Fantasy Baseball Today - Rankings Risers/Fallers, Pitcher Questions & the Drop-O-Meter! (6/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: June 13, 2024

Reese Olson has been clobbered in June (3:20)! ... Jackson Merrill blasted two home runs (6:08). ... Jose Soriano is pitching well (10:52). ... The Twins put up 17 runs on the Rockies (14:52). ... Ne...ws (22:02): Kyle Tucker will not be back on Friday. ... Who are our latest rankings risers and fallers (25:08)? ... Jake Irvin continues to pitch well and Cade Povich had a great start (40:35). ... Let's fire up the Drop-O-Meter for Javier Assad and Walker Buehler (49:22). ... Is Jesse Winker a must-add hitter (54:06)? ... Is the Michael King breakout back on (1:00:40)? ... We wrap up with leftovers, bullpen updates and streamers (1:03:55). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: https://sptfy.com/QiKv Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi Follow FBT on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1 Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:03 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Well, fantasy! Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello, welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Thursday, June 13th. I am Frank Sanfell, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers.
Starting point is 00:00:35 Today on the show, we have rankings, risers, and fallers. I have questions about three starting pitchers. hitters who've turned their seasons around, and much more. Let's jump in. Oh, my goodness. Holy cow, do you believe it? All right, Scott, what made you say,
Starting point is 00:00:53 holy cow, do you believe it? On Wednesday. Well, in a year when pitching has been so prevalent, it's the bad pitching performance that catches my attention the most, especially when it happens twice in a row, and that's what's happened for a certain, Reese Olson, who I have mostly spoken highly of this year, continually called him under-roastered,
Starting point is 00:01:18 have continually included him among my sleeper pitchers, including this week going against the Nationals lineup. But it did not go well. He gave up five runs for earned in five-and-a-third innings, ten hits to walks three strikeouts. It was bad. This was his second straight start allowing double-digit hits. He now has a 1034 ERA and three June starts, taking his season ERA from 192 to 368. And clearly has some things he needs to work on here. It's clearly having some issues.
Starting point is 00:01:54 Now, the knock on Rees Olson was that he doesn't have a particularly good fastball, but I thought it wouldn't be such a big deal, A, because he doesn't overuse the fastball. He throws it about an equal. measure with his slider and change up two secondary offerings that both have better than a 40% whiff rate. Usually if you have one pitch with a 40%
Starting point is 00:02:18 whiff rate, it's really good news. He has two. But you know, it was working for a while. Even when it was working, he wasn't getting a lot of strikeouts though. I don't know if he needs to throw the fastball even less. I don't know exactly what's wrong. I'm not a pitching coach. There's really no reason for me
Starting point is 00:02:34 to speculate. What my role here is It's to say that, got to pump the brakes on Reese Olson. I'm going to stop recommending him for the time being. If you need to free up a roster spot, I think it's totally fine to drop him. Nobody's picking him up after these last two starts. It was a struggle to get people to pick him up when he had a sub 2ERA.
Starting point is 00:02:57 And, you know, maybe he'll turn things around, but he's given you an excuse to try something else. And he was going to be part of a dropometer segment, bit later on, you pretty much just hit on it, Scott. But if you had to rate it 1 to 10, is it all the way up to a 10? You can drop Reese Olson for anybody? Well, rarely do I go to the extreme. And I probably won't hear either.
Starting point is 00:03:22 Let's call it an 8. I think I would not drop Rees Olson in a deeper league, like a 15-team Roto League, where there's peanuts on the waiver wire. Like, I still think the odds are better than not that Rees Olson will be a positive fantasy contributor from this point forward. But in shallower leagues, the kinds most people play in where roster space is always scarce. Like I said, I think you have an excuse now to try out someone else. And we will get to waiver wire pitchers a little bit later on.
Starting point is 00:03:50 So we'll compare and contrast. Do we drop Rees Olson for this player? That player will get to that in a little bit. Chris, you are up. Player of the Night. Jackson Merrill, who it's a weird player to talk about this season because if we grade on the curve, of 20 years old when he made his major league debut, played 46 games at AA last season and never played at AAA.
Starting point is 00:04:19 He's having a really good season, even before his two homers on Wednesday. He was basically a league average hitter. He's been a fine base runner. He's been a pretty good defensive player. Having a really nice season given the circumstances. But you don't get fantasy points for, overcoming the odds or however you want to put it.
Starting point is 00:04:42 And so the question has been, can Jackson Merrill turn an interesting skill set, which primarily has been very contact oriented into something more viable for fantasy. And seeing him hit two home runs today, one of them was 99, 99 mile an hour, exit velocity wasn't exactly crushed, but still,
Starting point is 00:05:04 I do think it's worth noting. and additionally worth noting that he has been one of the bigger underperformers in baseball this year based on his expected stats. Jackson Merrill came into today with a 299 expected batting average was top 5% in Major League Baseball and a 467 expected slugging percentage. That's a 167 expected ISO compared to entering today a 110 ISO. So if you are a believer, actually that's after today, a 110 ISO. So if you are a believer in the validity and utility of those stats, I think Jackson Merrill's a buy. And I tend to be a believer in the validity and utility of those stats.
Starting point is 00:05:52 So I am saying by Jackson Merrill. I think most people are still believers as well because he's 83% rostered. Yeah, it's kind of surprising. Everything has been there to drop Jackson Merrill. He's not playing against every single lefty, so he's sitting out here there. And the overall production, I think you hit it right. It's like he's been a great baseball player for the circumstances, right? Like just being thrown in there, learning a new position.
Starting point is 00:06:19 Like, he's been a great real-life baseball player. It hasn't translated much to fantasy yet. He's been awesome in the outfield for the most part too. Yeah. So the last time we talked about Jackson Merrill, or at least the last time I talked about him, I was saying you could consider dropping him in part because he just wasn't playing that much anymore. I think it was exactly a week ago.
Starting point is 00:06:38 He was one of my rankings movers a week ago, moved outside my top 25 at shortstop. And he has started against the last three left teams. He's only sat one game in June so far, I think. Yeah, so he's been playing a lot more. And I would say from a developmental standpoint, his rookie season has been very encouraging. I still don't know that there's a ton of fantasy utility for it because it's so batting average focus. His whole approach is it's a very up-the-middle line-drive focused approach.
Starting point is 00:07:13 And I'm not sure a two-homer game changes that particularly since one of the homers, as he pointed out, Chris, was kind of a cheapie. If it does change, then obviously great. But I'm not, you know, this was an issue for Jackson Merrill coming up through the miners, too, is they were working on optimizing his launch angle to deliver power. And I don't think you ever quite got there in the miners. The numbers don't suggest he did. And so far as rookie seasons played out similarly. So, you know, is Jackson Merrill more usable in fantasy than David Hamilton, for instance,
Starting point is 00:07:49 who's playing about as often for the Red Sox? He's contributing a lot of stolen bases. He is overperforming his stat-cast numbers. but while Jackson Merrill is not contributing much power or speed, David Hamilton's contributing about the same amount of power and more speed. So, yeah, I don't know that I'm as, I see, I see I have as much optimism for Merrill as you guys, just strictly talking from a rest of season perspective.
Starting point is 00:08:24 But the fact that he's playing more. than he seemed to be a week ago, I think is the most encouraging aspect of all this. I think the biggest thing for me is just you were probably considering dropping him. I think it's fine not to now. Oh my goodness gracious, for me, is going to be Jose Soriano,
Starting point is 00:08:45 who just wrapped up a great start at the debacks where he went eight plus innings. He actually started the ninth. He was going for a complete game. He allowed two runs, five hits, two walks, five strikeouts had 12 whiffs on 97 pitches. The last two starts, he's really leaned more into his sinker, which part of the reason why we haven't seen as many strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:09:07 It's a weird profile because he throws extremely hard. He has an amazing curveball, and you would expect him to get more strikeouts, and he does just based on how hard he throws and having that really good secondary pitch. He only threw the curveball 16% in this start. I really wish that he would use that curveball more. But we were talking beforehand and kind of joking around, like, looking at his numbers,
Starting point is 00:09:33 it's very Framber Valdez-esque, right? He doesn't have the track record of a Framber Valdez, but a 61% ground ball rate. You know, he's doing a good job limiting run so far. It's a 348 ERA, a 118 whip. Jose Soriano is 35% rostered. Should that number be higher? Yeah, probably. I don't know that he needs to be 60% rostered. but he's highly usable. And the relief pitcher eligibility makes him especially usable in points leagues. And I think the Framber Valdez comp is a pretty good one. The biggest issue is walks.
Starting point is 00:10:14 I'd like to see Jose Soriano walk fewer. But that was a problem for Framber Valdez early in his career, too. The elite ground ball skills are a pretty strong selling point, 60% walk rate for Soriano. Grand ball rate. Yeah, sorry, ground ball rate. He has, I mean, he throws a lot harder than Framber Valdez, and he has a wide arsenal of pitches.
Starting point is 00:10:42 So in some ways, comparing him to Framber Valdez, I wonder if it undersells the upside, which I don't know. Maybe I don't want to say that because obviously Framber Valdez has been a really good fantasy pitcher for the past few years. How could you get much better? It's unrealistic to think Soriano's going to be better than that. But there are a lot of tools here, I think, beyond just the ground ball rate that make me optimistic about Soriano's future. Chris, would you drop Reese Olson for Jose Soriano? Yeah, I think I would. I think that's fine. There are other pitchers who pitch tonight who are somewhat widely available that I think I would prioritize.
Starting point is 00:11:25 over him. I would rather have Jake Irvin, I think, who is 65% rostered. But yeah, I think
Starting point is 00:11:33 Soriano versus Olson is an interesting one in Soriano's benefit. And I'm not sure that I would. If I had to start somebody next week,
Starting point is 00:11:46 I don't have the matchups in front of me, but I presume I'd rather start Soriano than Olson next week. But, yeah,
Starting point is 00:11:53 they're close in the rankings. And Irvin would be close to them too. So it's the sort of thing where it's hard to be committal. I think if we're pointing out things I like about those three pitchers, the thing I like the most about any of those three pitchers is that Olson has the two pitches with better than a 40% whiff rate. So that's why, like if we're assessing from a rest of season perspective, I'm probably going to put Olson ahead.
Starting point is 00:12:20 But in the short term, he's unusable. So I get it. I want to give an honorable mention to Corey C. In his first game back in Dodger Stadium, technically second. He was in Dodgers Stadium on Tuesday, but he didn't play in that game. He hit a go-ahead three-run homer off his former teammate, Walker Bueller. So the drama lives on with Corey Seeger and the Dodgers. Oh my goodness gracious lineup of the day.
Starting point is 00:12:43 I did this yesterday. I feel like any time we just get a massive team performance, I should probably just do something like this. But the Twins, they scored 17 runs on 24 hits. Royce Lewis continues to crush the ball since returning three for five with his fifth home run he added three runs and two RBI Carlos Correa five for six
Starting point is 00:13:04 five single no extra base hits in this one but impressive nonetheless three runs scored he's quietly hitting 290 with an 815 OPS Willie Castro three for five with his fifth home run and Carlos Santana went three for five with a double and four RBI last 30 games
Starting point is 00:13:21 for Santana he's batting 289 six homers, 20 RBI, and an 881 OPS. Lots of names here, Chris, would you be looking at, like, do you think Willie Casher needs to be more than 63% rostered or Santana more than 13%? If one of them is under-roastered, it's probably Santana. But I don't think there needs to be a high priority in adding either of them. Like, Castro, the biggest thing is she's not running very much. and that was such a big part of his game last season. The quadrupa eligibility really helps his appeal,
Starting point is 00:13:59 but even then, I think 63% roster is probably fine, because I don't know if he matters much in points leagues. So, Santana at 13%, maybe that should be 24%. But I don't think either of them should be necessarily a high priority. My biggest takeaway from this offensive
Starting point is 00:14:20 explosion for the twins was Carlos Correa going 5 for 6. So now he's batting 290, which looks a lot better than the 271 he was batting coming in. And yet his expected batting average is 286. It's closer
Starting point is 00:14:36 to where it is now after the 5-8 game. It's 90th percentile to go along with a 77th percentile X slug. Carlos Correa's stack has pages all lit up in red, but it's certainly doesn't feel like he's
Starting point is 00:14:52 that caliber of player anymore. It's empty. He has five homers and zero steals. It's just empty. Yeah. Yeah. And so it's like is it kind of Zander Bogartzy? Except Bogart's at least last year was running. Bogart's was still good. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's pretty useful in a points league though. Yeah. And even in a roto league as a middle infielder, I think Carlos Correa is totally fine. You know, you look at the run in RBI numbers, which have been the
Starting point is 00:15:19 biggest problem for him in the past couple of years, even when he's been healthy. You remember 20, 22, he had a really nice season. It was like an 823 OPS, 291 average, 22 homers. Only 134 combined runs in RBI that year. This year, if we give him 150 game pace, he's played 50 games now. Let's just make the math easy. And I'm going to have to do a little bit of math in my head. So Meesey may be overstating it.
Starting point is 00:15:45 But I believe it's 84 runs and 84 RBI combined. or 84 runs and 84 RBI pace for 150 games. That's not great, but it's pretty good. Like, I think I expect more than a 15 homer pace for Carlos Correa the rest of the way. I'd put it more at 20. Yeah. And then you start looking at the run and RBI numbers. And it's like, well, if you can be an 85 run and RBI guy and he can hit 280 and he can hit 20 home runs,
Starting point is 00:16:16 it's not a superstar, but that's a pretty useful player, even without any speed. Yeah, especially in this environment. 280, 20, 85, 85, that'd be a pretty good player. So, Carlos Correa doing some things right now. He's not available. I don't think. No, 92% roster. So if you have him, I think just stick with him because he's playing pretty well.
Starting point is 00:16:36 And also, we've, we've hit this one before, but man, Royce Lewis. It just five homers and nine games. That sounds right. He has played since the end of the 2019 season, 132 games total. That's across every, well, I guess it's 140 if you include the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:16:58 That he is doing all of this after tearing his ACL twice, missing the entire 2020 season with no competitive games because of COVID, missing the entire 2021 season because of that torn ACL. Like, it's just, it's remarkable what he's doing. and I know the underlying numbers don't entirely back it up. This is one of those situations where I kind of just take the surface level numbers as at more or less face value, despite the small sample size
Starting point is 00:17:29 and despite the underlying not quite backing it up just because the degree of difficulty here is just it's higher than I think anyone in baseball. Yeah. He's not going to hit at this pace, but I agree with you that if there was a player that's going to outperform their expected numbers. It's that freak athlete outlier, you know, former top prospect in baseball. And so with that, I do give Royce Lewis the benefit of the doubt.
Starting point is 00:17:54 It's just stay on the field. That's the last part that we need to see from Royce Lewis. Thanks for watching. Everyone here, hit the like button if you haven't already. Subscribe to the channel. YouTube.com slash fantasy baseball today. And if you enjoy the audio podcast, make sure to leave us a five-star rating and review
Starting point is 00:18:12 on Apple and Spotify. It helps a lot, and we really do appreciate it. Let's take our first break, and when we return, we'll hit the news and notes. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back in, the news and notes. The Astros announced that Kyle Tucker is not expected to be ready to return from the IL on Friday.
Starting point is 00:18:29 He's dealing with that chin contusion has yet to resume baseball activities. As we learn more, we will keep you updated. Garrett Cole will make his next rehab start Friday at AAA. When Aaron Boone was asked if this will be Cole's final rehab start, he said, quote, we'll see. All right.
Starting point is 00:18:45 Yoshinobu Yamamoto's next start will be pushed back from Thursday to Saturday against the Royals. I was listening to the Dodgers broadcast. They brought up the fact that his last start out, emotional start in Yankee Stadium. The velocity was up, so they wanted to give him a little bit extra rest between starts. And so Yamamoto is starting this Saturday instead. Corey Seeger returned to the Rangers lineup after missing four straight with that left hamstring injury. Mentioned he hit the three-run Homer. Edwin Diaz,
Starting point is 00:19:12 will immediately become the Mets closer upon his activation on Thursday. Jack Flaherty said he's feeling better and has been clear to start Saturday against the Astros. Andres Munoz had an MRI and bone scan on his back comeback clean, but he received an injection to address the lingering soreness. Brian Wu's MRI came back perfectly clean
Starting point is 00:19:34 and he could be reinserted into the Mariners rotation as early as next week. This one is still just so weird. the start of the season, first six weeks or so with that elbow inflammation, we hear between starts here and there that the arm doesn't feel right. He goes for an MRI and just everything's perfect. Seems a little weird. And he's certainly pitching well. He has like a 0.5 whip.
Starting point is 00:20:00 Yes. I will just say given how fastball heavy he has had to be to succeed. He's starting like, this is like 80%? fastballs or something. Yeah, 80% fastballs. When you combine, I think, four seam and sinker together. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:18 And like his fastball doesn't have like a Bryce Miller whiff rate. It's 24% with the four seamer. And given all of the injury concerns here, this feels like one of the more clear cells. If anyone's buying. Obviously, they can also click the little red cross next to his name and see that he has had a lengthy concerning history of, injuries so far.
Starting point is 00:20:43 Updating the ranks on Wednesday, I had no idea where to put Brian Wu because on a per ending basis, he's, he's been awesome. I just, I have no idea how this is going to end for him. Yeah. Kodi Sena will throw two more bullpen sessions before progressing to face hitters. Randy Rosarena has missed two straight with right hamstring tightness. Astros manager, Joe Espada, expects Yiner Diaz to be available to return to the lineup on Friday. Joey Ortiz has missed two straight with a right hamstring issue.
Starting point is 00:21:12 Jason Dominguez was reinstated from the 60-day IL but optioned to AAA as expected. And the Dodgers acquired Kevin Bizio from the Blue Jays and threw him right in the lineup at third base on Wednesday. Miguel Vargas was optioned back to AAA. Let's talk rankings, risers, and followers. As always, you could find our rankings at CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball slash rankings. Long link, as always. We got to find a way to shorten that thing down. There's a drop down.
Starting point is 00:21:42 where you can find it pretty easily right there at the top of the page. Yeah. Scott has an article that comes out every Wednesday, which highlights his rankings, risers, and followers. And we will start there. And also links to the rankings page. So you can find it all over the place.
Starting point is 00:21:55 You can find it everywhere. It's very easy to find the rankings. Scott, who are some of the biggest movers for you? Well, for the second straight week, I'm here to tell you there is a new number one outfielder. And in my mind,
Starting point is 00:22:08 number one overall player as well. And it's Aaron. Judge. It's Aaron Judge. I think I mentioned this a few days ago, but in case you missed that one or you were zoning out as I was saying it, I think what we're seeing from Aaron Judge this year is awfully reminiscent of 2022. Not just that, oh, he's hitting a lot of home runs, but he is the player best suited, most optimized to maintain his usual production in an environment. where hitting is suppressed, like 2022. All he did in 2022 was hit more home runs ever for someone without steroid ties. He hits 16 more home runs than anyone else. He is such an outlier, specifically for barrel rate. You know, the exit velocities are huge and all of that stuff.
Starting point is 00:23:04 But specifically for barrel rate, the most optimized exit velocity and launch angle on context, so far ahead of everybody else. that he's kind of immune to the big swings we see and how the ball is performing from year after year. And so in a year like this, where the ball doesn't seem to be carrying very well, where home run production is down across the league, that's going to allow Judge to separate himself further from the pack.
Starting point is 00:23:35 And that 2020 season, he was far and away. He was about as distant to number one in fantasy as Ronald de Kuhna was last year. And, you know, right now he's got a five-homer advantage over number two. Gunner Henderson. But I think, I expect Gunner-Henderson's pace will slow some because it's like over a 50 homer pace. But judges may not. And, you know, he could, if he stays healthy, he could end up being just as distant of a number one this year.
Starting point is 00:24:02 So I moved him up. I moved Bailey Ober down. I dropped him outside of my top 60. His ERA is over five now. still does a good job of limiting base runners low whip but he is susceptible to home runs I think the ERA is going to be better than five but in a pitching rich environment like this
Starting point is 00:24:24 you got a guy who doesn't get many strikeouts doesn't work deep into games consistently and has a home run issue unlike few pitchers do it just it seems like he's he should be on the fringes of roster ability. And so that's where I've moved him in by rankings, dropping him outside the top 60, like I said. That's Bailey Ober. And finally, Garrett Cole here. You mentioned Frank. He's making what could be his last rehab start. Maybe he has one more after that, but he's close. He's close to returning. I'm not sure this is enough of a move up considering I have him 31st in my starting pitcher rankings, which to put that in perspective that has him ahead of the middle. Bryce and Bobby, Ryan Pepio, Kyle Braddish, Carlos Rodon. It has him behind.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Framber Valdez, Graye, Tanner, Hoc, Sunny Gray, Luis Heel. Who would you rather have the rest of the way? Garrett Cole or Louise Heel? Yeah, we did this last time. And look, there's only five, there are only five spots apart in my rankings. So it's not like I can say with a lot of conviction one or the other. but given that we don't know exactly how this is going to play out with Garic Cole you know he could he could say after his next rehab start you know I'm still feeling
Starting point is 00:25:50 into my elbow I got to shut down again as of today I got to say heel and so that's why I still have him ranked behind heel it's it's so tough to say because I moved Garrickole up to SP 28. I have Louise Heel at 33. You're right, Scott. I mean, that is within the range of outcomes for Garikol, but my expectation is from this point forward, Garicol will throw more innings this season than Luis Heel. That's your expectation. And I think that would be my expectation, too. And if that's the case, why would I not say Garrick Cole over Lewis? Yeah, like, that's the thing is Louise Heel's been awesome this year. Garer Cole pretty famously. Good pitcher. Oh, yeah. I don't know if you guys have heard. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:26:35 Yeah. So you're saying if you got in your inbox an offer, you have Luis Heel currently. He's helped you to a high spot in the standings. In your inbox, somebody's offering you Garrett Cole. It's so tough, man. I have moved Garrett Cole ahead of Louise Heel. Look at this. Three Yankees in a row.
Starting point is 00:26:57 Garrett Cole at 31, Carlos Rodan at 32, Louise Heel at 33. genuinely don't know which of the three I would prefer the rest of the way Heel I think is currently the best pitcher but it's also a month and a half where he's been a not just like it's a month and a half where Luis Heel has been a good major league pitcher
Starting point is 00:27:16 basically he wasn't very good in April the ERA was fine but it was a 20% walk rate I have more concerns about him throwing a hundred more innings the rest of the way, certainly than anyone else. Cole probably have the second most concerns about that.
Starting point is 00:27:37 So yeah. Garretre crochet, we've talked about him in those times before. I had, Gary Crochet is one. I have no idea what to expect the rest of the way. Yeah. Just because Louise Heel has less than a year and a half of service time. I think Gary Crochet is up to four already. Like they don't.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Yeah, he's closer to free agency then. The White House don't have any real long-term commitment to Garra Crochet. They want to get very. value out of him right now, which is a point Scott has been making since April. And so I don't really, yeah, it's, it's tough. He's a few spots ahead of that group, but it's, it's tough. I do want to talk about, I know we want to move on, but Bailey Overs is a really interesting one because his changeup looks awesome.
Starting point is 00:28:20 231 expected Woba, 34% whiff rate. This new cutter that he added this offseason that we were all really excited for has been a really good pitch. 296 expected Woba, 22% wifery. Slider, 215 expected Woba. Very rarely throws a curveball, but even that pitch has had really good results so far. And his fastball is just
Starting point is 00:28:40 an absolute disaster. It's basically a 425 expected Wobah. It's a T-ball holder. Yeah. And last year, last year, the fastball was a really special pitch. He had a 28% whiff rate in a 306-WB. That's really good for a four-seem fastball.
Starting point is 00:28:56 And so I don't know what to explain there. Did the cutter ruin the fastball? That's a concern. I think that's a fair question. I haven't moved him quite as far down, but he's SP 49 or 50 for me. So I definitely have my concerns. I'd prefer to hang on to Ober,
Starting point is 00:29:16 but I can't say I strongly disagree with anything Scott said. What makes it even more weird is it doesn't look like the movement profile has changed at all. At all, yeah. all velocity movement profile looks the same it's the command i think he's been like middle middle with the four seem a lot this year i wanted to with the garrick cole thing i wanted to use an excuse to cram in a couple more players here so max scherzer who's looking good on a rehab assignment i've got him 37th in between carlos rodon and justin steel and clayton kershaw who i think could be back within a month close to beginning a rehab assignment himself i've got him 75th now which is ahead of brandon fought and
Starting point is 00:29:56 Gavin Stone. To answer your question earlier, Scott, if I got that trade in my inbox, I would take Garrett Cole for Luis Heel, but that might turn out to be one of the dumbest things I say this year on this podcast. Chris, over to you, some of the biggest rankings movers. Yes, Nick Gonzalez, as we've talked a ton about, he just continues to hit really, really well. It just looks all around like a really solid profile. He's making a decent amount of contact, not walking a ton, but hitting the ball well, driving in a lot of runs, hitting in the heart of the lineup. I think there's potential for more stolen bases than we've gotten to.
Starting point is 00:30:32 I think his sprint speed is like 82nd percentile or something. So there's some upside there. I moved Gunner Henderson ahead of Ellie De La Cruz, which isn't like the biggest move in the world. I did too, sitting here on my red shirt. Same. And it's tough because Ellie is such a tough player to value right now.
Starting point is 00:30:54 He has like 48% more steals than anyone in baseball right now. Like he could have, if this pace continues, 25 to 30 more steals than anyone. But that pace has slowed down a little since April, as has everything else. He continues to really struggle as a right-handed hitter. But if he goes on another run for the next month where he has a 900 OPS,
Starting point is 00:31:20 would you guys be surprised at all? I wouldn't. Nope. So it's entirely possible that we're sitting here at the All-Star break and everybody's screaming that Ellie Delacruz should be the number one player when we do our inevitable redraft. So I don't want to move Ellie De La Cruz down too much, but I did move Gunner Henderson ahead of him. I'm not sure who else he deserves to move behind other than Gunner Henderson. It's as much about Gunner Henderson as Ellie De La Cruz, at least in my mind. Yeah. Devers has been pretty awesome. obviously the skill set's not as valuable and he's had some weird injury issues as well. So I'd probably stay. I'm sticking with Ellie Delacruz ahead of him.
Starting point is 00:32:05 And then shortstop. Yeah, none of the, none of the short stops I think are in that discussion, right? Maybe when Trey Turner returns if he's, if he looks like himself. I would put Trey Turner ahead of him if he's healthy. Yeah. I've been unsure whether or not Ellie De La Cruz needs to drop behind Seeger in points
Starting point is 00:32:24 leagues. Yeah. Let's see how things go with the hamstring injury. Obviously, Seeger had a good return tonight, but. Yep. Some questions there. And then at starting pitcher, it's another one where to more of a move up than I moved down, but I did move Paul Skeens ahead of Jared Jones, which we had talked about,
Starting point is 00:32:41 I think yesterday or the day before. I'm ready to make that move. And with Skeens, I mean, he's already taken off like a rocket ship. Best pitcher in baseball is within the realm of possibility, which, which is most tight pitching prospects in Steven Strausberg. It's not exactly a surprise there that that upside is there, although the fact that it's been this quick, the fact that he's got,
Starting point is 00:33:06 I think only relievers ahead of him in K-minus walk rate for the season. He's 44 in my overall rankings. He's 17 at SP. But as I said yesterday, 37 overall is my number 12 starting pitcher. so wouldn't take much to move ahead of him. My number 10 SP is 34th. So it would take very little in terms of the next three or so weeks
Starting point is 00:33:35 for Paul Skeens to become a top 10 starting pitcher for me. Paul Skeens, by the way, ranked top 20 starting pitcher for all three of us and now ahead of Jared Jones in all three of our rankings as well. Some movers for me in the rankings, Boba Chet. He's moving on down. He's down to shortstop 13 for me. I moved him behind hospital.
Starting point is 00:33:53 Sun Kim, Willie Adamus and Anthony Volpe. I just think Adomis and Volpe have been doing this for too long and Boba Chet, not pulling the ball, this offensive environment, the fact that offense has been way down in Rogers Center since they made those renovations last season. It's just, it's happened for too long. And so as a result, I have moved Boba Shet down to 13th at shortstop. Jaron is up in the outfield rankings.
Starting point is 00:34:17 He's up to 22nd in head-to-pointed points. 19 in Roto, and he had another good game here on Wednesday, three for five with a double, a run, and an RBI. He actually entered Wednesday as a top 10 outfielder in both formats. Now, I don't think that's going to remain, or else I would rank him there, but I think he's worthy of, you know, being inside the top 24, at least, in the rankings in both formats. And Scott, you win for now.
Starting point is 00:34:43 Mitch, Mitch Keller is up to SP 48 for me, the last six starts, 113, a 101 whip, doing a much better job with the walks and with the quality of. of contact. I have this big, let's call it a mini glob of like just veteran pitchers who kind of pitched to contact. It's Mitch Keller, Seth Lugo, Verlander, Berrios, Bassett, all those kinds of names. And Mitch Keller is at the top of that list. So yeah, they're kind of moving together, right? Yeah, I thought he was deserving of that honor. And so he's pitched really well and he has moved up the rankings. Let's take our final break. And when we return, we will recap the rest of Wednesday's action right after this.
Starting point is 00:35:23 Welcome back in. Let's take a look at the Waverwire pitchers. And Jake Irvin turned in yet another quality start. He was at the Tigers, six innings, one run, five strikeouts, only had eight whiffs on 98 pitches. But he has now turned in five straight quality starts. He has allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of 14 outings this season. We already spoke about Jose Soriano. Cade Povich was much better in his second start.
Starting point is 00:35:48 He was up against the Atlanta Braves, who are probably the top team to stream against. right now in fantasy baseball. It's... Fewest runs scored since April 24th. Yeah, crazy. They are stinky.
Starting point is 00:36:01 And they were first in runs scored up to that point, which is just a complete 180. It's wild. Kate Povich threw six shutout innings, five hits, zero walks, six strikeouts, 14 whiffs on 89 pitches.
Starting point is 00:36:12 I didn't watch this start live, but I watched the highlights. That curveball was filthy. The velocity was up, and it did a lot of good things here for Cade Povich. And Spencer Schwellenbach, on the other side, turned in a quality start,
Starting point is 00:36:25 six innings, two runs, three strikeouts, nine whiffs on 89 pitches, completely changed his pitch mix in this start compared to his first two starts. Scott, how would you rank these four in terms of your interest level? Jake Irvin, Soriano, Povich, and Schwellenbach. Well, I think Irvin is the clear number one.
Starting point is 00:36:46 And in a normal league environment, maybe I wouldn't say that. but I think he is going to continue to thrive as long as home runs don't surge too much in the summer months. I'm rooting for home runs to go up, so maybe I'm rooting against Jake Irvin to continue to succeed. But he has elite control 1.7 walks per 9. The FIP is in line with the ERA.
Starting point is 00:37:11 Now, the XFIP's higher, but I think given that we're struggling to tell what kind of fly ball translates to a home run, think FIP is more, is just how many home runs have you actually allowed, I think is the better gauge for what an ERA should be. And Jake Irvins is right in line with his FIP. As I've pointed out many times before, top two pitches, fastball and curveball, very low batting average against both this year and last year. And I think he's a really solid choice in fantasy right now. I've moved him into my top 90. So he's made that cut in the very deep pitching rank.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Jose Soriano I'd put second for all the reasons we already talked about. Not a ton of interest in Povich or Schwellenbach, given how pitching rich we all are. But, you know, Povich did show a little more upside in this start through a lot more strikes. That was, I think, the most encouraging sign for me, more than 70% strikes after 58% in his first start, and showed that he has some swing and miss stuff here. I'm not totally dismissive of Shwellenbach.
Starting point is 00:38:23 He seems to have elite control. His approach is more the let me throw six different pitches in a wide variety of ways. And maybe one will be working tonight. But it's, you know, he keeps hitters off balance with that. And he's throwing strikes consistently, like I said. So I think he's going to be good at limiting hard contact. I'm not sure. I'm not sure the extent of his upside.
Starting point is 00:38:47 But, you know, if, if, um, Hurston Waldrop goes out and has another stinker. I think Schwellenbach's going to stick around for a while. Yeah, this does make Hurston Waldrop a little riskier. I think, you know, in terms of the rookies who were called up like over the last week or so, I think I'd still prioritize Waldrop ahead of Povich. But I think I'd be okay with Povich ahead of Drew Thorpe. I don't have like a strong call either way on that because I think they're both probably pretty fringy.
Starting point is 00:39:18 but Povich's team context is just so much better that if he sticks around Yeah You know, the one thing that we've said about the Orioles consistently is like If you can be a league average pitcher Pitching for the Baltimore Orioles right now You can probably be pretty close to a must-start fantasy player
Starting point is 00:39:36 Because you're going to get a lot of wins Your ERA is going to be lower than it should be So if I think both Povich and Drew Thorpe are average-ish I'll give Povich the edge The one thing I want to point out on Jake Irvin is, I would imagine we all have Seth Lugo ranked significantly ahead of Jake Irvin. For me, it's only like 20 spots, but I think for Scott it's like 40.
Starting point is 00:40:02 If I remember, you had Lugo like 43rd. Yeah. There is basically no difference between their statistical profiles outside of two stats. Innings, Seth Lugo has pitched 10 more of them in the same number of starts. that's not insignificant. And wins, obviously. Seth Lugo has 1-9 of his 14 starts. Jake Irvin has won 5.
Starting point is 00:40:24 I don't expect Seth Lugo to win 20 games this season. I don't know about you guys. So that one I don't really care too much about. The innings one, Lugo does seem to be one of those rubber-arm guys that they're rare guys who can throw 110 pitches in a game and his team will let him. But Irvin has the better strikeout rate, the better walk rate. the better walk rate.
Starting point is 00:40:47 Ground ball rate, identical home run to fly ball rate, basically identical home runs per nine, basically identical. ERA, okay, Lugo's got the edge there. FIP, Jake Irvin 3.22, Seth Lugo 3.46. X-FIP, 3.54 to 3.92 in Irvin's favor. Entering today's start, they both had 383XERAs. I'm not saying Irvin's better. I think it makes sense to value Lugus.
Starting point is 00:41:14 because of the innings and because he has a longer track record of being a solid pitcher, but really big park he pitches in, too. Good park, yeah. But I don't think there's much difference between the two of them and skill set. It might just be Lugo's circumstances are a little better, although it might be unfair to say this because the Yankees are probably the best team in baseball right now, but feels a little like the Royals got exposed over the last three days. I think this is a team that's been playing.
Starting point is 00:41:44 way over their head in a lot of different ways. And they're probably not going to be this good moving forward. But I just, I think Jake Irvin's a lot closer to Seth Lugo than the, the conventional wisdom would suggest right now. Yeah. And I don't have them that far apart. I have Lugo SP 49. I have, I moved Jake Irvin up to SP 70, which sounds like a lot, but it's really not like 20 spots.
Starting point is 00:42:08 Yeah. That deep in the rankings. It's, you know, it's kind of negligible. But yeah, I don't disagree with any of that. Some pitchers in deeper leagues. Tobias Myers has turned in two strong starts in a row. This one against the Blue Jays, six innings, one run, had four strikeouts, his last two starts.
Starting point is 00:42:24 He's allowed just one earned run over 14 innings. Hogan Harris has pitched well for the A's. He was at San Diego, five innings, two runs, five strikeouts, and so far he has a 249 ERA and a 11-whip. And Jonathan Cannon, who pitches for the White Sox, was awesome. At the Mariner's, seven innings. One run, seven strikeouts, had 17 whiffs on 104 pitches.
Starting point is 00:42:49 This is real deep league stuff, but do any of these guys matter? Jonathan Cannon, Hogan Harris, Tobias Myers? I think you can blame this one on the Mariners. And kind of feel like that might be the answer for really all three of these, but also especially Tobias Myers versus Toronto. They've been pretty mediocre as well. There was no Vlad in the lineup either. Yeah, I was looking into Jonathan Cannon and I was hoping I could find something because this was an impressive start.
Starting point is 00:43:20 17 whiffs, seven strikeouts and seven innings. There's very little in the minor league track record. There's very little in the scouting reports that suggest that he's anything more than a fifth starter type. So I'm going to need to see a lot more than just one start against the most strikeout prone team in major league history. Which is disappointing because with a name like Jonathan Cannon, I know. I wanted him throw in 99, not 93. Come on, man.
Starting point is 00:43:51 What a letdown. He does get a lot of ground balls. And ground ball pitchers in the miners, their ERAs can often be inflated because the defense just isn't that good behind them. But, yeah, I don't think we're going to see many 17 swingy strike efforts from Jonathan Cannon moving forward. Let's fire up the drop home.
Starting point is 00:44:11 We already spoke about Reese Olson. Would you drop Olson for any of the first group that we mentioned, the Irvin Soriano, Povich, Schwellenbach? I feel like we, did we answer this one before? We kind of answered it at the top of the show, yeah. Well, we did it. Yeah, yeah, I guess so. I said I'm still going to rank Olson the highest of the three rest of season,
Starting point is 00:44:31 but they're going to be pretty close. Irvin and Soriano, those three. Yeah, I think they're all close. I probably give Olson the edge, but it might be one of those. things where this is your last chance to add Jake Irvin and Reese Olson may be able to sneak through waivers.
Starting point is 00:44:50 Yeah, in a shallow league I have no problem dropping Olson for Irvin at all because I just I don't think you're going to lose Olson Olson permanently with that move. What about Javier Assad who has struggled over his last five starts? He has not completed six innings in any of those and it's a 533 ERA, a 162 whip, 15 walks over 25 and a third walks, home runs have been a problem recently for Javier Assad.
Starting point is 00:45:16 He's still 84% rostered. The only thing that might give you a pause looks like he could be a two-star pitcher against the Giants and the Mets next week. But where is Assad on the drop-o meter? I'll drop it from a 10 to a 9 based on the two-star week coming up. I'd say 9 in Roto, four in head-to-head points because he has RP eligible. those two starts are pretty awesome. So I'd be holding him in a points league for sure.
Starting point is 00:45:44 It's just his starts are so short. Like it's hard to be, I've said before that it's, it's hard to be worth anything really if you can't go six innings more often than not. And he's gone six innings three times this year. It's kind of the same thing. He was pitching well. Frank and I talked about this yesterday about Jordan Hicks,
Starting point is 00:46:04 where he's one of those guys who in theory should be better in point. leagues because of that RP eligibility. But because he never goes deep into games, wins and quality starts, which are, and can potentially add, what, nine points to your... Between the two, 10 points. 10 points. Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:22 Yeah. Add it together. Standard CBS scoring. That, if you can do that regularly, that's super valuable. But if you can't, it doesn't really matter that much that you're at your RP eligible. So I hope hold him for next week. but in the long run, I think very dropable. New week, same question.
Starting point is 00:46:42 Walker Bueller. Up against the Rangers, five innings, three runs. Two of those earned. Only two strikeouts. Had seven whiffs on 88 pitches, 10 hard hits allowed in this game. And he went mostly cutter-sinker in this start, accounted for 71% of his pitches.
Starting point is 00:46:58 You can tell that he is searching for something right now. It's been a struggle coming back from the second Tommy John. Seven starts, a 464. ERA, a 148 whip. He absolutely is not playable right now, but what do you think about dropable? Yeah, here, here's a quote that I think sums it up from Walker Buehler after the game. It's a nice colorful one. This is Mike D.G. Ivani from the Los Angeles Times.
Starting point is 00:47:29 Walker Bueller said the trackman numbers on his ineffective four-seem fastball, which Corey Seeger hit for a three-run homer are similar to what they were pre-teens. DJ surgery, but quote, it doesn't have that F you behind it. And he did not just say the letter in the actual quote. Apparently that went out on live TV. So that tells you where Walker Bueller is right now. He was not angry. But yeah, he's searching for it.
Starting point is 00:47:58 And he has not found it. I'm not dropping him. I don't think I could bring myself to do that. I think the fully realized version of Walker Buehler that we might get at some point is so much better than Jake Irvin and whoever else we want to talk about. I'd much rather start Jake Irvin next week than Walker Bueller, though. So the dropometer, I would say two or three. Start o meter also two or three.
Starting point is 00:48:30 Oh, I just invented the startometer just that by the way. That's that's a added. I'll go four on drop a meter for Bueller. It's not unthinkable to drop him, but you need to have somebody, you'd need to be picking up somebody really good. It'd have to be better than Jake Irfan. It would have to be somebody who's probably too rostered
Starting point is 00:48:49 for us to talk about as a potential pickup. He just happens to be available in your league. That sort of situation. Let's slide into the Waverwire hitters. And Jesse Winker, it's starting to feel like he just needs to be rostered in all leagues, three outfielder leagues, five outfielder leagues.
Starting point is 00:49:06 It doesn't matter because he just keeps hitting two for three with two doubles, a run and an RBI. Last 24 games batting 333, two homers, 13 runs, 12 RBI, seven steals during that stretch. And he entered Wednesday as the 24th ranked outfielder in Roto and 21st in head to head points. Scott, is Jesse Winker just a must roster? Must is a little strong.
Starting point is 00:49:32 I would... I would be fine rostering him even in three outfielder leagues, but yeah, I don't think it's automatic. I think the upside is limited. I think he's usable in every format. But, you know, I saw George Springer dropped in a 12-team points league a couple weeks ago. And if George Springer isn't, if I can't call him a must roster, I mean, I picked up George Springer, the person who dropped him.
Starting point is 00:50:04 You know what I'm saying. Like, must is a high standard to meet. Yeah. I'll give you a few names. Would you drop Byron Buxton? He's 86% rostered. Yeah, I'd rather have Winker than Buxton. What about Cedric Mullins?
Starting point is 00:50:17 He's 80%. I'd rather have Winker than Mullins. What? I'd rather have Mullins. I would take Winker. What about... The thing is with Winker, nobody buys the 11 stolen bases, right?
Starting point is 00:50:32 Like, I know that they've happened. They keep happening. Nationals are running a ton except for C.J. Abrams, ironically enough. They lead baseball and steals as a team. It's all they've got going right now. He has attempted three steals over his last 11 games. Remember, he stole a base in four straight games at the end of May.
Starting point is 00:50:53 He's attempted three since that. He's been caught twice. Three and over his last. Like, what would you set the over under on Jesse Winker steals the rest of the way. Four and a half? I'd take the over. I would take the over, too. I can't. He's slow.
Starting point is 00:51:11 He's probably going to get traded somewhere else. I mean, Freddie Freeman, what he's done the last two years, it's opened my eyes to the kind of player who could steal bases. Yeah. It's all about the intent, baby. The nationals have the will to run. Intent is very important, but I feel like you start getting caught and the intent goes away pretty quick
Starting point is 00:51:36 when you're 17th percentile in sprint speed and had three career steals before this season. So yeah, I think that will is likely to run out fairly soon and his underlying numbers are pretty rotten. Even in this offensive environment, it's a, what, 250XBA, 360 X-Slo, lug or 390x lug, it's pretty bad.
Starting point is 00:52:05 Yeah, I mean, that's all fair. It's just, you know, I'm kind of approaching it from the perspective of if I have a hitter who's actually doing something. I'm kind of ring whatever I can out of them and then move on if I need to because it's just so hard to fill out a lineup with hitters who are actually doing stuff. Last point on Winker and Scott, you can thank me for tomorrow because this will be one of your sleeper hitters, six games next week. in Coresfield.
Starting point is 00:52:33 All right. Sure. Go add Jesse Winker. Jesse Winker for next week. Let's go. Four other waiver wire hitters, Zach Netto, three for five with his eighth home run.
Starting point is 00:52:41 Quietly has eight home runs and eight steals. Only 32% rostered. Miguel Anduhar has multiple hits in three of his last four games. He is up to a 323 batting average. The underlying numbers are very questionable for Miguel Anduhar right now. David Hamilton has been really good for the Red Sox, two for four with his fourth home run, two runs, and two RBI also has 13 steals on the season. And Donovan Solano in the deepest of leagues.
Starting point is 00:53:10 He's getting more run with the Padres. He started six straight. He went two for four with a double dong, only 2% rostered. Chris, do any of these names need to be more rostered? Neto 32% Andohar 29, Hamilton 25, and Donovan Solano, two. I know, I know Scott. hate Sack Netto. But Frank and I love him.
Starting point is 00:53:34 Love him. And he's actually been really good since the start of May. Really good might be stretching. He's been pretty good since the start of May. He's got like,
Starting point is 00:53:45 it's always stretching it. He's got like an 800 OPS since the start of May. He's got like a 25 homer, 20 stolen base pace. His lineup spot still doesn't do much. His lineup still doesn't do much. to help him.
Starting point is 00:54:01 But I'm pretty sure Zach Gelloff is still way more rostered than Zach Netto. Almost double. I'm not sure that makes sense. Given how bad Gellof's been. I mean, you're touting a stretch where he has a 750 OPS that.
Starting point is 00:54:18 It's higher than that after today. Yeah, higher than that after today. He's been caught stealing a bunch for what it's worth. Oh, it doesn't matter for Jesse Winker. Well, Jesse Winker has burned the benefit of the database base dealer. But it doesn't for Zach Netto is what you're implying here. Zach Netto is much faster.
Starting point is 00:54:39 I rank David Hamilton higher than Netto. I did check. I have David Hamilton one spot behind Jackson Merrill. I was doing that comparison earlier. But I don't know how long it'll last for Hamilton. But he's legitimately a really good base dealer. Stole 71 year in the miners. The power's been better than expected.
Starting point is 00:54:59 I'm not sure how long any of it's going to last, but if it does last, he'll continue to play a lot as their primary shortstop and steal a lot of bases and be plenty valuable. So I think in Roto Leagues, David Hamilton probably needs to be rostered at this point, unless it's just a really, really shallow Roto League.
Starting point is 00:55:21 Yeah, I think that's fair. All right, what do you know? We're moving way too slow, so we're going to skip hitters who are turning their seasons around. and kind of blast through some of these pitcher questions that I had. Michael King should have got to it earlier. Five innings, two runs, 12 strikeouts, 19 whiffs on 98 pitches,
Starting point is 00:55:40 last five starts, 220 ERA, a 0.94 whip, 34 strikeouts over 28 and 2 thirds. Scott, is the Michael King breakout back on? Hmm. Is it back on? I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say with great enthusiasm that it is. Obviously, Michael King's been pitching well of late. He's kind of faded his four-seamer recently, which seems like a good plan. Tough pitcher to figure out, but if I have him on my
Starting point is 00:56:11 roster, I'm happy to have him on my roster. Fair enough. That's it. I mean, do you have a firm take otherwise? Maybe you threw it to the most... No, no, no. The person with the least to say about Michael King. It's weird because he's gone on this great run. This run has been about as good as his first six starts were bad. So we have like a really good six start stretch and then we have like a really bad six start stretch followed by a really good five start stretch.
Starting point is 00:56:38 So I think he can continue to build on this and the control has got a lot better which I expected to come around eventually. Well, the fact that strikeouts have been so high during this stretch. So I have, I went back to eight starts, 205 ERA in his last eight starts, 10.5K
Starting point is 00:56:54 per nine during that stretch. So that looks a lot more like the Michael King we saw down the stretch last year. And yeah, he's... And he is... Is he averaging six innings per start? Because I know he had one appearance that was not a start.
Starting point is 00:57:10 So we take that one out. He's probably not quite at six, but he's pretty close. Yeah, I don't think so. He does have the RP eligibility, which really helps out his value in a head-toad points league. But yeah, Michael King has turned the season around.
Starting point is 00:57:22 What about Bryce Miller? He pitched a gem against the White Sox. No Luis Robert in the lineup there. He threw seven shutout, two hits, two walks, eight strikeouts, had 12 whiffs on 92 pitches, and he just went back to the old trusty fastball. 53% usage on the four seamer. It was really good for him in this start, so I get why he used it more. Chris, is this your window?
Starting point is 00:57:47 Is the window back open to sell high on Bryce Miller right now? Yes. What's the season ERA down to? It's got to be pretty decent. 3.40. 348 with a 0.98 whip. Yeah, that's pretty good. The whip is really nice. Still less than a K per 9.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Yeah. Like, I think the thing with Bryce Miller is for as much work as he has put into developing the rest of his arsenal, he threw six pitches today. It's still just everything goes with the fastball. If the fastball's awesome, he's awesome. When it's not, he just doesn't have enough else. and I don't think you can rely on that profile to work out consistently. So yeah, I think he's probably more of a high 3s ERA guy. And yeah, there's a cell window right now.
Starting point is 00:58:42 I think you should try to take it if you can. All right. Let's talk about some of the other leftovers. Pitchers part one, Sunny Gray. Awesome. Up against the Pirates, seven innings. One run, nine strikeouts there. Pablo Lopez, a solid bounceback outing.
Starting point is 00:58:55 against the Rockies, five innings, two runs, five strikeouts for him. Logan Webb, a quality start up against the Astro, six innings, three runs, five strikeouts to zero walks. He has a quality start in six of his last seven. He's got anything that stood out from Webb, Pablo Lopez, and Sunny Gray. Well, I was encouraged to see Sunny Gray go seven again because five of his previous six starts had been less than six innings, much less seven. continued to get a lot of strikeouts during that stretch.
Starting point is 00:59:24 But that's always been kind of a frustration with Sunny Gray, is that the ratios, even when he's going better, they're not up. He's less effective than his ratios because his starts are so often cut short. Also, Pablo Lopez, I wish we had gotten a chance to talk about this on the Monday show. But his two-star week that we were touting last Friday got canceled. Got the spot start from Louis Varland on Tuesday,
Starting point is 01:00:00 which pushed Lopez back to Wednesday. So just this one start against Colorado doesn't get the second start against Oakland. But hopefully you were still satisfied with what he did in this one. It's happening a lot this time of year. I think maybe there are fewer off days on the schedule right now. And so teams are inserting these extra starters. You talked about Yoshinobu Yamamoto. getting pushed back.
Starting point is 01:00:22 It's, it's maybe be a little more selective with pitchers. I'm not saying Papa Lopez is the guy you need to be selective with. But if you're saying, I'm only starting this guy because he's two starts, we'll understand that very likely that second start will get dropped. Especially if it's a Sunday start. I think that if it's Monday, Saturday, maybe you can get away with it. But if it's Tuesday, Sunday, that that's a lot riskier. Pitching standouts part two.
Starting point is 01:00:47 We've got a mixed start from Tanner Bybee at. the Reds, five and a third, four runs allowed, but 11 strikeouts was a season high, 16 whiffs on 102 pitches. Last six starts, a 283 ERA, point 94 whip for Tanner Bybee. Nick Ladolo, a quality start against the Guardians, six innings, two runs, six strikeouts, 13 whiffs on 102 pitches, and Franber Valdez followed up his complete game with a clunker at the Giants, four innings, five runs, one strikeout to one walk. And he only threw 59 pitches. There was no injury.
Starting point is 01:01:23 This was a tweet from Chandler Rome who covers the Astros. Framber Valdez is fine physically. Both he and Joe Espada said, Espada pulling him after 59 pitches was more due to San Francisco's contact against him and wanting to keep the game within striking distance. So, Chris, anything to add on Bibby, Ladolo, and Framber Valdez? Ladolo, since coming back from the IEL, the production has still been very good. It's an ERA right around like 2.5 or 2.4 after this start. But strikeouts have been disappointing.
Starting point is 01:01:57 19 strikeouts in 23 and a third innings. Not exactly what we hope for from Nicodolo. The curveball. Are you going to point this out? The curve ball. The movement, both horizontal and vertical, down like three inches since I. Oh, I hadn't seen that. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:02:12 That's, okay. So I'm kind of surprised he's been as effective as he has. Yeah, I mean, there's been a lot of weird. stuff with the Reds like quality of contact this season, the pitchers like Hunter Green has by far the best of his career. Andrew Abbott has had really good results on balls in play and Lodolo now. So I don't know what's up with that. But yeah, that's the quality of the curveball does look like it's down lately.
Starting point is 01:02:40 That's a concern given how important that pitch is for him. That's something to watch. Yeah, good catch. All right, some quick hitter mentions some leftovers. There was a lot, but I'll just mention a few of them. Sayas Suzuki had himself a big game, two for four with a sock and a shoe, his eighth home run, his fourth steal. As soon as I move Nico Horner down the rankings, he returns and steals two bases.
Starting point is 01:03:03 So great job with his fractured hand. John Carlos Stanton, the redemption season continues two for five with his 17th homer. That's back-to-back days with a home run for Stanton. and Jamer Candelario continues his tear. Three for four with a double dong, four RBI. His first 23 games a season, he hit 159 with a 580 OPS. Last 37 games for Candelario, 2.92 batting average, nine homers, 23 RBI, two steals, tons of line drives.
Starting point is 01:03:33 He's up to 80% rostered. Could be out there in some of the shallowest leagues, and I would look to change that. This kind of looks like the sleeper we were expecting in Jamer Candelario. Some bullpen updates for the Brewers. Trevor McGill allowed a hit and a walk, but struck out one for his 11th save.
Starting point is 01:03:52 For the Giants, Camillo Duvall struck out one for his 12th. For the A's, Mason Miller entered the ninth with the game tied. He gave up a walk-off homer to Jackson Merrill. For the Orioles, Craig Kimbril struck out one for his 16th save. For the Nationals, Kyle Finningin got the ninth with a three-run lead. He gave up a solo homer. but converted his 19th save. For the Cubs, Hector Nairas got the ninth with a two-run lead.
Starting point is 01:04:18 He gave up one run on a walk and two hits. He picked up his 10th save. Narris has been shaky. I just don't think there's anywhere else they can go. There's not really anyone there to threaten Hector Nairus in the Cubs bullpen. For the Reds, Alexis Diaz, pitched a clean ninth for his 14th save. For the Red Sox, Kenley Jansen, gave up a run, but picked up his 10th save.
Starting point is 01:04:40 and for the Cardinals, Ryan Helsley gave up a hit, but struck out one for his, I believe, league leading. Yeah, how about Halsley leading league and saves on the last place team? Are they in last place? They're like, yeah, they're, they're, did the Reds win today? Uh, yeah, Lexis just got. Yeah, yeah, they did. So, yeah, the Cardinals are in last place. They're 32 and 34, so it's not like they're a disaster, but yeah, I think the pirates, I think the pirates drop behind them actually.
Starting point is 01:05:09 it's oh yeah you're right you're basically a four-way tie for last place by uh yeah by winning percentage basically the brewers are running away with that and everyone else is tied for second or fifth depending how you look at it even though the brewers have zero healthy pitchers uh to stream or not to stream on thursday we have oh i remember this day i mean not colervin against the braves right Yeah, for sure. At home? And Baltimore, yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:42 100%. Yeah, I think so. And if I had to choose two others, I would say Todge Bradley against the Cubs and Lanselin against the Pirates. Yeah, I think that's probably the best options. I love them. I'd prefer Bradley to Cole Irvin, actually. And I did not write down Friday, so I'm just going to quickly scour the matchups. I think Kyle Gibson at the Cubs.
Starting point is 01:06:06 I think that's doable. He's pitched pretty well recently. Not bad. Cooper Chriswell against the Yankees. Don't think we want to do that. Logan T. Allen at the Blue Jays. Nope. Nope.
Starting point is 01:06:18 Matt Waldron. I don't know if he's too rostered, but he is at the Mets. So one thing I would keep an eye on. I guess I... 76%. Doesn't really mean it. Still good.
Starting point is 01:06:34 If you can't star, Waldron, still a good... Yeah, yeah, you should. The Marlins have not set their rotation for the upcoming series. And Max Meyer, I believe, has not pitched in a week. And they've got an open rotation spot Friday. They are TBA against the Nationals. So that's something to keep an eye on because there's a quote that he was going to come back soon.
Starting point is 01:07:00 Not necessarily sure I'd love streaming him given he's struggled on his rehab or not Rehab assignment, but it's just demotion. But that's one to keep an eye on, certainly. A couple other names here. Any interest in Sean Mania against the Padres? Not really. No. Simeon Woods Richardson against Oakland.
Starting point is 01:07:21 Eh? That might be the second. That's okay, yeah. Best that we've talked about for Friday. Did you mention Hunter Brown against the Tigers? I did. I would do that. Not.
Starting point is 01:07:31 I would stream him. He's been pretty good for like a month plus now. Yeah. And the Tigers are very very. streamable. Don't love the win potential against Terrick's Google, but still. Yeah. I think that's a pretty good trio there. Hunter Brown against the Tigers,
Starting point is 01:07:45 Kyle Gibson at the Cubs, and Simeon Woods Richardson against the Oakland A's. Yeah, I don't see any other ones. We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again
Starting point is 01:08:01 tomorrow. Bye-bye.

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