Fantasy Baseball Today - Prospects-Only Mock Draft Recap; Alec Mills Deep Dive (04/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 24, 2020

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects but first we're taking a deeper look at Alec Mills (4:00). Who is Alec Mills and what is his appeal? ... Before we get into the prospects-only mock draft, we're revealing how we evaluate prospects (8:42). How should you weigh production vs. tools and pedigree? ... We're diving into round one and taking a closer look at Jarred Kelenic and Royce Lewis (25:00). Who would you rather have between Kelenic and Dylan Carlson? Why is Chris so high on Lewis despite his rough 2019? ... Evaluating prospects is hard, evaluating 17-year old prospects is even tougher (34:12). How should you handle somebody like Jasson Dominguez in the Yankees organization? ... Chris actively stayed away from pitching in this draft. Why was that (38:15)?. How does Scott handle pitchers in a prospect context? ... We're revealing our final rosters and talking MLB comps for a select few prospects (43:30). ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo Welcome everybody to fantasy baseball today. April 24th, Happy Friday. Chris and Scott are here with me. And Chris, you mentioned you're a Carly Ray Jepson fan, right? Oh, yeah.

Is she the one who sings a song? It's Friday, Friday. Oh, Jesus, man, that is offensive. That song was from Rebecca Black. Oh. It was a viral sensation, but not a, not a serious song.

You're being very offensive. Carly Ray Jepson has released two of the best pop albums of the last 25 years. Call Me Maybe is a stone cold classic. Okay, that's what I was thinking of. Please show some respect to the Queen CRJ. The Queen. I've never heard her referred to as the Queen CRJ. Well, that's your fault because she is the Queen.

You might be right. In other news, happy birthday, Chipper Jones, Omar Visckel, and that cheater, Carlos Beltron, if they're out there listening. Speaking of cheaters, the Red Sox were given their penalties the other day. Scott, did you have a chance to take a gander at these penalties? They lost a second round pick. They were banned from their replay operator. And Alex Corr has also banned through the 2020 playoffs.

So basically a slap on the wrist, Scott. Yeah, yeah. And honestly, this was closer to what I thought, happened to the Astros. I thought they really brought the hammer down on the Astros, despite what many would tell you. So, you know, after the Astros thing, I expected them to bring down the hammer similarly on the Red Sox,

but I guess there wasn't as much evidence that it was so widespread throughout the organization. So they were reluctant to go that far, I guess. I mean, the whole thing sounds kind of stupid. Like, I guess this is what happens when you give players immunity because then you have a situation where obviously something was done wrong and the only person who actually really gets punished is a replay room operator who nobody's ever heard of. But like if they're being punished, it's because they were gaining a competitive advantage and there's

really not a punishment here. Like they lost the second round pick. Okay. They lost like a 7% chance that they get an average major league player. They did, not officially, but they made it official after this was announced. They did lose their manager. Right, but he was already gone. Yeah.

There's not actually like a punishment. Now, he was gone because of his involvement in this, but. Right. It was kind of a self-inflicted punishment, I guess. Yeah, it just, I don't know, like this was their second time being caught doing something like this, too. and it's just like, now it was just the one guy in the replay room.

Nobody else knew about it. It seems a little absurd to me. Nothing happened. It's crazy. Basically nothing happened. So, I don't know. With both the Houston Astros of Boston Red Sox, a bunch of cheaters,

just like Carlos Beltrane. But happy birthday, Carlos Beltron. Today on the show, we're going to deep dive Alec Mills. Who is Alec Mills? Well, you're about to find out. This was one of the Apple podcast reviews that came through and they requested a deep dive on Alec Mills.

So you ask and we shall deliver. We're also going to review a prospects only draft mock that we did yesterday. So we went about 15 rounds deep, 12 teams, head-to-head points, prospects only. So that's, you know, for you dynasty players out there. We're going to get into that a little bit later on. But Alec Mills, originally I thought this was a joke when this game. through on our podcast review. But a 28-year-old journeyman who hasn't really been given a fair chance in the majors,

last season made nine appearances with the Chicago Cubs, including four starts, had a 275 ERA, a 117 whip, with 42 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. It was a small sample size, but he did show some solid skills during this time. 12.5% swinging strike rate, 49% ground ball rate. 2.75 walks per 9. He doesn't throw particularly hard. He's around 90 miles per hour, but apparently during the spring,

his velocity was up about a tick on the fastball. And I watched a spring training start of his earlier today. His secondary stuff has some really interesting movement. Like his change-up, it's not like Luis Castillo. It's like a poor man's Luis Castillo. Like, he gets some pretty good movement on his change-up and on some of his breaking pitches there with the slider and the curve. So there is apparently some intrigue.

I heard his name kind of floated about a little bit throughout spring training as a sleeper. He's battling out, you know, Tyler Chatwood or was battling out Tyler Chatwood for the fifth starter job in the Cubs rotation. Scott, what do you know about Alec Mills, if anything? And are you interested? Well, to be honest, when you first mentioned the name just now, my first thought was of the old Orioles reliever, Alan Mills. I thought that's who we were going to talk about for a second. So that's, uh, I'm reluctant to say too much because I don't know how much

patience our audience has for a full-length Alec Mills discussion. It did seem like Tyler Chatwood had, was coming close to wrapping up the fifth starter job. So we're talking about a 28 year old, an unproven 28 year old who's likely designated for long relief here. Uh, and that's, that's about as far as I want to go with it. yeah it doesn't seem uh i don't know like he he looks interesting like from just looking at what he did last year like there there are some not uh uninteresting things about him most specifically the 67

mile per hour curveball which is something that you just love to see um and you know his production last year in the majors was pretty good he got lit up in triple a but you know who didn't His numbers before that were decent. It just, like Scott said, it does sound like Tyler Chattwood had the edge from what I remember reading during spring training. Anyway, now, Tyler Chattwood, as Tyler Chattwood's history has shown, Tyler Chattwood locking up a rotation spot does not mean that Tyler Chattwood will spend a long time in the rotation. He's pretty not good. And so, yeah, if Alec Mills gets an opportunity, there are enough interesting things going on that, you know, I would want to see him get a chance. But he's certainly not someone outside of an NL only league right now who I would have any interest in.

Hey, man, we call these deep dives for a reason. It's Alec Mills Day, man. We are going deep. But, yeah, look, this is a name to look at maybe an NL only. I know we had a question yesterday about AL-only league. So if anyone out there is still playing in an NL-only league, you know, your 15-team mixed, anything deeper than that, Alec Mills, maybe a name to pay attention to.

I think some of the skills here are intriguing, and he kind of, you know, was standing out a little bit here in spring training. But asking you shall receive, you want a deep dive on Alec Mills, we will give it to you. And we're also going to give you some prospects talk. But before that, I do want to remind everybody that the pick six podcast is alive and well, and it's going on right now,

and you should be checking that out. 32 top prospects have been drafted, and Will Brinson and the team are breaking them all down. The guys podcasted right after day one ended, so you can check out their immediate reactions, plus their winners and losers from round one. It doesn't stop there. Pick six will be reacting after each day of the draft

on Friday and Saturday as well. Download and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, and wherever else podcasts are found. One final note, make sure to also support Adam and the fantasy football today crew as they are diving into the fantasy relevant prospects that are being drafted currently in the NFL draft. Speaking of drafts, prospect only draft yesterday, 12 teams, head-to-head points roster, 15 roster spots, not a head-to-head points roster, excuse me, a head-to-head points league. The roster spots were just 15 roster spots.

Best player available. You don't have to take a certain number of hitters. You don't have to take a certain number of pitchers. And we often talk about how most prospects will not reach their full potential. But there's still so much attention given to them. Rightfully so, I mean, a select few will become the next wave of talent in baseball. Regardless, you know, it's still hard to evaluate them. Scott, you have a ton of dynasty content on the site.

You have your top prospects list. you have dynasty rankings. Chris, you've been writing prospect profiles. You guys are well-versed in prospects. What are some of the things that you pay attention to most when deciding which prospects you like, Scott? I pay the most attention to, and that's a difficult question to answer. So I think prospects are really, really, really, really hard to evaluate. And I'm almost skeptical. of anybody who speaks with too much confidence about any of them because of that. It's a lot of guesswork. It's a lot of forecasting, obviously, and on little information.

I mean, there are stats, but the stats are being produced by developing players oftentimes whose number one goal isn't to put up the best stuff. stats they possibly can. They're often working on things. Or it's weird environments. They're going against the sort of competition they're not going to see at the major league level, which you would think would make it easier, but not always. For example, the hitter batter, the pitcher batter interface. Like if it's down, lower in the minors where pitchers just don't throw many strikes, it's not often a batter's getting a ball in his wheelhouse. So there's, there's just, it's just very murky all the way around.

So I guess the things, the thing I look at most obviously, honestly, is, is other people's opinions. I look at scouting reports from baseball America, from MLB.com, other places to get a good sense of what the consensus is for that player. And then I kind of take that consensus and mold it, filter it through kind of my own, my own biases and sort of the things that I'm looking for from a prospect and fantasy, and that's where I wind up on a player. A lot of times somebody whose stats really do jump out in a way that goes beyond the scouting

reports, I will favor unless there's an explicit reason that's pointed out why I shouldn't, why this player is actually fatally flawed and these stats are totally fluky because sometimes sometimes the pro sometimes the scouting report's just missing on those guys. Paul Goldschmidt is a very famous example he was never a top 100 prospect. Kevin Biggio starting to look like one of those guys where he was a top 100 prospect at the end but he put up consistently good numbers in the minors and just didn't really get taken as seriously as the numbers might have necessitated. And he does look like someone who seems likely to outperform his prospect ranking at least.

Yep. And a lot of times it's kind of skewed toward fantasy anyway, because a lot of times what brings a player down in traditional prospect rankings is having a limited defensive profile not being seen as particularly athletic, which ironically was the case. with Paul Goldschman, and then it turned out he was a very athletic first baseman who actually stole some bases for a while. But that's a lot of time what brings traditional prospects down. And obviously, we don't care about that stuff as much in fantasy. We don't care about, you know, is he going to have the range at second base or whatever? If he'll hit enough to have

a spot anywhere in the lineup, he's a prospect, what he care about. And it may turn out to be second base anyway. And it's actually interesting, like, one of the things you'll see a lot in in prospect discussions for non-fantasy would be something like for an Andrew Vaughn or, you know, a better example might actually be a Pete Alonzo because Andrew Vaughan is a very highly touted prospect. And Pete Alonzo was a touted prospect, but he was never like an elite prospect. And a big part of that was, well, he's first base only. He can't play anywhere but first base. It's basically the book on Pete Alonzo.

And in fantasy, that matters in as much as it limits the paths to a player getting to the majors. But first base actually is a pretty light position right now, especially when it comes to young talent. And so it's actually not, you shouldn't at this point, downgrade first baseman as much as the kind of traditional prospect guys do. For me, I want to look at production first. And like Scott said, you do have to take it with a grain of salt, but I struggle with the prospect who everybody raves about, but especially if they've already reached like high A, let's say, and they haven't really started hitting or pitching.

Well, that does raise the red flag for me of, well, is this guy just an athlete or are they a baseball player? And those are different things. And so, you know, you look at someone who got drafted in this prospect draft yesterday a little later, but like Monta Harris, scouting reports love him. They see a guy who could hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases. play plus defense and center field. Like there are a lot of people who think he could be a future superstar or a future star at least. Oh, well, thank you, Chris. He hasn't actually produced outside of like maybe one kind of half season.

And so I don't tend to, I tend to undervalue, I don't know if undervalue is the right word. I tend to devalue. That's the word. devalue players like that. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, but in fantasy, we don't care how good you look in batting practice. We don't care how good you look in the futures game showcase.

We care what you do on the field. And a lot of guys, Leotis Tavares is another really, actually he might be the best example of that, of a guy who's really still like a top 50 prospect. That's a Rangers outfielders. He's, yeah, center fielder for the Rangers. He probably will make it to the majors this year.

He's never hit. He's just never really put up any numbers. But he's a good defender, good base runner. And so it's not that's the kind of guy. Like, he could hit eventually. You know, we see that with Francisco Lindoror is a great example of guy. Yep. Who had a good hit tool.

Scouts raved about him. Scouts raved about the potential there. he got to the majors and all of a sudden he's an elite player from basically day one. So you can't go all numbers, but I just, I struggle with those guys. And for every Francisco Lindor, there's 10 Orlando Arcias who we thought were going to become the next Francisco Lindor and it just didn't happen. You know, a lot of what we do for fantasy in general is subjective. But I feel like for prospects even more, it's just, like there's so many different. varying opinions and something that you guys brought up that I thought was,

it's still really interesting to me is how there are prospects who, based on draft status, where they were taken in the draft, even if they don't perform in the minors, will be so highly regarded for their quote-unquote tools, whereas you have players in the miners who put up huge numbers, maybe don't have the same type of draft pedigree, like in the MLB draft, or they weren't signed for, like, an absorbent amount of international money, who will just be disregarded. And, you know, someone for, like, Christian Walker, for example, last year, like, he was someone who just put up monster numbers every season in the minors. And he was just kind of disregarded as, like, a quad A player. Like, oh, he'll never be

anything in major league baseball. He'll never be, like, you know, a contributor at the major league level. It's so interesting to me that, like, prospect evaluation can go, can, can go like so many different ways just based on, you know, different things that you read. It's not necessarily based on stats, which for most of what we do, so much of it is based on stats. I think Christian Walker had the other issue,

the other big problem going for him, and that was the limited defensive profile I was talking about. He was confined to only first base, and that really narrows your path to the majors. It's why I think Kevin Cron, who had the most impressive minor league numbers of anybody. In that same system, Arizona, he's blocked by Christian Walker now, and I'm not sure, given the fact he's going to be 27 this year

and still hasn't broken in, I'm not sure if it'll ever happen for him. So that can especially happen with lumbering corner types, particularly ones at first base. And that's part of the reason why those guys one example I gave in a column recently was Joey Votto was never more than the 40th best prospect in baseball and that's still pretty high for somebody who's exclusively a first baseman

if they're great hitters they could still turn into fantasy studs but they're never going to be valued among prospects the way that that they could potentially be valued in fantasy further down the road The other thing you want to keep in mind, age matters for prospects.

A guy like Kevin Crone putting up huge numbers as a 25-year-old in AAA is a lot less impressive than a 21-year-old in AAA putting up slightly less impressive numbers. It doesn't necessarily mean that that 21-year-old will be a better player. But even in the minors, there are lots of guys with a ton of experience. And that means that they're more physically mature. That means that they've received more coaching. You know, it doesn't necessarily mean that they're better. But that level of competition does matter. And so you have to keep in mind, you know, a guy who's like Wander Franco last year, who's 18 years old, you know, even doing that in A ball.

Being 18 in A ball is really, really impressive. The average age at those levels is still like 20. 21, 22. Yes. And so... When I see it in a scouting report that such and such a player was the youngest titter at his level or the youngest pitcher at his level, anything like that, his stock goes up in my eyes. Because any time... That was one of the things that was most impressive about Mike Soroka on his way up the ladder was just how...

You know, he wasn't getting a ton of strikeouts, but he was consistently pitching well against players much older than him. and I don't know if you had a thought to finish there, Chris, but I wanted to point out too that a stat when it comes to just looking at the stats for prospects, what I pay more attention to than like stolen base total or even like home run total is plate discipline. I thought of it when you were talking about Monty Harrison. If a guy just has horrible plate discipline,

And specifically if he's striking out a ton against minor league pitchers, I really worry about how it's going to translate to the majors. I think it's already such long odds when you don't have that kind of, when you don't give so many of bats away like that, that when you are, I mean, you need to have a skill set like Joey Gallo where you just completely obliterate everything your bat touches to overcome it, I feel like. And that's the hope with Luis Robert,

who was another guy who the production really wasn't there before last season. Now, he had only been a professional for two seasons in America before, after coming over from Cuba. But his plate discipline is pretty bad. Like, the strikeout rate's not alarmingly high. It's like 25%, I think, 24%. He just doesn't walk at all. And look, if you hit 328, it doesn't really matter if you walk.

because you're going to have a 376 on base percentage anyway, and you're going to put the ball in play, and when you've got the raw power and the hit tool that he has and the speed, you know, good things can happen, but it really, it definitely lowers your margin for error. And one other thing, I know, Frank, you're getting restless and you want to move on to the actual draft, but, you know, I think this is important stuff for people to keep in mind

when you look at prospects. Context matters. Certain leagues, AAA all around last year, but especially the PCL. If a guy hits a ton of homers in the PCL, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. Because the PCL,

you've got Albuquerque, which I think is, if not at a higher elevation than course field, very close. You've got Las Vegas, which is at a high elevation. You've got Colorado Springs. PCL is just a ton of super friendly hitter parks.

That is the best hitting environment in professional baseball at pretty much any level. And so you have to keep PCL and really park factors all around. California League is very similar. A lot of offense there in that A ball level. I'm trying to think of that there's, is it the Florida State League? One of them has is very pitcher. I think it's the Florida State League is very pitcher friendly. just when possible look for those park and league adjusted stats like weighted runs

Created Plus, which is on every fan graphs page for every prospect. Keep stuff like that in mind. And when you're comparing two players who played in different leagues, you know, look at that way to run Creative Plus and, you know, make sure that you're taking that context into account because it is important. I've got to be more like Adam and just drop the iron fist. Say, no, we're moving on. No, Chris, no.

I could say like five more things. Something you guys mentioned there was age-adjusted production, and that's why Wander Franco is regarded as the top prospect in baseball. I mean, he was an 18-year-old last season in high A-ball and full A-ball and was still producing at the level that he was. I mean, an 885 OPS with really good play discipline. I mean, that's part of what we're talking about when you see a player that young performing in the minors.

And Scott had the first pick in this draft. Surprise, surprise. Scott set up the draft. He gets the first pick. Wow. And he gets Wander Franco. The rest of the first round looks like Joe Adele, Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, McKenzie Gore.

I took Jared Kalenick with the six pick. Casey Mize, Dylan Carlson, Julio Rodriguez, Jesus Lazzardo, and then Royce Lewis to Chris and Adley Ruchman finishes out the first. round there in our prospects only draft. Now I wanted to ask you guys, you know, where I took Kalenik here, do you think that's too early because, you know, just looking at what he did last year and, you know, how he's regarded

in, you know, prospect circles right now. I mean, between three levels last season, he hit 291, 904 OPS, 23 home runs, 20s deals, the hit tool is there, he's got power, he's got speed, solid plate discipline, 364 OBP. you're probably looking at more of a 2021 ETA, but I mean, I don't think ETA really matters much when you're doing a prospect-only draft. I think it's kind of just like which player do you think is going to turn out to be the best.

And I think Kellenic is probably going to be one of the better ones in baseball. Well, I would dispute your premise there that ETA doesn't matter. I think it does matter because E.T. Well, I mean, it matters how far a player has advanced because the further they get up the ladder if they're continuing to produce, that's another hurdle cleared, another stumbling block they avoided.

But the sooner they're able to come up and contribute to your fantasy team in the context of a league where you'd have minor league spots, the sooner you could then replace them, fill in that minor league spot with another prospect who could potentially pay off big for you. And obviously, the sooner you're getting

some help at the part of the game that matters, is your big league roster actually producing for you in fantasy. So I do think it's an important variable in any prospect context. I mean, in a real life context too, but certainly a fantasy context. So that's why I actually rank Dylan Carlson higher than Jared Kalenik in my prospect rankings. I would have taken him over Jared Kalenik in this draft. I think, I mean, their numbers last year were virtually identical. It's amazing how close they were between those two.

It's just that Carlson did it a level ahead of Kalenik and very well may have a job on the opening day roster. So I would take Carlson over Kalenik. Kalenik is the kind of higher regarded pick, but it's close enough that I'd take the closer guy. Chris, you've kind of soured a little bit on Carlson, right? I believe we spoke about this recently. Who would you take between the two, Dylan Carlson or Jared Kalenik?

I like Jared Kalenik a lot more. just in reading some of the scouting reports about Dylan Carlson. One of the things that really, I mean, first of all with Dylan Carlson, he was not all that good before last year. And that's always a red flag for me. I can explain why, but go ahead. No, no, no, that's fine. But one of the other things that jumped out to me is looking at Eric Longenhagen's

write up on fan graphs, he pointed out that, Dylan Carlson, Eric Longinggan has access to some of the minor league trackman data, some of the batted ball data. And apparently Dylan Carlson's exit velocity is pretty pedestrian, which makes me wonder how much of the power breakout that he had last season when he hit 21 home runs after having 21 home runs in his career before that over three seasons was real.

He had 26 actually last year. Sorry. Okay. It's worth noting that even though he made it to AAA, most of it was a double A. So it's not like it was the ball being introduced to the highest level there. But Carlson was moved very aggressively. He was one of those players who was often among the youngest at his level. Even though he wasn't performing, they just continued to push him.

And he's a switch hitter. And switch hitting is something that develops late. the side that they're they're typically natural right handers who are learning to bat from the left side which is the the side they're going to hit from most often and that was kind of Carlson's issue

he didn't become good from the left side of the plate until last year he made a huge leap there it was much better actually from the left side than the right side last year and that's what that's the main thing that allowed him to take off but I think like obviously for the Cardinals to push him so hard and move them up so quickly even when he wasn't producing.

That shows how much faith they had in him eventually coming around, and it looks like he did. Yeah, sorry. So the trackman data was, average exit velocity was about 88 miles an hour, and his hard hit rate, 95 miles per hour higher, was about 834%, which are both pretty average. Now, he is 21, so there's room for him to grow,

although most of the scanner reports I've read also seem to indicate that he's pretty built out already. He's a pretty beefy dude. So, look, I'm not an expert. I'm certainly not a Scott White who's done. I mean, you've done more research than I have on this stuff. You know, I'm doing my own research. And, you know, I have my opinions and they're educated. but you've certainly done more reading about it.

I've seen more red flags with his profile than Kalenix, who I think could be a legitimate fantasy stud. I could see his peak looking a lot like what Austin Meadows did last year. And Dylan Carlson, you can say the same for. I just have more questions about it. Okay, that's fair. Chris, you went with Royce Lewis and Christian Robinson with your first two picks at 11 and 14.

Lewis, 20 years old, former first round pick for the Minnesota Twins. He struggled quite a bit, so this is interesting. I wanted to ask you about this because you said you worry about production in the minors. Last year, Royce Lewis, I mean, he still has the, you know, has a power speed component, 12 home runs, 22 steals, but he hit just 236 between high A and double A ball. Christian Robinson, someone who's a little bit further away, he's only 19 years old. you know, maybe you're looking at 2022 with Christian Robinson. But, I mean, what's the deal with Royce Lewis? You know, I got to put you on the spot here. If you're going to criticize other

prospects for not performing, I mean, how do you defend Royce Lewis? So last year was tough for Royce Lewis. Before that, he had been 280 to 290 over his two years. Fourteen homers, 28 stolen bases in 2018. The plate discipline definitely took a step back last season and that's a concern for sure 123 strikeouts and 127 games for a guy who is not likely to hit for a ton of power

is definitely a concern so there are two competing things for me with Royce Lewis and I don't love the pick to be honest I kind of panic but with my first pick it's a great spot but

it's he's not far from the majors you know if there's an opportunity, if he gets off to a hot start and a spot opens up in the lineup, Royce Lewis could absolutely be in the majors this year. One of the other things I didn't mention in the kind of more broad general discussion, I'm always going to value speed in prospects. There's one, it's just really hard to find in fantasy these days. And also, to me, it's speed is sort of like velocity with pitchers where it's kind of a,

it's kind of a proxy for potential, like athletic ability. I think if you're a player who has an all-around skill set like Royce Lewis does and you're fast, I think it raises the floor and reduces the margin for error for fantasy because you don't need to hit quite as much. If Royce Lewis gets to the majors and he's a 275 hitter,

but he steals 25 bases, you're starting them in every fantasy. Well, Chris, tell that to Byron Buckson. right no it's not although I mean the issue for Byron Buxton is you can't stay healthy yeah if he was healthy he'd be a starting caliber fantasy option and at least every Roto and he's still pretty hyped up

and Buxent's still pretty hyped up I mean he still goes like you would think eventually after all the injuries he would start to fall down draft boards a little bit I mean even in redraft leagues like I'm seeing him going like the 10th 11th round in Roto league so You know, people are still kind of enamored with that speed, so I get that. Jason Dominguez is someone who went with the 23rd pick in this draft in the second round. He's just 17 years old and has an ETA of something like, I don't know, 2023, 2024.

It's just so hard to project that far out. For what it's worth, the Yankees spent a franchise record $5.1 million of their international spending money on Dominguez. his nickname is The Martian. He's drawn physical comps to people like Bo Jackson and Mike Trout. Again, he's just 17 years old. Scott, how do you figure out when to take a 17-year-old in,

I mean, I guess any draft, but specifically in this prospect's only draft, because it sounds like you might lean towards players who are a little bit closer to making their debut. Yeah, I do. I do, and not everybody is that way. I had a feeling Jason Jason. Is it Jason Dominguez?

That's how I thought. Yeah, I had a feeling he would go this high and specifically I thought he wouldn't make it pass Ray Butler who's the guy who took him in this draft. Ray Butler of Prospects 365 a pretty well-known guy in the prospect world and tends to emphasize ceiling greatly over proximity. So he's kind of opposite end of the spectrum for me as far as that goes.

My whole contention with that is it's really hard to know what any player ceiling is. And I intentionally like, I'm kind of like, this is kind of the Cleveland Indians philosophy on prospects too. I don't like putting a ceiling on players because they would too often break through it. And for somebody as young as 17 just signed off the international market, I mean, they are such a blank slate at that point. that there's just so many hurdles still to clear, so many potential stumbling blocks, they may never even get out at the starting gate, really. So I generally, it has to be pretty late

in a prospect draft for me to start chasing upside with those guys. However, I think Jason Dominguez is a special case for a lot of the reasons you've laid out. I mean, just the fact he has a nickname already at that young tells you how much hype this. guy he's getting he's already been recorded exit velocity of a hundred eight miles per hour from both sides of the plate yes he's a switch hitter and a switch hitter who's already that

good at switch hitting uh that's i mean it he still has a lot of hurdles to clear but that this looks like a special kind of upside that is probably worth paying up for but man it it can go so wrong with international. I mean, the biggest thing really, it's not so much whether he has the town or there's just so many ways the roads branch, the farther away you are from the destination.

Think about driving across country. You know, if you don't have a map to get there and you just, like, I'll wing it, I'll drive west. There are so many paths you could take. Whereas if you're just going around the corner to the grocery store, you really only have like two turns to go. And so that that's kind of the analogy that I would make is just Jason James could be the best player in baseball.

Like that's, he is such an uncarved block that there's really no, there's no limit to how good or how non-impactful he could be. He's 17 years old. He might not make it to double A. Like we just don't know. Yeah, no, I agree. In general, I do think I would make, if there's anyone, if there's any 17-year-old,

I'm going to make an exception for it's this one. I want to skip ahead a little bit in the draft. And Chris, you took George Valera and Alec Thomas at picks 59 and 62 at the end of the fifth round and the beginning of the sixth round. And I noticed that through your first six picks, you had all hitters and none of them were of legal drinking age. So is that something that you did by design? where you, I mean, we've heard, you know, no such thing as a pitching prospect,

were you consciously staying away from pitching prospects, were you just focusing on younger hitters who, you know, maybe they're not close to the big leagues yet, but have, you know, higher upside a couple more years down the road. Yeah, I have almost no interest in investing in pitching prospects in prospects-only draft. It has to be a pretty rare exception of someone who has performed at a high level, at a high level in the miners. You know, like a Jesus Lazzardo,

like Forrest Whitley, scouts still love him. I'm not going to invest in him in a prospect only draft because someone's going to like the potential more. And there are just that analogy about, you know, going on a road trip.

Pitchers are like that, except you're blindfolded and you're riding a unicycle. and people are throwing things at you. Like, there are just so many, there are just innumerable ways that pitching prospects can go wrong.

And the farther you are from the major league level, the more things can go wrong. Obviously, that's true of any prospect, but man, pitching is just, it's such a crap shoot. Unless you're a lock,

you know, unless you've done it at double A at least, I really don't want to touch them. So I, I'd rather shoot for upside with hitters early on and then maybe start looking at pitchers a little later. It's interesting that you single out Forrest Whitley there. And full disclosure, I took Forrest Whitley in this draft

with the first pick of round three. I don't know if you mentioned it either, Frank, but we were drafting more for a head-to-head points context than a roto context, mostly just because they didn't want to see all pitchers buried, which can sometimes happen in a roto prospects draft. But anyway, Boris Whitley, it's interesting you single him out specifically because he is so close to breaking through. If he didn't have such a bad, like if he didn't stumble so much last year, he would have already been up. And even with that stumble, he's still being drafted in a lot of redraft leagues.

So I'm, you know, he may not bounce back, but he already, he already showed, he already bounced back pretty well in the Arizona Fall League. and nobody was ever questioning the stuff itself, what happened to that. He just kind of lost control of the strike zone. So if he kind of veers back onto the road here, he could be an impactful player almost immediately. Yeah, Scott, you kind of went the other way than Chris, where you had five pitchers in your first nine picks. So you mentioned you took Whitley with the first pick of the third round. you actually doubled down there with Kopeck and Whitley, and then at the 4-5 turn you took Ian Anderson,

at the 6-7 you took Matthew Liberator, and then you took Brent Honeywell with the beginning of round 9. I mean, is that how you would normally attack it, or did you feel that because you had the best hitting prospect in the game in Wander Franco, that you can afford to take more swings at pitchers because you already had him? I had no intentional position strategy.

I was kind of like Heath in that regard. Oh, he's nips. The nip. Yeah. Nips. Yeah, no, I, it just so happened that a pitcher was so often the best player available for me. And it may have been because others were intentionally avoiding pitching, which is, you know, it's not an uncommon opinion.

that pitching prospects are riskier than hitting prospects. The ones I drafted, I think, are very close to a make or break point. And look, if I find out sooner that a prospect is going to break, that it's just not going to work out for him and I can move on, I don't see that as a bad thing. There are always more prospects on the way. There are plenty in this 15-round 12-team draft that I wanted to draft, and it couldn't because it ended too soon.

So it seems to me that the worst thing that could happen in a dynasty context, a prospect context, is you wait for years for one to pan out only to find out that he's not going to. And you think of all the prospects you missed out on because of that. That's part of the reason why I like focusing on the near-term guys. And that's part of the reason why I don't mind if they're even a little riskier. As long as they're near term and I'm going to find out very soon if they're going to pay off or not. Chris, can you reveal what your final roster looked like? Again, this was 12 teams. We had 15 roster spots.

There were no positions. It was just most people drafting best player available from a head-to-head points league perspective. Chris, reveal what your final roster kind of looked like. And give us one place. Choose one player on your team and give us an MLB player comp. Give us one realistic and one like best case scenario. Okay, so I basically drafted the Arizona Diamondbacks top 15 prospects. That's only kind of a joke.

I have four of them, I think. I have Tristan Kossis, first baseman for the Boston Red Sox, Lewin Davis, first baseman for the Miami Marlins, Abraham Toro Hernandez, third baseman for the Astros who got a cup of coffee last year. Royce Lorris Lewis shortstop for the twins. And then I drafted a whole bunch of outfielders. Corbyn Carroll, Christian Robinson, and Alec Thomas for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Hylia Ramos for the Giants, Missile Urbina for the Twins,

and George Valera for the Cleveland Indians. On the pitcher side, these were all later guys. Matthew Allen from the Mets, Corbyn Martin, currently of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who we saw last season for a bit before he had Tommy John surgery. Tristan McKenzie for the Indians, Clark Schmidt for the Yankees, and Adrian Marejone for the San Diego Padres, another guy who we saw last year. So, you know, you see there with the pitchers, you know, I definitely did look for, you know, guys who were a little closer to the majors. And I don't know. As far as comps, you know, let's look at, well, let's just look at Royce Lille.

because I think he's the most interesting of the bunch. Those Arizona Diamondbacks outfield are also very interesting, but maybe a little further away. You know, Royce Lewis, if it all goes right, there's not really too much of a limit on the upside. You could be looking at a, you know, a 20 to 25 homer, 20 to 25 stolen base guy who hits for average. you know maybe Francisco Linder with a little less pop is a is an upside play and a more likely one

is still a very good player maybe someone like Elvis Andrews so that combination obviously he needs to be better than he was in 2019 and he was much better than that in the Arizona Fall League at the end of the season definitely questions but you know he can be an impact player at shortstop and that all around skill set, I think, makes him actually a rather safe prospect as well. Scott, how did your team turn out in this draft? Give us, you know, give us the team to lay out, you know, any maybe surprises that happened here. And give us one player with an MLB player comp. One realistic, one, uh, okay, best case scenario. Yeah. So, well, like I said, no intentional position strategy. I actually ended up without

a single outfielder. Well, that's because I have them all. Yeah. And the way prospects works. I mean, some of these guys, some of these short stops I drafted are sure to wind up in the outfield. So Wander Franco with the first pick overall. Then Michael Kopeck and Forrest Whitley at the

round two, three turn. A couple other guys who are close. Brendan Rogers of the Rockies and Ian Anderson of the Braves. Then Jordan Groshen's of the Blue Jays a little further away, but really like the ceiling there. Matthew Liberator of the Cardinals.

Jonathan India of the Reds, another one who's close to breaking through and has really good plate discipline for what he's lacked in production otherwise. So far, Brent Honeywell, probably going to be up this year. Seth Beer of the Diamondbacks. And then I finally turned away from my

proximity play here and went with Maximo Acosta shortstop for the Rangers. That's a 17-year-olds. and if I was ranking all the players from this past year's international market, I'd want to make sure I'm not forgetting anybody, but I think I'd put him second behind. Jason Dominguez.

Cody, is it Hosey or Huesi? I'm not sure. Cody Hosey of the Dodgers, uh, third base prospect with good plate discipline. Kind of reminds me of Alec Baum, just starting out his career.

was their first round pick this last year. Michael Bush, another Dodgers prospect who they drafted in the first round this past year. Then Braxton Garrett, a Marlins lefty who was not too long ago to seventh overall pick. And Braden Shoemaker of the Braves, a first round pick of theirs last year. He's a shortstop who is on the fast track and also should sink or swim here fairly soon. so that's my team and you want a comp I kind of just gave one with Cody

hosy didn't I but among the higher end types Jordan Groshans of the Blue Jays shortstop who probably is going to move to third base he's pretty big

good plate discipline good opposite field power I've seen him compared to David Wright a lot which is a few going a few years back now not sure what percentage of our audience would remember David Wright the fantasy player

but he was a first round type and maybe a more modern example I don't know maybe like Josh Donaldson Jordan Groshen's could be something like him it's he's still pretty far down

so the comps will narrow as he gets close to the majors, but he's somebody who's universally among, universally shows up on top 100 prospects list and is around 50th on mine. You got some of my favorite guys to target, especially in kind of the post-hype mold. I love Brendan Rogers. He's got a good hit tool and he's going to call course field his home eventually. So I just think that combination, we've seen that work out beautifully in the past.

And then Brent Honeywell, I had him in my queue when you took him. I considered taking him with my previous pick. Very upset that you didn't. Missed all of the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery when he was on the verge of making the majors. Missed a lot of last season with a, I believe it was a fracture in his elbow, in his first, I want to say it was like his first bullpen back from Tommy John surgery. So a ton of risk there. But when he was at his best, he was arguably the top.

pitching prospect in baseball, has a deep repertoire, including a screwball, which I'm always going to root for a guy who throws a screwball. Chris, you mentioned a comp for the player I drafted in the first round, Jared Kalenik, and you mentioned Austin Meadows. And I was going to bring that up. I mean, that's kind of, it's kind of a higher end projection for him. But I think it's quite realistic. And I even had, like, the best case scenario as, like, Christian Yellich.

That's like, I mean, if everything works out for Kalenik. But I think Austin Meadows is pretty fair. Someone who, you know, when he gets here, 280, a little bit of power, a little bit of speed. So those were the comps that I had for Kalenik. And the rest of the results are going to be on CBSports.com. Correct, Rize? Yeah, they'll be up later today on Friday.

Actually, the comps that I made for Jared Kalenik in my profile of him, a healthy left-handed Tommy Pham as kind of a, you know, median outcome as sort of like the likely outcome. Trevor Story with fewer strikeouts as kind of the upside or Francisco Indoor with more strikeouts.

That'd be pretty good. Kind of the same thing. Yeah, that would work out pretty, pretty well. Questions, continue to send in your questions, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Continue to send us some five-star Apple podcast reviews and drop in some players who want us to deep dive as well. This first question comes from Chris in...

What's it? Chris in Brooklyn, Chris. Did you send a question in? No, I'm just kidding. Chris in South Carolina. I play in a 12-te-week head-to-head categories Keeper League. That was a mouthful. We keep up to four players, scoring, OBP instead of average, and add in hits, extra base hits, losses, and holds.

So the standard 5 by 5. In prior years, I've tried to be competitive in both saves and holds, and I've held my own by typically starting two true closers and two holds candidates per week. It seems, though, that this leaves me quite vulnerable to losing either or both categories each week. Do you think it would be more beneficial to punt or almost punt one of these categories? I think in this instance, I think you probably want to punt holds. Holds are much tougher to predict. they are much more spread out among several players on teams

and the leaders and holds don't get as many holds as the leaders and saves. And so in a league where people are targeting holds, that should conceivably push the price of closers down. And so it would be easier to go get, say, draft four closers and then be aggressive on the waiver wire for closers and do a really good job of kind of dominating that cash. category, rather than trying to thread that needle with both. So I actually went the other way.

I thought it would be easier to punt saves because I figured closers would still go for a higher price than elite holds guys. So, you know, it's just easier to get like Delamatansis on your team to get Zach Britain, to get Ryan Presley, to get players like that at a fairer cost than the elite closers. The only thing about that would just be elite closees. Elite hold guys Holds just don't They're not as predictable

You know those pitchers will come into games Where it's tied or where they're trailing A lot more than a closer will So there are a few You're going to have more weeks Where you don't get anything From those elite holds guys In that category

Then you will from the elite closers And you're right The price will be cheaper Scott would you punt either Holds or sales? I'm with Chris. I'm with Chris. Okay.

So I'm on an island as usual. No, it's fine, guys. I mean, it kind of depends on how. Theoretically, yes, it does seem like the closers would go higher than the elite holds guys. But by how much it would make a difference to me. If holds guys, if reliable holds guys are essentially free, then maybe I would go more that route. But it's riskier than going after just the saves, which as well, we know are already pretty risky themselves.

So it's a worthy debate to have. This next one's from Matthew and Maryland. I can't remember if we actually answered this question yesterday. We didn't. We talked about it afterwards. We talked about it off air, right? So Jose, Chris, Hanley, and Don Trell. Take it away, Chris.

It was obvious to me. Not so obvious to you. Frank, you're a fake Marlins fan. Oh, dear. Jose, Chris, Hanley, and Don Trell are Marlins' rookies of the year. Jose Fernandez, Chris Coglin, famously, Hanley Ramirez and Dantra Willis. Yeah, originally, I thought these were Marlins-related items.

So I thought it was like, Jose Fernandez, Chris Towers, Hanley Ramirez, Donra Willis. How could you forget Chris Coglin? Four rookies of the year in a 10-year span for the Marlins. A Dodgers-esque run, if you remember the Dodgers in the 90s, seemingly one every rookie at year.

Yeah. I never realized that that the Marlins had so many in such a short span of time. Well, when you tear down your roster every three years, you're going to have a lot of rookies. That is very fair. I'm in a 12 team head-to-head points league with daily lineups and weekly start limits.

11 weekly starts is the limit. With the possible shortened slash condensed season, would I be stupid to wait until the final rounds to draft my relief pitchers in a league that gives points for saves and holds? If that is if that strategy is good, who are some guys that are low end closers or high-end setup men that I should target at the end of drafts?

You know, one thing I just thought about that applies to the previous question, so I hope you're still listening. Shorten season condensed schedule probably means that more of those elite set-up men are going to get holds, or saves, excuse me. So that's just something to keep in mind. It probably does push those elite setup men. up a little bit. So just something to keep in mind.

So you're that guy that you said for the Mets, whose name I just blanked on, Dellenbatanus, your Will Harri. Your, who's the... Chris, who's Will Harri? Well, your multiple Will Harris is. Oh, okay. That's what we're going with? Yeah.

Probably, yeah, probably not a great idea to make that joke with a lesser-known player. Set up man for the Washington Nationals formerly of the Houston Astros. He's very good. And I'm completely blanking on the Yankees left-handed set-up man who. Zach Britain. You're Zach's Britain. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how many points.

Is it saves and holds together? Is it a category of saves and holds together? Oh, it's points. It's a point. Five points for saves, three for holds. Oh, okay. All right. So the saves are still more valuable.

Yes. And I'd rather have guys like, I mean, all the late round closers, Keonekella is one of my favorites. Mark Melanson of the Braves. We'll see how long he holds onto that role. Even if he gets, even if he loses it, at least in this format, there's a good chance he's their primary holds guy.

And that could apply to the ones who are entering the season in line for holes like Will Smith and the Mets, Seth Lugo, the Rocky Scott Oberg. Oh, those guys. So, yeah, there are plenty of late round targets there. It's, it's, when you can pivot between holds and saves like that, it's, there's no reason to pay up at the position. I'm already not inclined to pay up at it anyway. I love watching Chris just react to his cat because he's just like, what are you doing? Get out of here.

I have a bag of combos on my desk. I was snacking on some combos before the show. Hold on, hold on. What flavor combos are we talking here? Pizzeria pretzel. And she's going into the bag and just pulled a combo out. So yeah, there's a lot going on.

Pizzeria combos are the only answer. Chris is like having Retros 90s. eating going on. Combos are one of my most shameful secret favorite foods. I love them. They're disgusting. They're absolutely

horrifyingly gross. A little pretzel roll filled with like pimento cheese basically. But they're I love them. Like any road trip I've got a bag of combos there and I'm just snacking on them throughout the drive.

I'm with you man. Give me combos in a slim gym and that's a solid lunch for me but I don't want anybody making fun of my eating habits on Twitter ever again ever again no you put peeps in coffee

that's you're never living that thing all right I don't drink coffee got out of you coffee uh Scott yesterday I tweeted out a picture of me eating chicken nuggets I don't know if you had a chance to see it I had three different condiments on the side there I kind of felt like the guy from breaking bad who just gets to like dip it in all different kind of

condiments. It was an offensive photo. I don't remember that guy. You had ranch on your plate and not honey mustard. I mean, what is wrong with you? So, you know, I actually left the honey mustard out. I do have honey mustard, but yeah, I'm a big ranch guy. It's ranch over honey mustard all day. And then I also had some hot sauce and ketchup there. I'm walking away. This is ridiculous. Chris is out. That'll do it. I didn't think we were going to talk about Heath nips today on the show.

But of course, organically, they did come up throughout the course of today. But that'll do it. Have a great weekend, everybody. This was Fantasy Baseball today. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thanks for listening, everybody. Bye-bye.