saying something for Aaron Nola, who's been kind of a fixture within the top 12 for several years now. Maybe I'm wrong about it. The fact he has, you know, if he finishes the schedule strong,

if he has a good playoff showing maybe it'll change things, but just based on a season stat line and as many ugly starts have been mixed in there. You know, you look at the game log, plenty of great starts too, plenty of starts that you only see from ace caliber pitchers. Nola still has those. but the bad stars have been so bad that the overall stat line is pretty suspect.

And this is top-notch-level analysis here, but go check out Aranola's numbers in the even years of his career. Next year, 2024, baby. Let's make it happen with Aranoa. We don't know where he's pitching in 2024. He's a free agent. That adds another complication. The other pitching duel here, it was Michael King at Kevin Gausman. we spoke about Michael King. Kevin Gosman back-to-back starts here against the Yankees. Very successful ones.

Seven shutout innings, five strikeouts with 16 swinging strikes for him. He's down to a 316 ERA, 1-18 whip, which we talked a little bit about who deserves to be the SP3 on yesterday's podcast for next season. Kevin Gosman, pretty good a very good ERA, lots of strikeouts. But that whip is consistently pretty high and as much hard contact as he gives up. know that that's going to change. Well, I was looking at that today. And remember last year, he just, his BABIP was totally out of control. And it's, it's gotten better this year.

It's still not great. But, you know, last year he was 9.7 hits per 9 this year, 8.1 hits per 9, the BABIP 363 last year, 327 this year. So, you know, the walk rate has about doubled. It's still not a bad walk rate, but it's gotten worse. So the whip, which isn't bad, but it's not great either. It's bad for a different reason for Kevin Gosman this year than last year, which I think gives me some optimism.

I mean, look, you get 230 strikeouts with an ERA in the low threes in this environment. I don't care what your whip looks like. You're an ace. But are you willing to invest a third round pick as a top five starting pitcher? That's what it's going to cost, you know? Probably not. But we were talking on yesterday's show about how I don't think there's a clear choice for number three in the SP rankings. I don't know who I'm going to put there.

I kind of don't want to have to rank a third starting pitcher. I'm reading toward Kevin Gosman being number three. Cole Regens. It won't be Regans. One of my bold predictions is he leads the A. Allen strikeouts. He might be the number three pitcher and fantasy if he does that. All right. Let's talk about some other pitching leftovers here.

George Kirby turned in a quality start against the Astros, six shutout innings, five hits, one walk, four strikeouts. Weird moment in that game. Scott, I don't know if you saw any clips on Twitter or X, but a fan threw a ball onto the field which hit George Kirby. It was, that's just weird. I feel like, hey, look, you don't see stuff like that. often because it should never happen but yeah it was especially weird to

actually see it happen in this one on the complete opposite end of the spectrum Hunter Green as soon as we start to buy back in in the final week of the season he got crushed at the Guardians three innings seven runs allowed three home runs allowed the velocity was down in this one for Hunter Green his previous three starts were all pretty damn good but this is part of the 14 strikeouts in his last start this is part of the problem it's just giving up hard contact, fly balls. He's just prone to giving up home runs.

And pitching in a place like Cleveland, you know, that's not really a place where a lot of home runs are hit. So it's, I don't know. I mean, he is the ultimate saboteur of this year because everybody started him. Coming off that start, he just had with the 14 strikeouts, seeing that he had the nationals on the schedule this week, a two-star week.

St. Louis next time, another good matchup. So he has a chance to partially salvage it. but he's not going to have a good ERA this week, that's for sure. And, you know, surprisingly, his start, I assumed everybody would be starting. And his start percentage on CBS is only 55. It could be that, like, enough leagues out there just aren't even counting the final week of season,

like they're done playing. And so, obviously, the people who have green in those leagues had no reason to activate him. But if not, I guess it was a good choice to sit him. I have a different theory. I think a lot of the people that had Hunter Green on their teams this year probably didn't make it this far. Oh, yeah, that could be it too.

Obviously, it wasn't a great year for Hunter Green. Shout out to Chris Paddock who made his first appearance since May 8th of last year, and he pitched out of the bullpen. Didn't perform well in this one. He gave up three runs over two innings. He gave up a home run. But the velocity was up a bunch. This is like rookie season, Chris Paddock we saw here.

the average 95.9 miles per hour on the fastball. His changeup was up two and a half miles per hour from the last time we saw him. I'm not sure this will matter at all, but he signed through 2025. Sunny Gray is a free agent this offseason. I think there's a chance that Chris Paddock will get a chance to start for the Twins next year.

I mean, yeah, I assume so. I assume he will. That's going to be a name to keep in mind. I'm rooting for it. The Sheriff. Let's get him back on track, baby. Some hitting leftovers. Nolan Jones went two for three with his 19th home run in game one of their double header and then added two more hits in game two.

He has played 101 games this year with the Rockies. Batting 293, 19 homers, 17 steals, a 930 OPS. He's 79th percentile in sprint speed. So I think he's going to continue to run. I think he's a candidate to go 25, 25 next year. I don't think that's crazy for him. 162 game pays is closer to 30-30. I mean, that's the safer projection would be 25-25.

One of my bold predictions in the 20-bolt predictions article is that Nolan Jones would put up second round numbers next year. Nice. Let's do it. Let's make it happen. How did this breakout happen, by the way, for Nolan Jones? He mentioned last off-season he was 100% healthy for the first time in a long time. Obviously, that helps. He also credits his parents for reminding him to have fun on the diamond. I just, I thought that was a fun. Watched like Rookie of the Year and a little big league before coming up with that advice.

Yeah, it was like the message of every kid's, like 90s kids sports movie was, don't worry so much, just have fun. And then you start winning. Yeah. Like, I don't know. I had a hard time buying that even as a kid. Like, yeah, I don't know that that really works. And I don't know how much fun you can have when you play for the Rockies,

but Nolan Jones is finding a way to have fun right now. Ronald Acuna, by the way, he's not done yet. One for four with his 41st home run. Also has those 68 steals. Stop hitting home runs, Acuna. Hit some singles, steal some bags. Let's get that 40-70 out of the way, right? Because, come on.

Let's make that happen. And I saw Bobby Witt was caught stealing today. Yeah. What the heck, man. We need to get him to 30-50. So I can cite that fun stat all offseason and into next year. Yeah, let's get it. The call to the bullpen, a few updates here for.

For the Orioles, Yanir Cano struck out the side for his eighth save of the season. For the Phillies, Craig Kimbrel got the eighth inning once again with a one-run lead. He gave up a solo homer to Henry Davis. Jose Alvarado would pitch in the ninth, and then the Phillies eventually won in extra innings. For the Yankees, Clay Holmes allowed a hit but picked up his 23rd save. That's back-to-back days with a save for him. For Tampa Bay, Pete Fairbanks struck out the side for his 25th. for the Braves, Ryssel Iglesias struck out two for his 31st.

Did you watch that game, by the way, Scott? That was a crazy game for the Braves. I did. It was more so a crazy game for the Cubs, right? And just blowing that, Say, Suzuki just losing the ball in the air. It's can't really happen. Not a good way to lose when you're fighting for your playoff life. No, no, it is not.

For the Cardinals, Ryan Helsey, struck out the side for his 13 save. I forgot to add this one in here. Tyler Kinley got the save for the Rockies in game one of their doubleheader. And then Josh Hader in that West Coast game picked up his 30 second save of the season. To stream or not to stream, we will start with Wednesday. And we have some other names that were added to the list. Yesterday we said Ranger Suarez against the pirates, Wade Miley against the Cardinals. Brandon fought at the White Sox.

we also now have... Yeah, don't feel great about the thought one, but if you need a third, that's who I'd pick. Two youngsters that were added to the list. Got Darius Vines against the Cubs and Emmett Sheehan at the Rockies. Any interest there? I mean, Sheehan's looked a lot better lately.

Gotten a lot more whiffs, but I don't feel confident he's going to give you even five innings. And then you have the coarse field effect that you also have to worry about. So I'm going to pass on him. He would be my fourth choice if we needed to go that deep, but I'd rather not do it. On Thursday, I think the clear standout is Sawyer Gibson Long against the Royals.

Yeah. But right now, there's so many TBDs on the schedule. So on tomorrow's podcast, we'll have a better idea of who's starting on Thursday, but we don't really have much. Yeah, I guess. Maybe all TBDs from here to the end. Who knows? We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank.

Thanks, as always for tuning. in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.