Fantasy Baseball Today - Questions About SP; Batting Average and ERA Sleepers (06/08 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 8, 2020

Today on the show we're answering some questions about starting pitchers and also taking a look at some batting average and ERA sleepers. But first, where's Adam been!? We have another new proposal from the owners, this time regarding a 76-game season (5:46). What's the deal with qualifying offers? ... Our email of the day asks whether or not punting starting pitcher is a viable strategy in a shortened season (11:05). How much are we all changing our draft approach? ... Continuing with our theme of starting pitchers, is Corey Kluber done as a Top-20 starting pitcher (19:18)? Would we rather own Kluber or Zac Gallen? ... Is David Price one of the most underrated starting pitchers in Fantasy (28:00)? ... Is his move to the Los Angeles Dodgers actually good for his Fantasy output? ... Is Dinelson Lamet a legitimate breakout candidate (36:55)? ... He really only has two pitches, maybe even one. ... When looking for late-round category contributors, can you find batting average (41:45)? ... Who are the top batting average sleepers being drafted outside the Top-200? ... How about late-round ERA contributors (49:35)? ... Does using elite middle relievers actually help? Who are some underrated SP in regards to ERA? ... Email us at [e-mail]. 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @CBSFantasyBB, @AdamAizer, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Download our printable Draft Kit from CBSSports.com/draftkit! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.

Last season, Corey Klober had a 5.80 ERA and his lowest strikeout rate since 2013. is he done? We'll answer that and many more questions here on fantasy baseball today on a Monday June 8th, 2020 Frank Stamphill joined by

Scott White, Chris Towers and the returning Adam Azer Adam, I hope that you have had an eventful week an eventful weekend because last Monday

when I asked Scott and Chris how their weekend were it was met with a resounding not much. Well, that doesn't surprised me, I guess. We're not doing much these days. Yes, I have had a busy, busy week.

Last Friday, I guess two Fridays ago at this point, we welcomed our daughter into the world. Woo! I'm May 29th, and now I have a son who's going to be two next month and a newborn daughter. Yesterday was the craziest day that I've had, probably. I told you guys off the air, my son picked up a knife out of the dishwalk.

and then like an hour later messed with some of the burners on the stove as I was cooking dinner. Oh my gosh. He is getting into everything right now. He is like unstoppable. And yeah, everything's great though. And what is awesome is that for some reason over the last few days, my son decided he loves baseball.

This is not a joke. He loves baseball. He keeps going, Mo, baseball. And I have to keep putting on, YouTube highlights of games that they've been watching MLB Network because they're just showing old games. I watch Barry Ball destroy a home run in the World Series, a game that they lost.

That is one of like the Albert Poohole's home run gets all the love. That Barry Bond's home run, like I think they cut to one of the pitchers on that Angels team. And he's just like, I think you can see him say like, I've never seen a ball hit that hard. Well, it was like it was like the Aaron Boone home run was like coming back from the inning. At least this way, you know,

they edit the games on MLB network to speed it up, but it was like, you come back from break, first pitch, very bots, like, what were you thinking,

pitching, like throwing a ball there, and he destroyed it. I also like he's gigantic and juiced up. But, yeah,

he loves baseball. And then today I found out that every sport to him is baseball. So if he's watching basketball, he's like, oh, baseball.

So maybe he doesn't love baseball, but he loves sports, and he calls it all baseball. That's great. That was probably more eventful than I ever would have expected. It's a zoo over here. Quite different than last Monday. But I hope everything else is going well.

Stay safe. I'm glad to be back. I missed everybody. Stay safe in that Azer household, man. There's a lot going on there. Scott, how are you doing? How's everything? It's good, Frank.

It's good. Yeah, my kids have not been getting into the same sort of hijinks. Sounds like Adams have been. They're just fighting. They've been fighting over, you know, the barrel of monkeys, that game that's just a barrel with a plastic barrel with little plastic monkeys in it, that you link their arms together. You know that? They've been fighting over that constantly for the past two days. Why is it of such interest to them?

I don't know. I never found it fascinating when I was a kid. There are multiple monkeys in it so they can divide them up evenly, but that's not quite good enough. No, that's, that's how things are going over here. I just want to say one thing. The knife and the stove thing, very rare. This doesn't happen often in my house. We are not neglectful parents.

It's just a wake-up call that we have to do a better. I have to do a better job watching myself. I cannot do the things I normally do now that we have a daughter. I do have a question, I guess. What kind of knife? Is it just a butter knife? No. Like not a super sharp knife, but what are you doing?

What are you putting your serrated knives in the dishwasher for, man? Watch those things by hand. These are old and already have been washed so many times in the dishwasher. The really nice ones, the really sharp ones, we hand wash. Which is counterintuitive because like you could cut yourself. I really resent the, oh, these certain items, you can't wash them in the dishwasher. This is why I have a dishwasher. I don't want to wash anything by hand.

It is such a pain, and you shouldn't make me do it. So I'm with you, Adam. Thank you. Appreciate that. Today on the show, we will not continue talking about knives and children and gallivanting, but we will answer questions about starting pitchers. You heard Corey Kluber there in the open, so we'll talk a little bit more about him. David Price was brought up last week. I want to talk a little bit more about that.

And Denelson Lemette, some questions about those three starting pitchers. And throughout the course of the week, we will also look at some category sleepers. We'll do one hitting category, one pitching category each day. And today we'll talk about batting average and ERA. But of course, a new day means a new proposal with the same result. I don't want to talk too much about this, but it's worth mentioning, reported by Carl Ravish of ESPN. A 76-game regular season has been proposed by the MLB owners

with a 75% pro-rated salary. And as Mike Exisa of CBSports.com points out on Twitter, it is basically the same money that the MLB owners have been offering all throughout. So originally, an 82-game season at a sliding scale, that was an average of 33% salary, 50 games at a fully pro-rated pay. That is an average of 33% salary.

And this latest proposal, 76 games, with 75% of pro-rated pay, is an average of 33% salary. But there's a big concession in this one that wasn't in the other ones, and that is teams don't have to forfeit a draft pick if they sign, what is it? What type of free agents?

One who gets extended the qualifying offer. Okay, the qualifying offer. Right, right, right. So that's a huge, huge deal, I think anyway. Yeah, well, I mean, that rule has been blamed for costing a lot of players, a lot of money and free agency. So it's... I don't know.

Like, I guess it's a concession. But it's just the owner saying, like, they're not going to just, like, stop doing that. It's not like they're just going to, like, if Craig Kimbril didn't have that attached, he wouldn't have gotten a $100 million contract. like he was looking for. I just, it feels like a concession that's not really actually a concession.

I just, so you don't, you don't think it was, you don't think that, uh, I don't think the players, that loss of the draft pick was preventing teams from signing players.

I think it was a convenient excuse for teens not wanting to pay for veteran free. Man, you are so cynical. But what about, but what about the teams, what about the players that legitimately had to wait until June,

you know, to, I, think it played a part. I'm just saying if I'm, if I'm looking at this from the players perspective, and I'm looking at what, 12 to 15 players get the restricted for the qualifying offer tag every year

and maybe two of them, like even in that one bad off season coming off the 2018 season, it was only like three players who ended up having to wait. Like, Yosmani Grunda had to take a one year offer. But it's just, that's not a real concept. That's not a real concession that the entire players union should be concerned about. I just, this seems like we have an easy solution here.

Just 76 games, pro rate the full salaries, but you can defer X percentage of the money. And also, if the postseason doesn't play, you get to waive the money. Like, that just seems like such an obvious answer that fulfills both sides stated goals and needs. And it's just like, let's just get there. You know, like, yeah, it sounds like Carl Ravich had a series of tweets related to this report. And the way he made it sound was that if this offer doesn't at least inspire a counteroffer from the players because it's basically been one side makes an offer and the other just says no and waits for the other side to make a new offer. That's how it's been going.

So if this doesn't start an actual dialogue, then it sounds like they're just going to move forward with the 50 game season or 48 or somewhere around 50 games and and that'll be madness but at least it'll be a season madness madness madness scott this is fantasy baseball today then there's this from horway castillo that was my three that was my 300 impersonation yeah oh okay i was like adam had no clue uh there was also this tweet from horay castillo besides the money uh MLB's proposal includes a revision to the operations manual that says players would have to sign an acknowledgement of risk before playing.

Players believe it is designed to undermine their right to challenge MLB if it fails to provide a safe working environment. So boom, just another hurdle. There was another report this weekend. I can't remember. I think it might have been the New York Daily News where they reached out to each MLB city the public health officials to see if the teams or the league had contacted them

about some of the details in their proposed plan that they said that they would work with local officials on. And I think it was something like all but four said that they had not heard or did not say that they had heard. So I think that's a real concern for players as well. Hey, man. Let's just make it happen. Like you said, Chris, I think the way you laid it out makes a lot of sense. 75 games start mid-July, whatever it might be at this point. Every day that we go along here without an actual agreement is just further, you know, further into July or August that the season is going out to start. So we'll see what happens.

Let's get it done. And let's move into our email of the day from this person did not want their name revealed on the air. So we'll call him Voldemort. No, I am not a big... You're not supposed to say it. That's the whole thing. But the thing is they keep saying. I didn't read the books, but in the movie, they kept saying you're not supposed to say it,

and then everybody just said it. Only Harry and Dumbledore consistently said it because, you know, you can't be afraid of a name. Maybe I have that status, Chris. You're not that hairy. You know, it's a jinxed. It's a jinxed name, Frank. Dear Stephen, Patrick and Kawhi, did you figure out what this was, Chris? I know you were looking into it.

No, like it seems like it's like Steven Strasbourg, Kauai Leonard, both San Diego State University alums, and then I have no idea who Patrick is. Like that, so you stumped me. With so much uncertainty lingering over the year as a whole and therefore the composition of the season, do you think punting starting pitching could be a viable strategy in 2020? There are valid question marks and at least many unknowns. over the readiness of players. Second, a number of players

on improbable contenders are unlikely to go, quote, all out, and some may be prematurely shut down if and when they drop out of the race, which, if it's a 50-game season, could be like, I don't know, 30 games into it. With vastly fewer games,

each, therefore taking on a greater than usual significance, managers will likely be quicker with the hook, thus offering a smaller window for wins and quality starts. by punting starting pitchers and focusing your draft on relievers, you can avoid the potential starting pitcher circus. Secure your saves and ratios,

all while grabbing yourself better hitters as your other league members stock up on arms. Adam, we spoke about this a little bit on Friday in regards to our 50-game mock draft that we did, so you didn't have an opportunity to talk about this. Is this something you can see yourself doing if we do play out a 50-game season, let's say? This is obviously not a points league question.

I don't see why it's any different, but you know me and my TAPAP AMC, where I do think that you can sort of punt starting pitching. And I think some people do punt starting pitching and just get those ratios, particularly in a head-to-head categories league, a weekly head-to-head categories. I don't think any strategy changes in this regard, you know, with this specific question. I don't think the 50 games changes. But, yeah, I mean, just in general strategy of relievers instead of starters and focusing on ratio categories. It's a viable strategy, but I don't think that I really agree with the premise of this email.

If you're going to say that managers are going to be likely to give a hook because the season shorter, maybe I'll say that managers don't have to manage workload as much because the season's shorter, and they'll let their pitchers go deeper into games if those are their best pitchers, you know. So I don't agree with the premise of the email, but I do think in general, yeah, you can punt starting pitching and try to win the ratio categories and saves. I agree with you that it's just impossible to say how managers are going to approach it, but I do think everything is on the table. And I do think, you know, while they may lean on their best pitchers heavier, that might include their closer.

It might include their ace. And they don't end up using their ace like a typical starter. They'll use them like a typical starter. And then three days later, bring them in for a three-inning save or something. Like the sort of crazy stuff we see in the post. season if the season is that short. But there's just no predicting which teams are going to do that kind of stuff

and who they're going to do it with. It does make every starting pitcher riskier. I think the strategy, I mean, you have to, you obviously have to understand your league rules. And a lot of leagues have start minimums. They have innings, minimums that have to be met in a week.

And it's possible closers could pitch a higher percentage of their team's innings than ever. may end up fine with the innings minimum, but it's still something you have to account for. And like the bottom line, I'll just say is you still need good pitching in an environment where I don't think there's really just kind of middle of the road pitching. You still need good pitching. It's going to be harder to pinpoint and it's going to be even riskier to pursue.

But you still need it. If your leagues allow for you to do something like this, I do think it might be the most, the most successful way to go about it. There's going to be more injuries this year than normal. I feel pretty confident in that. The start-stop nature of the spring training, the shortened spring training that we're likely to have, it all points to a situation where you're just going to have more muscle and tendon injuries.

And that's going to go for hitters and pitchers, but I think it's more likely to be an issue for pitchers just because pitchers are more injury prone in general. What that says to me, along with the fact that I think most starters, at least the ones who haven't proven that they're big workload guys like Justin Verlander and Max Scher, I think we're going to see a lot of guys making four and five innings starts, at least for the first few weeks, maybe the first month of the season.

and in the event of a 50 game season all of a sudden you're probably looking at a situation where that's half the season you know why do you think that well that's what happened yeah that that happened in 95 in many situations and I just think

like we're going to have five the four or five in the four or five innings yeah and we're going to have deeper rosters deeper bullpens so teams are going to have more they're not going to have to worry about overworking their bullpen early on in the season And so I think we're going to see a lot more, you know, like Scott said, that kind of postseason strategy, except with the exception of a handful of aces, the first time a guy runs through trouble and runs into trouble the second time through the order,

a lot of guys in the postseason get pulled. And I think we might see more of that in 2020 if there's, I mean, in any instance, but in the 50 game season, the impact of that would be greater. I know the Dodgers were notorious for that throughout the post season. They would only let their starters, some of the fringe starters, their third and fourth guys go one time through the order, and they would be really cautious once runners would get on base. So look, every game matters that much more in a 50-game season.

So I tend to agree that things are going to look a lot different than we're used to. Yeah, there you go. Regarding how some teams might handle. Ultimately, we don't know, but we can, we can try our best to take a crack at it and guess that. Let's take a quick break right there. When we come back, we'll talk about starting pitchers that we have questions about. Guys that we wanted to talk more about last week, we didn't have the time to do so.

We'll do that next here on Fantasy Baseball today. All right, we're back here on Fantasy Baseball today. We'll take a look at some of those starting pitchers we have questions about. And let's start things off with Corey Kluber. I'm just going to go around the horn, a yes or no question. Is Corey Kluber done? as a top 20 starting pitcher, Adam, yes or no?

Yes, not top 20 anymore. Chris? I think he definitely could be. Yeah, that's not the extra. Yes or no. He could be done or he could be top 20. Top 20. Look, I'm not drafting them as a top 20 pitcher,

but you don't have to to have them on your team. So no. So your answer to the yes or no question is no. Yes. I don't like yes or no questions. Yeah, I don't like us either, Frank. You suck, man. I'm just confusing my.

myself at this point because Adam did the exercise correctly. Chris, you know, did what Chris does and kind of went all over the place with it. Scott, Cory Klobber, is he done as a top 20 starting pitcher? I'm leaning yes. You're leaning yes. All right, let's get into it here. The fantasy points per game, the last two seasons before last year, so I don't even have the fantasy points per game for last year because he was so bad he had a 5.80 ERA and a 22.6% strikeout rate, which was his lowest since 2013. But the two seasons before that, 2018, 19.7 fantasy points per game in 2018, that was, that ranked his SP4. And in 2017, 23.5 fantasy points per game, he won the Cy Young in 2017. He was the SP1 in fantasy points per game. So it's not that long ago that he was very successful,

both as a real-life pitcher, as a fantasy pitcher. And, you know, the hard contact is up the past two seasons. 36.7% from 2018 through 2019, as ADP is 93.6. Now, I've had a tough time figuring him out because typically he's a slow starter. That could have just been the case last year. Chris, tell us why you are a little bit more optimistic,

I think, than us on Corey Klober. I think what it comes down to is that I'm just, I'm... I take a lot less from what happened last season than I think most people are. I just, I don't think six starts tells us a ton. You know, there's like, well, his velocity was down. Well, you know, his sinker was 91.4 miles per hour in April. It was 91.6 in April of 2018.

It was 92.1 in April of 2017. That's really basically nothing, especially for a guy at his age. And, you know, well, his strike-car rate was down. Well, again, one month. His walk rate was up. That's ultimately what it comes down to is I just kind of think, to a certain extent, at least, I think you're better off throwing last year away. Take a little bit of something out of it.

You know, don't just draft him like you were coming into 2019, which was, you know, as a second round pick. but I just don't think last year was enough for us to say, wow, Corey Kluber is probably done. I just, I don't think we have enough evidence for that. We saw something similar happened to him in 2017, where he really struggled in the first month of the season. ERA wasn't quite as bad.

Walk rate wasn't quite as bad, but they were pretty close. And went on the I.L at the beginning of May. came back from a back injury and was the best pitcher in baseball from that point on through a ton of innings, got a ton of strikeouts, and won the AL-Sai Young. So I just think if you're looking at Cory Kluber and saying, well, he had one bad month and then he didn't bounce back from it,

I just, I kind of think that it's sort of poor logic. I think we have to weight these things appropriately. And I just feel like his current ranking, the way people look at him and talk about him in, fantasy baseball for 2020 doesn't appropriately weigh the amount of data that we have.

Scott, when it comes to Kluber, his ADP is 93.6. He's the 24th starting pitcher off the board. At what point in the draft do you have to be where he's available and you are willing to draft him? Probably my fourth starter, if I'm looking

to fill my fourth starter spot, that's where the upside is worth the down side to me. And I don't. I'm not putting it all in last month. I do see a lot of people who are. I'm kind of with Chris and that I don't put that much stock in last month. What worries me most is that when we last saw him pitch, he was 32, and now he's 34. And a lot of aging can happen between 32 and 34 that we just have no insight into. Apparently, I don't know, I remember seeing some report. I didn't see it for myself, him pitching, but apparently he wasn't looking that good this spring.

And I had some concerns about him heading into last season because of a drop in velocity and a drop in swinging strike rate from 2017 when he won the Sion. Now, he still put up great numbers in 2018. But I thought maybe he overachieve some. I thought it may be indicators of a decline. last April you know it doesn't it doesn't help reassure those fears and now he's you know like I said it's basically

been two years since we've seen him pitch a reasonable sample of innings so I just don't know who he is anymore and now he's changing teams too it's just like a lot of a lot of reasons to be worried and it could turn out fine he could be a top three

Cy Young finisher again but with I talk about the top 35 starting pitchers all the time, and he's among them. The main thing I use to sort them out is risk factors, and I feel like his pile is larger than most pitchers, most of that group.

One thing I will say, though, is what appears to be a decline from 2017 to 2018 might have just, in fact, been a regression to the meet. he was just so much better in 2017 than he'd ever been at generating swing strikes, generating strikeouts, avoiding walks. And for the most part, he just went back to being who he'd been in 2014, 2015, 2016, when he wasn't the best pitcher in baseball necessarily, but he was a consistent top five to top seven fantasy starter and fantasy pick. And so that's, it's one of those things that's So it's always hard to tell when a player is coming off a career year,

did they lose something or was it just they had a career year? I think in Corey Klobber's case, maybe a bit of both. But I'm like I didn't really seem much to be alarmed about in his 2018. Like he still had a 323-C-R-3-08 X-FIP, 312 FIP, 289 ERA. he was still, by any possible measure, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. Adam, I've got a two-parter for you. Would you rather have Corey Kluber or Zach Gallen? And speaking of his ex-fip in Sierra, what would you project for his AERA this season, his Adam ERA? I would rather have Zach Gowan.

But most of the pitchers going behind Kluber, I would not take over Kluber. I think Kluber's ADP is pretty good. I would take Carasco, Gallen, and Paxton over Kluber. And that might be it. And I would say 380 or higher. Yeah, I mean, a 380 ERA in a short and season. Well, I know. You know, look, I would be more confident to him in a short and season than a longer season.

I think he's old and breaking down. He pitched with injuries in 2017 and 2018, and then he had a broken. and bone in 2019. It wasn't like a chronic knee injury. But that's why I didn't like him going into 2019. I thought he was starting to break down. Can he put together two good months? You know, very possible. But

he's just not someone that really interests me. Speaking of being old and breaking down, Chris, you referenced David Price last week and you said that he was the most undervalued starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. And that might be true. 10.7K per 9 last year, 28

percent strikeout rate, both the highest of his career. He does leave the AL East, which is great news because in his career versus the Yankees, he has an ERA over five. I don't know what it was. I think it was just a mental thing at times. Obviously, they had good lineups, but he just got crushed every time he faced the Yankees, moves over to the National League with the Dodgers on the West Coast. His ADP right now, 149.2. He is SP 41. Chris, tell us why he is. is one of the most undervalued starting pitchers in fantasy baseball? I think the biggest thing is that you look at the final ERA and it's 428. And it looks like it's in keeping with the general decline that we've seen from David Price,

where he hasn't really been an elite pitcher in a long time. He's 33 years old. Maybe that was another sign of the beginning of the end, except for him. He basically was pitching with a wrist issue for his last four starts. as Alex Kores said when he went on the IL last season, it was ultimately just a cyst in his wrist, which rhymes. That's fun.

Probably not fun to actually pitch through, though. But the takeaway there is it's not a, it's not a, you know, it wasn't a ligamental issue. It wasn't a sore elbow. It was, you know, he had a mass that grew, they removed it, and he should be fine. Assuming he's fine, you know, he had a 316 ERA through his first 17 starts right before,

those last four starts of the season before going on the IL. If 316 ERA, 102 strikeouts, and 88.1 innings pitched, and he had gone at least six innings, I believe, in 10 of those 17 starts. The starts per inning number is really low, but that's mostly because he had one start where he went two-thirds of an inning, I believe got ejected. And then another one where he went one-and-third of an inning, gave up six earned runs and was cool.

So he didn't really have trouble consistently going six innings. He was very, very effective. But I think he only had eight quality starts in his first 17 starts. I mean, that's, you know, that comes out to like, what, 14 over a 32 start season?

That's not a huge number, but it's not terrible. That might make him better in a roto league at this point versus head to head points. Sure, sure. I think that's fair. And I think, you know, the way the Dodgers used their starting pitching,

it wouldn't surprise me if he had more short starts this season. But he's the kind of guy who has proven he can handle the workload, has proven he can throw the 95 to 110 pitches that we want to see from a starting pitcher. So he probably won't need a long ramp up like some other guys. So I just think David Price was really good last year, and it's kind of gone unnoticed. I don't think, like, he was a salary dump in that trade, but I think the Dodgers are going to be very happy that they have him.

Scott, you wanted to retort this last week. We didn't have enough time. I pushed it off and I said, we'll get to it. Well, now's the time to get to it, Scott. You did not think that David Price is one of the most or the most undervalued starting pitcher. Why is that? I didn't really trust what he was doing even before things went,

went, even things, before things collapsed for him last July, when he had the 316 ERA through those first, however many starts, it was a career high strikeout rate, even though his swinging strike rate was as mediocre as ever. I mean, he's always been terrible at getting whiffs. He's managed to be a good pitcher in spite of it. So why hold that against him? Not.

Well, because he hasn't been, he hasn't been a great strikeout pitcher before last year. That was the first time we had ever seen that happen, and it was over basically half a season and without the underlying changes to support it. So he also tends to give up a lot of hits. I just think, I don't know, I just, I think he had a good half season in a way that I have trouble explaining. And so therefore I'm not putting much stock in it.

Well, you better get used to that, Scott. He had a 365 X-FIP, a 3-16 ERA, and a 3-FIP. Yeah. He was really good. Yeah, and he was. You can look at 2018, too, and if you take away his starts against the Yankees, he had a 292 ERA. So where I come out on it, Frank, is, I don't know if you remember, like, we talked about kind of lessons we learned.

And my lesson that I learned from U. Darvish that I said I was throwing away and was going to be willing to make the same mistake on you, Darvish was like, I can sit here and go through game logs and injuries and this day, take away the Yankees starts for David Price. I can make a really compelling case for David Price. But when you start doing that with older guys, especially ones that are injury prone, that's where you can run into trouble.

And I think that there's a lot to like about David Price, but I also feel like there's huge downside with David Price, because he's also 34 years old. and he's had trouble staying healthy, and he doesn't pitch that deep into games. And again, if it were a longer season, I'd be more afraid of him. If it's a 50-game season, I might not care.

But I could see a really easy case to make. 292 ERA if you remove the Yankee starts in 2018. 316 ERA and a great strike-out-to-walk ratio before playing with a wrist cyst in 2019. team. Like, that's great. But you do have to be careful when you start making excuses for players two years in a row, you know, just, just beware. I think that's fair. But looking at other pitchers in that range. Yeah, it's baked into his cost, you know. Yeah, I don't necessarily know there's that much more risk in David Price than James Paxton, who is a flyball pitcher with a ton

of injury. Like, I love Julio Arias, but you definitely can't say there's more risk with David Price and Julio Arias. Like Kyle Hendricks has, I think, basically no risk, but I think he's also generally just kind of overlooked because he's boring. I just think, like, in that price range, that's why I like him so.

Price range. Yeah, exactly. In the previous three years, over the previous three years, Price had a 374 ERA. So, like, 374 ERA and barely a strikeout per inning. Like, that's,

that's what I'm. banking on more than the guy we saw for half a season last year. That's not bad for your SP4 though, Scott. Yeah, that's, you know, you look at the guys in that range and it's Robbie Ray and like Robbie Ray. It's comparable. I don't see how that makes them undervalued though. Well, because I think that's not the only outcome.

I think there's legitimate top 20 upside there. I also think like when he got traded to the Dodgers, I think most people took it as a positive for his fantasy value. But like the way the Dodgers made. manage their pitching staff, they don't need him nearly as much as the Red Sox did. I think they're going to treat him like, kind of like Rich Hill, kind of like they treated Rich Hill, except maybe even pulling him from starts earlier. And they have so many Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin types, who are going to be on the roster now with expanded rosters. And I just don't know how many times Price is going to see the third, the third time through the order. I don't know how long if he's going to last. I don't know.

I just feel like I don't trust the Dodgers, given his injury history and his age. And, you know, these patches of ineffectiveness that he's shown the past few years, I just don't trust him to really treat him like a typical starting pitcher anyway. And I know you could make the case for every starting pitcher going into a short season,

but I think it's a stronger case for David Price. I mean, Rich Helds, you know, 2018, six innings or more in 13 of 23 starts. It's not a huge workload. There definitely were some early hooks, but I don't know. At SP 41, it just seems like that's more than baked into the price. There are other guys behind him or I like even more like Matthew Boyd,

but I just think he's a very good value right now. I do also want to get into to Nelson Lamett because I know, Scott, you brought him up last week, and a lot of people have pegged him as a potential breakout starting pitcher. Last year was coming back from Tommy John's surgery, a 4.07 ERA 3.44 X-FIP does struggle with walks. The strikeout rate, 33.6%. That would have ranked fourth among starting pitchers if he qualified. His 14% swinging strike rate, that would have been tied with Shane Bieber for ninth among starting pitchers. So there's no doubting he can get swings in.

misses, he can get strikeouts. But Scott, I kind of worry about the pitch mix. I mean, he is really relying on four-team fastball sinker, has this like slider slurv pitch that he uses about 44% of the time. You know, what do you make of Denelsso Lament? How are you valuing him this year? Do you view him as a breakout candidate yourself? Yeah, I view him as a breakout candidate. I think I never end up drafting him because I think some people are too sanguine about that pitch mix

you talk about basically just a two pitch pitcher and he throws the one breaking ball about half the time like you said that's the key to his success and is that something that he can sustain a third time through the order looking at the way the Padres have handled Joey Lucasey

who you know the raw stuff isn't as good but the pitch mix is similar he basically relies on one special breaking ball a ton and they never let him pitch a third time through the order and you know obviously he was coming back for Tommy John's surgery last year LeMette was but it's not like they were letting him pitch deep into games then so yeah that that would be my main concern for him

I don't think it's just a total guarantee he's somebody you're going to be able to bank on in your rotation in fantasy so you know I don't I don't want to make him one of my top five starters and somebody else always does. So I never end up with him. He's going 33rd at starting pitcher, which just like I kind of came into the draft prep season

liking Denelson Lamatt and then I saw how much everyone likes him. And it really scared me off. Like you can look at his baseball savant page and it says he has four pitches or five pitches technically, but like the changeup he never really throws. The curveball, it shows a curveball on slider. They're the same pitch. He does not have multiple breaking.

balls. He's kind of a one pitch pitcher at this point because his four seamer and sinker both get hit really hard. Last year he had a 426 expected woba on the sinker, 344X Wobah on the four seamer, but in 2017 the first time we saw him, it was 410 on the four seamer and 374 on the sinker. So I think either way you look at it, Denelson-Lemette has a fastball that gets hit really hard and a breaking ball that is really, really good. Can you get away with that pitch mix? We've seen like Lance McCullors have stretches where he did, but never was consistently dominant, never was as good as we hoped he would be. And I think that's the same thing with Nelson the Met. You're going to get a ton of strikeouts. I think you're probably going to get plenty of walks and, you know, probably a four ERA.

I just, it's not a profile that I want to get super excited for right now, especially given the injury history, given workload concerns. It's kind of like the all-power hitter at this point. Like, Denelson Lemette's probably just a strikeout specialist at pitcher, and you're hoping he holds steady at ERA, and it just seems like that's really easy to find. Why would I pay for Denelson Lemette when Robbie Ray goes so much later than him. Yeah, I think that's fair. And I knew coming into this draft season that he was going to be so

hyped up because the way he ended the season last year, three of his final five starts, double digit double digit strikeouts. So there's no doubting the strikeout ability there, but struggles with home runs, even in a ballpark like Petco, which is just so weird. I mean, his splits last year, he had an ERA over five at home and a 2.92 ERA on the road. So it's just, there's a lot of volatility in the I think, and I've already kind of been on record saying in a shorter season, I think you kind of need to avoid some of these pitchers where you don't really know what you're going to get from start to start. So I kind of lump him in that group with, you know, the Robbie Reyes and the Eduardo

Rodriguez is where I don't know that you can recover from the ratios he might provide in a shorter season. So I'm probably going to look to fade to Nelson Lamet heading into 2020. I wanted to talk a little bit about, you know, just some category sleepers. at batting average in ERA, one hitting category, one pitching category throughout the course of this week because, you know, when I'm drafting in a roto draft or in a head-to-head categories league, I will try and draft as many all-around players early on as I possibly can

and then kind of figure out later on in the draft, all right, what do I need? Look at your team and figure out, all right, I'm lighten batting average, I'm lighten home runs, I'm lighten steals, I'm lighten strikeouts and try and, you know, almost look for category specialists. So that's what I would consider, you know, some of these players. So let's start off with batting average. The league batting average last year in 2019 was 252. That was the lowest since 2014 when it was 251.

And looking at some interesting players, just in general, based on the ATC projections, which you can find over on Sportsline.com as well. Those come from Ariel Cohen. I know you guys have had Ariel here on the show. I looked at some projected batting average, is that are over 280 with an ADP outside of the top 200. And some names that I found, Luis Arias, Howie Kendrick, Alex Verdugo, Daniel Murphy, Jesse Winker, Adam Eaton, Hanser Alberto. Scott, any names here stand out to you where if you need batting average late in a draft, you actually will target, said player?

I mean, Arayez is going to hit for average. He's so geared for it with how much contact he makes, the kind of contact he makes. He's going to hit for average. I'm just not sure he's going to do anything else. Maybe score a lot of runs depending where he is in the order. He does get on base a decent amount, mostly because of the batting average. So, like, he strikes me as a batting average specialist. Have I ever been so desperate for batting average late in the draft that I've been willing to turn to him?

No. To this point, I haven't. so I can't really say that I in particular am drawn to him. Maybe Alex Verdugo, I think the overall upside is better, and since the back issues, those seem to be a thing of the past now, hopefully. Then playing time shouldn't be an issue for him, taking Buki BetSpot spot in the Red Sox lineup. And he might actually provide a decent amount of power, not a ton,

but some, unlike Arias, there should be none. So he's of these players here, he's the one I'm most excited about. And yeah, I think he's going to be a safe source of batting average. Not going to be as high as Arias probably, but it'll still be, you know, that 290, 300 range. Adam, when you're drafting in a roto or head-to-head categories league, do you find yourself reaching for category specialists? Like, you just look up and down your roster and realize, all right, I'm light on batting average. it seems like it's harder to find specifically with this category. That's why I wanted to highlight some of these players.

But do you find yourself maybe reaching for some of these batting average contributors late in the draft? Ryan Reynolds is probably the last guy. He goes about 180th, right? But, you know, like Kevin Newman and Louisa Rise, no, I'm probably not going to be taking those guys. what I have found that happens a lot is like if I need to justify taking someone like Eben and Carnacione laid in a draft,

I can only do that if I took good batting average players earlier. So it usually works the other way. If I get really good batting average guys earlier, then it frees me up to take the 250 hitter who's going to hit a bunch of homers. I don't like playing catch up and batting average. It's my least favorite category

hitting and pitching combined. I think, maybe strikeouts. But yeah, it's my least favorite category to play catch-up in because the, the kind, like, hitting for power helps batting average. And so, you know, if there's a high batting average guy left at that point, generally speaking, he's not hitting for much power. And he's certainly not base stealing, stealing bases in today's environment,

because those guys have, if they hit for average, too, they're very valuable. So it just seems like you're paying specifically for batting average and that's it if you're trying to fill that category late. And so many so many of the big high-end players early in drafts do provide batting average. I tend to avoid the guys who I know are going to be a liability there like a Pete Alonzo or who's somebody who goes even earlier. I think Fernando Tatis could be. We've talked about that a lot. there's a lot of, there are a lot of early rounders

who I expect to be a liability in batting ever. I mean, that's part of the reason I don't get excited about Giancarlo Stanton unless he really falls because I know more likely than not he's topping out at 270 or so. Chris, you've been nodding your head a lot throughout the conversation here.

I would agree that it's harder to find batting average contributors late because most of them are not going to contribute anything outside of batting average. Like you've referenced Luis Arras before, but I don't know how much he's going to do in any of the other categories. That's why it's so hard to find, you know, these guys late. Kind of like how Scott said, you know, you can't really chase this category later on with some of these players. But, I mean, Adam Eaton is someone you've

talked about before. Daniel Murphy, we haven't mentioned the name. I mean, is he just left for dead? He could be a batting average contributor, especially, you know, playing half his games in a shorter season in course field. And with the DH. You know, he is someone who, um, I was very excited going to course field. I thought his swing was just perfectly tailored to course field. And then he just, again, wasn't healthy. He was good when he was healthy in 2018. And so, yeah, I think there's some potential for a bounce back there.

The thing I would point out, the one other name that I think is really going overlooked. And it's surprising because there was some hype around him early on is Howie Kendra, who led baseball and expected batting average last season. only had 370 plate appearances, not going to play every day. But with the addition of the DH in the National League, he very well may play every day or something close to it. And he's not just a batting average specialist.

He had a 622 expected slugging percentage. He slugged 572 last year and was one of the biggest expected slugging percentage underperformers. I don't think he's going to do that again. I think last season was something close to a best case scenario for, Howie Kendrick pretty much across the board. But with the DH, I think he's someone who absolutely belongs on your draft board. And then the other point I would make is, you know,

you said the league average is 252. Obviously, that includes pitchers and that includes guys who aren't playing a role in fantasy. So last season to finish in sixth place in a 12-team Roto League, which is right in the middle, 267 was the batting average that teams had in 2019. So you're probably looking at average for a fantasy team being something around 265 to 267 to 269.

And so, you know, that bar is still pretty low. If someone hits 280, they're helping you in batting your average. And, you know, there are more guys than you think who can help. It's just like Scott said and like Adam said, have to, you're going to be sacrificing in other places to accomplish that goal. I want to quickly talk about ERA, some guys that, and this is also a tough one as well. So I married these two together, ERA and batting average. It's, you know, trying to predict ERA first season is something that's very tough to do.

But Scott, you know, I wanted to ask you specifically about in Roto using middle relievers who have great ERAs. Is this something that you've ever tried, have you used it as a viable? strategy because I have some names here who can likely be helpful in the category this season. And they go super late as middle relievers. Will Harris, Emilio Pagan, Seth Lugo, Usmero Petit, and even Will Smith. He goes a little bit earlier because he still might be in the mix for saves with the Atlanta Braves. But is this something that you have used in the past to try and lower your ratio in a roto league,

not a head-to-categories league? I have. It's usually something I've pivoted to in season when, you know, it seems like improving my pitching situation through trade is just too big of a hurdle to clear. And it's clear. It's clear at that point. I don't have enough. I can't just wait for guys to come around. I have to start making some hay in that category.

So, yeah, that's the thing is even in, you know, even in like 15 team leagues, even in like AL and in a lonely leagues, there are always relievers who can help. with those ratios. It's not something you should have to pay for. It's not something you should have to invest your draft capital in. You can just pick them up when the time comes where you need them. So it's never my intention to do that. I try to get the most impact possible from the staff I draft, which would mean drafting starters and hoping, you know, starters and closers and hoping they they live up to my expectations, they live up to my wildest hopes, I guess would probably be a fair way of putting it.

And then if they don't, I pivot. That's usually how I handle it. I also took a look at the ATC projections for ERA, and I found six starting pitchers that were projected for a 3.90 ERA or less with an ADP outside of the top 150. Adam, I'm going to run a few names by you. You let me know which one you think is,

most likely to help in ERA in 2020. Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Lance McCullors, Carlos Martinez, Kyle Hendrix, and Alex Wood. All six of those names met the criteria I mentioned. If Carlos Carrasco is back to normal, then he's, you know, potentially a 330-ERA guy. If he had three years in a row, 332, 329, 338, and then 529 last year. So Carrasco jumps off the page. Like I said, I would take him ahead of Corey Klover. So I think he's incredible value.

Chris, same question to you. Carrasco, Stroman, McCullors, Carlos Martinez, Kyle Hendrix, Alex Wood. Can you see any of those being a contributor in ERA? Yeah. And to add that additional context, a 390 ERA would have been, would have gotten you fifth place as a team last year. And obviously the bar for starting pitchers is actually a little bit. but lower than that because your relievers are generally going to have much lower than a 390RA.

So, you know, 389 might not sound great. In this environment, it's actually pretty helpful. I think the obvious one has to be Kyle Hendricks, who has had an ERA of 395 or lower in every season of his major league career and has had an ERA of 3, 4, 6, 4 years in a row, and 5 out of 6. the ATC projections have been the most accurate in fantasy over the last at least two years maybe longer and so I do want to give due deference to that you know they it compiles projections from around the industry and then kind of takes it in it's a wisdom of the crowd kind of thing that weights based

on accuracy as well that being said Kyle Hendrix is probably going to have an ERA lower than 388. It's been the case pretty much every single season of his career. The peripherals don't wow you. He's had a FIP of 388, 378, and 361 over the last three seasons, but the ZRA has been 303, 344, and 346. He limits hard contact just about as well as anyone in baseball. And when you do that and you don't give up walks and you don't give up home runs, which is part of the limiting hard contact, you're going to outperform your peripherals. And I think this is one situation where maybe this is the year that it all falls apart. He's walking a narrow margin for error because he throws 87 miles an hour. But the track record is so good and so consistent that I think

Kyle Hendricks is a good value in a Roto League and someone who's almost certainly going to help you in ERA and WIP. Kyle Hendricks, I just want to add. He had a 326 ERA before the last two starts of the season where he gave up 11 and a third runs in eight innings or no, sorry, eight earn runs and 11 and a third. There you go. His ERA rose from 326, 346 and he actually said, Kyle Hendricks said that he was dealing with fatigue late in the year. So he worked on strengthening his legs, his shoulder, and his back during the offseason. So I don't think he's going to deal with fatigue late in the year this year.

Yeah. That's a good thing. Bad signs, though. heart contact rate was up, ground ball rate was down, he was terrible third time through the order. He scares me every single year. But there's, there's too, you know, there's a lot to look at with Kyle Hendricks. But he does seem to outperform his expectations every year for sure. And I want to throw a little love Carlos Martinez's way because I feel like he has a very

similar profile to Hendrix and a very similar track record too. Past five seasons, a 32ERA. that's combined past five seasons, 322. The highest, only once in those five years, did he have an ERA above 350. So consistently low ERA for him. The whips, you know, substandard, and the strikeouts, a little substandard too.

But very consistent and backstarting and shouldn't have the same durability questions in a shorter season, whether it ends up being 48 games or 78 games. Yeah, and Carlos Martinez is someone who I kind of avoided when you had to draft him as an ace. I felt he was miscast in that role for your fantasy team. But yeah, he's pretty consistently been a very good ERA guy.

One other thing I want to point out very quickly is, you know, the idea of using middle relievers to lower your ERA, ERA is all about team context and fantasy. The more innings you throw, the more innings your team throws, the harder it is to lower your ERA. because that denominator is so much higher. And so if you're going to go with middle relievers, it's probably easier to go into the season with that as a strategy

and then try to make up wins and strikeouts if you need to, which you probably would in that instance. But yeah, it's always a tough balancing act because a reliever with 50 innings of a one ERA helps your team's ERA about the same as a guy was a 3-3-E-R-A and 200-A-Ns. I got five words for you. Tap, hap, A-M-C.

It's not five words. That's an acronym. I guess you could write it out, right? Like the tap. Tap is a word. A-Y. H-M. Yeah, like hapless.

Hap is a word. If you could be hapless, there's got to be something called hap. A. is a word. C is definitely a word. And then M is a, yeah, we're struggling there. Tapab AMC, keep it in mind when you're drafting here for a shortened season. But there you go.

A little look at batting average. A little look at ERA. We'll do this throughout the course of the week. We'll look at one hitting category and one pitching category. And hopefully find some of these late round guys that can help you. Seriously, put some respect on Kyle Hendricks. I've been doubting this guy for years. And I've basically missed out on all of his production.

This will be the year that I buy in, and this will be the year that he has like a 4.50 ERA. So looking forward to that. For Adam Scott and Chris, we're going to wrap this up. We'll be back again tomorrow. We appreciate you listening. Fantasy Baseball today. Talk to you again tomorrow. Bye-bye.