Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Reds Promote Top Prospect Elly De La Cruz! - Emergency Podcast (6/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:03 Now here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. We've been waiting and waiting. But finally, the Reds are promoting top prospect Ellie Dela Cruz. Welcome in to an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Tuesday, June 6th. Frank Stamfield joined by Scott White, and let's get right into it. Ellie De La Cruz in 38 games at AAA this season was batting 297 with a 398 OBP, 12 homers, and 11 steals. Scott, we know he got even better. in the month of May, where he had nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

Starting point is 00:00:37 And notice, we haven't done an emergency podcast for other top prospects. I think Ellie De LaCruz has kind of elevated himself to another level, right? It seems like he has the opportunity to be very special. He's 6'5, 200 pounds, power, speed. The plate discipline is improving. He's already penciled into play third base in his debut. He's betting cleanup for the Cincinnati Reds. Scott, I'll start you off with two questions here.

Starting point is 00:01:01 What are you expecting? and how good can L.D. LeCruz be? Well, I guess let's start with the second one. Because I think, you know, my thinking on this was about, was similar to yours where, you know, I've kind of been downplaying most prospect call-ups this year because we've gotten burned by so many in recent years.

Starting point is 00:01:25 And I think we're just in a phase right now where, where the learning curve for reaching the majors is just especially steep. And the presumption should be with most prospect call-ups, regardless of their stature that they're going to struggle right away. And it's been a while since we've been in a stage like that. So I think the knee-jerk response is to lose your mind whenever somebody gets called up and throw all the fab at him and then wind up disappointment again. So I've been trying to break that cycle of disappointment and not get caught up in the hype anymore.

Starting point is 00:02:07 But I am going to make an exception for Ellie de la Cruz because I think he's emerged as the best prospect in baseball. And maybe that's some recency bias there. Jordan Walker himself is still considered a prospect. And obviously he falls into the pattern of top prospect callups underwhelming us. So, you know, maybe that's part of the reason why I'm willing to slot Ellie de la Cruz ahead of him now. But it does go beyond that. I mean, it's not clear that we've seen a player before who is capable of doing the sorts of things De La Cruz is. You know, at least since stat cast was introduced in 2015 to measure these things,

Starting point is 00:02:54 we've not seen a player who is capable of doing what he does. he has the hardest hit ball and all of professional baseball this year, majors and minors included. He did have that game where he hit three balls in excess of 116 miles per hour, which is something that's never been done in history by an entire team,

Starting point is 00:03:14 not just a single player. And oh yeah, icing on the cake, two of those three batted balls were home runs, one from each side of the plate. So he's that good from the left side and from the right side. his hits are all rockets, his throws are all bullets, his throws are all bullets, his entire being is a blur on the base paths. He is just a phenomenal talent by every measure.

Starting point is 00:03:46 And so that kind of upside, I think you have to go all out for it. Now, obviously, it doesn't guarantee that he's going to be a success. part of the reason why he wasn't the consensus number one prospect entering the year is because he had that vulnerability to strikeouts. He is tall, as you point out, 65. And so that gives him a big strike zone. And he hasn't always shown the best mastery of it. His career minor league strikeout rate is 29%. But, as you also point out, it's gotten a lot better lately over his first.

Starting point is 00:04:28 first 13 games at AAA this year. Elie de la Cruz had a 33.9% strikeout rate. Since then, it's been a 23.4% strikeout rate, which is good. It's not even really bad anymore if he can continue that. Meanwhile, his walk rate during that same span of time, 25 games, is up near 20%, which is about triple what we've seen from Ellie de la Cruz in the past. So it does appear that over the past four weeks or so, he's turned this corner in terms of his approach

Starting point is 00:05:04 and how discipline he is and what he's choosing to swing at and not swing at. And not surprisingly, his production has taken off during that 25 game stretch. De La Cruz is batted 327 with 11 homers, nine steals, a 1225 OPS. So it's to the point where you look at the, that and wonder what he has left to accomplish in the miners and clearly the reds thought the same thing, which is why he's getting the call. Given the upside, given that the power speed combo could be amazing, and given that there have been a lot of disappointments at the shortstop position this year, I'm going to go ahead and

Starting point is 00:05:47 slot Ellie de la Cruz, eighth at the position for the rest of the season, eighth. That puts him head of 2023 standouts like Nico Horner and Tyro Estrada. It also puts him ahead of legacy plays like Xander Bogartz and Danzby Swanson. But, you know, if ranking obviously helps to determine trade value of players. And I think if you sell Elie de la Cruz any lower than that right now, you're potentially selling his upside way, way short. I don't think it's crazy to say. that if he can avoid the pitfalls of some of these other prospect call-ups,

Starting point is 00:06:30 if he can avoid striking out 35% of the time and batting 220, if things go the other way and he lives up to his potential right away, we're probably talking about L.A. Dela Cruz as a first-pick next year, maybe even a top five pick. That's how high the upside is. You know, Scott, I updated the rankings right before I hopped on here. I'm like, I'm going to be aggressive. I'm going to rank L.E. D.A. Cruz 14th, that short stop. And then Scott comes in here, and he's like,

Starting point is 00:06:55 I've got him up at eight. So yeah, you'll love to see it. The upside is massive. And I'm happy that you pointed out. He's a switch hitter. So hopefully we're not worried about splits. He's going to play every day. The best ballpark in baseball when it comes to home run park factors.

Starting point is 00:07:09 And this is a player that, frankly, he doesn't even need the help of a ballpark as hard as he hits the ball and how far that he hits the ball. But it's obviously something that could just help him a little bit more playing there in Cincinnati in a lineup that, you know, frankly is coming together. Matt McLean has played very well. Jonathan India is having a bounceback season. They've got a couple of their names there. Spencer Steer having a very strong season. So it's all coming together right now for the Cincinnati Reds and that lineup. Obviously, Scott, he is a must add if available.

Starting point is 00:07:37 We've been telling people for nearly a month now to get Ellie De La Cruz on their rosters. He's 81% rostered on CBS. So maybe he's out there in some 10-te-points leagues. 56% rostered in someone like Yahoo, where I know that's a lot of daily lineup leagues, a lot of head-to-head categories. I think regardless of format and regardless of league size got, he needs to be on a roster. So that number, even on Yahoo,

Starting point is 00:08:00 needs to be closer to 100%. Yeah, I would agree. Now, I'm curious because you say you only have him 14th. So you're putting him behind guys like, I don't know, you have him behind Tim Anderson? No, no, I have dropped Tim Anderson lower recently, given his struggles. I have him just behind right now,

Starting point is 00:08:21 Danes v. Swanson and Tommy Edmund. Those are more floor plays, I realize that. So, yeah, if you want to make the upside case for Ellie, he probably should be inside of my top 12. But then you get into like Horner and Estrada, and those guys have been really, really good this year. They have been really good. And, you know, to a certain extent, like,

Starting point is 00:08:40 it's hard to come up with one size fits all rankings. And, like, if you play in a really deep league where you can't, where you can't afford to miss as much, like a miss at a position will really kill you because there's nothing you could do about it on the waiver wire. Then maybe it's not so wise to trade Nico Horner for Ellie De La Cruz. But I think the average player who plays in a smaller league than that and can fall back on somebody at least respectable enough at shortstop if Ellie De La Cruz doesn't pan out, yeah, yeah, I'd say shoot for the upside. Now, it's probably not going to work.

Starting point is 00:09:19 I mean, you're much, I think on the subject of trading, Elie de la Cruz selling is more possible today than buying. Correct. And potentially worth pursuing. I mean, I had some people asking me, you know, it's so ridiculous. I don't even want to say it. But like, let's just say first round types. People were asking if in like a keeper league they should trade this first round type for Ellie de la Cruz. Okay, if that's the kind of return you can get on Ellie de la Cruz,

Starting point is 00:09:56 if the hype is such that somebody out there is willing to bet the entire farm on him, then that's the kind of trade that I think is worth pursuing. But for the most part, for the most part, if you have him, you're just going to enjoy whatever he gives you. And if you don't have him, you're just lamenting that you didn't pick him up because the cost would be too high now. I swear, I texted you before the show, Scott. So that wasn't me. It was probably L.A. D.A. Cruz texting to let you know, how dare you even talk about trading me away?

Starting point is 00:10:33 But that's exactly where I'm going next, Scott. Obviously, we're all excited. And I don't want to pour cold water on this, but he's a prospect and he is human. and we've seen many great prospects fall their first time through the majors. Most notably, Mike Trout is first time around didn't play well. Aaron Judge, first time around did not play well. But that is the, I guess the caliber of upside we're talking about with L.E. Dela Cruz. If you can flip him in redraft, I know you just mentioned, you know, in a keeper league, trying to get like first round value in return for him.

Starting point is 00:11:03 But some people were asking me earlier today, if I can trade L.E. Dela Cruz in a redraft league, what would I be looking to get? So you mentioned you moved them up to eighth at shortstop. What would be the equivalent of that? Are you looking to get another, like, a top 15 or top 20 starting pitcher or like a top 15 or top 10 outfielder in return? Yeah. If you're trying to make that kind of trade?

Starting point is 00:11:25 Yeah, so it would have to be somebody pretty high end like that. So moving him up to, oh, you know what? It's actually ninth at shortstop. I oversold it a bit. It's ninth at shortstop. I was looking at eight. I'm like, I don't think you're going to move him ahead of Bobby Witt or Lindor yet. Right, right, Corey Seeger.

Starting point is 00:11:44 So like, okay, if we're just talking shortstop for shortstop, that's the kind of shortstop I'd trade L.A. Dela Cruz for, translating that to other positions. I mean, look, all those short stops I rank ahead of him are like are players who are being drafted in the first five rounds coming into the year. So it would have to be somebody really high-ends like that. Top 20 starting pitcher. Let's see, who's my 20th starting pitcher.

Starting point is 00:12:13 That would be, that would be Dylan C. Nope, not doing that. Question marks. But somebody, you know, like 18th is Joe Ryan, Max Scherzerz between 15 and 20. That's what I was looking at, too. In that range. Like, that seems like what you should aim for

Starting point is 00:12:33 if you're looking to sell high on L.A. de la Cruz. And I'd be happy to take it if I could. If I couldn't, though, you know, I'm ranking him eighth of shortstop for a reason. I probably just wait to see what he does. And maybe it won't pan out. But, you know, you got to risk it for the biscuit, as they say. The ultimate buy low, sell high, Scott. If you could pull this off right now, would you flip Ellie for Sandy Alcanswer?

Starting point is 00:13:03 Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I'd do that. I noticed you haven't dropped Alcansford down yet. You haven't still at SP4. I dropped him down to SP15, so I've been a little bit quicker to move him down there. I'm going to update the rankings over the next couple of days here as well. So I'm going to be making some more changes.

Starting point is 00:13:18 But again, it's a big day. Ellie De LaCruz, promoted by the Cincinnati Reds. He's already in the lineup. He's playing third base. The plan is for him to play third base and shortstop moving forward. He's batting clean up in the lineup right away. First game in action. So you love to see it.

Starting point is 00:13:31 We're going to wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into this emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. I'll be back later on tonight. the Welsh. Bye bye.

Fantasy Baseball Today - 🚨Reds Promote Top Prospect Elly De La Cruz! - Emergency Podcast (6/6 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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