Fantasy Baseball Today - Redrafting the First Two Rounds & PCA Lessons Learned! (7/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2025

Cal Raleigh won the Home Run Derby (2:25)! ... What can we learn from missing on Pete Crow-Armstrong this year (5:55)? ... Let's redraft the first two rounds for the second half (19:16)! The top seven players feels like the end of a tier. ... We wound up with two starting pitchers in the first round (31:08). ... Pete Crow-Armstrong kicks off the second round (42:30). ... Paul Skenes over Garrett Crochet (47:04)? ... Julio Rodriguez still finds his way into the second round (54:50). Fantasy Baseball Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Subscribe to our YouTube channel: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠youtube.com/FantasyBaseballToday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Download and Follow Fantasy Baseball Today on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sptfy.com/QiKv⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get awesome Fantasy Baseball Today merch here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://bit.ly/3y8dUqi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow FBT on TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@fbtpod?_t=8WyMkPdKOJ1&_r=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow our FBT team on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@FBTPod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CPTowers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@CBSScottWhite⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Roto_Frank⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join our Facebook group at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/groups/fantasybaseballtoday⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for the FBT Newsletter at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/newsletters/fantasy-baseball-today/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For more fantasy baseball coverage from CBS Sports, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ You can listen to Fantasy Baseball Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast." To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Redrafting the first two rounds. Will Pete Crow Armstrong make the cut?

Yes, yes, he will. Don't worry about that. Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on Tuesday, July 15th. I am Frank Stamphle, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we will be redrafting the first two rounds rest of season. Top 24 players heading into the second half. We'll have some quick takeaways from the first half of the season,

anything that stood out to us. And a quick thought on the home run derby. It is in the book's Big Dumber! Get it done. Defeats Junior Camerreau. You almost got that one, Chris. You gave out a long shot bed, and Camerero was awesome, man. He almost took it down.

it was it was close you know what the kid robbing the home run threw him off it really did because I think that was like his 12th home run or seventh home run and his pace really slowed down from that point on so uh

that catch was great by the way it was a good catch did I did feel a little bad they kept like going back to the kids like you don't have to you don't have to show him he knows he knows he messed up all right even a teenager is aware that that he shouldn't have done that

Did that actually take away a home run? No. No, they gave it to him, but yeah, they counted it. Really? I didn't watch it. Yeah, it threw him off his, it threw Junior Camerrero off his game. He was like trying to figure out if it counted. I personally, I think they should call it a draw.

Oh, yeah? Yeah. Come on. Big Dumber. No, the year of Big Dumber. Of course he won. Oh, yeah. He will be mentioned today as well.

Top two rounds, rest of season. O'Neil Cruz. 500 plus foot home run in the home run derby. I actually kind of like this format. I know they've gone back and forth. I think they've kind of settled on something nice here. The only thing I didn't like, the tiebreaker in the first round between Raleigh and Rooker being a decimal of how far the ball went.

Just have a swing off. Like, why not? There is no way that stack has can be that accurate. To a tenth of an inch, 470 feel like they're estimating distance traveled based on Launch angle speed like wind like there's no way that Stackass can be that accurate That bothered me greatly and Brent Rooker was yeah Red Rooker was pissed off about it soon and football I kind of like how stupid that is though

I think that's how they should define they should do the tiebreaker they should have one guy with a tape measure or walk all the way to where the ball landed And he has to be 75 years old or older. Yeah, I will say, and weirdly jacked, like all NFL referees are these days. I will say, O'Neill Cruz hitting a 513 home run foot home run in the home run derby. It just highlights how rare that is. And like, you know, growing up pre-statcast, I used to say, oh my God, do you see that 500 foot home run? Gary Sheffield hit? No, you didn't.

Because guys don't hit 500 foot home runs. It basically never happens. We've had the Stackcast era for 12 years now, or 11 seasons something. There have been three 500-foot home runs in the last 11 seasons. John Carlos Dan, Nomar Mazar, and C.J. Cron. Love that list. That's a hilarious list of players. It does take a little bit of the magic away from the home run, the fact that we know how far they go.

You know what? If anyone was going to hit a 500-foot homer back in the day, Gary Sheffield would have been the one to do it. So shout out to Big Dumper. He wins the Home Run Derby. All-Star game going on later today, later tonight, whenever you're listening to this podcast. So it should be a lot of fun as well. Before we get into this redraft, one major takeaway from the first half or, I don't know, just kind of talking through some thoughts, whatever has happened thus far. Scott, what stands out, man? How was the first half?

Well, the first, I think the biggest story, fantasy-wise, of the first half, was the guy you mentioned at the very top of the show, Pete Crow Arms. And believe it or not, I have been ruminating over this quite a bit. Like, what could I, what did I miss on Pete Crow Armstrong? I mean, in retrospect, now that there's a full amount of data here, I mean, I can look at why he's succeeding, the very high pole air rate. And I think that that's a big story of this season two is just the introduction of that stat, of that stat. to a player's baseball savant page and how it fills in so many of the gaps

with that existed and expected stats previously and how do you explain why a player underperformed as expected stats are overperformed well a lot of times it just comes down to pull air rate but that's you know that's kind of a tangent um you know Pete Crow Armstrong I had him as a bust all three of us had him as a bust you know it's he's been such a topic of conversation

here throughout the first half um within kind of the fantasy community that I know most everybody had him as a bust, which meant he was awfully affordable in drafts. And I have been struggling the last five years or so with how to get an edge. Because I feel like the first 10, 12 years,

I did have a nice edge in playing fantasy baseball and it was something I was very confident in my ability. And I felt like I was a dangerous person to go up against in leagues. Like people were a little scared whenever I was in their league. And, you know, that felt good. I want that surge of power back. But there's become such a consensus around players with the introduction of statcast. And we kind of just analyze players all the same way

and come to basically the same conclusions as we did with. with Pete Crow Armstrong. And so I'm wondering if a market inefficiency exists here that can give me that edge. If there is a guy who had pretty good minor league numbers, had some prospect pedigree, but people are looking at the data points we always look at and decide, eh, probably not that big of a deal.

And so he slides in drafts, Maybe that's somebody you should just target for the sake of it? Because it's not, if it goes bad, it's probably, it's, it's, the cost isn't high enough that it's really going to sidetrack your season. I'm not saying you do this with the guy, you know, who's a fifth round pick, but, you know, Crow Armstrong was sliding into the 12th, 13th round. You don't lose that much by missing on that pick. Well, so yes, I agree there. Like the, you know, if they fall far enough, but the problem is, okay, it works with P. Kour Armstrong.

But, well, what was there to make us believe that something like this was going to happen? Again, minor league track record. No, his minor league track record was pretty good. Yeah. But like, he had between double A and AAA, he had 25 homers and 133 games at 21 slash 22. Not young or not old, but not like so young that you're like, oh, you can just build on those numbers. He's been better than he was in the minor. So that's the thing I'm sure.

It's like AAA? How young do you expect? He had an 820 OPS in two seasons as a 21 and 22 year old. He doesn't walk at all. So the OBPs. Right, but he's not walking now. Right. But he's hitting for much more.

Right. No, but I'm saying he's hitting like he's had 25 homers in 90 games. 95 games right now. He had 11 and 60 games at AAA. So that, I agree that like, completely fading piquor Armstrong at the price that he was at, clearly a mistake. There was something there.

But I don't know if there's like a lesson to be learned there because he's just gotten so much better. That's what I'm trying to decide because I'm not sure I'm totally, look, Cal Raleigh, I feel fine. not predicting him to be the first 50 homer catcher. Like, yeah, he had power, but it was 30, 35 Homer power. He was a known quantity at that point. And there was no reason to think he was going to take this big leap.

But Pete Crow Armstrong wasn't a known quantity. We just had minor league data. He was a very young guy, not literally a rookie, but basically a rookie. And so I think, okay, let's look at some comps here. historical comps, mooky bets. Mookie bets came up just before the inception of Stackast. And years before we really knew what to do with Stackass, certainly before I took Stackass seriously.

If I saw the data, the same data points for Mookie Betz when he first came up, and I'll say, you know, when Mookie Betts came up, I was a big believer, I was pushing him hard. I certainly wasn't the only one, but I was very much on board with Mookie Betts when he first got called up. It turned out great. If I had seen those data points for Mookie Betts when he came up, I might have faded him. And I know, like I worked with Al Malkyore at the time. He was always into the cutting edge stuff data-wise.

Again, Stackcast didn't exist there. But he was looking at stat-cast-type things. Like, I know home run distance for Mookie Betz was a sticking point for him. And he was, you know, he's a little more reluctant to embrace Mookiee-Bets than I was because of that. And I was like, oh, come on. He's, like, his Mookie Betz. Like, he's crushed it everywhere he's gone, and he's crushing it in the majors so far.

And, like, I think you're overthinking this one. And obviously it played out the way it played out. Mookie Betz has been a generational type of player. But what I, if I had, if I knew then what I know that now, would I have been, would I have been taking this stance? more like Al did. Maybe. And it would have been a mistake.

Sure. Yeah. I think the way to maybe put it would be giving the young guys who struggle and not just in terms of production, but in terms of their snack cast quality. Pekar Armstrong's snack cast quality has just gotten better in his second season. It's not like he's the same guy he was last season and is just putting up better numbers. He's playing better. But that can always happen with the player that young.

Right. what I'm saying. I think that's the biggest takeaway for me. Is give grace to the young guys when they struggle. Is that a young player can improve? Now, I think PCA is kind of like 99th percentile outlier. And on top of that, too, I think he's such an extreme example because he's a freak athlete, too, right?

Like, I think that there are players that can kind of outperform stat-cast data or our expectations of them or PCA was regarded as a defense-first player. same thing with Francisco Lindor before he got called up and then Lindor became this awesome offensive player, fantasy player as well I think that there are just there are certain prospects that are just like

such ridiculously good athletes that they can improve so drastically quickly that we didn't even see it coming or at least we didn't see it coming other people might have you know. That's a heuristic I've tried to apply this guy's a baseball player for lack of a better term

like the guys who are just so good at everything and have such a good sense of how to play baseball. And I think Peter Armstrong is a good example of this in a way that a similarly talented player like maybe Jason Dominguez is not quite as good of an example of this. And that's not to say he won't get better, but like Jason Dominguez has been a professional for six or seven years and he's still like weirdly terrible a defense and kind of a mess on the base paths.

And like maybe that's, maybe there's something to be drawn there. where, like, Francisco Lendor just like, mooky bets. Like, these dudes just know how to play baseball at like, it's, there's, maybe there's not a stat conclusion. Just going back to like the old timey, like, you know, he walks the right way and his girlfriend's hot kind of thing that they talk about in Moneyball. Like, you know, maybe, maybe you mix in a little bit of that.

The one thing I will say is there was one guy I really thought this was going to be true about. And it was Cabrion Hayes and it never came together for that guy. I mean, injuries played their part, but that was a guy that I was like, he's just a good baseball player and he's going to figure out the hitting. But here's the thing, here's the distinction between Hayes and Crow Armstrong. Crow Armstrong produced in the minors. And Hayes didn't really. And so I feel like, interesting that you brought up money ball, I feel like there's sort of this horseshoe theory thing developing among baseball within baseball analysis. And it kind of refers back to the Moneyball time where, you know, the critique in Moneyball was all the scouts were saying, this guy looks like a ball player.

And then down here at the base of the horseshoe you got, but does he produce? And now over here on the other side of the horseshoe opposite from the scouts, you have this guy's data makes them look like a player. And then you go back to the base of the horseshoe, the middle, and it's like, but does he produce? Yeah. And at the end, production is what it's about. And, you know, have we gotten so, just like old scouts used to be so in love with the aesthetics of a player, the data heads now are all caught up in the data that they're missing the same thing the old scouts were missing, which is does he produce? And Crowe Armstrong had a history of production. So, yeah, it wasn't hitting 40 home runs in the minors.

Hardly anybody does. Chris, I'll give you an opportunity later on in the week. If you have things you want to bring up about the first half, obviously we're not going to get to them today because, no, I think it was a good conversation. But, you know, we've obviously got to move on to this redrafting the first two rounds. So we'll table that for later in the week. It's a good conversation. I think people want to hear things like that too.

So this is the only time that we could do it during the All-Star. We have a little room to stretch our legs. Yeah. Before we hit our first break, tomorrow or today when you're listening to this on Tuesday, we will be doing a MLB draft recap, early first-year player draft rankings, some prospect talk with our buddy Chris Welsh.

That will be at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on YouTube. So if you want to come watch along before the All-Star game starts, feel free to come by. Obviously, it'll be on demand as a podcast as well. Big thanks to those watching us live right now. Make sure to hit the like button and subscribe on YouTube as well. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today.

Redrafting the first two rounds for the second half of the season. I think we'll mostly talk about this from a roto slash category's perspective, but we can throw in some commentary if somebody would move up or down based on being in a points league. Obviously, we can mention those things as well. So we will alternate picks. We'll try to get through the first two rounds, as I mentioned. And Scott, you are up with a 101. Man, you give me the easy one.

I think Aaron Judge is, it's kind of shocking how much he's distanced himself from number two on this list. But he has become an even bigger outlier for batting average than home runs, which is really saying something because he is one of the historic all-time great home run hitters. But now he's turned himself into this 360 hitter to go with it. And I'm sorry. nobody else can match that. If you're going to be, if you're going to homer like at a 50 to 55 homer pace

while leading the league in batting average. And look, I don't know that he's going to be able to sustain quite 360, but it's going to be a really, really good batting average when all said and done. And so, yeah, Judge, clear number one. Current pace for Aaron, Judge, 59 homers, 144 run scored, 138 RBI and 10 steals,

averaging 4.7 fantasy points per game. that's 0.4 more than Cal Raleigh and Otani, who are tied for second right now in points per game. Chris, over to you with the 102. Yeah, there's no question. Aaron Judge is the number one pick. I think number two is a legitimate open question, and I'm not sure I've got the right answer.

I'm going to go with Shohei Otani. That's why I would take. Because he's still on a 55 homer pace, I'm pretty sure. He's on like 155 run pace. Here's where it gets questionable, though. His pace for stolen bases is pretty close to 20. His pace since he started pitching again is two. He's only attempted one steal since he got back on the mound.

I don't know if that's a coincidence or something that's likely to stick moving forward, but, you know, when before that, he was on like a 20-25 steel pace. and I think I would still take Aaron Judge over him, but I think you could make it a discussion. If he's more, even just a 10-steel guy, I don't think it matters. I'm not sure he's better than Ronald Acuna. Otani, by the way, still on pace for 53 homers,

151 runs, 20 steals, though, as you mentioned, that steel pace has gone down. And as a pitcher, nine innings, one run, 10 strikeout so far, has yet to exceed 36 pitches in a start. and the Dodgers are very clearly bringing him along very slow. What if it is a daily league, though? It's not enough to get Otani ahead of judge? Not for me.

I don't think so, not with how long this buildup could take. It's probably like 40 more innings the rest of the way I would guess. Is 40 innings of Otani enough? They're moving him up in increments of five pitches per star. It's just taking so long. I don't think that he can be that impactful, you know what I'm saying? Okay. Yeah.

Maybe I'm wrong about that. I just wanted to ask the question. Yeah. I think it's a fair question. I would still take judge in a daily league. Third pick. All right. Third pick goes to me.

I feel like this is completely wide open. And maybe I'm just kind of anchoring to some preseason takes here. But I'm going to go ahead and take Bobby Witt, Jr., who is having a down season by his standard so far. The OPS is down. The ISO is down. Power is down. So far this season, the average XIVority is actually up.

and the Royals aren't doing him any favors. The counting stats are not so impressive, but he's still on pace for 23 homers, 42 steals. I think we could see the power tick up, and maybe he's more like a 300 hitting 30 homer, 40 steel pace guy rest of season. Yeah, he's surged to the finish line here in the first half. Bobby Witt, final 26 games, 343 batting average,

six home runs in those 26 games for steals. And I think that's going to spring boredom to a huge second half. So I'd pick with third also. This is the first real question in my mind with these first two rounds. I've got a conia third. All right. I just think he's the better hitter. And it's more, I think it'll be more like a 25 to 30, steel pace.

Maybe you should go ahead and make the fourth pick then. Well, he can't do that because, Scott, you're up. Will you take Acuna? Yeah. Yeah. I have Acuna fourth. there's probably about he's he's among those in the discussion for the third pick where Witt went here there's about five players in that discussion I think for Roto but I will consider Akunia my second choice of them

and take him forth overall and he hasn't shown much inclination to run coming back from his second torn ACL he has four steals But I think given what he's doing as a hitter, it's reasonable to expect like a 40-home or 20-steal pace going forward, probably with a good batting average, though he is striking out more than that ridiculous year he had two years ago. Still, the expectation is a good batting average, 40-home or 20-steel pace. That's enough. That's enough to earn him a place in the top five here and specifically fourth. You know, we mentioned Otani's stolen base pace.

Worth pointing out, Ocuna's got 39, sorry, not stolen base pace, run pace. Acuna's got 49 and 45 games. Yeah. Did you know, I don't think we talked about this. Yeah, he's batting third. Brian Snicker said, I believe it was in Acuna's rookie or sophomore season. He said he'd never bat him. He'd never move him out of the lead off spot again because he did it once.

Yeah, I don't think it go well. I don't think it really makes sense. I guess you can get pro far up higher in the lineup. but I well the problem is the Braves lineup has like four for most of the season it's had four automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup and so you never have anybody on base ahead of a Coonia true yeah he's got 22 RBI in 45 games that's what they decided they had to move him down to third once Austin Riley got hurt so so yeah that'll that'll change the distribution of runs at RBI there but it's going to be a lot it's fair to say all right Chris you're up with the

at 105? I didn't really need to think about this one too hard. I think it's Jose Ramirez. He was the kind of default number four pick coming into the season. I think he's just the default number five guy now. Like Bobby Witt, he hasn't been quite as good as a hitter as last season. But unlike Bobby Witt, he's more than made up for that with stolen bases. He's on a 50 steel pace, whereas last year his career high was 41, 2.95 bad.

average that's his highest since 2017. Jose Ramirez kind of gets forgotten a little bit. I feel like we don't, he's so consistently awesome that I feel like we just never have to talk about him. But he's having another incredible season. The only thing, the only knock is once again, like 2023, it's more like a 95 run 90 RBI pace rather than last year's 232 combined. So that's the one place that Jose Ramirez does fall short. But the overall production is elite across five categories. Which is so interesting because the Guardians lineup didn't really change that much this offseason. I mean, I guess they lost Josh Naler.

I guess that is kind of a big loss. But, you know, Santana's been okay. I don't know. Menzardo has been fine as well. He got off to a nice start. really kind of tapered off. In talent, it shouldn't be that big of a difference, but it's been a huge drop.

Yep. All right, up to the six pick here. I am between two players and, it is close. I'm going to go with Ellie De La Cruz. I think there's a little bit more dynamic of a skill set here. He's on pace for 30 homers, 121 runs, 106 RBI, 42 steals. That steel pace obviously is down quite a bit

from last year when he had 67. But he has made major improvements. The strikeout rate is way down this year. The expected stats have improved mightily. And he's still one of these guys. I mean, he's so young. He's in the prime of his career where it wouldn't surprise me if he just goes ballistic for a month and just steals a bunch of bags and maybe makes that number up.

But either way, he's still on pace for a 30-40 season. So I'll take L.A. D. La Cruz. I think L.A. D.C.O.C. is basically Bobby Witt, but with a B-minus batting average instead of an A batting average. And he has improved that batting average. just up to 284 this season. It used to be like a C batting average now. It's a B-Mondi.

My only request with L.A. Dela Cruz is like when people talk about him, it makes me think that like when people go on a roller coaster, right? And the roller coaster goes up. These people think that that roller coaster is going to take off and fly into the heavens. And then when it goes down, I think these people think that it's going to go down and burrow into the ground. And like, just ride the ride. Just enjoy the ride and stop like. every single time he's up or down,

this is the new normal, this is who he is, he stinks, or he's the bad. And it's like, no, he's still developing. The whole picture is a really, really good player. We don't need to like hyper-analize every time he goes on a hot streak or a cold streak, you know? To that point, if you play in head-to-head leagues where maybe I don't really know how we quantify weekly consistency,

but knowing that about Ellie De LaCruz, maybe he's a little bit more frustrating. I think I would drop him down a little bit lower in a points league, but if we're just talking about roto categories, I would have him here as the sixth overall player. Yeah, he is because I did this for points leagues too, so I can tell you. Ellie De La Cruz, my 14th player in points leagues versus 16th.

Kyle Tucker's definitely ahead of him in points. All right, Scott, you are up with a 107? Are you taking Kyle Tucker? I am. I am. First, I want to because I know I'm going to get the comments because Ellie Daylor Cruz's batting average is only 10 points behind. Bobby Witts. I'm talking about my expectations for batting average. I'll put it at B,

rather than B minus for L.E. De La Cruz. B batting average for him, A for Bobby Witt. Yes, with the seventh pick, I'm taking Kyle Tucker, and I feel like this marks the end of a tier. I originally had Kyle Tucker third, actually, and it ultimately pushed him all the way down to seventh. I feel like he is a safer bet across all five categories than maybe the four players ahead of him here, but he is not as likely to stand out to, to like carry you in any one of those categories as Cooney at Home Runs, Ellie Down, Cruz and Stolen Bases, Bobby Witton batting average, etc. So Bobby Witton batting average and maybe stolen bases. So, yeah, ultimately Kyle Tucker ends up seventh for me.

but it's not a big gap between seven and three. And in fact, in points leagues where Kyle Tucker's near one-to-one strike-out-to-walk ratio is of benefit. He actually does come in third for me. Yeah, he sustained that improvement from last year, too. That's a big deal. And his underlying numbers are even better than his actual numbers. Yeah, he kind of slumped at the end of the first half. Yeah, I think he had some kind of lingering injury thing that he was playing through.

so I think maybe that kind of affected him for a few weeks. But still on pace for a career high, 37 steals as Kyle Tucker in a contract year, looking for a huge payday this offseason. And very likely that he will get exactly that. Chris, you are up with the 108. And I agree that there is a tier drop here among the hitters. So screw it. Let's get a pitcher at number eight overall.

Let's take Tariq Scoobal, who has. I don't think I need to say. say anything other than this actually. Since the start of the 2024 season, Terrick's scuba leads the majors in ERA, whip by a lot, strikeouts, and wins.

Leads the entire major league in those two categories over a full year and a half plus. He is, there are some really good pitchers out there. I think we're going to talk about at least three more of them over the course of the next 14 or so picks. It's a clear quarter.

net. Yes. Starting pitcher rickies. If Chris Hale hadn't gotten hurt, it would be interesting because he was pitching at that level. I'm a bit of quintet. But I think Terrick Scouble is enough ahead of the crowd, especially with the consistency over the past year and a half, that I am, like, there is no weakness in his game. He pitches deep into the games. He pitches for a great team.

He's got a good defense backing him up. And the skill set is stronger than any other pitcher right now. So he's gotten better. And Scoobles gotten better in every respect that I could see than last year when he was, you know, the number one pitcher in fantasy. He's, Cy Young winner. Yeah. So that's, that's impressive. Yeah.

Scoobel swinging strike rate from his Cy Young season to now, 14.6% to 17.1% which is-Closer territory. Yeah. And his XERA has dropped from 272 to 243. So yeah, just continuing to get better. He is a beast and he is the player. I would have chosen here, but I can't do that now. So completely wide open, and I guess I'm just going to go with a nice, safe, high floor option. And I'm going to take Juan Soto, who had himself a little bit of a slow start,

definitely slumped there in May. But since the start of June, he's hitting 311 with 14 home runs, an OPS over 1100, and he's still on pace for 39 homers, 120 run scored, a career high 18 steals, so chipping that in as well. I don't think he's going to hit 311 the rest of the way, but I think he'll hit something more like 280 or 290, which is better than the 262 he's provided thus far. I mean, so since the start of June slash line for Juan Soto,

311, 455, 659, which sounds ridiculous, but that's basically in line with his expected stats for the season. So since the start of June, he's lived up to his expected stats. And hopefully the seemingly annual panic over Juan Soto has ended and everybody can just be satisfied with the fact that he's awesome again. All right, Scott. We need to again, no more freaking out about Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor ever again. Do not ever do it. So I actually had a player ahead of both Juan Soto and Terrick Scouple.

And I don't like that we're putting so much space here between Scouble and Zach Wheeler because I think they're for fantasy purposes pretty much identical. But I will do it. I will take Corby and Carroll here. And I feel like there are players who we haven't mentioned yet who have out. outperformed Corby and Carroll to this point, even on a per game basis. And yet this also feels like kind of a conservative place to take Carol because we know he's a much more capable base dealer than he's shown so far this year.

Like that total is way below what it should be. And he's underperformed his expected batting average too. So it shows him more as like 270, 275 rather than the, I think he's sub 250 right now. Yeah, 245 right now. Yeah. So I expect him to gain ground in both of those areas, batting average, and stolen bases. And meanwhile, the big leap he's made with home runs, that seems pretty durable because the exit velocities are better, significantly better, average exit velocity. So I think that's power up on his career high. I think that's legit. And so if he gains that ground and stolen bases and batting average like I expect him to, you know, suddenly he's in that top three conversation as well.

but I am happy to take him here at, what is it, 10th? Yeah, 10th overall. The only reason why I didn't take him is he had that chip fracture, and obviously, you know, we're doing this draft for the rest of the season, chip fracture in his wrist. Hopefully it's not an issue, very small sample size, but since returning, he's hitting 167 with a 34% strikeout rate, so I just wonder a little bit about, you know,

that hampering him in the second half. Hopefully it doesn't, though. The difference is the gap. between all these players are tiny. Yeah. So, yeah, I think the seven games is enough to drop him. And as far as the stolen base total, you know, he's got 79. He's at 11 right now.

Yeah, he's got 11 steals, 15 attempts. He's got 79 hits and 46 of them are extra base hits. He also has 31 walks. Yeah. But that probably explains a good amount of the, like, he has 10 triples already. Yeah. In addition to 21 homers. So, yeah, he's a...

I would guess the homer pace slows a little bit, although like Scott said, the quality of contact data is by far better than it's ever been. But there will be more stolen bases as a result, I think. All right, Chris, you're up with the 111. Yeah, 111 for me is James Wood. Ooh. Spicy. I talked over your pick.

Say it again. James Wood, outfielder, Washington. Nationals. This came together just way quicker than I thought it would. He still hasn't reached the point where he's fully optimizing for power, but he has so much power that it doesn't matter. He's on a, what, 40 homer, 20 steel pace. Good batting average. He walks a ton. Striker rate's gotten a little bit better, I think. It's like a point and a half, two points better than it was last season. I think we're at the point where James Wood is a first rounder, and if he starts elevating the ball in the air to the pull side a little bit more, I think he's going to very

quickly be in the conversation for top five. And it honestly, maybe he deserves to be already. If that Nationals lineup was better, maybe he already would be. I'm kind of struggling to understand James Wood. I know. there's a lot of red on the stack house page. But you get a 28% strikeout rate. You've got a sub 10% pull air rate. Most players, like, no matter how much red in their stack has pages, if the pull air rate is that low, they're going to kind of frustrate us.

They might be, they might be good, but they won't live up to their expected stats. And James Wood is completely, and I just kind of willing to go with it, because I think he's that much of a freak. All my statistical biases, my analytical biases, I'm kind of throwing them out the window with James Wood. I have him in my first round as well. I do have one player that we haven't mentioned yet ahead of him. But yeah, I'm perfectly fine with James Wood at 11 here. I think this is another example of exactly what we were talking about earlier, where James Wood is just such a freak athlete outlier that even though his pull air rate is as low as it is, it's almost a testament to his power

that he has 24 home runs while not pulling the ball. The fact that he could just hit his home runs anywhere. When you can flick it at 426 feet the other way, it doesn't really matter. He's a freak outlier athlete and I think that's to his credit

that he has performed this well thus far. Scott, you mentioned this name a little bit while ago and should be going right next to Terrick Scoobel, I believe, and it's kind of crazy that at 35 years old he has somehow become the best version of himself, but I'm going to take Zach Wheeler here who has a 236 ERA,

a 0.86 whip, career high 11.4K per 9. He has improved the walk rate. It's a career best 237 XERA, and only Zach Wheeler and Terrick Scouble are, they're the only two pitchers averaging over 20 fantasy points per game this season. They are separated

by 1.5 fantasy points, total fantasy points this year. So they are both just at the top of the list. He's having his best year ever, too. Supposedly two years away from retirement. But, yeah, that's, hey, my top 12, we came up with the exact same top 12 between the three of us. The order's a little different, but we got the same 12 names.

And I told Scott beforehand, I didn't look at his article, didn't look at his list, because I didn't want to be influenced by what he wrote. So it's interesting that we still kind of landed here on the same 12 players. Give them a little recap of the first round. That's exactly where I'm going next. So the top 12 picks, Aaron Judge, Shohei Otani, Bobby Witt Jr., Ronald Acuna, Jose Ramirez, Ellie De La Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Terrick Scouble, Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, James Wood, and Zach Wheeler. Let's take our final break when we return into the second round.

We go right after this. Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. We are redrafting the first two rounds for the second half of the season. And Scott, you are up with 13 overall. All right. Well, here's where things start to get fun. Oh, oh. I'm going to do it.

I'm going to pull the peak crow Armstrong cord here to begin round two. I've come a long way on him, obviously. I had him as a bus preseason. I was pretty skeptical of him as much as a quarter of the way through the season, but he just kept it going. I'll still bet against him sustaining the 42 homer pace because the exit velocities are middling. The plate discipline's pretty awful.

pitchers are going to there has to be some amount of pitchers catching up to him at some point but the 45 steel paces on it's it's hard to doubt that and so even if his home run pace is nearly halved from here which i don't think it's going to be that extreme but even if it is there's a case for p. Crowe Armstrong going about in this rage so i'll i'll do it i'll take the peak row armstone plunge at 13 yep he ended the first half with 25 homers and 27 steals, the third player in MLB history to go 25-25 before the break, also averaging 3.9 fantasy points per game. And Chris, you are up with the 14th pick?

I'm going to go with one that I think is just going to make people mad. But I'm going to have faith in the process. I'm going to trust the underlying skill set. I'm going to trust the underlying stats that all say that Fernando Tatis is still one of the absolute best hitters in baseball. and I'm going to go there and maybe it'll keep making me look stupid but I'm you know what

I'm pretty comfortable looking stupid you know I've got a lot of experience in that in my life Is this a controversial pick because I would have made the same pick that's who I had up next So maybe I'm furious

So he like I have Fernando Tatees going in round two But I have him way down at 17 Yeah you and I basically have PCI and Fernandez Tatis flip-flopped. Okay. And here's why. So, yes, the expected stats of Fernando Tatis are around 95th percentile, ex-slug more like 90th percentile.

But you get the idea. They're really high, and he's underperforming them. He's 18th and ex-Woba. For the third straight year. And so this is where pull air rate comes into play, because didn't have access to it the previous two years. We do now. all three of those years, it's in the blue.

Like, he just doesn't optimize the angle off the bat. And that consistently has Fernando Tatis underperforming his expected stats. And it's been especially low this year. It's been the worst of those three years. But I just don't think that's part of his. You know, the one year he had a good poll error rate was 2021. And he was the best player in fantasy. Yeah.

We keep wanting him to recapture that. But I don't think it's going to. I think we have the explanation now for why Tatis is underperforming's expected stats. And I expect the underperformance of the expected stats. Acknowledging that as being true, if all he does is gets back to underperforming the way he was in 20203 or 2024, you'd still expect better than what he's done so far because he's underperforming by more so far this season. And in this instance, he's such an obviously elite talent. that that's one of those things that can flip on a dime,

you know, like he could just start pulling the ball in the air more often or... He could, but a three-year trend. Sure, it might not happen, but... The floor is still really, really high. Well, that's what I was going to say. Like, he's still, obviously, I said I have him all the way down at 17th

versus the 14th where you're taking him. He's still on a 27-home or 35 steel pace. Yeah, that was my next question. Does it matter? he's also on pace for 110 runs scored, you know. 270, 25, 35 with 110 runs. That's probably an early second round pick, I would say. I actually like Tatis quite a bit more in points leagues

because his plate discipline is so much better than the NEPCrow Armstrong for one. Though I think I do still have Crow Armstrong ahead of him in points leagues, don't I? Maybe I don't. No, I have Tatis ahead of Crow Armstrong in points leagues because of that, because the plate discipline, the strike rate especially is so low compared

to some of these power speed types we're getting here in round two, some of which we haven't mentioned yet. All right, so I am up with the 15th pick and I guess I just love pitching now because I'm going to go with Paul Skeens with a 201 ERA, a 0.93 whip over a strikeout per inning.

He also has just four wins in 20 starts this season. He has an average of 3.15 runs of support per game. To put that in perspective, Terrick Scouble has 5.1. Zach Wheeler has 4.9 and Garrett Crouchet has 4.4. So not even close.

Wins are a category and we are drafting for this season. I don't know that the pirates are going to give him much run support moving forward. Do you know what Paul Skeen's record is? It's like 4.9, right? I think 4.8 I saw. It's 4.8. Yeah, that makes me sad.

You want to know... All right, here's a fun stat. Not fun stat for Pittsburgh. Paul Skeens is tied for the major league lead. In number of starts with at least six innings, no more than two runs allowed, and no win. Would you like to know who he's tied with? Mitch Keller. Mitch Keller.

They both have eight such starts. Funny enough, the Giants, the Giants actually have Webb, Verlander, and Rup. Verlander doesn't have a win on the year. They've combined for like 18 starts like that, which is actually kind of bonkers. in its own right. But yeah, the pirates, ladies and gentlemen. I want to say that I have a pitcher 15th where you took Skeens, but it's not Skeens.

I actually have Garrett Crochet a few spots ahead of Skeens now. So does that mean? A couple of problems here. Like, he's part of that quartet I mentioned earlier, but I think he's the clear four for me now. For five of his last six starts to end the first half, five of the six, five innings or less. Yeah.

So he has workload issues that the others don't. He has the lowest strikeout rate. Yeah, strikeout rates relative. By like 2K per nine. And he can't, the pirates aren't kidding many wins. He has four at all. So yeah, I would take crochet over schemes at this point, though. Are you?

It's not ridiculous. Well, you are up, Scott, with the 16th picks. So I guess I'm taking crochet and I kind of already made the case for him. There you go. He's been every bit as good as Scoobel and Wheeler this year. It's just he's within 20 innings of his career high already. And so the reason why he's a few spots behind Scooblo and Wheeler for me is, okay, is that going to cause him to have some hiccups here in the second half

as he builds up innings or exceeds his previous high innings. So that's the one hesitation with Crochet, why he's a few spots behind those others. Crochet, by the way, leads MLB in both innings and strikeouts this season. his ex-ERA last year was 285, his ex-ERA this year, 283, so pretty consistently just awesome. Chris, you are up with the 17th pick. And the highest ranked player on my board, who has not been picked yet,

I guess it's just because of innings, because, well, I guess there's two guys in a row who are the biggest two edges that you can get on your competition at this point. And I'll go with Catel Mark. Oh, wait a second. Wait a second. Oh, you meant to take Citele-Marté?

No, I meant to take Cow-Ralee. Okay. Can we back? Can I back out the crochet? Commissioner, can I back out the crochet pick? Nope, you are locked in. I think Raleigh has to go ahead of Cite, but all right, fine. You just want Cal Raleigh for yourself.

I see your plan here. That's exactly right. Dirty. Am I going to let Scott? I was debating Cal Raleigh. Cal Raleigh over Skeens when I took skeins. That was the big. All right. I'll let Scott talk me into Kyle Raleigh ahead of Cattlemarte. Ah!

Keep sniping me, Chris. Based on what he's done so far, this is way too low. This is what 17th overall? Yeah. Well, I just, I didn't know he was on the board still. Yeah. You can make an argument that Cowrally is the most valuable player in fantasy given the position that he plays and how good he has been. he's on a 60 homer pace. 64 specifically.

Even if he's just a 40 homer catcher who hits 250 and steals 10 bases as he's on pace for and plays more than any other player at the position, that's probably a top 15 player, isn't it? Yeah, I would think so. Now, I mean, obviously he's two home runs away from 40. So, like, I'm penciling him in as the first 50 homer catcher. I think that's a game.

I think that's something would have to go dramatically wrong. But there's a reason why there's never been a 50 homer catcher before. Raleigh will be the first. Things go wrong. It is the most attrition, afflicted position, I guess, aside from pitcher, just talking about the hitter positions. The most attrition, afflicted position is catcher. And obviously, that hasn't been an issue for Rale yet,

but there's still 40% of the season to go. And it is very likely to, not that I'm saying he's going to go on the I-Lness, necessarily, but something is going to happen that maybe we don't even know about that's going to cause him to slump for three weeks and throw off his pace. And he ends up with only 52 homers instead of 64. So that's why, if I thought he was going to get to 64, which by the way would be the most ever for a non, a player without steroids ties, which like, it's crazy to think that a catcher would do that. But if I thought Calioli was actually going to do that, he'd be third, right? The only ones I can justify taking over him are Judge and Otani. And I mean, he's been the second most valuable player in fantasy so far this season.

Yeah. So, yeah. And the one thing I will say is they are being more judicious about his time behind the plate than ever before. He has started 70 games behind the plate. That means he has not, he's appeared in 24 without being the catcher. Last year, it was only 18 games where he didn't appear as a catcher. So they're already being more aggressive with him, as they should be. They need that bat.

They need that bad in the line. It's the only chance they have of making the playoffs is Cowr Alley being in the lineup. So they are cognizant of that. All right, I am up with the 18th pick here and a few different directions I can go. I think I'm just going to play it safe with another high floor Mets player and take Francisco Lindor, who is on pace for 32 homers, 25 steals, right around 100, 100 in terms of runs in RBI. Batting average down a little bit this year, you know, there are some things here.

The barrel rate is down a little bit, the ground ball rate is up, but just in terms of the 25-25 at least expectation year in and year out, I do feel that it is pretty safe here for Francis Gle-Indo. Maybe you guys disagree. I would be more aggressive ranking him for 2026. than for the rest of the season, if that makes sense. It's been almost six weeks, though. He's been really struggling with that toe injury.

But I think it's about healed now. It's about healed, though. I would hope so. It's just, he's been really bad. He's been, I know he was really bad in June. He's been better in July, so we have a little bit, yeah. Hopefully he is getting back on track here. But, Scott, you are up with the 19th pick.

Yeah, I'm fine with your pick. I only have one player ahead of Francisco Lindor, same. Roto, which is what we're doing. And that player is the one that's most likely to make people mad. I'll go ahead and take him. It's Julio Rodriguez. I'm not going to quit Julio Rodriguez.

I think he reminded us just before the break why we shouldn't with that big final series, six for 12, three homers, two steals. That put him, I mean, for as underwhelming as he's been, he's on a 23 homer 28 steel pace, which is nothing to sneeze at. And then you consider, okay, all the stack has data looks about like it's always done for Julio Rodriguez. If anything, the strikeout rates lower. And the history, the history for him in the first half, Carrero PS 737, about what he did this first half. In the second half, Carrero PS 903.

And so I think that last series heading into the break is a foretaste of what's to come in the second half, which is why I'm ranking Julio Rodriguez aggressively. All right, Chris. you are up with the 20th pick. I've got Julio just a little bit lower than this, but there's only one player that we haven't drafted yet that I have ranked ahead of him, and that's Catal Marte. Oh my gosh.

You did it again. I did it again. Can't even follow his own list. I crossed the name off the list. Because I mentioned it. And then you backed it out. Commissioner's screwing me this draft. This is about as high as a player

can rank while being a true zero and stolen bases. But between just being just as a pure hitter, I mean, how many guys are better than Cotel Marte at this point? Is it more than 6, 7 in the entire league

who are better than Qatar Mote? And then adding on that he plays at what is now, I think even including Catcher maybe the weakest position in fantasy, Catele Marte, despite missing nearly 30 games, He's tied for the league lead among second baseman and homers.

He's fourth and runs, ninth in RBI, and he's hitting 290. It's elite four categories superstar production at a position where, at best, you're hoping for two categories from most guys. Even really good players, you're hoping for two, maybe three categories at second base. Ctele-Marte, he doesn't steal any bases. That's the only thing he doesn't do well. And then he gets hurt. That's the other.

Well, for me, it's even less the category production than just, and you kind of said this already, but just I guess to put a finer point on it, it's the clearest advantage you can get at any position except maybe Cal Raleigh a catcher. So I actually have them pretty much right next to each other in rankings. I have Catelle Marte ahead of Tatis, even. It's not the way this draft played out, but only because the commissioner scured me. Scott, you got to pay attention, man. What do you want me say? I'm doing a podcast, all right? You know, personal responsibility.

I have Catelle Marte as a first rounder in head-to-head points, actually. I have 11th. Yeah, 3.8 fantasy points per game for Marte this season. His 961 OPS ranks fifth among all hitters with 250 plate appearances this season. Just need him to stay on the field. Hopefully, no more dinghs here in the second half for Cotel Marte. You know how many hitters are ahead of it? of him in ex-Woba right now?

I would probably venture to say, I don't know, two, three? Three. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shoheyotani, and then Cotel Marte, and Corey Seeger are tied for fourth in the majors. Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye, boy, by, Cory Segar. Yeah, I don't even think you can anymore because he's pretty much just turned it all the way back on. I think the OPS is up over 850 now, so Seeger has turned it back up. 21st overall pick for me. I'm debating a few different players here.

I'm going to go with contract year Schwartz, who is up to 30 home runs, 66 runs scored 69 RBI, nine steals with a 9-23 OPS. The strikeout rate is down. He's hitting the ball harder than ever. In fact, his expected stats are actually better than what he's done so far this season.

He has a 273XBA. Not sure that he'll get all the way up there, but maybe he can hit around 260-ish rest of season. And he's on pace for 50 plus homers, 110 plus runs, NRBI, and 15 steals. Not really depending on the steals, but the home runs and counting stats are just so, so massive. In a points league, I think Kyle Schwerber is probably in the mix for being a first round pick, yeah. Yeah, I came close to doing it in my point. I had him 12th just behind Marte.

I ended up swapping him with my 13th player, Garrett Crochet, just because I felt a little better about that. But yeah, Schwerber even better in points. and I have no problem second round in Roto because he's a monster in three categories and no longer the liability he once seemed in batting average to your trend there, launch angle less steep. Yeah, I mean, Chris made a good point before the show. It's very unlikely he's going to go in the second round of drafts next year

because he'll probably be back to DH only. But while we're treating him as an outfielder, I think this, I have a couple players ahead of him, but I think second round makes sense. He's only made six appearances in the outfield, so he'd need a lot. Unless he signed somewhere this off-season to become a catcher again.

Yeah, right. At least first base. Like, if he could go somewhere and play first, that would help. Yeah, that would be nice. Yeah. So we'll see. Does he have any experience playing first base? He did play some for the Red Sox.

With the Red Sox? Okay, that was right. So you're saying there's a chance. All right, Scott, your last pick here, the 27th pick of the draft. Oh, man. I just feel like I botched this draft. It's going to look so...

22nd, I meant. It's going to look so bad when the results are displayed in Julio Rodriguez winning ahead of Catele-Marté. And the person who made that pick doesn't even agree with it, but whatever. Should have paid attention. Yeah, I guess so. So I think I'm not overlooking anybody.

Further up my list here. I'm going to take Jackson Churio. who's been great. I mean, and maybe not quite up to everybody's expectations, but even in points leagues where his plate discipline is awful, but even in points leagues,

it's surprising how good he's been. I don't have him in my top 24 for points leagues. I left him out, but I do have him for Roto because plate discipline doesn't count, obviously. The other weird thing about Churio is for as good as he's been, the exit velocity readings,

and I've been harping on this since his rookie season. pretty. They're not even just middling like Peacrow Armstrong. They're bad. It was bad. Average exit velocity is like 87. But, you know, at some point the production has to speak for itself.

And I think it's speaking pretty loudly here. I think just from a purified by five perspective, Churio compares pretty favorably to Tatis and Rodriguez, but those, the worst plate discipline, the worst exit velocity readings, I don't think he has the, as, as, as much of a chance of just blowing out expectations in the second half, like maybe those guys could. So that's why Churias a little further behind for me. One thing I would point out with Jackson Chariro that probably explains this is,

if you look at his average exit velocity, 87.9 miles per hour is deeply mediocre. That is a 195th out of 250 qualifiers, according to baseball savant. However, if you sort by eggs of velocity online, drives and fly balls. So taking ground balls out, he jumps up to 101st, right behind Bryce Harper and Michael Bush and Riley Green, guys whose average X velocity is two and a half miles per hour higher. So ultimately, I'm not going to say it doesn't matter how hard you hit a ground ball. It doesn't really matter how hard you hit a ground ball, you know, like that. You kind of rather hit it softer. If anything, especially fast. So that, that

probably, I would guess, explains most of why he performs better than you would expect, given his mediocre overall quality of contact. And at some point, he just keeps doing it. It doesn't matter. Yeah. I'm totally on board with that pick. I was actually debating Schwerber or Cheerio, so I definitely liked that one. He did not make my top 24. He would have made the top 26, probably, but. On pace for 2727, 1010 runs, 105, RBI. It's really good. Yeah. Really, really good here for...

It was much better in the second half last year. I don't know that it's going to be a Julio Rodriguez thing just because it happened once, but if it is... Yeah. It's a good point. All right, Chris, you are up with your last pick, the 23rd pick of the draft. And this is a guy I actually have ranked all the way up at 16th. So I don't know why you guys hate Trey Turner so much, but he is back to being an elite source

of stolen bases. now stolen bases are easier to find than they used to be. But it doesn't really look like we're going to have any like 70 steel guys this season. I'm not sure anybody's really, is anybody on pace for like 60 plus? I don't think so. Ramirez and Cruz are tied for the league lead with 29. So while steals are still very easy to find, Trey Turner's 24 are actually tied for sixth in the majors right now.

And that was the one big question remaining about Trey Turner is could he still be an elite source of stolen bases? Last season, he only had 1921 games. He hadn't had more than 30 since 2021. But this year, he stayed healthy. He has 24 steals. He's on a 40 steel pace again. Close to a 20 homer pace. Tons of runs because he's at the top of a great lineup.

He's probably going to get to 100, 110. 10, probably only 75 RBI, but legitimately, you could say maybe a three and a half. You could round it up to a four category guy. But he doesn't hurt you in any of the five categories, Trey Turner. Not a lot of players you can say that about. So, I mean, you say you have them all the way up at 16, which is, I don't know. I have a hard time figuring that one out. But like, I don't think it's a stretch to put Trey Turner here.

I actually left them out of my top 24 for Pete Alonzo, who I know you left out of your top 24. And so for me, it came down to a couple things. One, I think they're about the same for batting average now, looking at the expected stats for Pete Alonzo. His average X of velocity is almost five miles per hour higher than ever before. So I think they're about even for there. Alonzo's advantage in home runs matters more to me than Trey Turner's

and stolen bases. And Alonzo's RBI pace is batting behind Soto is just, it's like 140 almost. And I'd rather have that than the very good run pace Trey Turner's on. So that's fair. Yeah, that's why I left Turner out, but.

The distinction for me is Turner's not doing anything unexpected for me. Okay. Like I guess the stolen base is, you could say are unexpected but one thing that I pointed at a lot coming into the season was before the hamstring injury last May he was on a 50 steel pace yep and so for me Trey Turner has just stayed healthy and I think is living up to what he

was supposed to do Pete Alonzo has taken a big step forward in a couple of ways not like you mentioned the quality of contact I have a little less faith in that being sustainable maybe that's wrong Trey Turner could get hurt tomorrow and actually I don't know did he make the he didn't make the the All-Star team, did he? I'm not sure. It's unlikely he will make the, it's unlikely he will get hurt

if he didn't make the All-Star game. I guess it's possible. I mean, baseball player injuries off the field are just some of the most bizarre things. Yeah, but he could get hurt in the next week and don't put that out there

in the air. That doesn't need to be. But that's what it comes down to for me is I think he's just stayed healthy and played to what he should have been doing the last couple of years anyway. He's very good. There's actually a shortstop I would take ahead of Trey Turner.

I'm going to take him here. I will not. I am not taking him. I'm taking the name you mentioned already. And I just realized I took three Mets in this draft. Let's go Mets. Let's go Mets. Pete Alonzo, 24th pick of the drafts here.

And, man, he just looks so locked in this season. And he did talk before this year about, you know, looking at things that he did in the post. season and, you know, when he hit that home runoff, Devin Williams last year, and just kind of like trying to replicate those things more. And highest average exit velocity of his career by far, 94.1 average exit velocity. His line drive rate is up. I mean, this just looks like legitimately the best version of Pete Alonzo that we've ever seen all around player. Obviously, he's not going to hit like 50 home runs, but 280 batting average with 35 to 40 homers and

130 plus RBI. That is a pretty, awesome player here and in my opinion worthy of being a top two round player so pete alonzo for me i did have four other players written down here as uh that we just didn't get to honorable mentions i suppose gunner henderson Vlad Jr. He was he was my 21 um gunner henderson was my 22. I had jazz chisholm and manny machado as the other. Vlad i didn't really consider um me neither I just get it don't want to discount the fact of him just going ballistic for a couple of months he He just does that almost not every year, but we know he's capable of doing that.

And if you look at the projections, Vlad comfortably fits in the first two rounds. So I think it's reasonable. I just didn't, I didn't put him in here. One player that you didn't mention who made mine was Mani Machado, who. I mentioned him as an honor.

Okay. Because he's really bouncing back. Best ex-Wob of his career at the break, hitting the ball incredibly hard, improved plate discipline. And already up to like 11 steals, I think, for Manny Machado. He's eight. And he's on pace for 13, which is still great.

But he's only 17th percentile on sprint speed. That's one. I think his max is probably a little higher than his average. I think he might have the biggest gap between when he's trying and when he's not of anyone on the bases. So there were four that I felt like I had to explain away in my article to have it come up. And they are mooky bets, Byron Buxton, Riley Green, and C.J. Abrams. I think it's obvious why we didn't include Buxton, even though he's averaging like four points per game.

Betts I was still tempted to include and actually did in points leagues because the strikeout rate's so low. I kind of just believe the generational talent that he is. He's got to figure it out. But, you know, losing exit velocity and a tough year for hitting is not a good thing. And that's a multi-year trend now. Yeah. And I kind of think this mystery illness before the season

might have really hampered his year. Yeah. It may have. It may have. Yeah. If you want to know more about why I left Green and C.J. Abrams out, you can go check out my article.

All right, a quick recap here again. The first round was Judge Otani and Bobby Witt, Ronald de Cunia, Jose Ramirez, Ellie Dealer Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Terrick Scouble, Juan Soto, Corbyn Carol, James Wood, and Zach Wheeler. And the second round, Pete Crow Armstrong, Fernando Tatis Jr., Paul Skeens, Garrett Crochet, Cal Raleigh, Francisco Linder, Julio Rodriguez, Catelle Marte, Kyle Schwerber, Jackson Trio, Trey Turner, and Pete Alonzo.

We are going to wrap there for Scott and Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify, and we will be back again tomorrow. Oh, 5 p.m. Eastern Time MLB draft talk, FYPD, the Welsh will be here. We'll do all that fun stuff. Bye-bye.

Mount Podcasts.