Fantasy Baseball Today - Rankings Debates! Tout Wars Draft Recap (3/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 11, 2021

So did Scott realize that saves were a category in his Tout Wars draft on Tuesday night (2:25)? How to account for OBP in your categories drafts. ... Our email of the day asks about the new baseball (...14:36). How should we be accounting that for that this season? ... Let's hit some news and notes, starting with Carlos Carrasco who is now dealing with elbow discomfort (18:57). Forrest Whitley is headed for Tommy John surgery while Sixto Sanchez is delayed. ... IF YOU WANT TO HEAR CHRIS TOWERS SINGING LIKE LADY GAGA, HERE IS WHERE YOU DO SO (30:21). ... We have rankings debates (35:27). The players we focus on include Brandon Woodruff, Pablo Lopez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Charlie Morton, and Gary Sanchez. We wrap up with a Trent Grisham conversation (55:15). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. I drive, center field, and swing. This is magnificent. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
Starting point is 00:00:24 We have rankings, debates. Plus, did Scott White know that saves were a category in its Tout Wars draft last night? Find out next on Fantasy. baseball today. Welcome in Frank Stanfield, joined as always by Chris Towers and Scotty dubbed. I've been doing too many fantasy baseball today in fives, so I just kind of like merge those intros right now. I just realized I did a cold open, but no worries. We're here. And we have a lot to talk about, including another Carlos Carrasco update, everything else I mentioned thus far. And a recording of Chris singing like Lady Gaga, which was just phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:00:56 If you follow Chris on Twitter, you've probably already seen it, but it was so great. Chris, do they call that a... Not that much. much like Lady Gaga, though quite a bit like Bradley Cooper. I can do the Bradley Cooper voice for sure. Yeah. The Lady Gaga voice, a little more difficult, a little bit out of my range. Chris, is that what they call a falsetto?
Starting point is 00:01:17 Is that what you were doing there? That was definitely, it was definitely a falsetto. Yeah. You can tell, I don't know much about my musical terminology, but looking forward to that a little bit later on. It's going to be a lot of fun. Scott, what's going on, man? True story, Scott had to call me last night to talk about his Tau Wars team, which I appreciate.
Starting point is 00:01:36 That means, you know, I've become a shoulder to lean on for Scotty. Wow. I had to decompress. I had to decompress. I'm glad you got the, I'm glad you got the, the outlet you were looking for, Scott. No, it's fine. It's fine. He texted me.
Starting point is 00:01:51 So I took it as an open invitation. I, that's fine. I chat him up for 15 minutes about my team. I hate talking. I don't even like having friends. So that's good. If you're wondering what we're talking about, Scott had his Tout Wars draft last night,
Starting point is 00:02:06 which is an industry analyst league, expert league, 15 team 5x5 Roto. There are a bunch of different Tout Wars League. So if you hear more than one, Chris is in one that had a wacky type of scoring format in Roto. And this was another one that Scott is in, and he is the defending champion,
Starting point is 00:02:26 5x5 Roto with OBP instead of batting average, 15 teams as I mentioned. and Scott had the eighth pick. Before we actually get into your takeaways from the draft, someone emailed in earlier, Scott, and asked, why did you choose the eighth pick instead of the first overall pick? So let's start there.
Starting point is 00:02:42 Well, Frank, I don't know why. Okay, so I had the first choice of what pick to take and I chose to pick eighth. I got the first choice because I am the defending champion. And my philosophy on that is usually like, if you value a bunch of players more or less the same, then take the pick at the end of that run of player. So I don't know why you would pick first.
Starting point is 00:03:07 I also don't love picking on the end in general because it requires you to forecast so far ahead that you end up reaching a lot of times. You end up missing out on important runs because it's just so long in between those back-to-back picks you make. So I generally prefer to pick in the middle, but mostly it was about how much, who I thought, who I thought I'd get in the first round
Starting point is 00:03:30 and who I thought I'd get in the second round. And I don't know. It's interesting that they asked it that way because after I picked eighth, like the next few people who got to pick, they basically just picked that order, first, second, third, four. Like,
Starting point is 00:03:46 um, so I was confused why they did that. But ultimately, I'm not happy with how picking eighth worked because things did not go. Things did not play out. like I planned for them too. I would say at least the first two rounds played out the way that you would want a draft to work out.
Starting point is 00:04:06 No, no, it really didn't. It really didn't. Let me tell you. Why? I picked eight thinking, okay, I want one of the big three pitchers. Shane Bieber's obviously my first choice,
Starting point is 00:04:18 but, you know, most people he'd be the third of those three. Fine. If for some reason all three of them went in the first eight picks, that's fine too. I'd get Mike Trout, right? That's obviously not a bad way to start the draft.
Starting point is 00:04:28 and then the second round, I'd still get another ace, like you Darvish or Trevor Bauer, that would have been fine with me too. Gets to the eighth pick and nobody's picked a pitcher yet. So I'm still taking Shane Bieber because he's my top-ranked pitcher, right? But like, it meant I took Shane Bieber earlier than he was supposed to go relative to this other two pitchers.
Starting point is 00:04:49 So it was just inefficient in how that played out. And I do appreciate that you stuck by your rankings there because when it got to your pick, I was like, oh man, Jacob de Grom, no-brainer. And then I was like, but wait, Scott has Bieber ranked as his number one pitcher. So is he actually going to do it? And you did. So I appreciate that you, you know, the advice that you give people is what you use yourself.
Starting point is 00:05:10 So Scott had the eighth overall pick and he wound up taking Shane Bieber in the first round there. I will say just in terms of industry leagues, what you'll see a lot of the times in these fantasy baseball drafts is it's a lot like in fantasy football where in industry or expert leagues where quarterbacks just fall way for. further than you're used to seeing them. And it's kind of the same thing with starting pitching, at least early on in this draft. So, Scott, I'll just kind of hand it over to you, and you can say as much as you want. I've got some questions, but basically, you started with two pitchers, and then your draft started in the third round. Yeah, so a couple things through me in this draft. One, by virtue of being able to pick where I picked, it forced me to game plan a little more than I probably would going into most drafts where, you know, I'm assigned to pick a certain place
Starting point is 00:06:03 and whoever's available there is who I'll take, you know? But this, because I got to choose where to pick, I was thinking ahead to second round, third round, but what might that look like if I picked here versus here? And like I said, it didn't go that way. Beginning with that very first pick, you know, it looks like I reached for Shane Bieber because those two other starting pitchers that everybody would take ahead of Bieber, we're still there. Second round pick was fine, taking Nola. Okay, I figured I'd take a starting pitcher in the second round either way, whether I got Bieber in the first round or got Trout in the first round.
Starting point is 00:06:41 But what really killed me and what really changed the direction of my entire draft was the third pick, where anybody who's been listening to our podcast this whole preseason knows. In the third round, I anticipate getting one of, Corey Seeger, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Rendon. And while I knew it was a possibility that this would be the one draft where that didn't work out, even though they normally fall to the third, sometimes even the fourth, of course I knew that was a possibility. I wasn't really planning for it.
Starting point is 00:07:15 And I thought if it did happen, it meant somebody else obvious would fall. And I'd take the obvious player who fell. But that's not what happened at all. And in fact, that gets to the other thing that threw me with this draft. The other thing that threw me with this draft was that I, everybody picked so fast. I've never seen anything like it. It was a minute-long timer, but everybody was making their picks like within 10 seconds. To the point that the live radio program they were doing as this was going on,
Starting point is 00:07:47 they had to, we had to take a 10-minute break halfway through just so they could catch up to us. like the picks were going so fast, which, you know, a minute is enough time to pick. I'm not used to not having a minute timer to make a pick, but I'm used to in between my picks having enough time to really take inventory of what's still available, you know, so that I'm making sure I'm not overlooking anybody. And there were times in this draft where it got back to me,
Starting point is 00:08:13 even though I'm picking right in the middle, it got back to me so fast that I kind of had to make a split decision with, And like I'd notice, oh, that guy was still out there. And I didn't even have a chance to consider him because it was moving so fast. And that really started with the third round. So Corey Seeger went off the board. Bregman and Rendon both went off in round two, it being an OPP league. Maybe I should have anticipated that, but they were gone in round two, much less round three.
Starting point is 00:08:40 Seeger was still around longer. Four picks before I was up in round three, Seeger went off the board to Rudy Gamble of Rasball, who I consider my nemesis in this league. And so I had to fire off a tweet about that, obviously, thinking, you know, four picks till I pick, that's roughly four minutes till I have to pick. But in the time it took me to fire off that tweet with everybody picking so fast, I look up after my tweets out and 25 seconds are left. And obviously, I have no idea who to take in round three because this hasn't gone according to plan. So fortunately, I was keeping up with my tiers. I crossed up those last three names and Whitmerfield jumped out as the last of his tier.
Starting point is 00:09:16 you know, weak position, stolen base scarcity, okay, I take Merrifield. I really don't have time to debate it longer than that. Ad Alberto Mondesie was still out there. So like if I'm going to set, like if I'm going to make the steals play in round three, like that's the guy to do it. I understand it's an OBP league and Maryfield's going to have, like Montesey's OBP is going to be terrible even if he hits well. But Maryfield's, you know, it's not like he's an OBP standout.
Starting point is 00:09:45 I probably should have gone Mondays. to see. And, you know, that became increasingly obvious when in round seven could tell Marte was there. Again, 15 team league. Could tell Marte in round seven, I felt like I had to take advantage of that opportunity. So I also got Dylan Moore. I also got Jorge Palanga. Like, I have no shortage of second basement. Feeling second base was not a problem for me. So beginning my draft, pitcher, pitcher, and then my first hitter with Merrifield, it put me in such a whole power-wise that I had to devote a lot of the next few picks to addressing that power need. And I feel like I'm one big pitcher short because of that.
Starting point is 00:10:26 One big pitcher short. I had to take Luke Voight in round five, Nick Castellanos in round six, Marte in round seven, Carlos Correa, because there was a shortstop run that maybe I could have missed out on. Maybe I could have skipped, I mean, if I had already taken Mondesies. So Carlos Correa in round eight. So I end up with Bieber in round one, Nola in round two,
Starting point is 00:10:47 Kenta Maeda in round four, and then my fourth pitcher is Dylan Bundy in round nine. Not terrible, but I prefer Bundy as like a number five versus a number four. Now, like you look at my team on paper
Starting point is 00:11:00 compared to everybody else's, my pitching staff looks like the best. I mean, I won this league by dominating the pitching categories last year, and all except for saves, I'm in line to do that again. But that's just on paper, right?
Starting point is 00:11:15 And obviously, you know, if one of those top three starters, Bieber Nola, Kintamaiata goes down as starting pitchers are liable to do, then suddenly I don't have the most dominant pitching staff anymore. And I probably won't be in a position to trade from excess there, which is something I want to be in a position to do. So, you know, it could go fine. I just wish I had one more big arm in there. Probably should bring up the topic of not drafting a close. We've already spent 15 minutes on this. but I just wrapped a closer. Wasn't exactly by design,
Starting point is 00:11:50 but we talked about this on the podcast before, where I knew I'd be okay with it if it came to that. I didn't want to invest in closer. I'd only get cheapies like Will Smith and Amir Garrett and who else, Joaquin Soria, Daniel Bard, guys like that. And it just never worked out. But I actually went back and looked.
Starting point is 00:12:08 I finished first and saves in this league last year. And the only draft pick of mine that made a real contribution to say, was branding Kinsler. It wasn't even Mark Melanzet. It was branding Kinsler. And just over the course of those two months, I picked up Trevor Rosenthal.
Starting point is 00:12:23 I picked up, I'm forgetting, Stefan Kreiton, Greg Holland, a couple times I picked up Greg Holland. And I ended up winning saves. And that was addressing that over the course of two months. Now, this year I have six months to do it, presumably. So like,
Starting point is 00:12:39 maybe I'm just getting cocky because it worked out so well last year, but I think I can do that again. I think I can go in without drafting any saves and at least be competitive in the category, not necessarily win it. And I do appreciate that you have four Yankees on your team too, Scott. So you already see the Frank effect on your Tau Wars team, which, again, kudos, man. I really do appreciate that.
Starting point is 00:13:00 Gary Sanchez, I will just say, I thought it was one of your best value picks. Not just saying that, but the 13th round of a 15-team league, I thought that that was really, really good value as well. So you can find all these results over on CBSports.com. Scott had a write-up about what he did in this draft. You can find the draft results there as well. I'll put the draft results in the podcast description here for those that are listening so you can follow along with what we were just talking about.
Starting point is 00:13:28 Before we get to our email of the day, haven't done one of those in a while. I did just want to promote. Again, our fantasy baseball today draft prep guide is now live. And the link where you can find it, CBSports.com slash FBB draft kit. you can download it. You punch in your email. They'll send it to you. It's your one-stop shop
Starting point is 00:13:46 to help you dominate your drafts, sleepers, breakouts, busts, rankings, all tier strategies, analysis. And it's all written by us, mostly Scott and Chris, but some of my analysis in there as well. Again, the link for that is cbsports.com slash FBB draft kit
Starting point is 00:14:02 and subscribe to our YouTube channel. For those that are watching, we appreciate you, but you can, for those that are listening. And if you want to watch us live, we usually go live around 10.15. We've been pushing it to like 10.30 p.m. Easter time. Sunday through Thursdays.
Starting point is 00:14:18 Those will be the days that we do it in season as well. It'll be even later in season because we've got to wait for some games to go final there. So YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. Make sure to join our Facebook group as well. Facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. Email the day. This one came from Ryan. I was listening to the Baseball Tonight podcast,
Starting point is 00:14:41 and Buster Only is talking about a new baseball, potentially having a massive impact on the game, increasing strikeouts, and decreasing hitter sets. What do you know about this, and how will it change how you value players in fantasy baseball? And I retweeted a tweet from Alden Gonzalez, who covers baseball for ESPN. And yesterday, he said,
Starting point is 00:15:00 Padre's starter, Blake Snell, has noticed the laces are thicker in the new baseball, allowing him to dig in his fingers so he can more easily throw breaking balls. He also noticed fly balls are not carrying as much as they might have previously. Quote, it's definitely a different ball that came from Padre's starter. Blake Snell. Chris, wait, have they been using the balls in spring training?
Starting point is 00:15:22 Because I was in the impression they weren't. I believe this is called confirmation bias. And I mean, look, I don't know. I haven't held the balls. I don't know what they're like. I have no idea. Blake Snell is much more intimately, intimately acquainted with them. but from everything that I understand, spring training balls are always the previous years,
Starting point is 00:15:45 uh, leftovers, leftover batch. Um, sometimes they're from the World Series. Sometimes they're from the regular season. Um, so unless they're doing things differently this season,
Starting point is 00:15:58 and I have not seen it reported that they are, my understanding was this is the same baseball from 2020. And they won't get the new balls in play. until the start of the season. Yeah, I think it's kind of, I think it might be up in the air right now, Chris, because I was watching a game recently, and they were talking about how they might have already started mixing them in.
Starting point is 00:16:20 Like, a lot of the balls that they're using now are leftovers from last year, but they've already started, they might have already started mixing in some of the new balls as well. So I guess that's kind of up in the air. I mean, I don't think we should take this as nothing. I mean, if it is actually a different ball, Chris. it will be a different ball
Starting point is 00:16:38 during the regular season. Has that been accounted for, has that been accounted for in any of our rankings? I don't know. Well, no, what the effect's going to be. In theory, yes, I mean, they deadened the ball.
Starting point is 00:16:49 They made it less bouncy. But they also made it a little lighter, which is going to help it carry more. So what will the, those two, how will those two factors counterbalance it? Nobody can really say for sure. I mean, it was first reported, I think, in January,
Starting point is 00:17:08 you know, Saris and Ken Rosenthal combined for an article on the athletic. And in it, it was speculated that it would return to 2017 standards, I think, is what they said, which was the first jump. And then there was a second jump in 2019, right? It was midway through 2018. Okay. So the first jump was. midway through 2016.
Starting point is 00:17:37 And that's really, that was really the biggest transformation where you saw the little middle infielder's all become 20 homer guys was with that first jump. And that's what they were speculating it would return to. But that's speculation too. I mean, theoretically,
Starting point is 00:17:53 you could go back to 2014 where you had 11 guys hit 30 home runs in the whole league. We just, we just don't know until we, until we see it playing out. So I, I don't want to guess with, my rankings, you know? Like, I'd rather reassess than guess. Yeah, and we can do that once the season
Starting point is 00:18:11 starts, maybe a month in, and see how things are trending statistically. So we'll keep you updated on that. And I think, you know, we have talked about this a little bit and how some of those middle infielders could see their power numbers dip. It's part of the reason why we are worried about the power for someone like Kevin Bigio. So they have this tab on baseball savant.com where you can look at average home run distance. Anyone who has a lower average average average home run distance from last year or the past couple of years, you might want to devalue them a little bit. And guys that we know hit just absolute bombs, Pete Alonzo comes to mind, Matt Olson, guys that just hit the ball extremely hard. They're probably still going to be really safe for power. So just keep those things in mind when it comes to this new baseball.
Starting point is 00:18:53 Let's hit some news and notes before we get to these rankings debates that I have. Another day, more Carlos Carrasco news. Mets manager Luis Rojas said on Wednesday that Carrasco is dealing with some soreness in his elbow and won't throw for several days. My initial reaction was that the sky was falling. I was ripping my hair out. I almost said a bad word on Twitter and Scott came to my rescue there, so appreciate that. But a gentleman named Caleb Phillips actually responded to my tweet and sent me an article about how Carrasco has dealt with this same thing in the past. In spring training, around this time, I think it was mid-March of last year, where he deals with elbow inflammation. So it might just be a thing for Carrasco.
Starting point is 00:19:37 We had the report from yesterday that he's late in arriving to camp because of some medical procedures because he had leukemia. So, Scott, at what point do we start to lower Carasco in the rankings? Because I think we all like him, but this is pretty worrisome. He's already a guy who slips beyond what I think he should. So if this causes him to slip further, I'm going to be very excited to draft him. So I'm not that worried. I mean, I do remember him having past instances of this.
Starting point is 00:20:07 You know, you're ramping, you start ramping up for spring training. It stands to reason there's going to be soreness. I'm surprised we haven't heard about it for more pitchers yet. I haven't heard any talk of him going in for like an MRI or anything. So it doesn't, it doesn't sound like anything to really worry about. I mean, obviously, it'll make you second guess when you go to pull the trigger on him in the draft room. I think that's understandable. But, you know, stay level-headed with it.
Starting point is 00:20:33 it's just soreness as far as we know, and soreness is to be expected. Astro's pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley, will undergo Tommy John's surgery. He will miss all of this season and likely part of next season as well. Plus, the last time we saw him pitch, well, we didn't actually see him, but someone did in the minors back in 2019. He had an ERA over seven, so he wasn't very good. Chris, what does this mean for Forrest Whitley's dynasty value? It's not good. This is a guy who, what was it?
Starting point is 00:21:07 Are we going back to 2018 where we were expecting him to get called up? Is my timing on that correct? That was the time when he was the best pitching prospect. Yeah, 28. So, so. He was longer ago than 2018. I mean, he made it to AA in 2017. And in 2018, he was definitely, he only made eight starts that season.
Starting point is 00:21:29 And he was definitely like a weekly feature or, biweekly feature in Scott's Prospects watch call. We were expecting for us to get called up any time then. Now we're not going to see him until 2022 and probably not until, you know, a little bit after the 2022 season gets started. That's, yeah, less than ideal, but he'll still only be 24 years old. You know, it's starting to feel a little Alex Reyes-ish, but I'm starting to get excited about Alex Reyes again, you know, this season.
Starting point is 00:22:06 He's thrown really well so far in spring. So it doesn't close the book on him, but this is, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. That is the phrase, 10-step is the way we say it. And in Dynasty, it's really never all that great of an idea to invest in the 19th. 18-year-old pitcher who's tearing up high A. Sometimes it works out, but those guys flame out harder than any other type of prospect. Scott, would you try to acquire Fars Whitley for pennies on the dollar if you could right now in a dynasty league? Is it pennies on the dollar?
Starting point is 00:22:45 Yeah, I mean, he's... I'm normally going to give a pass to a pitcher who has Tommy John surgery just because it's... It's so common and the track record of pitchers who return from it is, you know, pretty strong, pretty strong. than picking up where they left off. It's not 100%, but it's pretty strong. So if it's pennies on the dollar, sure. I imagine, as of right now,
Starting point is 00:23:09 he'll be in my top 100 prospects, again, going into next season. And it's important to remember, like, Lucas Gialito is a good example. He himself was, at one point, the top pitching prospect in baseball, and looked like he was a total dud. And then he figured it out later on,
Starting point is 00:23:25 and that could happen with Forrest Whitley, too. So as long as we have reason believe talent is still there, then you shouldn't, in a dynasty, from a dynasty's perspective, you shouldn't entirely give up on it. From one end that, oh, sorry. Go ahead, Chris. The, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect thing. You know, that works both ways.
Starting point is 00:23:46 It also means that guys who you think are finished are never quite finished. You know, they can figure it out. It's, you know, not just about the volatility of starting pitching in a bad way. It's also just these guys are unpredictable. From one pitching prospect to another, Marlon's starting pitcher, Sixto Sanchez will have an innings limit this season. Sanchez has been delayed getting to camp following a false positive COVID test, and there has been talk that he will not be ready for opening day.
Starting point is 00:24:19 So I hit up my buddy, Craig Mish, and he reported that the inning's limit is likely to be around 150, which I don't really think that's much of a limit anyway for young starting pitchers. There's probably going to be a lot of pitchers. around that range anyway. But he also told me that 6th O Sanchez will not be ready to pitch in season until April 12th,
Starting point is 00:24:37 which would be the Marlins' 10th game of the season, and that will come against the Atlanta Braves. So I don't think it really changes much, but for the first couple of weeks, we might not have 6tho Sanchez out there. Yeah, I, this is, like, the 150 innings limit is not news to me. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:53 They had never said that, but I'm working under the assumption that looking at my rankings, Tristan McKenzie, maybe Tyler, Malley, Shoahotani, Julio Urius, Lance McCullors, maybe, Denelson Lemaet, Pablo Lopez, Jesus Lazzardo,
Starting point is 00:25:09 there's a lot of guys who I would be shocked if they threw more than 150 innings, even if they stay healthy. That's just the reality of the, like Tyler Glass now, I would be pretty surprised if Tyler Glass now throws more than 150 innings. So that's just the reality of the situation that
Starting point is 00:25:25 we're facing, but you know, it makes those guys less valuable relative to the guys who will throw 200 innings, which might only be one person this year, but maybe there's like eight or 10 who could actually do it conceivably. But it makes them more valuable than 150 inning pitcher would normally be because the total number of innings that you're going to have on your roto team, that denominator, is going to be lower than any other year.
Starting point is 00:25:56 Joey Votto, Reds first baseman, has tested positive for COVID-Hillard. be away from the team for at least 10 days while he waits to clear MLB's COVID protocols. We have had some people email in and ask how we are handling COVID for this season. So, Scott, are we doing anything differently from last year? Should we carry over some of those things that we did? Should we include more IL spots because there are inevitably going to be positive COVID test this season? What happens if a player test positive midweek? Should you be able to sub that player out?
Starting point is 00:26:26 What do you think, Scott? I actually haven't thought about that so much I never have a problem with having more IL spots Tau Wars has infinite IL spots and I haven't noticed really a negative impact for that so I'm always in favor of that if you know if you want to use the COVID thing as an excuse for it that's fine yeah it's still been a significant issue
Starting point is 00:26:52 for the NBA so far this season and you know I would guess you know you listen to like public health officials and it sounds like maybe you know may i saw today they're expecting like may will be when everybody is eligible to get the vaccine in new york so you figure you know he herd immunity shouldn't be that far after that um right now that's that's important too because like it may be an issue at the start of the season but as the season plays out it'll become less of an issue to the point that it's almost no issue i would say that that's i think it'll probably if it's an issue and it will be at some point
Starting point is 00:27:27 points. It shouldn't be by July. Yeah. Cross your fingers. We're all hoping that sooner, sooner the better that things get back to normal in the world and in Major League Baseball. Luke Voight was scratched from Tuesday's Grapefruit League lineup due to right knee sorens, but manager Aaron Boone wasn't too concerned about the issue. So we'll see what happens with Luke Voight. It got us orthotics, right? Was that something we talked about? Did he get orthotics this offseason for the feet? Yep. Yep. Yep.
Starting point is 00:27:56 Because you think, you know, I had to get orthotics because of recurring ankle pain because of my feet. It turns out. So, you know, I just wonder, sore knees, I don't know. Maybe it's entirely unrelated, but it crossed my mind. Yeah, I mean, it was part of the reason why, at least early on in the draft season, I was fading void for a little bit, but see what happens there. Astros manager, Dusty Baker, said Wednesday that Miles Straw and Carlos Correa are the leading candidates to begin the season as the leadoff hitter. obviously as the Miles Straw podcast here in 2021.
Starting point is 00:28:30 We were pretty excited about that possibility for him. Carlos Correa's pretty weird. It doesn't really strike me as a prototypical leadoff hitter. I thought maybe Altuve would be in that mix, even Alex Breggman because he walks so much. But he's not that different from George Springer at this point in their careers. Correa? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:48 He doesn't walk as much. Probably doesn't walk quite as much. But you're still probably, I mean, if he hits, he's going to have like a 370 on base percentage probably. True, fair enough. So, yeah, Correa. I mean, if he leads off, he'll give you more run scored, but we'll likely sacrifice some RBII for those who play in points leagues,
Starting point is 00:29:05 for those who play in Roto leagues. But in points leagues, you'll get more played appearances. So that can help Carlos Correa. If you are watching on the video side, don't go anywhere. If you are listening to the podcast, we are going to take a quick break. But when we return, we have an update on our listener leagues. So Chris asked for some Joey Gallo lyrics to cover the song, song Shallow from A Star is Born. And we said we would give away a spot in the podcast
Starting point is 00:29:32 league to the best lyrics that we received. And we got a bunch. And I really do appreciate them all. But the winner and the one that Chris ultimately went with were the lyrics from Sean Millerick. I hope I got your name right. Milerick, question mark. Yeah. So the lyrics he sent in, Chris went on to sing them and this is his best Lady Gaga impression. So please enjoy. Like, he actually stings well at the beginning when he's doing the mail part, you know? There was no chance that I was going to give him the Bradley Cooper part. Like 100%. That's fair.
Starting point is 00:31:12 That's fair. It just, you started right at like, I really just like whiff on that first note. Yeah, you butcher that one for sure. Yeah. No, it was fun. That's how I spent my morning today. My wife, my wife went out to the doctor and had the apartment by myself. So that was how I spent my morning.
Starting point is 00:31:33 Oh, man. Apologies to my neighbors. I was just about to say, I can only wonder what your neighbors were thinking because that must have been something. And for anyone who just listened to that, or if you're watching and you heard it, that song will be stuck in your head
Starting point is 00:31:46 for at least the next 24 hours. So enjoy, because I've been seeing it all day long. So great work there from, yep. Oh, go ahead. I want to go back to that discussion of the baseball and spring training, but whenever you, you're ready. Oh yeah. I was I was going to say thanks again to Sean and yes. Thank you Sean.
Starting point is 00:32:05 So that was excellent. If you have an update on the baseball, go ahead, Chris. It's not an update on the baseball so much as just so I went back and looked at spring training stats and obviously we're only, you know, 10 days in or whatever, but spring training stats for 2021 through 2016. I took 2020 out because it was just weird and you know, we don't know what the impact was. But, um, I did total plate appearances minus strikeouts divided by, or home runs divided by that. So just the share of balls in play that were home runs or balls that weren't strikeouts. Sorry. In 2021, it's 4.45%.
Starting point is 00:32:49 In 2019, it was 4.23%. In 2018, it was 4.09%. In 2017, it was 3.62%. And in 2016, it was 3.45%. and in 2016, it was 3.61%. One, that fits in with the timetable that we've been talking about if the spring training, you know, the baseball lags in spring training. We didn't see a spring training home run jump until 2018.
Starting point is 00:33:16 There is, at least based on this, there's no evidence that the baseball is carrying less here based on how often home runs are being hit so far. Maybe that will change as we move forward, but at least based on this extremely rudimentary, you know, statistical analysis, I would say that the spring training balls are not different so far. Okay. Okay. So. Or if they are different, there's no effect.
Starting point is 00:33:45 But they're probably just not different. Yeah. My assumption would be that they're not different, which means we won't know until, I mean, we'll know the first few days. We'll have enough data points after like four or five total games. because we'll have several hundred batted balls by that point. But at least right now, we don't know what the effect will be. My assumption is we'll see three to five percent reduction in home runs, primarily tilted towards players who don't hit the ball as hard.
Starting point is 00:34:15 But that's just a guess. Okay. So let's update people on that. The further that we go into spring training, because obviously we'll have more data for every preceding week here. as we lead up to the season. Rankings Debates. It only took us 40 minutes to get here,
Starting point is 00:34:29 but let's spend the rest of the show talking about them. We'll mix and match some Roto and some head-to-head points rankings. And of course, you could find these rankings on the site, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball slash rankings. That's it. Ends there. Okay, so let's start off,
Starting point is 00:34:46 let's start off with a head-to-head points one. And up at the top, starting pitchers, someone that Chris is pretty excited about, and I feel like you have made this known. Brandon Woodruff, who you have ranked as your 11th starting pitcher, Chris, just behind Clayton Kershaw, and just ahead of Lance Lynn. Wow, I did not realize you have Lance Lynn that high. So that is interesting as well.
Starting point is 00:35:08 But we'll stick with Brandon Woodruff here. In points. Scott has Brandon Woodruff five spots behind here at SP 16. So Chris, you will go first and explain why you were excited about Brandon Woodruff. He's really good. He throws hard. He gets a lot of whiffs. He gets a lot of strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:35:24 And the concern that I had about him last season, the reason I was a little skeptical of his 2019 breakout was he is bucking the trend of throwing fewer fastballs. This is a league-wide trend that has been going on for a long time. Last season, there were fewer fastballs thrown, or a lower rate of fastballs were thrown than ever before, at least in the pitch effects and stat-cast era. He throws a lot of fastballs, but he gets a lot of whiffs with his fastball.
Starting point is 00:35:54 And last season, he upped his spin rate about 200 RPMs on average for his fastball, which is a big deal when we're talking about one, any fastball, but especially one that is thrown 96, 97 miles per hour. It just spin rate is positively correlated with whiff rate for fastballs. And he had, it's like a 29% whiff rate or something on his four-seem fastball last season. That makes me think that his strike. rate is more sustainable. He can be an elite strikeout guy even without, you know, elite breaking pitches. And that makes his whole profile look a lot more sustainable. So I, um, I like Brandon Woodruff
Starting point is 00:36:38 a lot. He's going to pitch consistently deep into games, at least based on what we've seen over the last two seasons. Um, you know, for me, part of it is that, you know, my number 10 pitcher and my number a 16 pitcher are separated by 10 spots in the ranks. So I've got seven pitchers in that 10 spot radius. But I just also really like Brandon Woodruff. I think he's really good. And I don't think Scott dislikes him. No, no.
Starting point is 00:37:06 When I made out these rankings initially, which was like in October or something. So I was, you know, didn't have anything to compare them to. I presumed I was going to be one of the higher ones on Woodruff. I will move him up one spot ahead of Carlos Carrasco. It may be meaning to do that. But I put Woodruff on the right side of the, I call it the Lance Lynn line,
Starting point is 00:37:28 where basically everybody above the Lance Lynn line, I expect to pitch deep into games with great ratios and everybody below it. You know, they're falling short in one of those areas or the other. So Woodruff's on the right side of that. It's really not a talent question. The reason why he's toward the bottom end of that is because he hasn't thrown more than like 120 innings
Starting point is 00:37:47 in a season since 20. since 2016, I think, because of injuries. And again, it's more important to me that he's going deep into games, but it does seem possible that at some point they'll have to pull back on his, on him, not so much start to start, but maybe like a Phantom Iylston. Yeah, something like that. So, you know, just a mild concern there. But I love Brandon Woodruff, too.
Starting point is 00:38:14 Okay. Yeah, so just a slight difference there in the rankings. and just ahead of Woodruff for Scott. He is Zach Gallen, Kent and Maida, Walker, Bueller, and Jack Flaredy there in head-to-head points leagues, but he still likes him. Let's do one of these, let's do one of these rhodo ones. And let's start with, you know, Scott,
Starting point is 00:38:33 I haven't really heard why you don't like Pablo Lopez, even though I'm pretty excited about him, and it sounds, I think Chris is as well. But it seems like he, Paulo Lopez did everything last year that should warrant more excitement from you. Swinging strike rate goes up, very solid ERA, pretty good command, solid strikeouts as well. Yet, Scott, you have Pablo Lopez 48th
Starting point is 00:38:57 in your starting pitcher ranks in Roto, and Chris has him all the way up at 36. So why are you a little bit lower on Pablo Lopez, Scott? I think he's just a mid-class pitcher, and there's nothing wrong with that. I mean, I'd take him as my number five guy. Sure. His swinging strike rate went up.
Starting point is 00:39:16 to a pretty good level, but just a little more than a strikeout per inning. His ex-fip 3.73. You know, nothing special. I think he pitches fairly deep into games, but I just don't know that he has the potential to ascend to be like a real high-end option. And it might depend on his ability
Starting point is 00:39:37 to develop a breaking ball this spring. It's something he's been working on, but considering he doesn't even have a name for the breaking ball yet, whether it's a slider or a curveball. I'm not sure. I'm not willing to trust it's going to be an actual weapon for him. But it is something he's working on, and that could be a game changer. As things stand now, I just think there's a limit to...
Starting point is 00:39:56 I look at his numbers and see limited ceiling there. Yeah, Pablo Lopez could definitely benefit from using some type of breaking pitch last year. He threw his cutter 8% of the time. He threw his curbstle 7% of the time, but really relied heavily on his four seam and his sinker. And a change-up, which is very good. It's an awesome change-up. I have compared it to a Luis Castillo light type change up, but at least even Castillo has a slider to change,
Starting point is 00:40:22 you know, to change things up for opposing batters. Pablo Lopez doesn't have that pitch as of now. You know, Pablo Lopez just kind of gives me these Jose Barrios vibes. He hasn't done it for as long as Burrios. But if he, if he gives you, you know, a 37538 ERA and a 1.20 whip with a strikeout per inning, that's basically Jose Barrios. and you're getting him 50 picks, 40 picks later than Burrios?
Starting point is 00:40:47 That's a solid comp. I just think there's limit to Jose Barrios's upside too. And I rank Barrios higher because he's a guy we've seen go eight innings with some frequency the past few years. And obviously we haven't seen that from Lopez yet. But I think that's a fine comp for what Lopez could be. Sure. I think the difference is that workload.
Starting point is 00:41:11 you know, Burrios is, you know, when I said there are eight or ten guys who could conceivably, possibly throw 200 innings this season, it might be more than that. I haven't actually gone through, but Burrios is in that mix. He's thrown 192 and 200 innings in 2018 and 2019. If he gets to 200 innings this season, it wouldn't shock. I don't think there's any way Pablo Lopez gets there. He only threw more than, he only pitched more than six innings or pitched six full innings or more four times last season.
Starting point is 00:41:44 I should clarify, we've seen Burrios work into the eighth inning with regularity. He hasn't actually made it a full inning, eight innings that often. Let's go back over to head to head points. And look, if you don't know why Scott likes Cabrienne Hayes at this point, then you probably haven't listened to any of our podcast in the off season.
Starting point is 00:42:01 So we'll start off with Chris. Chris, I don't know if you know this, but you have Cabrion Hayes down at 22 in your third base ranks in head-to-head points leagues. Are you actually down on top? him or is it just a product of the third base position? Well, I would say if you don't know why I'm skeptical, more skeptical of Cabrion Hayes than Scott is, you haven't been listening to the podcast lately.
Starting point is 00:42:24 I am, that's not. I don't know if that came off as a shot against Scott. No, it's just to say that I am more skeptical than Scott and more skeptical than I think most people when it comes to the 2020 breakouts, especially when we're talking about guys who saw significant jump in production like Brian Hayes did. Obviously, we'd never seen him at the major league level before, but he played at a much higher level than he ever had in the minors. And so for me, it's just a little bit of a, you know,
Starting point is 00:42:57 let's see you do it again kind of thing. So I understand why you'd rank guys like Josh Donaldson ahead of him. Are you going to say Kyle Seeger? is that the one? Gio Orchella. Yeah, I mean, the ones I... That's the one that stands out. To get them as far down as 22nd,
Starting point is 00:43:16 it means you have to put him behind like Eduardo Escobar and Kyle Seeger and Brian Anderson. I know you're high on Brian Anderson, but I think most people would look at those guys, particularly from a head-to-head standpoint where you don't go that deep into the draft pool and say those are Jags,
Starting point is 00:43:33 while Brian Hayes has this, you know, potential to explode and become something more than that. I think that's fair. I think it's underselling Brian Anderson a little bit. I think he's potentially more than a jag. He's got better batted ball data than I think he gets credit for. His hard hit rate has been consistently above average. His barrel rate has consistently been, you know,
Starting point is 00:43:57 quite a few points above average over the last couple of seasons. So, like, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a 30-Homer season for Brian Anderson this season. Where, and, you know, it's all relative, but he does play in a better line. lineup. There should be more counting stats available for him. So I think I do have Cabrion Hayes higher than that in Roto at third base. Yeah, I think I don't suspect. So yeah, I think you had him 17th in Roto. So yeah, about five spots higher than in head to head points. Imagine I think I could move him up. You know, that's one of those ones that I'm, I'm, you know, Once you get past like 170, it's all kind of fungible.
Starting point is 00:44:42 Imagine having a worse lineup than the Marlins. You just said Brian Anderson's in a better lineup than Brian Hayes. And it's factual. It's just, I mean, just imagine that. It's name three pirates. Go. Gregory Polanco. Jacob Stallings.
Starting point is 00:44:57 Are we sure those are real people? In a standard size mixed league draft, it's very likely just one pirate is being drafted. Hey, maybe Richard Rodriguez, the closer. But that's it. I mean, Mitch Keller would be next maybe. And some of the deeper drafts we've seen, we've seen Gregory Polanco taken.
Starting point is 00:45:17 But yeah, it's bad. You don't want opening day starter Stephen Brault on your team? How dare you, Scott? Let's jump over to Roto. And someone who, I thought you guys both liked, based on the way you talked about him in our pitching preview. But Charlie Morton, Chris has him as his SP 29. And Scott, you have him as your SP 38 in.
Starting point is 00:45:36 Roto. So why does he fall out of that top 35, right? Scott, I think it ends with Dylan Bundy, where you want five of those top 35. Why is Charlie Morton not inside of that? Well, I mean, he didn't have a good year last year. And I have pointed out that you know, after he spent some time on the IEL with the shoulder injury, he came back throwing harder. And his numbers, regular season from that point in the regular season through the playoffs were actually pretty good. It was actually a lot like
Starting point is 00:46:08 prior to the shoulder injury. So I was just I really wanted to see how he looked this spring and so far he's aren't rave reviews. He looks really good. So I'm due to move him up some but I like... Okay, so he needs to go ahead of Patrick Corbyn
Starting point is 00:46:26 who's not throwing his... His velocity's still down the spring and I wanted to see what he'd do too. Not rave reviews so far. At least me being the reviewer. So I'll move him ahead of Patrick Corbett. But then beyond that, you get to, like, Lance McCullors, Jesus Lazzardo, 6-2-Sand.
Starting point is 00:46:42 These are really good pitchers, I think. I don't know. I don't know. Why do you have them ahead of those guys, Chris? In particular, like, looking at McCullors, I think the best version of Patrick or Charlie Morton is better than the best version of Lance McCullors. The best version of Lance McCullors.
Starting point is 00:47:00 I don't think we've seen the best version of Lance McCullors yet, to be clear. That's fair. He's on my breakout list for this year. That's fair. He's just consistently been a relatively high ERA guy. Not four plus, but usually in the high threes. I would guess if we saw the best versions of both of them,
Starting point is 00:47:23 based on what we've seen so far, at least, Charlie Morton would be better in... Yeah, I mean, at least three and probably four of the categories. Charlie Morton was a Cy Young contender in 2019. Yeah, he was a top. 12 starting very old and he had a he had he's very old and he had a he was known it for being brittle before that year that was really the one year where he ramped up his workload like an ace and then he had shoulder problems the next year so that factors into thinking too i mean mcculler's no model
Starting point is 00:47:51 of health himself right um yeah i don't know i need to think about that some more i could see moving mccullers i mean i'm sorry i could see moving morton up as high as like 30 i can't see him moving him ahead of Chris Paddock, let's say. That was exactly the name I was looking at. He's one spot ahead of Chris Paddock for me in the overall ranking. Boo. Boo, Chris. I also think Chris Paddock is still a curveball away from being the best version of himself.
Starting point is 00:48:22 And the version that we saw in 2019, it's not shocking that he wasn't as good in 2020. I didn't think he would be as bad as he was, but the peripherals in 2019 did not support the borderline ace production or the way he was being drafted. But it helps to know he's got the spin rate on his fastball way up and he looked into that this off season. I have a lot of hope for a Chris Battick bounce back.
Starting point is 00:48:47 And yet I do think he overperformed a little in 2019. But it is funny that Scott has, I am nine spots higher in the starting pitching ranks on Morton and I'm nine spots higher in the overall ranks than, skies. Which just shows you the distribution of hitters and pitchers in our respective ranks. Right.
Starting point is 00:49:10 One of those names that you brought up, Scott, was Gary Sanchez. You took him in your top word draft, and you have him fourth in your catcher rankings in head-to-head points. Chris, you have them all the way down at number 12 in your catcher ranks. Chris, we will start with you. Why so low on El-Garri? I mean, you know, all of it, everything, you know, the way his career has gone. I think is a pretty good argument.
Starting point is 00:49:36 Head to head points is not his best format. And this is another situation where the difference between number 12 and number 7 at catcher for me is very slim in head to head points leagues. But I think there are legitimate issues with his swing. And it's not the kind of thing where if I see him have a good couple of weeks in the spring, it's going to change how I view it because he's a heavily timing-based. batter. You know, he's got a big leg kick. He's got, um, you know, a lot of moving parts. And that's how he generates so much power. And he is one of the elite power hitters in baseball, not just at the catcher position on a per plate appearance basis. He's, you know, as good as just
Starting point is 00:50:18 about anyone. But I don't, I don't know where this idea, though, that, oh, man, his career has been, like in 2019, he was the second best catch catcher in fantasy points per game. In 2017, he was the best catcher in fantasy points per game. I did skip 2018. It was another bad year. But even that, like, it was bad relative to the majority of his career. But it's not like he was not a starting caliber catcher in head-to-head points leagues. It looks like he had, yeah, even in 2018, when he hit 186, his power production was so good
Starting point is 00:50:54 that he was the third best catcher in head-to-head points per game. I think he's fine for this format. Okay, that's better than I gave him credit for then. And I wasn't saying his career's been bad. It's just been he's been extremely inconsistent. And he's had a lot of trouble staying healthy. He's never played more than 122 games. Yes, he's a catcher, so there's a relatively high ceiling.
Starting point is 00:51:19 But even that 2017 season, I'm pretty sure there was an I-L stint mixed in there at some point. It's more like if I moved Gary Sanchez up to seventh and, you know, you know, swapped him with Austin Nola. I could do that. I don't feel super strongly about it. It's more in a head-to-head points league. I just, I'm not going to make Gary Sanchez a big priority. And if I miss out on him this year as a result of that, I'm okay with that.
Starting point is 00:51:50 But it is like what I see from him this spring where he doesn't look helpless at the plate. He's hitting bombs again. you know, that was, if not for that, I wouldn't have taken him in the 13th round of Tau Wars. Now, I think Chris would even take him in the 13th round of a 15-team league, right? Yeah, that's fine. It was as much the value I liked there as the spring performance,
Starting point is 00:52:15 but it was the intersection of those two factors as opposed to just one on its own. And the thing I always struggle with with the, like, he's looked good in the spring so far is, I guarantee we could find a seven-game stretch last season where he had four strikeouts and three home runs or something similar to that. So it's just like I said before, it's not the kind of thing, given how out of whack he's gotten at various points in his career where, oh, he's had a good two weeks.
Starting point is 00:52:45 I feel confident in him moving forward. I think the inconsistency is part of the package until he proves otherwise. He's also in the best shape of his life, Chris, which I don't know. I don't know that you've taken that into your... That's fair. I'm not taking that into account. I'm looking at the game long. I don't think there was a seven game or a four-game stretch where he's...
Starting point is 00:53:08 What was it? A seven-game stretch where he struck out just four times? It doesn't appear so. There was a seven-game stretch where he struck out six times. But yeah, he'd still hit 10-home runs. But the strike area was just absurd for him last year. It was crazy. And if you want some top-notch fantasy analysis,
Starting point is 00:53:26 every odd year, Gary Sanchez has been awesome. So just saying, just saying. He had three different seven game stretches last year with five strikeouts. Okay, so that's progress. That's, Chris, this is what we're looking for in the spring. We're looking for progress, and that's what we've gotten. How did you find that so quickly?
Starting point is 00:53:46 Fancraft's rolling game logs, baby? I'm telling you, Chris. I'm telling you, Chris is a wizard. All right, we only have time for one more. So among these, RodeGives. discrepancies. Who do you guys want to talk about most? Trent Grisham, Victor Robles, James Karenchak, and Raphael Montero.
Starting point is 00:54:02 I don't think the reliever ones matter all that much. Scott and I have Maynard. I'm really curious why you have Montero so high, but that's fine. Probably, probably Grisham, right? I think Grisham, we've talked a lot about Grisham. I've said my Grisham thing a lot,
Starting point is 00:54:17 but we can do it again. What was the other, what was the other non-reliever one? Victor Robles. Victor Robles. Scott hates Victor Robles, man. It's just boring. That's fine. We'll be talk about Victor Robles.
Starting point is 00:54:28 I think they might be very similar players this season. I think Victor Robles has a higher stolen base ceiling. And that's what we're very interested in in 2020. I mean, Grisham looks like a 30 steel guy himself. Maybe Robles could be a 40 steel guy, but we've never seen that from him. I have real concerns about how each of those guys, Victor Robles and Trent Grisham
Starting point is 00:54:56 how their bats are going to play and I have Trent Grisham higher than Victor Robles but as you should there yes there are like Victor
Starting point is 00:55:09 or Trent Grisham I'm not convinced he can hit lefties at an adequate enough level to not face you know either being moved down in the lineup or possibly even being platoon that is a team that has a ton of capable players
Starting point is 00:55:25 that they could swap in and out of the lineup. So I think there's some risk there. And it seems like Trent Grisham is one of those players for whom a lot of people are treating it as if 2020 was the first time we saw him in the majors and not roughly half of his major league career so far.
Starting point is 00:55:48 He played 51 games in 2019. He hit six home runs, had one stolen base that seems to be a brewer's thing. But he has 738 OPS. He hit 231. I think there is more risk
Starting point is 00:56:00 in Trent Grisham being like a 240 hitter with 15 home runs than the consensus seems to give him credit for. He had a high and feeling 30 bases.
Starting point is 00:56:15 I don't know that that's a disaster. I don't think 30 steals is going to happen. Oh, 25. I mean, yeah, he was on a 25. five steal pace last year, but that was with only one caught stealing. I would point out, too, like you complain about the weak contact for Trink Grisham, like you do for Kevin Bigeo.
Starting point is 00:56:33 Kevin Bishio's expected stats because of his quality contact were microscopic. I mean, he looks like a slap hitting nothing. But Grisham, as good as he was last year, he actually underperformed his expected stats. He underperformed his expected batting average. He underperformed his expected slug. I'm not saying the expected stats of the end-all be-all, but I'm saying, and the quality of contact he made last year, according to stat cast,
Starting point is 00:56:55 was good enough to earn him even better numbers than he actually had. So that's a big reason why I don't share your concerns. And, you know, obviously he dominated. And like, his minor league stats were awesome. Grishams were. So, that's the yes and no. I think it was mostly.
Starting point is 00:57:16 He dominated it for 34 games. The most recent. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, double A, he had a 768 OPE. Yes. I think he's going to get on base at time. I don't usually look at full minor league career stats because obviously players are changing throughout their minor league career.
Starting point is 00:57:31 But that's fair. It is factual. It's just the case for him, he took this big leap in 2019 in the minors. And then in the majors, he wasn't that great. Okay, maybe he was acclimating. He took another leap in 2020. That's all possible. I think there are enough red flags.
Starting point is 00:57:50 And I'm not saying I don't like him. I have him as a top 30 outfielder. That's really high. It's just, I mean, I have enough questions about whether he's, one, I just don't think he's going to hit for batting average. I think he's going to be like a 240 to 250 guy. And I'm not counting on him being an elite stolen base guy. My expectation is more like 15 steals.
Starting point is 00:58:17 It's very fast and the Padres love to run. And he's going to get on base a lot. because of those walks, whether he hits well or not, he's going to get on base a lot. And he's leading off for one of the best lineups in baseball. So we don't know if he's leading off. If we get a guarantee that he's going to be leading off every day, I will move him up because that is...
Starting point is 00:58:38 He's going to at least lead off against righties, wouldn't you agree, Chris? He did so last year. Why wouldn't he this year? Probably. Yeah, I would assume so. But that's still, you know, only 65 to 70% of the games. And if he's batting eighth against lefties,
Starting point is 00:58:51 or if he's losing playing time against lefties. It's not that I don't see the upside that everyone else does because I do. It's that there is more downside than, like, we're drafting him like 70th overall right now. I agree that's a lot. Some people might not be factoring in the downside because I see what you were saying
Starting point is 00:59:13 with the infield fly ball rate in particular is something that I don't like about him. 16% last year. That was pretty high. But everything, he hits a lot of line drives. He's been adequate against lefties so far in his career.
Starting point is 00:59:27 And even if it's only against right-handed pitching, if he's leading off 65% of the time for the Padres lineup and 35% of the time he's betting eighth, he's still going to score 90-plus runs, maybe even 100-plus. I've made this comparison before with Kyle Tucker.
Starting point is 00:59:43 Kyle Tucker might bet seventh for the Astros. He can easily move up. I realize that, but I just don't see a huge difference between Kyle Tucker and Trent Grisham, and people have so much more confidence in Tucker than Thank you, Kyle Tucker is a much better hitter. It's certainly a better power hitter, I would say.
Starting point is 01:00:01 I do address the Roebbler. Much better. Because I do need to move Robles up if he's for sure batting Lidoff Victor Robles for the Nationals as it seems to be trending that way. But I don't get this assumption that he's suddenly going to be a transformed player. I know obviously he had the great prospect pedigree,
Starting point is 01:00:19 but he hasn't looked like a good hitter in the majors. He looked like an especially bad hitter last year, small sample, whatever. He's been striking out a lot this spring, so I'm not really seeing transformation having happened here. Like, even if he starts out in the lead-off spot, I'm not confident he's going to keep it. So I get him as like a steals play, but to me there's not a huge difference between him and, like,
Starting point is 01:00:43 Laoti Tavares, if that's all you're drafting him for. I think part of it is his stolen base attempt pace while batting first or second in his career I think it's I wrote this down the other day it's like 45 or 50 that can't be a very large sample it's like 40 something games is that a large sample I don't know
Starting point is 01:01:12 sound like a large sample for Victor Robles' career. 52 games batting either first or second. He has 17 steals in those 52 games. Correct. Yeah. So,
Starting point is 01:01:26 so that is like a... Like, if he hits well enough to keep the lead off spot, and obviously that pace becomes the new standard for him, all right. I guess he's another at Alberto Mondesie. Yeah, I don't think he's out of American Mondesie. I have no confidence in that. Like, he still does not...
Starting point is 01:01:45 I still have no... evidence he's a good hitter, except for he was a big prospect once upon a time. Yeah, I'm not counting on him being a good hitter. I think his career line, 250, 320, 407, I think that's perfectly attainable. And if they're okay with that from the leadoff spot, you know, he could be a 35 steel guy. And that's the biggest thing for me is just with how much we're pushing steals up, give me the guy who legitimately does have 30 plus stolen base potential. I don't think Trent Grisham does.
Starting point is 01:02:12 But I have Trent Grisham very well-minded. I have Trent Grisham ranked higher. comparison. Sure. I do have Trent Grisham ranked higher. Okay.
Starting point is 01:02:19 But neither is as high as Byron Bucks. Oh my gosh. That's a topic for another day. I think Chris has him all the way up at like
Starting point is 01:02:25 SP Outfield der 20 in Roto. So I appreciate the consistency there. Chris. The last thing I will say put a ball on all of this is that I,
Starting point is 01:02:34 and this comes from someone who likes Grisham, I do think that we're probably not factoring in his downside enough into his average draft position. And I think it's
Starting point is 01:02:42 the complete opposite for Victor Robles. If he's leading off of the national, I don't think that we're factoring in his upside enough based on where he's being drafted right now. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank Bigel over listening and watching fantasy baseball today. We'll be back again tomorrow with a live head-to-head points mock draft.
Starting point is 01:02:58 Bye-bye.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.