Fantasy Baseball Today - Rankings Debates! Tout Wars Draft Recap (3/11 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
Episode Date: March 11, 2021So did Scott realize that saves were a category in his Tout Wars draft on Tuesday night (2:25)? How to account for OBP in your categories drafts. ... Our email of the day asks about the new baseball (...14:36). How should we be accounting that for that this season? ... Let's hit some news and notes, starting with Carlos Carrasco who is now dealing with elbow discomfort (18:57). Forrest Whitley is headed for Tommy John surgery while Sixto Sanchez is delayed. ... IF YOU WANT TO HEAR CHRIS TOWERS SINGING LIKE LADY GAGA, HERE IS WHERE YOU DO SO (30:21). ... We have rankings debates (35:27). The players we focus on include Brandon Woodruff, Pablo Lopez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Charlie Morton, and Gary Sanchez. We wrap up with a Trent Grisham conversation (55:15). ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com. Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday 'Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank, @AdamAizer Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports.
I drive, center field, and swing.
This is magnificent.
Got a fantasy question?
Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Get ready to win your league.
Well, fantasy becomes reality.
Now here's Frank, Scott, Chris, and Adam.
We have rankings, debates.
Plus, did Scott White know that saves were a category in its Tout Wars draft last night?
Find out next on Fantasy.
baseball today. Welcome in Frank Stanfield, joined as always by Chris Towers and Scotty
dubbed. I've been doing too many fantasy baseball today in fives, so I just kind of like merge
those intros right now. I just realized I did a cold open, but no worries. We're here.
And we have a lot to talk about, including another Carlos Carrasco update, everything else I
mentioned thus far. And a recording of Chris singing like Lady Gaga, which was just phenomenal.
If you follow Chris on Twitter, you've probably already seen it, but it was so great. Chris,
do they call that a...
Not that much.
much like Lady Gaga, though quite a bit like Bradley Cooper.
I can do the Bradley Cooper voice for sure.
Yeah.
The Lady Gaga voice, a little more difficult, a little bit out of my range.
Chris, is that what they call a falsetto?
Is that what you were doing there?
That was definitely, it was definitely a falsetto.
Yeah.
You can tell, I don't know much about my musical terminology,
but looking forward to that a little bit later on.
It's going to be a lot of fun.
Scott, what's going on, man?
True story, Scott had to call me last night to talk about his Tau Wars team, which I appreciate.
That means, you know, I've become a shoulder to lean on for Scotty.
Wow.
I had to decompress.
I had to decompress.
I'm glad you got the, I'm glad you got the, the outlet you were looking for, Scott.
No, it's fine.
It's fine.
He texted me.
So I took it as an open invitation.
I, that's fine.
I chat him up for 15 minutes about my team.
I hate talking.
I don't even like having friends.
So that's good.
If you're wondering what we're talking about,
Scott had his Tout Wars draft last night,
which is an industry analyst league,
expert league,
15 team 5x5 Roto.
There are a bunch of different Tout Wars League.
So if you hear more than one,
Chris is in one that had a wacky type of scoring format in Roto.
And this was another one that Scott is in,
and he is the defending champion,
5x5 Roto with OBP instead of batting average,
15 teams as I mentioned.
and Scott had the eighth pick.
Before we actually get into your takeaways from the draft,
someone emailed in earlier, Scott,
and asked, why did you choose the eighth pick
instead of the first overall pick?
So let's start there.
Well, Frank, I don't know why.
Okay, so I had the first choice of what pick to take
and I chose to pick eighth.
I got the first choice because I am the defending champion.
And my philosophy on that is usually like,
if you value a bunch of players more or less the same,
then take the pick at the end of that run of player.
So I don't know why you would pick first.
I also don't love picking on the end in general
because it requires you to forecast so far ahead
that you end up reaching a lot of times.
You end up missing out on important runs
because it's just so long in between those back-to-back picks you make.
So I generally prefer to pick in the middle,
but mostly it was about how much, who I thought,
who I thought I'd get in the first round
and who I thought I'd get in the second round.
And I don't know.
It's interesting that they asked it that way
because after I picked eighth,
like the next few people who got to pick,
they basically just picked that order,
first, second, third, four.
Like,
um,
so I was confused why they did that.
But ultimately,
I'm not happy with how picking eighth worked
because things did not go.
Things did not play out.
like I planned for them too.
I would say at least the first two rounds played out the way that you would want a draft to work out.
No, no, it really didn't.
It really didn't.
Let me tell you.
Why?
I picked eight thinking,
okay,
I want one of the big three pitchers.
Shane Bieber's obviously my first choice,
but,
you know,
most people he'd be the third of those three.
Fine.
If for some reason all three of them went in the first eight picks,
that's fine too.
I'd get Mike Trout, right?
That's obviously not a bad way to start the draft.
and then the second round, I'd still get another ace,
like you Darvish or Trevor Bauer,
that would have been fine with me too.
Gets to the eighth pick and nobody's picked a pitcher yet.
So I'm still taking Shane Bieber
because he's my top-ranked pitcher, right?
But like, it meant I took Shane Bieber earlier
than he was supposed to go relative to this other two pitchers.
So it was just inefficient in how that played out.
And I do appreciate that you stuck by your rankings there
because when it got to your pick,
I was like, oh man, Jacob de Grom, no-brainer.
And then I was like, but wait, Scott has Bieber ranked as his number one pitcher.
So is he actually going to do it?
And you did.
So I appreciate that you, you know, the advice that you give people is what you use yourself.
So Scott had the eighth overall pick and he wound up taking Shane Bieber in the first round there.
I will say just in terms of industry leagues, what you'll see a lot of the times in these fantasy baseball drafts is it's a lot like in fantasy football where in industry or expert leagues where quarterbacks just fall way for.
further than you're used to seeing them. And it's kind of the same thing with starting
pitching, at least early on in this draft. So, Scott, I'll just kind of hand it over to you, and you can
say as much as you want. I've got some questions, but basically, you started with two pitchers,
and then your draft started in the third round. Yeah, so a couple things through me in this draft.
One, by virtue of being able to pick where I picked, it forced me to game plan a little more than I
probably would going into most drafts where, you know, I'm assigned to pick a certain place
and whoever's available there is who I'll take, you know? But this, because I got to choose
where to pick, I was thinking ahead to second round, third round, but what might that look like
if I picked here versus here? And like I said, it didn't go that way. Beginning with that very
first pick, you know, it looks like I reached for Shane Bieber because those two other starting
pitchers that everybody would take ahead of Bieber, we're still there.
Second round pick was fine, taking Nola.
Okay, I figured I'd take a starting pitcher in the second round either way,
whether I got Bieber in the first round or got Trout in the first round.
But what really killed me and what really changed the direction of my entire draft was the third
pick, where anybody who's been listening to our podcast this whole preseason knows.
In the third round, I anticipate getting one of,
Corey Seeger, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Rendon.
And while I knew it was a possibility that this would be the one draft where that didn't work out,
even though they normally fall to the third, sometimes even the fourth,
of course I knew that was a possibility.
I wasn't really planning for it.
And I thought if it did happen, it meant somebody else obvious would fall.
And I'd take the obvious player who fell.
But that's not what happened at all.
And in fact, that gets to the other thing that threw me with this draft.
The other thing that threw me with this draft was that I, everybody picked so fast.
I've never seen anything like it.
It was a minute-long timer, but everybody was making their picks like within 10 seconds.
To the point that the live radio program they were doing as this was going on,
they had to, we had to take a 10-minute break halfway through just so they could catch up to us.
like the picks were going so fast,
which, you know, a minute is enough time to pick.
I'm not used to not having a minute timer to make a pick,
but I'm used to in between my picks having enough time
to really take inventory of what's still available,
you know, so that I'm making sure I'm not overlooking anybody.
And there were times in this draft where it got back to me,
even though I'm picking right in the middle,
it got back to me so fast that I kind of had to make a split decision with,
And like I'd notice, oh, that guy was still out there.
And I didn't even have a chance to consider him because it was moving so fast.
And that really started with the third round.
So Corey Seeger went off the board.
Bregman and Rendon both went off in round two, it being an OPP league.
Maybe I should have anticipated that, but they were gone in round two, much less round three.
Seeger was still around longer.
Four picks before I was up in round three, Seeger went off the board to Rudy Gamble of Rasball,
who I consider my nemesis in this league.
And so I had to fire off a tweet about that, obviously, thinking, you know, four picks till I pick, that's roughly four minutes till I have to pick.
But in the time it took me to fire off that tweet with everybody picking so fast, I look up after my tweets out and 25 seconds are left.
And obviously, I have no idea who to take in round three because this hasn't gone according to plan.
So fortunately, I was keeping up with my tiers.
I crossed up those last three names and Whitmerfield jumped out as the last of his tier.
you know, weak position, stolen base scarcity, okay, I take Merrifield.
I really don't have time to debate it longer than that.
Ad Alberto Mondesie was still out there.
So like if I'm going to set, like if I'm going to make the steals play in round three,
like that's the guy to do it.
I understand it's an OBP league and Maryfield's going to have,
like Montesey's OBP is going to be terrible even if he hits well.
But Maryfield's, you know, it's not like he's an OBP standout.
I probably should have gone Mondays.
to see. And, you know, that became increasingly obvious when in round seven could tell Marte was there.
Again, 15 team league. Could tell Marte in round seven, I felt like I had to take advantage of that
opportunity. So I also got Dylan Moore. I also got Jorge Palanga. Like, I have no shortage of second
basement. Feeling second base was not a problem for me. So beginning my draft, pitcher, pitcher,
and then my first hitter with Merrifield, it put me in such a whole power-wise that I had to
devote a lot of the next few picks to addressing that power need.
And I feel like I'm one big pitcher short because of that.
One big pitcher short.
I had to take Luke Voight in round five, Nick Castellanos in round six,
Marte in round seven, Carlos Correa,
because there was a shortstop run that maybe I could have missed out on.
Maybe I could have skipped, I mean, if I had already taken Mondesies.
So Carlos Correa in round eight.
So I end up with Bieber in round one,
Nola in round two,
Kenta Maeda in round four,
and then my fourth pitcher
is Dylan Bundy in round nine.
Not terrible,
but I prefer Bundy as like a number five
versus a number four.
Now,
like you look at my team on paper
compared to everybody else's,
my pitching staff looks like the best.
I mean,
I won this league by dominating
the pitching categories last year,
and all except for saves,
I'm in line to do that again.
But that's just on paper, right?
And obviously, you know, if one of those top three starters, Bieber Nola, Kintamaiata goes down as starting pitchers are liable to do, then suddenly I don't have the most dominant pitching staff anymore.
And I probably won't be in a position to trade from excess there, which is something I want to be in a position to do.
So, you know, it could go fine.
I just wish I had one more big arm in there.
Probably should bring up the topic of not drafting a close.
We've already spent 15 minutes on this.
but I just wrapped a closer.
Wasn't exactly by design,
but we talked about this on the podcast before,
where I knew I'd be okay with it if it came to that.
I didn't want to invest in closer.
I'd only get cheapies like Will Smith and Amir Garrett
and who else,
Joaquin Soria, Daniel Bard, guys like that.
And it just never worked out.
But I actually went back and looked.
I finished first and saves in this league last year.
And the only draft pick of mine
that made a real contribution to say,
was branding Kinsler.
It wasn't even Mark Melanzet.
It was branding Kinsler.
And just over the course of those two months,
I picked up Trevor Rosenthal.
I picked up, I'm forgetting,
Stefan Kreiton,
Greg Holland, a couple times
I picked up Greg Holland.
And I ended up winning saves.
And that was addressing that over the course of two months.
Now, this year I have six months to do it, presumably.
So like,
maybe I'm just getting cocky
because it worked out so well last year,
but I think I can do that again.
I think I can go in without drafting any saves and at least be competitive in the category,
not necessarily win it.
And I do appreciate that you have four Yankees on your team too, Scott.
So you already see the Frank effect on your Tau Wars team, which, again, kudos, man.
I really do appreciate that.
Gary Sanchez, I will just say, I thought it was one of your best value picks.
Not just saying that, but the 13th round of a 15-team league, I thought that that was really,
really good value as well.
So you can find all these results over on CBSports.com.
Scott had a write-up about what he did in this draft.
You can find the draft results there as well.
I'll put the draft results in the podcast description here for those that are listening
so you can follow along with what we were just talking about.
Before we get to our email of the day, haven't done one of those in a while.
I did just want to promote.
Again, our fantasy baseball today draft prep guide is now live.
And the link where you can find it, CBSports.com slash FBB draft kit.
you can download it.
You punch in your email.
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sleepers, breakouts, busts, rankings,
all tier strategies, analysis.
And it's all written by us,
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Again, the link for that is cbsports.com
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This one came from Ryan.
I was listening to the Baseball Tonight podcast,
and Buster Only is talking about a new baseball,
potentially having a massive impact on the game,
increasing strikeouts, and decreasing hitter sets.
What do you know about this,
and how will it change how you value players in fantasy baseball?
And I retweeted a tweet from Alden Gonzalez,
who covers baseball for ESPN.
And yesterday, he said,
Padre's starter, Blake Snell,
has noticed the laces are thicker in the new baseball,
allowing him to dig in his fingers
so he can more easily throw breaking
balls. He also noticed fly balls are not carrying as much as they might have previously.
Quote, it's definitely a different ball that came from Padre's starter.
Blake Snell.
Chris, wait, have they been using the balls in spring training?
Because I was in the impression they weren't.
I believe this is called confirmation bias.
And I mean, look, I don't know. I haven't held the balls.
I don't know what they're like.
I have no idea.
Blake Snell is much more intimately, intimately acquainted with them.
but from everything that I understand,
spring training balls are always the previous years,
uh,
leftovers,
leftover batch.
Um,
sometimes they're from the World Series.
Sometimes they're from the regular season.
Um,
so unless they're doing things differently this season,
and I have not seen it reported that they are,
my understanding was this is the same baseball from 2020.
And they won't get the new balls in play.
until the start of the season.
Yeah, I think it's kind of,
I think it might be up in the air right now, Chris,
because I was watching a game recently,
and they were talking about how they might have already started mixing them in.
Like, a lot of the balls that they're using now
are leftovers from last year,
but they've already started,
they might have already started mixing in some of the new balls as well.
So I guess that's kind of up in the air.
I mean, I don't think we should take this as nothing.
I mean, if it is actually a different ball, Chris.
it will be a different ball
during the regular season.
Has that been accounted for,
has that been accounted for in any of our rankings?
I don't know.
Well, no,
what the effect's going to be.
In theory, yes,
I mean, they deadened the ball.
They made it less bouncy.
But they also made it a little lighter,
which is going to help it carry more.
So what will the,
those two,
how will those two factors counterbalance it?
Nobody can really say for sure.
I mean, it was first reported, I think, in January,
you know, Saris and Ken Rosenthal combined for an article on the athletic.
And in it, it was speculated that it would return to 2017 standards, I think, is what they said,
which was the first jump.
And then there was a second jump in 2019, right?
It was midway through 2018.
Okay.
So the first jump was.
midway through 2016.
And that's really,
that was really the biggest transformation
where you saw the little middle
infielder's all become 20 homer guys
was with that first jump.
And that's what they were speculating it would return to.
But that's speculation too.
I mean, theoretically,
you could go back to 2014 where you had 11 guys
hit 30 home runs in the whole league.
We just,
we just don't know until we,
until we see it playing out.
So I,
I don't want to guess with,
my rankings, you know? Like, I'd rather reassess than guess. Yeah, and we can do that once the season
starts, maybe a month in, and see how things are trending statistically. So we'll keep you
updated on that. And I think, you know, we have talked about this a little bit and how some of
those middle infielders could see their power numbers dip. It's part of the reason why we are
worried about the power for someone like Kevin Bigio. So they have this tab on baseball savant.com
where you can look at average home run distance. Anyone who has a lower average average
average home run distance from last year or the past couple of years, you might want to devalue them a little bit.
And guys that we know hit just absolute bombs, Pete Alonzo comes to mind, Matt Olson, guys that just hit the ball extremely hard.
They're probably still going to be really safe for power. So just keep those things in mind when it comes to this new baseball.
Let's hit some news and notes before we get to these rankings debates that I have. Another day, more Carlos Carrasco news.
Mets manager Luis Rojas said on Wednesday that Carrasco is dealing with some soreness in his
elbow and won't throw for several days. My initial reaction was that the sky was falling. I was
ripping my hair out. I almost said a bad word on Twitter and Scott came to my rescue there, so
appreciate that. But a gentleman named Caleb Phillips actually responded to my tweet and sent
me an article about how Carrasco has dealt with this same thing in the past. In spring training,
around this time, I think it was mid-March of last year, where he deals with elbow inflammation.
So it might just be a thing for Carrasco.
We had the report from yesterday that he's late in arriving to camp because of some medical
procedures because he had leukemia.
So, Scott, at what point do we start to lower Carasco in the rankings?
Because I think we all like him, but this is pretty worrisome.
He's already a guy who slips beyond what I think he should.
So if this causes him to slip further, I'm going to be very excited to draft him.
So I'm not that worried.
I mean, I do remember him having past instances of this.
You know, you're ramping, you start ramping up for spring training.
It stands to reason there's going to be soreness.
I'm surprised we haven't heard about it for more pitchers yet.
I haven't heard any talk of him going in for like an MRI or anything.
So it doesn't, it doesn't sound like anything to really worry about.
I mean, obviously, it'll make you second guess when you go to pull the trigger on him in the draft room.
I think that's understandable.
But, you know, stay level-headed with it.
it's just soreness as far as we know, and soreness is to be expected.
Astro's pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley, will undergo Tommy John's surgery.
He will miss all of this season and likely part of next season as well.
Plus, the last time we saw him pitch, well, we didn't actually see him, but someone did in the minors back in 2019.
He had an ERA over seven, so he wasn't very good.
Chris, what does this mean for Forrest Whitley's dynasty value?
It's not good.
This is a guy who, what was it?
Are we going back to 2018 where we were expecting him to get called up?
Is my timing on that correct?
That was the time when he was the best pitching prospect.
Yeah, 28.
So, so.
He was longer ago than 2018.
I mean, he made it to AA in 2017.
And in 2018, he was definitely, he only made eight starts that season.
And he was definitely like a weekly feature or,
biweekly feature in Scott's Prospects watch call.
We were expecting for us to get called up any time then.
Now we're not going to see him until 2022 and probably not until, you know,
a little bit after the 2022 season gets started.
That's, yeah, less than ideal, but he'll still only be 24 years old.
You know, it's starting to feel a little Alex Reyes-ish,
but I'm starting to get excited about Alex Reyes again, you know, this season.
He's thrown really well so far in spring.
So it doesn't close the book on him, but this is, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
That is the phrase, 10-step is the way we say it.
And in Dynasty, it's really never all that great of an idea to invest in the 19th.
18-year-old pitcher who's tearing up high A.
Sometimes it works out, but those guys flame out harder than any other type of prospect.
Scott, would you try to acquire Fars Whitley for pennies on the dollar if you could right now in a dynasty league?
Is it pennies on the dollar?
Yeah, I mean, he's...
I'm normally going to give a pass to a pitcher who has Tommy John surgery just because it's...
It's so common and the track record of pitchers who return from it is, you know, pretty strong, pretty strong.
than picking up where they left off.
It's not 100%,
but it's pretty strong.
So if it's pennies on the dollar, sure.
I imagine, as of right now,
he'll be in my top 100 prospects,
again, going into next season.
And it's important to remember,
like, Lucas Gialito is a good example.
He himself was, at one point,
the top pitching prospect in baseball,
and looked like he was a total dud.
And then he figured it out later on,
and that could happen with Forrest Whitley, too.
So as long as we have reason
believe talent is still there, then you shouldn't, in a dynasty, from a dynasty's perspective,
you shouldn't entirely give up on it.
From one end that, oh, sorry.
Go ahead, Chris.
The, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect thing.
You know, that works both ways.
It also means that guys who you think are finished are never quite finished.
You know, they can figure it out.
It's, you know, not just about the volatility of starting pitching in a bad way.
It's also just these guys are unpredictable.
From one pitching prospect to another, Marlon's starting pitcher,
Sixto Sanchez will have an innings limit this season.
Sanchez has been delayed getting to camp following a false positive COVID test,
and there has been talk that he will not be ready for opening day.
So I hit up my buddy, Craig Mish,
and he reported that the inning's limit is likely to be around 150,
which I don't really think that's much of a limit anyway for young starting pitchers.
There's probably going to be a lot of pitchers.
around that range anyway.
But he also told me that 6th O Sanchez
will not be ready to pitch
in season until April 12th,
which would be the Marlins' 10th game of the season,
and that will come against the Atlanta Braves.
So I don't think it really changes much,
but for the first couple of weeks,
we might not have 6tho Sanchez out there.
Yeah, I, this is, like, the 150 innings limit
is not news to me.
Right.
They had never said that, but I'm working under the assumption
that looking at my rankings,
Tristan McKenzie, maybe Tyler,
Malley, Shoahotani,
Julio Urius,
Lance McCullors, maybe,
Denelson Lemaet, Pablo Lopez,
Jesus Lazzardo,
there's a lot of guys who I would be shocked
if they threw more than 150 innings,
even if they stay healthy.
That's just the reality of the, like Tyler
Glass now, I would be pretty surprised if
Tyler Glass now throws more than 150
innings. So that's just the reality
of the situation that
we're facing, but
you know, it makes those guys
less valuable relative to the guys who will throw 200 innings,
which might only be one person this year,
but maybe there's like eight or 10 who could actually do it conceivably.
But it makes them more valuable than 150 inning pitcher would normally be
because the total number of innings that you're going to have on your roto team,
that denominator, is going to be lower than any other year.
Joey Votto, Reds first baseman, has tested positive for COVID-Hillard.
be away from the team for at least 10 days while he waits to clear MLB's COVID protocols.
We have had some people email in and ask how we are handling COVID for this season.
So, Scott, are we doing anything differently from last year?
Should we carry over some of those things that we did?
Should we include more IL spots because there are inevitably going to be positive COVID test this season?
What happens if a player test positive midweek?
Should you be able to sub that player out?
What do you think, Scott?
I actually haven't thought about that so much
I never have a problem with having more IL spots
Tau Wars has infinite IL spots
and I haven't noticed really a negative impact for that
so I'm always in favor of that
if you know if you want to use the COVID thing as an excuse for it
that's fine yeah it's still been a significant issue
for the NBA so far this season and
you know I would guess you know
you listen to like public health officials and it sounds like maybe you know may i saw today
they're expecting like may will be when everybody is eligible to get the vaccine in new york so
you figure you know he herd immunity shouldn't be that far after that um right now that's that's
important too because like it may be an issue at the start of the season but as the season plays out
it'll become less of an issue to the point that it's almost no issue i would say that that's i think
it'll probably if it's an issue and it will be at some point
points. It shouldn't be by July.
Yeah. Cross your fingers. We're all hoping that sooner,
sooner the better that things get back to normal in the world and in Major League
Baseball. Luke Voight was scratched from Tuesday's Grapefruit League
lineup due to right knee sorens, but manager Aaron Boone wasn't too concerned
about the issue. So we'll see what happens with Luke Voight.
It got us orthotics, right? Was that something we talked about? Did he get
orthotics this offseason for the feet? Yep. Yep. Yep.
Because you think, you know, I had to get orthotics because of recurring ankle pain because of my feet.
It turns out.
So, you know, I just wonder, sore knees, I don't know.
Maybe it's entirely unrelated, but it crossed my mind.
Yeah, I mean, it was part of the reason why, at least early on in the draft season,
I was fading void for a little bit, but see what happens there.
Astros manager, Dusty Baker, said Wednesday that Miles Straw and Carlos Correa are the leading candidates to begin the season as the leadoff hitter.
obviously as the Miles Straw podcast here in 2021.
We were pretty excited about that possibility for him.
Carlos Correa's pretty weird.
It doesn't really strike me as a prototypical leadoff hitter.
I thought maybe Altuve would be in that mix,
even Alex Breggman because he walks so much.
But he's not that different from George Springer at this point in their careers.
Correa?
Yeah.
He doesn't walk as much.
Probably doesn't walk quite as much.
But you're still probably, I mean,
if he hits, he's going to have like a 370 on base percentage probably.
True, fair enough.
So, yeah, Correa.
I mean, if he leads off, he'll give you more run scored,
but we'll likely sacrifice some RBII for those who play in points leagues,
for those who play in Roto leagues.
But in points leagues, you'll get more played appearances.
So that can help Carlos Correa.
If you are watching on the video side, don't go anywhere.
If you are listening to the podcast, we are going to take a quick break.
But when we return, we have an update on our listener leagues.
So Chris asked for some Joey Gallo lyrics to cover the song,
song Shallow from A Star is Born. And we said we would give away a spot in the podcast
league to the best lyrics that we received. And we got a bunch. And I really do appreciate them all.
But the winner and the one that Chris ultimately went with were the lyrics from Sean Millerick.
I hope I got your name right. Milerick, question mark. Yeah. So the lyrics he sent in, Chris went on to sing
them and this is his best Lady Gaga impression. So please enjoy.
Like, he actually stings well at the beginning when he's doing the mail part, you know?
There was no chance that I was going to give him the Bradley Cooper part.
Like 100%.
That's fair.
That's fair.
It just, you started right at like, I really just like whiff on that first note.
Yeah, you butcher that one for sure.
Yeah.
No, it was fun.
That's how I spent my morning today.
My wife, my wife went out to the doctor and had the apartment by myself.
So that was how I spent my morning.
Oh, man.
Apologies to my neighbors.
I was just about to say,
I can only wonder what your neighbors were thinking
because that must have been something.
And for anyone who just listened to that,
or if you're watching and you heard it,
that song will be stuck in your head
for at least the next 24 hours.
So enjoy, because I've been seeing it all day long.
So great work there from, yep.
Oh, go ahead.
I want to go back to that discussion
of the baseball and spring training,
but whenever you,
you're ready. Oh yeah. I was I was going to say thanks again to Sean and yes. Thank you Sean.
So that was excellent. If you have an update on the baseball, go ahead, Chris. It's not an update on
the baseball so much as just so I went back and looked at spring training stats and obviously we're
only, you know, 10 days in or whatever, but spring training stats for 2021 through 2016. I took 2020 out
because it was just weird and you know, we don't know what the impact was. But, um,
I did total plate appearances minus strikeouts divided by, or home runs divided by that.
So just the share of balls in play that were home runs or balls that weren't strikeouts.
Sorry.
In 2021, it's 4.45%.
In 2019, it was 4.23%.
In 2018, it was 4.09%.
In 2017, it was 3.62%.
And in 2016, it was 3.45%.
and in 2016, it was 3.61%.
One, that fits in with the timetable that we've been talking about
if the spring training, you know, the baseball lags in spring training.
We didn't see a spring training home run jump until 2018.
There is, at least based on this,
there's no evidence that the baseball is carrying less here
based on how often home runs are being hit so far.
Maybe that will change as we move forward, but at least based on this extremely rudimentary, you know, statistical analysis, I would say that the spring training balls are not different so far.
Okay.
Okay.
So.
Or if they are different, there's no effect.
But they're probably just not different.
Yeah.
My assumption would be that they're not different, which means we won't know until, I mean, we'll know the first few days.
We'll have enough data points after like four or five total games.
because we'll have several hundred batted balls by that point.
But at least right now, we don't know what the effect will be.
My assumption is we'll see three to five percent reduction in home runs,
primarily tilted towards players who don't hit the ball as hard.
But that's just a guess.
Okay.
So let's update people on that.
The further that we go into spring training,
because obviously we'll have more data for every preceding week here.
as we lead up to the season.
Rankings Debates.
It only took us 40 minutes to get here,
but let's spend the rest of the show talking about them.
We'll mix and match some Roto
and some head-to-head points rankings.
And of course, you could find these rankings on the site,
CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball slash rankings.
That's it.
Ends there.
Okay, so let's start off,
let's start off with a head-to-head points one.
And up at the top, starting pitchers,
someone that Chris is pretty excited about,
and I feel like you have made this known.
Brandon Woodruff, who you have ranked as your 11th starting pitcher, Chris,
just behind Clayton Kershaw, and just ahead of Lance Lynn.
Wow, I did not realize you have Lance Lynn that high.
So that is interesting as well.
But we'll stick with Brandon Woodruff here.
In points.
Scott has Brandon Woodruff five spots behind here at SP 16.
So Chris, you will go first and explain why you were excited about Brandon Woodruff.
He's really good.
He throws hard.
He gets a lot of whiffs.
He gets a lot of strikeouts.
And the concern that I had about him last season,
the reason I was a little skeptical of his 2019 breakout
was he is bucking the trend of throwing fewer fastballs.
This is a league-wide trend that has been going on for a long time.
Last season, there were fewer fastballs thrown,
or a lower rate of fastballs were thrown than ever before,
at least in the pitch effects and stat-cast era.
He throws a lot of fastballs, but he gets a lot of whiffs with his fastball.
And last season, he upped his spin rate about 200 RPMs on average for his fastball,
which is a big deal when we're talking about one, any fastball,
but especially one that is thrown 96, 97 miles per hour.
It just spin rate is positively correlated with whiff rate for fastballs.
And he had, it's like a 29% whiff rate or something on his four-seem fastball last season.
That makes me think that his strike.
rate is more sustainable. He can be an elite strikeout guy even without, you know, elite breaking
pitches. And that makes his whole profile look a lot more sustainable. So I, um, I like Brandon Woodruff
a lot. He's going to pitch consistently deep into games, at least based on what we've seen over the last
two seasons. Um, you know, for me, part of it is that, you know, my number 10 pitcher and my number
a 16 pitcher are separated by 10 spots in the ranks.
So I've got seven pitchers in that 10 spot radius.
But I just also really like Brandon Woodruff.
I think he's really good.
And I don't think Scott dislikes him.
No, no.
When I made out these rankings initially,
which was like in October or something.
So I was, you know, didn't have anything to compare them to.
I presumed I was going to be one of the higher ones on Woodruff.
I will move him up one spot ahead of Carlos Carrasco.
It may be meaning to do that.
But I put Woodruff on the right side of the,
I call it the Lance Lynn line,
where basically everybody above the Lance Lynn line,
I expect to pitch deep into games with great ratios
and everybody below it.
You know, they're falling short in one of those areas or the other.
So Woodruff's on the right side of that.
It's really not a talent question.
The reason why he's toward the bottom end of that
is because he hasn't thrown more than like 120 innings
in a season since 20.
since 2016, I think, because of injuries.
And again, it's more important to me that he's going deep into games,
but it does seem possible that at some point they'll have to pull back on his,
on him, not so much start to start, but maybe like a Phantom Iylston.
Yeah, something like that.
So, you know, just a mild concern there.
But I love Brandon Woodruff, too.
Okay.
Yeah, so just a slight difference there in the rankings.
and just ahead of Woodruff for Scott.
He is Zach Gallen, Kent and Maida,
Walker, Bueller, and Jack Flaredy there in head-to-head points leagues,
but he still likes him.
Let's do one of these, let's do one of these rhodo ones.
And let's start with, you know, Scott,
I haven't really heard why you don't like Pablo Lopez,
even though I'm pretty excited about him,
and it sounds, I think Chris is as well.
But it seems like he, Paulo Lopez did everything last year
that should warrant more excitement from you.
Swinging strike rate goes up, very solid ERA,
pretty good command, solid strikeouts as well.
Yet, Scott, you have Pablo Lopez 48th
in your starting pitcher ranks in Roto,
and Chris has him all the way up at 36.
So why are you a little bit lower on Pablo Lopez, Scott?
I think he's just a mid-class pitcher,
and there's nothing wrong with that.
I mean, I'd take him as my number five guy.
Sure.
His swinging strike rate went up.
to a pretty good level,
but just a little more than a strikeout per inning.
His ex-fip 3.73.
You know, nothing special.
I think he pitches fairly deep into games,
but I just don't know that he has the potential to ascend
to be like a real high-end option.
And it might depend on his ability
to develop a breaking ball this spring.
It's something he's been working on,
but considering he doesn't even have a name
for the breaking ball yet, whether it's a slider or a curveball.
I'm not sure.
I'm not willing to trust it's going to be an actual weapon for him.
But it is something he's working on, and that could be a game changer.
As things stand now, I just think there's a limit to...
I look at his numbers and see limited ceiling there.
Yeah, Pablo Lopez could definitely benefit from using some type of breaking pitch last year.
He threw his cutter 8% of the time.
He threw his curbstle 7% of the time, but really relied heavily on his four seam and his sinker.
And a change-up, which is very good.
It's an awesome change-up.
I have compared it to a Luis Castillo light type change up,
but at least even Castillo has a slider to change,
you know, to change things up for opposing batters.
Pablo Lopez doesn't have that pitch as of now.
You know, Pablo Lopez just kind of gives me these Jose Barrios vibes.
He hasn't done it for as long as Burrios.
But if he, if he gives you, you know, a 37538 ERA
and a 1.20 whip with a strikeout per inning,
that's basically Jose Barrios.
and you're getting him 50 picks, 40 picks later than Burrios?
That's a solid comp.
I just think there's limit to Jose Barrios's upside too.
And I rank Barrios higher because he's a guy we've seen go eight innings
with some frequency the past few years.
And obviously we haven't seen that from Lopez yet.
But I think that's a fine comp for what Lopez could be.
Sure.
I think the difference is that workload.
you know, Burrios is, you know, when I said there are eight or ten guys who could conceivably,
possibly throw 200 innings this season, it might be more than that.
I haven't actually gone through, but Burrios is in that mix.
He's thrown 192 and 200 innings in 2018 and 2019.
If he gets to 200 innings this season, it wouldn't shock.
I don't think there's any way Pablo Lopez gets there.
He only threw more than, he only pitched more than six innings or pitched
six full innings or more four times last season.
I should clarify,
we've seen Burrios work into the eighth inning with regularity.
He hasn't actually made it a full inning,
eight innings that often.
Let's go back over to head to head points.
And look,
if you don't know why Scott likes Cabrienne Hayes at this point,
then you probably haven't listened to any of our podcast in the off season.
So we'll start off with Chris.
Chris, I don't know if you know this,
but you have Cabrion Hayes down at 22 in your third base ranks
in head-to-head points leagues.
Are you actually down on top?
him or is it just a product of the third base position?
Well, I would say if you don't know why I'm skeptical, more skeptical of Cabrion Hayes than Scott is,
you haven't been listening to the podcast lately.
I am, that's not.
I don't know if that came off as a shot against Scott.
No, it's just to say that I am more skeptical than Scott and more skeptical than I think
most people when it comes to the 2020 breakouts, especially when we're talking about guys who saw
significant jump in production like Brian Hayes did.
Obviously, we'd never seen him at the major league level before,
but he played at a much higher level than he ever had in the minors.
And so for me, it's just a little bit of a, you know,
let's see you do it again kind of thing.
So I understand why you'd rank guys like Josh Donaldson ahead of him.
Are you going to say Kyle Seeger?
is that the one?
Gio Orchella.
Yeah, I mean, the ones I...
That's the one that stands out.
To get them as far down as 22nd,
it means you have to put him behind
like Eduardo Escobar and Kyle Seeger
and Brian Anderson.
I know you're high on Brian Anderson,
but I think most people would look at those guys,
particularly from a head-to-head standpoint
where you don't go that deep into the draft pool
and say those are Jags,
while Brian Hayes has this, you know,
potential to explode and become something more than that.
I think that's fair.
I think it's underselling Brian Anderson a little bit.
I think he's potentially more than a jag.
He's got better batted ball data than I think he gets credit for.
His hard hit rate has been consistently above average.
His barrel rate has consistently been, you know,
quite a few points above average over the last couple of seasons.
So, like, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a 30-Homer season for Brian Anderson this season.
Where, and, you know, it's all relative, but he does play in a better line.
lineup. There should be more counting stats available for him. So I think I do have Cabrion Hayes
higher than that in Roto at third base. Yeah, I think I don't suspect. So yeah, I think you
had him 17th in Roto. So yeah, about five spots higher than in head to head points. Imagine
I think I could move him up. You know, that's one of those ones that I'm, I'm, you know,
Once you get past like 170, it's all kind of fungible.
Imagine having a worse lineup than the Marlins.
You just said Brian Anderson's in a better lineup than Brian Hayes.
And it's factual.
It's just, I mean, just imagine that.
It's name three pirates.
Go.
Gregory Polanco.
Jacob Stallings.
Are we sure those are real people?
In a standard size mixed league draft,
it's very likely just one pirate is being drafted.
Hey, maybe Richard Rodriguez, the closer.
But that's it.
I mean, Mitch Keller would be next maybe.
And some of the deeper drafts we've seen,
we've seen Gregory Polanco taken.
But yeah, it's bad.
You don't want opening day starter Stephen Brault on your team?
How dare you, Scott?
Let's jump over to Roto.
And someone who, I thought you guys both liked,
based on the way you talked about him in our pitching preview.
But Charlie Morton, Chris has him as his SP 29.
And Scott, you have him as your SP 38 in.
Roto. So why does he fall out of that
top 35, right? Scott, I think it ends with Dylan Bundy, where you want
five of those top 35. Why is Charlie Morton not inside of that?
Well, I mean, he didn't have a good year last year. And I have pointed out that
you know, after he spent some time on the IEL with the shoulder injury, he came back
throwing harder. And his numbers, regular season from that point in the regular season
through the playoffs were actually pretty good.
It was actually a lot like
prior to the shoulder injury.
So I was just
I really wanted to see how he looked this spring
and so far
he's aren't rave reviews. He looks really good.
So I'm due to move him up some
but I like...
Okay, so he needs to go ahead of Patrick Corbyn
who's not throwing his...
His velocity's still down the spring and I wanted to see
what he'd do too.
Not rave reviews so far.
At least me being the reviewer.
So I'll move him ahead of Patrick Corbett.
But then beyond that, you get to, like, Lance McCullors,
Jesus Lazzardo, 6-2-Sand.
These are really good pitchers, I think.
I don't know.
I don't know.
Why do you have them ahead of those guys, Chris?
In particular, like, looking at McCullors,
I think the best version of Patrick or Charlie Morton
is better than the best version of Lance McCullors.
The best version of Lance McCullors.
I don't think we've seen the best version of Lance McCullors yet,
to be clear.
That's fair.
He's on my breakout list for this year.
That's fair.
He's just consistently been a relatively high ERA guy.
Not four plus, but usually in the high threes.
I would guess if we saw the best versions of both of them,
based on what we've seen so far, at least,
Charlie Morton would be better in...
Yeah, I mean, at least three and probably four of the categories.
Charlie Morton was a Cy Young contender in 2019.
Yeah, he was a top.
12 starting very old and he had a he had he's very old and he had a he was known it for being brittle
before that year that was really the one year where he ramped up his workload like an ace and then
he had shoulder problems the next year so that factors into thinking too i mean mcculler's no model
of health himself right um yeah i don't know i need to think about that some more i could see moving mccullers
i mean i'm sorry i could see moving morton up as high as like 30 i can't see him moving him ahead
of Chris Paddock, let's say.
That was exactly the name I was looking at.
He's one spot ahead of Chris Paddock for me in the overall ranking.
Boo.
Boo, Chris.
I also think Chris Paddock is still a curveball away from being the best version of himself.
And the version that we saw in 2019, it's not shocking that he wasn't as good in 2020.
I didn't think he would be as bad as he was, but the peripherals in 2019 did not support
the borderline ace production
or the way he was being drafted.
But it helps to know he's got the spin rate
on his fastball way up
and he looked into that this off season.
I have a lot of hope for a Chris Battick bounce back.
And yet I do think he overperformed a little in 2019.
But it is funny that Scott has,
I am nine spots higher in the starting pitching ranks
on Morton and I'm nine spots higher
in the overall ranks than,
skies.
Which just shows you the distribution of hitters and pitchers in our respective ranks.
Right.
One of those names that you brought up, Scott, was Gary Sanchez.
You took him in your top word draft, and you have him fourth in your catcher rankings
in head-to-head points.
Chris, you have them all the way down at number 12 in your catcher ranks.
Chris, we will start with you.
Why so low on El-Garri?
I mean, you know, all of it, everything, you know, the way his career has gone.
I think is a pretty good argument.
Head to head points is not his best format.
And this is another situation where the difference between number 12 and number 7 at catcher for me is very slim in head to head points leagues.
But I think there are legitimate issues with his swing.
And it's not the kind of thing where if I see him have a good couple of weeks in the spring,
it's going to change how I view it because he's a heavily timing-based.
batter. You know, he's got a big leg kick. He's got, um, you know, a lot of moving parts. And
that's how he generates so much power. And he is one of the elite power hitters in baseball,
not just at the catcher position on a per plate appearance basis. He's, you know, as good as just
about anyone. But I don't, I don't know where this idea, though, that, oh, man, his career has been,
like in 2019, he was the second best catch catcher in fantasy points per game. In 2017, he was
the best catcher in fantasy points per game.
I did skip 2018.
It was another bad year.
But even that, like, it was bad relative to the majority of his career.
But it's not like he was not a starting caliber catcher in head-to-head points leagues.
It looks like he had, yeah, even in 2018, when he hit 186, his power production was so good
that he was the third best catcher in head-to-head points per game.
I think he's fine for this format.
Okay, that's better than I gave him credit for then.
And I wasn't saying his career's been bad.
It's just been he's been extremely inconsistent.
And he's had a lot of trouble staying healthy.
He's never played more than 122 games.
Yes, he's a catcher, so there's a relatively high ceiling.
But even that 2017 season, I'm pretty sure there was an I-L stint mixed in there at some point.
It's more like if I moved Gary Sanchez up to seventh and, you know,
you know, swapped him with Austin Nola.
I could do that.
I don't feel super strongly about it.
It's more in a head-to-head points league.
I just, I'm not going to make Gary Sanchez a big priority.
And if I miss out on him this year as a result of that, I'm okay with that.
But it is like what I see from him this spring where he doesn't look helpless at the plate.
He's hitting bombs again.
you know, that was, if not for that,
I wouldn't have taken him in the 13th round of Tau Wars.
Now, I think Chris would even take him in the 13th round
of a 15-team league, right?
Yeah, that's fine.
It was as much the value I liked there as the spring performance,
but it was the intersection of those two factors
as opposed to just one on its own.
And the thing I always struggle with with the, like,
he's looked good in the spring so far is,
I guarantee we could find a seven-game stretch last season
where he had four strikeouts and three home runs or something similar to that.
So it's just like I said before, it's not the kind of thing, given how out of whack he's
gotten at various points in his career where, oh, he's had a good two weeks.
I feel confident in him moving forward.
I think the inconsistency is part of the package until he proves otherwise.
He's also in the best shape of his life, Chris, which I don't know.
I don't know that you've taken that into your...
That's fair.
I'm not taking that into account.
I'm looking at the game long.
I don't think there was a seven game or a four-game stretch where he's...
What was it?
A seven-game stretch where he struck out just four times?
It doesn't appear so.
There was a seven-game stretch where he struck out six times.
But yeah, he'd still hit 10-home runs.
But the strike area was just absurd for him last year.
It was crazy.
And if you want some top-notch fantasy analysis,
every odd year, Gary Sanchez has been awesome.
So just saying, just saying.
He had three different seven game stretches last year
with five strikeouts.
Okay, so that's progress.
That's, Chris, this is what we're looking for in the spring.
We're looking for progress, and that's what we've gotten.
How did you find that so quickly?
Fancraft's rolling game logs, baby?
I'm telling you, Chris.
I'm telling you, Chris is a wizard.
All right, we only have time for one more.
So among these, RodeGives.
discrepancies. Who do you guys want to talk about most?
Trent Grisham, Victor Robles, James
Karenchak, and Raphael Montero.
I don't think the reliever
ones matter all that much.
Scott and I have Maynard. I'm really curious why you have
Montero so high, but that's fine.
Probably, probably Grisham, right?
I think Grisham,
we've talked a lot about Grisham.
I've said my Grisham thing a lot,
but we can do it again.
What was the other, what was the other non-reliever one?
Victor Robles.
Victor Robles.
Scott hates Victor Robles, man.
It's just boring.
That's fine.
We'll be talk about Victor Robles.
I think they might be very similar players this season.
I think Victor Robles has a higher stolen base ceiling.
And that's what we're very interested in in 2020.
I mean, Grisham looks like a 30 steel guy himself.
Maybe Robles could be a 40 steel guy, but we've never seen that from him.
I have real concerns about how each of those guys,
Victor Robles and
Trent Grisham
how their bats are going to play
and I have
Trent Grisham higher than Victor Robles
but
as you should
there yes
there are
like Victor
or Trent Grisham
I'm not convinced he can hit lefties
at an adequate
enough level to
not face
you know either being moved down in the lineup
or possibly even being platoon that is a team that has
a ton of capable players
that they could swap in
and out of the lineup.
So I think there's some risk there.
And it seems like
Trent Grisham is one of those players
for whom a lot of people are treating it
as if 2020 was the first time we saw him in the majors
and not roughly half of his major league career so far.
He played 51 games in 2019.
He hit six home runs,
had one stolen base
that seems to be a
brewer's thing.
But he has 738 OPS.
He hit 231.
I think there is more risk
in Trent Grisham being
like a 240 hitter
with 15 home runs
than the consensus
seems to give him
credit for.
He had a high and feeling
30 bases.
I don't know that that's a disaster.
I don't think 30 steals is going to happen.
Oh, 25.
I mean,
yeah, he was on a 25.
five steal pace last year, but that was with only one caught stealing.
I would point out, too, like you complain about the weak contact for Trink Grisham, like you do for
Kevin Bigeo.
Kevin Bishio's expected stats because of his quality contact were microscopic.
I mean, he looks like a slap hitting nothing.
But Grisham, as good as he was last year, he actually underperformed his expected stats.
He underperformed his expected batting average.
He underperformed his expected slug.
I'm not saying the expected stats of the end-all be-all, but I'm saying,
and the quality of contact he made last year,
according to stat cast,
was good enough to earn him even better numbers
than he actually had.
So that's a big reason why I don't share your concerns.
And, you know, obviously he dominated.
And like, his minor league stats were awesome.
Grishams were.
So, that's the yes and no.
I think it was mostly.
He dominated it for 34 games.
The most recent.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Uh, double A, he had a 768 OPE.
Yes. I think he's going to get on base at time.
I don't usually look at full minor league career stats
because obviously players are changing throughout their minor league career.
But that's fair. It is factual.
It's just the case for him,
he took this big leap in 2019 in the minors.
And then in the majors, he wasn't that great.
Okay, maybe he was acclimating.
He took another leap in 2020.
That's all possible.
I think there are enough red flags.
And I'm not saying I don't like him.
I have him as a top 30 outfielder.
That's really high.
It's just, I mean, I have enough questions about whether he's, one,
I just don't think he's going to hit for batting average.
I think he's going to be like a 240 to 250 guy.
And I'm not counting on him being an elite stolen base guy.
My expectation is more like 15 steals.
It's very fast and the Padres love to run.
And he's going to get on base a lot.
because of those walks, whether he hits well or not,
he's going to get on base a lot.
And he's leading off for one of the best lineups in baseball.
So we don't know if he's leading off.
If we get a guarantee that he's going to be leading off every day,
I will move him up because that is...
He's going to at least lead off against righties,
wouldn't you agree, Chris?
He did so last year.
Why wouldn't he this year?
Probably.
Yeah, I would assume so.
But that's still, you know, only 65 to 70% of the games.
And if he's batting eighth against lefties,
or if he's losing playing time against lefties.
It's not that I don't see the upside
that everyone else does because I do.
It's that there is more downside than, like,
we're drafting him like 70th overall right now.
I agree that's a lot.
Some people might not be factoring in the downside
because I see what you were saying
with the infield fly ball rate in particular
is something that I don't like about him.
16% last year.
That was pretty high.
But everything,
he hits a lot of line drives.
He's been adequate against lefties
so far in his career.
And even if it's only against right-handed pitching,
if he's leading off 65% of the time
for the Padres lineup
and 35% of the time he's betting eighth,
he's still going to score 90-plus runs,
maybe even 100-plus.
I've made this comparison before
with Kyle Tucker.
Kyle Tucker might bet seventh for the Astros.
He can easily move up.
I realize that,
but I just don't see a huge difference
between Kyle Tucker and Trent Grisham,
and people have so much more confidence in Tucker than Thank you,
Kyle Tucker is a much better hitter.
It's certainly a better power hitter, I would say.
I do address the Roebbler.
Much better.
Because I do need to move Robles up
if he's for sure batting Lidoff Victor Robles
for the Nationals as it seems to be trending that way.
But I don't get this assumption
that he's suddenly going to be a transformed player.
I know obviously he had the great prospect pedigree,
but he hasn't looked like a good hitter in the majors.
He looked like an especially bad hitter last year, small sample, whatever.
He's been striking out a lot this spring,
so I'm not really seeing transformation having happened here.
Like, even if he starts out in the lead-off spot,
I'm not confident he's going to keep it.
So I get him as like a steals play,
but to me there's not a huge difference between him and, like,
Laoti Tavares, if that's all you're drafting him for.
I think part of it is his stolen base attempt pace
while batting first or second in his career
I think it's I wrote this down the other day
it's like 45 or 50
that can't be a very large sample
it's like 40 something games
is that a large sample I don't know
sound like a large sample
for
Victor Robles' career.
52 games batting either first or second.
He has 17 steals in those 52 games.
Correct.
Yeah.
So,
so that is like a...
Like, if he hits well enough to keep the lead off spot,
and obviously that pace becomes the new standard for him,
all right.
I guess he's another at Alberto Mondesie.
Yeah, I don't think he's out of American Mondesie.
I have no confidence in that.
Like, he still does not...
I still have no...
evidence he's a good hitter, except for he was a big prospect once upon a time.
Yeah, I'm not counting on him being a good hitter.
I think his career line, 250, 320, 407, I think that's perfectly attainable.
And if they're okay with that from the leadoff spot, you know, he could be a 35 steel guy.
And that's the biggest thing for me is just with how much we're pushing steals up,
give me the guy who legitimately does have 30 plus stolen base potential.
I don't think Trent Grisham does.
But I have Trent Grisham very well-minded.
I have Trent Grisham ranked higher.
comparison.
Sure.
I do have
Trent Grisham
ranked higher.
Okay.
But neither is
as high as
Byron Bucks.
Oh my gosh.
That's a topic
for another day.
I think Chris has him
all the way up at like
SP Outfield der 20
in Roto.
So I appreciate
the consistency there.
Chris.
The last thing I will say
put a ball on all of this
is that I,
and this comes from
someone who likes Grisham,
I do think that
we're probably not
factoring in his
downside enough
into his average draft position.
And I think it's
the complete opposite
for Victor Robles.
If he's leading
off of the national,
I don't think that we're factoring in his upside enough based on where he's being drafted right now.
We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.
I am Frank Bigel over listening and watching fantasy baseball today.
We'll be back again tomorrow with a live head-to-head points mock draft.
Bye-bye.
