Fantasy Baseball Today - Rankings Debates! Josh Jung, George Kirby & Many More (1/18 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 18, 2024

How do we go about making rankings and how should you use them (2:40)? ... Why is Scott lower on Josh Jung (14:21)? ... What should we expect from Walker Buehler (21:20)? ... Why is Chris so high on Riley Greene (28:06)? ... What kind of ERA will we get from Aaron Nola (33:50)? ... News (40:05): the Blue Jays are signing Cuban pitcher Yariel Rodriguez. ... Why is Chris lower on both Jackson Chourio and Cole Ragans (47:05)? ... Will George Kirby take that next step (52:50)? ... Is the league catching up to Joe Ryan (58:30)? ... Is there a huge difference between Ryan and Bailey Ober (1:02:40)? To display your continued support of the show, please vote Fantasy Baseball Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Baseball Podcast" Category https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/best-baseball-podcast/ Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question, email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Why is Chris so high on Riley Green? Why is Scott so low on Josh Young? Welcome into Fantasy Baseball today. Frank Scott and Chris here on Thursday, January 18th.

And yesterday I mentioned our 2024 rankings. are live on the site, cbsports.com. Make sure to check them out. We have roto, head to head points, AL only, NL only, mixed rankings, whatever you want. They're all there. So today on the show, we are taking a look at some of the biggest differences in our rankings,

perhaps even debate a little bit. But before we get into the players, let everyone know how the sausage is made a little bit. And Scott, we'll start with you. How do you go about making your rankings? because, as we know, if people have followed all offseason, you're making rankings before any type of ADP is out. So how do you do it?

It's true. I'm very old school about the making of my rankings. I go through every single player. I look at everything that I deem to be valuable when it comes to analyzing players. And then I decide which players. which player I want to draft more than the other player. And then I keep doing that until the rankings are done.

And it's a grind. It's invaluable research, I would say, to help me prepare for the new season. So it's worth the time investment. But I gather not a lot of people make their range. rankings that way. They lean heavily on projections these days and it does make the process faster, I will say, maybe less, maybe tailored less to your own personal taste. And I do think we are seeing within the industry sort of a group think taking hold that maybe has something to do with the way people form their projections. I don't think I'm going to win any with the way people form their rankings.

I should say, I don't think I'm going to win any ranking accuracy contests with the way I do it. But I do think in terms of taking into account my own comfort level with risk reward, I think the only way to do it is to do it this way, where I'm like, okay, good example. What's a good example of a risk reward player this year? Cole Regens. Sure, I was thinking lower in than that, but sure, Cole Regens. I recognize the risks with Reagan's, but I think given my own tolerance for pitching this year

and risk at pitching. And what I think the rewards are for taking a chance on somebody like Cole Reagan's, I'm willing to move them up higher and accept more risk for the sake of that reward because I think rewards are so hard to find within that position. And so that's what informs my ranking. of Cole Reagan's and maybe why it's apart from the consensus. I don't know if that was just a bunch of gobbledygook or if it actually made sense, but that's, uh, yeah, that's part of my process there. They're your ranking, Scott. You can do them however you want to. Chris, same question to you.

Just to get this off the top, I hate ordinal rankings. I know that that's what the people want and it's a big part of what we do and we create content off it. It's not how I think about baseball. It's not how I really think about anything. And I'll give you an example from my rankings where I've got, we're going to talk about at least one of these guys today. I've got Tyler Glass now is SP10, Aaron Nola is SP 11.

Frank, I know you had it as SP 9 in your show notes. So just delete that 9 put in 11. I'm still higher on him than you 2 are. So it'll still work. And Yoshi Yamamoto. 12. And like, part of what screws my brain up is like, I could make a case for Yamamoto ahead of Nola, but behind Glass now, but I could also make a case for Nola ahead of glass. And so like, I get these like weird, like the, the transitive property does not necessarily work all the time for my rankings.

And then so I tend to like, I do the rankings and I put the work in my process to actually answer the question that you asked rather than whatever I was doing is I do base mine off of I start from a from a source of outside sources. So that would be like early ADP projections, you know, sometimes I'll just steal Scott's rankings and throw them in there as a source. And then I start to make the moves individually within there. So I have the baseline and then I add in my flavor. I've got the recipe and the ingredients. And then I add my own individual flavor, I guess would be the analogy that I would go for. But it's to say that like I always struggle with like,

why do you have this guy 17 and that guy 18? And it's like because I had to hit submit. You know, but like a lot of the ordinal rankings I don't feel as strongly about as maybe I should. But a lot of the times when you're talking about players separated by one spot in the rankings or two spots in the rankings, the outcome is so much cloudier than I have this guy seven and that guy eight makes you think. Well, and that's kind of the whole basis behind tiers, right? I mean, in theory, players who belong to the same tier at a position are more or less interchangeable. And you can have some pretty big tiers.

You're going to have tiers that are six, seven players deep even at an infield spot. So I totally get where you're coming from with that. And there are certain points in the rankings that are parsing. And there are other points in the rankings, those drop-offs that define the difference between tiers, where it really does make a difference who you want and who you don't want. And I think that's going to come up a lot in these discussions we have. I do want to also say up top here that rankings are an ongoing process. I mean, I've already made some significant, to where I originally ranked players in October,

I've already made some significant changes. You know, throughout the off season, Cole Reagan's to bring him up again. You probably heard me say I have him 11th at starting pitcher. Well, now he's 16th because I realized I didn't have to draft him at 11th. And drafting him 16th, ranking him 16th will pretty much ensure I draft him in every league based on what his ADP is right now. So I do adjust my rankings not to align with ADP, but to take advantage of ADP so that I'm not advising people to reach that far for

Cole Reagan's if there's no need to. And rankings are a living document, right? Like, obviously that's not totally true. I can't keep updating my preseason rankings until September. That would be kind of unfair. but like up until opening day, I reserve the right to change my opinion on, on players.

And so if you're using our rankings to draft, it's just kind of keep in mind that like, they're not final until you use them to draft or until the season starts. And so, you know, this process today, I'm going to move a bunch of these guys up or down based on the discussions that we have because I'm not,

so convinced that, you know, I'm behind schedule because of football, obviously. I'm not so convinced that the, you know, month or three weeks that I spent working on these represents the perfect ranking. So I'm absolutely open to moving guys, not seismic shifts in the way I view any individual player, but yeah, moving guys within tiers, that'll absolutely happen. Yeah, lots of great points there. I agree completely. We're still kind of fresh in the rankings process

where if we get on here today and you guys make fantastic points about a player I'm higher or lower on, then yeah, there is a chance that I will lower that player. I mean, these things are not set in stone. And I think it would be a disservice to listeners and people who consume the rankings to not make moves, right?

I mean, based on new information that comes out, things that we see in spring training, velocities being up, things that we just learn in the off season. And sometimes you don't find out a player was dealing with an injury or had an off-season surgery until they show up at spring training. Right? So we have to take all of those things into account.

A few other notes I wanted to mention. Chris, you talked about how just a straight rankings list, I think there's a lot of nuance involved too because if you tell someone, look, just draft off this rankings list, go down the sheet, cross names off, and draft off this ranking list. That's not how I draft. It's not going to work well because for multiple reasons. If you play in a roto league, you need to cover different categories, right?

So your highest ranked player might be Pete Alonzo, but if you need speed, you might have to go in a different direction, right? So it doesn't necessarily work out that way. And even if you talk about a head-ed points league, if you're constructing a pitching staff, you might not want a whole pitching staff of guys that have had injuries in the past, you know, Tyler Glassnow, Walker Bueller, Michael King, whatever. You don't want all those guys on one pitching staff. you might want to pick and choose a little bit. All right, maybe I have Tyler Glass now ranked higher, but Logan Webb has a higher floor,

so I want to take him to pair with this other risky pitch I have, stuff like that, right? So there is a lot of nuance involved. It's not just draft straight down the rankings, you know? Another example like that is our rankings are tailored for 12 team leagues. And so because of that, I kind of fade boring players who are going to get a lot of, a playing time in favor of exciting players

who's playing time is much more questionable. But if you're playing in a 15-team league, those boring players that get a lot of reps are kind of essential. And gambling on a player who's maybe exciting, but is playing time is more questionable. It's a much bigger gamble, because if you miss, there's not much of waiverware to speak of.

So, you know, I don't keep, there aren't separate tools for me to adjust for 12 teams versus 15 teams. And even if there was, there's no way I could keep up with that. So you kind of have to approach the rankings, understanding where we're coming from, 12 team mindset. If it's a 10-team league, you might take even bigger risk than I've taken for upside. But if it's a 15-team league, you know, played a little more cautiously and maybe downgrade some of those upside types in favor of secure.

And I think, though, another way to think about it, and I'm sure Frank wants to move on, so we'll just hit this quickly. But think about it in terms of error bars, right? So like, if I have a pitcher Spencer Strider, I've got him as my number 10 overall player, he's my number one starting pitcher. But like, Eric Cole is 13. Though error bars there probably overlap, right? Like, I could make a case for Garrett Cole at 11 and Spencer Strider at 12, and it wouldn't

really require me to change how I view the. those players fundamentally. The further you get in the rankings, the wider those error bars tend to be. You know, so once you start to get to like 33, then it's like, well, that guy could be 25. He could be 40. And it wouldn't really require me to fundamentally alter how I think about that player that much. All right. Well, before we started, I told these guys, hey, let's make it quick. Let's get right into it. Let's talk about as many players as possible. And here we are. It's a good discussion. I think it's a worthy discussion of having and explaining just rankings in general in our process, but let's make it quick, boys. Let's talk about some players. And we will start with Josh Young,

mention his name up at the top. Both Chris and myself have Josh Young as our 11th ranked third baseman. Scott has him down at 16. Sky, we'll start with you. Why are you lower than, not just Chris and I, but lower than the consensus, lower than ADP on Josh Young as well? Well, to be honest, I'm not sure. what the consensus sees that I don't see. Josh Young was a 266 hitter with a 781 OPS last year and

those numbers compare closer to like Brian Hayes and Alec Bohm than they do to a lot of the guys that Josh Young is being drafted around. And furthermore, he managed to have a 266 batting

average in 783 OPS because he was, or 781 OPS, I should say, because he was crazy hot at the beginning of the year. It was very front-loaded. April and May, he hit, I don't have the numbers exactly here. I have it, Scott, 842 OPS in April, 918 in May. Yeah, so I went into June batting 295 with an 872 OPS and the rest of the way Josh Young hit 244 with the 712 OPS. And furthermore, when he was hot at the beginning of the season, I said, hey, I don't see it in the data. I think this guy's going to cool off. And that's exactly what happened. So, I mean, for me, it's a simple matter of this is where Josh Young's numbers say he should be ranked.

And so I'm going to rank him there. And I'm actually interested in hearing your arguments because I don't understand why so many are so enthusiastic for Josh Young. I'll start off and then I'll throw it your way, Chris. I think instead of looking at his season as just two parts, I would look at it as three parts where he was amazing in the first two months. He was kind of okay for the next, I wrote down 57 games. He hit 255 with a 757 OPS.

But then he fractured his thumb. He came back his final 13 games of the season, whatever. He hit under 200, one homer, 515 OPS. But then he got healthier in the postseason, and he hit really well. He hit 308, three homers. He finished strong again. He hits the ball really hard, 91.8 average exit velocity.

That's 87th percentile, nearly a 12 percent barrel rate. Comes with prospect pedigree. He's in one of the best lineups in baseball. So I kind of see it as he's a young player. I think he's going to progress. With the rest of this lineup, the counting stats should be good. I think he could hit 30 plus home runs with 100 plus RBI, and that's not something I would expect from someone like Cabrion Hayes,

who you mentioned where you kind of have him ranked around. Well, it's interesting that you're viewing the data as a point in Josh Young's favor. And yes, the average XIV velocity was high. Max XIVA velocity was 58th percent dial, which is not normally what you see from a true masher. Struck out nearly 30 percent rate. His expected stats are pretty much in line with his actual stats. Now, maybe that injury, thumb injury, you said? Thumb injury, yeah.

Yeah, maybe that brought those numbers down. But like I said, I remember. the data before that and it's not like the data shifted that much in response to the thumb. So I, I'm not convinced Josh Young is better than his numbers. One thing I will say is even if Josh Young isn't better than his numbers, his 162 game pace was 30 homers, 100 runs and 93 RBI with a 266 batting average. Like that's, that's probably a top 100 player, right? What game pace? 162.

162. Okay. Yeah. Now, if you take the time before the thumb injury, which was mid, it was August 6th, was his last game before the injury, he, he was really bad. It was like a 500 OPS after coming back. It was 104 runs, 33 homers, 100 RBI, 274 average. So I think a big part of it is just even if he's just what he did last season, the, the,

expected Wobus 337, the actual Wobah with 334, even if he's just the surface level numbers, that might be 195 runs in RBI in that lineup with 30 homers. That's without assuming that he was better than the data. Now, that's a tricky thing because injuries happen. And did anyone, have we mentioned the gigantic splits? No, we have not. So far, because that's something I was not particularly aware of. And I don't know how much I worry about it,

but he did have a 717 OPS against righties, a 32% strikeout rate, 9.95 OPS against lefties with like a 20% strikeout rate. So that's pretty significant. I worry about that less with right-handed hitters because generally speaking, right-handed batters have lower platoon splits. And there aren't that many players

who are really, really good against lefties and not good against righties. It just doesn't happen that often, although there are certainly some examples of it. I think it's a bet, on a fairly high floor with room to grow. I look at Josh Young and I look at Jake Burger and I say give me Burger. Because the power seems more legitimate.

Burger might hit 40 home runs and Josh Young I'm not confident will hit 30. Josh Young might be a safer bet for batting average, but Jake Berger made some pretty substantial changes after joining. the Marlins that helped greatly reduce the strikeout rate to the point it's better than Josh Young's. I mean, Josh Young's strikeout rate is pretty terrible. So, yes.

Yeah, I mean, I just, I don't know. I guess I feel like everybody's kind of seeing him through rose-colored glasses, Josh Young, and I'm like, eh, there are a lot of weak points here. And one thing that's worth pointing out is he's pretty old for a guy who has only had the one good season because, you know, obviously, like a lot of prospects, 2020 changed his trajectory and then he missed the year with that shoulder injury, I think.

So, you know, he's older than you might think, Josh Young. So I'm not, I'm not moving him, but I get the skepticism. And I really like Jake Berger too. I think the takeaway might be, maybe we're all just too low on Jake Berger. You know, maybe him and Josh Young should just be some of us are closer ranked. Yeah, I really like Jake Berger too. I think one key difference is obviously the lineup context, the Rangers lineup is going to be much better than the Marlins, which could help counting stats. But I'm not sure. That's the biggest point in Young's favor.

I agree. Yeah, I'm not sure that that means they should be going 50 or 60 spots apart like they are right now. Let's move on to a player, Scott. You are higher on than Chris, and that is Walker Bueller. We'll go over to the pitching side. You have Walker Bueller as your SP 24. Chris has him as his SP 37. Walker Bueller 29 years old, now coming back from his second Tommy John surgery.

Scott, what is your view of Walker Bueller for this upcoming season? Well, I mean, it's hard to say exactly what to expect from Walker Bueller. Coming back from a second Tommy John surgery, that's more difficult than the first Tommy John surgery. I could tell you before the top, before this second Tommy John surgery, Walker Bueller was regarded as basically a top 10 starting pitcher in fantasy and had been for several years, basically since he was of age to be. Now, because it is a second Tommy John surgery, and even if he is just who he was before he got hurt, presumably there will be some curtailment of the innings, and we're already hearing talk of the Dodgers with six-man rotation, that might be justification to downgrade Walker Bueller. The main issue for me, why I can't go much lower than where I have him,

is because of the breakdown of the starting pitcher position where I kind of feel like I put Walker Bueller as the dividing line between those who I feel pretty good about delivering an ace outcome and those who I don't. And certainly that's a possibility for Walker Bueller, though it would be closer to 160 innings probably than over 200. Chris, is it just second Tommy John surgery? And I'm not saying that to downplay it

because obviously the success stories are very far and few between when it comes to two Tommy John surgeries. But is there anything else that you're looking at that has you lower on Walker Bueller? Yeah, I think there were some red flags in the profile, specifically in 2022. And the hard thing about that is how much of that was, was he pitching at 90% health? But in 2021, he took a step backward as a strikeout pitcher, 26% strikeout rate. it didn't really impact his production. He actually had the best ERA of his career because he had really, really good results on balls and play.

36 expected Wobon contact was the best of his career outside of 2018, which was a shorter sample size. So really, really good. 2020, 2019 and 2020 and 2020, his results on balls and play were just okay. He's been kind of all over the place. Part of that is just that's a noisy stat. pitchers don't have as much control over the quality of contact they give up as batters, but it's the kind of thing where if he doesn't get back to being a 27, 28, 29% strikeout rate,

can we rely on him to be that really, really good results on balls and play guy? Is the Dodgers defense as good as it once was? I think it's probably fair to say it's probably not. He's also pitching pitching with shift restrictions for the first time too. so. And I don't want to make any claims unfairly, but the strikeout rate reduction did coincide with the sticky stuff ban. And he was someone who there were some noticeable spin changes in his profile in 2020 and 2019. And so that's also a part of it. So I just, I think there's enough. concern about whether he's an impact pitcher, even beyond, you know, the fact that he's coming back

from the injury and the limitations. I moved him up a couple spots from when you started talking. He's the SP 35, not SP 37. I don't know if I even want to move him above like Dylan Cesar, or Sunny Gray, though, who I think have similar risk reward profiles to Bueller. Gray? I mean, I know he just finished second in AO. Yeah, he's really good. You know, he's 140- inning pitcher who doesn't even, who might give you a strikeout per inning. I just don't, I don't see the reward in Sunny Gray relative to Walker Bueller,

who, like I said, has top 10 upside. Like, I'm looking, I said I saw Walker Bueller as kind of the dividing line between those I felt good about giving me an ace outcome and those I didn't. Right behind Walker Bueller, I have Jesus Lazzardo, Zach Eflin, Logan, Gilbert, none of whom I really foresee an ace outcome. You could argue Eflin delivered one last year, but I think it was more relative to the lack of standouts at starting pitcher that helped push Eflin up the rankings rather than just Eflin on his own, pitched like an ace.

And I'm kind of skeptical Eflin can even repeat what he did last year exactly. So I'm just not as excited about that group of names below Walker Buehler in my rankings, and that's why he comes in where he does. All right, let's take our first break. When we return, Chris has some explaining to do. Riley Green, his 23rd outfielder in the rankings, we'll discuss right after this. Welcome back in. Let's continue on with some of the biggest differences in our early rankings. And Chris, you have Riley Green as your 23rd outfielder. Scott has him down as his 48th outfielder. Riley Green took some big steps forward last year. There's no doubt about it. He hit 288, 11 homers, 7 steel, 11. in 99 games, made some noticeable changes, hit the ball very hard,

but he has had trouble staying healthy. Last year went on the IEL in late May with a stress fracture in his left fibula, and then he went on the IEL in September with right elbow inflammation. Turns out he needed Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm. Chris, the case four,

your optimistic view of Riley Green, 23rd outfielder. Yeah, he's expected to be ready for opening day. So I'm hoping that the Tommy John surgery in the non-throwing arm isn't that big of a concern. Obviously, that's sort of an unknown, but there have been examples of guys bouncing back very, very quickly as hitters in that regard.

And mostly, I just think he's a really, really good hitter. And it's worth noting the injuries that he suffered, one, 2022, remember, he fractured a toe or a foot like the last day before the season started or something. And he fouled a ball off his foot. That's bad luck. I don't know how much the stretch. reaction in his fibula, if that's going to be an ongoing concern. Not a lot of like, I can't think of a lot of guys who have had that and not had it be a

concern. So I don't know. The biggest thing for me, though, I really just think he's a really, really good hitter. And obviously, his rookie season was a little up and down. Last season, I thought he was very good. And the underlying data suggests that he should have been even better. He had a 344 Wobah, 365 expected Wobah. You look at his stat cast page, 89th percentile X-Woba, 92nd XBA, 88th X-slug.

The changes to the Tigers home stadium have made it a little more hitter-friendly, which I think helps. And really the only concern I have with him as a hitter is he swings and misses a bit too much. You know, there's a bit too much strikeout rate there. But because he hits a lot of line drives and a decent amount of ground balls and hits the ball really hard, I don't think it's that big of a concern. I think he's a legitimately very good source of batting average moving forward, who will probably also hit for good power. And so there's some projecting here,

but to a certain degree, I just don't like outfield. And so it's an opportunity to plan a flag on a guy that I think is really good. All right, Scott. You're lower. You have Riley Green down at outfielder 88. 88, 48. Excuse me.

I think I like combined our rankings together. I have them at 43, whatever. Yeah, 48 is where I have Riley Green. No, I think your last point there, Chris, is the one I agree with the most, is just that about 25th in the outfield rankings is where things really take a drastic turn. And so just kind of picking your favorite

from a bunch of less than surefire options. I think there's, I think there's validity to that. My biggest issue with Riley Green is that other than batting average, I don't really see the upside. I'd give him a chance of being a better power hitter if he didn't play in one of the most power suppressing parks in the majors in Detroit.

That has ruined many a hitter who looked like he had a lot of talent. And he gives real left-handed Nick Castiano's vibes as a hit. Right. Nick Castellanos being like the, of course, the poster child for being ruined by Detroit. I will also say that I'm overwhelmed by Riley Green's running. Yes. Not that he couldn't steal bases, but I expected him to run a lot more in the majors than he has so far. And we're entering an era where that's even more important in terms of keeping up with the competition in the outfield.

So I'm seeing Riley Green as closer to Alex Verdugo in terms of upside than not. I do think he has more than Verdugo. I do think he'll be a more consistent source of batting average, though even that's a little bit questionable because how much he strikes out. Let's see. I have him three spots ahead of Alex Verdugo and my rankings, my outfield rankings. And so I just, I ranked probably a couple dozen hitters ahead of him, who I feel like.

are going to stand out in clearer ways than he will. And even if you want to talk like a points lake scenario, green strikeouts hold of one there. So it's hard to move him past category standouts in that format where categories don't matter so much. I guess my biggest objection to where you have Riley Green rank, that, okay, it's ahead of Sedukey, it's ahead of Spencer Steer, it's ahead of, is it ahead of George?

It's just ahead of all three of those guys, yes. Suzuki Steer and Springer. Yeah. I could move him below those three and it wouldn't really bother me much. Evan Carter, you feel about you're happy with Riley Green over Evan Carter? I think so, yeah. Okay. All right.

And I like Riley Green the player too. I'm kind of, I guess, hedging a little bit right now. I have him 43rd in the outfield rankings. If he shows up to spring training, all is good. And he looks like Riley Green and, you know, he's fine. He's ready to go by opening day. I'm probably going to move him up, but just a little bit of uncertainty right now,

and I kind of just want to see him out there on the field. That's totally fair. Yeah, and just see him healthy first. Let's move on to Aaron Nola. Chris, you have him as your SP11. Scott and I both have Aranola down at SP19. These are in the rhodo rankings. Scott has Nola higher and head-to-head points leagues

because he's a workhorse. He goes deep. He gives you the innings, obviously. But Chris, your case for, Aranola, SP-11. He does everything well, and then his ERA is just a random number generator. And we know that ERA fluctuates wildly. And to be fair, his whip also fluctuates quite a bit,

although even then the bad years for his whip at this point, it's 1.15 is the worst of his last four seasons. So I think we can safely say, whatever else Aeronola might do poorly, he's going to get a lot of innings, he's going to get a lot of strikeouts. He's going to have a pretty good whip. He's going to win some games.

It's just a question of, do we get the mid-fours ERA or the low three's ERA? Because that seems to be the fluctuation. And it's kind of an even year, odd year thing, which, to be clear, I do not think Aaron Nola wakes up in 2024. And he's like, it's time to pitch well. I didn't mean to hit my microphone. That wasn't me quoting Aaronola. That was Chris saying that.

I just think we in a landscape at pitcher where we know so little about so many pitchers, Aaron Nola is a sure thing for everything except ERA. And he's probably going to give us a good ERA. I whispered because I don't want like, I don't want anyone to yell at me when he has like a five ERA on May 7th. I've never got to yell at you, Chris. Come on. Well, yeah.

You can't stop the yelling. Did he leave us? He must have hit a button or, I don't know, X-Dout. You know, Chris. I'm sure he'll be- Itchy fingers. I know. I don't want to give him control of this because then he's going to shut down the stream.

But here you go. He's back. You can't give me control of the screen. He's back. All right. Scott, I mean, I'm in the same, you know, kind of area as you in terms of ranking him. Aaronnola was actually in my bus 1.0. I hear what you're saying, Chris, about the ERA being a random number generator,

but the fact remains he's had a 4.46 ERA or higher two of the past three years. The past three seasons, cumulative ERA is 4.09. So, pretty bad. While he's a workhorse, if he does that over 200 innings, he's actually hurting your ERAs. That's, yeah, that's pretty much the gist of my argument too. And I'm torn on this one because I'm an Aaron Nola backer from way back. I drink a cola for Aaron Nola.

That was the thing. Once upon a time on this podcast, before your time, Frank, before your time, Chris, too, even. And, you know, as I've said many times, I'm all in on just getting as many strikeouts as I can at starting pitcher for as long as I can. And Aaron Nola is great at getting those. I mean, he had two and two last year, 235 the year before 223. You know, he's going to give you a good strikeout total. But that workload he takes on, if things do go sour in two of the last three years, they've gone very sour with ERA, as you've pointed out, Frank.

That makes the impact of that even worse in a categories league, which is what we're talking about here. Now, I don't care about it at all in a points league, which is why I have Aeronola so much higher there. I can live with an unsavory ERA overall when the good starts are still like seven innings, 11 strikeouts, as they tend to be for Aranola. He still delivers, you look at his game log, it's still full of the kind of starts that are only accessible to true aces and then just some really ugly ones

that skew the ERA. But in a roto league, you carry those bad starts around with you forever. And that's why I'd still consider Aranola a net benefit to my pitching staff. I don't think ranking him 19th is anything to shake a stick at. But, you know, that's why I have Max Fried, George Kirby, you know, they're more like ERA standouts than Aaron Nola is, even though they don't give you the strikeout numbers he does. That's why I'm taking, you know, Kodi Senga, Freddie Peralta, they're going to give you the strikeout numbers, but I'm less concerned about them completely destroying your ERA, as could happen with Nola.

That's basically where I stand with him. Honestly, I'm kind of surprised. I thought people were going to be so frustrated with Aranola at this point that they were going to fade him. And I'm surprised the consensus is closer to Chris on this, where they're pretty much keeping the faith on Aranola, as if two of the last three years didn't even happen. Yeah, the ADP still being drafted as a top 12 starting pitcher. That's Aranola. I don't have a great reason for why this happens to him, but what I could come up with is he doesn't throw as hard as other quote unquote aces, right? He throws 92.7 miles per hour with his fastball. I think that creates a slimmer margin for error for him.

And when things go bad, they just go really bad, right? It snowballs. There are games where he allows hard contact, home runs. It's a tough home park to pitch in. And he struggled to pitch with runners on base. You look at his left on base percentage in his career. It's not great. It's been below 70% two of the past three years.

So things just kind of snowball on him. And I don't know. He could come out and you're right. Chris, have like a sub three ERA. It wouldn't surprise me. But to a certain extent, that snowball effect, I think, applies to all of starting pitcher. Now, you know, with more base runners last year and more activity on the bases, we saw a lot more of these ugly stat lines, even for really good pitchers. And that's partly why I'm selling out so hard for strikeouts, because I feel like that's the only thing I could trust pitchers to deliver on over the course of the season.

But the fact that it's happened for Aaron Nola, two of the last three years, it was. wasn't just a product of 2023. That makes me a little more cautious with him. All right. Let's quickly hit some news and notes. Not much going on. Nothing too crazy here, but some quick things. The Rangers announced that Wyatt Langford, who we spoke about the other day,

received an invitation to Major League Spring Training, so he'll be there and hopefully given a fair shot to be on their opening day roster. Red Sox prospect, Marcel Omer, is expected to be a full go by spring training after dealing with a left shoulder injury last year. not expected to be fighting for an opening day roster spot. Maybe we see him later on in the season, but he had a down 2023, maybe related to that shoulder injury.

I think very much related to it. I think it's a great time to buy on Marcelo Meyer and Dynasty leagues because I've seen him pushed way down some top 100 lists. All right. And then Dustin May began a throwing program on Wednesday. He underwent flexor tendon surgery and UCL revision last July, and will be sidelined until the second half of the season. Last note here, the Blue Jays have signed Cuban right-hander

Yariel Rodriguez to a four-year $32 million contract and will apparently be given an opportunity to start. Rodriguez is 26 years old, and he began his career as a starter in Cuba. Then he moved over to Japan, where he mostly pitched as a reliever. In 2022, I'll point out, a 115 ERA, 0.92 whip, over a strikeout per inning in Japan, did not pitch last year. Pitched into WBC, but then apparently

defected and just got out of his contract in Japan, and he's been trying to make it as a starting pitcher now in the majors. Chris, we do have some WBC data, some stat cats data from Yari-L Rodriguez from last year, you know, throws 95 miles per hour with the fastball, slider, big spin rate, 2940, RPM. So that looks pretty impressive. But I don't know, your initial thoughts, if you have any on Yariol Rodriguez, it's a decent contract, right? Four years, 32 million. It's not nothing. Yeah, it reminds me a little bit of Ryssel Iglesias when he came over. Remember, it wasn't clear if he was going to be a starter or reliever when he first came over. Similarly, got a decent size contract at the time. Rodriguez, there are concerns about, one, the quality of the fastball. He throws around mid-90s, can get it up to, you

know, 98, 99, but, you know, Sarah's a stuff plus model when it was trained on the World Baseball Classic last year, had it as a 75, which is extremely low. It's tuned to where 100 is average. It's like a, it's more like a cutting fastball than like a rising fastball, which is what we're looking for in the modern era. Results weren't bad on it. You know, he had five swings and misses and his start against the Netherlands. They don't have, you know, a full. lineup of major league caliber players, but it's, I think the questions are, one, can he hold up to a full-time starter workload? Are the Blue Jay is going to give him that opportunity? And does he have the repertoire? You know, it was fastball slider almost entirely in the world baseball classic,

the change up he threw, you know, a handful of times. Can that be a viable third pitch? Can he succeed with just two pitches? We're starting to see some more guys do that, like Justin Steele. he's a bad control guy too Yario Rodriguez so he may get a chance to start and if Alec Munoa is still terrible they'll have to find somebody to fill that fifth spot I don't think he's going to be a starter in the long run

Yario Rodriguez I just I think he's better suited for the bullpen and that's where we saw him pitching in Japan yeah well my next question was what does this mean for Alec Manoa but Scott it sounds like you think he will be given the opportunity to be the fifth start And then if it doesn't work out, maybe they can.

I think it just depends. Like if he looks like he did last year, it doesn't matter, right? Yeah. So, and we should learn that in spring training, obviously, right? That'll be a very telling for Alec Minoa. Somebody who could turn out to be a big riser. I think his ADP is outside the top 250 right now.

He's, he's been left for dead. But if he shows up and looks like 2022, Alec Manoa in spring training, then I'm sure his ADP will rise quite a bit. Let's take our final break. And when we return, about, I don't know, like the 10 players we have left. We'll do that right after this.

All right, welcome back in. Let's get back into some of the biggest rankings differences that we have. I think two that we can run through pretty quickly. We talked about both of these names a lot recently. And just a quick note on Jackson Chorio, because Scott has him at SP21. Chris, you have him down at outfield 37. So why are you so much lower? I'll just say, I'm very squishy on this one.

And this is one that if it starts to look like he's going to make the opening day roster, I'll probably move him up. Even saying that, though, I get the feeling I'm probably not going to draft much Jackson Churio just because I feel like the hype is going to get kind of out of control. And it's just, it's asking a lot for a 20 year old. He's not turning 20 until about a month before, actually about nine days before the season officially begins. I guess if we're counting the, I think March 11th is birthday. It's just asking a lot for that to be an impact player, especially for a guy who at the high level of the miners has been productive in a way that should work for fantasy because he's going to steal bases.

But his overall OPS at AAA is below 800. Last year it was like 803. I have some concerns that he's going to be the immediate impact bat that we're hoping he will be. And maybe he steals enough bases that it just doesn't matter. just hits 260 with 18 homers and steals 40 bases. But this feels like the most volatile of the rookie class this year. All right. Let's get some quick thoughts here on

Cole Regens as well. Scott has talked a lot about Cole Reagan's this all of season. We had a podcast last week. What you missed down the stretch where Scott laid out everything that Cole Reagan's did and why he's so excited about him. But there are some pretty big differences here. Scott, you have Reagan's at SP16. Chris, you have him at SP24. I guess in the grand scheme, that's not a massive difference, but what worries you about Regans?

I just want to point out for Jackson Chorio real quick, that once they came back in the second half without the tacky ball, they stopped, they were using the tacky ball in the first half in the Southern League. Once they did away with that, Jackson Chorio hit 324 with a 917 OPS the rest of the season. Pretty good. Yeah, I'm not worried about like, you know, the fact he's so young, maybe he won't be able to blow up right away.

But I think he's like really, really. He's going to be an amazing hitter. And I'm kind of ranking him and White Lank for both as if they already have the job. I'll adjust down if that doesn't happen. I think everybody else is kind of planning on adjusting up if it does happen. Chris, you're reasoning on, well, unless you want to talk about Cole Reagan, Scott. But yeah, I've talked about him a lot. Well, I do just want to say because I, you know, most of the time we talked about him,

I have 11th in the starting pitcher rankings, and now I have him down to 16th. I kind of explained it at the top of the show. I moved him down the rankings because I realized that I moved him basically to the bottom of his tier, so that I give myself a chance to draft more pitchers from that tier as opposed to reaching further than is necessary for Cole Reagan's and capping my own pitching. upside as a result because I miss out on the other pitchers that I could have taken at that point where I was taking Reagan's. So he is now behind Freddie Peralta and Kodi Senga to pitchers that I'm elevating for their strikeout potential, just like Cole Regens, but that I have more

competition for their services in that range. I'm still, at 16th, I still plan on getting a ton of Reagan's, but I'm not costing myself as many other opportunities at the position now. All right, Chris, why so low on Cole Reagan's? It's workload and lack of track record. We haven't seen him. One, he's thrown, I think, 134, 100. Yeah, 134 innings is his career high. He's done that each of the last two seasons.

Now, hopefully that means he can get to 175 this year. You know, that's not unreasonable, but it requires a guy who's had Tommy John surgery twice to maintain the velocity he had last year and pitch deep into a season in a way that he hasn't done. So that's the biggest thing. I have a little bit of concern about the walk rate. You know, that was an issue for him as a minor leaguer as well as, you know, at parts of last season. But for the most part, it's just a lot of questions about workload. You know, I asked a question, why are you so low on Cole Reagan's? All three of us, you know, Scott has met 16, Chris at 24. I have met SP 28. We're all ahead of 80p still on Cole Regens, right? He's going around SP 30. You know, I share some of the same concerns as you, Chris. I worry a little bit about the control too. Like if there's one, you know, clear flaw in his game control, we saw that down the stretch too. But I'm not going to argue that there is huge swing and missability and big upside here. Well, and I want to clarify, too, like, I share those concerns as well.

It's just part of the reason why I'm going to seem so far off from consensus at starting pitcher now is because of the globbing effect there. I don't think it's as worth sweating the downside risks for extreme upside pitchers because there are so few extreme upside pitchers who can really distinguish themselves at the position in a globy. environment for pitching where everybody kind of runs together. All right. Well, let's get into a player that I actually have ranked higher than you guys. And we were talking about him a little bit offline the other day. George Kirby, I have him in SP 9. Chris has him at SP 15. Scott has him down at SP 18.

And part of the reason why I really like Kirby are the ratios, right? 335 ERA, 104 Whip. He had the third best contribution in WIP last year in ROTO. leagues. Obviously, it's a really low whip, and he did it over 190 and two-thirds innings. I will fully admit there is projection involved with this, hoping that he does take another step in terms of strikeouts. We did see that in the second half. His strikeout rate went from 20.8% to 25% in the second half, and it came in conjunction with a pitch makes change where he started throwing his splitter more. He threw it around 11, 12% of the time

in the second half. And it's been a very good pitch for him. Last year, 143 batting average against 16.9% swinging strike rate. So love the ratios. Kind of feels like George Kirby is approaching that workhorse territory now. And my projection in, you know, I guess his progression in his career is I think he pushes to about a strikeout printing, maybe even over a strikeout branding. So that would be the case for the optimistic view of George Kirby.

Chris, I'll throw it to you first here. Why a little bit lower? on Kirby. So one thing, I posted on Twitter just asking why George Kirby, he's going about eight spots ahead of Logan Webb in ADP, I think, something like that. This is the best argument that you can make because I think Logan Webb is also just going way too late. I agree with you completely, but continue.

And part of the case was, well, George Kirby has more upside. And then you start to ask, why does George Kirby have some upside? And I think the arguments start to fall apart. I think a lot of it is just Logan Webb's been around a little longer. And so he just, it's harder to project and dream on guys that we've seen more. And then there's also the splitter. A lot of people will cite the splitter, the increased splitter usage, the swing and miss rate increase that he saw on his overall,

uh, his swinging strike rate overall, I think jumped to like it was still not great, but it was like 12% over the final month or so, just better than where he had been and better than Logan Webb. I'll point out that Logan Webb in 2021 had like a 12% swing and miss rate and like a 25% strikeout rate. We've kind of just like memory hold the Logan Webb upside argument from that year.

The thing with George Kirby getting more strikeouts in the second half, however, he said 25% strikeout rate after the All-Star break, right? Yep. It's kind of fake. he had his first start back from the Allster break, only four strikeouts on 23 batters face, not great. After that, 10, 9, and 7 on 25, 20, and 21 batters faced respectively. That's a really, really good strikeout rate.

I don't know exactly what it is, but it's very, very good. After that, from August 1st on, he had a 22% strikeout rate, which is basically average slightly up from where he was in the first half, but close enough that it's not, I don't think it's as clear of a ascension as it looks. And look, it's always better to use a bigger sample size than a smaller sample size. So if you want to say that the 14 starts after the All Star Break are more indicative of the 10 starts from August 1st on, you're not going to get an argument for me.

The argument would be, why don't you just do it from April 1st then or whatever. I don't know if he pitched before April 1st. No, from April 1st on. So that would be the case. I just think ranking him as a top 10 starting pitcher is baking in too much progression from a guy who has really only shown flashes of having that second pitch. His fastball is really, really good. And I think it gives him a very high floor. I'm not, I'm not ready to buy a strikeout rate jump.

And his XERA was like 390. His peripherals are good, not great. And so I just, I think there's more downside in terms of ERA and WIP. I think he's being viewed as just an elite guy in ERA and WIP, and he might just be good in both. Scottie? Yeah, I don't think George Kirby is a big source of strikeouts. And to invest that heavily in starting pitching,

I need to get strikeouts. I do think he should deliver. a good ERA and especially whip, but I don't think you can really trust any pitcher to reliably do that in this environment. So I'd rather not put my investment in that. And so that's why I've, I know, I still have an 18th overall, but that's why I'm fading Kirby relative to the consensus. If you're playing in a deeper league, he does feel like he has such a safe floor. I think in a points league, he's a great pitcher too. I mean, 20 quality starts last year. He does go deep pretty consistently. He threw six plus innings in 23 of 31 starts. So that's something that

George Kirby does have going for him. And even in a Rotel league, I think you can supplement him with other pitchers that get strikeouts, like a Kodi Sena, a Blake Snell, Cole Reagan's a little bit later on as well. So there are ways to make it happen, but Chris, the Logan Webb thing, I completely agree with that.

I probably should just have them back to back in my rankings, either move Webb up or move Kirby down a little bit. Because, yeah, they should not be going 25 picks apart right now. That does not make too much sense to me. Let's stick with the pitchers, and I wanted to talk about Joe Ryan, who Chris has as his SP 23. Scott has at SP 39.

I have at SP 38. So Scott and I are a little bit lower here on Joe Ryan. And I'll let you get the first word, Scott. Why so much lower? Because even ADP, like Joe Ryan's being drafted as a borderline top 20 starting pitcher right now, which frankly really surprises me. What do you think about Joe Ryan?

I am playing a hunch here, and it's a hunch that's backed up by a tweet I saw from Enosaris in October, where he pointed out there was some evidence to suggest that the rising fastball wasn't working as well as it used to. The hitters were catching up to it. And that's Joe Ryan's whole thing. He doesn't throw very hard. His fastball just has a shape that's optimal for missing bats. And, you know, you look at how he finished the season.

he went into the All-Star break with a... I'm sorry, he went into... On June 22nd, he had a 290-8 ERA. That ERA finished at 451. Now, he did have a horrible stretch there early in the second half where he was pitching through a groin injury, but even after he returned from that,

supposedly it affected his delivery. Even after he returned from that, Joe Ryan had a 479 ERA in seven starts. So it didn't really get much better. And I just kind of wonder if the jig is up here with him, in which case he might be a totally waste of pick. Now, if it's not, and it was all, his delivery was messed up because of that groin injury,

he seems like exactly the kind of pitcher I'd won this environment. You could trust Joe Ryan for strikeouts in that case. But given the way things played out for him at the end of the season, even after returning from that injury, and that little observations from Minosaris that stuck in my mind, I am worried that the gimmick the gimmick's not going to work so much for Joe Ryan anymore he's going to be on my busts 1.0 for this year.

Yeah, Scott, he was on my bus 1.0 we will share that with Joe Ryan. The strikeouts are there, there's no doubt, among starting pitchers with 160 innings last year, Joe Ryan's K-minus walk rate second best to only Spencer Shrider. His swinging strike rate was seventh best, but this is someone who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, nearly 50% fly ball rate

allows a lot of hard contact, 23rd percentile in average exit velocity against. As a result, 1.78 home runs per 9, the fourth highest in baseball. So I have my concerns. Chris, why so much higher on Joe Ryan? I think those are reasonable concerns. When I look at the profile,

I think the biggest red flag is something, it's kind of, who are we, Josh Young is who we talking about earlier. It's kind of the pitching version of Josh Young where I guess it's the opposite, Joe Ryan, is a right-handed pitcher who gave up an 829 OPS to right-handed batters last season. That's really, really bad. You look at the pitch profile and you kind of figure it might be the opposite, right?

He's so fastball heavy. His only breaking ball is kind of a sweeper. He throws a slider as well, but very rarely. It's the kind of profile that you would think, like, oh, this guy might have bad platoon splits. It's just not the way that I expected. And so I'm hoping that, one, the struggles in the second half were about the groin injury as much as anything. And also that, you know, the refinement of the sweeper making that more of a focal point against Ritees can help him overcome his struggles against Ritees in a way that I think the ERA might always be a little inflated. But there, I don't really have a ton of workload concerns.

he's thrown 140 innings, I think, two consecutive years now. And I just think it's kind of an Aeronola thing where even if the ERA is a little inflated, obviously it needs to be better than it ended up being last year. But if it's high threes, he's going to be so good at everything else that I think he's still going to be worthwhile. Let's wrap up with this player because I think they're kind of similar. But one is going, let's see, nearly 70, no, more than 70 picks later than the other. Bailey Ober. I don't see a huge difference between Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan's ADP 94.7, Bailey Ober 166.8. And in 57 career starts, Ober has a 363 ERA 111 whip,

just over a strikeout per inning, great control, 13% swinging strike rate. All Bailey Ober has done is perform. So I have them back to back in my rankings. I have Joe Ryan at SP 38. I have Bailey Ober at SP 39. Scott, you come in much lower on Bailey Ober. SP 59. Why so much lower on Bailey Ober? Strikeouts? That's usually the answer if I'm lower on a pitcher than the consensus. Over a strikeout per inning though. Okay. You're saying you don't see the difference between that and Joe Ryan's 11k per 9. It is a different category. A strikeout per inning is not a strikeout pitcher. But ERA, 363 for Bailey Ober's career versus Joe Ryan's 405? I mean, it's right, but I don't really trust ERA.

And, you know, Bailey Ober is not George Kirby. He throws a lot of strikes like Kirby, but like he doesn't have that track record of keeping those ratios down. But ultimately, yeah, that's just not a stat I trust in this environment. And I would, so what forces Ober down in my rankings, are pitchers like Emmett Sheehan and Nicolodolo and Lucas Gialito, Kyle Harrison even. Pitchers who I perceive as having much more strikeout upside, they might not be as reliable.

I mean, they're certainly not, we're certainly not as confident in what they could do going into this new season. But particularly in the context of a 12-team league, which is what my rankings are geared for, remember, I want to give you. myself as many chances that I can as pitchers who can transcend the glob. And I think targeting strikeout pitchers is the way to do that. Bailey Ober, I think, is going to remain firmly in the glob, though, you know, he's obviously

more interesting than some pitchers in the glob. Chris, you're a little bit closer to me. You have him SP 44. Is Bailey Ober or someone you are actively targeting? Do you like that ranking on him? you know, are you aggressive, you plan to be aggressive on him? What do you think on Billy Ober?

I struggle with this, like, and not Kirby, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan are all going in very different ranges of the draft, as you mentioned. But I struggle with the extreme control artist archetype, you know,

the 5% or lower in Kirby's case. I think he was like a 2.5% walk rate or something wild last year, where I think, think you can go too far in not giving up walks or in not being willing to pitch with a purpose and throw out of the strike zone and get guys to chase in a way that I think leads all of these guys to get into some trouble and get into situations where they they might pitch worse than their peripherals might indicate. In Ober's case, I think he's, I think it's a fine price,

you know, top 45-ish pitcher. If he gets to that range and I'm looking for ideally an SP5, I think I really like him in that range. It's just if I'm looking for an SP3, I'm probably chasing more upside. So it kind of depends on the way my draft goes. But, you know, when you look at the metrics for him,

one thing that really stands out, his slider was a really, really good swing and miss pitch in 2022. It was just okay last year. And so that's one thing. where if you're looking for a way for Bailey over to take a big step forward, getting back to an, you know, he was a 37% whiff rate with his slider in 2022. It was down to 33% in 2023. It's not a huge gap, but that's one place where you're looking,

if you're looking for a way for him to take a step forward, I think getting more whiffs out of that pitch could do it. We got to get to some of these players in a later show. We didn't get to a lot of the players I was most excited to talk about. Mitch Keller, Mitch Garver. Pretty much all the players that you were higher on, I'm realizing we didn't get to, right?

Yeah, right. That's why I was excited to talk about him. Let's do a version 2.0 next week. We might be able to. We have tears. Scott's Tears articles are coming out. So we kind of have to. People can,

people can find those on the website. No, that's fine. We may be able to shoehorn these in somewhere, right? It doesn't have to be a whole show dedicated to them. Don't worry.

We'll find somewhere. I'll write them down. I'll get the ones that you want, and we will do it on a future podcast. We're going to wrap there. For Scott and Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in

to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star writing on Apple or Spotify and we'll be back again next week. Bye-bye.