Fantasy Baseball Today - Ranking Blake Snell & 2024 First Two Rounds! (9/26 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: September 26, 2023

Blake Snell has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 23 straight starts (3:19)! ... We got vintage Justin Verlander on Monday (13:25). ... We haven't given Logan Webb enough credit this season (16:15). ... Is Lui...s Castillo the SP3 overall in 2024 (21:07)? ... Jon Gray finally bounced back with a quality start (25:47). ... Adolis Garcia continues to crush baseballs (29:46). ... News (37:05): Ketel Marte should be back in the lineup Tuesday. ... Let's get into the way-too-early 2024 first round (42:36). Bobby Witt second overall!? Matt Olson and Jose Ramirez in the second round (54:27)? Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Let's make it 23 straight starts allowing three earned runs or fewer for your likely NL-Sai-Young winner, Blake Snell.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, September 26. I am Frank Sample, joined by Scott White. Today on the show, we had some big pitching performances on a pretty small slate here. Only four games on the schedule. Blake Snell was awesome again. We had vintage Justin Verlander on the mound. And Logan Webb, who we probably haven't talked enough about this year. We'll talk about some pitching schedule updates.
Starting point is 00:00:59 I saw your tweets about Kentimaeita, Scott. He got pushed back. He's going to work in relief this week. So that kind of threw some things off. And let's have some fun. I know last week you wrote up an article, your first two rounds for 2024. So a very early look. We'll do that a little bit later on.
Starting point is 00:01:17 Once again, a big thank you to everybody who's already left a five-star rating and review on Apple. Also love seeing the tweets or what do we call these things now, Scott? X's I call them tweets on Twitter. That's what I call them. Yeah, we probably should just stick with that. But yeah, we really do appreciate it. Continue to send those in. It's a lot of fun seeing those screenshots, championships, whatever you
Starting point is 00:01:39 want to say we really do appreciate it. Scott, let's jump in and talk about Monday's action. Can you believe it? Wow. Wow. Blake's now, Scott. Another great start. He's all yours. Another great start. I mean, he probably clinched the Cy Young. Last time out, we talked about that with his, what was it, seven no-hit innings. So this is just icing on the cake, but six shutout innings at the Giants. Unfortunately, he didn't get a win out of it because Logan, Webb was so good, but six shot-out innings for Blake Snell, 21 swinging strikes on 100 pitches, seven strikeouts, you know, the typical Blake Snell stuff. And this is now in his last six starts, Blake Snell has a total of two run runs across six starts. That is, if you're keeping score at home, a 047 ERA.
Starting point is 00:02:37 And obviously, you know, the overall ERA it leads baseball, he's going to win the Sanyang. But there's still that issue of all the walks. And so this was a funny stat. During that six-start stretch where he's allowed a total of two-run runs for a 047 ERA, Blake Snell has given up only 15 hits. He's issued 19 walks.
Starting point is 00:02:59 He's given up more walks than hits during that six-start stretch, which is just, So perfect. So good. And it does help to fuel the fire a little bit about, could he possibly repeat this feat last year? And I'm on the side of probably not. Gosh, is Blake Snell going to be the most?
Starting point is 00:03:28 I already got in enough trouble with Cubs fans for a statement like this about Justin Steele. But is Blake Snell going to be the most? disappointing multi-say-young winner ever. It just came to mind now. I hadn't thought about that. I would have to look up all the other pitchers that have won multiple Sy Youngs. So, yeah, I mean, you got, I think Tim Linzacum won three times,
Starting point is 00:03:52 and obviously is not Hall of Fame bound because his career crashed so hard, and Brett Saberhagen won multiple times, and, you know, obviously didn't wind up in the Hall of Fame. Those immediately come to mind. but like they for the time that they were winning Sy Young's they were consistently dominant best pitcher in baseball
Starting point is 00:04:13 at least in the conversation while Blake Snell has had such an up and down career and well there's little you could critique about that first science season this one you know very unconventional with all the walks so it's yeah it's
Starting point is 00:04:30 I don't know I'm not going to rank them I'm not going to rank them that high going into next year. I feel pretty confident saying that. Yeah, I know you have another article you posted on the site about pitchers, well, just players in general that are going to be tough to rank for next year. And among your five pitchers, one of them was Blake Snell. Another one was Justin Furlander, who we'll talk about in just a little bit as well. Yeah, Blake Snell, I was texting with a buddy. Such an interesting career, as you mentioned. I mean, it's been up and down. The control has been an issue. He was so dominant that second year with Tampa Bay. He won the
Starting point is 00:05:06 Syung there. But even then, he was kind of limited that season. Like, he really didn't go more than six innings like that many times that season. I mean, he had 21 wins. He had an ERA below two. He deserved it. There's no doubt. Like, he deserved the Sa Yung. Nobody was like, ooh, this is an icky sign. I guess some people were like that. Some people were, you know, like, is this what the Syungs come to that a guy who throws 180 innings or whatever it was can win it. But we've seen that. Basically, that
Starting point is 00:05:37 happened with a few Cy Young winners at this point. It was just over 180-innings. Yeah, 21 wins, a 189 ERA in 2018. Not as controversial of a winner then, as
Starting point is 00:05:54 I would say, Blake Snow will be in 2023, five years later. Some other stats on Blake Snow, like I know it's been a weird year for the NL Sy Young. I do think that he is a deserving winner. Just looking at some of these stats, I mean, 225 ERA, obviously
Starting point is 00:06:09 that leads baseball. 234 strikeouts, second most in baseball behind only Spencer Shrider. 181 batting average against, that is by far the best in baseball. Corbyn Burns is actually second at 198. So Blake Snell, for, you know,
Starting point is 00:06:25 as much as the walks are a big problem, 99 walks this season leads baseball. He's been unhittable. He has you know, he's done some really great things. Check out. Yeah. I don't want to wind up in the same quagmire I did with Justin Steele. When, you know, however I'm using the word undeserving, I want to clarify what I mean by that.
Starting point is 00:06:45 Like, if I was voting for in El Sa Young, Blake Snow would get my vote. I think he's been the best pitcher in the National League. But he's been the best pitcher in the National League in a down year for pitching overall. And he's done it in a very unconventional way with all the walks. You know, his FIP is 344, his ex-FIP is 362, his XERA is even higher. His XERA is around 375. And that's part of the reason why I don't think I can rank to get this guy that high next year. And I hesitate to put a number on it until I start stacking up names.
Starting point is 00:07:19 But I'm not confident Snell will be in my top 20 next year at the position. As the ERA leader and reigning-Sy Young winner. I'm not confident in that. I think he'll be inside my top 20, but you're right that for a Cy Young winner who, again, has all these strikeouts and the best ERA in baseball, you would think there's like he's a no doubt, you know, top five, top 10 starting pitcher and fantasy. And he won't be that for me. He'll probably be somewhere in the, I think 15 to 20 range just off the top of my head. Let's put it to the test just a little bit because I have said Cole Reagan's probably in my top 20. Terrick Scoobble probably in my top 20.
Starting point is 00:07:58 Oh. You're taking Snell over those guys? Oh. I, man. I mean, I... It's so tough to say. It's easy to say now. Snell is pretty established, though.
Starting point is 00:08:14 I make it out when I actually go to do it. It may be one of those situations where I rank Snell low enough that I know I won't draft him, but I don't actually want to draft him that high. Like, I don't want to seem like a complete loon. I don't know. It depends what other people do. how that's going to be interpreted, I guess. But the bottom line is it would have to be a pretty steep discount for me to take Snell next year,
Starting point is 00:08:38 which has been the case the last few years, really. Yep. And Blake Snell, by the way, entering free agency this offseason, he is out on the market. He's going to be a free agent and we'll see which team he winds up on. Seems like he really does like pitching for the Padres and they still have a well-established roster that I imagine they're going to try and compete with next year. So wouldn't surprise me if Blake Snell is back with the Padres again next year. A few other fun stats on him.
Starting point is 00:09:06 These secondary pitches that Blake Snell has are just ridiculous. The curveball, a 0.076 batting average against, a 56% whiff rate. The change-up 190 batting average against 47% whiff rate, and the slider, 123 batting average against 54% whiff rate. Normally when we look at ace pitchers, if they have two secondary pitches that have a whiff rate over 30%, Scott, I think we feel pretty good about that. You know, if you have a pitch that's over 40,
Starting point is 00:09:39 the fact that he is three pitches with a whiff rate 47% or better is truly remarkable stuff for Blake's Nell. So again, the stuff is fantastic for him. And I mentioned the stat at the top. 23 straight starts, three earned runs or fewer for Blake Snell. during that stretch, it's been two earn runs or less in 21 of those, one earn run or fewer in 17, zero earned runs in 13 of those 23 starts.
Starting point is 00:10:07 And this was a fun stat from Sarah Langs on Twitter. Blake Snow has a 1.2 ERA in his last 23 starts. Only other pitchers with an ERA that low in a single season 23 start span since earned runs became official in both leagues back in 1913. Bob Gibson, Grover Alexander, Walter Johnson, and Dutch Leonard. Those last three were in 1915, 1914, and 1914. So he is doing something historic this season. Shout it to Blake's now.
Starting point is 00:10:37 He's been awesome, but we'll be a interesting pitcher to rank. I'm already starting to hesitate with the Terrick Scoobal Cole Reagan's thing. I was kind of mulling over it a little more. There's just like a raw feeling of, I don't want Blake Snell. next year. I do want Cole Regan's and Terrick Scoobel next year. But part of what accompanies that feeling is how I think
Starting point is 00:11:01 they're going to be valued by people at large. And that's unknowable at this point. I don't know. I'll pull up the results of that one mock draft and did Blake Snow go? Do you happen to remember? We can't spend the whole podcast talking about, we could
Starting point is 00:11:18 spend the whole podcast talking about Blake Snow. We probably could. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Pretty interesting name there. Trying to refresh. He went with the 10th pick of round 5, so that would be pick 70. Other starting pitchers who went in that same range.
Starting point is 00:11:33 Yeah, he went just ahead of Max Fried, Freddie Peralta, Kodai Senga, Justin Steele, Pablo Lopez. And Reagan's and, like, it happened long enough ago
Starting point is 00:11:42 that I don't think Reagan's in Scoob, or anybody was thinking about them in this range, right? It looks like SP15 off the board for Blake Snow in that mock draft. That might, Yeah. Okay. I'll think about it some more.
Starting point is 00:11:55 All right. Well, let's talk about another pitcher here who is also going to be a tough one to rank for next year. Vintage Justin Verlander at the Mariners in, again, another massive series. Mariners kind of shooting themselves in the foot right now. But a great start for Verlander, eight plus innings, three hits allowed, one earned run, eight strikeouts for him. And, you know, he has a 332 ERA and a 113 whip, but the underlying numbers, not buying it. 388 FIP, 4-56 X-FIP, and you look at what's changed, the fastball, much more hitable this season.
Starting point is 00:12:28 His slider has lost some whiffs. His K-minus walk rate went from 23% last year to 14.5% this year. That is a massive drop. Also has given up some hard contact, and he's, what, 40 years old, you know, started the season on the IL. Wouldn't surprise me if maybe he kind of pitched through that,
Starting point is 00:12:47 I think it was like the major terrorist strain or whatever it was. So it wouldn't surprise me if that kind of hampered him for part of the season this year. Regardless, this was an awesome start. Verlander also a tough pitcher to rank for next year. Well, yeah, he's a tough pitcher to rank because there have been obvious signs of decline. He's going to be 41. He's had starts like this. His last, did you give the numbers from his last seven starts? Nope. They're very, they're nice even numbers. So in his last seven starts,
Starting point is 00:13:16 Justin Verlander has a three ERA, a one whip, and exactly a strikeout per inning. which is good. I mean, certainly in this environment, you know, in past years I might say, eh, only a strikeout per inning, but, you know, that seems to be
Starting point is 00:13:32 among the good starting pitchers that seems to be more common right now. So, like, he's had a good season, but how much more will he decline next year, I think, is at the forefront of my thoughts with Justin.
Starting point is 00:13:51 Verlander. So I can say for sure he'll rank behind Blake's now. And I've more comfortable saying Justin Verlander will be behind Cole Reagan's and Terrick Scoobal because I think he's, I think he's, you know, he's clearly on the down swing now. And I'm fine drafting him as kind of a rotation stabilizer, but that that's the cost I want to pay for him. I don't want to pay Ace cost for Justin Verlander anymore because I think it's pretty unlikely he's going to live up to that next year. Yeah, I would agree with that as well. Behind Regens, behind Terrick Scouble. I think he's probably going to be in the glob, maybe, you know, right at the forefront of it, but I don't know, off the top of my head, maybe like a top 30 starting pitcher somewhere around there,
Starting point is 00:14:42 I think, for Justin Verlander heading into next season. Let's talk about Logan Webb, who also had a great start opposing Blake Snell, his second career complete game, both of those coming this season. He allowed nine hits, one run allowed, zero walks, seven strikeouts in this one for Logan Webb, 16 hard hits allowed, 90.3, average exit velocity against. He just leaned all the way into that change up through it 57% of the time. That was a 41% usage entering this one. It's been a good pitch for him, 220 batting average against. Does not get a lot of whiffs on it. Only 23% percent whiff rate, but this is now six straight quality starts for Logan Webb. And we were talking beforehand, Scott.
Starting point is 00:15:24 This feels a lot like Sandy Alconsoor from last year. It's volume-based. There's not a lot of, you know, per-enning whiffs or per-inning strikeouts, but because he leads baseball with 216 innings, you know, he's right around 200 strikeouts for the season. But the ratios have been very good. And, you know, entering today, he was a top seven pitcher and head-to-head point. a little bit lower in Roto.
Starting point is 00:15:49 Feels like we probably haven't talked about Logan Webb or given him enough credit this season. The one thing I worry about is just a guy who pitches to contact giving up as much hard contact as Logan Webb does. But maybe I shouldn't worry because you look at his last three seasons, they've all been pretty similar and they've been rock solid. Well, and most, so much of that contact is on the ground. He's like a 60% ground ball guy,
Starting point is 00:16:13 which is even more than Sandy Alcantra. had been prior to this year. And, yeah, the strikeout rate is a little underwhelming for a high-end pitcher, but he's as good as it gets in terms of throwing strikes and putting the ball on the ground. So I think that makes up for it. You know, he seems like a very safe choice.
Starting point is 00:16:41 And, well, I guess the natural question to ask isn't next year Logan Webb or Blake Snell? I think Logan Webb. I think so too. I don't know that I say it with 100% confidence, you know, it's like... I mean, if you tell me Blake Snell is going to do this again next year,
Starting point is 00:17:00 then okay, Blake Snell. But I have a lot of reason to doubt that, don't I? Yeah. It's just too risky of an investment for the level of, investment it is when Webb feels a lot safer. They're kind of polar opposite pitchers, right? Logan Webb does it with control, pitching to contact, volume.
Starting point is 00:17:24 Blake Snow's the opposite. You know, he walks a ton, he gets the whiffs, he gets the strikeouts, he's more flashy. If you told me Sandy Alcantara this year, I would have said, oh, that's a very safe pick. You know, he's going to keep runs off the board. You know, he's going to throw a lot of innings. And it turned out to be not such a great pick. And I've talked a bit about, okay, really like targeting upside with starting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:17:52 But I think that's more for like pitchers in the glob. I don't know. I'm probably not drafting either of them, to be honest. I'm just not even going to bother to rank the top 20 starting pitchers. Who cares? You know what you should do, Scott? Just put a bunch of names in a hat and have your kids pick them out. And that'll be your top 20 starting pitchers for next season.
Starting point is 00:18:09 I did announce on Twitter a website, a little website you may have heard of. today that I was beginning the painstaking how did I word it I thought it was pretty good okay so I'm beginning the painstaking process of building 2024 rankings
Starting point is 00:18:27 that I'll then hastily rearrange based on February and March draft trends and I got you know a couple people responded with that like good luck drafting I mean good luck ranking starting pitchers because that just seems like a nightmare
Starting point is 00:18:43 And that's true. And that's mostly true for the 60 or so in the glob, right? We're not even talking about pitchers in the glob. We're talking about ones not in the glob, above the glob. And it's still like, I don't know. I guess Logan Webb over Blake's now. But I think what you said is correct. Unless, like, I think those guys are probably going to be third or fourth round picks.
Starting point is 00:19:10 I don't know. Maybe everyone's going to be off Blake's now and he's more like a fifth. round pick, but just based on that, I'm probably not going to draft either one of those two pitchers either. The ground ball rate, which we mentioned for Logan Webb, by the way, 62%. That leads baseball by far. Framber Valdez is second behind him with a 54% rate. So nobody in baseball gets ground balls at a higher rate than Logan Webb has this season. Let's talk about a few other pitching performances here from Monday. Luis Castillo, you want to talk about Rock Solid. The guy has been great all year.
Starting point is 00:19:43 altered in this big spot here against the Houston Astros, six innings, five runs, eight strikeouts to one walk. He had 13 swinging strikes on 92 pitches. But even after this rough outing, a 320 ERA, a 106 whip, 15% swinging strike rate, his highest since 2020. He entered this start as both the, as the SP4 in both Roto and head-to-head points leagues this season. He's on the Mariners again next year, a team that looks like they continue to get better. Obviously, they're a pretty young team, but I think he should have a pretty decent offense and defense behind him as well. I don't think this is controversial in any way. Luis Castillo is going to be drafted ahead of both, again, ahead of all three pitchers we've talked about so far.
Starting point is 00:20:29 And rightfully so. Yes. Yes. Luis Castillo top five pitcher next year. Count on it. Yeah. No, I think that's pretty much in stone for now. that mock draft that I did a couple weeks back, Luis Castillo was the third starting pitcher off the board at pick 28, which sounds about right for, you could make an argument for a lot of pitchers to be the third off the board.
Starting point is 00:20:58 I think Strider and Cole are pretty set as the one and two options. But who is going to make the play for the third starting pitcher in next year's draft? and who are they going to decide is worth making that play for. I think Castillo's in the discussion. That's obviously what happened in that mock, but I think there are, I don't know, probably eight to ten other pitchers
Starting point is 00:21:24 who are in that discussion. Yeah, you look at the pitchers that went right after him. Kevin Gosman, the whip is really high. Still kind of has more blow-up starts than you'd like to see from a top five starting pitcher. Zach Gallin, you know, he's come back to Earth a little bit here in the second half.
Starting point is 00:21:41 He doesn't get as many whiffs as somebody like Luis Castillo does. I think Zach Wheeler is, might be the next closest for me, at least, with a claim to that SP3 spot because while the ERA is a little inflated, his underlying numbers are still really, really good. Well, and then you got the Brewers, Brandon Woodruff and Corbyn Burns. I think they're in the mix. You've brought up the name Tyler Glass now before. On a per inning basis, he's probably a 5-year.
Starting point is 00:22:09 I mean, you're selling out for upside. Yeah. He's got a lot of it. So, yeah, that's going to be like, whoever I rank third, I'm probably not going to draft unless it's an unpopular choice to rank third. You know, I'm probably just going to, that seems like a very large tier, and I'm not going to be the one to dip into it first. Yeah, I think that's fair.
Starting point is 00:22:34 Let's take our first break when we return. We'll talk about the rest of Monday's action here. Again, only four games on his schedule. John Gray had a bounce back. start. Did have some hitting standouts as well. We'll talk about those right after this. Welcome back in. Let's hit the rest of those Monday leftovers. John Gray back on track with a quality start at the Angels, six innings of one run ball, seven strikeouts to zero walks. He got up to 81 pitches. He came back out for the seventh inning. He was warming up and then he left
Starting point is 00:23:02 the start with the trainer because of right wrist soreness and the Rangers said it was precautionary, but obviously this is much better than anything we've seen recently for John Gray. His previous six starts, a 799 ERA and a 194 whip. Just completely lean into that slider, which is typically his best pitch. And I lied, Scott. I am a liar. You can call me a liar on this very podcast because last one, I said I was going to drop John Gray in Tout Wars, not use him this week.
Starting point is 00:23:34 There was no way I could have done it. And I started him. And I'm happy I did because this was a great start. The free agents... You decided you'd rather be a winner. The free agents were just so bad. Than a liar. The free agents were so bad, Scott.
Starting point is 00:23:46 That is a low integrity play, sir. It is. I have to say. But I'm happy I did it. Any thoughts on John Gray? Yeah, no, you gave the $799 ERA in his past six starts. But his past four starts, he didn't go even four in it. in any of them.
Starting point is 00:24:08 He was like a long reliever, basically. And so it's gutsy play by you. Seems to have paid off. And maybe you'll pull off that third consecutive Tout Wars championship, which would be great. There's a lot of baseball left, Scott. There's a lot of baseball left.
Starting point is 00:24:26 There's a lot of left. But you're back in the lead in your two-week matchup. So that's a comfortable, that's a good position to be in. I kind of want to fume about my little fab, snafu last night in the podcast
Starting point is 00:24:38 league. Well, if you could do it in a minute or less, feel free. So I had two dollars left. My competitor in the championship game had one. I looked at waiver priority. I'm ahead and waiver priority. So I'm like, okay,
Starting point is 00:24:55 the most teakin bid on anybody is one. I have priority. I bid one dollar on anybody. I'll get that guy. So I bid one dollar on two start Reese Olson. This is a points league. Mind you, Rees Olson with two gray matchups. I don't win
Starting point is 00:25:09 Reese Olson. He wins Reese Olson for a dollar. I'm like, what on earth happens here? I'm trying to
Starting point is 00:25:17 figure it out. Look at the rules apparently in this particularly league gets set up so that waiver priority
Starting point is 00:25:25 resets every week. And I guess you know, since waivers ran the same night as our matchup ended,
Starting point is 00:25:34 I was in the lead so I won the last week. So I guess I moved behind him in waiver order just before waivers ran. So I even had the thought. Like, why don't I just, why don't I just throw $2 at Rita Olson and that, if there's
Starting point is 00:25:48 something glitchy that happens, I'll win him. But I'm like, no, I did my homework. I'm ahead and waiver priority. There's no way I can lose this. And I ended up losing it. So he gets Reese Olson and I get like Paul Blackburn and we'll see how that goes. But it's not
Starting point is 00:26:05 who was your other how you want to go down who was your other waiver claim on well Paul Blackburn was my top the top one I got oh so you did one dollar on each one on Reese Olson one on Paul Blackburn yeah
Starting point is 00:26:19 okay you were trying to play defense and not let him pick up a two-star pitcher I guess no I might have started Blackburn still gotcha all right because right now I have to start one of my starters is Joe Ryan at Colorado oh yeah all right well I can see why
Starting point is 00:26:35 that's frustrating, Scott, but good luck to you, buddy. We shall see. Again, you know, we still got, what, six days worth of baseball left, so lots of games to play. We'll see what happens. A few hitting standouts here. The Rangers wound up winning that game against the Angels. They hit back-to-back-to-back-home runs
Starting point is 00:26:52 in the sixth inning of that one. Adoles Garcia hit his 37th home run of the season. I think he's kind of an interesting one to rank for next year as well. I feel like we said the same thing three years in a row for Adoli-Scarcia. Mitch Garver continues to do his thing, three for three with his 19th home run.
Starting point is 00:27:09 Nate Lowe went one for four with his 17th, and then the following inning, Marcus Semyon hit his 28th home run, and he's having a pretty big September as well, kind of playing himself back into that, you know, late second round, early third round discussion for Marcus Semyon. Anything on these Rangers home runs? Well, I mean, we'll get into it soon enough,
Starting point is 00:27:30 but I do not have Marcus Semyon in my second round. I think he has a case to go there, but a lot of hitters have a case to go there. It's pretty interesting how the hitter pool, as much as we've talked about the pitcher pool, it's pretty interesting how the hitter pool breaks down for next year. And so Simeon misses the cut there for me. Yeah, the Adoli-Scarcia thing is getting curiouser and curiouser
Starting point is 00:27:54 because now he's not much of a base stealer. He actually walked at a pretty decent rate this year, so I guess the pitchers have been more careful with him since he's sort of proven himself as a power hitter at this point. But he's not young. He's going to be 31 next year. And has the sort of skill set that probably isn't going to age so well. So I don't know.
Starting point is 00:28:20 He's not in my top two rounds either. I will say that, if nothing else, for Adolice Garcia. And then there's Mitch Garver, who might be the most difficult catcher to rank next year. And the catcher is the position I started on today. As of now, he's ninth. As of now, Mitch Garver is ninth, at least for Roto Leagues, in my catcher rankings,
Starting point is 00:28:43 behind Wilson Contreras and Cal Raleigh, ahead of Salvador Perez and Jonah Heim. Okay. If you can follow that logic. I think that sounds like an okay spot. Salvador Perez, I mean, he really, over the past like three or four months just completely fell off.
Starting point is 00:29:03 And I know he's played through a lot of injuries, but he's also getting up there in age and just so. He's played a lot of first base this year, which probably isn't going to have him much next year of any past Guantino's healthy. So is he at a point, you know, Freddie Furman proved to be a viable option behind the plate? Is Salvador Perez at a point where he starts to lose at bat's, I think? That's, what if he's just the DH? I think it's possible. I mean, I don't think he'll be just the DH. He'd probably, you know, split his time behind the plate.
Starting point is 00:29:33 but I mean, they don't have a lot of hitters there. That's a fair point. But, you know, his product, he's showing signs of just like Justin Verlander, Salvador Perez is showing signs of age too. Going back to Adoli-Scarcia real quick, the counting stats are great. We know the Rangers' offense has been awesome this season. 105 run scored 104 RBI. Only nine steals.
Starting point is 00:29:59 His sprint speed really kind of fell off this year. and the Rangers in general, they did not run as much under Bruce Bochy this year. And that's been pretty consistent. If you look at Bruce Bochie's kind of coaching career with the Giants, they didn't steal a lot of bases back then either. And it's just, I think a different team philosophy under their previous manager was Chris Woodward, right? He was very aggressive on the base pass.
Starting point is 00:30:26 I mean, the Rangers led baseball, the two, I think two or three years that he was the manager on their team. So it's just a different philosophy. I don't think we should expect Adelis Garcia to get back to running, you know, one year older. Same thing with Marcus Semyon. I think the days of him being like a 25 or 30 plus stolen base guy are probably behind us as well. But it's just kind of interesting based on that team philosophy under Bruce Bochie.
Starting point is 00:30:50 A few notes here on some Yankees youngsters. You know, I got to put on the Yankees hats guy. I got to, you know, anger some people here. But just wanted to highlight some of these young guys and what they're doing recently. Austin Wells went two for four with his second home run. And he had three batted balls over 104 miles per hour in this game. His last seven, he is betting 280 with two home runs. I think there is a chance.
Starting point is 00:31:16 Austin Wells is the starting catcher for the Yankees heading into next season. I mean, they've got some bad contracts, and I don't think they're going to make it a priority to sign or trade for a catcher. So that's a real possibility. Austin Wells is the starting catcher for them next year. and Oswald Parraza, one for three, with his second home run. He crushed it. 110.6 exit velocity, 443 feet.
Starting point is 00:31:39 And his last 18 games now, he's now batting 290 with two home runs. But a similar kind of, I guess, squeeze here because the Yankees, Anthony Rizzo will be back. D.G. LeMayhew is still under contract, Labor Torres, the final year of his contract. Anthony Volpe likely going to be the starting shortstop on opening day. So I just don't really know where Oswald Pross is going to fit in. Maybe they make a trade and he's starting for another team, but I'm not sure right now. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:11 Yeah, that is a bit of a head scratcher. I mean, the entire direction that the Yankees are going to take, I think is kind of hard to figure out. Like, do they really lean into the youth next year? they still have a lot of investment in their pitching staff, and they're the Yankees, so I kind of doubt it. I mean, especially since Oswald Parraza hasn't really shown that much in this opportunity. I do think Austin Wells has to be the leading contender to be their starting catcher next year.
Starting point is 00:32:49 This was his most productive game so far, but, you know, he's kept the strikeouts down. He's demonstrated the ability to make hard contact. And it seems like they like him as a catcher. I know there were doubts about him defensively coming up through the minors. But they have shied away from using him a catcher. So he'll be, you know, provided they don't make a change behind the plate this offseason, he'll be a sleeper of sorts going into next year, I'd say.
Starting point is 00:33:19 Some interesting quotes from Aaron Judd's, too. After yesterday the Yankees were eliminated from post-season. season contention, officially, although I think they've been eliminated for quite some time now. Aaron Judge, he was asked about the direction of the franchise, and he's saying things need to change, and, you know, I'll have discussions with the higher-ups and stuff. So, I don't know. Kind of an interesting quote there from Judge. Throwing his weight around there. I'm not sure if they're going to have discussions with him, if you know what I mean. I mean, hey, the captain patch, right? So I hope he has some say in the
Starting point is 00:33:53 organization. Look, they have him and Garikola in their primes right now. They can't really have a year where they just lean into a youth movement. I think they still have to try and compete. I don't know. We'll see what happens with the Yankees. Let's hit some news and notes. Ketel Marte has missed too straight with illness, but is expected to be back in the starting lineup on Tuesday. Good news for him. Jake Berger was removed Sunday with right quad tightness, which has been a lingering issue over the past week. So make sure to check lineups on Tuesday. Make sure Jake Berger is in there. Obviously, He's been really good since joining the Marlins, keeping the strikeout right down
Starting point is 00:34:26 and still hitting for a ton of hard contact. Francisco Alvarez is day-to-day with a left-middle finger contusion. X-rays came back negative for any fractures after taking a foul ball off that left hand. Michael Brantley was out of the starting lineup for the seventh straight game on Monday, but was available off the bench.
Starting point is 00:34:46 He's been dealing with a lingering shoulder issue. He had surgery in the off-season. Garrett Mitchell, remember that name. He was one of the top prospects for the brewers coming into the year. He's expected to be activated from the 60-day I-L on Tuesday. He had surgery back in May to repair a subluxation and labrum damage in his left shoulder.
Starting point is 00:35:09 And I got a little concerned, Scott, because I have Markana starting in my Tout Wars team. I don't have a backup outfielder. So I hope that Garrett Mitchell being activated doesn't kind of take playing time away from Markana, I think, if anything, it will probably affect Tyrone Taylor more than anybody else. I would guess that too. I would guess that too, but hard to say for sure. I just, I realized now you mentioned the captain's patch. You were saying Aaron Judge said that. Yeah. Okay. I heard
Starting point is 00:35:42 Aaron Boone. Oh, no. Maybe I did say Aaron Boone. I don't know. I don't know that Aaron Boone needs to be dictating anything to the front office at this point. But okay, now that makes more sense. And on the subject of dumb things, Scott has said this podcast, Tim Linzacum, two-time Sy-Young winner, not three-time Sy Young winner. Don't want you to lose trivia night because of me. Yeah, I actually looked up in an article
Starting point is 00:36:10 when we were having that discussion earlier, Tim Lin-Sicum, two-time Syong winner, Johann Santana? Yeah. He's another... I mean, look, he was a four of four. year stretch, the unquestioned best pitcher in baseball. His peak was so good.
Starting point is 00:36:27 Yeah, his peak was so good. I mean, it's just a short-lived career, I guess, for Johan Santana, unfortunately. Last news item here, Patrick Sandoval left Monday start with right oblique tightness. And let's talk about some of these pitching schedule changes that came out on Monday. Bailey Ober is set to start Tuesday against the Oakland A's. Rocco Baldelli said that Kentomita would pitch in Religious. Leaf at some point this week. The twins have not played yet.
Starting point is 00:36:54 So get Kentima out of your lineups, basically, right? Scott, if you can. Yeah, I mean, that's frustrating. Apparently, Bailey Ober's lined up for the two starts now, but I doubt, I kind of doubt that's going to happen. At least don't make the one start against the athletics, though. And that's a great one.
Starting point is 00:37:13 So I think if you picked up Bailey Ober, you have him laying around, look, if you need a pitcher to and I think it's okay to get Bailey Ober in there. Yeah. And for the Dodgers, game one of their double header in Coors Field still listed as to be determined,
Starting point is 00:37:32 which sounds like Ryan Pepio will either start or he'll be the bulk reliever. I mean, the fact that it's still to be determined leads me to believe he'll play the bulk relief role again. But, you know, that doesn't mean he won't go six innings and pitch well. So I'd rather start him than Bailey O'Ber.
Starting point is 00:37:51 even though it's at Coorsfield. Yeah, because we still have that chance that Ryan Pepio pitches a second time later this week against the Giants. And he's been, I guess, better than Bailey Ober has been recently. Bobby Miller, by the way, is set to start the second game of that doubleheader on Tuesday night
Starting point is 00:38:09 in Corse Field. Let's take our final break, Scott. And when we return, your way too early, first two rounds for the 2024 season, we will discuss right after this. Welcome back in And as we've done For the past couple of weeks
Starting point is 00:38:23 Going to continue working in some Content for next season Look we're still trying to help you win For whoever's competing in the final week But frankly there's not much else To talk about and I think we've covered all of it so far So let's talk about these first two rounds got And this is for
Starting point is 00:38:40 We'll just preface it 12 teams 5 by 5 roto category leagues I'll explain the differences Between Head Dead Points Leagues When we get through these first two rounds. But let's just go through the top six picks
Starting point is 00:38:53 that you have here. Ronald de Cunia, obviously, no-brainer. Number two overall, might surprise some people, but it probably shouldn't. Bobby Witt, Jr., second overall. Here's what I'll read off the top six picks, and then we can kind of go back and discuss some of them. You have Julio Rodriguez third,
Starting point is 00:39:11 Corbyn Carroll, 4th, who stole his 51st base of the season here on Monday. And then you have Mookie Betts 5th, and Freddie Freeman sixth. So explain yourself, Scott. Bobby Witt, second overall. Yeah, I mean, I had been saying in recent weeks that Mookie Betts was going to mean my number two player,
Starting point is 00:39:31 and it turns out he wasn't two or three or four. He was five. And I will specify this is for Categories leagues or Roto leagues. In Points League's bets is my number two. The big reason why I decided to put those others ahead of him, Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn Carroll. It's stolen bases. I mean, stolen bases are more plentiful now,
Starting point is 00:39:56 but, you know, as much as we've talked about Ronald DeCunia being the fourth player ever with 30 home runs and 50 steals, or I'm sorry, the third player ever with 30 homers and 50 steals in a season, and obviously he's exceeded those thresholds. Bobby Witt's the fourth player ever with 30 homers and 50 steals in the season. He hasn't done it yet, Scott. You're right, but he will. He's at 29 and 48. I think he will.
Starting point is 00:40:22 He should do it just a week. Yeah. When I wrote those words, he's kind of slowed down, but he should. And he's drastically underperformed his expected stats this year, too. I mean, he's done a good job to make up ground and batting average in the second half. But, I mean, Stack has makes him out to be like an easy 300 hitter. I don't know, well, easy might be exaggerating, but it makes him out to be like a 300 hitter. I don't know that you necessarily need Bobby Witt to do that
Starting point is 00:40:49 to justify the second overall pick but it's just the amount of steals these guys can provide Whit Rodriguez Carol. I mean, Carol's over 50 steals this season. Rodriguez, he's showing 40 steel potential at least. And like that is such, even though steals are more plentiful, even though I don't know that we have to sell our soul for everyone with 20 steel potential
Starting point is 00:41:17 because there's just a lot more of them now. When you're talking about 40 or 50 steals while also providing first round production as a hitter and all the other ways, the home runs, the runs, the RBI. Batting average a little ifier, but maybe batting average too. I think you're a fool to pass that up early in Roto leagues.
Starting point is 00:41:38 It's such a big bite out of that stolen base apple and just makes your path much easier going forward. It does come with a little more risk. I mean, we've seen dramatic ups and downs both as a freshman and a sophomore for Julio Rodriguez. I know why I said freshman as a rookie and a sophomore for Julio Rodriguez. But the final numbers are where they are, and the final numbers are, I think, justifying a third overall pick here. Carol, Corbyn Carroll, you know, kind of have some concerns about that shoulder. Is that going to keep popping up again for him?
Starting point is 00:42:13 Is that going to reveal a longer-term injury at some point? it's possible. But this is a potential, he might be the fifth player to become a 30 homer 50 steel guy in a season. He has that kind of upside. And so I think the slightly elevated risk for guys like Witt, Rodriguez, and Carol,
Starting point is 00:42:34 you know, I think you have to be willing to accept that for that big steals total in this scoring format. So that's why Mookie Betts is only fifth and Freddie Freeman is only sixth. That said, I think these top six, it's pretty hard to dispute. I know the early mock, the few mock drafts we've seen already,
Starting point is 00:42:53 they haven't been exactly in this order. And in fact, we've seen Freddie Freeman go as late as like 10th and Mooky Betts as well. But I have a hard time justifying putting them any lower than I have them here, fifth and sixth. I mean, they're not zeros for stolen bases. They are monsters and everything else. Freeman may be the home run production.
Starting point is 00:43:15 has been better in the past, but he's the safest bet for batting average and then he's going to score a ton of runs, drive and a ton of runs, batting high in the Dodgers lineup. I do think it's unlikely Mookie Bet sets a career high in home runs for a third consecutive year,
Starting point is 00:43:33 so I think a step back is more likely than a step forward, but he's going to retain second base eligibility in addition to having outfield eligibility. So once you get past those potential 30 homer slash 40 or 50 steel guys that quartet at the top I think Betts and Freeman
Starting point is 00:43:53 make for very easy choices after that. Yeah, I would mostly agree with that in the mock draft that I did, Freddie Freeman went 12th overall to me. I don't think that's going to happen in many drafts. Next year, I think
Starting point is 00:44:06 maybe in a mock draft, people just didn't want to take the boring Freddie Freeman kind of play. But what he does from accounting stats, perspective, 125 run scored and a 332 batting average. Now, I wouldn't bet on Freeman repeating a 332, but I think he could still hit 315, 320. And that type of help in batting average is just invaluable. That is, it's incredible. So if you can't get a huge stolen base output
Starting point is 00:44:37 from your first rounder, you need to make sure you get batting average from your first rounder. Yeah. And so that's, I mean, Freeman, Freeman, like. Like I said, he's the safest bet for that among the early round picks. And I'll have Corbyn Carroll a little bit lower. I talked about this recently. It's nothing to do with his production. His obviously top prospect coming into the year and he's lived up to it. And then some, it's just that shoulder.
Starting point is 00:45:01 And the way that I draft is I like to kind of play it as safe as I possibly can in the first round. So that'll just be for me, but I have no problem if anyone wants to rank him or draft him in the top five next year. The back half of the first round includes Kyle Tucker. Spencer Strider, Fernando Tatis, Aaron Judge, Corey Seeger, and your Don Alvarez. Kyle Tucker, by the way, hit his 29th home run of the season here on Monday. He also leads the American League with 110 RBI. So finally, Dusty Baker, the season has put Kyle Tucker higher up in the lineup, and obviously the counting stats have come through better.
Starting point is 00:45:38 But 29 homers, 29 steals. I think, you know, hopefully he's a good bet to get to 30-30 by the end of this week. a 281 batting average. Doesn't have the monster kind of upside, I think, that quartet at the top does, Scott. But, man, Tucker, as a 30-30 guy in that lineup, I think he's totally deserving of this spot here. And then the other names, I mean, it's your first starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:46:01 Fernando Tatis is going to be a fun discussion all offseason long. Aaron Judge still has as much power as anybody. Corey Seeger, obviously huge season, but he's had some injury risk. Same thing with Yurdon Alvarez. You know, as good as he is, might be the best pure, like, power and hitter, just pure hitter combined in baseball. But he has only played more than 135 games once in his career. So I think we have to factor that in.
Starting point is 00:46:30 That's the only reason Alvarez is this low. And I do think this group is more disputable than the first group of six, both the order and, you know, whether or not these even should be the next six names. because there are some very interesting names coming up in round two. Like I said, I only have two starting pitchers in my first 24, my first two rounds here. Only two starting pitchers, Strider, who we mentioned here, and then Cole will see in round two. And yet, it feels like there are more first round caliber hitters than can fit in round one. And there are more second round caliber hitters that can fit in round two. So it's a deep class of elite hitters that I still think is worth drafting.
Starting point is 00:47:11 I don't think you zig while everyone else is zagging. I'm going to take the pitchers here because it's much harder to figure out who the best pitchers are. But I do think there's a pretty steep drop off eventually among hitters, and so you want to gobble up as many of these guys as you can. But figuring out what order they should go in is going to be very tricky. I did give Tucker the edge because he is, there are really no flaws from a five-by-five perspective in Kyle Tucker's game. Maybe he doesn't score quite as many runs because,
Starting point is 00:47:41 his on base skills are a little less and he bats he tends to bat not as high in the lineup as some of these guys but he's going to give you power speed RBI pretty good batting average probably so he's just like a really safe
Starting point is 00:47:55 all around contributor but Tatees judge Seeger Alvarez they probably all have more upside than Tucker we've certainly seen that from Tatees and Judge in the past I mean Tatees we're talking about what a
Starting point is 00:48:10 disappointing first season back. This has been after the surgeries and the suspension last year. But coming into Monday, 135 games, 25 homers, 29 steals. I mean, he's still a pretty good bet for a 30-30 season. It's not as much power as we've seen from him in the past. And I do wonder how much maybe the PEDs boosted his power. I mean, that's possible. We don't know exactly the backstory with that or what effects it may have had.
Starting point is 00:48:45 Also, the fact that one of the surgeries he had torn labrum in the shoulder, it's a difficult joint to get back to exactly where it was before. And if that's kind of dragged down Tatis's power in a permanent way too, and yet still seems like a 30-homer outcome is on the table. He's only hit about 2.35 in the second half, so that's been pretty disappointing. But I do think we look back at this Tatis. ranking of number nine at the end of next year and say,
Starting point is 00:49:15 man, it was stupid to rank Tauti is that low. I think that's very possible. I have a lot of faith in Seeger. I think, you know, some of the injury stuff, Tommy John,
Starting point is 00:49:27 I think he had hip surgery too. It's not all, it's not all recurring types of injuries. And I think, I think he's as studly of a bad as you can find. No speed, basically.
Starting point is 00:49:40 So that is the sacrifice you're making there. But I think the batters who are going to give you the kind of stolen base outcome that makes them worth elevating still in this more speed-saturated environment, I think they're already gone at this point. So just take this awesome hitter in Seeger, Phil Shortstop, which isn't going to be as deep next year as we've gotten used to it being, I think that's a good call. I don't feel entirely comfortable having Seeger sandwiched in between Aaron Judge and Yorden Alvarez,
Starting point is 00:50:08 because I think in a lot of ways, Aaron Judge and Jordan Alvarez are the same player. But nonetheless, that's where I have them. We have at least seen Judge get to 50 homers twice, and Alvarez hasn't done that yet, though I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for Alvarez. All right, let's run through this second round for next season. And it starts with Matt Olson,
Starting point is 00:50:32 followed by Jose Ramirez, Trey Turner, Garrett Cole, Shohei Otani, and Juan Soto. obviously lots of question marks here as well as got Otani. We have to figure out what happens in the off season. Trey Turner was that brutal first half just due to him pressing first year of a big contract in a obviously a new city in Philadelphia there as well. People will look at Juan Soto and they'll say, no, you can't do the Juan Soto thing again. If you look at his numbers where they're going to wind up this season overall,
Starting point is 00:51:01 I know the batting average, you know, probably a little disappointing at 273, but he's got 33 homers, 105 RBI, 11 steals, he still has a 922 OPS. So, and he's... I don't think I am doing
Starting point is 00:51:15 the Juan Soto thing again. I'm ranking him 18th, not 8th. And he's dropped, yeah, like he's dropped. So I just think some people kind of,
Starting point is 00:51:21 I don't know. I think Juan Soto is just like an easy player to dislike for fantasy, which I don't completely understand, but your thoughts on, on this group of six. So where it really gets,
Starting point is 00:51:31 what I was saying before about, okay, are these six at the end of round one, the right six? the ones who have a claim to that one of those spots instead are the players who have a claim to one of those spots instead are Matt Olson, Jose Ramirez, who of course has been a standard in the first round in recent years, and Trey Turner,
Starting point is 00:51:51 who has had a very nice finish to the season, even though the overall numbers are going to be less than we're used to seeing, and he's ranked more based on those overall numbers. Did he get all the way back on track over the second half with the Phillies? And so is this ranking him too low? And I struggle with that. I struggle with having Jose Ramirez this low because if you just compare Jose Ramirez's numbers to years past,
Starting point is 00:52:15 he looks like basically the same player. I don't think he's gotten worse so much as the hitter crop around him has gotten better. I talked, I don't know, a day or two ago about how the high-end hitters and fantasy points per game are higher this year than we've gotten used to seeing them in recent years. So Jose Ramirez has stayed the same. while other elite hitters have kind of surpassed him. So that's how he's ended up 14th year. There's nothing wrong with them.
Starting point is 00:52:41 It's just that he's not quite as, his numbers aren't as eye-popping as some of those ahead of him, including Matt Olson with the 50 homers. I think it's unlikely, I think the most likely scenario for Matt Olson is he takes a step back next year. He's, you know, maybe 40, 45 home runs instead of 50 to 55. But I've baked that in here because if he's exactly,
Starting point is 00:53:05 if Matt Olson is exactly next year who he was this year with the crazy run production in that Braves lineup, then he's an easy first rounder. So I'm discounting a little here by putting him 13th overall. I know somebody asked me, okay, Trey Turner,
Starting point is 00:53:21 I have Jose Ramirez ahead of Trey Turner here, 14th and 15th. Why not Turner ahead of Ramirez since he obviously has more stolen base upside? Yeah, maybe. I mean, I think there are more reasons, to be concerned about the beginning decline for Turner than they're off for Ramirez, because like I said, Ramirez seems like the same guy.
Starting point is 00:53:42 But I understand that argument, and when push comes to shove, I may ultimately flip them, put Turner ahead just for that chance at like a 40-steal season that Ramirez probably doesn't have. And then obviously, well, Garrett Cole, that seemed like the appropriate place to put him behind Olson Ramirez and Turner, the three first-round caliber bats, who I have leading off the second round tier. And then after that we have Shohei Otani, who of course is a first round caliber bat himself. But I don't know when that bat's going to be available following the elbow surgery he just had.
Starting point is 00:54:13 And I'm not sure it's going to be quite at 100% following the elbow surgery he just had. So he's been discounted here some as well at 17th, yet still ahead of Juan Soto at 18th. And the back half of the second round includes Bryce Harper, Pete Alonzo, Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor, Raphael Devers, and Austin Wright. Bryce Harper, the second half here. He looks like he's all the way back. He'll have first base eligibility for next season. Pete Alonzo, the batting average kind of looks like an outlier this season compared to years past.
Starting point is 00:54:45 So if he can get back over 250 with those 45, maybe even push 50 home runs, I think that's possible. Al Tuvae, he's kind of like Freddie Freeman at second base. You know, he's like older. I think people kind of just view him as boring. But he's hitting well over 300 still. he's on a 30 homer 25 steel pace over a full season. So he's still getting it done. Lindor, he's been a top 13 player two years in a row.
Starting point is 00:55:12 And then Devers and Riley, those guys are kind of like just high floor. I feel like Scott, they're not going to give you steals, but 270, 280 plus, 35 homers, really good counting stats. I think if you can get one of those huge steel total guys in the first four picks to kind of come back around with one of these just, get those counting stats and some power. I think it makes sense with like a Devers and Riley there. So Harper Altuve were the ones that were easy for me to include here in round two, which is why their 19th, 20th and 21, 21st. It gets tricky after that.
Starting point is 00:55:50 So Lindor, Devers, Riley to round out round two. As I was saying earlier, it feels like there are more second round caliber bats that can fit in round two. And so I'm kind of jumping ahead here a little bit. But Ozzy Albiz, not here. Cody Bellinger, Boba Chet and Vladimir Guerrero, who obviously had disappointing seasons,
Starting point is 00:56:11 but had been first round mainstays the past couple of years, not even cracking round two. So I feel like you could, Marcus Simeon, who we mentioned earlier, I feel like you could make an argument for any of those guys over Devers and Riley and maybe even Lendor. And I want to dispute it too much.
Starting point is 00:56:28 I just, I feel like there's less downside with Devers and Riley than some of those other hitters we just name. I mean, obviously, they both outperformed Bichette and Guerrero
Starting point is 00:56:39 by a pretty considerable margin. And even Ozzy Albiz, who the production has been there for him, I do think he's, he's like at the maximum power output he's capable of. Like, he's totally maxed out
Starting point is 00:56:52 his power projection in. So any normalization there could cause him to not perform quite like a second rounder. So that's why I have Devers and Riley head. And Lindor's in here just because I feel like he's maybe, he's one of your last chances at a considerable home run and stolen base total.
Starting point is 00:57:08 He's kind of come close to 30-30 this year. And there aren't going to be too many players available in later, you know, in round three and beyond who can reach those marks. So that's why Lindor's this high. I do want to point out something without two, Vick, because he might raise an eyebrow for some people here at the end of round two and going ahead of Ozzy Albiz and Marcus Simeon, etc. In terms of fantasy points per game,
Starting point is 00:57:31 Jose Altuvae is behind only Acuna, Seeger, Betz, Otani, Olson, and Freeman. He's seventh in head-to-head points per game, and the six ahead of them I just named are basically the six guys who are in the MVP conversation this year. So, you know, he missed a lot of time with injuries earlier this year, specifically the broken thumb, right? I think it was a thumb. This is not going to happen every year, obviously.
Starting point is 00:57:58 But Al-Tuve has certainly proven he is, still an elite bat. And this has been two years running of him getting back to that standard. So I think it's safe to target him like a second round player despite the time he's lost injuries the past couple years.
Starting point is 00:58:15 Jose Altuvae, 75 run scored in 85 games played this year. So, I mean, still that lineup is producing and he's getting on base. He's making contact. He still has power and some speed. So yeah, I'm fully on board with that.
Starting point is 00:58:31 I know he's, he's getting up there a little bit. Al Tuve is, yeah, he turns 34 years old next year, but there really are no signs of decline as of now for him. What changes in a head-to-head points league for next season? Scott mentioned Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. They move up to two and three overall. Other names that move up, Aaron Judge, Corey Seeger,
Starting point is 00:58:52 Yordana Alvarez, Juan Soto, names that move down. I think some of the obvious ones here in a points league, Bobby Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Corby Carroll, Fernando Tatis, Spencer Strider, and then Marcus Semyon and Alex Breggman actually sneak into the back half of the second round. The Strider one, I thought, was kind of interesting, Scott. Yeah, because I have him as a first rounder in the Roto,
Starting point is 00:59:14 and I have him as an early second rounder, right, in the head-to-head points. Yep. And so, the higher Roto ranking is really because he's such an outlier in strikeouts. And obviously, that is a... it's a category unto itself. So if you can get that big of an advantage, like if you're going to invest in a pitcher early, you need to make sure he gives you a big strikeout advantage
Starting point is 00:59:39 and no pitcher does that better than strider. Strikeouts aren't as valuable in points leagues, at least the standard CBS settings, because they're only half a point each. So it doesn't mean they don't have value, but they don't distinguish a pitcher by as much as they do in Roto and categories league. So I feel like Strider isn't as clear of a number one in the points league.
Starting point is 01:00:04 And I also think there's a lower threshold to meet to be a good points league option at starting pitcher. So as a whole, you don't need to be as invested in the elite starting pitchers. You can, you know, a lot of that glob is going to be more useful in a points league than it is going to be in a roto league. So I think in general, paying up for the really elite arms is something that's going to be more justifiable in a Categories League, even though we think of Points Leagues as being the more pitcher. I don't know what the – it's the more pitcher-friendly format, but that doesn't always have the effect you think it does. In this case, I'm saying it's going to make more pitchers, a larger number of pitchers usable than in Categor's Leagues. All right, there you go.
Starting point is 01:00:55 A sneak peek in early look. the first two rounds heading into 2024. Let's wrap up one bullpen update. Clay Holmes struck out two for his 20 second save of the year. And here we go. Streamers, to stream or not to stream on Tuesday. This is according to MLB.com, which is usually pretty accurate, I would say. We have Michael King at the Blue Jays.
Starting point is 01:01:18 I know there were some concerns. He wasn't listed as the starter as of yesterday, but he now is listed as the starter on Tuesday at the Blue Jays, I think Bailey Ober against the Oakland A's, Brian Pepeyo if he starts or bulk relieves, I think those are probably
Starting point is 01:01:36 the top three in some order. Yeah, I agree. I mean, King is a must. The other two, Ober and Pepio probably still want to start him. I think they're good enough that I'm not too afraid of it, but King just looks like he could be a league winner
Starting point is 01:01:54 here on this final week. anybody else that you could talk yourself into Josiah Gray at the Orioles Tanner Halk is facing Tampa Bay Joey Lucchese is going up against the Marlins We have Reed Detmer's against the Rangers Adrian Houser against the Cardinals Maybe Houser actually
Starting point is 01:02:12 I mean the Cardinals lineup is the pits right now Because Aeronado is done for the year Contreras is done for the year It's Goldschmidt and a bunch of kids basically And I think there's a good chance Hauser gives you five or six solid innings. On Wednesday, we have Ranger Suarez up against the Pirates.
Starting point is 01:02:30 We have Wade Miley against those Cardinals. We have no one else that I feel too great about, but I'll mention Brandon Fott at the White Sox. They have been terrible in the second half, but specifically against righties, they've been really, really bad.
Starting point is 01:02:49 I don't know, Dane Dunning at the Angels. Their lineup is not very good right now. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, Ranger Suarez is the easy one here. And I don't love any of the others. I don't know that I'd want to risk it. If you're asking me to pick a second and third from Wednesday,
Starting point is 01:03:06 I'm going to say, I'm going to say Brandon Fott at the White Sox just because that lineup is so bad. And maybe Wade Miley against the Cardinals, but I don't love either of those. All right. We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank.
Starting point is 01:03:21 Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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