Fantasy Baseball Today - Redrafting the First Two Rounds! Carlos Rodon vs. Kevin Gausman (5/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 30, 2022

What word would you use to describe the baseball season thus far (1:05)? ... Let's redraft the first round (7:33). ... Mookie Betts or Ronald Acuña (7:33)? ... What's up with Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (21:25)? ... Where does Aaron Judge go (28:30)? ... Is Shohei Ohtani still a first-round pick (35:14)? ... Let's get into the second round (40:28). ... Where does Kyle Tucker go (44:50)? ... Carlos Rodon or Kevin Gausman (50:45)? ... Who finishes out the second round (54:30)? Fantasy Baseball Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Get 20% off Fantasy Baseball Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-baseball-today?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-baseball-collection Follow our FBT team on Twitter: @FBTPod, @CTowersCBS, @CBSScottWhite, @Roto_Frank Join our Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Subscribe to our YouTube channel: youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your lead. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still a first round pick? How early would you take Aaron Judge if you were drafting today?

Let's find out. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Memorial Day, Monday, May 3rd? 30th, Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we're redrafting the first two rounds for the rest of the season, which is always a fun exercise, if I do say so myself. And we have some mailback questions at the end, if we get to them, if we have some time. All right, fellas, we are just two months into the season. What word would you use to describe this baseball season thus far?

Scott will start with you. I'm just going to say frustrating. It's been frustrating. It has been just for, I don't know, I guess the third straight year dealing with major influences from the outside. It's not just about players doing what they do on the field. There's been the increased use of deadened balls. There's been the universal use of humedores, and, you know, that seems to be having an effect on how the ball plays.

And so obviously, I mean, we're kind of having to figure out on the fly what that means for every player. And the balance between pitching and hitting is changing. I mean, it's so drastically different now from just 2019 that, yeah, I mean, it makes it hard to do it. assess players on the fly and it makes it so I mean fittingly so you if you could go back and redo things you probably would redo a lot of things like I'm not going to draft the pitcher in the first round I don't know if either of you guys will as we go through this exercise but like I want

the hitting more I want the hitting more based on what I know now yeah no I think that is perfectly fine I mean we're we're going to become meteorologists by the end of this season because we're trying to figure out how the humidity affects different locations and how offense will rise in certain places throughout the season and maybe not as much in others and it does make it hard to assess fantasy baseball from a micro level with player by player analysis

and even a macro level. What does it mean for the entire game right now and the fantasy game? So it has been frustrating. Chris, what do you think? A word to describe this season. And Chris is frozen. We were talking just beforehand.

He was like, my connection's kind of messed up. I don't know what's happening, but we'll go with it. And here we are. I'll add this to what I was saying earlier is what makes it so frustrating is that I don't feel like

with all the kind of foundational changes going on that I can even trust my approach. You're always going to get player picks wrong. That's part of the game. But I don't even know that I'm approaching the game properly right now. And I'm pretty unhappy.

happy with the way most of my teams are performing. And I'm not having a lot of fun. Not having a lot of fun. Uplifting start here. But, you know, it's the way it is. Hopefully we'll get some, hopefully things will stabilize in the next couple of years. I hope so.

Scott, the word for me was confusing, which I guess is not all that different from frustrating. But it was early on in the season. We had a bunch of contact pitchers excelling in April. And then in May so far, it's been a solid offensive bounce back solid. I mean, not back to where we were, and I don't think we're going to get back to that level,

but we're still trying to figure everything out here. So for me, it's been confusing, and I hope it kind of clears up as the season goes along. And here he is. Christopher Towers is back. How would you describe the season in one word? Can I use the word that Scott already chose? Because I think frustrating is the right word.

Sure. The thing about prognosticating sports is, it's always going to be difficult, even with, you know, like in baseball, there's, we have a lot of information that helps us make predictions about the upcoming season. We have thousands upon thousands of data points, player at bats, pitches, like all this stuff. We can get really granular with it. And so when it feels like we just don't know anything, it's really, really frustrating because this is, it's already hard to prognosticate when we have all. all that information and we have an idea of how far a batted ball is going to travel when it's hit.

Like these are these are things that are difficult enough without not even, I don't care if it's an extreme environment one way or the other. My preference would be for a little more balance. I think it's generally a bad thing when there's too many strikeouts and too little action. But mostly I just want a. predictable environment. And that's what we haven't had is it seems more

more than ever the last few years. And look, it's possible that just this kind of thing just happened regularly in the past. And we just weren't attuned to it because we didn't have the level of granularity that we have now.

You know, it's possible that that's an explanation and that we're just, we're hyper aware of these kind of changes and these changes were if not normal at least happened in the past and we just kind of chocked it up to

this is a good year for pitching or this is a good year for like I would guess that's something that has happened in the past these manufacturing irregularities in the ball and all that stuff well I mean if you're talking about the past as in like maybe the 80s were different

maybe the 60s were different then yeah I could definitely see that but during the time people have been playing fantasy baseball. I mean, we have home run to fly ball rates going back to 2002. So 20, there's 21st year of them. And there was this six year, six year span from 2016 to 2021 where they were way up. And then everything before that, it was based, it was very consistently between like 9.5 and 11.5

And this year, it's in that range as well. But during that six-year span, the Juice Ball era, it was more like 12.5 to 13.5. And so it really stands out. All right. Well, we're in it together, guys. Let's try and figure out what is going to happen for the rest of the season.

And we'll do that with our redraft. Of the first two rounds, the way this is going to work, we're going to rotate picks until we get through the top 24. So we'll go Scott, Chris, and myself in that. order. With that being said, Scott, you are on the clock with the first overall pick. All right. Well, I'm not going to think too strategically here in terms of I wonder what they're going to pick. Maybe I can get this guy with my next pick. I'm just going to go straight with who. This is who I think everybody should take number one if we're redrafting. And I

want to stress from today forward. Numbers already accumulated. It's not like we get those anymore. We're just predicting what happens from now on. Taylor Ward's not going to be drafted. I feel confident saying that. But number one pick for me is Mike Trout. Because he has come back from the lost season looking every bit like Mike Trout, looking

like the player who's been regarded as the best hitter in baseball for the decade prior to last year. And at a time when offense is so unpredictable and unreliable, that's what I want. I want that assured studdom

that I can count on Trout to provide. I guess you could make the injury risk argument against him. You could make a stolen base argument against him. But stolen bases seem to be, you know, it seems like there are more sources of them than we thought there were going to be, one, and two, I don't think that the nature of his injuries are the kind that we can expect them to keep happening over and over again.

I think that's kind of overblown. He looks healthy. He's playing like Mike Trout. He's my number one pick. And the injury last year for Mike Trout was a calf strain, How has that affected him? Well, zero steals. But Trout is still in the 95th percentile for sprint speed, according to stat cast. So I have a feeling if he wanted to run, steel bases, he probably could.

It's not really a part of his game anymore, but batting average, home runs, counting stats, OPS over 1,000, fantastic in points leagues, plate discipline is still there, averaging four fantasy points per game. If I reference any numbers throughout the course of today's podcast, again, we're recording this on Thursday, dropping it over the weekend, so keep that in mind. and hopefully, hopefully, nothing happens to these players over the next couple of days before this podcast comes out because that would be terrible. All right, Chris. Chris, you're up with these. We're so cheery today. Second overall pick goes to Chris. Who do you get?

You know, it's interesting because I feel like we don't know anything new about Mike Trout. And I don't know, if you were fading him for injury risk, you should still be fading him for injury risk, right? Isn't that the kind of consistency that we aim for? I thought people were fading him because they were afraid he wasn't going to be ready to go. I thought that factored into the same. I'll just say I thought people were fading him too much. And so I'm glad to see everyone's on my side again. No.

I actually did. I did think he was going to steal bases more than he has. So I'm a little disappointed there. But yeah, he's awesome. Second overall pick. I'm going to go with Jose Ramirez, who, I don't know. It feels kind of lame. Like, oh, Jose Ramirez has been so good so far.

So just take him. And it's kind of reacting to what we've seen so far. But yeah, he's awesome. And, you know, Trey Turner's not hitting the ball as well as he has in the past. And so, you know, the concern with Trey Turner when I was ranking him the number one overall player was, you know, okay, if the power breakout that he's had the last couple of seasons doesn't sustain, you know, is he really worth the number one pick? He's still going to be awesome. Jose Ramirez, there's no questions about his performance. He's as good as we've ever seen him, arguably. I mean, he's got an 8% strikeout rate so far this season without sacrificing any power. So, yeah, I think Jose Ramirez is just. I don't know, Trey Turner might have more upside.

Maybe Juan Soto has more upside if he hit like 3.30 like he's capable of. But right now, I would go Hoseer-Marras, although I consider it a cune. Third base has been as terrible as we thought it was going to be. Like the gap between the has and half-nots

of that position is stark. So we're going to see as this plays out, but I have multiple third basemen in my first round for exactly that reason. And I also would take Ramirez second overall. The top three third baseman right now in Roto leagues, Machado, Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers. They're all top 11 players. Then you have Nolan Aronado as the 44th overall player. Your fifth rank third baseman is Patrick Wisdom. 78th overall. And then after that, you're climbing outside of the top 100. So it really, it's like,

maybe not anymore by the time people listen to that. Wisdom, I don't think is going to be the fifth third basement for long. Like I would still consider Austin Riley among the high-end third basement. I could still consider Alex Bregman among the high-in third baseman, even if their performance to date doesn't have them in that range. But beyond that, there's not a lot. Not a lot you can rely on. All right. Yeah. Anything Chris? Oh, I was just like, Rendon, I think will be fine. I think Bobby Witt's going to figure it out. I think Cabrion Hayes has a big stretch coming up. But yeah, I don't think I can go further than 11 or 12 that I feel good about.

So it's sort of splitting hairs either way. All right. Well, speaking of Jose Ramirez, by the way, he is actually ranked higher than Mike Trout in both Roto and head to head points so far this season. Best version of him that we've seen OPS, over 1,000, career high Wobah, weighted runs, creative plus. Jose Ramirez is awesome. Third overall pick, I'll preface this, that Ronald de Cunia is dealing with.

with a groin injury when we're recording this, so I don't know if anything is going to come from that, but he's been dealing with that and a couple other things so far, quad here and there. Maybe I'm overreacting. I'm gonna take Mookie Betz, who is having a just ridiculous May so far,

and maybe it's just confirmation, I needed to see him healthy, whatever it is. He looks like Mookie Betz, and he looks outstanding, and he's approaching a 300 batting average, and the power is there, 12 home run so far. He has 44 run scored in 41 games. That is a

173 run scored pace. No, I don't think he's actually going to do that. The speed has kind of fallen off over the past month. Everything else is there. He leads off for the best lineup in baseball. I think you go in a couple of different directions here, but I'm going with Moogie Betts, third

overall. So I have Betz ninth, but I'm okay with you taking him third. Like, I feel like, so I have a written version of this out on the site already, And I felt like I have the right players in the first round, but I'm not at all confident in the order I put them.

With bets, I would just say two things. One is that he is not going to sustain his current pace. You mentioned the runs. He's also on pace for a career high home runs. He's not going to hit a career high in home runs in this environment. I feel pretty confident saying that. He's also slowed down quite a bit in terms of actual sprint speed. three stolen bases so far

that's an oh well it's not a great pace really it's it's more like a throw around 10 yeah yeah more not the pace we're used to seeing for mooky bets and after the issues with the hip and just given how deep the Dodgers lineup is

I don't know that there's much incentive for him to run so that's why I have him lower in the first round but like I think you could take moogie bets with any pick in the first round and be pretty happy with it yeah the 4.5 fan fantasy points per game so far this season is also better than Mike Trout.

It's just behind Jose Amira. So bets back on track, Awesome May. And Scott, your backup fourth overall. All right. So you left Acuna for me. I guess I'll take Acuna. You got it. I wish he was in the lineup more consistently,

but I think as the season goes on, that it's going to become more consistent. He's still in the early stages of returning from that torn ACL. but he's been running with reckless abandon. He's been stealing plenty of bases. That has not, the health of his knee has not hindered him at all. And if he was completely healthy at the start of the season, he would have been the consensus number one overall choice.

So I think I think I'm happy to get him fourth overall here. Eight steals in 17 games is a 70 stolen base pace over 150 games for Ronald Lucunya. So he is running a crazy amount right now. He's absolutely crushing the ball. 94.6 mile per hour. Average exit velocity for Acuna is the highest that we've seen from him. And the barrel rate is there. Everything's awesome.

Strikeout rate up a little bit, but I think he should be great. As long as he's healthy, that's what we need from Acuna. Chris, you are up fifth overall. I did want to quibble with if he had been healthy. He would have been the consensus number one overall pick. Because there's another guy who, if he had been healthy, would have been the consensus overall pick. And I thought, I didn't say if both of them were.

I wish, I wish Fernando Tatis was closer because I think he would be a really interesting player to discuss in the first two rounds. I don't know, given that he still hasn't been cleared to swing, whether he would make it into the first two rounds. I don't know if he made it into yours, Scott. No, I considered it. Yeah, it's, it's tough to justify. So, all right, well, I'm going to go with the guy who up until very recently has been. been my number one player and is still in the top tier of players, Trey Turner. The power production hasn't been there. He's on like a nine homer pace, 10 homer pace.

He's on like a 40 steel pace also. He's hitting 290. So I'm not really concerned. Trey Turner, uh, quality of contact metrics are actually all still pretty good, arguably better than they've been in the past with the exception of the fact that he's hitting the ball on the ground more. And, you know, maybe that will remain an issue. And, you know, maybe that will remain an issue. And, and, he won't be the 25 to 30 homer guy that he's been recently but I still think he's very much

capable of that and so I still think you're getting absolutely one of the best five category contributors in the game weirdly on pace for fewer than 75 runs right now which is stunning in that lineup. He's driving

in bets he's driving well yeah he's on pace he's on pace for like a hundred and 25, 130. So, you know, if you add them up, he's on pace for like 210 combined, which is probably about right. Freddie Freeman is on base a lot ahead of him too. So, yeah, he's kind of making up for it with the RBI. And you're fine with that.

Like, that's, yeah, RBI and runs are kind of interchangeable. I don't know, maybe you built your team to have 110 runs from Trey Turner and he's disappointing you there, but probably not. I see very little reason to think that Trey Turner is a. going to be better moving forward than he has been so far, and he's already been pretty good. So, yeah, I think Trey Turner is absolutely still in the discussion for the number one player, especially in Roto leagues. Head-to-head points leagues less so, but still an elite player.

I agree he's in the discussion, and as I just said with Mookie Betts, you know, I wasn't confident in how I ordered my first-round players. I put Trey Turner a little lower because he, among all the first rounders that we're going to discuss here, I think it's the most questionable for him whether his power is going to play in this environment. And that's what's been lacking for most so far. Not really. The way he's hitting the ball,

he should be fine for power. I mean, he's 89th percentile on average exit velocity. He is 89 percentile this year. He's normally closer. So, like, he's probably impacting the ball harder than he normally does right now and still hasn't gotten the home runs. And I imagine that exit velocity is going to work. just based on his track record.

A little bit, although he was 78th percent on 2020, 73rd, and 2019. So I do think, like, the breakout has been more about, you know, tapping into some of the latent power,

but also hitting the ball in the air a little more. And so I do think, like the 6.2 degree launch angle right now, I would bet on that being higher moving forward. He is, Trey Turner is one of the few first rounders who I think, I feel confident is going to be better moving forward than he has, been so far. I agree with that, especially from a power perspective, as you guys have laid out here,

his home run to flyball ratio for Trey Turner, 7.7%. That's almost half of his career mark so far this season. And his average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives specifically is up this year, compared to last year, yet his home run to fly ball rate is down. So that doesn't really make much sense to me. I think more power is coming, as we'll talk about later on with Freddie Freeman. I think more power coming there. The other point in Trey Turner's favor is he's the only second baseman we're going to consider. Second base has been, well,

on the high end, it's been even worse than third base, but it also has that, that sharp dichotomy between the halves and half-nots. Yeah. There's kind of a glob with solid talent at second base,

but maybe not those old beats. Well, I mean, the high-end guys outside of, I mean, Trey Turner's been a little disappointing, but Albies, Marte, Maryfield,

Story, Semian, it's been rough. It's like a who's who of, fringe power guys who may have may have had the rug pulled out from under them this year or may not. We'll see how the summer goes. All right, sixth overall is my pick

and I have Juan Soto, who... It has to be. We've been receiving some emails and tweets and people are, what's going on with Juan Soto? He's been 236. He only has 14 RBI nearly here by the end of May. He's got eight homers. He has four steals. You really like to see that for Soto. Maybe it's just a thing where he gets off to slow starts.

his first 45 games of 2021. He had an 837 OPS so far this year, first 45, 814 OPS, and he still finished with a tremendous season last year. Just look at the track record so far, over 500 games with a 295 batting average, 966 OPS. I think better days are coming for Wansoto. Oddly enough, he's been awful with runners in scoring position this year, a 293 OPS that's been 966 overall for his.

career. So I think RBIs will come. Better days will be had for Wonsoto. Sixth overall. And Scott, you are up with number seven. Can you recap the first six for us? I do just want to want one so does fine. There's zero related. Oh, he doesn't have lineup protection. He didn't have line up protection last year. He got off to a slow start. He had an 802 OPS on May 25th last year. He's fine. It's Juan Soto. Don't overthink these things. There are little things. You know, line drive rate is down.

Hard contact is down a little bit. But I think those will even out as the season goes long. The top six picks so far, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna, Trey Turner, and Juan Soto. Scott, you are up. I'll go with Vladdi Daddy, Garero. Hopefully he put minds at ease with his home run. I guess I should say last week.

Maybe there's been more since then. I don't know. but he had been pretty quiet since that three homer game in April and the launch angle had been bad in May but it was fine in April and you know still impacting the ball as hard as anybody with the kind of contact skills that are rare among players who impact the ball that hard

so I think he's another very safe bat at a time when no one is safe the one thing that stands out I guess a few things ground ball rate being up for Vlad which has been an issue in the past He's got to improve that launch angle. And we spoke about this recently, but we had an emailer listening. No, a listener email in.

That would probably make more sense. About how Vlad crushed it in the minor league parks for the Blue Jays in 2021. But outside of those parks, he was a sub-900 OPS bat. So I didn't want to be in the position where I had to make a decision about Vladimir Guerrero. Doesn't have the track record of some of these other players. So doesn't run. It doesn't run. He doesn't have the track record, but he certainly has the pedigree.

He was expected to be one of the best hitters in baseball and finally became, and he was the number one player in fantasy last year, even as somebody who doesn't run. And I don't think he's going to get back to, I don't think he's going to finish this year of 48 home runs. I'm not sure anybody will. Maybe Aaron Judge. But otherwise not. So I actually had him fifth in my article. I had him ahead of both Trey Turner and Mookie Betts among the players who've been picked so far.

But again, that's just, there's an argument certainly to be made for those guys instead. All right. And with that, eighth overall, Chris, you're up. Yeah, I'm going to go with the guy who I'm pretty sure I had eighth overall to start the season. And that's Bryce Harper, because I think you can make an argument that his star has dimmed a little bit because of the injury. And there is certainly increased risk as a result of that. it's also worth noting that he's played like the best player in fantasy since the injury he he dhed for the first time on April 17th he hasn't played the field since then

in 30 games he has a 361 average a 1098 OPS 9 homers 24 RBI 23 runs 5 steals he's on a 254 run 49 homer 27 steel pace since the injury. So clearly it's not bothering him. It's bothering him so that he can't throw, but it has not been an issue so far. His average exit velocity, his quality of contact metrics, all arguably better than they ever have been. Interestingly, his walk rate has collapsed. He has a sub-13% walk rate for the first time. It's actually 6.5%. I maybe that's, he just doesn't want to stand up there in the holding, maybe the holding the bat stance hurts more than the swinging stance.

I don't know. I heard the, it was from the Braves broadcast team, but I think it was Jeff Frankor. He was speculating that maybe the walk rate is down because he's, he just, he just doesn't want as it bats to be as long, you know. But,

I mean, yeah, like he's swinging at the first pitch 54% of the time for his career. That's 39% of the time. He's swinging 57% overall for his career. That's 47%. percent. He is chasing a little more, but it hasn't really led to an increase in whiff rate at all. So, I don't know, man, Bryce Harper's awesome. And I think the only real risk is just that he gets hurt. Well, it's the biggest risk.

That he has, he has, he's already hurt. He's already hurt, yes. He has the biggest risk factor of any player we're going to talk about today. And that was enough for me to push him to round two. If it was strictly a matter of production, I'm with you. He deserves to be this high. He's a reigning MVP and is performing like it again. But he can't play the outfield right now. If he was doing this and didn't have injuries, would he be third?

I think he's top five. I mean, you probably take him over Ronald O'Cunia right now, right? Given that we know Ronald O'Cunia is going to get time off and he's currently hurt. No, I mean, the difference between Harper and I know you're saying if we knew. Harper was healthy. But I expect Acuna's playing time to improve. Sure, sure, sure. I think Harper's can only get worse.

If the Phillies fall out of it, I mean, he might shut down for the season. If there's a chance the elbow could get worse so that he can't even play DH. I know they're hoping at some point it improves enough that he can go back to the outfield. But like, it's the sort of injury where everything could just suddenly end, even if he's playing great right now. All right. Well, I am up with pick number nine. I got a few things here. Considering some third baseman, considering pitching, but I kind of agree with you, Scott. I think I would rather, knowing what we know now, I would want to load up on elite bats before I grabbed the first starting pitcher off the board. I'm just going to do it. I'm going to go with the Homer pick, and I'm going to go with Aaron Judge, who has probably been the fantasy MVP so far. He's first overall in Roto. He's averaging 4.3. fantasy points per game. He leads Major League Baseball with 17 home runs. He's batting over 300. The stack has numbers are always amazing for Judge. They are even better. So he's motivated, not that he hasn't been in the past, but he's playing for a contract, obviously. And, you know,

there are risk factors with him. Can Aaron Judge stay healthy? I, you know, I think we still have those questions. But we've also seen him be this caliber of player in the past. 2017, it's been a while, but he was the third overall player. He had 52 home runs that season. I think that he is the gold standard of power right now. And it'll even chip in a handful of steel. So I get the injury risk, but I'm going to go with Aaron Judge. Ninth overall.

See, that's another guy who I think we could talk about top five, if not for the injury risk. Like, that's the only thing. Because we know he's the best power hitter in baseball. We've known that since he hit, what was it, 52 home runs as a rookie. Yep. But not just because he hit 52 home runs, because his exit velocity stand out so much from everybody else. It was kind of overkill in the juice ball era.

He didn't need to hit the ball that hard to be a 35, 40 homer guy. But now it means more. And so now I think he's clearly the odds on favorite. Obviously, he leads the majors in home runs already, and I don't think he's going to hit 60 plus. But even from today forward, I think he's the odds on favorite. to lead the majors and home runs. So, yeah, if not for that injury risk, you know, we could talk, I mean, we could probably talk about number one overall, if not for that.

Yeah, I mean, the production is very similar to that of Mike Trout. It's actually been better. It's, you know, can he keep it up? Can he stay healthy? Let's go to 10th overall, Scott. You're up. So I have two third basemen six and seven in my own personal rankings. I'm going to go with the higher ranked of those two, Manny Machado.

who the difference between him and obviously the other one's Raphael Devers the difference mainly is stolen bases Mani Machado we've seen be a pretty good base dealer in the past but it's been hit or miss over the years he's clearly running this year though and in terms of what he's done as a hitter it's been great obviously it's been more than he can sustain but at the same time I I His stat cast page is full of red. He was, as good as he was last year, he was one of the biggest underachievers in terms of expected stats. So he should have been even better last year.

And he has a history as a first round viable bat during his days with the Orioles. So I think to lock up third base with somebody who's actually going to make a difference there and set my team apart, I think that's the position where you can most clearly set your team apart. from your competition is third base. And I want to do it. I want to do it with my first round pick. I'll go a little further.

You've got Machado and Devers back to back, but obviously it's just an ordinal ranking. I don't know what the gap between six and seven is. I don't actually think it's all that close between them. I think Machado is a comparable hitter to Raphael Devers. I think you can make an argument that he's as good or better. And he steals bases. So I think Machado clearly stands out.

If you're looking to elevate people because of third base, I think Devers is a reasonable choice. But I think Devers is more like a second rounder. And Machado is a clear first rounder for me. I know it hasn't been that way so far. I think Mani Machado is going to have a, at season's end, it'll be a 20, 30 point gap in batting average. And I would expect Devers to have more home runs too.

But yeah, they're both. Machado is a great hitter too. I'm not trying to sell that short. I just think Devers is a little better as far as that goes. In Points League, he's walking a lot more than Devers. I don't know how sustainable that is, but that's been the case so far, at least. This is kind of a thing I want to stress by having the... So in my own personal top seven, I have three-third basemen.

If we're going back to a pre-juice ball standard, then I think that also means. going back to a time when position scarcity is more of a thing, a time when adhering to the tiers approach and drafts made even more sense because certain positions are going to have fewer impact players than other positions. And as in not enough to go around, not enough to go around even in a 10-team league, much less a 12-team league. and I think third base is

it stands out as the the number one position for that right now. I mentioned second base also to a degree, but second base doesn't have as many good choices on the high end. So I think we might be going back to a day where it's like, I think back to my earliest days doing this.

It was Hanley Ramirez and Troy Toulouydski were the great hitting short stops. And after that it was like, I don't know, maybe Jimmy Rollins is in there sometimes. Maybe you're taking a shot on Brad Miller had taken a big step forward. Like it gets really bad after the studs.

And I think we may be returning to that. I will say, though, man, outfield might be like that now too. Like, there's always, there are so many players who play outfield. But every time I do my rankings, I just, I hit like 18 to 20. And I'm just like, I don't know if anybody else is good. Like, I've got Sayy Suzuki and Kyle Schwabre and Brian Reynolds all in my top 25 or top 30 still. And like, I don't actually know if any of those guys are good. I think you kind of see it reflected here too, Chris, because seven of the first 10 picks are outfielders.

So, you know, we clearly want to get our hands on those elite bats, those elite outfielders. And that's kind of been the case so far here in this draft. I will point out with Machado. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer. I think that he's awesome. But I also think that he's kind of running hot with batting average right now. Sure. Sure, obviously. A 406 Babbib. He's not going to maintain that.

So just keep that in mind moving forward, but he's still amazing. Chris, you are up 11th overall. So I've got Shohayotani here. It's been a little bit of a disappointing start. But when a disappointing start means that you're on a 35 homer 25 steel pace, you're a pretty awesome player. And that's not even getting into the fact that, I've got him as a top 20 starting pitcher.

You know, if you're in a format where you can use both his hitting and pitching stats at all times, I still think he's a candidate for the number one pick. And honestly, he might just be the number one pick. It might not even be worth discussing if you can actually get all of those stats. Oh, yeah. Yeah, you can get them all. Yeah, I agree. But the nice thing is like, okay, say you're disappointed by his hitting so far.

Well, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball, too. So, you know, it's frustrating when you can't get both of those and when you do have to make a decision. And more often than not, the decision should be just use him as a hitter because you're going to get more opportunities for stats. But yeah, the elite production from two different spots, it doesn't hurt. And yeah, I don't know. Like I said, a disappointing start where he's on a 35 home or 25 steel, 110 run, 105 RBI pace. that's pretty awesome so yeah

yeah I still feel very good about show you at Tony as a batter his strikeout rate is way down so like the the most concerning aspect of his profile

is improved even and he's still elite and quality of contact yeah I think pretty much everything still suggests like he won't be as good as he was last year probably

but he doesn't have to be to be worth this spot yep and just as a pitcher, I know you touched on it, Chris. He's ranked inside the top 20 starting pitchers for each of us. So again, if you play

in a daily lineup league where you can get all of Otani's stats, pitcher and hitter, he's likely the first overall pick. As a pitcher this season, he's second in K-minus walk rate, fourth in X-FIP, second in Sierra. He's just he's awesome. He is

a unicorn. 12th overall for me, I'm debating a few different directions here. A couple of hitters that don't steal, but we've got that kind of position scarcity argument for them. Another hitter that does steal that's kind of gotten off to a slow start. And I'm going to go in that direction. I'm going to take Boba Chet.

I'm not overly confident about it. And Chris, like you, I have as well. Chris, like you, I kind of struggle with the not a great actual hitter, lower OPS bat, but someone that can, when he's right, go 30-20, or a 30-20 pace for the rest. rest of the season. So I think the Blue Jays lineup will be better rest of season. So far Boba Chet, batting 240. He's got six homers. He's got four steals. The expected numbers say that Boba Shett should actually be much better than what he's been thus far. He's not going to walk very much,

so that hurts him in points leagues. There are a few different directions you can go. I don't know that this is the right answer, but I'm going to go with Boba Shett 12th overall. I have him 19th. So there are a few different directions I would go. But, you know, if he, If he ends up performing like a first rounder the rest of the way, it certainly wouldn't surprise me. All right. So that top 12, go ahead, Chris. And the biggest issue he's had, if you look at like the pitch level stuff, is he's not hitting fastball as well. That I feel like will reverse itself. He's been a very good fastball hitter throughout his career. So I think he'll be much better moving forward.

The first round for us here, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Mookiee Betts, Ronald Acuna, Trey Turner, Juan Soto. And then Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Mani, Machado, Shoahe Otani, and Bo Bichette. Let's take a break. But first, just a reminder, to join our Fantasy Baseball Today Facebook group, if you haven't already. Lots of fun questions being asked.

Just a great community right now. Waiver questions, Dynasty, trades, whatever you've got, you can throw it in there, post it up, and people will respond. Have some fun there. Again, that's facebook.com slash groups slash fantasy baseball today. We'll take a break, and we'll be back right after this.

Let's jump into the second round. of our redraft, rest of season. Move a little bit quicker on these picks. And 13th overall, Scott, I have a feeling I know where you're going. Well, yeah, because you have my list is brought here. It's the one that's published.

Yeah, Jordan Alvarez, I think, is a pretty easy call here. Way, way, wait, Scott. You skipped somebody. Oh, neither of you took Devers. No, we didn't. Oh, geez. Okay.

Well, then. Raphael Devers. That's an even, easier call. Yeah, he's my seventh overall player. And he has been, he just seems to keep getting better as a hitter. It just seems to keep getting better. He has, he's one of the few who I think his opposite field power still translates.

He's a guy who likes to drive it the opposite way, and he drives it the opposite way with enough authority that even with the ball being deadened, he can still send it out that way. And, yeah, I mean, I just, I have no. I have no reservations about him as a hitter, and he happens to be one of the few standouts at that terrible position. So Raphael Devers. Definitely considered him with that 12th overall pick

that I made with Bobaichette. Rafi Devers is awesome. One of those top 11 in Rodo right now, three third baseman inside of that top 11. He's amazing. Chris, you're up with the 14th overall pick. Yeah, I'll go with Freddie Freeman, who is another guy who hasn't really moved

in my rankings one way or the other. so far. I think I had him 12th coming into the season. I believe I have him 12th overall right now. He hasn't been quite as good as we'd hoped, but the underlying numbers are all still terrific. He's still hitting a ton of line drives. He's still hitting the ball really hard in the air. So like a 297 batting average is excellent. I don't think it's fluky. I don't think he's someone who could easily hit 320. and I wouldn't blink and I think there's a lot more power coming than we've seen. So Freeman is, he's just about a perfect hitter. And, you know, first base isn't third base, but it's not like we're, you know,

it's not like we've got too many good first basemen these days either. So I, um, I'm happy to take the best position. But yeah, I mean, in terms of, in terms of elite bats. Yep. Yeah, yeah, maybe. It gets real thin real quick, too, though. Unless you got a lot of faith in, like, C.J. Crone and Reese Hoskins and Josh Bell, who we all liked, but...

I mean, Crohn's been... Yeah, he's been very good. I'm not saying he deserves to be drafted in the first two rounds. Yeah, no, he's been awesome, but, you know, because he's my number seven first baseman. Yeah. That's the profit pocket, baby. Yeah, I mean, it's been somewhat profitable.

Yeah, sure has. Freddie Freeman, I think more power is coming the 5.6% home run to flyball ratio way down from his career. I didn't realize it was that low, yeah. No, it's nearly one, it actually is one-third of where he's been at in his career. So I think more power coming for Freddie Freeman. That's wild. He also has three steals, the same amount as Mookie Betts, who went as the third overall pick in this draft. And for me, 15th overall, another player that I was debating at the end of the first round. That is Yordaun Alvarez.

Scott, you mentioned him already. and if you look at his just kind of expected numbers and stat-cast data side-by-side with Aaron Judge, it's very similar. He's kind of just the left-handed Aaron Judge right now. Lots of batting average. I know it hasn't come yet. He's only hitting 246, but his bad-up is very low. His expected batting average, 323 for Alvarez. He walks a ton.

He makes a lot of contacts, crushes the ball, one of the best lineups in baseball with the Houston Astros. Yep. He's I think we're kind of past this knee concern that we had the past couple of years too. So Aaron Judge, uh, Aaron Judge. Eurton Alvarez, his 15th overall for me. Yeah, one of the safest sources of power at a time when power is very questionable. So I, I actually had him in my first round. All right.

16th overall, your backup's got his teammate, Kyle Tucker is who I'm going to go with here. For the second straight year, he's trailing his expected stats. but obviously that came to fruition last year. He ended up performing up to that level. Doesn't strike out much. I think the most encouraging thing about Kyle Tucker is that he's doubled down as a base stealer. After how many did he have last year?

Like 14? It was a range of stolen bases where it wouldn't take much for him just to become not a base dealer anymore. Well, he's already at 9 this year. So he's gone the other way. He's made that even more of a, a focal point of his game, even though he's not that fast.

Well, it doesn't matter as long as you're running. Yeah, so I think Kyle Tucker, it's kind of, like, I prefer him to Bo Bichette, two bounce back candidates there. You mentioned Bo Bichette's expected stats look good. Tucker's look even better. Yep. Plus, Tucker's been the more,

the more prolific base dealer so far. The only thing I would say regarding Tucker versus Bichette is, Tucker is still hitting curiously low in that lineup. He still hits no higher than fifth, off in sixth a lot of days. And that's going to cost him counting stats. You know, especially if we think these two lineups are fairly similar.

You know, Boba Chet already has, what is it, 15 more plate appearances in the same number of games. So that's not a huge deal. But over the course, you know, it's an extra plate appearance every four games or so. But, you know, if you think they're fairly close, that could be a tiebreaker. So I think it's, I also think it's reasonable to think that it's not that close and Tucker's better. Yeah.

No, those are definitely two reasonable takes there between those players. And Tucker's hitting 240. His XBA is 296. The nine steals in 43 games, that is a 31 steel pace over 150 for Kyle Tucker. So as you cited, Scott, You love to see it. Chris, you're back up. 17th overall. All right, let's break the seal. Let's get our first pitcher out here. And I was, I've kept Garrett Cole as my number one starting pitcher all year until 20 seconds ago.

But I moved Corbyn Burns, one spot ahead of him in the overall rankings, one spot ahead of him in the starting pitcher rankings. So I will take Corbyn Burns. They've actually been very similar so far this season, both of their strikeout rates. are slightly down from last season, but they're both still in the 10.5K per 9 range. I just, I think the evidence suggests that since the sticky substance ban, Cole is still an awesome pitcher, but I think Burns is better.

And you know what flipped it in Burns favor for me just now? Same number of starts. He's thrown six and a third more innings. which I found quite surprising. I can't remember. Garikold did have the one outlier short start, one in the two-thirds innings that could be skewing that,

but I don't necessarily think that Corbyn Burns is at like an innings deficit anymore at least. All right. Yeah, I think Burns is a clear number one that Cole is number two, actually. Though I do have Cole number two. All right, and will I select Garacol?

No, not yet. 18th overall, I am going to go with Luis Robert. I loved them coming into the season and nothing has really changed to kind of dissuade me from believing in Luis Robert. The strikeout rate is actually down again, so he's

making a ton of contact. He's hitting 285. He's got six homers, six deals. He's missed some time. He's on the COVID list right now when we're recording this, but the expected numbers are awesome. And the ground ball rate is curiously high for Luis Robert. And based on what we've seen before 2020, I would expect that to drop back down a little bit and hopefully we see more power coming.

And overall, the White Tocs lineup just improving. Jose Ibrahimiru hasn't lived up to expectations. Neither has Yosmani Grandal. So that should lead to more accounting stats for Luis Robert. To recap the first half of round two, Raphael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Yordaun Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Corbyn Burns, and Luis Robert. Scott, you are up 19th overall. So I will go ahead and take Garrick Cole here, number 19.

Don't really need to get too much into that, but I will just point out that our top 19, our combined top 19 now are the same as my individual top 19 in terms of the names. Obviously, I've talked about some of the differences in the order, but through 19 picks, it's my top 19. All right, Gary Cole got off to the slow start this season, but his last six starts.

He's got a 2.45 ERA, 2.19 X-FIP, 50 strikeouts to five walks over 40 and a third innings pitched. It looks a lot. He's still great. I get the sense people are disappointed in Garrett Cole, but he's not he's not like an outlier at starting pitcher anymore, but he's still amazing and you don't need to be disappointed. All right, now's where things get interesting because

the easy 19 are down. Yeah. And you are up, Chris, 20th overall. So for me I have a starting pitcher and I would guess we all have starting pitchers ranked next because it feels it does feel like there's a drop in hitter quality.

My next hitter is George Springer who's been a little disappointing. So I'm going to go with Carlos Rodon who is my number three starting pitcher and it's sort of like Trout and Judge and I don't know if there's any other players like that so far, but if there were no questions about health, I think you could make a case that Carlos Rodon would be the number one starting pitcher.

On a per inning basis, he's been as good or better than anyone in baseball since the start of last season, leads the majors in case per nine, leads the National League in FIP, even though his ERA is 343. I um and and the thing is he's doing it just by throwing fastballs he's just throwing like 70% fastballs and that's an amazing pitch but his slider is also an amazing pitch so it it's the kind of thing where if he needs to make some kind of an adjustment I think Carlos Rodon is well equipped to do that so yeah he's uh he's my my pick for the number three starting pitcher and the number 19 number 20 player overall. Chris, my question to you would be, why not who I'm about to select and take Kevin

Gosman over Carlos Rodon? Doesn't have the same injury concerns. The swinging strike rate is higher. The control has been amazing. Five walks over his first nine starts. The underlying metrics are even better than Carlos Rodon. I have Gosman as my SP3 right now in the ranking. So I'll take him with this pick, but why not Gosman over Rodon? I feel like I'm better at predicting performance than I am injury and I have fewer concerns about Carlos Rodon's performance than I do Kevin Gossman's. Kevin Gossman is pitching out of his mind right now. He's been incredible. But there's a reason that he was being drafted lower than his surface stats last season. And that's because he struggled pretty mightily in the second half. And we haven't really seen the full season of ace level production.

Remember, Kevin Gossman was this good to start last season. And then slipped in the second half. So no, it's nothing against Kevin Gosman, but I've got him sixth at starting pitcher, which is quite high. Yeah, it sure is. But he's more like a third round pick for me. I updated the rankings recently, and I felt weird myself, just putting Kevin Gosman as my third ranked pitcher. It just, it didn't feel right. How is he in the conversation with Burns and Garrett Cole? But he's been that awesome. So the last three picks have been starting pitchers. Garrett Cole, Carl Svrodon, Kevin Gosman. Scott, will you keep it, keep it rolling here?

I will. This will be the last pitcher that is in my own personal top 24, and it's a different, this happens to be my number three pitchers, so we each have a different number three pitcher, but all three of ours are in my top two rounds. Anyway, so mine's Justin Verlander, who's actually been the best pitcher in fantasy so far, and I just think, I just think he's unimpeachable. Like, he's, the innings are going to be there. The wins are going to be there. Like, even among the high end guys

we're naming, he seems particularly bankable, which seems weird to say for a guy to coming back from Tommy John, but he's also Justin Verlander. He's arguably the best pitcher of his generation. And so why, why would you have reason to doubt him? Swinging strike rates down some, but it's been rising lately. I think he's awesome.

All righty, Justin Verlander. He's currently the second overall player in Roto. He's the SP1 in fantasy points per game. Strikeout, swinging strike rate down a little bit, but he's going deep. Rations are awesome. Pitches for a great team. I think it makes a ton of sense. He's in my top five starting pitchers as well.

Chris, you are up 23rd overall. And technically your last pick. So make it count. So I do have mine. I do want to be clear that I think there is a sizable drop-off. at this point. And you can go any number of ways. I'm going to go with the guy that I was very high on coming into the season,

who I still continue to like. And I think better days are coming. And that's George Springer, who I mentioned was my top ranked hitter remaining a couple picks ago. I'm sure I'm on an island there. But I just, I continue to believe in the batted ball skills. I think the power will be even better moving forward.

And I think 272 average, I would take the over moving forward. So I still believe in George Springer. And I think that faith kind of coincides with just having faith in the Blue Jays lineup, bouncing back, Vlad and Bichette and Springer, obviously, and to Oscar Hernandez, who we spoke about recently on the podcast, if they can all get back on track, then better days are coming forward. Yeah, and I want to say, like, I have faith in George Springer, too.

I just, I do think there are a few hitters I would consider over him. That's all. including one you really like Chris and who are those hitters I have the last pick I don't get to make any more picks of the draft Mr. Irrelevant but actually

quite relevant hmm oh this is tough I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go with Paul Goldschmidt who is definitely not the flashy pick here but he has just been so rock solid

he got off to a slow start in April same thing happened last year for him as well. He's had an awesome May. He's batting now well over 300. He's got seven homers. He's got three steals. That Cardinals lineup has been awesome so far. Aronado, nice bounce back for him. The young kids are up. Juan Yuppez has looked great. Nolan Gorman, hopefully he can add to that lineup. Harrison Bader running at will. So I like this lineup. I know he's kind of old and boring, but power, speed, batting average. Paul Goldschmidt, 24th overall for me. But honestly, I think there's 10 different directions that you could have gone with this pick, honestly.

Yeah, can I mention one? Sure. This is who I would have taken if I had another pick. He's my 22nd overall player. It's Tim Anderson. Now, Tim Anderson has a 380 Babbitt, which sounds very high. That's just what he does. Right. Last year 372, the year before 383, the year before 399.

So very normal for Tim Anderson to have a 380 Babbitt. But he's batting 3.55. five this season. He's cut his strikeout rate in half. Maybe it's just a small sample size thing, but that is a skill that hitter can improve. If he has become a better contact hitter while still demonstrating that outlier

balls and play ability, this is the most legitimate 350 batting average ever, if that's like one of them. It's a moment. It's comparable to like Jose Altuve, when he was running those kind of batting averages. Right, right.

Like, normally you just look at a number that high batting average. Even if a guy sustains it over a full season, and you say, okay, well, it was just kind of a fluky thing. But it may not be in Tim Anderson's case. Plus, he's running a ton. He, you know, not a huge power source, but he's hitting for enough.

Yeah, I think he deserves to go on the first two rounds. By all... That's an interesting case. I hadn't noticed his K-Rate being down that much. Yeah, by all... accounts that we look at all hitter measurements. This is the best version of Tim Anderson that we've seen. OPS, Wobo, weighted

runs created plus. They're all currently a career high. He's got seven steals and 37 games. That is a 28 steel pace over 150 games. Tim Anderson kind of has this, you know, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout thing where he's struggled to stay on the field for a full

season. But if he can do it, we're probably looking at a, you know, 2020 case batting average well over 300 and a bunch of runs scored. He has increased his chase rate to the highest of his career. It's actually tying a career high. But he's making contact on pitches outside of the strike zone, 68% of the time, which is also a career high.

He's making contact on pitches inside of the strike zone, 88% of the time. That's also a career high. So he's just making contact with everything right now. And it's not leading to weak contact. You know, his hard hit rate is 59 percentile. that's pretty normal for him. Actually, well above his career normal.

It's normal based on last season. His average eggs of velocity seems mostly fine. Like he's managing to make a lot more contact without sacrificing the quality of the contact. And that's a hard trick to pull off. But Tim Anderson's career is kind of defined by pulling off hard tricks. It's hard to have a 360 career babbip or whatever it is.

But he does. So now that's a good point. Can I... I didn't really consider moving him up this high, but he's not that far off, and he's actually ranked higher than the guy Frank took 24th for me. So I'm just going to say the name,

and this is a name that Frank mentioned last night. I can't remember if we were on the air or not. But we might as well just mention him. How far is Julio Rodriguez from the second round at this point? I don't think he's that far. far off, honestly. I think he's pretty far. Like, he's on a 2050 pace

without hurting you in batting average. The Mariners have recently moved him to the top half of the lineup. He's an elite... How's not a 2050 pace? How's not a 2050 pace when a slugging percentage is like below 400? He's got five home runs.

And, yeah, five home runs. They all came in May. He's betting over 300 in the month of day. Yeah. It just kind of feels like, like he's still striking out a lot. is he striking up more in May yeah he's striking out

now he's cut it to about 26% in May which is perfectly reasonable he's still running a ton I just it's probably a big assumption that he's going to sustain this steel space that's the main thing I guess

yeah and it totally like it totally rely and going this high would totally rely on him doing that yes, I'm just saying it's an elite I'm just saying we're going to do this exercise probably at the All-Star break again

you may have changed your mind by then okay yeah and even if the Steels pace comes down if we're talking about a 2525 hitter with a 280 batting average that's a top 24 players so and I think the Steels pace will slow down

but I didn't think he was going to run this much to begin with. So he's kind of, like he is an outlier in that regard. And the way they're letting him play, maybe he just continues to be an outlier. You know, he was on a 40 steel pace last season at an efficient pace as well. So I just, I wanted to mention him. Yeah, that's fair.

Fair enough. A few that just missed the cut here, according to Scott's article, which you should go read, go check it out on the site. Jose Altuve, Nolan Aronado. Actually, Pete Alonzo was Scott's 24th overall player, so we didn't even get to him. But Walker Bueller, Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Story, Zach Wheeler, Joe Musgrove. Alec Mn Mnoyle was not on that list, but I think he probably is pushing towards that list.

Byron Buxton. Byron Buxton, who? If not for the playing time issues, because they don't, they're just sitting them so often. Yeah, so those would probably all kind of take up the third round. I'll just ask, we'll wrap up with this one. Scott, where would Fernando Tatis? Do you have an idea of where Tatis would land if you were kind of just playing this draft out a little bit further?

No later than round four. Maybe round three. I kind of wanted to get him in my top two rounds here. It's just, you know, the fact he hasn't even started swinging at bat yet, that makes the timetable very questionable still. If it looked like he was going to be back within a matter of two, three weeks, then I might have been able to get him as high. is round two. All right. Make sense to me. We're going to wrap there for Scott and Chris.

I am Frank. Have a happy and healthy Memorial Day and we will be back again tomorrow. Bye-bye.